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Traders Thread - Friday 4th August (TRAD)     

Greystone - 03 Aug 2006 21:58

Greystone - 03 Aug 2006 21:58 - 2 of 38

Hello traders!

In the US tonight, The Dow Jones rose 42.66 points to 11,242.59. The S&P500 added 1.72 points at 1,280.27 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 13.53 points at 2,092.34.

See you in the morning with the latest.....

G.

Greystone - 04 Aug 2006 06:26 - 3 of 38

Good morning traders!

In Asia today, the Hang Seng ended the morning down 13.28 points at 17,035.14, while the Nikkei was recently down 12.78 points at 15,457.59.

Light sweet crude for delivery in September fell 13 cents to $75.33 a barrel from its close of $75.46 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Early broker notes:

GKN UPGRADED TO 'BUY' VS 'HOLD' AT CITIGROUP
COLT UPGRADED TO 'NEUTRAL' VS 'UNDERPERFORM' AT CREDIT SUISSE

Happy Friday!

G.

Druid2 - 04 Aug 2006 07:48 - 4 of 38

Morning all.

hewittalan6 - 04 Aug 2006 07:53 - 5 of 38

Good morning all.
Can anyone give me a definitive answer?
Is a golden cross formed using 50 & 200 day MA or 50 & 200 day EMA?
Thanks,
Alan

optomistic - 04 Aug 2006 08:00 - 6 of 38

MA, the EMA sends the message much earlier but is less reliable.....(IMO) :-)

hewittalan6 - 04 Aug 2006 08:03 - 7 of 38

Cheers, opto.
Got one then. I am not a huge believer in charting but it will be interesting to see if it works 'cos on this stock, I cannot see where the fuel for a bull run will come from.
Alan

optomistic - 04 Aug 2006 08:06 - 8 of 38

Alan, it does not 'work' every time, no method of TA will but it does have a good success rate.

hewittalan6 - 04 Aug 2006 08:09 - 9 of 38

I know opto, but when i look at the chart, it looks like the cross shows a historical bull run, not a future prediction, and that has always been my argument about charting - it shows historical trends!!
Anyway, if it works keep following it, I'm just too stupid to work it all out and too lazy to read up about it!!
(the chart is HYC by the way).
Alan

optomistic - 04 Aug 2006 08:19 - 10 of 38

Been a nice move through July Alan, may come back a little from this level don't you think? Then restart the climb if the indicator is accurate on this occassion.
Good luck

hewittalan6 - 04 Aug 2006 08:25 - 11 of 38

Made a mint on this 9makes up for some of the other dross).
thanks for the good luck bit.
Alan

little woman - 04 Aug 2006 09:03 - 12 of 38

Good Morning all

Much to my disappointment, I have short UKX

gekkko - 04 Aug 2006 12:13 - 13 of 38

buy RTR as these are gonna fly, day traders only

cynic - 04 Aug 2006 12:16 - 14 of 38

HYC ...... I'll ask the same Q as I asked yesterday ..... If sp is already miles above golden crossing, why should it rocket again from that level?

hewittalan6 - 04 Aug 2006 12:17 - 15 of 38

I'll give you the same answer.
Chartists tell me the crossing point is irrelevant.
I don't even pretend to understand charting.
I never said it would. I actually said I couldn't understand how it could!!

Greystone - 04 Aug 2006 12:35 - 16 of 38

Midday Market Roundup

cynic - 04 Aug 2006 12:40 - 17 of 38

Alan ..... thanks for that illuminating answer .... lol! ...... Will try to get a better answer for you from my "chart whizz" but he's not back from holiday until early next week ..... FYI, RSI is now about 81, which conversely indicates heavily overbought, so make of that what you will

hewittalan6 - 04 Aug 2006 12:45 - 18 of 38

Just adds to my cynicism on charting, really.
i am desperate to believe in it, as it seems a lazy mans answer to investing, but I can't get my head around it!!!

2517GEORGE - 04 Aug 2006 12:49 - 19 of 38

Anyone know what's happening @ SPT, normal daily volume 3-4m, yesterday 29.85m and so far today almost 11m.
2517

cynic - 04 Aug 2006 13:13 - 20 of 38

I understand something trends and supports and resistances, but the esoteric stuff I leave to my "whizz" who is pretty hot on these things

little woman - 04 Aug 2006 13:58 - 21 of 38

Just as well I switch from short to long UKX earlier. Just closed - would like to short, but too unpredicatable at the moment.

I find the charts aren't following the rules at the moment so I am trading on what I see rather than what I think.

Greystone - 04 Aug 2006 17:12 - 22 of 38

End-of-day Market Roundup

Have a great weekend everyone!

Stan - 04 Aug 2006 17:56 - 23 of 38

Thanks G, 22 posts on here today....things are looking up.

cynic - 04 Aug 2006 19:02 - 24 of 38

What is the difference between EMA and DMA or are they synonymous?

hewittalan6 - 04 Aug 2006 19:28 - 25 of 38

Absolutely no idea, cynic.
Still learning the basics after all these years, me.
Every days a school day.

soul traders - 04 Aug 2006 19:36 - 26 of 38

I'm glad I didn't stake my life on charting this week - at the end of last week the DJIA and FTSE both seemed to cross every moving average from 15 right up to 180 days in what looked to my inexperienced eyes like a very favourable bull pattern - and they still slumped this week!

I prefer to pick my stocks based on fundamentals (plus a healthy dollop of wishful thinking) and just rely on the charts to support my opinion when I feel that things may be looking cheap.

Schoenes Wochenende.
ST.

cynic - 04 Aug 2006 20:13 - 27 of 38

du auch!

Melnibone - 05 Aug 2006 14:08 - 28 of 38

Cynic asked:
What is the difference between EMA and DMA or are they synonymous?

A DMA is simply the Average price of the DMA that you are charting.
eg the Average of the last 200 days price for a 200 DMA.
So each day's price action has equal weighting

An EMA (Exponentially Weighted Moving Average),
puts more emphasis on the recent price action.
You use a formula that alters each day's figure to give more weight to the
recent action when the EMA is plotted on to your chart.

Up to you which you want to use, a real average over your chosen period,
or an average that is skewed towards the more recent price action.

Hope that helps.

Stan - 05 Aug 2006 16:19 - 29 of 38

Melnibone,

Your name used to be on here quite often as i remember.

What happend to you if i may ask.

You made a lot of sense if i recall.

cynic - 05 Aug 2006 16:37 - 30 of 38

many thanks for the explanation ..... DMA will suit me very well; i can understand that!

Melnibone - 05 Aug 2006 16:37 - 31 of 38

Hi, Stan.

I've been posting charts and views in the Traders' Room, but might knock it
on the head now. Most folk there seem to be scalpers, so there doesn't
seem to be any interest anymore in medium term trend trading.
Rarely get a response or an alternate view nowadays.

Not knocking anyone, mind, it's just the way it is. Brian Trayda used to
run a good Pivots thread, but he kicked that into touch a few months back,
if you remember, as well.

Harlosh started a great Swing Trading thread, but that seems to have died
a death as well.

Maybe it's just the wrong place for that style of trading/investing.
I'll keep an eye on this Investor's Room thread, in future, and maybe
post something up in here if I see a need to chip in with a different
view.

Melnibone - 05 Aug 2006 16:38 - 32 of 38

You're welcome, Cynic, glad I could help.

optomistic - 05 Aug 2006 16:53 - 33 of 38

Welcome back Melnibone, look forward to your future postings 'over here'
opto

Melnibone - 05 Aug 2006 17:46 - 34 of 38

Blimey, I've got more interest and response here, in an hour, answering a
question, than I've had on my NDX/UKX/Eustox50 thread in the other room in
the past month. :-)

Perhaps I've been posting in the wrong place?

optomistic - 05 Aug 2006 18:13 - 35 of 38

Must be dull over in the Traders Room Melnibone!

cynic - 05 Aug 2006 18:15 - 36 of 38

melni* ..... confess about the only thread i follow on traders is that written daily by playboy on indices

Melnibone - 06 Aug 2006 10:04 - 37 of 38

Cynic, if you want the Indice information on that thread, then you
can go to the source and get it complete with charts on the following
link

Link to Ed Downs

Have a look at the charts and commentary I've been posting on the
' NDX UKX Eustox50' thread if you want an alternative view on Indices.

Click on the 'Recent' tab at the bottom of the thread, or you'll end up reading
commentary from last year from the beginning of the thread which is out of
date now.

Tell me if you think any of it is useful to you and maybe of use here.

Stan - 07 Aug 2006 10:02 - 38 of 38

Melnibone,

"Perhaps I've been posting in the wrong place?"

....You said it -)o

I don't subscribe to the traders side so i don't know what it's like over there.
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