its in an upward trend expect around 50+ in short term
it is a divident paying company and has show very good growth

do research before you do anything

Pardon????????

if i was not clear last time porky, look now its 58 was higher :)

Got into TNO on friday I feel this will be a strong performer this year as more co's fail.
2517

After comparing TNO with BEG and VTS I have decided to invest in TNO. On fundermentals TNO and BEG seem very alike with low gearing and same yield and cover values. VTS gearing at 76% was a concern in todays climate. The only advantage that BEG have is they are more exposed to insolvency work, but TNO have increased this area by acquisitions and should generate over 20% of business from this area.

When you look at the graphs I noticed that BEG have increased 75% from the low and VTS up 40% with TNO only 10% up on it's low. So they should have some catching up soon.

Certainly need to have some exposure to this sector, with the UK economy looking far from rosy for the next 12/18 months.

Welcome aboard spitfire43, your last sentence was my view exactly several weeks ago, at that time I could have bought BEG around 103p ish & VTS around 95p, however I chose TNO and they have barely moved, so yes some catching up to do hopefully.
2517

Take a look a the gragh for TNO, BEG and YTS below. You will notice that TNO had a dead cross in early 2008 and BEG in June 2007 (50ma moves below 200ma) which is a sell signal. But both now show a golden coss recently (50ma moves above 200ma) which is a buy signal. No such golden cross on VTS yet.

A golden cross can often indicate the start of a long bull run.

If sold in Jan 08 on the dc the sp was around 54p ish, and if bought on the gc May 08 the sp was around 57.5p ish, between the dc & the gc a low of only around 49.5p ish was seen, so may not have been worth selling on the dc, remains to be seen if buying on the recent gc was worth while. Buying the gc of sept 06 was certainly profitable. Thanks for the charts spitfire43, ps I know just a bit more than diddleysquat about charts, wish I knew more. Good luck
2517

I used to know diddleysquart about charts but now trying to learn more, I think they are a good tool for a back up to the fundies. It's typical that as soon as I buy into TNO the sp drops 0.25p, but good volumes today with 62k buys against 3.5k sells.

See article below from the Independent, which isn't that surprising in todays economic environment. Must rub off on TNO at some stage me thinks......

Major credit insurer predicts 20 per cent rise in firms going bust

By James Thompson
Tuesday, 1 July 2008

The credit insurance giant Euler Hermes has upgraded by more than 10 per cent its forecast for the number of UK companies that will hit the buffers this year.


Fabrice Desnos, its UK chief executive, said it forecasts that there will be about 23,400 corporate insolvencies across all sectors in the UK this year, a increase of between 18 per cent and 20 per cent on last year's 19,484 figure.

But just six months ago, Euler Hermes was forecasting that there would only be an 8 per cent increase in corporate failures in 2008 in the UK. The figure compares to a forecast of a 15 per cent increase in corporate insolvencies worldwide in 2008, compared to last year.

Mr Desnos said there were a number of factors behind its gloomy forecast for the UK, such as banks not being willing to prop up struggling businesses, rising inflation and falling supply and demand for goods and services.

"Bank support is more difficult to secure. There is no escape route, you will not find a private equity company or a management buy-out," he said.

"Supply and demand have been hit quite strongly in all directions. The supply of credit has reduced dramatically and essentially from banks." Euler Hermes is the UK's biggest supplier of credit insurance to companies, such as retail suppliers which take out insurance to protect themselves against the risk of non-payment.

In particular, Mr Desnos said that the UK retail and construction sectors would be hit the hardest. "Definitely retail and construction are the ones we are most concerned about. And it is the companies around these sectors, such as in haulage, that will [also] be hit," he said.

Furniture retailers, such as ScS, have blamed the "unexpected and sudden withdrawal of credit insurance from the market", for its financial woes, although many other small to mid-sized retailers have had their suppliers' insurance cover cut.

But he stressed that Euler Hermes is still providing the same amount of cover to companies in the UK as it was six months ago, but hinted that it was being more selective about who it insures and the levels it provides. "We are just trying to pick the winners and losers," said Mr Desnos.

Euler Hermes, which has a 36 per cent share of the UK non-food retail market, has billions of pounds of cover in UK retail and provides cover to tens of thousands of suppliers to trade with non-food retailers.

good trading update today, see below

Tenon Group Plc. said it expects full-year results to be comfortably in line with expectations and that it sees continued progress in growth and profits.

The company, a national adviser dedicated to entrepreneurs, said its acquisitions have been fully integrated and that they were performing well.

Results for the year to June 30 will be announced on Sept. 11.

I see that yesterday Daniel Stewart have started coverage of TNO with a buy rating, no forecast figures yet but will be intersting to see them. I thought the trading update was very positive, so would expect to see some upgrades soon. A positive start this morning up 0.25p with one purchase, how long will it take for the market to catch on.

Have just been looking at BEG results which were slightly down, and the sp fell at first but has since recovered. They said the second half was much stronger than the first, I think the sp is anticipating a much stronger performance, because they are on a current PE = 27, with 21 for 2009 and 16 for 2010. I wish I had brought at 119p, but feel at 166p now, that I missed the boat.

2517GEORGE

Have found the statement released by Daniel Stewart yesterday, makes interesting reading and says gives pretty much the same sentiment as we have. See below -

Daniel Stewart said that having been impressed with Tenon management, it is further encouraged by Thursday's statement. The broker said it believes the company's wide geographic coverage and strong presence in the business recovery market will stand it in very good stead during the ongoing downturn. Daniel Stewart highlighted the discrepancy between the valuations of Tenon -- PE ratio of 8.7 times June 2009 -- and Begbies Traynor Group Plc. -- 20.1 times April 2009. The broker said that whilst it believes the latter is a high quality business that will reap the rewards of the rising number of business failures, the same can be said of Tenon. Daniel Stewart said it does not believe the very significant discount to Begbies Traynor is justified.

spitfire43, couldn't agree more, TNO appears to have been left behind somewhat for the time being, I believe around 25% of TNO income is derived from insolvency work (BEG around 75%). I chose TNO over BEG (107ish at the time) hindsight tells me I bought the wrong one, that said I firmly believe TNO will start the catch-up process soon.
2517

I was playing with some forecast figures, and came up with a EPS of 6.65p for the full year, the consensus is 5.4p. And my figure was without taking account of a increase of insolvency work, I just used past results as a guide. So hopefully we should see some upgrades now.

Must admit I'm considering increasing my holdings, if nothing else I would feel safe holding these after the trading update.

Increased holdings today, the sp seems to be starting to move a tad, well that was before I brought some more.

I noticed that TNO have a strong institutional following with all the top 7 holdings above 3%, and JP Morgan topped up in the past week.

sp still slowly moving up, hopefully the start of a re-rating.

good buying volumes Friday after a buy tip in investors chronicle.

see below an aticle in the Telegragh over the weekend, no surprises really, it just confirms what we know is in the process of accuring.

The number of companies that have been placed in administration in the past three months has jumped 60pc compared with last year, official insolvency statistics reveal.

Business recovery experts said the dramatic rise was a sign that the economic slowdown was taking hold.

They warned of a similar jump in company liquidations by the end of the year when the administrations were wound down.

advertisementThe Insolvency Service said that between April and June there were 3,560 liquidations, up 12pc compared with the first three months of the year and a 15pc increase on the second quarter last year.

Receiverships, often initiated by the high street banks and involving businesses that are at least three years old, have also more than doubled.

Nick Wood, recovery and reorganisation partner with accountants Grant Thornton, said banks and major accountancy firms were gearing up for a significant flow of work in the autumn.

"The negative sentiment expressed in a huge range of economic indicators is now feeding through to the real economy, with businesses that a year ago had been able to paper over the cracks now being fully exposed. Unfortunately, this feels like just the beginning," he said.

Geoff Carton-Kelly, head of restructuring and recovery at Baker Tilly, the accountancy firm, said: We expect about 15,000 company insolvencies in 2008, 20pc higher than in 2007, at a rate of over 280 companies per week.

"A sharp drop in discretionary spending is having a direct impact on the corporate insolvency figures, with pubs, clubs and other leisure companies featuring highly among those companies going in to liquidation as well as property developers and associated businesses who are finding life very challenging in the current environment."

The Insolvency Service said the liquidations represented 0.6pc of all active companies.

TNO up 0.75p, with no transactions, so could be another reason.

I have just checked back for transactions for August, which are 1.1m buys against 0.438m sells so far. So I would hope that the sp is starting to reflect this buying pressure.

Could the sp be on the move now.

Looking at the 1 year chart with the sp at 60p now, we had a golden cross at the end of July, this followed an earlier one at the end of May. The next resistance level is at 62.5p which was in November 2007.

Finals are due to be reported 11th September.

Results released today, at first glance they may not look to exciting but when you look at operating profit which is well up, and adjusted EPS of 6.11p (not including amortisation) against basic EPS of 4.69p. I believe the benefits should be seen this next financial year.

Having said this, I will keep a close year on market reaction to results.

See below...........

Tenon Group Plc., a national adviser dedicated to entrepreneurs, posted a higher pretax profit as turnover rose versus last year.

For the year ended June 30, 2008, the group reported a pretax profit of 12.4 million pounds compared with 12.3 million a year ago while revenues increased to 160.3 million from 136.7 million.

'With our financial and management strength we are very well placed to take advantage of the opportunities we expect to arise in the current market conditions and to continue to invest in the future of our business,' chief executive Andy Raynor said in a statement.

He added the company remains very ambitious for increased market presence, greater sales focus and further acquisitions.

Tenon Group also recommended an increased dividend of 1.4 pence per share, up 17 percent from the 1.2 pence paid in 2007.

See broker comment below.........

full-year results which prompt both Charles Stanley Securities and Numis Securities to reiterate their "buy" recommendations. Charles Stanley says the results, which came in ahead of its expectations, may prompt modest upgrades after the analyst meeting. The broker has a 75 pence target price on Tenon. Numis notes that Tenon's 19 percent increase in underlying EPS to 6.1 pence surpasses its expectation of 5.6 pence. The broker says it expects to increase its forecasts by about 7 percent, and has increased its target price to 81 pence from 77.

Article from todays Times. see below...............

There was a time when Tenon, the tax advisory and corporate restructuring specialist, looked sorely in need of its own services.

After a period of vigorous expansion it was one of three AIM companies floated at the turn of the decade to consolidate smaller accountancy firms it was left with debt four times that of its stock market value and a 114 million post-tax loss. But over the past five years it has got to grips with working capital, paid down debt and consistently produced double-digit gains in sales and profits.

Those virtues were on display in yesterdays full-year results: turnover up 17 per cent, earnings up 19 per cent, the dividend raised 17 per cent and net debt down to 9.1 million. Revenues from corporate finance rose 62 per cent: a figure to put investment banks to shame.

That strength will be difficult to sustain, as will Tenons so-far resilient sales of personal financial services. The counterweight is provided by the recent growth through acquisition of its corporate recovery practice where revenues are running at 40 million, making Tenon the same size as the better-known Begbies Traynor, and giving it ready leverage to economic downturn. The recent retrenchment of Grant Thornton and BDO Stoy Hayward from its niche advising private entrepreneurial companies should also help.

At 58p, up p, or eight times this years earnings, buy on weakness.

Today and yesterday it's starting to tick up now.

Huge volume today 390k buts and 140k sells.

Are investors finally seeing the opportunity here?

Another day of good volumes, 515k buts against 116k sells, and sp nearly at 60p now.

Things are looking up..........

I think the reason for the rising sp is a buy recommendation in Investors Chronicle which I haven't seen.

Price 3.5p up now to 61.5p

With 2.7m buys against 193k sells.

Just noticed a very good buy update from Numis dated 12/09/08. See below -

2008 profit = 18.4m and EPS = 7.0p

2009 profit = 20.1m and EPS = 7.6p

We should see plenty more upgrades during the year. imo

A good article in shares today, which says Tenon are fast catching up with Begbies. Tenon should generate 40 million of Recovery work against 45 million for Begbies in this financial year, but Begbies still have better margins. But with Tenon on a PE of 9.4 against Begbies 21.1, Charles Stanley says the gap looks to large and have a 75p price target which would give a PE of 13.

Huge buying volume today yet sp remained unmoved, this can't last.

This weeks Share mag ran a sector report on speciality and consumer finance, and concluded with two buys, one was Provident Financial and the other Tenon.

There was nothing new to report, but they did highlight the PE difference between Bagbies at 19.3 and Tenon at 9.5, which is too large even with better margins at Begbies.

Worth looking at following link which includes comments from Carl Jackson (Head of Business Recovery Tenon) . Which makes me more confused with the recent weakness in share price.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/3275282/Business-failures-rocket-as-banks-call-in-the-receivers.html

BEG was also down, but that may be partly due to 7.8m more shares being released.
Everything seems to be dragged down in this market. Looks like TNO is no exception, but I would still expect them to produce good results, so may be worth buying before that in anticipation.

I'm looking to hold for 12/18 month's, would think the results will be very strong during this time, and we should see a re-rating to reflect this.

It's tempting to buy more but I have already tipped in twice, saying that the low 40s might tempt me.

I had wondered why the price was weak the week before last, when it drifted down to 48p. The answer is that Polar capital forager fund ltd had been selling 500k shares, and now hold 9.445.528. At least the stock has been placed now, and we can see a recovery to 53.5p.

I noticed that Russell McBurnie Finance Director brought 20,200 at 48.495p, taking advantage of the depressed sp.

I have read so much about the increase in business failures, I would imagine that the recovery division will be well ahead of expected forecasts. I know I have said this before, but now the stock overhang has gone, the sp should start to move.

Plenty of selling today, over 1 million against 45k buys, but price held up well which is a good sign. One sell trade for 20k at 16:10 showed at 34p, a mistake I would hope or someone will be very unhappy with there market maker.

About an 18 month low atm.
2517

Any particular reason? I thought this was meant to be one of the safer ones along with BEG? I don't hold at present, but watch both of them for possible entry point.

HARRYCAT----I've not seen anything, I did hold earlier this year but sold at a small profit, like you I watch BEG (well off their year high) as well as TNO, and this is supposed to be their sort of environment so the sp should be going the other way.
2517

My guess is that this is only going to attract any interest when results are due to be released. There doesn't seem to be any news otherwise which will make this more attractive to investors. BEG seems to be the safer bet, imo.

There has been more selling this week, but I can't find out why, as mentioned before this company should do very well in this economic climate. They were tipped in the IC today as a buy at 51p, so this must be the reason. lol.

Begbies trading statement today states that Corporate finance division operating losses in the first half at 1.0 million pounds, significantly worse than earlier expectations.

Tenon's Corporate Finance position is 7% of company, the other divisions are as follows.

Personal Financial advice = 33%
Business taxation and advisory = 23%
Turnaround and recovery = 19% *
Accounts and Audit = 12%
Corporate Finance = 7 %
Outsourcing = 6 %

* Turnaround and recovery could be 25% + of business now.

Bob Morton increasing his stake in TNO.

sp looks way oversold for a business thriving on the increasing insolvencies.

Highly cash generative as well.

Agree it looks very oversold, I should have sold weeks ago at my stop/loss, but human nature being what it is !

New years resolution - Always sell at stop/loss and be happy too.

managed a small top up at 37p, will add a few more if it dips again.

Only 20% of TNO revenue comes from insolvency work, so although that part of the business is forecast to grow in 2009, the rest, including accounting, business services & speciality financing may not be so good.

looked a bit stronger today, plenty of buys as well.

At least you are in good company, Bob Morton Chairman brought 250.000 at 36.25p he should know a undervalued share price. If nothing else it gives you a great place to set the stop/loss.

Not sure what has caused all the buying, maybe they have had a mention somewhere.

can't see any press related mentions.

It'll be interesting to see if the sp. falls back on Monday, I have a suspicion it might.

The market was expecting some selling pressure today, and marked TNO down 0.75p before open. But instead we have some healthy buying again, up 6% to 48.75p.

There is no doubt that parts of the business have slowed, Begbies last trading said that Corporate Finance had almost stopped in the last 2 month's, fortunately TNO have only 7% exposure to this. And I would expect them to re-deploy staff to Business Recovery, to make up for shortfall elsewhere.

Should see a good bounce today, as this is the only positve trading update I can find today. See below............

Tenon Group PLC, the AIM quoted advisers to entrepreneurs, will announce its
results for the 6 months ended 31 December 2008 on 18 March 2009.

The Group has continued to perform in line with expectations and prospects
remain encouraging for our broadly based business.

Excellent growth has been generated in our Recovery and related service lines.
We expect the phasing of the downturn in the economy to continue to benefit
these services and compensate for the effects upon parts of our corporate
finance and financial services activities.

Cash management performance continues to be strong. Investments in the growth of Recovery, working capital and in debtor payment periods have been carefully
controlled. Building on the success of our earlier benchmarking initiatives,
further efficiency measures are currently being implemented and will result in
an improved cost base.

Chief Executive, Andy Raynor said:

"Tenon continues to thrive by providing services that are relevant to all
economic circumstances, that are in demand and that are of high value. This is a
firm base from which to make further progress."

Profit warning.

A business run by Chartered Acountants; what a disgrace. More bad news to come but Morton stays on. Will he repay his fee and what about Raynor. Accounts to be restated..........Heard it all before. How can you respect people who treat shareholders with contempt.

..RSM Tenon shares plunge 29pc on profits warning

By Helia Ebrahimi | Telegraph – 48 minutes ago
......
Troubled auditor RSM Tenon faces a crisis after a profit warning drove its shares down 29pc - leaving investors calling for an emergency rights issue.

RSM on Monday saw the resignations of Andy Raynor, chief executive, and, Bob Morton, chairman, as the firm revealed it may have to restate its accounts. Mr Morton, who holds 8pc of the firm, will stay on as an independent director.

The news led Crispen Odey RSM's second-largest shareholder to attack events at the business as "shocking". He added RSM had been a company that was "out of control" and now in need of £15m of new equity.

RSM, which has 50,000 customers including the British Government, now faces a potential covenant breach over its £88m debt pile. It has also launched a full review into how accounts misjudged its debts and credits, leaving it on alert to swing from a £6m profit to a possible £10m loss.

The fall in the shares, which closed at a nine-year low of 5.88p, mean RSM now has a market value of less than a quarter of its debts. The company said it was in talks with lenders Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY.L - news) over restructuring its loans.

Adrian Martin, who was promoted to executive chairman from a non-exec role, said the board could not allow the situation to continue deteriorating and were forced to push for changes. Mr Martin is a former managing partner of rival BDO-Stoy Hayward, and has already enlisted former colleague Jeremy Newman as a consultant to help the business recover.

Adrian Gardner, who was brought in as finance director in October in the first wave of the shake-up, said financial assumptions at RSM had been "too stretchy".

Revenue is expected to be down 10pc from £240m, said Mr Gardner, who added this did not include any re-calculations on prior assumptions in the 2011 accounts.

RSM, an “award winning company” that operates across audit, advisory, risk and financial management, could now be vulnerable to clients moving firms. RSM has been a strong advocate for new regulation to challenge the dominance of the Big Four auditors. But according to a rival accountancy company, “today’s news is likely to confirm companies’ faith in the bigger firms”.

Mr Martin strongly denied this - insisting there was no read-across in clients’ faith in RSM’s work and the firm’s management of its own accounts and risks.

RSM pays £4m of interest a year and has a debt-to-earnings covenant that prevents it from having more than three times leverage. In July the company also has to pay back part of its overdraft and long term loans - meaning a reduction of £38m at the end of June.

“RSM used to be a series of partnerships,” said Mr Odey. “These partnerships cared about costs. When they went, people went soft on costs and made questionable acquisitions. There is no reason why a company with £245m of sales shouldn’t make margins of 10pc