Oh bugger

The graph says it all. No comment.

In The Times today:

Tiddler to watch

Western Canadian Coal, the AIM-listed miner, has put itself up for sale after announcing a strategic review to maximise shareholder value. The shares rose 7p to 63p, or 12.5 per cent, yesterday. The shares were trading as a high as 116.5p until a warning in November that the weak US dollar would cost it $50 million in full-year sales.

Also this mention:

Western Canadian Coal, the AIM-listed mining group, has launched a strategic review that could lead to a sale of the business. Some analysts believe that the company would be worth more than $1 billion (£492 million). (The Sunday Telegraph)

One of three purchases this am,and the only one to tread water,still this is more
medium term and a chance to join in the coal bonanza. They had an excellent RNS
and it tended to force my hand a little as i had a 130p order in, but ended in paying 141p. Still an awful lot of upside to this company and i feel very comfortable
with it.
cyril

Hitting all time high.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200803260701047518Q
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200804010700342135R
cyril

Market responces positivelyto the latest update.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200804020700402826R

Now here's a gift horse imho?
$220-90 =C$130 is 65* 3.7m = 233m for a company with a M/Cap 0f just
170m.
Also CBM which has shares and options of 42% which is valued at 91m
dyor, but they look no brainers to me?
cyril

Up 15% on the day, yet little interest?
cyril

Over 2 now.
cyril

Up again this am, but look at CBM and the trades. Has stock and options up to
42% of WTN, real momentum with these 2 companies.
aimo
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200804070701417213R
From CBM's RNS, WTN valued at 188p for 42%, by my calc's thats approx
4 and presently trading at a offer of 216p, CBM at 124.5p. Seems clear that these 2 companies have some way to go to reach a fair price?
aimo
cyril

These 2 companies have had an excellent day.
CBM up 36.8%, 42p to 156p.
WTN up 18.8% 39p to 246p.
Maybe more tomorrow, after profit taking?
cyril

With CBM valuing WTN at 188p this am for 42% of holding, then the 18.8%
rise takes that figure to 222p for their WTN holding alone. With the major miners
about to announce $300/ton then these figures will soon look silly,not sure how far
these will go, but imo still quite away?
cyril

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23500477-601,00.html
Could be very interesting am tomorrow?
cyril

Predictable SP, profit taking along with mm's perhaps trying shake a few out.With
the latest news on Coking Coal prices i can't see this staying at these levels?
aimo
cyril

Breaking out to new highs, kicking myself as i almost topped up on recent low.
As PP stated coal, coal and more coal (black gold).
cyril

Positive looking capital raising.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200804251400181530T
cyril

http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/coal-prices-surge/1277
cyril

Up over 12% in Canada,at CN$4.68 = 2.33p
cyril

Up another 6%+ to CN$4.99 around 250P.
cyril

Trading at 253p.
cyril

Niceonecyril, can i congratulated you, in 2 months you have doubled your money
(up another 10% in Canada trading at 285p),shame no one else bothered?
cyril
ps, to quote PP, coal, coal and coal

niceonecyril
Well done now get some SER. and IVE

Hit can$5.98 = 302p with over 5m shares traded so far, wonder what it
will open up at tomorrow?
Driver almost bought IVE the other day on news, now its fallen back a little i.m
interested, just waiting for FEP to issue RNS hoping for 40p, i'll take another look at SER but can only hold so many.
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200805080701369391T
316P at present, wonder what Canada will make of the news?
cyril

Going strong again in Toronto....breaking highs and looking promising.

Yes up at 3 28p, almost topped up this am but chose EEN.
cyril

Going strong again in London. Would we see the 4 mark I wonder?

Ticking up slowly as we speak....go go go WTN!!!!

WTN 431p so it went?
cyril

well done cyril....u r having some great picks.

any tips at present?

Scott why yes, i'm thinking of PRL and PURE,
PRL is investing in CDN and holds up to 15m shares and is raising funds at present to mounting a take over of GCM.
PURE is an interesting play which produces a sweetener and is natural, so great for diabetics and those interested in healthy diet and weight loss. Well worth checking out?
cyril

4th Q results brought forward, now to be released later today, holding a
conference on Thursday?
CBM have their 46% up for sale,maybe just maybe?
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200806180700079539W
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200806180700079542W
Looks likely a sale in the not to distant future?
imho
cyril

All time high on the TSX at $9.6 which works out at 481p, are Canadians sniffing
an offer?
cyril

Finshed at $10.6 on the TSX = 5.29p,just watch CBM and CLN go in the
morning.
cyril

Too bad I have to sell WTN at a loss...the trend is weakening.

Sorry to hear you had to sell, and to rub salt in your wounds, its up 6.4% to
3.59p. Its a bear market at this minute and takes a lot of nerve to hold, best wishes for the future.
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200808140700062971B
Not quite as good as hoped for?
cyril

Well i'm back into theses today,and here's the reason why.
From yesterdays AGM all 100pc of production from this year has been sold at record prices.
So thats us sorted until April.
Then we have contracts for 100pc for a further 3 to 5 years it is just the price we need to agree.
What is the lowest price for coking coal in 2009 you can see happening.Some say 350 dpt others say 300dpt and the doom mongers say 250dpt.
Based on 5m tonnes in 2009 at 250dpt and costs of a high 120dpt THAT IS 650M DOLLARS PROFIT ON THE WORST SENARIO.
And its up for sale with several companies doing due diligence?
cyril

After dropping to 250p its recovered in Canada and finished up over 11% at 290p
cyril

WTN will go to 100p

Why?

The STRONG US dollar is a downfall for the miners, my friend.

That's OK then. It won't last long.

LR2 WTN's contracts are for 100% at above US$280 so the dollar strength actually increases its value, so you must give short change to such nonsense. With a projected 3.55m/tonnes output at a cost of(which is expected to reduce as the hard rock problem which has been one of the major causes of a high extraction rate is almost finished) US$120 leaves a very nice figure of "US$525M PROFIT", this year. It also has 50% of the Belcourt Saxon properties which are expected to add
quite a sizable sum to the bottom line.
Here i post a copy by a very astute investor on his account of the drop,

WTN's current SP and that of most commodity stocks is more a reflection of the overall world mood at the moment, rather than some indication of present intrinsic value or future expectation of a particular company.

Everything runs in cycles of relative hot and cold. There was a sea-change in the fundamental valuation of coal stocks earlier this year from the growing realisation of a new era in energy, which oil has spearheaded for some while and with coal eventually catching up. The belated change with coal has come in a much more condensed period and it takes time for everyone to adjust, so a degree of consolidation is expected before moving on and even welcome as a firmer base for the future. Stick traders into the equation and you have volatility from the push-pull effect of different agendas, with one group getting the upper hand for awhile and then the other, often during the same day!

The activity above has little relationship with the value placed on WTN by a potential suitor, which will depend upon their assessment of its worth to them over at least the next decade. The due diligence involved can be more time-consuming than the typical impatient trader or investor is ever able to cope with. The punters think only what is best for them personally and when the ducks don't line up as quickly as they want, they lose heart and become open to views that undermine their confidence.

Meanwhile, millions of dollars are now accumulating on WTN's bottom line from its existing lucrative contracts, half of which is earmarked for CBM, with evidence from reliable sources that future revenue will be of similar scale or better. Whatever happens to the world economy in the near period that might temporarily soften the demand for energy and commodities in general, there's no escaping the fact that a world population growing at the rate of a new Britain every year will never lose its need for basic resources.
At present the SP is recovering in Canada and is just 4.8% down.
cyril

At present WTN trading CDN$4.6 = 2.39p, exchange 52p.
cyril

Well done cyril (post 48)

You need to ignore idiots such as hlyeo. He is the same prat who'll be telling you that WTN is worth 20/share in a bull market.

I'm a trader not an investor but at least I don't come out with pointless comments.

ps I don't own

Cyril, thanks for your response. I've bumped into Hlyeo on other boards and wasn't intending to take any advice from him but was interested to see if he would give a reasoned reply. The one liner didn't cut it with me. I'm not yet a holder here but have recently picked up a few Cambrian shares so I have an interest in what is happening at WTN.

O/T I had an uncle named Cyril who played for Brentford & Spurs. Not the one connected with your board name however.

Well, I'm not bothered if you guys listen anyway. We will see where WTN goes. Time will only tell anyway.

I was so lucky to get out of WTN at 340p in July although I made a loss then. Now I know it is so important to recognise or anticipate weakness.

Steel prices have waned and U.S. steel producers cut production, the run for coal companies may be coming to an end, at least for now. Common-grade scrap steel, for instance, has dropped from as much as $550 a ton to less than $400, making steelmakers who use electric furnaces more competitive than mills that burn coal.

I somehow do agree with hlyeo that it will slide but possibly to 150p.

I wish I could be more optimistic like u, cyril. Good luck.

Justi, its nice to get a considered reply as against the usual one line snips. I just stated facts, WTN have all 100% production committed for the coming year at
US$280+. What the market does at this moent in time is of course another matter,and for those brave enough could be an excellent entry point? The SP at
the moment is taking a battering opened up at 217p, which is higher than the Candian close.
cyril

Why coal producer could be good value?

SOMETHING ON COAL PRICE GOING FORWARD

--------------------------------------------------

Coal Price Stokes Pike Outlook
Posted on: Monday, 8 September 2008, 15:00 CDT

By WEIR, James

Pike expected "good (coal) prices for a number of years".

Contract prices are adjusted during annual price negotiations, taking the lead from BHP price agreements.

ABN Amro and Citigroup are now forecasting coal prices next year of more than US$300 a tonne, with spot prices as much as US$370 a tonne.

"The consensus from about six brokers is much higher prices forecast for much longer. Citigroup (alone) sees coal at US$250 a tonne in five years' time," Mr Ward said.

http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1547712/coal_price_stokes_pike_outlook/

cyril

This while, taken from an article of another company, hits the nail right on the head, imho?

but this episode once again highlights the clear value out there in the resource sector that is being ignored by the market. The share prices of many resource companies have fallen to ridiculous levels and the winners will be the resource predators that will seize upon this unprecedented buying opportunity.
And WTN is i believe one such company?

cyril

Coal is getting bad press - not climate or ecologically friendly.


US scientists say Britain's new generation of coal-fired power stations would undermine climate change efforts.

The British government will lose its leadership position on climate change and risk scuppering a global deal to cut emissions if it presses ahead with a new generation of dirty coal power, say leading US scientists and environmental leaders.

The heads of three influential groups, representing more than 2 million members, have written to the foreign secretary, David Miliband, warning that the UK proposals for up to eight new coal plants threatens the chance of the US joining a post-Kyoto international agreement to be agreed in 2009.

It is the first public sign of growing international anger over the plans and will add to pressure on Miliband and the environment secretary, Hilary Benn, to oppose the government's new coal policy in cabinet. Most immediate is the decision on whether to approve the first major planning application for a new coal plant at Kingsnorth in Kent, the site of this month's Climate Camp protest.

In the UK, there has already been heavy criticism of the plans to build new coal plants, without technology to capture and bury the large volumes of carbon dioxide emitted. Lord Smith, the new head of the government's Environment Agency, recently added forcefully to condemnations by the Environmental Audit Committee, the Royal Society, City investment groups, the government's environmental advisor Jonathon Porritt, former chief scientist Professor Sir David King, and the Institute for Public Policy Research think-tank.

The letter, now revealed to the Guardian, is signed by the heads of the Sierra Club, the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Natural Resources Defense Council. It argues Britain is in a particularly important position because of "your government's historic commitment to lead on global warming in Europe and around the world."

It adds: "As proposed, these conventional coal plants lack any limits on their emissions of carbon dioxide and would drastically increase the UK's carbon dioxide emissions and make achievement of your stated pollution reduction goals extraordinarily difficult, if not impossible. Building new conventional plants and setting the UK up to fail and lose its leadership mantle will make our work in the US all the more difficult."

Tim Jones, climate policy officer for the World Development Movement anti-poverty campaign group, said the concern was shared across the developing world, especially where emerging environment campaigns are arguing for much poorer nations to cut emissions, and rich countries like the UK are being blamed for changes such as typhoons, drought and rising sea levels.

"They can adapt to one to two degrees of warming, but if it's more than that they can't adapt; they are just filled with despair," said Jones.

British officials and ministers are understood to have already been challenged over plans for unabated coal power by other governments.

The US intervention - signed by Carl Pope, the Sierra Club's executive director, Kevin Knobloch, the UCS president, and Frances G Beinecke, the NRDC director follows an unprecedented campaign against new coal power in the US which has led to 66 of a proposed 150 new plants being abandoned or rejected by politicians and the courts, and most of the remainder locked in legal battles.

But although the two main candidates for the US presidential election in November, John McCain and Barack Obama, have both declared their support for international emissions cuts, campaigners warn that any deal would also have to be approved by Congress, which would need to know there was public support for such a move, particularly during a recession.

'If the UK takes a firm stand and rejects conventional coal it will send a strong, clear message to our new President and a new Congress, as well as to other countries considering new coal plants,' the letter adds.

Replying for the British government, the energy minister at DBERR, Malcolm Wicks, said "as a 'live' planning case I cannot comment on the merits or otherwiseor on the timing of any decision".

In a Guardian interview earlier this month, Wicks widened the government's argument in favour of coal, saying that new power stations were not just essential for energy security but also to allow the development of carbon capture and storage technology. Without that technology, "all is lost on global warming", he said, because of China's reliance on the fuel. "The idea that if we showed some kind of lead and we in Britain say no to coal and China will say 'OK we will follow' is just daft," he said. Green campaigners reject the idea that CCS cannot be developed without new, unabated power stations.

A recent report by the IPPR said the European Union's goal of reducing emissions from the power sector and heavy industry through its emissions trading scheme would collapse if the go-ahead were given to seven new coal plants in the UK and up to 75 across Europe

While i accept your post concerning coal and effects on the environment (one of
my reasons for investing in KAH long term), the fact remains that coal is still the most widely used form to produce energy. As far as the UK is concerned, we are but a drop in the ocean compared with China and India to mention two. With WTN and other such companies, its coking coal they produce for the making of steel and my reason for holding, along with they up for sale and are being checked out by several interested parties.
cyril

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=780638
cyril

MELBOURNE, Sep 10, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- BHP
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP.AU) said Wednesday demand from steel mills for coking coal remains strong and that it plans to build on its coal position in the Bowen Basin in the Australian state of Queensland.
"The outlook for the metallurgical coal market is strong with robust demand from key growth markets," BHP Coal President Dave Murray said in a statement.

"BHP Billiton continues to build on its position within the Bowen Basin to accelerate growth and bring new production to meet the needs of our customers and generate value for our shareholders."

BHP and joint venture partner Mitsubishi Corp. (8058.TO) said Wednesday they have completed their purchase of the New Saraji project from New Hope Corp. Ltd. (NHC.AU) and will commence an exploration and evaluation program there immediately.

New Hope Corp. said that following the A$2.45 billion sale it would assess its capital structure and consider potential uses of the proceeds from the sale.

-By Alex Wilson, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-3-9671-4313; alex.wilson@dowjones.com
cyril

Just hoping the am's rise is not a false dawn? This might help,

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2008/09/11/plenty-of-value-in-western-canadian-coal.aspx
cyril

Not sure what to make of this rumour from the FT, I hold both and i'm hoping it
will bring added interest to both?

Cambrian Mining rose 13 per cent to 176p on talk that Western Canadian Coal, which also has a London listing, was poised to launch an offer for its rival. The two companies have a common investor, Audley Capital, the investment group run by Julian Treger. Audley's stake in Cambrian currently stands at 25 per cent.FT

cyril

200p...as I've said, this is not favourable

What you said was "100p" and as you well know, the reason for the fall is the
general market due to Lehmans Bros collapse along with many other houses in trouble. I'll suppose you'll be claiming credit for that soon?
I see a sea of red across the whole market, as far as WTN is concerned its trading a little above one times its earning for the coming year. Fundimentals will come through in the end as to when that is will depend i suppose on the hedge funds, who are shorting almost everything at the this minute,but come back it will.
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200809140700062971B
A snippit from above,
Mr. Hogg continues, 'The second quarter is expected to be stronger as we achieve the full benefit of the current high coal price for all of our production, expect an improvement in the ratio of clean coal produced to waste removed and lower our mining costs.'
cyril

WTN is producing 3.5m/tonnes of coal with a $280 agreed price,if we break that down it works out as following.
3,500,000/365 = 9,589 tonnes/day @ $280 -120(conservative)=
9,589* 160= $1.534m a day, thats a whole lot of cash coming in.
Since that announcement 33 days have passed, so $50.6m earned.
cyril

WTN finished up 40% in Canada at $5.16 = 2.74p
cyril

WTN up over 13% this am, someway off the Canadian value. CBM also up 7%.
cyril

WTN for me is typical of a company that is outperforming all its value, but is
victim of todays market turmoil. Contracted sales of $2.8m a day with profit of $1m
giving a P/E of well under "ONE" and yet it flounders, frustrating to say the lest.
A post which sums up WTN's potential,remembering that they up for sale.

A major user of coal will value WTN solely on the basis of what it provides their business. If that value puts their offer well above WTN's market SP (which it will with WTN's coal reserves and current $1m daily profit, etc.), can anyone sensible believe they'll back out because overall stock market chaos, mug punters and forced hedge sellers have crapped on the SP?

An open market SP would normally be important in a takeover, but in this case it's irrelevant as CBM and Audley hold the vast majority of WTN shares, so a prospective buyer has no option but to negotiate directly with them if they wish to buy. As time passes, WTN will become increasingly cash-rich and the evidence is that WTN's sale price will increase with it.

Put aside the strategic review and whether a deal is about to be signed and focus instead on the fact that the SP should receive a major boost in about 6 weeks time when the Quarterly production figures are released and the sceptics are truly sorted out.

Seems their hope as 500,000 were bought at auction on the TSX at $4.55 Canadian, which is 241p which is over 1m.
And of course CBM which owns 46% is similarly traded.
cyril

As I've pointed out, WTN is running out of steam.
It's 165p now.

DO U THINK IT IS A BUY NOW AT 140P, CYRIL?

Maybe not...closed at 120p

Anyone can be a smart alec in todays market, was it just WTN or were you refering to the whole market? i doubt it, no info just one liners. Perhaps you can discredit the profits with facts and figures,which i doubt so not worth bothering
with you, i've seen so many of your type on other threads.
cyril

So it must be a very good opportunity to buy.

100p on the way very soon.

And it's 97.5p at close today as I predicted above, cyril. I have my reasons but I just couldn't be bothered typing on a losing share.

Where are all the rampers???

76.5p...this is the perfect sell.

64p...great short...am I talking to myself?

appears so.

oops ......

i see hyleo gone quiet.......strange eh! almost a quid now.......ur short going pear shaped again perhaps

103.5p now

now 105p........are u still holding this gem of a share cyril as its on its way back up

now 110p but even higher intra day! come on cyril, this share is goes up by the day. i'll soon be retired on this the way its going

now 115p!!!

u still got ur short open hyleo?

now 118.5p!

maybe hy leo shorts are burning! lets hope so

now 127p!

cant believe no-one is commenting on this booming share........esp dopey hyleo / hi leo

now 135p!!!!! lol

156p at finish.........what a day!

poor old hyleo short is in tatters!

178.5p now!!!

i see hileo has stopped posting on site........perhaps he is bankrupt like tens of thousands in this country recently.

180.5p !!!

hold on to your shorts

make that 187.5p.........what the hell

191.5p

has hyleo committed suicide yet?