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UK Banks (BANK)
BigTed
- 17 Mar 2008 09:47
Not sure if this thread will catch on, because no-one here seems to have much to say about individual british banks, but thought i would add this header to see if we could discuss dividend yields, exposure to sup-prime, good ones, bad ones, take-over targets, when the crisis will end? do you think they have learnt their lesson? I, for one, as a property developer have seen first hand how much stricter they have become with lending habits, struggling to get decent rates for re-mortgaging, basically they appear scared to lend to anyone.
BAYLIS
- 17 Mar 2008 11:02
- 2 of 331
Big on banks
BAYLIS
- 17 Mar 2008 11:09
- 3 of 331
URSA Bank Russia 24.5%
Bank Millennium SA Poland 16.3%
Bank Zachodni WBK SA Poland 10.9%
Henderson Liquity Fund United 10.5%
Kingdom
Morley Liquidity Fund - GBP United 10.0%
Kingdom
Abbey Liquidity Fund - GBP United 9.7%
Kingdom
BP Global Financials-A Class Eire 8.0%
Federal Bank Ltd - IPC India 2.9%
Bank Vozrozhdenie Russia 2.9%
Cash 2.0%
NAV 168P BLUE PLANET WORLDWIDE. ONLY RUSS' POL' AND INDIA HELD.
Bank Millennium SA Poland 16.3%
Bank Zachodni WBK SA Poland 10.9%
Henderson Liquity Fund United 10.5%
Kingdom
Morley Liquidity Fund - GBP United 10.0%
Kingdom
Abbey Liquidity Fund - GBP United 9.7%
Kingdom
BP Global Financials-A Class Eire 8.0%
Federal Bank Ltd - IPC India 2.9%
Bank Vozrozhdenie Russia 2.9%
Cash 2.0%
NAV 168P BLUE PLANET WORLDWIDE. ONLY RUSS' POL' AND INDIA HELD.
BigTed
- 17 Mar 2008 11:24
- 4 of 331
Is there a site anywhere that lists dividend payouts and dates for various banks rather than having to find each individually?
The Other Kevin
- 17 Mar 2008 11:57
- 5 of 331
Sharescope
spitfire43 - 17 Mar 2008 12:29 - 6 of 331
I brought a small amount of lloy last month, and was planning on picking up some more and also RBS, over the next 12 to 18 month's. But holding off for now, it's seems they all have further to fall.
Looking to short either hbos, bb. or al.
Looking to short either hbos, bb. or al.
BigTed
- 17 Mar 2008 12:38
- 7 of 331
Cracking research site, although very bearish... worthwhile reading some articles...
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/43864/a-rescue-for-bear-stearns-but-the-fed-is-destroying-the-dollar.html
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/43864/a-rescue-for-bear-stearns-but-the-fed-is-destroying-the-dollar.html
mitzy - 17 Mar 2008 13:04 - 8 of 331
HBOS looks a great short target 300p
BB short to 50p.
RBS short to 150p.
BB short to 50p.
RBS short to 150p.
robertalexander
- 17 Mar 2008 13:34
- 9 of 331
Will UK banks drop further today when the US market opens or does the current SP take that into account - anyone care to add their tuppence worth?
Alex
ps holding AL. for the divi.
Alex
ps holding AL. for the divi.
BAYLIS
- 17 Mar 2008 13:47
- 10 of 331
BB NOW 188P HSBC 745 RBS 310
BigTed
- 17 Mar 2008 13:48
- 11 of 331
BAYLIS
- 17 Mar 2008 13:53
- 12 of 331
AL.H2 Dividend 23-04-2008 19-05-2008 36.5000 GBX 55.3000
H1 Dividend 05-09-2007 08-10-2007 18.8000 GBX
H1 Dividend 05-09-2007 08-10-2007 18.8000 GBX
BAYLIS
- 17 Mar 2008 13:57
- 13 of 331
BB.H2 Dividend 26-03-2008 02-05-2008 14.3000 GBX 21.0000
H1 Dividend 22-08-2007 05-10-2007 6.7000 GBX
HBOSH2 Dividend 12-03-2008 12-05-2008 32.3000 GBX 48.9000
H1 Dividend 08-08-2007 08-10-2007 16.6000 GBX
RBS.H2 Dividend 05-03-2008 06-06-2008 23.1000 GBX 33.2000
H1 Dividend 15-08-2007 05-10-2007 10.1000 GBX
LLOYD.H2 Dividend 05-03-2008 07-05-2008 24.7000 GBX 35.9000
H1 Dividend 08-08-2007 03-10-2007 11.2000 GBX
BACS.H2 Dividend 05-03-2008 25-04-2008 22.5000 GBX 34.0000
H1 Dividend 15-08-2007 01-10-2007 11.5000 GBX
H1 Dividend 22-08-2007 05-10-2007 6.7000 GBX
HBOSH2 Dividend 12-03-2008 12-05-2008 32.3000 GBX 48.9000
H1 Dividend 08-08-2007 08-10-2007 16.6000 GBX
RBS.H2 Dividend 05-03-2008 06-06-2008 23.1000 GBX 33.2000
H1 Dividend 15-08-2007 05-10-2007 10.1000 GBX
LLOYD.H2 Dividend 05-03-2008 07-05-2008 24.7000 GBX 35.9000
H1 Dividend 08-08-2007 03-10-2007 11.2000 GBX
BACS.H2 Dividend 05-03-2008 25-04-2008 22.5000 GBX 34.0000
H1 Dividend 15-08-2007 01-10-2007 11.5000 GBX
BigTed
- 17 Mar 2008 14:00
- 14 of 331
Knew if i was lazy enough for long enough someone would do it for me... lol, thx!
mitzy - 17 Mar 2008 14:02 - 15 of 331
Americans simply dont have enough money to pay their credit cards and mortgage repayments.
Take B.Stearns they were $170 a share a year ago and $50 a share last Friday and they have sold to JPM for $2 a share ...who is to say that wont happen to Britsh Banks..
Take B.Stearns they were $170 a share a year ago and $50 a share last Friday and they have sold to JPM for $2 a share ...who is to say that wont happen to Britsh Banks..
mitzy - 17 Mar 2008 14:04 - 16 of 331
If the UK housing market collapses it will take HBOS with it as they have massive exposure to th housing market.. no bank is safe.
BAYLIS
- 17 Mar 2008 14:14
- 17 of 331
DARLING BANK the safe.
hewittalan6
- 17 Mar 2008 14:16
- 18 of 331
UK banks should not suffer to the degree bear stearns did. There are many differences, not only in the product offering, but in the regulatory system. They will suffer though.
To call it a sub prime crises is now, for me, officailly a misnomer. Lenders accross the UK are now pulling in their horns on prime loans too. This is due not to risk, but to illiquidity and an end to the money go round.
The question now is how and when this will end. I thought I spotted signs of it about 6 weeks ago, with sub prime lenders sourcing their money in Switzerland, but even that hasn't worked. The thing now is to let capitalism take its course. There is a huge supply gap opening and someone will fill it. But they can only do that as and when the property market has a correction. While we are being told it must come, loan to values are low are they are only willing to lend to their best estimate for a value that is likely to drop. Once it has happened, we will see a rise in loan to values that will start consumerism up again.
Just as a rising market feeds off itself, a falling market does too.
The answer, for me, is a short until secured lending eases, then go long. Watch the rates and more importantly the criteria and as that eases you will know that the property market, and by extension the banks business, is about to turn up.
The reason the USA suffered most in this is simply their mortgages tend to be of the flexible type, where all spending is part of the mortgage, including credit cards, car finance and even buying a fridge at your local Walmart. Imagine how bad it would be here if all the potential defaultees included every bit of their lending in with their mortgage.
To call it a sub prime crises is now, for me, officailly a misnomer. Lenders accross the UK are now pulling in their horns on prime loans too. This is due not to risk, but to illiquidity and an end to the money go round.
The question now is how and when this will end. I thought I spotted signs of it about 6 weeks ago, with sub prime lenders sourcing their money in Switzerland, but even that hasn't worked. The thing now is to let capitalism take its course. There is a huge supply gap opening and someone will fill it. But they can only do that as and when the property market has a correction. While we are being told it must come, loan to values are low are they are only willing to lend to their best estimate for a value that is likely to drop. Once it has happened, we will see a rise in loan to values that will start consumerism up again.
Just as a rising market feeds off itself, a falling market does too.
The answer, for me, is a short until secured lending eases, then go long. Watch the rates and more importantly the criteria and as that eases you will know that the property market, and by extension the banks business, is about to turn up.
The reason the USA suffered most in this is simply their mortgages tend to be of the flexible type, where all spending is part of the mortgage, including credit cards, car finance and even buying a fridge at your local Walmart. Imagine how bad it would be here if all the potential defaultees included every bit of their lending in with their mortgage.
BAYLIS
- 17 Mar 2008 14:25
- 19 of 331
$2 for BEAR STEARNS.Despite "challenging times," the U.S. government is "on top" of the unfolding financial problems, President Bush said Monday at a Cabinet meeting. Bush said he was supportive of the actions of the Federal Reserve to restore order to the markets. "Our financial institutions are strong," Bush said, adding that "capital markets are functioning efficiently."
BAYLIS
- 17 Mar 2008 15:06
- 20 of 331
Bank shares now on the way up.
BAYLIS
- 17 Mar 2008 15:07
- 21 of 331
mitzy - 17 Mar 2008 18:36 - 22 of 331
http://depression2.tv/d2/node/42
spitfire43 - 18 Mar 2008 09:24 - 23 of 331
I fancy HBOS as a short, not only are they exposed to the UK mortgage market, but also have a massive expoure to near sub prime lending (7.0bn). Worth a short on any bounce. imo.
hewittalan6
- 18 Mar 2008 09:29
- 24 of 331
You may be right, spitfire.
From an industry point of view I can confirm to you that the Halifax have taken 3 unusual steps recently which seem aimed at reducing exposure.
1) The best secured deals they offer are now only available to existing mortgage customers, new customers do not seem very welcome
2) Their sub prime arm has banned all lending that is used for consolidation puposes
3) They have reduced their maximum personal loan amount from 25k to 13k
That looks to me like they have decided they do not want to attract any more custom.
From an industry point of view I can confirm to you that the Halifax have taken 3 unusual steps recently which seem aimed at reducing exposure.
1) The best secured deals they offer are now only available to existing mortgage customers, new customers do not seem very welcome
2) Their sub prime arm has banned all lending that is used for consolidation puposes
3) They have reduced their maximum personal loan amount from 25k to 13k
That looks to me like they have decided they do not want to attract any more custom.
mitzy - 18 Mar 2008 11:08 - 25 of 331
Best short in the market due to the UK housing exposure.
spitfire43 - 18 Mar 2008 13:12 - 26 of 331
See chart below,
HBOS have had a hell of a fall in last 3 weeks from 700 to sub 500, I notice that the last lower high or resistance is just below 600. Now if markets bounce and HBOS fails to break 600 and falls, it may be a good entrance for a short.
HBOS have had a hell of a fall in last 3 weeks from 700 to sub 500, I notice that the last lower high or resistance is just below 600. Now if markets bounce and HBOS fails to break 600 and falls, it may be a good entrance for a short.
BigTed
- 18 Mar 2008 15:53
- 27 of 331
Read somewhere earlier HBOS is the least stable of our banks with a larger chunk of exposure to bad debts than the others... will look to short on any strength as i believe the credit crisis has plenty to run yet...
brianboru
- 19 Mar 2008 09:28
- 28 of 331
HBOS in trouble?
BigTed
- 19 Mar 2008 09:48
- 29 of 331
Wishing i had courage of my convictions... less than three trading hours ago, i wrote about shorting HBOS...! I have certainly lost my bottle after being burnt heavily in past few weeks...
Incidentally, how long before Citibank goes the same way as Bear...?
Incidentally, how long before Citibank goes the same way as Bear...?
BigTed
- 19 Mar 2008 09:59
- 30 of 331
According to Fortune, "Bear Stearns is dealing with a classic run-on-the-bank. The firm's short-term creditors refused to lend the firm any more money via the extension of overnight loans, and simultaneously demanded repayment of outstanding debt. The one-two punch overwhelmed Bear's cash position, forcing it to seek help. Had the Fed not stepped in, it appears doubtful Bear could have operated today.... In short, the Fed is allowing J.P. Morgan - a commercial bank - to act as a conduit for pumping cash into Bear Stearns. The bank is being permitted to give Bear Stearns collateral at the Fed's emergency-lending discount window to secure 28-day financing, which in turn is lent back to Bear Stearns in order to finance its business. The Fed's role in the deal suggests federal officials fear a systemic collapse of the U.S. financial system were Bear Stearns to fail. The fear stems from Bear central role in a multitrillion-dollar web of interconnecting derivative contracts."
If Citigroup dos not get an injection of cash soon it is going to blow up just like Bear Stearns. That is why the Fed tried to bailout Bear. It is worried that if one bank collapses investors will wake up and connect the dots and realize that the balance sheets on other Wall Street banks are works of total fiction too and cause panic in the stock market and a run on some of these banks. Banks that made stupid mortgage bets deserve to suffer, but the Fed is owned by the banks and works on their behalf instead of the greater good of the general welfare of our country. The costs of the bailout are born by you at the gas pump and the inflationary pressures created by a falling dollar.
If Citigroup dos not get an injection of cash soon it is going to blow up just like Bear Stearns. That is why the Fed tried to bailout Bear. It is worried that if one bank collapses investors will wake up and connect the dots and realize that the balance sheets on other Wall Street banks are works of total fiction too and cause panic in the stock market and a run on some of these banks. Banks that made stupid mortgage bets deserve to suffer, but the Fed is owned by the banks and works on their behalf instead of the greater good of the general welfare of our country. The costs of the bailout are born by you at the gas pump and the inflationary pressures created by a falling dollar.
spitfire43 - 19 Mar 2008 10:18 - 31 of 331
Banks tanking today, apart from lloy, hsbc and stan take your pick of which bank to short. Can't see hbos getting anywhere close to 600 level now, so will have to think about a level to short these.
mitzy - 19 Mar 2008 10:24 - 32 of 331
Best short in the market.. read somewhere they are to announce a 5 bill package to support their liquidity problems.
BigTed
- 19 Mar 2008 11:08
- 33 of 331
Shares of UK mortgage lender HBOS plummeted more than 18% in early London trade on rumors that the company approached the BoE for emergency funding. HBOS spokesmen denied those rumors but markets remained jumpy and turbulent in the wake of the Bear Stearns disaster, with traders preferring to sell first and ask questions later.
Cable dropped nearly two big figures on the HBOS news while the latest economic data from UK only added insult to injury by showing a slowdown in UK labor markets. UK employment data showed a substantial weakening in labor demand as unemployment rolls were reduced by only -2.8K versus -5.0K expected while wages grew at 3.7% annual rates versus 3.8% forecast. Furthermore, BoE minutes which were expected to produce an 8-1 vote revealed a vote of 7-2 instead suggesting serious concerns about economic growth
Given the recent turmoil in financial markets it now appears that the BoE will be much more likely to ease at the next MPC meeting in April. and if tomorrows UK Retail Sales data shows a more than forecast decline, chances of a 50bp rather than merely a 25bp one will increase markedly. Tonights news clearly creates additional risks for the pound going forward as UK may become the next G-10 member to follow the US into a recession.
Cable dropped nearly two big figures on the HBOS news while the latest economic data from UK only added insult to injury by showing a slowdown in UK labor markets. UK employment data showed a substantial weakening in labor demand as unemployment rolls were reduced by only -2.8K versus -5.0K expected while wages grew at 3.7% annual rates versus 3.8% forecast. Furthermore, BoE minutes which were expected to produce an 8-1 vote revealed a vote of 7-2 instead suggesting serious concerns about economic growth
Given the recent turmoil in financial markets it now appears that the BoE will be much more likely to ease at the next MPC meeting in April. and if tomorrows UK Retail Sales data shows a more than forecast decline, chances of a 50bp rather than merely a 25bp one will increase markedly. Tonights news clearly creates additional risks for the pound going forward as UK may become the next G-10 member to follow the US into a recession.
halifax - 19 Mar 2008 18:51 - 34 of 331
IG will double its margin requirements on most bank positions next week.
BigTed
- 20 Mar 2008 20:26
- 35 of 331
TD Waterhouse just released new margin call requirements, interesting that most have gone from 5% to 10%, however HBOS gone to 20% margin required...
BigTed
- 25 Mar 2008 08:39
- 36 of 331
So, question is, a shorting opertunity???
scotinvestor - 25 Mar 2008 09:06 - 37 of 331
shut up ted.
if thats what u wat, then go ahead and bankrupt britain....its a crap country anyway....most decent brits leve now anyway
if thats what u wat, then go ahead and bankrupt britain....its a crap country anyway....most decent brits leve now anyway
BigTed
- 25 Mar 2008 09:23
- 38 of 331
Just interested, like most here, in making money, the banks have brought it upon themselves, so no real need for any obscenities is there...?
spitfire43 - 01 Apr 2008 22:47 - 39 of 331
Interesting to see the strengh of tha banks at the moment, unfortunately I feel this is a false rally. Will keep an eye on a reverse in the markets for possible shorts, may look at AL. this time. But also Housebuilders could be tempting.
spitfire43 - 03 Apr 2008 14:41 - 40 of 331
Funny how sentiment can change so quickly, can't see how they can rank hbos above lloy, but what does anyone know any more. see below.
Goldman Sachs has raised HBOS Plc. to 'buy' from 'neutral' and downgraded Lloyds TSB Group Plc. to 'sell' from 'neutral' in a banking review, market sources said.
In a note published this morning, Goldman Sachs said that it is upgrading HBOS as it believes that liquidity concerns have been overdone and more than just the structural changes the domestic UK banks are facing are priced in.
The broker added that it is downgrading Lloyds TSB as it believes that recent outperformance more than reflects its perceived defensiveness.
Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs said that Barclays has been removed from its conviction list but remains a 'sell' as current prices do not reflect declining profitability and likely further earnings downgrades.
Goldman Sachs has raised HBOS Plc. to 'buy' from 'neutral' and downgraded Lloyds TSB Group Plc. to 'sell' from 'neutral' in a banking review, market sources said.
In a note published this morning, Goldman Sachs said that it is upgrading HBOS as it believes that liquidity concerns have been overdone and more than just the structural changes the domestic UK banks are facing are priced in.
The broker added that it is downgrading Lloyds TSB as it believes that recent outperformance more than reflects its perceived defensiveness.
Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs said that Barclays has been removed from its conviction list but remains a 'sell' as current prices do not reflect declining profitability and likely further earnings downgrades.
halifax - 03 Apr 2008 17:33 - 41 of 331
Goldman Suchs must hold an awful lot of HBOS shares.
spitfire43 - 03 Apr 2008 18:27 - 42 of 331
You may be right, even though HBOS directors have brought in last week, I wouldn't feel comfortable following them. I would still like to buy lloy lower down.
mitzy - 13 Apr 2008 20:46 - 43 of 331
B&B next target for the shorters following HBOS last month.
Guscavalier
- 13 Apr 2008 21:11
- 44 of 331
Speculation in the press (business section of S/Times) that B&B may be looking to have a rights issue.
mitzy - 13 Apr 2008 21:25 - 45 of 331
Bad news not good for shareholders tomorrow will not be a good day for investors.
spitfire43 - 13 Apr 2008 22:16 - 46 of 331
I must admit if I was a longterm shareholder in B&B, I would be happy to have a rights issue. Yes the shares would go down on the announcement, but for the longterm, at least they could get in first and take positive action. Best to take action now, rather than leave it to late.
Guscavalier
- 14 Apr 2008 07:41
- 47 of 331
rights issue has been denied by the Company. However, for both the S/Times and S/Telegraph to have mentioned the possibility, presumably there was some close contact . If there has been a leak, this in itself could ruin the timing of any issue since a fall in sp, as a result,could erode the discount the issue price would have with the issue price. I do not hold bb. but would agree with spitfire43 that it is better to take action sooner than later if further funds are required. Large institutional holders I believe include LloydsTSB and Legal and General, so I suspect they would have to agree with any proposal in order to gauge support.
spitfire43 - 14 Apr 2008 08:40 - 48 of 331
Have you noticed that when times are good, companies can't be bothered going to share holders for a rights issue. They just go for placings, so denying small share holders the chance to take part.
Paragon had a rights issue a few month's back, and it was taken up with over 90% acceptance, I would like to see the press run some articles on this, and remind companies when the good times return.
Paragon had a rights issue a few month's back, and it was taken up with over 90% acceptance, I would like to see the press run some articles on this, and remind companies when the good times return.
mitzy - 14 Apr 2008 20:54 - 49 of 331
Golman Sachs warn of bloodbath in coming months.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/14/bcngold114.xml
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/14/bcngold114.xml
spitfire43 - 14 Apr 2008 22:20 - 50 of 331
Thanks mitzy, a little cheery bedtime reading for me.
Interesting article, and I'm sure it's spot on unfortunately, I will continue to slowly buy into high yielding blue chips, but very slowly over the next 18/24 month's. And go long or short when the opportunity present's.
I seem to be more bearish as time goes by, hope I can snap out of it when time is right. If not may have to see a doctor, and ask him to give me something.
Now to bed with a nice pot of honey.........
Interesting article, and I'm sure it's spot on unfortunately, I will continue to slowly buy into high yielding blue chips, but very slowly over the next 18/24 month's. And go long or short when the opportunity present's.
I seem to be more bearish as time goes by, hope I can snap out of it when time is right. If not may have to see a doctor, and ask him to give me something.
Now to bed with a nice pot of honey.........
mitzy - 14 Apr 2008 22:28 - 51 of 331
Its funny but GS were predicting a oil price of $110 a barrel in 2010... its that today in fact its $112 they got that one wrong.
Best short the banks and airlines and hold oils.
cheers.
Best short the banks and airlines and hold oils.
cheers.
scotinvestor - 15 Apr 2008 01:16 - 52 of 331
banks are also not negotiating on any credit card debts............so unless you can pay, then you will go bankrupt.
i notice credit card debt has gone from 1.2 billion to 2.8billion.
Now with HBOS having majority of housing mortgages, if people are struggling with paying, then they might use credit card.......and so the struggle continues.
i can see hundreds of thousands losing their homes.........or being bankrupt either this year or next year...........oh, and poles and other folk will soon see uk aint that great and go back home where theres plenty of work.
And is weak too so that helps people leave uk too.....all people leaving will drive house prices down much further.....and these folk mortgsages getting higher and higher but property getting less and less.
Theres predictions of at least 25% down in house prices and up to 50%.
Maybe i'll buy a house in 18 months or 2 years time when half a million folk are out on the street.
i notice credit card debt has gone from 1.2 billion to 2.8billion.
Now with HBOS having majority of housing mortgages, if people are struggling with paying, then they might use credit card.......and so the struggle continues.
i can see hundreds of thousands losing their homes.........or being bankrupt either this year or next year...........oh, and poles and other folk will soon see uk aint that great and go back home where theres plenty of work.
And is weak too so that helps people leave uk too.....all people leaving will drive house prices down much further.....and these folk mortgsages getting higher and higher but property getting less and less.
Theres predictions of at least 25% down in house prices and up to 50%.
Maybe i'll buy a house in 18 months or 2 years time when half a million folk are out on the street.
dealerdear - 15 Apr 2008 07:40 - 53 of 331
I feel really cheered up now.
Wow, thanks!
Wow, thanks!
2517GEORGE
- 15 Apr 2008 18:36
- 54 of 331
And I thought I was miserable.
2517
2517
scotinvestor - 15 Apr 2008 20:59 - 55 of 331
i aint miserable.......its just the way things are going to be in UK. The question is how many are going to be on street.........is it 60,000 homes x say 2.5 people per home = 150,000 on street or is it up to 2 million homes x 2.5 people per property = 5 million on street.....haha.
as long as these folk voted labour, i wouldnt mind.
i predicted the doomsday forecast 4 years ago in my office and folk called me pessimistic....amongst other things.
Remember, US prices aint gone up as much as UK. House prices will go down at least 25%....maybe 50%. And there wont be much increase in property for at least 3 years, probably 4.
If one looks at property, there has only been increase of 3% per year until this gov came to power where its up 179% in 10 years. Its been politically driven........you cant live in never never land.
Most people are apathetic and dont know or care about what happens in UK....and so are not aware of tax increases, stealth taxes or other creepy dodgy things this gov does. You reap what you sow in life ultimately. If you vote for crap govrnment.....then if you get crap, why are folk complaining.
Crap in = crap out
as long as these folk voted labour, i wouldnt mind.
i predicted the doomsday forecast 4 years ago in my office and folk called me pessimistic....amongst other things.
Remember, US prices aint gone up as much as UK. House prices will go down at least 25%....maybe 50%. And there wont be much increase in property for at least 3 years, probably 4.
If one looks at property, there has only been increase of 3% per year until this gov came to power where its up 179% in 10 years. Its been politically driven........you cant live in never never land.
Most people are apathetic and dont know or care about what happens in UK....and so are not aware of tax increases, stealth taxes or other creepy dodgy things this gov does. You reap what you sow in life ultimately. If you vote for crap govrnment.....then if you get crap, why are folk complaining.
Crap in = crap out
2517GEORGE
- 16 Apr 2008 08:00
- 56 of 331
A good time to be in BEG, TNO or VTS then, I chose TNO a few weeks back they haven't moved, but BEG are up around 10%.
2517
2517
Falcothou - 16 Apr 2008 08:50 - 57 of 331
From a more optimistic perspective lower house prices are good for first time buyers or people wanting to step up the ladder, they have to borrow less
2517GEORGE
- 16 Apr 2008 09:28
- 58 of 331
FTB's will need a decent deposit and the lending rates will be unfavourable. The banks and building societies are in part (large) to blame for the current situation for bombarding households over recent years with offers of cheap money without any thought as to whether the payments could be made. This is not to exonerate the individuals concerned for having the breaking strain of a kit-kat, and a lack of regard as to how they would make the repayments. Unfortunately the banks management will not be the ones suffering.
2517
2517
scotinvestor - 16 Apr 2008 11:24 - 59 of 331
falco
problem is house prices need to PLUMMET for 1st time buyers....as mervyn king has ACTUALLY STATED THIS.
to go up 179%, then u need about 50% decline to give 1st time buyers a chance.....oh, ok.....lets say average price now in uk of 200,000 and maybe end of next year, price is 100,000. then maybe 1st time buyers will have a chance.....but millions of people will people will be crying then.......as i say, what goes up, must come down
oh, and banks should be ashamed what they have done esp HBOS. HBOS should be sacked with immediate effect.....they increasing rates more and more making housing crisis a TOTAL CRISIS. as i say, millions will be re-possessed or bankrupt.
problem is house prices need to PLUMMET for 1st time buyers....as mervyn king has ACTUALLY STATED THIS.
to go up 179%, then u need about 50% decline to give 1st time buyers a chance.....oh, ok.....lets say average price now in uk of 200,000 and maybe end of next year, price is 100,000. then maybe 1st time buyers will have a chance.....but millions of people will people will be crying then.......as i say, what goes up, must come down
oh, and banks should be ashamed what they have done esp HBOS. HBOS should be sacked with immediate effect.....they increasing rates more and more making housing crisis a TOTAL CRISIS. as i say, millions will be re-possessed or bankrupt.
BigTed
- 16 Apr 2008 13:34
- 60 of 331
Like i said, people haven't quite cottened on yet, there are now very few buyers around, far less than the numbers of properties on the market and that will only get worse, therefore the only way to sell at present (and i'm talking majority, but not prestige or well located homes) is to be substantially cheaper than your competitors... again just been for a walk last hour and no shortage of for sale signs, in fact really quite surprised just how many are available, but i have to say i didn't see one sold sign, - proof enough and exactly what happened in early ninties - the buyers have largely gone...
spitfire43 - 21 Apr 2008 18:32 - 61 of 331
The widely anticipated BOE 50bn facility announcement seems to have had little effect. It will be interesting to see which bank is brave enough the use this facilty first in a large way, would it not be the same as Northern Rock going to the BOE last year, then when the news broke it caused a lose of confidence in the bank. Another possible danger might be that a bank that uses this facilty first may be heavily shorted, because they could be seen to be the weakest link.
I would imagine that banks would rather go down the right issue route, rather than to the BOE, also I have read the terms are fairly stringent.
I would imagine that banks would rather go down the right issue route, rather than to the BOE, also I have read the terms are fairly stringent.
hlyeo98 - 21 Apr 2008 19:29 - 62 of 331
This is bad news for the banks.
hewittalan6
- 22 Apr 2008 18:26
- 63 of 331
Just back from a conference involving some of the banks. Very interesting views.
We were banned from using the word crisis, which speaks volumes in itself, but there was some interesting bits getting said.
A large Building Society claims it is not even near a crisis. It was simply a long overdue market correction.
The banks are all saying the same about the 50 Billion though.
The overall lending of the lenders who have withdrawn from the market or folded amounted, last year, to 52 Billion. Therefore, even if the UK banks took the entire BoE offering, it would still not be quite enough to make up for lost market players.
More to the point, the BoE is a central bank, and therefore the money is not ringfenced for UK lenders. It is available to any lender, anywhere in the world, subject to the banks status.
The problem for the banks is not a lack of money, or even really capital adequacy. It is the end of the merry go round of moving money. Perversely, this may benefit banks, if it goes on long enough.
Let me explain. A bank lends money on a 2 year fixed rate. It thoroughly expects that 2 years later, the loan will be repaid in full as the borrower moves elsewhere, and so the redemptions coming in make up the bulk of the money it needs for new lending that month. The rest is raised through LIBOR, or bank reserves.
Now, LIBOR is too expensive and reserves are low, but worse, people are not redeeming their mortgage. This causes a problem because the fees associated with the new mortgages are where lenders make their money. No new mortgages equals no new profits, but the ones staying with them pay a much higher rate and so profitability comes, just much more slowly. Perhaps 18 months rather than straight away.
Either way, they do make money, but it is a conundrum as to whether they want to end the problem now, or not.
Finally, they think that we are heavily dependant on USA sentiment and that will change with a new president in November, though it may take up to 6 months after that for the benefits to migrate across the atlantic.
Very interesting day.
We were banned from using the word crisis, which speaks volumes in itself, but there was some interesting bits getting said.
A large Building Society claims it is not even near a crisis. It was simply a long overdue market correction.
The banks are all saying the same about the 50 Billion though.
The overall lending of the lenders who have withdrawn from the market or folded amounted, last year, to 52 Billion. Therefore, even if the UK banks took the entire BoE offering, it would still not be quite enough to make up for lost market players.
More to the point, the BoE is a central bank, and therefore the money is not ringfenced for UK lenders. It is available to any lender, anywhere in the world, subject to the banks status.
The problem for the banks is not a lack of money, or even really capital adequacy. It is the end of the merry go round of moving money. Perversely, this may benefit banks, if it goes on long enough.
Let me explain. A bank lends money on a 2 year fixed rate. It thoroughly expects that 2 years later, the loan will be repaid in full as the borrower moves elsewhere, and so the redemptions coming in make up the bulk of the money it needs for new lending that month. The rest is raised through LIBOR, or bank reserves.
Now, LIBOR is too expensive and reserves are low, but worse, people are not redeeming their mortgage. This causes a problem because the fees associated with the new mortgages are where lenders make their money. No new mortgages equals no new profits, but the ones staying with them pay a much higher rate and so profitability comes, just much more slowly. Perhaps 18 months rather than straight away.
Either way, they do make money, but it is a conundrum as to whether they want to end the problem now, or not.
Finally, they think that we are heavily dependant on USA sentiment and that will change with a new president in November, though it may take up to 6 months after that for the benefits to migrate across the atlantic.
Very interesting day.
halifax - 23 Apr 2008 09:34 - 64 of 331
Wish it was as simple as that, the underlying problem is that financial institutions are still unable to put a value on the various derrivatives they are holding as there is little or no market for this dubious paper. Hence the ongoing need to make massive provisions. Injecting liquidity into the market will not in itself make these " dud" pieces of paper any more valuable until confidence returns to the market.
partridge
- 23 Apr 2008 10:57
- 65 of 331
Interesting post Alan as always. What really concerns me is that if Sir Fred Goodwin and his team think there is no need for capital raising in February (and I believe they were genuine at that time) then find the need 12BN or more a couple of months later, they really do not have a clue what is going on within their business. The numbers for the various financial instruments are so vast against the banks capital bases that who knows what will happen next. Suspect it will all come right in the end, but the bonuses taken by some of these guys over last few years, whilst driving their business in what now appears to be an uncontrolled manner, make a grumpy old man like me very angry.
hlyeo98 - 23 Apr 2008 11:05 - 66 of 331
Why has AL. drop 50p today? Is it a likely candidate for rights issue next?
2517GEORGE
- 23 Apr 2008 11:17
- 67 of 331
partridge---I think pressure by the chancer, sorry chancellor was instrumental in the rights issue.
hlyeo----ex div + general trend down.
2517
hlyeo----ex div + general trend down.
2517
hewittalan6
- 23 Apr 2008 12:54
- 68 of 331
hyleo,
general consensus within the industry is that Barclays will be the next to pop their heads above the parapet.
They are certainly the ones closest to breaking the capital adequacy rules.
general consensus within the industry is that Barclays will be the next to pop their heads above the parapet.
They are certainly the ones closest to breaking the capital adequacy rules.
halifax - 23 Apr 2008 13:38 - 69 of 331
BARC didnt pursue their bid for ABN/AMRO and overpay like RBS did, Fred the shred should go and take his megalomanic style of management with him.
spitfire43 - 23 Apr 2008 14:34 - 70 of 331
HBOS won't be far behind Barclays, I wonder how prudent the share purchases will look by the board of HBOS in a few months time. They will need to dip into there pockets again after a rights issue. I believe the AGM Statement is due soon, it could make interesting reading re any writedowns.
hewittalan6
- 24 Apr 2008 09:59
- 71 of 331
Shock, Horror!!!!
I have just been discussing the current mortgage crisis with a lender (not a bank), who must remain nameless for confidentiality purposes.
They are telling me something that goes totally against everything in the industry.
They have actually said they have plenty of money available to lend, but too few applicants for the money.
They are a balance sheet lender, unexposed to the LIBOR turmoil, but it was an astonishing thing to hear. Does this mean the UK appetite for spending someone elses cash has disappeared? That would be a bigger issue than any credit crisis.
I have just been discussing the current mortgage crisis with a lender (not a bank), who must remain nameless for confidentiality purposes.
They are telling me something that goes totally against everything in the industry.
They have actually said they have plenty of money available to lend, but too few applicants for the money.
They are a balance sheet lender, unexposed to the LIBOR turmoil, but it was an astonishing thing to hear. Does this mean the UK appetite for spending someone elses cash has disappeared? That would be a bigger issue than any credit crisis.
halifax - 24 Apr 2008 10:10 - 72 of 331
Sounds like nonsense to me , they would say that wouldn't they!!
hewittalan6
- 24 Apr 2008 10:17
- 73 of 331
Think what you like, halifax.
I am in the industry, I know these people, I am not in any way connected, they have no reason to speak nonsense.
They are a balance sheet lender. This is a very different animal to the leveraged lenders.
I see material from banks restriciting criteria and lowering LTV's. I see material from these guys offering more considerate underwriting and special offers to attract borrowers. They are very niche with their products, but the niche is to attract serial non payers, unusual properties and "outside the box" lending. Just the areas that should be booming.
Anyway, you know best.
I am in the industry, I know these people, I am not in any way connected, they have no reason to speak nonsense.
They are a balance sheet lender. This is a very different animal to the leveraged lenders.
I see material from banks restriciting criteria and lowering LTV's. I see material from these guys offering more considerate underwriting and special offers to attract borrowers. They are very niche with their products, but the niche is to attract serial non payers, unusual properties and "outside the box" lending. Just the areas that should be booming.
Anyway, you know best.
halifax - 24 Apr 2008 10:23 - 74 of 331
Lending to serial non payers sounds good to me!!
Guscavalier
- 24 Apr 2008 10:49
- 75 of 331
hewittalan6. on what terms would this niche player be lending. It is no secret that the consumer is being squeezed, and perhaps many have now finally learnt that they must cut their coats according to the cloth. I do not doubt what your contacts say but I suspect that the money is not cheap.
halifax - 24 Apr 2008 10:52 - 76 of 331
Guscavalier suggest you try John Charcol.
hewittalan6
- 24 Apr 2008 11:16
- 77 of 331
You're right, Gus. The money is not cheap, but their lending falls into 2 categories.
They offer the unlimited adverse stuff which is used as a last chance saloon. I expect this particular bar to be full to overflowing by now. If you face the choice of repossession, or a change in lender and higher rates, most people (rightly or wrongly) try to rescue the situation by moving the loan. Usually this just puts off the inevitable, but the lender makes money.
The other arm(s) offer rapid financing for smaller developers and speculators. Traditionally, this is more risky, but with high rewards and other lenders would not go there due to the risk factor.
So in truth, though they are costly, the rewards are high and those using them know that. The odd % made little difference.
As for Charcol. Watch this space. Suffice to say that small brokers with very low overheads are struggling and reigning in spending. How would they manage if they had impressive head offices and huge amounts of backroom staff?
They offer the unlimited adverse stuff which is used as a last chance saloon. I expect this particular bar to be full to overflowing by now. If you face the choice of repossession, or a change in lender and higher rates, most people (rightly or wrongly) try to rescue the situation by moving the loan. Usually this just puts off the inevitable, but the lender makes money.
The other arm(s) offer rapid financing for smaller developers and speculators. Traditionally, this is more risky, but with high rewards and other lenders would not go there due to the risk factor.
So in truth, though they are costly, the rewards are high and those using them know that. The odd % made little difference.
As for Charcol. Watch this space. Suffice to say that small brokers with very low overheads are struggling and reigning in spending. How would they manage if they had impressive head offices and huge amounts of backroom staff?
hangon - 24 Apr 2008 12:46 - 78 of 331
I am surprised there is any lending ( ie still standing), with piles of cash about. Add-in that is is not LIBOR ( mentioned here) and we have to conclude this is Savers' Deposits. . . . . i.e. the traditional BS model.
I'm not surprised folk are avoiding moving house ( with all the charges that involves) - particulalrly if all they are doing is move up-market. Stayiing put and building an extension, or having a last-minute foreign holiday - are "sweeter" ways to spend far less.
(This ignores folk who have to move for Job-reasons, but I suspect these are relativly few and many are assisted by the employer).
Therefore, it looks like traditional BS model is still working . . . so what is the issue with UK-Banks?
1) Banks are not lending to each other, fearing the borrowing bank's defaults may reduce their ability to repay loans.
2) They appear to have a large number of Mortgages on their books, some if these may turn bad - let's suggest this is about 5% - more than enough to wipe-out any profits.
3) The BoE ( or the Labour Government ) - wants to "do something" and the Banks have suggested the BoE takes-on these Mortgages......in exchange for cash....which (presumably) they can lend out at current/higher rates . . . . . thereby making up for their stupidity and losses on these Mortgages.
It seems to me that if Banks want to be shot of their Morgages - and the BoE is willing to provide Cash - We'd better take cover!
This is likely to end-up costing the Public far more.
IMHO Banks should NOT be allowed to continue to trade in this "profit-driven" risk-ignoring manner......it is self-evident that NRK was more than a wake-up call - it demonstated that Bankers are potentially grossly incompetant - it remains to be seen where the blame lies, but I like to follow the money - who was being paid the most? Which employees benefited from these Mortgages which were not backed by long-held cash?
Grr!
I'm not surprised folk are avoiding moving house ( with all the charges that involves) - particulalrly if all they are doing is move up-market. Stayiing put and building an extension, or having a last-minute foreign holiday - are "sweeter" ways to spend far less.
(This ignores folk who have to move for Job-reasons, but I suspect these are relativly few and many are assisted by the employer).
Therefore, it looks like traditional BS model is still working . . . so what is the issue with UK-Banks?
1) Banks are not lending to each other, fearing the borrowing bank's defaults may reduce their ability to repay loans.
2) They appear to have a large number of Mortgages on their books, some if these may turn bad - let's suggest this is about 5% - more than enough to wipe-out any profits.
3) The BoE ( or the Labour Government ) - wants to "do something" and the Banks have suggested the BoE takes-on these Mortgages......in exchange for cash....which (presumably) they can lend out at current/higher rates . . . . . thereby making up for their stupidity and losses on these Mortgages.
It seems to me that if Banks want to be shot of their Morgages - and the BoE is willing to provide Cash - We'd better take cover!
This is likely to end-up costing the Public far more.
IMHO Banks should NOT be allowed to continue to trade in this "profit-driven" risk-ignoring manner......it is self-evident that NRK was more than a wake-up call - it demonstated that Bankers are potentially grossly incompetant - it remains to be seen where the blame lies, but I like to follow the money - who was being paid the most? Which employees benefited from these Mortgages which were not backed by long-held cash?
Grr!
hewittalan6
- 24 Apr 2008 13:56
- 79 of 331
Hangon,
The lender i mention is not BS based, nor is its business, beyond that I say no more, other than it is deposit based.
The BS model does work though, and this is evidenced by the regional lenders who were offering loans across the UK who are now offering broadly similar product, but only at a local level.
Perhaps the argument was whether the capital adequacy requirements were wrongly set. They are at 4%. Any higher and the whole UK system would be doing either a NRK or as RBS, or, more likely, lending would have been stricter, earlier. If they were lower, the LIBOR markets would be freed up.
Trying to remember the figures from Tuesday, but the banks were arguing that we will not follow the USA to the same degree because secured lending in the UK accounts for about 1 Trillion, compared to about 3 Trillion in security, whereas the ratio for Uncle Sam is much higher.
Can't remember the figures exactly, so forgive me, but it would take much more here to create a situation where secured debts started to look insecure.
The lender i mention is not BS based, nor is its business, beyond that I say no more, other than it is deposit based.
The BS model does work though, and this is evidenced by the regional lenders who were offering loans across the UK who are now offering broadly similar product, but only at a local level.
Perhaps the argument was whether the capital adequacy requirements were wrongly set. They are at 4%. Any higher and the whole UK system would be doing either a NRK or as RBS, or, more likely, lending would have been stricter, earlier. If they were lower, the LIBOR markets would be freed up.
Trying to remember the figures from Tuesday, but the banks were arguing that we will not follow the USA to the same degree because secured lending in the UK accounts for about 1 Trillion, compared to about 3 Trillion in security, whereas the ratio for Uncle Sam is much higher.
Can't remember the figures exactly, so forgive me, but it would take much more here to create a situation where secured debts started to look insecure.
Guscavalier
- 24 Apr 2008 15:16
- 80 of 331
I think the banks have had their wake up call Hangon. The fact that they have /or will be asking shareholders to subscribe to rights issues means that, quite rightly, the risks are shared with shareholders as well as the taxpayer. The outlook has changed and they cannot afford to go back to the lax ways of doing business. There will be no difficulty of obtaining funds where a good level of security is involved but, I believe, it will continue to get more expensive for riskier business. This is how it should be and how it used to be. Once the dust settles it will be a good time to invest and we may then see more sovereign wealth fund interest. All we need is some good timing.(easier said than done).
cobras - 24 Apr 2008 23:37 - 81 of 331
HELLO GUYS,,ANYONE HAVE INFORMATION OF NORTHERN ROCK COMPESATION, APRECIATE ANY FEED BACK!!!!1
maestro - 25 Apr 2008 00:14 - 82 of 331
ANYONE SEEN THE MASSIVE LOAN PLACARDS IN SAINSBURYS...THEY SEEM TO BE GIVING MONEY AWAY LIKE WATER EVEN IF THE BANKS AREN'T
Kayak
- 25 Apr 2008 00:18
- 83 of 331
cobras, there isn't any, unless future court action is successful. See http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3803540.ece. The government's position is that the firm would have been bankrupt if they hadn't helped it. A lot of water still to go under the bridge.
hewittalan6
- 26 Apr 2008 07:41
- 84 of 331
Following on from post 77.
A particular mortgage broker / club announced on Friday, a restructuring of its business in order to reduce overheads and costs.
While not (quite) as big as Charcol, it is still well inside the top 10 in the UK, and is backed by the Skipton B.Soc.
All are very insecure at the moment.
Meanwhile, the dullards at the FSA are not helping matters at all. They are known throughout the financial world as the "business prevention unit" and they are living up to their name.
Lenders and brokers alike are needing to reduce costs and overheads. If they can, then mortgage product can be made a little cheaper, and criteria can be loosened a little. More affordable and easier lending is what the economy is on its knees begging for. The FSA reaction is to increase paperwork and make lending harder.
Latest focuses include;
Affordability. Income multipliers are not necessarily enough, now. A full investigation of expenditure is now required on all but the cleanest cut cases. This increases documentary evidence and the time spent processing any cases. The reason is that the FSA believe people who cannot afford their mortgage are not to blame. The lender and broker are, and should be sued for bad advice!! Lenders and brokers therefore have to pull in their horns, have huge amounts of paperwork to back up their advice and set aside large amounts of capital to deal with the unjust complaints.
Interest only. These mortgages were popular among first time buyers who could just afford the interest, but not the full repayment mortgage. It got them on the ladder. The FSA believe this is bad advice and interest only should never be recommended or sold unless there is full evidence of sufficient savings to repay the debt. This is leading many brokers and lenders to walk away from loans where interest only is the best or only option, for fear of reprisals.
Because of this, professional indemnity insurance companies are raising premiums dramatically.
End result? Higher costs and less lending than ever.
Why? Because the FSA, in their wisdom, do not believe the customer can work out for themselves if they can afford a bill. It must be the bank or broker to blame.
It is time that the FSA was disbanded for good, the financial regulation areas was handed to a branch of the fraud office (because that is the only area where government should interfere with peoples personal finances) and we taught the population that the freedom they cherish so much includes the freedom to get it wrong and make mistakes without blaming the world and uncle Tom Cobleigh for their mistakes.
Rant over. (For now).
A particular mortgage broker / club announced on Friday, a restructuring of its business in order to reduce overheads and costs.
While not (quite) as big as Charcol, it is still well inside the top 10 in the UK, and is backed by the Skipton B.Soc.
All are very insecure at the moment.
Meanwhile, the dullards at the FSA are not helping matters at all. They are known throughout the financial world as the "business prevention unit" and they are living up to their name.
Lenders and brokers alike are needing to reduce costs and overheads. If they can, then mortgage product can be made a little cheaper, and criteria can be loosened a little. More affordable and easier lending is what the economy is on its knees begging for. The FSA reaction is to increase paperwork and make lending harder.
Latest focuses include;
Affordability. Income multipliers are not necessarily enough, now. A full investigation of expenditure is now required on all but the cleanest cut cases. This increases documentary evidence and the time spent processing any cases. The reason is that the FSA believe people who cannot afford their mortgage are not to blame. The lender and broker are, and should be sued for bad advice!! Lenders and brokers therefore have to pull in their horns, have huge amounts of paperwork to back up their advice and set aside large amounts of capital to deal with the unjust complaints.
Interest only. These mortgages were popular among first time buyers who could just afford the interest, but not the full repayment mortgage. It got them on the ladder. The FSA believe this is bad advice and interest only should never be recommended or sold unless there is full evidence of sufficient savings to repay the debt. This is leading many brokers and lenders to walk away from loans where interest only is the best or only option, for fear of reprisals.
Because of this, professional indemnity insurance companies are raising premiums dramatically.
End result? Higher costs and less lending than ever.
Why? Because the FSA, in their wisdom, do not believe the customer can work out for themselves if they can afford a bill. It must be the bank or broker to blame.
It is time that the FSA was disbanded for good, the financial regulation areas was handed to a branch of the fraud office (because that is the only area where government should interfere with peoples personal finances) and we taught the population that the freedom they cherish so much includes the freedom to get it wrong and make mistakes without blaming the world and uncle Tom Cobleigh for their mistakes.
Rant over. (For now).
Joe Say
- 26 Apr 2008 08:11
- 85 of 331
Hewitt - Whilst I am the last supporter of the FSA (they didn't see/act on Northern Crock, and god knows how many share advances ahead of news), I think you are bing disingenious.
The facts in the real world are that there are an awful lot of people out there who don't think the facts through properly (even if they are in possession of them, and given the way estate agents/brokers frenzy feed off clients, that can be excused), and even if they do are overwhelmed by the pressure to get on the housing ladder etc, that somebody needs to ensure that sense prevails.
Ironically, you haven't thought the effects through yourself of bad advice - ultimately it ends in exactly the credit crisis we are seeing now. Thus, rather than adding to costs, it is this protective behaviour in the long run that will help keep them down.
But no doubt you've a vested interest/myopia, like the boards/managers that run our banks at present !
The facts in the real world are that there are an awful lot of people out there who don't think the facts through properly (even if they are in possession of them, and given the way estate agents/brokers frenzy feed off clients, that can be excused), and even if they do are overwhelmed by the pressure to get on the housing ladder etc, that somebody needs to ensure that sense prevails.
Ironically, you haven't thought the effects through yourself of bad advice - ultimately it ends in exactly the credit crisis we are seeing now. Thus, rather than adding to costs, it is this protective behaviour in the long run that will help keep them down.
But no doubt you've a vested interest/myopia, like the boards/managers that run our banks at present !
hewittalan6
- 26 Apr 2008 11:08
- 86 of 331
Joe,
Inevitably, that kind of fuzzy thinking leads to more of the nanny state we all moan about now.
Is it McDonalds fault all our kids are porkers, or is it the fault of the parents?
Is it Tetleys fault when some 19 year old gets pissed and kills himself crossing a road?
Yes I have a vested interest in smooth running financial markets. We all do. I also have a vested interest in the NHS, even though I am not unwell. Yes I work in the industry.
Do you realise the industry is more heavily regulated, and with more beaurocracy than the NHS? Or education? But it patently does not work, otherwise the problems would not be here. May I venture to suggest that when massive regulation fails, more regulation is unlikely to improve matters.
Myopia is currently the preserve of those who argue regulation should increase or keep the status quo. Its effect, as proven by recent events, is the opposite of what we all want - better services.
The effect of increasing the burden is to increase costs, but you lot don't want to pay large fees for advice. You want it free or cheap. The result is that as costs rise disproportionatly, advisors get paid less and less. Lower salaries result in, you guessed it, worse advisors as the better ones head off to earn real money.
Result - lower quality advisors = lower quality advice = greater regulation, and on it goes.
Tell me if you go to the supermarket and buy a tin of beans. Does the retailer employ someone to stand there telling you that they are full of protein, but to be wary of the salt and sugar quantity? No?
Of course not, but will you sue them when your heart gives out?
No. Thats ridiculous. You can read on the tin and make your own mind up. If you can't understand it you can always ask a nutritionalist.
With financial services you expect an expert to tell you all about it. Thats fine. You cannot expect him to judge whether you can always afford it.
And remember, all mortgages come with legal advice. You have no excuse for not understanding it, unlike the beans.
No. There are 3 areas of the law that apply in almost all circumstances that the government ride roughshod over in this arena.
Volenti non fit injuras. You know the risks of a long term contract. If your circumstances change, how can you blame someone else? You voluntarily run the risk.
Res ipsa locquiter. You have all the details and access to legal advice, it is all written down and signed by you. Providing the contract doesn't change, how can you complain. Let the facts speak for themselves.
Caveat Emptor. Let the buyer beware. No advisor ever holds a gun to anyones head. They advise, you decide.
If we really want better service and a cleaner industry, then lets reduce the governance. Let the market decide acceptable lending and let the market pay for quality advisory and underwriting staff. That may stop another credit crisis. Employing advisors and underwriters on McWages definitely wont.
Alan
Inevitably, that kind of fuzzy thinking leads to more of the nanny state we all moan about now.
Is it McDonalds fault all our kids are porkers, or is it the fault of the parents?
Is it Tetleys fault when some 19 year old gets pissed and kills himself crossing a road?
Yes I have a vested interest in smooth running financial markets. We all do. I also have a vested interest in the NHS, even though I am not unwell. Yes I work in the industry.
Do you realise the industry is more heavily regulated, and with more beaurocracy than the NHS? Or education? But it patently does not work, otherwise the problems would not be here. May I venture to suggest that when massive regulation fails, more regulation is unlikely to improve matters.
Myopia is currently the preserve of those who argue regulation should increase or keep the status quo. Its effect, as proven by recent events, is the opposite of what we all want - better services.
The effect of increasing the burden is to increase costs, but you lot don't want to pay large fees for advice. You want it free or cheap. The result is that as costs rise disproportionatly, advisors get paid less and less. Lower salaries result in, you guessed it, worse advisors as the better ones head off to earn real money.
Result - lower quality advisors = lower quality advice = greater regulation, and on it goes.
Tell me if you go to the supermarket and buy a tin of beans. Does the retailer employ someone to stand there telling you that they are full of protein, but to be wary of the salt and sugar quantity? No?
Of course not, but will you sue them when your heart gives out?
No. Thats ridiculous. You can read on the tin and make your own mind up. If you can't understand it you can always ask a nutritionalist.
With financial services you expect an expert to tell you all about it. Thats fine. You cannot expect him to judge whether you can always afford it.
And remember, all mortgages come with legal advice. You have no excuse for not understanding it, unlike the beans.
No. There are 3 areas of the law that apply in almost all circumstances that the government ride roughshod over in this arena.
Volenti non fit injuras. You know the risks of a long term contract. If your circumstances change, how can you blame someone else? You voluntarily run the risk.
Res ipsa locquiter. You have all the details and access to legal advice, it is all written down and signed by you. Providing the contract doesn't change, how can you complain. Let the facts speak for themselves.
Caveat Emptor. Let the buyer beware. No advisor ever holds a gun to anyones head. They advise, you decide.
If we really want better service and a cleaner industry, then lets reduce the governance. Let the market decide acceptable lending and let the market pay for quality advisory and underwriting staff. That may stop another credit crisis. Employing advisors and underwriters on McWages definitely wont.
Alan
hewittalan6
- 26 Apr 2008 11:19
- 87 of 331
BTW, Joe.
Had my staff advised people 10 years ago not to take an interest only mortgage, but stay renting instead, you would have been at the front of the queue to sue the arse off everyone I ever met, because that advice would ahve been shockingly bad. It would have lost them thousands.
You now argue we should have done exactly that for the last few years!!
Tell you what. We will follow it to its logical conclusion and my company will be responsible for any change in circumstances ever, regardless of how outrageous they are.
When someone dies and their wife can no longer afford the mortgage because they cancelled the life cover we insisted on, that will be our fault.
Might sound stupid, but it is not nearly as stupid as arguing we should have foreseen the current economic climate several years ago. The first is predictable. The second was not.
And think through your argument about someone taking responsibility for talking sense to these people. If I had told a young couple 10 years ago not to buy a house, they couldn't afford it, do you really believe they would have agreed and stayed put? Get real.
They would have trotted off to the local branch of the Halifax and taken whatever they could get. They would have been in the same mess, because banks do not advise, but I would have saved them a few quid in the meantime by ensuring they got the best possible deal in the UK. Yet somehow I am a pantomime villain for that? Strange.
Had my staff advised people 10 years ago not to take an interest only mortgage, but stay renting instead, you would have been at the front of the queue to sue the arse off everyone I ever met, because that advice would ahve been shockingly bad. It would have lost them thousands.
You now argue we should have done exactly that for the last few years!!
Tell you what. We will follow it to its logical conclusion and my company will be responsible for any change in circumstances ever, regardless of how outrageous they are.
When someone dies and their wife can no longer afford the mortgage because they cancelled the life cover we insisted on, that will be our fault.
Might sound stupid, but it is not nearly as stupid as arguing we should have foreseen the current economic climate several years ago. The first is predictable. The second was not.
And think through your argument about someone taking responsibility for talking sense to these people. If I had told a young couple 10 years ago not to buy a house, they couldn't afford it, do you really believe they would have agreed and stayed put? Get real.
They would have trotted off to the local branch of the Halifax and taken whatever they could get. They would have been in the same mess, because banks do not advise, but I would have saved them a few quid in the meantime by ensuring they got the best possible deal in the UK. Yet somehow I am a pantomime villain for that? Strange.
Guscavalier
- 26 Apr 2008 11:33
- 88 of 331
Agree with what to say Alan. Unfortunately too many people have been encouraged to have what they like. Many can not be bothered to read what is on the tin. Many people, myself included have ranted on to friends, relatives etc about the dangers of excessive debt. It can be better to go without unnecessary things rather than build up debt. Unfortunately, it is times like these that hard lessons are learnt.
Interesting article on http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/ about buy to let and embodying a comment by Katie Tucker of John Charcol. You did say "watch this space" re John Charcol the other day.
Interesting article on http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/ about buy to let and embodying a comment by Katie Tucker of John Charcol. You did say "watch this space" re John Charcol the other day.
hewittalan6
- 26 Apr 2008 12:24
- 89 of 331
Can't find the reference to Ms Tucker at the mo, Gus, but keep watching. Rumours are rife and growing.
Guscavalier
- 26 Apr 2008 13:17
- 90 of 331
Ian, re Times online article-Katie Tucker- "after another week of turmoil in mortgage markets novice landlords now face huge difficulties securing a loan and thousands of existing landlords coming to the end of fixed-rate deals will find it very expensive to switch mortgage providers if they have not built up 75% equity in their buy-to-let property".
Business is on the wane - keeping watch.
Business is on the wane - keeping watch.
2517GEORGE
- 27 Apr 2008 19:46
- 91 of 331
Looks like HBOS could be next up to the trough for around 6b.
2517
2517
mitzy - 30 Apr 2008 09:40 - 92 of 331
My target for HBOS is 300p the rights issue will only add problems to a worsening housing market.
robertalexander
- 30 Apr 2008 12:17
- 93 of 331
I have asked for my bank divis to be paid in shares as opposed to cash.
Where can I find out how many shares I will get for my divi. I know how much divi per share is but don't know what price they use for the share valuation. i.e. - is the SP at ex-divi date or SP when divi is paid [or another price ?]
Alex
Where can I find out how many shares I will get for my divi. I know how much divi per share is but don't know what price they use for the share valuation. i.e. - is the SP at ex-divi date or SP when divi is paid [or another price ?]
Alex
hewittalan6
- 30 Apr 2008 17:27
- 94 of 331
RBS / Natwest / One Account has cut fixed rates to new borrowers by up to 0.3%.
The begining of the end of the crisis? No, but perhaps the end of the begining.
They have signalled that this is in response to maintaining an increased market share. This shows how many lenders have disappeared from the market.
I fully expect other lenders to follow suit, and indeed know of several who have deals on "withdrawl watch".
The begining of the end will be signalled by relaxing criteria and higher loan to values. That will not come for some time yet.
The begining of the end of the crisis? No, but perhaps the end of the begining.
They have signalled that this is in response to maintaining an increased market share. This shows how many lenders have disappeared from the market.
I fully expect other lenders to follow suit, and indeed know of several who have deals on "withdrawl watch".
The begining of the end will be signalled by relaxing criteria and higher loan to values. That will not come for some time yet.
kimoldfield
- 30 Apr 2008 19:31
- 95 of 331
Alex,
The share price is the average of the middle market quotations for the companys shares as derived from the London Stock Exchange Daily Official List for the five business days commencing the day on which the shares were first quoted ex dividend.
The share price is the average of the middle market quotations for the companys shares as derived from the London Stock Exchange Daily Official List for the five business days commencing the day on which the shares were first quoted ex dividend.
robertalexander
- 01 May 2008 08:19
- 96 of 331
Kim
many thanks
Alex
many thanks
Alex
webster frank - 01 May 2008 09:52 - 97 of 331
got 850k from house sale,need to put it in a high interest ac, will n.rock guarrantee all of it even if i am a new customer, anyone know?
halifax - 01 May 2008 10:02 - 98 of 331
Why not ask them?
hewittalan6
- 01 May 2008 10:08
- 99 of 331
No.
mitzy - 01 May 2008 11:09 - 100 of 331
Buy petrol in bulk.
webster frank - 01 May 2008 12:38 - 101 of 331
halifax, have tried ,the silence is can make you deaf!
Kayak
- 01 May 2008 15:22
- 102 of 331
Why not look at their website, webster? The answer is covered in detail.
hewittalan6
- 01 May 2008 15:47
- 103 of 331
Abbey are now following RBoS, only not quite as far.
This looks like the start of a turnround in policy across the banks. They were fighting to ensure they were not exposed as a lender of choice and now they appear to be positioning themselves to be more attractive.
This is a good sign, as it will encourage the niche lenders to dip their collective toes back in to sub prime markets and prime lenders to eventually stop competing on price and start to compete again on criteria.
Whos next?
My guess is for the HBOS group to extend its existing customer range to new customers.
This looks like the start of a turnround in policy across the banks. They were fighting to ensure they were not exposed as a lender of choice and now they appear to be positioning themselves to be more attractive.
This is a good sign, as it will encourage the niche lenders to dip their collective toes back in to sub prime markets and prime lenders to eventually stop competing on price and start to compete again on criteria.
Whos next?
My guess is for the HBOS group to extend its existing customer range to new customers.
hewittalan6
- 01 May 2008 15:50
- 104 of 331
And now the Chelsea have pulled their deals, from tonight. No idea what the new ones will be, up or down, but they are changing.
hewittalan6
- 02 May 2008 09:23
- 105 of 331
My opinion, FWIW.
The first stage in the rehabilitation of the consumer lending markets is underway.
Within the industry, the word exposure is gradually being replaced by the word compete. As a caveat to that, this does not yet apply to new build and BTL, or to sub prime, but it does to <90% LTV.
Because of this, I think its time to go long on banks (except Barc). The timing may not be perfect, but the future is brighter than people may believe.
For many lenders, margins are up and volumes are between 10 + 20% higher, due to a disproportionate reduction in the number of lendes compared to the amount of cash being lent out.
We all read of lower mortgage approval rates, but it should be remembered that the lenders who have disappeared accounted for almost 40% of lending last year. Those that are left have a bigger slice.
Lenders are also suggesting that while houses are admitedly not selling, prices are more robust than predicted by their risk management teams, and while prices may not rise at all, the drop predictions are getting smaller as liquidity starts to very slowly return.
Stage 2 of the rehabilitation will be signalled by lenders relaxing LTV criteria on new builds. These are currently restricted by some lenders to 65% as they fear that the exposure would be too great when one adds the possible fall in value to the premium loss suffered when a new home becomes a "2nd hand" one. When this restriction moves to a more reasonable rate, I think it will signal banking confidence that a crash is not on the cards any more.
Stage 3 will then be a slow return of higher risk lending as property markets start to edge higher and lenders are more comfortable lending to equity.
It could, of course, all stall if the wider economy slows too much, but most of the factors causing the poor outlook are related directly to financial turmoil.
Having said all the above, Yesterday saw one minor lender close its doors, and one major player (GE Capital) pull out of the BTL market, so it is still finely balanced, and Barc seem to have an internal rift on how or indeed if, to capitalise on its position as a lender with an increased market share.
But for me, banks are now underpriced given the way they are relaxing a bit.
All IMO, DYOR etc, etc.
The first stage in the rehabilitation of the consumer lending markets is underway.
Within the industry, the word exposure is gradually being replaced by the word compete. As a caveat to that, this does not yet apply to new build and BTL, or to sub prime, but it does to <90% LTV.
Because of this, I think its time to go long on banks (except Barc). The timing may not be perfect, but the future is brighter than people may believe.
For many lenders, margins are up and volumes are between 10 + 20% higher, due to a disproportionate reduction in the number of lendes compared to the amount of cash being lent out.
We all read of lower mortgage approval rates, but it should be remembered that the lenders who have disappeared accounted for almost 40% of lending last year. Those that are left have a bigger slice.
Lenders are also suggesting that while houses are admitedly not selling, prices are more robust than predicted by their risk management teams, and while prices may not rise at all, the drop predictions are getting smaller as liquidity starts to very slowly return.
Stage 2 of the rehabilitation will be signalled by lenders relaxing LTV criteria on new builds. These are currently restricted by some lenders to 65% as they fear that the exposure would be too great when one adds the possible fall in value to the premium loss suffered when a new home becomes a "2nd hand" one. When this restriction moves to a more reasonable rate, I think it will signal banking confidence that a crash is not on the cards any more.
Stage 3 will then be a slow return of higher risk lending as property markets start to edge higher and lenders are more comfortable lending to equity.
It could, of course, all stall if the wider economy slows too much, but most of the factors causing the poor outlook are related directly to financial turmoil.
Having said all the above, Yesterday saw one minor lender close its doors, and one major player (GE Capital) pull out of the BTL market, so it is still finely balanced, and Barc seem to have an internal rift on how or indeed if, to capitalise on its position as a lender with an increased market share.
But for me, banks are now underpriced given the way they are relaxing a bit.
All IMO, DYOR etc, etc.
hlyeo98 - 03 May 2008 18:47 - 106 of 331
Analysts yesterday heaped further pressure on Barclays by predicting a 3 billion capital raising this month, on top of 3 billion in further writedowns, and the payment of a paper, rather than cash, dividend.
The note from analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort came amid speculation that Barclayss chief operating officer was departing because of infighting at the top of the bank and an absence of merger and acquisition activity. Paul Idzik will step down later this year.
Barclays has so far played down the possibility of a cash injection, despite plans by Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and HBOS to raise 12 billion and 4 billion respectively in rights issues to bolster their capital cushions.
Dresdner yesterday downgraded Barclays from hold to reduce, ahead of the banks first quarter update on May 15. James Invine, banks analyst, said a further 3 billion in writedowns would drop Barclayss equity Tier 1 ratio a measure of financial strength to 4.7 per cent. RBSs rights issue will boost its ratio to 6 per cent and HBOS is aiming for closer to 7 per cent.
The note from analysts at Dresdner Kleinwort came amid speculation that Barclayss chief operating officer was departing because of infighting at the top of the bank and an absence of merger and acquisition activity. Paul Idzik will step down later this year.
Barclays has so far played down the possibility of a cash injection, despite plans by Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and HBOS to raise 12 billion and 4 billion respectively in rights issues to bolster their capital cushions.
Dresdner yesterday downgraded Barclays from hold to reduce, ahead of the banks first quarter update on May 15. James Invine, banks analyst, said a further 3 billion in writedowns would drop Barclayss equity Tier 1 ratio a measure of financial strength to 4.7 per cent. RBSs rights issue will boost its ratio to 6 per cent and HBOS is aiming for closer to 7 per cent.
Guscavalier
- 04 May 2008 09:17
- 107 of 331
Baclays may well be stalling to allow the RBOS and HBOS rights issues to be digested by the market first. Moreover, they may be in discussions with Sovereign Wealth investors as an alternative. It is mentioned in the press today that proposals to pay dividends in shares will present problems for income orientated investment funds,which has or may result in these Funds having to reduced their exposure to the sector.
hewittalan6
- 06 May 2008 21:03
- 108 of 331
Very interesting weekend on the secured lending front.
A whole raft of new product has been launched across the market. Nothing earthshattering, but a slight lowering of rates, or of tracker margins, or of SVR.
Then today we have Merrill Lynchs' UK commercial landing arm closing its doors to new business and RBS deciding not to accept any more Buy To Let applications from "professional" landlords. Amateurs only should apply.
What this signals, I haven't worked out yet, but I'll be speaking to those who know better than I!!!!
A whole raft of new product has been launched across the market. Nothing earthshattering, but a slight lowering of rates, or of tracker margins, or of SVR.
Then today we have Merrill Lynchs' UK commercial landing arm closing its doors to new business and RBS deciding not to accept any more Buy To Let applications from "professional" landlords. Amateurs only should apply.
What this signals, I haven't worked out yet, but I'll be speaking to those who know better than I!!!!
hewittalan6
- 07 May 2008 11:11
- 109 of 331
Hot off the press.....
Merril Lynch's UK sub prime residential arm is no longer accepting applications for secured lending.
Merril Lynch's UK sub prime residential arm is no longer accepting applications for secured lending.
spitfire43 - 09 May 2008 20:40 - 110 of 331
I have copied and pasted a shares article written on 16th August 2007, it draws heavily from Sandy Chen from Panmure Gordon. It's well worth reading because it shows that at the time he really had a grasp of future problems instore for banks.
Published date:Thursday, August 16, 2007
UK banks have been slow to confess how exposed they are to the current bad debt crisis but an apocalyptic note from stockbroker Panmure Gordon suggests they could have around 80 billion of loans at risk.
Banking analyst Sandy Chen says these debts are wrapped up with many others in exotic packages ranging from Credit Derivative Products (CDPs) to Asset Backed Commercial Paper Obligations (ABCPOs)
Too much cheap money has resulted in over-lending to high-risk borrowers. Worst of all, the banks dont know what is in the various packages and the extent of their liabilities. The Bank of England last month instructed the clearing banks to clean up their act. They were given the quarter day as a deadline (September 31) to identify and write-down bad debts. Some of these loans will have to be taken on board by the banks.
Chen says the European bank with the largest exposure is Dutch giant ABN Amro with 27 billion. So buying the bank for around
40 billion could prove a poisoned chalice for bidders Barclays (BARC) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).
Barclays is already up to its ears in dodgy debt, says Chen. He estimates it could be owed 25 billion substantially more than its capital reserves of 19 billion which would make it the most exposed UK bank.
RBS is relatively safe with only 6 billion at risk, representing a sixth of its capital. Lloyds TSB (LLOY) has 11 billion poor quality loans only a fraction under its 11.5 billion capital. HBOS (HBOS) has
20 billion and 22 billion capital, while giant HSBC (HSBA) is not too exposed at 15 billion against 55 billion capital, according to Chen.
The good news is that probably just a fifth of these low-quality loans will never be repaid, totalling some 15 billion and spread over several years. But banks will need to raise extra capital from rights issues and/or selling stakes to better capitalised competitors in the Far East.
Chen has had to field some irate phone calls from the banks after his estimations. The problem is there is no disclosure. There is a lack of clarity about their ABCPOs and likely asset impairment charges. The over-arching risk is the drying up of liquidity. The banks will probably have to use their cash to top up their own products, which means less to lend to companies, he said.
Shares says: A fully blown financial crisis is still unlikely but the banks will come under more pressure.
Published date:Thursday, August 16, 2007
UK banks have been slow to confess how exposed they are to the current bad debt crisis but an apocalyptic note from stockbroker Panmure Gordon suggests they could have around 80 billion of loans at risk.
Banking analyst Sandy Chen says these debts are wrapped up with many others in exotic packages ranging from Credit Derivative Products (CDPs) to Asset Backed Commercial Paper Obligations (ABCPOs)
Too much cheap money has resulted in over-lending to high-risk borrowers. Worst of all, the banks dont know what is in the various packages and the extent of their liabilities. The Bank of England last month instructed the clearing banks to clean up their act. They were given the quarter day as a deadline (September 31) to identify and write-down bad debts. Some of these loans will have to be taken on board by the banks.
Chen says the European bank with the largest exposure is Dutch giant ABN Amro with 27 billion. So buying the bank for around
40 billion could prove a poisoned chalice for bidders Barclays (BARC) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).
Barclays is already up to its ears in dodgy debt, says Chen. He estimates it could be owed 25 billion substantially more than its capital reserves of 19 billion which would make it the most exposed UK bank.
RBS is relatively safe with only 6 billion at risk, representing a sixth of its capital. Lloyds TSB (LLOY) has 11 billion poor quality loans only a fraction under its 11.5 billion capital. HBOS (HBOS) has
20 billion and 22 billion capital, while giant HSBC (HSBA) is not too exposed at 15 billion against 55 billion capital, according to Chen.
The good news is that probably just a fifth of these low-quality loans will never be repaid, totalling some 15 billion and spread over several years. But banks will need to raise extra capital from rights issues and/or selling stakes to better capitalised competitors in the Far East.
Chen has had to field some irate phone calls from the banks after his estimations. The problem is there is no disclosure. There is a lack of clarity about their ABCPOs and likely asset impairment charges. The over-arching risk is the drying up of liquidity. The banks will probably have to use their cash to top up their own products, which means less to lend to companies, he said.
Shares says: A fully blown financial crisis is still unlikely but the banks will come under more pressure.
spitfire43 - 09 May 2008 20:53 - 111 of 331
My reason for posting the above at this time, is because of Panmure Gordon ( Sandy Chen ) latest reccommendations. Firstly RBS which they have as a sell with 195p price target, Second BB. which is a sell and price target of 135p.
Position they have on banks are below, to the best of my knowledge, please correct me if any are incorrect.
RBS, 23 April, Sell, Price Target 195p.
BB., 24 April, Sell, Price Target 135p.
HBOS, 30 April, Sell, Price target 350p.
BARC, 19 Feb, Sell, Price Target ?????
LLOY, 7 May, Hold, Price Target ?????
AL. 20 March, Sell, Price Target ?????
HSBC, 28 Jan, Sell, Price Target ?????
I will certainly keep a close eye on his updates and opinion.
Position they have on banks are below, to the best of my knowledge, please correct me if any are incorrect.
RBS, 23 April, Sell, Price Target 195p.
BB., 24 April, Sell, Price Target 135p.
HBOS, 30 April, Sell, Price target 350p.
BARC, 19 Feb, Sell, Price Target ?????
LLOY, 7 May, Hold, Price Target ?????
AL. 20 March, Sell, Price Target ?????
HSBC, 28 Jan, Sell, Price Target ?????
I will certainly keep a close eye on his updates and opinion.
Falcothou - 09 May 2008 21:57 - 112 of 331
Looks like Mr. Chen did good research or had an excellent crystal ball!
spitfire43 - 11 May 2008 10:59 - 113 of 331
I hope his crystal ball is still working, I was looking at RBS with a view to purchase at some point. But will hold off and follow Mr Chens recommendations closely.
hewittalan6
- 13 May 2008 08:50
- 114 of 331
More hot off the press news.
Several large lenders are to reduce fixed rates this week, including Nationwide and Halifax, while Skipton is offering a USA LIBOR tracker.
As I stated previously, this is a signal of the lending market starting to be more competative. When margins are so tight that further reductions are not economically viable, then criteria relaxing will start, in order to attract business.
Rates offered are as 5.85% or less for medium term fixes, with small fees and there is little margin left after that.
A report from Hometrack has also caught my eye. It claims remortgage volumes are down only 3% and that the mortgage market remains healthy. It goes on to say a wide disparity between lenders performance is hiding the true overall performance and that the media are making a potentially bad situation into a crisis by creating a self fulfilling prophecy.
Overall, I am confident the worst is behind us, and it is not as bad as the reports would have us believe.
Time will tell.
Several large lenders are to reduce fixed rates this week, including Nationwide and Halifax, while Skipton is offering a USA LIBOR tracker.
As I stated previously, this is a signal of the lending market starting to be more competative. When margins are so tight that further reductions are not economically viable, then criteria relaxing will start, in order to attract business.
Rates offered are as 5.85% or less for medium term fixes, with small fees and there is little margin left after that.
A report from Hometrack has also caught my eye. It claims remortgage volumes are down only 3% and that the mortgage market remains healthy. It goes on to say a wide disparity between lenders performance is hiding the true overall performance and that the media are making a potentially bad situation into a crisis by creating a self fulfilling prophecy.
Overall, I am confident the worst is behind us, and it is not as bad as the reports would have us believe.
Time will tell.
halifax - 13 May 2008 08:53 - 115 of 331
Suggest you read RNS today released by GFRD which gives their view of the new build housing sector.
hewittalan6
- 13 May 2008 09:05
- 116 of 331
New build always suffers more and longer than any other sector of the market due to the simple fact they overprice their houses by as much as 20%, and many have business models that rely on investors buying off plan over the last decade or so.
It is the first area lenders turn the screw on, by reducing available LTV.
This has been magnified in this cycle because a larger percentage than ever before of new builds are aimed at first time buyers, who have no equity from previous purchases, and so restricted deposits.
The lending market as a whole has not yet suffered the meltdown many predicted, and now looks unlikely to. When the lenders recover confidence, so will the housing market. When that moves, so will new builds, but they are quite aware they are last on the list.
Lenders keep saying the same thing to me. They have more applications than they can deal with and so are cherry picking the lowest risks and keeping margins high. New build is high risk lending.
It is the first area lenders turn the screw on, by reducing available LTV.
This has been magnified in this cycle because a larger percentage than ever before of new builds are aimed at first time buyers, who have no equity from previous purchases, and so restricted deposits.
The lending market as a whole has not yet suffered the meltdown many predicted, and now looks unlikely to. When the lenders recover confidence, so will the housing market. When that moves, so will new builds, but they are quite aware they are last on the list.
Lenders keep saying the same thing to me. They have more applications than they can deal with and so are cherry picking the lowest risks and keeping margins high. New build is high risk lending.
halifax - 13 May 2008 09:09 - 117 of 331
If that is the case why do the banks finance the builders building new houses?
partridge
- 13 May 2008 09:19
- 118 of 331
Think you will find most new builders only working on existing sites. Banks in a pickle because their greed on exotic "trading portfolio assets" has stretched their own capital resources and until these rebuild they just do not have the funds to support other than the bare minimum (and most profitable) of deals.
hewittalan6
- 13 May 2008 09:37
- 119 of 331
Halifax,
The banks have the problem that not financing the builders means builders going bust, owing them a fortune. Their finance to them is not being extended and the conditions are more onerous. The builders are not starting new developments, but do need help with completing existing ones.
This is why some sites can offer 90% mortgages through a particular lender when the lender only lends to 75% on new builds generally. Its a case of risk management, and the risk of the builder going under is higher to the bank than the risk of a few dozen borrowers defaulting.
Partridge,
Most big lenders are reporting higher volumes of lending. The issue is there are fewer lender to share the burden. 2007 saw 150 Billion of secured lending. Since then lenders responsible for 52 Billion of that have closed their books.
The higher volume of applications they are therefore dealing with is causing problems of service as much as money. To counteract this they make their rates and criteria unattractive, leading to a lower level of applications. This keeps service standards high (as demanded by the FSA), margins high and has the added advantage of ensuring they do not over commit or take unnecessary risks.
As service levels normalise, and the higher margins make more money available, lending will relax, but new builds will still be bottom of the pile until surveyors regain confidence in house prices in general.
The banks have the problem that not financing the builders means builders going bust, owing them a fortune. Their finance to them is not being extended and the conditions are more onerous. The builders are not starting new developments, but do need help with completing existing ones.
This is why some sites can offer 90% mortgages through a particular lender when the lender only lends to 75% on new builds generally. Its a case of risk management, and the risk of the builder going under is higher to the bank than the risk of a few dozen borrowers defaulting.
Partridge,
Most big lenders are reporting higher volumes of lending. The issue is there are fewer lender to share the burden. 2007 saw 150 Billion of secured lending. Since then lenders responsible for 52 Billion of that have closed their books.
The higher volume of applications they are therefore dealing with is causing problems of service as much as money. To counteract this they make their rates and criteria unattractive, leading to a lower level of applications. This keeps service standards high (as demanded by the FSA), margins high and has the added advantage of ensuring they do not over commit or take unnecessary risks.
As service levels normalise, and the higher margins make more money available, lending will relax, but new builds will still be bottom of the pile until surveyors regain confidence in house prices in general.
hewittalan6
- 13 May 2008 10:22
- 120 of 331
Interesting that Redrow are placing particular emphasis for its poor performance on restricted lending policies. They also say cancellations are over 20%.
I would suggest that these cancellations are not due to people not wishing to buy. They are due to speculators buying off plan and then cancelling because losing the deposit is cheaper than selling at less than they would pay, or because they cannot get a mortgage for the balance, and FTB who deposited early, when 100%+ lending was available, only to find they now need a 25% deposit they do not have, or that on valuation, the surveyor is undervaluing the property and the buyer and builder cannot agree a new price.
All IMO.
I would suggest that these cancellations are not due to people not wishing to buy. They are due to speculators buying off plan and then cancelling because losing the deposit is cheaper than selling at less than they would pay, or because they cannot get a mortgage for the balance, and FTB who deposited early, when 100%+ lending was available, only to find they now need a 25% deposit they do not have, or that on valuation, the surveyor is undervaluing the property and the buyer and builder cannot agree a new price.
All IMO.
hlyeo98 - 13 May 2008 10:25 - 121 of 331
Thanks for the target price. I feel the banks will drop much further.
halifax - 13 May 2008 10:49 - 122 of 331
Some banks are less exposed to the domestic property market than others but they all get "tarred with the same brush".
hlyeo98 - 14 May 2008 08:32 - 123 of 331
BB. today issued rights issue in spite of the statement below just a month ago.
Bradford & Bingley PLC
14 April 2008
Bradford & Bingley plc
Statement
Contrary to press speculation today, Bradford & Bingley announces that it is not
intending to issue equity capital by way of a rights issue or otherwise.
Bradford & Bingley has a strong capital base, above its regulatory requirements,
and as a result of the Board's conservative approach, has funded its business
activities through 2008 and into 2009. In the current market environment, the
Board will naturally continue to monitor closely the balance sheet strength of
the business and its funding plans.
As previously announced, Bradford & Bingley will release its Interim Management
Statement on 22 April.
Bradford & Bingley PLC
14 April 2008
Bradford & Bingley plc
Statement
Contrary to press speculation today, Bradford & Bingley announces that it is not
intending to issue equity capital by way of a rights issue or otherwise.
Bradford & Bingley has a strong capital base, above its regulatory requirements,
and as a result of the Board's conservative approach, has funded its business
activities through 2008 and into 2009. In the current market environment, the
Board will naturally continue to monitor closely the balance sheet strength of
the business and its funding plans.
As previously announced, Bradford & Bingley will release its Interim Management
Statement on 22 April.
hlyeo98 - 14 May 2008 08:45 - 124 of 331
82p per share...this is bad news. Trading continues in line with the April trading statement and interim dividend paid in shares?? Looks like BB. has run out of cash.
Bradford & Bingley to raise 300 mln pounds in 16 for 25 rights issue at 82 p/shr - AFX
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Bradford & Bingley Plc. said it will raise about 300 million pounds, net of expenses, in a 16 for 25 rights issue at an issue price of 82 pence per share.
This represents a 48 percent discount to the closing price of 158.75 pence per share on May 13, the UK mortgage lender said.
It added the proceeds of the rights issue will strengthen the group's capital position and mitigate the impact of the previously announced reductions in the value of some of its treasury investments.
The rights issue has been fully underwritten by Citi and UBS Ltd, Bradford & Bingley said, adding it has also revised its target Tier 1 ratio range to between 8 percent and 10 percent.
The company also said the 2008 interim dividend, due in October, will be paid in shares.
It added trading continues in line with the April trading statement.
Bradford & Bingley to raise 300 mln pounds in 16 for 25 rights issue at 82 p/shr - AFX
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Bradford & Bingley Plc. said it will raise about 300 million pounds, net of expenses, in a 16 for 25 rights issue at an issue price of 82 pence per share.
This represents a 48 percent discount to the closing price of 158.75 pence per share on May 13, the UK mortgage lender said.
It added the proceeds of the rights issue will strengthen the group's capital position and mitigate the impact of the previously announced reductions in the value of some of its treasury investments.
The rights issue has been fully underwritten by Citi and UBS Ltd, Bradford & Bingley said, adding it has also revised its target Tier 1 ratio range to between 8 percent and 10 percent.
The company also said the 2008 interim dividend, due in October, will be paid in shares.
It added trading continues in line with the April trading statement.
brianboru
- 14 May 2008 09:07
- 125 of 331
"the 2008 interim dividend, due in October, will be paid in shares."
Which means all share holdes end up with the same percentage of the company as they had before - so, what's the point? Why not just cancel the dividend?
halifax - 14 May 2008 09:11 - 126 of 331
Conserves cash for the company,shareholders can sell the divi shares in the market if they need cash.
Guscavalier
- 14 May 2008 09:13
- 127 of 331
True hlyeo98 it is bad news but at least we know at which level the underwriters are prepared to underwrite the stock. I expect they have made some strict assessments on future risks. Income funds will not be too pleased either about the dividend situation. Goes to show that not all high yielders are necessarily cheap. Still the rights issue may help draw a line under them and they may be a candidate for take over once it is felt the week housing market has been discounted sp 145p.I am not a holder at present.
brianboru
- 14 May 2008 09:18
- 128 of 331
Halifax - not issuing shares in lieu conserves cash too - it also saves the cost of issuance. The share price will just be diluted by the percentage of shares issued.
Also what about small shareholders who sell in the interim and end up just holding the dividend shares (maybe just 5 or 10 shares which cost more to sell then they're worth)?
halifax - 14 May 2008 09:34 - 129 of 331
Gus BB's much diminished market capitalisation must make them a prime takeover target for banks prepared to look 2/3 years ahead, just petty cash for say LloydsTsb.
halifax - 14 May 2008 09:42 - 130 of 331
Brian sending out dividend warrants costs money too, when shares go ex dividend the sp usually drops as cash has been paid out.
As regards small shareholders banks paying dividends will no doubt have in place a facility to sell shares on behalf of customers for a nominal sum or free of charge.
As regards small shareholders banks paying dividends will no doubt have in place a facility to sell shares on behalf of customers for a nominal sum or free of charge.
Guscavalier
- 14 May 2008 09:43
- 131 of 331
Tend to agree, if you wish to conserve cash, just cancel the dividend. Just pay the minimal yearly dividend which will enable the Company to maintain Trustee status. Otherwise you are dividing up the same pie but into smaller pieces. Perhaps paying the dividend in shares means that certain income funds do not have to sell their holdings.
Guscavalier
- 14 May 2008 09:52
- 132 of 331
halifax- I am following stock from a take over angle but, against the current housing market background we could see the sp fall further yet in short term.
halifax - 14 May 2008 10:00 - 133 of 331
I agree in the absence of bid talk sp is likely to drift down towards 130p. However their is an opportunity at that level to acquire a bank network very cheaply, who knows even CTT may be a candidate as they are applying for a banking licence and are heavily into sub prime lending!
brianboru
- 14 May 2008 10:47
- 134 of 331
Re: B&B's divi - Is the stock dividend subject to income tax?
Guscavalier
- 14 May 2008 10:47
- 135 of 331
mm. interesting thought.CTT seem mainly to be in personal finance and a merger of the 2 business would diversify the earnings base. I see CTT have been quick off the mark with their rights issue. No dithering there.
Guscavalier
- 14 May 2008 10:58
- 136 of 331
brianboru, I believe it is. Regarded as stock dividend and amount of tax based on value of shares issued at the time. Value stated by the Company at the time. Never liked them myself, much prefer to receive cash and makes administration easier for the shareholder.
Guscavalier
- 14 May 2008 11:08
- 137 of 331
brianboru, should also say that shares issued normally represent the net equivalent after tax but they have to go in the tax return in case they are taxable at the higher rate. Still worth a check in case this government has slipped some changes in somewhere.
halifax - 14 May 2008 11:16 - 138 of 331
The good news is BB rapidly becoming a penny share with an ex rights sp of around 120p based on current price.
Falcothou - 14 May 2008 17:39 - 139 of 331
From trades section noticed that someone sold or shorted 39 million RBS shares today, that's quite a few!
spitfire43 - 14 May 2008 18:10 - 140 of 331
I was surprised that lloy didn't take the opportunity to have a rights issue, over the next 6/12 month's there will be plenty of investment situations both in the UK and abroad. If lloy had stated this as the reason for a rights issue, I think the city would have looked on lloy very favourably.
BB. or AL. would be candidates in the UK, but I would think lloy would want to diversify abroad.
BB. or AL. would be candidates in the UK, but I would think lloy would want to diversify abroad.
Guscavalier
- 14 May 2008 21:00
- 141 of 331
lloy is my only holding at present in sector and I did wonder myself weather they would follow suit with a rights issue. Who knows, perhaps they are in the queue. If any acquisition did look favourable they could ask shareholders for funds at the same time. To the surprise of the market lloy and Barc both recently increased their dividends so I wonder if they would have done this if they were thinking of having a rights issue. In the case of Barc, there has been speculation that they may raise futher funds by selling a stake to a sovereign wealth fund.
spitfire43 - 14 May 2008 23:35 - 142 of 331
like you lloy is my only holding in the banking sector, I had a plan to buy into RBS but have changed my mind after reading that Sandy Chen from Panmure Gordon has just slapped a 190p price target on them. He is someone who has made very good calls throughout this credit crunch. It's a hard call now as to which other bank to invest in, still more pain to come I fear.
I certainly wouldn't buy into a bank that was going to pay out future dividends in shares. Doesn't leave alot of choice really, I will top up on more lloy soon hopefully.
I certainly wouldn't buy into a bank that was going to pay out future dividends in shares. Doesn't leave alot of choice really, I will top up on more lloy soon hopefully.
queen1 - 14 May 2008 23:41 - 143 of 331
Nobody on the thread seems to be paying much attention to HSBC. Their share price is pretty much where it was before the credit crunch hit and seems to be one of the better investments in the sector.
robertalexander
- 15 May 2008 08:19
- 144 of 331
why have rbs tanked today? i know the rights issue will reduce the SP but even so isn't this price a bit low. i have noted Sandy chen's comments and will leave on watch list as maybe further to fall i was just wondering why?
Alex
Alex
hlyeo98 - 15 May 2008 08:22 - 145 of 331
This is because the rights issue is seen as a dire decision or last resort to raise money. This is not normally a route taken by banks. The credit crunch is still far from over and further writedowns can certainly be expected.
hlyeo98 - 15 May 2008 08:45 - 146 of 331
Barclays unveils 1 bln pound credit-crunch hit, Q1 profits fall
Barclays Capital remained profitable overall during the period.
Barclays added that it expects its Tier One equity and capital ratios to be 'slightly lower' at the end of June than the 7.6 percent and 5.1 percent reported at the end of December.
The bank, widely seen as likely to follow rivals Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, HBOS PLC, and Bradford & Bingley PLC in launching a rights issue to bolster its capital, said the ratios would reach their target levels of 7.25 percent and 5.25 percent respectively 'in time'.
Barclays Capital remained profitable overall during the period.
Barclays added that it expects its Tier One equity and capital ratios to be 'slightly lower' at the end of June than the 7.6 percent and 5.1 percent reported at the end of December.
The bank, widely seen as likely to follow rivals Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, HBOS PLC, and Bradford & Bingley PLC in launching a rights issue to bolster its capital, said the ratios would reach their target levels of 7.25 percent and 5.25 percent respectively 'in time'.
hewittalan6
- 15 May 2008 08:52
- 147 of 331
5.1% is dangerously close to the minimum demanded by the FSA under capital adequacy rules of 5%.
halifax - 15 May 2008 09:01 - 148 of 331
Barclays state they are keeping their options open as regards capital raising.
kimoldfield
- 15 May 2008 09:06
- 149 of 331
Alex, the price has been adjusted because of the rights issue (RBSN presently trading at 68p/68.25p).
kimoldfield
- 15 May 2008 09:12
- 150 of 331
I should add that shareholders who have not yet received their rights issue documents will be selling some of their existing holding to pay for the new shares, rather than wait to receive/deal the rights document. I imagine that the sp will settle and rise a little over the next few days, but then again........ Sand Chen might just be right!
dealerdear - 15 May 2008 10:23 - 151 of 331
kimoldfield. My Nil Paid RBS rights haven't been credited to my account yet.
Am I right in thinking what you are saying is that they are trading today at around 68p?
Am I right in thinking what you are saying is that they are trading today at around 68p?
kimoldfield
- 15 May 2008 10:40
- 152 of 331
Dealer, yes they are trading today, trade low has been 64.5p,high 78.25p, present is 73.5/73.75.
I have a certficated holding and another in a nominee name, my nominee account has been credited with the rights and my postman has this minute delivered my certificated rights! Trade epic for the rights is RBSN
I have a certficated holding and another in a nominee name, my nominee account has been credited with the rights and my postman has this minute delivered my certificated rights! Trade epic for the rights is RBSN
kimoldfield
- 15 May 2008 10:41
- 153 of 331
Sorry, that should read RBSN
I have corrected it now.
I have corrected it now.
dealerdear - 15 May 2008 10:43 - 154 of 331
many thanks.
robertalexander
- 15 May 2008 12:07
- 155 of 331
anyone know what the average SP for LLOY was when they went ex-divi, so I can work out if they gave me enough shares and whether they are in profit or not. I assume you only get whole shares and what happens to the loose change. does it go to charity or get passed onto you at a later date?
Alex
Alex
kimoldfield
- 15 May 2008 13:23
- 156 of 331
Alex, the sp should be stated on the Share Purchase Advice which you get with your new certificate. The fraction left over is held to be put towards your next div. Historic prices for LLOY can be obtained at 
The dates you would need for the last DRIP are 5 March to 12 March inclusive.
The dates you would need for the last DRIP are 5 March to 12 March inclusive.
kimoldfield
- 15 May 2008 13:26
- 157 of 331
Link didn't work! I'll try it this way instead.
http://www.investorrelations.lloydstsb.com/ir/hist_share_price_download_page.asp
http://www.investorrelations.lloydstsb.com/ir/hist_share_price_download_page.asp
robertalexander
- 15 May 2008 16:50
- 158 of 331
Kim
I got my shares electronically so it didn't show up, I may have a letter at home with this info on but not there until tomorrow night.
thanks for the link though
Alex
:)
I got my shares electronically so it didn't show up, I may have a letter at home with this info on but not there until tomorrow night.
thanks for the link though
Alex
:)
maggiebt4
- 15 May 2008 18:46
- 159 of 331
I hold my shares in a nominee account and only got money How many shares were we meant to get. Hope this is not a silly question.
Dil
- 15 May 2008 21:06
- 160 of 331
Maggie , you can opt to have the dividend paid in cash or shares but you don't get both.
kimoldfield
- 16 May 2008 01:08
- 161 of 331
Maggie, unless you had already instructed whoever is holding your shares as nominee that you wished to sell the rights to your new shares, I would have thought that you should have a holding of nil paid rights. You were entitled to 11 new shares for every 18 that you held, for which you would pay 2 for each new share if you wanted to keep them.
dealerdear - 16 May 2008 07:45 - 162 of 331
If you hold in certificate form then the letter should have arrived yesterday (15th). I hold some in nominee account online and although my broker assured me they were about to put them into my account, they still have not arrived.
hewittalan6
- 19 May 2008 16:43
- 163 of 331
Interesting (to me) news from the big banks today.
They have been in meetings with FSA, CML, AMI and others regarding dual pricing of lending products, with different products offered at different criteria through different channels.
The view of most in the industry (including the Council of Mortgage Lenders) is that this flies in the face of the principles of Treating Customers Fairly, as laid down by the FSA. Typically, the FSA are well and truly on the fence on this one, totally undecided as to whether it is fair or not!!
The interesting bit is the lenders defence. They say the aim of dual pricing is to protect their employees interests. The translation of this is that they feel they will need to lay off staff unless they can ringfence their own specific products as being available through certain branches only. This is either a worrying or positive devlopment, depending how it plays out. You could take it as being a sign of margin pressures due to lowering volumes, or it may force the lenders to be more competitive in their structures.
The FSA are concerned that people may go straight to lender in order to save 0.1% and end up with lower quality advice and expensive tied insurance product as a result. It strikes me as the one area the FSA could really make a difference to the current conditions and truly protect clients from being ripped off and yet they feel unable to act. Shameful.
They have been in meetings with FSA, CML, AMI and others regarding dual pricing of lending products, with different products offered at different criteria through different channels.
The view of most in the industry (including the Council of Mortgage Lenders) is that this flies in the face of the principles of Treating Customers Fairly, as laid down by the FSA. Typically, the FSA are well and truly on the fence on this one, totally undecided as to whether it is fair or not!!
The interesting bit is the lenders defence. They say the aim of dual pricing is to protect their employees interests. The translation of this is that they feel they will need to lay off staff unless they can ringfence their own specific products as being available through certain branches only. This is either a worrying or positive devlopment, depending how it plays out. You could take it as being a sign of margin pressures due to lowering volumes, or it may force the lenders to be more competitive in their structures.
The FSA are concerned that people may go straight to lender in order to save 0.1% and end up with lower quality advice and expensive tied insurance product as a result. It strikes me as the one area the FSA could really make a difference to the current conditions and truly protect clients from being ripped off and yet they feel unable to act. Shameful.
hewittalan6
- 19 May 2008 20:07
- 164 of 331
Funny thing is, a less reputable source tells me that Barclays are offering their telephone mortgage staff unlimited overtime to cope with demand!!
Lord knows what the hell is happening.
On the one hand lenders are telling me they are snowed under, but they are telling the FSA they need to attract business.
Odd.
Lord knows what the hell is happening.
On the one hand lenders are telling me they are snowed under, but they are telling the FSA they need to attract business.
Odd.
Kayak
- 19 May 2008 20:19
- 165 of 331
I think they're trying to improve their profit margins to be able to afford the penal interest they are paying to the Bank of England.
maggiebt4
- 19 May 2008 20:59
- 166 of 331
Many thanks, all of you for your help Have been dying all weekend so only read today. Will ring my broker and sort it out.
spitfire43 - 19 May 2008 21:19 - 167 of 331
Worth looking at the link below, which is an interview with Diana Choyleva from Lombard Street. Interesting angle on the libor rate and the large clearing banks, I hadn't thought about the reason for high libor, but I agree with her it makes sense for the large clearing banks to take advantage.
See what others think.
www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=734371838&fromSearch=n
See what others think.
www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=734371838&fromSearch=n
hewittalan6
- 20 May 2008 08:13
- 168 of 331
Funny how the press can skew the news to create panic and sell papers.
The Guardian reports shock horror that C&G has pulled its entire mortgage range, and that this is the harbinger of doom and the first horseman of the apocalypse to ride out among the leafy streets of suburbia.
The truth is, this happens almost every week (recently almost every day) from one lender or another. It is always down to a rate change or the lender concerned getting its predictions of future rates wrong. C&G were among the cheapest recently and their withdrawal is no suprise in the industry. Bringing the range back at 0.25% more is no more than aligning itself with other lenders.
The Guardian report it as though it is an unusual and one off event, sparked by crisis and panic. They will not be happy until they have caused the housing and money markets to fall off a precipice with their inaccurate doom mongering.
If you want to blame anyone for UK financial problems, look no further than a self interested media looking to sell their tatty rags.
The Guardian reports shock horror that C&G has pulled its entire mortgage range, and that this is the harbinger of doom and the first horseman of the apocalypse to ride out among the leafy streets of suburbia.
The truth is, this happens almost every week (recently almost every day) from one lender or another. It is always down to a rate change or the lender concerned getting its predictions of future rates wrong. C&G were among the cheapest recently and their withdrawal is no suprise in the industry. Bringing the range back at 0.25% more is no more than aligning itself with other lenders.
The Guardian report it as though it is an unusual and one off event, sparked by crisis and panic. They will not be happy until they have caused the housing and money markets to fall off a precipice with their inaccurate doom mongering.
If you want to blame anyone for UK financial problems, look no further than a self interested media looking to sell their tatty rags.
dealerdear - 20 May 2008 08:18 - 169 of 331
Agree with you Alan. Form somebody who once did a media course, I hate them. Problems don't start with them but they don't half turn the knife for their benefit only. These days only one thing matters to the media, ratings and sales.
hewittalan6
- 20 May 2008 08:27
- 170 of 331
The Barclays situation is another example.
The press report it as though the bank is out of cash and desperately needing to visit its shareholders with a begging bowl. Its on its knees and staring bankruptcy in the face.
The truth (though it won't sell papers) is that they are inundated with applications they wish to service to the point where staff are doing overtime and they have an active recruitment campaign. They simply do not have enough cash to ensure they do not breach the 5% capital adequacy rule to supply more in lending than they have ever been called on for before. This is a problem, of course, but its not a bad one.
Evidence? Look at First Direct who pulled out altogether for 7 weeks, just to catch up on a backlog. That is the alternative for Barclays, not the bankruptcy the media hint at.
The press report it as though the bank is out of cash and desperately needing to visit its shareholders with a begging bowl. Its on its knees and staring bankruptcy in the face.
The truth (though it won't sell papers) is that they are inundated with applications they wish to service to the point where staff are doing overtime and they have an active recruitment campaign. They simply do not have enough cash to ensure they do not breach the 5% capital adequacy rule to supply more in lending than they have ever been called on for before. This is a problem, of course, but its not a bad one.
Evidence? Look at First Direct who pulled out altogether for 7 weeks, just to catch up on a backlog. That is the alternative for Barclays, not the bankruptcy the media hint at.
hewittalan6
- 20 May 2008 08:33
- 171 of 331
Sorry to go on, but then theres Citigroup (AKA Future Mortgages) who are reported today as closing its book. They made the decision to scale down and eventually pull out 3 years ago.
My understanding is that this had little to do with any dire forecasts, just a realisation their model was not good enough and unlikely to compete very well with GE Capital and General Motors who were emerging as the biggest and most aggresive players.
My understanding is that this had little to do with any dire forecasts, just a realisation their model was not good enough and unlikely to compete very well with GE Capital and General Motors who were emerging as the biggest and most aggresive players.
robertalexander
- 22 May 2008 08:23
- 172 of 331
What date is the last date to hold RBSN before you have to stump up the issue price. if they keep falling is it possible that you could pay more than they worth?
ie RBS goes below 2
Alex
ie RBS goes below 2
Alex
dealerdear - 22 May 2008 08:33 - 173 of 331
Exactly! I have loads of the bl**dy things! If things carry on like this, if you believe in the company then it may be better to buy the shares at 150p than take up the rights issue! lol I think greed will get the better of people as the sp slips towards 2.
Money needs to received by 6 June and the new shares start trading 9 June. No info about when RBSN stop trading (5-8 June?)
Money needs to received by 6 June and the new shares start trading 9 June. No info about when RBSN stop trading (5-8 June?)
hlyeo98 - 22 May 2008 08:39 - 174 of 331
I know sometimes we love our shares too much
Stan
- 26 May 2008 15:27
- 175 of 331
Don't know if UK banks are mentioned as I have still to listen to the link myself, but thought that the programme title looked interesting.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/
spitfire43 - 26 May 2008 23:01 - 176 of 331
Could be a bad day for lloy Tuesday, see link below re-miss selling rumours with Scottish Widows. With more possible writedowns and a rights issue from UBS and rumours about hidden CDO losses in Lehman Bros it may be a bumpy ride for all banks.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3998860.ece
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3998860.ece
brianboru
- 27 May 2008 08:11
- 177 of 331
Anthony Bolton, one of the City's leading fund managers, called the top of the commodities market yesterday by arguing that he would switch out of metals and oil and move his funds into financial stocks. Speaking in a television interview, Mr Bolton, who stepped down from running Fidelity's Special Situations Fund in January, said: After five years of strong commodity markets, a contrarian such as myself would start to get more worried. I would switch out of commodities today and move into financial stocks, reports the Times
spitfire43 - 29 May 2008 09:29 - 178 of 331
Worth a read of a paper report copied below, if I can find out the CDS figures for UK banks I will post them here.
"The debt markets in the US and Europe have begun to flash warning signals yet again, raising fears that the global credit crisis could be entering another turbulent phase.
The cost of insuring against default on the bonds of Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and other big banks and brokerages has surged over the last two weeks, threatening to reach the stress levels seen before the Bear Stearns debacle. Spreads on inter-bank Libor and Euribor rates in Europe are back near record levels.
Credit default swaps (CDS) on Lehman debt have risen from around 130 in late April to 247, while Merrill debt has spiked to 196. Most analysts had thought the coast was clear for such broker dealers after the US Federal Reserve invoked an emergency clause in March to let them borrow directly from its lending window.
But there are now concerns that the Fed itself may be exhausting its $800bn (399bn) stock of assets. It has swapped almost $300bn of 10-year Treasuries for questionable mortgage debt, and provided Term Auction Credit of $130bn.
"The steep rise in swap spreads this week is ominous," said John Hussman, head of the Hussman Funds. "The deterioration is in stark contrast to what investors have come to hope since March."
Lehman Brothers took writedowns of just $200m on its $6.5bn portfolio of sub-prime debt in the first quarter even though a quarter of the securities had "junk" ratings, typically worth a fraction of face value.
Willem Sels, a credit analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort, said the banks are beginning to face waves of defaults on credit cards, car loans, and now corporate loans. "We believe we're entering Phase II. The liquidity crisis has eased a little, but the real credit losses are accelerating. The worst is yet to come," he said.
The jump in corporate bankruptcies has not yet been picked up by the usual indicators, which tend to lag the market, lulling investors into a false sense of security. The true losses are already known to specialists in the business, said Mr Sels."
"The debt markets in the US and Europe have begun to flash warning signals yet again, raising fears that the global credit crisis could be entering another turbulent phase.
The cost of insuring against default on the bonds of Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and other big banks and brokerages has surged over the last two weeks, threatening to reach the stress levels seen before the Bear Stearns debacle. Spreads on inter-bank Libor and Euribor rates in Europe are back near record levels.
Credit default swaps (CDS) on Lehman debt have risen from around 130 in late April to 247, while Merrill debt has spiked to 196. Most analysts had thought the coast was clear for such broker dealers after the US Federal Reserve invoked an emergency clause in March to let them borrow directly from its lending window.
But there are now concerns that the Fed itself may be exhausting its $800bn (399bn) stock of assets. It has swapped almost $300bn of 10-year Treasuries for questionable mortgage debt, and provided Term Auction Credit of $130bn.
"The steep rise in swap spreads this week is ominous," said John Hussman, head of the Hussman Funds. "The deterioration is in stark contrast to what investors have come to hope since March."
Lehman Brothers took writedowns of just $200m on its $6.5bn portfolio of sub-prime debt in the first quarter even though a quarter of the securities had "junk" ratings, typically worth a fraction of face value.
Willem Sels, a credit analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort, said the banks are beginning to face waves of defaults on credit cards, car loans, and now corporate loans. "We believe we're entering Phase II. The liquidity crisis has eased a little, but the real credit losses are accelerating. The worst is yet to come," he said.
The jump in corporate bankruptcies has not yet been picked up by the usual indicators, which tend to lag the market, lulling investors into a false sense of security. The true losses are already known to specialists in the business, said Mr Sels."
brianboru
- 29 May 2008 09:44
- 179 of 331
Interesting video on the FT site which suggested the investment banks such as LloydsTSB are keeping libor up and deliberately starving the non investment banks such as B&B of cash... The intention is possibly to pinch their market share and then buy them up on the cheap...
halifax - 29 May 2008 13:08 - 180 of 331
LTSB will be pleased to learn they are an investment bank!
spitfire43 - 29 May 2008 13:56 - 181 of 331
brianboru
is this the interview with Diana Choyleva
when you think about it, it makes sense for the clearing banks to keep libor higher and take advantage of the difficulties caused to al. bb. and hbos.
is this the interview with Diana Choyleva
when you think about it, it makes sense for the clearing banks to keep libor higher and take advantage of the difficulties caused to al. bb. and hbos.
dealerdear - 30 May 2008 08:30 - 182 of 331
Just a thought.
Miners and banks appear to trade in opposite directions. With miners about to break technical levels, it feels as though they have lost their gloss. It may only be temporary of course but with banks at very low levels and RBS and B&B near their rights issue prices, is this the start of the turnaround. Time will tell of course. IMO the initial surge in banks sp's today will disapppear and today at least miners will come back. We shall see!
Miners and banks appear to trade in opposite directions. With miners about to break technical levels, it feels as though they have lost their gloss. It may only be temporary of course but with banks at very low levels and RBS and B&B near their rights issue prices, is this the start of the turnaround. Time will tell of course. IMO the initial surge in banks sp's today will disapppear and today at least miners will come back. We shall see!
Falcothou - 30 May 2008 08:55 - 183 of 331
Buffett did say he would not look into banks until Q3. Are we there yet? I am going to start buying small amounts in a diversified bunch anyway, be most brave when people are most fearful so the Sage says
brianboru
- 30 May 2008 10:22
- 184 of 331
Sorry, clearing banks and non clearing banks...
Spitfire, yes it is Diana Choyleva under view from the markets...
http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html
Spitfire, yes it is Diana Choyleva under view from the markets...
http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html
hlyeo98 - 06 Jun 2008 19:24 - 185 of 331
Now the banks have to sell assets...looks like the banks are far from bottoming out...
Royal Bank of Scotland and other European banks are having to sell assets to repair their battered balance sheets and will have to settle for low prices.
Buyers are scarce because funding is tight for private equity firms and because the better capitalised banks that might be interested can afford to hold off on acquisitions until the price is right.
"RBS Insurance is a classic example where a bank has in mind what it thinks is a fair price but the reality is people's ability to pay is pretty constrained," said Simon Maughan, analyst at MF Global.
"If we do see asset sales it could take a few more months for the sellers to capitulate (and lower price expectations)," he said.
RBS (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research) may struggle to achieve the 6 to 7 billion pounds it wants for its insurance arm and it is not alone in looking to sell assets in tough markets, bankers say.
Still, cut-price deals may be better than dilutive share issuance.
Multi-billion-euro rights issues are repairing the most stretched balance sheets, but with more writedowns on toxic holdings and low growth ahead, asset sales could be the key.
Royal Bank of Scotland and other European banks are having to sell assets to repair their battered balance sheets and will have to settle for low prices.
Buyers are scarce because funding is tight for private equity firms and because the better capitalised banks that might be interested can afford to hold off on acquisitions until the price is right.
"RBS Insurance is a classic example where a bank has in mind what it thinks is a fair price but the reality is people's ability to pay is pretty constrained," said Simon Maughan, analyst at MF Global.
"If we do see asset sales it could take a few more months for the sellers to capitulate (and lower price expectations)," he said.
RBS (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research) may struggle to achieve the 6 to 7 billion pounds it wants for its insurance arm and it is not alone in looking to sell assets in tough markets, bankers say.
Still, cut-price deals may be better than dilutive share issuance.
Multi-billion-euro rights issues are repairing the most stretched balance sheets, but with more writedowns on toxic holdings and low growth ahead, asset sales could be the key.
halifax - 06 Jun 2008 20:21 - 186 of 331
Dont agree any banks rushing to sell assets generating good earnings must be in serious difficulties at this time when asset sales are unlikely to realise their true worth.The banks able to weather the credit crunch storm without selling assets on the cheap are the banks worth buying into, the market share price of a bank or any company does not necessarily reflect the true value of that company and those who hold their nerve will succeed whereas those that dont will fail.
scotinvestor - 07 Jun 2008 02:53 - 187 of 331
rbs is solid to come out ok eventually.....and i think worst is over now.
if rbs goes bust, most of uk will go bankrupt!!! here's hoping then, lol.....at least gordon brown has increased his pension by millions in recent years so he will be ok.....oh and tony the war criminal who aint been tried yet in the hague who is earning more than 10 million a year for doing he-haw....plus his stupid book too
brown and blair.....more like laural and hardy.....thats another fine mess...
if rbs goes bust, most of uk will go bankrupt!!! here's hoping then, lol.....at least gordon brown has increased his pension by millions in recent years so he will be ok.....oh and tony the war criminal who aint been tried yet in the hague who is earning more than 10 million a year for doing he-haw....plus his stupid book too
brown and blair.....more like laural and hardy.....thats another fine mess...
scotinvestor - 07 Jun 2008 02:56 - 188 of 331
i have been informed by an rbs manager that when nrk were bailed out by uk peoples money to tune of several thousands pounds for each person in country, if rbs are to be bailed out, then you can easily put an extra zero on the figure at least.....ouch!! that means every person in uk has to pay 40,000 each!!!
and most people r struggling.......even the aussie bankers r leaving london to go back to oz as they r fed up looking at poor people in uk
and most people r struggling.......even the aussie bankers r leaving london to go back to oz as they r fed up looking at poor people in uk
hlyeo98 - 07 Jun 2008 16:25 - 189 of 331
In the Financial Times today, many brokers including Hargreaves Lansdowne said Bradford & Bingley is a SELL.
hlyeo98 - 08 Jun 2008 13:30 - 190 of 331
It's been a day to forget for shareholders of struggling building-society-turned-bank Bradford & Bingley (LSE: BB.) . B&B's shares were suspended from trading at 7.52am, only to be reinstated at 8.10am after the lender issued a profit warning. In a stock-market announcement, the UK's eighth-largest bank revealed five shockers:
1. US private-equity firm Texas Pacific Group is buying a 23% stake in the bank at 55p a share, for a total of 179 million.
2. B&B's recently announced rights issue has been scrapped and replaced by a restructured issue of 258 million. The original rights issue, announced last month, offered new shares to existing shareholders at 82p. As the market price is now below this level, shareholders can buy B&B shares more cheaply in the stock market. Hence, the previous rights issue was cancelled. The new deal offers shareholders 19 new shares at 55p for every 25 shares held.
3. B&B made an 8 million pre-tax loss for January to April, versus a 108 million profit in the same period of 2007. B&B had expected to make 150 million in the first four months of 2008.
4. The lender warned of tough times to come for the UK housing market, as write-offs, bad debts and arrears rise in buy-to-let lending.
5. B&B's chief executive, Steven Crawshaw, is suffering from a heart condition and has stepped down. We wish him a speedy return to health.
There may be trouble ahead...
Naturally, B&B's share price plunged, with other banks' shares following suit. Having closed at 88.25p on Friday, Bradford & Bingley's share price dived as low as 60p (down 32%), before recovering to 66p (down 22%) as I write.
Bradford & Bingley is particularly exposed to specialist mortgage lending, including buy to let (where it is the market leader), self-certification (alias liar loans') and negative-equity and 100%+ loans.
The big worry for Bradford & Bingley (and other mortgage lenders and property investors) is that its buy-to-let business model has never been stress-tested in a housing downturn. B&B is the UK's largest lender in the buy-to-let sector, with a share of a fifth (20%) of this 120 billion market.
1. US private-equity firm Texas Pacific Group is buying a 23% stake in the bank at 55p a share, for a total of 179 million.
2. B&B's recently announced rights issue has been scrapped and replaced by a restructured issue of 258 million. The original rights issue, announced last month, offered new shares to existing shareholders at 82p. As the market price is now below this level, shareholders can buy B&B shares more cheaply in the stock market. Hence, the previous rights issue was cancelled. The new deal offers shareholders 19 new shares at 55p for every 25 shares held.
3. B&B made an 8 million pre-tax loss for January to April, versus a 108 million profit in the same period of 2007. B&B had expected to make 150 million in the first four months of 2008.
4. The lender warned of tough times to come for the UK housing market, as write-offs, bad debts and arrears rise in buy-to-let lending.
5. B&B's chief executive, Steven Crawshaw, is suffering from a heart condition and has stepped down. We wish him a speedy return to health.
There may be trouble ahead...
Naturally, B&B's share price plunged, with other banks' shares following suit. Having closed at 88.25p on Friday, Bradford & Bingley's share price dived as low as 60p (down 32%), before recovering to 66p (down 22%) as I write.
Bradford & Bingley is particularly exposed to specialist mortgage lending, including buy to let (where it is the market leader), self-certification (alias liar loans') and negative-equity and 100%+ loans.
The big worry for Bradford & Bingley (and other mortgage lenders and property investors) is that its buy-to-let business model has never been stress-tested in a housing downturn. B&B is the UK's largest lender in the buy-to-let sector, with a share of a fifth (20%) of this 120 billion market.
justyi - 08 Jun 2008 13:39 - 191 of 331
No one knows how buy to let will play out if house prices fall for a sustained period. It may even be the case that the buy-to-let bubble has burst and this model has broken down. When times get tough, homeowners will be a better bet than property investors, so the future looks grim for B&B.
You'd have to be a very brave investor to buy shares in Bradford & Bingley at present. The long-awaited housing-market downturn has only just begun, and the UK economy has yet to go into recession. Nevertheless, B&B is already showing signs of financial strain, even though the worst is still yet to come.
Therefore, things look pretty nasty for B&B's owners. TPG Capital is paying 55p a share for almost a quarter of Bradford & Bingley, with the replacement rights issue at the same price. Therefore, there is no reason why existing shareholders should value their shares at much above this level. What's more, the dividend will definitely be cut later in the year.
In short, if I were a shareholder in B&B, I would head for the exit by selling my shares.
You'd have to be a very brave investor to buy shares in Bradford & Bingley at present. The long-awaited housing-market downturn has only just begun, and the UK economy has yet to go into recession. Nevertheless, B&B is already showing signs of financial strain, even though the worst is still yet to come.
Therefore, things look pretty nasty for B&B's owners. TPG Capital is paying 55p a share for almost a quarter of Bradford & Bingley, with the replacement rights issue at the same price. Therefore, there is no reason why existing shareholders should value their shares at much above this level. What's more, the dividend will definitely be cut later in the year.
In short, if I were a shareholder in B&B, I would head for the exit by selling my shares.
hlyeo98 - 11 Jun 2008 12:14 - 192 of 331
Virgin Money rules out B&B bid - By Philip Aldrick
Last Updated: 12:55am BST 11/06/2008
Jayne-Anne Gadhia, chief executive of Virgin Money, has ruled out a bid for Bradford & Bingley, insisting that buying such a "damaged brand... would be insane", despite pitching a 1.25bn offer for Northern Rock last year.
Ms Gadhia, who led the bid on behalf of Sir Richard Branson's outfit, claimed B&B did not fit Virgin Money's strategy to take customer deposits and offer mortgages and investments.
She said: "It would be insane to pay for access to the banking world by taking on risk that was unmanageable.
Northern Rock would have given us huge scale and profile immediately. The big difference between Northern Rock and B&B is the quality in the balance sheet."
B&B's mortgage arrears are above the industry average at 1.98pc and its profit margins are deteriorating. Northern Rock was appealing because it made "sound and sensible" investments, Ms Gadhia said. Its arrears level was 0.95pc in April, below the industry average of 1.1pc.
"Looking at the liability side of B&B's balance sheet, it wasn't as good as Northern Rock's because the buy-to-let and self-certification loans they made are perceived as high risk," she said.
Last Updated: 12:55am BST 11/06/2008
Jayne-Anne Gadhia, chief executive of Virgin Money, has ruled out a bid for Bradford & Bingley, insisting that buying such a "damaged brand... would be insane", despite pitching a 1.25bn offer for Northern Rock last year.
Ms Gadhia, who led the bid on behalf of Sir Richard Branson's outfit, claimed B&B did not fit Virgin Money's strategy to take customer deposits and offer mortgages and investments.
She said: "It would be insane to pay for access to the banking world by taking on risk that was unmanageable.
Northern Rock would have given us huge scale and profile immediately. The big difference between Northern Rock and B&B is the quality in the balance sheet."
B&B's mortgage arrears are above the industry average at 1.98pc and its profit margins are deteriorating. Northern Rock was appealing because it made "sound and sensible" investments, Ms Gadhia said. Its arrears level was 0.95pc in April, below the industry average of 1.1pc.
"Looking at the liability side of B&B's balance sheet, it wasn't as good as Northern Rock's because the buy-to-let and self-certification loans they made are perceived as high risk," she said.
dealerdear - 11 Jun 2008 14:54 - 193 of 331
market collapsing. RBS 216p and HBOS at rights price!
robertalexander
- 11 Jun 2008 15:15
- 194 of 331
would suggest this is a good time to hold cash and be in a position to buy cheap(er) banking shares like RBS. They have already had their rights issue (RI) and raised cash so hopefully despite their weak trading statement they will recover without any further dilution in the short term.
If HBOS go below rights issue SP will they have to re think RI price?
I mean those that hold wont take up their holding as they can top for less if that is there wish.
I hold a very small number of HBOS and LLOY and am not about to increase my holdings in them any time soon. RBS is on my watch list
If HBOS go below rights issue SP will they have to re think RI price?
I mean those that hold wont take up their holding as they can top for less if that is there wish.
I hold a very small number of HBOS and LLOY and am not about to increase my holdings in them any time soon. RBS is on my watch list
dealerdear - 11 Jun 2008 15:19 - 195 of 331
I think HBOS will have to reduce it and heads will roll.
If RBS gets less than rights price heads should also roll.
If RBS gets less than rights price heads should also roll.
spitfire43 - 11 Jun 2008 16:13 - 196 of 331
it is always difficult to decide when to invest, I had 355 as my next purchase for lloy, but with fear gripping the market, why buy now. if RBS falls below the ri price I would be tempted to take a nibble, they are in a much improved position having got the ri away first.
halifax - 11 Jun 2008 16:55 - 197 of 331
If there were ever a time for banks to issue quarterly results as in the US now is that time as the market needs hard numbers rather than vague noises of reassurance.
scotinvestor - 11 Jun 2008 18:03 - 198 of 331
rbs gave a trading update today.....they have tried to be as honest as they can in last few months.
rbs looks good to buy now i think......dont think there much bad news left and i think they have over calculated their losses to be on safe side.
aye, hbos.....as i said on hbos thread, hornby should be sacked.....as he wont resign....he acts like a politician.....has he ever been to scotland yet? sounds like the damn prime minister.
never attended agm! speaks volumes that does.....he aint a banker with no experience.....he's just a wee boy in big financial world....and his silence is deafening. he's also raided BoS pension funds and union bank pensions funds.....totally SHAMEFUL.....AND WAY BANK PENSIONERS ARE TREATED IS DREADFUL TOO.
rbs looks good to buy now i think......dont think there much bad news left and i think they have over calculated their losses to be on safe side.
aye, hbos.....as i said on hbos thread, hornby should be sacked.....as he wont resign....he acts like a politician.....has he ever been to scotland yet? sounds like the damn prime minister.
never attended agm! speaks volumes that does.....he aint a banker with no experience.....he's just a wee boy in big financial world....and his silence is deafening. he's also raided BoS pension funds and union bank pensions funds.....totally SHAMEFUL.....AND WAY BANK PENSIONERS ARE TREATED IS DREADFUL TOO.
scotinvestor - 11 Jun 2008 18:05 - 199 of 331
THE MARKET BOYS dont know their ar?e from their elbow anyway.....why should they when they get bonuses of half a miliuon........after a couple of years pis?ing about, they can sod off to australia, europe or wherever the prats come from
scotinvestor - 11 Jun 2008 18:14 - 200 of 331
banks have little money.....houses to go down at least another 20% over next 18 months......houses gone down 13k already on averahge so i reckon peole will lose About another 40k....haha, more than 50k in just 2 years lost on each house.
but companies r struggling with funding....and banks wont fund unless its a ceretainty.....mortgages r very hard to get unless u r wealthy, so why need them.
mervyn king said house prices even after reduction will be STAGNANT EVEN IN 4 YEARS TIME. lol
seems that capitalism is not just stuggling but collapsing before our eyes.
is it not about time that uk started a communist government where the state look after us? food bills r enormous, gas / oil rocketing.....cars will be dead as petrol is extortionate.....everyone i know is struggling in life
but companies r struggling with funding....and banks wont fund unless its a ceretainty.....mortgages r very hard to get unless u r wealthy, so why need them.
mervyn king said house prices even after reduction will be STAGNANT EVEN IN 4 YEARS TIME. lol
seems that capitalism is not just stuggling but collapsing before our eyes.
is it not about time that uk started a communist government where the state look after us? food bills r enormous, gas / oil rocketing.....cars will be dead as petrol is extortionate.....everyone i know is struggling in life
dealerdear - 11 Jun 2008 20:36 - 201 of 331
Scot.
I agree with you!!!
Marxism is not dead. The way my shares have performed today, they are!
seriously, tell me, in your humble opinion, where is RBS sp going?
I'm tempted to sell my paid rights. Some analysts are making +ve noises, others are still slagging the company off after the trading statement.
I agree with you!!!
Marxism is not dead. The way my shares have performed today, they are!
seriously, tell me, in your humble opinion, where is RBS sp going?
I'm tempted to sell my paid rights. Some analysts are making +ve noises, others are still slagging the company off after the trading statement.
scotinvestor - 12 Jun 2008 01:17 - 202 of 331
i'm pretty sure medium and long term, rbs will go up.....i reckon to 4.50 to 5 in 2 or so years......it will take time to unravel amro integration savings.....and they will have made handsome profits from angel train, bank of china etc......remember institutions stopped fred goodwin from putting too much into china!!
how many people in media say that.....china has tripled rbs value already.
short term who knows.....and in current dreadful crappy uk, even more hazardous to guess.....all u need is for gordon to go on tv and say stability and market collapses, lol. i'm embarassed that brown, darling and browne are scottish.....mind you, not many scots left in scotland these days....suppose its same with english in england.
i thought rbs right issue had gone through.....for what its worth, i'd have taken them up.....if it does hit 2 or go less, it wont last too long
in less than 6 months, i'm sure most major will have turned the corner at least.
as i say, buy and check them in 2010.....u will get good divi too.....and i reckon double digit increase in sp.....better than putting cash in bank!! lol
how many people in media say that.....china has tripled rbs value already.
short term who knows.....and in current dreadful crappy uk, even more hazardous to guess.....all u need is for gordon to go on tv and say stability and market collapses, lol. i'm embarassed that brown, darling and browne are scottish.....mind you, not many scots left in scotland these days....suppose its same with english in england.
i thought rbs right issue had gone through.....for what its worth, i'd have taken them up.....if it does hit 2 or go less, it wont last too long
in less than 6 months, i'm sure most major will have turned the corner at least.
as i say, buy and check them in 2010.....u will get good divi too.....and i reckon double digit increase in sp.....better than putting cash in bank!! lol
scotinvestor - 12 Jun 2008 01:24 - 203 of 331
these analysts sit in some fancy office in usa with some dodgy american investment bank!!
or some other stupid office in london!
if u want to know about banking, come to scotland....jes, we have been showing the world for centuries now.
actually british linen bank confounded marx theory about banking crisis as they were ist bank to have a branch system.....they were scottish even though "british" in name.
i have spoken to 2 fairly senior people in investments in rbs and they assure me next year onwards that rbs will be shown to be a good investment.
or some other stupid office in london!
if u want to know about banking, come to scotland....jes, we have been showing the world for centuries now.
actually british linen bank confounded marx theory about banking crisis as they were ist bank to have a branch system.....they were scottish even though "british" in name.
i have spoken to 2 fairly senior people in investments in rbs and they assure me next year onwards that rbs will be shown to be a good investment.
dealerdear - 12 Jun 2008 07:45 - 204 of 331
Cheers scot
halifax - 12 Jun 2008 08:46 - 205 of 331
Not many scots left in Scotland because they have all gone to England to run the country (into the ground), arent they making a good job of it!!
scotinvestor - 12 Jun 2008 13:15 - 206 of 331
you are making yourself look like a total idiot halifax today with your bitter messages.
most scots have gone to oz, canada, nz etc actually if you care to look at facts!
yes, FACTS, SOMETHING THAT YOU DONT SEEM TO DO.
now go and sort that crap building society out that u have.
why u on share website, i'd imagine yorkshire folk would cry if they spent even a penny!!!! tighter than a crabs arse and thats water tight.
most scots have gone to oz, canada, nz etc actually if you care to look at facts!
yes, FACTS, SOMETHING THAT YOU DONT SEEM TO DO.
now go and sort that crap building society out that u have.
why u on share website, i'd imagine yorkshire folk would cry if they spent even a penny!!!! tighter than a crabs arse and thats water tight.
halifax - 12 Jun 2008 13:24 - 207 of 331
Well, well wee jock having insulted us yorkshiremen you had better hurry and find that big stick before we find you!
hewittalan6
- 14 Jun 2008 07:13
- 208 of 331
Couple of interesting items of note from the last week or so............
Fitch ratings now believe that banks have written down around 80% of their total losses from sub prime lending. This is an average, so many banks will now be 100% written down.......no more to come, but some have a fair bit to go.
Abbey report that the tranches of money they have for direct fixed lending are lasting much longer than the tranches they have for broker fixed lending, so people are still using brokers to source the best deals.
Barclays are reporting much the same, but an unofficial and small voice within tells me they are making massive amounts of money available over the next few months as they expect to have to reduce rates and loosen criteria to compete then and wish to make hay while the sun shines at the moment!!!
New mortgages are down 40%(ish) but remortgages are much more resilient in May.
Finally, Paragon and Bank of Ireland are reporting good signs in the buy to let arena as demand for rented accomodation forces rents up and property prices reduce a little.
A mixed bag, but it is an improvement on all the news being doom and gloom.
Fitch ratings now believe that banks have written down around 80% of their total losses from sub prime lending. This is an average, so many banks will now be 100% written down.......no more to come, but some have a fair bit to go.
Abbey report that the tranches of money they have for direct fixed lending are lasting much longer than the tranches they have for broker fixed lending, so people are still using brokers to source the best deals.
Barclays are reporting much the same, but an unofficial and small voice within tells me they are making massive amounts of money available over the next few months as they expect to have to reduce rates and loosen criteria to compete then and wish to make hay while the sun shines at the moment!!!
New mortgages are down 40%(ish) but remortgages are much more resilient in May.
Finally, Paragon and Bank of Ireland are reporting good signs in the buy to let arena as demand for rented accomodation forces rents up and property prices reduce a little.
A mixed bag, but it is an improvement on all the news being doom and gloom.
spitfire43 - 15 Jun 2008 17:10 - 209 of 331
Interesting article below from todays Telegraph, this is what I wanted to see with Lloyds.
See below.........
Lloyds TSB is considering launching a takeover bid for one of Germany's largest retail banks, underlining the British lender's relative immunity to the writedowns that have scarred the balance sheets of its international rivals.
Lloyds TSB is in the early stages of considering a move for Deutsche Postbank, valued by the German stock market at about 10bn (8bn), which has been earmarked for disposal.
If it decides to proceed with an offer, on which it would be advised by Lehman Brothers, Lloyds TSB would be embarking upon a significant change in strategy.
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The bank's focus has been on the domestic British retail and commercial banking sectors, but its limited exposure to the sub-prime mortgage and credit crises has, in the view of Lloyds TSB executives, given it a mandate to seek out international acquisitions.
More on banking
Deutsche Postbank, which is majority-owned by the logistics group Deutsche Post, has a wholly or partially owned network of nearly 11,000 branches. Other groups, including Germany's Allianz and Commerzbank, and Spain's Grupo Santander, which owns Abbey in Britain, are also examining offers.
Lloyds TSB declined to comment on its interest in Deutsche Postbank, but people close to the British group said Sir Victor Blank, its chairman, and Eric Daniels, its chief executive, are keen to look at a series of merger and takeover opportunities in continental Europe.
Bidders are also circling Citigroup's German retail banking operations, valued at about 5bn. Barclays is understood to have come close to lodging an offer for the division, but decided against this before initial bids were submitted, said sources close to the bank.
See below.........
Lloyds TSB is considering launching a takeover bid for one of Germany's largest retail banks, underlining the British lender's relative immunity to the writedowns that have scarred the balance sheets of its international rivals.
Lloyds TSB is in the early stages of considering a move for Deutsche Postbank, valued by the German stock market at about 10bn (8bn), which has been earmarked for disposal.
If it decides to proceed with an offer, on which it would be advised by Lehman Brothers, Lloyds TSB would be embarking upon a significant change in strategy.
advertisement
The bank's focus has been on the domestic British retail and commercial banking sectors, but its limited exposure to the sub-prime mortgage and credit crises has, in the view of Lloyds TSB executives, given it a mandate to seek out international acquisitions.
More on banking
Deutsche Postbank, which is majority-owned by the logistics group Deutsche Post, has a wholly or partially owned network of nearly 11,000 branches. Other groups, including Germany's Allianz and Commerzbank, and Spain's Grupo Santander, which owns Abbey in Britain, are also examining offers.
Lloyds TSB declined to comment on its interest in Deutsche Postbank, but people close to the British group said Sir Victor Blank, its chairman, and Eric Daniels, its chief executive, are keen to look at a series of merger and takeover opportunities in continental Europe.
Bidders are also circling Citigroup's German retail banking operations, valued at about 5bn. Barclays is understood to have come close to lodging an offer for the division, but decided against this before initial bids were submitted, said sources close to the bank.
hlyeo98 - 18 Jun 2008 08:51 - 210 of 331
RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 7:40am BST 18/06/2008
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.
"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.
RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.
"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.
US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit.
The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.
"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 7:40am BST 18/06/2008
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.
"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.
RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.
"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.
US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit.
The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.
"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.
halifax - 18 Jun 2008 09:02 - 211 of 331
Well Bob's a real bundle of fun, pity he couldnt predict the disaster RBS was getting itself into by buying ABN/AMRO!
hlyeo98 - 18 Jun 2008 18:20 - 212 of 331
The banks are likely going to face a sharp drop from here...
Morgan Stanley profits drop more than 50pc
Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest US securities firm, said profit dropped by more than 50pc on declines in trading, asset management and investment banking.
The bank's earnings from continuing operations fell to $1.03bn in the second
quarter from $2.36bn, the Wall Street firm said.
Earnings from continuing operations fell to $1.03bn in the second quarter from $2.36bn, the Wall Street firm said. The news from Morgan Stanley came as John Paulson, founder of hedge fund Paulson & Co and one of the world's richest financiers, warned that global writedowns and losses from the credit crisis may reach $1.3 trillion.
"We're only about a third of the way through the writedowns," 52-year old Paulson told the GAIM International hedge fund conference in Monaco today. "There are a lot of problems out there and it will continue to be felt through the year. We don't see any signs of stabilizing."
Morgan Stanley, led by chief executive John Mack, reported its first loss as a public company in December after $9.4bn of writedowns on mortgage-related investments. Mr Mack last month announced plans last month to reduce its headcount by as much as 5pc on top of the 3,000 jobs eliminated since October.
"We're expecting continued weakness across all their business units," William Fitzpatrick, an equity analyst at Optique Capital Management Inc. in Racine, Wisconsin, which manages $1.6bn. "It's going to take some time for these markets to really improve."
Morgan Stanley profits drop more than 50pc
Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest US securities firm, said profit dropped by more than 50pc on declines in trading, asset management and investment banking.
The bank's earnings from continuing operations fell to $1.03bn in the second
quarter from $2.36bn, the Wall Street firm said.
Earnings from continuing operations fell to $1.03bn in the second quarter from $2.36bn, the Wall Street firm said. The news from Morgan Stanley came as John Paulson, founder of hedge fund Paulson & Co and one of the world's richest financiers, warned that global writedowns and losses from the credit crisis may reach $1.3 trillion.
"We're only about a third of the way through the writedowns," 52-year old Paulson told the GAIM International hedge fund conference in Monaco today. "There are a lot of problems out there and it will continue to be felt through the year. We don't see any signs of stabilizing."
Morgan Stanley, led by chief executive John Mack, reported its first loss as a public company in December after $9.4bn of writedowns on mortgage-related investments. Mr Mack last month announced plans last month to reduce its headcount by as much as 5pc on top of the 3,000 jobs eliminated since October.
"We're expecting continued weakness across all their business units," William Fitzpatrick, an equity analyst at Optique Capital Management Inc. in Racine, Wisconsin, which manages $1.6bn. "It's going to take some time for these markets to really improve."
spitfire43 - 19 Jun 2008 13:59 - 213 of 331
I have copied an extract from an article in the USA below by David Dreman who runs a very successful fund called Kemper Dreman High Return Fund. He made alot of money in the bank sector in the early 1990s by buying in near the bottom. It has to be remembered that he if focused in the USA banks which are ahead of the UK sector cycle, and we are yet to feel the full effects of a housing slow down.
I have read one of his books, and by his own admission he was a few month's early buying bank share in 91/92 but it still paid off very well.
see below............
David Dreman, Chairman of Dreman Value Management, recommended three banks in his recent Forbes column.
"The good news is that the worst of the liquidity crisis seems to be over," he wrote. "After a slow start, the Federal Reserve Board under Ben S. Bernanke has done an outstanding job containing the panic in the financial system and dispelling the fear of a total meltdown."
Dreman, an expert on the psychology of investing, is a self-styled contrarian. He believes that by controlling your emotions and buying these banks while others are selling, opportunity abounds. These shares of banks are in distress and oversold.
To be sure, long-term investors who understand the intrinsic value in this sector will buy and profit handsomely.
I have read one of his books, and by his own admission he was a few month's early buying bank share in 91/92 but it still paid off very well.
see below............
David Dreman, Chairman of Dreman Value Management, recommended three banks in his recent Forbes column.
"The good news is that the worst of the liquidity crisis seems to be over," he wrote. "After a slow start, the Federal Reserve Board under Ben S. Bernanke has done an outstanding job containing the panic in the financial system and dispelling the fear of a total meltdown."
Dreman, an expert on the psychology of investing, is a self-styled contrarian. He believes that by controlling your emotions and buying these banks while others are selling, opportunity abounds. These shares of banks are in distress and oversold.
To be sure, long-term investors who understand the intrinsic value in this sector will buy and profit handsomely.
skinny
- 19 Jun 2008 19:14
- 214 of 331
HBOS outlook revised to negative; 'AA-/A-1+' ratings affirmed - S&P
MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it
lowered its outlook on U.K. financial services group HBOS Plc. to negative from
stable as it affirmed its 'AA-/A-1+' long- and short-term counterparty credit
ratings.
HBOS derives 85 percent of its core earnings from the U.K., where the
slowing economy is likely to pressure its revenues and impairment losses for the
foreseeable future, S&P said.
The outlook cut follows the completion of S&P's review of the ratings on
U.K. banks and building societies.
The affirmation of the ratings reflects HBOS' strong domestic franchise and
our expectation that it will maintain solid earnings and capital ratios through
the economic downturn.
TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com
MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it
lowered its outlook on U.K. financial services group HBOS Plc. to negative from
stable as it affirmed its 'AA-/A-1+' long- and short-term counterparty credit
ratings.
HBOS derives 85 percent of its core earnings from the U.K., where the
slowing economy is likely to pressure its revenues and impairment losses for the
foreseeable future, S&P said.
The outlook cut follows the completion of S&P's review of the ratings on
U.K. banks and building societies.
The affirmation of the ratings reflects HBOS' strong domestic franchise and
our expectation that it will maintain solid earnings and capital ratios through
the economic downturn.
TFN.newsdesk@thomson.com
pericles
- 19 Jun 2008 20:58
- 215 of 331
Re HBOS from ft.com today, very surprised to see the extent of BTL and self certified loans 26% of total mortgages, I fear for scotinvewstors blood pressure should he read this!! :
Trading continues to be satisfactory and remains in line with the Groups expectations.
The quality of our Treasury portfolio remains strong, comprising predominantly AAA rated securities. Since the Interim Management Statement on 29 April 2008, covering the period to 31 March 2008, the negative fair value adjustments in respect of securities held in the Treasury Trading Book taken through the Income Statement have increased by 58m to 1,028m. The post-tax negative fair value adjustments in relation to the Treasury Banking Book taken through equity have reduced by 49m to 1,825m.
The bad:
The UK housing market remains subdued, with transactions likely to be 45% lower in 2008 than in the previous year
The decline in house prices i now forecast to be up to 9% in 2008, which will have an adverse impact on secured impairment charges
Specialist includes BTL where arrears cases, excluding repossessions, were 1.23% of total BTL mortgages at the end of the May 2008 (0.94% Dec 2007) and 1.59% of value of debt on BTL mortgages (1.28% Dec 2007). Self Certified arrears cases, excluding repossessions, were 3.11% of total Self Certified mortgages at the end of May 2008 (2.51% Dec 2007) and 3.95% of value of debt on Self Certified mortgages (3.18% Dec 2007)
And the ugly:
We expect the UK economy to slow further in 2008, with a modest rise in unemployment and low interest rates, accepting that inflationary pressures will restrict the MPCs ability to reduce base rates below current levels.
HBOS becomes the first UK bank to talk unemployment, note analysts at Pali - though the bank is still (just) plumping for a single-digit decline in house prices this year. Theres also a hint at rising corporate impairment charges as a result of corporate difficulty limited to specific (but non-specified) sectors.The Treasury writedowns (with additional detail disclosed) look reassuring.
But the impairment figures may cause some alarm. Bradford & Bingley may get flak for their niche lending, but HBOS, the UKs leading mortgage lender, has about 26 per cent of its mortgage book split between self cert and buy-to-let, in which arrears have risen to 3.09 per cent at the end of May.
Cazenove crunches the numbers. Buy-to-let arrears have grown by 41 per cent, by value in the first five months of the year. Self cert arrears are up 22 per cent, while mainstream arrears are up only 7 per cent.
HBOS says its expecting a resilient performance this year. The share price is proving anything but - down 6.6 per cent on Thursday to 298p.
pericles. access to ft.com is free btw
Trading continues to be satisfactory and remains in line with the Groups expectations.
The quality of our Treasury portfolio remains strong, comprising predominantly AAA rated securities. Since the Interim Management Statement on 29 April 2008, covering the period to 31 March 2008, the negative fair value adjustments in respect of securities held in the Treasury Trading Book taken through the Income Statement have increased by 58m to 1,028m. The post-tax negative fair value adjustments in relation to the Treasury Banking Book taken through equity have reduced by 49m to 1,825m.
The bad:
The UK housing market remains subdued, with transactions likely to be 45% lower in 2008 than in the previous year
The decline in house prices i now forecast to be up to 9% in 2008, which will have an adverse impact on secured impairment charges
Specialist includes BTL where arrears cases, excluding repossessions, were 1.23% of total BTL mortgages at the end of the May 2008 (0.94% Dec 2007) and 1.59% of value of debt on BTL mortgages (1.28% Dec 2007). Self Certified arrears cases, excluding repossessions, were 3.11% of total Self Certified mortgages at the end of May 2008 (2.51% Dec 2007) and 3.95% of value of debt on Self Certified mortgages (3.18% Dec 2007)
And the ugly:
We expect the UK economy to slow further in 2008, with a modest rise in unemployment and low interest rates, accepting that inflationary pressures will restrict the MPCs ability to reduce base rates below current levels.
HBOS becomes the first UK bank to talk unemployment, note analysts at Pali - though the bank is still (just) plumping for a single-digit decline in house prices this year. Theres also a hint at rising corporate impairment charges as a result of corporate difficulty limited to specific (but non-specified) sectors.The Treasury writedowns (with additional detail disclosed) look reassuring.
But the impairment figures may cause some alarm. Bradford & Bingley may get flak for their niche lending, but HBOS, the UKs leading mortgage lender, has about 26 per cent of its mortgage book split between self cert and buy-to-let, in which arrears have risen to 3.09 per cent at the end of May.
Cazenove crunches the numbers. Buy-to-let arrears have grown by 41 per cent, by value in the first five months of the year. Self cert arrears are up 22 per cent, while mainstream arrears are up only 7 per cent.
HBOS says its expecting a resilient performance this year. The share price is proving anything but - down 6.6 per cent on Thursday to 298p.
pericles. access to ft.com is free btw
scotinvestor - 20 Jun 2008 01:29 - 216 of 331
hi peri
yes, i read it today.....hornby sounds like a politician rather than a banker.
the telegraph did a great page on him last week where even in 6 month period, hornby changes his views totally on actual figures.....maybe he will be next chancellor if he keeps this up.
hornby is in the wrong profession.
i was at local cricket club last week and hornby name seems to be getting talked about a lot up here.....and it aint good!!
finally, i went to hbos this week in local branch......the branch was empty when i was in for the few minutes i was there.....however, i counted amount of staff and all of them doing nothing.....10 of them......yes, ten people doing nothing!!!!
most are just wee girls at counter who obviously know nothing about banking either.......the banks need to streamline in times like this and get rid of 2 or 3 at least......also, several staff were talking/giggling away to each other......they are there to work and do banking....ITS NOT A SOCIAL CLUB. i also think they need to bring back the old days and pay staff what they could live on.....and i propose for anyone up to age of 30 anyway a salary of about 10,000 a year......12 maximum.
hbos need to get back to old fashioned banking.....and not the sales shop that halifax has turned it into
yes, i read it today.....hornby sounds like a politician rather than a banker.
the telegraph did a great page on him last week where even in 6 month period, hornby changes his views totally on actual figures.....maybe he will be next chancellor if he keeps this up.
hornby is in the wrong profession.
i was at local cricket club last week and hornby name seems to be getting talked about a lot up here.....and it aint good!!
finally, i went to hbos this week in local branch......the branch was empty when i was in for the few minutes i was there.....however, i counted amount of staff and all of them doing nothing.....10 of them......yes, ten people doing nothing!!!!
most are just wee girls at counter who obviously know nothing about banking either.......the banks need to streamline in times like this and get rid of 2 or 3 at least......also, several staff were talking/giggling away to each other......they are there to work and do banking....ITS NOT A SOCIAL CLUB. i also think they need to bring back the old days and pay staff what they could live on.....and i propose for anyone up to age of 30 anyway a salary of about 10,000 a year......12 maximum.
hbos need to get back to old fashioned banking.....and not the sales shop that halifax has turned it into
hewittalan6
- 23 Jun 2008 10:04
- 217 of 331
Hot news..................
General Electrics sub prime lending divisions in the UK have just announced they are withdrawing all products.
These may well be replaced, but there has not yet been an announcement about this, and the unusual point is that they normally give notice of withdrawal and that a new product line up will be available immediately after. This time they have given no such notice or undertaking.
As I say it may be they have merely changed the way they announce, but I am not confident. This is just about the last of the 90%+ sub prime lenders.
Hoping it is just a rate change or tweak of criteria, but I am not at all confident. That could be a big blow to the lending and housing markets because those using these lenders will now have nowhere left to go, whereas when a large volume high street lender changes, people can just go elsewhere.
Will update when I know their next move, which will probably be tomorrow.
General Electrics sub prime lending divisions in the UK have just announced they are withdrawing all products.
These may well be replaced, but there has not yet been an announcement about this, and the unusual point is that they normally give notice of withdrawal and that a new product line up will be available immediately after. This time they have given no such notice or undertaking.
As I say it may be they have merely changed the way they announce, but I am not confident. This is just about the last of the 90%+ sub prime lenders.
Hoping it is just a rate change or tweak of criteria, but I am not at all confident. That could be a big blow to the lending and housing markets because those using these lenders will now have nowhere left to go, whereas when a large volume high street lender changes, people can just go elsewhere.
Will update when I know their next move, which will probably be tomorrow.
mitzy - 23 Jun 2008 10:09 - 218 of 331
This is turning into a bloodbath.
hewittalan6
- 23 Jun 2008 10:14
- 219 of 331
One possible bright spot over the weekend is that some mega rich bloke is looking at buying whats left of London Scottish.
London Scottish were a balance sheet sub prime lender, rather than the leveraged type. If this guy is seriously looking, then in effect he is looking to lend his own money in the subprime mortgage arena, and he didn't get mega rich by throwing his money away on dead ducks.......................
London Scottish were a balance sheet sub prime lender, rather than the leveraged type. If this guy is seriously looking, then in effect he is looking to lend his own money in the subprime mortgage arena, and he didn't get mega rich by throwing his money away on dead ducks.......................
spitfire43 - 23 Jun 2008 11:55 - 220 of 331
I have been trying to calculate at what stage we are at in this banking crisis (not a easy task) I know the values for the American banks before and after the Bank crisies of the early nineties, I haven't the data for UK banks for the 90s but would guess they could have been alike. You will see below I have compared the figures with RBS, BARC and LLOY.
US Banks 50% cheaper 9 months into crises (1991/2)
RBS,BARC & LLOY 55% cheaper 11 months into crises
US Banks from PE of 4.1% to 8.8%
RBS,BARC & LLOY from PE of 5.6% to 11.1%
US Banks from P/BV of 1.6 to 0.9
RBS,BARC & LLOY from P/BV of 2.28 to 1.01* = My best guess?
I think the comparisons are interesting, because the UK banks have now fallen further than the US banks in the early 90s crisis. This time I feel the crisis is more serious, but I'm sure we will look back at some great opportunities.
US Banks 50% cheaper 9 months into crises (1991/2)
RBS,BARC & LLOY 55% cheaper 11 months into crises
US Banks from PE of 4.1% to 8.8%
RBS,BARC & LLOY from PE of 5.6% to 11.1%
US Banks from P/BV of 1.6 to 0.9
RBS,BARC & LLOY from P/BV of 2.28 to 1.01* = My best guess?
I think the comparisons are interesting, because the UK banks have now fallen further than the US banks in the early 90s crisis. This time I feel the crisis is more serious, but I'm sure we will look back at some great opportunities.
halifax - 23 Jun 2008 12:21 - 221 of 331
IF banks sp are that good then seize the day!
spitfire43 - 23 Jun 2008 14:26 - 222 of 331
seize the day, in small instalments at least.
Like everyone else I have no idea where the bottom is, but I will average down slowly from now.
Like everyone else I have no idea where the bottom is, but I will average down slowly from now.
hewittalan6
- 23 Jun 2008 21:46
- 223 of 331
Uncomfirmed......
The reason for General Electric pulling all products from sale today and not announcing anything about replacements is that (according to an acquiantance) GE money and GE Home Lending are about to be taken over by Banco Santander (ie Abbey).
If I can get any confirmation (or anyone else can corroborate this) I will post on here.
The reason for General Electric pulling all products from sale today and not announcing anything about replacements is that (according to an acquiantance) GE money and GE Home Lending are about to be taken over by Banco Santander (ie Abbey).
If I can get any confirmation (or anyone else can corroborate this) I will post on here.
scotinvestor - 24 Jun 2008 00:32 - 224 of 331
damn spanish dagos.......the spanish....like the germans over last decade.....are buying more of british companies.......BAA, scottish power, abbey all being bought over by spanish dagos.
i used to work with english guy who didnt like germans....yet he worked for a german company and drove german car and german bike.
is anything british these days?
answers on a postcard pls to:
mr. g. (prudence) (Stalin) brown
10 downing street
london
i used to work with english guy who didnt like germans....yet he worked for a german company and drove german car and german bike.
is anything british these days?
answers on a postcard pls to:
mr. g. (prudence) (Stalin) brown
10 downing street
london
banjomick
- 24 Jun 2008 00:48
- 225 of 331
Wow,amazing charts for a particular sector when linked like that,why has HSBC appeared to buck the trend? Sorry,don't follow the banks but will do in future,good thread.
scotinvestor - 24 Jun 2008 01:03 - 226 of 331
i imagine cos HSBC ALTHOUGH in uk, are also mainly in asia etc.
a lot of banks are mainly uk based although some like barclays have a big base in usa.
you need to do some research on heads of bank right now banjo as 1 or 2 of banks are run by numpties with no banking experience.......yes, NO BANKING EXPERIENCE. i actually doubt whether they would be decent businessmen but certainly 1 or 2 are in the wrong profession.
a lot of banks are mainly uk based although some like barclays have a big base in usa.
you need to do some research on heads of bank right now banjo as 1 or 2 of banks are run by numpties with no banking experience.......yes, NO BANKING EXPERIENCE. i actually doubt whether they would be decent businessmen but certainly 1 or 2 are in the wrong profession.
mitzy - 24 Jun 2008 10:16 - 227 of 331
My prediction on the 8 th March have been correct.
hewittalan6
- 24 Jun 2008 16:01
- 228 of 331
Been seeking confirmation of the GE Money news.
1) The Banco Santander link appears true, but only for the car loan / credit card part of GE
2) The 2 secured lending divisions of GE are coming back with new rates, however my source was vary veiled with reerence to criteria changes
3) He thinks the link is co-incidental to the deal pulling, but is not totally sure.
The only thing certain is that they will continue with sub prime secured lending, which is a relief, as long as criteria does not change too much. If it does, that really does signal huge problems for the housing market and, by extension, the wider economy, though Banco Santander must have some faith to chase the car loan and credit card parts of the business.
1) The Banco Santander link appears true, but only for the car loan / credit card part of GE
2) The 2 secured lending divisions of GE are coming back with new rates, however my source was vary veiled with reerence to criteria changes
3) He thinks the link is co-incidental to the deal pulling, but is not totally sure.
The only thing certain is that they will continue with sub prime secured lending, which is a relief, as long as criteria does not change too much. If it does, that really does signal huge problems for the housing market and, by extension, the wider economy, though Banco Santander must have some faith to chase the car loan and credit card parts of the business.
hewittalan6
- 25 Jun 2008 12:37
- 229 of 331
Phew............
Panic over. GE are back in and the rate changes are minute, and the criteria remains the same.
Panic over. GE are back in and the rate changes are minute, and the criteria remains the same.
hewittalan6
- 25 Jun 2008 13:57
- 230 of 331
Interesting mumblings from an informed source at RBS.
They envisage no more great changes to rates or criteria until early 2009, when they believe the crisis will be over.
They position their rates to ensure service standards are met, keeping them "mid table" to ensure they get business, without being snowed under. In March they were market leading and were taking 3 weeks just to open the mail in the mortgage section.
They believe markets will normalise when "who owes what to whom in America" is sorted out. This is not banks owing the money, but large investors and pension funds. Once their balance sheets are known, they will start to make money available again on the wholesale debt markets.
They are quite bullish (in private) over the fate of the financial services sector in 2009, though admit that the weak will have gone by then.
They envisage no more great changes to rates or criteria until early 2009, when they believe the crisis will be over.
They position their rates to ensure service standards are met, keeping them "mid table" to ensure they get business, without being snowed under. In March they were market leading and were taking 3 weeks just to open the mail in the mortgage section.
They believe markets will normalise when "who owes what to whom in America" is sorted out. This is not banks owing the money, but large investors and pension funds. Once their balance sheets are known, they will start to make money available again on the wholesale debt markets.
They are quite bullish (in private) over the fate of the financial services sector in 2009, though admit that the weak will have gone by then.
pericles
- 25 Jun 2008 20:12
- 231 of 331
More from the ft, this time written by James Mackintosh giving details about banks trying to offload Asset Backed Securities at large discounts and giving loans to enable the transfer to go ahead. ie we will let you have these loans incl. subprimes at a 31% discount and will lend you a goodly portion of the remaining 69%. This way the bank gets it off the Balance sheet , sort of , as the article sez people are clearly trying to window dress their accounts.I was interested to see from hewitalan6 post above that there is prospect of normality returning next year perhaps, however I recall Barclays and RBS being summoned to the Fed as their subsidiaries maked them among the top 7 US banks and they had to explain their involvement thro those subsidiaries in the sub prime and other loan markets.maybe I have missed something in the past several months but I have this recurring thought that there is a pile of unexplained toxicity about to appear! maybe ABN Ambro has a finger in the pie?I am not a holder btw, here is the article:tfolio buyers
By James Mackintosh
Published: June 25 2008 03:00 | Last updated: June 25 2008 03:00
Commercial banks are offering finance to tempt bidders for multi-billion dollar portfolios of asset-backed securities, in an effort to release much-needed capital.
Hedge funds say banks - particularly European banks - have been hawking ABS portfolios since UBS gave BlackRock an $11.25bn loan to help the fund manager buy a $15bn mortgage portfolio from the Swiss bank last month.
The offer by banks to lend buyers a large chunk of the money to buy a portfolio underlines how desperate executives are to dump mortgage-backed securities.
Banks have also been trying to move ABS portfolios off the balance sheet by putting them into structures in which they can sell a hedge fund the first loss portion, giving the bank additional protection against credit problems in the securities - a structure very similar to offering a loan.
Queen's Walk, a London-listed vehicle run by Cheyne Capital, the $11bn hedge fund, said last week that triple A rated securities repackaged by banks were offering returns of "approximately 20 per cent".
Stuart Fiertz, co-founder of Cheyne, said: "We are working on trades where banks are deconsolidating pools of assets and providing leverage on them".
The moves mirror the financing packages made widely available for buyers of leveraged loans this year as banks raced to unload crippling exposure to loans to private equity buy-outs.
However, some hedge funds remain sceptical about the offer of finance bundled with a sale, fearing the bank would bump up the price of the assets to offset the cost of the loan.
One large London hedge fund manager said: "If someone is offering you leverage, it obviously comes with a cost".
Many ABS securities have fallen sharply in value, with those linked to subprime mortgages leading a fall in everything housing-related. For example, UBS sold a portfolio to BlackRock at a 31 per cent discount to its $22bn face value.
One hedge fund trader estimated that $50bn of ABS securities, mostly mortgages, could be moved off balance sheets by banks.
He said: "There are people clearly trying to window dress [their accounts]".
Bankers argue that bringing in a hedge fund or other buyer reduces the risk to a bank, even if significant finance is offered, because the new investor provides an equity cushion that must be lost before the bank suffers.
Mr Fiertz said portfolios being offered by banks were in the $2bn-$4bn range, with $1bn slices being sold.
One US hedge fund manager said banks had been given breathing space by the central bank extension of lending facilities, but European and US banks had balance sheets "littered with this stuff". "It is a complicated mess," he added.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
By James Mackintosh
Published: June 25 2008 03:00 | Last updated: June 25 2008 03:00
Commercial banks are offering finance to tempt bidders for multi-billion dollar portfolios of asset-backed securities, in an effort to release much-needed capital.
Hedge funds say banks - particularly European banks - have been hawking ABS portfolios since UBS gave BlackRock an $11.25bn loan to help the fund manager buy a $15bn mortgage portfolio from the Swiss bank last month.
The offer by banks to lend buyers a large chunk of the money to buy a portfolio underlines how desperate executives are to dump mortgage-backed securities.
Banks have also been trying to move ABS portfolios off the balance sheet by putting them into structures in which they can sell a hedge fund the first loss portion, giving the bank additional protection against credit problems in the securities - a structure very similar to offering a loan.
Queen's Walk, a London-listed vehicle run by Cheyne Capital, the $11bn hedge fund, said last week that triple A rated securities repackaged by banks were offering returns of "approximately 20 per cent".
Stuart Fiertz, co-founder of Cheyne, said: "We are working on trades where banks are deconsolidating pools of assets and providing leverage on them".
The moves mirror the financing packages made widely available for buyers of leveraged loans this year as banks raced to unload crippling exposure to loans to private equity buy-outs.
However, some hedge funds remain sceptical about the offer of finance bundled with a sale, fearing the bank would bump up the price of the assets to offset the cost of the loan.
One large London hedge fund manager said: "If someone is offering you leverage, it obviously comes with a cost".
Many ABS securities have fallen sharply in value, with those linked to subprime mortgages leading a fall in everything housing-related. For example, UBS sold a portfolio to BlackRock at a 31 per cent discount to its $22bn face value.
One hedge fund trader estimated that $50bn of ABS securities, mostly mortgages, could be moved off balance sheets by banks.
He said: "There are people clearly trying to window dress [their accounts]".
Bankers argue that bringing in a hedge fund or other buyer reduces the risk to a bank, even if significant finance is offered, because the new investor provides an equity cushion that must be lost before the bank suffers.
Mr Fiertz said portfolios being offered by banks were in the $2bn-$4bn range, with $1bn slices being sold.
One US hedge fund manager said banks had been given breathing space by the central bank extension of lending facilities, but European and US banks had balance sheets "littered with this stuff". "It is a complicated mess," he added.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
robertalexander
- 27 Jun 2008 08:28
- 232 of 331
Am i right in thinking that HBOS nil paid shares are now trading wef 0800 today and do they have an epic code?
are they in minus figures and if so do you get them for free/nominal fee(plus costs)?
Alex
are they in minus figures and if so do you get them for free/nominal fee(plus costs)?
Alex
hewittalan6
- 27 Jun 2008 08:34
- 233 of 331
More interesting mumblings from the big banks.............
Quote; "We are not frightened of lending money, but until the balance sheet is confirmed in the light of writedowns, we need to control exactly how much we lend. The easy way to do this is to try and price our way out of the market."
This was in response to questioning on dual pricing - the same product being cheaper in branch than through intermediaries or on-line application.
Its all about control. The banks do not want to write loans and mortgages in branch - it is too expensive. They want business from the intermediary network, which is cheaper for them, but if the product is market leading, they get too many applications they must honour.
The other comments were an expectation that as much as 50% of brokerages will go to the wall, and when better times roll, fewer players will be sharing a slightly smaller cake, but those left will be fitter and more diversified.
When this is coupled with the immense difficulty in starting any new brokerage (The FSA ban all forms of prospecting for clients) one can see a consolidation in the industry, leading to a few big players.
Now BNH are taken over by Towergate, I am struggling to see who is left.
Of the big networks, Charcol are reportedly struggling and most of the rest are privately or mutually owned (such as Pink - owned by Skipton B Soc).
One or two have been aimed at going public for some time (such as Mortgage Times) and these are the ones I will be keeping an eye on.
As a footnote, at least 2 sub prime lenders have diversified to the point where they no longer lend, but take deposits instead!!
1 is offering rates as high as 9% on instant access deposit accounts!
The brokers who use these routes and offer extras such as insurance and debt consolidation are the ones who will weather the storm.
Quote; "We are not frightened of lending money, but until the balance sheet is confirmed in the light of writedowns, we need to control exactly how much we lend. The easy way to do this is to try and price our way out of the market."
This was in response to questioning on dual pricing - the same product being cheaper in branch than through intermediaries or on-line application.
Its all about control. The banks do not want to write loans and mortgages in branch - it is too expensive. They want business from the intermediary network, which is cheaper for them, but if the product is market leading, they get too many applications they must honour.
The other comments were an expectation that as much as 50% of brokerages will go to the wall, and when better times roll, fewer players will be sharing a slightly smaller cake, but those left will be fitter and more diversified.
When this is coupled with the immense difficulty in starting any new brokerage (The FSA ban all forms of prospecting for clients) one can see a consolidation in the industry, leading to a few big players.
Now BNH are taken over by Towergate, I am struggling to see who is left.
Of the big networks, Charcol are reportedly struggling and most of the rest are privately or mutually owned (such as Pink - owned by Skipton B Soc).
One or two have been aimed at going public for some time (such as Mortgage Times) and these are the ones I will be keeping an eye on.
As a footnote, at least 2 sub prime lenders have diversified to the point where they no longer lend, but take deposits instead!!
1 is offering rates as high as 9% on instant access deposit accounts!
The brokers who use these routes and offer extras such as insurance and debt consolidation are the ones who will weather the storm.
hlyeo98 - 27 Jun 2008 12:53 - 234 of 331
Bradford and Bingley may go to sub 55p next week (see BB. thread)
robertalexander
- 30 Jun 2008 08:09
- 235 of 331
do we have an epic for trading HBOS nil paid rights?
mitzy - 01 Jul 2008 10:13 - 236 of 331
RBS sub 200p today maybe..?
scotinvestor - 01 Jul 2008 18:18 - 237 of 331
stock market wont improve until banks have turned a corner....and country wont improve either as an economy
mitzy - 02 Jul 2008 09:37 - 238 of 331
About time Fred went.
hlyeo98 - 04 Jul 2008 21:27 - 239 of 331
Just as I predicted, BB. is 50p today.
mitzy - 05 Jul 2008 08:49 - 240 of 331
My prediction on the 17th March.
20p eventually.
20p eventually.
hewittalan6
- 11 Jul 2008 17:21
- 241 of 331
Interesting news from Northern Rock today.
They are enhancing the commission fees payable to intermediaries for introducing loan / mortgage business to them.
This is odd as they have spent much time and money convincing existing clients that they would be better moving their mortgage elsewhere.
My feeling is that the recovery plan is either ahead of expectations and they are priming to re-enter the market properly, or it is way behind expectations and they need to generate application fees to meet their repayment promises.
I tend to the latter, but it is a very strange move in the current climate.
They are enhancing the commission fees payable to intermediaries for introducing loan / mortgage business to them.
This is odd as they have spent much time and money convincing existing clients that they would be better moving their mortgage elsewhere.
My feeling is that the recovery plan is either ahead of expectations and they are priming to re-enter the market properly, or it is way behind expectations and they need to generate application fees to meet their repayment promises.
I tend to the latter, but it is a very strange move in the current climate.
hlyeo98 - 11 Jul 2008 18:24 - 242 of 331
I think UK is already in recession now. FTSE in bear territory, so expect the banks to be mauled by the bears even further.
scotinvestor - 11 Jul 2008 18:46 - 243 of 331
there aint much left to maul, hyleo......many banks are 2 to 3....rbs is only 182p and they r 5th biggest bank in world. if they go under, uk is finished
uk needs conservative gov immediately as economy is screwed totally.....it will take a decade for country to improve at least, maybe even a generation. i dont know anyone that doesnt complain about state of the country.
what bottom targets do u have for barc, hbos, rbs, lloy......as i'm looking to buy in.......maybe 6-12 months time
uk needs conservative gov immediately as economy is screwed totally.....it will take a decade for country to improve at least, maybe even a generation. i dont know anyone that doesnt complain about state of the country.
what bottom targets do u have for barc, hbos, rbs, lloy......as i'm looking to buy in.......maybe 6-12 months time
scotinvestor - 11 Jul 2008 18:50 - 244 of 331
this will finish labour gov off too........just announced tonight in scotland that snp are now number 1 party in polls in scotland.....labour has lost 11% in poll and is 2nd....even conservatives here aint that far behind them which shows the discontent here. if labour have lost votes in scotland, then it wull be meltdown in england......i think lib dems might even get 2nd place ahead of labour in next uk election
bristlelad - 11 Jul 2008 20:31 - 245 of 331
DREAM ON BABY//
Falcothou - 11 Jul 2008 21:21 - 246 of 331
If you think it's bad here check out stateside
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
scotinvestor - 12 Jul 2008 00:54 - 247 of 331
america is about to be disposed as number 1 superpower by china....and $ will soon go down the pan......usa is corrupt....and remember how they treated our british bankers in chains etc when all the evidence and witnesses were in uk......its about time we broke our links with usa.....they tried to bankrupt uk anyway after ww11 with a financial dunkirk on loans
in short, they r bullying, corrupt thugs
in short, they r bullying, corrupt thugs
brianboru
- 12 Jul 2008 01:34
- 248 of 331
Have you met the Chinese? Some of the cruellest people on earth both to animals and humans. God help us if they ever become No.1..
The USA, especially under Bush may not be perfect but it's the best we've got..
brianboru
- 12 Jul 2008 01:36
- 249 of 331
My insider at MAN tells me they are taking RBS down to 176p - sadly for me as I bought at 5, 2,80 and 2.34 :o(
spitfire43 - 12 Jul 2008 09:38 - 250 of 331
brianboru, I'm not clear what you mean, are MAN taking RBS down actively, or talking them down as a opinion. I would hope it's the later.
Falcothou - 12 Jul 2008 18:13 - 251 of 331
Sovereign wealth funds were kind enough to bail out our banks and are now sitting on huge losses, unfortunately they probably won't want to catch another falling knife and bail them out some more. The Shanghai stock exchange has dropped 60% since October, they have 20% wage inflation, slowing demand from West, spent billions on Olympics have been devastated by flooding and earthquakes. The oil shock is devastating to China as it is built on cheap transport.Mercantilist policy of holding down yuan to boost exports has hit buffers. Expect pendulum to swing back from China to America according to Daily telegraph
spitfire43 - 12 Jul 2008 20:36 - 252 of 331
Good post Falcothou, and haven't seen the telegraph article but will try and read it online. I have thought for some month's that China will keep growing at all costs upto the Olmpics, then after I would expect to see the bubble burst big time. America for all it's problems is still the main driving force of world economics, they have led us into recession and they will lead us out again. After all the USA and Europe account for a very large percentage of chinese exports, imports most be shrinking now, so China will feel the slowdown soon.
Falcothou - 13 Jul 2008 09:31 - 253 of 331
Also who is crueller the Chinese working in inhumane conditions for a pittance struggling to afford escalating food or those in the West who couldn't be bothered doing the dirty work themselves complaining the chickens have finally come home to roost, the slaves deserve a day in the sun
hewittalan6
- 14 Jul 2008 17:20
- 254 of 331
Several large lenders have reduced their fixed rates over the last week or two, including HBOS, Abbey and Nationwide. Now some are offering fixes with no fees up to 90% LTV.
Banco Santander have launched a bid to buy A&L.
Is it over? No. But the bottom has been reached despite the problems of our friends across the pond.
If the Spanish are looking to buy into our mortgage lending market, perhaps its time we had a look as well.
I am going bargain hunting. Not confident enough to pile loads in willy nilly, but if I see value, I will take a chunk.
Banco Santander have launched a bid to buy A&L.
Is it over? No. But the bottom has been reached despite the problems of our friends across the pond.
If the Spanish are looking to buy into our mortgage lending market, perhaps its time we had a look as well.
I am going bargain hunting. Not confident enough to pile loads in willy nilly, but if I see value, I will take a chunk.
scotinvestor - 14 Jul 2008 21:08 - 255 of 331
theres been rumours here since even last year that hbos will be taken over by the spanish dagos too.....in fact i know a hbos worker who has tipped it in my area.
hewittalan6
- 15 Jul 2008 07:47
- 256 of 331
The mortgage and credit card part of GE is falling to the spaniards as well.
hewittalan6
- 15 Jul 2008 09:39
- 257 of 331
A good reason why the UK will not suffer as badly as the USA in the financial sector;
Fannie May and Freddie Mac have secured loans out to the tune of 65 times their regulatory capital. In the UK a bank must have at least 4% regulatory capital, therefore their loans are only 25 times this size. The capital adequacy rules may have prevented a full meltdown.
Fannie May and Freddie Mac have secured loans out to the tune of 65 times their regulatory capital. In the UK a bank must have at least 4% regulatory capital, therefore their loans are only 25 times this size. The capital adequacy rules may have prevented a full meltdown.
hlyeo98 - 11 Sep 2008 19:23 - 258 of 331
Lehman shares plunge 40% following analyst downgrades, just a day after reporting $3.9B loss.
NEW YORK - Shares of Lehman Brothers suffered another painful drop Thursday as doubts swirled about the company's future and several analysts downgraded their ratings on the stock.
Lehman shares, which have fallen 89% so far this year, plunged another 37% in mid-afternoon trading.
As speculation grows about the possibility that the government may have to step in to help Lehman as it did with Bear Stearns back in March, the Treasury Department told CNN that it "is monitoring markets and remains in contact with market participants."
Goldman Sachs' analyst William Tanona downgraded Lehman to "neutral" from "buy", citing Wednesday's bigger-than-expected $3.9 billion loss and concerns about the company's restructuring plan.
Also, in an effort to save $450 million, Lehman said it planned to reduce its annual dividend to 5 cents per share from 68 cents.
NEW YORK - Shares of Lehman Brothers suffered another painful drop Thursday as doubts swirled about the company's future and several analysts downgraded their ratings on the stock.
Lehman shares, which have fallen 89% so far this year, plunged another 37% in mid-afternoon trading.
As speculation grows about the possibility that the government may have to step in to help Lehman as it did with Bear Stearns back in March, the Treasury Department told CNN that it "is monitoring markets and remains in contact with market participants."
Goldman Sachs' analyst William Tanona downgraded Lehman to "neutral" from "buy", citing Wednesday's bigger-than-expected $3.9 billion loss and concerns about the company's restructuring plan.
Also, in an effort to save $450 million, Lehman said it planned to reduce its annual dividend to 5 cents per share from 68 cents.
spitfire43 - 12 Sep 2008 08:26 - 259 of 331
Lehman are looking for a white knight, I read last night that Barclays or HSBC could be in the frame, fortunately for there share holders this seems unlikely with talks underway with Bank of America.
With the Fed acting a possible guarantee, like the deal with Bear Sterns then it must only be an American bank that is in the frame.
With the Fed acting a possible guarantee, like the deal with Bear Sterns then it must only be an American bank that is in the frame.
justyi - 12 Sep 2008 16:09 - 260 of 331
NEW YORK 12/9/2008 - As Wall Street continues to speculate about the fate of Lehman Brothers, shares of the besieged firm continued to see their value evaporate Friday.
Just a day after the company's stock plummeted 42%, Lehman shares fell 14% in early trading.
This week has marked one of the most difficult periods in the Lehman Brothers' storied 158-year history.
Amid rabid speculation about the firm's health and possible asset sales, the company delivered its results more than a week in advance on Wednesday, owning up to a nearly $4 billion quarterly loss - its biggest ever since the company went public in 1994.
Just a day after the company's stock plummeted 42%, Lehman shares fell 14% in early trading.
This week has marked one of the most difficult periods in the Lehman Brothers' storied 158-year history.
Amid rabid speculation about the firm's health and possible asset sales, the company delivered its results more than a week in advance on Wednesday, owning up to a nearly $4 billion quarterly loss - its biggest ever since the company went public in 1994.
hlyeo98 - 14 Sep 2008 21:46 - 261 of 331
Lehman is going down...
Source repeats Paulson wants no govt funds for Lehman - AFX
WASHINGTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry remains strongly opposed to using government money in any deal aimed at resolving a crisis at Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers, a source familiar with his thinking repeated on Sunday.
A similar characterization of his position was first offered on Friday before intense weekend talks began in New York on Lehman's fate.
By Sunday afternoon, chances for a deal that would see another firm take over Lehman appeared to be fading and prospects were increasing that it could go bankrupt.
Source repeats Paulson wants no govt funds for Lehman - AFX
WASHINGTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry remains strongly opposed to using government money in any deal aimed at resolving a crisis at Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers, a source familiar with his thinking repeated on Sunday.
A similar characterization of his position was first offered on Friday before intense weekend talks began in New York on Lehman's fate.
By Sunday afternoon, chances for a deal that would see another firm take over Lehman appeared to be fading and prospects were increasing that it could go bankrupt.
Falcothou - 14 Sep 2008 23:05 - 262 of 331
dow futures just opened already sub 11200 at 11pm
mojo47
- 15 Sep 2008 00:31
- 263 of 331
sounds like we are in for a very bumpy ride boys
dealerdear - 15 Sep 2008 07:30 - 264 of 331
bumpy being the understatement.
Leham's bankrupt, Merrill taken over, US banking system in disarray doesn't look good for UK banks
Leham's bankrupt, Merrill taken over, US banking system in disarray doesn't look good for UK banks
hlyeo98 - 15 Sep 2008 08:17 - 265 of 331
Fed is running out of cash otherwise I feel they would bail Lehman out.
required field - 15 Sep 2008 08:21 - 266 of 331
We better hope that this does not get any worse..!.
mitzy - 15 Sep 2008 08:24 - 267 of 331
dont worry it will with GB in charge ..
Falcothou - 15 Sep 2008 08:25 - 268 of 331
The American taxpayer probably has cottoned on that their great grandkids will be paying for these bail outs !
nordcaperen
- 15 Sep 2008 08:26
- 269 of 331
Some bargains to be had today !!!
required field - 15 Sep 2008 08:29 - 270 of 331
At this rate all the windowledges will be booked in the city well in advance, you will have to queue up to jump out !.
mitzy - 15 Sep 2008 08:30 - 271 of 331
HBOS is falling to 200p who would have believed in 12 months ago.
spitfire43 - 15 Sep 2008 08:31 - 272 of 331
Fed had to allow Lehmans to fail, this is how a capitilist system should work. Will be a very volatile few weeks, but I wonder if we will look back and see this week as a low point but also a turning point in this economic cycle.
nordcaperen
- 15 Sep 2008 08:47
- 273 of 331
Can see Bradford and Bingley getting snapped up by another foriegn bank at these levels, and I bet all Alliance and Leicester holders wish they'd got there fingers out ant got the Santander offer sorted. Some good news will surface before the days out. But not be before the big institutions fill their boots at our expense :-(
nordcaperen
- 15 Sep 2008 09:56
- 274 of 331
mitzy - just seen hbos why they taking such a battering in relation to the others - looks a bit overdone to me.
mitzy - 15 Sep 2008 10:03 - 275 of 331
Yes nord Hbos down 17% today I reckon they could fall another 25% due to the Lehman crisis.
robertalexander
- 15 Sep 2008 13:07
- 276 of 331
am in LLOY. have a little spare cash and wondering whether to top up or pick one of the other banks. or should i wait a day or two and see if they keep falling. they will all go back eventually. i am only investing small amounts monthly so ave down isnt a problem but trying to get most for my small investment.
anyone care to share their tuppence worth.
Alex
anyone care to share their tuppence worth.
Alex
Clubman3509
- 15 Sep 2008 13:20
- 277 of 331
Banks what a day bought HBOS at 180 wish I had bought more now at 213
nordcaperen
- 15 Sep 2008 14:05
- 278 of 331
I,ve been in and out of BB. all day - nearly doubled my holding for same amount of money, still got a few days of this I should think, just keep increasing by selling off half when it blips up and buy a shed full more when it drops back down - Will have a field day when it turns.
BigTed
- 15 Sep 2008 14:21
- 279 of 331
always the time to buy, when you and everyone around you is crapping them selves... headlines are that the earth is going to implode... lol
nordcaperen
- 15 Sep 2008 14:42
- 280 of 331
Some people will have made a lot of money today !!! I feel sorry for Joe Soap who will get home tonight and check is nest egg to see its plummeted while he's been working all day and not been able to do a thing about it. God knows what we did before computers :-)
nordcaperen
- 15 Sep 2008 14:51
- 281 of 331
This is better than horse racing !
robertalexander
- 18 Sep 2008 17:12
- 282 of 331
anyone care to speculate which way the banks will go tomorrow?
I sold my lloy and hbos to protect a very small profit[more by luck than judgement] My intent was to hold for long term but got a bit concerned by the seriously fluctuating markets.
I still like lloy and also barc as I think they have managed to pick up some bargains but not sure when to get back in. ie do I wait until the dust has settled and pay a bigger SP or gamble now and hope I choose the right bank?
anyone care to chuck their tuppence worth in? [opinions only]
Alex
I sold my lloy and hbos to protect a very small profit[more by luck than judgement] My intent was to hold for long term but got a bit concerned by the seriously fluctuating markets.
I still like lloy and also barc as I think they have managed to pick up some bargains but not sure when to get back in. ie do I wait until the dust has settled and pay a bigger SP or gamble now and hope I choose the right bank?
anyone care to chuck their tuppence worth in? [opinions only]
Alex
Stan
- 18 Sep 2008 18:09
- 283 of 331
I'm not being funny but "gamble now and hope". If thats part of your thinking have you considered premium bonds?
To have a reasonable chance at this game can I suggest you firstly work out a strategy that doesn't have "gamble and hope" in it. That way you will have a better chance of being successful.
To have a reasonable chance at this game can I suggest you firstly work out a strategy that doesn't have "gamble and hope" in it. That way you will have a better chance of being successful.
queen1 - 18 Sep 2008 18:34 - 284 of 331
Probably a contentious view but I think in the long-term the HBOS purchase by Lloyds will be considered one of the deals of the century.....
scotinvestor - 18 Sep 2008 22:59 - 285 of 331
uk will be bankrupt soon
Guscavalier
- 19 Sep 2008 09:10
- 286 of 331
Agree with you queen1.
scotinvestor- I expect your mate Hornby is in for a good pay off. He seemed to be smiling all over his face when the was shaking hands with Lloyds ceo Daniels at the press conference.
scotinvestor- I expect your mate Hornby is in for a good pay off. He seemed to be smiling all over his face when the was shaking hands with Lloyds ceo Daniels at the press conference.
scotinvestor - 21 Sep 2008 03:07 - 287 of 331
hornby is getting about 2 million quid in shares!!!
disgusting, obscene and sickening.........this may sound bad but i hope he gets terminal cancer soon in life and dies in agony.
oh......and whats going to happen to bank of scotland currency?
and whats going to happen to pensions?
i'm sure lloyds wont give a stuff but this has to be sorted out.
i said all year that hornby knows NOTHING about banking.....hbos have taken on a dimwit.....just cos he went to harvard doesnt make him brainy........at end of day, its a yorkshire building society with dimwits on board that have collapse a very profitable bank with more than 300 years of honest, old fashioned banking.........actually it was based on a COMMUNIST set-up with employees paid on what bank thought u could survive on......but u couldnt, lol......thats how the old bank made money.....that and talking to customers which sadly doesnt happen with these damn computers taking over.
i better stop or i'll be advocating stalin to take over soon
disgusting, obscene and sickening.........this may sound bad but i hope he gets terminal cancer soon in life and dies in agony.
oh......and whats going to happen to bank of scotland currency?
and whats going to happen to pensions?
i'm sure lloyds wont give a stuff but this has to be sorted out.
i said all year that hornby knows NOTHING about banking.....hbos have taken on a dimwit.....just cos he went to harvard doesnt make him brainy........at end of day, its a yorkshire building society with dimwits on board that have collapse a very profitable bank with more than 300 years of honest, old fashioned banking.........actually it was based on a COMMUNIST set-up with employees paid on what bank thought u could survive on......but u couldnt, lol......thats how the old bank made money.....that and talking to customers which sadly doesnt happen with these damn computers taking over.
i better stop or i'll be advocating stalin to take over soon
scotinvestor - 21 Sep 2008 03:09 - 288 of 331
hornby better look out for the scottish mafia
goldfinger
- 21 Sep 2008 04:42
- 289 of 331
scotinvestor - 21 Sep 2008 17:45 - 290 of 331
Interesting article which explains it better:
"Those who argue for unrestricted short-selling ignore the fact that the system is loaded in favour of the bears. If an individual invests 1,000, or an institution 1m, in the shares of a troubled company because they think in the long term it will recover, they have deployed their capital, and all they can do is wait. There is no more to invest; their resources are finite.
If a short-seller comes on the scene, his resources are in effect infinite because he first borrows the shares he then sells. Given that the revenue from the sale is more than the borrowing cost of the shares, he has no net capital constraint and can continue indefinitely - so much so that in one celebrated case a few years ago, one person shorted 250% of a company's equity, though he did get into trouble for it.
If the target is a bank, the dice are even more loaded. As the selling drives the share price down, two things happen.
First, the rating agencies announce a review of the credit rating, or worse a downgrade. This will force the bank to sell assets to shore up its capital position, and will set alarm bells ringing. At the same time, other banks will get nervous about dealing with it as a counterparty and either curb their business or charge more, thereby weakening the target bank still further.
Short-selling becomes self-fulfilling because the tumbling share price erodes confidence in the bank, and that weakens so it is worth less - until the ultimate cataclysm when people start queuing in the street to withdraw their money, at which point it is doomed and the authorities have to nationalise it.
However, in doing this it is politically impossible for them to bail out the shareholders. So they take the bank over for nothing - or get it rescued at a much-reduced price - thereby wiping out the long-term investors who are the bedrock of the system, handing massive rewards to the short-sellers who have done the damage and leaving the taxpayer to finance the clean-up.
On the way, they have destroyed a business that did not need to be destroyed. So yes. It is time short-selling of banks was banned. "
"Those who argue for unrestricted short-selling ignore the fact that the system is loaded in favour of the bears. If an individual invests 1,000, or an institution 1m, in the shares of a troubled company because they think in the long term it will recover, they have deployed their capital, and all they can do is wait. There is no more to invest; their resources are finite.
If a short-seller comes on the scene, his resources are in effect infinite because he first borrows the shares he then sells. Given that the revenue from the sale is more than the borrowing cost of the shares, he has no net capital constraint and can continue indefinitely - so much so that in one celebrated case a few years ago, one person shorted 250% of a company's equity, though he did get into trouble for it.
If the target is a bank, the dice are even more loaded. As the selling drives the share price down, two things happen.
First, the rating agencies announce a review of the credit rating, or worse a downgrade. This will force the bank to sell assets to shore up its capital position, and will set alarm bells ringing. At the same time, other banks will get nervous about dealing with it as a counterparty and either curb their business or charge more, thereby weakening the target bank still further.
Short-selling becomes self-fulfilling because the tumbling share price erodes confidence in the bank, and that weakens so it is worth less - until the ultimate cataclysm when people start queuing in the street to withdraw their money, at which point it is doomed and the authorities have to nationalise it.
However, in doing this it is politically impossible for them to bail out the shareholders. So they take the bank over for nothing - or get it rescued at a much-reduced price - thereby wiping out the long-term investors who are the bedrock of the system, handing massive rewards to the short-sellers who have done the damage and leaving the taxpayer to finance the clean-up.
On the way, they have destroyed a business that did not need to be destroyed. So yes. It is time short-selling of banks was banned. "
scotinvestor - 21 Sep 2008 17:47 - 291 of 331
aye goldfinger........uk is full of corruption these days just like dodgy countries around the world but maybe to a diluted version.
goldfinger
- 22 Sep 2008 03:55
- 292 of 331
British hedge funds to sue over short-sale ban: reports
By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:38 p.m. EDT Sept. 21, 2008
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/british-hedge-funds-sue-over/story.aspx?guid=%7B5DE1279C%2DFA8F%2D4CA0%2DB0E4%2D65A45E5C7D4C%7D&dist=hplatest
By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:38 p.m. EDT Sept. 21, 2008
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/british-hedge-funds-sue-over/story.aspx?guid=%7B5DE1279C%2DFA8F%2D4CA0%2DB0E4%2D65A45E5C7D4C%7D&dist=hplatest
scotinvestor - 22 Sep 2008 09:32 - 293 of 331
lol........lets hope all the hedge funds go bust.....that would be hilarious
goldfinger
- 22 Sep 2008 11:25
- 294 of 331
Nope dont think so.
Whos going to pick up the tab if they win there court cases..... yep the tax payer as per usual.
Whos going to pick up the tab if they win there court cases..... yep the tax payer as per usual.
aldwickk
- 22 Sep 2008 12:20
- 295 of 331
Most investers would have opened short positions if they thought they could make money, that's the name of the game to make money. A lot that is being said about it is sourer grapes. But the big players have been bending or breaking the rules/law.
hewittalan6
- 22 Sep 2008 12:28
- 296 of 331
Random thoughts;
The goose that lays the golden egg has been killed off.
The issue for me isn't shorting per se, it is the huge amount of leverage available to those who wish to short, and (I am sure I had this conversation with Cynic sometime ago) the increased availability of short positions through spread betting and cfd's etc.
Yep, the name of the game is to make money, but the tool for doing so, (the financial markets) were created and devised for the benefit of the whole economy and the corporations wishing to grow. They were never devised to make instant profits for the few.
The hedge funds will fail in their legal argument. The FSA has statutory obligation to protect and promote financial markets and make sure they are orderly. They have no obligation to protect the interests of market counterparty users of the markets, only retail purchasors.
The goose that lays the golden egg has been killed off.
The issue for me isn't shorting per se, it is the huge amount of leverage available to those who wish to short, and (I am sure I had this conversation with Cynic sometime ago) the increased availability of short positions through spread betting and cfd's etc.
Yep, the name of the game is to make money, but the tool for doing so, (the financial markets) were created and devised for the benefit of the whole economy and the corporations wishing to grow. They were never devised to make instant profits for the few.
The hedge funds will fail in their legal argument. The FSA has statutory obligation to protect and promote financial markets and make sure they are orderly. They have no obligation to protect the interests of market counterparty users of the markets, only retail purchasors.
Dil
- 22 Sep 2008 12:46
- 297 of 331
The same leverage is available to those wishing to go long too hewittalan so it works both ways.
hewittalan6
- 22 Sep 2008 13:00
- 298 of 331
Indeed it does, Dil, but the difference is that leveraging an investment brings great benefit to a company, as its value rises exponentially, but leveraged shorting damages it beyond that which is true.
In truth, the chaos, meltdown and posiible slump all come down to a desire by everyone to live or generate profit, beyond their own means.
There are those who lambast banks for lending too high multiples, or to too risky propositions yet are happy enough to trade on margins etc.
One and the same, really.
When (if) this is all over, we may see a bull run of ridiculous proportions, on stocks and/or property, and this will be down to leveraging and will see many more get their fingers burned. Perhaps controlling the leveraging is as important as controlling the shorting.
In truth, the chaos, meltdown and posiible slump all come down to a desire by everyone to live or generate profit, beyond their own means.
There are those who lambast banks for lending too high multiples, or to too risky propositions yet are happy enough to trade on margins etc.
One and the same, really.
When (if) this is all over, we may see a bull run of ridiculous proportions, on stocks and/or property, and this will be down to leveraging and will see many more get their fingers burned. Perhaps controlling the leveraging is as important as controlling the shorting.
goldfinger
- 22 Sep 2008 13:58
- 299 of 331
Wouldnt mind but less than 3% of HBOS market cap was being shorted when the ban came into place. Not only that but banks have been shorting the ass off of each other over the last few months. How ironic.
There becoming a protected specis on incentive pay and selling to gullible types just to line there own pockets.
OK for Barclays traders and other bank traders to short eg, housing stocks but not vise versa. This ban will backfire badly.
Wheres the regulation from within?????????, hardly a jot mentioned from the banks over the last week or so.
There becoming a protected specis on incentive pay and selling to gullible types just to line there own pockets.
OK for Barclays traders and other bank traders to short eg, housing stocks but not vise versa. This ban will backfire badly.
Wheres the regulation from within?????????, hardly a jot mentioned from the banks over the last week or so.
Clubman3509
- 22 Sep 2008 14:15
- 300 of 331
Maybe the can get no win no fee deal from their legal teams
goldfinger
- 22 Sep 2008 14:19
- 301 of 331
Ive seen it all now.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=452405&in_page_id=3
Beggars belief.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=452405&in_page_id=3
Beggars belief.
kimoldfield
- 22 Sep 2008 14:25
- 302 of 331
Goldfinger, d'you know what - it no longer surprises me when I read things like that! Sign of the times eh?!
chocolat
- 22 Sep 2008 18:03
- 303 of 331
goldfinger
- 23 Sep 2008 01:49
- 304 of 331
Kim, certainly is.
Just look how the DOW closed tonight.
Just look how the DOW closed tonight.
mitzy - 23 Sep 2008 14:25 - 305 of 331
I am of the belief we will have a sell-off of banks mid October before things can improve.
nordcaperen
- 23 Sep 2008 15:10
- 306 of 331
I'm of the belief that we need 2 or 3 Max. Superbanks to get things back to normality - so come on guys snap up the piddly little players and get your fingers out !! Dont like these markets like this.
hewittalan6
- 23 Sep 2008 17:59
- 307 of 331
Hot News.
I cannot name the institutions involved, unfortunately, but..........
A particular investment vehicle had bought a lot of sub prime mortgages with the intention of keeping some, but selling the bulk on in smaller lots. They have been unable to do this.
Their answer has been to start mailing their client bank offering to reduce the mortgage debt by 15% and waive all exit fees and redemption penalties if they move their mortgage to another lender in the next couple of months.
This sounds a little desperate, but in truth they would sell their book at a discount anyway, so it might actually be a stroke of genius.
I cannot name the institutions involved, unfortunately, but..........
A particular investment vehicle had bought a lot of sub prime mortgages with the intention of keeping some, but selling the bulk on in smaller lots. They have been unable to do this.
Their answer has been to start mailing their client bank offering to reduce the mortgage debt by 15% and waive all exit fees and redemption penalties if they move their mortgage to another lender in the next couple of months.
This sounds a little desperate, but in truth they would sell their book at a discount anyway, so it might actually be a stroke of genius.
spitfire43 - 23 Sep 2008 20:04 - 308 of 331
Looks like tomorrow could be another bad day for financials, but you can never tell in these markets. With bank shares seeing such violent movements, I'm trying to find some good trading ranges, which isn't easy. I had a RBS range of 180p to 240p planned , but last Thursday I managed a buy at 153p, so will wait for another opportunity.
Just looked at Bradford and Bingley after hearing reports that a buyer is being actively looked for, the sp was down to below 24p today which = 408m market cap. The question is at what price would BB. be worth taking a small position with, in the hope of a white knight riding to it's rescue on a fine Arab charger.
Just looked at Bradford and Bingley after hearing reports that a buyer is being actively looked for, the sp was down to below 24p today which = 408m market cap. The question is at what price would BB. be worth taking a small position with, in the hope of a white knight riding to it's rescue on a fine Arab charger.
spitfire43 - 24 Sep 2008 08:50 - 309 of 331
The DOW futures reversed yesterdays fall of 160 point's, they liked the news that Warren Buffett to take a 10% stake in Goldman Sachs for $10Billion, after they changed status to a holding bank.
I remember Warren Buffett saying that he doesn't invest in companies he thinks are too complicated to understand, meaning Banks. The last time he invested in a bank was in 1987 (Saloman Bros) so something has changed his mind.
This I believe is a significant move for financials in America.
I remember Warren Buffett saying that he doesn't invest in companies he thinks are too complicated to understand, meaning Banks. The last time he invested in a bank was in 1987 (Saloman Bros) so something has changed his mind.
This I believe is a significant move for financials in America.
Guscavalier
- 24 Sep 2008 10:16
- 310 of 331
I think you will find that he has a significant stake in Wells Fargo which he has had for many years.
spitfire43 - 24 Sep 2008 10:33 - 311 of 331
Wells Fargo are the American equivalent to lloy before last weeks deal with hbos, so I can see what attracted him to them.
I'm in two minds with this takeover, on one hand I think it will be good long term for lloy, but on the other hand it will cause alot of short term uncertainty. And I was more than happy with lloy before, good dividend, safe boring company, just like a bank should be.
I'm in two minds with this takeover, on one hand I think it will be good long term for lloy, but on the other hand it will cause alot of short term uncertainty. And I was more than happy with lloy before, good dividend, safe boring company, just like a bank should be.
Guscavalier
- 24 Sep 2008 11:03
- 312 of 331
Yes I expect most of the banks wished they had been boring over the past few years. Alot of this has to be taken on trust but, I would think that longer term the market will look on the HBOS deal favourably . However, I think they may rebase the dividend. The Buffet move in the states with Goldman Sachs is a good indication of longer term value. I bet there will be a good shake up there though.
Guscavalier
- 24 Sep 2008 19:37
- 313 of 331
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aBtJbUvMKdXM
An interesting read
An interesting read
spitfire43 - 24 Sep 2008 22:33 - 314 of 331
Agreed an interesting read, it's a case of trying to look past all the short term gloom and doom. It might not feel like a great opportunity, but historically it is times like these that favours the brave.
The question is, which horse or horses to back ?
The question is, which horse or horses to back ?
2517GEORGE
- 25 Sep 2008 06:41
- 315 of 331
The Black One.
2517
2517
Clubman3509
- 25 Sep 2008 10:22
- 316 of 331
Could make a few quid in the next few days with the UK banks I feel the USA $700 billion loan will be approved with a few amendments in the next few days poss Monday.
justyi - 26 Sep 2008 14:20 - 317 of 331
HSBC has taken the axe to its workforce, sacking 1,100 investment banking staff including 500 in Britain.
Britain's biggest bank said the cuts were necessary because of the difficult market conditions and the poor economic outlook for 2009.
The bank had attempted to make the cull without any public statement, but word quickly got out as hundreds of employees in the bank's Canary Wharf headquarters in London's Docklands were told the grim news.
The sacked staff are thought to include high-paid investment bankers as well as more junior back-office and administrative staff in London. Europe and the US took the rest of the cuts.
The cull is in the global banking and markets division, which serves large global companies and investment clients. There is no effect on its high street operations.
Britain's financial services industry is dramatically rethinking its employment needs in the face of the financial crisis. Bradford & Bingley axed 370 jobs yesterday and tens of thousands more will go as a result of the takeover of HBOS by Lloyds TSB. Thousands of Lehman Brothers staff in the UK are still not sure about their future, although the takeover of some of its operations by Nomura is expected to save some jobs.
"It's regrettable and difficult for our people, but an exercise to reduce headcount [in the global banking and markets division] by 4 per cent is not a big story," an HSBC spokesman said, confirming the job losses and explaining the decision not to go public at first.
Redundancy terms vary, but length of service is a major determinant of compensation packages.
HSBC was one of the first banks to be clobbered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and has booked writedowns or losses of $18.7 billion since the start of 2007.
Britain's biggest bank said the cuts were necessary because of the difficult market conditions and the poor economic outlook for 2009.
The bank had attempted to make the cull without any public statement, but word quickly got out as hundreds of employees in the bank's Canary Wharf headquarters in London's Docklands were told the grim news.
The sacked staff are thought to include high-paid investment bankers as well as more junior back-office and administrative staff in London. Europe and the US took the rest of the cuts.
The cull is in the global banking and markets division, which serves large global companies and investment clients. There is no effect on its high street operations.
Britain's financial services industry is dramatically rethinking its employment needs in the face of the financial crisis. Bradford & Bingley axed 370 jobs yesterday and tens of thousands more will go as a result of the takeover of HBOS by Lloyds TSB. Thousands of Lehman Brothers staff in the UK are still not sure about their future, although the takeover of some of its operations by Nomura is expected to save some jobs.
"It's regrettable and difficult for our people, but an exercise to reduce headcount [in the global banking and markets division] by 4 per cent is not a big story," an HSBC spokesman said, confirming the job losses and explaining the decision not to go public at first.
Redundancy terms vary, but length of service is a major determinant of compensation packages.
HSBC was one of the first banks to be clobbered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and has booked writedowns or losses of $18.7 billion since the start of 2007.
justyi - 26 Sep 2008 14:25 - 318 of 331
A deal designed to rescue the banking system and save the world economy from catastrophe - but costing each American taxpayer $5,300 - dissolved into chaos last night after Republicans refused to endorse a $700 billion dollar package.
Talks are due to reopen later today after political high drama in Washington when talks broke into a verbal brawl in the Cabinet Room of the White House amid urgent warnings from the president and pleas from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who reportedly knelt before the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and appealed for her support.
I didnt know you were Catholic, Ms Pelosi said, a wry reference to Mr Paulsons kneeling, The New York Times reported. She went on: Its not me blowing this up, its the Republicans.
She was referring to the surprise announcement from the House Republican leader, John A. Boehner of Ohio, who told those gathered at the White House that his caucus could not support the plan. He pressed an alternative that involved a smaller role for the Government.
Some senior Democratic figures suspect opposition is being choreographed so that John McCain could be seen to deliver an eleventh-hour solution today. Others suggest that with fewer than a hundred House Republicans prepared to vote for the measure, Democrats may be left carrying the can for a deeply unpopular and high-risk deal.
Stock markets had breathed a sigh of relief when Congressional leaders heralded what would be the biggest bailout in history before a weekend deadline set by President Bush.
But within hours a series of senior Republicans had lined up to insist there was no agreement while a White House meeting between Barack Obama and Mr McCain, as well as key figures from Congress, broke up with all sides accepting more work was needed.
Both presidential candidates sat at opposite ends of a long conference table, with Mr Bush and Congressional leaders in between. Mr Obama was more vocal in his questioning of Mr Paulson that Mr McCain, who said little, according to US media reports.
Before the meeting broke up, Mr Bush issued a warning about the dire consequences if the Bill did not pass. "If money isn't loosened up, this sucker could go down," the President said, according to one report.
Richard Shelby, the senior Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, was first to emerge from the White House summit to announce "the agreement is obviously no agreement".
Talks are due to reopen later today after political high drama in Washington when talks broke into a verbal brawl in the Cabinet Room of the White House amid urgent warnings from the president and pleas from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who reportedly knelt before the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, and appealed for her support.
I didnt know you were Catholic, Ms Pelosi said, a wry reference to Mr Paulsons kneeling, The New York Times reported. She went on: Its not me blowing this up, its the Republicans.
She was referring to the surprise announcement from the House Republican leader, John A. Boehner of Ohio, who told those gathered at the White House that his caucus could not support the plan. He pressed an alternative that involved a smaller role for the Government.
Some senior Democratic figures suspect opposition is being choreographed so that John McCain could be seen to deliver an eleventh-hour solution today. Others suggest that with fewer than a hundred House Republicans prepared to vote for the measure, Democrats may be left carrying the can for a deeply unpopular and high-risk deal.
Stock markets had breathed a sigh of relief when Congressional leaders heralded what would be the biggest bailout in history before a weekend deadline set by President Bush.
But within hours a series of senior Republicans had lined up to insist there was no agreement while a White House meeting between Barack Obama and Mr McCain, as well as key figures from Congress, broke up with all sides accepting more work was needed.
Both presidential candidates sat at opposite ends of a long conference table, with Mr Bush and Congressional leaders in between. Mr Obama was more vocal in his questioning of Mr Paulson that Mr McCain, who said little, according to US media reports.
Before the meeting broke up, Mr Bush issued a warning about the dire consequences if the Bill did not pass. "If money isn't loosened up, this sucker could go down," the President said, according to one report.
Richard Shelby, the senior Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, was first to emerge from the White House summit to announce "the agreement is obviously no agreement".
BigTed
- 20 Dec 2008 13:51
- 319 of 331
So which sector will be the first to fly out of the traps...? what will next year bring? im thinking the economy obviously is going to worsen, but i reckon we are due a good bounce... Are the banks looking good for a revival now?
mitzy - 20 Dec 2008 14:01 - 320 of 331
I doubt it.
Falcothou - 20 Dec 2008 19:19 - 321 of 331
They have been under heavy pressure recently Ted whilst oils and miners have rallied considerably from lows, I hope so. Perhaps one factor that has been present with the shorting ban is that traders have been unwilling to close shorts as they know they cannot re-open them. This is particularly significant to those hedging their existing positions or operating a pairs trade e.g. Long HSBC/ short RBS.I certainly prefer to trade stocks long/ short for if the market tumbles and for example my lloyds long from 129 has been a bit sick and shorts with Wos/BHP have gone up instead of mirroring Lloyds.Bolton is bullish Banks in the New Year though he has been since last Summer!
Falcothou - 21 Dec 2008 18:41 - 322 of 331
I gather Barclay's are washing their hands of Swarfega this weekend, must have got their fingers dirty!
dealerdear - 21 Dec 2008 21:21 - 323 of 331
My understanding is that a SM recovery needs to be led by the sector that caused it's collapse ie banks. Until they start to recover, expect the SM to remain in the doldrums.
BigTed
- 05 Feb 2009 13:16
- 324 of 331
Funny i've just had to amend the header and remove B&B, AL. and now HBOS...
that was half of the charts...!
that was half of the charts...!
maggiebt4
- 05 Feb 2009 22:13
- 325 of 331
Fingers crossed you won't have to remove any more!
partridge
- 11 Feb 2009 17:44
- 326 of 331
Interesting watching the session with MPs committee this afternoon. Impressed with Daniels and Hester, so maybe the taxpayer has grounds for some cautious optimism, although still do not understand why Lloyds took on HBOS.
halifax - 11 Feb 2009 17:48 - 327 of 331
As a LTSB shareholder who does? Maybe he will become Lord Daniels in due course, although he may be an american?
Joe Say
- 14 Feb 2009 10:00
- 328 of 331
Was an investor in both HBOS and Lloyds at the end, so quite happy to see the 2 merged. In fact most money was routed the HBOS way as the pricing was so distorted
However what a stich up for the pure ex lloyds holders - transparently obvious as evidenced on virtually every share BB at the time
However what a stich up for the pure ex lloyds holders - transparently obvious as evidenced on virtually every share BB at the time
spitfire43 - 30 Apr 2009 10:08 - 329 of 331
Now I understand how we got into this mess......................
Linda is the proprietor of a bar in Cork . In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers - most of whom are unemployed alcoholics - to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans). Word gets around and as a result increasing numbers of customers flood into Linda's bar. Taking advantage of her customers' freedom from immediate payment constraints, Linda increases her prices for wine and beer, the most-consumed beverages. Her sales volume increases massively. A young and dynamic customer service consultant at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and increases Linda's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the alcoholics as collateral.
At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert bankers transform these customer assets into DRINKBONDS, ALKBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then traded on markets worldwide. No one really understands what these abbreviations mean and how the securities are guaranteed. Nevertheless, as their prices continuously climb, the securities become top-selling items. One day, although the prices are still climbing, a risk manager (subsequently of course fired due to his negativity) of the bank decides that slowly the time has come to demand payment of the debts incurred by the drinkers at Linda's bar. However they cannot pay back the debts. Linda cannot fulfil her loan obligations and claims bankruptcy. DRINKBOND and ALKBOND drop in price by 95 %. PUKEBOND performs better, stabilizing in price after dropping by 80 %. The suppliers of Linda's bar, having granted her generous payment due dates and having invested in the securities are faced with a new situation. Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor.
The bank is saved by the Government following dramatic round-the-clock consultations by leaders from the governing political parties (and vested interests). The funds required for this purpose are obtained by a tax levied on the non-drinkers
Linda is the proprietor of a bar in Cork . In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers - most of whom are unemployed alcoholics - to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans). Word gets around and as a result increasing numbers of customers flood into Linda's bar. Taking advantage of her customers' freedom from immediate payment constraints, Linda increases her prices for wine and beer, the most-consumed beverages. Her sales volume increases massively. A young and dynamic customer service consultant at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and increases Linda's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the alcoholics as collateral.
At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert bankers transform these customer assets into DRINKBONDS, ALKBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then traded on markets worldwide. No one really understands what these abbreviations mean and how the securities are guaranteed. Nevertheless, as their prices continuously climb, the securities become top-selling items. One day, although the prices are still climbing, a risk manager (subsequently of course fired due to his negativity) of the bank decides that slowly the time has come to demand payment of the debts incurred by the drinkers at Linda's bar. However they cannot pay back the debts. Linda cannot fulfil her loan obligations and claims bankruptcy. DRINKBOND and ALKBOND drop in price by 95 %. PUKEBOND performs better, stabilizing in price after dropping by 80 %. The suppliers of Linda's bar, having granted her generous payment due dates and having invested in the securities are faced with a new situation. Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor.
The bank is saved by the Government following dramatic round-the-clock consultations by leaders from the governing political parties (and vested interests). The funds required for this purpose are obtained by a tax levied on the non-drinkers
maggiebt4
- 30 Apr 2009 11:10
- 330 of 331
Now I understand Thanks Spitfire
kimoldfield
- 30 Apr 2009 11:50
- 331 of 331
Beautifully put!, why couldn't the 'experts' have seen what was happening?; perhaps they should have used your methodology Spitfire!
Spitfire for Chancellor of the Exchequer I say. Or PM. Or both. Drink anyone? :o)
Spitfire for Chancellor of the Exchequer I say. Or PM. Or both. Drink anyone? :o)
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