Recent problems with the new T5 Terminal at Heathrow have resulted in more problems for BA when will they recover their No1 position.

This a great short as I said on another thread we all remember the slow death of British Leyland. There are many similarities..... incompetent arrogant management,greedy trade unions, customers treated like dogs, ignore competition and innovation. We have had the incompetent Aussie and now we have the Irish "wee willie" who will the board appoint next perhaps to perfom the "coup de grace"?

Yes halifax I had forgot about the Aussie guy he didnt stay too long did he and whats the betting Walsh goes too in the next months.

Trouble is it could fall another 60p from here before it begins to climb again.
I've got a bad feeling about BAY.

What makes you think it can climb again? It looks like a merger or nationalisation like Northern Rock is their only way out if it is worth saving.

The performance of British Airways reminds me of the demise of British Leyland...... death by a thousand cuts. halifax quote.

Oil currently $117 and soon to reach $120 how are BA going to pay their workers.

I've got a bad feeling about airline stocks particularly BAY the problems facing it are many.

Best to hold oils/commodities in 2008 cant see BAY having a good year somehow.

Oil now $118 could go $120 in next days each $1 in extra fuel costs BAY 10 m lost profit.

Sub 200p today..?

Sell confirmed roday.

Sub 200p another example of British values heading for the bin.

Nice tick back upwards for those of us that HOLD,245.

well done capetown up 7% today.

Buying BA is possibly a viable alternative to shorting oil

Anything is possible.

why falling as to the rise in the morning.

when is it a BUY.

Not a buy in my opinion untill oil price has peaked,and stable,HOLD or wait to add.

Being hit hard with the recent stock sell-off.

Big cut backs to be anounced next week.

YES

Nice rise back up to 250,more to come .

All depends on oil.Some expecting retracement to moving average at $100! in which case BA would take off like a fighter jet not a lumbering jumbo. Might be worth watching oil at 2pm and 330pm to see market response to oil for a bay day trade and then sticking in a guaranteed stoploss on if there are gains pre uk close in case oil takes off pre close as it likes to do as shorts close

TRUE,
Also more to come when they announce cutbacks .
I have kept my longterm holding,but done really well trading in the 200/245 range,waiting to get back in now.

Quite a few technical people are looking at this as a bear market rally so certainly expect a big reversal when the chickens come home to the dow roost again but worth enjoying whilst it lasts

THE RED LINE IS BA.THE SHORT SHOWS BA GOES UP WHEN OIL GOES DOWN.

ITS NOT WORKING TODAY IS IT.

Ryan Air down 20% and Airlingus too.

ITS NOT LOOKING GOOD IS IT.

BA and Iberia announce merger plans,is this good news for either?

its looking good now

BAY is losing altitude, why is that?

Loosing altitude with every other stock,its obvious.

Found some news for u, capetown...

Shares in British Airways are down nearly 10 percent as investors fret over the twin threats of a fall in business class passengers caused by the financial crisis and a 1.5 billion pound pension deficit, analysts say.

'The shares may be affected by the financial meltdown -- around 50 percent of BA's corporate contracts are related to financial services, accountancy and law,' says Royal Bank of Scotland analyst Andrew Lobbenberg, although BA would not comment on its exposure to particular sectors.

BA said earlier its pension deficit at the end of March was 1.5 billion pounds ($2.74 billion), a snap-shot a spokesman says reflects 'weakness in the markets, the poor performance of equities and high interest rates'.

And shares in BA are up today,i wonder why.

Up??? Has not move.

No worries it WILL.

Oil price is pushing up again which would be bad news for BA.

Whats happening to BA now 200p.

This is in danger of falling to 100p.

WHEN DO I BUY.

When it goes to 120p

120p would be great.

170p is a new low...and I'm sure BA will go even lower. I agree 120p very possible

Amazing was 250p last month and 169p now.

Would not surprise me to lose another 20%.

People are tightening their belt and not going for holidays. Furthermore, BA fares are not competitive enough. So I think it will plummet in this economic weather.

Well its taken 6 months from April when I started this thread but the chart is now negative and BAY will continue to fall as the economy falters I will buy around 120p.

Yes, between 100p - 120p. It is 164p now

Perhaps the latest revenues published 40 mins ago are so bad the only way is up from here..!

Mitzy and hyleo, you guys are right from several months ago, IMO BA should go down to 120p next week.



British Airways warns of risks ahead
MoneyAM


British Airways said this afternoon that some risk now surrounds its full-year revenue forecasts as demand for long-haul premium traffic had worsened amid the global economic downturn. The carrier said its load factor slipped to 74% in the period.

The carrier said in a statement that long-haul premium traffic which includes the key London-New York corporate routes, had softened since the summer and that forward bookings had been hit by the downturn.

'Forward bookings are being affected by the increased anxiety in financial markets and by the uncertain economic outlook,' the company said in a statement.

'Revenue forecasts for the year carry some risk, although current good yields and the stronger dollar are broadly offsetting the volume impact,' it added.

BA said its target for the year to March 2009 was still to break even at the operating level.

The group said passenger traffic for September fell 4.8% year-on-year, including an 8.6% fall in premium flyers.

That delivered a load factor, a measure of how well it fills its planes, down 4.3 percentage points at 74%.

A profit warning if ever I saw one.

Its going to be a long hard winter.

120P SOON

Judging from the chart 99p soon.

Let's go for it then, mitzy.

Great,when and if it gets to 99 or probably less i will be filling my boots,long term its going to be a winner

With Easyjet and Ryanair around, i doubt it.

WHO?

CAPETOWN WHO IS BULLISH , DOWN , it must hurt.

Not at all,i got in way back at 99p,only bit that hurts is not selling on the highs,but very happy to hold and add along the way.

Touched 105p for a while .

Going sub 100p next week.

2003 at 99P

I agree sub 100p is a poss next week.

hlyeo,which week,so i can buy some more?

Sub 200p soon,!!!!

A good trading share with swings of 10% on days.

Be careful, BA will be giving a profit warning

MORE LIKE NO PROFIT.

BINGO!
Stunning performance,in a DIRE market!
Well done to holders and those that were savy enough to buy on the lows.

I agree capetown didnt they do well.!

Indeed they did.
longterm you can still double youre money from here.

What does our master shorter hyleo think?

175 here we come.

hyleo says it will go sub 100p!!!

I know,but the sun will no longer sustain life on earth one day too.

AWSOME!

200p fast approaching,not that i would add at this price.

nearly there!

i shorted today.
looks like a bear market rally may be over. could be wrong so my stop loss is now at cost. if i cant make a profit i sure dont want to make a loss.
regards
jkd

Good on you,well done for calling it right.

c
thanks, but she aint sung yet, lets wait and see.
regards
jkd

j
i am in for the longterm on this one and keep topping up as and when,
Not brave enough to short,the swings on BAY sp are good opportunities for both.

c
nice to talk to you. i also am in for the long term on this one. i have sold the march contract and will at some stage sell into june /sept and so on. that is assuming price continues to fall. it is an investment for me also in a bear market.
in a bull market i will do the reverse.
knowing when to change stance is not easy. sometimes it is good to stand aside.
good luck to you.
regards
jkd

jkd,likewise!

i am twitching to bank a nice profit here. resisted in taking it today.
instead i have placed a tight stop loss to buy back half of my holding at a nice profit. will continue to run the other half with stop loss at cost and maybe reinstate a further short at some stage on a possible rally.
regards
jkd

jkd,
Quite a dramatic fall to say the least,and well done,just seen on airwise.com website that an agreement with BA/IB may soon be announced,55/45 split,if this is true there may be a shortlived spike in the SP,check it out!.
cpt.

Looks a buy to me.

c
thanks, im now out of half of my position at a nice profit. i havn't checked out the website as i dont want to be influenced.i would expect a rally from this level but i could be wrong, it may turn into more than just a rally and keep going up, or it might not, it might just keep going down. i dont know so just going to sit tight for the time being.
good luck to both you and m
regards
jkd

Interim management statement

c
this is page 5. i have to confess i didnt do my homework on this thread before originally posting. i didnt read pages 1-4. maybe i should have done,maybe not, i dont like to be influenced. i hope you are not able to be either, lets stick to our guns. you are bullish, i am bearish, but i could be wrong. i am always happy to change my mind. the market will decide this for me by hitting my stop loss.
i hope you wont let me or anyone else influence you. let the market decide.
ps
i'm still bearish until my stop loss proves me wrong.
good luck to you
regards
jkd

jkd,
Longterm am very bullish on this stock,seems that the market recieved the dreadfull quartely results by marking them up slightly.
I do belive that if the merger falls through with Iberia we will see further lows,and there is bound to be strife internally as more cuts are being sought .

I continue to add as and when funds permitt,BA will survive.,having said that i became a buyer of BA after sept 11th and wish i had sold the lot @400p and got back in now.
good luck JKD.

c
this is now starting to look bullish to me, so i have now reinstated my short, with a tight stop loss. have meddled. looking now at break even on both shorts if possible,could be wrong.
regards and good luck to you.
jkd

ive been stopped out of both my shorts today. one at small loss the other at a small profit.
good luck and regards
jkd

jkd
Bad luck with your short,see the sp has risen well in percentage terms,it will fall like a stone if the IB merger fails,i pray this will not be the case.

thanks c
good luck with your holding i hope all goes well.
regards
jkd

Here's a snippet from the Blue Index blog

British Airways Weakness
April 27th, 2009

The prospect of falling victim to a further mutation of Avian Flu, namely Swine Flu sounds horrifc and conjurs up all sorts of nightmare imagery

However you feel about potentially profiting from this sort of crisis, British Airways (BAY) is potenially looking weak after negative press and pundit commentary over air travel. Blue Oar Securities Mark Brumby says, Without scare-mongering, it is worth pointing out the current outbreak of swine flu, which is centered on Mexico but which has spread to the US, is unlikely to do much to encourage travel. He adds In recent years the SARS and avian flu scares have depressed travel volumes materially. British Airways operates four flights a week to Mexico City, said this morning it is operating as normal.

Full article here
http://blog.blueindex.co.uk/2009/04/british-airways-weakness/

British Airways dives into the red
Business Financial Newswire

Flag carrier British Airways reported an operating loss of 220m, including restructuring costs of 78m, for the year to March.

The pretax loss was 401m, compared to a profit of 922m in the previous year, with fuel costs rising to nearly 3bn.

Revenue rose to 8.992bn (8.758bn - 2008) in the period.

Full year revenue was up 2.7% to just under 9bn (including 109m arising from a change in estimation basis for unused tickets). Excluding year on year exchange effects, underlying revenue was down 3.7%.

Passenger revenue rose 3.1% to 7.8bn, on capacity down 0.7%. Seat factor was down 2.1 points to 77%.

Yields, however, rose 6.7% as a result of currency impacts. At constant exchange, passenger yields were broadly flat.

The economic downturn led to a significant fall in global demand for premium travel, with IATA premium traffic down around 14% in the second half of the year. Premium traffic volume, which started to see some weakness back in August, has steadily declined in the second half in response to the economic slowdown.

Total traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, was down 3.4%. Total passengers carried fell by 4.3% to 33.1 million.

British Airways' CEO, Willie Walsh, said: 'Reduced passenger and cargo demand and high fuel prices last summer contributed to our 220m operating loss as our total fuel bill reached almost 3bn. The prolonged nature of the global downturn makes this the harshest trading environment we have ever faced and, with no immediate improvement visible, market conditions remain challenging. It is vital, therefore, that we remain absolutely committed to our plans to establish British Airways as a high-performing, market-focused, global premium airline.

'We are taking action to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis on our business. Next winter we will continue to reduce capacity by taking out 4% of flying compared to last year, parking up to 16 aircraft.

'We are taking action on non-fuel costs too. In addition to reducing external spend and not paying management bonuses, there are no base pay increases planned and we are offering staff the option of unpaid leave and temporary or permanent part time working. We are also in talks with our trade unions about pay and productivity changes. The results for the year include 78m of redundancy related costs. Since last summer, our overall manpower has fallen by more than 2,500.'

From the Blue Index blog

British Airways and the Perfect Storm
May 22nd, 2009

On April 27th I wrote about British Airways (BAY) weakness, see British Airways Weakness as regards the swine flu outbreak, but I suggested watching out for a sharp rebound in the event of positive news.

Shares did recover somewhat, but today that positive news seems a long way off, after the flagship carrier scrapped its dividend and reported a GBP358m full year net loss, against a GBP712m profit last time. Although revenues did improve by 2.7% to GBP8.76bn, BA was hit by last summers high fuel prices and a slump in passenger and cargo volumes, while net debt nearly doubled to GBP2.4bn against GBP1.3bn last time. CEO Willie Walsh said today the current conditions were the harshest we have ever faced, and added that with no immediate improvement visible, market conditions remain challenging. BA will cut further costs going forward, and merger talks with Spains Iberia, which have been going for almost a year, will still take several months to conclude.

Full transcript here
http://blog.blueindex.co.uk/2009/05/british-airways-and-the-perfect-storm/

Willie go or will he stay? When is BA going to find somebody big enough to run this business or is it the plan to dr(i)ve it into the ground?

Dear all on BAY thread...

I noted in the paper that BAY had made a cumulative 3bn pretax profit between 2002-2008 inclusive yet they only declared a dividend for last year. My question is this....Lets say tax at 33% leaves 2bn net profit, what did they spend it on?

thanks for any help

bonfield

Jetting off abroad this summer? Find out what youre entitled to if it all goes horribly wrong.


I have a friend who's been chasing a flight refund for several months now. She's come up against a barrage of re-directed calls, administrative incompetence and contradictory instructions.

In this case, the airline has actually acknowledged that the refund is due - so I can only imagine how difficult they'd make it they disputed her claim!

I've had some pretty dire experiences with delayed and cancelled flights (haven't we all?) and I'm always surprised at how little compensation customers are actually entitled to.

With many of us jetting off on holiday in the next few months, here's a guide to what you can claim if it all goes horribly wrong.

Baby steps
Under EU law, airlines are not obliged to give compensation for cancelled flights if they offer suitable alternative travel arrangements or if 'extraordinary circumstances' apply.

In the past, airlines have been accused of defining technical faults as extraordinary circumstances, to avoid having to shell out.

However, earlier this year, the European Court of Justice closed this loophole. In a new ruling, it deemed that airline passengers are now entitled to compensation when a flight is cancelled because of a technical fault.

The ruling applies to all EU-based airlines and to all airlines when operating a flight out of an EU country.

It's a baby step on the road to airlines treating customers more fairly - but at least it's one in the right direction.

Do you meet the following criteria?
The Denied Boarding Regulation (otherwise known as EC Regulation 261/2004) came into force at the beginning of 2005. In a nutshell, it offers an improved framework for people whose flights have been delayed or cancelled to claim compensation refunds and/or compensation.

For you (as the customer) to be legally protected by this regulation, the following criteria must apply:

You need to have a confirmed booking;
You need to have checked in on time;
You need to be departing from an EU airport, or from a non-EU airport and flying into an EU airport on an airline with its headquarters and main place of business within the EU.
Assuming that you meet all these criteria, here's what you're entitled to:

If your flight is delayed
Sadly, you probably won't be entitled to financial compensation. What you can claim depends on how long you're kept waiting, and how far you're travelling.

There are four main 'time + distance' categories defined:

A flight under 932 miles which is delayed for more than two hours;
A flight within the EU which is longer than 932 miles, and which is delayed by more than three hours;
A flight which isn't within the EU, which is between 932 and 2174 miles, and which is delayed by more than three hours;
Any other flight which is delayed by more than four hours.
If your delay falls into any of these categories, here's what you're entitled to:

Two free phone calls, faxes or e-mails;
Free meals and refreshments appropriate to the delay.
That's it. Not great, eh? And of course, 'appropriate to the delay' is a very subjective and foggy concept.

If you're delayed overnight, the airline must also put you up in hotel accommodation - and provide the transport for you to get there and back.

And finally, if you're delayed for more than five hours, you can decide not to travel at all, and get a refund. I think that's pretty poor consolation for a wasted day and no holiday, personally.

If your flight is cancelled
If your flight is cancelled after you've arrived at the airport, you should be offered a choice of the following:

A refund of the full cost of the flight, within seven days;
A re-routed journey to your final destination at the earliest opportunity;
A re-routed journey to your final destination at a later date convenient to you.
As you can imagine, that 'earliest opportunity' is another grey area and inevitably introduces another set of frustrating variables.

The compensation conundrum
Even if your flight is cancelled at the last minute, you're not necessarily entitled to compensation.

Simply put, you don't have a right to compensation if you're offered the chance to re-route on a flight that leaves no more than one hour before the original flight and is scheduled to arrive no more than two hours after the original flight.

And of course, there are those 'extraordinary circumstances' to contend with. You're not entitled to compensation if the airline can show that the cancellation was caused by 'extraordinary circumstances that could not have been avoided even if all reasonable measures have been taken'.

In plain English, this could mean anything from snow and political instability to terror alerts and strike action.

How do I make a claim?
If you are entitled to compensation, the specific amount will depend on the distance you were intending to travel, and the suitability of any alternative flight you're offered.

For a breakdown of the sums involved, have a look at this Which? Advice page on how much you can claim.

If you decide to pursue the matter, the how to make a claim section also suggests the action to take, and includes some useful template letters to get things started.

Unfortunately, I can't cover every eventuality in a single article. For example, slightly different rules apply to flights that have been overbooked - and flights that are cancelled more than seven days in advance.

BA in a tailspin "fighting for survival" according to "wee willie".Is this the beginning of the end of BA as we know it?

Halifax, I think BA will be a VERY STRONG SELL now at 136p.

i'm buying the company tomorrow then, lol

williw walsh sounds terrible on tv when he appears.......how come so many huge companies have wallies as chief executives etc

British Airways unions reject 'no pay' call

Have you bought BAY yet, marni, or is this just talk as usual?

i was poking fun at u but u r obviously too thick to see that.

bay need to get rid of that dreadful walsh character.

at least i buy shares unlike you.......you just steal shares hyleo but seem to be losing heavily on yell, smdr, rbs etc

It's good to see BA is on the verge of going BUST...



Could British Airways really go bust or not?


It was close to midnight when Willie Walsh finally emerged from Waterside, British Airways sprawling Heathrow headquarters. The airlines chief executive blinked in the lights of the waiting television crews, cleared his throat, and started to speak, his voice trembling.

I am sorry to say that despite our efforts today we have been unable to secure further funding from our banks. The cash drain we sustained as a result of the rolling programme of industrial action by cabin crew and ground staff means we can no longer continue as a going concern. British Airways has this evening been put into administration.

This may seem a far-fetched scenario, but not according to Walshs own doom-laden forecasts. BA is in trouble, with recession and the banking crisis banks accounted for nearly 40% of BAs business-class traffic pushing it to its worst-ever loss in the financial year that ended in March.

In recent weeks Walsh has issued dire warnings to staff, saying that almost all the business is unprofitable, the current awful trading situation will only get worse and that the company faces a fight for survival.

Last week he went farther, inviting all employees to work for a month without pay following the example set by himself and Keith Williams, the finance director. Staff have even been asked to drum up business by selling tickets to friends and family under the companys Hotline scheme, with special cheap fares being made available last week.

In an intranet message, the company told workers: Time is running out.

So is it really all over for BA? Is the worlds (former) favourite airline, Britains (former) national flag carrier and the (former) operator of Concorde really heading for the scrap-heap?

Seasoned airline watchers say not, accusing Walsh of having an ulterior motive. His apocalyptic missives, they say, are designed to soften up BAs unions during crucial talks about cost-cutting.

Walsh wants big concessions and an air of crisis will help. This month has brought voluntary pay cuts from pilots and engineers (pilots still have to vote on the plan), but the battle continues with ground staff and cabin crew. Walsh wants it sorted out by June 30. Industrial action this summer cannot be ruled out.

Walsh has another audience in mind, too, governments and regulators on both sides of the Atlantic. BA is trying to stitch together a merger with Iberia, the Spanish airline, and a strategic alliance with American Airlines. The latter, a deal that would leave BA and American free to collude on price and scheduling on Atlantic routes, faces a rough ride from competition watchdogs. Its fate is in the balance, with a decision expected in a few months.

BAs management would also like some breathing space from the British government on a swingeing rise in air passenger duty, which the airline claims leaves it at a competitive disadvantage to its rivals.

In my view, he is attempting to manage the expectations of staff. His view is that there is a serious structural shift here, not just a cyclical blip, said Douglas McNeil, transport analyst at Astaire Securities, the investment bank.

Other airline bosses say that if Walsh is crying wolf, he is taking a big risk. Either they are in that kind of trouble, and could go bust, or they are not, and are trying to pull the wool over peoples eyes. You dont ask staff to take a one-month pay holiday and risk having those kind of headlines unless its serious. If you do, its a very dangerous game, said Sir Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Atlantic, BAs biggest rival.

There may be more to this than a none-too-subtle attempt to frighten the awkward squad. Evidence can be found in the boom-to-bust nature of the airlines trading over the past two years.

BAs big strength has always been the Heathrow hub and its dominance of the lucrative business traffic across the Atlantic. In 2006-7, the final year of the financial-services boom, BA posted a record result. Corporate lawyers, merchant bankers and other masters of the universe thought nothing of paying 4,000 and more for a return trip to America, and the cash rolled in.

The airline announced a record profit of 922m , achieved an operating margin of 10% (something that had eluded BA managers for the previous two decades) and paid a dividend to shareholders for the first time since 2001.

Then the music stopped. The credit crunch and recession revealed the reliance on Heathrow and Atlantic business traffic to be not a strength, but a weakness. Business traffic dried up with companies, and in particular the big banks, slashing their travel budgets.

Companies are travelling less, and spending less per trip, said Amon Cohen, a business travel expert and contributing editor of Business Travel News. With so many empty seats, airlines are falling over themselves to offer discounts of as much as 70% in business class. Looking ahead, it does not get much brighter. A survey of British corporate travel buyers published by the Institute of Travel & Meetings last week found that three-quarters of them expected their spending to fall even farther over the next 12 months.

BAs results for the 2007-8 financial year showed how hard and fast the downturn had hit. The airline recorded a 401m loss 331m of which came in the final quarter of the year alone and scrapped the dividend.

BAs lifeblood premium traffic first and business class fell 17% in April, and by the same amount in May. Business-class fares across the Atlantic have dropped sharply.

In an intranet posting to staff last week, the airline said: Many First or Club passengers are on greatly discounted fares that the airline has introduced to keep people flying. Currently there are Club World offers at 1,100 for Heathrow to New York return and some are travelling free (2 for 1 offer).

Walshs problem is that BA is set up to make money at 4,000 for a return ticket to New York, not 1,100. He must now convince the airlines unions that the current drop in traffic is not just a temporary blip, but, as he puts it, a structural shift in the nature of our business.

Time is not on his side. The airlines cash balances are dropping, down from 1.8 billion last year to 1.3 billion at the end of March. This could be completely used up by the companys outgoings as currently scheduled 750m of capital spending, debt repayments of about 650m and interest charges of 150m.

There is little fat for Walsh to fall back on. Much of the companys property was sold during its last restructuring, the so-called Future Size and Shape programme put in place by Walshs predecessor, Sir Rod Eddington. The worldwide airline slump means it is hardly worth selling aircraft.

In other industries, companies under pressure are raising cash as fast as they can to tide them over the downturn, either increasing their bank borrowings or asking shareholders to back rights issues.

BAs board would probably opt for the latter, although analysts think there needs to be a successful resolution of the industrial talks before a fund-raising could go ahead. You need to have a recovery story to tell, and that means having big cost reductions in the bag, said one City source.

Walsh will move heaven and earth to preserve the airlines cash by cutting spending, but he might find himself on a slippery slope if the companys position deteriorates further made worse, perhaps, by industrial unrest, worsening swine flu or terrorist action.

Bankers point to the examples of Sabena, the Belgian airline, and Swissair, both of which came to grief in the slump that followed the September 11 terrorist attacks.

It can run away from you. There is a minimum cash level in BAs case I would say its about 500m after which the banks start to tighten the screws, suppliers get nervous, the public gets nervous and your need for funding balloons out of control, said one senior banker who worked on the restructuring of Swissair. IF BA were to get into serious trouble, a rescue would be far from straightforward. The board could seek a white knight, but there are two obstacles to a bid.

First, any buyer must be majority-owned and controlled by European nationals, a prerequisite of BAs traffic rights. This would probably rule out Arab or Asian sovereign wealth funds, which otherwise would be tempted by such a prestigious brand.

The second obstacle is more daunting. BA has a large pension liabilities. An actuarial review of its two defined-benefit schemes is under way, with a final figure on the size of the black hole expected in September. Some analysts think it could be as much as 3 billion, nearly double the companys 1.57 billion stock-market value.

Administration, which would allow the airline to shake off the pension fund, is also problematic, thanks to the industrys regulated nature.

For an airline, administration would normally mean immediate revocation of its operating licence and the loss of its runway slots BAs most precious assets.

Airlines cannot do business without an operating licence and an air operators certificate, which are granted in the UK by the Civil Aviation Authority, said Hugh ODonovan, barrister and leading aviation lawyer at Quadrant Chambers.

For the administration to be successful and the business to continue to trade, there must be financial arrangements in place to enable the operating licence and certificate to be maintained.

If they wanted to be sure of the business emerging intact, BAs board would need to have a buyer in place before the crunch came. In other words, BA would have to do a prepack administration, the much-criticised type of insolvency that has come into fashion among retailers since the recession bit.

That kind of crisis may still be a remote possibility. Professional investors certainly think so. Respected analysts believe BA will ride out the recession and, again thanks to its dominant position at Heathrow, be best-placed of all airlines to exploit a recovery.

Andrew Light at Citi rates the shares a buy, with a target price of 260p (the shares closed on Friday at 136p). Andrew Lobbenberg at Royal Bank of Scotland also has a buy recommendation, with a target price of 225p.

Walsh, however, who declined to speak to The Sunday Times this weekend, is still talking down the airlines prospects, with another round of meetings scheduled this week with cabin crew and ground staff.

And it is worth bearing in mind that this recession has already demolished organisations that were thought to be fixtures on the corporate landscape AIG, Lehman Brothers, Chrysler and General Motors.

Could BA join the list?

Branson is definitely right, that's why his business go from strength to strength.



Branson to ministers: let BA go bust


Sir Richard Branson has rubbed salt in British Airways wounds by declaring BA practically worthless, and urging the government to resist any attempts to bail it out.

Bransons comments will incense BA management, which this week will hold vital talks with cabin crew and ground staff over pay cuts, lay-offs and changes to working conditions aimed at saving 100m a year.

Willie Walsh, chief executive, who is trying to stem big losses and has warned that BA faces a fight for survival, wants a deal by June 30.

Branson, who founded Virgin Atlantic, BAs biggest commercial rival, said ministers should not be tempted to step in. It would not be in Britains interest, he said.

We and others are standing by ready to take on their routes and runway slots at Heathrow if they get into serious trouble. I thought the US governments bail-out of the car companies was a bad idea and its the same for BA.

Virgin had looked at a bid for BA, Branson said, but concluded that the companys liabilities in particular its pension deficit were too great.

Its not worth much anymore because of the liabilities. We were thinking about if the shares went under 100p (they closed on Friday at 136p), but it would be better to wait for its demise, he said.

Yesterday a BA spokesman said: This is fantasy. There are no talks with government, and there will be no talks. We have opposed state aid and our position has not changed.

The fraught relationship between the airlines has worsened. Keith Williams, BAs finance director, recently questioned Virgins claims of a profit, saying its figures went into Virgin accounting territory.

It emerged this weekend that Walsh has snubbed a request to give evidence to the House of Commons transport committee on July 1 the day after the deadline for the union talks. MPs are preparing a report on the future of aviation.

Given the extremely wide ranging nature of the subject of investigation which goes far beyond BA he has reluctantly declined, an airline spokesman said.

It's really good to see Walsh is sweating now... and even better when the market opens tomorrow morning.



BA's Walsh leads the way but few follow
Tom McGhie, Financial Mail
21 June 2009, 1:12pm


A rallying cry by Willie Walsh to his 40,000 troops at British Airways to work for free for up to four weeks has met with a less than enthusiastic response.

Only 200 have agreed to forgo pay - and unlike Walsh, who will give up a month's money, they will lose just one week's wages.

The disappointing response follows the announcement last month of a record 401m annual loss.

Insiders called Walsh's pleas a gimmick. 'It was never likely that they would follow Willie's lead,' said one.

Walsh will give up his July pay, worth 61,000. Chief financial officer Keith Williams, who earns 435,000 a year, will also give up a month's salary. The company refused to confirm whether any other directors, including chairman Martin Broughton, who earns 350,000, would follow.

But Walsh has had some success in negotiating with BA's engineers. About 3,000 are believed to have agreed a new pay structure, enabling the airline to make big savings. This follows a deal with 3,200 pilots to cut their pay by about 10% and accept 78 redundancies. In return, they will be given shares worth a total of 13m. Walsh is also trying to secure fresh terms over 4,000 voluntary redundancies.

NO CAPETOWN?? 99p soon.

I guess Capetown has jumped off BA long time ago.

No he has not,hes still here,
in for the longterm,so you just worry about yourself,happy to hold,as for virgin looking at ba,branson should buy back the 49%share of his company owned by singapore airlines who have been trying to sell for somtime before he looks at BA,but then he is full of gimmicks,BA will be around long after Walsh has gone.

Sir Richard will get their routes soon, they will go bankrupt unless British Government put money into them. I hope taxpayers cash will not be used to prop up this poor Company.

I hope they dont get taxpayers money too,i am confident they will not need it.
happy to hold.

Yet another british icon being destroyed by weak management and belligerent unions.

Maybe the Arabs will buy it at a knockdown price, just for the routes

BA may not last for long, let alone ''in for the longterm''.

10 YEAR CHART

British Airways workers have rejected management plans to cut costs through thousands of job losses and a two-year pay freeze.

A union spokesman said feelings among the airline workers were "running high" at a meeting held today of more than 2,000 employees, close to Heathrow airport. "They have sent a very clear message that they don't want us to make any further concessions that would lead to an assault on their terms and conditions," he said.

BA is struggling to cope with the downturn in air travel and in May reported losses of 401m.

It has already stirred controversy by asking staff to take unpaid leave, reduce hours or even work for nothing for up to a month to conserve cash, a request that unions branded "insulting".

Fresh talks with BA are due to be held on Wednesday.

There is no threat of strike action but disruption over the summer is a clear possibility. BA was hit by an unofficial strike in 2003 over terms and conditions and was grounded again in 2005 by a dispute over catering staff.

BA pilots reached a deal last month that will see them taking a 2.6% pay cut and save the airline 26m. The current talks cover other workers including cabin crew, baggage handlers and check-in staff. It is believed there are still wide differences between the management and unions.

The carrier had hoped to reach a deal by a self-imposed deadline of the end of last month, but has now called in the arbitration service Acas.

BA said last month that 7,000 staff had applied for voluntary pay cuts, including 800 who agreed to work for nothing for up to a month. BA chief executive, Willie Walsh, who has given up his pay for July, said it had been a "fantastic" response. Unions, though, have accused the airline's managers of putting workers under pressure to accept a cut, which the airline denies.

Unions have also noted that Walsh is far better placed to work without pay for a month his monthly earnings of 61,000 are twice the average annual salary for cabin crew.

gone up 10% in last week

and will continue to rise.

yes still is capetown.......do the opposite to what hyleo says after the event and you'll do well

up to over 140p now

.

marni.
I dont expect this to do too much overnight as there are many hurdles to get over,i do see 200p in the next six months.

BA slumps to 94m quarterly loss.

as a slightly risky longer term investment, BA is probably worth a flutter.
i have certainly got it on my own watch list with a view to (probably) buying in the near future

should have bought 2/3 days ago when i started monitoring and sp was only 130/132!

I traded this a couple of times during the winter between 120 and 140ish and then backed out when i read they were in more trouble than i thought they were,,maybe all the bad news is now factored in ..With all the recovery stocks to play i wouldn't think this one is going to fly (excuse the pun) ,having said that now it probably will.

i have bet against jimmy!

Shorted ???

no ... i bet against you, so am long

You havn't as i wouldnt short ,i just would be surprised to see this at 200p any time soon ,maybe it will trade in a range as it did in the winter, i think Easyjet would be a safer punt..

i don't need 200p to make a decent turn

Quite a rise since hyleo postod we would not last long.

just about every share hyleo shorts goes up .....lol.....he must be a liar though as any other person would be bankrupt now esp if they short.

funny that you we dont see the prat on this anymore as shares are going up!

200p on its way,and thats with turbulence!

170 would seem the obvious resistance ..... not what DMAs above chart shows, but mine show 25, 50 and 200

Well done it did it again ,i didn't fancy a punt this time what with the possible strikes etc ,can't really see what's pushed the price up ,,plus it's gone up faster this time..??

The fact that the sp was at an almost all time low,oversold,pilots have reached an agreement,fuel bill will be between 450 and 500 mil less than previous year,more liquidity raised without share dilution,and merger with IB still very much on the cards,load factors stabilising.Lets not forget BA would have made a profit were it not for those heafty fines they have had to pay,also open skies for sale another thorn in its side created by themselves.
if it gets through 170 as cynic suggests i can see 200p in the next week.

that wont please hyleo with his short? ah well, another failure to add to his list......in fact has he ever had a success

marni,he almost scared me into selling,then i checked out other posts and decided to stay put,having said that i was lucky and got in 911 and added ever since,i will be halving my stake @200p as dont want greed to to get in the way of awsome profits this time around.

dont let that idiot hyleo scare you or any other investor.

apologies to any idiots that may be offended by that comparison. lol

hyleo just wants western society to collapse.....he wanted ba to go bust just like other majors he wanted bust.

BA Traffic Climbs In July; Shares Rise 9.5%





By Jonathan Buck

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- British Airways PLC (BAY.LN) Wednesday reported passenger traffic in July edged up 1% year-on-year as capacity declined, resulting in a rise in the proportion of available seats filled.

The load factor, or the proportion of available seats filled with paying passengers, last month climbed 3.1 percentage points to 84.6%, from 81.5% in the same month a year ago.

The news was welcomed by investors. At 1335 GMT, BA's shares soared 14 pence, or 9.5%, to 165 pence, making it the second-biggest gainer in the London benchmark FTSE 100 index, which traded up 0.2%.

Traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, or RPKs, in July rose to 10.84 billion RPKs from 10.73 billion RPKs. Premium traffic dropped 11% on the year, while non-premium traffic eked out a 3.5% gain, BA said.

Capacity, measure in available seat kilometers, or ASKs, shrank 2.7% year-on-year to 12.82 billion ASKs from 13.17 billion ASKs.

The U.K. flag carrier previously has said that volumes and seat factors had stabilized during the first quarter and were expected to improve in the peak summer months.

Company Web site: www.britishairways.com

-By Jonathan Buck, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 8237; jonathan.buck@dowjones.com

marni,i got the impression he just hated BA neither,hate or love should never come into buying or selling a stock.

capetown

hyleo also just posts predictions on price which is stupid also......as he doesnt post any reason why or on fundamentals. i've lost count on the the number of shares that he's so badly wrong on

Lets see if we get past 170 and look forward to 200p

would not be surprised to see a general pullback today, and BA would certainly be a forerunner for that.
by the time i land at heathrow all will have been revealed

Happy landings Cynic,hope you remembered to bring a brolly for the homecoming!

sun shines on the righteous (and the Chosen!), so you will have noticed the warm sunny late afternoon!

I did Cynic,
BA have visited 170 both today and yesterday,so it will be interesting to see where we go,having said that they did drop back to 163 earler today.

but look to have closed right on the button .... for sure don't buy until this level is broken

TOP heavy on BA Cynic,been buying for years with average of 130p,have missed out on profit due to greed in the past.

if o'weight, then seriously consider banking some profits now you have the chance ...... london may open stronger on monday as Dow is currently powering ahead (+165), but nothing goes up (or down) indefinitely, and you'll then free up funds for other opportunities

Cynic,i am seriously thinking of offloading 5k shares and topping up @ gkp.

agree with first part but GKP is much more of an out-and-out gamble ...... 8k x GKP = 26,500 shares which is fine if they go up, but they could easily slip back to say 20p just on lack of interest until the next news .... and if that disappoints, then sp could dump in one move to 10/12p

Thats my concern,but i did get 10,ooo, gkp at 14p,i could afford to see a retrace if i do top up @ 29.50,having said that i am looking really hard to recoup amer losses,but still holding so not a loss unless i sell,i will give it pleanty of thought over the weekend,thx for your imput.Trust you are well rested after your holiday.

bad policy ..... of course amer is a loss and it is prob questionable whether or not you should still be holding them ..... should you hold 36,000 GKP? ..... not for me to answer, but i suspect your total pot/fund is relatively small, so to be heavily o'weight (i guess) in a real spiv stock sounds very much like trying to catch a guillotibne, never mind a falling knife

i have decided to take my profit (166.5) as markets are beginning to look a little soggy - not surprisingly - and sp clearly struglling to breach 170

Still here holding for now Cynic,did not venture into gkp.

i bought back in this afternoon at 170.4 .... don't care that i paid more than i sold at

Morning Cynic,are you looking for 200p or more?,thanks.

no idea

BAY has zipped away this morning to 184 ..... unfortunately, i cashed mine in (again) yesterday at 174 as needed to make a bit of room, albeit that the "new buys" have done even better

STILL holding here.

soon be knocking on 2.00........... HARD !

these will be 2.60 - 2.75 by end this year.

why? .... even in today's lunatic bull rush, BAY are at the bottom end of their day's trading range

You've done well with this ,still a bit scary though..

if you look back, you'll see i sold too early, but did not want to increase my margin requirements (CFDs) and wanted to put funds elsewhere ..... made a very respectable profit though, and that of course is the purpose of the exercise

you bought at 170.4 and sold at 174p cynic.........jes, i couldnt be arsed at that buying and selling for a few pence over a few days

have just checked my trading record, and see i initially bought at 140.2 on 31st july and sold at 166.5 on 11th august, and then bought back in .... would agree about the modest turn on the second batch, but as i said above, it was a case of selling what looked least likely to whizz away - wrongly here, but still did better with what i subsequently bought.

Depends on how many you buy I guess ;)

much more upside to come.
looking good.

shall keep a watchful eye

2 broke this morning.
small pullback to let the short-termers out with their profits.
this will move back over 2 again quickly.
chart looks good.
long term back to around 4.00 - 4.50 range.

Nearly there,
Next target is 250p,news should be out reagarding unions and management soon,as i believe that could take us to the 250 level or stay where we are for now.
dont forget IBERIA,and huge pension hole,i do not see 400p for a VERY long time.
Good luck.

spiked to 201 but now pulled back to 191

On its way back up.
will be over 2 in no time. This time it'll stay above.
good recovery play.

ITS A CHART THATS ALL, HISTORY.

nice rise yesterday and today

300p by FEB 2010. cheers cowjones

http://www.comparecarhire.co.uk/news/br...89219.html

The above is a link to an article claiming mr broughton is in germany talking to lufty re takeover of bmi.

XSTEFFX
you mean Feb 2010.


Knocked on the door of 2.10 today.
Still alot of upside to come.

lol, 222 and up

shorters will be forced to close their positions from the 1.85 region.

the MOTHER of all squeeze will happen and take this over 3.00.

zzzooooooooooooommmmm !

shorters keep burning !
LOL !

LooooooL 6% today wow

from where did you get the info that BAY was heavily shorted?

Caution ,lots of hurdles still to be overcome before 3,we still dont know if there is going to be a strike,i have not seen anywhere that an agreement has been reached,if it hits 3,i will sell as i dont want to be caught out again,sitting on a very nice paper profit just now.

HURDLE COULD BE THE FLU TOO.

hyleo said recently that this would go bust.....he was shorting heavily

Thats why he has dissapeared,i hope no one sold as a result of his ridiculous post.

hyleo has posted so many ridiculous posts on so many threads........i actually think its a secondary schoolkid who is trying to play the stockmarket.

anyway if he has placed shorts on smdr, bay, yell etc then he would be bankrupted by now

and hyleo has disappeared from whole of moneyam!! i wonder why, lol

cynic,
the financial sections of press covered the shorting story very well.
do some google searches and you will see articles mentioning that BA is heavily shorted stock.

shorters have been burning since the 1.20 level.

Well.... this aint going back below 2.00, big boys gonna pile in, and an rns confirming Iberia merger will send these rocketing up.

Where is the RNS re IBERIA,come on BA,get your finger out!.
We are hovering around the 200p mark as the city is probably bracing itself for strike and strife at BA.
I can see this retracing ,should we get news that ba and its staff have reached an agreement and news on IBERIA,a rapid move to 250.

bad numbers etc etc have been so heavily flagged in the press etc, and some institutional shorting too, that i wonder whether sp is now at or close to its nadir and that a sharp bounce will follow the results and trading update later this week

what is the strange green chart line that shows above? ...... have been into charts and can't duplicate

call on post 200 was pretty damn accurate, as was the prediction that bad numbers were already reckoned into sp ..... looks like pretty hard bear squeeze now underway .... shame i already held these from 6/8 weeks ago or might have been tempted to buy

Cynic - green line is 200 dma

It's actually the 200 EMA (exponential moving average)

16% of BA's shares are out on loan, the highest in the FTSE 100. Shorters unhappy for a change!

exponential meaning what exactly?

Harry - where are you getting the % short - advfn no longer carry it!

Here you go Cynic - Exponential Moving Average - clear as mud!

That's exactly what I thought Skinny! Sounds impressive though!

You've actually managed to find a much more intelligible explanation than I came across

16% figure came from the FT today, but was an isolated bit of information. I still haven't found a website that provides multi short positions.

do i sense a strong smell of burnt flesh in the air ...... bears burning their paws badly while running fast for cover by the looks of it

Unconfirmed rumour:
"Iberia's supervisory board meets today to decide on merger with BA, according to sources familiar with the situation. With no last minute hiccup, the merger will be announced in a few hours' time, or, much less likely, the termination of talks.
After 16 months of negotiations, the exchange ratio has been established at
45/55 IBLA:BAY. according to the same sources."

from Reuters at 11:49 today ....

The boards of British Airways and Spain's Iberia are holding separate board meetings to consider a merger to create the world's third largest airline by revenue, they said on Thursday.
"Further to recent market speculation, British Airways confirms that the British Airways and Iberia Boards are holding separate meetings today, 12 November, to consider a potential transaction," BA said in a statement.
"However, no decisions have been taken and, at this time, there can be no guarantee that a transaction will be forthcoming. A further announcement will be made in due course, if appropriate."
Iberia also said it had taken no decision on the potential deal and there was no guarantee a transaction would take place.

looks as though it's a done deal, even though not officially confirmed ...... deep fried shorters are today's tasty special!!

MADRID, Nov 12 (Reuters) 13:56 - Spanish airline Iberia's board has approved a merger with British Airways , El Pais reported on its website on Thursday.
Iberia chairman Antonio Vazquez will be chairman of the new company, whose headquarters will be in London, the newspaper said.
Iberia declined to comment on the report.

Someone on the FT site said "possibly time to short BAY based on 'Buy on rumour, sell on fact'.
The reply came back "if you want to sell the news on a confirmed merger, be my guest!"

BA+IBERIA= 1 LARGE DUD LOSSMAKING AIRLINE, this merger solves none of their problems, it merely delays the inevitable.

hello Happy Larry ..... does that mean you are shorting BAY? ..... a lot of what you write is good stuff, but sometimes, as here, you talk as big a load of codswallop as i do!

per the 5 year chart below, 240 would look to be the immediate short term obstacle, with 280 etc as and when or if sp gets that far

some more stuff via Reuters


Following are some key facts about the potential new carrier:
-- Aircraft: 408 aircraft (BA 244; Iberia 164*)
-- Destinations: 259 airports (BA 150; Iberia 109)
-- Passengers per year: 61.5 million (33 million, Iberia 28.5 million*)
-- Staff: 63,600 (BA 42,000; Iberia 21,600)

-- Turnover (2009E**): $21.65 billion (BA 8.9 bln stg; Iberia 4.6 bln eur)
-- Pretax profit (2009E**): BA 401 mln stg pretax loss; Iberia 228.8 mln euro loss)


RATIONALE
-- Greater financial muscle and more routes to compete with European giants Air France-KLM and Lufthansa
-- Cost savings and greater buying power on fuel, aircraft, IT and other products that analysts estimate is worth some 550 million euros a year through to 2015.
-- Very few overlapping routes. Iberia has the biggest share of the Europe-Latin America market, while BA is the leading airline on North Atlantic routes and has strong Europe-Asia connections

-- Ends BA's two-year chase for Iberia. Fulfils Iberia's long-time desire for consolidation

while the above by no means solves all the underlying problems, it goes a long way towards doing so, and that is before the inevitable consolidation of personnel etc and other significant savings through economy of scale

meanwhile, as the recesssion seems to be drawing to a close, there will be an increase in air traffic as the months pass - i.e. look 12 months hence

I don't really care about the outcome - but I've taken 10 points from these today.

Another classic disaster in the making.... bigger is not better.

no one said it was .... did you have a bad oyster at lunchtime?

And another +3 short.

i would have liked to have seen sp stay above 220, but never mind ..... i shall continue to hold for the time being and shall see what the press has to say ..... overall, i should think it will be quite positive, both for the merger itself and for air traffic outlook in general

m8 halifax has gone all huffy-puffy about BAY, but that is similarly true of TLW ..... not that all my faves come up smelling of roses by any means, but it's fun to tease the shoddy-maker

cynic sticks and stones etc. do try to act your assumed age.

don't be so dull even though i know many yorkshiremen find it difficult to be more cheery than dour at best .... anyway, i like being peter pan or being in second childhood - i don't really differentiate

thought you might decide to expound on the ancient craft of shoddy-making, but clearly not

BA has been badly managed since Lord King retired,we now have a CEO used to running a small Irish airline but over the past 4 years has proved incapable of solving the ever increasing problems. Do we really think a merger with a Spanish airline is going to solve these problems especially after the debacle with the opening of terminal 5 and the way the Spanish run BAA?

The solution is obvious, downsize the airline, focus on the high net worth business and leave the dross to Easyjet and Ryanair. The proposed merger will not solve the union problems and huge retrenchment will cost the merged company more than shareholders can afford when both airlines are loss making.

we shall see .... meanwhile, if sp rises merely because it's a full moon, i shall not care

btw, i would never ever fly Ryanair having seen the appalling way it treats its customers and does its very best to avoid and evade tackling problems they (the customers) may have - e.g. lost luggage and similar ..... that man (whatever his name) is a disgrace, and no doubt in due course all will come home to roost

cynic why should the Irish treat the British any other way?

the specific guy concerned - a friend of mine - is actually half Scottish and half Danish!
to get Ryanair to compensate for sending his golf clubs to Las Palmas instead of Prestwick, he ultimately had to take out a Small Claims action in Dublin ..... Ryanair then crumbled instantly

cynic and you don,t know his name?

can't be bothered to look it up

cynic you don't know the name of your friend?

cynic perhaps you are confused the founder of Ryanair is Christy Ryan, the current CEO is Michael O' Leary, less bullshit please!

i care not who heads up Ryanair or even that they're Irish of some hue; it's their total lack of scruples and business ethics which i find so contemptible

LOL !!!!!! I suspect Cheau Mouton something or other kicked in there! No doubt better than that in flight plonk!!!

LOL LOL LOL LOL

nah! only Cloudy Bay Sauvignon tonight ..... Mouton and smoked haddock don't work well together

cheap flight to tenerife now then lads, anybody up for a christmas piss up?? on cynic of course...

BRITISH AIRWAYS AND IBERIA AGREE MOU FOR PROPOSED MERGER OF EQUALS

British Airways' and Iberia's boards have today agreed a binding memorandum of understanding (MoU) setting out the basis for a proposed merger of the two companies to create a new, leading European airline group that recognises the principle of parity at board and management level.

The new airline group would have 419 aircraft and fly to 205 destinations. In 2008, British Airways and Iberia carried 62 million passengers and, in their last financial years, their joint revenues are approximately 15 billion.

The airlines believe there is a compelling strategic rationale for the transaction, which is expected to generate annual synergies of approximately 400 million, and benefit both companies' shareholders, customers and employees. The new group will combine the two companies' leading positions in the UK and Spain and enhance their strong presence in the international longhaul markets, while retaining the individual brands and current operations of each airline.

The merger is expected to be completed in late 2010.

the piss or the drinks?
just sold 50% at 225 which will do very nicely

reckon friend halifax should volunteer for the stocks, though i am sure we would all treat him kindly

BA merger faces failure over 2.6bn pensions debt

Iberia, the Spanish airline, could still walk away from a merger deal with British Airways (BA) to create Europes largest airline if the British flag carrier is unable to agree a deal with its pension trustees over how to fund its massive 2.6 billion pension deficit.

I'm short from 225

i think it's a very brave short indeed, unless you are going to be happy with just 5/10p ..... i would be quite surprised if this pension problem was not resolved in some way as it is surely cannot be in the trustees interests to scupper the deal.

that does not mean that BAY is now a BUY either!

now completely out ..... a useful profit overall, so no complaints

BA cabin crew begin vote on Christmas strike

British Airways' (BA) cabin crew will today begin a vote to decide whether to strike over Christmas as new working practices come into force.

The ballot closes on December 14 and, if staff vote in favour of industrial action, the first strike could start a week later on December 21, affecting vital Christmas traffic.

the strike will be but a short term nuisance even if it goes ahead.
technically more important would be if the pension fund blocked the merger deal, but there is no chance they will do it - it would be turkeys voting for christmas

with luck, the ballot will recommend strike action which should result in sp being whacked, and at that point i'll probably buy again

Just closed half my short @209 for +16.

quite right too, as i think it was pretty dangerous position ...... if sp comes back to 200 or a bit lower, i shall probably buy back in

CORRECT:Virgin:Requiring BA To Give Up Heathrow Slots Not Enough





("Virgin Atlantic: BA's Surrender Of Heathrow Slots Not Enough," published at 1237 GMT, incorrectly suggested that BA had offered to surrender takeoff and landing slots at London's Heathrow Airport. The correct version follows:)

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Virgin Atlantic Wednesday called on the European Commission and U.S. Department of Transportation to reject British Airways PLC's (BAY.LN) planned transatlantic alliance with AMR Corp.'s (AMR) American Airlines, saying any calls for BA to surrender slots at London's Heathrow Airport won't be enough to guarantee competition.

British Airways and American Airlines last year applied for antitrust immunity that would allow the two carriers to work more closely on scheduling and setting fares.

"Slot remedies alone could not reinstate an effective level of competition nor address the substantial negative effects which would arise from the proposed alliance," long-haul carrier Virgin Atlantic said in a submission opposing the immunity application. Requiring BA to relinquish takeoff and land slots is a measure that the commission could seek.

"We urge the European Commission to recognize that even extensive slot remedies on their own would not make this a suitable case for an individual exemption," it added.

I've just closed the rest of my "dangerous position" @205 +20 lol.

well done son!

Christmas strikes loom as BA hits new union turbulence

Two years after airline boss Willie Walsh agreed a deal with unions, winter disruption looks ever more likely.

This is a bit long, but well worth a read for investing in BAY med term:
Tim Marshall at Redburn, research note:

There is a clear road map for BA. We expect approval of anti-trust immunity with American Airlines and Iberia to be taken well, for investors to become more comfortable with Iberia merger synergies and for underlying improvement in fundamentals to lead to revenue recovery.

British Airways is seeing signs of improving trends in two key areas: premium traffic and the north Atlantic. The discipline of the US airlines on the Atlantic should continue with the schedules showing capacity down 14% in Q409. We assume the recovery in corporate travel spending continues into next year and against easy comparisons, revenues will look good. We forecast an operating profit in FY11.
Anti-trust immunity (ATI) would allow BA to co-ordinate transatlantic schedules and pricing with American Airlines and Iberia. Air France-KLM believes its ATI with Delta enhances revenue by 5%, so with 5bn in combined revenue with American Airlines alone, this could add 150m in revenue, or 47p per share, to BA. This implies no slots are divested, so we assume the value uplift is a more conservative 30p per share.

Our analysis of BA back to 1974 shows its ability to reach a 10% margin after each sharp downturn. Cost cutting has been key but this management is tackling some of the more fundamental barriers to a higher profitability. Our 250p price target assumes an underlying value for BA of 180p to which we have added 40p from Iberia and 30p from ATI with American Airlines. The underlying business trades on 13x our FY12 EPS estimate.

The bull case for British Airways is straightforward:

Costs: British Airways has shown itself very capable of cutting costs in the past, particularly through the Future Size and Shape programme post 9/11. This year, the initial target of 220m in non-fuel cost savings was surpassed at the H1 results with 275m savings already made. This is before further staff cost savings the company hopes will come from cabin crew and the other groups following the new terms and conditions in effect from November this year.

Revenue: we are currently at a low ebb in the cycle, which should be followed by increasing yields over the coming quarters. The aftermath of 9/11 and the Gulf War at the start of the century was followed by strong revenue growth, particularly driven by a strong UK economy and growth on the Transatlantic.
Merger with Iberia: the merger with Iberia was eventually agreed in November. The initial announcement suggested up to 400m in annual synergies, a third coming from revenue and the remainder from cost savings. Assuming a rather conservative 5x multiple on these synergies adds 40p+ in value to British Airways fair value.

Anti-trust immunity with American Airlines: the application to discuss pricing and scheduling of Transatlantic business is awaiting clearance by the various regulatory bodies. Attempts in 1998 and 2002 failed as the airlines were asked to give up slots at Heathrow deemed to be more valuable than the benefits from ATI. However, since then, Open Skies has opened access to Heathrow and offered hope that ATI will be allowed, as the SkyTeam and STAR Alliance members have. Combined BA/AA Transatlantic revenue is around 5bn. Assuming synergies are similar to the 5% of revenue AFKL suggested for its ATI with Delta, then BA could yield a 150m profit uplift; using the same multiple as Iberia, this would add another 47p in value to the shares.
Even without Iberia and ATI, history suggests BA can return to the 10% operating margin often visited but rarely surpassed. We think BA standalone could reach 10bn in revenue within five years. A 10% margin would yield 1bn in operating profit, c40p EPS. At 10x P/E (the markets preferred valuation method when earnings are positive) and adding the Iberia/ATI value results in a 510p or 150% upside.

sounds like more "pie in the sky"

Possibly. I can't temper it with a 'bear' note, as I haven't found one yet, so only one side of the story being aired.

Well I've taken another "dangerous" short this morning :-))

Closed +7

British Airways Agrees Pension Scheme Deficits With Trustees





LONDON -(Dow Jones)- British Airways PLC (BAY.LN), the U.K. airline, said Monday it has reached provisional agreement on the actuarial basis to calculate pension deficits with the Airways Pension Scheme, or APS, and the New Airways Pension Scheme, or NAPS, and on the basis of this agreement, the deficit in APS would be GBP1.0 billion and the deficit in NAPS would be GBP2.7 billion as at March 31, 2009.

MAIN FACTS:

-Airline and trustees will work together to develop a recovery plan, a process which will involve the company consulting with employees and their trade unions.

-Regulatory deadline for the valuation process, including agreement on future contributions required and the recovery plan, is June 30, 2010.

-Both the valuation and the recovery plan are subject to review and approval by the Pensions Regulator.

-Regulator's provisional view is that the technical provisions may be materially below a level it feels appropriate.

-British Airways has asked Roger Maynard to step down as the chairman of trustees of the boards of APS and NAPS to focus on his Iberia role.

-A replacement will be appointed shortly.

BA faces increase on 3.7bn pension deficit

British Airways (BA), which will today learn if cabin crew will strike over Christmas, may be forced to fund a larger pension deficit than the 3.7 billion shortfall it revealed this morning in a development which could scupper its merger with Spain's Iberia.

The airline detailed a 3.7 billion deficit, comprising a 1 billion and 2.7 billion shortfall in its two main pension schemes, which is an increase from the 2.1 billion deficit revealed in the airline's last review of its retirement funds and more than the value of the entire company which has a market capitalisation of 2.3 billion.

British Airways Cabin Crew Vote To Strike - Union


LONDON -(Dow Jones)- British Airways PLC's (BAY.LN) cabin crew Monday voted to strike, unions said, threatening disruption for travelers over the Christmas holiday period.

The carrier and the unions have agreed to continue negotiations.

-By Jonathan Buck, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9237; jonathan.buck@dowjones.com

UPDATE: British Airways Cabin Crew Vote To Strike





(Adds detail and comment.)

By Kaveri Niththyananthan

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- British Airways PLC's (BAY.LN) cabin crew Monday voted to strike over the busy Christmas period, threatening massive disruption for hundreds of thousands of passengers.

A 12-day strike is due to begin Dec. 22, trade union Unite said, after 92.5% of workers who voted in a ballot supported industrial action. The union said it remained open to negotiations, but only if BA reverses changes to working practices that it already has imposed.

It said it didn't rule out further action.

British Airways in a statement said it was extremely disappointed by the decision, which it said shows a lack of concern for its customers, its business and other employees.

"A 12-day strike would be completely unjustified and a huge over-reaction to the modest changes we have announced for cabin crew which are intended to help us recover from record financial losses," it said.

If a strike goes ahead, it will be the first BA has had since Chief Executive Willie Walsh took charge in May 2005.

The carrier and unions have clashed over BA's plans to restructure and adjust working practices in an effort to return the company to profitability after posting a GBP292 million loss for the six months to Sept. 30.

Strikes are dangerous for airlines because not only are disruptions expensive but they can put off passengers from flying with strike-hit carriers again.

Airlines globally have been badly hit by the economic downturn as passengers traded down to cheaper economy tickets or refrained from travel altogether. Most airlines have swung to a loss this year, while others have gone out of business. The International Air Transport Association forecasts the industry will make an $11 billion loss this year.

BA in particular has been hard hit because of its dependence on lucrative premium traffic across the Atlantic, which has fallen in the wake of the financial crisis and economic downturn. Analysts expect BA to make a GBP800 million pretax loss for the fiscal year ending March 2010, compared with a loss of GBP401 million in the previous fiscal year.

After making no progress on talks that dragged on for nine months, BA introduced cabin crew changes Nov. 16 at London's Heathrow Airport--reducing onboard personnel to 14 from 15--after the U.K. High Court dismissed an injunction application by unions. Instead, the two sides agreed to meet in court Feb. 1 to decide whether the changes are contractual or not.

BA insists changes allow the airline to accept more than 1,000 voluntary redundancies among cabin crew and allow 3,000 to shift to part-time work. BA employs 13,500 cabin crew, of whom 11,500 work at Heathrow. Approximately 9,000 work on long-haul routes. It aims to shed 4,900 positions during the fiscal year ending March 31, of which 3,700 will be in the U.K. BA employs about 38,700 workers.

"This is a double disaster for British Airways," said Bob Atkinson, travel expert from travelsupermarket.com. "Its customers are now going to be significantly affected and the airline will take a financial hit from the action."

At 1527 GMT, BA's shares traded down a penny, or 0.5%, at 200 pence, while the benchmark FTSE 100 index traded up 1%.

Where is the bottom for the sp?

Well I'm short again!

skinny what is your target sp?

180 would be nice, but the chart is a bit accademic with the strike looming.

Halifaxhave you heard of the Gorges du Verdon.I think the clues are there?

Just closed my short +5

A strike by British Airways cabin crew planned for Christmas has been declared illegal in a High Court ruling.

The court agreed with BA that the cabin crew's union, Unite, had not correctly balloted its members on the strike action.

BA complained that staff in the process of leaving the company had been balloted, breaching industrial relations law.

The 12-day strike was due to begin on 22 December.

Skinnywill this not make the working relationship a lot worse at BA?were there is a willtheres a wayand all that.. just a thought

tabbie - probably yes - but it was a short term punt - I'll be back :-)

BA strike 'gets strong backing'

British Airways passengers face fresh strikes after cabin crew gave "substantial" backing in a ballot for industrial action, the BBC has learnt.

About 12,000 members of the Unite union have been voting on whether to take action in a row over jobs, pay and working conditions.

and as with the miners, they'll get their just deserts in due course
willy walsh may not be the greatest man-manager, but in this instance he's absolutely right ..... BA staff get best pay and conditions of anyone, and in today's climate, this is unaffordable ..... that BA are well renamed as Bloody Awful is irrelevant

good rise

British Airways strike dates to be considered by union

Union leaders representing British Airways cabin crew will meet later to decide whether to call strike dates.

It comes after talks between BA and the Unite union aimed at averting strike action broke down without agreement.

if sp drops back quite sharply, then worth considering a buy.

on a different level, while i have some sympathy with the staff for having their cushy contracts brought back to reality, my vote goes to willy walsh for standing up to the unions and forcing a bit of reality onto them

my vote goes to willy walsh for standing up to the unions and forcing a bit of reality onto them

Cynicgood old Willie paid himself a 6% pay risetaking his salary to mland could also gain 1.1 million in deferred share bonusesas BA lost 400 ml last yearit would be reasonable to conclude that negotiating pay cuts for his staff is a little perplexing for themmost will hope that little Willy ends up a stiff?

British Airways union announces strike dates

The union representing British Airways cabin crew has said its members will go on strike for three days from 20 March and for four days from 27 March.

frankly, i don't care how much WW pays himself ..... to my mind, BA staff are significantly overpaid relative to the rest of the industry, and while i too would squawk loudly if my pay was cut, there is the old saying that if you don't like it, then vote with your feet ...... going on strike doesn't count!

Cynicyou are one funny git!

Interesting scenario taking place at BA.Gordon Brown has condemned the strikethe strike is being led by the union that bankrolls LabourBA future was already uncertain after its recant huge losesand Willie Walsh is as confident as a man holding a Royal Flush while losing 40% passengers to other Airlinessomething stinksmethinks?could Brown have met Willy secretly in the toiletand told him those Jumbos are too big to fail?Unite has offered to suspend the strikes due to begin on Saturday if BA resubmits a peace offerWilly has declined to reinstate the offerwhy?

because, quite rightly, ww sees the unions as a menace to putting the airline on a profitable footing .... ww's gamble is that BA will recoup any passenger losses once this union has been kicked hard enough in the balls and the staff accept a realistic pay structure.

Cynicthat is a massive gambleand one that he will lose imono-frills airlines are gaining/tempting passengersthey are now going to be given themUnite has offered to suspend the strikes on BAs original termsbasically he can have a 100% of his planes in the airwithout giving an inch of his original offerUnion negotiations can be ongoingthey might even go away quietly?he was offered the chance and refused it!!!

I am not backing the unionbut as a leaderwould it not have been a good idea for WW to forgo his 6% wage increaseand not except the 1.1 million in deferred share bonusesrespected leaders lead!!!.I can see Colonel H on his way to capture Goose Greentelling his regimentwe have got to charge this Argentine-occupied settlementdamn risky business this for an Old Etonian like myselfso I will go back to the Hotel for a Jacuzzirest of you good men carry onRule Britannia and all that
let me know before we greet the Governormust look the parttoddle pip..
Personally I would saya superior man is modest in his speechbut exceeds in his actions.I think Willy has got it the wrong way roundmore of a Wonker?

we shall see ..... clearly the market agrees with his stance

wow,,,nice rise 245

BA Concludes Union Talks On Defined Benefit Pension Schemes
LONDON (Dow Jones)

British Airways PLC (BAY.LN) Tuesday concluded talks with its joint trade unions on the future benefits of its defined pension schemes, marking a step toward tackling its GBP3.7 billion pension deficit before needing to present a recovery plan to the regulator by June 30.

The U.K. airline said its main proposal will see New Airways Pension Scheme members opting to pay an extra 4.5% to maintain their existing pension benefits, adding that there will be a mechanism in place to offset the impact of contributions. Alternatively, members can receive lower future benefits.

The joint trade unions are British Airline Pilots' Association, GMB and Unite.

"This is an important step forward in the process of addressing the pension deficits which the trade unions will be recommending to their members," BA said. "The new benefit structure will be proposed to the trustees and form part of the negotiations toward a recovery plan that is expected to be presented to the pensions regulator by June 30."

It said the proposals are intended to avoid the closure of the pension schemes and maintain BA's contributions at GBP330 million a year.

I notice the share price started to spike an hour before the RNS.

i dithered and didn't this morning .... never mind

BA resuming normal flights service after strike

British Airways is trying to resume normal services following the end of a three-day strike by cabin crew.

The airline says it has reinstated a number of flights over the next four days that were previously cancelled.

BA is reviewing its schedule for a strike between 27 and 30 March which is again about pay and condition changes.

No further talks to resolve the dispute are planned ahead of the next walkout, but unions have challenged BA chief Willie Walsh to return to negotiations.

the unions will be well stuffed at the end of the day - and a damned good job too!
shame i sold out of these at about 200, but you can't hold/win 'em all

Broker note today from Olivetree Securities:
"BA announced that the estimated impact from the strike is 7m a day but earnings expectations to 31st March 2010 will remain unchanged. This is due to a more limited disruption (over the 1st 2 days, the airline operated 78% of its longhaul flights and 50% of its shorthaul flights). Also, having analyzed the stoxx 600, we founds BAY in the top 10 of biggest decrease in weekly short base last week. Its short base has come down by 0.6% last week. It still has 31.75% of shares outstanding on loan and above 95% of the lending pool is actually being borrowed. There are c44days to cover.
COMMENT Guidance being unchanged despite the strike is encouraging. We continue to believe that BAY has a high risk of short squeeze as the positive catalysts unfold (merger with Iberia, JV with AA, pension deficit agreement, traffic pick up and end of strike). We stay long the stock."

Surprised no-one has commented - 2nd day of no UK-flights, due to the ash in the upper atmosphere ( from Iceland's volcano - huh!).
What will this do to BAY's position, presumably Airport Taxes will be saved, but then the passengers will go by rail, if they can. Some believe this ash may hang about for some while, maybe over 1-year, should the seismics get worse.

Add today's news that US-Goldman Sachs (Wall Street), is to be prosecuted for fraud (DYOR). . . . . . . . and we are staring at major changes in the City of London . . . . plus the Election (sush!_).

....Crikey....what next?

what it means is that those living near a flight path will get a good nights sleep for a change!

that has been so for the last few days and will continue until at least monday

Short the crap out of RYA (Ryanair) imo ...

All of them ....

Looks like a good short...along with any of the northern european operators.....I never buy these stocks...too unreliable....

Mind the gap!

Willie now has a volcano to blamehe is so unlucky after it lay dormant for almost 200 yearsand you think it would put itself out in Iceland?those naughty union people must not laugh
You have to have balls to hold these?be surprised to see it hold 2 this week

from reading further reports, i suspect that an mo will be found whereby the airlines can operate genuinely safely, but how quickly that can be implemented remains to be seen .... don't forget, it is economically vital that some sort of solution is found, as the problem has worldwide implications

BA says Icelandic volcano costing 15m- 20m a day
Business Financial Newswire
British Airways estimates that the lost passenger and freight revenue together with the costs incurred on supporting passengers as a result of the Icelandic volanic eruption is approximately 15-20m a day.

The company says it has significant funding available to it to sustain a considerable period of closure of the UK's airspace.

At the start of the flying restrictions on April 14, 2010 it had more than 1.7bn cash and more than 400m available credit lines which it can draw on if necessary.

Chief Executive Willie Walsh adds that British Airways is one of European airlines to have asked the EU and national governments for financial compensation for the closure of airspace.

He says there is a precedent for this to happen as compensation was paid after the closure of US airspace following the terrorist events of 9/11 and clearly the impact of the current situation is more considerable.

Walsh says: "We welcome the EU's initiative to address the economic consequences of the airspace closure on the air travel industry and the wider European economy.

"We are also in touch with the UK government which has set up a group to work on this issue as it recognises the impact on airlines and the contribution that aviation makes to the British economy."

So BA reckon the volcano is costing them 15ml + a daythey might have 1.7bn cashbut a couple of months could make a mighty hole in that
I wonder if the union will see their bargaining position could be a great deal strongeraccording to an expert volcanologist the eruption continues with its current explosive vigour. So long as an ash column rises nearly 10km high, it will be problematic. The volcano could continue erupting for months according to scientists?.Willie Walsh denied trying to brake the union Unite.I expect Unite will now deny trying to brake him at a latter dateI know who looks stronger now!down 10.5p and still falling.thats what you get for being an arrogant sh*t!.

disagree ..... like him or not WW is absolutely right in this instance ..... BA staff seriously o'paid compared to all other airlines

Cynic and so is Willie Walsh.the man is a sh*this uncompromising leadership does not include personal participation to help the companysome of his achievements lol :- British Airways has been fined about 270m after it admitted collusion in fixing the prices of fuel surcharges.British Airways has plunged to a record pre-tax loss of 292mWillie Walsh warned BA's 38,690 staff that the airline's worst first half results since privatisationBA said it intends to cut a further 3,000 jobs over the next six months Willie Walsh in BA's annual report show his 700,000 basic salary will increase to 735,000 next month and could add a bonus of over 1millionfor Slashing BA to short-term profit giving him imaginary success force your staff with redundancy threats and whose workloads you have doubled and salaries you have frozenUsher in new low-paid poorly skilled staff who have no respect for the company down goes quality down goes the reputation... up go the complaints the birth of another rubbish companyits all there Cynicand he has done it before

i take it you are current or former BA employee

CynicI get a nose bleed within ten mile of an airportI am scared of planesand have never flownluckily Im driving to the SOF beginning of Maythe channel tunnel hopefullywill be free of ash

Willie Walsh went to a school that taught him to take what he can getwhile he can get itand that is the limit of his educationI can talk?

where in SoF? .... i am a fan of provence and have taken a villa in Roussillon (near Gordes) ..... usually take on in Maussanne

La Napoulewhich is about 3-4 miles along the coast from Canneswe have stayed at Mouginsand Theoule-Sur-Mar beforejust the most beautiful places in the Worldand a nice race trackHippodrome at Cagnes-sur-Mer I didnt think you like that coast Cynichad this conversation with you beforeI believe?we love the coastal drive from La Lavandu to Menton just mind blowing

mougins is just about ok, but doesn't do much for me, but cannes is vile - like blackpool on a bad day and its much-hyped covered market a load of rubbish ..... from cagnes and east towards italy becomes much nicer - villefranche is lovely for lunch, even if very touristy

Cynicwe have French friends that enjoy their food same as uswe mix genteel with the occasional partyCannes is fantastic in the eveningespecially during the festival.but does have a MacDonalds and many crass novelty shopsas well as very many expensive and exclusive shopsyou pick your time and placeI do know a place that you would lovewon village of the year a least oncestill in Provence.Bormes-Les-Mimoses...high upit is like walking round a kaleidoscope of colourwith Bougainvillea cascading everywhere who gives a sh*t about Willie Walsh!

scarcely provence that place! .... surely more alpes maritime, but as you say, it's up in the hills and certainly once you get away from the coastal drag, it really is lovely .... good walking up there too by the looks of it

Cynicit is Provencethe spelling is Bormes-Les-MimosasWestern end of the Massif des Maures.. high up but fairly close to the coast

Hopes rise of easing Europe flight chaos

Airspace in Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England is due to reopen on Tuesday after days of travel chaos caused by a volcanic ash cloud.

tabby - i know exactly where it is; just surprised that was classed as provence - very pedantic of me!

BA strike: Ban lifted by High Court

Fresh BA strikes look set to go ahead after a panel of senior judges, including the Lord Chief Justice, overturned a ban on industrial action.

BA posts record 531m loss


British Airways woes continue as the strike-bound airline has posted a record loss before tax of 531m for the year to 31 March 2010 ( 2009 Loss 401m).

Revenue was down 1 billion to 7,994m (2009: 8,992m) and although fuel costs were 597m lower and other operating costs were down 390m, this was a second consecutive year of record losses.

Group revenue in Q 4 was down 4.7 per cent to just under 1.9bn with operating costs down 11.4 per cent to 2bn. This resulted in an operating loss for the quarter of 145m, an improvement of 164m from quarter 4 in the previous year.

I guess Derek is on twitter :-)

British Airways, Unite Enter Latest Round Of Talks
By Kaveri Niththyananthan

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)

British Airways PLC (BAY.LN) and Unite, the union representing cabin crew, resumed talks Friday in their latest attempt to come to an agreement and end strikes that have hit the U.K. airline.

Derek Simpson, Unite's joint general secretary will be negotiating on behalf of cabin crew but BA declined to comment on whether its Chief Executive Officer Willie Walsh would be taking part.

Discussions are taking place at a secret location to avoid a repeat of last weekend's events, when protesters stormed a building and forced both sides to shelve talks.

BA and Unite have been in dispute for 15 months over changes to working practices and tensions flared recently after the carrier removed travel perks for those cabin crew who joined the picket lines. Cabin crew Friday entered the final day of the first of three planned five-day stoppages.

had an interesting chat with the cabin steward on my last flight ...... inter alia, though he would not strike, he knew that it was quite possible that he would be personally targetted (at home) for abuse ..... he also said that though staff did not have to join the union, it was quite difficult not to, not least because when you join BA there are swathes of paper to be signed, and in this instance, (i'ld guess) you probably have to actively opt out

bet he was queer as well want he :-)

I thought Cameron and his gang were going to sort this little problem out.

Where is this strong government going?

Why should Cameron interfere in the running of a private sector company, does he want to make a fool of himself like Obama has by interferring with insulting remarks about BP and its management.

British Airways Gets EU Approval For Transatlantic Joint Business

Today : Wednesday 14 July 2010
British Airways PLC (BAY.LN) said Wednesday it along with American Airlines and Iberia have received final regulatory approval from the European Commission Wednesday to enter into a joint business agreement on transatlantic flights.

MAIN FACTS:

-The airlines anticipate that they will receive the final decision on transatlantic anti-trust immunity from the U.S. Department of Transportation shortly.

-All the three airlines have agreed to make available Heathrow slot pairs for their competitors to use on services to the U.S.; The slot commitments provide a further guarantee that there will be no possible loss of competition as a result of the joint business.

-The slots will be made available if competitor airlines are unable to acquire them through the normal process; The London-New York slots will only have to be made available if the number of services on the route drops below the currently announced levels.

-The airlines plan to launch the transatlantic joint business this autumn.

Unite plans to take BA to court over travel concessions

The Unite union says it is planning legal action against British Airways over the removal of travel concessions from cabin crew who went on strike.

Unite, which represents 11,000 cabin crew at the airline, said the management's action was a breach of European Human rights legislation.

It also believes the concessions were withdrawn without proper disciplinary procedures being followed.

The move follows the union's rejection last week of BA's "final" offer.

BA said it had acted properly in withdrawing the benefit.

"Staff travel is a non-contractual perk that the company can withdraw at its discretion," the firm said in a statement.

Interim Results.

Period highlights:



Profit before tax of 158 million (2009: loss of 292 million)

Revenue up 345 million due to improved yields

Costs down 1.5 per cent

Operating profit of 298 million (2009: loss of 111 million)

Quarter 2 operating profit of 370 million (2009: loss of 17 million)

Shares will de-list on Friday January 21st and shares in the new IAG (International Airline Group) starting trading in London and Madrid on 24th Jan (Monday). The total share count will increase from 1.1527bn BA shares currently (1.3389bn fully-diluted to account for existing convertible) to c.1.8559bn IAG shares (2.0411bn fully-diluted) based on the share exchange ratio and the cancellation of existing cross-holdings in each other. Market cap will therefore increase from 3.3bn at the current share price of 2.86 to 5.3bn, an increase of c.60%.
This will have an impact on IAGs weighting oin the FTSE 100 and the FTSE All Share. We expect BA (IAG) weighting would increase by 13bps (FTSE 100) and 11bps (FTSE All Share) triggering a total of approx 40mm shares to be bought passively, 4.5x its current ADV, or 6.4x the 20 day ADV.
As IAG will be listed in Madrid it is likely IBEX will keep the stock in its index so we could see additional buy of 11.4m of BAs shares from IBEX passive trackers.

Broker comment:
We still have over a week before the event, but British Airways are to have an indexing upweight in the FTSE100, post the merger with Iberia, when they become Intl Consolidated Airlines (IAG).

Timetable of events:
Friday 21st Jan 2011 - Brit Airways & Iberia suspended from trading for entire day.

Monday 24th Jan 2011 (mkt open) - Brit Airways will be replaced by IAG on a 1 for 1 basis in the FTSE100.

Monday 24th Jan 2011 (mkt close) - IAG's weighting will increase to reflect the new shs. BA's weighting within the all share rises to 29bp's from 17bp's. We think this equates to between 50mln & 70mln shs to be purchased in and around the event.