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The Traders Thread - Friday 18th April (TRAD)     

Greystone - 17 Apr 2008 21:09

Greystone - 17 Apr 2008 21:10 - 2 of 55

Hello traders!

In the US tonight, the Dow was up just 1.22 points at 12,620.49, while the S&P500
was up 0.85 at 1,365.56 and the Nasdaq Composite down 8.28 points at 2,341.83.

See you in the morning with the latest....

G.

Kyoto - 18 Apr 2008 02:32 - 3 of 55

Morning all. Market reports:

Telegraph
The Times
The Times (Need to know)
The Independent
The Guardian
This is Money

Royal Bank of Scotland is preparing to launch a rights issue of between 5bn and 12bn in a move that will raise questions about the future of the group's chief executive Sir Fred Goodwin.
Royal Bank of Scotland calls on investors for cash in rights issue

Royal Bank of Scotland is preparing to raise up to 12 billion through a rights issue to shore up its balance sheet. RBS is expected to announce the fundraising in a trading statement that is due to coincide with its annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday. RBS issued a statement last night saying that it notes recent speculation about a possible rights issue.
RBS expected to ask investors for cash

The bank last night responded to the frenzied speculation. "RBS notes recent speculation about a possible rights issues. RBS confirms that its interim management report covering trading performance and capital will be next week".
RBS considering rights issue

The unwritten rule is straightforward: if a company says it doesn't need to raise new capital, and then hits its shareholders with a big rights issue, it's time for the chief executive to pack his bags. When the company is a bank that last year led a huge cross-border takeover, and then declined to walk away from the deal when the credit markets blew up, it is hard to believe that shareholders would make an exception.
The rights and wrongs of a cash call too far

Gilt yields have soared in the past three days - partly it seems because of worries that the Government may have to issue lashings of extra debt to feed its putative mortgages-for-gilts swap plan. Details of the plan, intended to lubricate the paralysed interbank lending market, have yet to be released. But banks are expecting to take a haircut of 5 to 15 per cent on the value of the securities they swap.
Haircuts for everyone at the bank

The cost of UK government bonds continued to fall yesterday as investors prepared for a deluge with new gilts issued to bring the paralysed interbank lending market back to life.
Treasury bond scheme depresses gilts prices

The construction industry has launched its defence against bid-rigging allegations made by the Office of Fair Trading, and argued that if excessive fines are imposed there is a risk that some of the companies accused will go bust.
Construction industry: Bankruptcy threat from OFT fines

UK house prices are forecast to fall by 15 per cent over the next two years that would push 10 per cent of Britain's homeowners into negative equity, signalling a return to the housing crash of the early 1990s.
One UK home in 10 'to fall into negative equity'

The Bank of England's chief economist last night rejected calls for more aggressive cuts in interest rates when he said Threadneedle Street was walking a tightrope between rising inflation and a deepening credit crunch.
Bank's chief economist rejects cutting interest rates as way forward

A key inter-bank borrowing rate surged yesterday in the wake of comments by economists questioning its credibility. The three-month dollar London Interbank Offered Rate climbed more than eight basis points - its biggest jump since last August - following criticism that the pivotal measurement was being understated.
Dollar Libor soars as banks rethink their borrowing rates

Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU's 'Mr Euro', has given the clearest warning to date that the world authorities may take action to halt the collapse of the dollar and undercut commodity speculation by hedge funds.
Authorities lose patience with collapsing dollar

Fears that the economic slowdown in the US has infected advertising spending were assuaged last night after Google beat Wall Street expectations with a 42 per cent surge in revenues for the first quarter of the year.
Googles 42% revenues rise lays fears of advertising slowdown

Global trade growth is expected to slow to a six-year low of 4.5 per cent this year but China has overtaken the US as the world's second-biggest exporter, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said yesterday.
China passes US as second-biggest exporter

Kyoto - 18 Apr 2008 02:34 - 4 of 55

NIKKEI 225AUSTRALIA ASX200SHANGHAIHANG SENG
t?s=%5EN225t?s=%5EAXJOt?s=000001.SSt?s=%5EHSI

Kyoto - 18 Apr 2008 02:35 - 5 of 55

US Video: Stock Market Technical Analysis 4/17/08

Greystone - 18 Apr 2008 06:23 - 6 of 55

Good morning traders!

In Asia today, the Hang Seng reched the midpoint up 15.76 points at 24,274.72,
while the Nikkei was recently down 4.41 points at 13,398.89.

New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in May, was 17
cents higher at $115.03 a barrel.

Happy Friday!

G.

Kyoto - 18 Apr 2008 10:58 - 30 of 55

London shares - mid-morning features

Kyoto - 18 Apr 2008 12:19 - 35 of 55

London shares - midday features

Greystone - 18 Apr 2008 12:25 - 37 of 55

Midday Market Roundup

Kyoto - 18 Apr 2008 12:45 - 39 of 55

Precious Metals Summary - London AM Fixings

Master RSI - 18 Apr 2008 15:11 - 46 of 55

SEY 9 - 9.09p +0.175p

moving higher for the last few days and now well up from the start of the week after being selected as "Share of the WEEK"

5 days chart                                                                         2 month chart
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=SEY&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SEY&Si

Kyoto - 18 Apr 2008 15:17 - 47 of 55

London shares - midafternoon features

Master RSI - 18 Apr 2008 15:17 - 48 of 55

"KEEP AN EYE"

OXB - Oxford Biomedica

Panmure note today :
Buy 22.0p
Target Price: 69p

EPS
Dec 2007 A -2.93p
Dec 2008 E -1.63p
Dec 2009 E -2.67p

Panmure Gordon Estimates
Market Cap: 118m

Oxford BioMedica
Second patient dosed on ProSavin
A second patient was dosed on ProSavin this week. ProSavin is a gene
therapy candidate for the treatment of Parkinson's disease. The importance
of the second patient being dosed is that it comes a full month after the first
patient, which implies that no issues were raised on safety. If there were any
safety issues with the first patient, the DSMB would not have allowed the
second patient to be dosed.
We understand a second patient has now been dosed on ProSavin as of 15 April 2008.
We ascribe some value to this event as it implies dosing of the first patient was without
major safety issues. The phase I trial for ProSavin started dosing patients in March 2008.
Once the first patients are dosed we expect this product to start adding to the technology
value embedded in the company. It is worth noting that unlike most other indications,
Parkinsons disease enjoys the benefits of a highly predictive pre-clinical model, which
encourages us on the prospects of ProSavin in clinical trials.
ProSavin is a novel gene therapy approach that utilises the companys proprietary
LentiVector system to deliver three genes (ADDC, TH and CH1) that collectively
mediate the conversion of endogenous tyrosine into dopamine. The therapy is designed
to provide long-lasting relief from PD symptoms and is administered via an MRI-guided
stereotactic injection into the brain of patients.
Parkinsons Disease has been touted as a promising target for gene therapy for some
time. The therapeutic aim for such a strategy is to introduce genes responsible for
dopamine production into cells that populate the area of the brain that is dopamine
deficient. The delivered (exogenous) genes are designed to reprogram the transfected
cells into kick-starting the production and subsequent release of dopamine thus
restoring the mechanisms controlling voluntary movement.
The company is trading at a significant discount to our price target of 69p, which is
supported by our SOTP valuation of the leading indications for TroVax. With the global
licensing deal for TroVax now in place, a lot of the technology due diligence can now be
assumed, which mitigates the technology risk somewhat. The company remains well
capitalised and we reiterate our Buy recommendation and 69p price target.


5 days chart                                                                         2 month chart
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=oxb&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=oxb&Si

Kyoto - 18 Apr 2008 15:57 - 49 of 55

Precious Metals Summary - London PM Fixings

Kyoto - 18 Apr 2008 16:02 - 50 of 55

TFN economic and business calendar to Friday May 2

Kyoto - 18 Apr 2008 16:13 - 52 of 55

OUTLOOK Aviva Q1 sales seen 3.5 pct higher

Kyoto - 18 Apr 2008 16:24 - 53 of 55

CORRECTION OUTLOOK Aviva Q1 sales seen 3.5 pct higher

Greystone - 18 Apr 2008 17:03 - 54 of 55

End-of-day Market Roundup
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