Anybody think Lloyds will bail out, or not be able to continue with HBOS takeover

Well, as I have said before, it is a case of trusting the Lloyds management. They may well of not have had time to do due diligence but, we also do not know at this stage weather the board have been able to get Government guarantees, should things be worse than they thought. We will have to wait to get documentation from Lloyds. I think that the deal will go through but, we may see the terms adjusted.

Circulars have already been posted to HBOS shareholders with the basics of the deal outlined. Indication is that (subject to HBOS shareholder approval) the deal will take place in December at the earliest, though more likely some time early in 2009.

Call me negative but I have a bad gut feeling about this takeover happening.

almost every person i have spoken to says they will decline the offer......ok, they r private investors but if they feel this way en masse, then not sure if deal will go through.

scotland is very angry about this as it was halifax and stupid english tway andy hornby that screwed it up...........worse thing that happened was halifax merger with BOS in 2001..........greedy english gits have taken all the scottish assets

You must have broad shoulders, scott. That chip on it is getting heavier and heavier.

I seem to recall that it was the CEO of BoS, Peter Burt, who wanted to merge with Halifax to create a superbank and get more access to the English markets, despite Fred Goodwin (another chief executive of BoS) advising strongly against the merger. Burt had already failed in attempting a merger with NatWest, but as the new boy in the BoS team he wanted to shine.

So if BoS picked up a bad business, they only have themselves to blame.

Oh, and Burt was born in East Africa but educated in Scotland, before you decide that he is another english tway (some sort of local colloquialism?) ;-)

no, just a typo when i was busy typing.

its funny how media are slaying fred goodwin but hardly a mention for andy hornby. hornby has still been continually buying housebuilders even this year when everyone knows housing is knackered in this country. bad business maybe but to buy a business that has helped finish u off is horrific

at least rbs has bankers on its board......no-one on hbos (or should that be halifax) has any banking knowledge and sadly it shows

I reckon we should sell our mortgage books to Scotland, and see how well they do.
Considering most of them can only just read and write English, they would have little chance.

what are the figures then since you seem to know everyone in the country?

err, about 20% of country r english u dimwit........and guess wot.......1 in 5 cant read or write..........i think we all can surmise who r the thickos.
oh, and go to most major companies and you will see a lot of the educated ones on the boards r scottish............english education system is crap and has always behind scotland

and why would scotland want crappy english mortgages?

about time u lot stopped living off our oil and whisky money

Maybe we should introduce a paid for Visa to enter England from Scotland that would fill the coffers.

and maybe we should carry out a bit of ethnic cleansing to purify my great country

If all the Jocks living in England were to return to haggisland you would not have enough council houses to put them in.

Now then, now then, there's a tsunami heading this way - don't waste time discussing who makes the best beach-umbrellas.
-Run for the hills!

u r a racist........just like mitzy

good idea woaded one ..... let's have a bit of clearance like we did during the jacobite rebellions!

No I like black people

it was the english that drove us out of our own country centuries ago!!!!

u lot r rapists

yes cynic.....thats what i was referring to......about time someone did it to english to see how they felt.

r u black, clubman?

at least cynic is reasonably well informed..........u clubman r a moron......i doubt u went to school by sounds of it

).

err, clubman........its not just whether its anti-black that makes a person racist...........your terminology in recent posts makes u a racist

doh! jacobite rebellions, or did your school history books excise those other than battles of prestonpans (1745) and sterling (sic -lol!) in 1297 which was the precursor!

your spelling gone a bit there cynic.

as i say, at least i respect you as u have studied history and have well round knowledge on things

how much longer is markets going to be bad for cynic? any ideas

ok guys, enough - focus on the threads subject matter and not trading personal insults/accusations.

Ian

dope .... hence (sic - lol!) - and rotfl!

in honesty, i really have no idea at all and cannot make it out.
individual countries may well get hit harder than the global economy, which is how it feels at the moment, but it may be that the global economies - particularly india and china - will also suddenly fall off a cliff.

Clubman3509
What worries me is my holding in LLOY is going south, when I thought we were told the new LLOY-BOS would have greater incomes, economies of scale. etc.
-OR is this a new brand of sweeties, made in Chernoble, which glows in the dark and causes lukemia (fears)?
If LLOY has been dilligent in staying away from Halifax-style generous Mortgage deals (C+G being somewhat po-faced), then WHY would they touch HBOS with a barge-pole?
. . . . . Well, I understand both have been mulling-over a JV for some time, so it follows their finances are reasonably well understood.

Mortgage providers (dare I suggest NRK/B&B _?) were only "found-out" in these particularly difficult times, triggered by "sub-prime" - if US mortgage providers had kept to the "Mortgage Rules" there would have been no Sub-Prime market - but these jumped-up US-lenders flouted their Rules by pretending it wasn't a Mortgage Broker ( =my understanding...DYOR)....and traded "outside the rules" - it was this unconnected lunacy that made International Money-Markets look closely at our own Mortgage providers and the likes of NRK had already felt the effects when US-Banks and others stopped lending to each other. That was when they noticed HBOS/NRK/B&B were always taking money out of the system . . . . . although HBOS was nothing like the other two, I suspect.

Therefore LLOY/HBOS already know the state of their respective liabilities - hence the rush to join when the Merger-Regulations are "off" - earlier this would have been stopped!
AARGH!. . . . for YET still the LLOY sp falls (faster? than HBOS)- and I don't like it........Grr!

Ian .... trading is a dirty word to several members - lol!

Is Scotland that great country you can't wait to emigrate from ???

You don't half talk a load of bullsh*t scotty.

Aww sorry Ian just saw the warning ... but he is a right uckin prat.

After averaging down with lloy, I now almost have my quota, what I should have done was trade out of them last week at 325, and buy back in lower. But I wasn't fast enough on the day, so back to original plan and hold for long term, about 2 to 3 years.

At least the perma bull at Panmure Gordon Sandy Chen has changed his view from a hold to buy with 340p price target.

Spitfire, it may be 5-10years.































8-)

I hope not as I have some.

You may be right, it's a hard call for timescales, but when sentiment changes it can move the sp higher very quickly. So looking at the brightside, at least I have brought the shares, and won't miss the bull run.

But being a pessimist I will plan for next year to still be a bear market, with a recovery due in 2010.

Now that the plan has failed, I would think there is a good chance RBS, Barlays and LLoyds will be bust within days unless the Fed has a masterplan. Panic on the high street once the media gets hold of it.

America is "over there" and I understood LLOY has plenty of funds that are not controlled by our cousins - - - - so panic aside ( =Buying Op), there is no real reason for bankrupsy.
Just what is it that LLOY has handled that is now zero?
Fred1new - I don't like 10-years, particulalry as many FTSE companies are already fairly under-valued.
The "credit crunch" is due to fear, not lack of dosh.

-although US finances are hardly "sweet" and the FBI may be feeling some collars . . .. just hope they stick to home-ground first - that's where the Regulations were abused. What was any business doing leanding to "no-income" families.... Eh? Good for a charity, but NOT a commercial operation . . . . those deals were dishonest for the Family AND the providers .

However, I do wonder the position of Moody and Poor (IMHO) and any Credit-Rating agency that was able to ignore the creation of AAA-rated bundles that contained not much more than do-do . . . were their Rules applied lax? . . . or were their Rules total rubbish?
So, why would Banks accept these "bundled debts" - were they also part of "an unwitting scam" - (or worse), ?

Oh dear, - you couldn't write stuff like this!!!

tis a case of market sentiment. NRK, BB. A&L and HBOS were always the weakest but the market has certainly turned its attention to RBS today (unfortunately for me) because of the Ambro situation. I feel the next bank on the 'list' if it happens would be RBS. Expected it to be mnths away but after tonight maybe it is only days away. If RBS goes, then LLOY and BARC would be close behind.

IMO

ps I sincerely hope it doesn't happen cause I have RBS

Armageddon really is nigh

IMHO I'm surprised RBS has avoided the woes (they deserved, IMHO). Maybe RBS did pass the begging-bowl first, so that "may have" fixed things - certainly it was a great wheeze ( but a scam on RBS-shareholders, eh?).

All of this stemmed from the purchase of that Bank - Ambro, as you say. This was bought at the peak time for banking-shares. There were suggestions RBS paid "too much" ( as is always the case with buying turnover!) - and I don't think there was a retraqctment clause, which if set at 18 months would have reduced the price by a big-chunk.

The sorry thing is that Scots' pride has been battered by HBOS woes; and now it may be second-time arround . . . . . and this ignore the return of GB wrapped in tar. This Gov attempted to curry favour by boosting Nationalism, presumable it hurt Tory-hopes . . . . but 10-years on, it has shreaded all hopes of Labour Politicians, north of the Border.

Take a close look at the Ambro 'fiasco', call it what you will, and you may well be surprised to find that RBS actually ended up with the bargain end of the bank. There's no doubting that RBS is going to come under some intense pressure over the next few days UNLESS shareholders realize that they actually hold a solid share that will eventually pay mega dividends. DYOR but do it! Don't rely on others (yea, ok such as me!) to tell you what might be, RESEARCH it, I did, but I could just have missed something so that's why I say DYOR!

sentiment is everything in this market. Fundamentals mean nothing I'm afraid. If the market believes a cy is going bust then the sp collapses and everyone wants to bail out/ not do business with them = bust.

Nothing else matters

Things will be rough for banks now, but the Americans will still clobber something together for the bailout.

If things really turn bad, don't forget the lloy - hbos isn't a done deal yet, so it might not go through, it still needs to be voted on by share holders. So come on chaps, do try and look on the bright side of life, if I start singing that then you know it' all over.

heaven forbid! .... by the way, your Freudian slip should surely have read cobble, though i am sure some of the redneck renegades will get truly clobbered

Yes cobble it should have been, I should proof read my threads after a few glasses of wine. I think clobbering those idiots would be too good for them, hung strung and quartered.

lloy down 5% to 205p and hbos down 11% to 128p a few moments back. But using the takeover ratio of 0.83, hbos should be at 170p, the difference is growing each day. Are the markets now having doubts to the deal going through.

I'm sure Government will do everything in there power to keep it on track, but there may come a point when the short term threat may become to great for lloy.

Cant see Lloyds backing out of the best deal in the 21st Century - The government will probably throw sweetners in as well - But in these markets I suppose anything could happen. Banco Santander would rather have Hbos than AL. so no fear of a take-over not going through eventually. The Yanks will sort themselves out before Friday and everybody will be buying banks like madmen, then next week another twist...........

I hope you're right and those madmen start buying, the strange thing is that the gap has widened even further now, with lloy at 225p and hbos at 123p now. For the brave investor, buying hbos now would give many more lloy shares when the deal is/if passed. The correct ratio should be lloy = 225p and hbos = 186p, but the market is still to be convinced.

I been out walking the dogs but, my wife tells me from the news on TV that Lloyds is looking at the take over terms again which probably explains the widening between share prices spitfire43 mentions above. Lloyds appear to be in the driving seat.

was on bbc1 news.......mr.peston says the deal will NOT be changed........so hbos i imagine looking cheap this morning for the medium term

Correct Haggis. Lloyds say deal is still on same terms

under the old formula, i calculate that with LLOY at 227 (as now), HBOS would have been valued at 188 ...... HBOS is currently 128, so make of that what you will, always bearing in mind that there will always be something of a discount to cater for the time element involved


what's your take on this scotty?

hi cynic

i think in medium term say 2 to 3 years this is very cheap sp right now.......its ironic that city boys knocked hbos sp down last year on results day as they said they hadnt increased mortgage stuff / housing.....when their results were very good.

if you are day trading etc then best of luck as sp is all down to rumours every few hours it seems

greetings to my black clubman

Financial News
Tuesday September 30, 01:34 PM
HBOS plunges on Lloyds rescue doubts
By Lee Wild


LONDON (ShareCast) - Fears that Lloyds TSB may re-price its 12.2bn bid for HBOS (LSE: HBOS.L - news) helped shares in
the Halifax owner tumble by as much as a fifth on Tuesday.

Lloyds, which saw its value fall by 11% earlier today, agreed an all-share offer with HBOS less than a fortnight ago worth 0.83 Lloyds shares for every HBOS share held.

At 192.5p, the lowest Lloyds reached this morning, the deal values HBOS at less than 160p a share. Lloyds is now up to 225p, pricing its offer at 187p.

But HBOS has been struggling all day and, although its shares have halved their earlier deficit, they're still trading at just 127p.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is said to have encouraged Lloyds chairman Victor Blank to approach HBOS, leaving many doubting the deal will fail, but others believe the ongoing financial turmoil might give Lloyds a good excuse to renegotiate terms.

Lloyds TSB shareholders are said to dislike the big exposure HBOS has to the wholesale money markets, potentially damaging a generally more cautious Lloyds.

Three-quarters of them must back the takeover when they vote late next month or early in November (Frankfurt: A0S9N7 - news) in order for the deal to succeed

yes its up to shareholders......i think a lot of people have forgotten that.

mr.peston seems in the know and assured less than an hour ago on tv news about deal......remember he was the one that came out with breaking news on deal which should have been hush hush.

I think Banco Santander should step in - Offer more, drop AL. bid, and really set the cat among the pigeons !! And in these crazy times NOTHING would surprise me. BS were pissed that they never got to make an offer in the first place - Watch this space !

i knew a guy in hbos last year that told me BS would get hbos and this was before the financial collapse this year........unfortunately i aint seen the guy again as he has moved to another branch.

hbos is dead cheap now.....plus BS have all the deposit money from BB. as well now to use

To be totally honest another bid from another source wouldn't be a bad thing all round - it could kick start a buying rally once again and bail the Government out the s*it. An earlier post said if they knew the bailiffs were knocking on the door they would be willing to renegotiate - well so would other buyers as well, personally if you tried to renegotiate with me I'd strip the house and burn the thing down first. Hope they dont do that - not till the firemen strike anyhow :-)

snp government will also prefer banco taking over as its foreign

Can see Hbos rallying back in last half hour - Just topped up so hope I'm right ! Just been reading other threads and snippets of news and gave me the distinct impression they are quite a good bet.

Out !! That cost me few quid though ! Still fancy them to bounce back but no way leaving any banking position open overnight. I'd rather take a loss on the day - Oh well you cant win them all :-(

why did you not hold? ..... they're cheap enough and in fact have been all over the place in last few mins - low about 119 and back up to 124

No Chance, not in this market - I really do think they'll come storming back .... when is the question, news tonight can swing it either way - might be able to buy back cheaper in the morning again, maybe not, but they will come back. Cant see Lloyds being allowed to renegotiate a deal at all. Only way it wont go through is shareholders vote against it - and if you offered me a company for less than half it was worth I'd snap your hand off, any shareholder in their right mind must be able to see they have got the deal of the century. But saying that I didn't see B&B being raped like it was !!

However old fashioned tipton is just hoping that our Board will learn from RBS failure and renegotiate HBOS terms ... while the Board are meeting they could agree to accept some of their fees in shares, after all this appears to be good for us ordinary mortals

EU approves Bradford & Bingley rescue plan
AFXU


BRUSSELS, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The European Commission approved on Wednesday a rescue plan for British mortgage-lender Bradford & Bingley that was one of a string of efforts by European authorities to limit contagion from the U.S. financial crisis.

A bit late