Worth taking a look at the TA and the Fundies.....

Bought a few Norseman Gold this morning. The weakness of the dollar and the rising SP of gold looks like it could help the mining explorers and producers over the autumn to next year.

Think Tom Winnifrith tipped this a few weeks back.


Target first stop 55p and then 60p resistance.

Tom Winnifriths tip.....

Buy Norseman Gold.
Argues Tom Winnifrith of t1ps.com


AIM Listed Norseman Gold has a huge cash pile
It is generting cash at todays gold price and at current production levels.
And is cheap on that basis
But when gold surges so too will Norsemans casflows
And as its output jumps over the coming year, costs will be slashed so boosting cashflows rapidly.
Norseman is a buy at 31.5p and at up to 42p with a one year target of 74p


This is a very simple tale indeed. My colleague Richard Gill spotted this when the shares were just 15p on the Aim & Plus Newsletter and so, with a hat t1p to Atilla, I clamber on board now as the shares are still very cheap. This is a company with a powerful cashed up balance sheet, generating cash, increasing its output so cutting its unit costs with a large proven resource and in the right place at the right time. Norseman (NGL) is a buy at 31.5p and at up to 42p with a one year target of 74p.

The Asset
Norseman Gold came to AIM via a complex reverse takeover in April 2007. The details are not relevant. It owns the Norseman Goldmine, which is in Western Australia and is the longest continuously running gold mining operation in the Land of High Culture. Gold was first found on the Norseman field in 1894 and since 1937 it has produced over 5.5 million ounces. Norsemans holdings cover 1,614 square kilometres centred on the Norseman Township where most of its workers live and drink. The area has a superb infrastructure including site-generated power, nearby rail links and airstrip and currently produces from two narrow-vein underground mines the Bullen and the Harlequin.



Since the AIM listing Norseman has made good progress in increasing the JORC compliant resource at the mine. The resource base is now c21 million tonnes at a grade of 5.5 grammes per tonne of gold for 3.7 million ounces There is huge exploration potential within the companys tenements.Norsmans objective at Bullen and Harlequin is to marginally boost production levels it is looking to add a third mine to the Norseman project. Resource drilling programmes are ongoing on three advanced projects North Royal, the OK Mine and Crown Reef with the new mine targeted to be opened during the financial year to June 2010.



Post the RTO Norseman encountered a few technical issues which meant that it missed production targets and its shares duly slumped. But a quarterly report out the other day showed that it is very much on track. The metrics are simple. Norseman has net cash of 17.6 million. In the year to June 30th 2009 it produced c80,000 oz at a cash cost of A$715 oz. But as output levels increased (to 22,000 oz in Q4) cash costs slipped ( to A$636 or US $523) in Q4 although this was partially driven by lower diesel prices. But if a third mine comes onstream Norseman has capacity to treat 700,000 tonnes of rock per annum and so to easily produce 100,000 oz -at that level cash costs would fall to US$500.

So what is Norseman Worth?
If you are into broker forecasts of earnings per share the house broker is looking for 5.5p in the year to June 30th 2010 and 9p next year. To me this is not relevant.



The worst case scenario for Norseman is that it carries chucking off c80,000 oz per annum at a cash cost of say $550 oz. Gold stays at c $900 and it should generate 11 million of post tax cashflow per annum. In which case on a cashflow multiple of 5 (plus net cash) the shares should be at 42.2p. You will note the size of Norsemans resource & hence long mine life.



But I assume that output will increase to 100,000 oz pretty soon, that cash costs then fall to $500 and it is my belief that gold is heading to well above $1000 per oz. But lets use a $1000 price on that basis the mine will be generating $50 million a year cashflow. Assume a 30% tax rate and shall we call it 22 million. On the same 5 multiple + net cash we derive a 74p price target.



The shares are a buy at 31.5p. The worst case scenario is the 42p limit buying price. My assumptions generate a 74p price target on a one year view. Buy.

Key Data
EPIC: NGL
Market: AIM

dyor.

NGL (37p)

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Norseman Gold posts A$20.4 million maiden profit, eyes acquisitions.(ProactiveInvestors)

by Sergei Balashov

Western Australia operating miner NORSEMAN GOLD (AIM: NGL, ASX: NGX) concluded the 2008/09 campaign with a strong set of full year results today, posting a A$20.4 million maiden net profit off higher revenues, while operational costs were pushed below the bottom range of the forecast.

Revenues were up 36% year on year to A$96.7 million, while last years losses of A$8.7 million turned into a A$22.2 million pre-tax profit.

The increase in revenues was due to a 4.6% improvement in gold output from its principal asset Norseman Gold Project in Australia to 80,753 ounces, while gold price rose to an average A$1,179 per ounce, compared to last years A$905. The company earlier reported it was ahead of its production targets, capping the year off with a record quarterly output from the Norseman mine.

The profits were helped by lower operating costs, which were brought down to A$715 per ounce, beating the projected minimum of A$720.

On the operational side, Norseman said resource drilling had commenced on the companys OK decline and results were expected in the first half of the next financial year, while the pumping infrastructure at North Royal had been installed and commissioned and pumping was anticipated to get started this month.

Production from one or both these projects is expected to commence in the next financial year, following its fill the mill strategy to start a third mine and fill its under utilized Phoenix processing plant to full capacity.

The company plans to increase the reserves at the Norseman mine through exploration drilling from the current 310,000 ounces to 500,000 and ultimately 750,000 ounces over the next two years, seeking to expand the mine life to 10 years from the current minimum of five years.

Norseman said it was confident about its prospects for the coming year and targeted acquisitions, bolstered by a balance sheet of A$68 million and cash balances of A$32.6 million after generating net cash of A$25.5 million this year.

Norsemans gold production remains un-hedged, and its balance sheet is the strongest it has been since acquiring the Norseman Gold Project in May 2007. Furthermore, the Company will commence to explore other opportunities to increase its production profile by exploration, merger or acquisition, making full use of its mining expertise, cash position and strong balance sheet, said Chairman Vince Pendal and Chief Executive Barry Cahill, commenting on the full year results.

Progress at its Norseman mine in Australia reported over the past financial year helped the companys stock value to a more than threefold increase to 37p per share from about 10p a year ago.

Interesting snippet on SP of gold.....

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_COMMODITIES_REVIEW?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2009-09-03-15-49-16

Up 6.5% ,telephone only dealing at IG index at the moment.....short of stock?.

Some heavy buying in this stock late on today.

Norseman ngl gold mimer starting to look interesting from a TA view on the back of the rising price in gold...

Off to a flying start this morning.

Jim Slater increasing his stake.

Notice that "Mr J D SLATER & FAMILY" now hold 4 pct+

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200909290822548228Z

From Tom Winnifrith who is usually good on miners....

Buy Norseman Gold at 31.5p
Argues Tom Winnifrith of t1ps.com


AIM Listed Norseman Gold has a huge cash pile
It is generting cash at todays gold price and at current production levels.
And is cheap on that basis
But when gold surges so too will Norsemans casflows
And as its output jumps over the coming year, costs will be slashed so boosting cashflows rapidly.
Norseman is a buy at 31.5p and at up to 42p with a one year target of 74p


This is a very simple tale indeed. My colleague Richard Gill spotted this when the shares were just 15p on the Aim & Plus Newsletter and so, with a hat t1p to Atilla, I clamber on board now as the shares are still very cheap. This is a company with a powerful cashed up balance sheet, generating cash, increasing its output so cutting its unit costs with a large proven resource and in the right place at the right time. Norseman (NGL) is a buy at 31.5p and at up to 42p with a one year target of 74p

The Asset
Norseman Gold came to AIM via a complex reverse takeover in April 2007. The details are not relevant. It owns the Norseman Goldmine, which is in Western Australia and is the longest continuously running gold mining operation in the Land of High Culture. Gold was first found on the Norseman field in 1894 and since 1937 it has produced over 5.5 million ounces. Norsemans holdings cover 1,614 square kilometres centred on the Norseman Township where most of its workers live and drink. The area has a superb infrastructure including site-generated power, nearby rail links and airstrip and currently produces from two narrow-vein underground mines the Bullen and the Harlequin.



Since the AIM listing Norseman has made good progress in increasing the JORC compliant resource at the mine. The resource base is now c21 million tonnes at a grade of 5.5 grammes per tonne of gold for 3.7 million ounces There is huge exploration potential within the companys tenements.Norsmans objective at Bullen and Harlequin is to marginally boost production levels it is looking to add a third mine to the Norseman project. Resource drilling programmes are ongoing on three advanced projects North Royal, the OK Mine and Crown Reef with the new mine targeted to be opened during the financial year to June 2010.



Post the RTO Norseman encountered a few technical issues which meant that it missed production targets and its shares duly slumped. But a quarterly report out the other day showed that it is very much on track. The metrics are simple. Norseman has net cash of 17.6 million. In the year to June 30th 2009 it produced c80,000 oz at a cash cost of A$715 oz. But as output levels increased (to 22,000 oz in Q4) cash costs slipped ( to A$636 or US $523) in Q4 although this was partially driven by lower diesel prices. But if a third mine comes onstream Norseman has capacity to treat 700,000 tonnes of rock per annum and so to easily produce 100,000 oz -at that level cash costs would fall to US$500.


. So what is Norseman Worth?
If you are into broker forecasts of earnings per share the house broker is looking for 5.5p in the year to June 30th 2010 and 9p next year. To me this is not relevant.

The worst case scenario for Norseman is that it carries chucking off c80,000 oz per annum at a cash cost of say $550 oz. Gold stays at c $900 and it should generate 11 million of post tax cashflow per annum. In which case on a cashflow multiple of 5 (plus net cash) the shares should be at 42.2p. You will note the size of Norsemans resource & hence long mine life.



But I assume that output will increase to 100,000 oz pretty soon, that cash costs then fall to $500 and it is my belief that gold is heading to well above $1000 per oz. But lets use a $1000 price on that basis the mine will be generating $50 million a year cashflow. Assume a 30% tax rate and shall we call it 22 million. On the same 5 multiple + net cash we derive a 74p price target.



The shares are a buy at 31.5p. The worst case scenario is the 42p limit buying price. My assumptions generate a 74p price target on a one year view. Buy.

Key Data
EPIC: NGL
Market: AIM
Spread: 31p 32p (3.125%)

what date is the above rns GF?? only sp price doesn't tally with todays price. eg 51p cheers BB

gold finger noticed the same when i went to buy the sp .the subscription is 73 for tips com site .
Gold finger presume you have access to tips can you share similar ones .with upward movement never know which tip may be a winner!

Hi chaps.

No not a subscriber to tips but am a member at sharecrazy where all the tips from the t1ps stable can be viewed for free on the front page and usually posted about 5 days after the original tip in order I suppose to further propel the SP further north. All historic tips can be viewed by clicking on the header. Free sign up to that site by the way.

It was one of the daily free tips. It arrived in my inbox on Thurs 20th August.

I'll slap GF's legs when i see him, got me all excited he did. :))

LOL BB...... now this is up to date fresh off the chopping board at hemscott...

Looks pretty good trading on a forward P/E of just a miserly 6.8 to 2010, derd cheap... (one way of valuing the company)

Norseman Gold PLC

FORECASTS
2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Investec Securities
12-10-09 BUY 18.30 7.45 18.77 7.64

Astaire Securities [R]
09-10-09 None 8.25 13.75

2010 2011
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 18.30 7.45 0.00 18.77 7.64 0.00
1 Month Change 2.77 1.13 0.00 2.24 0.91 0.00
3 Month Change 18.30 -0.80 0.00 -6.11


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS % -30.80% 2.55%
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA 14.39m 24.42m 26.89m

EBIT 9.61m m m

Dividend Yield % % %

Dividend Cover x x x

PER 4.71x 6.81x 6.64x

PEG f -0.22f 2.60f

Net Asset Value PS 12.51p p p

Is this a good chance to buy or sell?
52p now.

i wouldn't do anything, but shorting looks the less risky

Looks more like a buy now, cynic.

I think u are right again, cynic...50p now.

Gold is retracing so the Miners will in Unison.

Buy NGL now at 60p. This is seriously undervalued.

It's moving up.

After it's recent fall I've bought back this morning.
2517

Not like me to get the timing right (so far anyway). Although NGL are going to be around 10K ozs short for year end June 2010 the guidance for June 2011 is unchanged, although a lot can happen over 12 months.
2517

Some strange prices going through this morning, 60.21p; 59.44p both way above current sp.
2517

I've almost certainly done the wrong thing, but have sold out for a 34% profit since 12th March.
2517

I need 62p

Have you tried asking a friend ha!ha------------------Good luck BB
2517

lol..

In the money now,,

NGL has gone the wrong way 4 me.

Watching for sub 40p to get back in.
2517

Production is going to be much less this year. Bad news. May go to 35p.

Looks way too cheap and looks like its not gone with the crowd of other small/mid producers so I suspect there is value here.

Good to see Tom W tipping it.



Buy Norseman Gold at 45.25p


Argues Tom Winnifrith of t1ps.com


Norseman (NGL) was originally tipped on t1ps.com by Tom Winnifrith back in July last year at 37p. If youd bought the shares then, you could be standing on gains of over 22%.

The Business

Norseman Gold (NGL) came to AIM via a reverse takeover in April 2007. The details are not relevant. It owns the Norseman Goldmine, which is in Western Australia and is the longest continuously running gold mining operation in the Land of High Culture. Gold was first found on the Norseman field in 1894 and since 1937 it has produced over 5.5 million ounces. Norseman’s holdings cover 1,614 square kilometres centred on the Norseman Township where most of its workers live and drink. The area has a superb infrastructure including site generated power, nearby rail links and airstrip and currently produces from three underground mines the Bullen, the Harlequin and the OK Decline.

Recent Trading

Norseman reported last month that it had increased its resources for a third consecutive year and reserves for a second consecutive year at the Norseman Gold Project including the replacement of depletion due to production. At 31st March 2010 Reserves were up by 5% to 0.42 million ounces (at 7.7 g/t gold) and resources (which include reserves) by 3% to 3.80 million ounces (at 5.3g/t gold) with this including the upgrading of 87,000 ounces from the Probable into the Proven Reserve category and 160,000 ounces from the Indicated and Inferred into the Measured Resource category. Additionally, the Resource and Reserve is expected to further expand during the current year due to the inclusion of ounces from the North Royal Open Pit optimisation, the Companys fourth mine and secondly, as the results from the drilling conducted by its four owned and operated underground diamond d rill rigs are received, interpreted and included.

Financials

The company recently announced a profit of Australian$3.11 million (c.1.8 million) for the year ended 30th June 2010, a sharp fall on the prior year as revenue fell from A$96.69 million to A$74.38 million (c.43 million). This was the result of gold production declining from 80,753 ounces in the prior year to 60,464 ounces and costs rising from A$715 per ounce to A$933 per ounce. However, significant development work means production should be back up and costs back down in the current year and as additional production is ushered in the company believes its cash balances will also be replenished. These were reduced to A$13.64 million (c.8 million, A$679,705 net) at 30th June 2010 from A$32.62 million (A$25.68 million net) a year earlier due to a net A$33.84 million (c.19.5 million) of investment spending during the year.


Conclusion

Norseman had a medium term target of producing 140,000 ounces per annum from its mines. More realistic for the current year is perhaps around 100,000 ounces of gold, with production at cash costs back to around what they were a couple of years ago. Even assuming production of just 100,000 ounces a year and a conservative profit margin of $400 an ounce then the company could be throwing off cash of $40 million a year (25.8 million). That makes the current valuation of 79.4 million look very cheap indeed. With the shares trading just ahead of my 42p limit buy price (having been t1pped at 37p in July 2009) Im currently recommending to those who bought at the time of the original tip that they hold. But if you want exposure to a well run, growing miner (and of course to gold) you could do worse than add Norseman to your portfolio.

Amazingly cheap looking at the Broker forecast following.

A P/E of just 6.6 going forward to 2011 then dropping to just 2.9 for 2012 ........derd cheap.

Norseman Gold PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Seymour Pierce
17-09-10 BUY 6.89 15.35 1.80

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 0.00 6.89 0.00 0.00 15.35 1.80
1 Month Change -12.24 -1.07 0.00 -27.15 -2.37 -0.28
3 Month Change -23.25 -3.97 -31.96 -0.79 0.83


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS -91.23% 629.98% 122.70%
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA m 22.24m 35.15m
EBIT m 11.00m 23.80m
Dividend Yield 0.00% % 3.92%
Dividend Cover x x 8.55x
PER 48.46x 6.64x 2.98x
PEG -0.53f 0.01f 0.02f
Net Asset Value PS p p p

Trading halt on ASX....takeover or capital raised ?....or something else....?

Sods law. Would you believe it.

Capital raising.

And I bought in half an hour before.....

Mariana Resources H1 loss widens


Mariana Resources unveils a consolidated first half loss widens to 1.05m - up from 390,016 last time.

At the end of June the firm had cash and cash equivalents of 3.3m.

Chairman J. R. Horsburgh said: "Exploration over the first half of the 2010 year has added significant value to the company's portfolio of properties.

"A high level of activity has been maintained both through Mariana's own efforts and those in partnership with joint venturers."

This stock is far far too cheap, just look at the forecast P/E for 2011 and 2012.

A P/E of just over 3 for 2012, when are people going to wake up and realise its fallen back way behind other mid tier producers like cluff and centamin, highland etc.

A fantastic opportunity here...........

Norseman Gold PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Seymour Pierce
01-10-10 BUY 6.89 15.35 1.80

2011 2012
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 0.00 6.89 0.00 0.00 15.35 1.80

1 Month Change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3 Month Change -22.72 -3.83 -31.73 -0.86 0.77


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS -91.23% 629.98% 122.70%
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA m 22.24m 35.15m

EBIT m 11.00m 23.80m

Dividend Yield 0.00% % 3.12%

Dividend Cover x x 8.55x

PER 60.91x 8.34x 3.75x

PEG -0.67f 0.01f 0.03f

Net Asset Value PS p p p

Technical
Technical indicators remain quite healthy overall for the Gold bull market
Thu, Oct 14 2010, 09:17 GMT

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/daily-commodities-update-technical/2010-10-14.html

Tipped in Shares Mag........

Norseman Gold (NGL:AIM) - BUY - 58.5p - Stop loss: 40.75p

The gold miner is addressing credibility issues so the market can focus on its plans to
more than double production in the next two years.

Now it's started to fly, in profit for first time.,.

Looks weak now.

Time to buy.....forecasts of 120000 ounces to be met......graph looks great and the market cap is a joke !.

Do you think Barry Cahill will deliver these plans in the next six months? The last six have not gone well.........can't decide to sell at a loss or hold

Hold and add.......way undervalued...and good news will come....

It is too early to call this a buy.

Norseman raises cash, lowers production guidance
Wed 16 Feb 2011

Norseman Gold 45.50p -0.55%

Australian gold producer Norseman Gold has raised 10m through a placing of 22.22m shares at 45p each. The funds raised will be used to bring the company's North Royal open pit into production, and to provide additional working capital.

The company is hoping to produce between 120,000 and 140,000 ounces in the full year 2011/12, but for 2010/11 it expects full year production to be 65,000 ounces, a reduction on previous guidance.

The reduction in the forecast production profile is attributable to three main factors: the decline in performance of the existing operating mines at Bullen and Harlequin during the first half of the year; the slower than expected ramp up to full production for the OK Decline due to various infrastructure and access issues which are now resolved; and the reduction in available hard rock feed from the North Royal open pit which has reduced the amount of soft oxide material that could be treated in the early stages of the mining schedule at the pit.

Got my timing wrong on this but it might worth a punt at these levels....repeating myself...way undervalued...

Well, this has turned out to be a disaster.....now and again ; you get one like this....

The OK Decline has continued to make slow progress in its ramp up, and the existing underground mines, Bullen and Harlequin, have continued to struggle to lift production to acceptable and forecast levels with treated tonnage and grade below expectations.

Hands up....I got it 100%wrong....would you believe it ? a loss making producing gold mine !.

Down to poor management. Despite capital raising end of last year, NGL is really struggling now.

Wish I'd sold out on last high but did'nt .... suffering now.,.

Dumped at a bad loss....along with DES....those are the worst for me this last year but cannot complain overall....but this is a bad setback....

NGL is a lousy share, but I remember Shares mag was promoting it last year.

Made big losses this quarter... not impressed with the management.

Norseman Gold, the AIM-listed and ASX-listed Australian gold production company provides the following guidance on its anticipated profit for the year to 30 June 2011, which is currently expected to show a loss of between A$13m and A$14m before tax and abnormal items, with full year gold production of 50,173 ounces. Preliminary results for the full year will be published on or before 31 August 2011.

The fourth quarter of the year saw ore production from the four mines during the quarter increase on previous quarters by some 16% and gold production increase by 27%. The quarter's results were impacted by weather conditions particularly during the last week of the month of June which restricted haulage ability and hence milling throughput and gold production.

Kevin there appears to be a thread already.

.

The future looking bleak @5p.

The management is to blame on this fundraising... 5p now.

anyone still in ?
I bought some today with profits from selling SXX......taking the view that this is rock bottom and maybe the next update here is much improved the could see the sp double...then again,,it might go belly up!

.

Interesting goings on here with trading suspended in Aussie land

Hopeless company

is TW'S "gang" still recomending this one?