Thought a place for metals news might be useful:

METALS-Copper slips, demand uncertainty dominates mood
Wed Oct 7, 2009 3:01pm EDT
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* Copper stocks rise again; highest since May * Investors eye mining labor talks * Analysts expect further support from dollar weakness
(Adds NEW YORK to dateline, recasts, adds New York closing copper
prices and analyst comments) By Chris Kelly and Rebekah Curtis NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Copper ended down a shade
on Wednesday in thin and volatile trade during Chinese holidays,
with rising stocks fueling uncertainty over demand against a
fragile economic background. Copper for December delivery HGZ9 on the New York Mercantile
Exchange's COMEX division eased 0.50 cent to settle at $2.7795 a
lb, after dealing in a session range between $2.7510 and $2.8040. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper for three-month
delivery MCU3 fell $21 to close at $6,095 a tonne. Prices of the metal used in power and construction have
doubled this year, driven by improving economic data, investor
flows and Chinese stockpiling. But sentiment has turned fragile in recent months as buying by
China, the world's top copper consumer, has tailed off and demand
from other world economies hampered by slowdown has yet to pick up
the slack. "There's been no effective economic growth caused by the
stimulus in the West," said John Meyer, analyst at Fairfax
investment bank. "We haven't seen any major infrastructure projects," he added.
"The only positive stimulus we've really seen is in China and
nearby regions." Trade was thin and volatile due a run of holidays in China
where markets shut on Oct. 1 for the National Day and Autumn
Festival holidays and only reopen on Friday. Additionally, nervousness in front of third-quarter earnings
results from aluminum producer Alcoa (AA.N) added to the lighter
conditions. "There is some nervousness out there in front of that number
that is keeping people a little bit to the sidelines today," said
Sterling Smith, an analyst for Country Hedging Inc in St. Paul,
Minnesota. "If Alcoa were to beat expectations, or up their guidance, or
preferably both, I think that will be very bullish for copper, and
for the industrial metals in general. I think you've got a lot of
hands being kind of quiet today ahead of it." A recent bout of more encouraging economic data has helped
underpin prices, including data showing German manufacturing
orders rose slightly more than expected in August on a boost from
foreign demand. [ID:nL7400974] STOCKS RISING Underlining demand concerns, LME copper stocks, which have
climbed since mid-July, rose 725 tonnes to 347,150 tonnes -- their
highest since May 2009. But recent dollar weakness is expected to support industrial
metals as a lower U.S. currency makes dollar-priced commodities
cheaper for holders of other currencies. And despite the dollar broadly firming on Wednesday, some
analysts see the currency falling further. [USD/] "If the dollar remains under pressure then the base metals
complex will continue to be supported and short players will
reduce risk," RBC Capital Markets said in a note. In the background, labor talks are being watched closely.
Chilean workers at Spence copper mine were in contract
negotiations with owner BHP Billiton (BLT.L)(BHP.AX).
[ID:nN06449937] "There are a number of potential supply issues hanging over
the market," said Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Capital.
"That's offering a little bit of support." Aluminum MAL3 ended at $1,845 from $1,822. Zinc MZN3
closed at $1,935 a tonne from $1,921 and battery material lead
MPB3 at $2,155 from $2,150. Steel-making ingredient nickel MNI3 closed at $18,600 from
$18,130 and tin MSN3 at $14,700 from $14,675. Latest LME data showed that a dominant position still holds
more than 90 percent of tin stock warrants and cash contracts. The premium for cash material over the three-month future has
fallen to $430 a tonne from $695 a tonne last week on talk that
the position could be scaled back. [ID:nLN605546]
Metal Prices at 1842 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2008 Ytd Pct move
COMEX Cu 276.75 -0.80 -0.29 139.50 98.39
LME Alum 1835.00 13.00 +0.71 1535.00 19.54
LME Cu 6090.00 -26.00 -0.43 3060.00 99.02
LME Lead 2146.00 -4.00 -0.19 999.00 114.81
LME Nickel 18600.00 470.00 +2.59 11700.00 58.97
LME Tin 14680.00 85.00 +0.58 10700.00 37.20
LME Zinc 1940.00 19.00 +0.99 1208.00 60.60
SHFE Alu 14835.00 130.00 +0.88 11540.00 28.55
SHFE Cu* 48190.00 1720.00 +3.70 23840.00 102.14
SHFE Zin 15330.00 240.00 +1.59 10120.00 51.48
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for
SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Additional reporting by Michael Taylor and Pratima Desai in
London; Editing by Keiron Henderson and Christian Wiessner)

Commodity charts link

Gold futures settled lower on Wednesday but not before rallying to a record $1,070 earlier in the session. Gold for December delivery fell $2 to settle at $1,064.00 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange as traders took profit on recent gains. Analysts said there is also concern that golds advance has been overdone. Gold has risen almost 5% this month.

Among other metals December silver rose 5.5 cents to $17.895 an ounce and December copper rose 5 cents to $2.8445 a pound.

Some Predict Nickel to Fall Below $10,000 Per Ton in 2010
October 19th, 2009 No Comments
Comments made by Carey Smith, a research analyst at Alto Capital speaking at the Australian Nickel Conference were reported in Mineweb and made chilling reading for high cost nickel producers. Smith said the easing of monumental stimulus programs and the ongoing depressed demand in the developed countries were going to result in a further deterioration in nickel demand next year. From a current price of over $18,000 per metric ton, Smith said they expected prices to fall to a range between $8,500 and $17,000 a ton over the next few years as prices cannot be justified by current supply and demand fundamentals. Specifically Alto Capital are calling out $11,000 in 2011 rising to $14,000 by 2014.

On the supply side Smith said global stocks equivalent to 35 days are the highest since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and there are additional but unknown quantities in Russia and China. Even with global stimulus packages estimated at $7 trillion, demand has failed to significantly pick up outside of China. And when these come to an end, demand is sure to slide further.

As we covered earlier this month, Chinas Nickel Pig iron producers have come back into the market with a vengeance this year impacting Chinas demand for refined metal and exacerbating the fall in demand. Some of the banks are predicting a period of re-stocking by distributors and end-users that have run down their stocks over the last 12 months but unless underlying end-user demand picks up this will be largely completed by the end of this year. Our straw poll of distributors suggests there is still a great deal of caution and many are continuing to live hand to mouth. Although we wouldnt share Alto Capitals bearish view, we do agree the large visible and invisible stocks are going to continue to weigh on prices and a return above $20,000 per ton is unlikely before 2011.

Stuart Burns

Gold appears to be taking a dive
Gold spot chart

Commodities: Gold up for sixth day in a row23-11-2009 06:42
Back to News headlines


Though the US dollar showed signs of recovery on Friday, investors banked on the trend being short lived and piled into gold, pushing the price of the yellow stuff up for the sixth session in a row.

The December futures contract rose $4.90 to hit $1,146.80 an ounce on Friday afternoon on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, having shown weakness in the morning session.

Fridays closing value was below the all-time high price of $1,153.40 an ounce hit on Wednesday.

Silver, by contrast, was out of favour with the December futures contract sliding 1.5 cents to $18.44 an ounce, but the price of copper hardened, with the March contract climbing 2.8 cents to $3.134 a pound in New York trading.

The price of crude oil dipped for the second day in a row as the greenback clawed back some recent losses against the euro. The price of oil usually moves contra to the direction of the US currency.

Crude oil for December fell 74 cents to $76.72 on its last day of trading. The more actively traded January contract eased $0.58 to $77.47 a barrel.

With the removal of the dollar as a reason for the price of oil to rise investors looked to the demand situation to see which way the price might move, and the consensus seems to be that demand is recovering, but only slowly.

On Wednesday, the US Energy Deparment said daily fuel demand in the US in the preceding four weeks had been 4.1% down on levels seen in the corresponding period of 2008.

Gasoline futures moved higher, however, after US refiner Valero Energy said it is shutting down its refinery in Delaware City, tipping 550 workers on to the dole.

The closure was in response to the tribulations suffered by the US motor manufacturing industry. The refinery has been losing $1m a day this year.

gold chart

Gold racked up another record high on Monday, topping $1,170 an ounce, on a weaker dollar and as Iran's war games caused a flight to the relative safety of the yellow metal.

The December contract closed $17.90 higher in New York at $1,164.70 an ounce, but had been as high as $1,174 earlier. It's only fallen once this month.

A slump in the value of the US currency increase gold's attractiveness as it makes the metal cheaper to buy. The two assets tend to have an inverse relationship, with gold going the opposite way to the dollar.

Meanwhile, Iran's decision to start a five-day war game covering thousands of square miles increased jitters.

Tehran says it wants to show it could repel an attack on its nuclear facilities by either Israel or the US. It also said it would launch a missile strike against Tel Aviv if It is attacked.

Elsewhere, silver, platinum, copper and palladium all rose sharply.

On the oil market, crude was up for the first session in three on Iran's posturing, with the January contract, the new front-month, up 11 cents to $77.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The black stuff also benefited from the weak dollar, which analysts think will support the oil price going forward

Many metals, including silver, copper and platinum will thrive as the dollar falls. (See "U.S. Dollar Has A Long Way To Fall"). Tom Lydon, head of Global Trends Investments, says a weaker dollar will make commodities prices cheaper for foreign buyers using stronger currencies and that demand will increase from companies overseas.

BuzzBase metals such as copper and silver make for good investments because they're used for infrastructure projects, which are receiving federal stimulus money, notes Marc Lowlicht, head of the wealth management division of Further Lane Asset Management. "Add the fact that both China and India are building out their infrastructure as well and you have the perfect storm.
Platinum and palladium, two industrial and precious metals, are "benefiting from hedging as well as hopes that industrial activity will take off in 2010," Lydon says. He adds that a lot of platinum is used in catalytic converters, which reduce car emissions. When climate change legislation is put in place and car sales subsequently pick up, demand for platinum will increase, Lydon says.

Commodities: Fed minutes trim gold's gains25-11-2009 02:39

Gold rose for the eighth session in a row though it closed off its best levels, after the release of the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the panel that sets the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

The minutes indicated that policy makers expect the US economy to grow, albeit at a slow rate, while unemployment is forecast to remain high. Inflation is expected to be lower than previously anticipated, suggesting that the Fed will not be raising interest rates any time soon.

Demand for the yellow stuff was boosted by news that holdings in SPDR Gold, the largest gold exchange traded fund (ETF), have risen to 1,121.46 metric tons from 1,117.49 on Friday. The increase indicates sustained investment demand for gold lies ahead.

The December gold futures contract rose $1.10 to $1,165.80, having hit $1,174 at one stage.

The oil price fell back on concerns over a slow-down in economic growth in China and the expectation of a rise in inventories to be announced on Wednesday by the US Energy Information Adninistration.

The January futures contract declined $1.54 to close at $76.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before declining further in after-hours electronic trading on the release of stockpiles data from the American Petroleum Institute (API).

The API said that US crude stocks increased by 3.4m barrels in the week to 20 November, versus expectations of an increase of 1.4m barrels.

Gold chart

Commodities: Gold's winning streak ends27-11-2009 06:22

Gold's nine-day rally, the longest since 1982, came to an end Thursday, but not before the yellow metal had hit another record high.

The December contract fell $3.30 to $1,183.70 an ounce in electronic trade, only the second day this month it has fallen. But it had touched a new best of $1,195 earlier on.

A rare strong session for the dollar gave gold a push in the right direction, but profit takers emerged later in what was thin trade as Americans were absent for Thanksgiving.

There had been large gains Wednesday following reports that India was back in the market for more of the International Monetary Fund's gold reserves. It paid $6.7bn for 200 metric tons of the fund's gold at the start of the month.

The IMF also confirmed Thursday that Sri Lanka had bought 10 tons of its gold for around $375m.

On the oil markets, crude skidded lower as traders decided inventories at their highest in four weeks would probably satisfy demand for fuel in the US this winter.

Crude oil for January delivery fell $1.73 to $76.23 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as the pits were closed for the US holiday.

Supplies of crude were almost 338 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, were 26% above the five-year average, the Energy Department said midweek.

Gold just gone through 1200$ mark

Gold hits new record high02-12-2009 07:13

Gold rose back above $1,200 per ounce again overnight in Asia as investors sought refuge from a weak dollar and Dubai's woes.

Spot gold traded at nearly $1,208 per ounce in Tokyo after closing at $1,196 in New York last night. Further out, three month futures were as high as $1,211 as traders forecast continued demand for the metal from investors spooked by the problems in Dubai and unease about the sluggish US economy and dollar.

Concerns over the dollar have been heightened by mixed economic data recently at a time when the US economy had been expected to be pulling out of recession. One of the key US economic indicators, non-farm payrolls figures are due on Friday.

Miners reducing their hedging activity have also contributed to the higher gold price with Barrick Gold recently confirming it has eliminated all of its hedge book.

Barrick, which had planned to end all gold hedges by next September, said: "Our positive view on the gold price led us to accelerate the elimination of these contracts ahead of the schedule we had established."

"With their elimination we no longer have any gold price related mark-to-market exposure and will now fully benefit from increases in the gold price," it said.

Reports that India's central bank is also looking to buy more bullion after snapping up 200 tonnes in November have also helped buoy the price recently.

Retail investors have also been busy, with world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, reporting holdings rose 0.61 tonnes to 1,130 tonnes and are closing in on June's record of 1,134 tonnes.

Current Gold price 1220$ and rising..:)

Commodities: Gold bandwagon rolls on03-12-2009 05:47

Gold hit another record high, breaking back above the $1,200 an ounce barrier, as pundits warned investors not to stand in the way of the gold bandwagon.

The yellow stuffs haven status as an investment has been enhanced by reports of central banks stocking up on the precious metal, plus the decision by miner Barrick Gold to close out all of its hedging positions on gold way ahead of schedule.

Barrick, which had planned to end all gold hedges by next September, said: Our positive view on the gold price led us to accelerate the elimination of these contracts ahead of the schedule we had established.

Gold for January delivery rose $12.90 to $1,212 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, having risen as high as $1,217.30 at one point. The price of gold moved higher still in electronic trading after the Comex close, hitting a new high of $1,218.40.

Crude oil futures turned lower Wednesday after US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels in the week to 27 November, according to figures released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Gasoline inventories rose by 4m barrels but distillate stockpiles declined by 1.2m barrels.

The EIA data tallied with trends from the American Petroleum Institutes oil inventory data on Tuesday, which showed crude oil stockpiles rose 2.89m barrels in the week to 27 November.

The price of the January contract fell $1.77 to $76.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Demand for oil was also undermined by a recovery in the US dollar against the euro. The price of oil usually moves counter to the value of the dollar.

Gold price diving as I type 1182$

US open: Shares sharply higher04-12-2009 15:06

US shares rose sharply thanks to the optimism sparked by the fact that just 11,000 US jobs were lost last month.

The market had been expecting a 100,000 reduction in Americans on non-farm payrolls in November, so the more modest decline was met with loud applause.

There was also surprise at a drop in the unemployment rate to 10% from 10.2%.

The Dow was 141 points higher in early trading at 10,517. Du Pont was the only faller on the Dow. The company has delayed the North American launch of its new corn and soybean seeds, which have a special herbicide.

The S&P and Nasdaq rose even more sharply. The S&P was 18 points higher at 1,118 and Nasdaq rose 40 points to 2,213.

Inventories at US factories increased for the first time in more than one year in October. Factory stocks rose 0.4%, while factory orders increased 0.6% - which was better than expected. The September figure for the rise in orders was revised upwards from 0.9% to 1.6%.

It wasn't all good news on the economic front. The Economic Cycle Research Institute's US Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), which anticipates cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 95.7 from a 93 in October. The October figure was revised upwards from 91.7. This is the eighth month in a row that the index has risen.

Discount retailer Big Lots is the biggest riser on the S&P. It more than doubled profits to 37 cents a share from 15 cents in 2008 and lifted sales by 2% to $1.04bn, both better than forecast.

General Motors chairman and acting chief executive Ed Whitacre has rejigged the car maker's management following the departure of chief executive Fritz Henderson. Bob Lutz will advise on design and development, Mark Reuss will be the North American boss and Nick Reilly takes over at GM Europe. Tim Lee will look after international operations.

Readers Digest plans to sell its CompassLearning educational technology business, which is currently the subject of a bankruptcy action. Readers Digest has made an initial agreement with a potential bidder but there is time for it to be outbid

">http://https://www.iGolder.com/gold-charts/">

Not metals news, but for the uninitiated like me a good article about Fridays sudden drop then revival. Bit long but worth a read.

So much for the Dow's 2009 high. Good news on jobs is bad news for stocks
Dan Burrows
Dec 4th 2009 at 6:45PMText SizeAAAFiled under: Economy, Investing
More

It was silly season on Wall Street Friday. November's unemployment figure -- still a dismal 10% and subject to revision -- came in stunningly better than expected and the markets immediately soared to fresh 2009 highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) alone shot up as much as 150 points in early trading.

And then, at about 11 a.m. Eastern, everybody decided to sell. "I don't know what happened," says David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's. "Some of it was probably just profit taking, but anybody who believes in rational markets hasn't looked at them very long."

On a Teeter-Totter

The Dow spiked, plunged and eventually finished with a wee gain. Welcome to the wacky world of equities, where good news is bad news and bad news is good news. It seems traders -- as fidgety as chipmunks but with shorter attention spans -- suddenly and collectively realized that an improving jobs picture could make their cheap-dollar-fueled bubbles blow up much sooner than expected.

Here's how: Stocks, gold and oil have all ballooned on the so-called reflation trade. That's where central banks and governments around the globe keep interests rates low (in the U.S.'s case, essentially at zero), while simultaneously flooding the world economy with stimulus spending. All that cheap liquidity has to flow somewhere, and it's been pouring into pretty much any asset class you can think of.

Magnifying this effect is that the weak dollar has become the vehicle of choice for the international carry trade. That's where traders borrow cheap currency (until recently, the yen for 16 years) to purchase higher-yielding assets such as stocks, bonds, oil, gold and commodities in general. Profit is made by pocketing the difference. As the dollar rises, borrowers of greenbacks find themselves in a short squeeze, which forces them to sell those higher-yielding assets in order to buy outright the dollars they've borrowed.

Dollar's Surprise Move

So if the economy is stabilizing faster than forecast -- as today's jobs report at first seemed to suggest -- the chipmunks figured the Fed will have to raise rates sooner than they expected. Why is that bad? Stocks and bonds drop on rate hikes even in the best of times. But in this case, it would hurt even more because a rising dollar will make all the assets it has reflated -- equities, debt, gold, oil, etc. -- fall even harder.

Which is exactly what the chipmunks did to these asset classes Friday. The dollar jumped and everything predicated on it being weak fell. Who saw that coming? Apparently no one. As Dennis Gartman, author of the well-regarded investment newsletter bearing his name, said Friday, punters who played the jobs report got what's coming to them.

"Anyone, anywhere who chooses to make material 'bets' in the world of trading/investing predicated upon the outcome of [the unemployment] report deserves the sound thrashing that he or she shall likely receive," Gartman told clients, noting that these reports are "notorious for revisions of 30% to 60%...in either direction!"

If there is some weirdly good news about Friday's market action, it's that at least the dollar/securities correlation remained intact, unlike the previous spooky session. On Thursday, small cap stocks, financials and oil fell even as the dollar sunk, too, notes Keith McCullough, CEO of ResearchEdge, a New Haven, Conn., strategy and research firm.

Rates Staying Put

"Dollar down equals stocks and commodities down?" McCullough wrote Friday. "Yes, this is new," the former hedge fund manager says. "It's called unwinding the reflation trade," says McCullough -- a situation that does not bode well for our bubbles.

Also adding to Friday's market mishegoss was that even though the employment report was a pleasant surprise when benchmarked against economists' and market expectations, "the overall labor market backdrop remains extremely fragile," wrote David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist and Canada's Gluskin Sheff. In other words, at least some of the chipmunks took the time to actually digest the data -- and they didn't like what they ate.

But getting back to the idea that the Fed might hike rates anytime soon? Well, that's just goofy. "The Fed will need to see sustainable unemployment trends before they'll raise rates," says S&P's Wyss. "And then if the fragile recovery started to fall apart, they would just drop them again."

The bottom line for retail investors is that one day in the market (or in Friday's case, 90 minutes) does not make a trend. Every day is but a single data point -- and some points are noisier than others.

INO.com Headlines
DJ PRECIOUS METALS: Comex Gold Slides As Traders Exit Positions
2 hours, 5 minutes ago

By Allen Sykora

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Gold futures are sharply lower early Monday in a continuation of the activity from Friday when traders were liquidating, or selling, to exit positions in which they previously bought, due to an uptick in the U.S. dollar after U.S. employment data that were not as weak as feared.

Around 8:56 a.m. EST (1356 GMT), February gold was down $23.90 to $1,145.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. March silver was down 39 cents to $18.13.

"Liquidation is dominating the market right now," said Patrick Lafferty, commodity trading advisor with MF Global. "It's been such a long, strong uptrend. The dollar is not up that much. But with the dollar higher, euro currency slightly lower and crude oil down, it's feeding the liquidation frenzy in gold."

The December dollar index was 0.025 point higher at 75.995.

As recently as Thursday, February gold hit a peak of $1,227.50 an ounce that was a record high for a Comex most-active contract. The market had risen steadily over the last two months due to weakness in the dollar and concerns about longer-term inflation.

However, the dollar recaptured some of its recent weakness after a Friday report showed that November non-farm payrolls fell only 11,000 when economists were looking for a bigger decline of around 125,000.

Some of the selling in gold are traders booking profits on long positions, said Stephen Platt, an analyst with Archer Financial Services.

"The market had certainly met some intermediate-term targets up around $1,180 and exceeded that for a brief period," he said. "There is a general fear that if the economy starts showing signs of stronger recovery following the favorable jobs report, you're going to have interest rates move higher, which could at least hinder some of the buying interest we've seen in gold recently from speculative interests."

Some of the decline is due to sell stops, which are pre-placed orders triggered when certain chart points are hit. That occurred as prices fell below the $1,150 area overnight, Platt said.

A healthy 50% correction in gold's most recent upleg in late autumn and early winter would take the market back to around $1,127, Lafferty said.

Meanwhile, January platinum was down $15.70 to $1,434 an ounce, while March palladium was down $12.20 to $367.10.

-By Allen Sykora, Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765; allen.sykora@dowjones.com

Mining giant Xstrata is to take charges of nearly $2.5bn this year after restructuring its copper, zinc and nickel operations in Canada and Australia. In Canada, it will take a $375m charge for the permanent closure of its copper and zinc metallurgical plants at the Kidd Metallurgical site in Timmins next May, which is part of a plan to restructure its Canadian metallurgical operations.

Gold fell for the third consecutive day as the dollar extended gains against major currencies. Gold for February delivery fell $20.60 to end at $1,143.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The rising dollar and inflationary concerns have hit gold prices hard, as its appeal as an alternative investment wanes.

March copper fell 4 cents to $3.17 a pound. Silver for March was down 58 cents to $17.79 an ounce.

London open: Miners lead Footsie higher11-12-2009 08:45

London's leading shares have opened higher with miners boosted by industrial growth figures coming out of China.

Industrial production growth in China rose again in November to hit 19.1% year-on-year. It is fastest pace of growth in industrial production since June 2007. Kazakhmys, Rio Tinto and Xstrata are all going well.

Support services and construction company Carillion expects market conditions will remain challenging but said it believes it will make further progress in 2010. Underlying earnings per share are forecast to grow by at least 10% in the 12 month ended 31 December.

There are no fallers on the blue chip index at present.

Casinos and bingo outfit Rank said it has submitted a claim for VAT overpaid on main stage bingo for periods from July 2004. If successful, Rank estimates that the net cash benefit arising from this claim will be approximately 16m.

HMV's half-year loss before tax narrowed to 24.9m from 27.5m a year earlier. The entertainment media retailer's total sales in the 6 months 24 October were up 5.6% to 797m from 754.5m at the interim stage in 2008, but this masked a 2.1% decline in like for like sales that was primarily caused by weak trading at Waterstone's, its book selling arm.

HSBC Infrastructure, the trust that invests in infrastructure projects, is to pump 2.1m in to the Helicopter Training Facility private finance initiative (PFI) project.

Road and infrastructure support contractor Mouchel has seen its order book hold steady at 2bn and remains on track to met its expectations for this year to July 2010, even though the situation in Dubai has 'clearly deteriorated'.

Good demand at its signal business will mean LED sensor specialist Dialight 'will exceed its previous earnings expectations' this year.

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Commodities: Gold and Oil continue to look heavy as dollar recovers11-12-2009 16:10
Gold and oil continue to remain under pressure after US retail sales came in well above expectations. This has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates sooner rather than later.

Gold has broken below its previous lows for this week, and support area around $1,117.30, and looks set to test the longer term support line around the $1,070 area.

Crude Oil also continues to look heavy, dropping below $70 to touch its lowest levels for over 2 months, and could well be set to test the 25th September lows at $65.05.

Technical Analysis: Gold breaks back above $1,142 11-01-2010 17:10

Last Friday's jobs data has taken the legs out of the recent US dollar rally and sent Gold back higher again, after its recent losses from its November highs of $1,226.50.

The positive economic news out of China has also led to a surge in commodity prices and a decline in the dollar, so the greenback is suffering on both fronts at the moment as risk appetite returns to the market.



The break back above the resistance highs at $1,142 should re-target the highs of last year. The key support level on the downside remains the lows around $1,070. This level also corresponds to around a 38.2 retracement of the move up from the $803 2009 lows, to the highs in November at $1,126.50.

Nothing has changed with respect to the overall Gold picture and the concerns and robustness of the US dollar as a reserve currency.

Too many central banks remain overly exposed to the greenback and there is still plenty of desire to diversify some of their counterparty risk away from US assets into commodities like Copper, Gold and Platinum.

The US dollar index can still rise along with commodity prices because the dollar index is only a representation of the dollar's value against six other currencies.

At some point Gold and the dollar could well de-couple and both push higher into 2010.

Vedanta trading statement

Gold Heads for Second Monthly Drop as Dollars Gain Cuts Demand
By Jae Hur

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Gold declined for a fourth day, heading for its second monthly decline, as the dollars advance reduced the metals appeal.

Bullion fell as much as 0.5 percent to $1,081.80 an ounce compared with last months close of $1,096.95. The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against six major counterparts, rose for a fourth day to a five-month high.

Further gains in the U.S. dollar would keep gold prices on the defensive, said Toby Hassall, an analyst with CWA Global Markets Pty Ltd. in Sydney. Prices are finding support at the level of Decembers lows.

Gold for immediate delivery fell $4.30 to $1,082.80 an ounce at 2:08 p.m. in Tokyo after touching $1,073.85 yesterday, the lowest level since Nov. 3. Last month, the metal traded as low as $1,074.88

Bullion for April delivery, the most widely held futures contract, dropped 0.2 percent to $1,082.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The euro is trading at its weakest level in more than six months against the dollar before a report today that economists said will show Europes unemployment rate climbed to the highest in more than 11 years. The 16-nation currency also fell on speculation budget crises in Greece and Portugal will worsen.

The dollar last traded at $1.3933 per euro after earlier reaching $1.3913, the strongest since July 14. The Dollar Index rose for a fourth day to 79.078 after touching 79.156, the highest level since Aug. 19.

Under Pressure

The dollar is the natural beneficiary of euro-zone uncertainty, according to Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank Ltd. in London. Commodities prices, especially gold, may come under pressure, he said.

Eleven of 22 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said that bullion would decline next week. Seven forecast higher prices and four were neutral.

Among other precious metals, silver for immediate delivery eased 0.1 percent to $16.2325 an ounce after touching $15.9925 yesterday, the lowest level since Oct. 2. Palladium dropped 0.8 percent to $416.80 an ounce, while spot platinum was little changed at $1,511.13 an ounce.

The results season for mining companies remains in full flow with Xstrata, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto all set to give fourth quarter updates next week.

Credit Suisse is forecasting a 31% year on year fall in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for Swiss-headquartered miner Xstrata and a 30% fall in net income, due to lower commodity prices, especially in the thermal coal and ferrochrome markets.

Underlying earnings per share (EPS) are tipped by the Swiss bank to be $1, slightly below the market consensus of $1.03.

We expect the company to provide an upbeat outlook on growth prospects. Several projects received approval in December 09 and we expect several more to follow this year, Credit Suisse said. Factoring in the most probable unapproved projects we could see volumes in the key copper and thermal coal divisions increase by 58% and 42% respectively over the next five years, the bank predicts.

Xstrata is issuing its results on Monday.

U.S. gold hits 3-month low on risk-averse selling
Fri Feb 5, 2010 3:19pm EST
NEW YORK, Feb 5 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures fell to their
lowest in more than three months on Friday, ending the week 2
percent lower, as economic uncertainties led to heavy selling
in gold and other investments perceived as riskier.

GOLD
* April GCJ0 settles down $10.20 at $1,052.80 an ounce on COMEX division of NYMEX.
* Range $1,069.40 to $1,044.50 -- weakest since Oct. 30.
* April was about 2 percent lower from last Friday's close
at $1,083.80.
* Gold pressured as euro fell below key $1.37, the lowest
level since May. [USD/]
* CitiFX recommends exiting short euro/dollar trade as
heavy support seen at $1.36 area.
* Rise in sovereign risk in euro-zone countries to increase
risk aversion, weighing heavily on gold - James Steel of HSBC.
* April briefly traded higher after U.S. Jan. jobs report.
* Payrolls fell unexpectedly in January, but unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to a five-month low. [ID:nN04115255]
* Sell-off may be buying opportunity as institutional players allocating more to gold in long term - HSBC's Steel.
* Oil briefly dropped below $70 a barrel on broad-based
commodities weakness
* Gold-to-oil ratio at 14.86, against 14.52 in the previous
session.
* COMEX estimated final volume at 224,472 contracts.
* Spot gold XAU= at $1,065.10 at 3:07 p.m. EST (2007
GMT), against $1,062.60 in late New York business.
* London afternoon gold fix XAUFIX= at $1,058. SILVER
* March SIH0 ends down 52 cents, or 3.4 percent, at
$14.83 an ounce, tracking gold.
* Range $15.380 to $14.650 - lowest since September.
* COMEX estimated final volume at 59,980 lots.
* Spot silver XAG= at $15.03 an ounce, compared with $15.23 late in the previous session in New York.
* London silver XAGFIX= afternoon fix at $15.17 an ounce.
PLATINUM
* April PLJ0 finishes down $40.20, or 2.7 percent, at $1,475.10 an ounce as weaker economic sentiment hurts industrial metals.
* Spot platinum XPT= at $1,476 an ounce. PALLADIUM
* March palladium PAH0 closes down $10.15, or 2.5 percent, at $398.25 an ounce, taking the lead from platinum.
* Spot palladium XPD= at $395.50 an ounce.

Close Change Pct 2009 YTD

Chg Close % Chg
US gold GCJ0 1052.80 -10.2 -1.0 1096.20 -4.0
US silver SIH0 14.830 -0.520 -3.4 16.845 -12.0
US platinum PLJ0 1475.10 -40.20 -2.7 1471.00 0.3
US palladium PAH0 398.25 -10.15 -2.5 408.85 -2.6

Prices at 2:39 p.m. EST (1939 GMT)

Gold XAU= 1061.30 -1.30 -0.1 1096.35 -3.2
Silver XAG= 14.90 -0.33 -2.2 16.84 -11.5
Platinum XPT= 1469.00 -30.50 -2.0 1465.50 0.2
Palladium XPD= 394.50 -12.000 -3.0 405.50 -2.7
Gold Fix XAUFIX= 1058.00 5.75 0.5 1104 -4.2
Silver Fix XAGFIX= 15.17 -96.00 -6.0 16.99 -10.7
Platinum Fix XPTFIX= 1475.00 2.00 0.1 1466 0.6
Palladium Fix XPDFIX= 395.00 8.00 2.1 402 -1.7
(Reporting by Frank Tang; Editing by Walter Bagley)

Analysts expected trade to quiet down in the lead up to the Chinese new
year holiday that will close the Chinese market for a week from Feb. 14. Some analysts were confident the longer-term outlook for base metals demand
and prices remained strong. "The global economic recovery is still on track, Chinese demand is still
very robust, policy makers are in no rush to reduce liquidity, and many base
metals are still facing structural supply shortages," Leon Westgate, an analyst
at Standard Bank, said in a note. But top global miner BHP Billiton (BHP.AX) signaled caution over a
sustained global recovery and held off from a share buyback after reporting its
weakest first-half profit in four years. [ID:nSGE61800Z] Aluminum MAL3 ended at $2,030, down from $2,056. Stocks of aluminum stand near 4.6 million tonnes, but fell 5,750 tonnes to
continue a recent trend of drops that has brought stocks away from a record
high above the 4.6 million-tonne level. Zinc MZN3 closed at $2,114 from $2,104 and battery material lead MPB3
ended at $2,045 from $2,032.5. Tin MSN3 closed at $15,700 from $15,500 and nickel MNI3 at $17,710 from
$17,550.

BHP, China Agree 40% Provisional Ore Price Gain, Analyst Says
By Bloomberg News

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd., the worlds biggest mining company, and some Chinese steelmakers have agreed to a provisional 40 percent increase in contract iron-ore prices, said UC361.com analyst Hu Kai, citing the mills.

Final benchmark contract-price agreements for the year may still be settled first by Japanese mills and the ore producers, Hu said in a phone interview, without naming any of the mills. Some of the annual Chinese contracts start from Jan. 1, he said.

Talks to set 2010 benchmark prices have begun between mills and suppliers including BHP and Rio Tinto Group, the China Iron & Steel Association said this week. Baosteel Group Corp. and Rio have named new negotiators, signaling the mills and miners want to start afresh after failing to agree on prices last year.

The steelmakers were asked either to accept the provisional price gain, or indexed pricing, UC361.coms Hu said. BHP said last month it sold 46 percent of its first-half ore cargoes from Western Australia through a mix of cash, quarterly and index pricing.
Full story.

Gold Falls, Paring Weekly Gain, as Dollar Gains on Greece Woes
By Kim Kyoungwha

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold declined, paring its first weekly advance in five, on speculation the dollar will strengthen against major global currencies as the European Union struggles with fiscal deficits in member states.

Gold for immediate delivery slipped 0.5 percent to $1,090.52 an ounce at 1:45 p.m. in Singapore, after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday. The metal has gained 2.3 percent this week. The euro traded near a one-week low against the dollar after the EU stopped short of offering concrete steps to help Greece following a summit yesterday.

Gold remains in a tight temporary trading range, with price downside limited by golds ongoing attraction in the face of economic uncertainty, said Gavin Wendt, Sydney-based senior resource analyst with Mine Life Pty Ltd. On the other hand, immediate upside is limited by some degree of strength in the U.S. dollar.

The euro weakened as statements by European leaders left open how the EU would respond to the threat to the currency from budget deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal.

The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenbacks strength, gained as much as 0.2 percent to 80.149 today.

Nine of 22 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 41 percent, said bullion would rise next week. Six forecast lower prices and seven were neutral.

While the inverse relationship between the dollar and the gold price has dominated the market over the past few weeks, gold prices are expected to remain well supported, Ben Westmore, an analyst with National Bank of Australia, wrote in a note to clients. A rise in jewelry consumption and further central bank purchases of gold on price moderation are expected, he wrote.

Silver for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent to $15.69 an ounce, platinum slid 0.3 percent to $1,525.25 an ounce and palladium decreased 0.6 percent to $419.88 an ounce.

Gold Falls, Paring Weekly Gain, as Dollar Gains on Greece Woes
By Kim Kyoungwha

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold declined, paring its first weekly advance in five, on speculation the dollar will strengthen against major global currencies as the European Union struggles with fiscal deficits in member states.

Gold for immediate delivery slipped 0.5 percent to $1,090.52 an ounce at 1:45 p.m. in Singapore, after jumping 2.2 percent yesterday. The metal has gained 2.3 percent this week. The euro traded near a one-week low against the dollar after the EU stopped short of offering concrete steps to help Greece following a summit yesterday.

Gold remains in a tight temporary trading range, with price downside limited by golds ongoing attraction in the face of economic uncertainty, said Gavin Wendt, Sydney-based senior resource analyst with Mine Life Pty Ltd. On the other hand, immediate upside is limited by some degree of strength in the U.S. dollar.

The euro weakened as statements by European leaders left open how the EU would respond to the threat to the currency from budget deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal.

The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenbacks strength, gained as much as 0.2 percent to 80.149 today.

Nine of 22 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 41 percent, said bullion would rise next week. Six forecast lower prices and seven were neutral.

While the inverse relationship between the dollar and the gold price has dominated the market over the past few weeks, gold prices are expected to remain well supported, Ben Westmore, an analyst with National Bank of Australia, wrote in a note to clients. A rise in jewelry consumption and further central bank purchases of gold on price moderation are expected, he wrote.

Silver for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent to $15.69 an ounce, platinum slid 0.3 percent to $1,525.25 an ounce and palladium decreased 0.6 percent to $419.88 an ounce.

EMU - you have an e-mail

Anglo May Resume Dividend Payment After Asset Sales (Update1)

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Anglo American Plc may announce a resumption of dividends as early as tomorrow after agreeing to sell part of its Tarmac construction materials unit for $400 million, Credit Suisse Group AG and Liberum Capital Ltd. said.

Anglo, which reports full-year results tomorrow at 7 a.m. in London, scrapped the payout a year ago as commodity prices plunged. The companys shares tumbled 17 percent, the biggest slump in four months, on Feb. 20, the day the suspension was announced. Rival London-listed mining companies Rio Tinto Group and Xstrata Plc restored their dividends last week.

The miner will be keen to restart the dividend as soon as possible, particularly given how badly the dividend cut was taken by investors last year, Credit Suisse analysts Michael Shillaker and Liam Fitzpatrick wrote yesterday in a note. The London-based analysts have an outperform rating on Anglo.

Anglos Chief Executive Officer Cynthia Carroll, who rejected a proposed bid for the company from Switzerlands Xstrata last year, has been trying to regain investors confidence and curb debt with a planned $2 billion in savings from job and cost cuts. Her suspension of dividend payments was the first by the company since World War II.

The company, with stakes in the worlds biggest platinum and diamond producers, said Feb. 16 it will sell parts of its building aggregates unit to Frances Vinci SA and buyout fund Innova/4 LP. Commodity prices rose last year with copper and zinc, mined by Anglo, doubling on the London Metal Exchange.

Diamonds and Platinum

A token dividend is affordable and justifiable, said Liberum Capital, a London-based investment bank, in a note yesterday. The market is not anticipating a dividend restart though we believe Anglo could surprise the market.

Anglo American wont declare a dividend until August 2011, according to forecasts and analysis Bloomberg compiled. Analysts at UBS AG and Macquarie Group said the company wont likely announce a resumption tomorrow. Anglo Americans London-based spokesman James Wyatt-Tilby declined to comment.

Rio and Xstrata revived dividends after selling shares through rights offers and as iron ore and coal prices rose, while Anglo American gets revenue from diamonds and platinum that advanced at a slower pace, according to Henk Groenewald, an analyst at Cape Town-based Coronation Fund Managers Ltd.

Anglo still has a lot of debt, he said. The company, with net debt of $11.3 billion as of June 30, controls Anglo Platinum Ltd., the biggest maker of the precious metal, and holds 45 percent of De Beers, the largest diamond producer.

Anglos Pledge

The parent will report so-called underlying profit fell 54 percent to $1.99 a share in 2009, according to the median of 24 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Xstrata said last week that its full-year net income declined 41 percent, while Rio posted a 33 percent increase.

Anglo has also pledged to take up its full allocations in a 12.5 billion-rand ($1.6 billion) rights offer by Anglo Platinum and a $1 billion offer by De Beers.

Shares of Anglo have dropped 10 percent so far this year in London Stock Exchange trading, while Xstrata is down 4 percent and Rio has climbed 0.7 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd., the worlds largest mining company, is down 0.6 percent.

More than any other company, more than Rio, the canceling of the dividend went down really badly, and theyve come under a lot of pressure since, said Tom Gidley-Kitchin, an analyst with Charles Stanley Group Plc in London.

Platinum Targets 2-Year High After Declines: Technical Analysis
By Glenys Sim

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum may rally to $2,000 an ounce, presenting a good buying opportunity after a recent drop, Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.

If the metal closes at more than $1,555 an ounce at the end of a month, the bullish momentum should increase, according to a note yesterday from Nicole Elliott, London-based senior technical analyst at Mizuho.

Having almost met our medium-term target in the $1,700 area, spot platinum has slipped from the 61 percent Fibonacci resistance, she wrote. This is good news because it had become terribly overbought. So-called resistance prices may identify clusters of sell orders.

Platinum, which has lost 2 percent this month, reached a record $2,301.50 an ounce on March 4, 2008, and last traded above $2,000 an ounce in July 2008. The precious metal was at $1,514.25 an ounce at 9:03 a.m. in Singapore.

The corrective dip was stemmed by the 26-week moving average but we cannot rule out another deeper leg lower towards $1,400, maybe $1,340, Elliott wrote. This is seen as a good buying opportunity, especially if channel support holds.

Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break of a level of support indicates a price may move to the next level. A failure indicates a trend may stall. Other key Fibonacci levels include 38.2 percent and 50 percent.

METALS-Copper at 3-week high as economic prospects shine
Thu Feb 18, 2010 4:06pm EST
Chris Kelly and Maytaal Angel NEW YORK/LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) -
Copper climbed to its
highest level in three weeks on Thursday, after strong regional
manufacturing data in the United States pointed to brighter
economic prospects and offset labor market concerns and higher
producer inflation. Copper for March delivery on the New York Mercantile
Exchange's COMEX division rose 4.60 cents, or 1.4 percent, to
settle at $3.2855 per lb, its highest level on a closing basis
since Jan. 26. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), benchmark copper for
three-months delivery peaked at $7,336, its highest since Jan. 27,
and was last quoted at $7,260/7,265 a tonne from a close of $7,130
on Wednesday. "You have to take copper as a leader," said Frank McGhee, head
precious metals trader with Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in
Chicago. "It is so sensitive to slow-downs and to pickups, and
stock builds and stock drawdowns, that I think it is trying to
tell you that there is going to be a (economic) uptick." That economic optimism was reflected in two reports showing
stronger gains in factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region
and a tenth straight monthly rise in a gauge of the economy's
prospects. But separate data, showing a surge in weekly U.S. jobless
claims and a faster-than-expected rise in U.S. January producer
prices tempered the gains. Expectations of increased Chinese demand offered additional
underpinnings for copper prices, analysts said. Chinese markets are closed this week for Lunar New Year
holidays, but analysts expect demand from the world's top copper
consumer will remain robust in the coming weeks. "Demand is looking good. Everyone's bullish in the long run,"
said VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov. "Demand will be good in the second quarter, when the Chinese
come back to the market," he said, adding Chinese demand
traditionally strengthens in weeks after the New Year holidays. EARMARKED Tempering upbeat sentiment, LME copper stocks rose 5,175
tonnes to 555,075, the highest since October 2003. Canceled
warrants -- material earmarked for delivery out of warehouses --
fell to 15,250 tonnes from 16,900 the previous day. Prices of copper and other metals have been gaining traction
in recent weeks thanks to the rise in canceled warrants, which
participants believe indicates a pickup in real demand outside
China. In other metals, aluminum, used in transport and packaging,
closed at $2,114 a tonne from $2,122. LME aluminum stocks fell 3,900 tonnes to total 4.6 million
tonnes - near record levels, while canceled warrants fell to
289,425 tonnes from 293,175 tonnes. However, canceled warrants remain near their highest ever
levels, indicating demand is increasing. Zinc traded at $2,310 a tonne from $2,300, while battery
material lead traded at $2,319 from $2,290. Zinc stocks fell 75 tonnes to 541,300 tonnes, but the fall did
little to combat the previous day's rise of nearly 40,000 tonnes,
which traders believe was sparked in part by tightness around the
May prompt date. Tin traded at $17,050 a tonne from $16,750, and nickel closed
at $20,450 from $20,140. The metal used for galvanizing steel
earlier hit $20,600, marking a six-month high for a third
consecutive day.

Copper Futures Decline After U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell the most in almost three weeks after a report showed that confidence among U.S. consumers slid to the lowest level since April, a sign that the recovery in the worlds largest economy may be slow.

The Conference Boards gauge of consumer sentiment declined to 46 in February, the business-backed group said. Thats beneath the lowest forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 68 economists. Copper dropped 8.8 percent last month on concern that a slowing economic rebound will curb demand for the metal used in pipes and wires.

This bad consumer-confidence report is a great excuse for people to take their money off the table and wait to see how things shake out, said Michael K. Smith, the president of T&K Futures & Options in Port St. Lucie, Florida. Its definitely causing concern.

Copper futures for May delivery sank 9.4 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $3.2345 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchanges Comex unit. That marks the biggest decline for a most-active contract since Feb. 4.

Rio Tinto Group, the worlds third-largest mining company, said the removal of government stimulus packages and slowing consumer spending may dent demand for metals in the second half of the year.

There are plenty of negative forces out there, Vivek Tulpule, the chief economist for London-based Rio, said in an interview.

Copper prices also dropped as the dollar gained, reducing demand for commodities as alternative assets. The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency measure of the greenbacks strength, rose as much as 0.6 percent.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for three-month delivery fell 2.7 percent to $7,132 a metric ton ($3.24 a pound). Aluminum, nickel, tin, lead and zinc prices also declined.

Stocks, Copper, Oil Fall on Greek Debt Risk, U.S. Economic Data
By Nick Baker

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks and commodities fell and the euro weakened as Moodys Investors Service said it may cut Greeces rating and U.S. employment and durable-goods orders missed forecasts. German two-year yields fell to a record low.

The Standard & Poors 500 Index dropped 1.4 percent at 11:13 a.m. in New York for the biggest loss in three weeks. The MSCI World Index of shares in 23 developed nations slumped 1.5 percent. Copper and oil retreated in New York. The euro weakened against the yen, which strengthened against the 16 most-traded currencies. The yield premium on Greek 10-year bonds versus German debt widened to the most since Feb. 8.

The warning from Moodys, a day after S&Ps statement that it may downgrade Greek debt, rattled investors who drove the euro down more than 8 percent against the yen in 2010 on concern Greeces fiscal woes may spread through Europe. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testifies to Congress today after saying yesterday that the U.S. economy is in a nascent recovery and requires low interest rates to stoke demand.

Signs of discomfort with sovereign debt are surfacing, with investors putting upward pressure on interest rates in developed nations in Europe, Tony Crescenzi, a strategist and fund manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, wrote in a research note.

Default Risk

The cost of insuring against default on Greek government debt rose for a fourth day on concern ratings downgrades will cut the nations access to European Central Bank funding. Credit-default swaps on Greece jumped 10 basis points to 394, the highest in more than two weeks, according to CMA DataVision prices at 2:45 p.m. in London.

The premium that investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds over German debt widened 14 basis points to 353 basis points, quadruple the average over the past five years.

Greece has to repay more than 20 billion euros ($27 billion) of maturing bonds and bills by the end of May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A Moodys downgrade may make it harder for the nations banks to fund themselves by making Greek government debt ineligible as collateral for European Central Bank loans.

The U.S. Labor Department said initial jobless applications rose by 22,000 to 496,000 in the week ended Feb. 20, the highest level in three months. Economists forecast a decline to 460,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. In a separate report, the Commerce Department said orders for U.S. durable goods excluding transportation equipment fell 0.6 percent in January, the most since August and compared with the median economist projection for a 1 percent increase.

Caterpillar, UPS

General Electric Co., Caterpillar Inc. and United Parcel Service Inc. led declines in U.S. industrial companies, while Alcoa Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. retreated with commodity prices. Coca-Cola Co., the worlds largest soda maker, lost 3.4 percent after agreeing to buy Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.s North American bottling division. GameStop Corp. lost 8 percent after its chief financial officer quit to join Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

Europes Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 1.6 percent. Tenaris SA led declines in basic-resource shares, losing 11 percent in Italy. British American Tobacco Plc, Europes second- largest cigarette maker, dropped 2.4 percent after reporting net income that missed forecasts.

Copper futures slipped 1.6 percent in New York, while crude oil slumped 2.5 percent.

One-Year High

The yen climbed to a one-year high against the euro as concern Greeces credit ratings may be downgraded spurred investors to unwind positions in riskier assets. The yen appreciated 1.7 percent to 120.11 per euro from 122.03 yen yesterday. It touched 119.76, the first time the currency has fallen below the 120 yen level since Feb. 24, 2009.

Turkish stocks fell, heading for the biggest weekly loss since November 2008, after talks between the army and government today failed to ease political tensions over an alleged coup plot. The main ISE National 100 index lost 1.9 percent after gaining 2 percent earlier. The lira lost 1 percent.

Investors are betting political turmoil will weaken Turkeys lira more than any other currency as the arrest about 50 army officers over an alleged coup plot raises tension between the government and the military. One-month put options that grant the right to sell the lira against the dollar have surged to a 3.4 percentage-point premium over equivalent call options to buy the currency. The gap, known as the risk-reversal rate, widened from 2.25 percentage points a week ago and is the highest of 48 currencies on Bloomberg.

METALS-Copper buckles under dollar strength, China worries
Fri Mar 19, 2010 3:24pm
* LME copper stocks down nearly 30,000 T since March 1

* Nickel stocks at lowest since late December


By Marcy Nicholson and Pratima Desai

NEW YORK/LONDON, March 19 (Reuters) - Copper came under pressure on Friday as the dollar rose and investors worried about demand from China, the world's largest consumer of industrial metals.

Copper for May delivery HGK0 on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division reversed down 2.30 cents to close at $3.3725 per lb, moving from $3.3640 to $3.4110.

Benchmark copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange ended at $7,435 a tonne from $7,486 at the close on Thursday. The metal used in power and construction is up about 20 percent since early February.

The euro fell and was headed for its worst week since January as traders fretted whether Greece will secure euro-zone aid to tackle its debt crisis, while worries about Britain's economy hit sterling. [USD/]

A major risk for industrial metals is the extent and timing of fiscal tightening in China, which is said to account for more than 30 percent of global copper demand -- estimated this year at above 18 million tonnes.

For the next leg up, we do need concerns about China to be alleviated," said Max Layton, analyst at Macquarie.

"For people taking a longer term view there will be opportunities to start accumulating on any dips triggered by macroeconomic weakness."

"Copper is developing a very clearly defined line of overhead resistance, comes in right around the $3.4250 area," said Sterling Smith, analyst for brokers Country Hedging Inc in Minnesota, referring to the May contract trading on NYMEX.

"With the strong dollar today, copper did find a little bit of selling pressure."

Analysts say the copper market is looking at signs of stronger economic growth in the United States, the world's largest economy, and translating that into increased demand for industrial metals.

"There is more confidence that the economy is going to recover, so demand will outweigh supply," said Eugen Weinberg, commodities analyst at Commerzbank.

STAINLESS IMPROVEMENT

Stocks of copper in London Metal Exchange warehouses also helped boost the metal. They have fallen about 30,000 tonnes since March 1 to 522,975 -- the lowest since the middle of January.

"We continue to expect the market to retest all-time highs at some stage this year," VTB Capital said in a note.

Three-month nickel CMNI3 hit $22,900 a tonne, the highest since March 4. It ended at $22,450 a tonne compared with $22,760 at the close on Thursday.

Stocks of nickel in LME warehouses are down 8,724 tonnes since early February to 157,752 tonnes, a level last seen at the end of last year. Stainless steel mills account for about two-thirds of global nickel demand.

"This shift in inventory dynamic was a clear signal that the nickel market was in deficit," Barclays Capital said in a note. "Decline in stocks has been accompanied by reports of improving production levels in the global stainless steel sector."

Consultants Brook Hunt told Reuters in an interview on Thursday that the nickel market this year could see a 10,000 tonne deficit. The nickel market this year is estimated at around 1.4 million tonnes. [ID:ID:nLDE62H12Q]

Industry consultants CRU Group expects the nickel market to see a deficit for the first time in four years. [ID:nLDE62H1BU]

Steel material zinc CMZN3 ended at $2,295 a tonne from $2,333, battery material lead CMPB3 at $2,200 a tonne $2,245 and aluminium CMAL3 at $2,258 a tonne from $2,276.

Tin CMSN3 closed at $17,650 a tonne from Thursday's last bid at $17,790.

Midday Gold price 10.94$/oz

Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer, On Wednesday May 12, 2010, 5:20 pm
NEW YORK (AP) -- The price of gold reached a record high Wednesday as investors uneasy about the euro put their money and their trust into the metal.

Gold for June delivery jumped as high as $1,249.20 an ounce, nearly $22 above the previous record of $1,227.50 set Dec. 3. It later settled at $1,243.10, up $22.80 from Tuesday's close.

The gold rally is a sign that investors aren't completely convinced that weak European countries will be able to control their rising debts through cost-cutting. The doubts are persisting even though European leaders agreed earlier this week to a nearly $1 trillion bailout to support countries including Greece that are struggling to pay their debts.

The uncertainty has driven investors away from the euro, which is used by 16 European countries, and toward safer investments like gold. Analysts said the potential for other countries to be overwhelmed by debt has investors rethinking how much money they want to put into currencies in general.

"Clearly, gold has become the only reserve currency not backed by debt," said James DiGeorgia, publisher of GoldandEnergyAdvisor.com. DiGeorgia said gold could climb as high as $1,500 an ounce this year.

Gold tends to rise when investors are uneasy about risky investments, and so gold often gains as stocks fall. However, stocks continued to recover from last week's big drop, and that's a further sign that investors' unhappiness right now is with the euro. After a rally early Wednesday, the euro fell back against the dollar and is now hovering near 14-month lows.

The uneasiness with the euro has investors looking into the future rather than concentrating on short-term trades. George Gero, vice president at RBC Global Futures, said there are increasing signs of long-term investor interest in gold, including already strong trading volume for December gold futures.

Silver has also benefited from investors' search for safety. July silver touched a record high of $19.735 an ounce early in the day. It rose 36.9 cents to settle at $19.663 an ounce.

July platinum rose $46.50, or 2.7 percent to settle at $1,747.30 an ounce, while June palladium rose $15.25, or 2.9 percent, to $547.45 an ounce. Both metals have been rising lately on signs of economic strength in the U.S. and abroad. They are used in manufacturing, particularly by automakers.

Oil was one of the few commodities to drop Wednesday.

Benchmark crude for June delivery lost 72 cents to settle at $75.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the International Energy Agency cut its 2010 forecast for global demand in its latest monthly report.

Other energy contracts rose. June heating oil climbed 1.90 cents to settle at $2.1591 a gallon, and gasoline rose 1.52 cents to settle at $2.2104 a gallon. Natural gas gained 15.3 cents to settle at $4.284 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Grain and bean prices were mixed. Wheat dropped 1.75 cents to $4.915 a bushel, while corn rose 1.25 cents to $3.7825 a bushel. Soybeans fell half a cent to $9.655 a bushel.

NEW YORK Palladium and platinum prices fell sharply Wednesday as traders pulled out of the volatile contracts to raise cash as new trading curbs went into effect in Europe.

Palladium tumbled 9 percent and platinum 5 percent after Germany introduced strict restrictions on certain kinds of bearish bets on European debt and stocks.
Investors who had to exit those positions felt they could raise the money to cover those positions by selling palladium and platinum contracts.
So while the restrictions don't specifically curb trading in commodities themselves, they did negatively affect the market.
Palladium for June delivery sank $47.30, or 9.3 percent, to $459.70 an ounce. Platinum for July delivery tumbled $84.80, or 5 percent, to $1,605.70 an ounce.
June gold fell $21.50 to $1,193.10 an ounce, while silver for July delivery fell 76.4 cents to $18.115 an ounce. July copper fell 7.15 cents to $2.9595 a pound.
Benchmark crude for June delivery rose 46 cents to $69.87 a barrel during a volatile day on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It had dropped as low as $67.90, the lowest level since Sept. 30. The July contract fell 22 cents to $72.48 a barrel.
In June contracts, heating oil fell 1.63 cents to $1.9452 a gallon, and gasoline futures dropped 2.79 cents to $2.0152 a gallon. Natural gas fell 18.4 cents to settle at $4.158 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Wheat for July delivery rose 1.5 cent to $4.6925 a bushel;corn fell half a cent to $3.5925 a bushel. Soybeans fell 1 cent to $9.385 a bushel.

By Chris Kelly NEW YORK, July 16 (Reuters) - Copper fell to its lowest level
in about two weeks on Friday after a double-dose of data from the
United States raised fears of a double-dip recession in the
world's largest economy. "The problem I see with copper is right here in the United
States and in Europe," said Sterling Smith, an analyst for Country
Hedging Inc in St. Paul, Minnesota. "We have had a plethora of bad data over the last 10 days, or
so .... I am growing more of the opinion that if we are not
already in the midst of the double-dip, we are on the precipice,"
he said. Copper for September delivery HGU0 on the COMEX metals
division of the New York Mercantile Exchange plunged 8.25 cents,
or 2.7 percent, to finish at $2.9295 per lb, its lowest level on a
settlement basis since July 2. On the London Metal Exchange, benchmark copper CMCU3 shed
$195 to end at $6,485 per tonne. In after hours business, selling
momentum dragged it down further to $6,477 per tonne, a low dating
back to July 6. The metal used in power and construction has ranged between
$6,300 and $6,900 since the middle of June. Economic sentiment, already fragile from worse-than-expected
manufacturing data and dovish U.S. Federal Reserve minutes this
week, took another hit from data Friday showing U.S. consumer
prices fell for a third straight month in June and consumer
sentiment crumble in early July to its lowest level in 11 months.
[ID:nN1653074] "I think we have a situation here where copper, which is a
good leading indicator of the economy, is telling us that things
are not happy and not good," Country Hedging's Smith said. He added the market was still digesting Thursday figures from
top-consumer China, showing its annual gross domestic product
growth moderated to 10.3 percent from 11.9 percent in the first
quarter. [ID:nTOE66D06L] DEMAND SCEPTICISM The euro EUR= pulled back from a two-month high versus a
broadly weaker dollar, while the dollar index .DXY erased
earlier losses and moved into positive territory later in the
session. [USD/] Despite its usual tendency to boost dollar-denominated assets
when under selling pressure, the dollar's earlier weakness did
little to stem market declines. "You can see in other times when you'd have the same magnitude
of a euro rally, it would have had much more of an impact ... we
are just not seeing the speculative demand push into the market,"
one COMEX trader said. "There is questionable economic conditions, and traders are
looking at these markets with some scepticism on the demand side,"
he said. Three-month aluminum CMAL3 was last bid at $1,978/$1,979 a
tonne from $2,018 at the close on Thursday. Zinc CMZN3 slipped
$13 to end at $1,797, tin CMSN3 sank $200 to $17,750, and lead
CMBP3 ended $1,770 a tonne from Thursday's last bid at $1,798. Nickel CMNI3 shed $450 to finish at $18,950 per tonne.