Thought it about time we had a separate thread for currency plays.

Charts Currently Removed - New Ones To Follow Soon

Good Reading If You Like FX
http://www.mizuhobank.com/fin_info/exchange.html

Current positions running moved to title.

Good thread Shortie , i've had a go at trading forex over the years ,joined various trading sites as well , i found it more economical to sit ripping up £20 notes ,another form of trading i was no good at (like indices) ... I shall watch with interest ...

LONDON, May 16 (Reuters) - Sterling closed in on its biggest weekly fall against the dollar in six weeks on Friday, still feeling the negative effects of a shift in expectations on when the Bank of England will raise interest rates. Traders widely expect the BoE to be the first major central bank to raise rates, probably early next year. But its quarterly inflation report and accompanying remarks by Governor Mark Carney earlier this week suggested it may not move quite as soon as many had anticipated. The pound fought off further downward pressure on Friday, however, holding its ground against the two major global currencies. Weaker-than-expected U.S. and euro zone data the previous day made the UK economy look better by comparison. "We think sterling is topping out at the $1.70 level against the dollar. It might make another test of $1.70 in the very near term, but we don't think it will make a lasting break above," said Alvin Tan, senior currency strategist at Societe Generale in London. "But we think sterling will continue to do well against the euro," Tan said. "The policy divergence between the UK and euro area is much more stark. As we move forward, that difference will become even greater." In early trade in London on Friday, sterling was flat on the day against the dollar at $1.6790 GBP=D4 and at 81.63 pence to the euro EURGBP= . The pound is down a third of one percent against the dollar this week, its biggest weekly decline in six. On a trade-weighted basis against a basket of major currencies, sterling was down around a quarter of one percent on the week, the biggest weekly fall in two months. The magnitude of the weekly declines is relatively small, however. They also come after a rally in recent months that took sterling to a five-year high against the dollar and 16-month peak against the euro. Tan pointed out that implied one-month volatility in sterling, the rate of expected change in its price over the coming month, is historically low and even lower relative to the dollar and euro. One-month sterling volatility is less than 5 percent GBP1MO= , and is more than 6 percent in euro/dollar EUR1MO= and dollar/yen JPY1MO= . Few in the market doubt that the BoE and European Central Bank are on different policy paths. The BoE's next step likely to be a rate hike; the ECB is preparing the ground to ease policy next month. That points to a lower euro/sterling rate, says Tan and analysts at BNP Paribas, who recommend selling the euro at 81.40 pence to target 78.00 pence. "We doubt that the fall in UK rates following the inflation report will last long," they said in a note on Friday, predicting that the first rate hike could even come later this year.

15/05/2014 GBP/JPY short 170.68 closed at 170.46 for +22pts.

NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - The dollar held steady against major currencies on Friday as selling of the currency faded with benchmark U.S. yields stabilizing at their lowest levels in six months, although the greenback faces further weakness if yields resume their decline. The dollar pared earlier losses against the yen and euro after a stronger-than-expected report on U.S. housing construction but is still on track for its biggest weekly losses since early April. "Falling yields have been problematic for the dollar," said Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. The drop in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries yields came in the face of encouraging domestic economic data in recent weeks. On Friday, the government said housing starts rose 13.2 percent to 1.07 million annualized units in April, the strongest level since November 2013. ID:nL1N0O20H1 The bond market rally has confounded analysts and traders who reckoned it will eventually peter out and the dollar will rebound from current levels. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR were last at 2.516 percent after hitting a six-month low of 2.473 percent on Thursday. The 10-year yield is set to fall nearly 11 basis points this week. US/ The dollar traded at 101.55 yen JPY= , above a two-month low of 101.31 yen set on Thursday. Chart support for the dollar lies at 101.20 yen, close to some intraday lows touched in March and the dollar's 200-day moving average. The greenback was little changed against the euro, trading at $1.3715 EUR= after falling to $1.3648 on Thursday, its lowest since late February. The euro was down about 0.5 percent for the week against the dollar, putting it on track for its second straight weekly decline. Against the yen, the euro was flat at 139.17 yen EURJPY=R after hitting a three-month low of 138.77 yen earlier. Disappointing euro zone growth figures on Thursday heightened expectations the European Central Bank will embark on more stimulus at its June policy meeting, and some investors are betting that the euro could grind lower in coming weeks. Traders also pointed to funds moving to safety after a sell-off in Greek bonds halted a rally in debt of weaker euro zone members. The sell-off in peripheral bonds, if it gathered pace, was likely to hurt the euro, traders said. The yield on 10-year Greek bonds GR10YT=RR edged up 2 basis points to 6.851 percent, its highest since late March. "We have a lot of volatility in Europe especially the last two days. I find it hard for the euro to rally from here," Franulovich said. The implied one-month euro/dollar volatility EUR1MO= , the expected price swings over the coming month, has risen this week from 7-year lows to 5.8 percent on Friday.

Hey I like this thead. Well done Shortie.

Staring us in the face.

Briiliant idea although it should have been obvious.

Ill take part in about 2 years if im still alive. Going for my 5th mill appartment block from sept.

Lovely canal side property.

Cheers and well done Shortie.

16/05/2014 EUR/GBP short 0.81614 closed at 0.81440 for +17.4pts

Will carry Cable over the weekend.

Thanks for the comments GF and Jimmy

Is it better to place current positions in the header or just post normally as I make and close trades? I'm now thinking to just post normally will make the thread easier to follow, that is if anyone decides to follow the thread anyway..

Post normally Shortie , like you do with FTSE trades , i'm sure many will follow this thread .

LONDON, May 19 (Reuters) - Sterling eased on Monday, on growing talk the Bank of England will step in to cool the UK housing market, which would allow the central bank to keep interest rates lower for longer to sustain recovery elsewhere in the economy. BoE Governor Mark Carney at the weekend gave his strongest warning to date about the risks of a housing bubble and said the central bank was looking at new measures to control mortgage lending in a housing market which is short of supply. ID:nL6N0O405D Britain's housing market has made a swift recovery, with prices up about 10 percent in the past 12 months. That has put the spotlight on the BoE's ability to prevent a bubble forming without raising rates sooner than it was planning for fear of derailing the recovery in the wider economy. Speculation is widespread that the BoE's Financial Policy Committee could tighten mortgage lending rules when it meets on June 17. ID:nL6N0NO2CD That will ease the pressure on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates and could hurt sterling in the short run. ID:nL6N0NZ4XY Currently, traders are pricing in the chance of a rate rise in the first quarter of 2015. Sterling slipped against a struggling dollar, trading at $1.6813, well below its recent near-five-year highs of $1.6997 GBP=D4 . It was down against the euro with the single European currency up 0.1 percent at 81.55 pence EURGBP=D4 . "We maintain a tactical short sterling/dollar position," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note. "In the $1.6650/30 area, we would look to switch back to bullish strategies." Talk that a proposed merger between Britain's AstraZeneca AZN.L and U.S. drugmaker Pfizer PFE.N might not go through was also weighing on the currency. Completion of the merger would mean Pfizer having to buy pounds to pay British shareholders, hopes of which had supported the pound in the past few weeks. ID:nL6N0O413J DATA AND BOE MINUTES EYED Minutes from the MPC's latest meeting and April CPI inflation data are due in the coming week. "Sterling bulls are hoping that MPC hawks including (Martin) Weale may start voting to increase the BoE's base rate," said Mansoor Mohiuddin, head of currency strategy at UBS. "The minutes will be closely followed to see if all nine MPC members continued to vote for unchanged policy. But the UK data isn't showing inflation picking up, despite the strength of the economic recovery." April inflation data is due on Tuesday. Annual inflation is expected to rise to 1.7 percent from 1.6 percent a month earlier, but still well below the BoE's target of 2 percent. A lower-than-expected number will add to expectations that the BoE will keep rates low. ECONGB Last week the central bank's quarterly inflation report and accompanying remarks by Governor Carney suggested a rate hike may not happen quite as soon as many had anticipated. Still, the UK economic picture painted by recent data was brighter than that of the euro zone and United States, analysts said, making the pound attractive whenever it retreats.

LONDON, May 19 (Reuters) - The dollar slid to its weakest against the yen in more than three months on Monday as expectations of higher U.S. interest rates faded. The pound faced pressure from signs a major merger will fail. The yen's break past 101.20 yen per dollar JPY=EBS was the first time since November that it has traded stronger than its 200-day moving average. In nominal terms, it is the strongest since early February. That reflected both a dip in U.S. treasury yields in the past week and the dollar's broader failure to deliver the strength many had expected this year. But dealers said there were options barriers around 101.00 and talk of official buyers in Japan around 100.80 yen. That will block any further push before a two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan starts on Tuesday, they said. "There does seem to be a lot of daylight above these levels, but around here I've gone into wait-and-see mode," said one London-based currency dealer. "I'm not quite sure if the market has the energy at the moment to follow through on these kinds of moves. There do seem to be bids around 100.80/100.75 and we have the BoJ meeting coming up as well." The yen reached as high as 101.10 in morning trade in Europe before steadying. "The chief reason is the slide in U.S. 10-year yields," said Alvin Tann, a currency strategist with Societe Generale in London. "I wouldn't be surprised if we got down to levels of 100 to 100.5." It has been a choppy couple of weeks for major currency markets, hamstrung this year by a lack of clear differentiation between the economic stories of Japan, Europe and the United States. Growth is now moving at different rates, although official borrowing costs in all three remain near rock bottom. Signs the European Central Bank is preparing to loosen monetary conditions even further knocked the euro back last week. The single currency gained 0.2 percent on Monday to $1.3717 EUR= after a volatile session on Friday. Analysts from Credit Agricole said that the euro's resistance to further losses at the end of last week raised prospects it may head higher. "This week's focus will be on PMI releases, which we expect to confirm a trend of further improving growth conditions," they said in a morning note. "Under such conditions, position squaring-related EUR upside cannot be excluded. We advise against selling the single currency around the current levels. From a broader angle, however, we expect rallies to remain a sell." PFIZER BLOW Merger activity around a handful of Britain's biggest companies has been one factor helping sterling this year, and some dealers said AstraZeneca's AZN.L rejection of Pfizer's PFE.N latest bid could put some pressure on the UK currency. The pound's performance gave little sign of it by midday on Monday, however. Sterling, one of this year's better performers among the majors thanks to an improving economy, fell just 0.1 percent versus the euro and was almost unchanged against the dollar. GBP= EURGBP= "There are people talking about sales of the pound after this news," said one London-based currency dealer. "I don't know if that's because Pfizer had genuinely done some of this business or just because some people had been betting on it, but it would be a disappointment." Investors also await minutes later this week of the Federal Reserve's April 29-30 policy meeting, as well as a private survey on China's manufacturing sector for May. ECONUS ECONASIA The dollar index stood at 79.952 .DXY , down slightly on the day after notching up a modest 0.2 percent gain last week, when it touched a six-week peak of 80.338 on Thursday. Commodity currencies were sluggish as well with the Australian dollar just a touch lower at $0.9353 AUD=D4 following a flat week. Traders said the 94 U.S. cent level is still providing a cap for the Aussie for now.

LONDON, May 20 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a 16-month low against the British pound on Tuesday, hurt by widening short-term interest rates in favour of the pound before UK data that is likely to show an uptick in the inflation rate. ECONGB In contrast, the European Central Bank is grappling with falling price pressures and is likely to ease monetary policy next month. The euro fell to 81.25 pence EURGBP=D4 , its lowest since January 2013 and down 0.3 percent on the day. Bids from macro funds and corporates are cited at 81.10-8.15 pence. Sterling was up 0.2 percent at $1.6845 GBP=D4 .

Still holding GBP/USD short @ 1.67664 no other currency positions currently.

GBP/USD gone short @ 1.69116. With my existing play I now average 1.68390.

LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) - European stocks were under pressure on Wednesday, spooked by overnight falls on Wall Street, and the dollar fell against the yen as the Bank of Japan suggested the world's third largest economy needed no additional stimulus for now. A broad flight to quality helped push low-risk German Bund futures higher and weighed on lower-rated euro zone debt. Gold, also sought as a safe haven, held steady. Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 share index .FTEU3 was down 0.02 percent by 0815 GMT, extending the declines of recent days and taking it further away from the 2014 peak it hit last week. Rallies in European shares have paused on signs the economic recovery is stuttering. Elections to the European Parliament in coming days are being watched closely for any impact on reforms in several countries. "We have seen since last Thursday some corrective action in (low-rated euro zone bond) markets ahead of the EU elections. This can go further," said Matthias van der Jeugt, a fixed income strategist at KBC. The fall in European shares followed a 0.2 percent drop in Tokyo .T and a broad selloff on Wall Street .N , in which Caterpillar CAT.N dropped 3.6 percent after the heavy machinery company said "retail statistics" for the three months to April were down 13 percent. Tuesday's fall took losses in U.S. stocks to more than 1 percent since the Dow and the S&P 500 hit record closing highs on May 13 as investors seek confirmation the U.S. economy is accelerating. The BOJ kept monetary policy steady, as expected, and signalled its aggressive stimulus was helping broaden the economic recovery. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda was optimistic Japan was on course to meet the bank's inflation target. ID:nL3N0O70S6 Later on Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen speaks in New York and the U.S. central bank will release the minutes of its latest policy meeting. Most market participants do not expect any solid clues on when interest rates may rise. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR dipped in Europe to 2.51 percent, close to half-year lows. Comments from a senior Fed official that the central bank would be "relatively slow" in raising interest rates saw the dollar fall to a 3-1/2 month low against the yen JPY= FRX/ . "Kuroda's comments are lowering expectations of further BOJ stimulus and there is position squaring going on which is driving dollar/yen lower," said Manuel Oliveri FX strategist at Credit Agricole. "At the same time one has to be cautious about the FOMC minutes with Yellen also due to speak later in the day." EURO BOOST The drop in U.S. yields also helped the euro, which rose 0.15 percent to $1.3717 EUR= , pulling away from a 2-1/2 month low of $1.3648 hit last week on expectations the European Central Bank will ease monetary policy in June. German Bund futures FGBLc1 rose and cash 10-year yields DE10YT=TWEB edged lower, while yields on 10-year Spanish and Italian bonds each rose 9 basis points to 3.17 percent and 3.33 percent respectively. Weaker shares burnished gold's appeal as a hedge and the metal held steady below $1,300 an ounce. Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 edged up towards $110 a barrel as U.S. crude inventories fell and on renewed violence in OPEC producer Libya.

May 21 (Reuters) - Sterling jumped half a percent on Wednesday on the back of a strong batch of retail sales figures and minutes from the Bank of England's last meeting that showed some policymakers leaning closer to raising interest rates. The pound jumped to 16-month highs against the euro EURGBP=D4 in the run up to the figures and minutes' release at 0830 GMT and extended gains immediately afterwards to trade as strong as 81.03 pence per euro before steadying. Against the dollar GBP=D4 , it hit a two-week high of $1.6922 after the figures showed retail sales surged 6.9 percent year-on-year in April, far more than expected. Gilt futures FLGcv1 turned negative and were last down 20 ticks on the day. The yield spread between 10-year British and German government bonds rose by around 3 basis points to 128.5 basis points, its highest level this week.

Easy sell signal on the 15 min, lets not forget the FED minutes later today which could well knock Sterling off its perch.

GBP/USD 1.69116 closed @ 1.68803 +31.3pts

Maybe the sale was a little premature!

LONDON, May 27 (Reuters) - Sterling sank as much as 0.4 percent against the dollar and euro on Tuesday after weak lending data added to concerns over a European election win for the anti-EU UKIP party. Dealers said the pound, little traded during a UK and U.S. holiday on Monday, was also hurt by Pfizer's PFE.N formal confirmation on Monday that it was abandoning its attempt to buy AstraZeneca AZN.L for nearly 70 billion pounds ($118 billion) "There is a mix of factors behind this morning's move," said one senior London-based bank dealer. "Certainly the failure of the AstraZeneca deal is one element. We have also probably taken a knock from the election result." UKIP, which wants Britain to leave the European Union, took almost a third of the vote in the EU polls. That prompted the party's leader to target holding the balance of power after next year's UK parliamentary election, which polls suggest might produce no outright winner. Sterling has been one of the hottest picks among major currencies since the second half of last year, buoyed by expectations an accelerating economy would prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates next year. Some BoE officials have sought to temper such expectations in the past month and data on Tuesday showed Britain's banks last month approved the lowest number of mortgages since August last year. Sterling later recovered ground, however, to trade just 0.1 percent weaker on the day at $1.6833 and 81.08 pence per euro. DOLLAR STRUGGLES The dollar fell 0.1 percent against a basket of currencies .DXY , extending weakness since the end of last week after another retreat in U.S. bond yields. A stronger dollar was one of many investment houses' major bets at the start of this year but the U.S. economy has so far failed to deliver the comprehensive pickup that would convince the Federal Reserve it needs to raise dollar returns next year. U.S. two-year bond yields have fallen around 10 basis points in the past month despite a blip higher at the end of last week, and are less than half their British equivalents. "The dollar continues to struggle, and you can see that in the U.S. rate curve and rate differentials which haven't moved in the dollar's favour," said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy with BMO in London. "If the data, starting with durables today, does not show the beginning of a more encouraging bounce back from Q1, then the dollar is going to continue to struggle," Gallo added. A raft of U.S. confidence indicators as well as orders for durable goods are due out on Tuesday, starting at 1230 GMT. The dollar lost 0.16 percent against the yen JPY=EBS to stand at 101.80 in early European trade. It fell almost 0.3 percent against the Australian dollar AUD=D4 and 0.2 percent against sterling GBP=D4 . The euro EUR=EBS held on to most of Monday's gains, largely the result of relief that the EU elections did not deliver a knockout blow to any of the bloc's more fragile, debt-ridden governments. Traders said a squeeze in short euro positions had given the euro some support overnight as it managed to stay above major technical markers such as its 200-day average against the dollar and 100-day average against the yen. "It's a sad reflection of the lack of volatility in FX markets that we now report 30 point moves as being newsworthy," said Sean Keane, a director of Triple T Consulting and formerly a markets trader at Credit Suisse. Prospects of policy action from the European Central Bank at its June 5 meeting have weighed on the common currency in the past few weeks and comments from ECB chief Mario Draghi on Monday reinforced those expectations. ID:nL6N0OC24U Reuters reported earlier this month that the ECB is preparing a package of policy options for its June meeting. It includes cuts in all its interest rates as well as targeted measures aimed at boosting lending to smaller firms.

My final currency position GBP/USD 1.67664 has just edged into profit. I'll leave this to run for now. I'm currently debating on shorting GBP/JPY and maybe placing a long position on GBP/EUR.

Cable short closed @ 1.67350 for +31.4

LONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - Sterling was little changed on Thursday after an early dip, with traders pausing during a week of heavy selling that has put the currency on track for its biggest weekly fall in over two months. Figures this week showed Britain's red-hot housing market may be cooling, prompting some of the more aggressive bets on the timing of the first Bank of England rate hike to be scaled back. That helped pull the pound back from a recent 5-1/2 year peak against the dollar and 18-month high against the euro. The selling continued early on Thursday but traders' appetite to push it lower quickly evaporated. Still, barring a continued recovery through to the end of the week, the pound will post its biggest weekly fall against the dollar, euro and on a trade-weighted basis since mid-March. "We had reached a sweet spot in terms of UK macroeconomic data and sentiment," said Neil Jones, head of hedge fund FX sales at Mizuho in London. "But the market is still fundamentally and structurally long (of pounds), so I think this weakness is only temporary," he said. Sterling fell as low as $1.6691 GBP= early on Thursday, but by 0850 GMT it had recovered to $1.6735, up slightly on the day. On Wednesday, the pound fell 0.6 percent, its biggest one-day fall against the dollar in almost four months. The pound was unchanged against the euro at 81.32 pence per euro EURGBP= . The trade-weighted value of sterling, a BoE measure of the currency's value against major global trading counterparts, was at a two-week low of 86.70 =GBP . That index is down more than half a percent this week, on for its biggest weekly decline since mid-March. Financial markets still widely expect the BoE to be the first major central bank to raise interest rates following emergency post-crisis rate cuts to virtually zero. But that may not happen this year, as some traders had started to speculate. The consensus in a Reuters poll of economists on Wednesday showed the first rate hike is likely to be some time in the second quarter of next year, although at least one rate-setter will break ranks and vote for a move by August.

Looks like its dropped back into the downside trend, some short term support at 1.6704. @ 1.6765 or above being the upper trend line I'm looking to short again.

EUR/GBP 0.81321 gone short.

LONDON, May 30 (Reuters) - Global shares steadied on Friday after hitting record highs as investors positioned cautiously on the last trading day of the month, with the market's focus on next week's European Central Bank policy meeting. The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks shares in 45 countries, was down 0.04 percent after scaling a new lifetime high earlier in the session as investors positioned to shield themselves from any disappointment from the ECB, which is widely expected to ease policy significantly on June 5. ID:nL6N0O05MM "The market will hold at current levels until the ECB meeting next week. Should the ECB disappoint the market, then I expect a negative reaction and equities will run into a consolidation that could hold in the summer months," Christian Stocker, equity strategist at UniCredit in Munich, said. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 was down 0.1 percent, with BNP Paribas BNPP.PA leading the index lower after a report saying the U.S. Justice Department was pushing the French bank to pay more than $10 billion to resolve a criminal probe. BNP shares fell 4.9 percent. ID:nL3N0OF455 Germany's DAX slightly outpaced the broader market after figures showed on Friday that German year-on-year retail sales grew at their strongest rate in April since June 2012 as Easter fell later this year than last. In the European bond market, benchmark Bunds were slightly lower, tracking Treasuries US10YT=RR . Ten-year U.S. debt yielded 2.477 percent, up from the U.S. close of 2.447 percent but still close to its lowest levels since last June, touched this week as markets increased bets that the Federal Reserve will not begin raising interest rates any time soon. The euro was steady at $1.3605 EUR= , not far from Thursday's three-month low of $1.3586. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six major rivals, eased slightly to 80.462 .DXY .

LONDON, May 30 (Reuters) - Sterling recovered some ground on Friday after a week of heavy selling that has cast doubt on the UK currency's run to 5-1/2 year highs. The pound has risen more than 10 percent against a basket of currencies in the past 12 months on the back of expectations that an improving economy would force the Bank of England to raise interest rates faster than its euro zone and U.S. peers. Figures this week, however, showed Britain's housing market may be cooling, prompting some aggressive bets on the timing of the first rate hike to be scaled back and putting the currency on track for its biggest weekly fall in more than two months. Dealers say sales of the pound have also been driven by the collapse, at least for the moment, of Pfizer's PFE.N attempt to buy AstraZeneca AZN.L for nearly 70 billion pounds ($118 billion). "One thing that seems fairly clear is that any of that M&A-related flow against the pound has cooled off today," said a dealer with one London bank. "Where we go from here will depend a lot on next week's action at the ECB and then non-farm payrolls in the U.S." The pound rose just over 0.1 percent to $1.6740 and by slightly less against the euro to 81.31 pence EURGBP= . Gilt markets have also been showing signs of doubt over the broad-based nature of Britain's economic recovery, still producing little of the broader-based price pressures which would raise inflation and force the BoE to act. The yield premium paid by British government bonds over German Bunds hit its lowest in three weeks on Thursday in response. GB2YT=RR DE2YT=RR Yields rose in tandem with Bunds and U.S. Treasuries on Friday, after Federal Reserve policymaker Esther George said the Fed's eventual rate rises should be steeper than many in the market expected. ID:nL6N0OG25C The 10-year yield GB10YT=RR was last up 1.8 basis points at 2.566 percent.

EUR/GBP 0.81321 closed @ 0.81289 for +3.2. No point holding over the weekend..

June 3 (Reuters) - Sterling held steady against the dollar and fell against the euro on Tuesday, absorbing surprisingly soft UK construction data but squeezed after weak euro zone inflation triggered a bounce in the shared currency. In late trade in London the euro was up 0.3 percent on the day at 81.40 pence EURGBP= and the pound was unchanged on the day against the dollar at $1.6745 GBP= . Inflation across the 18-nation euro zone slipped to just 0.5 percent in May, increasing the likelihood of easing measures from the European Central Bank later this week and highlighting the contrast with the Bank of England, which is expected to start raising interest rates within a year. ID:nL6N0OK1ES But although below consensus, the decline wasn't a major shock after German inflation figures on Monday came in well below analysts' forecasts. Relieved that inflation wasn't even lower, traders bought the euro back and sterling suffered. "There wasn't any additional 'fear factor' introduced and there was no real surprise, given the German numbers yesterday," said Daragh Maher, senior FX strategist at HSBC in London. "The market was running short of euros, so we have squeezed higher. Also, there's a lot already in the price for sterling in terms of interest rate hike expectations," he said. Financial markets expect the BoE to begin raising rates some time in the early months of next year, in stark contrast to the ECB which will still be in easing mode, and probably at least a few months ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve. But nascent signs of the UK housing market cooling off have tempered some of the more aggressive bets on the timing of the first rate hike, the latest being a survey on Tuesday showing that the construction sector grew in May at its slowest pace in seven months. The Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 60.0 last month, below the 60.8 expected in a Reuters poll but still far above the 50 line that divides growth from contraction. ID:nL9N0MI020 Sterling had run up to a 5-1/2 year peak against the dollar earlier in May. Over the last year the pound has appreciated some 10 percent against a basket of currencies on the growing assumption that the improving economy and red-hot housing market will force the BoE to raise rates faster than its major peers. "The Bank will be tightening when the ECB is loosening ... but there's a somewhat dovish adjustment of UK rate expectations underway recently," HSBC's Maher said.

LONDON, June 4 (Reuters) - Sterling hit a new high for the day against the euro and pared losses against a buoyant dollar on Wednesday after UK services sector activity expanded at a faster than expected pace in May. ID:nL9N0O202G The pound climbed to $1.6730 GBP=D4 after the data from around $1.6705 beforehand, but was still down 0.15 percent on the day. The euro lost ground, hitting a low of 81.355 pence EURGBP=D4 after the survey was released, from around 81.48 pence beforehand. Financial markets expect the Bank of England to begin raising rates early next year, in stark contrast to the European Central Bank which will still be in easing mode, and probably at least a few months ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

GBP/JPY 171.685 have gone short.

LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - European stocks rose and bond yields tumbled on Friday in markets buoyed by the European Central Bank's promise of another tidal wave of deflation-dousing cash, but impending U.S. jobs data kept investors cautious. Benchmark 10-year government borrowing costs for Italy, Spain and Ireland all plunged to record lows, with the Irish yield 11 basis points below comparable U.S. borrowing costs. Stock markets rose too, with bank shares leading the way and putting the pan-European index of Europe's leading 300 shares on track for its eighth consecutive weekly gain. U.S. stock index futures SPc1 pointed to a higher open on Wall Street after May's non-farm payrolls report due at 1230 GMT. ECON There was less movement in currency markets, which swung violently on Thursday after the ECB cut interest rates - including taking deposit rates for banks below zero - and pledged hundreds of billions more euros of cheap funds for banks. ID:nL6N0OM3BH "The ECB decisions were largely in line with what the market was expecting. However, the negative deposit rate is certainly a brave move and hinting that QE (quantitative easing) is a possibility if necessary should be very welcome news," said Mark Ward, head of execution trading at Sanlam Securities. The ECB refrained from following the U.S., Japanese and British central banks in pursuing outright bond-buying. But its president, Mario Draghi, did not rule it out in the future, saying, "We aren't finished here". At 1115 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 share index was up 0.4 percent at 1,385 points, with financials up 1.0 percent .SX7P . Germany's DAX .GDAXI rose 0.3 percent to 9,981 points. On Thursday, it broke above 10,000 points for the first time. Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE was up 0.4 percent at 6,840 points, and France's CAC 40 .FCHI up 0.5 percent at 4,560 points. U.S. JOBS UP NEXT Investors' appetite for risky assets and higher returns was most evident in euro zone peripheral bond markets, where buyers pushed yields to their lowest on record. Italian 10-year yields IT10YT=TWEB fell 18 basis points to 2.77 percent, Spanish equivalents ES10YT=TWEB were down 17 bps at 2.66 percent and Irish yields IE10YT=TWEB fell 11 bps to 2.47 percent. "The real consensus coming out of the ECB meeting is that these measures will be supportive of the (European) periphery," said Anton Heese, co-head of European interest rates strategy at Morgan Stanley. "This should be filtering through into lower funding costs in the periphery." The yield on 10-year German bonds, the benchmark for euro zone borrowing, fell 4 bps to 1.32 percent DE10YT=TWEB . Analysts at SocGen said this reflected concerns that the ECB's measures to fend off deflation might not succeed. They also pointed to the euro's sharp rally well above $1.36 EUR= from the four-month low around $1.35 immediately after the ECB statement and Draghi's news conference on Thursday. The euro was down 0.2 percent on the day round $1.3635, with traders saying major moves were unlikely as billions of dollars of options at $1.36 and $1.3650 expire later in the day, and before the U.S. jobs data. The dollar was up a shade against a basket of currencies .DXY at 80.433. Traders hunkered down ahead of the U.S. jobs report, with the median forecast showing the U.S. economy added a solid 218,000 jobs last month, down from 288,000 in April. Estimates range from 110,000 to 325,000. Richard Hunter, head of equities at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the ECB's move could soothe market jitters over a downbeat number. "There's every possibility of a sell-off should the number disappoint, but ... that could yet be short-lived," he said. Earlier in Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.25 percent and Japan's Nikkei .N225 closed flat at 15,077. Yields on two-year U.S. Treasury notes were at 0.38 percent US2YT=RR after dipping 2 basis points on Thursday, while those on 10-year paper fell 1.4 bps to 2.57 percent US10YT=RR . Gold steadied at $1,251 XAU= having enjoyed its biggest gain in three weeks overnight as buyers were encouraged by the prospect of yet-lower rates for longer in the euro zone. Brent crude oil LCOc1 nudged higher to just under $109 a barrel.

GBP/JPY short 171.685 closed at 171.889 for -20.4 to free up markin requirement, no further currency positions open.

Mark Carney has warned households, companies and financial markets to prepare for an interest rate rise, saying the first increase “could happen sooner than markets currently expect”. In his first hawkish comments since becoming governor of the Bank of England almost a year ago, Mr Carney stressed on Thursday evening that the widely anticipated action by the central bank this month to cool the housing market will not be a substitute for gradual interest rate rises. Having last year guided people to expect rates to remain at the emergency level of 0.5% until 2016, financial markets currently expect the first rise in spring 2015 and the governor’s Mansion House speech to a City audience is bound to bring expectations further forward, perhaps towards the end of this year – FT.

Noting - Pound starting to slip against a basket of currencies now.

I prefer this one

The pound is still pushing higher, I await the downside.

■Today, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s Prime Minster, unveils his push for changes at the $1.26 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund that could shift hundreds of billions of dollars out of domestic government bonds into equities, overseas assets and alternatives such as infrastructure. The fund is being dubbed ‘the agent of reform’. USD/JPY unchanged.

The third arrow!

So its been dubed, you'd expect it to drive the Nikkei on a nice gradual upwards path if risk is adopted. As for Yen I'd expect this to create some demand for the currency so would think GBP/JPY and USD/JPY would top off, maybe 173 for G/J would make a nice shorting point, I'll wait and see.

With Carney in front of the TSC today also GBP/EUR could well see a fall, rate increases will be slow and steady I think, we're too near to a general election for anything else in my view, GBP/USD & GBP/EUR could both be quick shorters. Eyes down!!

Whilst I have a sec, there we have it, a Hawkish Carney yesterday seeing the pound off highs... I think Euro will now fall to test the 1.22 support level and as such will short GBP/EUR.

Long EUR/GBP 0.80228.

LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) - Sterling inched lower on Wednesday, adding to its biggest fall against the euro in more than a month after the latest salvo from Bank of England policymakers left investors increasingly confused over the outlook for interest rates. With Britain's economy steadily improving, the game on the pound for the past few months has been a to and fro on expectations for when the bank will deliver a first, potentially small and precautionary, rise in interest rates. Money markets suggest many investors expect that to be as early as November. However, a number of analysts and dealers say Governor Mark Carney has muddied the waters after two performances in a week that pushed market expectations on timing first one way then the other. On Tuesday Carney pushed back slightly against expectations the bank will raise rates before the end of this year, saying the economy still has slack to work through. ID:nL6N0P52WP Criticism of the governor by the head of parliament's Treasury committee made the front page of the Financial Times on Wednesday. "Carney did himself no favours at all yesterday. People feel he is flipping and flapping over rates," said one London-based foreign exchange dealer. "As a central banker you should seek to provide clear guidance and a consistent message. This guy is not giving that at the moment. The net effect today anyway is that people are less sure about a rate rise by the end of the year." Sterling was around 0.2 percent lower against both the dollar and the euro on Wednesday. It fell to a one-week low against the dollar of $1.6952 GBP=D4 while the euro rose to 80.315 pence, its highest in nearly two weeks. The outlook for sterling looks positive though compared to the dollar, euro, yen or Swiss franc as markets still expect the BoE will be the first of the four major central banks to raise interest rates. "At the end of the day this is the only central bank currently talking actively about raising interest rates," said Graham Davidson, a currency trader with Australian bank NAB in London. "The market had been very long of sterling before yesterday's comments by Carney and it was only natural that we came off a bit. But I don't see us coming much further." Worries that the UK housing market is again overheating, and will eventually need to be calmed by more than just tighter practical controls on mortgage lending, support the argument for a rate rise before year-end. The BoE's latest financial stability report on Thursday may provide more food for thought on that front.

Carney effect.

Yep, lets see how long it lasts shall we....

LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) - Sterling hit its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis on Tuesday after a survey showed British manufacturing growing at its fastest in seven months, adding to the case for a rise in interest rates this year. The PMI index of sentiment among manufacturing purchasing managers rose to 57.5 in June from 57.0 in May - its highest since November and well above the 50 line that divides growth from contraction. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the index to fall to 56.8. ECONGB The survey adds to evidence that Britain's consumer-led recovery is becoming more balanced and sustainable. The numbers are likely to reassure policymakers looking for a more broad-based recovery based on greater exports, manufacturing and business investment. ID:nL9N0O500C Sterling rose to $1.7162 GBP=D4 , up around 0.25 percent on the day. In contrast to the UK data, U.S. data disappointed with the Institute for Supply Management's index of national factory activity at 55.3 in June, almost unchanged from May's 55.4 reading. But it was under the 55.8 reading a Reuters poll expected. The euro fell 0.3 percent to 79.765 pence EURGBP=D4 from around 80.05 pence before the UK data. Against a basket of major currencies, sterling hit its highest in nearly six years, rising to 88.6, data from the bank of England showed. =GDP . Some traders said expectations for robust growth and an ensuing Bank of England hike in interest rates for the first time in seven years now looked well priced into sterling. The last month has shown, however, that the currency will still move on changes in expectations on how early that first hike might come. "We're already looking at a decent consensus 3 percent growth for this year," said Simon Smith, head of research at FxPro. "Stronger PMIs will solidify that perception but I don't think they're necessarily going to cause sterling to run away unless we have anything from the central bank that's going to cause markets to believe that things are shifting on that front," he said. BoE policymakers have massaged expectations on the timing of their first move in a series of comments over the past month. The market is divided over whether they could move as early as November this year or wait until well into 2015. Either way, the bank is firmly expected to be the first of the world's major central banks to tighten monetary policy and that has driven a roughly 10 percent gain in the past year. The BoE starts a two-day policy meeting next Wednesday where it is widely expected not to make any changes. On Thursday, the European Central Bank's governing council meets and is expected to keep policy unchanged after lowering rates just last month. "We think sterling has a had a good run, both against the dollar and the euro," said Ian Gunner, portfolio manager at Altana Hard Currency Fund. "Against the dollar, much would depend on how the U.S. payrolls data is on Thursday." Economists polled by Reuters expect 212,000 jobs to have been added in June, for the fifth straight month of gains above 200,000, which is a run unmatched since the period from September 1999 to January 2000. A weaker-than-expected payrolls report could see the U.S. dollar .DXY suffer more. The dollar has shed 0.7 percent against a basket of currencies .DXY in June, on growing expectations that U.S. interest rates will not be heading higher anytime soon.

July 4 (Reuters) - The dollar struggled to make more headway on Friday after a jump in U.S. job creation left stock markets in optimistic mood but did not convince traders it would be a trigger for the U.S. Federal Reserve to move toward higher interest rates. Sterling, not for the first time in recent months the main weekly winner on major currency markets, was back on the verge of almost six-year highs against the dollar. The dollar's failure to launch has been the big disappointment on currency markets this year. Solid U.S. jobs numbers for the fifth month running backed the analysts who have begun again to predict it may take off in the coming months. Against that, the euro continues to be backed by inflows of cash into European bond and stock markets and also by talk in the market of buying by Asian central banks recycling the dollar reserves they are accumulating into other currencies. After a half-cent swing after the jobs numbers on Thursday ID:nLNS3IEAIF , the dollar was just over 0.1 percent higher against the euro on Friday. EUR=EBS "You're getting this sort of muted reaction maybe because no-one is that convinced these numbers will really change the Fed's outlook," said Daragh Maher, a strategist with HSBC in London. "It played reasonably well yesterday as a dollar positive, but the scale of the move has not been so big. It has gained, just not that much." Maher drew parallels with the recent play on sterling, driven higher by investors' conviction that strong UK economic numbers would eventually prompt the Bank of England to shift to a more hawkish tone on interest rates. That seems to have happened in the past month, with Governor Mark Carney and colleagues hinting that the bank could even raise rates for the first time before the end of the year. Fed chief Janet Yellen, however, for now has offered little sign of heading in the same direction. "It seems as though people are slightly more reluctant to take on the Fed in the way we saw with the Bank of England," Maher said. "But maybe there comes a tipping point with data like this where the message has to change." CROWN DOWN After some early sales of euro in European time, the dollar touched its highest in a week at $1.3587 per euro. Against a trade-weighted basket of currencies .DXY it was last at 80.279, having climbed as far as 80.315 after the jobs numbers. Against the yen, it hovered near a two-week high at 102.06 JPY= . It was up 0.7 percent so far this week, on track for its best performance in 2-1/2 months. The Swedish crown crashed 2 full percentage points in value on Thursday after the country's central bank slashed its interest rates by a half point to just 0.25 percent and gave a dim outlook on growth that hinted more might be in the pipeline. Poor industrial output numbers added to concerns about the prospect of deflation in Sweden and prodded the crown a further 0.3 percent lower on Friday. "The Riksbank acted decisively against Swedish deflation risks yesterday (but) given the zero lower bound, the Swedish krona needs to weaken a lot further," said Alvin Tan, a strategist with French bank Societe Generale in London. "Despite the recent fall in the crown, it remains too high in trade-weighted terms, whether in real or nominal terms. The Riksbank needs a weaker krona, and it has historically been willing to pursue unconventional policies in extremis."

LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - Sterling edged down on Monday as traders continued to be cautious over events in Ukraine and Gaza and as data added to a sense that Britain's economic recovery might be coming off the boil. Numbers released on Monday showed British consumer confidence dipped for the first time in 2014 in June, with spending on gas and electricity around 2.5 percent lower than a year ago. ID:nL6N0PT4ID Separate data showed asking prices for British houses had fallen for the first time this year. ID:nL6N0PT31L Concerned about Ukraine and Gaza, investors have pulled money out of sterling, putting it instead into traditionally safer currencies such as the yen, Swiss franc and the dollar. Sterling was down 0.1 percent against the dollar at $1.7075, over a cent lower than last week's near six-year high of $1.7192 GBP=D4 . "It doesn't seem very comfortable at $1.71 and we've seen it fall off quite sharply, but I think that's more about a slight dollar move," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com. "Also I think we're a bit risk-off," Brooks said. Against the euro, the pound was flat 79.20 pence EURGBP=D4 . Traders are awaiting minutes on Wednesday from the latest meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee for any signs of when a first interest rate hike in seven years might happen. The market is pricing in a slight chance that will come in November GBPOIS=ICAP . Data last week showed UK inflation in June at a higher-than-expected 1.9 percent, just shy of the BoE's 2 percent target, prompting investors to increase bets that the rate rise will come before the end of the year. But some traders said that despite that expectation, there were a number of risks that could weigh on sterling and could inject the market with a dose of a volatility. "Tailwinds from BoE hikes may not be enough to offset growing downside risks (for sterling). Investor concerns about the Scottish referendum in September, general elections next May and a potential ... "Brexit" (Britain leaving the European Union) could ... fuel FX implied volatility," analysts from Citigroup said in a research note.

Debating a EUR/GBP long position..

Bit easier to see with the Tenkan-sen in yellow.

Shortie, I note you created this thread. Did you leave out the Euro sign
in the heading because your keyboard, like mine, doesn't have the Euro key?

Its on number 4 along the top, I couldn't work out if it was 'shift', 'ctrl', 'alt' and the number to get it or a combination and just gave up in the end.

EUR/GBP looking overbought on the 5 following a bounce off 1.27

Its CTRL, ALT 4 €

The nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates at 0.5%, as expected.

They agreed that while "employment had continued to increase robustly... wage growth had been surprisingly weak".

Wage growth excluding bonuses slowed to a record low 0.7% in the three months to May.

The committee also said there might be a "modest slowing in output growth" in the second half of the year.

The minutes read: "There were early signs that global growth was weakening, and an unexpected increase in interest rates when real wages were not yet rising could... destabilise the recovery.

"The committee agreed that no increase was warranted at this meeting, although for some members the decision had become more balanced in the past few months than earlier in the year".

€€€€€€€€€€€ cheers Skinny

£ and € after BoE minutes.

Euroforecast

€ new lows

Could become interesting if it breaks support..

Gone Short.

$ gains

Nicely in the money, sold at 1.68798 and currently at 1.68603..

Approaching the upper trend line of the range, one to watch for a reversal now.

$ v Y today

Dollar up

A change in trend....

Its seams to me that the Scotland vote will create alot of volatility in the pair whilst this business of a currency union goes unresolved. I suppose if Scotland aren't allowed to keep Sterling then we'll see Sterling weaken.

Aug 14 (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is gaining a reputation for upsetting the financial markets. Coming from a policymaker who championed predictability when he arrived in London a year ago, his apparently alternating signals on interest rates have left many investors perplexed. In June, he made sterling leap by warning investors that they were not sufficiently pricing in the chance of an early increase in Britain's record-low benchmark interest rates. Two months on, Carney has sent the pound tumbling towards its biggest daily fall in six months by seemingly pushing back the prospect of a rate hike this year. ID:nL6N0QJ3O0 Analysts at Citigroup called Carney a "policy chameleon" after he caught markets by surprise on Wednesday by emphasising the importance of pay and labour costs in the Bank's thinking on when to raise rates while at the same time announcing a halving of the BoE's wage growth forecasts. "Sterling is clearly disappointed by Carney's moving of the goalposts yet again," said Geoffrey Yu, a currency strategist at UBS, as the pound sank to a four-month low against the dollar. In June, a member of Britain's parliament hit the headlines when he likened Carney to an "unreliable boyfriend" for blowing hot and cold over when interest rates might rise. "I would say he is more like a fearful fiancé. He has popped the question, i.e. put the prospect of a rate hike out there, but is yet to commit to a date for the big day," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at FOREX.com, on Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank of England is stressing that the guidance that really matters for the economy is its plan to raise rates only gradually when the time comes, and to a lower level than before the financial crisis. Carney on Wednesday was dismissive of the speculation about the exact timing of the first increase, saying it only mattered to investors gambling on interest rate futures. Also in the BoE's defence are the huge uncertainties about whether Britain's fast-recovering economy is at risk of overheating. Unemployment has plunged far faster over the past year than forecasters expected. On the other hand, since Carney warned markets in June against being too relaxed about when rates might rise, wage growth has stagnated and even fell in the second quarter. MIXED SIGNALS Those mixed signals from the labour market leave open the starkly contrasting possibilities that inflationary increases in pay are approaching, or that Britain's economic recovery remains fragile despite its recent momentum. "Of course the data has moved about and the BoE has to respond, but their message seems to change a lot from month to month and that makes it hard to figure out how much weight to put on it," said Rob Wood at Berenberg bank in London. Samuel Tombs, at Capital Economics, said he was taking Carney's latest comments with a pinch of salt too. "The recent variability of the governor's tone - recall he was trying to talk up rate expectations in June - means we are reluctant to read too much into his dovish noises," Tombs said, adding the chances of a 2014 rate hike remained finely balanced. Next week's publication of the minutes of the BoE's August policy meeting might show at least one policymaker cast a first vote in favour of a rate hike, potentially putting markets back on alert about a tightening of policy this year by the BoE. Whichever way the economic data and the policy debate develop, there will be no return to the lull in markets that marked much of the first year of Carney's term at the BoE. Soon after arriving from Canada in July 2013, he moved to douse any early expectations of a rate hike by introducing a 'forward guidance' policy. The BoE first ruled out any consideration of a hike until unemployment fell to 7 percent. After that happened far more quickly than forecast, the Bank tied rates to a broad assessment of spare capacity. Sam Hill, an economist at RBC Capital Markets in London, said the BoE's emphasis on Wednesday on the outlook for inflation via the labour market meant a full return to the more traditional way of making monetary policy. "In this sense, if the August Inflation Report last year was about saying hello to forward guidance, this year it is about saying goodbye to it," Hill said.

Don't think it will matter Shortie i can't see the yes vote winning .

Dollar trend

Pre-Yellen

Euro struggles

Euro moves up

One-year low for Euro

EUR/GBP gone long 0.79356

0.79545 position closed for a small profit.

$ @ 7-month high

Sterling prospects

Sterling 2-yr high & Scottish Referendum

EUR/GBP gone short @ 0.78697

Royal Mint to sell Bullion coins online

Cheers for that link midnight, funnily enough I have a stash of bullion coins and have always purchased through a dealer. I'll no doubt have a look at that website very soon.

Sterling rising

$ drops

0.78330 EUR/GBP closed +367.

Well done, Shortie.

Cheers Midnight..

Closed out position too soon... Oh well better a profit than a loss.

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Sterling reached its highest against the euro in more than two years on Thursday, as the latest comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney helped the pound get to less than 78 pence per euro for the first time since July of 2012. Along with a raft of other major currencies, the pound was weaker against the dollar. But the contrasting outlooks for monetary policy in the euro zone and United Kingdom have taken sterling close to highs against the euro not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Carney said that a rise in interest rates was "getting closer". He was also the latest central banker to warn that loose monetary conditions may have led investors to misprice risk and created the danger of a sharp reversal in markets - comments that would naturally point to tighter rates to cool sentiment. ID:nL9N0P503N Sterling pushed up to a high of 77.855 pence against the euro in response before retreating to 78.09 pence. EURGBP=D4 . "I don't think there is much mystery to Carney now: if he can hold off raising rates for the first six months of next year, he will, but that is not going to stop him from giving these sort of broad indications that rates will rise so that financial stability risks remain in check," said Stephen Gallo, a strategist with Canadian bank BMO in London. Sterling also recovered some of the day's losses against a broadly stronger dollar to trade at $1.6311, down just over 0.1 percent on the day. GBP=D4 After the pound's rough ride leading up to last week's vote on Scottish independence, market attention is swinging back to diverging policy in the UK and continental Europe, and analysts say the euro may continue to fall. "Notwithstanding some mixed messages from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers, the economic fundamentals continue to point to dollar strength and a focus on the divergence in policy outlooks that will weaken the euro," said Phyllis Papadavid, senior global FX strategist at BNP Paribas in London. Until mid-July, the pound had been one of the best performers among leading currencies, surging 15 percent against the dollar in a year, on expectations the Bank of England would raise interest rates earlier than its peers. Those expectations have been pushed back, but some major investment houses still predict the bank will raise rates in November. On the gilt market, the premium that 10-year British government bonds GB10YT=RR offer over the equivalent German Bund EU10YT=RR neared its highest level this week after Carney's remarks. The gap between the two bond yields rose more than a basis point and eventually topped 149 bps, just shy of Monday's high of 149.2 bps, before receding back to around 148 bps. In the cash market, gilt prices rose modestly, boosted by a weaker-than-expected U.S. business survey that pushed U.S. Treasury and Bund prices higher.

GBP/USD (short)and GBP/EUR (long) would have been a nice pairs trade this morning.

Yep.

Euro in the doldrums

I reckon more downside is on the cards.

Sure is, BOE and ECB are currently at poles on policy.

TOKYO, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stressed his resolve to maintain massive stimulus for a prolonged period but shrugged off the need to expand it soon, remaining upbeat on the outlook despite signs the economy may be in a mild recession. Kuroda also stuck to his view that a weak yen is positive for Japan's economy. But he slightly modified his tone by nodding to concerns from the business community that further yen declines will hurt small firms and households by boosting import costs. "If the currency moves reflect economic and financial fundamentals, they should be positive, not negative, for the economy. But fundamentals themselves fluctuate, so it's important to take this into account," he said on Tuesday. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its pledge of increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the central bank, at an annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen ($547-$638 billion) via purchases of government bonds and risky assets. The central bank maintained its view the world's third largest economy continues to recover moderately as a trend. But it offered a bleaker view on factory output, saying it was "weakening" as a slump in demand after a sales tax hike in April left auto and electronic makers with a huge pile of inventory. A government index gauging current economic conditions worsened in August, data showed on Tuesday, a sign the economy may be in recession as it suffers from the tax-hike hit. Kuroda acknowledged that the tax-hike pain and bad summer weather had weighed on consumption longer than expected. But he stressed that after a temporary soft patch, growth will pick up enough to accelerate inflation toward the BOJ's price target. "Job and income conditions are steadily improving, and the effect of the sales tax hike is easing as a whole. Both for companies and households, a positive cycle of income and expenditure remains firmly in place," he said. "Our policy is exerting intended effects," Kuroda added, signalling that he saw no need to expand monetary stimulus any time soon despite a slew of recent weak data. But Kuroda also stressed that the BOJ's quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) won't be automatically terminated when the two-year deadline for meeting its price target approaches. "Rather, it's an outcome-based programme," which means the BOJ will maintain QQE for as long as necessary to ensure inflation stays at, not just temporarily hits, 2 percent, he said. An intense burst of monetary and fiscal stimulus, which were the first two "arrows" of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's strategy to end 15 years of deflation, has helped boost business sentiment by lifting share prices and weakening the yen. But measures to enhance corporate governance and deregulate highly-protected medical and farm sectors, which are part of his "third arrow" growth strategy, have failed to impress markets. With the tax-hike pain weighing on household spending, any further worsening of sentiment would complicate Abe's crucial decision by year-end on whether to proceed with a scheduled second sales tax hike to 10 percent in October next year. WEAK YEN DE-MERITS Abe's cabinet has also come under fire in parliament over the pain that the weak yen, generated in part from the BOJ's massive stimulus, inflicts on households via rising import costs. Kuroda himself was grilled in parliament from an opposition lawmaker on the yen when he was summoned to speak on Tuesday, a rare event that forced the BOJ to briefly interrupt its rate review for the first time in 16 years. Abe and his cabinet ministers have recently started to comment on the disadvantages of the weak yen, largely on the need as politicians to pay heed to their local constituencies. Kuroda, by contrast, has said a weak yen did not pose any big problem as it helps boost exporters' revenues, which would trickle down to households through higher wages and jobs growth. Given growing public attention, however, he shifted closer to the government's line by talking not just about the merits, but the demerits, of yen declines. "In general, a weak yen has some positive effect on exports and capital expenditure by pushing up revenues at companies with operations overseas. On the other hand, it's true a weak yen weighs on non-manufacturers' revenues by pushing up import costs," he told parliament. The central bank has stood pat on monetary policy since deploying an intense burst of stimulus in April last year, when it pledged to achieve its 2 percent inflation in roughly two years via aggressive asset purchases. Still, the central bank may come under renewed pressure to expand stimulus if the economic weakness persists, analysts say. After a surprise slump in August factory output, the BOJ cut its assessment on production, saying output has been weak due partly to inventory adjustments. It said last month that the trend in output was for a continued rise, albeit with some weaknesses. ID:nL3N0RW3GS Debate at Tuesday's meeting lays the groundwork for a more crucial policy meeting on Oct. 31, when the nine board members issue new quarterly long-term economic and price projections. Given signs of a delay in the recovery, they are likely to roughly halve their economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year from the present projection of 1.0 percent, the sources familiar with BOJ thinking said.

Dollar strengthens

LONDON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Sterling fell while gilt futures
edged higher on Wednesday after Bank of England minutes showed
policymakers were firmly against raising interest rates when
they met earlier this month.
While two members voted to raise interest rates, most of the
MPC's nine members saw "few signs" of inflation pressures
building. ID:nL9N09F05F
Sterling fell to the day's low of $1.6012 GBP=D4 , from
around $1.6066 beforehand.
The euro was up 0.25 percent at 79.265 EURGBP=D4 , having
traded at 78.99 beforehand.
British government bond futures jumped to a session high of
116.25 FLGc1 after the BoE minutes, adding more than 10 ticks
and pushing 10-year gilt yields down to 2.14 percent, 3.8 basis
points lower on the day.

(Reporting by London Markets Team, editing by Nigel Stephenson)

I think the Euro may be ready to start rising v Sterling gradually,
and also it did not slide to 78 minus which may be in its favour, though
still early days. What do you think, Shortie?

1.24 to 1.26 I think will be the next range, not planning on trading it just yet though.

Well the Yen is about the only currency that has my attention right now....

Currency ETFs

£ v $ 14-month low

Forex Investors May Face $1 Billion Loss as Trade Site Vanishes

What happened and how they were screwed

Exec - I note the husband and wife are youngish GPs in the UK
at the same practice (google info) and put about £40K between them
into this scheme or scam, Tidy sum! Also, the guy mentioned at the top is/was a
Florida doctor. Hmm. A sad and bad way to lose big sums.
The whole thing reminds me of the old saying: an ounce of foresight
is worth more than a ton of hindsight. But most people, even serious
investors, don't have that sort of money at that age to put into such schemes or scams.
anyway. The story is really a warning to everyone not to rely on websites only if they
are thinking of putting money into something they don't understand unless they
are prepared to lose it all.

Dollar bandwagon

Dollar at 5-year high

Regarding the Secure website article above it just goes to show how naive people can be. There is no such thing as a company that will take your money and invest it for you and offer returns as they described. The old ponzi scheme pretty much worked in much the same way.

The only way to make money in currency is to pretty much follow what central banks and government are doing that make up the pair, check economic figures and keep studying until you have an understanding of what's happening, learn to chart and follow trends, then when your comfortable that you can ride a trend against suspected monetary policy and economic backdrop try making a trade.

There is no sure system, everybody I've ever spoken to has traded slightly differently, no one (business or person) will make you huge returns. If I was capable of making 250% a year I'd keep quiet about it (wouldn't reveal my system) and certainly wouldn't be posting here..!

If ever it sounds too good to be true and you have to part with your cash or personal information remember that you ARE being conned..

I've just had an email from a very nice Nigerian Prince who wants to get his money out of his country and split it 50/50 with me .
I told him to wire me 50K so that i can open an account with Coutts who will be handling the transaction ,i'm still waiting for him to get back to me .

Shortie. what I find weird is that the three docs mentioned did this without doing any reseasrch.
Would they approve of their patients going to quacks...!
And I hope their patients get more attention than their money.
If they had 'invested' 40k in GSK (being medics) they would have got at least £2000
in divis every year plus capital growth if they left it untouched, being so young.
Or is it easier to become a doc than to acquire simple investment knowhow.
What happened to common sense!

Carrot donkey springs to mind... I've always been very sceptical of anyone that has promised a return on the financial markets... The sad thing is every year greed will get the better of someone and it has become a fraudsters business to cast his net far and wide to fish for that greedy someone...

Just remember folks, you don't earn anything if you don't work for it... Reading the claims of someone willing to put your money to work for you will only result in you losing your money... If your into the investing business then do just that and invest, don't give your money to someone who spends all their time in the media business trying to convince you their an investor, if they were, they'd be busy investing, not writing articles and boasting about their elaborated returns!

GBP/JPY 181.781 gone short

Japan’s economy tipped into a technical recession following a jump in consumption taxes in April, making it a near-certainty that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will delay another increase while appealing for a fresh mandate via a snap election. Monday’s preliminary data for the period between July and September was far worse than markets expected, showing a shrinkage of 1.6% quarter-on-quarter on an annualised basis against analysts’ expectations for growth of 2.2%, as businesses cut back spending – FT.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and his chief economist, Andy Haldane, indicated they are focused on downside risks to inflation as the central bank emphasises the reasons for keeping loose monetary policy. “We’ve got huge disinflationary forces coming from our trade partners, particularly in Europe, and commodity prices have gone down quite sharply,” Carney said in an interview. With consumer-price growth below the BOE’s target, Haldane said in a speech published yesterday he’s watching developments “like a dove” – Bbg.

Euro rising

GBP/JPY 184.443 extended short play

TOKYO, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Japanese exports grew in October at the fastest pace in eight months, an encouraging sign that global demand could help the country recover from recession and support the central bank's optimistic economic outlook. The 9.6 percent annual rise in exports in October was more than double the 4.5 percent gain expected by economists in a Reuters poll and faster than September's 6.9 percent year-on-year increase. In another sign that the world's third-largest economy is regaining its footing, a private flash survey conducted by Markit/JMMA showed that factory output grew in November at the fastest pace since March. ID:nS7N0OL00R Policymakers were stunned by data this week that showed the Japanese economy fell into recession as a sales tax hike weighed on consumer spending and business investment. But growing exports and output could help lift some of the gloom surrounding the economy. "The trade data shows that exports will contribute to growth in the fourth quarter and help recoup some of the weakness we've seen in Japan's domestic demand," said Shuji Tonouchi, senior fixed income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Accelerating exports could also be a positive for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has said he will call an election amid growing doubts about his economic policies. Japan's exports jumped in October due to higher shipments of cars, ships and electronics, finance ministry data showed. Exports to Asia, which account for more than half of Japanese shipments, picked up to 10.5 percent in October from a year earlier. Shipments to China slowed to a 7.2 percent annual rise in October from an 8.7 percent pace the previous month as the world's second-largest economy slows. SOLID SALES TO U.S. Exports to the United States rose 8.9 percent in October from a year ago, double September's rate. Total imports rose 2.7 percent year-on-year to October, lower than the median poll estimate for 3.4 percent. October produced a trade deficit of 710.0 billion yen ($6.01 billion), less than the median forecast for a 1.05 trillion yen deficit from a Reuters' poll of analysts. Japan's competitors have become increasingly worried that Tokyo's reflationary economic policies were weakening the yen, allowing Japanese firms to undercut their own exporters. Hitherto, there had not been much sign that Japan's exporters were benefitting much from the weaker yen as most have moved much of their production overseas. The yen JPY= has fallen around 30 percent versus the dollar since Abe took office in late 2012. On Thursday, the yen struck a seven-year low, trading just under 119 per dollar and currency traders think it could go to 120 as early as next week. Despite strong gains made by exports in October, some economists doubt whether the weak yen will sustain the trend. "It is premature to declare that exports will remain in an upward trend," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute. "We need more time to see if companies will respond to the yen's decline by slowing their transfer of manufacturing capacity overseas."

Stocks down as US$ hits 7-year high v Yen

Sterling prospects

Dollar bulls on the march

Yen positions closed at loss

$ v Y touches 7-year high

EUR/GBP 0.79283 gone short

EUR/GBP position closed @ 0.78840 for +443

Nice one Shortie

Good show, Shortie. I think the Euro may go down a bit more.

Euro prospects

Quite possibly but I needed to take some profit for Christmas shopping the way the Mrs goes through it!

Boring....

Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic party has cruised to another election victory in Japan, strengthening the prime minister’s firm grip despite a record-low turnout. The LDP won 291 of 475 seats in the lower house of parliament, the more powerful of the two chambers, roughly matching its performance two years ago, when Mr Abe swept to power on a promise of overcoming more than a decade of deflation. The result is a boost for Abenomics, the prime minister’s three-pronged growth platform, as it buys time to pursue some of the tougher structural reforms to revitalise industry and agriculture. It could also extend Mr Abe’s own reign until 2018, meaning that the 60-year-old conservative could become one of Japan’s longest-serving prime ministers of the post-war period – FT.

The US Senate ended the threat of a government shutdown by passing a $1.1 tln spending package at the weekend, but only after days of acrimony and revolts that are likely to foreshadow more of the same next year. The sprawling package, which was backed by both party establishments, will fund most of the federal government through to September 2015 and now goes to the White House to be signed by President Barack Obama, who supports it. But populist rebellions against it on both sides of the aisle put paid to hopes that Congress was edging towards an era of more constructive bipartisan co-operation before Republicans take control of both chambers next year – FT.

David Cameron is eyeing a deal on Britain’s EU relationship just months before his mooted referendum, as diplomats work towards a “sweet spot” for an agreement in the summer of 2017, the tantalising gap between French and German elections. Mr Cameron believes that a new French president, possibly a returning Nicolas Sarkozy, will be best-placed to help Britain, working alongside Angela Merkel, whose mandate expires at German elections in the autumn of 2017 – FT.

Fitch Ratings cut France's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings to AA from AA+, resolving the Rating Watch Negative; the outlooks on France's Long-term ratings were Stable. Issue ratings on France's unsecured foreign and local currency bonds were also downgraded to AA from AA+; but Fitch affirmed the short-term foreign currency IDR at F1+ and Country Ceiling at AAA. It acted after not seeing "material improvement" in the "trajectory of public debt dynamics following the European Commission's opinion on France's 2015 budget". The French government announced €3.6 bln in additional budget saving measures (0.17% of GDP) for 2015, which will push down next year's official headline fiscal deficit target to 4.1% of GDP from the previous 4.3% forecast. Budgetary consolidation cannot be "perpetually put off" Jens Weidmann, the president of the German central bank said over the weekend. The head of the German central bank has criticised the EU's decision to give France extra time to sort out its budget, hinting at a disagreement between Europe's two most powerful economies. Weidmann told a French newspaper that he feared last month's decision to give France more time to spell out plans to fix its budget deficit risked giving the impression that EU rules are up for negotiation – MNI. -

Debating a short..

Interesting hourly chart, I'm hoping for a cross for a long position as indices aren't doing much today.

Pound drops

Dollar index

Any effort by the European Central Bank to launch a massive quantitative easing programme this year would fail to revive the eurozone economy, according to a poll of 32 eurozone economists. The survey found that most expected the ECB to launch QE in 2015; catching up with the world’s other main central banks that have all bought large quantities of sovereign debt since the last financial crisis. A stuttering recovery and a worrying drop in inflation have raised fears of another financial crisis in the currency bloc and put pressure on policy makers to cast aside powerful opposition from Germany and begin purchasing sovereign debt; but most of the respondents expected growth and inflation to remain weak even with quantitative easing – FT.

Greece’s political parties embarked on a flash campaign for elections in less than three weeks that Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said will determine the fate of the country’s membership in the euro currency area. Samaras used a Jan. 2 speech to warn that victory for the main opposition Syriza party would cause default and Greece’s exit from the 19-member euro region, while Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras said his party would end German-led austerity – Bbg.

Germany has insisted that it expects Greece to stay in the eurozone, despite a news report claiming Berlin was ready to see Athens quit the common currency if the populist Syriza party wins this month’s snap election and reneges on the country’s reform programme. Der Spiegel magazine reported on Sunday that Chancellor Angela Merkel was abandoning her previous commitment to keeping Greece in the eurozone at any price, and preparing instead for a possible Greek exit in the event that Syriza, which has called for drastic debt cuts and an end to austerity, confronts EU partners with unacceptable demands – FT.

David Cameron hinted a Conservative government could bring forward a referendum on Britain’s EU membership, in a sign the prime minister does not want the question of Europe to dominate a second term in government. Mr Cameron, who has promised a vote by the end of 2017 if his party wins the general election in May, said he would be “delighted” if he could settle the matter before that deadline – FT.

Dollar wagers

Doesn't look like its going to break out of the range, with QE and Greece in turmoil why hold Euros I think will become the question. I await shorting signals to further establish.

Well the EU are clearing the way for QE, an increase in money supply will weaken the Euro, we have Greek elections on the 25th and I wonder how long sanctions against Russia will take before the default (like in 89.) on debt. Certainly any default will crack Germany and forward looking could well be the fatal blow to the entire currency whhooppieeee... So a Euro short against the majors continues to be a no brainer right now. I may extend short positions.

Boom, get in..... Ker-ching...! :-)

Swiss franc soars as Switzerland scraps ban on cap
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30829917

Barclays loss
on Swiss franc moves

Fall looks overdone and a move back to the 25 day moving average first target now. The market awaits the ECB QE programme due this week.

The ECB will purchase bonds worth €60bn per month until the end of September 2016 and possibly longer - far more than previously expected.

The ECB has also said eurozone interest rates are being held at the record low of 0.05%, where they have been since September 2014.

ECB president Mario Draghi said the programme would begin in March.

He told a news conference the ECB would be purchasing euro-denominated investment grade securities in the secondary market.

He said the programme would be conducted "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation", which the ECB has pledged to maintain at close to 2%.

No reason not to be short and stay short on this news...

ECB STIMULUS PLAN
Via Twitter Nouriel Roubini Professor at Stern School, NYU tweets: ECB went for a larger QE program (over 1tr euros) in exchange for low risk sharing (only 20% of bonds purchased by ECB, 80% by NCBs [national central banks]) #WEF

All we need now is for Cameron to win the election, take us into the EU fully and watch our savings shrink as they get revalued as Euro's....

Finland’s prime minister opened the door on Thursday to a renegotiation of the terms of Greek debt short of a writedown in the face value owed, ahead of elections on Sunday. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Alexander Stubb said that his country could consider extensions to the maturity of the debt and changes in the conditions attached to the debt, but no debt forgiveness. His Irish counterpart, Enda Kenny, the Taoiseach, agreed – FT.

Pound gains strongest level in seven years versus Euro

The only piece of news that really interested me was that America is looking to increase its sanctions against Russia..... This will surely have further downwards pressure on the Rouble and cause the government to carry on buying it to help stabilise the currency. With an increasing deficit brought about through trade sanctions and currency stabilisation the odds that we'll see a 1998 debt default are increasing.

Worth a read http:http://www.economist.com/node/21636720//

The Russian government is to spend at least 2.34 trillion roubles ($35bn, £23bn) to try to stave off an economic crisis, following a collapse in oil prices and the value of the rouble.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31018881

Have taken a Chunnel long just now as we broke above .75

Euro-dollar parity

Dollar licks its wounds

What's happened to Shortie?

He defected to over the road :(

Really! Why?

Not sure , it was after Goldfinger got banned .

Dollar recovers from two-month low

Watching the fall in Sterling and not far now from a tempting long play. GBP/JPY and intwresting pair right now.
By the way I never deserted to the other side, had a quick look at advfn but ultimately lost interest in posting on the BBs

GBP/JPY still off 52 week low @ 125.54. Considering a short play...

Mays exit speech tomorrow, the markets have priced in a hard brexit but I wouldn't be surprised if she extends current plans. You negotiate from a position of strength not weakness and for her to champion anything else would be political suicide longer term!

What is next for £?
Many predicted $1 is the target.

I'm bullish on the pound right now. It's weak due to uncertainty not economic factors or M4 monetary expansion.

Wow! Check this basket full out: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/12/intraday.stm

The only currency with gbp to watch right now is the yen I think.