I thought it might be good to share something about my objectives and my investing style. I hope you find it of interest and generates some discussion as I think Moneyam needs something more at the moment.

I work full time so I’m an investor now. In general I do have time to check the markets during the day but there are days when I’m in meetings for hours on end and it’s not appropriate. This works well for me as stops me over-trading. I suspect I would make less if I sat at a computer all day trying to invest.

Please feel free to discuss you trading style and reflect on how I could improve what I do.

I have two pots. The first pot is my SIPP and I therefore consider I must invest this with extreme caution. I consider a return of 5-10% as acceptable and any more as a bonus. The second pot is my trading pot where I take more risk. I am looking for 10+% plus a year from this. I only invest in UK equities. I no longer trade CFD’s or spreadbets due to the nature of my job, although many years ago I made a living day-trading.

My performance over the last 6 years is as follows:
2010 -0.3%
2011 -34.8% (too little diversification, bad timing and not very pleasant)
2012 +70.7% (umm – too little diversification –just got the timing wrong on the previous years purchases)
2013 +36.8% (umm – still too little diversification but what do you do when you’re in the right trades??)
2014 +5.5% (diversification getting better but my biggest share-holding hurt me badly)
2015 +5.5% so far

I have a very simple trading style. My primary objective is to sell equities when Ftse is high and buy when it is low i.e. I choose my entry and exit point depending on whether Ftse is overbought or oversold. The choice of share is secondary.

I often buy stocks in a clear downtrend on chart support points when Ftse is beaten up on the premise that Ftse will turn up in a short time frame setting up a bounce for the stock. These stocks will generally also have attracted me because of fundamentals, dividends or I believe they are significantly oversold. I also like recovery stories with long circulating bid rumours. Sometimes I buy stocks after research leads me to believe the share is significantly undervalued – this can be very profitable but usually a great amount of patience is required.

So, to explain in more detail this year as Ftse moved up early in the year I started selling heavily as Ftse reached 6700. By the time it reached its peak I was 91% in cash. As it headed back down again in June I started buying again at 6700 and by the end of June as Ftse was around 6500 I was 95% invested. Clearly I haven’t called this that well this year based on the evidence but I’m comfortable about it as doing something was better than doing nothing. Ftse is down 3.8% year to date and I’m up 5.5%. I suspect most people would be pretty happy with that – I am.

Here is my portfolio. It’s quite unbalanced and deliberately so. It breaks a load of rules with regard to diversification
24.3% - Sorry but I can’t share this stock with you yet as it’s not that liquid and I’m still acquiring stock. I’ve done my research and honesty believe a doubling of share price in three years would be a really poor outcome.

14.8% RBS. Most of these I have acquired between 337 and 362 although I have a few from 307. Already sold a few from 307 last week and if I can get somewhere between 339 and 342 next week they will be gone too. Earlier in the year they were trading at 400 and there were no sellers in sight as it trudged up day after day from 380 to 400. I’m of the view that this will come back over time as the government require the banks to be strong and make profits so we don’t have another crisis. I intend to hold all of these for a while (except for the few I’m selling next week) and start off-loading around 385 and see what happens from there

8.3% RDSB. Like many PI’s I’ve got drawn in by the dividend and most of these were bought between 1845 and 2025. I have a few at 1598 from last week which I honestly thought would be far higher given the rise in oil this week. I think oil has a bit higher to run yet and I’m looking to sell the ones from 1598 soon as I’ve got a few too many. Not sure what to do about the rest but the dividend of around 6% helps.

6.3% VSVS. Provides products to the steel industry. I’m in this as I think there is/will be global move away from concrete to steel due to construction costs and environmental issues. I bought these a few months ago and I’m a few percent down at the moment which is pleasing given general state of Ftse. The share register is interesting and the price activity over the last few weeks intrigues me and I have a “feeling in my waters” we may see some rumours around this stock over the next few months.

6.1% HSP – Hargreaves Services. In some ways I wish I’d never heard of this stock and I’m 14% down on them at the moment although it was far worse. This is a case of me doing research, working out its undervalued and buying on the expectation others would realise this too. The market can remain irrational for some considerable time when it has a mind to! It got really bashed around recently on a trading update and then bounced significantly on its interims. Since it delivered what it would said it would in the trading update nothing ceases to surprise me any longer.
Surprisingly it fell last week as oil rose. Offering a 9% dividend with two-thirds of this already declared for next month. I’m hoping to scale back on this in the near future and if not I’m fairly relaxed due to the dividend

5.8% PFL. Premier Farnell. Famous for the Raspberry Pi although that’s not why I bought it. I bought about two-thirds between 170 and 180 because of the chart and I thought the euro would strengthen (which has proved to be correct but hasn’t helped). The other third I bought last week at 119 and if I can get somewhere between 133 and 138 next week I’m selling. They may go for less. I don’t really want this many and I’ve got my eye on a few other things (HMSO around 620 looks a much better place to be). 8% dividend if it can afford to maintain it which the city boys seem to doubt. I’m of the view it has sufficient cash to pay this for the moment but I guess won’t be surprised if it’s cut. We’ll know soon enough

5.8% SFR. Severfield. Steel again. I like the man in charge. I bought at 69p and it held up well until the last couple of days of the recent FTSE fall. It hit a brickwall at 70 and a huge amount of shares have changed hands there. It had just crept over when the ftse carnage started. It’s fallen to the current price on very little volume so hopefully it will bounce back on similar. Happy to hold as comfortable enough with where this is going long term

4.8% Weir. Industrial with large exposure to US shale industry. Has been bashed down and I bought in at 1725-1825. Got some more last week at 1264 so those are getting sold any day now as I’ve got enough of these and I don’t believe in averaging. Every trade should stand on its own. The dividend is just over 3%. There were takeover rumours earlier in the year when the price was around 1700 so I’m hoping they will get resurrected. I’m happy to hold the rest for a while and see what happens

4.4% SPHR. Sphere Medical. This is speculative part of my portfolio. The share that will make me rich or I’ll lose all my money on it. 10 bagger or bust! It makes blood gas analysers for an intensive care setting without drawing any blood from the patients and provides instant results. Pretty good as I understand in ICU up to 19 blood tests can be required a day from patients. I imagine its pretty good for paediatrics too where babies don’t have loads of blood to start with. The product is launched and is at an early stage in the sales curve. This was Neil Woodford’s first investment from WPCT and he continues to add to his holding. Shares are very tightly held. An upgrade to the analyser is on its way which is hoped will significantly change the sales profile. I can talk endlessly about this company if anyone is interested which is a really bad sign as I’m too attached to it.

3.5% INTU. Property. I have a small profit on this despite buying months ago and Ftse being bashed around. I guess I’m looking for a 10% rise and to collect the dividends as I go. Very safe.

3.3% TATE. I’ve got a small profit on this too. Trade hasn’t gone as well as planned and I’d like to start reducing if it goes up as little as 3%

3.1% Another nameless stock I’m afraid. Quite illiquid and I haven’t decided if I’ve finished accumulating or not. I’ll only be taking a little more if I do.

2.9% LLOY. Who wouldn’t have Lloyds in their portfolio? Some dividends and good potential for growth. Share price a bit disappointing of late but I bought this at 39p so it owes me nothing.

1.9% STAN. Bought most of these at 737 last week although the rest are dire and out of the money from 890. I’m not feeling comfortable with them. Not sure what to do which means I’ll probably let them go and then watch the stock fly

1.4% BG. Held these from 820 from before the bid and just watched. Part of the reason I need to reduce my RDSB

1.2% CSG. Cyril Sweet Group. Bought at 22p so basically flat although I had the chance to sell higher. Quite speculative.

0.6% BP The only thing I can say about this is that having bought at 484 I didn’t buy any more on the way down. The dividend eases the pain ;-) Actually I did once buy some more on the way down but I had the sense to get out for a tiny profit on them.

0.6% AV. Bought at 498p a few months ago and this is all that’s left after selling four fifths higher up, so this has been good to me

0.5% FENR. 12% down on this although it’s bounced. Not much to say – not my best trade. The dividend is good.

0.5% HSBC. Out of the money on this. Could have done better.

0.1% Cash – I’m fully invested with Ftse at 6200 as I write today. Whilst I may rotate my stocks around a bit as there are some bargains out there right now I’ll in general be staying fully invested until Ftse hits 6500. I’ll reappraise then. I may change my mind depending on the mood of the market

Reserved ..

On the basis that 5 years ago this type of post would have elicited 20 responses and there have been none things have definitely changed.

Not much life left here (nor anywhere else for that matter unless I'm missing something)

Interesting thread CC - and yes - it does look as though this site is in it's final death throes!

the fact is, that mam management really doesn't care

i tinker around on advfn occasionally, but the chart system especially is not very user-friendly ..... also, nearly all the threads are swamped with so many posts, much of it junk, that it's hard work

As you have mentioned things have changed and folks just are not trading full time or certainly not as many as say upto 5 years ago.Very few folks made some serious money from trading,some made a living but it was always made to look super sexy with the usual array of adverts with blondes in tow heading towards the Ferrari on the big mansion drive,of course its not like that but that is how it was all sold.

The internet has given the ability to offer many new services that can offer reasonable returns over what banks can offer and without the stress and screen watching that day trading requires.

Like yourself i traded full time for many years and not only did i enjoy it and made some money along the way,but just a few years back i decided that i had enough of watching screens 5 days a week and hung my trading hat up.

These days i much prefer to sleep at night and my money is working for me all the time,and i finally have a life back again.Trading was exciting years ago and also a very active community with most of the old names gone and moved onto pastures new.

MAM has certainly declined in not only reliability wise but also the active amount of traders,are the new owners going to pump a massive amount of new money into a service that is in general decline not only on this site but as a whole,the answer is of course not.

The new owners bought the package mainly for the profitable services and MAM as a few other have mentioned is not one of those services,what the long term plan is i have no idea but it certainly is way past its and wont ever gain its former glory back again.

With so many less stressful option available these days folks are diverting money into other investment area rather than the stressful trading option.

I still like using the site,but alas not many of the original folks are around these day,so although this thread may get some comments on about your portfolio etc,if you dont have the folks who trade anymore you will get even less comments than say 5 years back,if it was 10 years ago you would have had a multi page thread.

I think its called change/progress or what ever but the days of active trading are over i am afraid.

That's good comment above. The playing field is far from level to what it was say 10 years ago. Hedge funds can damage and carry on damaging a share. AIM is just over run with dodgy oilers/miners with a board full of hugely paid directors with matching egos going nowhere but downwards. Best waiting for the next bull market to get back in though most will probably be pushing up daisies when/if the next one ever comes around. Tend to stick to 3ukl and 3uks now after there's been a big move either way looking for a bounce. I agree why would a provider like MAM want to throw cash at a platform in what is a declining marketplace?

Very interesting and informative CC. Thanks for sharing. Like you I have a sipp and trading pot but tinker very little with these, just bank the divas and wait for my (generally poor) small caps to head north :-( Sadly I also lack the discipline to keep proper tabs on my returns and changing sipp providers doesn't help.
I like the simplicity of your strategy but like the herd I lack the ability/confidence to call a bottom or a top hence my lethargy. Do you do this by looking at the charts and if so what time frame do you prefer?
Agree all the comments re mam. I used to subscribe but now just dip in to check prices because I like the format and the BBs more than my broker alternatives.

Thanks guys. I guess I miss the feeling of a community and of friendship that used to be around 5 years ago. Things have certainly changed. I guess I became interested when pay as you go internet first appeared. Amazing to think we used to pay by the minute and it wasn't cheap. I remember the satellite dish Croc had in his garden - can't even remember what it was for - data feeds I think. It certainly was download data only.

I traded full time for years on dual channel ISDN and as the bulletin boards and resources grew more and more people got involved in shares. I guess it was a learning process and we were all having fun.

If I reflect on the shares people post on I realise I am in a completely different place than most. You will see I have INTU in my portfolio and I'm keen on HMSO at this price. It seems it's not popular to buy and hold a Ftse100 share but for me it works. I get a dividend, most likely I get some capital growth and FTSE100 stocks tend to range trade quite well. I don't have to worry about liquidity either.

If I think a little deeper it was the AGM for SFR today. Well Skinny posted the outcome here but nothing on ADVFN at all. It tells me all the PI's at the moment aren't interested. Maybe your'e right MB - maybe they are doing other things. Or maybe PI's don't trade shares any longer but have been encouraged to spreadbet their pots away.

I still like Moneyam because the BB hasn't been destroyed with crap but things need shaking up. I guess it's up to do that but I'm not sure AJ Bell are bothered.

CC, don't know if you saw this on the bugs thread -


dreamcatcher - 27 Aug 2015 18:22 - 151 of 192 edit this post
I have been in contact with AJ bell yesterday via email and had a response today .
I enjoy this site and am happy to carry on posting. :-))


We are currently working on a redesign both of the front end and the back end structures that run said front end. I am not at liberty to give details as yet but these issues are being addressed and major changes are underway in the background.

Kernow - I only make calls on the movement of the Ftse when it's really obvious because I don't want to not be in the market when we get the strong moves up. So, in 2011, 2012 and for most of 2013 I didn't make a single trade. I just left everything alone as I figured we were in a long term uptrend after the recession and I didn't want to miss out.

2014 and 2015 I have made some conscious decisions to scale in and out and at times sit on the sidelines. The charts are important but tbh I'm more interested in the mood of the market and how much is it overbought or oversold. right now I'm convinced that this is the buying opportunity of the year and Ftse will be well above this point by the end of the year. It's all about fear and greed, which repeats over and over.

Some of the things I see going on the last couple of weeks are beyond sense and alot of money is being made and lost here.

So, my strategy at the moment is:
1. Get out of a few positions where i've got too much stock and redistribute on some really cheap stuff. (AV. and HMSO look great to me but there are plenty out to choose from).
2. Do very little until Ftse hits 6500-6700 unless some of my trades come good unexpectedly in which case I may rotate some more.
3. At 6700 depending on how long it takes to get there think about converting 10% of portfolio to cash because there are always opportunities.
4. Can't plan further than that.
5. I may change my plan at an instant which I know some find frustrating

Thanks dreamcatcher. It's good to know there is some work going on behind the scenes.

I guess I'm more interested in AJ Bell taking a bit more of an active interest though. If they want this site to succeed, which I assume they do as then they can do some cross-selling it needs far more active users

Some of that content could come from us, but they need to make an effort to. I see they have an investors evening in Manchester. I thought about going along but it's a bit of a trek and the companies that are presenting aren't my type. I think it needs something else to entice me to go. I've thought about offering to do half an hour myself about my experiences as a trader or an investor but why should I bother? What am I getting out of it? Would people find it interesting?

And then finally I read the advert more closely and discovered it starts at 18:00 and surely that's going to exclude anyone who has to travel any distance. I used to travel regularly to Manchester to meet up with Ruth, Choccie and the crew but I think we used to meet about 7:30.

Sorry to have taken your thread of subject CC. If your thread had a counter on it, you would be surprised how many do indeed read it. I think there are far more readers than posters. Great thread by the way. :-))

You seem to have an over diversified portfolio.
I do trading full time ( for 8 years ) but recently just go long and short with FRES
( Fresnillo ), one share only. I use CFD's only

Almost every trade ( in and out ) I make a profit - last 17 trades over about 8 weeks,
I have about - 15 gains 2 losses
The 2 losses were heavy because of China, but overall am doing OK.
I keep an eye on gold and silver commodity prices and news etc
I agree that once I am holding a position it can be tedious watching a screen all day,
but if I make good money that week I feel good.

to digress but slightly ......
one of the major reasons mam has lost its way is, to a large extent, due to the banning of a couple of major contributors to the site several months ago
that they were both very stupid and to a large extent brought about their own banishment is almost without question

however, the site is unquestionably much poorer without them, and if the management would be rather less stiff-necked, it would be beneficial to all to welcome them both back

CC

A good try with the Portfolio strategy, it seems profitable for you, but it will not get you rich lets say, reason......... too cautious on avoiding risks rewards and playing it too safe for my liking.

I do lots of trading for decades now and always have been on the risk side with plenty of upside
Lately on BOX ( uptrend ) CEB ( still uptrend ), CPX ( having a rest ) and TERN ( new Breakout today ) to say the best lately.

But good luck with you way of investing

re - get the devil back

How much would you get paid for that? ........cynic ........ 30 silver coins.

you have try it too many times on this subject

talk (post ) about the subject ........ My portfolio with commentary

But much of what you trade Mentor is pretty illiquid so unless it is pennies you are after then surely much is stacked against you? Huge spreads, tiny market size and SEAQ where MMs control things to please their own agenda (pockets). Get one right and things are good, one wrong and you're hung out by the cowboys (MMs).

cp1

there is always excuses when someone is shall I say "full of jealousy"!

re - unless it is pennies

what is pennies for you £647 gain at a time or is £867 or £573 or £865 or £442 ( today ) all this gains are on BOX since 5 June 2015
Being on an UPTREND situation, there is retracement all the time, get the timing right and you are on the money.
btw all the BOX trades were from T+10 to T+20 and close them before time, like today closed at T+12, so I made large profit without paying for the stock..

I am sure I have more experience that you, or any other around here to say a bit more than I want to.
I use profits, TA and momentum on the timing of buying in and use all type of stocks, some larger than others, so if they are less liquid, I buy less £ amount, but not very often buy large companies, cuz the return are too small most of the time for my way of return expectations.

I try not to overdo the buying, apart from a Portfolio of growing stocks, I have a few open positions at a time mostly T+20, today sold BOX and bought again CPX @ 5.675p now they are paying 5.79p and rising, only 1MM left @ 5.80p

cp1 - don't argue! .... mentor (and his other aliases) reckons he's God and brooks no contrariness

Mentor I doubt you are that good as you wouldn't be bothering posting on a BB about bargain bucket stocks.
I've done fine over the years but not really into the self appraising and chest beating and certainly no need to buy anything unless it stands out a mile - and nowt does as the world (imo) is entering the next serious chapter of financial Armageddon. Suppose it's like the bloke in the bookies telling you about his 10/1 winner last week whilst he's quietly filled yet another waste paper basket up with screwed up slips. I'm sure life's great for you mind.

cp1

the only think you can doubt is of "cynic" posting, what I post is what is happening no more no less.

The "proof is on the pudding" look at the past post, where I was saying when buying and when selling, I stop a bit now cuz, you should know by now, ...............

(cynic) tries to follow me around and copy my buys and then argue with himself, he reckons is what

You went to fast in answering without doing the research of my past record on how well I am doing.

so you only get the answer for your " pennies problem", maybe that is the amount of money you invest. Now get sorted, and if you want me to believe your " I've done fine over the years" ......... start posting your buys otherwise, another waster on the list ..... big mouth but no t

why can't he stick to talking to himself on the monitise thread.

i have more painful ideas for him :-)

Manuel,

Post 23,

Stop admiring yourself in the mirror!

No wonder this site has gone to the dogs LOL!!!

Thank you CC for posting your thoughts.

I think the simple answer is that we're all getting older! Also, there are so many abusive posts which are very tedious. I had missed the AJ Bell purchase so will watch with interest. These days I invest mostly in income stocks, the exceptions being EZJ and FDM which i dip in and out of. I presume most serious investors will belong to a local, convivial, group so less need for MAM

"I think the simple answer is that we're all getting older!"

I resemble that remark!

I heard that , pardon .

I'll have halve!

I've had a laugh too .

So apart from Mentor (who appears to only ever have winners) most of us are getting older and wiser to the shenanigans of Mr market and have found other alternative investments. Just make sure you don't run out of life to spend all your winnings Mentor...

All clear as mud these markets, 100+ point rally yesterday, followed by 100+ point fall this morning - all down to... erm!

MAM

how dare you deleting "cynic" post?

and he thought was a prophet and do as he pleases

"Our God is in heaven; he does whatever pleases him."

not any longer it seems

All,

We have had to remove a few postings from this thread - can we all please just stay on topic,

Thanks

Ian

right to the top thread Guys, not left

Ian if you removed some then remove all the rubbish why just the last two .

And mine was telling CC i had read his initial posting and telling the others to go elsewhere and row .

jimmy b

"cynic" post used an Inflammatory word, so they removed the last 4 post

I said to him yesterday>>>>>>
talk (post ) about the subject ......> My portfolio with commentary

an on the subject then

Trades today

I sold VAST @ 1.55p ( went over the upper Bollinger Band ) sell signal
Bought CEB @ 0.677p ( it seems retracement being completed )

i am greatly amused at the choice of deletions, and not for any obvious reasons either
sure as hell won't lose any sleep over it
using"hell" will probably merit the deletion of this post too, for blasphemy :-)

Hell Cynic!

Watch out!

you're right ..... the sheep are out to gum me to death :-)

did you notice someone always has to have the last word?

about time he pays for the sins, so Hell would be just the right place, if hell exist.

glad my buy is doing OK, there is a seller about, so needs a bit of time to get the strait up line.

Justin from share pickers admits he is now in CEB after reading this thread ( only half true )

yes I did notice mentor :-)

“SELL in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger Day”

Should you buy again on St Leger Day?

Perhaps we should have more faith in the old US stock market adage.

Sorry been too busy for a few days to respond but thanks for all the posts. It shows this BB is not dead and I'm quite happy if people want to wander off topic as long as it isn't abusive.

I'll reply a bit more when I have time but things going vaguely to plan since my last post. Sold a few RBS as planned and managed to get a good price for a third of my TATE which I've put on HSMO.

I could do with oil going up and staying up for a couple of days. I'd like to get out of a few RDSB and WEIR and got my radar on a whole variety of stocks which look cheap.

SPHR starting to look interesting. I'll post separately on that

My today's trades so far

Close DAN on a T+4 @ 2.02p for a profit of 11%
Reason: no follow through this morning and over the top Bollinger Band and only a couple days left to close or pay.

Bought MONI T+20 @ 2.61p
Reasons : Looks like the drop at this point is overdone with market cap £56M is well below Cash £88M. Buyers are back and order book getting stronger from time to time, meaning ready to bounce back

for myself, of late, i have found FTSE and DOW (in particular) much more fruitful areas of investment (betting!) than individual stocks - see that specific thread

of invidual stocks, i recently bought BOO and that looks as though it will be very profitable - already well in the money and may possibly add

i also hold, perhaps for more long term SN., MBH, TEF and EZJ

as a sleeper, i also hold RM2, whose product is very interesting and i think has very good possibilities of success

An on the latest strategy sell on buy one...............

I was not greedy on CEB and got almost 0.12p or 17.5% on 5 days close on T+15, took advantage of the spike at the time ( though got higher since ) to sell.

but TERN was just ripe and open another position at 18.75p on a T+20 ( very hard to get as they wanted premium 19.50p but finally got it on the phone.

wanted to get in earlier on TERN, but CEB was starting to go better so I pause till got right for both.

--
chart done yesterday

Time for an update. I'm now down 3% for the year. A bit disappointing but recoverable. Probably I've been lucky as I made some decent money on RSA and was then able to buy some other stuff cheap. I've been moving my stocks around a bit.

My portfolio now stands as follows as sales prices:
1. CTO T.Clarke 37.0%
2. RBS Royal Bank of Scotland 14.1%
3. RDSB Shell 7.4%
4. VSVS Vesuvius 5.8%
5. NMD North Midland Constr 5.8%
6. SFR Severfield 5.5%
7. HSP Hargreaves Services 3.8%
8. SPHR Sphere Medical 3.5%
9. LLOY LLoyds 3.0%
10. WEIR Weir 3.0%
11. PFL Premier Farnell 2.8%
12. STAN Standard Chartered 1.8%
13. INTU Intu Properties 1.7%
14. BG. BG Group 1.5%
15. CSG Cryril Sweet 1.3%
16. AV. Aviva 0.6%
17. BP. BP 0.6%
18. HSBA HSBA 0.5%
19. FENR FENR 0.4%
20. Cash 0.1%

Obviously I've got a very good feeling about CTO. I used to work in this sector and understand it well. I plan to hold for 3 years and I'm looking forward to dividend and capital growth. I've been quietly picking up the stock for 18 months and I'm now maxed out on it.

I've got 3 problem stocks WEIR, PFL and SPHR. SPHR I'm not worrying about as I went into it with my eyes open and was risky. PFL has stabilised and isn't falling any longer so I'll hold on a while longer. WEIR is worrying me

After today my portfolio is only (rofl) 1% down now this year. Maybe the Santa rally will scrape me into profit.

I suppose I'm outperforming FTSE but that's little comfort.

I'll post a proper update over the Christmas break

So the year ends and I'm 1.8% down for the year (ignoring the tax benefit of my SIPP contribution as it hardly seems fair to include that in my performance)

My SIPP up 17.7%, wife's SIPP up 31.9%, trading pot down 7.1% which reflects the greater risk in the trading pot. At least I made the money in the right place!

Portfolio is now as follows (at sales values)
1. CTO T.Clarke 39.6%
2. RBS Royal Bank of Scotland 13.0%
3. RDSB Shell 6.6%
4. SFR Severfield 5.9%
5. NMD North Midland Constr 5.8%
6. VSVS Vesuvius 5.5%
7. LLOY LLoyds 3.9%
8. WEIR Weir 3.6%
9. SPHR Sphere Medical 3.5
10. HSP Hargreaves Services 3.8%
11. PFL Premier Farnell 2.6%
12. STAN Standard Chartered 1.8%
13. BG. BG Group 1.4%
14. CSG Cryril Sweet 1.2%
15. Barclays 1.1%
16. BP. BP 0.6%
17. HSBA HSBA 0.5%
18. FENR FENR 0.4%
19. Cash 0.1%

I made some decent profits at the start of the year and decided to invest them in some risky stuff, none of which has worked out and have been in and out of a few trades since which have helped out.

Looking forward to this year I'm comfortable with the banks and happy enough with the commodity related stocks as whilst they may fall some more I think we are near enough the bottom and I get some decent dividends on them. I obviously have far too much CTO for a balanced portfolio but I'm not going to sell any of them as I think it's still way undervalued.

Not happy with PFL and SPHR but will hold on a bit longer and see what happens

I am a little surprised but I am up a 30+%


My holdings are mainly :

Exchange EPIC Name Close Sector Subsector Projected Dividend Dividend cover
LSE EZJ easyJet PLC 17.4 Travel & Leisure Airlines 60.297 2.5
LSE IAG International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 6.105 Travel & Leisure Airlines 13.776
LSE AHT Ashtead Group PLC 11.19 Support Services Business Support Services 17.122 3.6
LSE CLLN Carillion PLC 3.029 Support Services Business Support Services 18.3 1.4
LSE CNCT Connect Group PLC 1.6825 Support Services Business Support Services 9.499 1.9
LSE SHI SIG PLC 1.436 Support Services Industrial Suppliers 4.648 2.5
LSE EPO Earthport PLC 0.2475 Software & Computer Services Internet
LSE GLEN Glencore PLC 0.9048 Mining General Mining 4.806 1.2
LSE LMI Lonmin PLC 0.835 Mining Platinum & Precious Metals
LSE AV. Aviva PLC 5.16 Life Insurance Life Insurance 21.938 2.8
LSE OML Old Mutual PLC 1.789 Life Insurance Life Insurance 9.4 1.7
LSE BDEV Barratt Developments PLC 6.26 Household Goods & Home Construction Home Construction 30.6 3
LSE BWY Bellway PLC 28.36 Household Goods & Home Construction Home Construction 90 2.9
LSE BKG Berkeley Group Holdings (The) PLC 36.88 Household Goods & Home Construction Home Construction 200 1.5
LSE BVS Bovis Homes Group PLC 10.15 Household Goods & Home Construction Home Construction 40 2.2
LSE RDW Redrow PLC 4.701 Household Goods & Home Construction Home Construction 9 7.4
LSE TW. Taylor Wimpey PLC 2.031 Household Goods & Home Construction Home Construction 9.369 7.4
LSE TEP Telecom plus PLC 10.71 Fixed Line Telecommunications Fixed Line Telecommunications 46 1
LSE CLIG City of London Investment Group PLC 3.245 Financial Services Asset Managers 24 1.1
LSE AXS Accsys Technologies PLC 0.6763 Construction & Materials Building Materials & Fixtures
LSE BARC Barclays PLC 2.189 Banks Banks 6.5 0.3
LSE LLOY Lloyds Banking Group PLC 0.7307 Banks Banks 2.21 2.5


EPO, AXS, BARC, GLEN SHI have done me no favours. Accepted CLIG yields.

Happy with Construction and house builders for short term longer. Bought a few more GLEN for 2years out????? and will hold BARCS and watch EZJ and IAG and AHT.

-=-=-=-=

Should have made more, but anxiety outweighed over greed.

A bit too heavy in TW.

Tossing a coin and will look for another bed for some.
-=-=-=-=-=

Good luck next year.

We may need it.

Not in CSN I notice Fred?

Stan,

Have held CSN and got out with a profit, but could have held longer and taken more.

Like its yield, but not its spread.

Can use stop sell, but it is still on my watch list.

It seems to be trading sideways at the moment and forecasts (if they are ever right).

? div is about 4 months out.

May consider parking a bit in it later.

Thanks for the posts, both of you. It might seem like a punt into the ether but I for one am following. No stats from me as I rely on my sipp and share broker figures later in the year.

Well done Fred. 30+% up - that's fantastic. You're clearly in the right sectors at the right time.

I'm sure the construction, housebuilding and associated suppliers have further to go yet.

Kernow.

You can set up the portfolio on moneyam to follow the daily weekly vagaries of various portfolios.

To keep it "private" enter no of shares etc. with a multiple or +or- a share or two.

Cross ref. with epic, to your charting program on moneyam will allow you follow the charts, but there are others which allow you to follow major indicators etc.

Good luck, I hope mine holds up!

8-)

One week into the new year and 0.2% down this year. Getting panned on RDSB in particular. All losses on all stocks getting covered by CTO which is a star and has been rising all week. CTO now 42.7% of my portfolio and it's going up whilst everything else is falling.

So far this year up 6.1%. Could be better, could have been alot worse as I was 100% invested and heavy on construction when the country decided to Brexit . I'm sitting on some decent sized losses on RBS in particular.

Up until Brexit I did a bit of range trading on RBS,HSBA,VSVS and WEIR. Nothing substantial. Bought a few more CTO.

My main changes took place immediately after Brexit. I sold out of CSG and PFL as they were subject to takeovers and sold my entire third largest holding RDSB between £20-21 as I figured the move on cable was overdone and there was better value elsewhere.
All the cash I generated from this I put on ALD, SHAW, PSN and TW., BLND, AV., LGEN. All have done really well for me, in particular SHAW. I still hold all of them. ALD, SHAW,AV., LGEN I believe have much further to rise. The others I don't think have much more than 10% left in them now but have good dividend yields and I see little downside

I am 98.4% in shares and 1.6% in cash. I plan to free up some cash over the next 4-6 months depending on how frisky the FTSE gets in order to have some ammunition when more Brexit volatility occurs.

Portfolio is now as follows (at sales values)
1. CTO T.Clarke 34.6%
2. RBS Royal Bank of Scotland 8.4%
3. SHAW Shawbrook 7.5%
4. NMD North Midland Constr 5.8%
5. VSVS Vesuvius 5.2%
6. SFR Severfield 5.0%
7. ALD Aldermore 4.3%
8. SPHR Sphere Medical 3.8%
9. HSP Hargreaves Services 3.4%
10. WEIR Weir 3.0%
11. LLOY LLoyds 2.9%
12. TW. Taylor Woodrow 2.8%
13. BLND British Land 2.1%
14. AV. Aviva 2.0%
15. PSN Persimmon 2.0%
16. STAN Standard Chartered 1.9%
17. LGEN Legal & General 1.3%
18. Barclays 0.8%
19. BP. BP 0.6%
20. HSBA HSBA 0.5%
21. FENR FENR 0.4%
19. Cash 1.6%

In 2016 I made 10.6% which I'm happy with as after Brexit things didn't' look good at all as I took a big bashing on my largest holding CTO. RBS wasn't much fun either although I traded in and out lower down for a few quid here and there.

Since then things have gone well. I'm sitting on some great profits on ALD, SHAW and NMD and everything else looks good apart from CTO and SPHR. CTO will come back I'm sure of it. SPHR could be a problem but I don't think I'm likely to lose much more.

Things going well this year and 20% up so far.

Thanks to some useful advice I largely managed to keep hold of all my trades taken out a couple of days after Brexit and the construction and banking sector has come back extremely well.

I have kept all my CTO, NMD, SHAW, ALD, SFR, RBS, LLOY, HSP and having been almost 0% in cash since Brexit have started to sell a few things over the last 2-3 weeks.

AV., LGEN, PSN, BARC, FENR all sold, VSVS and WEIR partially sold. SPHR worse trade in my portfolio and my only real issue.

I'm now 9.5% in cash and want to raise this to 20-30% as I'm concerned something is going to fall apart in the next 3 months. Maybe Trump, maybe Euro elections, maybe Brexit but my gut says the market is getting too comfortable.

I'm not sure what to sell though. I'm happily running my winners and think there is still significant upside.

My other concern is CTO is now 40% of my portfolio, which is not a place I really want to be. I'm not planning to sell any so, it may get higher yet.

Perhaps worth a look.

CC.
I understand the uncertainty expressed.
I have similar holdings.
Would like to know when to jump.

=-=-===-==
AHT, TW. BDEV, BWY, BKG, BVS, CRST, RDW (Overall doing well)

IRV, CLLN (I hold in hope, Might bounce at 196?.)

BARC, LLOY (Bought and sold, and hold, I think worth holding.)

GLEN (doing well, cursing for not buying a little earlier than I did)

AV., OML doing quite well.

TEP. Surprising me, going by charts.

CLIG, (Dividends are saving it, but seems to be beginning to stir.)

AZN, (New drug licences.)


CARD (Cast your eye over this one. Wish I held more.)

IAG, EZJ (umm, if the world cools down and Trump disappears may do well.)

CLIG (Dividend is saving it.)

GKN, W/S (hoping for 400+)

CNCT. (Cursing, but waiting)

AXS, EPO, hold for 2years more and guessing.

SHI, (I shall bequeath this to somebody as a reminder of greed.)

Cash now up to 12.6%, although SHAW now subject to takeover so I'm holding that in hope of a higher offer.

All my PSN and half my TW. sold. All VSVS gone too one the day after results. I did sell most of my WEIR but bought half of them back on one day of overenthusiastic trading - a poor decision.

All my lot that were in profit sold now, waiting for the spirit to move me now.

i only dabble with trading stocks now, but SIPP as below
i have been managing that myself for the last 18 months or so, but i have no idea offhand which may have been held from the outset

anyway .....

humdinger FEVR

strong winners GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, BOO, BATS, IQE, TW., TLW

winners AMER, DOM, GVC, JII, PLP, RDSB, WPP

ok performers AAL, CINE, RTN, RMV, WTB

weak performers BVIC, ITV, KAZ, LLOY, TEF,

losers BVS, CPX, GWPH, HFD, MBH

stinkers AFC, KIN, RM2, TUNG

Crumbs that's a lot so is Fred's.

Nothing wrong with diversification. Not that I do it!

I'm currently up 36% this year with reflects largely being in construction, banks.

I have:
CTO 46% of portfolio (trade going well, most of it up between 20% and 50%. Some of it up a bit more even after dividends). Happy to sit in for ages

NMD 10%. Bought at 110. Now 325. What a star

RBS 8%. Down about 30%

SHAW 8%. Bought at 133. Now 340. Takeover in progress.

HSP 5%. Breakeven. Waste of capital to date but I'm hopeful

SFR 5% Up about 30%. Happy to hold

ALD 5%. Wish I had more. Bought around 110. Now 255. No reason to sell

WEIR 2%. Up a couple of percent.

LLOY 2%. I have some that have doubled but most I'm losing on if I don't count the dividends

SPHR 2%. Wish I'd never heard of it. Down more than 50% and that's after trading in and out to get some back

A few other bits, some up and down and 5% cash.

I desperately want to increase my cash holding but riding the trendline is working for me.

my sipp is a reasonable size, but yes i agree, there's now an argument for not adding further stocks

I remember what I think is very good advice for anyone dealing in shares from a poster on here called Juzzle, and I'm sure he won't mind me quoting him.

"In sharedealing, I believe in doing what works - and I have found what works for me. That, in my opinion, is what everyone should do - find what works for you, regardless of whatever others say, and regardless of what I say! "

I disagree!

8-)

-=-=-=

Must admit my holdings have done well, but feel apprehensive.

BARC, CNCT, weren't clever. CLLN, CLG yield is protecting and I expect a rebound. IRV likewise, bit irritated by dropping of div.

The timing of "latters" could have been better.

CC - what's so exciting about CTO that you stuck so much in there? .... i've just looked at the charts, inc 5-year, and they really are uninspiring

Says Fred , the fat cat capitalist who bought all those gas,water , power and Royal Mail shares.

Oh shut up Aldgit you prize Pratt.

Stan

Do you want to stay in the EU , did you vote BREXIT ? you haven't given your friend Red Fred any support i see. Are you another champaign socialist ?

How long did you take to compose your elegant reply to my post, you are such wordsmith .

Give stan a kiss and make up. :-))

or blow him a kiss. lol

Elegance? And what would you know about that aldgit..your a laugh a minute.

And as for you D/C..keep your big conk out of it http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K68MkzDbkS4/TxWsHgolGTI/AAAAAAAAArA/EDWCOKyyIJ0/s400/Funny+Nose+Picture+%252813%2529.jpg


😜

Stan that does not look like a nose. :-))

Well if it's not your nose what is it? 😃

It's what's on top of your head Stan

Your being one stan. lol,

Why I like CTO

Financial year end Dec 2016
Cash £12.3m, revolving credit facility drawn £3.0m = Net Cash £9.3m
Interest paid in year £0.1m, in-line with revolving credit facility suggesting debt does not exceed £3.0m at any point in year
Underlying profit £6.2m, Reported £3.7m. Difference due to £2.7m fraud
EPS underlying 11.7p, reported 6.9p

Current dividend 3.2p. Yield 3.7%. In order triple the dividend to 10p, if 30% of pre-tax profits distributed (50% retained, 30% dividends, 20% corporation tax), pre-tax profit of £14m is required.
As company has nearly no debt, pre-tax profits service pension deficit, acquisition and shareholders. Pension deficit is £20m but agreement with pension trustees in place to fix by 2029 and payment profile similar to recovery payment in 2016.
Order book up 22% compared with this time last year. Margins improving driven by market recovery but more importantly by improving product mix and vertical integration.
In February company stated would beat analysts expectations for year and re-affirmed same in May. Not unreasonable to suggest an underlying profit of £9m for 2017.
£9m profit this year = £6.5m free cash flow assuming only minimal rise in dividend in 2017 as strengthening balance sheet and building cash for acquisition more important in short term than dividends. Would give £15.8m net cash by end of year.
By this time next year net cash will be £20m and what are they going to do with it? CTO used to pay dividend of 13p back in 2008. By 2020 if they get to £14m profit by then, if they don’t increase the dividend net cash will be £32.5m or 95p per share (recognizing that pension fund deficit will still exist, although I expect annuity rates to recover in this timeframe)
Downside Brexit apparently. Upside is government get hold of PSBR and are able to fund increased capital spend.

Think within 3 years worst case scenario is 50% upside, best case a multi-bagger.

Half year results will be interesting but we will have to wait until year end until we see the full picture. The management team imho are excessively cautious at half year to give themselves some slack in case the second half does not go well

A good year for me. 30.2% up overall although most of the money was made in the first half.

Takeovers on SHAW, ALD and INTU showed just how undervalued some of the stocks I hold are.

CTO my biggest holding I was desperately disappointed in this year but it was up 37%. I still think it's massively undervalued but Mr. Market does not yet agree.

NMD was up a mere 78% this year and has now tripled since I bought it. I continue to hold as it's got a long way to go yet.

The banks were good to me although I'm still running a loss on RBS. I've sold out of everything oil and oil related, my remaining builders and stuck the money on more CTO, INTU, LWB and PCF.

SPHR turned out to be a disaster and in 2 years the management managed to reduce the share value by 100%. I sold out before it completely fell apart with around a 85% loss and lessons learnt.

Mostly my success this year was due to being nearly 100% invested in the market as confidence rose post Brexit and being in Brexit sensitive stocks. I continue to believe there is further to run with these.

I finish the year with 2% cash. My biggest holdings are as follows at the current share price.

CTO 49.6%. (Need to think about the size of this holding as I've been saying for the last 2 years but with a 37% rise in 2017 and I feel somewhere between 25% and 50% in 2018 I'm not inclined to do anything but sit tight)
NMD 8.4%
INTU 7.6% (subject to merger with HMSO)
ALD 7.0% (takeover completing soon so can convert to cash anytime I want)
RBS 6.6% (all the stock beginning with a 1 and 2 now sold so reducing on this as the price rises)
SFR 3.8%
PCF 3.6%
LWB 2.8%

Rest of it is all pretty small. Some Lloyds, Burford Bonds, HSP, BLND, SBRE, STAN and a dog called GPH which was one of the worst IPO's of the year.

Update. The first four months has seen me continuing to think about removing risk from my portfolio as I move into that area of life when I think more and more about retirement.

I've gave up my job last summer so now I live off my investment and trading income. I have discovered my income from day-trading to be poor. I am making a little but it is scarcely worth the time and effort and distracts from from investment portfolio. Interestingly since I have stopped trying to make money day-trading it's going much better but I'm only now placing trades when I can't lose (lol). The number of day-trades I'm placing is falling and falling.

Portfolio looks like this now.

CTO 51.6% . It's all very disappointing. Clearly the size of my holding would suggest I have a very high level of conviction on this trade but I've now been waiting for the market to re-rate for 4 years and it's not happening. The dividend is getting higher, the P/E is getting lower, the cash pile is getting bigger and net assets are going up yet the share price is stuck. I'm in profit overall and the dividends are nice but my level of patience is being tested. Despite the size of my holding I shall continue to hold as all the metrics continue to look good for the future. I believe this stock has been a victim of MIFID II which is nice as I've been able to buy lots of stock at good prices, but it's apparent the impact of this is still working it's way through.

I'm stuck with collecting the dividend and a flat share price until such time as the P/E ratio and cash pile create a share register with long term holders and a high level of conviction in the company.

NMD 8.2%. Although I've more or less tripled my money on this, it's another stock where I daily look at the share price and wait for reality to set in. I am hopeful though, the interims which are about 4 months away and I think they will make the difference. Will hold for 3-5 years

ALD takeover got completed and half got spent on tax. Ouch.

RBS 6.4%. Getting fed up with RBS. AT 300p I was beginning to feel more relaxed about it. I'm running a loss except for those bought in 2011 and more frustratingly no dividend which means the real cost of holding is even higher. I would be happy to sell if and when it can get a bit of upward momentum. I expect I'll still be holding in a years time

INTU 5.8%. I'm in at decent prices with a average yield above 6% and some higher. The market has decided that rent reviews in future won't be good. I disagree and even if I were to agree I suggest it's already in the share price. Happy to collect my dividends and wait for market to take a different outlook on rent reviews which I think may take in excess of a year

PCF 5.2%. Happy to say that the increase in portfolio percentage is because the share price is going up not because I've bought any more. Well I did buy a tiny amount more but nothing significant. This is going to be my wonder trade to replace ALD and SHAW and I'm thinking of holding for 5-10 years.

Fixed interest bonds 5.1%. Giving me 5% interest with expiry dates from 2 years to 8 years. Plan to raise this element over the next 2 years to 10% of my portfolio.

SFR 3.8%. This is slow going. It goes up, it comes down, it goes up, it comes back down again. Happy to hold but if it went up 30% I'd start selling

LWB 3.5% Recovery play currently awaiting the management to deliver. I'm looking for about a 50% rise in the next 18 months

HSP 3.2%. Looking for another 5% on this to sell some more. Already sold some last year and I don't have a long term commitment to this trade.

LLOY 2.6%. Well who wouldn't. Decent dividend. Decent share buy back in place. Ain't going to make me rich but slow and steady sometimes wins the race. I'll probably be still holding these in 10 years time. Some I've had 7 years already and they have treated me well.

Nothing else higher than 2.5%. A variety of different sectors but all FTSE100 or FTSE250 or just outside


As of yesterday I'm pretty much 100% invested. As you can see I'm mostly UK Brexit sensitive stocks with LWB the only exception. I think this is the place to be for the next 5 years.

CTO
i see that MAM management still can't be arsed to sort out the chart problem!

i have no idea of the size of your pension pot, but 50% in a small drinks(?) stock like this does not look the most prudent


LLOY
i got seriously bored with this one, and chucked it out of my own sipp a/c just a few days ago

why would you also hold RBS in what is not the greatest of sectors anyway?


i don't know the size of your pot or how reliant you are upon it to produce the sort of return you think you need - i'm several years older than you, but my circumstances may be very different

That said, i'm very surprised to see no exposure to USA nor to base metal producers (BLT, KAZ et al)
the US economy is looking good despite that dreadful president, and when world economies strengthen, base metals (especially copper = KAZ) are major beneficiaries

I'm 50 now, own the house, have no debts etc. A 5% return a year would mean some erosion of my capital until the kids complete University, ignoring any money I make day-trading. Thereafter 5% a year is enough for my capital to keep increasing but not as much as inflation and of course 2 state pensions will kick in at 67 plus my wife has a small defined benefit scheme.

The chancellor has been helpful. Being able to put £2x20k into an ISA each year with all that income tax free means is extremely generous and means over time less and less of my capital is eroded by inflation.


CTO is construction !?! I agree. It's not prudent and it is something I will have to do something about over time. If I were giving advice to someone I'd tell them to sort it out immediately! The increase I'm looking for in fixed interest will have to come from here.

RBS - fair enough. I'm holding mostly because I think it will re-rate once they start to pay a dividend again. This has been a very successful strategy for me in the past. I'm not overly attached to it and do wonder if I could get more return for my money elsewhere as their ability to not deliver goes on and on.

Lack of diversification. Agreed. I tend to invest in what I know and understand and this has served me well over the years. My attempts to move out of my comfort zone almost always results in losses so I carry on with what I know. Some further thought required on this

you are just a babe in arms compared to me

anyway,having had too many disasters on the stock market to count, far be it for me to comment on your choice of investment stocks and lack of will to chuck out non-performers, but honestly ........!!!

May completed the AGM reporting season and transformed my progress this year.

Up 8.5% so far this year thanks to good AGM updates from my twp biggest holdings CTO & NMD. PCF going wonderfully well too, up about a third over the last month or two.

June proved to by an annoying month. My bank shares headed down as did most of everything else to be honest although I had a decent number of stocks manage to stay still which kind of made the pain more bearable and I've picked up lots of MARS for the future


My largest holding CTO which for the last 4 years has been slow, steady, boring, reliable, robust, meets or beats management expectations has changed.

An aggrieved ex-employee has been posting that the company is under investigation by HMRC for any number of things going back several years. I assume he is short. It's all complete fiction of course, but he persists and assures us the Evening Standard will be running the story soon. He's got emails too which he's "taken without asking" and he posts these too. They prove nothing but I guess they are enough to persuade some to find another home for their money. Clearly he doesn't require a reference.
More recently he is saying the company are under investigation by HMRC for posting too much profits. I'm sure any company paying too much tax is at the bottom of HMRC's list not the top of it but he persists.

Anyways he's manged to get the price down 2.2% so far which is about the same as everything else at the moment and I trust he'll disappear once he gets margin called by his spread bet company. I'm trying to figure out whether he's actually done me a favour as the volume has increased about 10 fold and despite his best efforts the price now looks like it's about to rise. I hope his shorts get fried.


NMD continues on its' usual way. Directors continue buying as do the large shareholders. Price not really moving but we are getting to the point one wonders where the sellers are getting their shares from

CTO is a big % - but IMHO ( WhaddIKnow), there is no upside. CTO just plod along - it's unlike Biotech where they plod with some "potential" - my OXB is a large % and just maybe they've put the Begging-Bowl away, with 2-income streams of Products using their Lenticular...thingy. This has massively increased the "potential" as it's (almost) visible...whilst it has somewhat reduced two Risks, 1=Run out of money. 2=Drug-Trial failure . . . both of these are harmful for investors.... but back to CTO - I just don't see any huge upside, unless you are hoping for the sp to raise its head above yr averaged price. Even if a BIG Build is ann. by UK-Gov.... what % will CTO get and it will be years before construction starts. IMHO. CTO should be into Robotics, so they can work 24/7 with a much smaller skill-set....I don't hold.
You have LLOY - (& I) which may do well, but Bankers are never going to be trusted again - and there are Internet juniors snapping. BP is in a reducing market -except their purchase of the Electric Charging Co (last week), which may have been "Brilliant" ...as their foray into Solar has been so long ....everyone's forgotten.
Good Luck.

Monthly update - July was another frustrating month with reporting season underway. I am now 2.6% up for the year and most of my shares are stuck in a rut slowly falling as Brexit and trade wars issues roll on and on.

I have a few which seem to be just falling and falling (INTU and MARS) where the downtrend line is beginning to annoy me. MARS surely can't fall much further as the dividend yield has hit 8.13%, INTU could fall more although it's now supported by a dividend yield of 8.39%.

Looking forward for August I have results for 3 big holdings coming up. RBS I'm not sure about. CTO's and NMD I'm pretty confident about. CTO is most important to me as it's my biggest holding. The results will at worst definitely be in line and the interim dividend raised by 16%.

I am trying to decide what to do about my unbalanced portfolio. The lack of commodities has hurt it's performance over the last year as I sold out all my RDSB some time ago.





Hangon - you made some observations on CTO. Part of the struggle with the share price is that their is little analyst coverage given the market cap of £35m and it's bundled into the construction sector. Whilst it's true they do the largest high profile projects in the UK particularly in London, they are diversifying away from this towards higher margin products where they compete on skills and reputation rather than price. It also smooths out the economic cycle.
My trade isn't based on government or private sector spending in construction although that would nice. It's more about leveraging the brand into FM and tech heavy areas where the margins are better and there's repeat business.

Examples here:
http://www.tclarke.co.uk/news/an-interview-with-eton-associates-director-jamie-ward
http://www.tclarke.co.uk/news/tclarke-climate-solutions-the-complete-service

for myself, i was very happy to note that my sipp gain over the last fiscal year was almost exactly 25%

for the current fiscal year, i can't easily work it out as regular pension contributions are added every so often, but looks like about 12% which is fine by me

i had some smallish new funds in my sipp so bought NMC (new) and topped up AAPL and GOOG

though NMC is quoted on LSE it's really an M/E stock of course and the other two are (obviously) NAS

as things stand, I see no reason to buy into (more) UK stocks

I've had better days.

I am still here!

So that's OK.

8-)

For who, ha! ha!------------ Only joking Fred and when put like that it puts everything into perspective, that's why I can still manage to laugh when I look in the mirror.

August was a much better month. I'm now 6.5% up for the year, which is a decent improvement from last month considering FTSE was down again.

CTO my largest holding was up 3.5% on interim results but the star was NMD, my second biggest holding which was up 38% in the month again on interim results.

Everything else with the exception of PCF was down which reflects attitudes towards anything Brexit related at the moment.


As the construction stocks go up and nearly everything else goes down or is flat my portfolio becomes more and more skewed to construction. I'm doing nothing about that except re-investing the dividends in non-construction stocks.

for myself, i am not putting any new money into uk-based stocks, either on my trading account or sipp

i cannot see ftse or even dax doing anything better than treading water for quite some time, though there are inevitable bright stars like FEVR which continue to shine

on the trading front, i am tempted to bank some of my thumping profits in FEVR and just possibly put at least some of that into DGE, as that is a decent sector and the company has strong overseas earnings

other than that, any additional sipp money is being invested in AMZN, AAPL or GOOG

Another couple of months go by and at the end of October I'm now 4.4% up for the year. Against a FTSE which has been crapping itself for the last 6 weeks or all year really I consider that a result yet 4.4% doesn't meet my aspirations.

Looking back at post 88 I said I needed 5% a year would erode my capital until the kids complete University and thereafter 5% would do. When I wrote this I really thought I could make 7.5-10% a year on average and which would of covered the gap. There is a couple of months to go and hopefully the Santa rally will help out.

I'm pretty comfortable with my portfolio and not looking to do much with it except add some more bonds for fixed yield. That's a challenge though as there is not much available at a rate I like.

Sad to say I've not really been in tune with the market this year. My view on the macroeconomic picture has not matched what equity prices have actually done. I'm not sure what to think. Who would of though Aviva at 415 for instance? That sort of price was never on my radar and either that was the opportunity of the decade on Aviva or I'm so out of touch it could go back there. I'm not sure. Whatever time will only tell if my entry at 439 was a good one.

I have one remaining issue in my portfolio which I don't know what to do with. INTU. Subject to a potential takeover. I need the mooted takeover price for breakeven. No offer has been made yet though. It's trading at a 7.5% discount to the possible takeout price. If it closed to 5% I'd probably sell a few to reduce my risk. It's becoming apparent that isn't going to happen. My reading of the situation is that there will be a higher offer but Mr. Market doesn't appear to agree. He was wrong last time though and the price has already readjusted for that. And there-in lies my issue I've had all year. My reading of the situation is probably right but the market reads it differently.

Finished up 3.3% for the year. Made some good decisions, made a couple of really bad ones. Largest two holdings CTO and NMD up on the year. PCF did well. Everything else a pile of poo.

I'm happy with that with the overall market performance with 2018 being the worst year since 2008. Nevertheless, it is insufficient to provide me with the level of income required should that rate of return continue for the next 30-40 years as inflation will eat away at my real income.

I end the year with my portfolio still very badly balanced. CTO is now 51% of my portfolio so no real progress in reducing it. On the other hand it was up about 12% in the year including dividends so it did me proud. NMD up from 8% to 12% as the share price went up 50%. I have nothing else over 5%

One good thing I've done is increase the amount of fixed interest (bonds and other fixed interest instruments) from 5% to 10%. I plan to increase to 15% by the end of 2019. I've spent alot of time working on this and enjoyed it.


The finance is easy to discuss but emotionally I found the year very difficult. It felt like I was fighting the market for the last 9 months and not much I did in 2018 went well. All my profit came from trades placed in previous years. I failed to recognise:
a) just how badly our politicians would progress Brexit
b) that Trump would be even more aggressive over trade wars than seemed possible even for him.

I have completely given up day-trading now which I loved very much. That was quite a wrench. Although I was making a little bit, it wasn't very much and it was interfering with my investment decisions. An era in my life over.

I hope 2019 will be better. The politicians could make it so. Regrettably I have little faith in them.

unless you are very knowledgeable and have very sophisticated software, day trading has to be one of the finest ways of losing a fortune

for myself, i have a small CFD trading portfolio which is very well up on the year, though i must own up to some nasty unrealised losses

as for sipp, that was showing a wonderful performance from april through september, but assuredly it will have given back an awful lot of that, though i haven't bothered to calculate it

i rarely sell sipp stocks - only right or wrong a long time after the event of course - but for the last 4 months or so, i have just allowed cash from divis and contributions to accumulate

to be honest, i currently find it hard to be enthusiastic about any uk stocks
however, when the spirit moves me, i may add to holdings of potential "special sits" stocks" and maybe a bit more in usa and/or JIL (india fund)