Dear all,

After studying market trends I have come to the conclusion, rightly or wrongly, that last years worst losers are often the winners of this year and the next.

Some of you may realise this is why I went into mining sector from October 1999 after the BRE-X sell off from March 1997, I am hoping I can repeat this in TMT stocks, as indeed 2001/2002 has been for me in Insurance Stocks at Lloyd's post WTC and September 11th 2001 (average ILV rise 55.54% per yesterday's close 12 ILVs 01.10.2001-14.12.2002).

My conclusion is based on a typical bull or bear phase lasting up to 34 trading months to 68 trading months (actually trading periods of 21 days, actual periods of 28 days or moon cycles IMHO).

Although bearish on equities generally, ie expecting a double dip recession, with bottoms in place at around 31.80 months on FTSE (close on 34 moon cycles) on 24th September 2002, from high on FTSE of 6950.60 on 30th December 1999, plus further low I expect either at 55 moon cycles or at 68 moon cycles, I am still bullish short term, say to March 2003, then again to June 2003 on Telecoms.

The reason is simple, I really do not think certain stocks can go down any further indeed the sector has been rising dramatically on the least sniff of a bull market, and when telecoms rise they rise fast (refer TWT 1.10p to 4.75p in three days recently)IMHO.

I therefore had a look at the sector to try and find the stock which to me seemed the most undervalued, most bombed out with the strongest fundamentals on cash asset backing, lowest gearing, and lowest cost per pound of revenue, plus a market capitalisation below my US$50m (&pound31.25m-&pound33.33m)threshold with the greatest upside potential risk/reward ratio IMHO.

The latest interims to 30th September 2002 released on 21st November 2002 stated certain elements I very much liked including:-

Cash &pound10,155,000 per 30.09.2002 I calculated 0.364p per share over 2,789,070,648 shares in issue at reference date.

Gross profit up 40.3% on same period last year to &pound9,389,000, I assumed this continued full year implied x 2 =&pound18,778,000

Debt seemed to have been reduced from &pound22m per ADVFN data, implying net gearing 55.59% to just &pound436,000.

My maths said can this be right is RED really only costing at 0.60p offer say &pound16,734,000, ie &pound7,015,000 net cash &pound10,155,000 plus debt &pound436,000 for a business with a &pound76m to &pound86m estimated annual turnover?

Less than 10p in the pound?

Press release data included as follows:-

"INTERIM RESULTS

FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2002

Redstone, the national communications services provider, announces its financial
results for the six months ended 30 September 2002.


FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS


Further progress on margins and cash from continuing operations:

O Gross profit up 40.3% on same period last year to &pound9.389 million. Gross
profit now represents 25.5% of revenues, up from 16.6%, and also up from
23.0% in the 6 months to 31 March 2002.

O Operating loss before goodwill amortisation and impairments reduced by
77.5% to &pound1.998 million from &pound8.876 million.

O EBITDA loss reduced by 81.7% to &pound0.990 million from &pound5.418 million.

O Revenue increased marginally compared with the 6 month period to 31 March
2002, which, as set out in the Annual Report, was down from the period to
30 September 2001 reflecting management's focus on margin enhancement.

O Operating costs excluding goodwill amortisation and impairments reduced
by 27.0% to &pound11.567 million from &pound15.849 million at 30 September 2001.

O Cash balances at 30 September of &pound10.155 million.

O Borrowings at 30 September of &pound0.436 million.


OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

O Increased sales and marketing headcount, during the period, to 102 as at
30 September 2002.
O Order intake improved during the period, with key contract wins notably
in IP telephony systems.
O Awarded Cisco "GOLD" accreditation status.
O Continued reorganisation to improve customer service and efficiency
whilst reducing cost.
O BT Wholesale partnership completed."

The all important charts, after a somewhat over enthusiastic rise last week when RED went up 79.78% day 1 0.445p to 0.80p (high 0.835p), and a further 38.75% day 2 high to 1.11p, before not unsurprisingly profit taking or short selling, RED has today completed a hammer bottom intraday reversal from 0.49p mid to 0.56p mid, which I count as a bullish signal:-



Longer term charts show I think March 2000 high per ADVFN at around &pound10.10/&pound10.20, somewhat irrelevant I understand only approx 86m shares out then even so market cap was &pound868.60m to &pound877.20m, now there are around 2,789,070,648 shares out per 30.09.2002 RNS 21.11.2002 I calculate this market cap would represent 31.14p to 31.45p over no in issue above.

Still a fair risk reward ratio IMHO at 0.60p

I am not sure of a fair short term target, but 1.12p is US$50m, after which I would expect institutional attention. My gut feeling is telecoms can trade to 2.50 to 3.00 times annual turnover, if so 2.50x &pound76m to &pound86m equates to &pound190m to &pound215m to 3 x equates to &pound228m to &pound258m.

Whichever way I looked at it I thought RED was worth 6.80p to 9.25p over the above number of shares in issue.This still represented in excess of a 10 to 1 to 15 to 1 risk reward play to me, although doubtless I will trade the volatility on the way.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Comments bull bear welcome, I am long.

Best regards

Ash

sounds good enough to take a punt to me

basically buying red its agamble- u mayas well wait 4 an upwards breakout. one company springs to mind danka business taht tarded ages around the ten-20 mark, some months hardly moning yet when the breakout occured the intial double in price , u could have still made 200percent on ur return buying the breakout.
but one word is u only need one of these to pay off every 5-10years to b rich!!!

Blackday,

I agree, my stategy has always been to try to take 10 plays at 10/1 odds, ie potential 10 baggers, or 5 plays at 5/1 odds, ie 5/1 baggers with equal stakes and if only one comes off you cover all the others going belly up if necessary provided stakes are equal in every case.

For example if you had TWT from 0.65p and RED from 0.65p, one of them, ie TWT already would have returned 5 x covering a total.

Pretty risk free concept of investing in microcap area below US$50m when purchased.

I invariably find when a sector gets a bullrun they all fly refer 13 Lloyd's ILVs.

Stockpicking is important in that best fly quicker and more, but in the end as with TMT stocks they all fly with the wind behind them.

Cheers

Ash

Blackday,

I have looked at break out points, say 0.60p- 0.63p, really need to clear 0.73p to get motoring.



News from RED should move it.

Cheers

Ash

id b intrested nearer to 4pence-i want a proper proper breakout

4p eh......your entry point is my retirement point.

regards

Teletiger,

Well the trend is still up over last three months, higher and higher supports head and shoulders bullish with higher right shoulder, nic gradual climb.

Might take a few months to get to 4p for Blackday though!



Cheers

Ash

Teletiger,

You need to go in and have a play around with Money Am charts to get a feel.

I have set up a chart on this basis shows support on 10 day MA currently:-



Let us see how this looks.

Cheers

Ash

Teletiger,

There was a fairly impressive 6,250,000 buy at 0.60p on Friday in the midst of the market mayhem,indeed RED has been a far more secure stock than most in the recent four months period rising 45% from 0.40p to 0.58p, even in down markets RED seems to hold up very well.

I am wondering withFTSE starting to reverse/bounce from it's Gann G1 Level at 3475.30/3465.10 (50% of Intraday peak 6950.60,close 6930.20 on 30.12.1999) whether RED may actually start doing quite well as descending triangle closes.

I think people may actually be quite attracted to a share that is comparatively solid in severe down markets, but can rally over 100% inside two days in bear market rallies.

Cheers

Ash

Telecoms coming back up:-



NB OST already up 55.50%

Redstone has collapsed 12.70% not sure why.

Still long.

Cheers

Ash

that'll be DCB shorting it again ;-)

Robber,

I doubt it, I don't think he has the muscle or the following to make a blind bit of difference!

Cheers

Ash

robber - lol

dcb

DCB,

So Bullie has not banned you then?

I assume you have just been spending your time per usual on ADVFN, rather than contributing to MoneyAM.

Oh well, I am sure you will return to personal abuse sooner or later.

I am waiting!

Cheers

Ash

Mr AJ - just to put the record straight, I believe it was you who rec'd this site's first yellow card while it was still in beta and had an abusive post of yours edited. Selective memory attack? Best not talk about people being banned from bulletin boards with your extensive record.

PS No, I'm not short red!

Robb,

No I am not sure, there is no yellow card on my user profile, I do not think I classify as an abusive poster, indeed very seldom do I post anything vaguely one could consider abusive, despite huge amounts of provocation to do so.

I try to restrict my criticisms to the companies in the stockmarket, the behaviour of their directors, rather than attack other posters therein ruining an open discussion forum on equities for all.

I really do not think Bullie views me as the cause of this rather consistant set of unpleasantaries imported from ADVFN onto MoneyAM, nor as someone who has posted any abusive commments.

I have made a formal complaint to Bullshare and will continue to do so as and when I am the target of unwarranted abuse and harrassment from DCB and his cronies.

I shall also lobby extensively with other users to ensure anybody who posts abusive comments on this BB gets banned.

The control of BB abuse is actually one of the most important MoneyAM cards to play, most posters myself most of all are sick to death of BB posters harrassing, attacking personally, and effectively verbally abusing other posters.

Wishing you a pleasant nights sleep, I hope the bugs don't bite!

RIGHT ENOUGH SAID PERHAPS WE COULD NOW GET BACK TO DISCUSSING WHETHER REDSTONE TELECOM PLC IS GOOD VALUE AT 14,610,000 MARKET CAP WITH 10,155,000 CASH PER 30.09.2002 AND TURNOVER OF 76M TO 86M?

Cheers

Ash

Robber, you are right about selective memory. Here is the post from Mike -

"Bullshare - 23 Dec'02 - 09:08 - 42 of 44

Ashley James. I have edited your post, A simple apology to DCB would be in order, facts actually speak louder than your words. If you want to make personal attacks can you cross over the road .

Yellow Card number 1

Mike"

The apology for Mr james lie, by the way, never materialised. Further accusations by Mr Ashley James yesterday were that I pretended to have read a book on Fibonacci Analysis to make my comments look good. So much for n-n-abuse. Lol.

dcb

DCB,

Have you any idea how your posts make you look in the eyes of other people?

Now I accept you are doing everything humanly possible to ruin this thread, but some of us are here to discuss equities and to make money trading shares in the market.

So please if you wish to continue to endeavour to wreck a peaceful, pleasant and informed BB discussion arena, enjoyed by so many, can I suggest you do so at the home of BB abuse and unpleasantness on ADVFN where I understand you and your clique are very much welcome, indeed encouraged to post your commentry and personal attacks.

Anyone else interested to discuss the equity named in the header,

I am somewhat pleased to see Redstone starting to recover it's losses of yesterday currently up 4.70%, a welcome show of strength after the drop from nowhere yesterday.

The stock has now risen above 8 day EMA support, indeed with a rising MACD and stochastic looks in a far more positive phase of shareprice movement.



Hopefully this time onwards and upwards.

Cheers

Ash

Ash
You are getting too sensitive about DCB. The best policy is to ignore anyone who is attacking you, otherwise it protracts the problem and other posters see you as both to blame. Just keep posting the technical stuff and only reply to technical comments. You will be a lot happier and so will WE who have to read it all. ADVFN seems not to mind these personal bouts, I doubt that either of you will survive on here unless you both cool it.

AJ - suggest you listen to Haystack because when you get caught with the lying and bullshit you don't look too clever.

Well said Haystack

regards

Robb
That's exactly the sort of response that ADVFN don't seem to mind. I hope it may be different here. That's just my personal opinion. I must say I have never found Ash to be a liar. He gets a tad (that's tad and not TAD) too enthusiastic sometimes and his optimism clouds his judgement but that's about all. I am sure the same could be said about a few of us at times.

Haystack - you've got a classic above. He claims he's abused and is the innocent party but when you mention that maybe he is the naughty boy he totally denies it and then when someone puts up the relevant posting brings on the holier than thou we're all here to make money and talk about shares attitude. There's a reason that he was banned from advfn at least twice to my knowledge and also from previous boards before that. There's also a reason why DCB has never been banned from any bb to the best of my knowledge. Anyway US is open, thats me over and out.

Regards
Rob

Robb - thanks. You took the words out of my mouth.

Haystack, unfortunately there are some things that just rile me beyond measure and a manipulative liar is one of them. The yellow card he got was for lying. My apologies to the rest of the BB popluace for giving vent to temper. I will try harder to exercise control :-) (repeat 100 times)

dcb

DCB,

Sounds like you are losing control of yourself. Sometimes it is adviseable to switch off the computer when the market gets on top of you, and do something else, perhaps concentrate on your business or something.

Failing that isn't ADVFN a better place for such language and BB abuse?

I am pleased to see RED is going up, so far up 0.025p so a steady climber, which in view the level of cash component, increase in gross profit "up 40.3% on same period last year to 9.389 million. Gross profit now represents 25.5% of revenues, up from 16.6%, and also up from 23.0% in the 6 months to 31 March 2002." may well indicate that Microcaps are potentially a safe haven in times where major stocks are going through forced selling via the pension funds, combined with major cap shorting activities of hedge funds.

Redstone looks to be very good comparative value in the Telecoms sector on a market capitalisation versus turnover basis, on a cash versus market cap basis, on the low level of gearing versus market cap and turnover.

One of the pleasant things about investing in recovery plays that have fallen so far, is the risk reward ratio so clearly in the favour of investors, especially when the trend of the chart over the last four months has started a recovery, and it appears the company is improving margins by such large percentages.

I am happy, are you?

Cheers

Ash

DCB,

RED starting to go up I can not believe it!

Cheers

Ash (;-o

Yes. It is up 0.005p. So that's you off to the Bahamas now, is it?

I'm new around here but I'm sick and tired of other BBs where people just bitch and moan and was hoping that this one might be different...can I suggest personal disagreements are put in another thread?

I'm very interested to hear any discussion of Redstone - particularly interested to hear views on why long term large holder Mountcashel (now Abingdon Capital) recently demerged their Redstone holding...

Haystack,

Yep flight already booked (;-o

Pinball,

I assumed they just wanted to demerge all their interests in various investments to take them off their books and separate one from another by passing out directly to their shareholders direct holdings in RED and BIONEX.

Cheers

Ash

Ash

Well that's exactly what they did - just seems to me that if they thought RED were (still) such a great investment they'd have held on to them....

Of course Abingdon's credibility counts for very little these days as they presided over a share fall in their own investment company from over 10 to under 10p.

Pinball,

Pretty convinced FTSE is turning here confirmed by Long Legged Doji followed by Hammer Bottom, so IMHO time to go long in market if ever!



Cheers

Ash

El-e-va-tor going up!

Oh well RED is still lagging UB67 up 3.20%

Time for RED to start moving up tomorrow IMHO after 3.70% leap in Telecoms Index today:-

Well at last some news from Redstone, they have changed brokers.

Evolution Capital Beeson Gregory might, you never know, with a new client start promoting the stock.

Redstone PLC
06 February 2003

For immediate release

6 February 2003

Redstone plc (the 'Company'')

Appointment of Financial Adviser and Broker


The Company is pleased to announce the appointment of Evolution Beeson Gregory
Limited as its financial adviser and broker with immediate effect.


-ENDS-


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

Telecoms up strongly today plus 2.10% UB67

RED Closed on better volume of towards 5m yesterday with a few brtrt sized trades around 1m.

Quiet so far but here is to hoping.

UB67 sparking up:-

RED Closed on better volume of towards 5m yesterday with a few better sized trades around 1m.

Quiet so far but here is to hoping.

UB67 sparking up:-

Pinball Crazy,

I think RED has just triggered a trading buy with Moving Average Convergence of 5,8,13 MA's plus 50% RSI Break.




Cheers

Ash

Ash

You said "I think RED has just triggered a trading buy with Moving Average Convergence of 5,8,13 MA's plus 50% RSI Break."

Could you explain this buy signal, please. I don't understand.

dcb

DCB,

I can not see the point in trying to explain something that you have reasonably little faith or interest in, more so posting for effect let me just say I trade on Moving Average Convergence Divergence with a difference as a primary indicator, ie basing my triggers on Fibonacci number sequence EMAs/SMAs based on the Eliott Wave count at a specific time, if you are an Eliott Wave Sceptic or a Fibonacci time and distance sceptic you will likely not want to follow the pattern, nor want to see the time triggers for moves in any shareprice, you will say Moving Averages are trying to drive a car by looking in the rear mirror and switch off, I will basically agree to disagree.

The basis of MACD:-

Calculation

The MACD is calculated by subtracting the value of a 26-day exponential moving average from a 12-day exponential moving average. A 9-day dotted exponential moving average of the MACD (the "signal" line) is then plotted on top of the MACD.

IE It signifies where the 8 day EMA is exceeded (9 days)and rises over the 26 day EMA support, ie the first time the end of cycle 21 days, 5 day 12345 Wave sell off reaches bottom and the next reversal up starts.

8, 16, 26 are lows
5, 13, 21 are highs

Now see whether you can answer your own question about the importance of an EMA convergence of 5, 8 and 13 days, with a price moving upwards on this intersection.

I will not bother to deal with a 50% upwards RSI break, surely even if you had only recently started trading buying incorporating this signal is pretty basic.

It would do yourself a favour, and myself a favour if you would post on other people's threads on this BB, rather than purely post on my threads and follow me around like a person obsessed with some deep rooted wish to attack the views and in order to undermine the standing of another poster.

Appreciate everyone has a different trading style, my faith is in the indicators given under Fibonacci dimensions of time and distance in all things, the convergence or divergence from the moving average, and crossovers of these dimensions at specific times is therefore of considerable interest to me when charting price moves.

I look at all things associated with a wave count of 144 waves in a preset wave sequence, at all things on the basis of 13 sets of 21 trading days pcm, per year, per in each annual cycle of 3,5,8,13,21,26,34,55,68, etc year cycles.

You either believe it or you do not. You either understand building and destroying pyramids or you do not and the number of blocks involved, plus the dimensions of time itself. All a chart is in effect IMHO is a picture of this in a form a human can relate to, peaks representing small parts of a company bought/sold at increasing prices, troughs illustrating large parts of a company traded at declining prices.

A specific pointer is try to see how WD Gann managed to predict forward equity and commodity price moves with such precision.

Remember it is not a coincidence that the bottom of the Wall Street Crash in 1932 was approximately 68 years from the top in 2000.
Remember it is not a coincidence that the duration of the Wall Street Crash was 34 trading periods of 21 trading days approx in duration ie 31.25 months approx.

It is not a coincidence that the retracement period is typically 61.80% of the up or down move, I can therefore say this crash is far from over, with a bull surge lasting 13 years from November 1987 bottom post Black Wednesday to December 2000 on major stocks, or delayed on lesser markets, I can IMHO safely predict at least a 5 year down from 2000, probably 8 years to 2008, as a very likely summary of the necessary correction from a 13 year bull market.

Luckily there are savage bear market rallies on route, which is what I am trading on extremely oversold IMHO plays like RED,which over the last three years has seen it's shareprice decline from 1010p to less than 0.50p, and seemingly turned, no longer a 868.60m market cap, purely now 15.59m, a reduction of 98.82% from it's peak.

RED gives me a margin of safety in that I know the 15.59m price was backed by 10.155m cash per 30.09.2002, I also think it unlikely to fall any further, especially in view descending wedge formation, indicating declining volatility to trade between support/resistance so similar to Telewest's before major price moves.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

Wow !! Ash you type all that
Fair play to ya..

Bon

Hi Ash,

Long time no see.

Your posts are as short as ever I see. LOL

Stocktrader,

Yes brief as ever-LOL!

Interesting play on RED today, TWT marked up 3.30%, market up and it seems we had a minor seller, which has altered the spread between mms to 0.50p/0.58p, mid 0.54p.

Markets are up so I can only assume the improved sentiment will drift down to smaller caps, especially looking to see what Beeson Gregory do now they are brokers to RED.

A reversal intraday to follow the sector could be seen on reasonably low volumes I would hope, noticing trade at mid 0.54p 500,000.

News flow from RED with the new broker taking a more active role, and we are now approaching RED year end 31.03.2003, noting Interims took market by surprise, I hope full year confirms a stronger upwards trend now RED seem to have their business turned around.

Anyway good to see you on MoneyAM.

Level 2 released I see.

Cheers

Ash

Ashley, I see that the MAs are now DIVERGING and the RSI has failed to break past 50% and has in fact bounced back down from that level. Would you take these as sell signals?

Ash, thanks, just freeloading I'm afraid. Came to see what it's all about.
Seems we still have something holding this one back. Looks like a waitng game.

ST

Stocktrader,

You need to look at the uncontended unlimited MoneyAM Level 2 just got my week's free trial!

Robber,

No not really L2 showing WINS bid 0.50p, supported by EVO at 0.48p, Offer EVO 0.58p.

Bluntly it appears EVO have taken an active role on NMS 500,000 both sides, but really would prefer they reduced their spread from 0.10p, noting trades well inside spread I feel liquidity of reducing to 0.025p or below either side would aid liquidity.

Gut feeling it would be possible to buy at 0.565p and sell at 0.515p, possibly within these thresholds, interested to see whether bids of 0.53p/offers of 0.55p work in fact.

It is the fundamentals of RED that will drive the shareprice IMHO.

Cheers

Ash

Ash, that not really gone anywhere near answering the question. Surely if the convergence and the RSI level were signals to buy a few days ago logic would suggest that the opposite indicators would be signals to SELL.

Robber,

I can not see the point in selling a stock with a spread like RED valued at 15,030,000 market cap with 10,155,000 cash per 30.09.2002 with a turnover of 75m to 85m.

Quite frankly I am surprised price has not closed trading range 0.54p/1.11p mid.

I expected more trading on this stock and bigger breaks upwards.

I guess it will take time for EVO BG to position their clients cheaply before the push.

Cheers

Ash

Poochy's trading game tables suggest you could be in my team, along with Socks. Please tell me you're not going to invest your full 50k in RED!! Otherwise I may have to start a new thread, putting myself up for adoption.....

Ashley, you are still missing the point. Im trying to suggest that it may not be good for your wealth to choose to only use TA signals when they suit you. In the case of RED you seen to have based your initial investment decision firmly on your detailed analyis of the Company FUNDAMENTALS. Thats fine and I hope that it works out as a good trade for you over the long term.

What I dont understand however is why you bother posting highly selective (and questionable) TA justifications for buying the stock after the event. Im sure that using this as a subtle attempt at ramping would be far beneath you so can only assume that you really believe in the value of your technical analysis and, as its somewhat unconventional I was interested in how you arrived at such buy signals as an attempted RSI rise beyond 50%.

Finally, I have heard TA summarised as an analysis of a shares price where that price is a GOOD reflection of what the masses (i.e buyers and sellers) have been doing in the market.
I long ago gave up any attempt at short term TA on shares with
1; very low trading volume,
2; very wide spreads,
3; an artificial and manipulated market (i.e MM controlled),
4; stocks with prices measured in fractions of a penny
as in my experience all of these factors can produce wide price swings (or no price movement at all) which will tend to throw up many spurious TA signals.
RED is subject to all four of these factors and as such I would suggest is unsuitable as a candidate for serious TA, your falling back on Fundy analysis any time your use of TA is quesitoned is probably a good move but I really would abandon the selective use of short term TA for this stock as I think we all agree its pretty meaningless.

Robber,

You have got to appreciate that without selective limit orders into the spread RED is not really a traders share.

I take your point about TA, bluntly once you are long, IMHO you just need to sit it out until the broker promotes the stock to the institutions.

Fundamental value is really all you can work on bearing in mind the chart signals can freak you out of a share with a big spread.

Quite frankly RED could move up or down on 25m-50m shares traded significantly, I am waiting for a break on 100m to 150m volume as happenned in December.

Cheers

Ash

Robber,

On that note someone just picked up a parcel of 764k at 0.56p 0.02p over mid.

Cheers

Ash

Morning all,

TWT on the up hope RED follows.

Nice day on FTSE this am.

Up 3.70%

Pleased with the way it has gone oddly enough KBCS going on the offer at 0.57p has narrowed spread, I see trades well inside in the 0.54p/0.56p area.

Rise mid does not look much but spread reduction is a big help.

Pleased to see trades squeezing the effective spread at 0.54p to 0.56p, either side of effective 0.545p mid.

At last a spread traders can deal with.

What you reckon on Regal Oil Ash ?

DIL,

Sorry I have not really studied it in any detail, will look at tell you my thoughts.

At least FTSE I think may turn tomorrow.

Cheers

Ash

Think RED is late out of bed this am (;-))

All it needs to do initially is break 0.56p IMHO

L 2 on RED looking more promising with EVO and WINS on bid at 0.52p, only KBCS left on offer at 0.57p

Seems to be possible to sell at 0.53p/buy at 0.55p

Interesting coverage of Telecoms Sector on pages 28 to 32 of today's Shares Magazine by the very attractive Michelle Baltazar (is she hitched I ask?)luckily Redstone is referred to as an "Interesting Recovery Opportunity"

Anyway read the edition and views of RED's position as one of two positive EBITDA positive current cash telecoms plays mentioned under alternative carriers section welcome.

If for no other reason check out Michelle on page 22 (;-))

Cheers

Ash

Telewest moving up and RED Bollinger Bands tightening at last.
MACD Zero cross on cards I think.

RED being messed around with again on pitiful volume >400k)

2,100,000 sell at 0.45p and RED is down 11% on no news.

Seems well overdone to me, with no bad news from the company and a very strong EBITDA/Cash NAV per share plus more positive sentiment towards the share recently, well at least buyers coming in at 0.50p.

Bloody silly IMHO

What happened to Ash? Are you having as personality crisis? What does he think?

Good time to pick up more. Never thought we would see it this low again.

regards

Giant Haystack,

Well we are at least seeing a hammer reversal thank my giddy aunt.

Teletiger,

Looks like a few see it that way.

Cheers

Ash

Teletiger,

Definite hammer bottom reversal hourly, head 0.015p 0.510p/0.525p tail 0.04p 0.515p/0.475p

And what does Ash think?

Well Mr Haystack Sir,

I think that RED has done a hammer on high volume, so I am feeling far happier!



Better volume too >13m

Given the market overall I think RED is looking fairly strong!

Cheers

Ash

Teletiger,

Did you read Shares Magazine?

According to Shares Magazine page 29 who referred to it as RED has I quote:-

"Redstone has started life with huge networking ambitions. It dumped them last year, selling it's system to BT. It now purely installs and manages networks for corporate customers. Capital spending nearly dragged it down. Now it looks like an interesting recovery opportunity."

The change in Redstone's management is sumarised as "Nimble managements can pull back from disaster and find a new course. Redstone has already done this."

Personally in a downwards market where most shares have reduced in shareprice, I find the fact that RED has increased from a September 2002 low of 0.375p to the current 0.535p, ie 42.66% with a peak at 1.11p 2.96 times the bottom in a bear market refreshing.



The FTSE in reality during the same period has managed no rise at all.

Best regards

Ashley

Ash , Shares mag reckoned that Holmes Place was going to be bought out for 130p.

Don't believe everything you read , think they make half of it up.

:-)

ROFLMFAO !

;-

DIL,

You know I just fancied the journo!
I believe everything I see in the media (;-))

Anyway Telewest has already started up so far up 18.60%, RED normally follows TWT for some reason IMHO.

Come on Beeson Gegory pull your finger out!

Cheers

Ash

Bollox!

Bollox!

ROFLMFAO !

Bloody hell RED has gone BLUE, I had better grab a chair to sit down!

Looks overbought to me Ash :-)

ROFLMFAO !

Pile of crap IMHO DIL.

Hope you are not long! RED is Wales's colour so what do you expect?(;-))

Dil,

Joking aside, still long in RED Telewest is already up 14% so really RED should soon start going up I would have thought!

No idea why down 9.50% today on one sell of 1m (4,500)

SEEMS TO HAVE STOPPED FALLING AND FTSE JUST HAD A NICE RUN

Bouncing nicely plus decent volume developing

Large scale USA Reversal inverted H & S day 8

Redstone year end this month!

Thank the mighty heavens!

This bitch should start to move now FTSE up over 122.00 points on top of yesterday's 211.60 so with BT.A looking good RED should start to think of 1p again IMHO

KLWT just increased bid to 0.45p offer still 0.50p but I reckon could trade nearer 0.475p/0.48p

Taking a gamble in telcos at the minute is risky..However there is one company which has outdone the rest,,telecomplus plc.They came 11th in best performers for 2002 in the ftse gaining 56% in price for that period.Cash plentyful with no debt what so ever..Take a look,, tep.l Try charting it against every one else,you will be surprised..If it can break 171p then major investors are waiting!!

Utilitiesplus

Utilities,

I have taken a look at TEP, but not much around seems as cheap as RED right now plus RED y/e coming up 31.03.

It would only need to break 0.525p to be on a reversal.

Anyway like RED chart and L2 right now.

utilitiesplus,

How do telecom Plus advertise?, I have never heard of them and nor has anyone I know

FTSE is going nuts looks like a very, very big FTSE rally in motion.

Sombrero,,telecomplus plc use referal marketing through independant distributors like myself to spread the word,we recieve a residual income for life for our efforts..It has its advantages in terms of customer gathering because we manage to keep the costs down..For example no sales people to pay,no advertising costs,no shops to run,all these add up to massive costs being saved therefore we can offer cheaper services for the UK.

Interesting isnt it how we came 11th best share performer in 2002 and youve never heared of them..Obviously no distributors in your area..If you would like more info then e-mail me as i dont want to put a link on this message and risk getting thrown off the site..As i do believe its not allowed..

mark@utilitiesplus.info

Mark,

You might be better starting your own TEP Thread rather than posting on another company's thread.

Macro market still seems bullish so smaller Telecoms should get a lift I feel.

Cheers

Ash

Should we all strap in?

regards

Come on Ash rally the troops ;-)

Boardmate,

We have a 12.50% rise on a significant->50m On Balance Volume.Who needs to?We have broken out above previous resistance on the start of a nice healthy wave 1 IMHO.

FTSE Closing on another rally, small pullback on RED from plus 12.50% to plus 7.90%, they always say Buy the first pullback on a rally.

Still look crap to me Ash , have a look at PHTM with your charty indicators and let me know what you think when you have a minute.

Cheers

DIL,

Yes well will look, right now RED indeed looking crap down 10.50% no idea why!

Morning all,

Some intersting trades going through and the price ticking up, is something in the off?

Looking forward to the results.

Yes something big is in the off. Skidmarks over on ADVFN is talking about a possible takeover by Telewest and another 10m big buy today like yesterdays after close.

AS,

Well I have thought for some time RED is as cheap as old boots, especially bearing in mind cash per share, turnover per share and gross margins.

No real surprise to see RED as a takeover target under the circumstances.

Worth noting UKX turned today at 3711.50 ie 61.80% Fibo Retracement of yesterdays close 3793.30 area and low of 3660.90. 132.40 points x 61.80%=81.80 from 3793.30=3711.50 DJIA in a very nice uptrend at moments looks good for market tomorrow.




RED looks pretty bullish IMHO a cup and handle type formation moves on larger volume bodes well for the morning I think especially when the stock breaks above 0.51p mid.

Ashley

Do you think there could be any truth to an offer coming for the company as mentioned on another BB? Could be interesting.

Buddy,

No idea to be honest, what I do know is that the chart is producing a bullish inverted H & S type signature.

We might see pullback to 0.465p/0.475p mid, but overall to me looks oversold on 15 minute/

Looks like pullback completed RSI on the floor

Afternoon all,

Looks like RED has bottomed here short term, Bollinger bands tightening, and still reasonable volume ->4.25m

Probably a good long entry IMHO.

Spread tightened to 0.02p 0.45p/0.47p

mm buy 500,000 through

14.30m volume

29m plus volume, big trade at 0.47p maybe responsible for rise.

MACD Zero break hourly

Spread has narrowed to 0.50p/0.47p, chart looks best it has looked since December 2002

Break out point looks like 0.525p from chart MACD still loooking very healthy as FTSE turns back up

Starting up again

Looks like an MACD Zero cross coming up on hourly, does anyone know date for full year results?

I never did get that email Ash.

IT,

Send to me again ajames8691@aol.com

You have mail Ash.

Ash , why not sell them and buy RM. ???

;-)

Dil,

Told ya!

Cheers

Ash

LOL !

TAN,

Well we are seeing a nice break out anyway has just pulled back.

Their financial year closed on 31.03.2003 someone knows something I guess.

Any updated news posted on ADVFN on the bid rumours as posted there a month or so ago 38m seems reasonable volume for RED?



Completed 23.60% FR of 0.515/0.635 at 0.61

LOL !

Twice As Nice,

Stop giggling, RED has a daily MACD Zero break plus EMA Convergence of following EMAs today!

LOL !

Twice as Nice,

Buyers seem to be coming in again at around 0.55p mid 0.58p offer, ie buying the first pullback to support.

0.555p represents a 66.66% retracement of yesterday's 0.515p/0.635p or a 50% FR of 0.475p/0.635p.

Looking at chart seems reasonable support at this level but nevertheless disappointed at retracement so soon.

Oh well we need to remove lose holders to move on again I guess.

Telecoms and Telewest for example both up today.

LOL !

Twice As Nice,

18,000,000 trade through at 0.56p at 3.24, I told you there was something going on.

I would argue on wave C completion ie buying first pullback

LOL !

TAN,

Trade yesterday at 3.24 of 18,000,000 at 0.56p, and another 18,000,000 today at 7.16 at 0.56p

In fact just starting a move up on Wave 3

LOL !

TAN,

Break out point on Monday is 0.625p on Wave three, logically a total move of not less than 0.235p wave 1 length which should put us above 0.785p, Wave 3 is never the shortest wave, normally the longest, after that I see a short term price of 0.625p which should become support and start Wave 5.

So the theory goes, all IMHO.

Enjoy your mirth filled W/E

mr ash

shares like this are only bought by the gullible penny share brigade,and as such,will never be taken seriously by the big institutions.

the profits at the last interims were caused by asset sales,not an increase in business activity,and with so many individual 'loose' shareholders,the upside is limited in the extreme.

regards

an old foe.

Bulldozer,

Redstone was bought up to a market cap of some 780,000,000 by large institutions in 2000 or over 10.00 per share, one thing is for sure you do not get there without major institutional support.

It is pretty obvious that RED has a stronger balance sheet now than it did then, has strong cash backing per interims covering some 10,155,000 out of the current market capitalisation 16,000,000 approx, turnover is projected at up to 85,963,000, meaning the cost of the business we are buying is in effect 18.67p in the 1.00 of t/o or I would argue 5,845,000 net cash assuming cash balance unaltered.

There are trades going through now of 10,000,000 to 18,000,000 shares, ie it is probably being traded by institutional holders.

The price is going up, on reasonable OBV, post year end on 31.03.2003 following larger than normal trades.

Gross profits were up 40.30% at half year, full year should have benefit of this turnaround, indeed with Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization Loss at only 990,000 at interim stage, I do not see it as impossible RED is on the verge of becoming profitable at full year or near, vastly ahead of most of it's competitors in telecoms sector due concentration on margins.

EBITDA loss reduced by 81.7% to 0.990 million from 5.418 million.

In the end I beg to disagree with you, personally I consider RED is vastly undervalued, indeed would be IMHO at 5 times the current market rating.


Let the price and the market do the talking, I have made a lot of money playing penny shares, RED is not even a penny a share yet.

I think you will find most loose holders are long gone on the drop from over 10.00 to 0.40p, oddly RED has now confirmed a double bottom plus started as expected to slowly but surely recover, although I doubt we will ever see 1000p again, I can see 3p to 5p as an achievable and realistic target, which would only value turnover at 1 to 1.50 times, scarcely ambitious in a sector that tends to value stocks at up to 2.50 to 3.00 times.

With full year results no doubt out fairly soon, we will obviously imminently find out whether my bullishness is warranted on their release.

In the meantime the trend is clearly up.

Cheers

Ash

Here we go

Has broken above previous high 0.625p already, could be a good week IMHO.

Up 14.70% or 0.085p to 0.66p so far, FTSE smashed R2 at 3943.00 today (R2 3942.60)looks like another very strong day on FTSE tomorrow and maybe Wednesday, hopefully RED as well noting previous resistance 0.625p smashed and Wave 3 underway.

Has now completed backtesting of previous res now sup at 0.625p required before next off.

Has hit 0.75p already, nice steady uptrend developing.

redstone worth considering now??????

Take a look at the deletions in trades where poor sods thought the share had leaped by 10x, decent of the brokers to let them delete really, although perhaps a days suspension might have been better, and how many have sold without realising even yet about the consolidation/

Read ur mails on redstone with heart,



With Redstone Telecoms results out last friday not frightening, the company share price should gradually recovery from todays lows of 9.5p. W

ill purchase Friday after Payday...!

Jules99

9.25 - 9.5p + 0.38p to be precise..

jules99.

cant stay at this level forever, it has to soon shift...my patience wearing thin..lol...

Over 6 months between your msgs LOL

I lost money on this 1.

I need a good reason to buy back in.

Have you got 1?