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INSIDER TRADERS NOTE PAD. (IT)     

Insider trader - 26 Jan 2003 17:18

Latest news.

NEWSNOW

AFX

BLOOMBURG

REUTERS UK

REUTERS US

HEMSCOTT

Company Announcements:

UK WIRE
HILARYS AUTO-REFRESH PAGE

US results seasons/companies reporting:

YAHOO

Live Dow/nas/ftse chart:

LYCOS LIVE DOW/S&P
QUOTE
YAHOO
THE FINANCIALS


Dow/Nas commentry/direction:

RAPTOR
SIGNAL WATCH
FIENDBEAR

US Stocks chat site:

ACTIVE TRADER

Info/general news type sites:

LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE
MULTEX INVESTOR
DIGITAL LOOK
CITYWIRE
iii
HEMSCOTT
SHARECAST

Dividends:

IT PAYS DIVS

Spread betting co's:

FINSPREADS
IG INDEX
CMC

Charting/trend analysis:

STOCKCHARTS
INVESTTECH
SCHWARTSTRENDS

Free real time streaming prices:

NOTHING VENTURED


Gold: 24HR GOLD

Feel stressed and want some good old fun?

LOL !
JOKES!

TOP CHARTING SOFTWARE

MT PREDICTOR

HAPPY AND SUCCESSFUL TRADING TO ALL!!

Insider trader - 26 Jan 2003 17:52 - 2 of 95

Calendar: a week at a glance

27th January - 2nd February



The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.


UK and European results this week
Date Company name Country Results Consensus Rec. No. Anl EPS EBIT Revenue
27-Jan Autonomy Corp GB FY 3.21 Hold 14 3.86 2.16 33
27-Jan Beale GB FY 2.50 Outperform/Hold 2 8.17 0.00 89
27-Jan Filtronic GB H1 2.86 Hold 7 2.85 0.00 248
27-Jan Home Entertainment GB H1 1.00 Buy 4 20.55 0.00 115
27-Jan Integrated Dental GB FY 2.00 Outperform 2 6.60 0.00 68
28-Jan Alterian GB Q3 2.00 Outperform 3 -17.28 0.00 6
28-Jan ARM Holdings GB FY 3.26 Hold 23 3.10 41.47 151
28-Jan Bossard CH FY'02 3.00 Hold 2 3.32 20.80 440
28-Jan Games Workshop GB H1 1.75 Outperform 4 32.75 0.00 118
28-Jan Hawesko DE prem. FY'02 2.75 Hold 4 1.41 15.00 267
28-Jan SKF SE FY'02 2.22 Outperform 24 21.30 3934.00 42590
28-Jan Sportingbet GB Q3 1.67 Outperform 3 10.52 13.39 1212
28-Jan Tornos CH prem. FY'02 3.00 Hold 2 -22.58 -2.00 166
29-Jan H&M SE FY'02 2.30 Outperform 27 6.35 7721.32 45536
29-Jan Lambda Physik DE Q1 3.17 Hold 13 0.18 4.00 102
29-Jan Northern Rock GB FY 2.52 Outperform/Hold 25 54.00 399.09 0
29-Jan Software AG DE prem. FY'02 3.32 Hold 26 0.57 29.60 486
30-Jan AstraZeneca GB FY 2.59 Outperform/Hold 47 115.38 2708.40 11218
30-Jan BBVA ES FY'02 2.95 Hold 38 0.67 4566.96 0
30-Jan Crest Nicholson GB FY 2.00 Outperform 8 37.15 73.90 681
30-Jan Disetronic CH Q3 3.08 Hold 12 19.40 48.60 336
30-Jan Norddeutsche Affinerie DE FY'02 2.40 Outperform 5 0.81 58.00 2026
30-Jan Partridge Fine Arts GB FY 4.00 Underperf. 1 1.60 0.00 0
30-Jan Rio Tinto GB FY 3.05 Hold 20 68.77 1641.96 6466
30-Jan SAP DE FY'02 2.71 Hold 42 2.91 1506.00 7408
30-Jan Stora Enso FI FY'02 2.30 Outperform 20 0.59 969.12 12787
30-Jan UPM-Kymmene FI FY'02 2.22 Outperform 18 2.39 1123.26 10550
31-Jan Danka Business Solutions GB Q3 2.50 Outperform/Hold 2 -0.60 0.00 910
31-Jan Fitness First GB AR 2.50 Outperform/Hold 10 14.10 28.64 212
31-Jan Ixos Software DE Q2 1.80 Outperform 6 0.41 8.93 134



Key US results this week
Date Company name Results Consensus Rec. No. Anl FY EPS FY Revenue
27-Jan Kimberly-Clark Corp Q4 2.90 Hold 10 3.34 13,566
27-Jan Freddie Mac Q4 1.46 Buy 24 5.10 6,799
27-Jan The Southern Company Q4 2.79 Hold 19 1.77 10,373
28-Jan Biogen Inc Q4 3.05 Hold 22 1.57 1,149
28-Jan DuPont de Nemours Q4 2.56 Hold 16 1.97 24,361
28-Jan Procter & Gamble Q2 1.83 Outperform 12 4.02 42,659
28-Jan McGraw-Hill Companies Q4 2.82 Hold 11 2.93 4,763
28-Jan Merck & Co Q4 2.93 Hold 28 3.14 51,332
28-Jan Veritas Software Q4 2.66 Hold 29 0.58 1,478
28-Jan Wyeth Q4 2.48 Outperform 25 2.21 14,679
28-Jan New York Times Q4 2.29 Outperform 14 1.95 3,070
28-Jan United Parcel Services Q4 2.81 Hold 17 2.12 31,377
29-Jan Chiron Corp Q4 3.06 Hold 16 1.29 1,292
29-Jan Tribune Co Q4 2.06 Outperform 17 1.83 5,366
29-Jan Norfolk Southern Q4 2.46 Outperform 11 1.16 6,256
29-Jan BCE Inc Q4 2.31 Outperform 13 1.77 19,600
29-Jan AOL Time Warner Q4 2.50 Outperform/Hold 26 0.87 40,863
29-Jan Verizon Communications Q4 3.07 Hold 29 3.05 67,159
30-Jan Boeing Co Q4 2.83 Hold 18 2.84 53,465
30-Jan Alltel Corp Q4 2.52 Outperform/Hold 23 3.22 7,985
30-Jan Estee Lauder Q4 2.78 Hold 9 0.00 0
30-Jan Exxon Mobil Corp Q4 2.50 Outperform/Hold 24 1.64 200,684
28-Jan Gillette Company Q4 2.31 Outperform 13 1.14 8,383

Gdub - 26 Jan 2003 18:49 - 3 of 95

Hi scratch!

Useful notes.

rocket fuel - 26 Jan 2003 21:54 - 4 of 95

will be interesting to see what happens with arm holdings. geez if there's any whiff of a negative statement then its surely trap door time!

Mr Ashley James - 27 Jan 2003 12:44 - 5 of 95

IT,

Excellent and highly useful thread.

Thanks for putting the effort in to compile this.

Cheers

Ash

Andy - 27 Jan 2003 12:51 - 6 of 95

I agree,

just the sort of thread this BB needs, well done!

Insider trader - 27 Jan 2003 14:17 - 7 of 95

Thanks guys, feel free to update with anything you may feel will benefit others too.

Wisebeast - 27 Jan 2003 17:27 - 8 of 95

IT, you have email.

Robb - 27 Jan 2003 21:45 - 9 of 95

Insider Trader

This is a site I use during the US results season to see who is reporting each day/week and when and also gives you access to the conference calls :-

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

Regards
Rob

Insider trader - 28 Jan 2003 11:46 - 10 of 95

Thanks Robb, will stick it in the header.

hilary - 28 Jan 2003 12:16 - 11 of 95

Insider,

I put my UK Wire into an automatic page refresh. This one is set to refresh every 2 minutes.

Insider trader - 28 Jan 2003 12:34 - 12 of 95

Hello Hilary

Thanks for that, in the header it goes. I remember last year shorting CTM the same time as you when I was scratch, are you shorting them now? I think they will be testing 30p.

Insider trader - 28 Jan 2003 17:11 - 13 of 95

Hi gdub

Are you who I think you are?

hilary - 28 Jan 2003 17:30 - 14 of 95

Hi Scratch. Not touched CTM since last autumn. It looks pretty sick though. I was trying to work out who Gdub might be, but that one's got me going. I've got an idea but I'll probably make a fool of myself if I say who I think he is. Have we spoken on the other side, Gdub?

Mr Ashley James - 28 Jan 2003 17:55 - 15 of 95

Hil,

My guess is GDUB is The Wah.

Cheers

Ash

Insider trader - 28 Jan 2003 20:46 - 16 of 95

The mystery continues, 'who is Gdub?'

Insider trader - 29 Jan 2003 20:33 - 17 of 95

Watch out, watch out, there's a worm about.

http://www.itsecurity.com/tecsnews/jan2003/jan236.htm


Get details of the most important news sent to you every week. Subscribe to the FREE weekly newsletter: The News!

ISS Discovers, Names and Tracks SQL Slammer Worm Rapidly Spreading Across the Internet Via Microsoft SQL Servers

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date posted in ITsecurity.com: 29 January, 2003
ATLANTA ~ January 28, 2003 ~ Over the weekend Internet Security Systems, Inc. (ISS) (Nasdaq: ISSX) discovered and named a new worm it is tracking SQL Slammer that is rapidly spreading across the Internet via Microsoft SQL servers. The worm has generated large amounts of Internet traffic as well as billions of probes competing with legitimate traffic for network resources and ultimately causing network outages around the world.

ISS daily Internet threat rating remains at AlertCon 3 as Internet traffic and latency have returned to acceptable levels, but it is apparent that large corporations and other organizations with significant un-patched Microsoft SQL servers and MSDE deployments are experiencing continued network outages.

ISS promptly notified public resources, including the US Department of Homeland Security, and its customers early Saturday morning, enabling them to take quick action and mitigate adverse effects of the worm. In addition, ISS Dynamic Threat Protection( Platform has protected customers from this threat for more than six months through RealSecure( Network, Internet Scanner( and System Scanner(. ISS X-Force Professional Services, including Emergency Response Services, are already engaged in remediation efforts for those affected by SQL Slammer. For more information on ISS X-Force Professional Services please visit: www.iss.net /products_services/professional_services/.

About SQL Slammer
SQL Slammer is a hybrid threat combining the self-propagation properties of a worm with buffer overflow attack techniques and random distributed denial of service attacks. The worm is responsible for large amounts of Internet traffic in the form of billions of UDP/IP probes. The worm propagates from one SQL Server to another. Once a vulnerable computer running SQL Server is compromised, the worm will randomly select new targets, and resend the exploit and propagation code to those servers running SQL Server.

The SQL Slammer worm is not destructive to the infected host, other than having to reboot and the risk of lost data. Damage is also done when the worm generates large amounts of network traffic randomly scanning for other vulnerable SQL Servers. SQL Slammer simply seeks to replicate itself and does not try to further compromise or retain access to compromised servers.

The Slammer worm does not infect or modify files, it only exists in memory.

Infection can be removed with a reboot, however without protection in place, it is likely that vulnerable servers will be quickly re-infected.

The worm cannot be stopped with anti-virus programs.

For the complete ISS X-Force Security Advisory on SQL Slammer, including recommendations for mitigating risk, please visit: www.bvlive01.iss.net /issEn/delivery/xforce/alertdetail.jsp?oid=21824.

About Internet Security Systems, Inc.
Internet Security Systems, Inc. (ISS) is a world leader in Dynamic Threat Protection software and services that protect critical information assets from an ever-changing spectrum of threats and misuse. Software from Internet Security Systems dynamically detects, prevents and responds to sophisticated threats to networks, servers and desktops. Services include 24/7 system monitoring, emergency response and access to the X-Force, Internet Security Systems renowned research and development team. Internet Security Systems is the trusted security provider for more than 10,000 corporate customers, including all of the Fortune 50, the top 10 largest U.S. securities firms, 10 of the worlds largest telecommunications companies and major agencies and departments within U.S. local, state and federal governments.

Insider trader - 02 Feb 2003 16:58 - 18 of 95


The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.


UK and European results this week
Date Company name Country Results Consensus Rec. No. Anl EPS EBIT Revenue
03-Feb Atlas Copco SE prem. FY'02 2.54 Hold 26 16.13 5202.00 47550
03-Feb BAA GB Q3 1.86 Outperform 14 33.95 591.80 1947
03-Feb Dyckerhoff D prem. FY'02 4.00 Underperform 9 -2.50 88.00 1581
03-Feb Epic GB H1 1.50 Buy/Outperform 2 4.40 0.00 8
03-Feb Ericcson SE prem. FY'02 3.29 Hold 44 -1.24 -22267.50 147121
04-Feb Amvescap GB FY 2.67 Hold 18 27.27 218.19 0
04-Feb BOC Group GB Q1 2.36 Outperform 22 59.00 549.18 4018
04-Feb Bookham Technology GB FY 3.20 Hold 6 -40.99 -64.46 29
04-Feb Ciba Specialty Chemicals CH FY'02 2.60 Hold 20 6.06 804.50 7068
04-Feb Commerzbank DE prem. FY'02 3.93 Underperform 28 -0.49 1058.00 0
04-Feb Epcos DE Q1 3.27 Hold 31 0.22 33.00 1380
04-Feb Eurodis Electron GB H1 3.00 Hold 3 0.22 4.50 302
04-Feb Heidelberger Druck DE Q3 3.24 Hold 25 0.01 76.50 4350
04-Feb IFX Power GB FY 3.00 Hold 2 11.25 1.20 65
04-Feb LEM Holding CH Q3 3.00 Hold 2 -4.73 6.35 167
04-Feb Stanelco GB FY 1.00 Buy 1 0.10 0.00 0
04-Feb Surfcontrol GB Q2 2.00 Outperform 10 16.15 6.38 48
05-Feb Adecco CH FY'02 2.27 Outperform 26 2.22 762.21 25004
05-Feb ARC International GB FY 2.20 Outperform 5 -6.11 -26.05 12
05-Feb Banco Espirito Santo PORT FY'02 3.78 Underperform 19 0.65 0.00 0
05-Feb BNP Paribas F FY'02 2.20 Outperform 35 3.76 5527.50 0
05-Feb Holmen SE FY'02 2.77 Hold 13 23.00 2748.00 16136
05-Feb Metso FI FY'02 2.33 Outperform 18 0.44 177.00 4719
05-Feb mg technologies DE FY'02 2.28 Outperform 19 1.01 412.30 8680
05-Feb Norske Skog NO FY'02 2.39 Outperform 18 7.13 1972.00 23334
05-Feb Novozymes DK FY'02 2.17 Outperform 12 8.89 949.50 5632
05-Feb Regent Inns GB H1 2.67 Hold 12 11.00 21.23 117
05-Feb Rieter CH prem. FY'02 2.89 Hold 9 20.29 179.86 2938
05-Feb Scottish Power GB Q3 2.28 Outperform 18 31.90 969.23 5485
06-Feb Assa Abloy SE FY'02 2.33 Outperform 21 6.10 2671.50 25758
06-Feb Gildemeister D prem. FY'02 3.67 Underperform 7 -0.09 21.50 1050
06-Feb Imperical Chemical Industries GB FY 2.61 Hold 23 23.12 526.00 6135
06-Feb London Bridge Software Holdings GB FY 2.56 Hold 9 1.90 2.38 66
06-Feb M-Real FI FY'02 2.41 Outperform 17 0.98 368.00 6603
06-Feb Novo Nordisk DK FY'02 2.81 Hold 31 11.58 5955.00 25328
06-Feb P&O Princess Cruises GB FY 2.50 Outperform/Hold 11 28.08 258.53 1609
06-Feb Quantica GB FY 2.00 Outperform 2 2.90 0.00 26
06-Feb Royal Dutch GB FY 2.36 Outperform 36 2.87 16748.85 141972
06-Feb Shell Transport & Trading Co. GB FY 2.48 Outperform 27 25.75 11438.00 86420
07-Feb Deutsche Bank D FY'02 2.91 Hold 32 1.32 0.00 0
07-Feb Lastminute.com GB Q1 2.20 Outperform 5 5.20 0.00 56
07-Feb Smith & Nephew GB FY 2.18 Outperform 17 14.10 172.46 1103



Key US results this week
Date Company name Results Consensus Rec. No. Anl FY EPS FY Revenue
03-Feb Anthem Inc Q4 1.71 Outperform 17 4.08 12984.00
03-Feb Fisher Scientific International Q4 1.78 Outperform 9 1.76 3228.00
03-Feb Jefferson Pilot Q4 3.13 Hold 15 3.25 3498.00
03-Feb Mattel Inc Q4 1.69 Outperform 13 1.05 4780.00
04-Feb Amercian Power Conversion Q4 2.00 Outperform 6 0.69 1276.00
04-Feb Anadarko Pete Corp Q4 2.23 Outperform 31 3.05 3790.00
04-Feb Avon Products Inc Q4 2.22 Outperform 9 2.31 6189.00
04-Feb Chubb Corp Q4 2.55 Hold 22 4.33 8947.00
04-Feb Cisco Systems Inc Q4 2.37 Outperform 35 0.39 18915.00
04-Feb Colgate-Palmolive Q4 2.54 Hold 13 2.19 9299.00
04-Feb Computer Scientific Corp Q4 2.84 Hold 16 2.01 11426.00
04-Feb Getty Images Q4 2.43 Outperform 7 0.36 460.00
04-Feb Hewitt Associates Q4 2.30 Outperform 10 1.20 1716.00
04-Feb Pharmacia Corp Q4 2.11 Outperform 18 1.55 14009.00
04-Feb Rohm & Haas Co Q4 2.59 Hold 16 1.54 5688.00
04-Feb The Cheesecake Factory Q4 2.65 Hold 17 0.96 652.00
04-Feb Vertex Pharmaceuticals Q4 2.71 Hold 7 -1.41 162.93
05-Feb Anheuser-Busch Co Q4 2.06 Outperform 17 2.20 13501.00
05-Feb Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Q4 2.71 Hold 14 -0.69 1555.00
05-Feb TXU Corp Q4 3.10 Hold 20 2.94 26613.00
05-Feb US Cellular Corp Q4 3.14 Hold 14 1.78 2186.00
06-Feb Safeway Inc Q4 2.53 Hold 15 2.76 35003.00
06-Feb Gannett Co Inc Q4 2.50 Outperform 16 4.30 6441.00
06-Feb Pepsico Inc Q4 2.37 Outperform 19 1.95 25180.00
06-Feb Pixar Inc Q4 2.57 Hold 7 1.58 190.00
06-Feb Timberland Co Q4 1.67 Outperform 3 2.26 1175.00
06-Feb Autonation Q4 2.20 Outperform 5 1.16 19820.00
06-Feb Polo Ralph Lauren Q4 2.33 Outperform 9 1.71 2287.00
06-Feb John Hancock Financial Services Q4 2.58 Hold 26 2.77 9020.00
07-Feb Cigna Corp Q4 3.32 Hold 19 6.56 20067.00

Insider trader - 09 Feb 2003 10:20 - 19 of 95

The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1= buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=underperform and 5=sell.


UK and European results this week
Result Date Company name Currency Results Consensus Rec. No. Anl EPS EBIT Revenue
10-Feb British Airways GBP Q3 2.88 Hold 16 5.43 379.56 7886
10-Feb Enodis GBP Q1 2.40 Outperform 10 8.09 53.00 706
10-Feb Eurotunnel GBP FY 1.33 Buy 3 -3.51 215.20 591
10-Feb Royalblue Group GBP FY 2.50 Outperform 10 17.65 8.27 59
10-Feb Torex GBP FY 2.20 Outperform 10 35.25 19.84 167
10-Feb Xstrata GBP FY 2.64 Hold 14 56.35 223.77 1224
11-Feb Alphameric GBP AR 2.50 Outperform 4 6.65 0.00 64
11-Feb BP GBP FY 2.76 Hold 33 25.60 7816.50 108332
11-Feb BWD Securities GBP FY 1.50 Buy 2 22.10 0.00 0
11-Feb Dobbies Garden Centres GBP FY 1.83 Outperform 6 26.75 4.86 38
11-Feb Microgen GBP FY 2.00 Outperform 1 2.60 1.90 26
11-Feb Morgan Sindall GBP FY 2.60 Hold 6 31.70 15.00 1065
11-Feb nCipher GBP Q4 2.75 Hold 4 -3.18 -8.51 12
11-Feb Norsk Hydro NOK prem. FY'02 2.58 Hold 24 28.23 19482.50 166235
11-Feb PizzaExpress GBP H1 2.73 Hold 15 33.00 34.06 229
11-Feb PZ Cussons GBP H1 1.00 Buy 1 68.90 0.00 479
11-Feb QA GBP FY 2.00 Outperform 1 -6.30 -37.50 31
11-Feb Renault Euro FY'02 2.13 Outperform 32 6.81 1240.85 36354
11-Feb Sandvik SEK FY'02 3.12 Hold 25 13.80 5676.00 49279
11-Feb Securitas SEK FY'02 2.55 Hold 23 7.30 3449.00 67100
11-Feb Solvay Euro prem. FY'02 2.58 Hold 19 5.43 763.40 8163
11-Feb Tele2 SEK FY'02 2.13 Outperform 16 -3.26 1395.00 30917
12-Feb Cadbury Schweppes GBP FY 2.40 Outperform 21 31.75 928.00 5372
12-Feb Epcos Euro AGM 3.17 Hold 31 0.22 32.00 1380
12-Feb GlaxoSmithKline GBP Q4 2.73 Hold 41 78.07 6565.00 21170
12-Feb Liberty International GBP AR 3.00 Hold 15 24.28 219.24 0
12-Feb MLP Euro prem. FY'02 3.05 Hold 22 0.56 0.00 0
12-Feb Skandia SEK FY'02 2.67 Hold 24 2.24 0.00 0
12-Feb St Modwen Properties GBP FY 3.00 Hold 3 17.12 42.02 0
12-Feb Sygen International GBP H1 2.67 Hold 3 3.10 12.86 155
13-Feb Antisoma GBP Q2 2.67 Hold 6 -5.65 9.50 1
13-Feb Barclays GBP FY 2.52 Hold 29 39.28 5243.00 0
13-Feb Beru Euro Q3 2.08 Outperform 13 3.60 55.90 312
13-Feb BT Group GBP Q3 2.62 Hold 39 13.50 2737.10 18922
13-Feb Cambridge Antibody GBP Q1 2.31 Outperform 18 -90.90 -38.67 12
13-Feb Centrica GBP FY 1.89 Outperform 19 14.27 826.95 14419
13-Feb Gjensidige NOR NOK FY'02 2.80 Hold 11 21.64 0.00 0
13-Feb IKB Deutsche Industriebank Euro Q3 3.25 Hold 5 1.09 0.00 0
13-Feb Macro 4 GBP H1 3.00 Hold 2 8.20 0.00 39
13-Feb Micronas CHF FY'02 2.00 Outperform 13 2.20 106.10 703
13-Feb P&I Personal & Informatik Euro Q3 2.50 Outperform 2 0.16 2.20 40
13-Feb SEB Group SEK FY'02 2.48 Outperform 25 7.40 0.00 0
13-Feb Skanska SEK FY'02 2.56 Hold 16 2.45 2785.00 143693
13-Feb Telenor NOK Q4 2.17 Outperform 24 2.20 3284.49 49087
13-Feb Tomra Systems NOK Q4 1.43 Buy 14 1.46 331.00 2676
13-Feb Unilever GBP FY 1.95 Outperform 21 37.40 3872.92 30970
14-Feb British Sky Broadcasting GBP H1 1.88 Outperform 26 7.01 301.00 3110
14-Feb Carl Zeiss Meditec Euro Q1 2.67 Hold 3 0.34 15.04 261
14-Feb Domino's Pizza UK & IRL GBP FY 1.75 Outperform 5 5.30 0.00 52
14-Feb Dr Hle Euro Q1 3.00 Hold 2 0.14 0.37 14
14-Feb Edscha Euro AGM 2.20 Outperform 5 2.58 69.20 946
14-Feb FoereningsSparbanken SEK FY'02 2.61 Hold 25 8.93 0.00 0
14-Feb Lloyds TSB Group GBP FY 2.67 Hold 30 34.30 0.00 0
14-Feb net AG Euro Q1 4.00 Underperform 1 -0.10 -1.75 70
14-Feb Quarto Group GBP FY 1.00 Buy 1 20.40 0.00 0
14-Feb ThyssenKrupp Euro Q1 2.22 Outperform 28 1.02 1180.00 37748
14-Feb Tietoenator Euro FY'02 2.60 Hold 30 1.01 101.15 1266



Key US results this week
Result Date Company name Results Consensus Rec. No. Anl FY EPS FY Revenue
10-Feb Wellpoint Health Networks Q4 1.68 Outerperform 19 1.15 4,524
10-Feb Metlife Inc Q4 1.92 Outerperform 24 0.64 8,782
10-Feb Fording Inc Q4 3.14 Hold 7 0.37 0
11-Feb Clorox Company Q4 2.83 Hold 12 0.63 1,136
11-Feb XL Capital Q4 2.13 Outerperform 23 1.79 1,690
11-Feb Prudential Financial Inc Q4 2.33 Outerperform 15 0.45 5,124
11-Feb Fresh Del Monte Produce Q4 2.75 Hold 4 0.34 472
11-Feb Aetna Inc Q4 2.68 Hold 19 0.59 4,611
12-Feb Omnicare Inc Q4 1.88 Outerperform 8 0.41 675
12-Feb Scana Corp Q4 2.00 Outerperform 7 0.59 656
12-Feb AON Corp Q4 3.00 Hold 16 0.54 2,439
12-Feb Instinet Group Q4 3.36 Hold 11 0.01 294
12-Feb Express Scripts Q4 1.89 Outerperform 18 0.71 3,738
12-Feb Office Depot Q4 2.31 Outerperform 13 0.21 2,914
12-Feb Cox Communications Q4 2.04 Outerperform 24 -0.02 1,321
12-Feb Pepco Holdings Q4 2.17 Outerperform 6 0.29 0
13-Feb Dell Computer Corp Q4 2.04 Outerperform 24 0.23 9,734
13-Feb Hasbro Inc Q4 2.67 Hold 12 0.58 2,850
13-Feb Teleflex Inc Q4 2.67 Hold 6 3.04 2,087
13-Feb Baker Hughes Inc Q4 2.23 Outerperform 26 0.37 1,447
13-Feb Barrick Gold Q4 2.44 Outerperform 23 0.10 0
13-Feb Wellchoice Inc Q4 2.67 Hold 9 0.56 1,363
13-Feb Intuit Inc Q4 2.17 Outerperform 12 0.57 596

Wisebeast - 09 Feb 2003 13:55 - 20 of 95

The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1= buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=underperform and 5=sell.
UK and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCurrencyResultsConsensus Rec.No. AnlEPSEBITRevenue
10-FebBritish AirwaysGBPQ32.88Hold165.43379.567886
10-FebEnodisGBPQ12.40Outperform108.0953.00706
10-FebEurotunnelGBPFY1.33Buy3-3.51215.20591
10-FebRoyalblue GroupGBPFY2.50Outperform1017.658.2759
10-FebTorexGBPFY2.20Outperform1035.2519.84167
10-FebXstrataGBPFY2.64Hold1456.35223.771224
11-FebAlphamericGBPAR2.50Outperform46.650.0064
11-FebBPGBPFY2.76Hold3325.607816.50108332
11-FebBWD SecuritiesGBPFY1.50Buy222.100.000
11-FebDobbies Garden CentresGBPFY1.83Outperform626.754.8638
11-FebMicrogenGBPFY2.00Outperform12.601.9026
11-FebMorgan SindallGBPFY2.60Hold631.7015.001065
11-FebnCipherGBPQ42.75Hold4-3.18-8.5112
11-FebNorsk HydroNOKprem. FY'022.58Hold2428.2319482.50166235
11-FebPizzaExpressGBPH12.73Hold1533.0034.06229
11-FebPZ CussonsGBPH11.00Buy168.900.00479
11-FebQA GBPFY2.00Outperform1-6.30-37.5031
11-FebRenaultEuroFY'022.13Outperform326.811240.8536354
11-FebSandvikSEKFY'023.12Hold2513.805676.0049279
11-FebSecuritasSEKFY'022.55Hold237.303449.0067100
11-FebSolvayEuroprem. FY'022.58Hold195.43763.408163
11-FebTele2SEKFY'022.13Outperform16-3.261395.0030917
12-FebCadbury SchweppesGBPFY2.40Outperform2131.75928.005372
12-FebEpcosEuroAGM3.17Hold310.2232.001380
12-FebGlaxoSmithKlineGBPQ42.73Hold4178.076565.0021170
12-FebLiberty InternationalGBPAR3.00Hold1524.28219.240
12-FebMLPEuroprem. FY'023.05Hold220.560.000
12-FebSkandiaSEKFY'022.67Hold242.240.000
12-FebSt Modwen PropertiesGBPFY3.00Hold317.1242.020
12-FebSygen InternationalGBPH12.67Hold33.1012.86155
13-FebAntisomaGBPQ22.67Hold6-5.659.501
13-FebBarclaysGBPFY2.52Hold2939.285243.000
13-FebBeruEuroQ32.08Outperform133.6055.90312
13-FebBT GroupGBPQ32.62Hold3913.502737.1018922
13-FebCambridge AntibodyGBPQ12.31Outperform18-90.90-38.6712
13-FebCentricaGBPFY1.89Outperform1914.27826.9514419
13-FebGjensidige NORNOKFY'022.80Hold1121.640.000
13-FebIKB Deutsche IndustriebankEuroQ33.25Hold51.090.000
13-FebMacro 4GBPH13.00Hold28.200.0039
13-FebMicronasCHFFY'022.00Outperform132.20106.10703
13-FebP&I Personal & Informatik EuroQ32.50Outperform20.162.2040
13-FebSEB GroupSEKFY'022.48Outperform257.400.000
13-FebSkanskaSEKFY'022.56Hold162.452785.00143693
13-FebTelenorNOKQ42.17Outperform242.203284.4949087
13-FebTomra SystemsNOKQ41.43Buy141.46331.002676
13-FebUnileverGBPFY1.95Outperform2137.403872.9230970
14-FebBritish Sky BroadcastingGBPH11.88Outperform267.01301.003110
14-FebCarl Zeiss MeditecEuroQ12.67Hold30.3415.04261
14-FebDomino's Pizza UK & IRL GBPFY1.75Outperform55.300.0052
14-FebDr HleEuroQ13.00Hold20.140.3714
14-FebEdschaEuroAGM2.20Outperform52.5869.20946
14-FebFoereningsSparbankenSEKFY'022.61Hold258.930.000
14-FebLloyds TSB GroupGBPFY2.67Hold3034.300.000
14-Febnet AGEuroQ14.00Underperform1-0.10-1.7570
14-FebQuarto GroupGBPFY1.00Buy120.400.000
14-FebThyssenKruppEuroQ12.22Outperform281.021180.0037748
14-FebTietoenatorEuroFY'022.60Hold301.01101.151266
Key US results this week
Result DateCompany nameResultsConsensus Rec.No. AnlFY EPSFY Revenue
10-FebWellpoint Health NetworksQ41.68Outerperform191.154,524
10-FebMetlife IncQ41.92Outerperform240.648,782
10-FebFording IncQ43.14Hold70.370
11-FebClorox CompanyQ42.83Hold120.631,136
11-FebXL CapitalQ42.13Outerperform231.791,690
11-FebPrudential Financial IncQ42.33Outerperform150.455,124
11-FebFresh Del Monte ProduceQ42.75Hold40.34472
11-FebAetna IncQ42.68Hold190.594,611
12-FebOmnicare IncQ41.88Outerperform80.41675
12-FebScana CorpQ42.00Outerperform70.59656
12-FebAON CorpQ43.00Hold160.542,439
12-FebInstinet GroupQ43.36Hold110.01294
12-FebExpress ScriptsQ41.89Outerperform180.713,738
12-FebOffice DepotQ42.31Outerperform130.212,914
12-FebCox CommunicationsQ42.04Outerperform24-0.021,321
12-FebPepco HoldingsQ42.17Outerperform60.290
13-FebDell Computer CorpQ42.04Outerperform240.239,734
13-FebHasbro IncQ42.67Hold120.582,850
13-FebTeleflex IncQ42.67Hold63.042,087
13-FebBaker Hughes IncQ42.23Outerperform260.371,447
13-FebBarrick GoldQ42.44Outerperform230.100
13-FebWellchoice IncQ42.67Hold90.561,363
13-FebIntuit IncQ42.17Outerperform120.57596

Wisebeast - 09 Feb 2003 13:55 - 21 of 95

IT, same thing, wee bit more visual, see me on MSN on how to do it with no time wasting.

Insider trader - 20 Feb 2003 09:35 - 22 of 95

I know how to do it thanks anyway sgt. The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperform and 5=sell.
UK and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecCons RecNo AnlEPSEBITRevenue
17-FebAgie CharmillesCHFY3.33Hold3-120990
17-FebD+S OnlineDprem. FY3.00Hold1-1.44-12.5342
17-FebEniroSEFY2.27Outperform152.346964782
17-FebHercules Property ServicesGBH12.00Outperform130.39.839
17-FebNetstoreGBH11.00Buy1-3.1013
17-FebOutokumpuFIFY2.33Outperform161.26322.455573
17-FebStinnesDEGM3.20Hold122.07340.1912854
18-FebBG GroupGBFY2.76Hold2212.18582798
18-FebBradford & BingleyGBFY3.00Hold2026296.710
18-FebCRC GroupGBFY1.50Buy327.38.99119
18-FebDicom GroupGBH11.33Buy442.1410.84158
18-FebFreenetDEFY2.33Outperform70.12.140
18-FebGeorg FischerCHFY2.83Hold79.88105.83512
18-FebInforma GroupGBFY2.67Hold1016.0537283
18-FebMerckDEFY3.15Hold211.33602.57522
18-FebOrionFIFY2.57Outperform81.11081591
18-FebReuters GroupGBFY3.30Hold236.12113606
18-FebSanofi-SynthelaboFFY2.37Outperform272.3926097448
18-FebStatoilNOQ42.46Outperform266.4143612.54238202
18-FebtechemDEQ12.43Outperform70.7150407
19-FebAllied Irish BanksIE FY2.13Outperform181.2216140
19-FebAssociated British PortsGBFY2.67Hold1229.5172.3424
19-FebBertrandtDEAGM3.40Hold50.4210.72245
19-FebChubbGBFY2.36Outperform149.181431513
19-FebElectric WordGBFY1.00Buy1-0.600
19-FebHochtiefDEprem. FY2.43Outperform90.8911011958
19-FebHVB GruppeDEprem. FY4.00Underperform31-0.65-10570
19-FebInficonCHQ43.33Hold3-0.68-1.9198
19-FebMediClinDEprem. FY5.00Sell20.200
19-FebNordeaSEFY2.13Outperform233.0200
19-FebReckitt BenckiserGBFY1.88Outperform1655.615893540
19-FebSchwarz PharmaDEQ41.91Outperform110.9372.5937
19-FebSerco GroupGBFY2.36Outperform149.4541.641087
19-FebStandard CharteredGBFY2.88Hold2545.691380.80
19-FebTeliaSoneraSEFY2.00Outperform7-6.91-3578.7584375
19-FebWilmington GroupGBH12.33Outperform36.58.5781
19-FebXaarGBFY2.00Outperform31.70.6129
20-FebBae SystemsGBFY3.00Hold1717.2104012026
20-FebCapita GroupGBFY2.22Outperform1810.2384900
20-FebCarlsbergDKprem. FY3.05Hold2020.753437.4636408
20-FebDaimlerChryslerDEFY'022.44Outperform404.056542.58154000
20-FebDiageoGBH12.44Outperform2749.27214410260
20-FebHansonGBFY2.94Hold1840.84333955
20-FebHugo BossDEprem. FY2.78Hold181111.751093
20-FebL'OrealFprem. FY2.14Outperform222.06185614308
20-FebLow & BonarGBFY2.75Hold44.99.68166
20-FebReed ElsevierGBFY2.09Outperform2328.471162.255098
20-FebSanochemia PharmazeutikaAUQ32.60Hold60.221.9626
20-FebSyngentaCHFY'022.05Outperform193.75897.879013
21-FebAlliance & LeicesterGBFY2.88Hold2464.7526.540
21-FebBoehler UddeholmAUprem. FY3.00Hold54.151001440
21-FebGo-Ahead GroupGBH12.23Outperform1363.560.911084
21-FebHeidelbergCementDEprem. FY3.83Underperform193.855116630
21-FebITNETGBFY2.14Outperform713.59.84176
21-FebThyssenKruppDEAGM2.22Outperform281.041164.537748
Key US results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecCons RecBroker NumbersFY EPSFY Revenue
18-FebWal-Mart StoresUSQ4Outerperform1.87231.49219,812
18-FebWaste Management IncUSQ4Outerperform2.50141.3211,126
18-FebEcolab IncUSQ4Hold2.80101.833,397
18-FebGlamis GoldUSQ4Outerperform2.08120.1378
18-FebKing PharmaceuticalsUSQ4Outerperform2.20151.341,185
19-FebADC TelecommunicationsUSQ4Hold2.9213-0.08854
19-FebIntermune IncUSQ4Outerperform1.717-3.84110
19-FebQwest Communications IntlUSQ4Hold3.3923-0.5016,945
20-FebBEA SystemsUSQ4Hold2.67270.32976
20-FebCimarex EnergyUSQ1Outerperform2.0031.37315
20-FebCox Radio IncUSQ4Outerperform2.40150.56422
20-FebHalliburton CompanyUSQ4Outerperform2.21240.8812,207
20-FebHollywood Entertainment GroupUSQ4Buy1.5081.231,486
20-FebHormel FoodsUSQ1Hold2.5691.564,129
20-FebLiz ClaiborneUSQ4Outerperform2.08132.203,688
20-FebNordstrom IncUSQ4Outerperform2.33181.175,979
20-FebPlacer Dome IncUSQ4Outerperform2.44230.421,184
20-FebRadioshack CorpUSQ4Hold3.44161.434,560
20-FebSempra EnergyUSQ4Outerperform2.47152.556,002
20-FebTom Brown IncUSQ4Outerperform2.3390.29216
21-FebAgilent TechUSQ1Hold2.8513-0.846,010
21-FebSt Mary Land & ExplorationUSQ4Outerperform2.2970.99193

leo1 - 21 Feb 2003 09:07 - 23 of 95

leo1 - 21 Feb 2003 09:08 - 24 of 95

Very useful but, if I click on one of the links i.e. http://www.moneyam.com/research/dispatchbasic.asp?ticker=A=US
I get Page not Found in IE - is it beacause I'm a free user?

Insider trader - 21 Feb 2003 12:21 - 25 of 95

Leo1

That's not one of my links in the header, I also get 'page not found' from 'http://www.moneyam.com/research/dispatchbasic.asp?ticker=A=US' as well.

Kayak - 21 Feb 2003 12:38 - 26 of 95

It's because the HTML you're posting from elsewhere contains links such as "../research/dispatchbasic.asp?ticker=A=US". The ".." will be replaced by the address of whatever site the page appears, in this case MoneyAM. Not much you can do about it except post the text (i.e. Copy/Paste) rather than the HTML.

leo1 - 22 Feb 2003 01:22 - 27 of 95

Sorry,
If I click on a link on the above list I get a 404 error - page not found.
If I copy shortcut on a link above I get the same.
The links do not work for me. I'm not posting from elsewhere, I'm sat here on this message board trying to click the links in the post which don't work.
i.e.
Agilient link = http://www.moneyam.com/research/dispatchbasic.asp?ticker=A=US
radio Shack link = http://www.moneyam.com/research/dispatchbasic.asp?ticker=RSH=US

If the links work for you what is the 'shotcut' your browser sees?

Kayak - 22 Feb 2003 10:25 - 28 of 95

Sorry leo, I was replying to IT who posted the information. The table is taken from another site, so the links are not intended to refer to MoneyAM. Because the information has been lifted as it was, the links do not work. MoneyAM doesn't carry US prices yet anyway.

leo1 - 22 Feb 2003 11:51 - 29 of 95

Thanks, I'm with it now ;-)

nofi - 22 Feb 2003 18:51 - 30 of 95

do you have to pay for realtime streaming on nothing ventured?

whats it like as a broker?

Insider trader - 24 Feb 2003 08:15 - 31 of 95

Week ahead company announcements: The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.
UK and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo. AnlEPSEBITRevenue
24-FebBHP BillitonGBH12.48Outperform2321.762208.089803
24-FebBunzlGBFY2.29Outperform1429.70207.002873
24-FebEggGBFY2.50Outperform/Hold10-1.00123.980
24-FebHammersonGBFY2.21Outperform1428.35154.400
24-FebJardine Lloyd ThompsonGBFY2.50Outperform/Hold834.1491.850
24-FebOld MutualGBFY2.45Outperform1211.800.000
24-FebPfleidererDprem. FY2.67Hold30.4953.401314
24-FebUltra ElectronicsGBFY2.55Hold1132.4733.00262
24-FebWorkspace GroupGBQ32.17Outperform755.5525.900
24-FebWPP GroupGBFY3.19Hold2624.30435.163925
25-FebBritish American TobaccoGBFY2.19Outperform1666.812507.6211744
25-FebCredit Suisse GroupCHFY2.19Outperform26-1.570.000
25-FebDomnick HunterGBFY1.75Outperform420.350.00123
25-FebHBOSGBFY2.19Outperform2757.424877.530
25-FebKerry GroupIREFY2.00Outperform51.00257.733732
25-FebMichelinFFY2.39Outperform233.511105.0115706
25-FebMicrolog LogisticsDprem. FY2.50Outperform/Hold61.2012.80285
25-FebMorseGBH12.33Outperform97.8711.87379
25-FebPrudentialGBFY2.32Outperform2639.00236.250
25-FebSaipemIprem. FY1.75Outperform220.42313.903072
25-FebStaffwareGBFY1.60Outperform511.751.9539
25-FebThorntonsGBH12.33Outperform68.6511.00168
25-FebVitec GroupGBAR3.00Hold533.6524.60171
25-FebWhite Young GreenGBH11.60Outperform614.526.3572
26-FebAbbey NationalGBFY2.81Hold2139.002080.000
26-FebAir LiquideFFY2.84Hold257.391169.237866
26-FebAmershamGBFY2.06Outperform1929.20284.851662
26-FebAvivaGBFY2.21Outperform2656.86105.360
26-FebBrambles IndustriesGBH12.78Hold911.80382.183030
26-FebCroda InternationalGBFY2.50Outperform/Hold1017.8341.35314
26-FebLindeDEprem. FY2.78Hold272.06562.688855
26-FebMichael Page InternationalGBFY3.55Underperform115.9032.40386
26-FebProvident FinancialGBFY2.10Outperform1052.90180.980
26-FebRACGBFY2.00Outperform742.2053.501204
26-FebRPS GroupGBFY1.25Buy86.8014.00100
26-FebTDGGBFY2.63Hold819.8027.01559
26-FebTelemetrixGBFY2.67Hold31.802.0986
26-FebWilson BowdenGBFY1.92Outperform13127.07183.88960
27-FebAvis EuropeGBFY2.88Hold810.39120.32767
27-FebCap GeminiFFY3.00Hold34-3.0165.907089
27-FebDavis ServiceGBFY2.50Outperform/Hold830.0096.50796
27-FebHilton GroupGBFY2.74Hold2313.31292.725120
27-FebLafargeFFY2.10Outperform206.892111.5014610
27-FebLegal & GeneralGBFY2.50Outperform/Hold239.33721.000
27-FebMFI FurnitureGBFY2.28Outperform189.1076.201276
27-FebNestl/a>CHFY2.14Outperform2918.719438.0089824
27-FebRentokil InitialGBFY2.30Outperform2114.99449.002349
27-FebRoyal Bank of ScotlandGBFY1.82Outperform29142.789031.960
27-FebShire PhramaceuticalsGBFY2.67Hold2130.06202.49656
27-FebTrinity MirrorGBFY2.60Hold1035.30189.001092
28-FebAnglo AmericanGBFY2.43Outperform2176.432005.959625
28-FebQueen's Moat HousesGBFY4.50Sell3-0.200.000
28-FebRank GroupGBFY2.44Outperform1618.95222.001437
28-FebScheringDFY2.15Outperform362.35730.005063
28-FebUnited Business MediaGBFY2.79Hold1915.6961.00793
Key US results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo. AnlFY EPSFY Revenue
24-FebMagna InternationalUSQ42.05Outerperform205.56 11,026
24-FebLowes CompaniesUSQ41.93Outerperform271.30 22,111
24-FebH&R Block IncUSQ32.20Outerperform52.31 3,318
24-FebWeight Watchers InternationalUSQ41.86Outerperform70.65 624
25-FebClear Channel Comms.USQ41.75Outerperform24-1.61 7,970
25-FebTitan CorpUSQ41.58Outerperform1201,132
25-FebSemtech CorpUSQ42.91Hold110.47 191
25-FebSmithfield Foods IncUSQ32.22Outerperform91.77 7,356
26-FebThomson CorpUSQ42.35Outerperform170.72 7,237
26-FebWP Carey & CoUSQ41.00Buy11.02 139
26-FebAmerican Pharmaceutical PartnersUSQ42.00Outerperform30.86 274
26-FebMontpelier Re HoldingsUSQ42.50Outerperform62.21 409
27-FebFour SeasonsUSQ43.38Hold161199
27-FebMarvell Tech. GroupUSQ42.47Outerperform150.15289
28-FebKinross Gold CorpUSQ42.38Outerperform18-0.42283

Insider trader - 05 Mar 2003 17:12 - 32 of 95

UK and European results this week
Result Date Company name Country Currency Results Consensus Rec No. Anl Earnings
3-Mar British Polythene GB GBP FY 1.33 Buy 3 Forecast
3-Mar British Vita GB GBP FY 2.25 Outperform 8 Forecast
3-Mar GKN GB GBP FY 2.58 Hold 19 Forecast
3-Mar HSBC Holdings GB GBP FY 2.86 Hold 31 Forecast
3-Mar Linx Printing Technologies GB GBP H1 2.67 Hold 3 Forecast
3-Mar Mersey Docks & Harbour GB GBP FY 2.78 Hold 9 Forecast
3-Mar Pearson GB GBP FY 2.63 Hold 24 Forecast
3-Mar Persimmon GB GBP FY 1.79 Outperform 14 Forecast
3-Mar Sherwood International GB GBP FY 2.00 Outperform 6 Forecast
3-Mar Thistle Hotels GB GBP FY 2.79 Hold 15 Forecast
3-Mar Wembley GB GBP FY 1.40 Buy 5 Forecast
4-Mar Britannic Group GB GBP FY 2.78 Hold 9 Forecast
4-Mar Degussa D Euro FY'02 3.09 Hold 24 Forecast
4-Mar Hays GB GBP H1 2.41 Outperform 18 Forecast
4-Mar Johnson Service GB GBP FY 2.75 Hold 4 Forecast
4-Mar Lavendon Group GB GBP FY 3.00 Hold 3 Forecast
4-Mar Porsche D Euro H1 2.33 Outperform 27 Forecast
4-Mar Robert Walters GB GBP FY 3.33 Hold 6 Forecast
4-Mar Rolls-Royce GB GBP FY 3.18 Hold 22 Forecast
4-Mar Swisslog Holding CH CHF FY'02 3.11 Hold 9 Forecast
4-Mar Taylor Woodrow GB GBP FY 2.45 Outperform 12 Forecast
4-Mar Vivendi Environnement F Euro FY'02 2.32 Outperform 28 Forecast
4-Mar William Demant Holding DK DKK FY'02 3.17 Hold 12 Forecast
5-Mar Accor F Euro FY'02 2.21 Outperform 19 Forecast
5-Mar Balfour Beatty GB GBP FY 1.78 Outperform 9 Forecast
5-Mar Carrefour F Euro FY'02 2.47 Outperform 32 Forecast
5-Mar Communisis GB GBP FY 2.33 Outperform 4 Forecast
5-Mar E.ON D Euro FY'02 2.43 Outperform 36 Forecast
5-Mar Friends Provident GB GBP FY 2.50 Outperform/Hold 18 Forecast
5-Mar Gallaher group GB GBP FY 2.69 Hold 16 Forecast
5-Mar Henkel D Euro FY'02 2.18 Outperform 22 Forecast
5-Mar Kidde GB GBP FY 2.75 Hold 12 Forecast
5-Mar LogicaCMG GB GBP FY 3.35 Hold 24 Forecast
5-Mar Millennium & Copthorne Hotels GB GBP FY 3.07 Hold 14 Forecast
5-Mar Pharmagene GB GBP FY 2.67 Hold 3 Forecast
5-Mar Pinault Printemps-Redoute F Euro FY'02 2.35 Outperform 26 Forecast
5-Mar Profile Therapeutics GB GBP H1 1.33 Outperform 3 Forecast
5-Mar Provalis GB GBP H1 2.50 Outperform/Hold 3 Forecast
5-Mar Wimpey George GB GBP FY 2.33 Outperform 13 Forecast
6-Mar Amec GB GBP FY 2.00 Outperform 8 Forecast
6-Mar Arriva GB GBP FY 2.38 Outperform 13 Forecast
6-Mar Basler D Euro FY'02 2.00 Outperform 2 Forecast
6-Mar Eidos GB GBP H1 2.07 Outperform 16 Forecast
6-Mar HypoVereinsbank DE Euro FY'02 4.13 Underperform 25 Forecast
6-Mar LVMH F Euro FY'02 2.25 Outperform 20 Forecast
6-Mar Meggitt GB GBP FY 1.81 Outperform 16 Forecast
6-Mar Peninsular & Oriental GB GBP FY 2.38 Outperform 13 Forecast
6-Mar Redrow GB GBP H1 1.50 Buy/Outperform 12 Forecast
6-Mar Rexam GB GBP FY 1.69 Outperform 13 Forecast
6-Mar RMC Group GB GBP FY 2.89 Hold 18 Forecast
6-Mar Royal & Sun Alliance GB GBP FY 2.91 Hold 24 Forecast
6-Mar SIG Holding CH CHF FY'02 1.60 Outperform 5 Forecast
6-Mar UK Coal GB GBP FY 2.25 Outperform 4 Forecast
6-Mar Vivendi Universal F Euro prem. FY'02 2.36 Outperform 29 Forecast
7-Mar Clarke (T) GB GBP FY 2.00 Outperform 2 Forecast
7-Mar Greggs GB GBP FY 2.00 Outperform 7 Forecast
7-Mar International Power GB GBP FY 2.41 Outperform 18 Forecast
7-Mar Wetherspoon J D GB GBP H1 2.50 Outperform/Hold 20 Forecast


Key US results this week
Result Date Company name Country Results Consensus Rec No. Anl Earnings
3-Mar Healthsouth corp US Q4 3.00 Hold 14 Forecast
3-Mar Catellus US Q4 2.13 Outerperform 8 Forecast
4-Mar Talisman Energy US Q4 2.05 Outerperform 22 Forecast
4-Mar Bank Nova Scotia US Q1 2.67 Hold 12 Forecast
4-Mar Pall Corp US Q2 2.60 Hold 10 Forecast
4-Mar Autozone Inc US Q2 1.89 Outerperform 9 Forecast
4-Mar Chico's Fas US Q4 1.86 Outerperform 14 Forecast
5-Mar Genzyme US Q4 2.44 Outerperform 16 Forecast
5-Mar Toys "R" Us Corp US Q4 3.27 Hold 11 Forecast
5-Mar PetSmart US Q4 2.33 Outerperform 3 Forecast
5-Mar Saks Inc US Q4 3.33 Hold 12 Forecast
5-Mar Costco Wholesale US Q2 2.32 Outerperform 22 Forecast

The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=underperform and 5=sell.

Kayak - 05 Mar 2003 23:08 - 33 of 95

IT, put

&ltpre&gt

before your table and it will work a lot better...

TWICE AS NICE - 06 Mar 2003 00:23 - 34 of 95

ROFLMFAO !

Insider trader - 10 Mar 2003 17:28 - 35 of 95

The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.
UK and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo AnlEPSRevenue
10-MarAlliance UnichemGBFY2.18Outperform1136.207868
10-MarBovis HomesGBFY2.31Outperform1358.70445
10-MarBristol-Myers SquibbUSQ43.00Hold272.4119,087
10-MarContinentalDprem. FY1.95Outperform221.8811421
10-MarDeutsche TelekomDprem. FY2.51Hold39-5.9353128
10-MarExelGBFY2.33Outperform2138.384686
10-MarIMIGBFY2.33Outperform1518.891581
10-MarIntertek TestingGBFY2.80Hold524.30461
10-MarJo-Ann StoresUSQ42.00Outperform40.101,570
10-MarNet2PhoneUSQ21.00Buy1-1.59138
10-MarSpirax-Sarco EngineeringGBFY2.33Outperform934.63292
10-MarSureWest CommunicationsUSQ43.00Hold20.57186
10-MarTaylor Nelson SofresGBFY2.36Outperform148.60618
10-MarTravis PerkinsGBFY2.67Hold1090.261413
10-MarWilliam HillGBFY2.62Hold1317.973282
11-MarAcambisGBFY2.06Outperform164.6578
11-Maradidas-SalomonDFY2.25Outperform285.686867
11-MarAegis GroupGBFY2.39Outperform194.00555
11-MarAMB Generali Holding DFY2.73Hold114.190
11-MarAxon GroupGBH22.88Hold85.0042
11-MarBaldaDFY3.14Hold70.12184
11-MarBrammerGBFY3.25Hold48.65330
11-MarComputerlinksDFY1.00Buy21.06174
11-MarFuelCell EnergyUSQ12.44Outperform9-1.2541
11-MarHeywood WilliamsGBFY2.00Outperform515.25638
11-MarICM Computer GroupGBH11.50Buy/Outperform217.2579
11-MarIDS ScheerDFY2.00Outperform130.42198
11-MarJomed CHFY4.00Underperform60.56221
11-MarMorgan CrucibleGBFY2.67Hold125.30900
11-MarOMVAUFY2.80Hold1611.507736
11-MarRetail DecisionsGBFY3.00Hold21.500
11-MarSIGGBFY1.71Outperform729.981150
11-MarSpectrisGBFY2.29Outperform827.10487
11-MarStewart EnterprisesUSQ12.25Outperform40.40581
11-MarTechnotransDFY2.13Outperform80.51120
11-MarTelspecGBFY3.00Hold22.0542
11-MarWavelight Laser TechnologieDH12.00Outperform20.6447
11-MarWSP GroupGBFY1.75Outperform813.00256
11-MarWyevale Garden CentresGBFY2.10Outperform1024.05166
12-MarASK CentralGBFY1.67Outperform1311.9595
12-MarBiocompatiblesGBFY2.00Outperform4-41.8623
12-MarCanary WharfGBH12.45Outperform111.250
12-MarCarillionGBFY2.08Outperform1215.811886
12-MarComputacenter ServicesGBFY3.33Hold1017.501953
12-MarFrench ConnectionGBFY1.50Buy/Outperform695.95243
12-MarFootlockerUSQ41.70Outperform100.984,379
12-MarGeheDFY2.18Outperform232.8418533
12-MarHerley IndustriesUSQ22.60Hold50.8393
12-MarHorizon TechnologyGBFY4.00Underperform20.05329
12-MarJulius B HoldingCHFY3.00Hold1118.100
12-MarMichaels StoresUSQ41.50Buy121.502,531
12-MarPSI DFY3.50Hold/Underperform2-0.97140
12-MarSmiths GroupGBH12.14Outperform2150.703130
12-MarTibbett & BrittenGBFY2.29Outperform1438.681528
12-MarTrafficmasterGBFY3.00Hold2-5.3240
12-MarVestas Wind SystemsDKFY3.47Hold192.899654
12-MarVolkswagenDFY2.69Outperform356.3590126
12-Mar4Imprint GroupGBFY2.67Hold35.6097
13-MarAbbot GroupGBFY1.80Outperform59.25451
13-MarAdobe SystemsUSQ12.81Hold160.951,165
13-MarAixtronDEFY3.14Hold140.27152
13-MarAlkane EnergyGBFY2.50Outperform/Hold3-0.791
13-MarAlvisGBFY2.50Outperform/Hold47.05210
13-MarBayerDFY2.86Hold281.7329701
13-MarCharles TaylorGBFY1.67Outperform322.000
13-MarClaires StoresUSQ42.00Outperform30.84919
13-MarCondirectDEFY3.00Hold11-0.120
13-MarCorus GBFY3.00Hold18-10.307351
13-MarDeltaGBFY2.57Hold76.00502
13-MarDevroGBFY3.00Hold55.84136
13-MarDicks SportingUSQ41.40Buy51.741,264
13-MarGeestGBFY2.17Outperform1243.60765
13-MarIM International MediaDprem. FY2.00Outperform2-1.10253
13-MarInterserveGBFY1.64Outperform1130.901179
13-MarISSDKFY2.00Outperform2025.7438040
13-MarK+SDFY1.60Outperform52.072776
13-MarMcAlpineGBFY2.13Outperform820.28750
13-MarNational ExpressGBFY2.64Hold1457.092510
13-MarSalzgitterDFY2.38Outperform91.014672
13-MarSGL CarbonDFY2.89Hold9-1.191126
13-MarThalesFFY2.04Outperform252.1811142
13-MarWebmd CorpUSQ42.64Hold11-0.24707
13-MarWolfordAUQ31.00Buy10.250
14-MarPam Transport ServicesUSQ41.00Buy31.18226

Insider trader - 17 Mar 2003 08:34 - 36 of 95

edited

Insider trader - 19 Mar 2003 17:14 - 37 of 95

Updated now with working links in the header.

Indianna_Jones - 01 Apr 2003 18:21 - 38 of 95

Hi IT!

Insider trader - 01 Apr 2003 18:23 - 39 of 95

How ya doing old buddy, making still no doubt!

Indianna_Jones - 01 Apr 2003 18:25 - 40 of 95

Indeed ..... especially over the past two months!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Insider trader - 07 Apr 2003 10:10 - 41 of 95


UK, US and European results this week
Result Date Company name Country Results Consensus Rec No Anl Earnings
7-Apr Fibernet Group GB H1 2.60 Hold 5 Forecast
7-Apr MBNA Corporation US Q1 2.42 Outperform 24 Forecast
Tuesday
8-Apr Continental D FY 2.00 Outperform 24 Forecast
8-Apr Corin Group GB FY 2.33 Outperform 3 Forecast
8-Apr JJB Sports GB FY 2.53 Hold 16 Forecast
8-Apr LA Fitness GB H1 2.83 Hold 6 Forecast
8-Apr Robotic Technology Systems GB FY 4.00 Underperform 2 Forecast
8-Apr Severfield-Rowen GB FY 1.50 Buy/Outperform 2 Forecast
8-Apr Stada Arzneimittel D FY 1.92 Outperform 12 Forecast
8-Apr Swiss Life Holding CH FY 3.11 Hold 9 Forecast
8-Apr Tesco GB FY 2.44 Outperform 30 Forecast
8-Apr TV Loonland D FY 4.00 Underperform 1 Forecast
8-Apr Wella D FY 2.08 Outperform 14 Forecast
Wednesday
9-Apr Austin Reed Group GB FY 1.67 Outperform 4 Forecast
9-Apr Axa Konzern D FY 4.00 Underperform 1 Forecast
9-Apr Beattie (James) GB FY 2.67 Hold 4 Forecast
9-Apr Bon Appetit Group CH FY 3.33 Hold 3 Forecast
9-Apr Christopher & Banks Corp. US Q4 2.00 Outperform 7 Forecast
9-Apr DaimlerChrysler D AGM 2.62 Hold 38 Forecast
9-Apr Douglas Holding D FY 2.93 Hold 15 Forecast
9-Apr Genetech US Q1 2.68 Hold 28 Forecast
9-Apr Sonus Networks Inc US Q1 3.00 Hold 8 Forecast
9-Apr ST Ives Group GB H1 3.20 Hold 6 Forecast
9-Apr Sunderland GB H1 2.00 Outperform 1 Forecast
Thursday
10-Apr Bellway GB H1 1.92 Outperform 12 Forecast
10-Apr Commerce Bancorp Inc US Q1 2.27 Outperform 11 Forecast
10-Apr Duerr D FY 3.00 Hold 5 Forecast
10-Apr First Data Corp US Q1 1.93 Outperform 28 Forecast
10-Apr Hochtief D FY 2.33 Outperform 6 Forecast
10-Apr IVG Immobilien D FY 2.00 Outperform 8 Forecast
10-Apr Knig & Bauer D FY 2.56 Hold 9 Forecast
10-Apr Pier 1 Imports Inc US Q4 1.92 Outperform 12 Forecast
10-Apr Rheinmetall D FY 2.00 Outperform 4 Forecast
10-Apr Sirius Financial Solutions GB FY 2.00 Outperform 3 Forecast
10-Apr SunTrust Banks Inc US Q1 3.06 Hold 18 Forecast
10-Apr SuperValue Inc US Q4 2.33 Outperform 9 Forecast
Friday
11-Apr Leifheit D FY 3.00 Hold 1 Forecast
11-Apr Moss Bros Group GB FY 1.33 Buy 3 Forecast
11-Apr Pressac GB AR 3.00 Hold 2 Forecast
11-Apr S&U GB FY 1.00 Buy 1 Forecast
11-Apr Sports Resource Group GB FY 3.50 Hold/Underperform 2 Forecast
11-Apr The Television Corp GB FY 2.17 Outperform 6 Forecast
11-Apr Wellington Underwriting GB FY 2.50 Outperform 4 Forecast

The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=underperform and 5=sell.

Insider trader - 16 Apr 2003 10:11 - 42 of 95

Good to be back...... The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.
UK, US and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo. AnlEPSRevenue
14-AprAareal BankDFY1.45Buy122.21
14-AprBe SystecDFY1.00Buy12.03205
14-AprColiseum GroupGBFY1.00Buy1-1.026
14-AprFleetBoston FinancialUSQ12.48Outperform232.41 11,766
14-AprHannover RkversicherungDFY2.30Outperform242.70
14-AprHenkelDAGM2.23Outperform223.309,883
14-AprIWKADFY1.78Outperform90.982,334
14-AprNew York Times CoUSQ12.36Outperform142.17 3,262
14-AprPubs 'N' BarsGBFY1.00Buy23.9514
14-AprPVA TePla DFY2.00Outperform1-0.1620
14-AprUnisys CorpUSQ12.80Hold100.785,784
Tuesday
15-AprBank One CorpUSQ12.88Hold243.0517,347
15-AprBilfinger BergerDFY1.75Outperform41.944,669
15-AprBrit Insurance HoldingsGBFY1.00Buy33.54
15-AprCitigroup IncUSQ12.06Outperform173.2276,537
15-AprDebenhamsGBH12.52Hold2132.201,803
15-AprE*Trade GroupUSQ12.25Outperform40.491,427
15-AprFuchs PetrolubDFY1.00Buy111.26
15-AprGeorgicaGBFY1.50Buy/Outperform24.00123
15-AprGannett CoUSQ12.53Hold174.56 6,677
15-AprJohnson & JohnsonUSQ12.47Outperform192.6240,850
15-AprKnight-Ridder IncUSQ12.57Hold143.78 2,929
15-AprIntel CorporationUSQ12.47Outperform320.60 28,267
15-AprInter-Alliance GroupGBFY3.00Hold2-12.05
15-AprLloyds British TestingGBAGM1.00Buy12.91
15-AprManpowerUSQ12.00Outperform161.81 11,651
15-AprMicrosoftUSQ31.71Outperform281.01 31,953
15-AprNovartisCHQ12.21Outperform423.1034,769
15-AprSalzgitterDFY2.88Hold81.114,795
15-AprState Street CorporationUSQ12.88Hold162.03 4,378
15-AprTimberland CompanyUSQ11.75Outperform42.82 1,279
Wednesday
16-AprAdvanced Micro DevicesUSQ13.38Hold21-0.993,004
16-AprAir Partner GBH11.00Buy18.9092
16-AprAssociated British FoodsGBH12.65Hold1742.264,950
16-AprBank of New YorkUSQ13.00Hold141.735,402
16-AprClinton CardsGBFY1.20Buy524.30308
16-AprCoca-Cola CompanyUSQ!2.05Outperform191.8420,793
16-AprEMC CorporationUSQ12.85Hold270.116,000
16-AprGeneral DynamicsUSQ12.60Hold204.94 14,872
16-AprHornbach BaumarktDprem. FY1.00Buy10.99
16-AprHornbach HoldingDprem. FY1.00Buy22.67
16-AprKarstadtQuelleDFY3.60Underperform201.3915,872
16-AprKraft FoodsUSQ12.06Outperform17230,628
16-AprLeoniDFY1.14Buy74.681,150
16-AprRowan Companies IncUSQ11.90Outperform200.27700
16-AprStryker CorporationUSQ12.50Outperform222.113,447
16-AprSulzerDAGM3.00Hold725.401,888
Thursday
17-AprHershey Foods CorpUSQ12.56Hold183.54,220
17-AprMattel IncUSQ12.00Outperform161.255,066
17-AprMediclinDFY5.00Sell20.28419
17-AprSAPDQ12.55Hold423.517,667
17-AprSmith WHGBH13.42Hold1934.453,002

Insider trader - 16 Apr 2003 10:13 - 43 of 95

This table indicates how broker recommendations for key FTSE 100 companies have changed in the last 24 hours. It details how great the rating change has been and reasons for this change. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=Buy, 2=Outperform, 3=Hold, 4=Underperform and 5=Sell.
 14th Apr15th AprChangeConsensus RatingBroker Change
Amvescap3.233.230.0%HoldAmvescap shares lifted as concerns over the solvency levels for insurers, fund managers and banks with insurance arms eased following Monday's gain in the Dow Jones industrial averages
AstraZeneca2.412.43arrowdown.gif-0.8%OutperformING downgrades AZN as it expects 2003 to be a very challenging year for the pharmaceutical giant
Aviva2.352.350.0%OutperformLike Amvescap, shares in Aviva soared as concerns over solvency eased, however its ratings remains steady
Daily Mail & General Trust2.832.830.0%HoldCSFB downgrades its forecasts ahead of the group's results at the end of the month. Among its reasons for this decision the broker cites the weak advertising market and the group's increased promotional spend
Hilton Group2.822.820.0%HoldMany market observers voice support for Hilton as it face the new competition posed by Intercontinental Hotels (formerly part of Six Continents), but rating sticks.
HSBC33.04arrowdown.gif-1.3%HoldIn spite of UBS upgrading its forecasts, the rating for the group falters
Invensys3.063.060.0%HoldFollowing its disposal news Invensys shares soared but many brokers, including Deutsche and JP Morgan, reiterate "neutral/hold" ratings until further details are known
Lloyds TSB Group2.692.690.0%HoldLloyds also lifted in line with other stocks as solvency concerns are eased, however this was not enough to spark a response from brokers
Prudential2.942.940.0%HoldGoldman Sachs named Pru as its prefered life stock, this caused a lift in the shares but not in the rating.
Safeway3.053.050.0%HoldQ4 trading statement reveals a dip in sales as the retailer battles against the uncertainty of the bidding situation. Many brokers had been expecting this so the rating stays the same

ainsoph - 16 Apr 2003 10:23 - 44 of 95

Welcome back ... to you and the posts

Insider trader - 16 Apr 2003 10:26 - 45 of 95

Thanks ainsoph, I have been in hospital.

ainsoph - 16 Apr 2003 10:37 - 46 of 95

nothing too serious I trust?

Insider trader - 16 Apr 2003 10:48 - 47 of 95

Hopefully not, I notice you dont post on the other side anymore, I take it you got fed up with the usual suspects.

ainsoph - 16 Apr 2003 11:34 - 48 of 95

:-))

It got boring after a while and happy to post here - it doesn't take long to post and although quiet I do know a lot of people look in albeit they don't always post. Not posted on the dark side for over two months ....... miss it like a hole in the head - as they say.


ains

little woman - 21 Apr 2003 13:38 - 49 of 95

Please keep going, I was wondering were this disappeared to.

I must admit it's much easier to use the links here than from "my favorites" which has so many that I struggle to remember which one to use!

Also helps with ideas for companies to take a more detailed look at. (too many companies out there, and although I have a couple of sectors I have stuck with, I have to regulary re-evalute as many are not currently sectors to "buy" into, and it could be sometime before my view on them changes........ so I kinda keep up just in case!)

shagnasty - 21 Apr 2003 13:43 - 50 of 95

ROFLMAO

Difficult to post when you are banned,

LOL!!!

Insider trader - 21 Apr 2003 18:49 - 51 of 95

The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.
UK, US and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo AnlEPSRevenue
21-AprBaker Hughes IncUSQ12.15Outperform261.085,322
21-AprBoston Scientific CorpUSQ11.79Outperform241.283,320
21-AprLexmark IncUSQ12.30Outperform103.154,611
21-AprMerck & CoUSQ12.83Hold293.456,309
Tuesday
22-AprAmgen IncUSQ11.66Outperform291.767,652
22-AprBrown & JacksonGBFY1.00Buy33.6
22-AprEli Lilly & CoUSQ12.41Outperform292.5412,141
22-AprLockheed Martin CorpUSQ11.90Outperform202.1929,349
22-AprSchering-PloughUSQ13.00Hold280.759,280
Wednesday
23-AprARC InternationalGBQ12.00Outperform6-514
23-AprBell South CorpUSQ12.94Hold351.8527,676
23-AprBoeing CorpUSQ12.71Hold211.9849,235
23-AprBuderusDFY2.87Hold151.751920
23-AprCardinal HealthUSQ11.79Outperform193.1950,894
23-AprEastman Kodak CompanyUSQ13.75Underperform42.5512,840
22-AprFerraris GroupGBH12.00Outperform316.268
23-AprHt & WesselDFY2.00Outperform1-0.1582
23-AprImperial Oil LimitedUSQ13.09Hold113.616,072
23-AprLambda PhysikDH13.00Hold100.2399
23-AprMalcolm GroupGBFY1.00Buy27.21101
23-AprMBNA CorpUSQ12.42Outperform241.5913,974
23-AprPunch TavernsGBH12.40Outperform1030.3421
23-AprStraumann HoldingCHAGM2.00Outperform134.29317
23-AprVosslohDQ11.83Outperform63.79872
23-AprWyethUSQ12.43Outperform282.4515,686
Thursday
24-AprActif GroupGBH12.00Outperform11
24-AprAllied DomecqGBH12.65Hold2032.023499
24-AprBlack & DeckerUSQ12.07Outperform153.544,455
24-AprBHW HoldingDFY3.56Underperform90.57
24-AprCIBA Specialty ChemicalsCHQ12.56Hold276.467000
24-AprDaimlerChryslerDQ12.58Hold373.58148641
24-AprDFS FurnitureGBH12.00Outperform1336.35501
24-AprFielmannDFY1.75Outperform122.41705
24-AprGeheDAGM2.10Outperform213.0219540
24-AprHitachi CreditGBFY3.00Hold418.7
24-AprKellogg CoUSQ12.53Hold171.898,542
24-AprKilnGBFY2.67Hold34.45
24-AprLoeweDFY4.00Underperform70.62364
24-AprMannheimer AGDFY3.00Hold2-4.72
24-AprMLPDFY3.53Underperform16-0.18
24-AprNobel Biocare HoldingCHAGM2.38Outperform1321.893268
24-AprNortel NetworksUSQ12.70Hold37-0.039,633
24-AprSBC Communications IncUSQ12.91Hold341.6149,996
24-AprSiemensDInterims2.61Hold392.2978528
24-AprSoftware DQ13.40Underperform250.56465
24-AprStyloGBFY3.00Hold1
24-AprWeb.deDQ12.00Outperform30.0544
Friday
25-AprAmadeusDprem. FY1.67Outperform30.6264
25-AprAutonomy CorpGBQ13.43Hold144.1735
25-AprAvon ProductsUSQ12.22Outperform92.566,561
25-AprMasterflexDFY1.00Buy10.656
25-AprP&O Princess CruisesGBQ12.44Outperform1034.031924
25-AprRegusGBFYNo ratingNo rating1
25-AprRohwedderDFY3.00Hold10.75
25-AprSigma TechnologyGBFY3.00Hold1

Insider trader - 24 Apr 2003 09:03 - 52 of 95

This table indicates how broker recommendations for key FTSE 100 companies have changed in the last 24 hours. It details how great the rating change has been and reasons for this change. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=Buy, 2=Outperform, 3=Hold, 4=Underperform and 5=Sell.
 22nd Apr23rd AprChangeConsensus RatingBroker Change
Allied Domecq2.612.83arrowdown.gif-8.4%HoldAhead of tomorrow's interim results HSBC reiterates "reduce" rating as it believes the risks are on the downside, while DKW says "buy" but continues to prefer rival, Pernod Ricard
AstraZeneca2.432.44arrowdown.gif-0.4%OutperformRating moves slightly ahead of Q1 figures out next week and on positive Q1 figures from US peer Eli Lilly
BHP Billiton2.452.5arrowdown.gif-2.0%OutperformQ3 trading report reveals a weak performance in oil and gas and a stronger than expected performance from mining assets, prompting a "reduce" rating from Investec
Friends Provident2.732.81arrowdown.gif-2.9%HoldLehman initiates coverage with an "underweight" rating, as it believes that, without a recovery in equity markets, FP will find it tough to compete in the UK market
GlaxoSmithKline2.92.92arrowdown.gif-0.7%HoldRating slips as BSCH and CDC Ixis reduce full year forecasts ahead of next week's Q1 results
Legal & General2.572.63arrowdown.gif-2.3%HoldLehman initiates coverage with "underweight" rating, as the broker fears LGEN will use its capital strength to support an unsustainable dividend payment
Reuters3.63.60.0%UnderperformShares lift as the UK market, European media sector and the investment banking community rise. However in spite of being one of the main risers on the FTSE today its rating sticks
Sage2.973arrowdown.gif-1.0%HoldUBS downgrades to "neutral" as the broker highlights the negative underlying license momentum and the unimpressive organic growth rate of 2-3%
Scottish & Newcastle2.963arrowdown.gif-1.4%BuySmith Barney points out that fears of a dividend cut will continue to hang on the shares until the cut is announced or until substantial cash flow improvements are seen
WPP3.043.040.0%HoldWilliams says "hold" ahead of WPP's Q1 revenue figures on Friday. The broker expects revenue to be slightly down but the outlook to be brighter as improvements are seen in advertising market, but it adds the group will remain vulnerable to company specific problems

Insider trader - 28 Apr 2003 07:26 - 53 of 95

The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.
UK, US and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo AnlEPSRevenue
28-AprAmbientGBFY2.00Outperform2
28-AprMacdonald's CorpUSQ12.61Hold181.3215,828
28-AprPPL TherapeuticsGBFY3.25Hold4-10.101
28-AprProcter & GambleUSQ31.73Outperform114.0643,060
28-AprABBCHQ13.52Hold290.1825051
Tuesday
29-AprABN AmroNLAGM2.39Outperform381.59
29-AprAlexandraGBFY2.00Outperform28.1074
29-AprAllianzDAGM2.95Hold232.80
29-AprBASFDQ12.43Outperform282.5733025
29-AprBijou BrigitteDFY1.50Buy/Outperform25.43119
29-AprBookham TechnologyGBQ13.00Hold7-30.20100
29-AprBPGBQ12.88Hold3229.00108921
29-AprBritish American TobaccoGBQ12.38Outperform1667.5411382
29-AprCewe Color HoldingDFY1.67Outperform32.69450
29-AprE.I. DuPont de NemoursUSQ12.38Outperform161.8125,314
29-AprEuropean Motor HoldingsGBFY2.33Outperform314.50450
29-AprFraportDFY2.22Outperform231.751942
29-AprHawesko HoldingDFY & Q12.75Hold41.64278
29-AprIDS ScheerDQ11.85Outperform130.45197
29-AprInfineon DH13.13Hold38-0.365943
29-AprJenoptikDFY2.50Outperform110.842086
29-AprMcGrawHill Companies IncUSQ12.68Hold133.204,994
29-AprMerckDQ13.31Hold261.637686
29-AprNorthop Grumman CorpUSQ12.11Outperform183.8125,482
29-AprOxford GlycosciencesGBFY3.42Hold15-58.4014
29-AprSAP Systems IntegrationDQ12.50Outperform/Hold140.71302
29-AprSartoriusDFY2.00Outperform10.43493
29-AprSyzygyDQ12.00Outperform30.1916
29-AprTakktDQ12.67Hold60.63814
29-AprWestburyGBFY2.11Outperform957.90773
Wednesday
30-AprAberdeen Asset Management GBH12.50Outperform/Hold79.89
30-AprAdidas-SalomonDQ12.24Outperform265.756850
30-AprAstraZenecaGBQ12.43Outperform4599.0711030
30-AprBlacks LeisureGBFY1.67Outperform922.90217
30-AprCelaneseDQ12.39Outperform181.994596
30-AprClear Channel CommunicationsUSQ11.80Outperform251.278,765
30-AprDeutsche BankDQ12.70Hold372.69
30-AprDuke Energy CorporationUSQ13.17Hold241.3920,403
30-AprE.ONDAGM2.35Outperform343.9745419
30-AprExelon CorporationUSQ12.53Hold174.9015,640
30-AprGame GroupGBFY2.62Hold135.94531
30-AprGFKDFY2.00Outperform81.10597
30-AprGlaxoSmithKlineGBQ12.92Hold3981.8121701
30-AprIntershop CommunicationsDQ13.50Hold/Underperform3-0.0549
30-AprMetroDFY2.34Outperform301.4754267
30-AprPressacGBFY3.00Hold21.00134
30-AprRugby EstateGBFY3.33Hold389.60
30-AprScheringDQ12.11Outperform382.555266
30-AprSchwarz PharmaDQ12.22Outperform95.961941
30-AprSplendid MedienDFY5.00Sell1-3.4436
30-AprThe Southern CompanyUSQ12.86Hold211.8410,811
30-AprWhitbreadGBFY2.50Outperform/Hold1850.251868
Thursday
1-MayImperial Chemical IndustriesGBQ12.68Hold1917.155841
1-MayJennings BrothersGBFY3.00Hold116.4017
1-MayJohn David GroupGBFY3.50Hold/Underperform824.69406
1-MayPhytopharmGBH12.40Outperform5-10.102
1-MayShilohGBFY1.00Buy111.3045
1-MayShire PharmaceuticalGBQ12.63Hold1934.37744
1-MayThompson CorpUSQ12.56Hold161.148,020
1-MayTyco International LtdUSH11.67Outperform121.4330,077
1-MayThe Walt Disney CorpUSH12.41Outperform290.6426,749
Friday
2-MayGiardino GroupGBFY2.50Outperform/Hold27.4024
2-MayShell Transport &TradingGBQ12.50Outperform/Hold2627.4696288
2-MayUnileverGBQ12.05Outperform2241.4131434
This table indicates how broker recommendations for key FTSE 100 companies have changed in the last 24 hours. It details how great the rating change has been and reasons for this change. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=Buy, 2=Outperform, 3=Hold, 4=Underperform and 5=Sell.
 24th Apr25th AprChangeConsensus RatingBroker Change
Amvescap3.363.43arrowdown.gif-2.1%HoldDKW downgrades rating to "sell" as the broker feels the stock's recent strength following the rally in US equities provides an opportunity to sell.
Anglo American2.672.71arrowdown.gif-1.5%HoldSmith Barney lowers its rating to "underperform" as the broker believes that BHP Billiton's and Rio Tinto's exposure to higher margin commodities will allow them to outperform Anglo American
AstraZeneca2.482.49arrowdown.gif-0.4%OutperformAhead of Q1 results on 30th April brokers remain divided, ranging from Williams who say "sell" to UBS who says "buy. Given the division the rating continues to falter.
British Land2.152.23arrowdown.gif-3.7%OutperformCSFB's recent look at the property market has shown that the several key property areas have continued to weaken. CSFB revises its forecast on British land to "neutral" as a result
Canary Wharf33.11arrowdown.gif-3.7%HoldCWG is also downgraded by CSFB to "underperform" as part of the broker's review of the property sector, which highlighted CWG's key market in Central London as one of the markets that has weakened
Granada2.782.86arrowdown.gif-2.9%HoldTV forecast advertising figures for June reveal a further decline in the advertising market. Merrill notes that comparables were tough, but admits that after its strong run recently GAA may suffer as this news filters through the market
Hilton Group2.822.91arrowdown.gif-3.2%HoldConditions in the hotel sector are expected to remain volatile in the short term following the war in Iraq and now the SARS virus, which in turn causes the ratings for key hotels stocks to suffer
Liberty International3.213.14arrowup.gif2.2%HoldFollowing its strong first half performance in shopping centres, CSFB has upgraded its rating to "neutral" from "underperform"
Prudential2.72.70.0%Awaiting ChangeMorgan Stanley has downgraded PRU following its concerns for the group's tight cash flow
Vodafone2.122.11arrowup.gif0.5%OutperformMerrill reiterates its positive view on the European telecom market and Deutsche also issues a positive note on the telecom giant in which it lifts its forecast ahead of FY results on 27th May

Insider trader - 29 Apr 2003 07:23 - 54 of 95

This table indicates how broker recommendations for key FTSE 100 companies have changed in the last 24 hours. It details how great the rating change has been and reasons for this change. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=Buy, 2=Outperform, 3=Hold, 4=Underperform and 5=Sell.
 25th Apr28th AprChangeConsensus RatingBroker Change
Anglo American2.712.81arrowdown.gif-3.7%HoldAs part of a review of the mining sector Williams de Broe has downgraded Anglo American to "hold"
BHP Billiton2.52.6arrowdown.gif-4.0%HoldAlso as part of its mining review Williams lowers BHP to "sell", adding that falling oil prices and a drop in oil production is expected to cause BHP to underperform the sector
BP2.882.84arrowup.gif1.4%HoldBP's rating lifts as many brokers reiterate positive stances on the stock ahead of tomorrow's Q1 figures
BT Group2.62.62arrowdown.gif-0.8%HoldRating falters as press reports indicate that BT could be back on the acquisition trail
Dixons2.522.54arrowdown.gif-0.8%HoldHopes that it won't be penalised following the probe into the extended warranty market caused the shares to lift, but trading conditions remain tough and the consumer outlook is uncertain. This situation has prompted downgrades from CSFB ("neutral") and Merrill ("sell") and upgrades from Deutsche ("buy"), DKW ("add") and Goldman Sachs ("outperform")
Intercontinental Hotels2.42.5arrowdown.gif-4.2%OutperformMorgan Stanley initiates coverage with an "equal weight" rating as it sees strong growth potential. However tough trading conditions and concerns over whether it is a potential takeover target continue to plague the stock
Next2.742.83arrowdown.gif-3.3%HoldDKW downgrades to "hold" as it predicts H1 profits will be down given the retailer's tough comparables and the increasing competition
Rio Tinto2.822.91arrowdown.gif-3.2%HoldWilliams downgrades to "hold", but adds it will suffer less than peers given its lack of exposure to South Africa
Vodafone2.112.03arrowup.gif3.8%OutperformNomura upgrades to "buy" as it expects VOD's full year figures (late May) to exceed expectations
WPP Group3.042.96arrowup.gif2.6%HoldWilliams upgrades to "buy" based on better than expected Q1 advertising data from the US

Insider trader - 23 May 2003 07:42 - 55 of 95

This table indicates how broker recommendations for key FTSE companies have changed in the last 24 hours. It details how great the rating change has been and reasons for this change. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=Buy, 2=Outperform, 3=Hold, 4=Underperform and 5=Sell.
  21st May 22nd May Change Consensus Rating Broker Change
Abbey National 2.83 2.75 arrowup.gif 2.8% Hold WLBP reiterates its "buy" rating despite the shares climbing 50% in recent weeks. It has set a 646p target price.
British American Tobacco 2.38 2.44 arrowdown.gif -2.5% Outperform A Florida court's decision to overturn the original ruling against BAT cause Deutsche to up its target price to 710p from 670p. But Goldman Sachs downgraded to in-line from outperform believing there is little room for improvement.
Compass Group 2.25 2.2 arrowup.gif 2.2% Outperform Morgan Stanley ups its rating to Outperform with a 345p target price, believing we will see another year of strong operational performance.
Dixons 2.65 2.59 arrowup.gif 2.3% Hold Merrill Lynch restates its "sell" position as trading remains tough and downside risks remain.
Great Universal Stores 2.41 2.35 arrowup.gif 2.5% Outperform UBS Warburg, DKW and Deutsche Bank all reiterate their positive ratings ahead of next week's results.
Granada 2.71 2.64 arrowup.gif 2.6% Hold Investec restates its "buy" rating and 135p target following the results. Meanwhile Merrill lowers revenue targets but raises earnings and profit numbers to reflect improved efficiencies.
Marks & Spencer 2.85 2.77 arrowup.gif 2.8% Hold Teather & Greenwood ups its rating to "hold" believing shares are recovering and cashflow is strong enough to support a buyback programme. Charles Stanley reiterates its "buy" rating.
National Grid Transco 2.42 2.18 arrowup.gif 9.9% Outperform JP Morgan lowers its fair value estimate to 515p from 556p to reflect adverse US dollar movements. HSBC reiterates its "buy" rating and 475p target price despite NGT's 7% premium to the sector. It believes NGT's share buybacks limit the downside risk.
Reuters 3.59 3.26 arrowup.gif 9.2% Hold Morgan Stanley moves to "overweight" from underweight and increases its target price to 220p from 130p. It is now more optimistic over product improvements and competitor capacity and believes outstanding risks to forex and pricing are already reflected in its estimates. WLBP also ups its rating to "buy".
Rolls-Royce 3.47 3.56 arrowdown.gif -2.6% Hold CSFB reiterates its "underperform" rating because of concerns over a owrsening travel industry postion.

Insider trader - 24 May 2003 21:17 - 56 of 95

  23rd May 27th May Change Consensus Rating Broker Change
Allied Domecq 2.71 2.63 arrowup.gif 3.0% Hold Williams de Broupgrades Allied to "buy" as it is now the preferred beverage play ahead of SABMiller
BT Group 2.68 2.59 arrowup.gif 3.4% Hold Many brokers amend their estimates following the telecom group's results last week. Deutsche ups sales, PBT and EPS targets, whereas Exane lowers all three. JP Morgan lowers sales but ups EPS. WLBP reiterates "buy" rating and 240p target price, heartened by the improvement in net debt position. Meanwhile, Lehman adds BT as a short to its European monthly focus list.
Hanson 2.83 2.72 arrowup.gif 3.9% Hold Teather & Greenwood ups its rating to "buy". Meanwhile, Smith Barney notes that Hanson has made greater provision for potential asbestos risk relative to its liabilities than peer, Saint Gobain.
Royal & Sun Alliance 3.13 3.17 arrowdown.gif -1.3% Hold Goldman downgrades to "in-line" from outperform following the share price rally that occurred on the back of better than expected results, believing there is lmited upside to the current value.
SABMiller 2.89 3.11 arrowdown.gif -7.6% Hold Lehman lowers its rating to "underweight", ABN Amro lowers to "sell" following the revelation that management expects Miller's decline to continue a further two years.
Scottish & Newcastle 2.79 2.71 arrowup.gif 2.9% Hold Williams de Broups rating to "buy" but HSBC still says "reduce".
Tomkins 2.82 2.76 arrowup.gif 2.1% Hold Deutsche upgrades to "hold" following the first quarter results and ups the target price to 192p from 155p. Meanwhile, UBSWarburg downgrades to "neutral" following a recent strong performance by the shares. UBS maintains its 240p target price.
MM02 2.56 2.59 arrowdown.gif -1.2% Hold Goldman downgrades to "in-line" from outperform. It believes there may be upside potential if 02 were to sell its German business but does not view this as imminent enough to compensate for the increasing competitive risks the company faces.
3i Group 3 3.2 arrowdown.gif -6.7% Hold Bridgewell upgrades stock to "overweight", believing its upside potential is ideal for those wary of the recent rally some "long-only" financial stocks have experienced
Vodafone 1.95 1.97 arrowdown.gif -1.0% Outperform WLBP says "outperform" ahead of results with a 140p target price. CSFB thinks the shares could rise to 130p if the euro holds against the pound. Oddo thinks earnings will be "decent" but Cazenove thinks Germany is a "notable risk" to ARPU levels.

Insider trader - 25 May 2003 10:29 - 57 of 95

The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.
UK, US and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo. AnlEPSRevenue
27-May Cewe Color D Q1 1.67 Outperform 3 2.69 450
27-May D. Logistics D Q1 3.25 Hold 5 0.05 339
27-May DEAG Deutsche Entertainment D Q1 1.00 Buy 1 0.13 122
27-May Hannover Rkversicherung D AGM/Q1 2.35 Outperform 24 3.11
27-May Indus D FY 2.00 Outperform 2 3.26
27-May Microlog Logistics D Q1 2.33 Outperform 3 1.70 357
27-May MLP D Q1 3.59 Underperform 18 0.39
27-May RM GB H1 3.17 Hold 6 6.20 197
27-May Sixt D FY 3.00 Hold 2 0.58 2,130
27-May Telekom Austria AU Q1 2.42 Outperform 12 0.20 3,957
27-May TUI D Q1 3.83 Underperform 19 0.66 20,383
27-May Umweltkontor D Q1 3.50 Hold/Underperform 6 0.27 264
27-May Vodafone Group GB FY 1.95 Outperform 37 6.39 30,321
Wednesday
28-May Analytik Jena D Interims 3.00 Hold 2 0.05 80
28-May British Land GB FY 2.17 Outperform 12 21.87
28-May Costco Wholesale Corp US Q3 2.52 Hold 25 1.57 42,087
28-May De La Rue GB FY 3.25 Hold 4 17.78 548
28-May Emap GB FY 2.76 Hold 18 48.20 962
28-May Euromicron D Q1 2.00 Outperform 1 1.07 138
28-May Gauss Interprise D Q1 4.00 Underperform 1 -0.34 30
28-May Girindus D Q1 3.00 Hold 2 -0.47 31
28-May GUS GB FY 2.41 Outperform 23 46.35 7,069
28-May ICAP GB FY 1.20 Buy 5 76.50
28-May Krispy Kreme Donuts US Q1 2.14 Outperform 7
28-May LPKF Laser & Electronics D Q1 2.80 Hold 5 0.19 26
28-May Nexus D Q1 4.00 Underperform 1 36
28-May Northern Foods GB FY 3.20 Hold 15 13.90 1,405
28-May Peacock Group GB FY 2.18 Outperform 11 14.70 399
28-May Premier Farnell GB Q1 2.33 Outperform 6 11.39 768
28-May Shanks Group GB FY 2.56 Hold 9 10.60 544
28-May Szucker D FY 1.80 Outperform 10 1.48 4,406
Thursday
29-May Big Food Group GB FY 3.06 Hold 16 2.14 5,180
29-May BTG GB FY 2.75 Hold 4 -32.53 33
29-May Chloride Group GB FY 2.86 Hold 7 1.86 141
29-May Daily Mail & General Trust GB H1 2.80 Hold 11 33.00 2,011
29-May Electrocomponents GB FY 2.78 Hold 9 16.28 739
29-May Invensys GB FY 3.28 Hold 21 2.52 4,835
29-May Lonmin GB H1 2.82 Hold 18 53.94 466
29-May Pennon Group GB FY 2.77 Hold 13 47.00 408
29-May PETsMART Inc US Q1 1.8 Outperform 5
29-May Pilkington GB FY 2.69 Hold 16 6.14 2,598
29-May Plasmon GB FY 2.00 Outperform 1 9.36 61
29-May Securicor GB H1 2.00 Outperform 12 8.89 1,382
29-May Wagon GB FY 2.33 Outperform 6 14.30 445
Friday
30-May Brain Force Software D Q1 1.00 Buy 1 0.05 61
30-May Fuller, Smith & Turner GB FY 1.80 Outperform 5 45.25 139
30-May Splendid Medien D FY 5.00 Sell 1 -3.44 36
30-May Synstar GB H1 2.00 Outperform 4 3.84 233
30-May W.E.T. Automotive Systems D Q3 1.20 Buy 5 5.50 178

fenthuckpb - 27 May 2003 16:21 - 58 of 95

Nice Thread Inside Trader, good job!

Insider trader - 28 May 2003 07:05 - 59 of 95

Thanks fenthuckpb, I hope it's useful for whoever visits. This table indicates how broker recommendations for key FTSE companies have changed in the last 24 hours. It details how great the rating change has been and reasons for this change. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=Buy, 2=Outperform, 3=Hold, 4=Underperform and 5=Sell.
  23rd May 27th May Change Consensus Rating Broker Change
Allied Domecq 2.71 2.63 arrowup.gif 3.0% Hold Williams de Broupgrades Allied to "buy" as it is now the preferred beverage play ahead of SABMiller
BT Group 2.68 2.59 arrowup.gif 3.4% Hold Many brokers amend their estimates following the telecom group's results last week. Deutsche ups sales, PBT and EPS targets, whereas Exane lowers all three. JP Morgan lowers sales but ups EPS. WLBP reiterates "buy" rating and 240p target price, heartened by the improvement in net debt position. Meanwhile, Lehman adds BT as a short to its European monthly focus list.
Hanson 2.83 2.72 arrowup.gif 3.9% Hold Teather & Greenwood ups its rating to "buy". Meanwhile, Smith Barney notes that Hanson has made greater provision for potential asbestos risk relative to its liabilities than peer, Saint Gobain.
Royal & Sun Alliance 3.13 3.17 arrowdown.gif -1.3% Hold Goldman downgrades to "in-line" from outperform following the share price rally that occurred on the back of better than expected results, believing there is lmited upside to the current value.
SABMiller 2.89 3.11 arrowdown.gif -7.6% Hold Lehman lowers its rating to "underweight", ABN Amro lowers to "sell" following the revelation that management expects Miller's decline to continue a further two years.
Scottish & Newcastle 2.79 2.71 arrowup.gif 2.9% Hold Williams de Broups rating to "buy" but HSBC still says "reduce".
Tomkins 2.82 2.76 arrowup.gif 2.1% Hold Deutsche upgrades to "hold" following the first quarter results and ups the target price to 192p from 155p. Meanwhile, UBSWarburg downgrades to "neutral" following a recent strong performance by the shares. UBS maintains its 240p target price.
MM02 2.56 2.59 arrowdown.gif -1.2% Hold Goldman downgrades to "in-line" from outperform. It believes there may be upside potential if 02 were to sell its German business but does not view this as imminent enough to compensate for the increasing competitive risks the company faces.
3i Group 3 3.2 arrowdown.gif -6.7% Hold Bridgewell upgrades stock to "overweight", believing its upside potential is ideal for those wary of the recent rally some "long-only" financial stocks have experienced
Vodafone 1.95 1.97 arrowdown.gif -1.0% Outperform WLBP says "outperform" ahead of results with a 140p target price. CSFB thinks the shares could rise to 130p if the euro holds against the pound. Oddo thinks earnings will be "decent" but Cazenove thinks Germany is a "notable risk" to ARPU levels.

fenthuckpb - 28 May 2003 08:17 - 60 of 95

Thanks for the info, best thread on the board at the moment. IMO.

Insider trader - 28 May 2003 18:21 - 61 of 95

UPDATE:

I have added the London Stock Exchange and a Pivot calculator to the header, feel free to access the links. For those who are not familier with Pivots:

PIVOT POINTS: Are calculated from the High (H), low (L) and close (C) of the previous day.
Unless significant market news has been made available between yesterday's close and today's opening you can expect prices to test the near term support and resistance and the pivot price.

Should, for any reason, these near term support and resistance areas fail then the second such area will likely be tested. If these support or resistance areas fail, because of market influencing news or observations, the off floor or, more particularly, intermediate term positional players will likely enter the market and make the market trend.

FORMULA:

Pivot point = P = (H + L + C)/3

1st resistance = R1 = 2P - L

2nd resistance = R2 = (P -S1) + R1

1st support = S1 = 2P - H

2nd support = S2 = P - (R1- S1)

I always use the Pivot point, Supports 1/2 and Resistance 1/2 on the stocks I trade as a guide to where the stock will move in the day. You need to use other indicators as well for example Bollingers bands combined with RSI, for oversold/overbought levels, eg, if the top BBand is hit, but the RSI is low, chances are the stock will keep on rising, etc.
When you use the Pivot calculator, input the information what it wants, eg, the stocks High (of the day) low (of the day) and what it closed at, then press 'calculate', then you will have the R2, R1, P, S1, and S2 of the next trading day.

Insider trader - 28 May 2003 18:29 - 62 of 95

This table indicates how broker recommendations for key FTSE companies have changed in the last 24 hours. It details how great the rating change has been and reasons for this change. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=Buy, 2=Outperform, 3=Hold, 4=Underperform and 5=Sell.
  27th May 28th May Change Consensus Rating Broker Change
BT Group 2.59 2.65 arrowdown.gif -2.3% Hold SG Securities downgrades to "hold" from buy given the lack of short-term catalysts for the stock. Until interims are released in November, the broker sees no spur for share price gains.
British Airways 2.67 2.73 arrowdown.gif -2.2% Hold Smith Barney believes a Virgin Atlantic/BA tie-in is unlikely given regulatory and ego issues. Broker still thinks BAY is the best long-term flag carrier in the sector and retains its 170p target price.
GUS 2.35 2.26 arrowup.gif 3.8% Outperform Teather & Greenwood is pleased at the price GUS fetched for its home shopping business and marginally ups forecasts, although, with results imminent, further alterations are likely.
Kingfisher 2.47 2.5 arrowdown.gif -1.2% Outperform Exane restated its "outperform" rating ahead of results, believing the group is on track to spin-off its electricals division and create a pure play company.
Prudential 2.68 2.76 arrowdown.gif -3.0% Hold DKW downgrade to "reduce" from Add following the departure of Mark Tucker, CEO of Prudential Asia. Asia contributes 31% of sales and 50% of new business profits and DKW doesn't like the uncertainty.
Royal & Sun Alliance 3.17 2.96 arrowup.gif 6.6% Hold HSBC dramatically raises its rating to "add" from reduce believing there to be a significant improvement in underwriting and capital adequacy
Tomkins 2.76 2.71 arrowup.gif 1.8% Hold Lehman Bros follows the trend set by others last week and upgrades to "Equal weight".
Vodafone 1.97 1.92 arrowup.gif 2.5% Outperform Positive results and fiery rhetoric from Sir Christopher Ghent do the trick for Deutsche. It upgrades to "buy"
Xstrata 2.05 2.17 arrowdown.gif -5.9% Outperform Morgan Stanley downgrades "equal weight" due to the recent rise in coal prices an the strong performance of the A$ and the Rand
MM02 2.59 2.48 arrowup.gif 4.2% Outperform SG Securities upgrades to "buy" from hold, believing the downside risk is now limited and there is speculative upside on the disposal of German operations. The target price is 77p.

midknight - 28 May 2003 20:49 - 63 of 95

Good stuff, IT. Keep it going!

Andy - 28 May 2003 21:40 - 64 of 95

Agreed, some quality information there.

This thread is a real asset to this BB, well done!

Andy.

Insider trader - 29 May 2003 17:26 - 65 of 95

Thanks guys, I hope it helps with your trading. I am helping to Beta test AM live charting at the moment, and what I see so far is very good! ========================================================================== This table indicates how broker recommendations for key FTSE companies have changed in the last 24 hours. It details how great the rating change has been and reasons for this change. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=Buy, 2=Outperform, 3=Hold, 4=Underperform and 5=Sell.
  28th May 29th May Change Consensus Rating Broker Change
Barclays 2.42 2.52 arrowdown.gif -4.1% Hold HSBC restates its "sell" rating following its quarterly Q&A session with CFO John Varley. Outlook remains difficult, retail division is struggling to grow and there will be a further pressure on margins.
British Airways 2.73 2.82 arrowdown.gif -3.3% Hold Merrill upgraded its bonds to neutral encouraged by the impact cost cutting is having on the bottom line. This has yet to impact the valuation metrics as other brokers retain cautious stances.
EMAP 2.78 2.72 arrowup.gif 2.2% Hold Numis upgrades to add, encouraged by the full-year results.
GUS 2.35 2.26 arrowdown.gif 3.8% Outperform Positive broker reaction to both the results and the divestment of the home shopping business prompts Seymour Pierce, among others, to restate its Buy rating.
ICI 2.47 2.53 arrowdown.gif -2.4% Hold CSFB downgrades to underperform and lowers target price to 100p from 110p. It is dismayed by new management's apparent commitment to the old strategy and believes the discount, relative to ICI's peer group, should be reinstated.
Kingfisher 2.47 2.5 arrowdown.gif -1.2% Outperform Exane restated its "outperform" rating ahead of results, believing the group is on track to spin-off its electricals division and create a pure play company.
Lloyds TSB 2.73 2.73 0.0% Hold ABN Amro ups the target price to 525p and Goldman restates its outperform rating following the recent share price slide and signs of a turnaround in the business
Pearson 2.8 2.76 arrowup.gif 1.4% Hold Investec upgrades Pearson to a "buy" believing that its share price has lagged a rising media sector leaving it looking relatively attractive
Rentokil Initial 2.53 2.58 arrowdown.gif -2.0% Hold UBS Warburg downgrades to neutral bearing in mind the group's lower underlying growth and its cautious stance on the medium term outlook.
Vodafone 1.97 1.92 2.5% Outperform Positive results and fiery rhetoric from Sir Christopher Ghent do the trick for Deutsche. It upgrades to "buy"

Insider trader - 02 Jun 2003 07:54 - 66 of 95

The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.
UK, US and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo. AnlEPSRevenue
27-May Cewe Color D Q1 1.67 Outperform 3 2.69 450
27-May D. Logistics D Q1 3.25 Hold 5 0.05 339
27-May DEAG Deutsche Entertainment D Q1 1.00 Buy 1 0.13 122
27-May Hannover Rkversicherung D AGM/Q1 2.35 Outperform 24 3.11
27-May Indus D FY 2.00 Outperform 2 3.26
27-May Microlog Logistics D Q1 2.33 Outperform 3 1.70 357
27-May MLP D Q1 3.59 Underperform 18 0.39
27-May RM GB H1 3.17 Hold 6 6.20 197
27-May Sixt D FY 3.00 Hold 2 0.58 2,130
27-May Telekom Austria AU Q1 2.42 Outperform 12 0.20 3,957
27-May TUI D Q1 3.83 Underperform 19 0.66 20,383
27-May Umweltkontor D Q1 3.50 Hold/Underperform 6 0.27 264
27-May Vodafone Group GB FY 1.95 Outperform 37 6.39 30,321
Wednesday
28-May Analytik Jena D Interims 3.00 Hold 2 0.05 80
28-May British Land GB FY 2.17 Outperform 12 21.87
28-May Costco Wholesale Corp US Q3 2.52 Hold 25 1.57 42,087
28-May De La Rue GB FY 3.25 Hold 4 17.78 548
28-May Emap GB FY 2.76 Hold 18 48.20 962
28-May Euromicron D Q1 2.00 Outperform 1 1.07 138
28-May Gauss Interprise D Q1 4.00 Underperform 1 -0.34 30
28-May Girindus D Q1 3.00 Hold 2 -0.47 31
28-May GUS GB FY 2.41 Outperform 23 46.35 7,069
28-May ICAP GB FY 1.20 Buy 5 76.50
28-May Krispy Kreme Donuts US Q1 2.14 Outperform 7
28-May LPKF Laser & Electronics D Q1 2.80 Hold 5 0.19 26
28-May Nexus D Q1 4.00 Underperform 1 36
28-May Northern Foods GB FY 3.20 Hold 15 13.90 1,405
28-May Peacock Group GB FY 2.18 Outperform 11 14.70 399
28-May Premier Farnell GB Q1 2.33 Outperform 6 11.39 768
28-May Shanks Group GB FY 2.56 Hold 9 10.60 544
28-May Szucker D FY 1.80 Outperform 10 1.48 4,406
Thursday
29-May Big Food Group GB FY 3.06 Hold 16 2.14 5,180
29-May BTG GB FY 2.75 Hold 4 -32.53 33
29-May Chloride Group GB FY 2.86 Hold 7 1.86 141
29-May Daily Mail & General Trust GB H1 2.80 Hold 11 33.00 2,011
29-May Electrocomponents GB FY 2.78 Hold 9 16.28 739
29-May Invensys GB FY 3.28 Hold 21 2.52 4,835
29-May Lonmin GB H1 2.82 Hold 18 53.94 466
29-May Pennon Group GB FY 2.77 Hold 13 47.00 408
29-May PETsMART Inc US Q1 1.8 Outperform 5
29-May Pilkington GB FY 2.69 Hold 16 6.14 2,598
29-May Plasmon GB FY 2.00 Outperform 1 9.36 61
29-May Securicor GB H1 2.00 Outperform 12 8.89 1,382
29-May Wagon GB FY 2.33 Outperform 6 14.30 445
Friday
30-May Brain Force Software D Q1 1.00 Buy 1 0.05 61
30-May Fuller, Smith & Turner GB FY 1.80 Outperform 5 45.25 139
30-May Splendid Medien D FY 5.00 Sell 1 -3.44 36
30-May Synstar GB H1 2.00 Outperform 4 3.84 233
30-May W.E.T. Automotive Systems D Q3 1.20 Buy 5 5.50 178

Insider trader - 16 Jun 2003 07:54 - 67 of 95

The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.
UK, US and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo. AnlEPSRevenue
Monday
16.Jun Majestic Wine GB Prel. FY 1.20 Buy 5 34.00 125
Tuesay
17.Jun Amadeus AG D FY 1.00 Buy 1 0.25 59
17.Jun Chattem Inc US H1 2.25 Outperform 4 1.15 244
17.Jun Danisco DK FY 2.47 Outperform 16 25.70 16,885
17.Jun Norstan Inc US FY 2.00 Outperform 1 0.05 225
17.Jun Progress software US H1 2.33 Outperform 3 0.68 306
17.Jun Vermont Pure Holdings US H1 1.50 Buy/Outperform 2 0.17 75
Wednesday
18.Jun Babcock International GB AGM 2.60 Hold 5 8.62 397
18.Jun Bear Stearns Companies Inc US H1 2.55 Hold 11 6.55 5,351
18.Jun Bouygues F Q1 2.56 Hold 18 1.37 21,502
18.Jun Halma GB Prel. FY 3.00 Hold 5 8.60 271
18.Jun Hennes & Mauritz S H1 2.13 Outperform 26 8.08 52,101
18.Jun iSoft Group GB FY 2.33 Outperform 9 13.45 90
18.Jun Worthington Industries US FY 2.43 Outperform 7 0.94 2,205
Thursday
19.Jun AEA Technology GB FY 1.00 Buy 2 -12.10 260
19.Jun Carlo Gavazzi CH FY 6.00 N/A 1 -4.85 204
19.Jun KB Home US H1 2.80 Hold 10 8.05 5,608
19.Jun Lehman Brothers US H1 2.50 Outperform/Hold 16 4.39 6,715
19.Jun McCormick & Co US H1 2.46 Outperform 13 1.45 2,479
19.Jun Morgan Stanley US H1 2.83 Hold 18 3.13 20,363
19.Jun Saba Software US FY 2.67 Hold 3 -0.88 44
19.Jun Tibco Software US H1 2.64 Hold 11 0.06 260
Friday
20.Jun Cardiodynamics Intl Corp US H1 2.50 Outperform/Hold 2 0.06 31
20.Jun Tektronix Inc US FY 2.77 Hold 13 0.50 793

little woman - 16 Jun 2003 09:18 - 68 of 95

Thanks Insider trader

Insider trader - 23 Jun 2003 07:52 - 69 of 95

The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.
UK, US and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo. AnlEPSRevenue
Tuesday
24.Jun FedEx Corporation US FY 2.33 Outperform 18 2.71 22,409
24.Jun Goldshield GB Prel. FY 3.00 Hold 2 37.79 108
24.Jun Omnova Solutins US H1 2.00 Outperform 2 -0.09 694
24.Jun Palm Inc US FY 2.90 Hold 10 -2.92 834
24.Jun Paychex Inc US FY 2.83 Hold 24 0.78 1,101
24.Jun Verity Inc US FY 2.50 Outperform 6 0.38 104
24.Jun Workspace GB FY 1.86 Outperform 7 55.45
Wednesday
25.Jun 3Com Corporation US FY 3.11 Hold 9 -0.18 1,012
25.Jun General Mills US FY 2.06 Outperform 17 2.63 10,423
25.Jun Goldman Sachs Group US H1 2.47 Outperform 15 4.74 15,120
25.Jun Hornbach Holding DE FY 3.00 Hold 3 2.12 1,705
25.Jun Stagecoach GB Prel. FY 2.85 Hold 13 6.00 2,080
25.Jun Stratos Lightwave US FY 4.00 Underperform 2 -2.92 42
25.Jun The WD-40 Company US Q3 2.00 Outperform 3 1.61 235
25.Jun Tribal GB Prel. FY 2.00 Outperform 6 17.72 101
25.Jun Xansa GB FY 3.71 Underperform 14 4.55 464
Thursday
26.Jun Berkeley Group GB Prel. FY 2.63 Hold 16 114.53 1,126
26.Jun Clruyt BE FY 2.50 Outperform/Hold 15 3.50 3,168
26.Jun Del-Monte Foods US FY 2.40 Outperform 5 0.84 3,168
26.Jun Dixons GB FY 2.72 Hold 29 11.40 5,666
26.Jun DS Smith GB Prel. FY 2.00 Outperform 6 17.41 1,483
26.Jun Gerry Weber DE FY 3.60 Underperform 5 0.62 360
26.Jun Gesco AG DE APC 1.00 Buy 1 -1.30 153
26.Jun Lawson Software US FY 2.67 Hold 3 0.01 333
26.Jun Nike Inc US FY 1.86 Outperform 14 2.78 10,573
26.Jun Reliance Security GB FY 1.50 Buy/Outperform 5 40.00 267
Friday
27.Jun Chemring GB H1 2.22 Outperform 10 29.49 122
27.Jun First Technology GB Prel. FY 2.42 Outperform 12 26.20 128
27.Jun Lone Star Steakhouse US H1 1.00 Buy 3 1.42 605
27.Jun McCormick & Co US H1 2.46 Outperform 13 1.45 2,479
27.Jun Sibir Energy GB FY 2.00 Outperform 1 -0.80 17
27.Jun Tops Estate GB Prel. FY 3.00 Hold 2 10.86

Insider trader - 09 Jul 2003 06:43 - 70 of 95

The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.
UK, US and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo. AnlEPSRevenue
Monday
30.Jun Aetna Inc US H1 2.41 Outperform 17 4.52 17,988
30.Jun Artesian Resources US H1 1.67 Outperform 3 1.84
30.Jun Berkeley Berry GB Prel. FY 3.50 Hold/Underperform 2 -5.40
30.Jun Captaris US H1 3.00 Hold 2 0.05 94
30.Jun Hartest GB Prel. FY 3.00 Hold 1 0.49
30.Jun Intertainment AG D FY 2.00 Outperform 1 -0.49 19
30.Jun Mediware Information Systems US FY 2.00 Outperform 2 0.52 33
30.Jun PC-Ware D FY 1.00 Buy 1 0.72 451
Tuesday
01.Jul Beale GB Int. 3.50 Hold/Underperform 2 8.70 101
01.Jul Carpetright GB Prel. FY 3.14 Hold 7 50.50 441
01.Jul HMV Group GB Prel. FY 2.00 Outperform 14 15.89 1,712
01.Jul Honeycombe GB Prel. FY 2.00 Outperform 2 6.14 34
01.Jul Merix Corp US FY 2.83 Hold 6 -0.86 94
01.Jul Scottish & Newcastle GB Prel. FY 2.80 Hold 27 41.20 4,616
01.Jul Stonemartin GB FY 3.00 Hold 1 -2.69 5
Wednesday
02.Jul Audiovox Corporation US H1 1.00 Buy 1 0.38 1,246
02.Jul Biomet US FY 2.35 Outperform 20 1.09 1,387
02.Jul Greene King GB Prel. FY 2.07 Outperform 14 70.00 538
02.Jul Heidelberger Druckmaschinen D FY 3.27 Hold 23 0.64 3,991
02.Jul Northgate GB FY 1.56 Outperform 9 40.93 320
02.Jul Somerfield GB FY 2.64 Hold 14 4.95 4,683
02.Jul Stolt Offshore US H1 3.00 Hold 6 -0.97 1,625
02.Jul Vega Group GB FY 2.00 Outperform 1 5.90 34
Thursday
03.Jul Heiton Group IL Prel. FY 2.33 Outperform 4 0.43 463
03.Jul Online Travel GB Prel. FY 1.00 Buy 1 1.20

Insider trader - 09 Jul 2003 06:54 - 71 of 95




The Dow has formed a nice range, with clear boundaries to trade tomorrow. We will watch 9,260 up and 9,160 down.


Short Term Dow


Short term, the Dow is sitting at the lower trend line of the channel formed in the 60 Minute Chart at 9,200. Watch for a downside break at that trend line to indicate direction at the Open.


Medium Term Dow


In the medium term, we entered the market Short today at 9,180, but were stopped out with a 10 point loss. We are now out of the market, and will watch 9,160 down and 9,260 up, with 10 point stops.


NASDAQ & S&P


The NASDAQ continued to trend higher today within its sloping channel, and the S&P formed a range within its channel. We will be watching the boundaries tomorrow. *


Summary


The Dow traded sideways today, forming a range at the highs, which has given us clear levels to trade tomorrow. We are out of the market and will be watching 9,160 down and 9,260 up for tomorrow.

little woman - 09 Jul 2003 07:38 - 72 of 95

Insider Trader - You're up early!

Insider trader - 09 Jul 2003 09:32 - 73 of 95

Yep! Hope your trading is going well.

Insider trader - 14 Jul 2003 07:41 - 74 of 95

The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=buy, 2=outperform, 3=hold, 4=Underperf. and 5=sell.
UK, US and European results this week
Result DateCompany nameCountryResultsConsensus RecNo. AnlEPSRevenue
Monday
14.Jul Pace Mirco Tech GB Prel. FY 3.00 Hold 5 -7.14 183
14.Jul Bank of America Corp US H1 2.04 Outperform 23 6.29 36,605
14.Jul BB&T Corporation US H1 3.15 Hold 20 2.85 4,854
14.Jul Citigroup US H1 2.00 Outperform 16 3.24 77,418
14.Jul SKF AB S H1 2.17 Outperform 23 20.96 41,573
Tuesday
15.Jul Agie Charmilles CH H1 3.20 Hold 6 3.70 1,021
15.Jul Dow Jones & Co US H1 3.36 Hold 11 0.87 1,526
15.Jul FleetBoston Financial Corporation US H1 2.52 Hold 21 2.38 11,427
15.Jul Gannett US H1 2.42 Outperform 19 4.53 6,665
15.Jul Intel Corporation US H1 2.35 Outperform 34 0.62 28,297
15.Jul Mellon Financial Corporation US H1 2.67 Hold 15 1.62 4,196
15.Jul New York Times US H1 2.53 Hold 15 2.03 3,263
15.Jul Seagate Technology US Q4 2.00 Outperform 10 1.36 6,473
15.Jul Sinnerschrader D Q2 4.00 Underperform 1
15.Jul Stryker Corp US H1 2.50 Outperform 22 2.16 3,500
15.Jul Suedzucker D Q1 2.60 Hold 10 1.55 4,564
15.Jul Teles D Q2 1.50 Buy 2 0.47 79
15.Jul USBancorp US H1 2.15 Outperform 26 1.98 13,053
Wednesday
16.Jul Advanced Micro Devices US H1 3.32 Hold 25 -1.50 2,786
16.Jul Bank One Corporation US H1 3.05 Hold 21 2.96 16,544
16.Jul Capital One Financial Corporation US H1 2.17 Outperform 23 4.68 10,462
16.Jul General Dynamics Corporation US H1 2.68 Hold 19 4.88 14,943
16.Jul Harley-Davidson Inc US H1 2.33 Outperform 15 2.32 4,648
16.Jul Knight-Ridder US H1 2.60 Hold 15 3.69 2,902
16.Jul Microgen GB H1 2.00 Outperform 2 3.00 25
16.Jul Micronas CH H1 2.06 Outperform 17 2.44 742
16.Jul Rhoen Klinikum D H1 2.25 Outperform 4 2.82 972
Thursday
17.Jul Altria Group US H1 1.82 Outperform 11 4.64 78,811
17.Jul Avocet Mining GB FY 2.00 Outperform 2 3.50
17.Jul Bankinter S Q2 2.76 Hold 25 1.62
17.Jul Bespak Gb Prel. FY 2.33 Outperform 5 16.10
17.Jul Coca-Cola US H1 2.11 Outperform 18 1.83 20,917
17.Jul Electrolux S H1 2.67 Hold 18 16.72 126,567
17.Jul Eniro AB S Q2 2.27 Outperform 15 3.61 5,150
17.Jul First Data Corporation US H1 1.89 Outperform 28 1.92 8,746
17.Jul Georg Fischer CH H1 2.86 Hold 7 19.18 3,285
17.Jul Microsoft US Q4 1.65 Outperform 31 1.04 31,991
17.Jul Misys GB Prel. FY 2.54 Hold 28 17.32 1,030
17.Jul Nokia FI Q2 2.40 Outperform 56 0.79 30,685
17.Jul Northern Rock GB H1 2.33 Outperform 24 63.32
17.Jul SAP D Q2 2.66 Hold 45 3.51 7,237
17.Jul Silk Industries GB Prel. FY 1.00 Buy 1 6.40
17.Jul Wachovia Corporation US H1 2.35 Outperform 20 3.10 19,030
Friday
18.Jul Abbey IR Prel. FY 1.50 Buy 3 0.88
18.Jul Keycorp US H1 3.26 Hold 19 2.14 4,567
18.Jul Mattel US H1 2.29 Outperform 14 1.28 5,005
18.Jul Tietoenator FI Q2 2.48 Outperform 27 1.17 1,399

Insider trader - 27 Aug 2003 07:58 - 75 of 95

THE WEEK AHEAD
The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Reuters Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=Buy, 2=Outperform, 3=Hold, 4=Underperform, and 5=Sell.
Company Name Country   Results   Consensus   No.Anl     EPS*  Revenue*
     Tuesday 26 August, 2003  
AWD Holding D H1    Outperf. 10 0.87 -
Bunzl UK Int.    Hold 15 30.34 2781
H&R Block US Q1    Hold 4 3.525 -
Hewlett-Packard US Q3    Outperf. 24 1.2 -
Hochtief D H1    Outperf. 8 0.79 12366
Persimmon UK Int.    Outperf. 18 78.3 1857
Reckitt Benckiser UK Int.    Outperf. 17 63.95 3714
Stada Arzneimittel D Q2    Hold 16 2.35 742
Telekom Austria AU Q2    Hold 15 0.21 3932
     Wednesday 27 August, 2003  
Aggreko UK Int.    Hold 12 10.14 325
Bodycote UK Int.    Hold 14 10.58 433
Hammerson UK Int.    Outperf. 12 30.33 -
Hannover Rkversicherung D Q2    Hold 25 2.99 -
Johnston Press UK Int.    Outperf. 11 29.6 487
Thiel Logistik D H1    Underperf. 6 -0.1 1821
WCM D Q2    Hold 4 0.06 -
Wilson Bowden UK Int.    Outperf. 15 151.2 1145
     Thursday 28 August, 2003  
AMEC UK Int.    Hold 12 26 4755
Carrefour F H1    Outperf. 36 2.63 71086
Dollar General US Q2    Hold 16 0.87
Hilton Group UK Int.    Hold 24 12.3 5769
Mchener Rkversicherung D H1    Hold 36 6.25
Nordex D Q3    Underperf. 9 -1.19 305
Rexam UK Int.    Outperf. 15 38.7 3220
Slough Estates UK Int.    Hold 9 27.9
Tomkins UK Int.    Hold 17 18.69 3201
TUI D Q2    Underperf. 25 2.93 19812
Wellington Underwriting UK Int.    Outperf. 4 10.9
Westbury UK Int.    Outperf. 11 69 892
     Friday 29 August, 2003  
BHP Billiton UK FY    Hold 22 18.6 10013
*Currencies are shown for the country represented. eg. DE=Euro, UK=GBP, US=Dollar

little woman - 27 Aug 2003 08:10 - 76 of 95

IT

- it's been a while - are you going to post more often?

Insider trader - 27 Aug 2003 08:54 - 77 of 95

I will do my best too. Good luck with the meeting tonight.

Insider trader - 31 Aug 2003 12:33 - 78 of 95

THE WEEK AHEAD
The broker ratings are overall consensus figures derived from Multex Global Estimates reports. The EPS, EBIT and revenue estimates relate to the full-year and therefore do not necessarily correlate to the reporting period indicated. The consensus recommendation gives a numerical rating where 1=Buy, 2=Outperform, 3=Hold, 4=Underperform, and 5=Sell.
Company Name Country   Results   Consensus   No.Anl     EPS*  Revenue*
     Monday 01 September, 2003  
Abbot UK H1    Outperf. 6 11.65 395
Altadis SP H1    Outperf. 22 2.05 3,401
Avis UK H1    Outperf. 6 5.89 764
British Vita UK H1    Hold 9 23.00 904
Cairn Energy UK H1    Outperf. 12 28.30 146
John Laing UK H1    Outperf. 8 4.80 225
TIM I H1    Outperf. 44 0.21 11,528
     Tuesday 02 September, 2003  
BAA UK H1    Outperf. 16 33.48 2,019
Brambles UK FY    Hold 11 11.60 3,030
Computacenter UK H1    Hold 13 21.90 2,524
L'Oreal F H1    Outperf. 28 2.39 14,415
Meggit UK H1    Outperf. 15 17.80 420
Schroders UK H1    Hold 12 16.20
Telecom Italia I H1    Outperf. 26 0.20 30,885
     Wednesday 03 September, 2003  
Associated British Ports UK H1    Hold 13 30.30 412
Gallaher UK H1    Hold 17 55.08 3,575
HJ Heinz US Q1    Hold 12 2.20
LogicaCMG UK H1    Hold 35 8.10 1,677
Seat Pagine Gialle I H1    Outperf. 8 0.04 1,481
Serco UK H1    Outperf. 17 10.30 1,525
Signet UK H1    Outperf. 8 7.64 1,655
TotalFinaElf F H1    Outperf. 32 11.05 102,047
     Thursday 04 September, 2003  
Arriva UK H1    Hold 12 32.30 1,600
Casino, Guichard-Perrachon et Compagnie F H1    Outperf. 29 4.98 23,468
Diageo UK FY    Outperf. 26 48.32 9,830
International Power UK H1    Hold 15 10.30 904
Intertek Testing Services UK H1    Outperf. 7 27.70 459
Lafarge F H1    Outperf. 22 5.30 13,440
National Semiconductor US Q1    Hold 19 0.73
Pinault-Printemps-Redoute F H1    Outperf. 28 5.85 24,672
Royal & Sun Alliance UK H1    Hold 23 24.50
Suez Lyonnaise F H1    Hold 30 1.03 42,610
Tullow Oil UK H1    Outperf. 12 6.44 139
Wilson Connolly UK H1    Hold 12 24.52 742
     Friday 05 September, 2003  
AGA Foodservice UK H1    Outperf. 10 22.00 395
Go-Ahead UK FY    Hold 12 67.20 1,077
JD Wetherspoon UK FY    Outperf. 25 17.10 711
Marshalls UK H1    Outperf. 6 20.90 347
Rank UK H1    Hold 19 21.80 1,707
RMC UK H1    Hold 17 34.75 4,741
div> *Currencies are shown for the country represented. eg. DE=Euro, UK=GBP, US=Dollar

Insider trader - 10 May 2004 17:29 - 79 of 95

- Strong jobs report tries to rally stocks but fear of rate hikes still controls for now.
- Sizzling jobs report continues string of strong economic data as expansion beats expectations
- Market still discounting interest rate hikes as large cap indexes head toward 200 day SMA.

Stocks still selling on good news in fear of rate hikes.

Friday was another example of investors betting against the economy in fear of the Fed embarking upon a rate hiking campaign. As previously discussed, that fear is not without merit given the Feds track record on the economy once it decides it needs to clamp down on money supply. Despite strong economic data, investors fear the Fed will smother the recovery and thus limit earnings growth. When that happens, stocks are suddenly overvalued as earnings drives stock prices.

Stocks tried to put on a fairly brave face. Futures were down but once again rallied on the release of strong economic data with non-farm payrolls climbing another 288K, well ahead of expectations. They fought off a low open and turned positive. They held that gain most of the session before sellers took over ahead of the weekend and once again sold off. No relief bounce on the strong number, no short covering rally in bonds as the jobs report was rock solid.

Semiconductors showed relative strength with SOX gaining 1% though it was up over 2% on its high. Massive weakness in small and mid-cap stocks, however, seriously undercut that strength as the large cap and smaller cap indexes drove toward the March lows and the 200 day SMA. There are indications the selling is starting to get overdone, and another quick blowdown toward those levels will most likely do the trick. A look at the index chart patterns shows major weakness, but if they continue to fall hard and fear notches up further on breaches of the May low and the 200 day SMA, then there is enough to turn the market. Remember, this is a correction, not a major bottom. Sentiment indicators dont have to be at all time highs to do the trick, and they are getting there.

THE ECONOMY

Honey, now thats good job creation.

No way the economy could do better than March in creating jobs, but it did. Sure the overall number was lower (288K versus 337K revised), but it was still very strong, and when you factor out the 75K jobs in March that resulted from the end of the grocery strike, April was even stronger. 288K new jobs, the unemployment rate falling to 5.6%.

Strong in the overall number and stronger across the board. Business and professional services led the way with 123K, manufacturing up 21K (March revised up to 9K), construction +18K, retail +23K. All areas gained, and as the breakdown shows, it was not all gardening and burgers. For the past two months 625K jobs were created, the highest 2 month surge since April 2000 at the peak of the prior economic run. For the year job gains average 215K per month.

Hourly wages rose 0.3% the largest gain since last July. Interestingly, average hours worked held flat, but with jobs and wages increasing that means employers are adding workers, not more hours per worker. The productivity gains during the recession had allowed employers to run leaner and squeeze more out of existing (remaining) workers. To ramp up production further to meet demand they finally had to start adding workers. It came as we anticipated, a breakout, a bursting dam, a light switch turning on. Once businesses became confident enough, they started hiring fast.

Of course the spin doctors were out in force Friday saying it was just two good months out of thirty, the economy is still in trouble, deficits are still high, and it is just a matter of time before pigs start flying, dogs started sleeping with cats, etc. The argument that jobs took too long to recover is just wrong. Economists know that a recovery does not start until the stock market bottoms. That is the point where you start the job watch clock because the market is the best leading economic indicator. When it turns, then the economy turns. We said all along that job recovery would not start until late 2003 based on this indicator. It started a bit earlier than that, and now is really running. It also still amazes (amuses?) me how a question about job creation can be answered by a discussion about how we should not be in Iraq. Or there is the half-hearted acknowledgment of the gain but complaints that there is still a long way to go. That is like saying you are not back in a bull market until the old high has been hit. Love being in an election year with only 6 short, short months left.

Wholesale inventories rise but still low.

March stock on hand rose 0.6% (0.5% expected), but sales jumped 2.7%, the largest gain since August 1994. February inventories remained at a 1.2% gain but sales were revised higher to 2.1%. That took the stock to sales ratio to another record low at 1.13 months from 1.16 in February. This is one reason the Q1 GDP number did not jump as much as anticipated, but it does mean that manufacturing activity will have to increase.

It needs to increase for a number of reasons. One is the old supply and demand. This recovery got off on the wrong foot because the first tax cut package relied too heavily on so-called rebates to US citizens. Rebates are historically proved ineffective, but Bush was not going to get his first tax cut passed without including this giveaway in the package. Thus a billions of dollars in potential stimulus was squandered, pumping up demand a bit but doing nothing to help supply. That is lingering even today as we see in the inventories data. That is THE critical inflation problem, i.e., where supply is not increased to meet demand. In any recovery you need to make sure the supply side is given a lot of incentive to invest and produce even before demand is stimulated. That means credits, higher expensing, accelerated depreciation, and capital gains cuts. Those did not emerge until the last round of tax cuts, and while they really helped jumpstart the supply side, we see that side of the economy is still running behind as business have yet to make big commitments to plants and inventory building. Thus it is imperative that we dont eliminate incentives for business to keep investing; business still needs to increase production and output to meet demand or we really do face inflation problems.

We avoided inflation in the 1980s and 1990s because of the massive investment in technology that started with tax credits shot supply higher, and it was able to meet any demand that came along. We get into trouble when supply is handicapped or ignored while demand is pushed. The Fed can raise interest rates and get them up to nominal rate levels, but it also needs to keep close eye on the money supply and not let it dry up. Too little money and it does not matter where rates are.

Another major reason inventories need to rise more is supply interruption. Lean inventories work great when everything is perfect. They allow more cash flow, better profits, and the ability to expand because everything is not tied up in inventories. Perfection is hard to maintain. We live in a world of terror strikes. A supply interruption of any extent causes delays and price spikes. Another inflationary problem. We are seeing it in the price of oil and gasoline already. Jus the fear of the problem has helped drive prices higher.

Economic future.

The market continues to struggle with economic growth versus the Fed clamping down on that growth. The future still looks good for job creation, but that is not the real key. Employment is a lagging indicator, so the fact that it is rising is good, but it does not provide insight into the markets future. That comes from the probabilities of rising earnings, and those come from expanding sales.

Looking at the other economic indicators such as leading indicators, business investment, consumption, ECRI, and many more future looking economic indicators, the economic future looks solid. Growth projections have underestimated actual growth all along just as they underestimated the slowdown all the way down. Economists are just as bad as any other profession in clinging to the most recent trends and failing to see new trends.

We see this as a broad-based expansion that is continuing to build strength. There is talk of fading earnings in Q3 and Q4 based on difficult comparisons. Yes comparisons will be harder, but if the economic expansion continues they will beat them an continue to grow at a healthy pace. The fear remains the Fed getting in the way of that growth. The market still has to shed the last worries about valuation vis-vis any Fed rate hike impact. Another blow lower toward the 200 day SMA on SP500 and DJ30 more and more looks as if that will be all it takes.

THE MARKET

Stocks could not hold the attempted rally yet again, closing miserably near session lows. NASDAQ gave up 40 points, SP500 broke 1100 on stronger volume, small and mid-caps plunged, leading the charge lower. NYSE decliners outpaced advancers better than 12:1.

It was not all gloomy, and some of the bad data is actually good data in the world of the market reading. NASDAQ showed relative strength all day until it the afternoon. SOX was up over 2% though it closed out the day 1% higher. Tech and chips, the leaders to the downside, performed relatively better. NYSE breadth was unmercifully bad. You have to go way back to October 1997 during the height of the Asian crisis to find such a horrid breadth reading. These readings often come with important market turns.

In 2002 the long downtrend came to an end when there were two sets of strong negative breadth on NYSE. The first was on July 22 during the first leg down at -4:1. The second was a series of high negative readings in October, the worst at -5.96:1 on October 9 just as the market bottomed. This year there was a massive negative breadth reading on April 13. Now we are seeing the second high readings as SP500 cuts toward the March low and 200 day SMA. This pair of readings coming as DJ30 and SP500 finally sell off, joining NASDAQ and SOX at these levels, suggests the bottom of the base is forming.

In addition, volume is playing into this scenario as well. We discussed NYSE versus NASDAQ last week, noting that NYSE volume was catching up to NASDAQ. That is an indication the more speculative tech sector is getting sold out. Friday NYSE volume actually eclipsed NASDAQ as DJ30 and SP500 exploded lower on rising volume, heading toward the March low and the 200 day SMA as those two indexes started to catch up with the tech selling. The CBOE put/call ratio again closed over 1.0, the fourth time in the past week. The overall put/call ratio (all regional exchanges included in the calculation) closed at 0.98; another downburst toward the 200 day SMA on SP500 and DJ30 would push that over 1.0 on the close as well.

All of these point toward a potential near bottom. They are secondary indicators and thus take a back seat to price/volume action, and there have been 6 NASDAQ and 5 SP500 distribution sessions in the last 6 weeks. In other words, the distribution has occurred as has the selling. Further, no market analysis is complete without a look at leaders. Many areas of strength were hit Friday including gaming, oil & gas, medical instruments and drugs. In short, even the defensive areas were not a safe haven. The momentum is still downside, and another hard drop looks likely but could also set the bottom. The weak rebound to start the week and the sharp rollover put a lot of pessimism back into investors as hope was squashed out again. That plays into a firmer bottom setting up, but for now it has just hinted at one with secondary indicators.

Market Sentiment

Above we noted sentiment indicators that suggest the market is hitting some extremes that are part of bottom formation. We will no doubt receive emails citing the bulls versus bears surveys that are not hitting extreme levels. It is true that some of these indicators are not hitting extremes. The VIX, for example, is nowhere near an extreme level. That does not, however, mean that the other indicators are without merit. Rarely do you get all sentiment indicators lined up together. Moreover, this is not a major market bottom trying to be put into place, but a correction after a big run in 2003. In other words, it is c consolidation in a continuing run higher. Thus the indicators such as bulls versus bears or VIX dont have to all hit extreme levels.

VIX: 18.13; +1.08
VXN: 25.5; +0.32
VXO: 19.07; +1.42

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.01; -0.25. Fourth close at 1.0 or above in the past two weeks. A series of closes over 1.0 such as this accompanied the late October 2002 bottom as well as other bottoms.

NASDAQ

Spent most of the day in positive territory, but could not make it through the 10 day EMA, tapping that point on the high. It sold off and gave up 40 points to close at the low.

Stats: -19.78 points (-1.02%) to close at 1917.96
Volume: 1.648B (-7.07%). Volume backed off on the reversal and selling. There was no heavy dumping of stock just as there was no dumping Thursday when NASDAQ sold off and rallied back over the 200 day SMA on rising volume. NASDAQ really appears to be sold out here at it nears the March lows once more. Accumulation in the NASDAQ consolidation is still solid at 4 to 2.

Up Volume: 599M (+133M)
Down Volume: 1.037B (-245M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.83 to 1. Strong downside breadth once more, but nowhere near the league of NYSE.
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.46 to 1

New Highs: 30 (+1)
New Lows: 98 (+22)

Rallied most of the session until reality set in and it broke lower, closing below the Thursday intraday low when NASDAQ bottomed and rebounded on some stronger volume. The 10 day EMA (1957) on the high but that did not last. It put up a fight and only got sloppy late. It slid below the April low (1919) and is heading toward the March low (1896). A slip below that would provide a good scare, and with the other indicators in the market, a potential point to bottom.

SOX continued its relative outperformance, but it too gave back much of its gain. It hit the 18 day EMA on the high (465) and gave up 7 points on the close. It is the first index to undercut the 200 day SMA and the March low, and it is trying to be the first index to recover. Classic double bottom with the slight undercut of the March leg down. Of course, it now has to make that strong volume move higher. There is nibbling ongoing in the chip stocks; that will have to turn into serious buying.

S&P 500/NYSE

Undercut near support on volume, moving toward the March low and the rising 200 day SMA. It is finally breaking down in this consolidation, something it needed to do.

Stats: -15.29 points (-1.37%) to close at 1098.7
NYSE Volume: 1.649B (+9.55%). Strong, rising volume as SP500 undercut near support. The distribution of late has taken its toll.

Up Volume: 182M (-115M)
Down Volume: 1.454B (+252M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 12.29 to 1. Massive downside breadth rarely seen in the market. This pairs with the April -6.7:1 reading in April and this extreme suggests the selling is getting extreme. Even the Thursday breadth was excessively negative.
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.28 to 1

New Highs: 27 (-1)
New Lows: 713 (+402). An explosion in new lows as SP600 and SP400 broke below the March lows. This is another signal of some extremes popping up.


Broke through the weekly up trendline from the early 2003 lows and broke 1106 as well. Still holding in a support range at 1096, but looks ready to try the March low (1087 intraday, 1091 closing) and possibly the 200 day SMA (1076). Heavy negative breadth, breaking near support, surging new lows. It is finally making the break lower it needed, and it looks to be doing it on the right kind of negative numbers.

DJ30

Sliced through 10,250 with ease, selling on rising, above average volume. As with SP500, DJ30 is starting to make a drop toward the March low (10,007 intraday, 10,048 closing) and the 200 day SMA (10,001) for the second leg of this drop. Given the relative strength in SOX and NASDAQ, the breadth readings, the new low readings, and the put/call ratio, we believe a test and slight undercut of the 200 day may be all DJ30 and SP500 need to be ready for a reversal.

Stats: -123.92 points (-1.21%) to close at 10117.34
Volume: 228 million Friday versus 202 million Thursday.


THIS WEEK

The speculation about rate hikes will continue this week as some important economic reports hit the wire. The PPI (Producers Price Index) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) give some insight, albeit from the governments rather tortured perspective, as to prices facing businesses and consumers. The trend shows gradual re-inflation in the governments basket of goods though as we have noted before, healthcare and education costs are inflating at a much faster pace. It will be interesting to see how much of a bite higher oil prices are taking.

Two things appear to be hampering the markets ability to find a bottom in this correction. First, speculation about how much damage the Fed will do when it starts hiking rates. Stocks have been discounting this ever since the March jobs and retail sales reports hit the street. As of yet they have not found the level that fully discounts the first rates hikes and their impact on the economy. It is more than that, however. As we have noted, nominal interest rates are much higher than 1%, and the Fed could raise rates 100 basis points and be basically neutral with short term rates. Thus a 50 basis point hike that is currently factored in by the August FOMC meeting (that means two 25 basis point hikes, one in June and one in August) will not stall out growth. Again, the market is concerned the Fed is going to go overboard in hiking rates as the Fed often does, and it is getting to a comfort level between stock prices and any negative economic results due to the Fed raising rates too high too fast.

The second issue involves Iraq and the struggle to reach the point of turnover to the Iraqis. The continued violence from outside fighters and more recently native Iraqis makes the goal of achieving a democratic Iraq even more difficult and open ended, and that is weighing on the market. Japan and Germany were occupied for years after WWII before their totalitarian roots were gone, and to hand over control in just over 1 year after 40 years of dictatorship is ambitious. The turnover issue has to be resolved with some certainty.

Right now the sentiment indicators are getting to some extremes and the patterns are setting up similar to early 2003. There is the added concern of the Feds interest rate campaign, something not present in 2003, but the market is selling and discounting that part of the equation. We believe that once the market is convinced the Iraq handover will occur as planned the market can start to move higher. As with the last Gulf war, it is not the actual date of the move but when the market is convinced it will happen.

The question then remains as to how much the market will move on a break higher. Summer is coming and that typically means lethargic stock moves on light volume. Summer rallies occur, but sustained moves are hard to hold during this period. 2003 was more of an aberration because the market was coming off a nasty 3 year decline. Thus if stocks to reverse and break higher, the upside may be limited after an early summer rally in the move.

We were very interested in the action on NASDAQ and SOX Friday as they were showing some relative strength after being the first indexes to sell off. They were unable to break through resistance, but they were showing some life along with the sentiment extremes. It may take SP500 and DJ30 selling closer to their 200 day SMA to get a turn, but the high sentiment readings along with the sold out performance of NASDAQ and SOX make the chance of a turn much more likely. Again, however, the price/volume action, the nuts and bolts of the market, have not shown indications of a turn and until we see a strong upside session and a solid follow through we are going to take it easy with new positions, requiring very solid moves through solid entry points.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1917.96
- Resistance: The 200 day MA (1939). The 10 day EMA (1958). The April closing low at 1978. 1990 to 2000, the top of the late 2003 base. The simple 50 day MA (1994) and 50 day EMA (1995). 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
- Support: Mixed tops and bottoms at 1900. The March low (1896). 1850 below that.

S&P 500: Closed at 1098.70
- Resistance: 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1110, the weekly up trendline from the early 2003 lows. 1118 is the April closing low and the 10 day EMA (1117). 1125 stalled the last bounce attempt. The exponential 50 day MA (1125) and the simple 50 day MA (1127). The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
- Support: 1096 to 1100, then the March low (1087). 1075 to 1070 from the December consolidation. The 200 day SMA (1076).

Dow: Closed at 10,117.34
- Resistance: 10,250. The 10 day EMA (10,284). The exponential 50 day MA (10,362) and simple 50 day MA (10,362). 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
- Support: 10,000. The 200 day SMA (10,001). 9900-9850.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the Economy section.

5-12-04
- Trade balance, March (8:30): -42.6B expected, -$42.1B February.
- Treasury budget, April (2:00): $46.8B expected, $51.1B March.

5-13-04
- PPI, April (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.5% March.
- Core PPI: 0.2% expected, 0.2% March
- Initial jobless claims (8:30): 325K expected, 315K prior.
- Retail sales, April (8:30): 0.1% expected, 1.8% March.
- Retail sales ex-auto (8:30): -0.2% expected, 1.7% March.

5-14-04
- Business inventories, March (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.7% February.
- CPI, April (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.5% March.
- Core CPI (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% March.
- Industrial production, April (9:15): 0.5% expected, -0.2% March.
- Capacity utilization, April (9:15): 76.7% expected, 76.5% March.
- Michigan sentiment, preliminary (9:45): 96.5 expected, 94.2 prior.

Insider trader - 24 May 2004 08:20 - 80 of 95

- Expiration a sleeper as market continues lateral, low volume move.
- Oil falls as Saudi promises more production.
- Expiration is over, but same problems still present.
Market leaves town quietly after Wednesday reversal.

Wednesday foretold something potentially worse for expiration Friday, but it never materialized. The market started positive on some soothing words about oil production from Saudi Arabia, and an attempt to sell it off midday was met with some modest buying that kept the market positive on the close. Modest gains, modest breadth, modest volume, but given expiration Friday and that Wednesday reversal, it was a decent way to close the week as the hedge funds and traders closed the market flat given the OPEC weekend meeting and the large at the money options positions.

The indexes went nowhere during the session, failing again at near resistance but also holding over near support. The indexes have more or less moved laterally the past two weeks despite high volume upside and downside reversals that typically indicate a swing in the action coming in the direction of the reversal. They ended up canceling each other out in the near term, however, as investors continue to factor in near term issues. As we have discussed, there are few overriding problems confronting the market such as the Iraq handover and associated anticipated increase in violence, oil prices, Fed rate hikes and inflation (maybe some politics as well) that are keeping a lid on the upside. The positive outlook for the economy is keeping stocks from falling as well. Thus the lateral move the past two weeks.

THE ECONOMY

Fed says it stands ready to fight inflation.

Thursday's report discussed how the Fed was walking a tightrope yet again (that always seems to happen when you try to regulate markets) now that oil prices are spiking just as the Fed must raise rates from an extremely low level. It also has the supply deficit to deal with and inflation that can result because supply has yet to match demand. As we have noted before, and though Greenspan denies it, monetary policy alone cannot solve economic problems. You can flood an economy with money, but if no business has reason to borrow or spend (such as after a nasty business slump as in 2000 and beyond) all it does is put more money in the system with the same amount of goods. That is the classic, textbook scenario for inflation. Greenspan kept telling Congress that no tax cuts were needed, that tax cuts would be too late to do any good, and that the Fed had it all under control. Rate cut after rate cut, however, failed to produce any economic spark. Then the tax cuts were passed and, gee whiz, they actually jumpstarted supply. The Fed came back and admitted they actual were timely and had the desire effect, something the major media, unlike the Fed, never had the sand to admit after blasting the tax cuts as an untimely waste (as if the 50% of government spending is not an absolute squandering of our tax dollars; they seem to believe that a huge, bureaucratic, centralized government is better at allocating resources than the people making the buying and selling decisions on the frontline of the economy).

After many comments that jobs were the most important element in the economy, the Fed realized it was losing even more credibility with the financial markets. As discussed Thursday, employment is the most lagging indicator, and the Fed's focus on that to the exclusion of strong price growth is driving using the rearview mirror. We do not advocate Fed rate hiking campaigns simply because they often cause the very recession or bust the Fed was trying to avoid (i.e., the Fed fears the economy heats up too much and supposedly then crashes of its own weight) and because they come after the Fed intervened in the first place. Let markets alone and they will function the most efficiently. Regulate them and you create the imbalances that then require a very imperfect Fed to try and rebalance. The result is often swings that would not have occurred, and those that would have occurred are exacerbated, not mitigated as the Fed likes to tell us. Hell, the Fed takes credit for somehow saving the world economy from something worse in 2000. Frankly, we never bought into the argument that too much prosperity is a bad thing.

Indeed, the market has tried to balance things on its own once the Fed said it was going to start raising rates. Indeed, the market has done exactly what the Fed should do but typically refuses to acknowledge would work: take rates up immediately to the level it thinks they need to be in order to accomplish the goal. The market pushed rates right up to where it thinks neutral is. Just two weeks back one Fed governor responded to a question why didn't the Fed do that, and the answer was the usual, go slow, be prudent, respond to events. Sounds good, but the history of rate hiking shows that does not work. The Fed goes slow and ultimately gets frustrated because nothing happens. It never does; it always happens all at once when the cumulative hikes suddenly slam the economy. It talks a good game, but it cannot live up to the task.

Set the target, take it there all at once or in smaller steps, and give the market some certainty. Bernacke came close Friday when he responded with actual calculations that set the target rate at 3.7% to 4.7%. The Fed won't raise rates to that level anytime soon, yet the fact those figures were thrown out there tells the market, finally, that the Fed has some targets and it is not playing the "I'm thinking of a number between 0 and 20" game that requires the market to guess. It is also interesting in that it shows us that the Fed is also looking beyond Greenspan; more and more Fed governors are somewhat breaking ranks and not spouting the company line or typical Fed dogma under Greenspan. Again, Greenspan takes the nomination but then retires sometime after the election.

Saudi Promises more production.

Though it says supply is not the issued, Saudi Arabia Friday was pushing for a 2 million barrel per day increase in production ahead of the weekend OPEC meeting. Not only is Saudi Arabia pushing for the increase, it is already openly stated it would overproduce its 7.3 million bbl/day quota, saying it has allocated orders for 9 million barrels from its customers for June, and if more was needed, it was going to provide it. So much for production limits. Indeed, OPEC is already producing 2.8 million bbl/day over its production limit as prices have still risen.

Prices continue to rise, so there are obviously other issues other than just supply. The biggest is the perception of supply problems. Saudi has a capacity to produce 10.3 mbd, so there is still excess capacity. The problems include one we discussed last week, i.e., the potential for supply disruption given the geopolitical turmoil that could result in attacks on production facilities in the Middle East. If the terrorists cannot get to the US from within, do it without at the lifeblood of commerce. Even if Saudi et al have good intentions, if the terrorists are successful, intentions don't matter. Bin Laden has said he would topple Saudi if it did not bow to his version of Islam, and disrupting supply is a way to do it.

There is also pressure on the refined product side. Gasoline is in low supply so prices are up. The Bush administration gets the blame for this because somehow that 'oilman from Texas' is letting his friends gouge the consumer. Oil and gas is very cyclical. Visions of $50/bbl to $100/bbl oil in the late 1970's turned into $9/bbl in short order. It has always been boom or bust based on economic and cartel actions, and right now it is again a combination of both pushing prices higher. Oil companies made less because demand was less until very recently when the economy and world economy started to recover. You don't build extra capacity when there is recession just as Cisco didn't go out and build new production factories when it had piles of product in warehouses.

Of course, energy companies are more than willing to let prices rise to make the easy money. There are things that could be done to increase supply, but they are short term as refining capacity is a problem now with several old plants unable to maintain their rates of production. Energy companies may try to get some legislation to make it less expensive for them to build new capacity. Given that the market has price product at high rates, that should not be used as a solution. The incentive is there. Other than new plants, the regulations regarding the special gasoline blends could be eliminated short term. There are multiple formulations required in over a dozen regions in the US. One of the problems is that the old refineries cannot just switch out day to day to produce runs of these different fuels. Thus there is an imposed bottleneck on the system. We have to decide if we want some lower prices in the short term in trade for some more ozone short term. The EPA said no, but the administration could sign an executive order otherwise.

The problems are exaggerated by tons of money speculating prices will run higher. As the US buys for the SPR every day and OPEC claiming (until now) it was unable to impact price in the current market, speculators could bet against these market factors and continue to drive prices higher. Some decisive action on the gasoline (i.e., US regulation issues) side and OPEC saying it will produce whatever is necessary would help break this sequence that is ratcheting oil higher. Friday oil fell below $40/bbl on the Saudi comments. Indeed, Saudi says it wants and indeed sees oil at $23/bbl. If the US would take some action to help break this easy speculation game in the short term that would start breaking down the spiral and help prices adjust to where actual demand places them as opposed to speculative fear and greed.

Again, we said last week we thought oil prices were ready to peak even before Saudi came out with its thoughts. The oil charts were showing the peak even as speculation on the financial stations ratcheted higher. It is not a done deal yet, but it is starting to show the cracks that stall out a rally.

THE MARKET

Expiration came and went quietly other than that violent reshuffling late Wednesday. Monday brings a new expiration and that reshuffling to close May is over. Historically the Monday following expiration goes the opposite direction, but that has not been the case recently. With the big Wednesday reversal that was in preparation for expiration, however, it keeps us alert for potential selling on Monday.

As for the technical position, the indexes closed out the week in decent position given the high volume up and down reversals that have punctuated otherwise low volume drift. Friday saw NASDAQ close over the 10 day EMA and the March lows as it managed a recovery from the Monday gap lower and then held up very well after the Wednesday reversal. As usual SP500 held over the 200 day SMA and QQQ has yet to break below its March lows. Despite the violent swings the indexes held their ground, albeit at the lowest possible levels without necessarily giving way to a breakdown.

That still leaves them in precarious position heading into this week with the same near term downtrends and fighting with the short term moving averages as well as the same problems that have provided sufficient uncertainty to prevent the indexes from making a positive bounce from their potential double bottom patterns. The lateral move is a sign of strength the market did not look like it had. The issue now, and as it has been for the past two weeks, is whether the lateral move is the best the market can muster before another move lower or if it finally is comfortable with the near term uncertainties and can build off of this 13% NASDAQ, 7.5% SP500, and 9% SP600 correction. If the majority of the indexes can move one way or the other with respect to their 200 day SMA, the trend will be clear. Of course, that is just a restatement of the overall issue.

Market Sentiment

Last week saw bulls contract while bears expanded, though at 43.6% and 26.7%, neither are on the verge of providing a powerful crossover signal. Sentiment continues to erode and downside hedging and speculating continues to build, both good contrary indications for the market, i.e., indications the market is getting to a point it could make a rebound. As noted before, however, sentiment indicators are not accurate timing indicators. A dog can be pretty unhappy for a long time before it decides to run off, and market sentiment indicators are no more accurate as to time.

VIX: 18.49; -0.18
VXN: 24.9; -0.64
VXO: 19.16; -0.2

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.12; -0.09. Another close over 1.12, making that the ninth in the past three weeks. The overall put/call level, however, while showing an incredible rise in the moving average, has not closed below 1.0 yet. When it makes a close over 1.0, a bottom or at least a near term rally starts to come together.

NASDAQ

Managed to move back over the 10 day EMA on the close, continuing the low volume attempt to hold near the March lows and form a double bottom.

Stats: +15.5 points (+0.82%) to close at 1912.09
Volume: 1.379B (-10.67%). Another session of low, below average volume in the three week range below the 200 day SMA. Unlike SP500, volume even on the reversal sessions (up and down) has been low. There is a definite lack of current interest for technology as money piles up on the sidelines. Low volume consolidations, however, are not necessarily bad.

Up Volume: 994M (+358M)
Down Volume: 329M (-556M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.77 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.33 to 1

New Highs: 36 (+7)
New Lows: 78 (-23)

Tapped some support at 1900 on the low and managed to close over the 10 day EMA (1911) for the first time this month. Hardly a market turning event, but something it has been unable to do as it looked to be readying for more of a downtrend below the 10 and 18 day EMA. As it is it closed over the March low (1896.91) as it still is in the game for a double bottom base. Right now the pattern is negative but not overwhelmingly; if it was it would have rolled over after that Wednesday reversal.

The large cap techs as measured by the NDX and QQQ have yet to give up the March lows. There is a theory that investors will turn to large caps during this stage of the market for any further uptrend, and there is some historical support for this notion. We have noted that the market has failed to move without the small and middle caps since early 2003, but there is always the case that a transition is in progress right now. As the NASDAQ 100 is the largest cap NASDAQ stocks and it has been holding up similarly to the large cap SP500, there could be more credence to this idea. We will let the market show us which stocks to move into, small cap, large cap, or both. What is important right now is that the large caps are helping to hold back the tide right now, but the market has not said yet it is ready to make that move back up.

S&P 500/NYSE

Another session close below the 10 day EMA after trying a break higher, but managed a gain on some rising volume. Not great, but definitely not bad.

Stats: +4.37 points (+0.4%) to close at 1093.56
NYSE Volume: 1.256B (+4.02%). Volume edged higher Friday. Higher volume is not unusual for expiration Friday, but volume has been extremely low overall and the volume was still well below average Friday. Unlike NASDAQ, volume has spiked above average on the reversal sessions, up and down, showing much more participation in the large caps.

Up Volume: 840M (+311M)
Down Volume: 402M (-267M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.01 to 1. Very solid trade, but NYSE A/D is never up without participation from the smaller caps as well.
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.4 to 1

New Highs: 24 (+13)
New Lows: 29 (-22)

Continued to walk sideways. SP500 has enjoyed a very narrow closing range the past two weeks despite the wild intraday swings. That shows us a lot of hedge funds and speculators are helping market makers and specialists keep the prices in a range, but it also shows a pretty decent, low volume fight between buyers and sellers over the key 200 day SMA (1082). The lateral move is much more pronounced in SP500 than in the other indexes as it compresses over the 200 day and below the 18 day EMA (1101). The action in this index remains positive on the whole with a normal correction and consolidation of a strong run, holding above key support. Despite all of the problems with the Wednesday reversal that looked quite ominous, SP500 still looks to be putting together a rebound from this key level.

DJ30

Has stemmed the slide and is now moving laterally below 10,000 and the 200 day SMA (10,042). It too showed that reversal action Wednesday, but shrugged it off by the Friday close. Volume was up Friday as DJ30 closed higher but gave back 70 points from the high that tapped at the 200 day. It remains below the March lows at 10,007 and key resistance at the 200 day. This maintains its near term downtrend below the 10 and 18 day EMA (10,008, 10,086), but as noted, it is trying to convert into a lateral move. The downside still has the upper hand at this stage, however; it has to prove that it is ready to resume the move higher as it struggles below a lot of key resistance.

Stats: +29.1 points (+0.29%) to close at 9966.74
Volume: 180 million Friday versus 155 million Thursday.

THIS WEEK

Expiration is gone but the same near term influences remain. They are closer to resolution with OPEC members individually or OPEC as a whole ready to take action to calm nerves with respect to supply. Refining and speculation are other issues that the US will have to step up to address, but the impact of the Saudi position is already starting to be felt. The Iraq issue is more one of time; the market has to get comfortable with the actual handover, and that was not helped by another car bomb that targeted members of the current interim ruling body and new FBI warnings regarding threats against railways in the U.S.

As for inflation, the Fed is trying a new tactic, saying it will defend against inflation as it tries to calm the speculation in the financial markets. That is, however, even more frightening to us because it always seems to be a chemotherapy way of curing the ills: the economy just got on its feet and now we are going to get rid of what ails it by almost killing it and then letting it revive. The Fed cannot address the problem that exists: supply does not equal demand that easy money has created. Supply needs more incentives to meet demand other than enjoying jacking up prices in response to tighter demand. Suppliers have not been able to do that for years, and much as with employment, they are putting off ramping up supply until absolutely necessary, causing problems with demand. The cure is not to crush demand (and that is what happens because the Fed has to quell consumer spending, and that only happens when jobs are again at risk) but to coax more supply to meet demand. You want an expanding economy as that creates jobs and wealth; you do not want to artificially tamp it out just as it has had a bit of recovery.

That is bigger picture. Near term we remain cautious as to how the market will respond to the Wednesday reversal ahead of expiration. Expiration went out like a mouse, but Wednesday indicated some serious downside positioning occurring, and now that expiration is over we will see if that is still in command. The market remains at the crossroads, the large caps trying to transition to the upside while holding over key support (SP500 and QQQ) but NASDAQ and DJ30 still in near term downtrends. We continue to see some excellent patterns set up both upside and downside. Some were moving Friday, others still holding solid patterns, ready to make the move. As many, even more, are struggling, with many rolling back over after failed tests of earlier breakdowns below support. That points out the mixed character of the market, and we are ready to take advantage of these stocks while the market decides direction and then move toward the primary trend when it makes that decision.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1912.09
- Resistance: The MA in a near term downtrend are always a resistance level. 18 day EMA (1928); 200 day MA (1949). The April closing low at 1978. 1990 to 2000, the top of the late 2003 base. The simple 50 day MA (1972) and 50 day EMA (1966). 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
- Support: 1900 acted as support Friday as NASDAQ tapped at that level on the low and held. 1890, the gap up high at on Tuesday. The April lows (1880, 1878) trying to hold. 1850 below that. Some price tops at 1777, 1750.

S&P 500: Closed at 1093.56
- Resistance: The 10 day EMA (1095). 1096 to 1100. The 18 day EMA (1102). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. The exponential 50 day MA (1114) and the simple 50 day MA (1117). 1125 stalled the last bounce attempt. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
- Support: The 200 day SMA (1082). April lows (1079, 1076). 1075 to 1070 from the December consolidation. 1058 - 1060 from November tops.

Dow: Closed at 9966.74
- Resistance: The 10 day EMA (10,008). The 200 day SMA (10,042). The 18 day EMA (10,087) and 10,250. The exponential 50 day MA (10,235) and simple 50 day MA (10,257). 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
- Support: 9900-9850. 9650; 9585.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

5-25-04
- Consumer confidence, May (10:00): 94.0 expected, 92.9 April.
- Existing home sales, April (10:00): 6.48M expected, 6.48M March.

5-26-04
- Durable goods orders, April (8:30): -0.8% expected, 5% March.
- New homes sales, April, (10:00): 1.2M expected, 1.228M March.

5-27-04
- GDP, Q1 second revision (8:30): 4.5% expected, 4.2% prior.
- GDP chain deflator (8:30): 2.5% expected, 2.5% prior.
- Initial jobless claims (8:30): 334K expected, 345K prior.

5-28-04
- Personal income, April (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.4% March.
- Personal spending, April (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% March.
- Michigan revised sentiment, May (9:45): 94.6 expected, 94.2 prior.
- Chicago PMI, May (10:00): 62.4 expected, 63.9 April.

ajren - 25 May 2004 17:19 - 81 of 95

Outstanding Thread.I never saw it b4
rgds aj

Insider trader - 28 May 2004 20:43 - 82 of 95

Thanks a lot, I will be updating it more often.

toussaint500 - 28 May 2004 21:26 - 83 of 95

I agree with ajren. Excellent. Thanks for making the effort.

ajren - 29 May 2004 12:58 - 84 of 95

Someone agrees with me.Incredible.
rgds aj

Insider trader - 02 Jun 2004 13:56 - 85 of 95

Bit late this week.....

- Flat lining into the weekend.
- Manufacturing is on fire.
- Market avoids selloff, posts a modestly constructive session to cap a positive week.

Market slides into weekend quietly, but action is positive.

Low volume and modest price movement overall, but the indexes closed near the highs, fighting a modest urge to sell ahead of a long weekend that faces renewed terror threats. No one really wanted to take many chances, but there were still some nice moves from some stocks sporting solid patterns. That is one thing the market has shown since the follow through on Tuesday: solid, even if few in number, breakouts.

There was some great economic news from personal income and spending, and the Chicago manufacturing index was simply blowout. Indeed, the surging manufacturing sector almost assures that jobs for May will be another very strong showing. The market mulled the news, but did not necessarily rejoice. Bonds had been rebounding, but the strong Chicago data coincided with a drop in treasuries as bond traders saw the strong construction sector simply meaning higher rates were more of a certainty.

It was a quiet session with low volume and modest breadth, but it was not a weak session. Stocks started soft but in the end overcame early selling to close near session highs. The gains and losses were modest overall, but the market fought off some attempts to sell it, and buyers were not afraid to step into some stocks that have shown good strength during the selling and that are making breakout moves. Many have denied this move has any real meaning or that it is actually a summer rally, but more stocks are breaking out. Not hoards of stocks, but a steady improvement after the follow through. Often the market will provide a follow through and then stocks will continue to form up and then provide waves of breakouts as the overall market continues to set up its pattern. Indeed, the market is trying to set up a broader double bottom pattern following the follow through to the rally that started two Tuesdays back. In other words, it is still working on building even as some early leaders start breaking out. That is how rallies typically progress. This coming week we will see if the positive shift in price/volume action turns into even stronger volume gains to show more conviction.

THE ECONOMY

Personal spending and incomes continue to show solid gains.

April spending rose 0.3% versus the 0.2% expected and 0.5% in March (0.4% originally reported. Income increased 0.6% after a 0.4% rise in March (0.5% expected), one of the few times incomes actually outpaced spending in the past six months. Incomes, despite many who argue there is no recovery, continue to expand. That does not happen without a recovery.

Inflation news was good as well as the price index contained in the spending and income report rose just 0.1% versus a 0.3% March rise. The data is mixed regarding inflation. The GDP price deflator was lower as reported Thursday, another indication that inflation is not necessarily all it is cracked up to be. What we see is not necessarily a current problem with inflation but a structural problem that can give rise to future problems, i.e., where the supply has not caught up with demand. We have discussed this in the past two weeks, and basically it is a situation where stimulus was applied to the demand side long before the supply side was pushed to expand. Indeed, the supply side until quite recently has purposefully lagged as producers have held back, still burned from the big overhand left in their laps in 2000.

Chicago PMI surges to record levels, provides some promise supply is trying to catch up.

The May Chicago regional manufacturing report surged to a 16 year high at 68.0, much better than the 62 expected. New orders hit a 20 year high at 74.4; as you recall, we have pointed out each time orders have hit 20 year highs. That is key. Even during the boom of the 1990's, the growth rates were not the supercharged levels seen now. The last time growth was this explosive was after the big supply side incentives of the early 1980's were passed in Reagan's Emergency Economic Recovery Act. The supply side incentives led us to the greatest growth ever seen during the following 20 years. Once gain we are duplicating those explosive growth rates, setting up the potential for another boom where we see low inflation coupled with strong growth based on the productivity technological gains give us.

Yet, there are still many we see on the financial stations and other news stations making bald faced assertions that there is no economic recovery. It is a case of selective recognition or denial. You can cite actual statistics about GDP growth, surging business investment, surging profits, a job market that is catching fire, growth rates in economic indicators, the already sharp decline in deficit projections and be met with statements about how the stock market has still not recovered its losses, how jobs have not been totally replaced. Ask anyone who is intellectually honest and he or she will tell you the market does not recover to those astronomical levels for years after the bust. That does not mean the market is not healthy or that the job market is not growing rapidly, it just means the boom peaks have not been hit. And, of course, if they were already hit just a few short years later, you would be right back at a top and would be ripe for another collapse. It drives you batty listening to the intellectual dishonesty being pushed to unsuspecting citizens who presume that reporters may just possibly be intellectually honest. The growth is there; it cannot be denied. You may want resources directed to foster growth in other areas, but you cannot deny there is overall growth and strong growth at that.

Strong manufacturing sector helps reduce inflationary pressures.

As one manufacturer from the Chicago region stated, manufacturing is on fire. That is good news for inflation. Everyone worries about a strong manufacturing sector indicating more inflation; treasuries sold off on the news of strong Chicago gains. Yet, manufacturing is the supply side, the part of the economy needing to catch up to demand. If it is really cranking up, that is very good news vis- -vis inflation. More supply means supply finally starts to catch up with demand. In other words there are goods to meet demand and prices don't have to be bid higher as dollars fight for a limited number of goods. In a free market, supply will meet demand. It was meeting demand back in the late 1990's and 2000, but the Fed blocked it, choked off demand when it dried up the money supply, and left producers with mountains of inventory. With supply free to meet demand, there was no problem with inflation. Indeed, the numbers showed that. The Fed, however, killed off demand and the effects of that lasted well into the demand recovery in 2002. The Fed impacted supply even after its rate hikes because it left the supply side in such a sorry shape when it killed off demand. Just now supply is starting to come to life, and we can only hope that the surge in manufacturing is a sign that it is catching up to demand.

When will the Fed raise rates?

It is getting closer to the June FOMC meeting, and the FFF contract shows 25 basis points still priced in. We have said all along that 3 strong jobs reports in close proximity would mean the Fed is ready to raise rates. Yes it is using a lagging indicator to trigger its rate hiking campaign, but that is what it has told us. The strong regional manufacturing reports and their employment sub-indexes are indicating a third consecutive strong monthly report. New non-farm payrolls in excess of 200K is what we are expecting the jobs report to show next Friday. That will be enough for the Fed to act at the late June meeting.

Unfortunately, the Fed is going to play its usual cloak and dagger games regarding how much it is going to raise rates and when. It likes to keep the market guessing despite all of the rhetoric regarding transparency and the new statements. It is going to say it will 'go slow', but that is no guarantee as we have discussed. That only means the Fed will act too long and end up doing too much, all the while keeping the market guessing as to when it will finish. That won't give the Fed the cushion it needs soon enough, and it won't give the market the certainty it needs. The market has already moved through 5 months of correction, and that could easily be enough to set the stage for the next move. The Fed, however, has only just recently made clear it will raise sooner than later. That puts additional uncertainty in the market and extends the correction. The Fed says it does not want a repeat of 1994, but it is acting as if that is what it wants. As we noted Thursday night, history lessons are never learned or at least are never applied to real life. The Fed may say it doesn't want another 1994, but it is going by the same playbook that gave us 1994. Five months into a correction and the Fed is just hinting around about rate hikes. The market hates that uncertainty, and it finds it hard to make significant gains with the Fed cloud overhead, not to mention the other near term problems. Five months can stretch into most of 2004 if the Fed is not clearer. Again, a one step move to the target level with a pre-released statement saying what it was going to do and why would be a huge shot of certainty to the market as well as give the Fed some disaster maneuvering room. Will it happen? Ha.

THE MARKET

Overall a positive week, and not just in the fact the indexes posted gains, the first time in four weeks. The week saw a follow through to the rally that started modestly two Tuesdays back. That follow through is a necessary step to set up a further move though it does not guarantee the move. Stocks continued higher after the follow through, though there was no major rush higher. As noted, there were some solid breakouts from leadership stocks as the indexes worked to form the second leg of their double bottom bases. The action may have been modest overall as stocks took a breather ahead of the Memorial Day weekend, but it held its gains and is set up well for a further move.

Despite what many say, this looks like the summer rally to us. It started early, but so does Christmas shopping season each year as well. It is not waiting for the Iraq handover, and it anticipated the break in the oil price climb higher, starting to rally just before prices per barrel peaked on the adamant Saudi statements regarding production. Even after the close Friday, more OPEC and non-OPEC producers were saying they were already ramping up production to help ease prices. They know all too well that if prices remain too high for too long western economies suffer. If that happens prices will decline anyway because demand goes down and who knows when it will resume. Far better to push prices lower now, avoid a recession, and keep demand solid. Again, that has helped kick off an early summer rally a week before it is officially summer.

While we don't think this summer move will be sustainable through year end as was the 2003 recovery tour move, we don't necessarily buy off on what Merrill Lynch and others were telling their clients Friday. Basically they were saying it was going to be a tough summer, and with stocks already at resistance they did not expect the market to make further headway but would bottom in September after a tough summer. There were several brokerages and pundits stating this point Friday. It is getting to the point of being accepted conventional wisdom. That is typically a problem for that view. We think this rally could surprise more to the upside than they are anticipating before it peaks out and makes a late summer dip into September.

That almost presupposes that the major indexes will be unable to breakout from the double bottom patterns that are forming, thus sending them back into their bases to form up once more into October for a possible break higher right ahead of the election. For now we see a decent follow through as well as some strong stocks making breakouts and bucking for leadership. If those continue to improve we could see significantly more upside to come during the current move.

It was very interesting to see SP400, the mid-cap index, in the lead Friday. While small stocks have been getting the tough love treatment on the financial stations (i.e., like them but have to leave them in favor of large caps), mid-caps may present an alternative that investors can move into and feel they are getting a better value. Not that the mid-caps did not run as did the small caps during 2003; they did. They are often overlooked in the comparisons of small and large caps. They may prove to be a happy medium for those looking to get out of small caps but who do not want to own lumbering large caps.

Market Sentiment

Despite the gains for the week, sentiment remained dampened. Bulls declined while bears rose, but not enough to turn the tide. The put/call ratio remained at high levels all week, indicating investors were still not comfortable with the move higher, using the bounce to hedge their long plays and speculate on some downside action.

VIX: 15.5; +0.22
VXN: 21.33; -0.17
VXO: 15.82; +0.29

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.05; +0.11. Another close over 1.0, the tenth in three weeks. Definitely moving to more extreme levels, and indeed it appears the market has started a meaningful bounce after those repeated closed over 1.0.

NASDAQ

Modest gain, moving laterally as it takes a breather on low volume after breaking over its 200 and 50 day EMA last week.

Stats: +2.24 points (+0.11%) to close at 1986.74
Volume: 1.246B (-24.26%). Amazingly weak volume to close out a decent week that saw some accumulation action. Nothing major, but up on rising volume and lower on declining volume. That is what you want to see.

Up Volume: 709M (-339M)
Down Volume: 512M (+16M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.09 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.2 to 1

New Highs: 56 (-22)
New Lows: 22 (-1)


After clearing the 200 and 50 day EMA (1956, 1966), NASDAQ was content to move laterally Friday, holding onto its gains on low trade. Not a bad cap to a week that saw a higher volume advance on the follow through session that sets the stage for a further rally. After a gap lower that undercut the March lows and then a gap right back up (clearer on the QQQ), this advance has commenced. That gap lower then immediate gap higher is a bullish technical indication, and thus far that appears to be the case. It is also a classic double bottom with the right leg undercutting the left, shaking out (scaring out?) the last sellers before starting the rebound. Still a lot of work to do on the 4.5 month base. A trip up to 2075 near the middle of the pattern, would be a very solid move in itself and warrant at least a rest to form a handle. From there whether it breaks out or not remains to be seen given the strength of the market at that time.

QQQ continued its advance toward the hump in its double bottom (37.50). It never violated its March low and thus is considered technically in better condition for sustained upside movement.

S&P 500/NYSE

Nowhere session on very low volume, but after retaking the 50 day EMA that is not a bad day. Rest is good.

Stats: -0.60 points (-0.1%) to close at 1120.68
NYSE Volume: 1.17B (-19.21%). Major volume drop off as the large caps took a breather after a solid move off the 200 day SMA and up to the 50 day EMA. Good volume action given the index was taking a breather.

Up Volume: 629M (-408M)
Down Volume: 519M (+134M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.37 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.26 to 1

New Highs: 65 (-15)
New Lows: 15 (-3)


Held the Thursday break over the 50 day SMA (1117) as volume remained low and it still needed a breather after the strong Tuesday and Thursday moves. Showing much better price/volume action (up on rising sessions, down on falling sessions) as it provided a follow through move this past week. It is sitting just below near resistance at 1125, tapping at that level on the highs the past two sessions. It may walk laterally for another session or two before it resumes, but we expect volume to start improving this week. It needs to for it to break and hold a move over 1125.

DJ30

Could not break over the 50 day EMA (10,214) or the higher simple 50 day MA (10,246) as the blue chips never got on track Friday after some big point gains last week. It has set up similarly to the other indexes, but it has yet to successfully take out the 50 day MA after it was able to recapture the 200 day SMA (10, 064) Tuesday. Still think it is following as opposed to leading.

Stats: -16.75 points (-0.16%) to close at 10188.45
Volume: 159 million Friday versus 187 million Thursday.


THIS WEEK

Last week the market set up a further upside move with its follow through to the rally that started the prior Tuesday (5-18-04). Volume was decent, but notably lower given the pre-holiday week. What most are looking for this week is whether volume picks up, and if so, does it work in the same direction as last week, i.e., does accumulation take place.

There are some major economic reports to be released such as the ISM (national manufacturing), ISM services, productivity, factory orders, and the May employment report. The latter will be the focus as investors try to get a handle on when the Fed will raise rates. 215K are expected as of now, but we think it could easily top that given what the regional manufacturing reports are showing. If the ISM employment sub-index is strong, you can expect that expectations will be ratcheted higher.

The return from Memorial Day officially marks the start of summer for the market, and in normal summers that typically means slower trade. After a rally all of 2003, we expect this to be more normal: early summer rally that peaks out sometime before July earnings, then a waffling remainder of the summer where stocks struggle and slide into September and October. Typically stocks find a bottom in September and start a meaningful move in October. With the election in November and the Fed starting to raise rates, that is even more likely this year.

Again, we think the summer rally has already started, anticipating the softening in oil prices this past week when it bounced off the lows two weeks back. We think the market will be hard pressed to breakout over the April highs, but that depends upon the strength. If things improve in Iraq, if there is no major insurgency or terrorist attack there, we could see the handover factor get priced in as well. All of this would help the follow through continue to build, and we would expect to see more breakouts flowing as it does.

That is where we will be looking with respect to plays: the stocks that set up good patterns and then are part of the waves of breakouts. We will see how big the waves are or if they are ripples. Again, we are not expecting a watershed rally, so we will set our targets but be realistic and take what the market gives on the moves. If they run out of gas early, we will protect what we have made.

Reports are coming in regarding an attack in Saudi Arabia relating to oil facilities. 10 people are reported killed including one American. One British citizen was dragged behind a car. Hostages have been taken and there is now a standoff as Saudi troops have surrounded what are said to be Al Qaeda terrorists. We have written about our concern of attacks on Middle Eastern oil facilities, and it is not too hard to draw a connection between Saudi's statements about increasing oil output. It is a tenuous situation. The attack does not appear to have hampered any production, but we expect to see some nervous response in oil prices this week, and in the recent past that has put pressure on the equity market.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1986.74
- Resistance: 1990 to 2000, the top of the late 2003 base. 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
- Support: The simple 50 day MA (1972) and 50 day EMA (1966). The 200 day SMA (1956). 1900 to 1890. The April lows (1880, 1878). 1850 below that. Some price tops at 1777, 1750.

S&P 500: Closed at 1120.68
- Resistance: 1125 stalled the last bounce attempt. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
- Support: The exponential 50 day MA (1114), and the simple 50 day MA (1117). The 18 day EMA (1107). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100. The 200 day SMA (1085). April lows (1079, 1076). 1075 to 1070 from the December consolidation. 1058 - 1060 from November tops.

Dow: Closed at 10,188.45
- Resistance: The 50 day EMA (10,214). The simple 50 day MA (10,247) and price resistance at 10,250. 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
- Support: The 18 day EMA (10,104). The 200 day SMA (10,064). March low (10,007). 9900-9850.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

6-01-04
- Construction spending, April (10:00): 0.4% expected, 1.5% March.
- ISM Index, May (10:00): 61.5 expected, 62.4 April.

6-03-04
- Productivity, rev. Q1 (8:30): 3.7% expected, 3.5% prior.
- Initial jobless claims (8:30): 337K expected, 344K prior.
- Factory orders, April (10:00): -1.0% expected, 4.3% March.
- ISM Services, May (10:00): 66.0 expected, 68.4 April.

6-04-04
- Non-farm payrolls, May (8:30): 215K expected, 288K April.
- Unemployment rate, May (8:30): 5.6% expected, 5.6% April.
- Hourly earnings (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% April.
- Average workweek (8:30): 33.8 expected, 33.7 April.

Insider trader - 07 Jun 2004 05:54 - 86 of 95

- Stocks rush higher on jobs report but cannot break resistance on lack of volume.
- Close to 1 million jobs in 3 months but leading indicators softening.
- SP500 fails to hold break over 1125 as summertime market still has reservations about Iraq, oil, and the Fed.

Jobs report spurs nice gains, but market unable to hold the important moves.

Three excellent months of job creation helped propel stocks higher from the open. A month ago strong jobs data raked the market over the coals as remembrances of a Fed brandishing rate hikes over the markets head while it pressed its boot on the markets neck reemerged. We felt that the market may have gotten over that worry, and watched to see if the jobs report could be the catalyst to break the indexes out of their range. Early on stocks were trying to do just that. SP500 managed to crack over resistance mid-session after running up to that resistance early and moving sideways. That had the look of a solid move: smacking into resistance, stalling, then blasting higher.

Problem is, volume was not as energetic as price. It was wimpy, mid-summer slack trade, and without conviction, the move over 1125 could not hold to the close. After a nice break higher midday the bids faded and stocks slipped. The downside momentum continued to the close with NASDAQ undercutting its opening price gap. Solid gains turned into just decent gains on the close as the indexes failed in a breakout opportunity. The market was willing but not ready to make the breakout move. That means the market still has to deal with Iraq, oil, the Fed, the election, and now, summer.

There are competing histories here. Election years often see a pretty decent summer. There can be a pause early and then a rally late summer and on into the election. The other summer pattern is an early summer rally that fades half way into the July earnings season. The market struggles into September where it then makes bottom that segues into an October to year end rally.

In 2003 this routine was disrupted as the market came off of a serious 3 year decline. The early 2003 consolidation after the bounce off the October 2002 lows set up the summer rally, and after 3 years, there was a lot of money ready to go to work. After that early 2003 consolidation, a massive breakout ensued that carried stocks right through the summer with just a pause after the July earnings season.

This year the market is digesting the 2003 rally that preceded the economic recovery. It has other factors to consider this year that come with an economy that has moved past recovery, e.g., Fed rate hikes, higher earnings comparisons, possible changes in economic policy with the election, and of course, renewed fears regarding terrorism as it has been over two years since 9-11. If it were a matter of just digesting gains, one could argue the current 4.5 month consolidation was enough. It is still working on the consolidation, but thus far it has not found the catalyst to break it out. The employment data, a rather obvious milepost, could not do it. Most likely the move will come rather unexpectedly once the market comes to grips with all of the near term impediments.

Thus we anticipate a further break higher to keep the summer rally moving higher. We do not expect it to continue to run through the summer. Indeed, the financial programs Saturday morning were abuzz with talk of a big summer run based on the strong economic data, tech spending being back, John Chambers swagger; you know, the good old days. This all sounds way too rosy and explains the bulls/bears diverging once again. The market can squeeze more out of this current rally based on a decent consolidation in the first half of the year, but if optimism continues to run higher and higher, that is the governor on the very move the pundits are touting.

Compare last year during the December 2002 to April 2003 consolidation. At that time pessimism was very high as most felt the market had only provided a bear market bounce off the October 2002 low. We saw a nice, low volume consolidation with solid price/volume action and great accumulation. Economically sensitive stocks such as TSCO were setting up nice accumulation bases. The combination of pessimism and good stock and index accumulation made us very positive for a good breakout. Now we have a so-so consolidation, a modest follow through, mediocre price/volume action, and important leadership stocks such as semiconductors struggling. Overlay the support seen in the pundits and the picture is not nearly as bullish. It is not bearish, but it is not as strong as the start of 2003. That makes since given the big run in 2003. Things are reverting more to normal patterns.

THE ECONOMY

Jobs power toward the million mark.

Wednesday we opined that job creation the past three months could approach 1 million, and with the 248K created in May (225K expected) along with upward revisions to March (353K from 337K) and April (346K from 288K), job creation in the most recent 3 months hit 947K. Gains were across the board as two-thirds of the sectors added jobs. Manufacturing added another 32K, making 91K hires since January, one of the strongest stretches of manufacturing hiring in years. Three quarters of the jobs created pay wages at or greater than median income levels. Employment search services noted that the $75K to $150K salary level jobs showed a tremendous amount of activity. They also noted a very steady trend by companies to invest in people and technology. All of this added up to the best 3 month period of job growth since March to May 2000, the strongest stretch of the boom, occurring ironically just as the economy rolled over.

Actually, there is not that much irony involved. Jobs are the most lagging indicator in the economy. Employers hang onto employees long after the downward slide starts and they wait well after the rebound is underway to add workers. In May the average factory workweek was higher (41.1 hrs), overtime rose (4.7 hrs, the highest since 7-2000), and wages were up 0.3% for the second straight month (now at a 4% annual growth rate, quite high). All of these are the indicia of an expanding jobs market. They are not, however, confirmation that the economy will continue to grow. They show the economy has grown to a level necessary for companies to hire in order to keep up with the demand and competition. They do not forecast how much further the run is. Thus even as jobs surged in early 2000 we were looking at leading indicators that were telling us the economy was starting to nose over.

Is the economy surging or slowing?

Before anyone starts emailing their friends, I am not saying that the economy is folding over as it started in early 2000. That occurred after a long expansion and a not so subtle rate hiking spree by the Fed intended to stop the stock market and the runaway consumer. Of course, to stop the stop market and the consumer it had to mortally wound the economy. The stock market would go first, then the consumer. It did just that, and of course, the Fed could not stop the house of cards it helped build from falling. It all came down as we are all well aware.

Right now the economy is just hitting stride after that nasty downturn. Monetary policy is still extremely accommodative even if the bond market has tanked and thus pushed interest rates higher. The Fed has yet to hike rates, and Greenspan practically stated last week that he would not raise rates more than a quarter point in the first hike. That should come in June with the next move in August. Greenspan said this was not going to be like 1994. No kidding. We almost passed out. Other than the admission in 2001 that the Fed did not really know whether the wealth effect really impacted consumer spending to any degree (the Fed even asked for evidence from any interested source), this is the closest the Fed has come to admitting it has screwed the pooch in the past. Greenspan seems so intent on not killing the recovery that he is ready to err the opposite way.

This is part of his legacy building in the twilight of his career. The economy has turned back up and Greenspan wants to make sure it is still moving well when he retires after the election. A couple of minor hikes along the way shows just how strong the economy is, yet it wont put the crimp on the growth. No complaints; the Fed is staying behind the economy as opposed to trying to manipulate it closely.

Leading indicators, high energy costs suggest economic slowing ahead

Greenspan has to be somewhat concerned. Energy prices spiked just as the economy became self-sustaining as some put it, i.e., when the economy no longer needs monetary stimulus to keep it going. Energy prices are a real problem for the Fed. Higher prices historically mean economic slowing. They also simply mean higher prices that can (emphasis can) lead to inflation. During the last few energy bumps higher, however, prices were not passed along. Not in 1984, not in 1994, not in 1999. The Fed, however, views them as inflationary. Thus the dilemma: one element that by rising can both slow the economy and yet give the impression of inflation in the economy.

Problem is, energy prices are not something that the respond to the Feds arsenal, at least not directly. The Fed can jack up interest rates enough to slow the economy and thus lower energy prices to an extent even if they are cartel controlled. While that may be the Feds goal or at least in line with its goals in some instances, with the economy just now recovering that is not what it wants this time. So the Fed is not going to raise rates in response to rising energy prices. It is willing to risk that they wont cross over into prices again this time around as it goes slow with the rate hikes.

Thus Greenspan is playing to growth as opposed to inflation, basically what he has said he is going to do. He cannot really do anything about energy prices anyway, so he is going to adopt a Paul Newman truism and only worry about things he can control (or at least thinks he can control). If energy prices dont back off below 35 fairly soon, however, they will have a negative impact on the consumer and the supply side as well. Not necessarily price inflation, just less disposable income for consumers and more costs for businesses. Less consumption by consumers, higher costs cutting into corporate earnings; that is the scenario higher energy costs set up if they remain strong for several months.

ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) has a good track record with its leading indicators. They look 10 months ahead at an economic peak, 3 months ahead at an economic trough. They were rising ahead of the economic upturn then peaked in July 2003. They moved basically sideways through March, but then started to slide. In April they undercut the July 2003 to March 2004 lateral range and have slide each week since. Rallied ahead of the economic rally, kept moving up as the economy started to run, then peaked 11 months ago. The break lower did not start until recently, so any downturn is still quite a way down the road. It can still turn back up over the next month or two and change the track.

Again, this is not enough to predict an economic decline, but sustained higher energy prices historically cause economic slowdowns. It is also true that the US economy gets more GDP per barrel of oil than it used to, so it has some cushion against higher prices. That makes the timing of the drop in prices important. If oil prices continue to fade toward 35 or less as OPEC suggested they would, that will help. If gas prices back off in August and do not remain high into early fall, that will also help avoid a slowdown. The economy has momentum now as can be seen in the fact that consumer spending is still solid even with gas prices averaging over $2/gallon: with more people working and making more money (higher wages), that is helping offset higher energy prices. Again, this is something to keep watching as we move forward.

THE MARKET

The jobs report generated excitement among those in the market. Unfortunately there were not that many involved. SP500 made the break over 1125 midday, but without volume it could not hold the move. There was not major rollover, no breakdown from the range, just the inability to hold a breakout over resistance on what should be some good news. Strong job creation reported Friday, lower oil prices, strong ISM. Not enough to trigger a breakout. Whether the continuing issues in Iraq, lingering concerns regarding rate hikes, uncertain political climate, or a combination of these and other factors, the market was not ready to make a move Friday when the door was left wide open.

Market Sentiment

Mixed indications again. After improving, bulls and bears started to diverge again, not quite getting where they should have been. Bulls finished the week at 45.1% after dipping to 42.6% last week. Bears fell to 24.5% after coming close to 30%. It was getting there, but optimism crept back in.

The put/call ratio continues to run high, closing once more over 1.0, indicating more puts than calls being purchased. The market is generally optimistic; rarely are more puts than calls traded. Yet, over the past month the CBOE put/call ratio has closed over 1.0 over 10 times. There continues to be heavy hedging and speculation that stocks will fall. This is historically a contrary indicator: when most bet on one direction, particularly the atypical direction, that is a signal of extreme sentiment. Extremes typically lead to reactions in the other direction.

VIX: 16.78; -0.25
VXN: 23.84; -0.09
VXO: 16.51; -0.78

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.02; -0.11

NASDAQ

Gapped back over the 50 day SMA, took a swipe at 2000, then gave much of the move back as it could not attract any volume.

Stats: +18.36 points (+0.94%) to close at 1978.62
Volume: 1.426B (-7.03%). Volume faded even further below average. Yes it is the first Friday of the official summer, but we expected a bit more volume given the sustained good economic news.

Up Volume: 1.082B (+738M)
Down Volume: 324M (-846M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.95 to 1. Breadth was solid all day as stocks rose on the news. Just no volume to back it up.
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.54 to 1

New Highs: 55 (+3)
New Lows: 23 (-11)


After the Thursday thud lower, the Intel update and good jobs news reversed the poor action. NASDAQ gapped over the 50 day SMA (1977) then ran up to 1995.50, within spitting distance of next resistance at 2000. It gave back 17 points on the close, however, as its modest pullback from 2000 turned into a dump in the last half hour when NASDAQ shed 12 of those 17 points. It managed to hold the 50 day SMA on the close and thus the recent range, but that was small consolation. It starts the week basically from square one, back to working on the lateral move, trying to find a catalyst and the buyers to send it higher.

QQQ showed similar action, gapping higher, rallying, then giving back just about all of the move. Held the range on the close but a pretty weak showing given the good Intel and jobs news. As with NASDAQ, it starts the week anew, trying to find reason to breakout from this double bottom with handle pattern.

S&P 500/NYSE

Made the breakout over 1125 but could not hold it, maintaining the lateral move, forming the handle to the base. Lost the breakout battle but held the overall pattern.

Stats: +5.86 points (+0.52%) to close at 1122.5
NYSE Volume: 1.115B (-9.32%). Ambitious attempt at a breakout given the lack of volume. A veritable trickle of trade. Once it started to slide back from 1125, with this light volume it did not take much to give back 7 points, over half the move for the session.

Up Volume: 833M (+593M)
Down Volume: 276M (-709M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.95 to 1. Mediocre finish after posting well over 2:1 much of the session.
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.71 to 1

New Highs: 61 (+11)
New Lows: 16 (-1)

After a lot of movement Friday, the large caps ended the week still in the lateral move over the 50 day EMA (1115). Volume remained very much below average. Now it was disappointing that SP500 could not make the breakout over 1125 stick, but it also was just another session of low volume, lateral movement in the handle to its double bottom with handle base. Yes it did not hang onto the gains, but there was no reversal, just further work on the pattern and showing the type of price/volume action you want to see. The jobs report did not break it out, but it did not break it down either. The index continues to build the pattern, and as long as it does that, the closer it gets to resolution of the other issues standing in the way.

DJ30

Got really exciting for a moment as the blue chips topped 10,300, clearing resistance at 10,250. That lasted as long as it did on the other indexes before the afternoon slide. It gave back 57 points from that high, closing once more below the 50 day SMA (10,257) as well as some price resistance at 10,250. It too continues to work laterally after the bounce up off the May low near 9900. It is mimicking the SP500 though not the best pattern. It continues to follow along.

Stats: +46.91 points (+0.46%) to close at 10242.82
Volume: 161 million shares Friday versus 162 million shares Thursday.

THIS WEEK

The market starts over again Monday, still in the pattern that it tried Friday, albeit somewhat weakly, to break from. The good jobs report could not break it out but it also did not result in a sell off as it did last month. Instead, further pattern building as the market tries to resolve another group of issues involving Iraq, the Fed, oil prices, and elections. The pattern is still one that is working toward a near term resolution. SP500 has formed a decent double bottom with handle, QQQ as well. Accumulation weeks versus distribution weeks have evened out. The pattern holds, but the market is going to have to deliver once more as it did with the follow through session after rallying off the May low.

The PPI (producers price index) will be the economic data that receives the most attention as inflation worries are one of the dominant market themes. Economics near term, however, do not appear to be a driving force. The market seems to have become comfortable with growth as evident in that it did not sell off on strong jobs news Friday as it did last month for the April report. Instead of a specific news item setting off the market, it will more than likely come unannounced as investors are finally comfortable with the progress in Iraq (much better than reported via the popular news media) and energy prices. Again, the pattern is set up and stocks need to provide a break higher within the next week or so.

I still believe the market is in a summer rally and is working on setting the stage for the next move. The moves are fitful and sporadic much like the volume. Such is a summer rally. We are looking for a further breakout, but not with a ton of volume. As initial targets for the rally we are looking at the April highs (2075 NASDAQ, 1150 SP500). After that move the market will be heading into the July earnings season, and we see that as the peak of the summer move before a pullback into late July on into September.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1978.62
- Resistance: 1990 to 2000, the top of the late 2003 base. 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
- Support: The 50 day SMA (1977) and the 50 day EMA (1968). The 200 day SMA (1961). 1900 to 1890. The April lows (1880, 1878). 1850 below that. Some price tops at 1777, 1750.

S&P 500: Closed at 1122.50
- Resistance: 1125 stalled the last bounce attempt. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
- Support: The 50 day SMA (1118) is trying to hold. The 50 day EMA (1115) held Friday. The 18 day EMA (1112). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100. The 200 day SMA (1087). April lows (1079, 1076). 1075 to 1070 from the December consolidation. 1058 - 1060 from November tops.

Dow: Closed at 10,242.82
- Resistance: price resistance at 10,250. The 50 day SMA (10,257). 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
- Support: The 18 day EMA (10,148). The 200 day SMA (10,081). March low (10,007). 9900-9850.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations.

6-07-04
- Consumer credit, April (3:00): $5.5B expected, $5.7B March.

6-09-04
- Wholesale inventories, April (10:00): 0.5% expected, 0.6% March.

6-10-04
- Initial jobless claims (8:30): 335K expected, 339K prior.
- Treasury budget, May (2:00): -$67.5B expected, -$88.9B April.

6-11-04
- Trade balance, April (8:30): -$44.9B expected, -$46.0B March.
- PPI, May (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.7% April.
- Core PPI (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% April.
- Michigan sentiment, preliminary for June (9:45): 91.5 Expected, 90.2 May.

ajren - 07 Jun 2004 09:46 - 87 of 95

Congratulations again Insider trading.Another outstanding,high quality post.
I believe we need to improve the standard of our posts and aspire to be the
Number 1 Investors board on the net
rgds aj

angi - 07 Jun 2004 15:36 - 88 of 95

Excelent post Insider Trader, I look forward to reading more from you.
Regards Angi

Insider trader - 14 Jun 2004 07:36 - 89 of 95

Thanks I'm glad you enjoy reading it..


-Modest gains and low volume again mark the end of a shortened week.
- Import prices driven higher by oil, while treasuries experience subtle shifts.
- Indexes poised to continue summer rally as they recover from Wednesday higher volume selling.
Volatile open, close provide bookends to quiet session.

The market showed spunk, coming right back after some stronger volume selling Wednesday. Futures were higher, stocks opened higher, and they never really caved in. They also did not break out, but with the Friday closing in honor of President Reagan, the volume was light as many were reluctant to commit ahead of another 3 day break.

That light volume did not keep the action subdued. Stocks were quite volatile early as NASDAQ and SP500 jousted with near resistance at 2000 and 1135, respectively. They made two early tests of that level in the first hour, each time bouncing lower. The second failure sent NASDAQ plunging to session lows, peeling off 12 points from the early high. Stocks rebounded right back again, but then settled into a 4 hour lateral move right at the mid-levels of the session. So, would the market rally or sell, take the bullish or bearish route? It took the former, reverting to its recent bend toward bullish action with the exception of the Wednesday sell off.

The late move pushed NASDAQ back up to 2000 and SP500 back up to its down trendline. No volume to clear the levels, but after failing at them earlier in the session, the move made it look as if they had no problem with the level. We noted very wobbly action in leadership stocks. In the end many recovered decently, but many were all over the map and more than a few gave up near support. Overall the indexes held their ground and the Monday break higher, but there was some internal strife. Such is the way of summer, low volume rallies.

Semiconductor sales expected to surge.

The Semiconductor Industry Association raised its 2004 growth expectations to 28.6% from 19% originally forecast. That would put sales at $214B, a record that surpassed the $204B in 2000. Consumer electronics are the main driver of the gains as chips find their way into just about everything we use. I am not all too sure that some people I know dont have microprocessors inside them. Cellular phones, digital cameras, digital video recorders, and WiFi are major growth areas driving demand.

So you would think that would have the chip makers and analysts excited. That would be wrong. We have seen more enthusiasm at dental exams. Some analysts said higher chip demand meant the need to build more capacity and that would ultimately lead to overcapacity, lower prices, and a return to gloom in the industry. Well, yes, that could happen. If you make more money you can move into a higher tax bracket as well. Problems of the rich, problems of the successful. Talk about searching hard for the tarnished lining in an otherwise good story. The news did not help chips even with NSM announcing a strong quarter. It squeaked out a 19 cent gain, having to fight back to avoid closing negative. It simply was not the day for any stellar moves.

THE ECONOMY

Import prices rise on the back of 10% gain on oil.

Import prices rose 1.6%, double the 0.8% expected. That marks the eighth straight gain and brought on more talk of inflation. With oil jumping 10.3% after declining 0.4% in April, it was not hard to see where the increase came from. Take out oil and you have a 0.4% import price gain after a 0.2% rise in April. Industrial supplies excluding oil were still strong, however, posting a 2.1% gain as lumber, iron and steel, and natural gas rose.

For the past 12 months petroleum imports grew 43.9%. Overall import prices rose 7%. The divergence is stark. This of course brings us back to the inflation issue. Rising oil prices are considered by the Fed and others to be inflationary. First, we suggest that rising prices have more impact dampening economic growth than they do spurring inflation. As we have noted on several occasions, even if they were inflationary, raising interest rates is just about the poorest method there is of combating rising oil prices. Better to have a growing economy that has to deal with higher energy prices than a stagnant economy slowed by rate hikes that still has to deal with higher oil prices (remember 1974?).

Second, the rate of gain of oil prices versus other commodities in high demand (cement, lumber) is out of proportion. Lest we forget, OPEC started this rise in prices when it started talking about curtailing production because its internal projections showed a falling price per barrel in the second half of 2004. That started prices jumping early in the year, and then other problems, those unexpected events that always pop up when you monkey with market forces, started popping up. Iraq unrest. Attacks on Saudi oil compounds. Nigerian strikes. Before this is was the Venezuelan strikes in 2003 that raised prices. That terror premium on top of the OPEC created initial price rises that started the spiral higher are what has oil prices so high, not the demand. Again, oil prices are out of proportion with other commodities in short supply. It is starting to back off but there is much to be unwound, and there is the terror premium with respect to potential attacks on the actual production facilities or on the transportation modes (pipelines, tankers). That will push prices higher in times of worry, diminish in times of relative calm.

Treasury spreads narrow some as yield curve begins to flatten.

The bond market is always worth watching because it is one of the best forecasters for the economy overall and thus the stock market. Over the past few weeks the yield curve has flattened between the short term and longer term treasuries. The spread between the 2 year and 5 year treasury is narrowing, another measure of the yield curves slope. In an economy that is expanding on into the future the yield curve is normal, i.e., the short term treasury yields are lower than the longer term yields. That is what the yield curve is now.

Compare that with the yield curve back in 2000 where the short term yields were higher than the longer term, i.e., an inverted yield curve. The stock market had cratered in March and April, and the bond curve inverted that summer. That signals bad times ahead: long term rates are lower because the future economic activity is considered weak. If it were positive as in a normal curve, longer term yields would be higher because money would be more in demand in the future and yields would have to factor that into the present value.

Recently the yield curve between the 2 and 5 year treasuries is flattening out a bit. The spread is narrowing. They are not at critical levels as the yield curve is still healthy. After a dramatic improvement in the yield curve as the economy recovered and expanded, this weakening in the curve and spreads is another element worth watching much as the ECRI weekly indicator we discussed last weekend.

Why is this important? It paid to watch the signs of economic slowing in late 1999 and early 2000 that was being overlooked by the mainstream. Up through the market crash it was believed the economy was heating still. Despite the market plunge and the inverted yield curve it took a long time to let go of the idea that the economy was not expanding. We saw the signs of the slowdown and predicted the market meltdown. Right now we are simply being observant as to the true leading indicators, not the jobs report that everyone continues to hang on. These indicators are suggesting economic slowing in the future. They are not pointing to another recession, but with the higher energy prices, they are weakening some. That is consistent. Nine of the ten last recessions have come on the heels of a sustained spike in oil prices. Prices are dropping right now. They need to get down close to $30 and rather quickly to avoid being a real problem for the economy. As you know, we are predicting oil to fall closer to that level over the next month. Whether increased terror events ahead of US political conventions, the Iraq handover, and the election itself actually materialize will have an impact on those prices and thus the expectation of economic softening.

THE MARKET

Maybe investors were rattled when the government announced the postponement of the PPI. The treasury traders were blindsided, and that very well could have had a spillover effect on stocks Wednesday as well as hedges were frantically adjusted. In any event, after the higher volume selling the market woke up in a better mood and held positive most of the session. Yes volume was light, some rocky times for leaders, and no major breakthroughs, but the return to the more bullish intraday action where it rallied to the close healed some of the Wednesday selling and suggested that action was related to the reshuffling of hedges on the PPI move.

The action left the indexes poised to try another move toward the April highs. DJ30 is sitting on top of its early 2004 down trendline as is QQQ, the default leader of NASDAQ. Throw the SP600 (small caps) and SP400 (mid-caps) into that group as well. That puts them in very good position to continue the assault on the April highs.

NASDAQ and SP500 are just below their down trendlines, having given them back on Wednesday after punching through them Monday and Tuesday. They were unable to hold these levels. Both important indexes for the overall markets move and they will have to recover the trendlines this week. SP500 has been a relative leader and is still in good position. Moreover, while the market managed a bounce Thursday, a lot of leaders were struggling. They will have to come around this week to move the market along toward the April highs.

Overall the market is still in good position to try the April highs as it continues the summer rally that has a follow through under its belt on this last move off of the May low. Once at the April highs the move becomes problematical. It would be in position for a real breakout and subsequent rally. With some of the signs of slowing economic activity we continue to believe that a continued rally through the summer is unlikely. The indexes may very well make a move through the April highs but we dont think that move would be substantially above them or hold long; more of a peak to the next level and then faltering at some point around the July earnings.

This is our read on a more normal cycle this year as opposed to the 2003 run through the summer after 3 down years. It gives us more upside on this move to make some gains, and if it continues, so be it. If it falters we are going to be tight with positions and not take chances. We will still have upside opportunities even if it does falter in addition to some downside as the market fades in later summer on into September to set up a fall rebound.

Market Sentiment

VIX: 15.04; -0.35
VXN: 21.23; -1.12
VXO: 13.83; -0.93

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.15; +0.23

Rose on an up session. This indicator typically tracks opposite the market action. Given the change in the PPI date Wednesday and the long weekend there was a lot of hedging taking place once again. This is something we have seen during the past two months as the market sits on edge during the correction and is doing so even now as it moves higher to try the April highs after posting a follow through session to this rally. Still a lot of concern about the downside

NASDAQ

Tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded to close right at the high but below 2000 and the down trendline.

Stats: +9.26 points (+0.47%) to close at 1999.87
Volume: 1.356B (-11.31%). Second lowest volume of the year, both coming in the last month. Lots of low volume on NASDAQ as investors, while buying into technology on the rebound, are not lining up to put money into these stocks. Growth stocks need solid economic growth to expand, and with some softening in the yield curve and ECRI, they are showing some softening as well, not expanding on the upside move with much vigor.

Up Volume: 746M (+472M)
Down Volume: 586M (-657M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.04 to 1. Just about as flat as you can get.
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.77 to 1

New Highs: 40 (-24)
New Lows: 40 (+10)

NASDAQ had pretty much filled the Monday gap higher, not surprising given the rather lackluster break higher. It has not given back the breakout and still has the follow through on this rebound under its belt. That is positive for the upside. It is still below the January/April down trendline at 2010 and just missed recapturing some minor (more psychological resistance) resistance at 2000. It did what it needed to do in response to the Wednesday distribution, i.e., held the breakout. That keeps it in the hunt this week to try another break over the down trendline and continue the summer move toward the April highs at 2060 t0 2080.

QQQ continued to outperform the overall NASDAQ, holding the breakout and the move over the January to April down trendline (36.40). Very low volume but it too responded well to the Wednesday distribution. The pattern is still a double bottom with handle, but over the past 10 weeks there is also something of a reverse head and shoulders. It is in good position to try the April high (37.50) and even a breakthrough on up to 38.50.

S&P 500/NYSE

As with NASDAQ, SP500 managed a low volume rebound from the Wednesday selling but still closed below the 2003 down trendline.

Stats: +5.14 points (+0.45%) to close at 1136.47
NYSE Volume: 1.165B (-8.52%). Volume dried up before the 3 day break after the rising volume, though still well below average, selling on Wednesday. Volume is still well below average; even though SP500 has rallied and delivered a follow through on some rising trade, overall there is still a real lack of conviction this summer. Volume will have to rise to take out the April highs.

Up Volume: 681M (+407M)
Down Volume: 451M (-527M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.27 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.98 to 1

New Highs: 49 (-40)
New Lows: 27 (+9)

The large caps put a check on the Wednesday selling, rebounding to recover half the losses in a nice end to the week. The index tapped at the February/April down trendline (1137) three times intraday but could not retake it. It is banging right at that point as it easily held over 1125 support without coming close to testing that key level. Still poised for a test of 1150 (April high). After that it has a lot of heavy resistance from there to 1160 (1163 is the intraday high). It will have to find some additional strength to take out that level.

DJ30

Trying to exert some relative strength after lagging in a more ragged pattern during the correction. DJ30 held over the February/April down trendline (10,350) on the Wednesday selling and managed a bounce Thursday. Volume was lower, so there was no major upside strength, but holding that trendline gives the blue chips a decent launch pad to try for the April high (10,570). As with the other indexes the volume is lackluster, thus when it gets to 10,570, it will have a struggle on its hands unless there is a lot more trade on the upside.

Stats: +41.66 points (+0.4%) to close at 10410.1
Volume: 154 million shares Thursday versus 175 million shares Wednesday.

THIS WEEK

Very interesting week ahead both from the economics to be released as well as how the market responds to the Wednesday heavier volume selling and Thursday rebound. As noted they are still set up to continue the move toward the April highs, particularly QQQ, DJ30, and the smaller caps.

The primary focus will most likely center on the PPI (to be released no earlier than 6-15) and the CPI. PPI prices have been rising, but the key as we have discussed is whether those increases are passed onto the consumer. Over the last 20 years there have been rises in the PPI that have never made it to the CPI, including times when oil prices spiked higher. The market really seems transfixed by what the Fed will do. Greenspan upped the ante last week with his address to the other central bankers, putting on a tough face to show them he meant business. That was in part for show and in part the same old Greenspan we know. The impact on the market is, despite the Feds disclaimers, along the lines of 1994. If the Fed moves in baby steps (our apologies to What About Bob?) to get to parity or just below with nominal rates, it has 4 to 6 rate hikes to go and it has not even started. Add onto that what we call the threat to increase the size of the hike if the Fed deems necessary, and you have the market wondering, rightly so, just what the Fed is going to do. It basically has said it will do what it has to, when it has to, and make its own timetable for doing so.

To us that leaves the question about as open as it can get even with the assurances there will not be another 1994. Well, look at 1994. NASDAQ lost 12.5% in the first few months of that correction that lasted 10 months. The current correction has taken NASDAQ down 13.5% and has lasted 4.5 months already. As noted, the Fed has not even started raising interest rates. With meetings in June, August, September, November and December remaining this year, the Fed would be up just 100 basis points by November if it goes slow and steady. That most likely would not be an end to the hiking, but it would be another 5 months, making 10 months since the correction started. Assuming the market stays in limbo as it did in 1994 until the Fed said it was done, we dont see any difference from 1994 regardless of Fed soothsaying.

As always, the market is the final arbiter of the economic data. There are some signs of potential slowing reflected in the bond market and some leading indicators, and NASDAQ with its growth stocks started to lag some last week. At the same time other areas started to improve as noted. The market still has its follow through and its break higher intact, and we look for it to continue the move to the April highs regardless of concern about the Fed and some signs of potential economic slowing. The 1994 move saw its ups and downs in a range before it made the break higher; a move up to the April highs and a bit beyond would be no different.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1999.87
- Resistance: 2000 is the top of the late 2003 base. 2012 the January/April down trendline. 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. Breakout from the pattern is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
- Support: 1990 is the lower end of the range of the tops of the late 2003 base. The 50 day SMA (1980) and the 50 day EMA (1974). The 200 day SMA (1966). 1900 to 1890. The April lows (1880, 1878).

S&P 500: Closed at 1136.47
- Resistance: The March/April down trendline at 1137. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
- Support: 1125. The 50 day SMA (1120) and the 50 day EMA (1118). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100. The 200 day SMA (1090).

Dow: Closed at 10,410.10
- Resistance: 10,478 (late April highs). 10,512 (late April high); 10,570 is the April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
- Support: The January/April down trendline (10,345). The 50 day SMA (10,266). Price support at 10,250. The 50 day EMA (10,243). The 200 day SMA (10,101). March low (10,007). 9900-9850.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the Economy section.

June 14
- Trade Balance, Apr (08:30): -$45.0B expected and -$46.0B prior
- Retail Sales, May (08:30): 1.0% expected and -0.5% prior
- Retail Sales ex-auto, May (08:30): 0.4% expected and -0.1% prior

June 15
- PPI, May (8:30): DELAYED 0.6% expected and 0.7% prior
- Core PPI, May (8:30): DELAYED 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior
- Business Inventories, Apr (08:30): 0.5% expected and 0.7% prior
- CPI, May (08:30): 0.4% expected and 0.2% prior
- Core CPI, May (08:30): 0.2% expected and 0.3% prior
- New York Empire State Index, June (08:30): 28.5 expected and 30.2 prior
- Michigan Sentiment-Prel., June (09:45): 91.0 expected and 90.2 prior

June 16
- Housing Starts, May (08:30): 1950K expected and 1969K prior
- Building Permits, May (08:30): 1965K expected and 2006K prior
- Industrial Production, May (09:15): 0.6% expected and 0.8% prior
- Capacity Utilization, May (09:15): 77.3% expected and 76.9% prior
- Fed Beige Book (14:00)

June 17
- Initial Claims, 06/12 (08:30): 330K expected and 352K prior
- Leading Indicators, May (10:00): 0.4% expected and 0.1% prior
- Philadelphia Fed, June (12:00): 25.0 expected and 23.8 prior

June 18
- Current Account, Q1 (08:30): -$139.6B expected and -$127.5B prior

ajren - 14 Jun 2004 17:32 - 90 of 95

Another great post.Very few posters.Hard to understand.
I can not understand why there is so much hysteria about oil.Why should there
be a problem even if there are more terrorist attacks ?
rgds aj

Insider trader - 15 Jun 2004 16:51 - 91 of 95

aj

If there is more attacks on the production side, pipelines etc, the price of oil will rise yet again due to the worry of being able to produce and pump it in the first place.

ajren - 15 Jun 2004 17:10 - 92 of 95

Russian oil a problem ?
rgds aj

Insider trader - 21 Jun 2004 08:38 - 93 of 95

aj - It's all down to politics as usual, just an excuse to put the price of oil up again.

===========================================================================

- Stocks overcome some negative news, rebound from Thursday.
- Economic undercurrents continue as current account deficit widens, Fed holding fewer instruments for foreign countries.
- Stocks set up for the coming week if investors are ready.
-Stocks end volatile week holding the range.
The news was not all that good for stocks Friday with a weaker semiconductor book to bill report issued Thursday evening, an expanding current account deficit, and more despicable terror acts in the Middle East. The news was sprinkled throughout the session, the last item shaking the market late, and stocks never quite got back on track afterwards.

Even with the last hour shakes stocks managed a positive close. SP500 moved over the down trendline intraday and was making a successful test when the afternoon news hit. That kept it from breaking that resistance on some stronger volume, though the volume was attributable to expiration position shuffling as opposed to any significant accumulation by institutional investors. Thus the move over that resistance would have been nice, but it would still take Monday to show that it was something more than expiration volume and volatility.

Not to say the action was negative. Stocks overcame some bad news and a softer open to close positive. SOX closed negative again, but it managed to hold some support at 450 and show a nice doji on the candlestick chart as it rebounded off its lows. Overall the indexes maintained their lateral move, bounced back some from the Thursday up and down action, and showed no real inclination to sell off. They are still set up in decent shape to try for another breakout this week.

If they do make the break higher, the issue still remains how high they will rally before this early summer move runs out of gas. It has not been a barnburner move by any stretch with volume remaining low and the moves either way mostly modest. Some are saying that a breakout will usher in a summer rally past the April highs, etc. We are not so optimistic, setting the April highs as our target, but will gladly let stocks run if they will. Certainly the action would have to change, i.e., there needs to be more sustained buying, for the indexes to clear those levels.

THE ECONOMY

Trade gap hits a record. Will foreign investors start leaving the pool?

At $144.9B the current account deficit hit 5.1% of GDP. The current account is the broadest measure of overall trade. The 5% level is considered key. Back in 2002 we discussed the 5% level as key at least in the sense others consider a key level. When there is a deficit in the number, the US needs other countries to invest more in the US to cover the gap. We buy more of their stuff, they are buying less of our stuff, so we need more foreign investment in other US assets (e.g., equities, debt) to make up the difference so we can keep running the deficit. At some point that deficit gets to an uncomfortable level for foreign investors. That can be caused by insecurity about the future of the economy, interest rates, inflation, etc. Indeed, the size of the gap itself can cause the insecurity because of the fear of what a large current account gap might cause. In other words, the gaps own shadow can scare foreign investors away.

If foreign investors dont want to finance the gap they sell their dollar denominated investments and move the money elsewhere. When you sell anything and there is not another buyer standing in line willing to pay a higher price for it, price falls. Selling can beget more selling, and then you have falling prices in US assets. That is another way of saying potential deflation, something Japan just spent a dozen years mired in.

Are there any signs this is happening? Thus far they are few and modest, but there are some. We have reported that there was an outflow of foreign capital from the US equity markets. There has been some of this continually ongoing since 9-11. The threat of terror reduced the value of US assets in the eyes of some foreigners. The weakening dollar after that event also showed the same effect: uneasy foreign investors putting some of their assets in non-dollar havens just in case.

The flow out of equity markets picked up some the past three months. The Federal Reserves holdings of securities for foreign investors fell over 5% the past quarter. There is a definite flow of funds out of the US. The key is whether the flow becomes a flood. There are a lot of issues that are a long way from finding resolution. Iraq, the war on terror, Fed rate hikes, what direction the US is going to take economically, socially and globally after the election, higher oil prices. Foreign money may just be taking a sabbatical until some of these issues are resolved. For now it is not critical, but it is very interesting that it started as the current account gap neared 5%. Again, that may be something of a self-fulfilling prophecy as the 5% of GDP in and of itself caused some to flee. After this initial flow the key is whether it remains light or picks up speed.

How does the Fed react?

The outflows are in the same league as rising energy prices: the Fed does not like them because they cut against economic growth and the Fed cannot do a whole heck of a lot about it without crushing the economy. Monetary policy cannot impact energy prices but in a very indirect way. It can make the US somewhat more attractive to foreign investors if it jacks interest rates up well above market rates; that makes the dollar more valuable as foreign investors want to put their money into the US and take advantage of above market rates without risk. Of course that torpedoes the economy as US investors do the same as opposed to investing in the US economy. In the long run that means you get low growth and interest rates the eventually have to fall due to lack of economic growth.

So you might conclude that the Fed has to ignore it. Or does it? Over the past quarter the broadest measure of money supply has risen 22% on an annualized basis. That is huge. Huge. That has led to several conspiracy theories as to the reason such as the Fed is anticipating some massive negative to hit the US. Maybe a terror attack, maybe a big meltdown in a major Wall Street firm or bank. With the Fed funds rate at 1%, there is not any real ammunition to stimulate the economy in the event of a major disaster, so the theory is the Fed is monetizing the economy even more in an effort to get it really running ahead of this event.

There are some major problems with those theories, one of the most apparent of which is the Feds impact in such situations is not in the quiet background ahead of disaster, but in bold moves following the event where the world looks to the Fed and says TGIF, thank God its the Fed as the central bank makes a dramatic move such as, well, injecting tremendous liquidity into the system.

There is another possibility. The Fed sees the possibility that more foreign funds may be leaving, and it is pumping more liquidity into the market to help speed the US economy and perhaps offset some of the negatives associated with the current account gap to the extent foreign capital will have to think twice about leaving. It can do this even as it talks of rate hikes. Remember, the Fed was lowering rates during the bear market but the money supply was not rising. It was not providing real incentive to borrow. Not until late in the game did it really let money supply go. Well, the opposite can happen here. It can raise rates but still pump up money supply. Even with rate hikes, at these low overall rates there is still a lot of stimulus. This is just a possibility for the dramatic jump in money supply. Frankly, the conspiracy theories about some big yet secret event to the entire world is a bit much. Usually the actual explanations are not nearly as entertaining as the speculation.

Did you hear the one about the minimum wage?

It is once again being proposed that the minimum wage be raised in order to get America out of poverty. Laudable goal, dubious methodology. The way to get America out of poverty is to remove incentives to stay in a poverty-inducing payment system. Take that money and use it to educate and train in areas the economy needs skilled workers. Provide incentives for employers to provide day care so single moms and dads can take the training and take those jobs. Put the rest of the money back in the economy to further drive technology and job creation.

History is replete with minimum wage rate hike examples. You know what happens when you hike the minimum wage? You get fewer workers doing the same work all of the workers did before. Small businesses wont hire that extra helper; they will simply make the others do that work. The problem is that simply raising the required wage does not generate more money, it simply causes a reallocation as to where it goes. If a small business only has a set pool of money it can pay its workers given its level of sales and expenses, it is going to cut back on something. Typically it is the number of workers, but it could also be that the business cuts its hours, civic donations, charitable donations, etc. None of those are good for the economy or those that live in this country. Again, a higher minimum wage does not create anything in the economy; it actually is destructive to those it is supposed to help and is another tax on small businesses that now have to make do with fewer employees or other investments in their business that could have made them more productive and profitable.

THE MARKET

To this point the upside move has been back and forth enough to make Job lose patience. Light early summer volume has kept SP500 and NASDAQ below the 2004 downtrend while DJ30, NASDAQ 100, and small to mid-cap indexes continue to hold over their 2004 downtrends. Leaders are holding up overall, but there continues to be erosion as the bottom drops out on apparently strong stocks. Big name semiconductors (INTC, AMAT, TXN, KLAC) continue to show very weak action while a few (e.g., BRCM) look very good. At the same time stocks such as MSFT and GE are showing a rebirth, rallying higher on strong volume as the come off their lows and form the right side of their bases. At the same time, big name industrials such as MMM continue to power ahead on volume.

Sounds like a market in transition, and while MSFT may be performing well, techs overall are having a rough go of it as NASDAQ has lagged the other indexes. It suffered two distribution sessions last week to add to the one the prior week. Breakdowns have not been confined just to technology, however. Even some of the defensive health and medical stocks are seeing the bottom open up and swallow them.

That has left energy stocks as one of the market leading groups. Historically that is not usually a positive for the market. Consumer, materials, and medical stocks are also leading, sectors that are a bit better for the market overall as they contain some growth stocks. Growth stocks are the market leaders in bull runs. If the more defensive, slower growth stocks take over, it is a sign the market is not anticipating strong continued economic growth.

Even with all of these undercurrents the indexes are still poised to continue the move off the May lows. Near term NASDAQ and SP500 have to take out their down trendlines. SP500 is at the doorstep, NASDAQ has some work but can make the move in a session as well. Again, the upside after that move is questionable above the April highs unless a real volume surge is maintained. As we noted last week, the market anticipates resolutions to issues well in advance, and it has yet to show action that suggests overwhelmingly favorable results regarding Iraq, the Fed, etc. At the same time it is setting up for the break higher. The strength of any upside breakout past the downtrend will be the best indication of the potential for the remainder of the rally. Indeed, a breakout itself could be the indication that the market has resolved its near term issues with Iraq, etc. As with all meaningful moves, volume will play the big role as the majority of investors will either want to move into stocks more aggressively or simply continue the same low volume meandering.

Market Sentiment

VIX: 14.99; -0.16
VXN: 20.02; -1.31
VXO: 14.75; -0.29

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.8; +0.01

NASDAQ

Rallied to tap resistance at 2000 once again, but gave back most of the move. Holding up, but needs to make a move to take out that level soon.

Stats: +3.06 points (+0.15%) to close at 1986.73
Volume: 1.729B (+16.33%). Big volume jump, but that was in all likelihood attributable to expiration though stocks such as MSFT, CSCO and DELL posted gains on big volume increases. Regardless of the Friday action, volume has to show some non-expiration strength on the next breakout move.

Up Volume: 930M (+513M)
Down Volume: 699M (-350M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.13 to 1. Mushy breadth as techs are still sluggish with NASDAQ underperforming much of the market thanks to SOX.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.5 to 1

New Highs: 65 (+5)
New Lows: 73 (+30)

A 26 point range, closing in the middle of the range. NASDAQ tapped the 50 day SMA (1974) and the 200 day SMA (1971) on the low (1973.91) and managed a rebound. Toward the close, however, it was falling as opposed to rising. Volume was above average for the first time since early May, but again, expiration drove that increase. NASDAQ held its ground above near support and below the 2004 down trendline at 2002. It is getting pinched between the two. There is a lot of pressure from the topside, and SOX as we noted Thursday, is a big drag on techs. That is one reason we believe that NASDAQ can bounce near term and move toward the April highs: SOX has sold hard and is due a relief bounce. That bounce can allow NASDAQ to break the trendline and test those highs. Unless SOX can pull a similar move and clear its 200 day SMA at 488, the move will be limited when SOX runs out of steam on its relief bounce.

QQQ gave a big intraday move up to 36.84 but it could not hold, fading similar to NASDAQ. Volume was extremely light as QQQ continued to hover over the down trendline (36.29).

S&P 500/NYSE

Decent action but gave up a brief breakout over the down trendline. Still ready to complete that move.

Stats: +2.97 points (+0.26%) to close at 1135.02
NYSE Volume: 1.494B (+15.27%). Above average volume as well, the first in just about a month. It too was expiration volume, so we are not putting much stock in it. NYSE volume, however, has showing positive attributes recently. Tuesday it was up on a solid up session. Thursday the index was down on rising trade, but the index made a strong comeback to close basically flat. This volume is indicating it is ready to make the break higher.

Up Volume: 901M (+199M)
Down Volume: 574M (+22M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.27 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.38 to 1

New Highs: 144 (+14)
New Lows: 22 (-18)

This past week SP500 may have made the higher low that often comes right before a breakout. Monday it was under pressure, but held key support at 1125. That was the low point as the close held above the 10 day EMA (1130) the rest of the week with the Friday close right at the 2004 down trendline. Still in a good overall pattern since March, and as noted above, the price/volume action of late has been markedly improved. While it gave up the break over the 1135 trendline (high at 1139.08), it is still poised to make a move that sticks as it works for the April high at 1150.

DJ30

With MSFT and GE showing very strong trade and most other components rising on solid volume gains, DJ30 tapped the top of the recent range on the high (10,438) on strong volume. Seems the technology components were finally in sync with the more industrial components. Not all was upside volume, however, as WMT and HD were lower on some hefty trade. All in all, however, DJ30 continues to hold easily over its down trendline (10,330), tapping the 10 day EMA (10,351) on the low once more. Price/volume action has improved nicely, and DJ30 looks set to continue higher this week toward the April high (10,570).

Stats: +38.89 points (+0.37%) to close at 10416.41
Volume: 300 million shares Friday versus 170 million shares Thursday.

THIS WEEK

Despite the struggles on NASDAQ, precipitated in large part by a languishing SOX, stocks are set up for a break higher. They were set up for a break higher at the start of the prior week as well, but the time was not right at that time either. The indexes are cheating higher as the June 30 Iraq handover and the FOMC meeting approach, and we still do not believe they will wait until the actual events to start their moves. The market anticipates events with respect to its more significant moves. Thus we still anticipate an upside move ahead of that period. Indeed, if stocks run to the April highs by the time of the meeting we could see the turnover and FOMC decision lead to a pullback.

That leaves us still looking at upside plays, and of course, if stocks continue a run past the April highs we will let them do so. If we see serious volatility and trouble at that level we will be ready to exit and also be ready with some downside positions. Again, for now that still leaves us looking at stocks that are in particularly good position to provide nice upside gains near term, e.g., breakout tests, 50 day EMA tests, solid patterns in high momentum stocks. There are still many solid stocks holding up quite well, ready to make a new or further upside move. We will take what the market gives on a further run from here, see how stocks react at the April highs, then move out and look to the downside if it gets rocky, take partial gains and ride the rest if it is still solid, and even look for more upside if it makes a really strong move at that point.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1986.73
- Resistance: 2000 is the top of the late 2003 base. 2002 is the January/April down trendline. 2024 is the June high. 2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level. April high is 2080. 2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.
- Support: The 50 day SMA (1974). The 200 day SMA (1971). 1925 is some support. 1900 to 1890. The April lows (1880, 1878).

S&P 500: Closed at 1135.02
- Resistance: The March/April down trendline at 1135. 1142 is the June high. The April and January highs (1150 to 1155). Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
- Support: The 10 day EMA (1130). 1125. The 50 day EMA (1121) and the 50 day SMA (1119). 1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100. The 200 day SMA (1093).

Dow: Closed at 10,416.41
- Resistance: Late April peaks (10,478 to 10,512). 10,570 is the early April high. Price consolidation at 10,600 level. 10,747 is the February high.
- Support: The January/April down trendline (10,330). The 10 day EMA (10,351) held on the lows all week. The 50 day SMA (10,257) and EMA (10,267). Price support at 10,250. The 200 day SMA (10,126). March low (10,007). 9900-9850.

Economic Calendar:

June 24
- Durable Orders, May (08:30): 1.6% expected and -3.2% prior
- Initial Claims, 06/19 (08:30): 340K expected and 336K prior
- Help-Wanted Index, May (10:00): 40 expected and 38 prior
- New Home Sales, May (10:00): 1120K expected and 1093K prior

June 25
- GDP-Final, Q1 (08:30): 4.5% expected and 4.4% prior
- Chain Deflator-Final, Q1 (08:30): 2.6% expected and 2.6% prior
- Michigan Sentiment-Rev., June (09:45): 95.0 expected and 95.2 prior
- Existing Home Sales, May (10:00): 6.50M expected and 6.64M prior

Insider trader - 28 Jun 2004 08:25 - 94 of 95

- Indexes closed mixed, poised for next week.
- GDP pulled lower by surging imports, Michigan sentiment rises.
- Fed ready to raise rates, but cautious of Japan lesson.
- Good finish to a solid week as semiconductors come to life.
- Big week, market ready to run ahead of the actual news.
Stocks hold gains ahead of important week.

The major indexes finished mixed with semiconductors, techs and smaller caps closing higher, DJ30 and the large cap SP500 closing lower. In the end they all closed around the highs for the week, mostly maintaining the solid gains that occurred when the market suddenly found volume on Tuesday and Wednesday. Not blowout volume, but a return to solid trade after a couple of months of low volume drift.

Why are we not throwing Friday volume into that mix? Because volume was snoozing until the close. It was the final day for the rebalancing of all of the Russell indexes, however, and though funds had 10 days to accomplish the feat, it appears that they, much as teenagers writing a term paper, waited until the night before to do their homework. NASDAQ volume was a sleepy 1.2B with less than 30 minutes left. It finished at 2.67B. NYSE experienced an uptick as well, coming in at 1.8B. Stocks went wild at the close with massive market on close orders sending stocks down, up and then back to where they were just moments before.

That volume left things looking different at the close versus 20 minutes earlier. Before that influence, however, stocks were mostly holding steady on lower volume, down from the session highs but holding up as they moved into another weekend filled with high anxiety about the stepped up Iraq violence. After a nice move Tuesday and Wednesday, stocks stood by their gains as they took a breather, and are poised to move higher Monday and Tuesday ahead of the FOMC meeting and the Iraq handover. If stocks do continue the move as we anticipate, that will put NASDAQ near the April highs. At that point and when the anticipation becomes fact, the market may have a bit of a struggle.

That is one reason we issued several alerts taking some interim option gains that were building up nicely as stocks had moved up well last week but started to falter over lunch. It was worth locking in some solid gain ahead of the weekend and we will look at doing the same ahead of the mid-week headlines on a further move. We still anticipate a move up into that news barring any major Iraq or other geopolitical event, and that will rack up more gains that we will look at banking ahead of the news.

THE ECONOMY

Final Q1 GDP 3.9%, below 4.4% expected.

It all depends upon where you get your news as to what view you have of the economic data that comes out. Many stories we saw on GDP only talked about how it was below expectations and down for the second straight quarter (4.1% final in Q4). That of course is not the best news for the economy, but it is not the negative impression that many of the stories left you with as they left out key facts that complete the picture.

The primary story is how GDP is calculated. GDP measures production here in the US. In Q1 consumers bought a lot of imported goods. A lot. Imports are deducted from GDP because they are not created domestically. The US consumer, however, buys foreign and domestic goods with equal enthusiasm when he or she feels confident about the future. IN Q1 the import purchases were much greater than expected, so much so that they were the primary cause of the fall in GDP from 4.4% to 3.9%. Without the imports, GDP would have been right up with expectations.

This always causes a lot of angst with economy watchers who refuse to factor in consumption of foreign goods as an indication of a strong domestic consumer. In addition there are other indications than the consumer; the big surge in imports masks them in final GDP. Thus the headlines about a weak GDP are somewhat disingenuous, but when you are in a political campaign year, the 'facts' are often adjusted to fit the purposes of the writer.

Not that the economy is surging, but it is not crumbling either.

ECRI's weekly leading index slid again the past week, continuing the string of lower indications the past month. As noted last week, this does not mean the expansion is over, it just means it is slowing from a very solid pace. New home sales surged in May, existing home sales (84% of the market) jumped 2.6%, corporate profits were up 2.1% in Q1 over Q4, much better than the 1.4% reported in May. That was slower than the huge 7.6% jump in Q4, but the pace is still solid overall.

It is important to remember that the economy moves ahead in spurts and then pauses, all the while maintaining its trend. In our society of instant information, we spend way, way, way too much time looking at not just the trees, but the individual twigs and leaves as well. The daily, even hourly, economic reports tend to obscure the bigger picture if we don't keep grounded in the bigger picture.

We continue to see signs of slowing ahead, but not a catastrophic drop in the economy. There is some uncertainty as to the future with the Fed about to embark on a rate hiking move, and that has, based on our surveys of businesses, put a bit of a slowdown on future investment. It has not stalled it, but uncertainty is the hemming in the strength of the expansion as some plans for investment and hiring are put off a bit longer just to see what happens. The Fed's history of killing off expansions casts a long shadow

The Fed's tightrope walk.

While the world is certain inflation is rising in the US, there are many undercurrents that the Fed has to be concerned with, and from what we hear from our friends at the central bank, the Fed is aware of them.

High energy cost paradox.

One that we have discussed in the past month is the paradox of higher energy prices. Oil prices have finally hit a peak and are hovering between $36 and $38/bbl. All of that production has had some impact and we anticipate it will continue to weigh on prices a bit more. They are still high, however, high enough to crimp the economy. Higher energy prices can pass through to consumer prices at some point. They have not in the last few price spikes, but that is always a threat. Higher consumer prices caused by rising energy prices can be called inflation, but it is not the textbook definition, i.e., more dollars chasing fewer goods. Energy price hikes are different from other price increases, however, because they work to slow the economy. Thus if the Fed raises rates because prices rise as a result of rising energy prices, that has basically a double if not even further magnified slowing effect on the economy. Just ask the 1970's Fed that raised rates to combat rising energy prices. All we got were incredibly high interest rates to go along with an incredibly depressed economy.

The Japan lesson.

The Japanese depression is the other undercurrent the Fed has to factor in. We swung from deflation fears to inflation fears in just about record time. Deflation was still a topic de jour the second half of last year, even among FOMC governors. Now it is not mentioned. Much.

Not many remember or ever knew or cared, but before Japan really went down the rat hole in the 1980's it looked as if it was recovering. After the first stock market bust similar to the US market's April to May 2000 plunge that took NASDAQ down 40%, the Japanese economy slumped as well, but then stabilized and appeared to be rebounding. The Japanese central bank was ready to stave off inflation that could crimp the recovery, so it hiked interest rates gradually. Problem was, the economy was not nearly as strong as they thought. The problems that gave rise to the collapse were deep rooted; the secular downtrend was in place, and the apparent recovery was just a bounce back in a bigger downtrend. The rate hikes simply put a few more bullet holes in an already declining economy.

The Fed is aware of what happened in Japan. Here in the US the pundits like to say that the US reacted differently, lowering rates rapidly and injecting fiscal stimulus into the system with tax cuts. That is true. As we noted during the recession and slow recovery, however, the Fed was behind the curve in lower rates, never getting ahead of real rates to the downside and thus providing incentives to borrow until after the fiscal stimulus had come into play. That helped prolong the decline and mitigated the recovery.

Now we are now 21 months from the market bottom, the true measure of when to start the clock for an economic recovery. We have had some very strong economic growth rates and the economy has expanded nicely, but we also have major problems facing us. We are at war, we have the threat of nuclear attack here at home, federal spending remains out of control. It is sickeningly ironic that our leaders ask us to sacrifice when their proposed highway bill has so much extravagance and pork in it. They say the entrepreneurs must sacrifice but at the same time funnel tax dollars to feed the fat man as President Reagan called the federal government.

The point: while everyone is concerned about inflation, we see signs of slowing economic activity down the road. Just look at commodities prices. The CRB peaked in March and has been trending lower since. The CRB industrials index did likewise. Commodities indicate that China has in fact slowed its economy, and as we are arguing, the US economy is slowing as well. Right now it is not an immediate problem, but with sustained higher energy costs that are working to slow the economy already, a series of rate hikes could accelerate the slowing already occurring. The growth rates have been impressive, but we have come through some very strange times. Stock prices started out at relatively high P/E's when the recovery began. There is another world war of sorts ongoing, and that has a way of bleeding economies. While there may be signs of near term price increases that need to be recognized and addressed, there are also big macro currents that raise the possibility of another undulation lower. Thus clamping down on growth by rate hikes is not the way to rectify the perceived price problem. Instead, actively promote supply with incentives to continue investing in the US. That way you address the price issues by increasing supply, and you also build up economic activity to help stave off any bigger picture macroeconomic downturn.

For now that is not even a consideration. There are two different camps in this political fight: making tax cuts and current stimulus current or cut it back, redistribute it, and then increase federal spending even more with national healthcare, etc. Both sides need to figure out spending is the real problem and slash federal spending. Cut the spending and let the taxpayers decide where their money should best be spent. The way both sides are racing to spend our money, that won't happen anytime soon.

THE MARKET

Stocks fought off the weaker GDP number and showed some early strength. While they backed off by the close, they did not roll over and they did not give up their higher volume gains from earlier in the week. The large caps and blue chips had a harder time late in the session, but overall stocks are poised to continue the move that started mid-week on rising volume.

The big difference in the market last week was the resurgence of the semiconductors. They rallied off some support at 450, paused after breaking the 50 day EMA, and are now heading toward the 200 day SMA (488) where they failed twice in the past month. Another good rally puts SOX right at that resistance. Whether it breaks through or fails will key the rest of the market's move. We anticipate the rally to resume ahead of the FOMC and Iraq handover Wednesday, and that would put SOX at the 200 day SMA and perhaps a bit beyond toward 500. Just as with the April highs on NASDAQ and SP500, that won't be easy for SOX to break through, at least on the first try. Volume will have to be even better than last week to clear those next levels.

Again, it is set up to move higher to try the next levels early this week, but moving significantly past those levels will be difficult unless there is a true change of market character.

Market Sentiment

Bulls vs. bears: Bulls backed off last week to 54.6% after hitting over 56% the prior week. 55% bullish advisors is a bearish sign, but the market rallied in any event. As noted last week, there was the 'indicators don't work anymore' feeling on the floor, and that is often the signal that at least near term there is enough pessimism to start a move higher. With bulls still near the 55% level and bears still low at 18.6% (20% is considered bearish), sustained upside will be hard to come by. Still, remember that these are secondary indicators. Price and volume action along with leadership stocks are the primary indicators as to the market's next move. Last week saw a good volume resumption of the rally that has some more upside in it.

VIX: 15.19; +0.38
VXN: 18.96; -0.4
VXO: 14.89; +0.5

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.68; +0.02

NASDAQ

One of the market leaders last week, NASDAQ posted another gain Friday, just eclipsing the early Junee highs. In good position to make a run at the April highs heading into the FOMC meeting.

Stats: +9.9 points (+0.49%) to close at 2025.47
Volume: 2.671B (+55.72%). Huge volume in the last few minutes made it look like an accumulation session. Before that surge, however, volume was 1.2B, well off pace from earlier in the week.

Up Volume: 1.728B (+968M)
Down Volume: 904M (+24M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.41 to 1. Not bad breadth for a slow session.
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.09 to 1

New Highs: 168 (+41)
New Lows: 84 (+54)

Once again rallied over the Junee high (2024) to 2033 before backing off at the close. Held the break over the Junee high but it was hard to quantify the action with the huge late volume surge. Before that surge volume was light, so the move was pensive. It has, however, left the NASDAQ in good position to continue the break higher. The initial targets are the late April high (2059) and early April high (2079). From there it is a matter of whether the move can gain additional strength.

The large cap techs put together a decent move itself though volume again eased, coming in well below average on QQQ. NDX, the full strength measure of the large cap techs showed solid volume heading into the weekend. QQQ and NDX have formed nice patterns and are ready for a break higher early in the week.

S&P 500/NYSE

The large cap names along with the blue chips took the hardest beating, falling back hard late as a lot of money moved around in the Russell rebalancing.

Stats: -6.22 points (-0.55%) to close at 1134.43
NYSE Volume: 1.817B (+30.29%). Huge volume jump late in the session. With less than a half hour left volume was just over 1B. Thus the selling was not distribution.

Up Volume: 841M (+240M)
Down Volume: 938M (+158M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.22 to 1. Very modest breadth but still positive even on a downside session.
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.06 to 1

New Highs: 149 (-56)
New Lows: 30 (+7)

Again cleared the early Junee high (1142) on the high, but was unable to hold the advance. It was holding up well until when it fell off the table with all of the market on close orders. It managed to hold roughly at the 10 day EMA (1134) and the 2004 down trendline. Despite the late dump lower, this leaves it in good position to move higher early this week. A 16 point move to April high (1150) with the January to March highs (1158-1163) realistically in range as well given NASDAQ still has plenty of upside before it gets to hits April high.

DJ30

The blue chips were hammered on the close similar to SP500 with the likes of GE and XOM getting clubbed. It fell through the 10 day EMA (10,390), but it is hanging on in the recent range. Unlike NASDAQ, it gave back its gain from mid-week. It is still holding up and ready to move with the rest of the market if SP500 and NASDAQ can recover and resume the break higher.

Stats: -71.97 points (-0.69%) to close at 10371.84
Volume: 308 million shares Friday versus 214 million shares Thursday. Big volume on both upside and downside moves, again with much of the volume and movement coming at the close basically requires you to toss out the volume for this index as well.

THIS WEEK

Big week in all respects. The market broke higher on solid volume last week, paused, and is set to resume the move ahead of the Wednesday FOMC announcement regarding interest rates and the Iraq handover. The latter is not like, say Y2K, that was over on a date specific. It is an important date, however, for the effort in Iraq. The economic data is also huge with ISM, personal income and spending, consumer confidence, and the June employment report. All of this comes before the July 4 three-day holiday, another date brought up as a possible terrorist threat.

That is a lot to digest at any time. We still anticipate stocks moving higher in anticipation of the Wednesday events as they continue to price in the possibilities on the idea of the events. Once they are here we have to see how the markets react. Key resistance lies ahead at the April and January highs; again, volume will have to be much improved for the indexes to take those levels out and continue higher.

In addition, the second half of July is never really kind to stocks. They move up into earnings, rally some on the first solid results, but then run out of steam. Q3 estimates are being written higher toward 26% already, so guidance will have to be good to keep stocks moving higher. We don't see anything to change the pattern this time around, but as always, if the market shows strong volume pushing higher, we will let the market lead the way.

What we are going to focus on this week are stocks that have made good moves and in the softer market Thursday and Friday have pulled back to test those moves. When they start back up they have proven the breakout as they have passed the test. Those show very good support and often cruise right on up in a rally. We won't turn down good patterns of any sort, but with the market already having run well and with the potential to run up to the big news Wednesday and then pullback, we don't want to into too many new positions that don't have much time or room to run.

Again, we won't pass up great patterns making strong moves, however. Why? Because leading stocks making strong moves in good patterns are one of the top indicators of what the market is going to do. Further, those stocks move farther and faster, and hold up better if the market does hit some rocks. It all goes back to seeing the big picture of what can happen and what is likely to happen, but also being smart enough to know that the market is the final decision maker. Take what the market gives and be happy with that.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2025.47
Resistance:
2024 is the June high. Not totally broken here.
2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last time it tried that level.
April high is 2080.
2089 is the February closing high. 2112 is the early January high.


Support:
2000 is the top of the late 2003 base.
1998 is the January/April down trendline.
The 18 day EMA (1992)
The 200 day SMA (1975).
1925 is some support.
1900 to 1890.
The April lows (1880, 1878).

S&P 500: Closed at 1134.43
Resistance:
1142 is the June high.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.

Support:
The March/April down trendline at 1133.
The 18 day EMA (1130).
1125 is key support.
The 50 day EMA (1124) and the 50 day SMA (1119).
1106 is a May 2002 top and represents some early 2001 lows. 1096 to 1100.
The 200 day SMA (1096)

Dow: Closed at 10,371.84
Resistance:
Late April peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high

Support:
The 18 day EMA (10,348)
The January/April down trendline at 10,315
The 50 day EMA (10,294) and SMA (10,255).
Price support at 10,250
The 200 day SMA at 10,148
March low at 10,007. Then 9900-9850.

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations.

June 28
- Personal Income, May (08:30): 0.5% expected and 0.6% prior
- Personal Spending, May (08:30): 0.8% expected and 0.3% prior

June 29
- Consumer Confidence, June (10:00): 95.0 expected and 93.2 prior

June 30
- Chicago PMI, June (10:00): 64.5 expected and 68.0 prior
- FOMC Meeting (2:15): Expecting a 25 basis point rate hike as forecast by the Fed funds futures contract.

July 1
- Auto Sales, June: 5.6M expected and 5.7M prior
- Truck Sales, June: 8.0M expected and 8.5M prior
- Initial Jobless Claims, 06/26 (08:30): 349K prior
- Construction Spending, May (10:00):.5% expected and 1.3% prior
- ISM Index, June (10:00): 61.2 expected and 62.8 prior

July 02
- Non-farm Payrolls, June (08:30): 240K expected and 248K prior
- Unemployment Rate, June (08:30): 5.6% expected and 5.6% prior
- Hourly Earnings, June (08:30): 0.3% expected and 0.3% prior
- Average Workweek, June (08:30): 33.9 expected and 33.8 prior
- Factory Orders, May (10:00): 1.5% expected and -1.7% prior

Insider trader - 19 Jul 2004 08:34 - 95 of 95

- Market cannot make use of good news yet again, starts yet lower.
- Consumer prices rise more slowly, capping a week indicating the economy is already starting back up.
- SP500 cracks through 200 day MA, NASDAQ dives lower.
- Techs in full retreat, following SOX lower, pulling large cap indexes with it.
Market squanders last rally attempt of the week as stocks turn and dive lower.

It was a week where the market was poised to rebound, but as it has the past three weeks, it frittered away each attempt. Sessions would start stronger with new promise on some decent earnings reports, but then it would fade to the close as buyers shot their ammunition early and had no reserves to take their place. Classic bearish intraday action underscoring the market weakness as one bounce attempt after another failed.

The weakness was most evident in technology and semiconductors, though by the close even the smaller caps that had held their gains most of the session reversed and posted losses between techs and large caps. Dell upped its Q3 guidance, but that was not enough to hold early gains. Retail, a strong performer even with WMT in the tank, has started to erode and was down harder Friday on fears the consumer would run out of steam just as it appears the economy is starting to emerge from its short slow spot. IBM was a stark example of technologys struggle, having posted a solid earnings report that gapped the stock higher only to relinquish nearly all of the gain on a strong volume surge.

That was typical action for most stocks Friday although there were still pockets of strength, e.g., small financials (savings and loans, regional banks), defense and energy. The small financials are something of a surprise. As we have noted before, however, energy does not provide the kind of leadership that pulls the market higher. Energy tends to feed off of things that make the market weaker, in this case higher energy costs. When you leadership group thrives due to conditions that sap the rest of the market, that is not great. If the market had more leaders like that it would have fewer leaders like that.

It was another day with the same old pattern for the week (up early, down late), but it had a twist. SP500 broke below its 200 day SMA and NASDAQ blew out the next support level. The downside door was opened further with the SP500s weakness, but at the same time the further selling, particularly the SP500 undercut of the 200 day, sets up a rebound to test the breach. The question on these moves is whether it unleashes a lot of short covering and buying that reverses the downtrend or if it is just a relief bounce. Thus far the market has shown no inclination for the former as it has squandered several set ups to make the move higher.

THE ECONOMY

June consumer prices rise below expectations.

Overall prices rose 0.3%, just over the 0.2% expected (0.6% in May). Year over year that was a 3.3% gain, the largest gain since May 2001. The core rose just 0.1% versus 0.2% expected, and that was the slowest rise in 2004. Year over year core prices rose 1.9%. The Fed had discussed transitory factors influencing inflation higher thus far this year (namely energy), and stripping out food and energy the lower core indicates that is the case. Energy rose 2.6%, down from 4.6% in May. Food prices climbed 0.2%, but that was down from Mays 0.9% gain. Thus the elements stripped from the core showed slower growth, and when taken from the core it was still slower. That means that prices for everything in the core rose at a slower pace even more than the prices for energy and food. In sum, prices are still rising, but the big spike in price pressure is abating or has abated.

This always raises the issue as to whether the governments statistics accurately reflect prices consumers are paying. Education is notably left out of the calculation, and we all know that education costs rise semester after semester. Still, the prices being measured are constant, i.e., the group is not changed, Thus those prices being measured, regardless of whether they leave out some key areas, still show the relative change in those items month to month. Unless the numbers are out and out being cooked, they show the price trends of those items included in the report.

China GDP rises at a slower pace.

Similar to US consumer prices, Chinas GDP rose a sizzling 9.6% for Q2, but that was below expectations of a 9.8% gain and down from the 10% in Q1. Incredible growth, but it is being slowed by the government tightening the lending parameters. This is the start of the soft landing China and the rest of the world has been talking about. Gee, they also called the US stock market crash in 2000 and the plunge in GDP from 7% growth to negative a soft landing. Ask those thousands and thousands of companies that were crushed on the rocks as the economy plunged as well as the millions who lost their jobs and big chunks of their retirements about soft landings. Whenever the government starts tinkering with an economy, there is reason to fear. Todays soft landing is tomorrows tailspin out of control.

That is an overstatement at this point, but it is worth remembering that the US economy was considered too strong by the rest of the world and the Fed was pretty much forced to hike rates by peer pressure. Once it started on that path it did not know when to quit. Further, the economy was already showing wear and tear that the Fed ignored as it continued to raise rates. Just something to note as the months unfold.

Economic articles still talking of slowdown, but the real slowdown is a ways off.

A perusal of weekend reports on the economy still lean heavily on the idea that the consumer is slowing along with the rest of the economy. As is usual the stories lag the real events, mirroring the reports that are already history as opposed to focusing on the leading indications. The regional reports from New York and Philadelphia were huge with respect to the size and breadth of their gains. We note that they were the leading indicators of the slowdown in the economy, starting to fall off in May before the other areas slowed. Now they are revving up again. This is how it happened with the overall economy as well when it was coming out of the long decline: the regional reports started showing life. A few months after they turned to expansion the overall economy did the same. They are very good leading indicators.

That does not mean that the economy is ready to bolt higher again with 7% growth. It is a resumption of steady growth. The real kicker in growth will come in Q4 as the last of the tax incentives are taken advantage of. That will jump Q4 up to a handsome level. It wont carry that pace over into 2005 because there wont be the push to invest before a deadline. After that you have an expansion that is going on 26 months (measured by the October 2002 market bottom, the true measure). It will still have more ahead of it, but at that point we have to look at the new administrations economic policies as well as control of the Congress to see if the administration will have the ability to get anything passed. Even with no action, however, many key tax cuts will start to sunset, and that will have an adverse effect upon continued growth.

THE MARKET

The market could not respond positively to good news, at least not after the first few minutes of the session. Dells raised guidance, IBMs solid earnings, a slow CPI all gave rise to a better pre-market and open. Once again, however, stocks responded to decent news with a reversal as not enough buyers came in to support the move. Once again sellers jumped on late after the buyers packed up their wallets. Volume rose as the selling increased, NASDAQ dove toward the May lows in its trading range, and SP500 undercut its 200 day SMA. Classically weak action intraday and on a macro basis as well.

Market Sentiment

VIX: 14.34; -0.37
VXN: 20.94; -0.74
VXO: 15.35; -0.38

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.12; +0.29. The third close over 1.0 in two weeks. A couple more of these will swing sentiment enough to help foster a bounce. There is more hedging going on as well as downside speculation as seen in our discussion of the NYSE short interest Thursday night. The market is starting to get oversold enough to bounce, but as of yet has squandered all of its recent opportunities to do so.

NASDAQ

Had the impetus to rally with Dells news, but an early gap higher was over before it started and the selling as well as volume expanded as stocks dove in the last hour.

Stats: -29.56 points (-1.55%) to close at 1883.15
Volume: 1.792B (+7.08%). Third above average volume session in a row, and two of them on rising volume, indicating the big money was selling their shares, the fifth such instance in just this month. This type of selling begets more selling, heading toward a showdown with the May low. We do have to consider it was expiration Friday, and that pushes up volume.

Up Volume: 264M (-497M)
Down Volume: 1.512B (+654M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.26 to 1. With chips on the plunge as well, breadth was pretty ugly.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1 to 1

New Highs: 41 (+7)
New Lows: 161 (+47)

Another gap higher on some once again good news was given back, this time hard with selling volume. It was expiration, but volume accelerated late in the session as the selling worsened, a clear sign of distribution. NASDAQ is heading toward the May low (1876 closing, 1865 intraday), and with the strong selling volume it looks ready to undercut the trading range/base for the year. That opens the door toward 1775, the October 2002/March 2003 up trendline or 1755, some July 2003 highs. Before that happens it will rebound in a relief bounce if indeed it does not reverse and climb back up in the base. After undercutting the May low the index, already oversold, will be well oversold. Many bets on a further fall will be placed given the break below the low. That often sparks the rebound as those that are going to sell have done so on the breach, and speculate on more downside. At that point the sellers are at least temporarily sated and start covering. That helps are rebound move get started.

QQQ is in full retest toward the March and May low at 34. That level is pretty solid support and will tell us a lot about how the overall index is going to react.

S&P 500/NYSE

After DJ30 cracked its 200 day SMA last week, SP500 wasted little time in doing the same on some rising volume.

Stats: -5.3 points (-0.48%) to close at 1101.39
NYSE Volume: 1.447B (+2.95%). Volume was up and above average again as the large caps slightly undercut the 200 day SMA. Rising volume breaches are particularly noteworthy as a large number of institutional investors are taking part in the selling. If it does not recover rather quickly it typically leads to more selling as the 200 day is what we call support of last resort.

Up Volume: 554M (-3M)
Down Volume: 882M (+49M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.11 to 1. Was much stronger while the small and mid-caps were sporting gains.
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.18 to 1

New Highs: 145 (+34)
New Lows: 52 (+8)

SP500 tried to hold the 200 day SMA (1103), checking up at that level in the last hour but ultimately unable to hold it as the selling expanding near the close. It was not much of an undercut at this stage, but it needs to make a quick recovery. When institutions sell through the 200 day SMA (evidenced by rising, above average volume selling), that spells even further trouble for stocks as the big money is getting rid of them, not even wanting to hold them at this low level. SP500 is still easily above its March low near 1090 and its May low at 1080 to 1075. If there is no quick recovery of the 200 day then it is open to sell down to 1075 where there is also some December 2003 support from a consolidation.

We suspect that there will be more selling, perhaps on sharp volume, that takes SP500 toward 1075. It may not make it that far, however, before it is oversold enough to provide a relatively solid relief bounce or even a real turn back up from this selling.

SP600 yet again traded above the 50 day EMA, and yet again failed to hold the move. It sold back to the 50 day SMA, again trading in the narrow range between those to moving averages the past week. Still holding up, but no move to jump into these stocks as they test the key 50 day EMA. Dont see a lot of pressure on the small caps, but we do note they gave up a nice intraday gain and then some.

DJ30

Rallied intraday to recover the 200 day SMA (10,202) but in the repeat of afternoon reversals, it sold off and broke below the recent lows of this month. Under distribution with first INTC and now IBM the index looks ready to test 10,000. indeed, that level seems to be drawing it down as it did in March where it held. It has been unable to move above the 2004 down trendline, and this recent resumption of distribution points toward a test of 10,000, but we anticipate a rebound attempt before it gets to that level, though we do not anticipate that rebound to make much headway.

Stats: -23.38 points (-0.23%) to close at 10139.78
Volume: 267 million shares Friday versus 232 million shares Thursday.

THIS WEEK

A bit light on economic data, and nothing until later in the week. Of course earnings reports will be released at a furious pace, and that will continue to give the market some impetus overlay in addition to the macro concerns about a slowing economy and the election ahead as well as terrorist threats.

The market finished weak with NASDAQ selling hard toward the May low and SP500 undercutting its 200 day SMA. The Monday following expiration is often the reverse direction, particularly if the move is strong. That has not held the past few expirations, however. What we want to see is further selling that takes NASDAQ to the May low (1876 closing, 1865 intraday) and SP500 to further undercut its 200 day toward the March low (1091 closing, 1087 intraday). That would set up a nice point to rebound and it would put the market in an oversold enough and fearful enough condition to do it.

Whether that is just a relief move or has more substance will be seen in how volume responds and how leaders perform. Leaders are coming under pressure one by one, group by group. Friday the internets were hammered on NFLX results. Retailers were hurt by HOTTs announcement about a down quarter ahead. Medical appliances, a heart and soul market leader, was hurt bad by SYKs results and guidance. When leaders stumble, the market has nothing to hold it up. Thus at this stage a rebound has to be viewed as a relief move until proven otherwise.

That is not all that bad, however. The market has been in a trading range, and another crash lower to test or slightly undercut that range would set up another run higher in the range. That gives us upside opportunity, though we have to assume the move is a trading range bounce as opposed to a breakout to a new high. We will look for stocks that are coming off support, testing breakouts, and of course, setting up to breakout as well. Friday the breakouts were in the oil and gas sector, but as the market hits bottom we will be looking at the other areas that have set up quietly even during the selling as well as those stocks coming off of their 50 day EMA and other support to ride a bounce higher.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1883.15
Resistance:
March 2004 lows at 1900
The 10 day EMA at 1936
The 18 day EMA at 1955
The 50 day EMA at 1972
The 2004 down trendline at 1974
The 200 day SMA at 1982
2024 is the June high.
2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last three times it has tried that level.

Support:
The May 2004 lows (1876 closing, 1865 intraday).
October 2003 low at 1865.
The October 2002/March 2003 up trendline at 1775.
July 2003 highs at 1755.

S&P 500: Closed at 1101.39
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 1103
The 10 day EMA at 1113
The 50 day EMA at 1121
1125 was key price support.
The March/April down trendline at 1126
1142-1146 are the June highs.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.

Support:
1096 to 1100
1090 is the March low
May low at 1080 to 1075

Dow: Closed at 10,139.78
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 10,202
The January/April down trendline at 10,265
The 50 day EMA at 10,275
Late April peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high

Support:
March low at 10,007
May low at 9852 intraday, 9906 closing

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the Economy section.

July 20
- Housing Starts, June (8:30): 2000K expected and 1967K prior
- Building Permits, June (8:30): 2000K expected and 2097K prior

July 22
- Initial Jobless Claims, 07/16 (8:30):

July 22
- Leading Economic Indicators, June (10:00): 0.3% expected and 0.5% prior
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