Trading statement today - not good and shares have halved - just starting a thread in case anyone is interested in looking for the dcb ....

Currently 19p to buy - not thinking of buying at this time but just started tracking



ains


last bought 25/02 @ 12.5 last sold 26/02 for 10% gain

Invensys crashes 470m on warning
Steve Hawkes, Evening Standard 14 February 2003

NVENSYS chief executive Rick Haythornthwaite dealt investors a crippling blow by slashing the engineer's profit forecast and warning of a hefty write-down at its troubled Dutch software division Baan.


Just a year after revealing the details of his strategic review, Haythornthwaite said second-half core operating profits may fall 25% below the 143m recorded in the first half. Shares in the group, which said it was confident of 'comfortably' meeting banking covenants, plunged 36% to fresh lows of 23 1/2p, wiping 470m from its market value.


Haythornthwaite, who has slashed the company's debts from 3.3bn to 1.5bn through disposals, said Invensys was still suffering from the slowdown in IT and telecoms signalled at interim results in November.


He said: 'This is clearly disappointing. It masks the substantial efforts and progress that we are making in the business to deliver a sustainable recovery.'


Analysts had expected full-year core operating profits of around 300m. Invensys is likely to fall short by at least 50m.


Invensys makes controls and automation systems, ranging from products and technology found in washing machines and thermostats, to equipment for the factory floor.


The group said a substantial decline in demand at Baan had continued. Its full-year performance was likely to be 'materially worse' than predicted four months ago. Invensys will review Baan's 650m carrying value at the group's year-end next month.


Trading in its Climate Controls division was weak in Japan. The downturn in IT and telecoms was continuing to affect the progress of power supply division Powerware.


Haythornthwaite insisted that in many areas the group was making 'significant performance improvement' with Appliance Controls continuing to build on a recovery seen in recent months. But the setback is yet another blow to the firm, whose market value was 13.4bn four years ago. Today's share price values it at little more than 822m.


Haythornthwaite joined Invensys from Blue Circle, where he was chief executive until the cement group was taken over by Lafarge. He arrived in October 2001 when predecessor Allen Yurko resigned. Invensys was formed in 1998 by the merger of BTR and Siebe.




2003 Associated Newspapers Ltd.

from the home page


Invensys running out of energy to manage
Falling demand and poor economic conditions take their toll


Invensys, specialists in production technology and energy management, dived 50% to 18.37p after warning group operating profits in the second half could be as much as 25% lower than in the first half. Given that it has already recorded a pre-tax loss of 58m in the first half, the prospect of profits receding at the operating level is alarming.

Investors seem to think so, and the price has been slashed by 32% in early trading to 25p, a fall from its January 2000 peak of 93%.

The Baan business has suffered a significant decline in demand, substantially greater than management expectations, and the carrying value of its investment will be reviewed at the year end, presumably resulting in an horrific writedown.

Trading in climate controls has been particularly weak, while volumes in Powerware continue to be depressed.

There has been more to be cheerful about in the production management division, with the first half's strong performance being carried through to the second half. The group also stressed that it remains confident of its ability to meet banking covenants comfortably, although just mentioning them is likely to make a lot of people nervous.

Think the BIG FACTOR is the word "COULD" as in it could fall 25% !

Bonds still relatively stable.

Yes ..... I noted that .... suspect the falls will be overdone - now 52% but I don't like the talk of banking covents as mentioned above.

Lots of bad media comment inc Working Lunch a few minutes ago


ains

After a 52% fall I expect all and sundry to be talking it down !

I think it has further falls over next week and could be a buy at 14/15p......will have to take a good look at these over the weekend before I decide..

yes .... there is no rush

(AFR) 14/02/03 18:21: Invensys PLC - Director Shareholding
Invensys PLC - Director Shareholding
RNS Number:5485H
Invensys PLC
14 February 2003

SCHEDULE 11

NOTIFICATION OF INTERESTS OF DIRECTORS AND CONNECTED PERSONS

1. Name of company
Invensys plc

2. Name of director
Mr Rolf Borjesson

3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect of holding
of the shareholder named in 2 above or in respect of a non-beneficial interest
or in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that person's
spouse or children under the age of 18 or in respect of a non-beneficial
interest
Director

4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the number of
shares held by each of them (if notified)
Roy Nominees Limited

5. Please state whether notification relates to a person(s) connected with the
director named in 2 above and identify the connected person(s)
No

6. Please state the nature of the transaction. For PEP transactions please
indicate whether general/single co PEP and if discretionary/non discretionary
Acquisition of shares

7. Number of shares / amount of stock acquired
100,000

8. Percentage of issued class
0.002857%

9. Number of shares/amount of stock disposed




10. Percentage of issued class




11. Class of security
Ordinary shares of 25p each

12. Price per share
19p

13. Date of transaction
14 February 2003

14. Date company informed
14 February 2003

15. Total holding following this notification
116,571

16. Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification
0.003331%

If a director has been granted options by the company please complete the
following boxes.

17. Date of grant

18. Period during which or date on which exercisable

19. Total amount paid (if any) for grant of the option

20. Description of shares or debentures involved: class, number

21. Exercise price (if fixed at time of grant) or indication that price is to be
fixed at time of exercise

22. Total number of shares or debentures over which options held following this
notification

23. Any additional information

24. Name of contact and telephone number for queries
Victoria Scarth, Senior Vice President, Group Marketing and Communications 020 78213538



25. Name and signature of authorised company official responsible for making
this notification
Emma Sullivan, Assistant Secretary

Date of Notification
14 February 2003

The FSA does not give any express or implied warranty as to the accuracy of this
document or material and does not accept any liability for error or omission.
The FSA is not liable for any damages (including, without limitation, damages
for loss of business or loss of profits) arising in contract, tort or otherwise
from the use of or inability to use this document, or any material contained in
it, or from any action or decision taken as a result of using this document or
any such material.

see times for rest of article

February 15, 2003

FSA steps in as alert prompts Invensys share fall
By Russell Hotten



THE City regulator is investigating the circumstances leading up to yesterdays surprise profit warning from Invensys, which saw shares in the engineering group halve.
Invensys had denied for more than a week that it planned to publish bad news. But yesterday the company announced a cut in profit forecasts and a writedown on its troubled Baan division. The shares collapsed amid concern that the companys restructuring had ground to a halt.

The Financial Services Authority (FSA) said it had not asked Invensys to release the statement, which came after the share price had already fallen for several days.

However, the regulator is thought to be looking at the circumstances leading to the announcement, which said that second-half core operating profits could be 25 per cent down on the 143 million reported last year.

many papers talking of a break-up or take-over so it will be interesting to see what happens next week..the current management are certainly no better than the last lot in my opinion.

Reminds me of CW. and SGC . Well next week will tell which way the cookie will crumble.

Yes ..... all the magick ingreients for a fast moving trading share - FSA investigation - talk of break up for extracting value - oversold by institutions as punishment for 'unexpected PW' ...... I will be looking to trade intraday on Monday

ains

I see the Telegraph are patting themselves on the back



Invensys

Last week we advised readers to sell Invensys when the shares stood at 42.75p. We feared there was "bad news in the pipeline" and warned that the troubled engineering firm was not out of the woods. Little did we realise how bad things were.

On Friday Rick Haythornthwaite, the chief executive, wiped more than 600m off the share price with a profits warning. Shares in Invensys have fallen 53 per cent since we advised readers to sell seven days ago. We remain cautious.





S Times

February 16, 2003

Troubled Invensys may break itself up
Nils Pratley



THE chief executive of Invensys, Rick Haythornthwaite, who saw the companys share price almost halve with last weeks profit warning, has pledged to consider a break-up of the company if his restructuring plan fails to hit its targets.
Haythornthwaite said he is still confident he can achieve his challenging ambition for improving margins, and that the company should not start hopping around just nine months into the strategy, but he added: If we miss those (targets), then clearly we will asking ourselves as to why.

If the answer is that the best solution for shareholders is a break-up then I wont be afraid to pursue it.

The deadline for assessing the margin targets 8%-10% for the production management division and 10%-12% for energy management will fall at the end of the next financial year.

It may not save Invensyss debt from being downgraded to junk status by the rating agency S&P. Moodys already has it on such a rating and S&P said late on Friday that it was considering similar action.

Yep Ains think your on the right track.Hope for a nice bounce Monday.

top of the FTSE100 risers this morning with 2nd largest volume



ains

Ains are you in yet?

I have been in and out ...... waiting now for re-entry ..... little news today which is irritating and US closed. NAS futures up 2 from +6 earlier this morning

Intraday graph looks like it's heading southwards at this timewithin a trading range 20/22p :-((



ains


from the Mail

Not so easy


I CANNOT understand why the City was so surprised at Friday's profit warning from Invensys. Fund managers* have surely read about the collapse in the rate of growth round the world. They must be aware of the squeeze on corporate profitability and the stagnation of industrial investment in the major markets. Companies on the rack include Invensys's core customers and it should not be beyond the wit of the City's excessively highly-paid fund managers to realise that if customers are strapped for cash and not buying its products, Invensys's sales will disappoint and it will have difficulty hitting its targets.


The fund management industry's knee-jerk reaction to poor performance from someone who is not a fund manager is to demand that they be replaced. But this often makes a bad situation worse, for whoever comes in will not understand the business, feel under pressure to appear decisive and therefore do the quick and easy thing - cut, close and sell off anything with temporarily depressed numbers. Typically, disposals are carried out with excessive speed and are often unnecessary. But Britain's financial sector is so much stronger than its commercial and manufacturing sectors that it calls the shots, however stupid.


Management, and particularly managing a turnaround in a troubled economic climate, requires patience, persistence, skill and understanding. Successful portfolio investment in these times requires similar skills. If fund managers would realise there are no easy answers or quick solutions to their own problems they might have more understanding of how to approach and handle other people.

17 Feb 2003 10:11 GMT

Invensys bounces on value, break up hopes

LONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Shares in British engineering firm Invensys Plc came back to life on Monday as investors saw value after a Friday profit warning sparked a 46 percent stock slide and raised talk the company might be broken up.
Invensys, one of the world's largest makers of industrial controls and automation equipment, was up 3.75 percent at 21-3/4 pence around 1000 GMT as investors saw an attractive price to earnings ratio and value in individual divisions, should they be sold off.

"It's a little bit of a technical bounce, and there's still some talk of a break up," said SG Securties analyst Zafar Khan.

Faced with steadily declining sales and profits, the company has cut jobs and costs and has reorganised from four divisions into two major divisions. It is divesting non-core businesses.

Some analysts believe its core production management and energy management divisions could now be worth more on their own than the company as a whole.

Invensys on Friday warned core operating profit could fall 25 percent from the first half but kept a target to raise operating margins by March 2004 in production and energy management.

Goldman Sachs on Monday slashed its earnings per share estimates for the company after the profit warning, but kept its "outperform" rating on the stock on grounds Invensys had already discounted a lot of bad news.

seems to be a tighter trading range than I thought - volumes are useful at 30 million but not exceptional under the circumstances


ains

WESTLB CUTS INVENSYS

Investment bank WestLB Panmure has cut its rating on engineer Invensys ISYS.L to "underperform" from "neutral" after the company said it expected a 25 percent fall in second-half core operating profit compared with first half results.

WestLB said the fall was "significant" and saw possible market weakness offsetting Invensys' restructuring targets.

Just featured on CNBC - nothing new - poor management + bad news factored in at this time

Still within the tight trading range



ains

afx at 1545

Break-up hopes aided a bounce for Invensys, up a penny to 21 following Friday's plunge of 45 pct after the engineer's much more severe than expected full year profits alert. Goldman Sachs was repeating 'outperform' advice on the stock, saying much of the bad news looks to be in the price already.

Currently tracking .....


In a note published today, JP Morgan maintained its 'neutral' recommendation, although it cut its forecasts, arguing that it remains surprised at the magnitude of the company's warning. The broker pointed out that it has cut its pre-goodwill EPS estimates by 28% in full year 2003 to 2.6 pence, by 69% in full year 2004 to 1.3 pence and by 51% to 3.1 pence in full year 2006, adding that it is also expecting a 250m goodwill write-down for Baan.

JP Morgan also noted that it is particularly disappointed by the continued problems in Climate Controls, noting that strong profitability and cash flow generation from this business had been a key element of its investment thesis. The broker went on to say that it does not expect an imminent liquidity problem but sees covenants becoming tight again at the end of 2004, although it added that it would not be surprised to see further asset disposals to refinance debt maturing in the summer 2004.

JP Morgan said it sees opportunity for the stock to bounce from its lows, but finds it hard to make a convincing value case, as its valuation is critically dependant on the pension deficit. The broker calculates a current fair value of 18 pence and upside to 35 pence based on full year 2005 estimates, although in the short term a drop out of the FTSE 100 in March could create downside risk for the shares.

currently at 19p so Morgans were right about ISYS .. think it will fall another 10% from here and might be worth a punt.

watching but no rush ..... tracking intraday with sophisticated alerts ..... made a few the other day but needs newsflow - 3rd most traded still - in top 100 ftse



ains

Think today may have been the day to buy. Has completed the 123 down up down bump, so should start to improve from here.

They closed at the intraday low on modest trading volume - I am certainly going to be interested in the morning .... cannot locate any news today

This is from yesterday US


Invensys: dogged by failure of Baan

Invensys has warned that Baan is likely to lose $16.8 million this year.

February 18, 2003 9:24 AM GMT (Datamonitor) - Invensys will have to write down part of the $715 million it paid for Dutch ERP vendor Baan. The business has failed to make progress in a difficult market and appears to be losing market share. Unless Invensys can turn the company around quickly, it will be under heavy pressure to sell it.


Dutch ERP vendor Baan continues to haunt Invensys. The London, UK-based automation and control systems vendor has warned that it will have to write down a substantial part of the $714.7 million it paid for the company in 2000 as the poorly performing operation is likely to contribute a $16.8 million loss this year.

Invensys warned in its mid-term report that the performance of its combined IT services businesses was considerably lower than last year due to "the substantial decline in market demand". However, in a profit warning it issued on Friday, the company said the full-year outcome is likely to be "materially worse" though "significant management action" has reduced costs and improved customer service.

Even though Invensys claimed that Baan was breaking even a year after it was acquired, there have been growing signs that the company was not a goldmine, and recently Invensys has been forced to deny rumors that Baan was to be sold off.

Chief executive Rick Haythornthwaite said Invensys wants to keep "a business with a good technology, loyal customers and a growing market and we're committed to make that happen". He said the potential for performance improvement in the discrete manufacturing sector is "enormous".

However, Baan's failure to make progress at a time when market leader SAP is holding its own in difficult market conditions suggests that it is losing market share. Invensys has been heavily criticized in the investment community for its poor performance, and unless its can turn Baan round quickly, there will be strong pressure to sell the operation.

In the news this morning

Telegraph

By Yvette Essen
(Filed: 20/02/2003)



Invensys in deep as blue chips flounder

British engineering group Invensys continued to be punished for last Friday's profits warning as it tumbled to a new low. It led the list of blue chip losers, falling 2.25 to 17.75p as 75.2m shares changed hands, compared with the average volume of nearer 25m.

Jonathan Hurn, engineering analyst at West LB Panmure, said investors are concerned the group will not meet its targets and is losing market share in certain sectors, such as the energy management division.

"People have lost trust in the management," he said. "It fell almost 50pc on Friday and people thought it would bounce back, but it has been deteriorating further."

In the wider market, the benchmark FTSE 100 was uninspired in early dealings and it eventually closed down 71.2 to 3658.3. Traders said pension funds had recently been selling out of their positions but were not coming back into the market.

They also whispered that a blue-chip company will be fund-raising in the market shortly. Life assurers Aviva, 27.25 lighter at 425.5p, and banks were cited as possible suspects. Goldman Sachs is thought to be involved.

Meanwhile, Wall Street retreated because of profit-taking and continued jitters about war with Iraq. When London closed, the Dow Jones was down 60 points.

CAN Rick Haythornthwaite, of Invensys, sleep more easily in his bed? As the shares hit a new low, one of the companys sternest critics will be troubling it no more. Dan Manor is the engineering analyst at CSFB whose aggressive stance last week cut through the wall of flannel from the company and forced it to release last Fridays profits warning. He has just left the broker to work for a hedge fund.


citydiary@thetimes.co.uk

Times - Invensys recorded the worst blue chip fall, off 2p to a low of 17p, in the wake of Fridays profit warning. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein cut its price target to 10p on Tuesday, while other brokers continue to downgrade their numbers in expectation of continued weak trading.

Ticking up - 3rd in risers list

Back down now! Think this will be a matter of time but these oversold constraints will work through. The value in the company now is looking better all the time.

yes ..... haven't traded today but tracking - US futures marginally off - intraday still falling but may buy on inraday bounce - half unit only


ains

another level down after stabilising for over an hour

This has clearly not helped the shares but ok by me as I track to buy a few


ains


20 Feb 2003 12:13 GMT

Invensys extends slump on outlook, management gloom

LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Shares in troubled British engineering group Invensys Plc ISYS.L slumped to an all-time low on Thursday as last week's profit warning heightened concerns about management credibility and recovery prospects.
By 1155 GMT Invensys shares were down 5.6 percent at 16-3/4 pence, the worst performer in the FTSE 100 index as the broader UK market pushed higher.

Invensys lost half its market value on Friday after it warned its second-half earnings may slump, and its shares have remained under pressure since.

"There's no fresh news, just people getting to grips with the profit warning," one analyst said. "Where they may have been overweight (in Invensys shares) in the hope of a recovery in the U.S. and its high exposure in capital goods, they've now realised it's not going to come around this year or probably next," he added. He said management credibility had also been rocked by the surprise warning.

Lehman Brothers slashed its 12-month price target on Invensys shares to 25 pence from 60p on Thursday, the latest in a string of investment banks to cut its target.

"Invensys' profit warning demonstrated not only the weak resilience of certain of Invensys' businesses to cyclical downturns but also, and perhaps more significantly, the disparate nature of the businesses within the group held together in some cases by what we believe to be insufficient management controls," Lehman analyst Lisa Randall said in a note.

Invensys, which was formed in 1999 when Siebe acquired diverse engineering group BTR, makes controls and automation equipment for factories, offices and homes. The firm's market value has slumped to about 600 million pounds ($960 million), making it likely it will exit Britain's FTSE 100 blue-chip index next month.

a new low established as vols pick up ..... not looking good intraday

I have 16p mid price and not looking good.. I think we may see 15p tomorrow...when will this fall ever stop.

its not looking very inviting ..... will wait on news i think

Ended the day at 17.5 in auction. Was a relief to see buyers coming in towards the close.

Watching the closing auction, there were 3 big deals posted on both sides (sort of like willy waving I think!). One was for about 5.5m shares, the other at 6.1m (2 the same size at different prices). They first appeared on the sell side at 17.5, 17.75 and 18p respectively.

What I deduce from that (if anything) is that sellers have possibly 11.75m to play with, and that buyers are perfectly prepared to take them on. Someone reckons there's put option contracts that expire tommorrow (I have my doubts) and that this will induce buying to mitigate the downside. Would be nice...

One of the shrewdest Fund Managers that I know has been quietly buying ISYS for his Fund and I have followed him in. He categorises this as a deep value stock.

Hello Austin.

Hi Hilary- long time no hear. I hope all is going well. No longer interested in the Cypriots plaything although I understand that the AGM was more of the nudge,nudge,wink,wink jam tomorrow nonsense. No time to waste on lost causes.

I'm well thanks, Austin. You too? Indeed, the Greek God's toy is disintegrating into a sad and sorry state of affairs. It amazes me though that, whenever he comes to town, he seems able to place a bit more stock so that he can pay the wages for a bit longer. Do you know who took it?

Not me

Well dont know if anyone saw the SETs order book at close of play but it was very very strong.If this follows through to tomorrow then I expect a very good bounce.

It certainly bounced around today at the new lower levels - it was tradeable intraday although I was not feeling confident enough to try ...... really looking for a significant news led bounce/rally but do believe we are starting to see good longer term value on a break up or new management direction.



ains



Thursday, 20 February 2003 at 15:54 GMT
M2 Communications Ltd.


Barneveld, The Netherlands -- Baan - the leading enterprise application provider for industrial enterprises and part of Invensys plc - finished 2002 with sales that reinforced a corporate strategy focused on industrial enterprises with complex make, move, and service needs. Baan won business at 44 new customers during the quarter bringing the total number of new customers acquired in 2002 to 159.

For the quarter ending December 31, Baan signed agreements with 24 new customers in the European region, 14 in the Americas, and six in the Asia-Pacific region.

"Our ability to win business at new accounts during difficult economic times demonstrates the confidence customers have in our solutions, our sales force and our sales alliance firms," said Laurens van der Tang, President of Baan.

"We have established Baan as a customer-driven company positioned for growth. We will continue to listen closely to our customers' needs and then respond with targeted solutions that can contribute to their profitability."





Invensys Wonderware Receives Control Magazine Top Award For Human-Machine Interface Software; InTouch HMI Product Voted No. 1 by Readers
2/20/2003
LAKE FOREST, Calif., Feb 20, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Wonderware, an operating unit of Invensys plc, today announced that Control magazine's readers awarded Wonderware's human-machine interface (HMI) software the No. 1 position in the HMI category.

In the annual reader survey, Wonderware's InTouch(R) HMI software product was selected as the most popular application for industrial automation, process control and supervisory monitoring. InTouch software is in worldwide use at more than 180,000 installations in a variety of industries including food processing, oil and gas, automotive, chemical, pharmaceutical, pulp and paper, transportation and power utilities.

LONDON (AFX) - Moody's Investors Service affirmed Invensys PLC's Ba1 senior
unsecured debt rating but changed the outlook on the rating to negative from
stable.
The outlook change reflects Moody's perception of weaknesses in certain of
Invensys' businesses that will prevent the company from meeting its earnings and
cash flow targets for the current fiscal year and possibly beyond, the ratings
agency said.
Any strategic response developed by management that fails to demonstrate a
clear path towards improving cash flows in the core business and/or include
measures to reduce net debt further would be likely to add to the pressure on
the company's rating, Moody's added.
Invensys has announced that, following a business review, management expects
second-half core operating profit to be as much as 25 pct lower than the
first-half figure, it said.
The new profit indications are materially below Moody's expectations for the
pace and impact of the company's restructuring of operations, it said.
The rating affirmation is based on the localised nature of Invensys'
problems, which provides potential opportunities for prompt restructuring or
reduction of exposure. The action also recognises the company's substantial
financial flexibility from its portfolio of assets, which offers monetisation
possibilities.
Moody's added it views positively Invensys' good track record of asset
disposals, even in challenging market conditions, with proceeds from such
disposals having helped the company reduce net debt to an estimated level of 1.5
bln stg.

Hmmmmmm ..... should knock the price a little ...... generally looking as though it will go lower intraday albeit suspect we have seen a bottom around 16p


ains

If this goes to 15p I'm in..

have an order waiting - i will go in around 15p


ains

16p seems to be holding

afx

Elsewhere, Invensys fell back for a fifth consecutive session after ratings agency Moody's Investors changed its outlook on the rating to negative from stable, although it also affirmed the engineer's Ba1 senior unsecured debt rating.

trying for 15p again after US open

bloomberg

Invensys Plc (ISYS LN) lost 1.5p, or 8.6 percent, to 16. The factory controls maker that lost half its market value last week may have its junk credit rating cut further by Moody's Investors Service because of falling demand for its software and machinery electronics.

gloomberg: did they make that comment after Moody's affirmed the credit rating based on further penetrating insight or are they just sloppy journalists?

Hesitate to call the bottom but think this is it!

way after ....

News coverage not encouraging for a quick return to favour



Invensys hits 20-year low on Moody's verdict
By David Litterick (Filed: 22/02/2003) Telegraph


Invensys shares edged to a fresh 20-year low yesterday after ratings agency Moody's changed its outlook on the stock from stable to negative, saying it was unlikely to meet its earnings and cash flow targets.

"Any strategic response developed by management that fails to demonstrate a clear path towards improving cash flows in the core business or include measures to reduce debt further would add to the pressure on the rating," Moody's said.

The engineering company warned last week that its second-half operating profits were likely to be 25pc down on the first half and added that it might not hit key performance targets. It blamed underperformance at software company Baan and its climate controls division, which together account for about 20pc of revenues.

Invensys's unsecured debt carries a Ba1 rating. Moody's said it would not yet alter its rating because the company difficulties were localised and could potentially be rectified. It also said Invensys still enjoyed a degree of financial flexibility, with its portfolio of assets offering possibilities for monetarisation.

The company has about 1.5 billion of debt. The ratings agency also noted that Invensys had a good track record of disposals and was not in danger of breaching its banking covenants.

Invensys shares slid 1.25 to 16.25p yesterday, having fallen from 124p over the past 12 months. Now valued at just 600m, the company is almost guaranteed to be ejected from the FTSE 100 at next month's reshuffle.

The company said the outlook downgrade would have no effect on its banking covenants or interest payments, but this is just the latest problem to affect the struggling group, which appears to be suffering a terminal decline having once been the seventh-largest public company in Britain.

One trader said the volume of shares traded, usually 25m a day, was heavy as investors become increasingly wary of the stock after its shock profits warning last Friday. "Private investors have given up on it and there are very few natural buyers for it so the momentum will be down," he said.

much the same from the Times

February 22, 2003

Invensys slides on downcast Moody's appraisal
By Russell Hotten



SHARES in Invensys, the troubled electronics and engineering group, fell 7 per cent yesterday after Moodys, the debt rating agency, took a downcast view on the companys prospects.
The Moodys comments will be grim reading for Rick Haythornthwaite, chief executive of Invensys, who hoped that the worst was over when the shares halved after a profit warning eight days ago.

Although Moodys maintained its Ba1 senior unsecured debt rating, the agency changed its outlook on Invensyss long-term prospects from stable to negative. The shares fell 1p to a new low of 16p.

The change by Moodys reflects its concern about whether Invensys will meet its earnings and cashflow targets for the present fiscal year and possibly beyond.

Invensys shocked the market on January 15 when it said that, after a business review, second-half core operating profit could be up to 25 per cent lower than last time. The underperformance relates to operations including Baan, the software company, and the climate controls division, which account for a fifth of revenues.

Despite worries about the pace and impact of Invensyss restructuring, Moodys was upbeat about its good track record of asset disposals, which helped to reduce debt to 1.5 billion.

Analysts, already cautious about Invensyss prospects, said that Moodys comments added to the nervousness among investors. We are still getting over the profit warning and are on the lookout for anything negative, one analyst said.

Invensys would not comment on the matter.

According to the Morgans the debt is 2billion and there is an additional pension deficit of 1 billion......this from the Mail on Saturday.I am feeling nervious about the prospects .

Inclined to agree but not looking for an investment for life ..... talk of new management initiative or break up will soon get them bouncing a little - question is - from where?


ains

Agree with you there ainsoph.......not an investment for life this one..

The Sunday Times - Business



February 23, 2003

Share of the Week



IT IS extraordinary to think that just 10 years ago the company now known as Invensys was one of the dozen biggest on the stock market. The former BTR has suffered a miserable decline since the departure of Sir Owen Green, a process only hastened by the unpopular merger with Siebe and the disastrous acquisition of Baan. The shares fell to 16p last week, not helped by Moodys negative outlook on its credit rating. Moodys is concerned that Invensys will struggle to meet its cashflow and earnings targets, already low following the latest profit warning 10 days ago. Invensys has become a bonfire of reputations, and there are no quick fixes for Rick Haythornthwaite, chief executive.

Guardian reports: the shares fell 0.25p to 17.5p after dealers blamed the fall on selling by index trackers. Invensys will fall out of the FTSE 100 at the next quarterly review in March. There were also fears that the engineering company could breach its banking covenants. In order for Invensys to access its banking facilities analysts believe net interest payments must be covered at least 3.5 times by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). However, they point out that even after last week's grim profits warning, the company should generate 340m of EBITDA in the year to March 30, 2004, while net interest payments will total 85m, leaving them covered four times.

biggest loser in top 100 this morning - down over 6% on 3 million traded - US futures marginally up on fair value


ains

24 Feb 2003 12:20 GMT

Invensys extends crash on outlook, banking fears

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Troubled British engineering group Invensys Plc ISYS.L extended the slump in its share price to a new all-time low on Monday as worries deepened about its recovery prospects and exposure to banking covenants.
At 1215 GMT Invensys shares were down 12.3 percent at 14-1/4 pence, the worst performer in the FTSE 100 Index. Invensys has slumped 94 percent in the past three years and lost two-thirds of its value just this month, slashing its market capitalisation to about 510 million pounds ($805 million).

The latest rout was sparked on February 14, when Invensys warned core operating profit in the second half of its financial year could fall 25 percent from the first half.

Analysts said the shares were hit by doubts it will be able to make its 2004 margin targets, its pension liabilities and worries it may have to renegotiate banking covenants, despite Invensys saying it was confident it will meet its covenants "comfortably".

Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service on Friday cut its outlook on the company to negative from stable, citing weakness in certain businesses "that will prevent the company from meeting its earnings and cash flow targets for the current fiscal year and possibly beyond."

One analyst, who asked not to be named, said: "This company has been mis-managed for a long time, it's been losing competitiveness, trading is tough, and although the balance sheet has been improving, now the (banking) covenants are coming back as an issue. There is a risk."

Invensys, which was formed in 1999 when Siebe acquired diverse engineering group BTR, makes controls and automation equipment for factories, offices and homes.

The company has cut jobs and sold assets to slash debt, but has been hit by a downturn in telecoms and information technology services and a weak U.S. commercial building market.

AFX on close

Engineering group Invensys was the heaviest blue-chip faller with a drop of 10.7 percent as worries grew about the company's ability to recover from poor trading and its exposure to banking covenants.

"I'm sure the banking covenants are OK at the moment, but if things continue as they are, one does have doubts about whether or not the company will survive," said Derek Mitchell, director of UK equities at ISIS Asset Management (LSE: ISIS.L - news) .

Another Ainsoph Kiss of Death

Kiss a teddy.

Still tracking and waiting to buy ...... or not

Heading south again this morning - must be another trade in there sometime soon :-))


ains



Invensys at 20-year low on bank fears
25 February 2003, Daily Mail

LECTRICAL engineer Invensys plunged to a 20-year low amid fears that it will breach banking agreements next year.




At 14 1/2p, down 1 3/4p at the close on Monday, the shares have fallen 60% since the profits warning on February 14.


The former BTR-Siebe warned of a steep slump in the half to March. The shares were 4 a year ago. New chief executive Rick Haythornthwaite took over last summer and has speeded up disposals to raise cash.


Invensys says it remains 'confident' that it will meet commitments. To avoid breaching covenants, March 2004 trading profits must be at least 3.5 times interest bills. Its broker Merrill Lynch predicts 100m interest and 355m trading profits next year.


That forecast depends on Baan, the troubled software division, breaking even from October. It is presently losing 500,000 a month.


Rating agency Standard & Poor's sees a 'significant chance' of another downgrade.



2003 Associated Newspapers Ltd.

Waiting for 3p, then buy.

patient teddy

Doesnt look good from where I'm sitting so I guess its best to sit on the sidelines till they sort their problems out..

Don't catch a falling knife, let the dust settle first.

wise teddy

I bought a few as part of an overnight play - 12.5p


ains

from the Telegraph

Traders spent yesterday speculating which companies would fall out of the FTSE 100 when it is reshuffled on March 12.

Hilary Cook, director of investment strategy at Barclays Private Clients, said troubled engineering group Invensys, which last night had a market cap of about 440m, was "pretty much certain" to fall out of the list of leading blue-chip shares at the quarterly update.


Fears that Invensys may breach its banking covenants were behind the shares' tumble yesterday. Under the covenants, interest payments must be covered 3.5 times by earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation.

Some analysts believe that while the company will comfortably meet that requirement this year, it will come close to testing those levels in 2004.

They said Invensys has some breathing space as it has no debt payable before June 2004 but with ratings agency Standard & Poor's placing its rating on negative outlook, any further deterioration in trading could be critical. Invensys fell 2 to 12.5p on heavy volumes.

However, a spokesman for Invensys said: "You would have to put on a pretty apocalyptic projection for us to breach the covenants." He said interest was currently covered 5.3 times and that disposals would reduce interest charges next year.

There we go ..... first talk of a potential bid


TIMES
Invensys showed no signs of reversing its post-profit- warning slide, 2p lower to 12p, valuing its equity at just 438 million. Although it is saddled with 1.6 billion of debt, some analysts believe it is now at a level where the likes of GE and Honeywell of the US, or Schneider of France, may consider a break-up approach.

Heading the risers charts :-)) ..... plus 10%




ains

Will cash my profits ..... 2nd time since thread started ..... will look for another entry another day



ains :-))

reuters

Battered engineering group Invensys was top FTSE 100 gainer, bouncing 10 percent to 14p after investment bank CSFB raised its rating to "neutral" from "underperform".

Bank your profit quick and buy a teddy bear to cuddle.

teddy

good morning.......had to get an upgrade to stop it going down the sewer....which is holsing them up but for how long?.....are moody's still stalking them?.....all the best

this is a st trading thread rather than a pension plan but think it was bouncing regardless of the upgrade


ains

02/26 11:08
Invensys May Sell More Assets to Protect Bank Agreements
By Andrew Noel


London, Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Invensys Plc, a U.K. electronics and engineering company built through $2.5 billion of takeovers, may sell parts of its business to avoid breaking bank covenants.

The disposal of units spanning rail-signaling, wind power and power supply products is just one of a range of options the company is considering if financial results don't improve later this year, Invensys director Victoria Scarth said. Scarth declined to discuss other options under consideration.

``We've been reviewing the tactics within our strategy and what will be required under a number of scenarios since the end of 2002 so we're on the case,'' Scarth said in a telephone interview. ``We wouldn't hesitate and we will do what is necessary so we do not break our covenants.''

Invensys expects to ``comfortably'' exceed loan conditions at the next test at the end of March, though a similar review in September may be more difficult, analysts said. Chief Executive Officer Rick Haythornthwaite has already sold 1.8 billion pounds' ($2.8 billion) worth of businesses to halve debt. Still, second- half profit may still fall short of analysts' forecasts, the company has said.

Teddy is right. Don't catch a falling knife.

wise teddy

tracking for another bite at the cherry or is it a prune :-))


LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Shares in British engineering firm Invensys ISYS.L rose on Wednesday, buoyed by speculation that a rival firm could launch a bid to break up the company as it fights to cope with falling sales, dealers said.

By 1157 GMT the stock was up four percent at 13 pence, bucking a weak wider market trend. The shares have lost over 60 percent in the last two weeks, hurt by deepening worries about its performance and persistent talk it was in danger of breaching its banking agreements.

Invensys told Reuters it was "clear and unequivocal" that it would not break its banking covenants, however.

"We are fully appraised of the possibilities on the upside and the downside at the moment and we have a number of options that mean we are just not going to let that happen. That is just clear and unequivocal," spokeswoman Victoria Scarth said.

But dealers said shares in Invensys, which makes controls and automation equipment for factories, offices and homes, had got down to a level which could draw out a bidder.

"The company is either going to go bust, or it will attract a break-up," said one dealer.

"At this level it's likely to attract a break-up," the dealer said, adding such a bid was likely to come from a U.S.-based rival firm.

Invensys's Scarth declined to comment on the talk, but said the speculation was "a natural consequence of a market that is pretty volatile and our share price which is weak."


ANALYSTS RAISE BID HOPES

Investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston has raised its rating on the stock to "neutral" from "underperform", but cut its share price target to 25 pence from 32p.

"Although we continue to believe that Invensys is losing market share and will miss its margin targets, overriding these concerns is our belief that Invensys is unlikely to remain as an independent plc in the long term," said CSFB in a note.

"If Invensys is broken up, we see a `break-up' valuation of 34p."

The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that Invensys is considering more disposals.

Hilary Cook, investment director at Barclays Private Clients said Invensys had some businesses that would be attractive to the likes of Siemens SIEGn.DE and General Electric GE.N .

"Do they (Siemens and GE) want to risk a big bid, a potentially hostile bid, at this stage in their business cycle when they can probably pick up the customers anyway?" said Cook.

Im in this one big time for a big time rise tomorrow.

February 27, 2003

Stock Markets by Nick Hasell TIMES

Break-up hopes help Invensys to halt slide



HOPES of further disposals and a mooted break-up valuation of nearly three times its current share price enabled Invensys to halt its steep slide.

Shares in the industrial automation and controls closed at 13p on Tuesday, against the 52p at which they traded at the start of the month, before fears of a profit warning disastrously fulfilled on February 14 began to take hold.

Although Invensys has reassured that its banking covenants are not under threat, followers took heart from reports yesterday that the company, which only completed a 1.8 billion disposal programme last year, may consider a further round of sales to shore up its finances.

Credit Suisse First Boston, which under Dan Manor, its now-departed engineering analysts, accurately predicted this months warning, also helped sentiment by upgrading its recommendation from underperform to neutral.

The Swiss broker suggests that Invensys continues to lose market share and may miss even its reduced margin targets, but places greater emphasis on a likely break-up of the company, on which it puts a 34p-a-share valuation. CSFB believes its production management business, which it values at 810 million, could draw interest from the likes of Siemens and GE, which are keen to expand in process automation, while parts of its energy management division, on which it places a 2 billion price tag, could be picked off by private equity players such as KKR. Schneider of France is also seen as a possible buyer of its power systems arm. With that view taking hold, Invensys added p to 13p.

upgraded by Credit Suisse First Boston and a fresh press report on its strategy going forward, traders said.

In an early note, CSFB raised its rating to 'neutral' from 'underperform', saying in the long-term Invensys is likely to be broken up and at current levels the risk reward ratio is looking attractive. The broker set a break-up value of 34 pence, but cut its target to 25 pence from 32, warning that Invensys is losing market share and will undershoot its margin targets.

CSFB sliced its second half forecasts on Invensys to reflect the poor economic outlook, geopolitical concerns and its own belief that efficiency gains were just 30m, it said. It has cut its forecast for second half 2003 core EBITA to 111m from 145m. Turning to the full year 2004, it has lowered its margin forecast to 6.6% from 8.2 pct, and dropped its EPS forecast to 1.19 pence from 2.8 pence. On its 2004 forecasts, it noted that Invensys trades at 13.4 times projected earnings and 0.65 times EV/sales. And just this morning, the Financial Times reported that Invensys is considering a fresh disposal programme if growing pension liabilities and collapsing sales combine to lead it to break its banking covenants.

The latest fear is that the trading performance and an estimated pensions deficit of 400m will mean Invensys breaks agreements designed to secure 1.5 bln stg of remaining debt, the newspaper said. Although Invensys insisted in its Feb 14 trading statement -- in which it warned on profits -- that this would not happen, it has since emerged that the company's contingency plan involves further large disposals, the article added.

heavy volumes again and up nearly 10% intraday - leading the FTSE100 risers

Still ticking up and heading the top 100 risers intraday - plus 15.28% @ 15p


ains

Thu 27 Feb 2003


LONDON (SHARECAST) - The electronic & electrical equiptment sector was helped along by Invensys which was boosted by news that a rival group could make a bid to break up the company as it battles against falling sales.

Top of the ftse100 risers board again @ plus 7.27% intraday


Fri 28 Feb 2003


LONDON (SHARECAST) - Credit Suisse First Boston has raised engineer Invensys to neutral from underperform, but cut its price target to 25p from 32p.

Not in these at this time


(AFX-Focus) 2003-03-10 18:29 GMT: Invensys long-term ratings cut to BB+ from BBB- by S&P
LONDON (AFX) - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it lowered its long-term corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on Invensys PLC to BB+ from BBB- after an initial review, and kept them on CreditWatch with negative implications, where they were placed on Feb 14 after a profit warning.
"The downgrade reflects the fact that Invensys' results for the year to March 31, 2003, are likely to be below the levels expected for the previous ratings on the group, and that, in the medium term, results are likely to remain depressed," said S&P credit analyst Leigh Bailey.

"There is also concern that Invensys' business profile and market position may have deteriorated, given the financial pressures faced by the group and its vulnerability to challenges in its markets from better capitalized competitors. Overall, Invensys' credit profile is no longer in line with an investment-grade rating."

Invensys said on Feb 14 that second-half 2002 core operating profits could be as much as 25 pct less than those of the first half. As a result, its credit measures for the full year 2002 are likely to fall below previously expected levels, which were already weak for the ratings.

The ratings on Invensys had previously factored in the expectation that trading would not decline overall in the second half of 2002 and that credit measures would improve over the next 18 months to levels in line with an investment-grade rating.

Invensys' business profile is likely to have weakened in recent months, as other major global players appear to have gained market share, particularly in the process and automation segments, S&P said.

The ratings on Invensys remain on CreditWatch with negative implications, indicating that they could fall further. As part of the CreditWatch review, S&P will assess whether the group's rated bonds should remain at the same rating level as the long-term corporate credit rating.

jsa/shw

sensible !

teddy

Not interested at this time ......


March 11, 2003

VT Group chairman tipped as heir apparent for the top job at Invensys
By Jon Ashworth



INVENSYS, the engineering group facing relegation from the FTSE 100 index, is understood to have identified a candidate to succeed Lord Marshall of Knightsbridge as chairman.
Martin Jay, chairman of VT Group, formerly Vosper Thornycroft, is being tipped as heir apparent to Lord Marshall, who is up for re-election at the Invensys annual meeting in July.

With a chart like that I bet Trader ainsey is up to his little neck in these!

What a track record!

F

Out of interest dreamer/fugitive .... which of the following words were difficult for you to understand? ...... duh


ainsoph - 10 Mar'03 - 18:55 - 92 of 95 edit



Not in these at this time







ainsoph - 11 Mar'03 - 07:44 - 94 of 95 edit



Not interested at this time ......

In the Times......not bad for a company that is valued at 350m...hedge funds must have reversed their positions....time to walk it back up ?

March 15, 2003

Rumour of the day



Invensys rose p to 10p on talk that Siemens and Emerson are casting an eye over its process automation division, which Credit Suisse First Boston values at 448 million. Siemens is seen as a more likely buyer. Emerson, which is thought to be interested in its rivals client base, may face US antitrust problems with any deal.

Should be good for a recovery now.

Ainsoph,

Good morning. I'm back and fighting fitter than ever.

Good luck to all on this one.

Regards,

wordy

Hi Wordy

Talk that Siemens and Emerson are looking over its process automation division, which CSFB values at 448 million. Siemens is seen as a more probable candidate as Emerson, which is thought to be interested in its rivals client base, could face US antitrust problems in the event of a deal.

LONDON (AFX) - Invensys PLC said it has appointed Land Securities Group PLC group finance director, Andrew Macfarlane as a non-executive director with immediate effect.
In a statement, the company said Macfarlane will succeed Sir Graham Hearne as the chairman of the audit committee when the latter resigns on March 31.

Bloomberg




Invensys Plc, this year's worst performing stock on the FTSE 100, gained on expectations the six-day 20 percent decline in the price of crude oil will lower fuel costs at the maker of motors and railroad signals.

A war with Iraq ``could be longer and more difficult than some predict,'' U.S. President George W. Bush said, fueling concern about growth in Europe's second-largest economy after the U.K. government said retail sales fell in February.

Shares in Alstom, Invensys PLC and IMI PLC were downgraded, while SKF AB was upgraded by Goldman Sachs, which published a bearish note on the European machinery and electrical equipment sector this morning, dealers said. Downgrading the sector to 'neutral', Goldman said the outbreak of war had snuffed out the early signs of recovery that had begun to emerge in January and February. "Poor weather in February, together with delayed orders in March due to the macro uncertainty, leads us to expect some lacklustre first-quarter figures over the next few weeks," said the broker in a note to clients this morning. The broker downgraded Invensys and IMI to 'in line' from 'outperform', lowered Alstom to 'underperform' from 'in line', but upgraded SKF to 'outperform' from 'in line'.

LONDON (Reuters) - Engineering firm Invensys, which has slashed jobs and sold businesses to cut debt, has said it plans more asset sales to "secure a greater level of financial stability" as trading conditions have worsened.
Invensys ISYS.L said in the statement it expected annual core operating profit of about 250 million pounds for the year to March 31 and would not recommend a final dividend.

The company said the proposed asset sales, including the troubled Dutch software unit Baan, would have had combined revenue of 2.9 billion pounds in the year to March 2002.

The rump of Invensys after the asset sales would be the production management division plus rail systems, which recently won a London Undergound rail network contract.

"The board recognises the need to secure a greater level of financial stability and to enable sufficient investment of resource in the best of its growth opportunities," it said.

Shares in Invensys on Monday closed at 12-3/4 pence. They have lost nearly 90 percent of their value in the past year as a mountain of debt and weak markets worried investors.

Colin Marshall will step down as chairman of Invensys after its annual meeting on July 23, replaced by Martin Jay, the company said.

Invensys attempted to sooth market concerns with an asset disposal programme last year totalling 1.8 billion pounds, but analysts are concerned that the remaining businesses are less profitable.

Invensys, formed in 1999, has been hit hard by the downturn in capital spending by the telecom and information technology industries and a weak commercial building market in the United States.