Profit warnings and bid interest .... that's what we like :-))

Currently just sub 70p


There are always bid rumours and this one seems to havre substance - do not see them falling too far from here and will buy against the trade chart - possibly in two tranches


ains

April 23, 2003

Chubb's hopes hit by profit warning
By Mark Court



CHUBB, the security services group, which last week reported a bid approach, gave a heavy profits warning yesterday that sent its shares sharply lower, dashing hopes of a generous offer for the firm.

Last Wednesday Chubb topped the list of FTSE 250 risers after revealing that it was in bid talks. Yesterday it headed the list of FTSE 250 fallers, with a 10 per cent drop, after reporting a raft of setbacks across its businesses that prompted analysts to slash their forecasts.

One analyst said: It looks like theyre running up the white flag and surrendering in the hope of attracting other bidders.

WestLB Panmure cut its profit forecast for the year to next December from 92 million pre-tax to just 70 million to reflect the slowdown at Chubb, whose Asian business has been hit by severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars).

Jonathan Findler, Chubbs chief executive, said: The trading position in Hong Kong in recent weeks has become absolutely dire.

He added that in Hong Kong shops and restaurants are closed, which means they dont need cash picking up, or guards in shopping malls if no one is shopping in them.

Chubb shares fell 8p to 73p, a premium to the 67p at which they traded before talks were announced.

Chubb confirmed that the talks, thought to be with US conglomerate United Technologies Corporation (UTC), are continuing.

Analysts said the profit warning meant UTCs offer would fall short of the 90p-100p a share originally rumoured.

Sounds like the bid rumours are underpinning the share price at the current levels ains. Could be a downdraft if the bid doesn't materialise.

exactly

40 or 50p ains?

Like I say snappy I am tracking them with the intraday trading chart together with alerts on volumes as well as prices + news alerts .... i will let you know after I buy - not before :-))



ains

going for a longski then ains!

order book on the buy side doesn't look to special.

no .... it looks like it will slip a little further

yes that's what I meant, very little support there

even less since i last looked as well

CHB dipping to the southside.

that sparse support in the 68p region on the order book is getting eaten away slowly.

vwap @ 69.24

FRM now hold 53 million shares or 6.43%


intraday graph has levalled off for now - watching for next move


ains

volumes are huge at 21 million traded - US open has helped push them down again .... now off nearly 10% on the day at around 67p

it must still be too early for you to dip your toe ains

yes ..... still tracking ..... no rush at the moment



ains

Chubb

Neutral at 82p says Merrill Lynch (22nd April 2003).

Chubb has warned that profits this year will fall short of expectations as conditions continue to deteriorate in Asia and Onity (US hotel locks) and difficulties remain in the UK and Australia markets.

This has prompted Merrill to lower its forecasts to expect PBT of 83m and EPS of 6.8p this year. The broker has dropped its recommendation to "neutral" in light of these conditions and also to reflect that the shares currently trade above its price objective of 80p.

The sudden climb in the share price follows a recent bid approach for the group. Merrill admits a bidding situation could offer upside, but warns that the shares now factor in a premium and if a deal is not achieved the shares could fall significantly.

LOL !

Twice as nice have you anything to say on any thread other than LOL?

sharp move up this morning stsarting immediately after the bell - plus 6.11% and has been a tad higher with 11 million traded .... not unexpected bounce after the original hot money exitted


ains

Looks like we have seen the high for the day

just bgt. 7500 on a T+20 snap,at 70.35 looks alright to me ,

I think it's due to go south Shag. Might take out a small short on this one.

I feel a solicitors` letter coming on for that remark snap

LOL!!!!!!!!

Purely my opinion shag, no advice intended

my solicitors` hands were poised at the keyboard too, unfortunately she was so convulsed with laughter at ainsophs visions of tandems,alias`s and 83 year olds, she was unable to act, perhaps later

LOL!!!!!!!

Hedged me bets on this snap,also took a Sept spread bet short in case, volatility mon amour!
Well this is a KDC `be sure to short her tips` thread isn`t it?

April 27, 2003

UTC moves ahead with bid talks for Chubb
Dominic OConnell S Times



THE American conglomerate stalking Chubb, United Technologies Corporation (UTC), has completed the first stage of its due diligence on the security company and is expected to open talks on price this week.
Last week The Sunday Times revealed that UTC, which owns a stable of leading industrial brands, including Pratt & Whitney, Sikorsky and Otis, was the secret bidder for Chubb. The company told the market it had received an approach on April 16, but did not reveal the identity of the bidder.

Neither company would confirm the talks last week, but City sources said a UTC team had visited Britain and had completed initial due diligence on the deal by the end of the week.

Bankers close to the negotiations said UTCs looming investigations had prompted Chubb to rush out its profit warning on Tuesday.

The company stunned investors by saying its results would be below forecasts because of weaknesses in Asian markets in part blamed on the effects of the Sars virus and a downturn in demand for its American hotel security products I think you could say UTC smoked them out, said one source. Another banker involved with the deal said that Chubb had issued the profit warning to prevent UTC getting a nasty surprise.

The last thing Chubb wanted was for UTC to find out about this during due diligence, the banker said.

Relations between the two sides are said to be cordial, and UTC is hopeful of securing a recommendation from the Chubb board, led by Sir Robert Horton, chairman.

An agreed deal is likely, said one insider. Horton has struck up a good relationship with George David (UTCs chairman and chief executive).

Talks on price are expected to begin this week, although striking a deal could take more than a fortnight. Analysts believe that UTC will offer between 80p and 85p a share, valuing Chubb at 705m. The shares closed last week at 70p.

Reports of the UTC approach triggered a rally in Chubbs shares, only for them to fall again after last weeks profit warning.


Pratt & Whitney, the aeroengine maker owned by UTC, is poised to snatch a $4 billion contract to power a new European military aircraft.
The company is understood to be favourite in the race to supply engines for the A400M, the long-delayed transport aircraft being made for Europes air forces by Airbus.

The deal had been expected to go to EuroProp International (EPI), a consortium of Europes leading aero-engine makers. EPI comprises Britains Rolls-Royce, Frances Snecma, Germanys MTU and Spains ITP.

The contract to power the A400M is one of the largest and most prestigious military-engine contracts of recent years. About 800 large turboprop engines will need to be supplied for the initial expected production run of 180 aircraft.

One aerospace analyst said: I cant believe they are thinking about giving this contract to an American company. It is incredible.

But Airbus insiders said the Pratt bid was considerably cheaper than the Europeans and, given Pratts considerable expertise in turboprop construction, regarded as lower risk.

snap,

Well I took the fall with a spread bet down , and have just pocketed 750
after closing that, so up you go you again you Chubbie little madam!!!!!!!

This is bouncing back , I`m for the up now, 80p ish???