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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 8th September (BGY)     

Crocodile - 07 Sep 2003 12:35

draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10% draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10%

Gold

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fpDJIA.gqplus?511 marketwatch-ss.img?symb=SP500 fpNASDAQ.gqplus?183

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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)

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Pre Market Futures (7:30)
FTSE -18
TechMark -3
DAX +5

Hang Seng -77

Chart

Nikkei +32

Chart

DOW +12
S&P +1.1
Nasdaq +1.5

 

News Headlines:   Bovis Homes posted an 11 percent rise in half-year profit thanks to the boom in the housing market in the north of England Profits for the six months to June 30 rose to 46 million pounds above analysts' forecasts of 42-45 million pounds. It boosted its interim dividend by 15 percent to 5.3 pence.

IMI engineering met forecasts with a three percent rise in profit of 68.3 million pounds near the top-end of analysts' forecasts. They have almost finished the restructuring of the company by moving to cheaper manufacturing areas and selling non-core assets

William Hill biggest betting shop chain, reported a return to half-year profits and said its second-half would be dependent on sporting results in the coming months. The company reported profits of 85.6 million pounds (after a 12.2 million pounds loss previously, compared to analysts forecasts of around 88 million pounds.

Chelsfield CEO said he expected to lead a consortium takeover bid for the company by mid next month

Punch Taverns said it would raise around 250 million pounds in a refinancing deal to help fund new acquisitions and increase its debt capacity. They added that current trading was in line with its expectations

Taylor Nelson market research said it expected turnover growth in line with its forecasts for the full year. They reported first-half profit of 20.7 million pounds, up 8.9 percent on the year-ago period.

Travis Perkins building materials firm said firsts half profits rose 22.4 percent as Britons continued their relentless building drive and demand for its products grew. Profit leapt to 80.8 million and said it would pay an interim dividend of 7.6 pence, up from 6.1p.

Forth Ports Britain's third-largest ports operator, reported first-half underlying pre-tax profits in line with forecasts and said it was confident 2003 would a successful year. Profit rose 11 percent to 13.5 million pounds from 12.1 million last year with analysts forecasts ranged from 12.4 to 14.5 million.

Calendar

All GMT

ukf.gifUnited Kingdom (F)inals (I)nterim usf.gifUnited States (Click Flag)

Monday

8th September

 

Reporting

 

Financial Data

Bovis Homes (H1) 42-45m exp., IMI Plc (H1) PBT 66-68m exp. Informa Group (H1) 15-15.2m exp., Travis Perkins (H1) PBT78-84m exp. William Hill (H1) 88-90m exp. Candover, Forth Ports Plc, Georgica Plc,

Nestor Healthcare Group Plc,   OxGold Plc, Project, Telecom Plc, Roxboro Group Plc,

Taylor Nelson Sofres Plc, Wood Group

09.30 July Industrial Prod. 0.2% m/m, -0.7% y/y exp. 09.30 July Manufacturing Prod. 0.2% m/m, -0.7% y/y exp. 09.30 August PPI Input sa 1% m/m, 2.9% y/y exp. 09.30 August PPI Output sa 0.2% m/m, 1.6% y/y exp.

16:00 KC Fed Manufacturing Survey 20:00 July Consumer Credit $5bn exp.

 

euro.gifEurope & World
Air Liquide (H1), Lagardere (H1), TFI (H1)
Good Trading!   David@FTSEDOW.com    www.FTSEDOW.com

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Crocodile - 07 Sep 2003 12:35 - 2 of 24

 

Trading Thoughts & Week Ahead chart.gifSunday 7th September   (Crocodile)

A busy week ahead with news of the important recruitment market after HAYS and Robert Walters report.

MondayBovis is likely to show that the continued rise in house prices and a reduction in costs have been enough to boost profits, while its retirement homes business is also set to have improved its contribution. The city predictsis profits of 46.2m for the half, up from 41.5m last year. William Hill are expected to continue the good form with increased annual profit growth. Pre-tax profits are expected to race ahead to around 85m from 36.9m helped by the success of its new fixed odds betting terminals.TuesdayHays Logistics and recruitment is expected to post a fall in annual profits to 194.9m from 232m. Analysts reckon that while the group's personnel division has been doing well and other businesses, including mail and logistics, have traded in line with expectations, a slowdown in call centre business should lead to a disappointing performance in that division.

News of further disposal plans could released after the sale of Hays Information Management Services and a number of its Business Process Outsourcing operations. Bloomsbury Publishing will be releasing much improved interim profits opening its books after the huge success of the fifth edition of the Harry Potter series. WednesdayWoolworths report half-time figures after it said In May first-quarter figures had been affected by disappointing chocolate sales over the Easter period. Nevertheless Woolworths said its underlying business continued to move forward but improved profits will probably have to come from reducing costs not growth.ThursdayBAE Systems is expected to report half-year profits of around 345m compared with 359m last year. Increased production of the Eurofighter aircraft and strong activity in Saudi Arabia set to give sales a lift.  Annoucements recently have included a deal with the MoD for the latest generation of Hawk aircraft. The Indian Government has also chosen to buy 66 Hawk advanced jet trainer aircraft. Last year's interims shocked the City when profits fell short of expectations on the back of massive provisions.P&O is forecast to climb back into the black with interim pre-tax profits of 20m from losses of 25.7m previously. This will be helped with an improvement in property profits and ports and cargo should show some improvement from the 22% increase in container throughput already reportedNational Express rail and bus operator unveils half-year results on Thursday. The group reported a 39% fall in interims last year to 37m and they city does not expect anu improvement. Market watchers will be looking for news on the negotiations of new rail franchises to increase growth.Trafficmaster releases 6 month figures which are expected to show a lot of red ink.  The company has signed a number of key deals with carmakers that include Peugeot and Mazda. However, whether these agreements turn out to be lucrative remains to be seen. The company cautioned shareholders in June not to expect instant results.Friday

NXT The flat speaker specialist is expected to make a loss of 9.5m, which will nevertheless be an improvement on last year's 14m deficit.

Looking at this weeks chart we see that the FTSE continues to move forward in its current trading channel (In blue).  I see no reason for it to change direction in the short term but with a possible fall at the start of the week down to support followed by a recovery to finish the week still in the trend.

Wishing you all the best for the week ahead and as ever looking forward to your thoughts!

David

David@FTSEDOW.COM  www.FTSEDOW.com    All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

 

Financial Diary -  (Crocodile)

 

All  Times GMT

ukf.gif

United Kingdom

F)inals (I)nterim

usf.gif

United States

(Click Flag)

euro.gif

Europe & World

Monday

8th / 12th  September

 

Reporting

Company Updates

Financial Data

Bovis Homes (H1) 42-45m exp. IMI Plc (H1) PBT 66-68m exp. Informa Group (H1) 15-15.2m exp. Travis Perkins (H1) PBT78-84m exp. William Hill (H1) 88-90m exp. Candover, Forth Ports Plc, Georgica Plc, Nestor Healthcare Group Plc, OxGold Plc, Project, Telecom Plc, Roxboro Group Plc, Taylor Nelson Sofres Plc, Wood Group

09.30 July Industrial Prod. 0.2% m/m, -0.7% y/y exp. 09.30 July Manufacturing Prod. 0.2% m/m, -0.7% y/y exp. 09.30 August PPI Input sa 1% m/m, 2.9% y/y exp. 09.30 August PPI Output sa 0.2% m/m, 1.6% y/y exp.

16:00 KC Fed Manufacturing Survey 20:00 July Consumer Credit $5bn exp. Air Liquide (H1), Lagardere (H1), TFI (H1)

Tuesday

 

 

 

Hays (Year) 154.5-185m exp. Kidde (H1) 32-34.5m exp. Mersey Docks (H1) PBT 24.9-27.2m exp. Abbot Group Plc, Aegis Group Plc, Alumasc Group Plc, Biocompatibles Intl Plc, Bloomsbury Publishing Plc, British Polythene Industries, Chelsfield Plc, Ennstone Plc, Guiton Group Limited, GyrGroup Plc, Itouch Plc, Knowledge Support Systems, Menzies (John) Plc, Morgan Crucible Company Plc, Premier Farnell Plc, PZ Cussons Plc, Robert Walters Plc, Staffware Plc, Surfcontrol Plc, Thorntons Plc, TT Electronics Plc, Unite Group Plc, WSP Group Plc, Wyevale Garden Centres PlcMarconi Consolidation Ex Date. 1 share for every 5 shares held Todays closing prices will be used for the  FTSE quarterly  review

09.30 July Trade Balance -4bn exp. 09.30 July Trade Non-EU -2.4bn exp.

15:00 September IBD Consumer Confidence 15:00 August Service revenues 15:00 July Wholesale Inventories 0.0% exp.

Publicis (H1), Lufthansa (Traffic), Nokia (Mid-Quarter)

 

11:00 E12 Q2 GDP release 1

Wednesday

 

 

 

 

 

Amey Plc, Carillion Plc, Freeport Plc, Hiscox Plc, Mucklow (A & J) Group Plc, Paladin Resources Plc, PizzaExpress Plc, PSD Group Plc, SMG Plc, Spring Group Plc, Sygen International Plc, Coal Plc, Ultimate Leisure Group Plc, Whatman Plc, Woolworths Group Plc

Dixons Trading update & AGM

 

Bouygues (H1), Credit Lyonnais (H1), Vinci (H1), Enel (H1), Heineken (H1)

07:00 German July balance of trade 07:00 German July current account

Ex Dividend: Alliance & Leicester Plc (14.3), Antofagasta Plc (6.8966), Arriva Plc (4.6), Associated British Ports (6.75), Autologic Holdings Plc (3.6), Avesco Plc (3), Avis Europe Plc (1.3), BBA Group Plc (3.2), BFS Small Companies Div-Ord (2.25), Braime (Tf & Jh) (1.8), British Assets Trust Plc-Ord (1.304), British Vita Plc (5.75), Capita Group Plc (1.3), Carpetright Plc (22), Chemring Group Plc (2.55), Chieftain Group Plc (1), Clarkson Plc (7), Colefax Group Plc (2.06), Communisis Plc (1.613), Computacenter Plc (2), Courts Plc (4.6), Delta Plc (1.5), Heywood Williams Group Plc (5.25), Itnet Plc (1.33), Intercare Group Plc (2.3), Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group (8.5), Laing (John) Plc-Ord (1), Lavendon Group Plc (2.25), Legal & General Group Plc (1.57), Novar Plc (2.9), Pendragon Plc (3.8), Peterhouse Group Plc (3.5), Portmeirion Group Plc (3.3), Royal & Sun Alliance Ins Grp (2), Second Scottish National-Ord (2), Serco Group Plc (0.72), Southampton Leisure Holdings (3), Stirling Group Plc (1.07), Tolent Plc (2.25), Tomkins Plc (4.6), W.H. Ireland Group Plc (0.5), Wellington Underwriting Plc (0.35), Western Selection Plc (0.52), Wimpey (George) Plc (3.8)

Thursday

BAE Systems (H1) PBT 325m exp. National Express Group (H1) 37m exp. Peninsular & Oriental Steam (H1) 20m exp. City Centre Restaurants Plc, Development Securities Plc, Galliford Try Plc, Geest Plc, Hill & Smith Holdings Plc, McBride Plc, Roxspur Plc, Spirax-Sarco Engineering Plc, Trafficmaster Plc

13:30 August Export Prices 13:30 August Import Prices 0.4% m/m exp. 13:30 July International trade -$40.5bn exp. 13:30 Weekly Jobless Claims 405k exp.

Europe: Dexia (H1) Bic (H1), Clarins (H1)

07:45 French Q2 non-Farm Payrolls 07:50 French August Prelim. CPI 0.3% m/m, 2.0% y/y exp. 07:50 French August Prelim. HICP 0.2% m/m, 2.0% y/y exp.

Friday

R Intercontinental Hotels Group (H1) 60m exp. BATM Advanced Communications, Charles Taylor Consulting, Cls Holdings Plc, Coats Plc, Corporate Services Group Plc, CorGroup Plc, Highbury House Comms Plc, NXT Plc, Yule Catto & Company Plc

13:30 August Producer Prices 0.3% exp. 13:30 August PPI ex-Food & Energy 0.1% exp. 13:30 August Retail Sales 1.2% exp. 13:30 August Retail Sales ex-Autos 0.7% exp. 14:45 September Preliminary Michigan Sentiment 90.4 exp.

Fraport (Traffic)

07:45 French Trade Balance 07:50 French July Industrial Prod. 0.2% m/m, -0.5% y/y exp. 11:00 E12 Q2 Balance of Payments.

 

UK: Provisional Calendar For The Following Week  15th / 19th September US: Europe:

Monday

15th September

Bio Focus (I), Enterprise (I), Wilmington (F)

Business Inventories, Current Account NY Empire State Index, Capacity Utilization Industrial Production  
Tuesday

Acambis  (Q2), Access Plus (I), Axon Group  (I) Entertainment Rights (I), French Connection Group  (I) Future Network (I), Glisten  (F) X Interserve (I), Oxford Biomedica (I), Redrow  (F

Tesco (I)RICS House Price Survey August

NY Empire State Index CPI FOMC Meeting

 
Wednesday

Compel Group (F), Interior Services Group  (F) Kier Group (F), Kesa  (I), Kingfisher (I), Taylor & Francis Group (I)

Cobham(I)Xansa AGM

8:30 AM EST Building Permits 8:30 AM EST Housing Starts  
Ex Dividend: Cadbury Schweppes (3.65), HMV Group (3.4), Michael Page Group (1.1), Provident Financial (13.1), Renishaw PLC (11.36), Shell Transport (6.1), Torex PLC (1.15)
Thursday

Alvis (I), Antisoma (F), Chime Communications (I) Next (I), Urbium (I), Premier Oil (I)

CBI Monthly Trends Survey September CBI Total Orders September PSNCR August, PSNB August

8:30 Initial Claims 10:00 Leading Indicators 12:00 Philadelphia Fed 2:00 FOMC Minutes  
Friday

UK Double witching Johnson Service Group (I)

   

 

Crocodile - 07 Sep 2003 12:36 - 3 of 24

Sunday News 7th September         click to enlarge

Chemical attack drill on the Tube at BANK. Hundreds of police and emergency services personnel will respond to a simulated terrorist strike on London today. The exercise will involve a make-believe chemical attack on a Tube train at Bank station in central London. Scores of "casualties" will be decontaminated in the streets of the Square Mile, the capital's financial district. Full Story

Britain's economy is still fragile and the Bank of England should avoid raising interest rates too soon, Ernst and Young uses the same economic forecasting model as the Treasury, says fragile business spending, the sluggishness of the euro zone economy and consumers' growing debt burden could still derail Britain's fledgling recovery.

Defence Billions of pounds in contracts for tanks, submarines, frigate and aircraft face the axe in a budget review carried out for a new white paper on defence policy.

Small business A tax in which up to 1m husband and wife limited companies could be hit with unexpected demands for back-payments looks set to be reviewed by the Inland Revenue after months of intense pressure.

Telecoms: A shortage of 'third-generation' video phones is threatening 3s chances of hitting its target of 1m customers by the end of the year. Carphone Warehouse is among those waiting for phones.

Wealth: Britain now has more women millionaires (299,300) than men (271,700), according to a study that puts the shift down to changing social trends such as the climbing divorce rate and equal treatment of sons and daughters in inheritance. Royal Bank of Scotland and Weir Group have dismissed claims by a US lawyer that they helped Saddam Hussein build up Iraq's chemical weapons capability in the lead up to the first Gulf war.

Sunday Times:

Kerry Group shows the way with smooth handover at the top Collins Stewart analyst finds tracker in car Northern Foods boss departs Plea to Cayzers over Caledonia Investments Royal and Sun Alliance boss fights to win over investors Brascan salvo at Canary Wharf BT Group Number of wi-fi hotspots to treble Ryanair Holdings OLeary closes in on 1m a year Investors attack Monsoon directors Sharewatch: Northern Foods Paddy Power Daire O'Brien: Bets on the here and now Clydeport staff face pension bill Berkeley boss knocks down his holding

Paddy Power Holdings Working Day

Selfridges Peter Williams' working day Brewer in Vodafone move Sharewatch: Buyout chance offers hope on the Horizon Technology Ryanair Holdings Scotland fights for extra air routes Andrew Davidson: A dandy dresser in designer heaven British Airways Mulcahy to push for sale of Aer Lingus Vital Statistics Paddy Power Dawson International Woolly times ahead Judgment Day: Should you be buying shares in Bellway? Forth Ports Scottish Business Digest HSBC Shares could soar 15% by end of year Vital Statistics Selfridges Scottish Radio Dublin radio station attracts British bids BAA Scotland fights for extra air routes

British Energy Ministers are drawing up plans to take British Energy, the indebted nuclear power company, back into public ownership if a deal with creditors cannot be reached in the next three weeks. Monsoon Angry shareholders have asked for assurances that the retailers directors did not act illegally over a controversial put option being offered to investors.Punch Taverns The shake-up in the ownership of Britains pubs will gather pace on Monday when Punch Taverns announces it is raising more than 300m to fund a new acquisition spree. Housebuilder Bellway has a very strong record. Since 1995 the company has increased earnings per share* by 20% a year, matched by a post-tax return on invested capital during that period of 18.2%. For any asset, investors should worry when supply exceeds demand, but demand is exceeding supply at the moment, not only for Bellway's houses, but for its shares as well. Schroders owns a 3.2% stake. If Bellway slips up, it will join the likes of Bryant and Wilson Connolly in being owned by larger groups. Buy.

Sunday Telegraph

Amec flies the flag for British industry in Iraq Bernerd faces deadline on bid for Chelsfield BSkyB aims to triple Sky Plus subscriptions

BAE made fixed-price U-turn to win Hawk deal Son of Matalan founder makes 54m bid for Austin Reed 'I've been all over Royal & SunAlliance like a rash'

BAA The Government has told BAA that it will redeem its 'golden share' in the privatised airports company, paving the way for a possible break-up of the company or sale of Heathrow, Stansted or Gatwick airports. British Energy The Government has issued an ultimatum to creditors of British Energy that the stricken nuclear generator will be forced into administration at the end of this month unless they sign up to a new financing package. Cedar Thousands of small shareholders in the software firm Cedar are being forced to sell out to Alchemy, the venture capital firm, at just 3p-a-share after an 18-month battle to retain a stake in the former stock market darling. easyCinema A price war is set to break out in British cinemas after 20th Century Fox agreed to supply Stelios easyCinema, which offers seats for as little as 1 on releases of new films. Tesco A much-heralded '60m' price cutting campaign has been ridiculed by rivals after it emerged it had slashed the cost of Christmas puddings, Christmas cakes and mince pies at the height of summer. After announcing a 15-year extension to its 3 billion contract to manage the UK Atomic Weapons Establishment, support Serco (183p) services group has gone from strength to strength. A 3.6 billion, 25-year deal to run the Merseyrail franchise pushed orders to 9.9 billion in the first half and the firm last week said it has tabled a further 6 billion worth of bids. Interim profits rose 10% to 31.3 million. The Government continues to rely on groups like Serco to provide services for the NHS, schools and the nuclear industry. Keep buying.
Observer Asda plot to stop Green Safeway bid Dip in sales adds to Dixons' worries FSA widens Collins Stewart shares inquiry Granada's Allen signs for Olympic bid team

Collins Stewart Tullett The Middleweek tapes Royal and Sun Alliance Haste required to sort out right Royal mess at insurer

William Morrison Asda plot to stop Green Safeway bid

Safeway A joint 2.7bn bid for Safeway could be made by supermarket rivals Asda and Wm Morrison if multi-millionaire Bhs boss Philip Green wades in with a counter-bid next month. BskyB: The European Commission is set to level charges of price-fixing at the Premier League for the second time this year, if, as expected, it finds that BSkyB was the only bidder for most of its live match packages. Dixons  The electrical retailer is expected to confirm fears this week that the long hot summer has hit sales by as much as 2% in the last four months on the same period last year.
Sunday Mail: Watchdog to probe Collins deal Stock sold before insider row broke Sweets go in Northern shake-up, Sale to mint less than 10m Hornby puts on model performance 100m on the cards for Photo-Me sale, Non-execs may dispose of holdings Chelsfield board urges chairman's bid, Bernerd told to make intentions clear Marconi set to rejoin FTSE 250, Telecoms company worth 890m
Independent

Bradford & Bingley in drive for Swinton PizzaExpress, Punch Taverns Osmond to face probe over ski bar purchase

The Week Ahead: UK Coal

The Week Ahead: British Airways,

Business View: Ouch! The City grabs Royal & SunAlliance by the short and curlies BA and Yell shout case for promotion The Week Ahead National Express  

Bradford & Bingley: The former building society is planning to make a move into selling motor insurance and is in talks to buy the Swinton chain of high-street brokers for around 100m. Hugh Osmond: The City entrepreneur behind Punch Taverns and PizzaExpress is to be investigated over a deal to buy a small chain of bars from a travel company that collapsed earlier this year

IEasynet, an internet service provider through its UK Online plus its pan-European hardware, software and consultancy business, survived the technology boom and bust. The fall in its share price to 135p (Friday close) from a 2,950p high in October 2000, gives new investors an opportunity to snap up the stock at a more sensible price. The business is doing well, with losses falling and Marconi removing a final overhang by selling its 40% stake. Buying into the stock is not risk free, but could eventually pay off.

Scotland on Sunday

BAE boss begins battle for reputation Stoddard International Bosses deserve a carpeting Clyde & Forth enter ring to buy Trinity Mirror titles Debenhams Business news in brief John Wood Group Group to report profits up P&O risks 6m redundancy bill over axed route Aberdeen Asset Management Finding the perfect fit Forth Ports 5m plans to double freight capacity Scottish and Southern Energy Business news in brief
Sunday Express Costain cpnstruction is set for second half improvements after a 30% rise in interim profits of 6.1 million. Costain has focused in recent years on markets in which it can perform well against rivals. The investment bank Arbuthnot considers it a buy at 35 1/2p. Ask Central restaurant chain strong results demonstrates it is back on track after a difficult trading period. A new American-style diner, Joe Shmo's, suggests it is being innovative. Buy at 154p.

Investor Chronicle

Buy Centrica at 178p - Alpha Airports at 78p - First Quantum Minerals at 315p - First Calgary Petroleum at 53p - Inveresk at 18p. Sell NXT at 178p. Tip Updates: Buy Cardpoint - Ramco Energy - GlaxoSmithKline, Hold Debenhams - Whitbread is high enough. Company Results: Buy Paddy Power, Sell Computacenter and Hilton Group

Shares Magazine 

The Plays of the Week:Buy MTL Instruments at 160p - Centurion Electronics at 81p - Home Entertainment at 219p - 2Travel Group at 9.5p. Tip Updates: Buy/Hold Pilat Media and Molins Corporate Profile: WH Smith Group Small caps taking great steps: Legend Surf Shops - Doctors Direct - Faupel Trading - Coral Products - Dawmed Systems - Wigmore Group - Computerland - Victoria - Eleco - DRS Data - Shiloh

Click the paper name for a link.     david@ftsedow.com     www.ftsedow.com

 

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little woman - 07 Sep 2003 14:27 - 4 of 24

Afternoon all

Looks like a busy week ahead!

jgp212 - 07 Sep 2003 15:47 - 5 of 24

Me Thinks not :-)

Bolly Yes :-)

Footy Down :-(

Jeff

ThePlayboy - 08 Sep 2003 07:19 - 6 of 24

MON FTSE PP

R2 4282.3
R1 4269.7
PP 4248.4
S1 4235.8
S2 4214.5

Close above Fri pp, only lost 0.4pts in the auction so not much selling there!

WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4350.4
R1 4303.8
PP 4232.4
S1 4185.8
S2 4114.4

Close above the weekly R2 level this week,

ThePlayboy - 08 Sep 2003 07:20 - 7 of 24

Updated 9/5 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 9/8
UP Above 9,550
DN Below 9,450

Pull-Back
Dow pulls back off highs, holds above 9,450.

From prior commentary, "...the consolidation that is forming is more or less in the shape of a rectangle, and this kind of consolidation can break down fairly easily. A break below 9,540 will likely lead to a pull-back off the current highs..."
The Dow finally got a retracement after rallying solidly over the course of the previous six sessions. Looking at the 15 Minute Chart shows that the index broke the lower boundary of the consolidation at 9,540 and continued lower throughout much of the session.

However, as we have mentioned before, the Dow continues to look fairly strong in the overall medium term uptrend. We could see the index pull back even further before another move higher is seen. Look for a likely move back down toward the major lower trend line that has formed beneath the lows of the Daily Chart, which is around the 9,375 area. A break of this trend line will likely spark a significant push lower; but look for the index to continue trending higher above it.

The Dow has formed a short term trend line above the highs of today's downmove, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. An upside break of the line at 9,525 will likely spark further upside movement. A break above the recent highs of 9,610 will indicate even further strength.

Short Term Dow

Short term, we will watch the trend line that has formed across the highs of the 5 Minute Chart. An upside break of the line at 9,520 will likely spark a move higher tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we closed Longs this morning at 9,535, giving us a 54 point gain for the trade. We later entered the market Short at 9,528, and are still in the position. We will continue to hold breakeven stops for Monday's market. Stay Short below 9,450, and look for Longs above 9,550, with 10 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each pulled back today, taking modest loses for the session. The NASDAQ has formed a clear range at the highs, which we will watch closely Monday. Likewise for the S&P. *

Summary

The Dow got the downside break from the consolidation today, which costed the index 85 points today. The index continues to look strong in the medium term, but we will likely see a further retracement before another move higher is seen. Watch 9,450 down, and 9,550 up Monday.


Crocodile - 08 Sep 2003 07:44 - 8 of 24

Morning all

skinny - 08 Sep 2003 07:48 - 9 of 24

Morning! Still short BRBY BARC long LLOY.

little woman - 08 Sep 2003 09:43 - 10 of 24

Decided to have yet another change in strategy. (Keeping up with the times!)Spent the weekend deleting all my limit sell orders. I've now decided that I need to try and maximise my profits, and possibly hold shares a bit longer than a few days! So I'm now going to use stop loss orders to lock in the profits if the price drops, and if the price continues up, I shall keep the share!

Druid2 - are you holding PRU shorts? I noticed first thing they had dropped again, but they seem to be recovering.

I'm long Lloy too!

little woman - 08 Sep 2003 11:45 - 11 of 24

looks like TWT is definately going up today (buys order book is look pretty good). Hopefully enough for me to make a nice profit on the ones I bought last week when I was on a roll!

ianflemming - 08 Sep 2003 12:40 - 12 of 24

good afternoon all, i am new to all this and i have been reading your various comments over the last few days realising i have a lot to learn! Is it worth it though? I assume that you - little woman and jules99 for example- are full time investors. Do you make a good living out of it, or is that too indelicate a question? I have no real feel for what sort of money one could hopefully earn from share trading...sorry to sound so ignorant, I suppose I'm a babe in the wood...it looks like some of you have been doing this for donkeys years so it must pay its way?

little woman - 08 Sep 2003 13:14 - 13 of 24

Hi ianflemming

No I'm not a full time investor (wish I was) and I still work for a living!I'm lucky to work from home on and off, so trade if I can on those days - and then find I have to work on the weekends to make up for lost time! Personally I can't earn enough working so trade for the little extras in life, and spend about 50% of what I make. I try and reinvest the rest, as I need to think of my future and hopefully create enough money so I don't have to work anymore!

About 25 years ago, the father of a friend of mine died leaving her mother (who is still living today) a share portfolio which provided her with a dividend income of over 35,000pa then. (His two children also were given 75,000 in shares which they both cashed in and put into property). He had put all his spare money into shares over 40 years and even today, many people would be happy to receive annual dividend income of $35K. I know I would! Something to aim (rather than dream) for!


jph321 - 08 Sep 2003 13:26 - 14 of 24

hi all

quick quiery regarding MBF(mobile future) in shares magazine director dealings pg 58. it refers to one of the directors spending 1 million on shares at 0.25p per share, but at quantity of only 4 million shares bought should the cost not be 100k not 1 million. (big misscalculation by someone at moneyAM i think.

especially for such a small highrisk company.

Bullshare - 08 Sep 2003 13:36 - 15 of 24

IBM in the States has been upgraded today by Credit Suisse, so keep an eye on the Tech stocks over the water and here

ianflemming - 08 Sep 2003 14:16 - 16 of 24

thanks little woman. I have a long way to travel!

Crocodile - 08 Sep 2003 15:16 - 17 of 24

ianflemming
Welcome!

little woman - 08 Sep 2003 15:24 - 18 of 24

sold TWT at clearing 15% profit - not bad considering when I purchased them last thursday I thought it was a mistake! Think I will leave well alone now!

vasey - 08 Sep 2003 15:28 - 19 of 24

excellent result, littlewoman! Good trade!

Crocodile - 08 Sep 2003 15:30 - 20 of 24

Woolworths report on Wednesday and its believed that profits will be sharply down due to a slowdown in chocolate confectionary sales during the hot summer.
So it might be worth keeping your eyes on Cadbury for a tasty short.

Crocodile - 08 Sep 2003 15:30 - 21 of 24

Well done little woman!

little woman - 08 Sep 2003 15:42 - 22 of 24

Thanks - its great when a plan comes together - even by accident! Did someone once say that sometimes it is better not to know anything about a company??? (What I know about TWT, I would not normally touch them in a million years!) I managed to use what I learn't at the meeting we had in the south to do it!

Thanks Mike, David, & David! (Sorry chq not in post, because I need to go shopping with it!)

jules99 - 08 Sep 2003 16:56 - 23 of 24

A happy ending...

:-)

Druid2 - 08 Sep 2003 19:41 - 24 of 24

little woman

I'm usually on the threads off and on all day but today have been away visiting Mother in Law and other relatives. Just come back in. Yes to your question regarding PRU - unfortunately but still hoping to hold on until I get back into profit !! Also still holding LMC short. ETL's gone mad recently !! Hope everyone had a good trading day today.
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