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Corus Group set to crash (CS.)     

Share editor - 20 Sep 2003 14:42

Corus are about to have even worse interim news when their results come out next week which is highly likely to set their share capital back to 300m or around 12p a share.
There is signs that the dutch arm of the company is about to decline as has the British arm worsened in the last 6 months.

moneyman - 21 Sep 2003 19:28 - 2 of 25

Can you post some facts or is this pure speculation ?

Red Underwing - 21 Sep 2003 23:55 - 3 of 25

Analysts forecasts for Corus earning can be found on:
http://www.research.reuters.co.uk/Research/Earnings.asp?ticker=CS.L&country=GB&mxid=100098853&companyName=CORUS+GROUP+PLC&sym=RE

You will probably have to register if not already so!
But it's an interesting & useful site all round.

Fly by Night

Red


LINZIMASON - 22 Sep 2003 08:52 - 4 of 25

I don't know how this chart will look, but visited Reuters and copied it in. So far today, buys more than sells.

GENERAL CONCENSUS - HOLD


CORUS GROUP PLC (CS.L)

CONSENSUS RECOMMENDATION


Consensus Next Earnings Company Fiscal Last
Recommendation (approx.) Year End Month Updated

Hold 14-Mar-04 December 19-Sep-03




CONSENSUS ESTIMATES ANALYSIS


# of
Ests. Median
Est. High
Est. Low
Est. 1 Year
Ago



Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Dec-03 13 7,530.00 8,116.00 7,260.00 8,105.00
Year Ending Dec-04 13 7,598.00 8,565.00 6,448.00 8,006.00



Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Dec-03 10 -3.18 4.02 -20.56 7.45
Year Ending Dec-04 10 2.31 6.02 -7.47 16.25



Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Dec-03 9 -84.20 87.00 -223.00 168.57
Year Ending Dec-04 9 118.50 223.00 -255.00



Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Dec-03 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00
Year Ending Dec-04 13 0.00 0.50 0.00 3.50



Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence




ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS AND REVISIONS


1-5 Linear Scale Current As of 4
Weeks Ago As of 8
Weeks Ago As of 13
Weeks Ago




(1) Buy 3 3 2 1



(2) Outperform 2 4 5 5



(3) Hold 2 2 2 3



(4) Underperform 4 4 4 4



(5) Sell 4 2 2 2



Mean Rating 3.27 2.87 2.93 3.07





HISTORICAL SURPRISES


Estimate vs. Actual Estimate Actual Difference Surprise (%)



Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Dec-02 7,351.00 7,407.00 56.00 0.76
Year Ending Dec-01 7,760.00 7,699.00 -61.00 -0.79



Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Dec-02 -11.01 -14.65 -3.64 -33.06
Year Ending Dec-01 -13.17 -13.42 -0.25 -1.90



Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Dec-02 -294.50 -404.00 -109.50 -37.18
Year Ending Dec-01 -474.59 0.00 474.59 --



Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Dec-02 0.00 0.00 0.00 --
Year Ending Dec-01 0.00 0.00 0.00 --



Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence




CONSENSUS ESTIMATES TRENDS


Current 1 Week
Ago 4 Weeks
Ago 8 Weeks
Ago 13 Weeks
Ago



Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Dec-03 7,530.00 7,530.00 7,530.00 7,530.00 7,379.00
Year Ending Dec-04 7,598.00 7,598.00 7,598.00 7,559.00 7,340.00



Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Dec-03 -3.18 -3.18 -3.18 -1.76 -0.80
Year Ending Dec-04 2.31 2.31 2.31 1.29 2.31



Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Dec-03 -84.20 -84.20 -84.20 -74.00 -114.50
Year Ending Dec-04 118.50 118.50 118.50 -13.00 -65.00



Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Dec-03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Year Ending Dec-04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence

ESTIMATE REVISIONS SUMMARY

Number of Estimate Revisions Last Week Last 4 Weeks
Revised Up Revised Down Revised Up Revised Down


Earnings
Year Ending Dec-03 0 1 0 1
Year Ending Dec-04 0 1 0 1

little woman - 22 Sep 2003 09:08 - 5 of 25

Corus was overpriced and is now a more realistic price. But they should not be doing that badly. Over the 18 months they have reduce costs, and debt. They have cut back the UK side which is were they were doing worse. Steel prices are up, and they have a lot of assets. They'd sorted out the short term financing. The biggest problem they had was over production, which now should have been reduced. (The stock levels were growing because the sales were dropping.) As long as they are able to reduce costs & production, a drop in sales is not a problem. Analysts forecasts are often way off the mark, which is why we often hear about the results being better or worse than expected! If you really want to know what happening, speak to the horse's mouth and ask the FD how he thinks the company is doing! He tell you what he told the Analysis if they ask'd and it's up to you to decide for yourself, which is all they do!

little woman - 22 Sep 2003 09:16 - 6 of 25

This was posted by the company on the 1st August, (they should have had a pretty good idea on what the results are going to be then, and if there was anything to worry about this was the chance to warn the market!)

I think someone just wanted people to panic and so the price would drop!


Trading
Corus progressively achieved a more consistent manufacturing performance across the Group during the first half of 2003, including the successful resumption of two blast furnace operations at Port Talbot in January which has brought greater stability to the UK businesses. In EU markets generally, despite subdued levels of steel demand, improvements in average selling prices were secured. Against this background, the Groups operating result before exceptional items for the first half of 2003 is anticipated to be around 100m better than in the second half of 2002, when a loss of 141m was incurred. Net borrowings at the end of the half year have increased to around 1.55 billion, principally due to higher working capital requirements reflecting improved selling prices and increased output levels.

The Groups interim results are scheduled to be released on 24 September 2003.

Outlook
During the second half of 2003 the Group expects to continue to benefit from the improvements being made in its manufacturing performance, particularly in the UK, as well as from the strengthening of the Euro against Sterling, as currency exposure hedging of up to six months unwinds. Nevertheless, conditions in EU markets remain both challenging and uncertain. In addition Corus results for the second half of the year will include the normal seasonal impact of planned Summer and Christmas maintenance periods.

Share editor - 22 Sep 2003 14:26 - 7 of 25

Share editor - 22 Sep 2003 14:27 - 8 of 25

Little woman is that u ALIPMAC, I think so

andyspider - 22 Sep 2003 16:46 - 9 of 25

little woman, are you a holder of corus shares, i'm asking as you seem to be quite positive on them. What do you think they will do after results this week.
I hold them and i'm a bit nervous.

Any comments would be great ta

little woman - 23 Sep 2003 08:25 - 10 of 25

I've been buying (& selling) Corus shares since April. So far I am well over 100% up more than any other share I deal in! Throughout the period, a large number of people were always giving lots of reasons why the share will fall (all have to date not been proven), and yes it has a times but it has also gone up (more at times than I could even hope for!). Corus has a poor reputation in the UK, which is where thier problems have come from, but the the UK part is no longer the controlling part and therefore the problems have started to go!


By the way share editor, I'm a simple soul, what does ALIPMAC mean?

LINZIMASON - 23 Sep 2003 10:27 - 11 of 25

I decided to dump Corus yesterday before I lost any more. I hope it goes up soon for you, but switched into other things.

Red Underwing - 24 Sep 2003 15:36 - 12 of 25

I see you are all wearing your seat belts!

Has it hit the deck yet or will it fly again one day?

Fly by Night

Red

noukie6 - 25 Sep 2003 14:20 - 13 of 25

It's time for Formally Hoogovers to get rid of former britisch steel and go further on their own.

a dutch shareholder who believes in hoogovens and knows former britisch steel is doomed to bankcrupcy simply because the Englisch don't know what it takes to make a profit.

jules99 - 26 Sep 2003 01:21 - 14 of 25

Hope nobody got burn't with this one...

Stockwatcher - 26 Sep 2003 10:49 - 15 of 25

Has anyone noticed the relevance in the name of this company which probably sums it up - Co 'r' us.

washlander - 27 Sep 2003 08:32 - 16 of 25

Seems still some intrest in this company, looking at the trading. Could it be their British assets. Especially the land they own being sold off to cash rich developers?

Red Underwing - 27 Sep 2003 12:23 - 17 of 25

It's probably that guy Heinz Schmelter snapping up a few tid-bits :-)

Oh sorry he's actually Russian & named as Alisher Usmanov! See below.

If he has added a few we should see a notice over the next day or so. Since his existing holding is already over the notifiable %age.

Fly by Night

Red

am afx news 31/8/03
LONDON (AFX) - Alisher Usmanov, the Russian metals entrepreneur, has amassed a 100 mln usd war chest in order to double his stake in the steel firm Corus PLC, the Independent on Sunday said citing a US Securities and Exchange Commission submission.

The businessman controls iron ore and steel production plants in the Ural mountains in Russia and is close to Lord Owen, the former foreign secretary. He has been steadily buying shares in Corus and now owns nearly 7 pct of the company, worth 66 mln stg, through a Cyprus-based vehicle, Gallagher Holdings, the paper said.

It noted that earlier this month Usmanov told the SEC that he has arranged a 100 mln usd credit line purely for the 'purchase of securities and derivative financial instruments issued by Corus'.

little woman - 03 Oct 2003 15:11 - 18 of 25

This one seems to have hit bottom again!

Managed to make a nice profit today as timing seems to be important with this share!(Forget Long-term - just buy for quick profit!)

little woman - 24 Nov 2003 14:43 - 19 of 25

Someone wanted a thread on Corus and I hope you all don't mind but thought this one would be a good one to continue - as it just goes to show how quickly thinks can change!

rigor - 24 Nov 2003 19:13 - 20 of 25

is it worth taking the share option, or will they crash when they hit the market i have been offered 10,000 and cant decide what to do i bought in at 6p on the way down in march and bailed out at 32p last week

little woman - 24 Nov 2003 19:57 - 21 of 25

People have been predicting that Corus was going to crash all year (hence the thread) - but you have seen it has never happened. Yes the share has gone down, but it has also gone up.

Corus has a poor reputation in the UK - just as well they no longer as big in the UK as before(which I suspect many don't realsie) - which may have a lot to do with why they are still going strong.

Not knowing the price you've been offered the option - its difficult to say - but ask yourself - do you think Corus has a future? If no - forget the option, but if yes - go for it!

plumbob - 24 Nov 2003 19:59 - 22 of 25

plumbob - 24 Nov 2003 20:04 - 23 of 25

sold my corus on friday. rebuying von 6th dec

xmortal - 24 Nov 2003 21:35 - 24 of 25

A week ago. I read in Reuters news digest (a investment house prediction) that they will reach 50 just before the new shares hit the market then drop to 40p. I bought at 32p. Also Mr Bush said that import santions on EU steel will be lifted. Corus is still a well recognised competitor among its European counterparts so it can be a good catch if any decides to buy Corus. I know the last bit is just a conjecture. Risky. I m in for rapid profits then out

little woman - 25 Nov 2003 09:26 - 25 of 25

Buying & selling this share this year has given me the largest profit overall I have made on any share!
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