Well from what Ive heard and seen over the last two years its seems everybody has gone barmy borrowing as much money as possible. It seems the days when people used to save for a rainy day are far gone and the buzzword is now 'have you got a credit card'.
Nearlly everday I get a leaflet or letter through my door asking me if I want to borrow such and such for a new car or a house extension etc.
Leading Banks say we have never been a bigger country of borrowers, they estimate borrowing has gone up between 14% and 17% on an anualised basis this year alone, bang on all the existing debt outstanding and we could have OVERLOAD. And this will be further compounded with interest rate rises which I feel sure we will see later this year and going into next year.

Step forward Debt Free Direct, the provide a service that allows people to to get their finances back on track while still repaying their creditors far more than if the debts were passed to personal factoring and debt management companies.

Heres a summary of what services the company provide.....


Debt Free Direct helps individuals find the best solution to their debt
problems, based upon an analysis of their particular financial circumstances.
Financial information on an individual is processed through a computer model
(the Best Advice Model) developed by Debt Free Direct in order to recommend a
solution suitable for that individual's particular financial circumstances. The
solutions offered range from basic advice, such as simply destroying credit
cards and curbing unnecessary expenditure, to the following solutions:

* consolidation loan
* re-mortgage
* informal arrangement
* individual voluntary arrangement (IVA)
* bankruptcy

Debt Free Direct has a distinct position in the marketplace in that unlike most
of its competitors who sell specific products, Debt Free Direct looks to provide
the best advice to the consumer and recommends to them the most appropriate
service.

Debt Free Direct is based in Chorley, Lancashire and was admitted to AIM in
December, 2002.

The company have a strict sifting proceedure through the Best Advise Model and only about 33% of applicants get through therefore eliminating risk to the company.

Profit and Loss summary below


CONSOLIDATED PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNT

PERIOD FROM 26 APRIL 2002 TO 30 APRIL 2003


Period from
26 Apr 02 to
30 Apr 03


TURNOVER 1,058,248
Cost of sales (738,877)
_________
GROSS PROFIT 319,371
Administrative expenses
Goodwill amortisation (126,641)
Other administrative expenses (288,041)
_______
(414,682)
_________

(95,311)
OPERATING LOSS

Interest receivable 963
Interest payable and similar charges (80,443)
_________

LOSS ON ORDINARY ACTIVITIES BEFORE AND AFTER
TAXATION (174,791)

Tax on loss on ordinary activities 59,941
_________

LOSS FOR THE FINANCIAL PERIOD (114,850)
=========
Loss per share - basic and diluted (1.28p)

The balance sheet looks sound for a company in its infancy and its business model.


CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET

AS AT 30 APRIL 2003

FIXED ASSETS


Intangible assets 2,791,424
Tangible assets 211,349
_________

3,002,773
CURRENT ASSETS
Debtors 1,254,124
Cash at bank 81,249
_________
1,335,373

CREDITORS: Amounts falling due within one
year (1,672,471)
_________
NET CURRENT LIABILITIES (337,098)
_________

TOTAL ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES 2,665,675

CREDITORS: Amounts falling due after more than
one year (168,392)

PROVISION FOR LIABILTIES AND CHARGES (1,987,98)
_________

509,296
=========


CAPITAL AND RESERVES
Called-up equity share capital 225,000
Share premium account 399,146
Profit and loss account (114,850)
_________

SHAREHOLDERS' FUNDS 509,296
=========

In a business model like this you are going to get a big percentage of Intangibles.


The Business Plan Going Forward.

The model is based upon continuing to take a share of the existing market and
all our budgets and forecasts have been made upon that assumption. However
there is the potential for accelerated growth if the market, or our share of it,
increases. We believe that we are living through a period of quite exceptional
levels of:-

• high employment;
• low inflation;
• low interest rates; and
• rising house prices.

The above have dynamically combined and resulted in ever increasing record
levels of secured and unsecured debt. This is increasingly being used to fund
expenditure in excess of income. Essentially, too many people are living beyond
their means and are funding the gap with secured and unsecured debt.

At this time most people can afford the repayments on increased debt because the
interest they pay, notably on their mortgage, has been falling.

However the economic factors outlined above will not last indefinitely. We
believe that the time will arrive when interest rates will rise and this will
impact on the existing delicate economic balance prompting a vicious circle
resulting in ever increasing numbers of over-indebted people requiring our help.

We are confident that we are well placed to help them and that our business will
continue to grow even more rapidly in the years ahead.

Our purpose

Briefly our purpose is to:-

• provide the best advice to every over-indebted person who calls us;
and
• be the leading provider of advice and appropriate financial solutions
to over-indebted consumers with particular focus on the 'quality
sector'.

The 'quality sector'

Essentially these are generally responsible, mature people who through
unforeseen life events have become unable to pay their bills on time. This is a
situation that they do not like and they are 'the unfortunates' in what is often
perceived as an irresponsible market.

These are people, who having been pointed in the right direction will stick to
the most appropriate solution found for them and will become good customers for
us.

Building shareholder value

To continue to build shareholder value we will:

• target the appropriate market sector;
• provide the appropriate advice to a high technical and ethical
standard;
• provide appropriate empathy to their difficulties; and
• use the law and the regulatory framework which is appropriate for
their benefit.

In other words, shareholder value will be derived by doing what is right and
appropriate for all of our customers in every circumstance.

Debt Free Direct is different

We offer free, impartial, best advice to every caller........without exception.

Best advice is systematically delivered through a sophisticated computer advice
model. This has been independently recognised as an industry leader.

Furthermore, in a largely unregulated market our business operations are highly
regulated; something which we welcome. We provide advice in all financial areas
to include the most formal, legal insolvency processes and we employ highly
qualified Licensed Insolvency Practitioners whose advice and working practices
are monitored and regulated by the appropriate authorities,

We believe that this is a market which is ripe for increased regulation in the
future and we will positively welcome that when it happens.

We are encouraged to see that others share our view as highlighted by the OFT
guidelines issued to debt management companies and the recently announced
investigation into consolidation loans. Any increased regulations resulting
from these or any other government initiatives can only strengthen our position
in the marketplace.

We will particularly benefit as others struggle to embrace the cultural change
required from higher regulatory standards imposed upon them.

A Redmond
Chief Executive Officer

And finally the company have recently placed 3.85 million of new shares ahead of costs to partly fund a TV Campaign going up towards the xmas spending spree on Satelite and Terrestial TV. 1.5 million will go on advertising and to increase its Call Centre Capacity.

I rate the shares a long term Investment but there could be some interesting times ahead.

Please DYOR.

GF.

this compnay was tipped in IC this week issue

I thought it was quite highly geared though as a company - is the company debt borne out by the fact it is still a young company? Opinions please
BTW Yes GF I too am sick and tired of being offered more and more ways of basically getting into debt,direct marketing can be a total pain!

Stockbunny I agree. Like any young company and a service company its going to have a fairly high gearing, but the fact is that the recent placing was snapped up, so the institutions must have great faith in this emerging business model.

They are the middleman the way I look at it, and I supposed could be compared to brokers.

Over the next 18 months to 2 years with interest rates rising I see their customer base expanding greatly. Its not a short term punt but a medium to long termer I feel.

GF.

GF True...One for me to ponder about (research) over a glass of carrot juice.

Have been informed its in the race for Aim share of the year. Anybody know what results were???????.

GF.

Advertising Campaign now being put together for xmas run up.

GF

Todays increase in bank rate, makes DFD look even more interesting.
Personal debt is at a record high, and increasing interest rates will push more and more business in this companies direction.
I have increased my holding.

Same here.

Cheers GF.

Looking at DFD it seems the closest thing to a sure thing that has ever been. Although there are a large number of debt recovery firms out there it appeasr that DFD is best placed to deal with regulations that are now being demanded for the industry as a whole. Punters would do well to remember that the Consumer Credit Act is being reviwed at the moment with the likleihood oif licensing for credit companies being tightened up.

In addition as stated before on the board the computer model used by the company is way ahead of its time. The last time the oft published a report in the credit sector dfd shares doubled over a very short perios and I can see them doing the same thing again

I bought 10k worth of sdhares last week and am seriously thinking about buying again very soon as soon as I can get the money together

This ones up again and is on a run.

GF

This does appear to be an interesting company, in that it appears to be responsible.So many of these debt solving oputfits are in the game purely to ensnare the unwary and cause them further heartache at a later date.DFD actually screens its applicants -even guides them to alternate solutions. Eventually there will be an enormous Governmental stink about the activities of so called 'debt solution'outfits and there seems a genuine probability that DFD will emerge if not smelling of roses, then certainly several yards from the sh..heap.

Hilldee, Im sure your right there.

cheers GF.

Having a cracking day. Two on the trot now or is it three, three i think.

GF.

Morning all

I like this company a lot in relation to the way the company works. I work in the advice sector and the biggest problems are debt managemnt compnanies as the vast majority take on evreyone they can and the consumers end up in more and more debt.

I have now invested 16,000 in the compnay and I am already looking at a 1600 profit. I think after xmas the shares are going to be going up a lot more and I am looking at a medium term view of selling between March and April next year.

Pumacat, yup think youve called this one right. Just interested to know why a sell between March/April next year, do you think it will have run out of steam?.

cheers GF.

No not really.

I have been investing in the stockmarket for a little while but over the past 8 months I have become an active trader I suppose.

I now have 2 holdings dfd and cyh for a total of 40k. CYH is my speculative stock whereas dfd is my medium term investment. My investment philosophy is generally time sensitve (ie positive nes flow, results etc) and I just think that at about March April the investment will have grown sufficiently for me to invest in another share. Not very technical but it has worked form me this year as I have manged to increase my initila investment fund from 10K.

However I have only just started using the bulletin boards and its nice to get some feedback from other people.

Back again

I notice that trading volume on this share is up a little bit over the last couple of days. As another rate rise is likely its safe to assume this compnay will benefit massively from other peoples misfortune. I also think that as xmas is coming up this would be an ideal oppotunity for that long awited announcemnt of a tie in with a large bank under a pilot scheme.

What does everyone else think the outlook is?

I have been away for a while and I am very surprised that this share has not attracted a lot more interest. I was also surprised at the recent comment made in Shares maagzine given its previous support for the stock at a higher level than it is at now.

I also disagree with the last analysis by shares magazine.

The level of debt in this current at present is staggering and does not appear to be slowing down. With the proposed tax increases and possible interest rate rise (more likely I think as December sales were not as disastrous as people had been predicting and if my own exeprience is anything to go by the January sales are off to a fine start) then there is fetile ground indeed for a compnay such as debt free direct.

I note that they have been tipped to reach 92p within 12 months but I think they could go higher simpl,y on the basis of new business. It seesm that people are more likely to acknowledge debt problems early as a result of heavy media coverage (ie bbc breakfast pre-christmas) and that must only be a good thing for DFD.

The trading statement was very postive and now the only barrier is the uopcoming EGM. I jnoted however that there was a delayed reaction to what the markets thought of the trading statement but on Friday the shares shot up.

It seesm a pity that not more people are on the this board disucssing the share.

Good trading update recently. Good business model and clearly lots of potential. One thing that concerns me is that as I understand it, DFD makes most of its money when it structures IVA's for clients. Given that the government is keen to take a leaf out of US bankrupcy books (by reducing the stigma of, and making it easier for people to go bankrupt... and then bounce back within a year), does this not mean that people will not bother with IVA's ie they will simply file for bankrupcy ?

Any ideas out there ?

Possibly Pumacat missed the fact that Investors Chronicle also recommended a purchase, thus pushing DFD up by 6p about ten days ago. This is not the first time that Shares Magazine has, suddenly, abandoned a stock that they had previously heavily promoted. About a year ago they were into MEARS and fairly regularly recommended purchases. The fact that Mears went down to 58p didnt persuade 'Shares' to give them a buy rating - but I question why they dont have the courtesy to admit that they might, just might, have been a buy at that price -particularly since Mears now stand at 141p. I have read in these pages that stocks recommended by Inv Chron have, mysteriously, risen PRIOR to the published plug. What such a rise indicates I do not, of course, know. BUT in a country where even respected Judges produce seemingly bizzare findings you can speculate to your hearts content.

Thanks Hilldee I did miss the IC tip but I am glad they made one!

After a little dip the shares seem to be again on a upward trend - certainly more shares than normal appear to have been changing hands for quite a sustained period now

As for the issue about bankruptcy many of dfd clients are middle class middle income people who have overstretched themselves. Most therefore would be houseowners and bankruptcy is not suitable for them.

The other excellent business pratice of dfd is its own self regulation which I think may very well come to the fore after the current review of credit law being undertaken by the government.

I hear the boys at Sky have got a price target on this of 1.35 for this year, but maybe they have got their heads in the clouds!

Nice to see all buys today and also my lamentations about lack of discussions appear to be wrong as well.

Just wondering where the info re sky is gallick?

Just a quick note

egm on the 10th keep your eyes peeled for news

Pumacat

I was looking at an old copy of redsky research, back in about Oct 2003 and in the broker section Sky capital set a price target on DFD of 1.36 since their analyst reckoned that sales of IVA's were going to 'quintuple'. Given the positive trading update there could be a big uplift after results are announced. However the newsflow on this stock is so low that methinks that this could be an in and out job before the share price goes back to sleep after the event!

This is, possibly, the most reputable of the debt re arrangement outfits. It will, as time goes on, make its own news. In any event, the current p/e is academic.Whilst I would balk at 1.36 I can well see the right side of 1.10.

Thanks for the info Gallick

It is disappointing that the shares have not moved much given the positive outlook posted by the compnay. I have no doubt that they will increase significantly in value.

In the past week there has been significant purchases in the stock (I am aware that these shares have significant purchases in thousands rather than tens of thousands) so I cannot imagine that the mm would want to sell at a loss

Just back from a nice break in the lake district.

Glad to see that SHARES have mentioned dfd in a positive light once again (although again they seem to be contradicting themselves to a degree - different authors for the negative comments).

With rate rises on the increase and this pilot scheme around the corner dfd should be on the home straight - hoping to see at least 85p in the next couple of months.

Nice rise on Friday lets hope that continues!

Hoping to hear of the tie up woith the scottish bank in the new financial year - they have now been talking about it for about a year

Donts know if anyone out there is stll interested in this share - broker consensus is 90p by the end of year - I reckon 1+ after results anyone else offer speculation?

when are the results? pumcat.

This share has been suprisingly quiet (on the bb at least). Am I the only person who has invested in this share or what? I know it's the most exciting share in the world, but overall not a bad performer especially considering most of the recent interest rises have been outside the last results period. This should fly on the next results. My friend ,who is a mortgage advisor talks of a lot of the current business being not of new mortgages but of people who are already in the shit and having to remortgage to keep afloat.I appreciate in the end that Cornwall will be particularly badly hit by the whole ...can't believe my house is worth what they say, let's take out the equity , oops we can't afford to repay it scenario, but I'm sure we are not alone.I originally invested in this as my safe investment -- as long as it performed as well as or (hopefully better) than the banks I'd be happy -but I really think you lot are missing out on an opportunity. People are going to the wall whether or not we profit from it. Get in there .Don't miss out.

Hi sand, I am out but you make a very good case for buying. Good luck, what a rotten day for investing.

cheers GF.

Goldfinger What on earth have you invested in ? The sun is still shining where I am. At least for now.

Sounds like you have had a good one, I havent really, well done.

cheers GF,

Sorry , I feel really bad now. I'm sure you will have a great day tomorrow...we both will. Sweet dreams gf. S

Hey thanks for that sand, makes me feel an awfull lot better.

cheers GF.

sandrew64 - I agree with you wholeheartedly. I used to work for a credit card company and these guys are all doing their best to keep DFD in business! I sold half my stake a while back but am hanging in there for at least 1.

I can't help but think if there is another interest rate rise before Xmas, we will hit the 1. mark then.

Fingers crossed! Enjoy the weekend.

And you. Here's to a great week ahead. S

A good tick up today - anyone have any ideas why?

Last years interims were at the end of Oct. This years should be stunning. Didn't realise they were this near or would have topped up.

Thought what the hell and topped up anyway....bound to be well worth it.

Let's hope so! No spare funds this end for topping up but will be keeping eyes and ears open for news.

We've hit 1.00!!!! Let's hope it holds.

queen1
Just had another look on the DFD website.... I think I made a mistake. It looks the accounting period ends on Oct 31. but results aren't released until Jan. So I don't know what is going on ...but I like it!

Me too! Always get a little suspicious with "big" rises not backed up by substantial news as there generally seem to be falls in the SP imminent but I do like the fact that it's broken that psychological 1 barrier!

Would they be about to release a trading statement as it is the end of an accounting period....nothing is showing up in the diary that I can find.

All I can find is a brokers note from Shore Capital on Sept.6th that lists a trading update due for Oct.2004.

Me neither. I guess that must be it as there's only one trading day left in the month which is tomorrow. My hunch is that the SP will drop but it would be great if today's momentum were carried forward....

I rang DFD to clarify position on trading update as nothing released. Spoke to the Finance Director who assured me a trading update would be released in the next week. I'm sure it will be worth the wait.

What did ole hilldee say, on the 18th Feb 04, why he speculated on a price exceeding 110p but said that he would baulk at 136p I am ALWAYS prepared to admit that I was wrong. Maybe the Sky people called it right, back then.

Well, I'm glad to see stabilisation today. Good call to the FD sandrew64. Looking forward to next week's update!

What has happened to the update I was promised????

I think that the FD needs another call and, having just turned 40 sandrew64 (so I hear), there can be no better person to do it: brave, intuitive, adventurous and worldly-wise!!!

Oh no!!!!! I don't know what I was thinking of admitting my age like that...but you are right about one thing I'll have to ring them again tomorrow and find out what's happened to the update.

sandrew64 - you're only as old as the shares that you hold so live life, enjoy and buy DFD! Let us know how the call goes.

queen1
Rang DFD yesterday, no one in the office to speak to me ,were supposed to return my call,but didn't. I'm out this morning,but will try again later today and let you know as soon as possible.

Shame I didn't check the news before my last post.......it's here!!!

Absolutely NO COMMENT from the hoi polloi out there concerning the thought provoking statement issued by DFD this day. 865000 near to or contemplating bakruptcy. How many idiots can this country produce (after all, they should all be learning FAST fron their idiot Government - capable of wasting more money than all rest of the populace put together) But WAIT, there is a company out there dedicated not only to helping the idiots but MAKING MONEY FOR YOU WHILST DOING SO. Maybe the final irony could be that, for a peppercorn rent, our beloved Socialist Governmento should permit DFD to operate from down Greenwich way - where there is a MONUMENT to Government conservation of the public's money.

Thanks sandrew64.

So...tell me guys, what happened to our sp this week. You'd think with the trading update we've had the sp would be at 110-115p and there would be some very positive press coverage or at the very least a mention. DFD themselves admitted to recruitment problems caused by the volume of business. Why are we the only ones to spot the potential in this share???

I'm not too sure. There may be a hint of optimism in the air that interest rates have peaked meaning that perhaps not as many people will be finding themselves in debt as was first thought. On the other hand, if rates remain flat or are even lowered the Great British public will hit the streets, spend on their cards and leave the figure of 1 trillion debt in their wake. Personally I think it's a quality operation providing a service at the right time. Let's hope 115p and more is achieved by Xmas.

Nice bump up again today...this is more like it! Realistically what are we looking at by Christmas....any ideas? Any chance 130p or will this go down when the directors start selling off their holdings as Shares mag said would be happening(Dec. I think was quoted)to enable institutions to buy.

Still looking good. Starting to get excited now...which is a sure sign that it will drop tomorrow!!

I was wrong - excellent! Good write-up in Shares today as well. Any thoughts on SP by Christmas?

Don't know what to think....thought it was going to be an early Xmas at one point today. Surely this has got to slow down and consolidate for a bit.....hasn't it??!! I'm not good at charts and ratios and whatnots, so no help there......who knows ...at the rate this is going....160p+ doesn't look unreasonable.

I asked my friends on the ASC website,many who are very good on the technical analysis side ,for opinions and comments on the future of this sp. Got some interesting responses. The responses are posted on that thread.(ASC)

Thanks, I also have a (very) small holding in ASC but certainly not enough to contribute on that thread compared with the 20-50% heavy hitters (like yourself!) 160p would be lovely and very welcome for the festive season!

Let's hope it's not just an optimists' dream!!

Sandra: I do hope by now that you have had a chance to look at the comment's about this company on the WatsHot site. Meanwhile from a Charting perspective the share is looking a little overbought at current levels. We need to see how far this pullback goes really before plotting projections. It certainly broke out of its trendlines at the 105 level, but the RSI started showing some divergence on Friday last and the MACD is flattening out a little now. Having said that the SP is still very much in a bullish phase and has stayed above it's 50day m.a. for some time, and that takes some doing. If I was pushed I would be inclined to take some profits right now, and watch. Will get back to you on possible SP levels as week develops. Hope that helps and that my comments have not upset anyone. John

Seem to be pretty accurate John - bad day at the office today.

hi goldfinger
like the look of this one
took an interest recently
directors bought 700,000 shares in 1st quarter 04, 60 - 65p
nice uplift already standing now 119p - obviously knew somthing
forcasting 2m profit to march 05 rising to 3m next
will watch for news flow around xmas


keep in touch

regards HUSTLER

He sold months ago , read previous posts.

Any ideas when the main shareholders are cutting back their holdings, I expected an announcement regarding the sell off before now and took my profits out expecting the sp to dip back a bit. Oops!

http://DFD

Think 15th December mentioned somewhere but can't now remember where I read it. I'm still in.

Me too. A nice little rise in time for Chrimbo but more in the New Year would be good!

Let's see what tomorrow brings...I am still in, kept the original holding and looking to top up when possible.

What's happening here!?!

I don't know but I like it!

Merry Christmas sandrew64 and a prosperous and Debt Free Direct New Year!!

Sorry queen1 been away for holidays and just found your message. Hope you had a lovely Christmas and saw the new year in, in fine style.
Aren't we due some results this month? Do we get a Christmas trading update as well?!?

Lucky you! Anywhere nice (daft question I know but a conversation piece nevertheless...)

Christmas was good thanks as was the DFD SP until today - worrying slide ahead of results or just profit takers following the large rises?

Only to Wiltshire visiting friends.Interesting today....buys(and some rather healthy sized ones at that)outweighing sells,yet the price pluments.Profit takers I hope.

Me too. Good to have you back on board. Looking forward to trading e-mails with you as the SP races towards 2!!!

Bad day all round. Are you in BNH and PDX as well? Triple ouch!!!ASC quadruple ouch!!! Can I start the new year over again please?

ps Whatever you do never,ever connect to tesco broadband. Words absolutely fail me as to how useless it is. Constantly disconnects you .....just what you need with a spreadbet on the dow....quintuple ouch....I think I'll go to bed with a bottle of scotch now.....

Oh dear - much ouching happening in the sandrew64 household yesterday! I hope that today is smoother and less painful. Am not in BNH or PDX but am in ASC which seems to have retrenched somewhat too. Perhaps if more people spent the cash that they haven't got on the ASOS site, they'd need the help of DFD to see them right again. Is this a bad thought from me? If so that's one resolution up the spout and it's only the 5th!

Back today with a happier outlook.....so far so good! I expect ASC is hit due to the poor NXT results, could be a good buying opportunity? By the way, like the thought...it works for me!

Well that's a relief - perhaps I'm not the heartless swine that I thought I was!

Rather nasty slide this morning.

Guys what the heck is going on here? This stock was my Darling !!!, but im not too sure now.

It seems to me the investors know there is going to be good news coming out next week so they ve all pocketed the profits causing the big slide with the view of buying them back later at a cheap price when the news is out causing the share price to rise again to prices seen last week.

does anyone have any other ideas.

I'm assuming as all the trades are fairly small, it's a combination of as you suggest scenicroute and other small investors being spooked by the price slipping back. Let's face it, it's not something we see very often with this one. If we are right it's a marvellous buying opportunity and I should think this will be taken advantage of and hopefully the price will rebound at least somewhat by the end of the day.

IMHO,DYOR,etc,etc

Gooday ! I agree......

The General feeling is, a good set of results due next week in line with brokers forcasts. My feeling is the share price should bounce back to 1.50++++ by the end of next week At least thats what I would like to see.

So would I but last two days have been a little unnerving to say the least. Ho hum.

Just caught up with your post-Xmas posts - which suddenbly and ominously ceased on 6th Jan. Don't run out on me now just when it's geting interesting.

So, who topped up at 130 and who copped out? Whither next?

Who's still in? I'm am on DFD and ASC. Hence my interest in your contributions to the debate.

Speak to me someone!

Hello Lukan,
I'm still here and I think most of us still are. However, there are now several threads going so people seemed to stop posting on this one.

I'm also still in but on a reduced basis. SP seems to be treading water at present until UK plc (consumer division) starts spending heavily again.

From an article in the FT on Sat:
"Watch out for news of a customer tie-up with HBOS,which could reduce DFD's reliance on satellite TV advertising to recruit customers".

Time to top up perhaps?

No cash.....perhaps I could get a loan! From HBOS!!

Yeah...haven't they got a sale on!

Not sure if you have seen the Accuma thread but DFD looks positively expensive against ACG on a low forward P/E of 8. A switch over may be justified.

cheers GF.

hi gf just got in from pub
this has been a quiet thread
sat in on this one from dec 04
held it's own in general against the savage correction
on aim stocks down 18% in last couple of months
note your comments, but with record debt levels
i still give it a chance. the market not the stock
still gives me cause for concern.
this is a repeat of last year may through sept
is not not an easy time for small caps
be interested to know your view of the bottom
as at the moment i can't call it
hope it's not below 900
regards HUSTLER

Having great difficulty calling it myself Hustler. Just watching day by day. In a way its a releif in that I dont have to keep my eye on the momentum movers all the time. But I am sure I will soon get bored and want that market back. Good luck.

cheers GF. PS, there is a case for keeping any on the Blue Chips after today and in the last few days, you never know, is it their time?. Stranger things have happened.

respect what you say gf
but the yanks are off the wall at present
and for right or wrong we still follow
the dow and nas generally speaking over time
good to see them up tonight
hope we move up tomorrow in line however
if aim is battered again
will seriously have to concider moving to cash
and take a back seat for a while
all the best
HUSTLER

Looking good so far today, up 6%!

Yeah! Any idea why? One of the tip sheets I read recently recommeded sell at 150p. Glad I followed my own advice and added!

In the current macro cllimate and with their management and ever growing hit rate the PEG looks very good for the next 2 years at least. They might even start paying dividends!

sd

Not sure stockdog, apart from a continuing debt problem but I like it and 200p is now withing touching distance!

Good looking set of results today (which I have not fully studied yet) sending the SP up 4%. Plenty more growth to come to take care of the somewhat heady PE of 64!

sd

Stockdog - and the possibility of a maiden dividend which will please many. 200p by end of week?

Come on 2!!!

Yes!!!!!

You know, I'm really surprised that DFD isn't on more peoples' radar. If there's one growth business in the UK it's servicing consumer debt. Speculative oil stocks may or may not come good, IT could or could not be the next big thing but consumer debt is here, now, and growing. And DFD is in pole position to benefit by providing profitable but customer-friendly solutions. And the sp has increased 6-fold in 2 years. WAKE UP EVERYONE!!!

There she blows, Queen, 2 and plenty more to come over the next year or so I reckon looking at prospective growth and talk of dividends with a PEG of 2006 0.40 and 2007 0.33

Very nice little push north of 4.5% so far today. Anyone know why this might be?

Yeah - not sure quite why, except economic circs probably justify it, but I'm not complaining that it's holding its own against the market reaction to London's explosions today.

Sorry to post off topic,

Take a look at recenly listed on AIM (22/06/05) "Debtmatters (DEBT)",
(in same sector as DebtFreeDirect(DFD) and Accuma(ACG)).




Came out with excellent news yesterday (just a snippet of the best parts below):

RNS Number:5225O
Debtmatters Group PLC
06 July 2005


Debtmatters Group plc

(the "Group" or the "Company")

Key Appointments

IVA caseload continues to grow as key appointments are made

The Board of Debtmatters Group plc is pleased to announce that it has appointed
two Insolvency Practitioners (IPs) to underpin the rapid growth of the Company's
Individual Voluntary Arrangement (IVA) business.

These appointments are significant for the Group, which will now employ four
IPs, and exceeds the Company's expectation at the time of its recent flotation
of employing just one additional IP during the current financial year.

(below is the best part):

"the Company is pleased to announce continued growth in its IVA caseload. During the quarter ending 30 June 2005, IVAs approved by creditors averaged 151 per month, representing an 84% increase on the first quarter of 2005. This result has been achieved without any material increase in the cost associated with IVA case acquisition."

And also (note- "dramatic growth"):

"Our recent flotation and fund raising on AIM now provide the business with the resources to roll out our targeted marketing of Debtmatters' services and build upon the dramatic growth of our IVA business."



Full article can be found here:

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200507060700015225O.html

Saw that - how do they compare in turnover with DFD. Are they a serious threat, or just a demonstration how big and fast-growing the market for both their services is? How much does a potential customer think about cost competition when falling into the arms of a saviour, especially as they do not pay the bill - the creditors do, by which time the debtor has engaged the services of either DFD or DEBT?

What are the prospects for consolidation within the sector? There's old-fashioned doorstep lender Provident Financial hovering just outside the FTSE100 who could snap either up - unless they join forces since their product is most similar of the three.

DFD seems set on a couple of years of "dramatic growth" itself. Interesting to see how they fare against each other.

sd

DFD has had a terrific run up since end of April low (when I double my holding, clever dog!) - up 46% in 10 weeks during which time it posted terrific accounts for year to 30th April. Its PEG values are terrific for the next two years, but how much higher can it climb?

sd

Hi Stockdog
Congrats for the timing, agree stats still look
good for the future and it's on a roll.
would like to see 240 - 250 in the next month or so.
All the best
HUSTLER

I'll see you there, Hustler!

Is this the top for now?

Recent vertical rise has stalled, dropping back to 209.5 having hit the top edge of the Bollinger Band

Stochastic and Relative Strength both call a top - MACD may be about to

However, very low and reducing volume since its recent peak makes these indicators less intense.

Probably due a retracement - but how far - at least 15% off the top, so could buy back in later.

Any views?

sd

Guys, I'm out of these for now. I bought at 29p and sold a tranche at 64p, 125p and then the balance at 2. I still feel that there is more to come later on down the line and they're going back on my watch-list but for now there's better prospects elsewhere. It's been a great run, thanks DFD.....

queen1 - me too, sold at 207 for a good profit, just feeling they were overbought and I was glad I had when the BoE reduced interest rates - even though the press is still full of stories about personal bankruptcies and PVA's rising at alarming rates.

Lovely company, keeping it on my watch list to buy back in at the bottom of the next cycle (or should that be psychle!)

sd

Buy, say "Investors Chronicle" 2/012/05

Hindsight is a wonderful thing! My last post looks pretty silly now, have to admit! sp 251.50p as I write

sd

stockdog: my canine friend. Unusual that you called this wrong - proves you're not perfect in logic terms, though. Are you back in? Have been looking closely at DFD and DEBT in light of Shares enthusiasm. Decided that DEBT is the better buy given that they are growing more rapidly from a smaller, because later, base. market appears to be growing at annual rate of 100%. DFD is keeping pace with that at just under 20% of market whilst DEBT may be +50% against the market. Suggest the race is on as to which reaches 5 first. That is reasonable target given growth rates. Have opened thread on DEBT and would appreciate your comments.

Eric

Eric - DFD is a perfect Jim Slater model as it happens - what a fool for not reading his book until after I'd sold. All goes to show, if it ain't broke don't sell it (err . . . or something). No I never got back in and have to much regret to do so now (again aw rong decision possibly).

Agree DEBT would look interesting at its current level - can they enter the market against DFD successfully? Mind you the marlket is growing rapidly all the time and we haven 't seen anything like the worst of it yet in terms of bankruptcies etc. I haven't run my ruler over them, but the chart looks very promising. Might take a look.

Looked at CLEA also, but visibility of earnings versus cost base does not make sense yet - will keep an eye on it. The chart with 20/40dma superimposed looks like an early design of where to hang the bunting on a steamer!

Am now concentrating my efforts on Jim Slater paradigm growth companies, which at least has the advantage of giving me a way of limiting my interests. For example looked at RHPSG tip IMR, which is terrific, except it is loaded with debt and porpped up by friends who are also providing a lot of the business. Also CEO ran Tiphook which I seem to remember was meteoric in the 80's before going belly up. Another one for the watch list for when the results show better gearing and some proof of profitability pudding.

Still fully invested in DGT, of course and way over invested in SEO which mercifully seems to have turned a bit of a corner today - we'll see.

Nice to chat.
sd

Thanks sd. Very interesting to compare DFD, DEBT and CLEA. DFD is now very well-established, have a proven business model and growing consistently with the amrket. DEBT is a year or more behind DFD but gaining market share. CLEA is a veery early stage punt but could have terrific potential. Very roughly: 20:10:1 cap. Have gone for DEBT on the basis that there is still more action on the sp to catch up with DFD. Clearly, this sector is bang up Slater's street and likely to remain so for quite some time. A market doubling each year is bound to attract newcomers but DFD are very well established and DEBT becoming so. I like CLEA's internet based model but this might be easiest to replicate and I wonder whether the quality of business (and its unit value) is as good. From the sector selection standpoint this appears a no-brainer: for sheep rather than dogs?

Eric

we'll have a race!! I've got 80000 CLEA so hope I'll win on %. look at EPY and BTX Eric they're winners too I think.

moneyplus: I recall you were the leading filly is the ASOS challenge! Actually, I am not betting DEBT against CLEA, only DFD and that's primarily because DFD is the more mature company. Easier to grow more quickly from a smaller base although not sure DFD growth has ever been as dramatic as that of DEBT. But if I switch the argument to CLEA then the boot is on the other foot. My first reading is that a CLEA breakthrough may not be certain, although not sure why not; on the other hand, or foot, that breakthrough could be much more dramatic as it is on the market at an earlier stage. May have a nibble!

Eric

Personal debt in the UK rises by 1 million every four minutes.
(quote from Invocas.com website)

Results to be announced next Tuesday.
Could be one of the better performing stocks over a traditionally quiet period for the market.

;o)

Debt free is also expanding to Australia.

a total overreaction in this sector due to one of the smaller players CLEA having a 'system failure',that has disrupted its smooth progress. Debt Matters have even gone to press stating that they have no reason for their share price being depressed and they have had their best month yet in September. Hoped for a positive tick up today after all the press comment on rising bankrupcy rates over the weekend - hey ho see what tm brings - any news due from ACG SOON????

I chose today as a good day to top up at somewhat less than my original investment.

Story's still the same, PEG, margin, ROCE, macro-econimoc environment - all lovely. Why would we want a share to rise in price while we are still buying it. I want it to be good and fat in more than 10 years time.

Would like rather more than Mr Prideaux's modest holding amongst the directors, but in these days of giveaway share options (which I assume they all have without having checked??) what can you do?

Chart closing above its previous low and the RNS confirming no known reason for the fall gives me confidence enough that we have hit bottom and should now work our way back to new highs by whenever. This has a 2 year growth story - who cares exactly when it matures.

sd

ACG results on 31st March - should hopefully be good - should see a turnaround in this sector - just shows how much hype in values though

AM

Well, I got that wrong. THought m=by midday I'd had a lucky escape, but not liking the look of further falls during the day. Some good buys towards close. Who knows why or where it will stop.

Augustman - hoping for some comfort a little sooner than end March 2007!! Thanks all the same.

Sugar!!!!!!!!!!!!.....meant 31st October sd .......plus dets.co.uk just announced results to be on 24th.....smaller player but hopefully steady.....see dfd reported that it expects record levels of IVA'S in coming months.....a turn we hope!!!!

DFD has been going downhill because there has been a surprise drop in IVAs, as mentioned in the Investors Chronicles this week. Recent headline news on record bankruptcy has not helped DFD.

DFD has said the drop represents a week's worth of business lost whilst moving to bigger offices to accommodate more business for the future - no evidence that volume of IVA's have reduced in the market as a whole (other than, if DFD isn't there to do them, there may be an actual reduction in that restricted period). Journo's needing bad news to sell their rags IMHO.

The drop across the sector is worrying, admittedly, but I cannot see the fundamentals saying enything but increasing profits as we continue witht he interest rate cycle - predicted to keep rising by 0.25% every c. 3 months over the course of next year.

Sector has had a pullback, but recent comments from managements have all been positive... good results, controlled growth, all very cash generative.

- wouldnt be surprised to see some consolidation here as 1) main players look to increase capacity; and 2) outside (private equity?) buyers see the potential for growth and cash returns.

- DFD now into new premises - should allow growth to reaccelerate; but better play in sector in my view is DEBT - same growth, but on HALF the earnings multiple for next year.

Matt - I was in DFD early (sold far too early) and am now in DEBT, since I agree of the top 4 (DFD, DEBT, DETS, ACG) they have the best overall rating/security IMHO.

We just have to wait patiently for this spate of bad market sentiment to pass. They can't argue with the numbers much, for long, eventually!

Closed down 31p on news below....


Debt Free Direct falls short of forecast
MoneyAM
Debt Free Direct Group, the debt advice firm, said that adjusted first-half pretax profits more than doubled to 4.26m from 1.86m in the first half of 2005.

The result was below a consensus analyst forecast by the company of 4.65m.

First half turnover rose to 12.24m, up 91% from 6.43m in the first half of 2005.

Gross profit rose to 9.97m from 4.74m in the first half of 2005.

Earnings per share rose 146% to 7.66p from 3.11p in 2005.

The company reiterated that it had arranged 536 IVAs per month in the first half of the year, up from 266 IVAs per month a year ago.

Looking ahead, Debt Free Direct said that it anticipated full-year profits for the financial year to end-April 2007 to 'comfortably meet expectations.'

These have got to be worth a look on the back of that interest rate hike.

I bought in last week and am up 10% and have just added, I think this is gonna be one busy company in coming months

dyor........... Rob

looking strong again today fella's

dont miss out!

Like this co but think DETS has more upside.

This is a falling knife today...down 55p now

DETS is also a falling knife today down 16p, most be some news annouced will try to find out.

See my post on the DEBT thread - more serious than mere sentiment this time.

DFD & Accuma Group both issued profit warnings, saying profits would be below full year forecast. Accuma fell 117p to 105p. They are experencing more companies chasing the IVA market.

I think the biigest problem here is the annoncement that there is to be a Charity set up to provide IVA's. I read somewhere that dfd makes an average of 7,000 per client. Bit of a no brainer really, if your in financial straits and a charity is going to sort it for next to nothing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wish I had sold earlier in the week and held onto a 15% gain, never mind

From the trading update:

Over the last quarter, we have been challenged by two external factors; creditor
posturing and increased advertising from our competitors. Both areas are
discussed in more detail below.

The combined impact of these two factors will make it challenging to fully
achieve market expectations for the FY 2007. We do, however, believe that market
expectations for FY2008 are entirely realistic.

How can a Company say that it will be challenging to fully achieve market expectations for 2007 yet the expectations for 2008 be entirely realistic ?

Expect another markdown on Monday morning and a very long time for confidence to return.

Ian

A policing body for the controversial IVA industry will be formally launched next month in a move likely to put further pressure on profits of companies in the sector

The gloss gets further taken off? Might be time to leave this sector after a good run over 2-3 years?

This is a killer...all profits erased within 2 days.

I sold on friday and was worried all weekend that I had been trigger happy, not now

rob

u r very lucky, rob

The ridiculous wording of the trading update after hours on Friday has taken it's toll. Interesting to note that the update from DETS this morning has been received much more favourably.

Ian

Debt Free Direct warns meeting 2006-07 market forecasts will be 'challenging'
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Debt Free Direct Group PLC (DFD) has warned that meeting market forecasts for full-year 2006-07 will be 'challenging' due to increased advertising by rivals and comments by creditors.

DFD said it had brought forward its third quarter trading statement after the badly received update by Accuma Group earlier today.

However, DFD said it believes that market expectations for 2007-08 are 'entirely realistic.'

DFD said its advertising performance in November and December showed signs of reduced response rates and January has been weaker than expected, results it put down to 'a dramatic increase in competitor advertising.'

The group has subsequently increased advertising spend to maintain volumes, 'albeit at a higher cost of acquisition.'

However, given the lead time in placing advertising, DFD said it will not be possible to place sufficient advertising to maintain the forecast call volumes in February.

DFD also said that creditor comment in recent months has impacted on confidence in the valuation of IVA stocks, adding that changing creditor criteria for acceptance of an IVA is casing cases to fail earlier in the process.

DFD forecast relations with creditors improving in the future.

newsdesk@afxnews.com

Substitute "terrible" for "challenging"

Looks like DFD is going back to 400p soon...

You sure, hlyeo98?

Big damage done now

Debt Free Direct Group PLC
06 March 2007


6 March 2007


DEBT FREE DIRECT GROUP PLC

TRADING UPDATE



Debt Free Direct Group (DFD), the leading debt advice and solutions company,
today provides a trading update.

In our recent trading update, dated 26 January 2007, we highlighted our
expectation that the final quarter of FY07 would be challenging, which might
make achieving market expectations difficult. We are now in a position to
quantify the impact on profits in FY07 of increased advertising costs and lower
call volumes, together with creditor concerns.

Our confidence in achieving market expectations for FY08 remains unchanged.

Advertising performance

The deterioration in advertising performance continued in February 2007. It is
not yet clear whether this was a result of:

- increased competitor advertising, or

- lower consumer confidence in the IVA solution arising from the tone of press
reporting generated by ongoing creditor concerns

With regard to competitor advertising, we have been encouraged by the
Advertising Standards Authority response to the highlighting of misleading and
untruthful IVA adverts. As a consequence, in the longer term we anticipate that
the IVA advertising market will not remain as competitive as it is currently.

New lead generation source

Notwithstanding the above, as part of its continuing strategy to reduce
acquisition costs, DFD has entered into a 2 year agreement with an established
money advice organisation for the exclusive generation of leads. Those leads
will cover the complete range of debt solutions (including IVAs, DMPs, Trust
Deeds, mortgages and loans). This business is currently generating significant
numbers of leads per month (around 10% of DFD's existing volumes) and
anticipates further growth over the period of the agreement. Whilst this
arrangement will have little impact on the current financial year, it will
benefit future periods significantly.

New IVA case generation

We now anticipate new case numbers for March and April being around 600 new IVA
cases per month (counting joint cases = 1).


Overall DFD Group

Debt Free Direct has made significant progress in FY07. Market expectations for
FY07 were originally at 8 million (adjusted PBT) and were subsequently upgraded
twice, with the consensus moving to adjusted PBT of 11 million.

Since our trading update in January 2007, the consensus has been revised.
However, we believe that the outcome for FY07 will be approximately 10-15% below
the current market consensus range (9.7 million to 10.3 million adjusted PBT).

Looking ahead, whilst we may be impacted by higher advertising costs (and lower
response rates), the beneficial impact of the new lead source and the increase
in our non IVA revenue per call mean that advertising cost per IVA can increase
significantly without impacting overall profitability. As a consequence, our
confidence in achieving market expectations for FY08 remains unchanged.

Enquiries:

Debt Free Direct Group plc
Andrew Redmond, Chief Executive Officer 0845 296 0100
Paul Latham, Finance Director 0845 296 0200

Numis Securities
Iain McDonald 020 7776 1500
Lee Aston

Financial Dynamics
Ed Gascoigne-Pees 020 7269 7132
Nick Henderson 020 7269 7114


Notes

Debt Free Direct helps individuals find the best solution to their debt
problems, based upon an analysis of their particular financial circumstances.
Financial information on an individual is processed through a computer model
(the Best Advice Model) developed by Debt Free Direct in order to recommend a
solution suitable for that individual's particular financial circumstances. The
solutions offered range from basic advice, such as simply destroying credit
cards and curbing unnecessary expenditure, to the following solutions:

consolidation loan
re-mortgage
informal arrangement
individual voluntary arrangement (IVA)
bankruptcy

Debt Free Direct is unique in the marketplace in that, unlike most of its
competitors who sell specific products, Debt Free Direct looks to provide the
best advice to the consumer and recommends them the most appropriate service.

Debt Free Direct is based in Chorley, Lancashire, and was admitted to AIM in
December 2002

Dow plunges 387 on subprime concerns - AFX


NEW YORK (AP) - Wall Street plunged again Thursday after a French bank said it was freezing three funds that invested in U.S. subprime mortgages because it was unable to properly value their assets. The Dow Jones industrials extended its series of triple-digit swings, this time falling more than 380 points.

The announcement by BNP Paribas raised the specter of a widening impact of U.S. credit market problems. The idea that anyone -- institutions, investors, companies, individuals -- can't get money when they need it unnerved a stock market that has suffered through weeks of volatility triggered by concerns about tight credit and bad subprime mortgages.

A move by the European Central Bank to provide more cash to money markets intensified Wall Street's angst. Although the bank's loan of more than $130 billion in overnight funds to banks at a low rate of 4 percent was intended to calm investors, Wall Street saw it as confirmation of the credit markets' problems. It was the ECB's biggest injection ever.

The Federal Reserve added a larger-than-normal $24 billion in temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system.

The concerns that arose in Europe and spilled onto Wall Street underscored the potential worldwide ramifications of an implosion of some subprime loans and perhaps also weakened arguments that strength in the global economy could help keep profit growth going in the U.S. among large companies that do business overseas.

The ECB's injection of money into the system is an unprecedented move, said Joseph V. Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Ryan Beck & Co., adding that it shows that problems in subprime lending are, in fact, spilling into the general economy.

Fairpoint sees FY charge of 500,000 stg on sale of Australian business UPDATE
AFX

(adds analyst comment; background on Fairpoint)

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Debt Adviser Fairpoint Group PLC, formerly known as Debt Free Direct, said it sees a full-year charge of 500,000 stg due to the disposal of its Australian business saying it would have remained cash negative throughout 2008 and would not have generated significant profit for several years.

The company, in a trading update, said it has secured a five-year revolving credit facility of 16 mln stg to replace existing funding and provide additional funds.

Fairpoint sees FY charge of 500,000 stg on sale of Australian business UPDATE
AFX

(adds analyst comment; background on Fairpoint)

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Debt Adviser Fairpoint Group PLC, formerly known as Debt Free Direct, said it sees a full-year charge of 500,000 stg due to the disposal of its Australian business saying it would have remained cash negative throughout 2008 and would not have generated significant profit for several years.

The company, in a trading update, said it has secured a five-year revolving credit facility of 16 mln stg to replace existing funding and provide additional funds.