Premarket Futures 23rd Oct

FTSE -38

DAX -29

DOW +62

S&P -7.9

Nasdaq -19.5

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News:	Sorry Your browser is not java capable
US Stocks fell sharply after earnings and forecasts from Merck, JP Morgan and Amazon. Tomorrow is a monster day on Wall street with Microsoft being the most significant earnings of the week. Aviva Britain's largest insurer released 9 month life and pensions sales below expectations but said there were signs of a recovery. New business sales were 1.745 billion pounds compared with 1.746 billion last year and analysts estimate of 1.788 billion. Profit margins on the new business were 25 percent up from 23.8 percent. Marconi telecoms said Q2 sales grew 6 percent on the preceding quarter as it warned of tough trading conditions in the third quarter. Sales in the three months to September 30 stood at 389 million pounds down from 514 million last year. AstraZeneca figures at 10am. Lloyds: Australia & New Zealand Banking Group is close to deciding whether to buy the NZ unit and could be announced as early as Friday. Rolls-Royce "The Group confirms that current trading is consistent with existing guidance," it said in a statement.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Amvescap (Q3) AstraZeneca (Q3 GMT 10:00) PBT 720-1000m exp. Aviva (Q3) New Business 1.8bn exp. Marconi (Q2), Shell (Q3) PBT $3.25bn exp.	Dow Chemicals, Applied Micro Circuits,  Bristol Myers, Xerox (Q3), Colgate Palmolive (Q3) Goodyear (Q3), Medimmune (Q3), Microsoft (Q1), NCR (Q3), Reebok (Q1), Schering (Q3) 13:30 US weekly jobless claims, 383k exp.	HVB Group, Renault, Lafarge, Volvo

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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THU FTSE PP

R2 4397
R1 4341
PP 4303
S1 4248
S2 4210

Close was below Wed S3 level after gaining "8.4pts in the auction! Close was above the 61.9% FIB at 4275 and just above the 3year downtrend! If DJ can regain and hold above 9650 tonight I would be looking for ftse to test 4300/310, maybe our old friend 330 may be obtainable:) Looking to sell rallies rather than buy dips now IMHO!
edit-lower Trendline at 4265/upper 4310/ 3yr 4275!





Updated 10/22 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 10/23
UP Above 9,675
DN Below 9,575

Sharp Decline
Dow breaks 9,740, trades sharply lower.

From prior commentary, "...The index clearly stayed within the range boundaries and may make another pass down within the range tomorrow. A break below 9,740 will likely spark such a move tomorrow..."
The Dow reversed down off the upper boundary of the sloping range today and broke below 9,740, which sparked a significant decline to the Close, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The Dow closed the day at the session lows, losing 149 points for the session.

Looking at the Daily Chart shows that the Dow has indeed begun a reversal off the major upper trend line, which is something we were watching for. Clearly, the downmove could last until the lower boundary of the channel is reached at around the 9,400 area.

Since the index took a sharp drop today, we expect the Dow to consolidate at the lows for perhaps a session or two before another primary move is seen. A consolidation at the lows will indicate further weakness in the near term.

The index has formed a trend line across the highs of today's downmove, which we will watch tomorrow. An upside break of the line at 9,620 could spark a moderate reversal (reaction rally) tomorrow. If we see a break through 9,650 - that would indicate greater strength and true 'recovery' potential. Our expectation is to see a range form, and then a continued move lower.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart from 9,580 to 9,620. Watch this range for a break to indicate direction at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short this morning at 9,641and are still in the position. We will keep stops at the entry for tomorrow's market and will stay Short below 9,575. We will look to enter Longs above 9,675, with 10 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ took a sizeable gap to the downside at the Open, while the S&P sold off sharply alongside the rest. Watch the tight consolidations that have formed at the lows for direction tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow declined sharply today and ended the day at the session lows. The index is consolidating at the lows, but look for the index to expand the consolidation tomorrow, as the index looks to determine direction.


stockcharts
10/22: So far so good, as this is looking like a 3rd wave.
9700 is now a key level to the upside, and any rally that breaches that level is a warning that this is an ABC corrective move down.
Note that a sloppy advance similar to the recent move up from 9700 should be allowed to run up to 9800 because odds favor it being a wave 2 of the larger 3.
Based on the pattern so far, an ideal scenario is a decline from here that finishes off at or below 9200.
From that point, a sloppy rally similar to the above mentioned one (but on a larger scale) would represent an excellent conservative short position.
If that is what is starting to play out here, expect early sideways/up action tomorrow (wave 2 of iii) followed by more downside late in the day.
Sentiment appears to have peaked as well with all the comments today about how the earnings were good, but didn't beat by as much as expected.
Or 'future projections were weak' and the like.
Same old 'sell on the news' excuses. When the market starts going down despite good news it usually isn't a bullish omen.

Good morning all.

Morning all, tin hats on

Morning all,

Did what I've never done before, sold everything in my nominee accounts (This years existing profits will easily cover losses) and will wait dust to settle.
- Decided not to take any chances!

Market has lost direction at the moment. Sitting on my hands, strangely enough I lost money on a short this morning and gained on a long with Aviva ;-)

Well done LW

Shell's results haven't pleased the market.
I'd been waiting to get in below 380p (now 372p) but can't pull the trigger :-(

Closing Shorts.

Croc:
Closing Shorts. Do you reckon there is going to be rebound after the floor has been hammered.I think so as i have closed all my shorts except for one as escape route if need to get out.
Btw this is on the DOw

rgds
zarif

I think the market is going to be very unstable for a while until the panic stop's and people stop and think.

What I don't understand is why it's such a big deal the interest rates nearly went up! (Even actually go up shouldn't really make a difference!) It wasn't a big deal when they went down!

I agree LW after all we are facing a potential quarter rise not 5 or 6 percentages points rise! There seems an element of panic in it all. Well I'm going to buy into a couple who have lost ground over the last couple of days but are fair divi. payers and at good prices now to buy.
Be lucky people!

Made a few points on that rally and now closed as it seems to be running out of steam

croc:
same here closed the longs that i put on before and closed off in positive.
Took out another short in addition

rgds
zarif

Have a feeling we may be on the edge of a cliff. Market looks very jittery.

United Kingdom Calendar  20th - 24th October	United States  (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT)
Autonomy (Q3) BHP Billiton (AGM) WPP(Q3) 09:30 Q3 preliminary GDP q/q 0.6%, y/y 2.0% prev. 09:30 Sep retail sales m/m, y/y 0.2%, 3.8% exp.	Brunswick	France Telecom, SwedbankEssilor F (Q3) Renault F (Q3) Royal Dutch Petroleum NL (Q3) Syngenta CH (Q3), Volvo S (Q3) Wanadoo F (Q3). Web.de D (Q3) 10:00 EMU current account NSA 1.28 prev.

For tomorrow

I'm going to do a lot of homework over the next couple of weeks, OK maybe days (making sure the silly period is over) and then start buying again.

Seems there's some slight lifting going on generally in the FTSE 250 the falls today may not be as bad as yesterday if this continues....

Tommorrow & next week will be interesting, especially any company reporting between now and then. It could be good to watch the reactions if the reporting is good or bad.

Oh Eeck...Alterian are reporting on Monday or Tuesday supposedly and as much as I would LOVE to see a really healthy report, full of statements like "we are now in profit.." I have a feeling even hoping for such news could be akin to being a can short of a six pack.....But I remain an optimist!

lol

Stockbunny - please use EPIC's - I seem to have joined the don't know the names of companies or what they do but can recognise the EPIC!

Little Woman - yes I will try to remember to use the Epic codes - unfortunately
I work t'other way round, my memory is lousy for remembering the codes
(giggle!) but I'll try....

Just realised that ULVR is due to produce results & go ex divi in less than 2 weeks and the shares are quite low - so jumped in and bought a few. If it goes up more than the divi is worth between now & then, I shall sell.

LOL - Guess what I did this AM...???!! Yes caught the same thought thread as you did this afternoon and bought a few ULVR - report date Mon/Tues next week?Seems ex-div due around the 5th Nov and record date appears to be 6th Nov (bit quick..?) anyway pay out looks like Dec. so a nice boost before Xmas for the coffers!!!!! Guess Little Woman and the Bunny struck in unison today!!!

LOL - but you kept your thoughts to yourself! I suppose you got yours at rock bottom, whereas I got mine as they started to rise.

What are your views on the dow 4 today.
Yes the obvoius is a DOW-ner but what is going to be the bottom floor for today.
9470 dec dow possible???
rgds
zarif

Sorry, but I like actual shares rather than index's. (You had to ask so :o)) The only thing I can say, is that people are far more optomistic in the US, and will support their market even if it's not warrented. With IRAQ problems draining on the American economy, the govt are going to want to support US companies. The trouble is the companies are not doing as well as people think, so anything can happen............ and will.......

Just creamed the dow at 9469 (opened at 9588) 119pts at 20/pt made 2380 nett on the S/betting.
Definitely WOW on the DOW and feeling GReat!!!!!
Yipeee!!!!!!
rgds
zarif

Wow!! Well done Zarif
Have a good weekend all
David

Didn't get them as low as I would have liked - 492.4p - but it was good enough. Sorry should have shared the thought.....Forgive me LW!!!

- just under what I paid - 492.9 - you are forgiven as long as you don't forget next time!

Just mention that I was actually looking at BAA, when I came across ULVR! (I must admit I am tempted to hold on to them as they actually have quite a good chance to make a lot of money longer term.....)

This year I've been trying to make 5-10% in 1- 21 days, and been able to do a lot of it. But I miss the 200% in 6-9 months, and sitting back and just watching.

Little woman - Champers 4 u from me in the tea room - I needed camomile to steady my nerves and a straight jacket.
thanks for your support
rgds
zarif

Little Woman - Ihave been re-looking at GET (Geest)
I bought some end of Jan and sold in the Summer with a beautiful profit - bought in at 346p sold at 497p

Now OK the price is not that low now but if it edges lower than it is now - if we get another market 'dip' or the sector falls for some reason I may be tempted to buy in again.

Even currently there appears to be a small profit based on the price that it did achieve in the summer - over 500p at one point.

Divi is good - recent news has been good, business no doubt was brisk in the summer for prep'd salads etc and next set of figs. will include that period.
Anyway at this point its only a thought, but I did promise to share....

Only thing is I could do with landing a 'sale' first elsewhere before I invest further!

Thanks for sharing - but you're on the wrong thread! It's Moday today :o)