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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 3rd November (SBRY)
Crocodile - 02 Nov 2003 13:29
| Premarket Futures 23rd Oct | FTSE +2 | DAX +2 | DOW +19 | S&P -0.5 | Nasdaq +2 |
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Thus Group telecoms reported a near doubling in first half underlying earnings, in line with expectations, and said it was on track to hit full-year earnings and sales targets. Earnings rose to 20.6 million pounds from 10.9 million one year before and six months turnover climbed by 10 percent to 157.5 million pounds Unilever said it had agreed to sell its Ambrosia and Brown & Polson units as it continues to cut the number of brands to restore profit margins Ebookers Online travel firm made a Q3 profit of 1.3 million pounds against a 0.8 million pounds loss a year earlier and said it had seen strong trading in October. Turnover rose 98 percent to 18.2 million pounds Canary Wharf is now in final talks with Morgan Stanley for a bid worth 255p |
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ebookers (Q3), Ryanair (I), Thus Group (I), SurfControl (I) Pz Cussons (AGM) Manufacturing sector PMI (09:30) CBI monthly distributive trades (11:00) |
Kellogg Q3 15:00 Construction Spending 15:00 ISM Index 17:00 Auto Sales 17:00 Truck Sales |
Dyckerhoff D Q3 HeidelbergCement D |
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Crocodile - 02 Nov 2003 13:29 - 2 of 24
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ebookers (Q3), Ryanair (I), Thus Group (I), SurfControl (I) Pz Cussons (AGM) Manufacturing sector PMI (09:30) CBI monthly distributive trades (11:00) |
Kellogg Q3 15:00 Construction Spending 15:00 ISM Index 17:00 Auto Sales 17:00 Truck Sales |
Dyckerhoff D Q3 HeidelbergCement D | ||||||
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Carphone Warehouse (I), Kewill Systems (I) Marks & Spencer (I), Scottish Power (Q2) Tyco International (Q4), Minorplanet (F), Danka Business (I)Henderson Euro Trust (AGM), McBride (AGM) A&J Mucklow (AGM), Redrow (AGM), Clinton Cards (EGM) 24th Oil and Money Conference |
Clear Channel Comms Q3 Gillette Q3 MBIA Q3 Prudential Financial Q3 |
Credit Suisse CH Q3, Depfa Bank D Q3 Fresenius Medical Care D Q3 Ixos Software D Q1, Pfeiffer Vacuum Tech D Q3 Singulus Technologies D Q3 Suess Microtec D Q3 | ||||||
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AVEVA Group (I), Shanks (I), Big Yellow Group (I), Electrocomponents (I), FirstGroup (I), MFI Furniture (I), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (Q3), Pilkington (I), Shire Pharmaceuticals (Q3), Volex (I), Yates (I), Fenner (F), Netb2b2 (F)Goodwin (AGM), Redrow (AGM), Sygen International (AGM) JP Morgan Fleming Mid (AGM) Sept industrial/manufacturing (0930) CBI Small and medium enterprises survey (11:00) NIESR GDP estimate (13:00) Bank of England MPC meeting |
Cisco Q1, Qualcomm Q4 Watson Pharmaceuticals Q3 15:00 Factory Orders 15:00 ISM Services |
Accor F Q3 Adidas-Salomon D Q3 Douglas Holding D Q3 Hugo Boss D Q3 LION Bioscience D Q2 | ||||||
Ex Dividend: Aga Foodservice Group Plc 2.2, Alexandra Plc 1.7, Austin Reed Group Plc 2.5, Beazley Group PLC 0.25, Bloomsbury Publishing Plc 0.474, Chloride Group 0.8, Collins Stewart Tullett PLC 2.5, DFS Furniture Plc 17, European Motor Holdings Plc 3.4, Finsbury Food Group PLC 1, Game Group Plc 0.5, Giardino Group Plc 1.9, Hunting Plc 1.25, Intertek Group PLC 2.9, Jennings Brothers Plc 2.4, Johnston Group Plc 5.25, Laird Group Plc 3, Lincat Group Plc 12.9, Malcolm Group PLC/The 1.7, Marshalls Plc 3.65, Matalan Plc 2.7, Northern 2 VCT PLC 1, Peacock Group Plc 2.5, Quadnetics Group Plc 2, Radamec Group Plc 3, St Ives Group PLC 12.15, Taylor Nelson Sofres PLC 0.95, Ted Baker Plc 3.2, Unilever Plc 6.16, Whitbread PLC 6.15, William Hill PLC 3.5 | ||||||||
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BAA (I), Big Food Group (I), BG Group Boots Group (I), London Stock Exchange (I) Man Group (I), Scottish & Southern Energy (I), Signet (Q3), Sondex (I), Synergy Healthcare (I), Tate & Lyle (I), Telewest Communications (Q3) Punch Taverns (F), Sun Alliance Insurance (Q3)FW Thorpe (AGM), West Bromwich Albion (AGM) BOE interest rate decision |
Sempra Energy Q1, Williams Companies Q3 13:30 Initial Claims 13:30 Productivity-Prel |
Aegon NL Q3, Aixtron D Q3 Altana D Q3, BMW D Q3 BNP Paribas F Q3, Degussa D Q3 Deutsche Boerse D Q3, EADS D Q3 FJA D Q3, GPC Biotech D Q3 Karstadt Quelle D, ProSieben Sat1 D Q3 Societe Generale F Q3, Vinci F Q3
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AQXL Ricardo (I), BT Group (Tentative) (Q2) Shire Pharmaceuticals (Q3), EasyJetInvox (AGM), Pochin's (AGM) Quayle Munro (AGM), Thomas Walker (AGM)Q3 insolvency statistics (09:30) |
13:30 Average Workweek 13:30 Hourly Earnings 13:30 Nonfarm Payrolls 13:30 Unemployment Rate 15:00 Wholesale Inventories 20:00 Consumer Credit |
Ahold NL Q2 Comdirect D Q3 Deutsche Post D Q3 TotalFinaElf F Q3 |
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| Provisional Calendar For The Following Week 10th - 14th Nov | ||||||||
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DCC (I), Ferraris Group (I), Radstone Technology (I), Renold (I), Uniq (I), British Airways H1 Debenhams (AGM) Sept. trade (09:30), BRC retail sales monitor July-Sept. residential property report
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Galen Holdings (F), Comino (I), EMAP (I), Intechnology (I) International Power (I), Northern Foods (I), VT Group (I), Reckitt Benckiser Q3 BAA PLC October traffic Dicom Group (AGM), ICM Computer (AGM) Smiths Group (AGM) CBI regional trends survey |
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Cable & Wireless (I), Business Post Group (I) Dairy Crest (I), Medical House (F) Business Post (I), Cable and Wireless (I), Wincanton Logistics (I) Cable and Wireless H1, Luminar H1 Domestic and General (AGM) BoE inflation report (10:30) labour market report (09:30) |
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Ex Dividend: Cobham (8.36), Hit Entertainment (0.322), JJB Sports (3.0), Kesa Electricals (2.5), Merchants Trust (4.3) | ||||||||
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Capital Radio (F), BT Group H1, Yell Group (I) Invensys (I), Bank of Ireland (I), Marconi Corporation (I), Freeport (AGM) July-Sept. house building statistics (09:00) |
13:30 Export Prices ex-ag. 13:30 Import Prices ex-oil 13:30 Initial Claims 13:30 Trade Balance |
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BSkyB Q1 International Biotech (AGM)
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13:30 PPI, 13:30 Retail Sales 14:15 Capacity Utilization 14:15 Industrial Production 14:45 Mich Sentiment-Prel. |
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| Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead - Sunday 2nd November |
A busy week ahead with an expected rise in UK interest rates set to dominate the market. Retail stocks will be in the spotlight with results from Marks & Spencer and Boots. MondayEbookers deliver Q3 results after it earlier blamed the unusually hot weather for subdued trading in August. Also it had systems problems when it relocated part of its operation to India. However, the company said that trading had picked up in September and was optimistic for the future.Tuesday Marks & Spencer reports 6 month figures with forecasts of a 7% rise to 313.7m from 287m a year earlier. It is thought they may announce they are to start buying back shares due to the healthy state of the company balance sheet. The market will be anxious to hear oif sales have improved following a statement that sales grew just 0.6% in the 11 weeks to 27 September.Carphone Warehouse reports half-time figures after saying last month that connections to its talktalk service had accelerated. News of the success in this area could could Buoyed by the success of talktalk. If the growth has continued look for a rise in the share price and a possible drop on BT.Scottish Power is expected to report strong profits growth for the first half of the year. Figures are forecast to show a rise in pre-tax profits to 392.2m from 336.6m a year earlier. Wednesday Pilkington are expected to bring in strong results after hefty cost reductions, lower interest charges and an improved manufacturing performance. Analysts forecast a profits rise to 83.5m from 76m. Could be a speculative buy pre results.Shire Pharmaceuticals the UK's third-biggest drugs company has third-quarter results. Following good performance from AstraZeneca & Glaxo they should not disappoint. In August, the company indicated that full-year revenue growth would be in the "high teens".Thursday BAA Airports operator profits are expected to fall to 310m from 326m a year earlier's half-year following Sars, Iraq war, higher pension charges and a further increase in airport security charges. Boots are expected to show a small drop on its 6 month profits down from 279.6m to 278.3m. The market will be looking towards the statement from its new CEO Richard Baker which no doubt will be quite bullish. 3 weeks ago they announced a reasonable summer trading with a sales rise of 2.9%. Scottish & Southern Energy are expected to produce good with profits simlar to the preceeding year at 240.9m. Balance sheet strength could mean that they will be looking for acquisitions or possibly start a share buy back program. McCarthy & Stone builder of retirement homes should please the city with anlaysts looking for sales of 255m and pre-tax profits around 105m Thoughts As we thought last week the FTSE continued forwards and remained within its 6 month 125 point wide up channel. Unless there is some really bad news it is likely to once again test its resistance line (in red). So for next week perhaps some early selling which could possibly be followed by a 100 point rise. Canary Wharf and Sainsbury should make further gains with takeover speculation. As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead! David (Crocodile) David@SnappyTrader.com www.SnappyTrader.comAll the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
Crocodile - 02 Nov 2003 13:30 - 3 of 24
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Headlines 2 November U.S. buy-out firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co is not weighing up a takeover bid for supermarket chain J Sainsbury, a source close to the U.S. firm says, denying a report in a Sunday newspaper. Reuters BSkyB is planning to come to a crucial decision on who will be the pay-TV company's new chief executive on Monday, with Chairman Rupert Murdoch's son James the odds-on favourite. Reuters. Property firm Canary Wharf is planning to enter into exclusive talks with a consortium led by US investment bank Morgan Stanley with a view to recommending a 1.5 billion pound takeover offer |
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SUNDAY TIMES Wembley is facing defeat in Colorado referendum Collins Stewart leads the bidding for Center Parcs Waterford Wedgwood weighs 50m share issue BSkyB board in shake-up AIB plans takeover of Irish insurance firm Debenhams Belinda Earls controversial bonus revealed Business Digest Rolls-Royce Shell indecision casts doubt on Corrib gas plan Ryanair Holdings OReilly defies his age to stay corporate action man Judgment Day: Parthusceva |
Sharewatch: J Smart Marconi Corporation, Backing the future with ICI Trujillo puts some fresh zest into smartphones at Orange Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Electrocomponents? Media News Billboard: MindShare and McM slug it out for 11m Eircom contract Directors' Deals: Cairn buy fuels takeover speculation Special Report: Is RBSs Fred the Shred too good to be true? Sharewatch, The Big Food Group, Backing the future with ICI Scotland: Aberdeen in legal talks with insurers Is Spurs split just another own goal? |
| Electrical parts group Electrocomponents has seen shares fall in the last three years as the economy has struggled. Investor enthusiasm for the group was reversed in September when it said first half profits would be about 45 million against 46.3m last year. Schroders said investors should avoid the stock, saying the challenge of reversing the downward operating margin trend since 1997 will be tough. | |
| SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Murdoch appointees barred from BSkyB vote Debenhams Earl waives over 300,000 of bonus Canary Wharf braced for last-ditch 1.5bn bid Unilever's Ambrosia sale is in the can Cadbury considers US soft drinks split |
BAT Broughton's BA smokescreen Is Marks running out of steam? A thrilling denouement to BSkyB's boardroom drama Boots chief to stack shelves for Christmas LSE Stock Exchange threat to clearing house merger |
| Investors should keep buying shares in computer games publisher Eidos. The group has developed a number of best-selling formats in the last 12 months that will further reduce its reliance on the Tomb Raider/Lara Croft brand. Against its US peers, Eidos continues to look cheap. | |
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OBSERVER Canary Wharf Reichmann aims to go it alone BSkyB ready to put Murdoch Jr in charge Davis casts shadow over Sainsbury job Carlton, Granada director ready to quit ahead of ITV summit |
Cadbury gets indigestion BP and Blues beware; Putin's on the warpath Leeds United Football's finances: sick as a parrot Jarvis will make 21m windfall gain from Tube |
| It is rather ironic that last week's merger between tobacco group BAT's US business Brown & Williamson and rival RJ Reynolds should have changed the minds of investors choosing to value the group's shares at a discount, while BAT has insisted that litigation in the US or any other country is not a big deal. The merger makes absolutely no difference to BAT's position as far as litigation from smokers is concerned. | |
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SUNDAY MAIL Sainsbury target of US takeover, Predator runs the rule over stores giant Bank lines up shock rate rise, Drastic action to curb spending boom Murdoch crowns his son BSkyB king EMI closing in on 1bn Warner deal Surprise bidder in frame for Panmure, US investment bank eyeing broker |
More Green magic from 'solid' Bhs 'Significant improvement' in profits Allied Irish Bank set to sell Govett, US problems accelerate decision BP fear as Kremlin probes oil moguls, 4.5bn deal with TNK under threat The Vikings are back for more raids, Baugur bids for Oasis, ally targets bank |
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INDEPENDENT Granada, Carlton Kingsmill in picture for top job at merged ITV 'Railtrack' warning by BT boss Bland Royal Bank courts a high-priced Sovereign BSkyB non-execs make last effort to stop Murdoch Jnr |
Boots, BSkyB, Carphone Warehouse As nights draw in, will rates go up? What they need in the BSkyB boardroom is a nice strong cuppa BSkyB Thought you had a heavy workload? We present Allan: portrait of a serial director |
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BT Group He cut a swath through corporate Britain. Now the veteran swordsman has
one last job to do Unilever continues to struggle in a fiercely competitive market. A few weeks ago it lowered its forecast for the second time in four months, saying sales growth would be less than 3% against projections of 5%-6%. But the company remains very profitable with 17% operating margins already exceeding its 16% target. Investec said it is the third time Unilever stock has collapsed since value-based management took root in 1995-6, but each time it has been right to buy and 'this time doesn't look any different'. |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY British Airways unveils global partnerships British Airways Tech firm wins BAE lasers deal Stagecoach on inside track for two rail deals ScottishPower urged to consider break-up Scotch on the rocks over Diageo |
Shareholders blow for Caledonia Investments Scottish Power Energy giant powers towards $1bn US target Barry steps up holding in auctioneer UA Group RBOS closing in on $6bn Sovereign deal |
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SUNDAY EXPRESS Analysts at Evolution believe furniture retailer Courts will report full year pre-tax profits of 30 million against 9.4m last year. The key difference is a likely return to profitability for the UK business after stronger orders. Buy at 297.5p. |
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| The Business Several brokers have issued buy recommendations on airports operator BAA in the past month, saying it is among the best-positioned groups to take advantage of the upturn. Williams de Broe believes continued improvement in traffic figures will boost the company's second half, helped by lower costs and improved retail spending. | |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy Vodafone (VOD) at 121p - BTG (BTG) at 416p - Hydro International (HYD) at 121p - Creston (CRE) at 107p - Invox (INX) at 318p - Sell Antofagasta (ANTO) at 937p. Updates: Buy BP (BP) and WPP (WPP) - Sell Dixons Group (DXNS) - Ultimate Leisure (ULG) good value. |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy Dimension Data (DDT) at 30.75p - Premier Direct (PDR) at 515p - Abbeycrest (ACR) at 80.5p - Berkeley Berry Birch (BBB) at 24.5p.Updates:Buy Country and Metropolitan (CRY) - Intec Telecom Systems (ITL) - Surfcontrol (SRF) - Hold/buy Body Shop International (BOS).Test Tube Hurdles: Buy Oxford Biomedica (OXB) - Acambis (ACM) - Proteome Sciences (PRM) - Neutec Pharma (NTP) - Alizyme (AZM). |
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Melnibone - 02 Nov 2003 17:05 - 4 of 24
Thought I'd say hello for a change instead of just lurking.
The support line on Croc's chart seems to line up with the action last week.
On Monday the 4260/65 area acted as resistance.
On Tues/Weds it acted as support.
As Croc suggests, a long on a successful retest of this area could prove
profitable. I've got S2 at 4261 which would help this level to hold
unless a trend developes.
Anyone agree?
Melnibone
Diego - 02 Nov 2003 20:11 - 5 of 24
Diego
Druid2
- 02 Nov 2003 21:13
- 6 of 24
Crocodile - 02 Nov 2003 21:21 - 7 of 24
Seems about right :-)
And welcome
D,
little woman
- 02 Nov 2003 21:43
- 8 of 24
I like to think it's for Investors who like to trade as well as traders trading!
Melnibone - 02 Nov 2003 22:10 - 9 of 24
more in the future.
A quick thumbnail so as you know not to take too much notice of me.
I've been trading shares for about 3 years now. The first 2 years
were buying and selling through a standard broker and the last year
I've progressed to going short and long using CFD's.
So I'm certainly not any kind of Guru. :-)
Couldn't do very well only being able to go long during a Bear Market
with the standard broker, but things are a lot better now I can choose
to go either short or long and use a trend rather than try and fight it.
Melnibone.
Mega Bucks
- 03 Nov 2003 06:44
- 10 of 24
still long lgen cna gnk fpt and drastic mistake bby which is going 1st thing this morning because of interest rate hike and construction?
hope you all have a great day the weather in hertfordshire is p**s poor but hey i am alive:-)
Mega...
ThePlayboy
- 03 Nov 2003 07:11
- 11 of 24
Note that it is a 3 wave sequence that sub-divides into 5-3-5 up from 9200, with wave C nearly complete.
The pattern now looks to be forming a triangle, which can only be a 4th wave. This says expect another, quick but short rally that either tests or marginally breaks 9850.
The triangle (if that's what this is) would look best with another up/down sequence before the final wave 5.
On that basis, odds favor some sideways action early on monday, followed by a pop and drop.
A pop and drop at the open which fails to take out 9850, and then declines below 9750 says the pattern is complete.
An ideal case is failure to rally above 9850, as that is a bearish non-confirmation of the advance, and makes a much better case that the larger pattern is concluding here as well.
A breach of 9850 allows for more upside, and it would be possible that this is part of a larger 3rd or C wave up.
Technicals are showing some weakness, but not enough to confirm the pattern has completed just yet.
Updated 10/31 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/3
UP Above 9,850
DN Below 9,775
Still Consolidating
Dow continues sideways beneath resistance. Watch tight range Monday.
From prior commentary, "...the Dow has slowed its uptrend right at the 9,850 resistance level. Unless the index can break through this level, we will likely see the Dow change direction and head lower..."
The Dow held beneath the key 9,850 resistance level today, but continued to hold at the highs as the index traded sideways throughout the session, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.
The index continues to hold onto the weeks big gains by way of a consolidation at the highs, but the range looks more bearish than bullish at this point. The fact that the index hasn't risen above the key 9,850 resistance level is of concern. Also, the range looks to be taking the shape of a saucer top, which is typically a bearish pattern.
As we mentioned yesterday, if the Dow cannot get an upside break through 9,850, look for the index to reverse trend. A downside break below 9,775 will indicate weakness and a likely downside follow-through.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow held at short term resistance at 9,820 throughout much of the session today. Look for weakness below this level for Monday's Open unless a break through it occurs.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still Long the Dow from 9,658 and will pull our stops up to 9,775 for tomorrow's market. We will stay Long above 9,850 and will look to enter Short below 9,775, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each held at their respective highs today, forming clear trading ranges. Watch these ranges closely for Monday's market, as a break from the range will likely dictate direction. *
Summary
The Dow traded sideways the entire session today, and continues to hold beneath the clear and solid 9,850 resistance level. The index must break through this level if further upside is to be seen. Otherwise, a break below 9,775 will signal a change of trend.
MON FTSE PP
R2 4314
R1 4301
PP 4281
S1 4274
S2 4261
close was below Fri pp after loosing 1.3pts in the auction!
WEEKLY FTSE PP
r2 4381
r1 4334
pp 4286
s1 4239
s2 4191
Close was below the weekly PP after challenging the R1!
Crocodile - 03 Nov 2003 07:40 - 12 of 24
Big Thunder storms & hail all night and still going on at the moment here in Northen France.
washlander
- 03 Nov 2003 08:58
- 13 of 24
Melnibone - 03 Nov 2003 09:09 - 14 of 24
Didn't take long for the FTSE to hit R2 and stall.
Back down again now I think.
Melnibone
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 09:11
- 15 of 24
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 09:51
- 16 of 24
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 12:23
- 17 of 24
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 12:25
- 18 of 24
Melnibone - 03 Nov 2003 12:32 - 19 of 24
the S@P is so near its highs and not yet open for normal
hours trading.
Still, shows the wisdom in not trying to fight a trend, whatever
you think should be happening.
Melnibone
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 12:36
- 20 of 24
Melnibone - 03 Nov 2003 12:49 - 21 of 24
Keeping an eye on BP. and SHEL.
Starting to diverge.
Usually price differential of 35/40p.
Currently 44p.
May be worth a pairs trade(Short BP. long SHEL)
if it goes up to 48/50p differential.
Melnibone
little woman
- 03 Nov 2003 12:58
- 22 of 24
Thinking of crocs 2 day movement, 2 days up, and then down, 2 days up then down
Melnibone - 03 Nov 2003 17:38 - 23 of 24
Just in case it has slipped anyone's memory in this bullish euphoria,
be careful with any position longs at these levels.
As you can see we are now very close to the Sep 2001 low which
was also the resistance on the bear squeeze bounce in Aug 2002.
I would expect heavy resistance at this level. No need to worry about
missing a big surge up. If we break it, retest it and it holds, then
I see nothing to stop it until the old 5000/5200 trading range.
Plenty enough for everyone.
Better to wait and go with it than risk buying at what would now
be the top if this resistance holds. No idea if it will or won't
by the way.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 03 Nov 2003 21:57 - 24 of 24
Taking a look at RBS. It took a hit today with problems over one
of its takeover targets.
It appears to be in a trading range of approx 1530/1650.
It's made a double bottom at 1530 and bounced of the same level
today. If you think that the FTSE is going to try for the 4425
resistance area that I highlighted in my last post(Sep01 low/ Aug 2002 high),
this may offer a better risk/reward ratio.
Take the lowest common denominator in CFD/Spead Betting of 1 a point.
This would be the equivalent of buying 100 shares and looking for 1 a penny.
Just add zeros on the end to get your normal position size.
The FTSE is at 4325 and 100 points away from the 4425.
RBS is at 1546p and 104p(same as points) away from 1650p.
One CFD or spreadbet on the FTSE would give you exposure of 4425 looking
for a 100 gain.
100 shares in RBS would give you exposure of 1546 looking for the same
100 gain.
FTSE is at least a spread of 3 to 4 points.
RBS is often 2p(same as points) spread.
Which is the better risk/reward?
Comments anyone?
Melnibone.
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