SUJEEVANN
- 03 Nov 2003 23:02
This is an another money maker -trading in high volumes -not yet started the race -But once moving ahead there is no chance of picking up this tiddler.Join together to enjoy the instant wealth
gary k
- 04 Nov 2003 00:40
- 2 of 196
You need to take a look at its very chequered past before making rash statements like that backed up by an obvious lack of facts.
I've been in this for 4 years now and it's been a painful, long slog back to this level.
Invest in this with care. D (lots of) YOR!!!
optomistic
- 04 Nov 2003 13:20
- 4 of 196
Some years ago I recall reading about the virtues of Fortune Oil. I even received a paperback book from one orgaisation covering in detail the many reasons why it would make such a good investment. I wasn't convinced, 'fortunately' as nothing seems to have changed, particularly the share price and the many hopes of 'jam tommorrow'
gordon geko
- 09 Nov 2003 22:13
- 5 of 196
been with this one just as long bought in at 13.75 check the chart to see how long ago that was been seems they could have finally turned the corner topped
up with another 60k last week can see the next set of news re the new pipline and assume contracts to support the investment the lhiting of the touchpaper toward 5p otherwise.......its jam tommorrow
highinterest
- 14 Nov 2003 15:01
- 6 of 196
This is not a get rich quick stock. It is a good one to get into and hold. What the hell, it's a gamble. don't spend it if you can't afford to lose it and at these prices it doesn't have to be much.
llewellyn
- 23 Nov 2003 16:54
- 7 of 196
yes this one i hold 55,000 shrares in long term i belevie that china will grow with its ecomnoy up by 20% a year.
northrop
- 26 Nov 2003 14:37
- 8 of 196
For anyone who missed it -
LONDON (AFX) - Fortune Oil PLC said it has decided to exit the loss-making AcroChina Technology Inc as it is no longer core to Fortune's core operations.
The company is selling its 51 pct stake in AcroChina to Crown United Ltd, a private company, for 2.8 mln hkd.
The news accompanied an announcement that Fortune has completed its natural gas pipeline venture with Beijing Huayou Gas Corporation Ltd, a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corp.
Under the deal, Fortune will take an 80 pct share in the venture, known as the Beijing Fortune Huiyuan Gas Co Ltd, which will initially own and operate four natural gas pipelines.
Fortune is investing 4.3 mln stg in the venture.
Fortune said final terms of the venture have now been agreed and a business licence for the joint venture has been issued.
The agreement envisages the joint venture lasting 30 years.
Fortune said the venture will pave the way for the introduction of foreign capital and expertise to develop the pipeline assets. There is considerable scope for the business to grow through appropriate add-on investment, as demand for natural gas builds up in the region, it said.
- Good news, well received.
tikka_69
- 26 Nov 2003 16:43
- 9 of 196
This share has done good today, excellent volume and good finishing price, 3.25 / 3.6
This is well above the 3p resitance level this share usually has, so hopefully it will be onward and upward from here on the back of the great news today.
gordon geko
- 26 Nov 2003 21:26
- 10 of 196
bailed out today @ 3.25 made made 26% happy with this time to move on
rayrac
- 27 Nov 2003 10:47
- 11 of 196
Been holding these for so long I can't remember when! :)
I haven't even moved them over to my new nominee account. Mind you, what was a decent investment then, isn't worth a spit now! :(
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 27 Nov 2003 12:20
- 12 of 196
********************************************************************************
"Look out!!" "Dragon Oil" your not the only one that can turn into a 3.9 bagger!!........ Fortune Oil is going to catch you up one day!!
********************************************************************************
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 27 Nov 2003 15:33
- 13 of 196
********************************************************************************
Here we have a small (but robust) Oil/Gas company who survived the "Oil Crisis" of a few years ago, while "Major Oil Companies" had to amalgamate in order to survive...
Now those days have past we are going to see the real potential of Furtune Oil!
Also placed in the worlds greatest growing economy its on course to re-establish its former glory before the "Oil Crisis" when the share price fluctuated between 8p and 15p and "Institutions" were fully invested....
I clearly remember "Perpetual Small Companies" Unit Trust alone, holding 32 million shares in "Fortune Oil"!!...... IMHO It's now just a matter of time!!!
********************************************************************************
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 27 Nov 2003 22:29
- 14 of 196
************************************************************
CCTV channel announced tonight (Thursday 27th November 2003) that China's GDP will grow by 8.5% this year!!!
The following is a full report on what they said>>>>>
____________________________________________________________
"Chinas GDP expected to surpass US $1,341 billion"
cctv.com 11-27-2003 14:10
China's economy is expected to grow at 8.5 percent this year. This comes from a report released by the National Statistics Bureau on Wednesday.
The figures show that China's gross domestic product is expected to exceed an equivalent of 1 trillion and 341 billion US dollars. At present the country's foreign exchange reserve has surpassed 400 billion US dollars; residents have so far deposited savings of more than 1,200 billion US dollars, And industrial production has grown at the fastest rate since 1995. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also forecast an 8.4 percent growth this year for China.
____________________________________________________________
Regards John
************************************************************
tikka69
- 01 Dec 2003 21:46
- 15 of 196
Bid edged up again today, now 3.4 / 3.7 with mostly buys.
Things are certainly starting to look good for this share now, of course DYOR..
t69
tikka69
- 14 Dec 2003 16:34
- 16 of 196
After slight drop back nice 10% rise on friday, now 3.3 / 3.6 again, interest in this is certainly picking up again after the small sell off from profit takers.
Also seems to be rising on reasonably small volume now, which is interesting.
Good luck, and DYOR
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 15 Dec 2003 15:37
- 17 of 196
********************************************************************************
The trend for FTO has been upward in a narrow range since end of June when it was below 1.5 pence !!
The graphical projection indicate we can expect to see 5.3 pence around the second or third week of January (that's providing there's no news to go against it !)
On the other hand it will do better if its a New Year 2004 recommendation!!
Its certainly looking good for the short to medium term at least!
John
********************************************************************************
anotherxiii
- 15 Dec 2003 17:45
- 18 of 196
hi
i recognise that name
also p*ssed off with iii?????
hope you are right
rgds
CR
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 15 Dec 2003 23:06
- 19 of 196
********************************************************************************
You and me both CR!!..
iii has gone completely to the dogs... hardy worth visiting anymore.
Managed fund prices haven't been updated since the 10th.... It's like no one at Ample has got any interest in it any more!!! and yet I find it is such a nice site to use and its easy on the eye (to navigate).
I've been looking at the charts for FTO and if we do reach the 5.3 pence mark in Jan it will be exactly 5 years to the month that it was last at that level!!
It's just amazing how long some of us have been waiting for this sort of price!!
Kind Regards John C
********************************************************************************
tikka69
- 16 Dec 2003 09:14
- 20 of 196
Have to agree there Roth Pig, this share does certainly seem to be in a steep upward trend now.
I would say that we will soon be breaking through the 4p resitance level, and then who knows !
Good luck to all that have stuck with this share, you will be rewarded !
tikka69
- 19 Dec 2003 09:38
- 21 of 196
Check fortune out, big sells yesterday, price stays solid.
500k sell today and price rises to 3.5 / 3.75 .
Any ideas why this is happening, do the MM's want your stock badly ?
tikka69
- 22 Dec 2003 11:23
- 22 of 196
Fortune continuing its upward trend today, plenty of buys and price now 3.7 / 3.9.
4p before the years out, I would say definitly, but DYOR.........
tikka69
- 23 Dec 2003 16:45
- 23 of 196
As predicted Fortune has done it and ended the day on 4 / 4.25 !
This has got to be one of the hot stocks for 2004 with all the interest in the
Chinese market at the minute.
DYOR
Andy
- 27 Dec 2003 17:34
- 24 of 196
tikka69,
Well the chart looks fairly positive!
Actually I still have some FTO bought several years ago at 8p and 12p!
They have been in the bottom of the drawer (as a long term hold!)but they are now starting to have some value again, and I feel I may even move into profit eventaully!
I have always felt they were the right share for some exposure to the growing Chinese economy, and although I held because FTO had virtualy become worthless, i'm pleased i did.
I don't have any plans to sell them.
tikka69
- 29 Dec 2003 11:09
- 25 of 196
All buys again this morning just about 595k buys vs. 1 10k sell.
Spread at the minute is 3.85 / 4.25, but I reckon the bid will be back to 4 shortly if the buys carry on..........
DYOR
tikka69
- 29 Dec 2003 13:00
- 26 of 196
As I said earlier, price now 4 / 4.5, with the buying still going on, this is going to be one hot stock for 2004, take my word........
tikka69
- 30 Dec 2003 08:25
- 27 of 196
All buys this morning now, price has ticked up to 4.25 / 4.5, get in before its too late !! DYOR
blakester
- 30 Dec 2003 16:41
- 28 of 196
Dammit, I knew I should have got in earlier....
goss
- 30 Dec 2003 17:43
- 29 of 196
I got in after a tip from a friend. They said it would move and it has done. Keep going up FTO.
Andy
- 30 Dec 2003 18:08
- 30 of 196
goss,
has he got any other tips?
I have a holding in FTO from years ago, languishing in the bottom of a drawer, and I had really given up on them.
Now they are a decently modest sized holding!
And I have a feeling they will continue to grow further, someone appears to be accumulating FTO for this sort of rise.
Andy
- 31 Dec 2003 11:51
- 32 of 196
And up she goes again!
This is starting to become interesting!
goss
- 31 Dec 2003 14:21
- 33 of 196
Andy,
The only other stock that I have brought havily is ML Laboratories plc (MLB), which was some 6 months ago when they were around 18.00. They are still looking good at 31.00. Broker advised that these are still undervalued. Should hit peck in 2005. Good stock to buy and hold for a couple of years.
Any tips yourself Andy.
llewellyn
- 31 Dec 2003 16:53
- 34 of 196
this was great news today about fortune oil , lets hope this is the start of something BIG???????????????????????
Andy
- 31 Dec 2003 19:14
- 35 of 196
goss,
Avocet Mining, and Oxus Gold are two of my favourites, as they are being boosted by the high price of gold. I have a fairly large holding (for me) in both.
ML Labs have been mentioned on other BB's, and there does seem to be a recovery going on there. I will keep an aye on them.
Happy New Year to all on this thread!
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 02 Jan 2004 23:50
- 36 of 196
******************************************************************************
Theres a very nice Inverse Head and Shoulders taking place!... we have almost completed the "UPSIDE DOWN" head and are now traveling upwards towards the shoulder, it also shows almost two complete 5 year cycles since 1994!!
regards John C
******************************************************************************
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 05 Jan 2004 13:06
- 37 of 196
***********************************************************
Guangdong tests confirm new SARS strain!
Scientists confirm a new variant of the SARS coronavirus may have infected the suspected SARS patient in Guangdong Province.
However, Scientists have traced the sauce of the virus to a wild animal called the Masked Civet which is widely eaten in China... (Many of those who contracted the virus were cooks).....
A ban has now been placed on the all human contact with the wild animal and anyone selling it will be punished said CCTV today!
This looks to be good news on bad, in that they have finally traced the sauce of the infection.
Regards John
***********************************************************
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 06 Jan 2004 08:56
- 38 of 196
*******************************************************************************
Blimin-heck we are going to clear 5p today at this rate!!
This is looking very good... as yesterdays loses have almost been recovered already!! and its not even one hour into the trading session yet!!
*******************************************************************************
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 06 Jan 2004 13:36
- 39 of 196
********************************************************************************
China today (6th Jan) ordered the slaughter if the Civet Cat in order to eradicate the source of the SARS virus... (Bloomberg TV)
********************************************************************************
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 12 Jan 2004 07:08
- 40 of 196
3rd Case of SARS but analysts remain optomistic!!
************************************************************
Chinese experts have confirmed that a 35-year-old man is a suspected SARS case and are waiting for Beijing to make a formal announcement, a top Guangdong health official said on Friday 9th Jan 2004.
Local experts concluded the man was a suspected SARS case.
The officials said they did not know the man's occupation, and there were no clues as to how he may have contracted the virus that causes the pneumonia-like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
"At this point, there's no evidence that it's related to his work environment or contact with animals," Xiao said.
Bloomberg TV.... 11th Jan 2004
Most Financial Analysts remain optimistic that China will be the main growth investment area in the world over the next decade..
Regards John
************************************************************
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 03 Feb 2004 09:06
- 41 of 196
Recomended a buy by Hargeaves and Lansdown !
I remember Hargeaves and Lansdown recommended them before it climbed to 16p last time lets hope it does the same again!!
ckmtang
- 05 Feb 2004 11:32
- 42 of 196
does it still look good?
yomomma
- 05 Feb 2004 19:33
- 43 of 196
Things have never looked better for this share !!
Andy
- 05 Feb 2004 23:08
- 44 of 196
Agreed,
Long term holders will be rewarded IMHO.
(I've held for several years, and am almost back to breakeven,. LOL!)
ckmtang
- 11 Feb 2004 10:46
- 45 of 196
Why sudden rise without news?
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 11 Feb 2004 13:55
- 46 of 196
Its very volatile today.... A lot of tree shaking going on!..
A lot of old fruit falling out the tree, but a lot of new buds and fruit coming along to replace them!!
I may be wrong but this is usually an indicator of a more defined move coming up, possibly by the weekend!!
Regards John
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 11 Feb 2004 14:00
- 47 of 196
***************************************
ckmtang - 11 Feb'04 - 10:46 - 44 of 45
Why sudden rise without news?
-----------------------------------
I wonder if theres going to be a mention in "Shares Magazine" tomorrow or "Investors Chronical" in Friday in responce to the news last week???
John
mackenzie
- 11 Feb 2004 16:47
- 48 of 196
more to do with possible change to value of Chinese Yuan to Dollar, possible 30% change being talked about by Chinese Gov't, would make shares traded in uk worth 30% more...nice bonus if it happens
llewellyn
- 11 Feb 2004 19:49
- 49 of 196
will at the moment they are at 6.25 and what a nice change for one of my stocks to go up instead of down ???????????????????
ckmtang
- 12 Feb 2004 07:43
- 50 of 196
is this share mention in Share magazone today?
yomomma
- 12 Feb 2004 08:01
- 51 of 196
I think its safe to say it has been mentioned now the price is up 6% already !
llewellyn
- 12 Feb 2004 19:31
- 52 of 196
i have just read that the company has just taken on a new member for there company?????????i dont know but it sounds like this stock could be going somewhere.
DSTOREY9916
- 12 Feb 2004 22:02
- 53 of 196
Can anyone please give reasoning behind recent increase in share price?
Thanks in advance...Dave
Andy
- 12 Feb 2004 22:25
- 54 of 196
ckmtang,
Yes FTO was signalled as a BUY in tday's Shares Mag, and it pointed to the excellent deal it did recently, and suggested FTO would realise more good deals on some of their Chinese assets.
I hold, and see FTO as an excellent long term hold.
gary k
- 13 Feb 2004 10:02
- 55 of 196
Up again thankfully.
Us long termers might eventually get our money back at last!
I've been in this for years now and have held patiently waiting for the rise back up to blue. No doubt there are plenty of you who have made a tidy profit buying in at 1.5 and all the way up to current levels, good luck to you.
We are now over the 7p barrier, so maybe a good push up to 8p very soon?
llewellyn
- 13 Feb 2004 21:28
- 56 of 196
YOU bet garyk i to hold fto and brought at 1.75 dont khow when to sell or keep my nearve !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Andy
- 14 Feb 2004 10:47
- 58 of 196
LW,
Ok I'll check my email, my mailbox is certainly not full, although not too many received recently.
Gary k
ALMOST back up to my 8p buy price today, then it fell back a tad!
I still feel we'll be above the 8p figure soon, and then I'm looking to recover my loss on those I paid 12p for in the placing a few years ago!
Onwards and upwards from here I think, and I'm holding all mine for the forseeable future!
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 15 Feb 2004 13:30
- 59 of 196
SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week:.....................
Patsystems (PTS) - Buy,
Fortune Oil (FTO) - Buy,
Cobra Biomanufacturing (CBF) - Hold.
Asos (ASC) - Buy,
Eurodis (ELH) - Buy,
Oystertec (OYS) - Buy.
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 15 Feb 2004 18:30
- 60 of 196
Andy
A lot of us bought at around 8p... and I took up the rights issue at around 12p
Boy are we a patient lot!!??
Most of my holding was bought at 1p... and some more at 2.5p and 3.5p, so Im well pleased I had enough faith to buy at those levels now!!
Good Fortune John
Andy
- 15 Feb 2004 19:44
- 61 of 196
John,
Very well done, you deserve it for showing faith when FTO hit rock bottom!
I intend to hold, I always thought FTO would come good in the end, although it took longer than I thought I must admit.
I have also held PRE and DGO for the same period, and they are slowly recovering too. Keep an eye out for PRE in the next couple of weeks, they may report a decent find!
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 15 Feb 2004 23:20
- 62 of 196
Thanks Andy will do!
Another one of mine that's on the move that Im very excited about and seems an interesting play, is "ReGen Therapeutics" (RGT) with their natural-no-side-affects treatment and possible cure for Alzheimer's Disease (AD)
Directors have just taken out options to buy shares at 6p which sounds very positive and optimistic as the shares are only 3.75p to buy currently... (compared to a previous all time high of 40p.)
There are some very knowledgeable posters on the Ample BB site especially "MCGRAW" and its well worth reading if you have the time. !
I've got 20,000 shares in it, but wish I had more!
Kind Regards John
Andy
- 16 Feb 2004 00:11
- 63 of 196
RP,
Thanks for the info, will check out the ample site.
llewellyn
- 16 Feb 2004 10:15
- 64 of 196
why all the rises so suddenly??????????????this is my first stock that has done well ?
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 16 Feb 2004 16:05
- 65 of 196
llewellyn
Its a recovery play after it crashed during the Oil Crisis at the end of 1998...
Theres been some good news comming through and realisation by investors that FTO is beginning to do well again...
I expect it to reach its previous all time high of 16p at least some time this year.
regards John
llewellyn
- 16 Feb 2004 19:48
- 66 of 196
thanks very much john i brought these last year at 1.75 so i will ride the storm????????
llewellyn
- 17 Feb 2004 18:55
- 67 of 196
DONT know want to do the price today 8p hang on in there ????????????lets see
bosley
- 20 Feb 2004 08:59
- 68 of 196
recently bought into this company on the back of shares mag article. happy so far ! wondering whether to take profit now or do people think there is more upside to this current rise?
ckmtang
- 20 Feb 2004 09:48
- 69 of 196
i think still have space to rise, since IC tipped BUY today
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 20 Feb 2004 13:08
- 70 of 196
Fortune Oil! the current situation....!!!!
Plus Points
(1) Probably the highest exposure to the Chinese economic growth of any company on the London Stock Exchange.
(2) Positioned in an attractive Niche
(3) Sale of Bluesky for excellent price
(4) Strong Balance sheet
Negative points
(1) Unpredictable Chinese politics
(2) Price has already risen very strongly
Continue to hold!!!
John
bosley
- 20 Feb 2004 17:18
- 71 of 196
think i am going to take your advice on this one john. very tempting to take the profit but maybe there is more to come . did IC give any indication as to price forcasts? what else did the article say ckmtang?
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 20 Feb 2004 20:10
- 72 of 196
Hi bosley
I don't want to go into detail as it might breach "Copy Right"
Basically they are saying what I've said in my previous post.... in my opinion The bottom line is..... "its a "High Risk" "High Reward" company in a very unique position with everything going for it at this moment in time!!"
However, someone has stuck his neck out and posted the IC's article on ADVFN if you want more detail.
Personally Im confident the price will almost, if not, actually hit the previous all time high of just over 16p, especially as we progress towards the results in April!!
Its going to be a very bumpy ride so try not to give in to your nerves during a sudden sharp fall!!.....
It's the subtle and gradual hint of a decline during the bobbing about that you have to be aware of!!....... conversely be aware of the subtle climb upwards taking place to help with your decision to hold.
Regards John
basharat
- 21 Feb 2004 22:14
- 73 of 196
http://www.iii.co.uk/portfolio
what shud i do>>////?????????
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 22 Feb 2004 20:51
- 74 of 196
basharat
Youve put a link up to presumably your portfolio on iii....
No one else can see it, as it is pass word protected!!
Ive posted the following comment on the iii Fortune Oil board.....What i am basicly saying is, as long as there is ecpectation & anticipation for more good news, then its worth holding for the time being..... sure it will bob around and may even briefly go back down to 8p, but as long as there is.... """"An-air-of-expectation""".... it will remain bouyent untill the results in April at least.
Copied from iii>>>>>
--------------------------------------------
Historically.... the absence of any news tends to make share prices to drift aimlessly and over a period of time it becomes a drift downwards!!
Lets consider what News Flow we can expect over the next couple of months for FTO!!...
We have the news of what will be done with the cash from the sale of Bluesky........ and it will be interesting to see what ideas the new CEO is going to come up with, as Im sure they would not have taken on someone with his experience and qualifications without something in mind, and Im looking forward to the "Final Report" for 2003 due out in April.....
So there is an Air-of-expectation to keep the price going for at least a couple of months yet.
"Orial Securities" estimate that pre-tax profit for 2003 will be 5.10 Million and 7.40 Million for 2004 (an increase of 45%) and as long as the forth-coming results don't disappoint on these figures then we can expect to see FTO go from strength to strength!!
Its possible we may see bit of a lull in the price during the summer months, but as things are looking good for the future its well worth holding for the long term!
Given time I expect Fortune to get way up into double figures eventualy.
Look at "African Diamonds".... "Dragon Oil".... "Oxus Mining" and others as examples if anyone doubts me!!
Kind Regards John
bosley
- 23 Feb 2004 10:59
- 75 of 196
hi rothschild (john) thank you for the reassuring words . i agree that there is an air of expectation about the share . according to the shares article blue sky sold for much more than people thought it would so fortunes other holdings would be revalued . would be interesting to see some new valuations. anybody heard any news about this ?
FirstCall
- 23 Feb 2004 19:52
- 76 of 196
R.P.
Quote: ""Orial Securities" estimate that pre-tax profit for 2003 will be 5.10 Million and 7.40 Million for 2004 (an increase of 45%)"
The 5.1m figure puts FTO on a PER of 112.5 (on share price of 9p)
and 7.4m gives PER 77.5 on same 9p price.
To me this appears a little on the expensive side (at 9p that is). I may be wrong.
When were Orial's figures last updated?
Is there any chance that results for 2004 could be much higher?
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 23 Feb 2004 23:39
- 77 of 196
Highlights of an exclusive interview with George Soros on CCTV Monday 23rd February 2004
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
""Quote""
(1) "China is in a very, very, positive environment!!
(2) There's been a huge increase of money in China with no inflation, this has resulted in a lot of surplus money flowing into Real Estate in recent years, but this is coming to an end and that money will now flow into the stock market.
(3) On the question of the value of yuan (Chinese Currency) there are two options.....
(a) The value of the yuan will have to be increased against the US Dollar or..... (b) it will have to be tied to a basket of currencies.....
At the end of the day I expect a compromise to be made between these two options!!
""Unquote""
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The question of the revaluation of the yuan has been talked about for some time now and looks inevitable that its value will increase!!
Presumably "Fortune Oil" carry on there business with the use of this currency, however, will this revaluation have any affect on the earnings of FTO...??
Personally I think it will have some affect, but since the value of the dollar has been falling will it be just a case of stabilising the value of FTO once the change has been made???
Any thoughts any one??
Regards John
PS. FirstCall.... these are figures made prevoiusly by Orial... and I think the 2004 results will be higher on the basis of on-going-things and the re-valuation of the Chinese currency ..... but thats imho.
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 26 Feb 2004 17:32
- 79 of 196
Well was that a bit of tree shaking going on today!!??
The MM's started it off in negative territory which soon brought out the sellers, then brought out the bargain hunters as it dropped even further!!
only to finish up on the plus side.
I think we will see some more of this sort of thing going on until we have some news coming through or we are within striking distance of the results, when it should once again test the 10 pence level!!
After IC's recommendation last week at 9p, some of the buys around 8p today were at a bargain price!!.
I think the risk of any negative news flow is very very small now and eventualy the price will reflect this!!
Regards John
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 28 Feb 2004 07:53
- 80 of 196
After recent steep gains and price fluctuations followed by a drop in traded volumes, we can now expect the price to consolidate some what, also investors would have bought on recent recommendations and will still hold, thus helping to provide support at around current levels.
ckmtang
- 05 Mar 2004 12:30
- 81 of 196
still looking good....
basharat
- 07 Mar 2004 16:47
- 82 of 196
oh its a definite winner and i am holding on to it
emailpat
- 02 Apr 2004 15:04
- 84 of 196
Disposal now worth 49.8 million- but share price going south ?
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 02 Apr 2004 16:44
- 85 of 196
Some good news ....
Regards John
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LONDON (AFX) -
Fortune Oil PLC's shareholders will get an unexpected
windfall if the company's planned sale of Fortune Aviation Holding Ltd to China
Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp Ltd goes ahead.
Fortune said on Feb 5 that it will hold anextraordinary general meeting to
approve the deal on April 19.
Since that date the value of the cash and shares deal has increased as the
value of CAO's shares have jumped 67 pct.
The share portion of the purchase price has consequently risen from about
17.6 mln stg to about 29.5 mln stg and the overall value of the deal has
increased from about 31.8 mln stg to about 49.8 mln stg.
newsdesk@afxnews.com
jc
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Andy
- 03 Apr 2004 10:21
- 86 of 196
RP,
good spot, and that deal is starting to look more and more interesting!
ckmtang
- 03 Apr 2004 10:59
- 87 of 196
that mean the value of FTO will double soon.
goss
- 04 Apr 2004 17:58
- 88 of 196
Being new to the world of buying and selling shares what does the above really mean in share price terms. I brought into these some months ago and am still holding for FTO's next move.
carrickman
- 04 Apr 2004 21:24
- 89 of 196
have held fortune oil for many years, should i buy sell or hold.
ckmtang
- 05 Apr 2004 11:50
- 90 of 196
do anyone know what expected gain for?
Andy
- 17 Apr 2004 22:00
- 91 of 196
ttt
Andy
- 19 Apr 2004 16:05
- 92 of 196
Fortune Oil PLC
19 April 2004
19 APRIL 2004
FORTUNE OIL PLC
('Fortune Oil' or 'the Company')
RESULT OF EXTRAORDINARY GENERAL MEETING
NOTICE OF PRELIMINARY RESULTS
Fortune Oil is pleased to announce that at an Extraordinary General Meeting held today, the ordinary resolution to approve the proposed disposal (the 'Disposal')of Fortune Aviation Holding Limited, which owns a 24.5 per cent. interest in South China Bluesky Aviation Oil Co., Limited, to China Aviation Oil (Singapore)Corporation Ltd ('CAO') was duly passed.
Completion of the disposal will take place as set out in Part III of the
circular to shareholders dated 2 April 2004.
Fortune Oil intends to announce its preliminary results for the year ended 31
December 2003 on 28 April 2004.
ENQUIRIES:
Fortune Oil PLC Tel: 020 7589 2233 (UK)
Bruce McGowan - Executive Vice Chairman Tel: 00 852 2583 3113 (Hong Kong)
John Pexton - Deputy Chief Executive
Oriel Securities Limited Tel: 020 7710 7600
Simon Bragg
Natalie Fortescue
ICIS Limited Tel: 020 7628 1114
Archie Berens or 07802 442 486
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
STORMCALLER
- 19 Apr 2004 18:57
- 93 of 196
ANDY,
I need to know where you got the chart you posted on the 24th Feb as it seems to have predicted very accurately the following 6 weeks trading, or have you edited it? if not everyone needs that info ?!?
On a more realistic note it seems to my uneducated eye that this chart appears to be developing a healthy support level @ 7p any views from the chart experts?
Andy
- 21 Apr 2004 00:18
- 94 of 196
Stormcaller,
that chart automatically updates daily.
It is form a free website,
www.bigcharts.com
They have information from all major world markets, and you don't need to register, although it pays to "save" the settings you choose, so that when you return to the site from the same PC, they are automatically ready for you.
You have to prefix the country code, then the epic, so Fortune oil is UK:FTO, and Nuevo Energy Co., on the US market would be US:NEV.
hope this helps, but if you need any furthr info, will be pleased to help.
With regard to the current FTO chart, I agree support does seem to be developing at 7p.
STORMCALLER
- 21 Apr 2004 00:21
- 95 of 196
ANDY,
That's very useful info, and thank you for very prompt reply,
Regards
SC
hlyeo98
- 24 Apr 2004 17:28
- 96 of 196
Fortune Oil has a potential to reach 12p in end of summer, 2004
ckmtang
- 24 Apr 2004 17:50
- 97 of 196
result comming out this comming week
chartist2004
- 24 Apr 2004 19:27
- 98 of 196
Y all the dumping on Fri, or is Fri dumping day in general?
hlyeo98
- 26 Apr 2004 19:59
- 99 of 196
Result coming out on 28/04/2004. It is most definitive to be positive news. Buy at 7p. It is bound to go higher.
bosley
- 27 Apr 2004 12:24
- 100 of 196
a good set of results should see it feature in shares mag again i think .good news and coverage should push price up again . 10, 12p very possible .
bosley
- 27 Apr 2004 16:41
- 101 of 196
starting to rise now in anticipation of a good set of figures tomorrow . i think there could be more rises tomorrow too.
hlyeo98
- 27 Apr 2004 20:44
- 102 of 196
Well said, Bosley! Fortune Oil will be on the run tomorrow when the result comes out. It is undervalued and 7p is a buy. Target would be 12-15p. It is cash-rich.
dick dasterdly
- 27 Apr 2004 22:11
- 103 of 196
check out EEN going same way but quicker.............
ckmtang
- 28 Apr 2004 07:12
- 104 of 196
what time is the result come out
jammyjimmy
- 28 Apr 2004 12:50
- 105 of 196
ckmtang
Results out on 29th (Thursday)
ckmtang
- 29 Apr 2004 07:32
- 106 of 196
it still hasn`t come out yet.....
crostrad
- 29 Apr 2004 08:47
- 107 of 196
Can anybody tell me what the "unexpected windfall" for shareholders is likely to be ?
shekarri1
- 29 Apr 2004 10:19
- 108 of 196
crostrad
The deal for sale of Fortune Aviation to China Aviation formalised at the EGM on 19 April. Since agreeing the figures the share portion of the deal has increased to shareholders in FTO in value from 17.6m to 29.5m and the whole deal enhanced in value from 31.8m to 49.8m.
However, I do worry at the succession of delays in publishing the EOY figures.
Best regards
crostrad
- 29 Apr 2004 11:17
- 109 of 196
Thanks for that,--Would I have to have held shares on a certain date to benefit from the deal ? I have been in and out of Fortune (sounds like hard times) since
February this year--odds on that I will slip down the crack!
STORMCALLER
- 29 Apr 2004 11:33
- 110 of 196
Report has finally arrived.
No show stoppers as such, but immediate future of share price entirely dependent upon confirmation of Blue Sky sale which is still awaited, test of nerve methinks !
ckmtang
- 29 Apr 2004 11:59
- 111 of 196
good report.
shekarri1
- 29 Apr 2004 12:58
- 112 of 196
crostrad
shouldn't think so. There is no ex-div date as they are not paying a final and the deal itself is not yet final.
I imagine that they will announce a qualifying date for interims if the deal goes through and pay out as a component of the interim.
goss
- 29 Apr 2004 18:05
- 113 of 196
Just got back from work expecting to see some rise in the FTO shares and a conclusions to this unexpected windfall. Very new to the game and don't really understand what going on. I understand the price of FTO Aviation has increased in price but to receive a windfall!!!!!! I brought my shares via a broker!!! They just give you extra in shares or something???
Anyway, hoping someone can sort me out as I have been up before work looking for movement. Still a good buy I think.
bosley
- 29 Apr 2004 18:40
- 114 of 196
dont think anyone knows exactly what form the windfall will take until after the sale is completed. could be just bigger profits for next year , or maybe a special dividend payment .
princess
- 30 Apr 2004 11:04
- 115 of 196
WOW! This one's dropping like a stone!
I HATE oil stocks! Or is it a MM tree-shake?
bosley
- 30 Apr 2004 11:22
- 116 of 196
got to be a tree shake . theres f**k all wrong with the results and with the company. potential upside when the aviation deal goes through could be great . unless somebody out there knows of a problem.......
daviesnc
- 30 Apr 2004 11:22
- 117 of 196
Me too - lying bunch of.......I expect half us are bloody traders with axes to grind..come on you chickens...show yourselves !!, still I'm hooked o this forn of GAMBLING...so there it is
daviesnc
- 30 Apr 2004 11:23
- 118 of 196
What aviation deal ?
highinterest
- 30 Apr 2004 11:26
- 119 of 196
what the hell? maybe they've got wind of the cao deal falling through. i hate it when there are leaks but i'm beggared it i'll be panicked into selling. in fact my inclination is to top up but they raise and lower the price so quickly with fto that it changes before i can push the buy button.
chartist2004
- 30 Apr 2004 11:26
- 120 of 196
SUJEEVANN ~ how wrong 'one' can be! ref your pose of 03/11.03 !!!!!
bosley
- 30 Apr 2004 11:27
- 121 of 196
this aviation deal.
Fortune Oil shareholders to get unexpected gain from planned aviation ops sale
AFX
LONDON (AFX) - Fortune Oil PLC's shareholders will get an unexpected windfall if the company's planned sale of Fortune Aviation Holding Ltd to China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp Ltd goes ahead.
Fortune said on Feb 5 that it will hold an extraordinary general meeting to approve the deal on April 19.
Since that date the value of the cash and shares deal has increased as the value of CAO's shares have jumped 67 pct.
The share portion of the purchase price has consequently risen from about 17.6 mln stg to about 29.5 mln stg and the overall value of the deal has increased from about 31.8 mln stg to about 49.8 mln stg.
bosley
- 30 Apr 2004 11:29
- 122 of 196
but its still awaiting clearance from the government. from results yesterday
In early 2004 we accepted an offer to sell our 24.5% stake in Bluesky to China
Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation Limited ('CAO'). We took the view that the
offered consideration, including shares and options in CAO, represented an
attractive value for our shareholders and the disposal was approved by
shareholders. However, we have subsequently been informed that CAO are still
waiting for final approval by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration
Commission of China for issue of CAO shares to Fortune Oil. As a result
completion has not yet taken place, but we have been working closely with CAO on
this and we will inform shareholders as soon as we have more information.
mcmahons
- 30 Apr 2004 11:37
- 123 of 196
This beggers belief good results excellent medium to long term outlook expansion into Gas and a terminal working at full capacity taking over 10% of China's oil imports. Who's at play me asks! Time to buy me thinks!
jammyjimmy
- 30 Apr 2004 12:09
- 124 of 196
Could it have something to do with the Chinese government's statement abour slowing down future growth?
game_boy
- 30 Apr 2004 12:23
- 125 of 196
The China 'problem' is way overstated IMO.....Chinese officials are starting to say so too...especially for infrastructure projects such as FTO are involved in...
China acts to calm investor fears
By James Kynge in Beijing and Richard McGregor in Shanghai
Published: April 29 2004 20:31 | Last Updated: April 29 2004 20:31
Stock and commodity prices tumbled on Thursday as investors worried over confused reports that China was slamming the credit brakes on its economic boom. But after Asian markets closed, Beijing explained it had much milder intentions.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), the banking regulator, announced it had requested only that commercial banks should not rush to approve loans before the May holiday if those loans had been scheduled for next month. China holds a week-long holiday from Saturday.
Such rushing of loan approvals was undesirable because it could skew monthly loan growth figures at a time when policymakers are trying to ascertain how effective recent steps to tighten monetary policy have been.
The regulator also urged banks to favour lending for public infrastructure such as coal, power, oil, transport and water supply projects, to ease some of the bottlenecks restraining the Chinese economy and adding upward pressure to prices.
Lastly, the CBRC stressed that banks should be careful to provision for bad loans properly and improve performance standards at branches. But if loans were granted this week, banks should honour the commitments, it said.
The explanation from the regulator struck a milder tone than media reports that Beijing had issued a moratorium on new lending until May 1. Those reports were also inconsistent with the testimony of several banks, which said lending was continuing as normal or had only been partly curbed.
An executive at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the country's largest state bank, said the bank's credit activities were the same as ever. China Merchant Bank, a commercial bank, had curbed loans to enterprises but not to individuals, an executive said.
An Agricultural Bank executive said checks on mortgage borrowers had become more stringent but otherwise there was no effect. But in the Shanghai branch of the Bank of Communications, all lending had stopped until May 1.
The mixed picture was consistent with Beijing's policy of resisting the use of blunt instruments to curb over-investment in some parts of the Chinese economy.
Wen Jiabao, prime minister, has often stressed that China will not use "one knife cuts all" measures to engineer a slowdown.
However, investors in the stock, commodity and currency markets were unsettled by rumours that China was killing off credit expansion as a precursor to raising interest rates for the first time since 1995.
The Hang Seng Index fell 1.31 per cent, or 159.73 points, to 12,005.58 points, its lowest close since November 25 last year. The China Enterprise Index, which groups Chinese firms, fell 4.54 per cent to 4,069.79 points.
The Australian dollar touched a five-month low as commodities and commodity-based currencies were sold off on fears of an abrupt Chinese slowdown.
Some senior Chinese officials have started to mention the possibility of raising interest rates, but most commentators say this is unlikely until the People's Bank of China (PBoC), the central bank, has had a chance to observe how its latest measures to rein in credit growth have worked.
This month the PBoC raised the ratio of deposits that commercial banks must keep on deposit with the central bank, draining liquidity out of the market.
Wang Mengkui, director of the development research centre of the State Council - the Chinese cabinet - told the Financial Times last week that China's economy would slow this year to 8.5 per cent, following a 9.1 per cent official growth rate last year.
daviesnc
- 30 Apr 2004 12:24
- 126 of 196
I work in the Aviation business, and we have extensive dealing with China (inc china Airlines), I know that they can really play cat and mouse...to the point of insanity, if the stakes are high enough . also the Chinese Govt. departments can best be described as 'opaque' in their dealings with outsiders. I am not surprised at last-minute volte-face's and delays - Keep your powoder dry......
game_boy
- 30 Apr 2004 12:29
- 127 of 196
This FT article is what spooked investors in FTO today.....looks like many panicked and sold.....buyers coming back in now at bargain price !!
Fortune Oil's Chinese asset sale delayed
By Friederike Tiesenhausen Cave
Published: April 29 2004 16:40 | Last Updated: April 29 2004 16:40
Fortune Oil, the energy group focused on China, has suffered a setback with the planned sale of its largest asset because of delays in receiving approval from the Chinese regulator.
John Pexton, who became deputy chief executive in February, said: "We obviously hope [the transaction] will happen in the near future. Though the problem with any state bureaucracy is that you just don't know."
Fortune agreed in February to sell its 24.5 per cent stake in Bluesky, a jet fuel company, to China Aviation Oil (CAO) for a mix of cash and shares. But completion of the deal has been hampered by China's state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which has so far not cleared the issue of CAO shares to Fortune.
Due to a strong rise in CAO's share price, the Bluesky deal would now be worth about 43.5m compared with 31.8m in February. completing the disposal will be critical for the company's 2004 profits, as the value of deal currently stands at about a third of Fortune's market capitalisation.
Fortune, which is staking its future on China's surging demand for energy, yesterday said it wanted to invest further in downstream natural gas projects. In November, it took an 80 per cent stake in a joint venture with a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the state holding company that controls most of the domestic natural gas supplies.
China last year overtook Japan as the world's second largest importer and consumer of crude oil after the USA. To reduce pollution from coal and other fuels, the country's government aims to increase the share of natural gas in primary energy consumption from the current three to six to eight per cent by 2010.
Thursday's news came as Fortune reported full-year results, which were delayed by a day because of the uncertainty involving Bluesky. The company said full-year profits for 2003 were 1.3m compared with 1.1m in 2002, leading to earnings per share of 0.09p (0.08p). Turnover increased by 22 per cent to 99m (80.9m). No dividend was proposed. Fortune shares closed up 1/8 p at 7p.
FT Comment:
As one of the few foreign companies that have direct exposure to China's insatiable energy appetite, Fortune could live up to its name if it manages to carve out a slice of the growing natural gas market.
But Thursday's news served as a timely reminder nothing goes without co-operation of the state authorities. Even though the Bluesky deal has become a lot more attractive due to the rise in CAO's share price recently, investors new to Fortune might want to stay put until the regulator has approved it.
highinterest
- 30 Apr 2004 12:39
- 128 of 196
i couldn't resist - another 50000 at 6.35. whatever happens to the sale, at this price it will seem like a bargain in six months.
goss
- 30 Apr 2004 12:58
- 129 of 196
highinterest
I followed you. Could not help myself but buy more even more @ 6.25. Its a worth while for the future. This is a nice stock.
Goodluck all.
highinterest
- 30 Apr 2004 13:18
- 130 of 196
good luck goss - that's 120k for me at av 6.6
hlyeo98
- 30 Apr 2004 13:20
- 131 of 196
i followed you guys. Bought in 70000 at 6.5p
blanny19
- 01 May 2004 19:53
- 132 of 196
what about Share's opinion that these shares are expensive now, since they have trebled over last couple of months ?
Any target prices on this one?
ckmtang
- 03 May 2004 10:13
- 133 of 196
i htink stil cheap
hlyeo98
- 03 May 2004 14:24
- 134 of 196
Yes I agree in view of its exposure in China and it has improved its profit and EPS.
hlyeo98
- 03 May 2004 14:24
- 135 of 196
blanchard1
- 03 May 2004 17:59
- 137 of 196
Are we hopeful that the Chinese authorities are going to allow the sale? IMO it's always expected that things never run smoothly, but you get there in the end c.f. buying a new house - when all looks to be collapsing, the deal goes through.
If the Chinese do block the sale, what is the worst that can happen?
barnymam
- 04 May 2004 11:39
- 139 of 196
China cannot import enough oil at the moment, needs more and more and more. This is a great time to stock up on FTO - its should be heading north fast - use this period of false worry about the deal to build up a bigger holding, IMO.
blanny
- 04 May 2004 13:17
- 140 of 196
Why the huge drop today ????
bosley
- 04 May 2004 13:21
- 141 of 196
uncertainty , i think , blaney. the delay on the blue sky sale makes a big difference to the numbers. some people dont want to take the gamble and hold. personally i dont see any reason to sell at the moment. at least wait until news is out.
bosley
- 05 May 2004 10:09
- 143 of 196
annoncement this morning.
re Bluesky Sales Contract
The Board of Fortune Oil Plc ('the Company') announces that its wholly-owned
subsidiary, Fortune Oil PRC Holdings Limited ('Fortune Oil PRC'), has agreed
with China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation Limited ('CAO') to extend the
date for fulfilment of the outstanding conditions in regard to the sale of its
interest in South China Bluesky Aviation Oil Co., Limited ('Bluesky'), to 30
July 2004. Completion of the sale of Bluesky will take place 7 business days
after the outstanding conditions have been fulfilled. Fortune Oil PRC will
remain entitled to the same benefits as if the transaction had completed prior
to 7 May 2004.
A further announcement will follow in due course.
looks like we will have to hold until july but its still reassuring that things are progressing positively
anotherxiii
- 05 May 2004 12:00
- 144 of 196
Hi
thats better than nothing
but does ' remain entitled to the same benefits as if the transcation had completed prior to May 7' mean that we will not benefit from any further increase in the CAO share price??
if it does then presumable it also means that we shall not be exposed to any fall in that share price.....this may be a little more relevant as China stock is taking a 'rest' right now
iii is down again!!!!!!!!!!!
rgds
longinvest
- 05 May 2004 12:25
- 145 of 196
Chain Aviation Oil (Singapore) fell by 25% over night, no reason given given on their website. I don't know if the masive fall had something to do with the delay in the deal but it looks worrying to me.
hlyeo98
- 05 May 2004 22:35
- 146 of 196
I think it is time to top up to take advantage.
bosley
- 06 May 2004 12:47
- 147 of 196
up slightly today . i think people are realising that its just a slight delay and nothing too much to worry about . fto are experienced operaters in china and know how their system works.they dont sound overly concerned about the delay to me.
bosley
- 07 May 2004 13:13
- 148 of 196
down at dinner today . this is what undertainty does.
longinvest
- 07 May 2004 14:41
- 150 of 196
I too have faith in the Company and increased my holding yesterday. I discovered the following article which you may find interesting on MSN.COM which describes the Chinese economy. They have huge energy needs that hopefully Fortune can capitalise on.
Jubak's Journal
3 big threats to Chinas economic miracle
advertisement
China won't remain an export superpower forever. Food and energy shortages and the growing influence of multinationals like Wal-Mart could change everything.
By Jim Jubak
To many people in the United States, the China story goes like this: A huge emerging industrial power eats U.S. jobs and buries the U.S. economy under a mountain of cheap imports while erecting barriers to U.S. goods. The only suspense in that story is whether America will fight back or simply roll over.
That storys easy to grasp, and theres enough real pain in the U.S. economy these days over lost jobs to China to give it emotional clout.
Unfortunately, its wrong.
It's much more complicated
That story is too narrowly focused on the relationship between the United States and China. In fact, China (with a big assist from other big-population developing economies such as India and Vietnam) is a leading player in a global economic makeover that presents much of the rest of the world with challenges that dwarf any U.S. problems.
And the ending of the story is nowhere near as cut-and-dried as it sometimes seems from the United States. Its much too early to assume we know how it will turn out, who the main characters will be and even when the climax will take place.
Another version of the story
Let me give you another global version of this story, at least as we know it so far. It gives full weight to the twists and turns, surprise dead ends and sudden plot reversals that make the China story equal to anything that Charles Dickens wrote.Meet Jim Jubak
at the Las Vegas
Money Show -- for free.
Ill start my China story with Korea. In the United States, were obsessed with our trade deficits with China, and rightly so. In 2003, we ran a huge trade deficit of $542 billion (or almost 5% of GDP) with the world: China alone accounted for $124 billion of that total.
But China runs a huge trade deficit with the rest of the world. In 2003, China imported $23 billion more from Korea than it exported.
For years, the huge U.S. economy has been Koreas biggest export market. American consumers gobbled up cars from Hyundai Motor (HYMLF, news, msgs), air conditioners from LG Electronics and wireless phones from Samsung Electronics (SSNLF, news, msgs).
But no more. In 2003, Korean exports to China surged 48% to $35 billion, and China became Koreas No. 1 customer, absorbing 18.1% of all Korean exports.
The situation is much the same throughout Asia. China ran a $7 billion trade deficit with the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN -- Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore among others). Japan has been a major exception, but even Japan ran a trade surplus with China in February, the first monthly trade surplus for Japan with China in 10 years.
Whats causing these huge deficits? The existing economic order in Asia has China importing a lot of the expensive high-technology parts that its cheap labor then turns into finished products. Add in the growing Chinese demand for high-technology consumer products and, wham! Trade deficits with Korea, Singapore and Malaysia explode.
Will Korea and others face the same problems we face?
But this story looks like its about to take its first big narrative twist. You see, Korea remains an export-driven economy. Koreas economy grew 3.1% in 2003. Exports generated 98.2% of that economic growth..
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Related news and commentary on MSN Money When China brakes, the world slows
You need to invest in China, but how?
China is no job-stealing bully
Read the most recent news in Market Dispatch
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
That would be swell, except that its already clear that China has no intention of remaining the backward neighbor that trades low-tech goods for Koreas high-tech exports. By 2010, China could be on a par with Korea in wireless handsets, computer and TV displays, petrochemicals, and refrigeration systems, the Korea Development Institute estimates. By 2011, Korea could be facing a trade deficit with its bigger neighbor.
From there, the story could be a replay of the U.S.-China subplot with China becoming an export engine that swamps the economies of its neighbors with cheap but increasingly high-technology goods.
But will it? If you read the global story carefully, youll find potential plot twists that put this ending in doubt.
Let me provide you three.
China faces a potential two-part agricultural crisis. As incomes rise in China, demand for chicken, beef, wheat, vegetable oil, and corn increases. At the same time, however, the amount of arable land in China has been falling, thanks to factors ranging from an encroaching desert in the west and north, to runaway industrial and residential development that has gobbled up some of the countrys best farmland. This is no small problem in a country that must feed 20% of the worlds population on 7% of the worlds farmland.
The Chinese government has long had a goal of self-sufficiency in food production. Today, China imports only about 3% of its agricultural needs, about the same as in 1994, according to UBS Ltd. But despite efforts to promote domestic production, to limit new development on farmable land and even to reduce the acreage being planted in trees to hold back the desert, the acreage devoted to crops is falling.
Only by drawing down the countrys massive food stockpiles has China been able to limit imports. That policy is probably good for another year or so, experts say, but, after that, China may need to import more agricultural products -- probably at higher prices. (Global wheat prices are up 20% in the last year.) Efforts to prop up domestic production are likely to divert some internal investment away from the industrial sector.
Plot twist: The countrys need to import food puts increasing strain on the Chinese economy and will shift global trading power toward the worlds biggest food exporters. Some of these happen to be the biggest markets for Chinese exports as well.
China runs a huge energy deficit that will only get larger. Ten years ago, China was a net exporter of crude oil. In 2004, China overtook Japan to become the worlds second-largest importer of oil, behind only the United States.
That has set China racing to lock up reliable sources of oil before the rest of an oil-hungry world does. Earlier this year, Sinopec, the Chinese chemical and oil refining conglomerate, was awarded a gas-exploration license in Saudi Arabias Rub al-Khali basin. China National Petroleum and Sinopec signed production deals in the Sudan when Western investors pulled out. The companies are moving ahead with plans to build a new refinery even as the countrys civil war rages. In January, China signed a 30-year deal to buy crude oil from the west African nation of Gabon. And China inked a $21 billion deal to buy liquefied natural gas from Australia.
But securing oil supplies is only part of the solution. China is also suffering from a huge domestic shortage of electric power. Last summer, rolling blackouts shut factories in 21 of the countrys 31 provinces. Chinas shortage of generating capacity hit 44,850 megawatts in 2003, up 120% from 20,350 megawatts in 2002, the Development Research Center of China reported. As youd expect, Chinese investment in the power-generating sector climbed by almost 20% in 2003 and then speeded up to a 60% rate of increase (year-over-year) in early 2004. Investments in the sector accounted for 20% of Chinas total industrial investments in early 2004.
Plot twist: Chinas need to invest in its energy sector limits the countrys economic growth at the same time as the countrys aggressive hunt for oil damages relations with its oil-hungry trading partners.
Real economic power in China increasingly is in the hands of multinational corporations. Just like any other nation-state in the 21st century.
China probably has a better chance of winning a battle or two against Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, news, msgs) than a Vermont village does in trying to keep the discount chain out. Chinas odds of winning the war, however, arent good.
In February, the China Daily trumpeted a story headlined Domestic Retailers Keep Stranglehold that proudly noted that the Shanghai Bailian Group topped the rankings of the countrys biggest retailers in 2003. Plus, Chinese companies claimed the top four spots.
But the trend certainly isnt running in favor of the Chinese companies. Six overseas retailers, including Wal-Mart and Europes Carrefour (CRERF, news, msgs) and Metro (DE:725750, news, msgs) also cracked the list in 2003. That was first time foreign retailers made the top 30. Moreover, the foreign retailers accounted for 18% of the sales of the top 30 retailers.
And this is before the Chinese lift restrictions on capital structure and location, changes mandated by the countrys entry into the World Trade Organization.
This isnt the most telling sign of the way the battle between the traditional nation-state and the multinational corporation is going in China. Last year, Wal-Mart bought an estimated $15 billion in goods from China. Thats more than the $14 billion the 10 member-nations of the ASEAN imported from China in 2003. Projections say that Wal-Marts sourcing from China will hit $25 billion within three years.
With that volume comes power over the Chinese economy that mere countries such as Thailand or Korea cant hope to wield. Wal-Mart has been known to demand that its suppliers change their bookkeeping systems and improve their logistics to meet tight delivery schedules. In exchange for Wal-Mart contracts, Chinese companies have been required to open up their books to Wal-Mart and cut prices if Wal-Mart decides the suppliers profit margins are too fat. The Wal-Mart system is enforced by 200 Wal-Mart staffers from procurement centers in Shenzhen and Shanghai. Not only do they monitor suppliers, they also stay on the lookout for replacement suppliers that can do the work for less.
Other global retailers are moving to gain the same kind of control over their Chinese suppliers. Carrefour and Target (TGT, news, msgs) have recently opened their own procurement centers in Shanghai and Shenzhen, respectively.
Plot twist: Like other nation-states have discovered, economic sovereignty in the 21st century aint what it used to be. The battle over who has the power -- the countries that produce the goods or the companies that control access to customers -- is just beginning.
And as these three examples suggest, we still have chapters and chapters to read before we know how the China story will come out.
In my next column, the last in this three-part series, Ill take a far less global look at how the China story is likely to change life as we live it in these United States.
apple
- 07 May 2004 16:07
- 152 of 196
longinvest
Many thanks for that!
I would like to read his next column, what is the URL?
bosley
- 08 May 2004 12:58
- 153 of 196
price of oil is now nearly 40 dollars. surely thats good for ftpo?
hlyeo98
- 08 May 2004 13:35
- 154 of 196
Fortune Oil is tipped as a buy in Investor's Chronicle this week.
ckmtang
- 08 May 2004 16:23
- 155 of 196
any prediction for next week?
ckmtang
- 09 May 2004 17:24
- 157 of 196
do anyone spot any news this weekend?
hlyeo98
- 09 May 2004 21:04
- 158 of 196
I am sure Fortune Oil will go up in view of rising oil price.
ckmtang
- 10 May 2004 06:39
- 159 of 196
Analysts reckon oil price will hit $50/barrel soon
AFX
$50/barrel could be reached within weeks, says analysts to Sunday Times
Analysts warn oil prices, which reached a near 14-year high of 40 usd a barrel on Friday, could hit 50 usd in the coming weeks, said the Sunday Times newspaper.
'Fifty dollars a barrel is perfectly possible if we get the wrong sort of headlines from the Middle East,' the paper quoted Kevin Norrish, an analyst at Barclays Capital, as saying.
In the UK, petrol prices topped 80 pence a litre last week and rising crude prices, together with widening refinery margins, are widely expected to push up prices further.
The Bank of England, which publishes its quarterly inflation report this week, will say dearer oil and commodities are likely to push UK inflation towards its 2 pct target, said the paper. Economists expect the Bank, which raised the base rate from 4 pct to 4.25 pct on Thursday, to signal that further increases will be needed to keep inflation on track.
ckmtang
- 10 May 2004 09:21
- 160 of 196
not rise??/
carrickman
- 10 May 2004 19:52
- 161 of 196
OPEC to increase production, how will this effect fortune oil's share price
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 10 May 2004 20:30
- 162 of 196
Correction..... hlyeo98
Investors Chronical said Fortune is "Good Value" not "A Buy"
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 10 May 2004 23:10
- 163 of 196
Major oil stocks have been hit just as hard as any other today!
Its all down to concerns about the expected interest rate rise in the US, probably in June and mounting concerns about the situation in the Middle East reducing oil supplies, just as the annual summer demand for petrol, (particularly in the States) is due to go up..... (compounding the shortage).
Its the overall affect on world economy that's driving the market down, outweighing any positive-ness oil stocks might have gained from the increase in the price of Oil.....
I think it just confirms what has been said on this board already, that we are in for a bumpy ride until something more positive comes along.
In the mean time it does present some ideal buying opportunities especially if its a good drop.....
I've gained more by buying during such drops than buying when a share is already in flight..... (in-fact I look at the "Highest Percentage Losers" list far more often than the "Highest % Gainers" list for this very reason)......
It takes some guts to do it sometimes but its useful to bear in mind a dramatic drop is often "Overdone" and is well worth buying, especially if its down to sentiment rather than bad news..
John
STORMCALLER
- 11 May 2004 00:15
- 164 of 196
Rothschilds Pigeon,
Agree with general premise but in this case do you think we might still be seeing a bit of market revenge over the undelivered promise of the blue-sky deal? Would like to see a contra-market flat before I look again.
Regards
SC
Rothschilds Pigeon
- 11 May 2004 08:19
- 165 of 196
SC
In my opinion the undelivered promise of the Bluesky deal had already taken place and factored in prior to yesturdays (Mondays) fall......
Theres no doubt in my mind the fall was entirely due to that which affected "The whole worlds" markets yesturday.
Regards John
STORMCALLER
- 12 May 2004 00:34
- 166 of 196
Rothschilds Pigeon,
Wouldn't disagree with you, and to some extent I believe today's showing supports your proposal. My point was that I like to see some original response from a stock, not purely a market sheep reaction, as there has often been a bad smell which lingers after such an event that outlasts the initial sharp reaction, and it is not unusual for a non-sheep response to mark the end of this phase.
Regards
SC
bosley
- 14 May 2004 08:55
- 167 of 196
on the up again today . i think people are realising this is a good buying opportunity .ic tipped fto as a speculative buy while shares are saying sell . nobody seems sure but its worth a punt in my opinion . upside could be good.
saturn5
- 14 May 2004 13:07
- 168 of 196
I think we should be on a winner here
hlyeo98
- 16 May 2004 18:20
- 169 of 196
me 2
dexter01
- 27 May 2004 11:44
- 170 of 196
i know the bluesky hold-up is a pain,but surely it will go through ok. the results were good, were`nt they?.can anyone tell me why they are not moving,the FT website has tipped them as a buy for ages.i`m still keeping mine and hoping
dexter
biffa18
- 09 Jun 2004 10:08
- 171 of 196
volume starting to rise a bit a little MM action as well anyone still watching im holding quite a few expecting a rise as we go into july
Tristan
- 09 Jun 2004 12:12
- 172 of 196
still watching. likewise, would like to see us the other side of 7p!
dpb
- 09 Jun 2004 16:48
- 173 of 196
has the bluesky deal been dumped?is this the reason for the drop.
biffa18
- 09 Jun 2004 18:01
- 174 of 196
drop i would say is just market sentiment not much blue about these days but there has been MM activity and the drop is very small considering recent rises ,long term baring any china economic probs this i would say is a dead cert over time considering what commodity its providing !!
bosley
- 10 Jun 2004 10:15
- 175 of 196
a pretty tight trading band over the last month . i think this will continue until the blue sky deal is resolved one way or another. i think positibe rumours would get the mms walking the price down to collect shares form weak investors . that would be a good sign for me as i have seen this a few times , prices drops then there is good news and prices rockets . been caught a few times myself like that.
CWMAM
- 20 Jun 2004 16:36
- 176 of 196
CWMAM
- 21 Jun 2004 17:38
- 177 of 196
I have held fortune oil shares for a number of years they are looking good
set to rise again
bosley
- 21 Jun 2004 18:03
- 178 of 196
i think so too . getting closer to july when the blue sky deal should be completed . should be a nice rise upto then .
biffa18
- 22 Jun 2004 11:01
- 179 of 196
A little interest beginning to show rumours of stock building in back ground maybe some hoping but def a share to be watched i think it will move fast poss when deal is done.... dyor
biffa18
- 22 Jun 2004 11:22
- 180 of 196
anyone with L2 for FTO just curious !
bosley
- 24 Jun 2004 08:54
- 181 of 196
anybody heard anything . ?
seawallwalker
- 24 Jun 2004 16:05
- 183 of 196
Andy
Nice!
Can you do the same for Sterling?
Andy
- 24 Jun 2004 16:11
- 184 of 196
Seawallwalker,
Done, please see SEY thread.
bosley
- 25 Jun 2004 08:59
- 185 of 196
good news today
LONDON (AFX) - Fortune Oil PLC said it has entered into new gas joint venture contracts in China.
In a statement given at today's AGM, the group said it has made good progress this year as it seeks to exploit the growth that is forecast in demand for energy of all types in mainland China. Fortune Oil has already positioned itself to take advantage of this anticipated growth, through its involvement in the Beijing Fortune Huiyuan Gas Company Ltd ('Fu Hua Gas').
The new contracts entered into today are for natural gas reticulation in Qufu old and Qufu new districts, Shandong Province, and in Luquan, Hebei Province.
Fortune Oil also updated on the sale of its interest in the Bluesky Aviation Joint Venture.
Concerning the disposal of Fortune Aviation (which holds a 24.5 pct interest in the Bluesky Aviation joint venture), the company said it continues to monitor the approval process by the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of China. The company is confident that completion will take place before the end of July 2004.
Turning to current trading, Fortune Oil said trading across all of its operations remains encouraging. 'With the continued growth in demand in China for crude oil and natural gas, we are confident both of a satisfactory outcome for the current year and of further growth thereafter as we grow our portfolio of energy infrastructure projects in China.'
biffa18
- 27 Jun 2004 23:25
- 186 of 196
anyone know how much they will they get from the sale of bluesky aviation
biffa18
- 28 Jun 2004 13:22
- 187 of 196
up 7% starting to look strong
Cosworth1
- 28 Jun 2004 17:13
- 188 of 196
was.
biffa18
- 28 Jun 2004 18:02
- 189 of 196
350 tho at end looked good i think this has got lots of way to go i said that with jkx at 20p now 115 or so, sadly i sold halfway up !!
biffa18
- 28 Jun 2004 18:02
- 190 of 196
350 tho at end looked good i think this has got lots of way to go i said that with jkx at 20p now 115 or so, sadly i sold halfway up !!
biffa18
- 30 Jun 2004 07:12
- 191 of 196
volumne picking up nicely
ahoj
- 07 Jul 2006 08:44
- 192 of 196
China Southern Airlines buys 50 Airbus A320 planes
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com//07072006/323/china-southern-airlines-buys-50-airbus-a320-planes.html
CWMAM
- 14 Jul 2006 13:22
- 194 of 196
AIR TRAVEL FORECAST TO GROW IN CHINA 8PCT A YEAR FOR TWO DECADES CHINA TO INVEST 17.5 bin usd in aviation sector.
ahoj
- 18 Jul 2006 14:40
- 195 of 196
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/business/7662
Master RSI
- 28 Apr 2008 14:26
- 196 of 196
A breakout is happening