Premarket Futures 23rd Oct

FTSE -8

DAX -1

DOW -9

S&P -0.5

Nasdaq -0.5

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US Stocks stocks closed slightly down with the Dow Jones finishing some 19 points lower after Monday's strong gains. MFI Furniture said its third quarter sales were flat as growth slowed right down during the exceptionally hot summer. Group turnover for the 44 weeks to November 1 rose 16 percent in total to 1.273 billion pounds Shanks waste management firm posted an expected fall in first half profits and said its UK waste services unit was showing signs of improvement. They said profit fell to 14.1 million pounds against 19.1 million a year earlier with analysts forecast of around 13.7 million pounds. Electrocomponents electrical and industrial parts distributor said it did not expect a rapid improvement in trading as they posted a 2.2 percent fall in profit to 45.3 million pounds on 6 month sales up 1.0 percent to 369 million pounds. FirstGroup bus and train company met forecasts with a small rise in first-half profit to 56.8 million pounds after being hit by higher pensions costs and lower rail subsidies. The analysts' forecasts was 56 million pounds Pilkington glass maker reported first-half profits up 11 percent, at the top end of expectations althoughit said trading conditions remained difficult. Profits came in at 84 million pounds compared with analyst estimates of 82.5 million pounds.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
AVEVA Group (I), Shanks (I), Big Yellow Group (I), Electrocomponents (I), FirstGroup (I), MFI Furniture (I), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (Q3), Pilkington (I), Shire Pharmaceuticals (Q3), Volex (I), Yates (I), Fenner (F), Netb2b2 (F)Goodwin (AGM), Redrow (AGM), Sygen International (AGM) JP Morgan Fleming Mid (AGM) Sept industrial/manufacturing (0930) CBI Small and medium enterprises survey (11:00) NIESR GDP estimate (13:00) Bank of England MPC meeting	Cisco Q1, Qualcomm Q4 Watson Pharmaceuticals Q3 15:00 Factory Orders 15:00 ISM Services	Accor F Q3 Adidas-Salomon D Q3 Douglas Holding D Q3 Hugo Boss D Q3 LION Bioscience D Q2
Ex Dividend: Aga Foodservice Group Plc 2.2, Alexandra Plc 1.7, Austin Reed Group Plc 2.5, Beazley Group PLC 0.25, Bloomsbury Publishing Plc 0.474, Chloride Group 0.8, Collins Stewart Tullett PLC 2.5, DFS Furniture Plc 17, European Motor Holdings Plc 3.4, Finsbury Food Group PLC 1, Game Group Plc 0.5, Giardino Group Plc 1.9, Hunting Plc 1.25, Intertek Group PLC 2.9, Jennings Brothers Plc 2.4, Johnston Group Plc 5.25, Laird Group Plc 3, Lincat Group Plc 12.9, Malcolm Group PLC/The 1.7, Marshalls Plc 3.65, Matalan Plc 2.7, Northern 2 VCT PLC 1, Peacock Group Plc 2.5, Quadnetics Group Plc 2, Radamec Group Plc 3, St Ives Group PLC 12.15, Taylor Nelson Sofres PLC 0.95, Ted Baker Plc 3.2, Unilever Plc 6.16, Whitbread PLC 6.15, William Hill PLC 3.5

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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Morning all

Cisco Q1 reporting - mmmmmmmm

Suprised by the dow

Off to bed soon, or I'll never get up in time for the market open!

11/4: Overlapping decline still continuing today, and while it might be an impulse, it is difficult to tell at this degree.
The only thing that would sway the count near term is a decline below 9750 from here as the rapid rally after the triangle says the 5 waves up is complete, and a decline below the 4th wave low makes it more likely to be so...
There is still the 10K fib target, and this might be part of an ending diagonal, and since it isn't a clear impulse, there nothing to do but wait for more of the pattern before making a decision.
An ending diagonal here would be a very fortunate outcome because we should get continued divergence with price and the technicals as waves 3-4-5 play out, and we would have ending diagonals at 2 degrees of trend.
Expect it to take another day or three to complete.




WED FTSE PP

R2 4365
R1 4348
PP 4335
S1 4318
S2 4305

Close was above Tue PP after loosing 4.5pts in the auction!





Updated 11/4 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/5
UP Above 9,870
DN Below 9,820

Sloping Consolidation
Dow pulls back off highs, consolidates.

From prior commentary, "...The index ended the day still holding above the 9,850 resistance level, which implies further strength heading into tomorrow's market. Look for further upside movement if the index continues to hold above this level. Otherwise, a downside break back below 9,850 could make for weakness for tomorrow's market..."
The Dow broke below 9,850 early in the session today, which set the general tone of weakness the remainder of the day, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The pull-back was rather slow and quiet, as the index only lost 20 points on the session.

The index appears to be gearing up for yet another solid push higher, as the Dow is forming a bullish sloping consolidation at the highs of the recent week-long upmove, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.

Downward-sloping consolidations are usually broken to the upside, therefore, we will watch 9,870 for an upside break tomorrow. A break here will likely spark another sharp move higher within the overall uptrend.

The Dow could continue to trend lower within the sloping consolidation before a break either way is seen. A break below 9,820 will be considered bearish and should extend the downmove further.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow traded sideways to the Close, in essence forming a triangle pattern, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch for a break from this range to indicate direction tomorrow morning: 9,830 down, and 9,855 up.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we stopped out of Longs this morning at 9,825, giving us 167 points of profit for the prior trade. We entered the market Short at 9,825, but stopped out with a 20 point loss. We are now out of the market and will watch 9,870 up, and 9,820 down, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each pulled back on the session, but both appear poised to head higher given the potential bullish ranges that have formed. Watch for a break from the ranges to indicate direction tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow pulled back slightly today but continues to look bullish in the overall scheme of things. The index has formed a sloping consolidation that will likely break to the upside. A break through 9,870 will likely make for another rally. Otherwise, a break below 9,820 could extend today's weakness.

Morning all

Morning everyone.

Morning again..... Managed to wake up as the market opened, to find level 2 not working - had breakfast, done the washing up, and still not working.....so off to get dressed, hang washing out.........

little woman, Just made a second pot of coffee and would take the dog for a walk if I had one ;-)

Morning all.

No need to rush little woman, the market is not going to go away. ;-)
I feel like a lazybones amongst all you early birds.

This is more like it, this is what I expected yesterday.
S2 broken and a chance of a trip to the bottom of the trend channel.

Should have waited to get my BT.A. Never mind, you rarely
catch the bottom of anything.

Melnibone.

UK Industrial production takes a surprise 0.2% fall last month

AVZ still coming down nicely. Can't see what will stop it dropping
to its 400p support which is now helped by the 200MA.

May be worth a look at if it gets there. Depends on main market direction
and sentiment. If the market looks weak it could go even further to
the 375p area.

Melnibone

Return a few minutes ago to find L2 working (but not for long), and noticed PRM (a share I'm buying & selling within a 8 point spread, was just starting to go back up, after droping the last 2 days - and my dealing account after letting me login, decided not to do let me do anything. Then L2 stoped working and now PRM is 2.5 points higher, and I have no idea if the trend is up or not!

That is what is so sad, this has lost me money today so I have stopped trading until I can make more sense of the market. Thanks MAM

So croc,

Any idea what's going on with LLOY or PSN? Both are pretty low at the moment - with PSN picking up a bit yesterday - and LLOY, well what can I say?

Lloy fallen below support and I reckon BARC is a good short.
PSN not likely to go up with the rise interest rates to be announced.

Re Level2, MoneyAm source the information through GNI which is down and they are about to implement an alternative supplier.

D.

I took all my money out of my CFD account as I found I didn't like going short.(And found reactions to deals too slow). I suppose I'm just an old fashion investor at heart!

This is really fustrating, I have just noticed PRM are 3.5 up already, and can't decide if I should sell PSN and take my profit, or wait it out...

Too late now on PSN - got too used to relying on L2 to make decisions!

It looks like now L2's back, shares are going up!

Notice that the traders room thread seems to be getting over 300 posts now. And we on the investors room are now averaging 2 figure posts!

Where is everone this afternoon?

quite a fustrating day. Now for the second time GSK reaches R2 and falls back - the big question is will it be third time lucky!

Nope

When I said I expected AVZ to drop to 400p I didn't think
that it would nigh on do it in one day!

There must be some bears sat on fat profits on this one,
I wonder how much of it they'll pocket before 1630.

Melnibone

Melnibone, I know what you mean - so did you go short, or just watch, like I seem to be doing?

Traders room Traders thread just hit 400 posts for the day!

Any clues on the Guesstimate for dow upside /downside today at all??

By the way creamed the dow before for 1600 -great feeling -must be the equivalent of a male orgasm!!!!!!!

rgds
zarif

I know, I saw your post in the tea rooms! It's normally pretty quiet here after 5pm as you seem to be the only person having fun with the dow who posts on this thread about the time. I notice you don't trade the UK markets during the day - I suppose you are busy elsewhere then?

Little woman - also nice to see this thread getting more active. Gettin to the stage where I will have to pop in to check it regularly during the day.

Yes, put you need to post too - or I'll think I'm a broken record - and it's sort of lonely......

Little woman:
Yes -as they say there is no rest for the wicked.
I own a petrol station /mot garage -So in the early morning go there from 6am to about 1pm then start on the markets.
I usually fing the Ftse too slow for me not enough volatility.

Any pointers for early morning markets would be great as i am just arranging for someone else to take care of my other business so i can do this full time.

rgds
zarif

Just keep doing what you are doing!

I must admit I do prefer the slower market as I can't spend all my time watching what's going on. (I think that why I didn't get on with CFD's - I kept missing what was going on, and got very annoyed with it!)

Hi little woman,
No, I didn't short AVZ. I like to keep things simple and use
Trend/Support/Resistance.

Trend is currently up so I don't try and fight it.
What I look for is opportunities to buy stocks on support and
if I think everying is way over bought I sometimes look to short the
FTSE.

When the bear returns and the trend turns I'll be looking to short the
FTSE on the bounces and ignore stocks unless they get a big bounce for
no apparent reason except a Bear Squeeze.

Melnibone

Just another word on shorting a rising market.

The world and his dog are waiting for the US payroll numbers.
US markets are just range trading near their highs whilst they wait.
If they come in strong the DOW will head off towards 10,000
and take the S@P with it. There will be a big bear short
squeeze that will accelerate the process.

What do you think would happen to you if you happened to be
short a FTSE stock?
Unless your stop is one of the paid for guarenteed variety
you will be joining a long stack of closing Bears and buying
Bulls watching the price rocket with no sellers.

Melnibone

Well said melnibourne.
any ideas on the dow today as seems in a stupor today around 9800 +/-15 say for the last hour atleast.

what topside do you think it will achieve if any today?


rgds
zarif

Hi zarif,

My guess on the Dow would be no better than yours or anyone
elses.

As I said, it will just range trade. Where it finishes will
just depend on which part of the cycle it's in as it nears the close.

If the Bears are in profit it will rise towards the close as they
trouser their profits.
If the Bulls are in profit it will drop as they trouser their profit.

I doubt any position traders are taking new positions, this will
just be price movement by the day-traders.

Melnibone

thanking u for your wisdom and quite correct aswell.

rgds
zarif

A couple of days ago I mentioned on this thread about trading
RBS as a proxy for the FTSE.
Treat the pence on RBS as points.

Today the FTSE had a 42 point range and dropped 27 points.
Today RBS had a 42 pence(points) range and dropped 29 pence(points)

For every 1 a point you trade the FTSE you put approx 4300 up front
on a 3 point spread.

For every 1 a pence(point) you trade RBS you put approx 1580 up front
for what is often a 2 pence(point) spread.

Think about it.

Melnibone