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FTSE -15

DAX -20

DOW -35

S&P -3.6

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News:	Sorry Your browser is not java capable
Despite positive news in the tech sector U.S. stock markets sank lower on profit taking with the Nasdaq down 29.10, Dow Jones, down 53.26 and the S&P 500 down 6.10. Canary Wharf, No guaranteed bid. Kingfisher said its sales growth slowed in the third quarter, as it had anticipated due to very hot summer weather but tight control of stocks and costs reduced the impact on profits. Third quarter sales grew 3.6 percent compared with 5.5 percent growth in the first half. Emap publishing and radio said it should meet full-year goals even though it expected no material change in trading conditions during its second half. They posted a nine percent rise in profit to 94 million pounds in the six months to end-September, on turnover up seven percent to 509 million pounds. International Power reported nine months earnings at the bottom of analysts' forecasts and warned that tough conditions in the U.S would send profits down further in 2004. Earnings per share for the nine months fell to 7.2 pence from 12.8 a year ago. Analysts had forecast 7.8 pence and the company said things were so bad in the U.S that it may have to mothball some capacity. BAA airports operator reported a four percent rise in October passenger traffic from a year ago, its strongest performance since the Iraq war this year. The lucrative north Atlantic sector recording its first monthly gain since February. Xansa computer services said it expected turnover to be down in the second half although in line with its expectations amid challenging market conditions. Northern Foods reported a 16 percent fall in half-year profits. After three profit warnings in the last two years the group said it aims to stabilise second-half profits at last year's level. The company, which makes own-label ready meals for Marks & Spencer reported 6 month profits of 32.5 million pounds at the top of analysts forecast range of 29.5-32.5 million pounds. Reckitt Benckiser report later

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Dicom Group (I), nCipher (I), Comino (I), EMAP (I) 92m Intechnology (I), International Power (I) Northern Foods (I), Oxford Instruments (I) VT Group (I), Galen Holdings (F), Reckitt Benckiser (Q2)Dicom Group (AGM), ICM Computer (AGM) Smiths Group (AGM), Kingfisher (Update) P&O Trading statementCBI regional trends survey	JC Penney Q3 12:45 BTM retail chain index	Bayer D Q3, Beiersdorf D Q3 Banca Intesa I Q3, Celesio D Q3 Mediaset I Q3, T-Online D Q3 Wedeco D Q3

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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Evening all,

Looking forward to the morning - it's tuesday so I'm at a prior engagement from the afternoon through until late...........

Hope to there for market open

LW

11/8: So far so good the count shown. Ideally this was another 1-2 of a larger 3rd wave down today, and we continue rapidly down from here to test 9200 and confirm the larger ending diagonal pattern.
Having said that, there is a clear 5 wave pattern down here, and a moderate rally back up above 9850 early tomorrow would not be unexpected as a wave 2 small degree rally is due at some point.
So, near term, rapid decline tomorrow says another 1-2 down of the larger 3 and we quickly test 9230.
A sloppy rally/sideways action up above 9800 from here tomorrow allows taking a decent short position with a stop at 9900 in anticipation of wave 3 down once the corrective action completes.
Near term confirmation of the pattern is a decline below the lower boundary, or 9650.



Updated 11/10 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/11
UP Above 9,800
DN Current Trend

Down Day
Dow pushes lower within wide range, breaks support.

From prior commentary, "...The index has now established a wide trading range from 9,770 to 9,900...A downside break at support at 9,770 will likely make for a much deeper retracement..."
The Dow opened the session weak this morning and began to sell off toward the lower boundary of the wide trading range that had formed from 9,770 to 9,900, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index eventually reached support at 9,770 where it held for a short period before finally resuming the move lower to the Close, losing 53 points for the day.

Today's downmove could lead to an even further decline toward the major lower trend line at about 9,650, seen in the Daily and Weekly Charts. The index has trended sharply higher above this key trend line since March and will likely continue to do so until this line is broken to the downside. However, we could see a test of the line in the near term at 9,650.

The fact that the Dow has broken support at 9,770 indicates further weakness for tomorrow's trading, especially if the index breaks and holds below 9,700. Otherwise, look for the index to form a range at the lows before direction is decided. An upside break back above 9,800 will indicate strength.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight range at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart from 9,735 to 9,785. Watch for a break from this range for direction tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short today at 9,770 and are still in the position. We will continue to hold stops at the entry for tomorrow's market and will look for Longs above 9,800, using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each trended lower toward clear support today, which we will watch closely for tomorrow's market. *

Summary

The Dow trended lower throughout the session today, selling off 53 points by the session close. Since the index has broken support at 9,770, look for continued weakness toward the major lower trend line in the near term.



TUE FTSE PP

R2 4391
R1 4366
PP 4342
S1 4328
S2 4314

Close was below Mon PP after gaining 2.7pts in the auction! Tue 2 day ftse chart seems to be looking to a brk up of the downtrend at 4360 and a brk down at 4340 with 4330 LT sup below!

Morning all

Morning all

Trying not to be tempted today..........

Morning all. Tempted with a small ETL long at 48.75 on the dip today. Prepared to add if it goes against me.

Running a short on KGF

Morning all,

Looks like S2 is holding.
Hoping for a little bounce back from here.
Don't always get what we want though.

Melnibone

Druid2 was going to take a look at ETL level 2 but it's still got "closed"! I'm sitting on a bit of cash and intend to add to it if I can as I don't think today is a good day to go long.

My small investment in AVZ from yesterday is at breakeven, and keeps trying but not succeeding to break it's current rise.....

My MKS are doing the same as your AVZ.

Been toying with the idea of taking a small profit and
buying back cheaper.

Trouble is, I did that last week with BT.A and looked what
happened there. :-(

Melnibone

Aren't BT.A results due?

BT interim results due out on thurs. I think there is a lot of speculation that they'll increase the div substantally (over 20%)

Yes, BT.A due thursday I believe.

MKS goes ex Divi (4.4p), tomorrow.

Melnibone

Our posts crossed. ;-)

Melnibone.

Just took my profit on MKS on that last bounce.

Now to see if I can get the position back cheaper.

Croc's chart is making me very cautious here.

Melnibone.

Couldn't access thread until now! AVZ broke - but has slipped back down to 2 points higher - I think it should bounce up again - but I may not be around to see it!

Sold DXNS yesterday for a nice profit. Current down over 6 since then, and I think it has a way to go. So tempted to go back in.......

Thanks little woman for your email, tried to reply but Moneyam or my computer playing up. Bit difficult for me to organise a South East group myself so will await a London Traders day

Paul

Finally got Level 2 ETL so decided to join you and pick up a small amount.

Paulismyname, its a shame you can't post a thread and see if theres anyone out there who would be prepared to do it........

Looks like I got my timing right on MKS.
Now have the option of buying back cheaper.

Too close to the US open to make a decision now.
Futures look weaker so will wait and see the US
market direction.

Melnibone

MKS chairman buys 13500 shares. I have bought & sold MKS a few times earlier in the year, but removed them off my list as I had so many on the list. Due for a reassessment of the lists, maybe I should take another look at MKS.

Just watched a slot on Bloomberg with a guy talking
about money supply in the US.

Apparently, this month, it turned down for the first
time since 1995.

Couldn't get a firm grip on how this was worked out
but the bottom line was that if this didn't turn up
again soon then it could prove negative for stocks.

Melnibone.

I see Jules99 is back. It's been a while since she's posted. Used to post on this thread quite bit a few months ago.

She's just started a thread on MKS (Surprised if there aren't others!). I must admit, increasingly I'm not bothering to read any of the new threads. I like a bit of history with them - more interesting to see how things change over a period of months rather than the last few days. (Also to see if they have managed to ramp the price up or not!)

Less than 20 threads posted on in the Traders room so far today - and in the Investors room near 50 thread! It's a pity the Investors room has to have quantity over quality!

Am I being too harsh!

Whoops, missed when DXNS turned! Now too expensive to go back in. Oh well the next time it hits 1.345!

Melnibone, I presume you expecting MKS to drop first thing in the morning after going ex div? What are the chances it'll buck the trend?

little woman,

There are probably far more investors than there are traders and those investors who just register but do not subscribe to am don't get access to the traders room. Maybe an explanation.

Yes I am expecting MKS to drop tomorrow.

Due no bonds trading today I would expect the US
stock volume to be down. This will lead to whippy
technical trading.
Nobody will want to be caught on the wrong side of any move.
I would therefore expect no direction to be given for the
FTSE to trade tomorrow by the US market.

Doesn't mean that I'm right, but you need to have an opinion
to formulate a view and enter or exit positions in accordance
with that view.
Otherwise you just end up watching stuff and doing nothing.

Melnibone

Actually, I would have said there are more traders posting and they post more often than investors.

The difference is that the traders post mostly on general threads. For example this thread on the traders room has between 250 and 400 post a day. This one has now getting about 30 posts, instead of the 5-10 it used to.

As I said, quality rather than quantity when it comes to threads in the Traders room. Also I suspect a reason why many traders never venture over to the investors room.

Nice to see the number of posts here increasing. Very interesting and varied posts. Keep it up everybody. We all have the same aim and that is to make money on the stockmarket.

druid-not posted you dow 10k guesstimate on the thread yet, 3 places left, oh go on:)

DXNS just lost its support and droping again. Supposed to be elsewhere but this time I may try and get some if I can work out were bottom is!

MKS is a bit of an oddball as far as the ftse goes.
As you can see above, the only times it's tracked it
during the last 5 years, is for about 10 months during
02/03.
It's now diverging again.
What attracted me this week is I expected the selling
pressure to come off as it approached ex-divi and was
down near support levels, this would
maybe lead to small bounces from any weakness.

If it drops again tomorrow, depending what the FTSE is doing,
I may buy again as selling pressure remains low towards the
register day for paying the dividends.

May not work, but you need a plan and a reason for opening
positions.

Melnibone

AVZ is finally getting interesting

There are some nice moves in AVZ if you can get the timing right.

What's keeping me away is that I think that the bounces are caused
by Bears taking profit, not by folk buying on weakness.

If it closes below 400p then the Bears will target a lower price
at which to take profits. If you are long and mistime it there
is a strong risk that you will either get locked in or stopped out
of a losing position.

Until this Spitzer thing gets cleared up there is negative sentiment
on the stock.
If Croc's prediction of a big drop comes true then AVZ will drop
more than the FTSE because it is a geared play on the market direction
because of the nature of its business.

Not trying to put you off, just airing my view. :-)

Melnibone

I must admit I was working on monday (yesterday morning) being the day it dropped as far it was going to in the short term. But having said that I can see the support & resistance levels on Level 2, which is what I'm using. I just hoped it would break 416 today so I could make a reasonable profit - which it doesn't look it's going to. Not to worry - still a profit is a profit.

A lot of trading going on at the moment. Even the S&P after the initial expected drop looks like it is above opening levels.

After spending the day down, will we close on a high for the day?

Added to my TGM holding. Climbing strongly again.

TGM, not come accross that one before, but for a low traded company the share price sure went up. Worth taking a more detailed look.

Probably end flat.

See my remarks earlier ref no bond trading, therefore
just technical daytrades due lighter volume and few
new positions being taken.

But what do I know.

Melnibone

Good job I never bought my MKS back for another afternoon
bounce. I'd be locked into them now with the stock opening
up ex-divi tomorrow.

That's me done for the day.

Melnibone

Me too

Off now......

Yipee!!!!!!
Just closed the second short at 9737 opened at 9757 =20pts at 25/pt = 500 smackeroons tax free -gordon brown put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Creamed the dow so far for 1100.

just watching now -greed factor to see what it rises to and then short some more.

Guys take the door off its hinges to let me out.

rgds
zarif

TP - Just saw your DOW Comp and unfortunately too latr to be in the 50 but for the record I will guess 9857.

If there is anyone on this thread interested or following Easyjet (EZJ) I would like to hear views. I have started to build a small LONG position (with stops) and hope to hold on until the 500p target price is reached.

Not sure how long you'll have to wait for 500p looking
at that chart. If you want an LTBH position then I think
that you are right to build into it.
I think you will get it cheaper.

I wouldn't touch an airline stock at the moment.
Terror alerts are again rearing their ugly head and
aircraft are being mentioned as specific threats.
Doesn't matter if it's cargo aircraft, it will knock
the travel industry.

Summer period is over, there's loads of competition,
and the old national encumbent airlines are getting
their costs and strategy in place to compete.

Not saying it won't go to 500p, eventually, but I suspect
that it will be later rather than sooner, and that the
financial geared plays on any upturn in the market will
react quicker and from a lower base if Croc's chart
has its dastardly way. :-)

Melnibone