Crocodile
- 11 Nov 2003 23:27
Premarket Futures |
FTSE +2 |
DAX +5 |
DOW +5 |
S&P +0.7 |
Nasdaq UNCH |
News: |
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With light volumes due to the Veterans Day holiday and lack
of economic news the U.S. markets drifted lower.
Closing numbers Nasdaq - 10.89, Dow Jones down 18.74 and S&P down 0.54.
Cable & Wireless reported an expected drop in first
half revenue and said it made progress in its U.S. exit, shaving 200 million
pounds off lease commitments. Second quarter revenue fell to 1.939 billion
pounds, in line with forecasts between 1.873 billion and 1.993 billion
pounds.
Business Post posted a 13 percent rise in first-half
profits and said trading since the end of the fiscal first half had been
encouraging and in line with its expectations. profit rose to 8.0 million
pounds from 7.1 million a year earlier. The firm raised its interim dividend
by 6.25 percent to 5.95 pence per share.
Luminar Britain's biggest nightclub operator posted a
20 percent fall in first-half profit and said it would hive off 63 clubs to
focus on stronger branded venues amid tough trading conditions. It made a
profit of 27 million pounds with analyst forecasts from 26.0-27.6 million
pounds.
Dairy Crest Group posted a 12 percent rise in
half-year profits on Wednesday and said it expected its performance for the
full year to show continuing good progress. Profits of 35.4 million pounds
with in line with analyst forecasts,
Corus announce a rights issue but not as bad as the
market feared.
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Calendar:
United Kingdom |
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United States
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Europe & World (GMT |
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Business
Post (I), Dairy Cr (I),
Luminar (I), Cable and Wireless (I) 85m
Wincanton Logistics (I),
The Medical House (F)Domic and General (AGM)BoE inflation report (10:30)
labour market report (09:30)
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Medtronic Q2, Applied Materials Q2
Federated Department Stores Q3
13:30 Jobless claims
13:30 Export prices ex. ag.
13:30 Import prices ex. oil
13:30 Trade gap -$40.5B
13:30 Energy Dept. oil stocks
21:30 Money supply (M2) |
Aareal Bank D Q3, Commerzbank D Q3
Elmos Semiconductor D Q3
Evotec D Q3
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen D Q2
Leoni D Q3. Deutsche Lufthansa D Q3
MAN D Q3, Mobilcom D Q3
Pernod-Ricard F H3
SGL Carbon D Q3, Wella D Q3 |
Ex Dividend:
BAA 6.6, BP 3.857, Carphone Warehouse Group 0.4, Cobham 8.36, Havelock Europa
0.7 29, Headway 1.605, HIT Entertainment 0.322
Interior Services Group 5, JJB Sports 3, John Menzies 5.5, Kesa Electricals 2.5,
Lambert Howarth Group 3.5, Man Group 11.4. Marks & Spencer Group 4.4
Mccarthy & Stone 9.8, Scottish Power 4.75,
Shiloh 1.5, Sondex 0.6, Synergy Healthcare 1.1, Waterman Group 3 10 |
ThePlayboy
- 12 Nov 2003 07:09
- 2 of 34
11/11: Looking like an ending diagonal 5th wave of the decline, and it's complete or nearly complete at this level.
A near term rally tomorrow would be conistent with a wave 2 rally, and that means the first target is right around 9800.
As before, a new high for the rally invalidates this count.
If we rally early and decline late, a sell is a breach of 9700.
Otherwise the form of any rally needs to be examined to see if it's corrective or impulsive here in the near term.
A big drop tomorrow right from the open means something more bearish (obviously) is going on and this count will need to be modified a bit...
WED FTSE
PP
R2 4369
R1 4357
PP 4335
S1 4323
S2 4302
Close was above Tue pp after loosing 1.2pts in the auction! Ftse brk to the upside at 4350 on the 2 day chart with 4330 support to the downside!
Updated 11/11 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/12
UP Above 9,790
DN Below 9,700
Down Day
Dow trades slowly lower - down 19 points.
From prior commentary, "...The fact that the Dow has broken support at 9,770 indicates further weakness for tomorrow's trading, especially if the index breaks and holds below 9,700..."
The Dow traded sideways-to-down throughout the session today, making a slow decline to the Close, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index continues to hold above the 9,700 level and lost just 19 points for the day.
Looking at the 15 Minute Chart shows that the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the lows of today's slow retreat. Typically, consolidations at lows imply further weakness. Therefore, we will watch 9,720 for a downside break to indicate a further decline. Such a move will likely push the index lower toward the major lower trend line at around the 9,650 level, as seen in the Daily Chart.
Look for further weakness to brew below the 9,800 level in the near term. An upside push through 9,800 will lead to strength.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a clear short term trend line across the highs of the current two-day downmove, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch for further weakness below this level tomorrow morning. An upside break through the line at 9,740 will likely make for an upside push at the Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still Short the Dow from 9,770 and will move stops down to 9,760 for tomorrow's market. We will stay Short below 9,700 and will look to enter Longs above 9,790, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each traded lower today, followed by the formation of tight ranges at the lows. Watch for breaks from the consolidations for direction tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow slowly sold off today, losing just 19 points by the session's Close. The index continues to make its way toward the major lower trend line from the Daily Chart. Watch for further weakness toward this target unless an upside break through 9,800 is seen.
Crocodile
- 12 Nov 2003 07:46
- 3 of 34
Morning ...
Druid2
- 12 Nov 2003 07:58
- 4 of 34
Morning everybody and thanks Croc & TP.
Melnibone
- 12 Nov 2003 09:05
- 6 of 34
Morning all,
FTSE at R1 and wondering whether to go for
Monday's high towards at R2.
Glad to see AVZ has had a bounce and given you options
again little woman.
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 12 Nov 2003 09:16
- 8 of 34
That was an odd rapid spike down just then.
This market is very nervous. I'm getting the impression
that people want to take profit and just need a catalyst
for an excuse.
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 12 Nov 2003 10:43
- 12 of 34
FTSE struggling to hold the PP.
Off to do some shopping, will wait for direction
from the US markets.
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 12 Nov 2003 14:57
- 20 of 34
Hi, only just managed to get back online.
Downloaded a Windows security update which froze
my laptop up on the reboot.
Ended up having to take the battery out to reset
everything.
Tried to sign in to CMC and it took 3 attempts
and a twenty minute wait.
Guess its not my day.:-(
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 12 Nov 2003 15:07
- 22 of 34
Tempted to cash in - mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Until you convert it to cash, a paper profit is a paper profit.
Hope that helps. ;-)
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 12 Nov 2003 15:24
- 24 of 34
A profit is a profit.
You'll only catch the bottom and the top if
you are lucky.
Be happy that you got the trend right and took
a chunk.
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 12 Nov 2003 15:54
- 25 of 34
Picked up some SHEL at the days low.
Well, at least I hope it's the low. ;-)
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 12 Nov 2003 16:10
- 26 of 34
Took profit on SHEL.
It was the low. ;-)
Nice little scalp to end the day.
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 12 Nov 2003 16:25
- 28 of 34
Good luck with your limits.
FTSE starting to get near possible shorting territory.
Tell you what, I'll try and organise a blow-off bounce
for your sells before I open my short. ;-)
Melnibone
Melnibone
- 12 Nov 2003 16:32
- 30 of 34
In case anyone hasn't noticed, VOD is at it's 129p
resistance level.
Unless it's going to do a breakout there's a danger that
it will lead the FTSE down.
Depends on what it reports.
I think that's next week, but not sure, haven't checked yet.
Melnibone
ajren
- 12 Nov 2003 18:51
- 32 of 34
Corus:
I bought at 8 p -----------------and made a good profit BUT they went up---
ajren
- 12 Nov 2003 19:30
- 33 of 34
I sold at 14 because a Standard and Poor report TERRIFIED me--They climbed to35