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U.S stocks broke a four-session losing streak following a strong report on the housing market, a bounce in the U.S. dollar and some upbeat corporate news. The Nasdaq rose 17.90, the Dow Jones up 66.30 and the S&P up 8.29  Nationwide sees 2004 UK house prices rising 9 pct SABMiller The world's second-biggest brewer reported a big 78 percent rise in half-year profits but said the earnings growth in the first-half, enhanced by currency movements, is not expected to be repeated in the second half of the year. Safeway said its interim profits had slipped to 173 million pounds for the six months against 187 million a year ago as it awaits an offer from rival William Morrison Supermarkets. People close to the company expect an offer before Christmas.Mothercare said like-for-like sales rose 4.6 percent in the five weeks to November 14, and it had maintained an improvement in margins. Results showed it made 13.4 million pounds profit in the 28 weeks against a 10.0 million pounds loss in the year ago period. SSL International the maker of Durex condoms said profit before tax fell to 9.5 million pounds in the six months including an exceptional charge of 12 million pounds. Lastminute.com reported its first annual profit of 200,000 pounds and said its managing director and co-founder Martha Lane Fox would stand down at the end of 2003. Royal & Sun Alliance Britain's second-largest general insurer reported underlying Q3 results consistent with the first half and said it was making good progress on restructuring its U.S. operations. It unveiled an operating loss of 212 million pounds in the nine months to September 30, but the figure included the reserve charge. Its combined ratio, a key gauge of non-life underwriting profitability that measures costs and claims against premiums, had improved to 96.2 percent from 104 percent in the same period last year, beating a consensus estimate of 99.3 percent.

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FKI (I), GUS (I), Tomkins (I) Great Portland Estates (I) National Grid Transco (I), Royal & Sun Alliance Insurance (I) SABMiller (I), Dimension Data Holdings Limited (F) Lastminute.com (F), Safeway (H1), Hilton group (I) Retail Sales Y/Y M/M for October PSNCR for October PS Net Borrowing for October

TGT retail, Walt Disney   1:30 Initial Claims 11/15 - 360K 15:00 Leading Indicators Oct - 0.2% 17:00 Philadelphia Fed Nov - 26.0

ABB Swiss engineer holds an extraordinary shareholder meeting on Thursday to approve a huge financing plan after the indebted firm nearly went bust last year. Swisscom (I) French-Belgian banking group Dexia (I)

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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11/19: Rally today makes this pattern count best as a 5 wave sequence complete at yesterday's low. Alternate count is this is a wave iv or larger B wave correction.
Expect another 50pt rally as the 50% retrace at 9755 is also the wave iv high by this count.
Once wave (ii) completes, expect another leg down, just larger.
So near term some more upside before this correction completes, a rapid decline from these levels would change the count, but not the expected target at 9230.
A conservative short position can be taken on a sloppy rally up to 9750 tomorrow with a stop at 9800-9900.
Most conservative is to wait for a breach of 9600 assuming we do rally to 9750.


THU FTSE PP

R2 4371
R1 4349
PP 4333
S1 4311
S2 4294

Close was below Wed s1 after loosing 4.1pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart again not so clear, more about sup/res, 4320 FIB with a brk to the upside at 4340!




Updated 11/19 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/20
UP Above 9,750
DN Below 9,600

Trading Range
Dow holds above 9,600, forms wide trading range at lows.

From prior commentary, "...The fact that the Dow has broken the major lower trend line, which has remained in tact for over eight months, implies weakness. A downside break through 9,600 could extend today's downmove..."
The Dow was able to hold above the critical 9,600 level today, which kept the index from a likely sharp decline. Instead, the index pushed slowly and steadily higher off the morning lows, ending up 66 points for the session.

The Dow has now formed a wide trading range at the lows of the recent downmove, from 9,615 to 9,750, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. We will likely see continued sideways movement within the range until a solid break of the boundaries occurs.

A downside break at 9,600 will spark a significant decline, while an upside break through 9,750 will make for another move higher within the wide, expanding triangle, also seen in the 60 Minute Chart.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight, downward-sloping consolidation at the highs of the 1 Minute Chart. Typically, this type of consolidation implies a breakout to the upside. Therefore, we will watch 9,705 up to indicate strength. A break below 9,680 will likely push the index lower.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry levels were triggered. We will continue to watch 9,750 up, and 9,600 down, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each trended slowly higher throughout the session, ending the day at their respective highs. Watch the forming ranges for breaks in the near term. *

Summary

The Dow trended slowly higher the entire session today, ending the within the boundaries of a tight consolidation at the highs. Look for the index to push higher toward the upper boundary of the wide trading, which we will watch for breaks tomorrow. Watch 9,750 up, and 9,600 down.

Morning all ..

Morning everyone. Thanks Croc & TP.

Morning all

The telecommunication companies do love children in need!

BT.A is still being hammered

CYH is finally heading northwards again!

Morning all,

My BT.a not looking too healthy today.
Not too fussed, single digit P/E and a divi circa 5% is OK.
This is still the big boy on the block.
Looks like I might indeed be finding out, first hand, when the ex-divi
date is. ;-)

LGEN looking better for me.

AVZ and LLOY trying to get above the 400p level again.

Seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the market.

Melnibone.

Not sure how these explosions are going to affect the markets.

Took profit on LGEN at 102.25.

Will hold BT.A and look to double position when it bottoms.

Melnibone

Al-Queda claims responsibility and threatens more attacks
against the US.

Markets still dropping and the US hasn't yet woken up.
This could turn ugly.

Melnibone

I would expect financial and travel stocks to take
the biggest hits.

Safe havens, bonds and defensive stocks, may rise.

Melnibone

Well it looks like we are following the US again!

It'll be interesting to see what the US does later.

I was intending to buy BT.A earlier, but realised it hadn't bottomed out. In fact it is looking worse now than this morning (and I'm not refering to the price, but the weighted sell orders against buy on L2.)

Hi little woman,

I am doing the same, waiting to see how the US reacts.

Watching LGEN and BT.A.

Bit risky to start bottom fishing yet I think.

Melnibone.

Hi Melnibone,

I'm now out for the rest of the day - so I shall not be doing anything!

A couple of months (?) ago, I read a comment made by a chartist reviewing BT.A when it was yo-yoing between 1.9/2.1 who said it was at a dangerous point, and although it could suddenly break upward, it was more likely to suddenly drop and not bottom out until it reached the 1.5 level.

Vodafone:-
Nov 19: Mr Hydon,director = 2,224,263 shares aj

BT group - Children in need.

Morning /afternoon all.
The market has been spooked by the blasts and results coming out today on YM.The sentiment can change and cause us damage. Also the Options expiring tomorrow i think -beware whipsaws etc.

Croc -what are your opinions for today on the YM. 9625 seems to be supported and brick wall at 9700 yesterday.Which direction are we moving any comments as you are not a crocodile but an ALLIGATOR in my books
rgds
zarif

Thanks for that little woman,
I'll keep my powder dry on BT.A.

I think 4280 on the FTSE and and 1038 on the S@P will act
as support/resistance levels today.

People will be shy of buying in this environement.
They won't want to get caught in any new longs unless
they are LTBH looking for a specific buy price.

I see further declines as Bulls bide their time while
Bears have to drive the price down looking for buyers.

Melnibone

BTA purchased 4,880,000 @ 173.28

Thanks for that ajren,

All information and views on stocks that we trade on this thread are welcome.

Keep it coming.

Melnibone.

Been out all day today and got back to find that my LMC short looking good. Have now reduced my stop from 325 to 257.75. Wish that EZJ & ETL longs would have gone my way - perhaps they will in the morning.

Hi Druid2,

Very pleased your LMC short has worked, well done.

Sorry your EZJ isn't going your way, but if you recall
terror attacks were my problem with airline stocks.
Look on the bright side, these are an LTBH buy so short-term
drops are not a problem to you, you may get the 250p support
top-up price that I mentioned.
If not, you are already in and you will be quids in anyway if
your 500p price target is met.

Melnibone.

I got my call very wrong for this afternoon's trading.

Please see my comments on the 'Dow Jones' thread
for my reasoning.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - tks - will keep my fingers crossed on ezj.