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Traders Thread - Wednesday 3rd December (GSK)
Crocodile - 02 Dec 2003 21:50
| Premarket Futures | FTSE -4 | DAX -12 | DOW -2 | S&P -0.5 | Nasdaq +1 |
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US Stocks suffered a mild round of profit taking today after hitting new 2003 highs the day before. United Utilities said profits grew 4.4 percent from a year ago, towards the top end of analysts expectations. Profit grew to 171 million pounds from 163.8 million a year ago. Serco Group said it continued to trade strongly and in line with market expectations. The company manages and operates call centres, speed cameras and prisons for government bodies, said in a statement: "In addition, there continues to be a good flow of new bids and opportunities for the Group, both in the UK and overseas and it expects to hear news, in the short term, on bids worth 7.5 billion poundsJarvis said it had won a contract worth 263 million pounds with Norfolk County Council, eastern England, to improve up to 39 Norfolk schools. Rank Group launched a 150 million pounds convertible bond issue on Wednesday to refinance existing debt maturing in 2008. The new issue would be convertible into about 42 million new Rank shares Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries Britain's biggest regional brewer reported a 1.2% dip in annual profits to 73.1 million pounds but said it had made a good start to its new financial year. Tesco said the interest rate rise by the Bank of England (BoE) last month had not yet had a big effect on consumers De Vere Group hotels posted a five percent rise in annual profit to 39.7 million pounds slightly above expectations and said recent booking trends were encouraging, though trading conditions remained volatile. |
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De Vere Group (F) PBT 38.7m exp. United Utilities (I) PBT 168m exp. Wolverhampton & Dudley (F) PBT 72.5m exp, Upholstery (F), Wagon (I) Expro International (I), Mentmore (I), Reliance Security (I), RPC Group (I), ScSGlaxSmithKline research and development day British Airways Nov Traffic Figures 08.30 Chancellor Brown Addresses European Finance Convention 09.30 Nov CIPS Services PMI 59.0 exp. 11.00 Nov CBI Distributive Trades 26.0 exp. |
Mandalay, QwCommunication (Q) 13.30 3rd Quarter Final Non-Farm Productivity 9.2% exp. 13.30 3rd Quarter Final Unit Labour Costs 5.6% exp. 15.00 Nov Non-Manufacturing ISM 64.0 exp. |
Europe: KLM (Traffic) 08.55 Nov German BME Services PMI 54.5 exp. 09.00 Nov BME Services PMI 56.5 exp. 11.00 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate q/q 0.4% exp. 11.00 Commission Publishes 4th & 1st Quarter GDP Forecast |
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Ex Dividend: 3i Group (5.1), Anglo Irish Bank (EUR 0.1393), Bank Of Ireland (EUR 0.148), Big Food Group (1.1), Body Shop International (1.9), Bodycote International (2.25), Caledonia Investments (8.4), Cranswick (4.4), Croda International (4.02), Daily Mail & General (6.85), Diploma (10), Greencore Group (EUR 0.0758), Helical Bar (6.6), Hill & Smith Holdings (2.15), Johnson Matthey (8.2), Land Securities Group (9.9), London Merchant Securities (2), London Stock Exchange (1.4), Majestic Wine (4.5), Merchant Retail Group (0.75), Pilkington (1.75), SABMiller (US$ 0.075), South Staffordshire (6.1), TBI (0.7), Tate & Lyle (5.6), Town Centre Securities (3.85), United Drug (EUR 0.0297) |
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little woman
- 03 Dec 2003 02:02
- 2 of 35
- I do like wednesdays - I think we should rename it ex divi day!
ThePlayboy
- 03 Dec 2003 07:12
- 3 of 35
12/2: No rally today is bearish near term, although there is no clear pattern to the decline at this degree of trend yet.
A possibility is that we are tracing out a triangle here, in which case we need another up/down and a sharp rally about the width of it to finish off the pattern.
A continued decline tomorrow that takes out 9800 says the (1)-(2) is playing out and confirmation that we are in wave (3) down comes with a move below 9650 from here.
It should be obvious because a 3rd wave decline will leave no doubt about it's direction.
So, with that in mind, a very good risk/reward short is available because the stop is very close by at 9903.
Successful speculation is all about taking small losses and reaping larger, but more infrequent gains. So, with a stop so close by and the potential decline of at least 1.6 x 300 or about 500pts, now is one of those opportune times.
A more conservative (longer term) approach is to wait for the technicals on the daily to confirm the wave pattern.
As before, any rally that takes out 9903 from here says something else is going on, and is (obviously) bullish at least for the near term..
Updated 12/2 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 12/3
UP Above 9,900
DN Below 9,830
Consolidating
Dow consolidates beneath resistance.
From prior commentary, "...The index is now right at key resistance at 9,900, which we will watch closely tomorrow...The index may consolidate at the highs before a move either way is seen, as this level is quite important..."
The Dow was not able to rise above the key 9,900 resistance level today, instead choosing to form a tight consolidation just beneath this key level, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.
The fact that the index has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the recent upmove is promising of an upside break through resistance in the near term. An upside break through the 9,900 will likely extend the current uptrend for the Dow.
However, consolidations are known to break either way, so we will watch both boundaries for a break. A downside break from the range at 9,830 will likely spark a downside reversal off resistance back toward prior support at 9,600. Moreover, a break of the 9,830 level will cause of break of the clear lower trend line, seen beneath the lows of the 15 Minute Chart, which further implies weakness.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow held beneath a clear short term resistance level at 9,865 for much of the afternoon, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Look for weakness beneath this level tomorrow morning unless an upside break occurs.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry triggers were hit. We will continue to watch 9,900 up, and 9,830 down, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each traded sideways throughout the session, forming clear consolidations at the highs. Watch the consolidation boundaries tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow continues to hold beneath the major 9,900 resistance level, which has given the index problems the past month of trading. The Dow will not be able to extend its uptrend unless this level is broken. Watch the consolidation for a break to determine direction tomorrow.
WED FTSE PP
R2 4442
R1 4410
PP 4385
S1 4354
S2 4328
Close was below Tue pp after gaining 4.6pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart targeting 4350 with a brk out of the downtrend at 85 to 4410!
zarif
- 03 Dec 2003 07:15
- 4 of 35
Crocodile - 03 Dec 2003 07:36 - 5 of 35
Douggie - 03 Dec 2003 08:00 - 6 of 35
Druid2
- 03 Dec 2003 08:07
- 7 of 35
Melnibone - 03 Dec 2003 08:56 - 8 of 35
I think it's possible that we may bounce around these
levels until we get the employment figures on Friday.
If the markets price in a good number before Friday, it
will have to be good to avoid another bout of profit
taking.
Melnibone
CAT - 03 Dec 2003 09:08 - 9 of 35
CAT - 03 Dec 2003 09:14 - 10 of 35
little woman
- 03 Dec 2003 09:42
- 11 of 35
Must try and stop these late nights!
Halifax says house prices up 14% year on year. That's what I like to hear!
Fundamentalist
- 03 Dec 2003 09:46
- 12 of 35
Melnibone - 03 Dec 2003 11:32 - 13 of 35
My FTSE 5 min chart looks like a flat line on a
heart rate monitor.
Is it still alive?
Off to get some stuff done.
See you all when the US opens.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 03 Dec 2003 11:44
- 14 of 35
One of my small high risk punts just produced some good News! http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200312031126428059S.html
little woman
- 03 Dec 2003 12:01
- 15 of 35
Fundamentalist
- 03 Dec 2003 12:20
- 16 of 35
little woman
- 03 Dec 2003 13:36
- 17 of 35
little woman
- 03 Dec 2003 14:23
- 18 of 35
ajren - 03 Dec 2003 14:38 - 19 of 35
This site is - in my opinion - the best on the board in regards to everyone
seems to be businesslike in a friendly way and nothing is Personalised rgds aj
stockbunny
- 03 Dec 2003 14:54
- 20 of 35
after yesterday's vulture-like performance! MLC climbing on
the back of De Vere's results (sorry guys don't know the epic for
that one!) LLOY can't quite make up its mind if its 'playing' today
or not - currently neutral at 00.00 and MKS looking healthier today.
If the dollar doesn't pull up on the Euro will it be tears be
the end of the week??? 10 to 1 we don't get another interest rate
rise announced tomorrow..
ajren - 03 Dec 2003 14:57 - 21 of 35
ajren - 03 Dec 2003 15:01 - 22 of 35
Melnibone - 03 Dec 2003 15:04 - 23 of 35
Markets are selling off a bit.
Bonds rising a bit.
Melnibone
Melnibone - 03 Dec 2003 15:31 - 24 of 35
around in a range until the employment numbers on Friday.
It looks like this may be happening.
Dow/S@P/FTSE have all tested resistance and failed to go through.
If the market can't make money one way it won't just sit there,
it will try it the other way.
Looks like Bears will make some short money by taking stuff away
from the highs.
Decided to back my view and sold my longs at FTSE 4400.
Expecting to buy them back cheaper.
It's working nicely on BT.A but LGEN is proving stubborn.
Any Bears out there fancy a short on LGEN, please feel free. ;-)
Melnibone.
zarif
- 03 Dec 2003 16:06
- 25 of 35
Have got another short open on the dow and will get the profits asap and be happy hopefully.
good luck today
zarif
little woman
- 03 Dec 2003 16:07
- 26 of 35
Melnibone - 03 Dec 2003 16:15 - 27 of 35
Looks like we both want the markets to retrace a little.
As long as we are enjoying ourselves and making more
than we lose, then that's what matters as far as trading
is concerned.
This is really just a big game, I have trouble taking it all
too seriously.
Melnibone
Melnibone - 03 Dec 2003 16:36 - 28 of 35
back at evens, but I haven't.
I don't like it when the FTSE closes in this situation.
The S@P/DOW are up near their highs and resistance at
1073/9920. There is a good chance of a pullback before
the close at 2100 hrs.(Assuming we don't get a breakout
that I miss) :-(
If this occurs, it will put pressure on the FTSE to gap
open lower tomorrow morning which would give cheaper
prices.
Guess I'll find out. :-)
Melnibone
zarif
- 03 Dec 2003 16:46
- 29 of 35
U r quite right about the 9920/9930 area.
The range on the Dow l see for today is 9830-9920, estimate for Wednesday 9870-9940
Thursday 9900-9970. Friday is the day when we should be falling back but the day will be led by unemployment figures in the US
Anyway these are solely my guesstimates and please DYOR & NAG.
lets see what it throws at us.Could be avolatile session hence give us some opps both ways.
rgds
zarif
Druid2
- 03 Dec 2003 18:30
- 30 of 35
Melnibone - 03 Dec 2003 20:34 - 31 of 35
If it keeps it up to the close I should get the lower
prices I'm looking for on the FTSE tomorrow morning.
After hours FTSE spread is already down to 4374/4378.
In addition to selling my longs I should have opened an
index short, but I don't like to go against a trend.
I prefer to buy on the pullbacks. If you get your timing
wrong but the trend holds it will always come back to you.
If you are counter trend and get your timing wrong it will
run away from you.
Now, fingers crossed for a weak last 30 mins.
Melnibone
Melnibone - 03 Dec 2003 21:09 - 32 of 35
Dow is roughly 40 points lower than it was when
the ftse closed.
S@P is roughly 9 points lower than it was when
the FTSE closed.
FTSE spread at 2100 is 4370/4374.
With a bit a luck we'll get a gap open lower.
Be able to pick some stocks from a sea of red
and take some scalps as it moves back up to try
and fill the gap.
Well, that's the plan. Funny how it never seems
to work out exactly, but at least there's a chance
with these conditions in place.
Fly in the ointment tomorrow could be a surprise BOE
rates decision and a weird and wonderful contrarian
market reaction.
That's what makes trading interesting, it's always
full of surprises.
Melnibone.
Douggie - 03 Dec 2003 21:17 - 33 of 35
Melnibone - 03 Dec 2003 21:24 - 34 of 35
views to make a market and who is to say that mine
is right?
We'll compromise. A lower open for me and a swift
reversal before the BOE decision for the both of us.
How does that sound?
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 03 Dec 2003 21:51 - 35 of 35
waffling again.
Last time, they threw a curved ball and the oil stocks
threw a wobbler.
They are a bit peeved with the non OPEC guys,(Russia et al),
pumping whatever they want and spoiling their party.
Chavez, in Venezuela, needs the Dollars.
Dollar is still depreciating, in case nobody has noticed.
They all seem to be exceeding quotas and playing 3 card
brag as it is, so there's no telling what this lot will
get up to.
Melnibone.
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