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News:	Sorry Your browser is not java capable
US Stocks hit a fresh 18-month high with the DOW ever closer to the key psychological level of 10,000, as blue-chip buying lifted the broader market ahead of the year's last Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting. Media companies say they expect global advertising spending to rise next year due to an improved economy and events such as the Olympics, but that Europe's growth will lag. Manchester United Irish racehorse magnates J.P McManus and John Magnier have raised their holding in to just over 24 percent from 23 percent previously, fuelling bid speculationFirst Choice Holidays beat forecasts with a 20 percent rise to 87.1 million pounds in annual profit on and was confident about this year, despite lagging sales for summer 2004 as customers continue to book holidays late. Greene King regional brewer and pubs group reported a 10 percent rise in its half-year profits and added that trading since the start of its second-half had been encouraging. They posted profits of 38.6 million pounds for the 24 weeks to October 19 compared with a consensus forecast of 38 million pounds. Standard Life mutual insurer reported a 22 percent fall in worldwide new business sales for 2003 on Tuesday but said it was optimistic after demand rose at the end of the year. New business sales fell to 1.42 billion pounds in the year to November 15, 2003 from 1.82 billion pounds the previous year.Severn Trent raised its first half dividend by 2.5 percent on Tuesday, signalling confidence in the upcoming regulatory review of its pricing structure as first half profits topped forecasts. Profit grew to 151.1 million pounds from 131.8 million pounds a year ago with analysts forecasts of 134.5 and 140 million pounds, It also raised its shareholder payout to 17.77 pence, at the top of expectations. PHS Group washroom services company reported a 21 percent rise in first-half to 20.8 million pounds but slightly below forecasts and said it expected more growth in the second half. Halma safety products firm said half-year pre-tax profits rose by 15 percent, to 24.4 million pounds above estimates, and said its outlook was in line with its expectations.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
First Choice Holidays (F) PBT 83.1m exp. Greene King (I) PBT 38m exp. Victrex (F) PHS Group (I) PBT 21.5m exp, Severn Trent (I), First Technology (I), Grainger Trust (F), Halma (I), ITE (F), Phytopharm (F), HSBC Trading Statement Denistron (DSN) Rights Issue Ex Date. Sub Price is 10p, Terms are 1 for 1 09.30 Oct World trade Balance -2.0bn exp	Alby (Q3), Analogic (Q3), CostCo (Q3) 15.00 Oct Wholesale Inventories 0.2% exp. 19.50 FOMC Rate Announcement	Lufthansa Traffic Figures 10.00 Dec German ZEW Economic Sentiment 70.7 exp.

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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12/8: Sloppy sideways pattern was indeed a correction, and looks like a triangle so far with a sharp rally about the width to finish it off.
Note that the 10K fib target is still close by, and we might test that level before this pattern is done.
A retrace of today's rally, and more importantly a decline below wave 4 (the low today) says the near term rally up from 9600 has completed, and a correction of that move up is underway.
Note that triangles always occur prior to the final move, and often times signal the end of the trend at the next larger degree as well.
Nothing to do but wait for a tradable pattern as the risk for whipsaw is very high right now.
Note the major intra-market divergence between the dow and the ndx right now, and the divergence with RSI and price that is still intact here on this chart.


Updated 12/8 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 12/9
UP Current Trend
DN Below 9,850

Rally
Dow rallies off lower boundary of range, passes upper boundary.

From prior commentary, "...Should the index hold above 9,840, we could see another push higher within the expanding range. An upside break through 9,880 will likely spark a push toward 9,950..."
The Dow was able to hold above the 9,840 support level today and pushed higher throughout the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index quickly broke through 9,880 and proceeded to rally to the 9,950 level by day's end, capping off a 103 point rally for the day.

Looking at the 60 Minute Chart shows that the Dow has now seen an upside break through the top of the large consolidation that had formed at the highs of the recent upmove. The break at 9,925 will likely lead to another push higher in the medium term, especially if the Dow can continue to hold above 9,900 in the next 2 sessions. Conversely, a break back below 9,900 will make for another move lower within the wide trading range.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the 1 Minute Chart from 9,955 to 9,970. An upside break is implied, but watch both boundaries for direction at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Long today at 9,897 and are still in the market. We will move stops up to 9,930, but will hold off on additional Longs at this time. We will look to enter Shorts below 9,850, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ lagged for much of the session, while the S&P followed the Dow's lead. Each index has now gotten key upside breaks of upper trend lines, which point to further strength tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow pushed solidly higher off the lower boundary of the wide trading range today, which forced an upside break from the consolidation, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. The upside break from the range implies continued strength in the medium term, but a pullback below 9,900 would indicate new weakness and potential "bull trap".

TUE FTSE PP

R2 4396
R1 4378
PP 4358
S1 4340
S2 4320

Ftse closed below Mon pp after gaining 3.2pts in the auction! DJ not giving away anything into our close! 2 day ftse chart rangebound, brk of 5 day downtrend through 4360 or continued weakness back to S1!

edit-gap up through downtrend this morn now pos to r2

21stcentury
Every tenet of contrary investing continues to point to a market badly in need of a correction in bullish sentiment. Yet it's not happening -- at least not yet. And it just hasn't been the best idea to short a market that keeps pushing up to make new highs, except if you're going for the intraday "scalp".

So while it's against my basic principals of contrary position trading to go long with sentiment at such bullish extremes, I also have little appetite to go short while the market stays above 1060. As I've written, the last stage of a bubble or mania -- and I certainly think this qualifies -- can often be the most dramatic in terms of price movement. There's still a decent shot that this market can soar up to the 50% retracement level of the bear market at SPX 1150, and you don't want to cling to bearish positions during such a blow-out.

But personally I'm content to watch this weird show from the sidelines for now, sort of like the "wise old men" did during that bubble blowing back at the tail end of 1999 and the first few months of 2000. And I know what you're thinking, but I just don't think it's possible for people to do what everybody fantasizes can be done; that is, ride up a bubble for all it's worth, and then deftly switch to the short side at precisely the right moment. That's pure fantasy. The human psyche doesn't allow those who buy into a bubble to make such an instantaneous shift. A bubble, by definition, inspires a feeling that it will go on forever, and that's precisely the feeling that's being inspired now.

Morning all

Good Morning all. Thanks Croc & TP. Leading shares up this morning but ETL showing a big fall.

mornin all

Morning all,

That post of the view from 21stCentury was good, TP.

Just about sums this situation up. I can relate to the
thoughts and emotions that it refers to.
I'm getting very wary of actually doing anything at the
moment.
Sometimes, the safest course of action is to do nothing.

Melnibone.

The best 2 comments the mullet has said all year imho:

Bias for today is bullish but after the announcements we could see some volatility. Lately, volatility has been very light and ranges continue to be very tight with the 10 day average range under 9 points. The lowest seen in over a decade.

Again, we are seeing these typical December/ Holiday period directional force conflicts and we can just do our best under the circumstances to try and squeeze some points out of this December trading month which is also very light on trading days.

Melnibone-preservation of capital, had i traded so far this morn i would be on a loss after comms, if you were,nt long last night its hard to chase!

Anyone know what's happening with SHEL and BP.

The oil price is near the top of OPEC's range.

They earn and report in Dollars and the Dollar is falling.
Yet the share prices keep rising.

What am I missing here?

Melnibone.

Morning all

Melbibone like a lot of UK companies that use a lot of dollars they should fix their dollar price and buy options from the banks to obtain all their dollars at that price for a least a year, so they aren't effected by the flucuations.

FTSE bounced of R2.

Looks like traders don't fancy a pre-emptive strike
at 4400 without following the DOW to 10,000.

Melnibone.

Ref SHEL and BP.

Bloomberg are reporting that the rise is due to the
first snow storms in the US which has caused a spike
higher in crude.

Seems a bit of a short term view to me, but what do
I know.

Melnibone.

Melnibone
I'm an novice at this compared to you but luckily I bought BP in this account at &4.05 I see its now breaking R2. Does that now signal theres more to come on the upside, or is it time to trade out?
Rgds
Optomistic

Hi optomistic,

It's very kind of you to attribute experience to me, but as I've
said before, I'm not a Guru. Your view is just as good as mine and
seeing as it's your money we're talking about I'd say that your view
is more important than mine.

The big picture of BP. doesn't look inspiring as you can see in
the above chart and the 60 Day MA looks like it's about to cross
down across the 200 Day MA.

It all depends if you think the current 8 month trend will continue
in BP. and the FTSE.

If it doesn't, BP. should find support around 400/405p so you'll
have plenty of time to get out with a profit..

If the trend continues then you are looking at 440p.

Depends on your own view and your own timescale.

Melnibone.

Thanks Melnibone
All info helps. I have just checked out the stock on MACD chart and it looks reasonably promising the MACD 12/26 breaking through its EMA(9) and nudging zero, will have to watch closely. What do you think about technical evaluation? I use it as fundamental info always seems to be available to others before it comes down to the outside world.

Optomistic

kept out of the market for the last week.first trade placed today.if done
order placed to sell dow if it hits 9995.

Your name may sound a bit offensive to some folks...each to their own I guess...

2 more directors fly from Mytravel

Hi optomistic,

With regard to technical indicators, I think that in the end
it always comes down to Trend Support and Resistance.

If you can find a technical indicator, like you seem to do
with the MACD, that will help you pre-empt a turn by being
able to interpret it's signals with a high success rate, then
that's all to the good.

You've achieved a good success with BP. with your buy price
at 405p. When the FTSE has basically gone sideways you have
already got around a 5% return.
That's pretty good in my book.

We all have our own methods and risk levels that suit ourselves.
There is no Holy Grail method that will always make a profit.
People trade the markets. People are fickle and can change
sentiment and views in an instant.

How can you train a non-sentient computer to predict the actions
of the sentient players with a 100% success rate?

Croc seems to do OK by having a system that monitors computer
driven trades but I think that even he will admit that it will
only give a higher number of winning positions as opposed to
losing positions, not a 100% success.

That's what it all comes down to. Find a method that makes you more
than you lose. We are all different in this respect.

(Melnibone jumps sheepishly down from soapbox.)

Melnibone.

well said Melnibone

Melnibone
Thanks for your frank and comprehensive reply, sorry about the delay in returning but it was something essential like having to go and buy food etc. Will keep watching your posts with interest, as I have for some while.

Rgds
Optomistic

0.5% inv up

I see AVZ is being caned with another 4% drop today
on a day that is positive for most stocks.

I know I keep mentioning this stock, but I get the
impression that there are a lot of medium/long term
investors on this thread that look for falling stocks
in the sometimes mistaken opinion that a cheap price
means a good buying opportunity in a sound stock.

I don't believe that this is a sound stock and have
just been trying to put some doubt in their minds.

Unlike the broker that recently caused it to bounce
back above 400p because they thought that the bad news
was already priced in.
They got that right didn't they. I wonder how much stock
they off-loaded after their announcement.

Melnibone.

Thanks initially to your comments then some research of my own i have successfully shorted AVZ, and I am certainly grateful that you keep mentioning it (anymore like it ????). Furthermore on AVZ, I have taken half profit but still see further falls with the current speculation surrounding the company imho.

been completely out away from the game today but see Severn Trent has
done the old income portfolio proud again - just love those utilities!

Fundamentalist: glad your trading is going well. Are u still on target for that seminar in cheadle on friday 12th dec. I am going so if u r there will meet.
rgds
zarif

Has the world gone to sleep or is my streaming not working, been looking at a non-moving screen now for a while....

melnibone
Well said :-)
D.
PS only 98% success ;-)

WED FTSE PP

R2 4430
R1 4405
PP 4382
S1 4357
S2 4335

Close was above Tue r1 but lost 3.2pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart tricky again, brk out of 4360 on Tue, uptrend off Mon low broken through 4385 on Tue so pos test of s1, positive FED comments will no doubt push ftse back up to the bottom of the TL at 4400!

Stockbunny, re : Prov. Fin. - seen today. if only!

Zarif,

Still hoping to go but work situ is a bit messy at the moment so may have to give it a miss. should know by thur am

Hi Fundamentalist,

Glad my posts on AVZ were of use to someone.
Ref the ongoing situation, I've just read an article
on how Europe is starting to wake up to the situation.

Here are some pertinant extracts.

Amvescap has seen its share price suffer after it was named in a series of reports on the ongoing investigation in the US. Now the Luxembourg regulator, the CSSF, has confirmed it is looking into possible market timing in funds registered in the Grand Duchy. Reports have named Amvescap as one focus of these enquiries

SEC Commissioner Harvey Goldschmid last week told a Washington conference on securities law the current market timing scandal represented 'a grievous betrayal of trust'.
'The investigations are ongoing, but at this point it is clear that venal self-interest has been widespread,' he said. 'Too often, fund officials - and other members of the financial community, including broker-dealers and bankers - have corruptly made themselves and their wealthy clients even richer at the expense of small fund shareholders.'
'Let me emphasize that I am not talking about a 'few rotten apples'. Much of the conduct has indeed been rotten, but we are now dealing with a significant number of senior fund employees and other members of the financial community. I expect the fund scandals to grow larger and more widespread as investigations continue,' he warned.

Anyone remember what happened to ADN because of the Split Trust debacle
and the exploits of Chris Fishwick, amongst others?
A salutary tale.
Melnibone.

Melnibone,

thanks for that, just more confirmation that I am holding part of the short open for a while longer - it appears where ever you turn, there is some more bad news about Amvescap to read.

Well done Testex!

STOCKCAHRTS
12/9: 10K target hit today, and as expected is providing resistance.
This pattern should finally have been completed at today's high, and the inability to hold 10K and the technical divergences support that conclusion so far.
We should test 9800 tomorrow if the trend has changed, and judging by the ndx's failure to rally today as well it is highly likely.
So, once again there is a decent aggressive short play with a stop at today's high. Conservative play is to wait for the form of this decline and fade a corrective rally if it looks impulsive.
Key level is the wave 4 low around 9850 as any decline that was part of a larger pattern down should easily breach that level.
Failure to do so is a warning that this 5th wave is extending higher, to be confirmed by new high for the move.
It is truly amazing how long this market has held up without correcting the 2600pt rally from 7400, and has definitely caused me and just about everyone else to call a top early and often.
Note that a 'normal' correction for this size of a pattern is 38% if it's a 4th wave, and that's nearly 1000pts.
By that measure a test of 9K is expected even if it is a new bull market if we've finally completed the rally.



Updated 12/9 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 12/10
UP Above 10,000
DN Below 9,840

Double-Top at 10,000
Dow hits 10,000, then reverses.

From prior commentary, "...The Dow pushed solidly higher off the lower boundary of the wide trading range today, which forced an upside break from the consolidation...The upside break from the range implies continued strength..."
The Dow opened the session higher this morning and made its way toward the 10,000 level. We hit 10,000 early in the session, but were not able to hold above the level. Instead, the Dow set up what would later become a double-top reversal to the downside, seen in the 15 Minute Chart, which led to a 42 point loss for the session.

The fact that the Dow was not able to break through the 10,000 level hints at the likelihood of the index staging another move lower within the longer term uptrend, seen in the Daily Chart. The index may push lower within the trend and test the lower trend line at about 9,750. A downside break through 9,850 will increase the odds of such a move.

Otherwise the index will likely continue to trade between the levels of 9,850 and 10,000 until a break from this range occurs. We realize this is a wide range to watch, but we could experience whipsaw activity if action is taken within the range, which is why we want to wait for a break of either boundary.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart from 9,917 to 9,935. An downside break is implied, but watch both boundaries for direction at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we closed Longs today at 9,830, giving us a 33 point gain for the prior trade. We are now out of the market and will watch 9,840 down, and 10,000 up, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ experienced a "Pop and Drop" today, while the S&P basically did likewise. Each index ended the day near session lows and will likely continue trending lower within their respective ranges. *

Summary

The Dow saw a double-top at 10,000 today, sparking a decline late in the session. The index is likely to continue trending lower toward the major lower trend line from the Daily Chart. A break at 9,850 will indicate continued weakness, while an upside break through 10,000 will spark another move higher.


WED FTSE PP

R2 4430
R1 4405
PP 4382
S1 4357
S2 4335

Close was above Tue r1 but lost 3.2pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart tricky again, brk out of 4360 on Tue, uptrend off Mon low broken through 4385 on Tue so pos test of s1, positive FED comments will no doubt push ftse back up to the bottom of the TL at 4400!

Testex-Dow is ED Downs i,m afraid but glad I could help! My own pp,s and analysis ftse though, well done! From many a chat on the Traders room Gurus are a no no, but Ed downs provides levels and likely scenarios, he does not pretend to have the Holy Grail, I cannot remember the last time his level brks were wrong, stick with him and avoid the NOISE!