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Traders Thread - Thursday 11th December (MT.)
Crocodile - 10 Dec 2003 22:01
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U.S. stocks closed little changed Wednesday, recovering by the end of a choppy session in which investors continued to take profits. The Dow Jones closed down 1.56 at 9921.86, S&P down 1.13 and the Nasdaq down 3.67 all three had been much lower in the last hour of trading. Water Utilities could rise after being permission to raise prices (United Utilities). Standard Chartered report at 8am. European car sales fall 1.5% FTSE 100 reorganisation: IN British Airways & Hayes / Provident & Mitchells & Butler OUTMatalan <PROFIT WARNING> warned that its profit for the year to end February would fall well short of expectations after a slump in sales. The firm said its like-for-like sales tumbled seven percent in the 14 weeks to December 6. It said results for the year would depend on the critical Christmas trading period. "At this stage however, the board considers it unlikely that the shortfall in sales to date will be recovered in the remainder of the financial year. The board now expects that pre-tax profit for the year to 28th February 2004 will fall materially short of market expectations," MyTravel reported a pre-tax loss on ordinary activities for the year ended September 30 of 910.9 million pounds, from a 72.8 million pound loss the previous year. Analysts had been expecting a loss of about 600 million pounds. Provident Financial which lends to people with poor credit history or low incomes, said it performed well and in line with its own expectations in the first 11 months of this year. United Utilities Trinity Mirror publisher of the Daily Mirror said trading was in line with its expectations for the year, with weakness in advertising at its national newspapers offset by strength in regional titles. At its national titles, advertising revenues fell 5.7 percent in the period. Regional ad revenue climbed 3.9 percent. Laird Group electronics said it expected its 2003 results before exceptional items and goodwill amortisation to be at the top end of market expectations. Yule Catto & Co speciality chemicals company said its second-half results should meet forecasts. McAlpine said it had added 150 million pounds to its order book through contract wins. Logica said trading in the second half of 2003 was in line with its expectations amid increasing confidence that key markets were stabilising. It expects IT services revenues in the second half to be similar to the first-half and anticipated margin in the business to improve to over eight percent from 6.5 percent in the first half. Pearson publishing group said it had been chosen as the prime contractor for a seven-year, $200 million deal to develop and administer a students' exam programme. |
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Daejan Holdings (I), MyTravel Group (F), NHP (F) Alliance Unichem Trading Statement Standard Chartered Trading Statement LogicaCMG Trading Statement 09.30 Oct New Construction Orders 11.00 Nov CBI Industrial Trends |
Amrep Corp (Q3), Datatec Systems (Q3) 13.30 Nov Import Price Index m/m 0.2% exp. 13.30 Nov Advanced Retail Sales 0.6% exp. 13.30 Oct Business Inventories 0.2% exp. 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 6/12) 355k exp. 19.00 Minutes of Oct 28th FOMC Meeting |
Mittel SpA (F), Fox Kids Europe (F) 07.00 Nov Final German CPI m/m 09.00 ECB Monthly Report |
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Druid2
- 11 Dec 2003 07:46
- 2 of 31
ThePlayboy
- 11 Dec 2003 07:46
- 3 of 31
Key DOW Levels for 12/11
UP Above 9,940
DN Below 9,880
Sideways Day
Dow trades quietly sideways, ends day at breakeven.
From prior commentary, "...the index will likely continue to trade between the levels of 9,850 and 10,000 until a break from this range occurs. We realize this is a wide range to watch, but we could experience whipsaw activity if action is taken within the range..."
The Dow traded sideways-to-down throughout the session today, but eventually ended the day with less than a 2 point loss, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index looks to have formed a wide, upward-sloping trading range at the highs fo the 60 Minute Chart, which we will watch closely tomorrow.
The Dow experienced a sharp reversal off the lower boundary of the range at 9,880. The lower boundary of the range will be key to tomorrow's market, as a break or continued bounce of the level could make for a solid move.
If the index can continue to hold above 9,880, look for the Dow to make another push toward 10,000. An upside break through 9,940 will spark such a move. Otherwise, a downside break at 9,880 will signal weakness and fuel another decline.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line across the highs of the 5 Minute Chart. An upside break of the line at 9,925 will spark a short term push higher. Otherwise, look for further weakness below the line.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry levels were triggered. We have tightened up our entry because of the operative patterns in the index, and expect a trade to be triggered tomorrow, at 9,880 down or 9,940 up, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ trended slowly lower throughout the session, as the S&P did likewise. Each index is at or near the lower boundary of their respective ranges, which we will watch closely tomorrow. *
Summary
The Dow trended quietly lower for much of the session today and has now formed a wide, sloping trading range, seen in the 60 Minute Chart. Look for another push higher within the range tomorrow, unless 9,880 is broken to the downside.
THU FTSE PP
R2 4409
R1 4372
PP 4342
S1 4305
S2 4275
Wed close was on s2 after gaining 1.4pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart needs a brk out above 40 (pp) to head towards 4360! Continued weakness back to Wed low and the 4280/300 LT sup.
ThePlayboy
- 11 Dec 2003 07:47
- 4 of 31
Crocodile - 11 Dec 2003 07:54 - 5 of 31
Crocodile - 11 Dec 2003 07:57 - 6 of 31
Druid2
- 11 Dec 2003 08:06
- 7 of 31
Edit later = EZJ & ETL struggling atm.
Douggie - 11 Dec 2003 08:27 - 8 of 31
Melnibone - 11 Dec 2003 08:56 - 9 of 31
I think that MKS was unfairly hit by Matalan news.
They are both retailers but the business models are
different.
Took a punt on MKS at 271p. I like the way it held the
March lows whilst the Bears did their worst. There's not
many Bulls with profits to take at these levels so I
think that any further weakness will be Bear selling
that will need to be covered at some point.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 11 Dec 2003 09:24 - 10 of 31
towards the bottom of the uptrend channel.
About another 5 to 6p to go and then I'll have to
try and judge market sentiment and make a decision
on whether to go with the bounce off the bottom
trendline or not.
Any other views welcome by the way, if anyone thinks
I'm missing something then shout up. These are only
views that we post here, not cast iron predictions.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 11 Dec 2003 09:26
- 11 of 31
The only shares I seem to be be doing well with are the ones I don't mention. (Mainly because I buy & then sell them on limit orders - always get far better prices than I ask, and I often don't even know they have happened!)
Melnibone - 11 Dec 2003 10:25 - 12 of 31
Will buy again if it drops back to 270p.
SBRY still coming down, still monitoring.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 11 Dec 2003 10:30 - 13 of 31
Off to watch Tom Hougaard on the TA spot on Bloomberg
in 2 minutes and then start plastering my porch
ceiling.
See you all when the US opens.
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 11 Dec 2003 10:44
- 14 of 31
Tradman - 11 Dec 2003 10:50 - 15 of 31
Any thoughts appreciated.
bishopjeremy
- 11 Dec 2003 10:51
- 16 of 31
ThePlayboy
- 11 Dec 2003 10:56
- 17 of 31
Hats off did call 10k when we were low 9k,s I think or even lower!
little woman
- 11 Dec 2003 12:40
- 18 of 31
Mole - 11 Dec 2003 12:46 - 19 of 31
little woman
- 11 Dec 2003 13:03
- 20 of 31
Mole - 11 Dec 2003 13:11 - 21 of 31
M.
stockbunny
- 11 Dec 2003 13:13
- 22 of 31
My Travel pantomine this morning same as MKS (no I am not amused at
the fall yesterday/today!) has suffered from the matalan one.
Little Woman - you must stick your head round the door in the tea-rooms
some time I'm getting out numbered in there (lol)
Tradman - 11 Dec 2003 13:59 - 23 of 31
stockbunny
- 11 Dec 2003 14:10
- 24 of 31
I did the same a month or so ago - put a limit and sold out
once it was reached it (231p on the last up-run) although the
price rose again afterwards so didn't time it exactly right.
it's not a stable sector so hard to predict..
Good Luck!!
Melnibone - 11 Dec 2003 14:40 - 25 of 31
Don't seem to have missed much, did the FTSE actually move in
the last 4 hours or has it been comatose.
Can't understand why it's down with everything else looking
good.
Perhaps it will bounce this afternoon and stop out some Bears.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 11 Dec 2003 14:50
- 26 of 31
Melnibone - 11 Dec 2003 14:54 - 27 of 31
and drag the S@P/FTSE along for the ride.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 11 Dec 2003 15:29
- 28 of 31
little woman
- 11 Dec 2003 15:53
- 29 of 31
Melnibone - 11 Dec 2003 16:10 - 30 of 31
With a bit of luck the US will drop back after
the FTSE close.
If the Asian markets follow it with a drop tonight
we may finally get the FTSE down to the bottom of
the trend channel tomorrow morning.
Anyway, nice profitable day and my porch ceiling
is ready for painting to boot! So no point in spoiling
it with a duff trade now.
Will just watch and work out tomorrow's plan of attack.
Melnibone.
Druid2
- 11 Dec 2003 19:29
- 31 of 31
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