SEE LATEST CHOICE IN LATEST POST

There are existing threads specific to betting short or long on indices.
On this one I plan to stick to individual UK stocks, and will post other examples of favourite fallers.
My downbets are sometimes just an hour or so, sometimes days, weeks, months. So bear in mind(!) that some of the charts shown may become irrelevant within days.
I mainly use IG Index, but also Spreadex

SEE LATEST CHOICE IN LATEST POST

BAD TO WORSE AT WH SMITH
(edited away at later date)

WH Smith warns of risk to dividend
(edited away at later date)

TOP JOBS TO GO IN WH SMITH CRISIS
(edited away at later date)

Hi Juzzle - read this thread with great interest as I've just placed my first spread bet - short of cash flow so altho it's not ideal to spread bet on a stock going UP, I thought it was better than not being involved in the rise at all so after a RHPS tip that I looked at, have bet on SKS (Shanks) going up.
Would be very interested in reading your contributions on this thread! and intend to look at WH Smiths
Regards
Anna

WOOF!



Tipped in the press after results but what do they know?



Where's the eps growth going to come from now?



Trading statement tomorrow.

Thanks Anna,Hilary. Got back late - will look at tomorrow. Capture of Saddam has lifted Asian markets 2% overnight already, and 1% elsewhere, so a lot of people with shorts and who are using automated stoplosses are going to find themselves stopped out. And others will be closing downbets in panic first thing. So even stocks that are destined to fall further may show an upkick on Monday when those 'buys' kick in. Tuesday is an expiry day for quarterly bets - when stocks that have been moving consistently one way may reverse as positions close. So the two days together may cause some confusing patterns. Followed by a few stocks going XD on Wednesday. An interesting start to the week!

Went short SMIN earlier this week (not just because Robbie Burns did!). Closed the PIN downbet when founders sold the company to a bigger US player (Russell). Falling price had already turned a little ahead of announcement.

Closed SMIN downbet (overnight chart said bottom, and bottom it did)

Sunday papers were full of news that Tesco, having trounced its supermarket rivals in terms of market share, was launching an attack on Boots. Sharply undercutting Boots prices on a range of popular products.

Boots had already been on my watchlist for shorting if it got anywhere near 720p. I assumed the price would open lower this morning, before I could go short on the damaging effect of this new price war. Fortunately the opening dip was briefly reversed by a spike the other way (as so often happens before 8:30am) taking it back up to 7, and I was able to get onboard after all. Not sure how much mileage there is in this. The company is due to issue a trading statement on Friday I think.

deleted later

Tribal had itself a little bounce - enough for me to trim my stake and stay watchful just in case it's for real. PDP doesn't seem to have learnt how to bounce, yet.

Forgot about this thread. Lately I am mostly shorting Alba (ABA):

And ALEA:

and now, I am mostly shorting

Colliers (COL)
O-Twelve Estates (OTE)
Silverjet (SIL)
Eco Animal Health (EAH)
Motivcom (MCM)


All spreadbettable at IG Index

But that was then. This week I am mainly shorting LSL Property Services (LSL) which is already down heavily but is surely destined to go lower still. Its fortunes are heavily dependent on house sales.

LSL still bouncing around that 100 mark. Still expecting more downside. Meanwhile I have increased my downbet on Equest Balkan (EBP) which continues on its downward flightpath

deleted later

(HMV)

Will HMV be rescued by some predator? If so its share price might jump skywards of course. But if no such fairy godmother emerges before the Xmas trading figures are published, a further dive is probably likelier.

(example edited away later)

I cannot understand why OCDO is so high.....946 million plus.... based on a delivery service and a fleet of trucks...crazy valuation.....in that case...how do you value the John Lewis partnership ?....into tens of billions ?......

You got me RF, TSCO,SBRY,MKS have been like war zones all week and getting wellied, tis the silly season to be sure!

Hirco's agm was one of the scheduled items today. Turned out to include a stinker of a statement. Difficult to believe the price won't plunge a lot further yet. I remain short.

agm statement

--

~~

Yesterday's statement about CPP Group (CPP) being dumped by Barclaycard, included this - which suggests we can perhaps expect a profits warning when Results are published on March 2nd:

"...The FSA investigation into certain issues surrounding the sale of the Group's Card Protection and Identity Protection products in the UK, and the suspension of Identity Protection sales in the Group's UK voice channels, both of which were announced in March 2011, are continuing to have a material impact on the Group's ability to sell its full range of products in the UK. The duration and outcome of the FSA investigation continues to be uncertain..."

(The share price crashed 50% last March when the investigation began. The uncertainty, and risk of a very big fine, must surely have cost millions in lost business this year?)

What an awful chart.

Looks even worse after today :-O

I've been out all day and left a downbet in place. Got back home to find the 105p level it paused at gave way.

Essar (ESSR) share price fell 70% during 2011, and is already down by half that in less than two months this year. Debts of £4.6bn(!).

I trade it from time to time. Usually a nice tight bid/offer spread.

CPP suspension lifted this morning.


Results, not unexpectedly, include a profits warning and indications of ongoing inability to determine full impact of the FSA ruling already made and additional rulings which may yet follow:



"...Going forward, the Group's UK business will undergo a period of significant adjustment as a result of the impact of the FSA investigation. Lower retail new assistance income in 2011 will lead to a significant reduction in profitable renewal revenue in 2012. There may be some adverse impact on renewal rates from changes to the renewals process for Card Protection and Identity Protection in the UK. The planned closure of the call to confirm channel in the UK will adversely impact new assistance income and revenue and profit growth in 2012 and beyond, unless replaced by revenue from alternative channels..."

"......A provision of GBP14.8 million has been made in the 2011 results for the various initiatives agreed with the FSA, however there remain risks associated with the level of redress to be paid. Furthermore, it currently remains unclear what steps the FSA may wish to take, if any, and against whom in relation to UK sales of the CPP's Card Protection and Identity Protection products that are not within the scope of the Group's Past Business Review, or in respect of any similar products available to the market from other providers. There can be no guarantee that the FSA will not seek to take action on a wider industry basis. Until such time as the FSA makes a determination on these issues, and the repercussions are understood for the industry as a whole, the Group is unable to assess the potential impact on its Business Partners, or the Group's relationship with them, including any financial consequences..... "



"...It currently remains unclear what steps the FSA may wish to take, if any, and against whom in relation to UK sales of CPP's Card Protection and Identity Protection products that are not within the scope of the Group's Past Business Review, or in respect of any similar products available to the market from other providers. There can be no guarantee that the FSA will not seek to take action on a wider industry basis.

The agreement with the FSA does not mark the end of the FSA investigation which is continuing....."

juzzle - hope you were already short of CPP per your flag in mid feb .... if so, you must be feeling very cheery indeed

Yes thanks ;o)

will you continue to run it? ...... looks to be rather illiquid, so any squeeze could be quite painful

Not for the moment. I banked a substantial four-figure gain and don't want to push my luck by being greedy for more. I do think its prospects over the coming year or so are bad, so I certainly wouldn't be a buyer into any recovery.

Well done MT!

Further to posts 26 and 30, CPP Group (CPP) have this morning issued another profit warning:


"...We anticipate that trading will continue to be difficult in the UK which will undergo a period of significant adjustment as a result of the impact of the FSA investigation, and we continue to work to address, where possible, the concerns of Business Partners during this period of uncertainty. Renewal rates are expected to be adversely impacted by changes to renewal packs and publicity surrounding the Group. The call-to-confirm channel has now been closed in the UK and as a result there are currently no sales of Card Protection or Identity Protection in the UK through CPP channels. These factors combined will, as previously announced, adversely impact revenue and profit growth in 2012 and beyond until replaced by revenue from alternative channels..."

Face book is looking more and more like a good short

If you watched the programe the other night on Facebook it was interesting ,their valuation looks crazy ,it will be the founders and people in at the beginning who make the killing , DotCom bubble springs to mind.

A long time since I visited this thread!

My current downbets include:

DX Group (DX.)
ChinaTek (CTEK)
Saga (SAGA)

Juzzle this is a good thread ,i wish others would post here ,GF where are you it's a shorting thread !..

bit late but
QPP
ASC
Dow

Increased my downbet on Applied Graphene materials (AGM). I am a fan of graphene - and this company may well end up as one of the winners in this new field. But lots of companies all over the world are scrambling to grab a piece of the action, and I don't think we will know until next year if AGM has a profitable part to play.

NOTE: IG Index don't accept downbets online on this stock (they might by phone), but Spreadex do.

I'd forgotten about this thread Juzzle - does this mean that you are expecting a general sell off?

minute volumes

skinny -- I too had forgotten this thread!

I do most of my trading in the cooler darker days of the year, Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb, when I can justify being indoors instead of outdoors. So am currently revving up my market involvement, which includes upbets and downbets. I don't have a specific view of whether markets as a whole are heading up or down - but some of my downbets have been moving more briskly this past week or so.

I hope your glass fills quickly! :-)

Juzzle your down the road from me, ever had any socials down there, the nearest one to me is Freds Pie & Pint in Brum.

cynic (post 44) - during AGM's sharp decline over the past couple of months, the daily volume has averaged around 8000 (some days less than 1000, only 4 days higher than 20,000), so 15,000 in the first 2.5hrs today is pretty big volume for this stock.

Stan - I occasionally get together around a pub table with 2 or 3 other local investors or traders. Nothing bigger than that. I grew up in Bham and know it well, but left there 45 years ago.

which is exactly why part of my argument against trying to trade them
btw, easily done through CFDs at IG

Yes Juzzle we do the same in Brum, seems to be little interest in just about anything in Shropshire sadly though.

There seems no end to Ferrexpo's woes at present..

AO World (AO.). Climbing from its October low, the share price yesterday closed at 285p. That's the levelit floated at in February. I think it might drop back and have opened a downbet. If it closes at 285p again within days, and then closes below 279p, I might view thatb as a double-top and increase my downbet. If instead it pulls clear above 285p (and especially if it tests 285p as a floor) my bet will get closed in phases.

I still have downbets on Premier Foods (PFD), Saga (SAGA) and Igas (IGAS)

Parkmead Group (PMG). This is one where Spreadex offer better terms than IG. It's a tricky stock to short - it can jump up 30p at times.

QPP must also surely be for the knacker's yard though the main "fun" has now gone

Might bounce back if the account's are seen to be kosher

ps Will bounce back

very hard to believe that they really are, no matter how hard the management tries to spin the findings

Downbets on Parkmead (PMG) and Igas (IGAS) continuing nicely.

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Opened a tentative downbet on AA. Also increased my downbet on CARD.

One for the candlechart specialists. Ibex Global (IBEX) has not produced one positive candle since mid-December 2013. Downbets are taken online at Spreadex or by phone at IG.

I have been short of it in the past, but after closing my position last August, I forgot about it till this week.

They operate call centres in various parts of the world but are a tiny player in this field (market cap around £40m now having halved in 12 months)

Chart fell heavily in March and October (HY and FY Results).

APR Energy (APR) develops and operates a fleet of readymade containerised electricity generation plants that can be quickly shipped to wherever needed. Their share price has been falling since October 2013 - down more than 80% so far.

IBEX (post 63) falling again - down 6.3% already this morning.

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APR still sliding. Lost half its value in the last 11 weeks. Down a whopping 85% from Oct 2013 peak.

It would need to grow sevenfold to get back to its highs.
The ongoing suspension of its operations in Libya (biggest contract by far) is reportedly costing it an estimated $17m per month in lost revenue.

(chart in Post 64)

Good luck to all who are buying in on the basis of APR's asset value and in anticipation of a sharp bounce on any good news from Libya. Libyan government ratification of APR's contract extension could prompt a very sudden spike upwards in its share price.

But latest news on the overall situation in Libya remains grim and understandably affects the share price of all listed companies operating there, deterring many investors:

New York Times latest from Libya

In the event that the Libyan situation is not resolved in APR's favour, there must be doubts about how the company would ship its generators elsewhere - with so much disruption of ports and airports - and the risk of equipment being seized by fighters. About a fifth of APR's fleet is in Libya. The country is desparately short of electricity, and APR's equipment is something that various factions might relish control of.

So, APR has conceded defeat and thrown in the towel on its biggest contract. It now has the problem of getting its equipment out of war torn Libya without any faction seizing it.

wow .... if you were short there, then very well done indeed

for myself, have just opened a small short on QPP at 107.25 as the news of the potential sale of one the assets wasn't quite accurate

Yep, was short APR ;o)

What's your view on Afren ? upside more then downside now

your choice, but i think this is now dead in the water as far as PIs are concerned

No one seems to know its value , except those who have looked at the books even that depends who want's to take it on

FXPO could pretty much collapse to nothing from here. Iron ore plunged again overnight down 4% to near 6 year low.

Operating in Ukraine as well.........

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I have renewed my downbet on APR Energy (APR). The share price has tried repeatedly to break upwards through the £4 level, but appears to have given up and looks like falling away. By rights it ought to crash heavily sometime, going by the string of bad news announcements and director resignations over the past year.

putting the 25, 50 and 200 dma lines is also a good indicator, and looks like a good call

black = 200
red = 25
green = 50



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i trust you have no objection if i post this "next door" where there are at least a few sensible threads

Manuel,

You won't be able to understand them, if you do!

piss off crumbly one :-))