Closed the last thread as it was getting top heavy and cluttered. Brought out the new thread showing carry over of stocks held from year 2003 and ones I will following this year with interest.

Please remember I am by norm a long term value investor ( and invest in tranches ) but now and again may pick some trading stocks which need to be purchased on the same day I invest in them, or the opportunity to profit may be lost. Notice will be given.

Always please DYOR and remember you are always responsible for your buying and selling timing, and actions. I do own other stocks but I have not covered them on this board and therefore dont feel its right to list them here unless I do a reco on them.

Heres the list.

Telecolm Plus Results recently were excelent and the company is just growing and growing. Next target FTSE 250.

Bema Gold A little gem of a gold miner and has surged on the back of the increasing POG, should be a very long term banker.

Caldwell Investments Nothing Spectacular here but still up on buy price. If its good enough for Jim Slater and Evil Knievil, its good enough for me.

African Eagle A play on the ever increasing POG, but this time an explorer, and hopefully good news out very soon.

Just Car Clinics A long term hold that has fought back in the market just recently. Trading was a tad dissapointing late summer, but there are whispers about everything is back on track.

Bioprogress Hoping this one is going to be a long term Bio hold and has some big names like Mike Walters tipping it. A new contract win is imminent.

Zoo Digital Another long term hold which is likely to make its maiden profit in the very near future. I see this as a take out or take over candidate based on its, DVD Extra Technology.

Healthcare Enterprise Group A small company with a big future. As acquires a couple of very well know companys in the Health Care Business and has some very big backers.

Datacash One of the World Leaders in its software security field for online payment processing, also now branching out into other areas of security for credit cards and store cards.

Pipex Communications Fantastic and proven management team have acquired the bit parts to put together a Telecolms network of the highest order. Another long term hold.

I D Data A play on the new security chip credit cards and store cards. Awaiting big orders from Banks from all over the Globe.

NEW BUYS

T T Electronics A recovery play on the world car manufacturing and mobile phone industries.

Armour Group, a company that again is in the in car entertainment market and sells all the leads and plugs that are needed for the electronics to work. Also has an in house, audio electronics division.

Service Powerthe recognised market leader in artificial intelligence based field service scheduling applications.

Patient Line Market-leading pioneer of bedside communication and entertainment services within the NHS healthcare sector. Offer a comprehensive solution partnering Trusts in delivering digital TV, telephone, free 24hr radio, internet, email and information services direct to bedside.

Scott Tod Straight swap with Cardpoint, basicaly in the same business, but this has further growth, much further growth left in it.

Mediwatch Exciting little Bio/health care company ready to break into the US market.

Imagination Technologies Silicoln chip maker. Rumoured to be the "New ARM"

Sanctuary Group Music company with divisions in Concerts, artists and Media.

2 Ergo Mobile communications company with cutting edge technology across all platforms.

CMS Webview Commodity software and Exchange software developer and servicer.

Zincox A play on the growing infrastructure of the newest industrial economy in the World China.

Anglo Pacific A coal miner who again I have invested in because of rising prices and incresed demand from China for coking coal and other metals.

London @ Associates Properties A fast rising NAV well above the stock price attracted me to this one, investing in large shopping centres.



SELLS

Top sliced Cardpoint 21/1/2004
also TT electronics and Datacash.

Top sliced ZOO 19/2/2004

Top sliced Zoo and JCR 29/02/2004

Top sliced JCR and ZOO plus some of my earlier stock
in BPRG at 50p and 60p. Wc March 1st

Top sliced Bema, Caldwell, JCR Zoo and Armour week ending, 12/03/2003.

Top sliced ID DATA, Telspec, Patient line, ZOO, Bema, JCR, Caldwell, Service power, on 28th and 29th of March.

Incite Holdings, sold 09/01/2004

Cardpoint, sold 30/01/2004

Centurion Electronics sold 12/2/2004

Avocett Miningsold 2/03/2004

Telspec sold after a few days of profit taking on 31/3/2004




I will be adding new recommendations to this list throughout the year, and at the moment I feel its a stock pickers market and one where value stocks with sound balance sheets will outperform. I cant really see that we will get the momentum opportunities we got in the last year from april to August and therefore as usual PATIENCE will be required.

Please feel free to make comments on the above list adding your thoughts and I wish everyone a prosperous year on the markets.

Regards Goldfinger.

Posts carried forward from old thread...........



xmortal - 03 Jan'04 - 02:34 - 192 of 193


How about EXR for the short term??. I know they posted poor FY results, BUT few directors have purchased some shares, PLUS the trend and some decent buy volumes suggest there is an upward movement coming soon and quite steep too. I will purchase some in case. Thanks


Andy - 03 Jan'04 - 19:06 - 193 of 193


Motion Media is on the cusp I think.

Either they secure orders, and go on to become a sucessful company, or they will run out of funds around June 2004.

Any large orders would see a significant hike in price, although withour follow up orders it would more than likely fall back afterwards.

Not one for the feint hearted, IMHO!.

On Motion Media Andy, I have to say the Black Prince, Colin Blackbourne still has faith in it, but I cant see it doing anything myself unless there is a takeover. The company keeps coming back to market for further funding with big promises that never seem to materialise. Its been doing this now for about two years aswell. I for one will leave it for others.

cheers GF.

GF,

I agree, Motion are in the last chance saloon now, it's sell the product or else time.

As the downside is limited to 12 points, I may take a speculative long spreadbet, with a tight stoploss, and build into the price if it rises.

I wouldn't be a share holding investor in MMD at the present time, although I have a few from better days.

goldfinger..what are your thoughts on cyh and atl????

Hi nematode, CYH not for me because of the competion about. Telematics is big business now, but afraid Im not yet drawn ito that sector. Need to see a market leader emerging.

ATL, have held this software company earlier in the year as a momentum play and did really well. Not up to date on present business but will have a gander.

Many thanks and cheers GF.

HI, just like to say I enjoy your postings and am happy you've started a new thread. Of course DYOR and all that, but I like to put the selections through my filters - some interesting choices with good succinct reasoning. Good luck for 2004.

Hi all.... being thru some of old shares mag and looking at some shares which were feature for their potential.

TGM = looks very healthy. Take a look at their news too. Good acquisition I think this will go up steady for surely thru 2004.

GNC = Well position in its markets. Good growth prospect for 2004.

ARM = I think for the next have year will do well. Lets would like to know more about if there is a Tech revival. Have the feeling is just round the corner.

MNA = Possesses (100% ownership) of a very rich high grade copper find and many more prospects in Peru. So far the shares have rallied last year from its lows of 0.40p reaching 200p last month. Numis recommends this as a very strong buy. Target price 385p (not time scale given) Copper prices have been rising as the world economy requires more raw material. Peru plays an important part of rising copper prices together with Chile. (top five world producers and exporters).

CEL = A rapid diagnostic testing company. Signed GKS as a preferred vendor. Now is reporting in US$ which should be more beneficial. One of its main client is Coca Cola.

Hi GF, Many thanks for your new thread with the up to date list. Like many others looking forward to your new recommendations and thoughts in 2004.
A very Happy New year to you and everyone who posts of the Investors Board. Regards.

xmortal,

Illiterate.

ARM - historic PE of near 60 and a number of very competent, "low-power" competitors entering the market. You must be joking! Zero for credibility I'm afraid.

Telecolm Plus tipped as share for the year by Amanda Forsyth of Standard Life in the Observer today.

In brief she says it is easy and cheap to recruit new customers through the Business model. Also says as new customers join the firms buying power will improve.

Says both the number of customers and services taken per household are expected to grow steadily, delivering forecast earnings growth of at least 30%.

The likelihood of positive earnings looks high.

The company is on the brink of joining the FTSE Mid 250 index, which will widen its audience significantly and this should help the the price of the shares. ENDS.

cheers GF.

Some more good news out today Just Car Clinics tipped in the Penny Share Focus 2004 Yearly portfolio.

cheers GF.

Just seen on another board that Cardpoint as yet been tipped again by a tip sheet across the water.

cheers GF

Add cybit holdings(cyh) and atlantic global (atl) on your list gf.Thanks.

Techinvest tips Cardpoint cash as one of its tips for the year.

cheers GF.

TT Eelectronics moves further into blue sky going northwards this morning next resistance point 179p.

cheers GF.

Both Bema BAU and African Eagle gold stocks flying this afternoon.

Both have fantastic upside potential.

cheers GF

African Eagle AFE now really pushing on northwards. Drilling results due any day and if they are as good as the company are predicting this one could go balistic.

Heres the TA.



cheers GF.

fab call on african eagle gf. up 5% already.

when drill results out?.

Glad christmas and the new year are over, nothing like the buzz of being back on the boards with freinds, great stuff. Wheres Andy havent seen him today?.

cheers GF.

i spoke to guy who works in the oil industry recently.He has not seen so much activity in years and sees 2004 as a boom year for the industry.

Well Mp that speaks volumes. Shows that the world economy is back in growth mode.

Now back to Gold and this is an interesting brokers note from one of my brokers Sey Pier,.............The US authorities are continuing to promote the idea that interest rates will remain stable in 2004. With the large budget and trade deficits, the US will need to continue to print dollars to fund its budget commitments, and spend dollars importing goods and services from overseas. This implies that the dollar will continue weakening – with consensus pointing towards a decline to US$1.35 to the euro, a further significant fall from the current level of US$1.26. The corollary of a weaker dollar is higher dollar-based commodity prices.

Clearly, supply/demand factors also influence commodity prices, but we think that gold supply factors are largely under control. This is related to the lack of exploration and development of new deposits in recent years, as low prices have constrained budgets for all but the best projects. Indeed, the rise in gold production over the past twenty years has slowed appreciably in the new century, and 2004 may actually see the first year of falling mine output.

Gold supply from the world’s central banks is also likely to remain under control, with the expectation that the Washington Agreement will be renewed later this year. This is set to maintain the limit of around 400t/year on annual gold sales by the main European central banks. As these banks had been the key sellers of gold, the initial agreement aided the supply/demand factors for the metal, and boosted sentiment.

Mining companies have also reduced gold supply through another route. This has come from their concerted attempt to reduce forward selling – which had effectively brought forward the sale of future production. The close-out of forward sales tends to work in the opposite direction, with the use of mined gold to repay gold borrowings from central banks and other lenders. Admittedly, this benefit to the gold market is set to decline over time as the proportion of mined production sold into the spot market increases. However, the prospects for lower output tend to offset this to some extent.

On the demand side, jewellery demand can be split into two areas – developed world demand (which is largely insensitive to price) and developing world demand (which is largely price sensitive). An improving global economy, leading to higher discretionary spending, should aid developed world demand, but there is likely to be some contraction in developing world consumption. This may be muted by a weaker dollar, restricting the rise in local currency prices and may slow demand contraction. Nevertheless, the decline in developing world demand is likely to be significantly above the level of growth in the developed world. Consequently, some other component of demand will have to improve in order to benefit the commodity.

Our view is that this will come from increased investment demand. This will be related to investment markets looking for other investment media in view of concerns about the dollar and worries that the US markets, in particular, stand on relatively full valuations. Given current uncertain markets we think that gold will remain an attractive home.

Exposure to gold can be gained through direct investment in the metal (aided by the recent listing of Gold Bullion Securities). However, obtaining exposure through the equity market can yield additional benefits. Pure gold producers such as AngloGold, and Harmony in South Africa (where we anticipate a return to rand weakness) could be of interest. However, UK investors may like to consider Anglo American amongst the majors, while Avocet, Highland Gold, and Peter Hambro Mining are some of the smaller UK-listed gold producers.

cheers GF.

Think they forgot African Eagle.

Ive always said I would not start looking at the Gold Explorers untill POG broke through $420, well its done that today and this company in my mind is the best potential producer around, and heres why.
MANAGEMENT

Has two experinced Managers in mining in Mark Parker and John Park, both have extensive exploration management in Africa in mining and have proved themselfs in the past selling out small mines to the big boys.

THE MINES

ZAMBIA.

Here the company as 5 potential Block busters but the REAL GEM of the company Sasere, known as EAGLE EYE is an old Gold mine but recent sampling shows that it could provide massive deposits of Copper and Gold.

These are the drilling results we are waiting for. Estimations are fantastic and we could see that the company is sitting on deposits worth many times over of the market cap of the company of circa 12.2 million.

MOZAMBIQUE

Three sites here and Nickel is the one they are looking for. Dont forget Nickel is the highest commodity riser after Gold and is hitting new highs.


TANZANIA

Big prospect here is Miyabi.

African Eagle are carrying out a joint venture with the giant Miner Gold Fields. Drilling results are to be given to Goldfields by 31/January this year.

If results are expected what the management of Goldfields want, African Eagle retain a 30% stake in one massive deposit.

This is an exciting investment but one that is HIGH RISK like any other gold explorer.

We should have news very early on two fronts.

If this news is positive we are looking at one hell of an investment.

Please Dyor and remember your buying and selling actions are in your own hands.

Cheers GF.

ps, up 19% today waiting for the results.

Profit taking going on this morning. Bit of a damp squib after such a fantastic day in the US yesterday. Never mind it looks like its a GOLDEN day.

cheers gf.

LONDON (AFX) - Healthcare Enterprise Group PLC ("HCEG") said it has sold
its entire interests in five private healthcare/biotechnology companies to The
Empire Group Fund, LP, a Delaware chartered limited partnership.
The Empire Group Fund is managed by Empire Asset Management, LLC, an
Orlando-based advisory firm that works with small enterprises to develop their
business and marketing plans and strategies, attract investment capital, and
structure exit possibilities, including public listings in the US.
Executive chairman Stuart Bruck said the disposals represent a
rationalisation step for HCEG as it concentrates on plans to develop a
substantial healthcare services business focusing on the wholesale and consumer
markets of the UK, Continental Europe and the US.
HCEG said it has sold the companies for a 5-year loan note secured by the
interests being sold, principal amount of 2.65 mln usd, bearing interest at 5
pct per annum; 20 pct of the realised increase of each of the portfolio
interests above their base amounts; and a 20 pct limited partnership interest in
the Fund.
The loan note also provides for acceleration of all or a portion of the
repayment obligation in the event of a realisation of the underlying interests
into cash or marketable securities, depending upon the amount so realised.
HCEG said it intends to apply the proceeds from the loan note when it is
repaid for general working capital and business development purposes, and
intends to retain the limited partnership in the Fund.
The interests being disposed of are minority equity interests, equity
related securities, and the right to receive certain deferred advisory fees and
fees dependent upon fundraisings and/or certain business development activities
in the five underlying private healthcare/biotechnology companies.
newsdesk@afxnews.com
slm/

Cheers TJ, interesting news.

Just opened a new position in TELSPEC TSP. There are big rumours going around that there is some big corporate news in the background, just what we will have to see. I do beleive the share is massively undervalued anyway and have always been put off this one due to its past poor management. Will do a further update later on.

cheers GF.

Well theres been some big volume for Telspec today and the buys havent managed to move it too much. Im sure the MMs know of the rumours circulating.

cheers GF.

Another fantastic day. My top three, by strength,

TT Electronics

Centurion Electronics

Carsdpoint

From now on other than telspec, I am looking at value companies and going back to what I know best.

Cheers GF.

Telspec up, Cardpoint up African Eagle up, not bad on a lousy day.

More to come on Telspec, got the 'lousy flu and feel like a wet saturday night'.

cheers GF.

Nice tip update on the HCEG thread.

cheers GF.

Gf,

Cardpoint is going from strength to strength, I'm going to recommend my shareclub top up next week.

I don't see a good Xmas for them, as many people use credit cards rather than cash from their bank to fund purchases, and most bank cashpoints are in the town centres, whereas Cardpoint terminals are in alternative locations.

Andy, Evo Bees Greg have put out a buy note today and update will follow in next few days. Will report back on it.

cheers GF.

GF,

OK thanks, I wondered why Cardpoint was marked up so much at the open!
it's settled down now.

Have you seen a copy of the buy not from EVO?

CARDPOINT ALSO FEATURED IN TODAY'S SHARES MAG SMALL SHARE OUTLOOK FOR 2004 (PAGE 27)
ERIC BURNS OF HORTON FINNEY RATING THE STOCK "HIGHLY ATTRACTIVE"

Cheers BishopJ, will get a copy.

Andy yes, if you want a copy set up a new e-mail eg, with lycos or another free one and I will send it on. Its in pdf format so cant load it to word.

cheers GF.

More on Telspec now. Bought at 20.4p.
The company is valued at just 7.8 million, but yet it has cash well over 3 million on the books.

There is a cylical Global Recovery going on in the telecolms markets and ultimatly I am sure we will see this filter down to Telspecs order books.

The 2nd half of last year was not good and even after spending around 6 million on research and development the company should achieve close to break even.

This company in my opinion should be capable of generating sales of around 45 million and profits after R@D of about 3 million, but after excluding cash it is valued at just 3.5 million, yes just 3.5. million.

Its a long term buy in my books, speculative.

Please DYOR and remember you are responsible for your own timing of buying and selling actions.

cheers GF.

JUST CAR CLINICS now up 36% and bombing.

cheers GF.

GF just seen and read this thread keepup the good work

cheers.

HT.

Cheers HT.

I see that Tom Winnifrith and colin Blackbourne the 'black prince' feel that there is corporate action going on behind the scenes at Telspec TSP. Strange beacause there was an afx message this afternoon saying that Siemens who have a contract with Telspec, were looking at making acquisitions!!!!!!!!!!!!.

Make of it what you will. It could be just pure speculation, time will tell as usual.

cheers GF.

CRC has gone on the watch list. I dont like the poor margins at this company circa of 8% but there is no denying that it looks in recovery mode and has had a good last three days.

cheers GF.

Hi all

Old time favourite of mine is Tadpole Technology, TAD.
Been having a bad time for some time now but has turned it all around.
Has risen quite a bit lately but this is only starting to be relised, A long way to go yet.
Tipped in Share Mags as well.

M

I like TAD to but just dont know when or if to jump in being tipped in shares mag means that 10 days time could be back to 12p but will more action when they get that 2M payment but that wont last for ever !!

HT.

It was revealed on www.WatsHot.com that Colin Blackbourn - the ace small cap investor known as the Black Prince had started to accumulate shares in Tadpole Technology (up 1p at 15p). The Black Prince is rumoured to reckon that the shares could top 100p within a year.

Lots of press and tipping going on now especially since "The Company Transforming" deal with EDS.

M

We may be on for a GOLDen week.

cheers GF.

Rather a grey day today.

Cardpoint keeps going up as does TT Electronics, but the gold shares look like they are taking a breather.

Roll on tuesday.

cheers GF.

Fantastic news for Datacash this morning, opens the door for a multitude of contracts. Just added in a big way to my holding.

Profit taking going on at cardpoint but TT Electronics continues its run upwards.

cheers GF.

Hightone....reckon your right.....Tad back to 12p.......best to wait me thinks.

I just getting ready to jump in and it comes back that is just the problem when a share sticks at a low point it gets good news but seems to fall on death ears, okay to try and day trade but i like LTBAH.

ANYONE here any thoughts on AFD being in since 10p now 20p if all goes well very good news round the corner.

HT.

Hightone, as an online pal would you please post the company name on first posting.

This saves a lot of assing about and we can get straight to the nitty gritty instead of arsing about searching, sorry nothing meant negative ifs just a pain in thee bum.

cheers slater.

Hi,
Someone heared you GF,Telecomplus up 8 points today,,now should see a push towards 430.

Mark

Goldfinger, are you still interested in Romag (ROM)? Results out today, look good but I'd be interested in your view.

eibbor, yup noticed them and they are excelent. I might be tempted to buy in and add to my list. Presently looking at this one plus SVR .

Bought into armour group yesterday at 73.5p

cheers GF.

Opened a new position in Armour Group yesterday at 73.5p. More to come.

cheers GF.

Centurion has come back to live again this afternoon, great stuff. Over 150p level.

cheers GF.

AFG

GOLDFINGER what do you mean post company name on first posting ?? (-:

HT.

HT, not sure where you mean, could you please copy the post. Many thanks, GF.

Quite morning, nice to see Telspec up and Datacash powering away. Pipex, looks like it is now set to break out which is good news.

cheers GF.

Taken some profits in T T Electronics. Still in though with a nice holding.

cheers GF.

goldfinger i mean this cheers




hightone - 13 Jan'04 - 21:32 - 48 of 58 edit



I just getting ready to jump in and it comes back that is just the problem when a share sticks at a low point it gets good news but seems to fall on death ears, okay to try and day trade but i like LTBAH.

ANYONE here any thoughts on AFD being in since 10p now 20p if all goes well very good news round the corner.

HT.


goldfinger - 13 Jan'04 - 23:19 - 49 of 58


Hightone, as an online pal would you please post the company name on first posting.

This saves a lot of assing about and we can get straight to the nitty gritty instead of arsing about searching, sorry nothing meant negative ifs just a pain in thee bum.

cheers slater.

Tipped again,CARDPOINT,
seem's to be almost every tipster's favourite.

Investors Chronicle



Tips:

*Buy - Hilton , Wincanton , Minerva , Fountains , Cardpoint (LSE: CASH.L - news) and Victoria

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/040116/237/ejkiu.html

GF

Bema Gold has crashed, what are your opinions on a bounceback?

Apple, dont worry too much its already up this morning and is a very volatile share. I was reading on some of the US sites late into the night yesterday that we may have another soft two weeks to come with gold stocks in general , but the word is dont panic. This one when it moves does move and I think we will see it regaining its former highs in the 240s and moving on as long as POG moves up. Stick in there.

cheers GF.

GF

I haven't got any shares in Bema Gold but I was thinking of buying.

Why did it crash so badly?

Up nearlly 4% this evening at close. Sorry apple it didnt crash, please look at the daily trading.

cheers GF.

GF

It went down from about 245 to 170.

Why?

It is now at 178.5p.

Before I am decide if this is a buying opportunity, I would like to know why it dropped so much.

The directors have been selling but why?

Apple because POG has been dropping. No problem with director sells, just like any other holders of the stock.

If you dont like the story not worth buying. I will add and add no problems.

I suggest you look at some of the earlier items on the thread refering to the stock, plus Shares Mag as a good write up on it this week.

cheers GF.

Have a look at citywire tip atlantic global(atl)it's a good unkown company.

Will do nematode, has it been featured this week?.

cheers GF.

goldfinger,
Do you have an opinion on Ffastfill (FFA)?

MONEYLENDER took the pluge and bought into TAD 1st this morning funny how many trades went through this morning before markets opened 7.45 onwards and soon as 8.00 came price up my 0.5p fiddling people (-: but in for the long term now.

HT.

B askin, yes its on my watch list. If you look at the RNS tonigh one of the directors wives has a big buy credited to her.

cheers GF.

Cheers GF.
I actually posted my question just before the news item came up on my stockwatch
closely followed by a rise of 10%.
Lets hope my next post has a similar effect.
BA.

Opened a new Position in Patient Line PTL, this morning hoping for good things from this monopoly within the NHS.

Added ZOO aswell, but I would keep a close eye on this one as I think it is just B/B hype that as pushed it up, we will see. Dont be afraid to take profits.

cheers GF.

Well Zoo up 27% and looking strong. Still havent come across any reason for this.

cheers GF.

Nice to see Telspec doing nicely this morning. A share which is still massively undervalued.

cheers GF.

Telspec was up just over 20% last time I looked. maybe its correct that there is some corporate action going on here.

cheers GF.

Well the DOW closed up over 100 ppoints and there was some good news for techs in after hours trades. Could be in for a good day tomorrow.

chers Gf.

Well a mixed morning and looks like the posr xmas and new year spike is gradually slipping away. Never mind it makes it more interesting seeking out winners and value, talking of which as anybody tuned into the prospects of Patientline, looks a gem of a business to me.

cheers Gf.

African gold is up 27% - why ? answers on a post-card...

Well done to African gold, lets hope african Eagle goes the same way.

Did anybody see tonights 10 oclock news/. Shipping is booming on the back of the expanding chinese economy. What stocks to look at? J fisher which I hold, Clarkson is another and what about Braemar Seascope, food for thought.

cheers GF.

GF
Are you still confident about the long term prospects for ZOO?

B Askin, yes I am and I havent sold one share and wont do either, please see the ZOO thread.

cheers GF.

Cheers GF. Will continue to hold with more confidence.
BA.

G F-PXC are moving up again do you think tgere is some good news coming?

There is talk of a further acquisition over on adfvn, but to be honest I suppose that is just rumour. Lets hope they just keep building the network and an update would help a lot.

cheers GF.

very bad news for CUC and tragic for the family - on the wires this morning


The Board of Centurion announces with regret that Chairman and Chief Executive
Steven Cunningham was killed in a road accident on Friday 23 January.

The Board has met over the weekend and will meet again later today to confirm
the appointment of an interim Chairman.

A further statement will be issued following that meeting.

Shares taking a real knock today - but the personal tragedy also puts all this in to perspective

Certainly does BJ. But life goes on. Dont really like talking about this one at the moment but have to say as usual we have had one big over reaction on the market. Nows the time to buy these if you are a holder or a prospective holder.
Wont say anymore lets leave that to the board.

cheers GF.

Turned out to be a very good day except for Centurion and I think the MMs have really overdone this one. Mind there is a lot of speculative talk going on about a take over. Lets see what happens.

cheers GF.

Some of your tips so far aint doing very well Goldfinger. I'm not having a go at you though.
Bema gold has fallen a lot and avocet mining are stagnant. I hold avocet and Oxus gold. Do you know why gold shares in general are doing so poorly cos i think oxus and avocet are good long term plays over next few years.

Never liked the sound of Zoo so wasnt surprised in their warning last week.

Some arent scotinvestor notably ZOO ( but I have confidence in it, in fact if you look on the ZOO thread you will see that Julie has pocketed two thousand quid profit in it last week when I said sell before the warning) but a lot are.

Gold shares have been affected by POG and the relationship to the dollar which as strengthened a little of late but I still think we are going to see a softening there and gold shares going back up.

I certainly wouldnt sell avocet or Oxus or any mining share until we see an interest rates rise in the US and what impact it as on POG.

Suprised your not in African Eagle. Good luck.

cheers GF.

Never liked Zoo either. Very overhyped, not surprised at it's warning.

Dow down 141, Zoo will slide from here.

Please remember board posters ThirdEye as had a warning from the board administrators and is being carefully watched.

What a lovely reply from a real lady..........................



disciple - 26 Jan'04 - 14:21 - 157 of 164


hi goldfinger, thank you for, as ever, your very informative reply, that clears things up for me. Had a giggle about the 'women are better at controlling money bit' I don't know if I fit that description yet! but I have banked about 2 grand thanks to zoo so far, and although that may be loose change to some people I am well chuffed I can tell you, as this is the first share I ever bought. I'll continue to hold zoo long term and wait and see, but I agree the dvd extra side of things seems more promising.
thanks again
regards julie.


cheers GF

Goldfinger,

Why is it necessary for you to personally attack "thirdeye" every time he posts?

If he has a contrarian view, that's fine, these are discussion boards after all, and if we all agreed, it would be terribly boring!

Your posts are good, although I don't agree with all your selections, but that's fine too, because who's to say you're right and i'm wrong, or vice versa?

If you have a problem with thirdeye on ADVFN, I think you should address it there, and not here.

Andy, if you check out his posts you will see that 90% are directed at me and are spoiling tactics. Its not a matter of who is right or wrong. Do you wish this board to become another advfn? because I can tell you this if you leave it to thirdeye it will.

cheers GF.

Andy if your still there heres one for you and your club.

Scott Tod, very similar to Cardpoint but as a few extras thrown in.

cheers GF.

Sorry forgot the price is around 42p and deals in change machines, cash dispensers and ATMS.

cheers Gf.

Code is SCD, think this one will be a real cracker.

cheers GF.

Scott Tod SCD already up 13% and bombing away.

cheers GF

Anyone any news on Incite (INC). Heavily marked down the past couple of days on VERY low volumes?

Rich

Goldfinger.

SCD do look interesting, and a decent rise today too, thanks.

ROS (Ramco) recovering nicely this morning, may have a quick spreadbet here.

I agree about ADVFN, but why not use the squelch button for thirdeye?

regards,

Andy.

Hi GF
I bought into CUC yesterday as it has bombed since the tragedy and your word "over reaction" struck a chord but its continuing to bomb - would appreciate your thoughts - I look at the posts on ADVFN (altho amusing at times, I agree that I would hate to see the aggressive unpleasantness migrate to moneyam) and there are constant references to the manipulative MM games - my description being a lot more polite! - I think the talk of their role is overdone and overinflated but in this instance, I wondered what your views on CUC and the MMs role in the price drop is ?
Regards
Anna

jf,

I don't follow CUC, but from what I have read since this tragedy, sadly, this guy WAS the company!

He was the driving force, and so his sad and untilemely death has caused the market to perceive CUC in a totaly negative way.

Until the dust has settled, I for one, wouldn't be a buyer. For those already holding, you would have to look at the possible downside from here onwards I think.

Thanks for your response Andy
Unfortunately I'm in at a loss already and have to decide whether to continue holding or not - on advfn, they are posting about CUC being bought and the value that would be put on the company.....

jf,

well the markdown has been savage, 30% or so, since the tragedy.



I guess it's hard to say, and dangerous to predict, but POSSIBLY most of the selling is now out of the way, and there must be a possibility of a buyout, which would no doubt add some value to the current shareprice, providing of course it doesn't fall too much more.

It would depend on the level of your current losses as to whether holding or selling is a good idea, only you can decide.

Strangely, I was going to buy some, but this happened before I could release the funds.

Good luck with your decision.

fj,

it has just bounced a fraction, an intraday chart is posted below, I suggest you keep an eye on it.

GF any views on why AFE has gone down by 10% today?

I was quite positive that Goldfields would take up the partnership with them...or is there rumours to the contrary?

I am still confident that AFE will do well in Mid-long term...

Your views on this one is much appreciated

Andy
Thanks again for the feedback - you must be pretty glad you ended up not buying - and regarding selling being out of the way, I don't have level 2 but from what I can see, there is pretty small volume being traded anyway - will just keep a close eye on this one

Hi Anna, yes its a tradgedy what has happened here as this company was looking very strong. I agree with a lot of what andy has said. Let it settle down and lets see what develops. I dont really think the next results or the ones after that are going to be affected, its the long term that could be a worry. I have added at the lower prices as I think the whole company could go up for sale, but sometimes these are lengthy jobs and patience will be required.

Hi Overman, well we were supposed to get news before the 31st of this month but thats going to be difficult now. Just wondering if the two parties are holding back for about three weeks when the sample results will be known and perhaps POG has risen again. Its obviously POG that is depressing the price of the small miners but I think we should see it rising again. A lot depends on the dollar relationship. By the way there is word that if goldfields do drop out there is a big miner waitng to take their place.

cheers GF.

Thanks GF for your info and opinion...I guess the lack of news on the partnership has panicked some holders. I personally am still quietly confident that the deal would go through and the RNs will be next Monday morning (fingers crossed). Either way I am gonna hang on to my holdings and like you said there are other partners waiting in the wings in the event that this doesn't happen with goldfields.

There are other drilling results expected in the next few weeks ?

Thx again GF and regards

Overman

GF - Thanks for getting back to me - will see what happens on Monday - given what's happened to the share price, I would have thought that a balanced statement of some sort would be forthcoming from the remaining management very soon, they have to be seen to be acting but without insensitivity too - my loss on this since Wed more than offset by the PXC gains, thank you for that original tip
Regards
Anna

Cheers Guys. Invested in a new company well swopped one of the established one for another one in the sme field. Scott Tod, SCD swapped for Cardpoint. Evolution Beeson Grgory had a Buy up to 119p on cardpoint and its gone through that. SCD is in the same field and as a lot of growth left in it I feel. Been watching it along with ambient another one in this fiels but SCD chart is fantastic and trendwatch and advfn chart/breakout are very positive. After again looking at it thursday evening I just had to have some of the action. More to come mid week, the day job with all this snow and floods is taking all my business time up.



Please have a good weekend.

cheers GF.

CUC bouncing back at the moment, lets hope it can sustain this.

cheers GF.

Added more Scott Tod SCD doing very well again and think results are the 11th of this month. CUC doing nicely anna, and Pipex carrying on from where it left off last week.

Nice start to the week after an up and down one last week.

cheers GF.

ps, looks like Zoo is staging a recovery aswell, early days yet.

Hi GF
Haven't had peace of mind since buying CUC and very happy and relieved to see it bouncing back but am wondering if I should just sell now - I risk losing further gains but I also avoid losses if price heads south again - how do you feel about CUC GF - are you holding and if so, do you intend to continue for now?
Regards
Anna

SCD looking very good. Results as you say on Feb 11th and investor presentation too suggesting confidence and hopefully new institutions will be attracted in.

As goldfinger knows, I lurk here but comment occasionally. I hold CUC but guaranteed some profit by halving the holding at 1.33 after the dreadful announcement. Since then I have been doing some obvious research as to the succession.

First, the new MD has a substantial holding, is the FD and knows the City merry-go-round as she must have been on the city-tour with Steven. She is not a grey blur to analysts.

Secondly, I called the company today, just to check on the details for the AGM. Now this is an extreme day for the company. They are closed not only out of respect for Steven Cunningham, but because probably all staff and directors are attending his funeral today. A brave and correct decision, but a very good recorded message and a brilliant website, kept up to date too. What happens? The share price goes up!

This is not a company in panic. I'm holding my original stake and will await further announcements.

(Does anybody know when the AGM is, please?!)

Yes vasey, think your right. I never panic perhaps that is a fault in me but I find that in most cases it serves me well. Anna short term and medium term it is still the same company and has all the previous contacts in place so earnings should not be affected. What you do tend to find with this one is one day its well up only to find the next day its well down. If you have made a profit and you cant decide why not take the profit off and leave the rest there as your original stake.

I Hawick, yes SCD is turning out to be a cracker.

cheers GF.

ps, AGM may have been re arranged I would check in the morning vasey, good luck.

A very good day andthe best for a while bar AFE, but having said that the canny investors among us will realise this one could be a real winner.

Cheers Gf.

GF,,what are your thoughts on Alkane Energy(ALK)??

For those watching CUC, I have just spoken to the company. AGM is 10am on Tuesday 10th Feb at the company's offices. Anyone considering attending, they would appreciate some proof that you are a shareholder, ie a letter from the broker through whom you hold the shares confirming your holding if your interest in held in nominee. Plus a phone call just to say you will be attending as they have no idea how many people to expect!

Hi

Anybody can comments about how's AFG doing!

Appreciate that info Vasey, thanks - and GF, yes panic is hardly ever good but I have stopped and thought many times on this one (CUC) and felt both humbled and lucky to be here to panic about it, unlike poor Steve Cunningham. Sold 25% of my holdings on Wednesday
Regards
Anna

GF,any news on Incite holdings and I notice you've now put an addition indicating you sold Incite on 09/01/04,was that ever stated on the bb,ie did u recommend it as a sell at that point?

Nematode, yup your right theres been plenty of news on Incite over the last few days and some of it is not very nice. There is talk of a deal with NTL but think its best to see what actually comes out on the company when it comes back from suspension. As ever it is the business and responsibility of the shareholder to decide when to sell or buy.

Hi Anna well I see CUC went up again today only just on a bad day, seems you may have got the best of both worlds, well done.

Joe 2506, think its best to log into the AFE thread.

Good luck regards GF.

ps, taking a four day break in Spain. Need it to recharge the batteries will see you monday unless I use my lap top.

OH just forgot, watch out for a positive company statement from Bioprogress probably thursday or friday. Remember you saw it here first.

cheers GF.

They jumped the gun by a day but what a cracking deal for Bioprogress.

Had a few bob on British Energy BGY, as a trading investment. Could see a big return here but its risky DYOR. Off to catch my plane now sees youu.

cheers GF.

As per usual excellent call GF.Enjoy your well earned break!!!!

cmjham40 - 4 Feb'04 - 07:39 - 5189 of 5210


Small Caps, AIM and Ofex:
HMM

On a day when our esteemed Prime Minister appears to have had something of a damascene conversion on the existence (or otherwise ) of WMD in Iraq there was an even more dramatic volte face concerning British Energy. Bear raider Evil Knievil has been shorting the stock aggressively for almost a year (and is well ahead on that short) but Knievil now thinks that the company's fortunes have changed dramatically for the better. Knievil revealed exclusively on www.t1ps.com that he has not only closed his short but has taken a significant long position in the expectation that the shares could head well into three figures. With his followers acting quickly to follow suit the shares closed ahead by 1.41p at 7.91p. Evil promises a full explanation of his change of heart as well as the complete run down on why Jarvis (up 3p at 150p today on the back of small scale director buying on Monday) is heading towards the buffers on his regular EvilCast webcast on Wednesday at midday on t1ps.com

Hi G,

Do you subscribe to www.t1ps.com ? If you do, would you recommend ?

Blois, its one of many good tip sites but has guest apperances from the likes ogf nigel wray, Colin Blackbourne, Evil and others. Sorry have to go just going from the airport at Alicante, my mobiles looking like its going.
cheers.

Test, im on holiday in Spain at the moment back sunday evening, can you please remind me then, and we can go through it. Have opened up a new position today and closed two.

Flogged BGY and BPRG after 90 mins of the market opening both up a few percentage points but market in general was turning red, have had stonking returns from both and may revisit both very early especially BPRG.

There are some people saying the BGY one is just a two day wonder. I for one am not convinced. More on that when Im back in the UK but watch it very closely over the next few days, those two hedge funds could be lurking just under 3% to pounce again.

OH the new BUY, bought MEDIWATCH MDW as a bio play on male cancer problems. Could be very near to an announcement on a distribution contract with a US Health Giant. Keep your eyes peeled, more to come and please DYOR.

cheers GF.

Goldfinger.
Hiya.
Where abouts are you staying in Spain.
Would be nice to meet up with you. I live about 40 minutes drive from Alicante Airport.
Hoping.

BLOIS - Re your query on t1ps - I am a subscriber and a happy one too.

IMO extremely good value for money; not just because of the occasional tips which you filter to suit your own investment strategy; but you also receive a daily market assessment, usually with input from Zak Mir (one of the UK's leading chartists). You also receive excellent webcasts with Nigel Wray, Evil and others, such as Hugh Hendry of ODEY Asset Management.

Adding together all the benefits, the sub is excellent value.

GF, bought SCD today for 56p, am i in to late or is there more growth with this stock?

Should be more growth from SCD. Results on the 11th and should be good.

Watch out for corporate deals in this business.

Testex had a good look, blimey theres a lot going on there at PLX, might be tempted but I already have three gold miners. Will have another think. Cheers .

cheers GF.

Nobody into Mediwatch MDW, think this ones going to be a good investment wiil do more on this when back on sunday.

cheers GF.

SKYSHIP - Thanks very much for your input.

GF Would appreciate any thoughts on PMD and IDD.

Strongly considering MDW

GF,good call on BPRG.You were smack on about RNS.Any idea when next RNS will be announced and on which product?

Regards.

Nematode, watch out for an update please on monday morning. Have to clear things first before I can release news. Scrooge, will get back to you monday, still here in Spain, coming back sun early morning so sorry havent that much time at the moment. Just done an update on MDW.

cheers GF.

I see theres a thread already setup on MDW and I dont wish to steal anybodys thunder, so just giving a short reco here on it. will use the established thread in the future..........

MEDIWATCH MDW

Time to take note of these I think and either place on the radar screen or Buy. I bought on Thursday.

What Do They Do

Innovative UK manufacturer of high tech screening and diagnostic systems for urological disorders.

Latest Business Organisational Update

• FDA approval of the Portascan applied for and subsequently granted in
December 2003.

• Distribution agreements put in place in important markets across the
world.

• UK sales organisation rebuilt and refocused.

• New product opportunities to complement and strengthen the existing
range identified.

• Satisfactory progress with the development of the quantitative point of
care PSA diagnostic system.

Financials

Interims31/10/2003.
The operating margin in the period was 32% compared with 31% in the previous
year and the benefits of tight control of overheads resulted in expenditure of
590,000, - 115,000 less than in the comparable prior year period. In summary
therefore, the operating loss, after 174,000 amortisation of goodwill (231,000
in 2002), was 641,000 compared with 689,000 for the six months to 31st October
2002.
Cash on the books was 418,000 compared to 64,000 at the same time last year. With Sales increasing the position of the company gets stronger by the day.

Technical Products Update

• A joint venture with two US corporations to develop the next generation
of the one-stop diagnostic system. This product should be launched in the second
half of 2004.

• The development of a disposable product to assist control of
incontinence associated with prostate conditions. This will be available mid
2004.

• The development of a compact specimen collection device for prostate
biopsies. This will be available mid 2004.

• Preliminary plans to extend the portable bladder scanner range into
three other pathology areas.

Forward Outlook

A recovery in UK sales is
underway and negotiations with C R Bard for up to 9 other European countries
plus the Middle East to become party to the scanner supply agreement are
progressing. Export markets were a major focus for business development in the
period and distribution agreements were signed covering Japan, South East Asia
including Australasia. Negotiations are also in progress for sales
representation in India, Korea, China and Japan (for products not already included)

Jewel In The Crown

Most importantly however, access to the huge US market will have the
most significant impact on future sales and during the period FDA approval was
sought and recently received for the portable bladder scanner. Negotiations are
now at final stage with a large US distributor in relation to this and other
products of the Group.

CEO Philip Stimpson commented after the FDA approval for the portable bladder scanner, "the company is close to signing a distribution deal with a major International healthcare group"

Directors Buys

29 January 2004 ... The Company received notification today that
Philip Stimpson, Chief Executive Officer of the Company, bought 125,000
ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 8.03 pence each on 28 January 2004.

Kevin Middis, Finance Director,
bought 60,000 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 8.03 pence each on 28
January 2004.

Omer Karim, Non-Executive Medical
Research Director, bought 475,000 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of
8.03 pence each on 28 January 2004.
A CLEAR SIGN THAT THE MANAGEMENT ARE VERY CONFIDENT OF THE COMPANYS FUTURE

Company Website

www.mediwatch.com

Summing up the shares are around 10.2p to buy and there are circa of 23.4 million in circulation. I rate this a speculative punt and as ever if you are tempted please DYOR and remember you are responsible for your own buying and selling timing actions.

cheers Gf.

Thanks GF, eagerly wait for an update on BPRG.MDW sounds good,will make a punt!

Nematode - with respect to Goldfinger, any news on BPRG will come from BPRG. It has been known for 3 months that the FMC deal and another with a top-ten US OTC pharma company would be finalised around now. It is a matter of days probably for the second one (but FMC was over one-month later than BPRG originally estimated). The second one was expected end-Jan but legal loose-ends often delay things. The only thing not known is the likely impact of the deals. That's why the estimates of a minimum $160m over 6 years from FMC was so positive. That's why I believe the next announcement will also go down well because the name of the top ten US OTC pharma will be revealed, hopefully!

All this paper talk of "gossip" about another deal is so much journalistic claptrap. There IS a deal coming unless it's called off, and that's unlikely!

Read the RNS's on your companies and you get a better picture than journalists who can't be bothered to read them!

BTW Goldfinger, the last post was not a dig at you. I have picked up companies to research myself from your threads (eg Datacash). I do think though that there are a lot of "investors" who treat journalists as demi-gods even though some don't bother to do much research. People have to do more of their own digging if they want to make money long-term. The journos won't tell them when to sell!

Anybody think Ramco (ROS) is worth a punt, big fall recently on news seems a massive overreaction. I bought in last Friday. Although a risk massive upside is potentially there short/medium and long term. The apparent experts were tipping this a short time ago at a price Of 4 plus with a target of 7 to 8. Current price - 1.20ish. Any views - cheers.

I also bought into Anite Group on Friday at 55p, lots of big buys for this share yesterday. Also MM's seem extremely keen to obtain these in large amounts, possibly news approaching. Again views appreciated.

Cheers GF.

Hmmm. MDW, CEN or RDN Monday?

PXC, RTD, XTL already from Jun 03.

Bones no problem mate. Im not like that unless we get a deliberate spoiler on the thread or site. BPRG, more to come as you say, and the newspaper financial press well????????? best thing they could do is keep the price down for me as I buy in cheap lol, dont want to put them off.

cheers GF.

Just been looking at some of my holdings waiting for the plane to bring me back to manchester. Have to say Patientline sticks out head and shoulders on a lot due to its future potential. What a cracker this looks. The profits when they come on stream will be excellent. Just done a few figures but it not due to break into a net profit for a while yet, but amazing, just amazing the potential revenues from its bed side terminals. Breathtaking. right Im off.

cheers Gf.

GF,looks like the next deal or RNS is not far away for BPRG Judging from previous RNS's.This bodes well for this week.Out of curiousity,any idea how long to the OTC deal?Must be very close.

Nematode - I read a quote from the BPRG CEO that the FMC deal was very complicated, hence the delay in announcing it. The inference was that the next deal (and more) is a bit more straightforward.

So, I am hoping for the OTC deal to emerge in the next week or two. It will be a big name so I hope they can say who. It is for exclusive use of another of BPRG's technologies covering the USA and the EU only. It entails the OTC company to build a film plant in the USA which will then also be availble to service BPRG's other US customers. BPRG have already said they are talking big numbers (in the RNS in November)

This leaves deals for non-USA/EU territories for that same technology to be done. It leaves the other two technologies to be commercialised. There is also ostomy which is already licenced to Bristol Myers Squibb and the product should roll this year.

All exciting because you have seen what "completed deal" and a big name and figures does to the share price and stirs the newspapers into action.

The good thing is the share price often moves slowly at first after the announcement. After FMC, you could have picked up BPRG in the early 80p area for a good couple of hours after the open (up only a few pence). You don't have to risk all on the hope of something. You can wait for the announcement and move quickly on the open!

But, as always, Do Your Own Research!

Hope you had an enjoyable break Goldfinger and welcome back. I have bought into Mediwatch and am now been looking into a share called Bioprojects. BIP. Would be grateful for any thoughts you have on this one when you have the time. Many thanks. McPaulass.

Welcome back from hols but where r u GF???Cospicuous by your absence!!!Need you to spread the gospel on the BPRG thread.

Sorry guys this foreign ale and my, how can I put it nicely she may look in, girlfreind just shag me out on holiday. Might have to look at the old viagra.

Normal service resumed in the morning.

PS, fantastic day on the market, we really took them apart. More to come aswell, Bioprogress well its going to be massive, yup just massive, went round all the brokers this morning buying, and will do tommorow aswell.

cheers GF

Looks like you came back as dried as a prune GF.

BPRG,obviously short -term volatility will be caused by traders unless RNS comes out then I'm sure that will offset proceddings.The OTC deal must be well overdue by now???

Nematode its certainly going ahead. Theres no ifs and buts as Mr Hind as commented.

cheers GF.

added to new long LNB at 72 - thanks for this Slater.

GF I presume you have seen this appraisal from AMreview its a brief summary of the co so far if anyone is interested. It is not on the other thread either
Report updated: 28th January 2004
As the original name implied, Mediwatch - once Prostcare - had had the objective of funding projects for the diagnosis and treatment of prostate diseases, objectives which have commercial ends of course. To further this end it acquired Karim Ltd., in April 2000. 7.2 million shares were issued in consideration; a private placing raised 1.6 million at 50p per share; admission to AIM, and a 360,000, 60p, placing followed, after which the shares did quite well for a bit. The eponymous Karim was named for Mr. Omer Karim, a consultant urological surgeon at Heatherwood and Wexham Park NHS Trusts. A distinguished and respected international specialist, as was his co-director, Mr. Mark Emberton, (a senior oncology lecturer at University College London) there was a profound corporate interest in novel applications for computing power to assist in their specialist field. The business strategy was to create a facility for walk-in/walk out units as part of a diagnostic initiative; to create interest in the disease through a website; and to fund lines of research. As with all such enterprises, the motivation is impeccable and the objective praiseworthy. But whereas although such businesses are generally rooted in science, even if investment is an act of faith, Prostcare was more hard-edged, depending as it did upon the attraction of men in sufficient numbers, men anxious to obtain access to the diagnostic services provided. A strong threat to the success of the venture of course was any future availability of free prostrate cancer screening on the National Health Service. However there was an abrupt change of emphasis as the shares were suspended on the first day of September 2000, to allow shareholders to vote on the planned acquisition of MediWatch. A crunching 10 million shares were issued to the vendor of the company (a then value of 8 million). Mediwatch, which makes medical diagnostic equipment in the same urological area, had just crept into profit to December 1999. Consummation of the deal saw the group change its name to Mediwatch, and Mr.Philip Stimpson take the corporate helm as Chief Executive. A private placing had raised 200,000 in November 2000, partly from the illustrious figure of Lord Hanson. And a February 2001 statement announced the expected signing of an agreement for the supply of portable bladder scanners to a large US medical care company. Later the same month the interim figures for the seven-month period to 29th October 2000 showed a 210,000 operating loss, but this before the Mediwatch reversal. As time passed, and the shares settled gently downwards towards their offer price and well beyond, the need for a further capital injection became more palpable, and the company adopted a more recognisable mien, medical device company; even if the first diagnostic unit opening was put only on hold. For the record the company lost 830,000 in its first year of operations, (to March 2001) a figure which included 250,000 for the amortisation of goodwill. 1.2 million having been raised at 40p in September 2001, the company, the shares sagging horribly afresh, reported a 600,000 operating loss for the six-month period to October 2001, not a good headline figure even if about 30% of it came from goodwill amortisation. Turnover had amounted to 150,000, and generalities apart, the most concrete element in the investment case was an initial order for the portable bladder scanner, which was expected to assist a targeted sales increase in the second half of the year. By June 2002 572,000 more fruits of a 10p placing, strengthened the balance sheet. Despite market conditions which are dead foul, the shares were exhibiting some resilience, an indication that Mr. Stimpson had his followers - and followers expecting him to deliver. Well he didn't, recording a 2 million loss to April 2002, as, blaming a lack of capital, flying about every flag of corporate distress known - except the final one - yet - he strips out every element of cost and development expenditure prays for a quick take up of the instrument to bring him succour. The six-month period to October 2002 showed sales of 800,000 serve only to engender a 450,000 pre-goodwill amortisation operating loss, and the company, striving to complete its initial order and hoping for more of course, is planning to raise more sorely-needed capital. A pipe-opener to the latter could well be a February 2003 announcement that a previously announced initial distribution contract - it is with CR Bard, a worldwide leader in the urological field - has gone well enough to allow a five-year agreement to be entered into - one which covers the United Kingdom, France, Benelux and Scandinavia. Sales could - note that last word - run at close to 1 million a year. This was followed by a 750,000 placing at 2.5p per share, and a general financial clean up; there were also three new faces in the boardroom. 250,000 into the coffers at 2.5p followed in April 2003 - 100,000 more the next month at the same price. Come October and the full-year figures to April 2003 were eventually produced; sales three times up on those of 2002, at 1.5 million; but as the aforesaid clear-out included a 4.7 million goodwill write-off, there was a 5.5 million loss, a figure which indicated a pretty serious core deficit nonetheless. But a spreading distribution network abroad reassures in part, even if one wonders at the indifferent UK start to the present financial year to which the report felt it necessary to draw attention. Meanwhile the R&D spend continues as does the hopes vested in additional product - in 2004 there will be a "one-stop" device to be marketed. In January 2004 FDA approval for the portable device was obtained. A few days later and the six-month figures to October 2003 revealed; the distortions caused, it was said, by a restructured sales initiative being the real reason for the 50% fall in turnover, to 400,000; and by extention the 600,000 loss. With just 400,000 in the bank, the opened doors to the markets had surely better see some traffic soon.




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Editor: William Johnston

Hi GF -
Also regarding MDW - I wanted to input very relevant info and a poster's analysis from another website for your perusal, hope this is not inappropriate -what do you think of following.....
Regards
Anna

all posts from today
"Estimated annual turnover in US alone of $20m. Plus signing new distrubution deals for new products to other countries - news that will be coming in the same RNS. So add 50% for other turnover worldwide and thats $30m turnover. Say thats approx 17m (sterling) turnover potential for 04/05. Mkt cap of growth companise typically three times sales (its a far better guide than PE ratios for this sort of high growth stock). So that three times sales = fair value mkt cap of 3 x 17m = 51m mkt cap is fair value. Its now at a tiddly mkt cap of 10m ish !!! Multiple from here of 5 times the share price = genuine fair value mkt cap.

Plus : The bladder scanner is getting distrubuted worldwide in the same RNS so annual turnover estimate of $30m only adds in $10m from outside the US, which is very conservative.

I forgot to mention the fact that Mediwatch has operated on a profit margin of 32% year in, year out and again this past year. And a 32% margin, is, in fact, the dogs bollocks, so to speak.

(US $20m estimate widely available in AFX announcements from MDW - its a verifiable figure).


"Institute report - This company (MDW) is involved with a study that will inform future policy on screening for prostate cancer into a national programme. The study will take many years BUT results as they appear will be acted on earlier than the completed study. The bladder is the most likely area to develop cancer caused by radiation from X-rays ( The Lancet 2004) and ways to aviod this by new types of machinary is crucial. Any new ways to manage men with screen - detection of this disease will be supported by large sums of money."








Post an article on this thread:

Your nickname: ANV

Thanks guys some excelent information there in the two last posts, nice to see it up over 35% in the last few days aswell. Looking forward to this distribution deal coming through. Watch out for scott tod results in the morning. And please dont forget BPRG.

Its amazing I come back from spain and immediatly catch a stinker of a cold.

Will do my best to keep posting but feel rotten at the moment. My appologies for not repling to questions.

cheers GF.

Nice to see CUC making a recovery. Think its had a rough deal.

cheers GF.

Well sold what I had left of CUC, its made me a nice profit and may re- enter after the next set of results. It just doesnt seem to be able to throw off the tradgedy of losing its excelent CEO.

cheers GF.

GF, next set of figures from CUC should be March, so not long to wait. They confirm they are 'in line with expectations' and those expectations were huge. Indeed I would swear a smile escaped Amanda's lips when we tried to probe any details..... She said I shouldn't read anything into the fact she smiled when quizzed about the figures, but ...... she didn't look in the least bit worried to me.

Cheers Vasey, I havent written it off by any means, Im just getting fed up of these newspaper bods giving it mark downs.

No doubt I will be back in on next results as it was one of my top three for the year.

cheers GF.

bought patagonia gold at 16.50,when will there be more news,shares dont want move,seems like there is no trades going on,any views please.[pgd].

Bioprogress , investors keep asking me if this is fully valued. The answer as to be no.

The CEO as stated on a few occasions now that further deals are in the pipeline and that acquisitions are on the agenda.

Only until we see how the whole story pans out can we judge just how much this one is worth.

For certain it looks like one heck of a ride.

cheers GF.

A good start to the week for some of the bread and butter stocks on my list.

Armour group seems it is on a breakout and Service Power is up again.

The star of course is BPRG, come on lads release those details of the contract.

cheers GF.

Any update on IDD?

yup and sorry zscrooge for not getting back sooneer my sincere appologies.

Word is from my contact stick in and dont sell.

Good news coming up.


ITS up to you , but this snitch of mine is good.

By the way have you had a look at BPRG, plenty to go yet, plenty.

cheers GF.

Hi GF
Thanks for the BPRG recommendation but I could scream (and did watching the screen) because wasn't in a position to buy - can tomorrow, also still holding IDD so thanks for the news on that one - do you really feel it's not too late to get into BPRG?
Cheers
Anna

Anna, blimey, i thought you were in, AHGGHHHH.

No Anna the next deal is a big one, and theres more to come thats the biggy about this one, its not a one trick pony. Im now well over, well I cant find my calculator but i think I bought at 48p, dont like looking at purchase prices can effect sentiment.

Get in there and stop messing about.

cheers GF.

ps, please put your private message function on and I will send you through naughty e- mails.

Thanks GF. Not a large holding in IDD but RTD and PXC doing nicely.

GF - Thanks, got in BUT 1.47 - sob - my msg function's now on too
Cheers
Anna

Nice buys today and good consolidation.what does today's RNS mean in the scheme of things...anybody any idea's??

gmx look interesting

Just hoping for that contract news from BPRG. People keep asking is it already in the price and my answer is always no.

Well away from BPRG its not been a very good day for small caps, hope we get a better on in the morning.

cheers GF.

From lemmins Investor

Edward Kalfayan
Elric Lloyd-Langton

February 18 2004


Most of the tabloids and broadsheets mentioned BPRG today. Dealers have been expecting the next big deal, greater than the FMC announcement. This has undoubtedly fuelled the recent heady rise what we have witness last week, which continued on Monday only to pause for breath Tuesday.

Rumours and speculation is rife that a deal with one of the large pharmaceutical for BPRG`s NRobe will be announced this week. Any rumour would not be complete without a bid for the company.
IMO there is not the slightest possibility of any hostile takeover until the technology is proven on continuous production in a few sites; and there are no persistent troubles running or sealing the film. No organisation is going to risk the 300m neccessary to make an acquisition until they have the technical confidence.

It is agreed that FMC and HH did their due diligence enough to accept long term high value commitments but it is certain that they were assisted in resolving all normal doubts by plenty of varied and thorough disclosure unavailable to unwanted predators.

That gives at least six months grace. That also gives the share price plenty of time to respond to the following short term events:

The contract cementing the letter of intent due any minute
A third contract hinted at by GH
the first year results due March 8
reaction to the first in depth analyst's report
orders/contracts emanating from FMC's clients
questioning at the AGM

By that time few who know the share well, will be surprised to see a price of 3 - particularly if the company can, at any one of these opportunities, announce satisfactory production operation on a real, substantial market product introduced by Farmasierra, or an FMC client, or at Peter Black now Perrigo.

As pointed out here yesterday the resultant of the forces of greed and fear acting on the share price seems fairly constant with the share price hugging the centre trend +/- 10p, and rising an average of 6p/day . It failed to make an advance today because IMO it outran the trend, and was overbought yesterday. If demand does not deteriorate it is not inconceivable that this trend which broke out on Feb 2 could be maintained, and the 3 level achieved during the spring. That does not mean that I am forecasting that it will - just that it is not at all inconceivable. It equates to a forecast of 10m/pa profit for 2005 - on a PE of 30. For a growth rate of the kind certain to be experienced if the technology works out, that is not too fanciful a PE, and the concomittant 10m profit is well within reach for next year.

Both authors have an interest in BPRG.

A very interesting article that. Like I said yesterday I wouldnt let the day to day price bother you if it is on the downside. I notice they opened up down 1.5pence. Well done MMS, your logic takes some understanding.

cheers GF.

GF what do you think about IEN seems to be more positive than few weeks ago as
buyers return ???

Gordon will have a look.

Just opened a new position in Imagination Technologies IMG. Killik and Co have started to follow it today on a TA breakout. They say its their choice in the chip market.

cheers GF.

Just had a good look Gordon. Does look like it is getting stronger and the last trading update was very positive. Just puts me off that theres big competition in this market. Its on the good old watch list now though.

cheers GF.

GMX, 57% today. I thank you.

GF any news on servicepower soon ????

Well done Zscrooge, your wellin the dosh.

SVR, below.

Greenbaum associates to resell SERVICEPower in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland
ServicePower increases presence in German speaking countries

Stockport, UK, February 18, 2004 -- ServicePower (LSE: SVR), a global developer and supplier of workforce optimisation software for the Customer Relationship Management (CRM) market, today announced that greenbaum associates ag will distribute and support the SERVICEPower intelligent scheduler throughout German speaking countries. greenbaum associates, a Swiss management and IT services consultancy, will resell SERVICEPower in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Both ServicePower and greenbaum will continue to work with Munich based strategy consultants Barkawi Associates, announced as a ServicePower partner in 2003, who will focus their efforts on providing consultancy support services for SERVICEPower implementations in Germany.

“We are delighted that an organisation with the service experience of greenbaum has agreed to help ServicePower increase its presence in German speaking countries,” said Derek Crumpton, general manager Europe for ServicePower. “The SERVICEPower product will be tailored to meet the needs of these new markets, particularly in terms of language, and we look forward to gaining the same success in these countries as we have already experienced in the UK and U.S.”

“A number of companies in both Germany and Switzerland have expressed an interest in making their field service operations more flexible, efficient, and productive,” commented Michael Mattern, director of greenbaum. “We saw how SERVICEPower improved the productivity of service organisations in other countries and are confident we can help our clients achieve the same improvements,” he added.

About greenbaum associates

greenbaum associates are a services and solutions company based in Central Switzerland and operating throughout Europe. Committed to delivering tangible benefits, greenbaum partners with its clients to help them identify quantifiable enhancements to existing processes and applications and deliver real benefits that become visible in the client’s bottom line. Unlike other strategy and IT consulting firms, greenbaum consultants often work on the basis of clearly defined objectives and success-based fees. With deep industry expertise, a broad network of associates, and proven experience in consulting, distribution, and the deployment of software, greenbaum provide full, end-to-end business solutions. For more information, visit the Web site at: http://www.greenbaum.ch/.

cheers GF.

BPRG progressing very nicely.RNS tomorrow?????

Fingers crossed. If id doesnt come in the morning we have next week any way.

cheers GF.

Excellent post about BPRG from poorold,

very interesting three weeks.

three weeks ago, FMC was a hopeful rumor and BPRG was trading for under 70p. THREE WEEKS AGO!!!

FMC is announced. Minimum $160 million in revenues and pundits expect $800+ million over the next 8 years.

FMC spent over one year performing due diligence...and had been looking elsewhere for a solution before they stumbled on BPRG.

Quite a vote of confidence in the NRobe technology. Please do not overlook the bit about FMC having a technology that dovetails nicely with NROBE.

Now, FMC already has a blue-chip pharmaceutical clientele and will likely add to that list with NRobe.

BPRG will CLEARLY ride the coattails of FMC into FMC's GLOBAL pharmaceutical customers with their other technologies.

That, I expect, is in addition to the rumored hook-up with Bristol Myers Squibb, which seems to be different than the OTC pharma letter of intent.

Don't forget that Bristol Myers Squibb was the first global pharma named in R&D with BPRG. Four or five additional global pharma's signed up on an "un-named" basis since Bristol was named almost 2 years ago.

If the deal is with Bristol Myers Squibb, then I expect that the four or five other global pharma's are not far behind Bristol Myers Squibb.

That would be in addition to the US OTC powerhouse.

And in addition to Conva-Tec.

All in all, the investment world is about to made aware of a little company that will own a tiny fraction of all the future encapsulation revenues of every major consumer prescription and OTC medication available for the next 20-30+ years.

Microsoft and other internet companies have tried for years to come up with the internet transaction for which they charge a fraction of a pence for each of the billions and billions of transactions. That is the golden goose for them.

Well, BPRG is about to do just that in a market that is even larger!

London Evening Standard page 48 - Market Report Friday 20th February...

"Bioprogress put on 4p to a record 159p. Dealers say the rise is being fuelled by talk of a tie-up with US drugs group Bristol-Myers Squibb."

Armour Group are the featured Stockwatch share in Saturday's Times."well placed to take advantage of the ban on using mobile phones while driving....the shares have been rising steadily since June of last year, when it put out a trading statement predicting takings well ahead of expectations". Good bit of coverage for a good share.

Not been a good day for the small caps guys, tuesday should be better.

cheers GF.

Well how wrong could I get it another rotten day but dont feel theres any need to panic.

Heres just a couple of Pro thoughts on the present situation, firstly from brokers Killik who didnt get this out until lunchtime............

The NASDAQ suffered another pull back last night, worth around 1.5%. The
retrenchment from the highs is now worth around 10% but follows a virtual doubling
over the past year. Arguably, many of the leading index players have got in front of
themselves on valuation grounds until further evidence can be attached to the strength
of the pick up in corporate information technology spend. Some profit taking at this
juncture seems only appropriate.
But the bigger story appears to be some rolling over of US indices which have set the
pace over the past few months – can Europe decouple and tread its own path?
Yesterday, good corporate data and takeover speculation kept the markets in positive
territory although, by the end, these were being trimmed. This morning’s results are
showing the effects of the dollar on UK profitability, disguising generally good
underlying figures.

And from The Frequenttrader Robbie Burns....

A bit of a down day for small cap stocks today though seems like markdowns rather than any real selling. Bovis Homes has now shot higher and is giving me some nice spread bet profits.

The US indicies werent at all that bad at the close and in after hours, and I really do feel that we are probably at the base of the recent down turn.

cheers GF.

Just hoping in the week to come we have seen the back of the US pull back, on friday we saw the Naz drop for the 6 th week in a row.

Anyway my shopping trip on weds and thurs is already starting to pay dividends.

The only minus are gold stocks that seem to be taking a breather, but still feel they will be a lot higher come September than what they are now.

cheers Gf.

AFE has gone backwards since I bought it---anyone got any comments to cheer me up?

Hi moneyplus , looks like all gold stocks are taking a big breather. Please remember by their nature explorers are always going to be lonfg term investments. having said that we may get a farm out deal with a big north American major before the end of the month, fingers crossed.

cheers GF.

Just opened a new position In Sanctuary Group SGP, I think this article fron Citywire best somes up my reasons but I have been searching for value for about a week now and this one comes out way at the top for me.

Stick takes Sanctuary

Published: 11:10 Sun 29 Feb 2004

By Richard Lander, Editorial Director
Email to a friend

Sanctuary's recent results suggested management stand a good chance of making a success of its planned acquisition spree and one shrewd investor has backed the strategy with share purchases.

Rathbone's star manager Carl Stick picked up 200,000 shares in the expansive music group shortly after its full year results in which it told investors it foresaw a short period of 'unprecedented' acquisition opportunities.

Stick's Rathbone Special Situations Rathbone Special Situations unit trust now owns 2 million shares or 0.6% of the 174 million group (SGP).


Sanctuary has already proved itself adept at buying up the rights to catalogues of music and juicing value out of the assets.


The company began life as the management company for British heavy metallers Iron Maiden. However, it has built itself into an industry powerhouse buy both buy music rights as well as offering a home to disaffected musicians.


The company has built a 30 million war chest to fund acquisitions through the issue of issuing loan notes last September.


It recently picked up reggae label Creole records and it has three to four other acquisitions in its sights.


Sanctuary's existing business has been enjoying some noteworthy successes and recently achieved its first ever UK number one single.


It has also recently set up an urban music arm with the acquisition of Music World Entertainment which manages big name artists including Beyoncand Kelly Rowland's.


At the current price of 52.5p the shares are valued at 12.4 times earnings forecast for the year to the end of September and 11.2 times expectations for the year after.

The shares look attractive at this level especially if management have got it right about acquisition opportunities.ENDS.

Looks a good one to me , been searching for value for about a week now and this easily comes out on top. Well worth a punt I think, but please DYOR and remember you are responsible for the timing of buying and selling of shares.

cheers GF.

Opened a new position in CMS WEBVIEW CWV. The article below describes why I have opened the position. Havent seen Joanne Wallen so keen for a long time.

Citywire Tip: exchange is no robbery at CMS Webview
Published: 07:24 Tue 2 March 2004
By Joanne Wallen, Associate Editor
Email to a friend | Printable Version


CMS Webview is a rare breed of company these days, it is a tech company valued currently at 9 million but which should be poised for bigger things and which has attracted an AAA-rated fund manager into its recent placing.

The company originally spun out of the Liffe commodities exchange in 1982 and, following a management buyout in 1997 floated on AIM in 2000.


Unlike so many dotcom companies, CMS Webview (CWV) raised only 2.5 million, which enabled it to fulfil its initial vision of developing software to collect data from multiple feeds, aggregate it, put it into a common format and send it out in real time to end users.


Due to its heritage, the initial targets for this software were commodities exchanges, and, one of the key reasons that the company was able to go back to the market in December and raise a further 2.5 million, was the fact that it now counts the London Metals Exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade as customers.


That a twenty-man band from London won the business of two of the major exchanges in Chicago clearly speaks for the quality of the software and the industry experience of the team.


One shrewd investor who thought it worth taking a stake at the recent placing was AAA-rated Giles Hargreave, who picked up 1.9 million shares for his Marlborough Special Situations fund. The placing of 25 million shares was at 10p, and shares are currently around 12p, valuing the business at just under 10 million.


Having bedded down these three major exchange customers, CMS is now ready to ramp up its sales effort. To date it has been doing what chief executive Bob Antell calls 'serial' selling, essentially selling one system a year.


However, now that the software is installed and proven in these three major customers, the company is ready to gear up its sales efforts to increase the volume of sales to several a year. It will fund this out of the new money raised.


There are some 200 exchanges in the world, of which 120 are potential targets for CMS' software, known as TDI. The company started selling to exchanges because this is its direct area of expertise. However it is also looking to target the banks, brokerages and quote vendors that are members of the exchanges.


Sales of the software are large ticket items, with an average sale price of around 750,000 for an exchange.


However the software is pretty generic, and, further down the line CMS will explore other vertical markets for the software such as betting, airline ticketing or any other service that takes in data from many sources and requires real time information out. It intends to exploit other markets through partnerships with vertical market specialists. However Antell stressed that this was for further down the line. (continued...)

The company also has two other revenue streams. It uses TDI itself to offer a consolidated digital data feed service to customers such as quote terminal vendors, banks and brokers. CMS has a fully equipped data communications suite in East London, from which, using TDI software, it can collate data from many sources on behalf of its customers and push that data out to them as a single, consolidated feed in real time. So far it has 11 quote terminal vendors as customers, and has not yet gone out to sell to the banks.


Finally, CMS has the exclusive European distribution rights to a data terminal called ProphetX, which competes with the likes of Reuters providing data on the commodities and energy markets. To date the company has twenty corporate customers, some of which take ProphetX as a backup to an existing system and others which have replaced existing, and usually more expensive systems.


Terminals sell for around 200 a month, and Antell says the business is profitable and generates cash. Digital data feed customers pay around 20-25,000 a year.


At present, TDI is the biggest part of the business, but Antell can foresee a time when CMS could have three separate business divisions, each making a major contribution.


In the six months to June, the company turned over 905,000, up 55% on the previous year Losses were reduced by 66% to 116,000.


House broker Corporate Synergy reckons the company is 'set for rapid growth and profits in 2004/5. It is looking for turnover of 3.6 million, profits of 300,000 and earnings per share of 0.3p this year rising to 6.4 million of turnover, 2.4 million of profit and 3p per share next year. The broker has a target price of 18p for the shares.


Full year results are due next month.


Citywire Verdict:


A tiny company with such blue chip customers is a rare find. CMS has survived the horrendous market conditions since it floated, and really does now look poised for bigger and better things.


It has proven software in at three highly impressive reference sites and is opening offices in Chicago to exploit the strong references in that city. (continued...)

There are then two other viable sources of revenue which should help smooth out the lumps from selling high value software licences.


At this price shares are trading on just 4 times next year's forecast earnings. Even allowing for some slippage in revenues, this share looks just about as cheap as they get at this time.


Yes it is a tech stock, yes there are still risks, but there could easily be some serious upside here. Buy.

cheers GF.

Pretty poor day so far for small caps but never mind CWV is doing just fine. Added twice again this morning as I see these as really fantastic value with a forward p/e of 4.

cheers Gf.

Gf did you notice that Bond Int.(BDI) put out results & news of an aquisition lateish yesterday? They were optimistic but seemed to get lost on a busy day. They could be worth a look. I rang them up today & they were also surprised at the lack of interest. (50.5p no change)

Noticed u sold avocet goldfinger. I'm still holding onto them. Do you have any reasons for selling?
Some of your tips at start of year have been really bad, avocet (like me), bema gold, incite and zoo. i aint looked at some of the others but i have tracked gold shares a lot in last 6 months. Must admit, these have been rubbish for me too. Small caps mainly though shares that i've invested in elsewhwere have have been excellent though to make including pipex.

Hi Scotinvestor nice to speak to you again, yup golds gone right off the radar.

Reason I sold AVM was that I bought the last tranche at 71p and we have seen it really fall with others, dont forget the EC will probably cut interest rates tomorrow or is it the day after and that will certainly make the dollar a stronger buy for currency merchants. Im still going to hold Bema whatever happens as I think this will be a giant in 10 years time.

good luck, and please keep in touch.

cheers gf.

gf what are your thoughts on african eagle,short term and longterm

Positive roy, very positive. Ok we have seen it fall back a little over the last couple of weeks but in the long term it is still possible I hear that Goldfields may re -open talks with the company, failing that there are at least two other companies who are interested in forming a partnership.

I also feel that POG will again rise to new highs going on for early summer, when the bout of uk and EEC interest rate increases have stabalised.

cheers GF.

thanks gf

gf what are your thoughts on ivs,seems to be a lot of action going on today,results due on 10th march.

A really quite morning obviously people areawaiting the employment data news fronm the US due out at I believe 1pm here.

cheers GF.

tshires, no present position on ivs although I have heard some good news on D Smith re- to aquisition. Now might be the time to get into paper before the herd. Think Evil K is doing just that.

Text from IC:

Like rival Armour Trust, Centurion is booming, thanks to the craze for in-car DVD players, which keep kids and in-laws entertained during car journeys. But the company's spectacular 2002-03 results and this year's bumper expectations have been clouded by the sudden death in late January of founder, chairman, chief executive and 46 per cent shareholder Steven Cunningham, aged 36, in a road crash.

Up until now, some 80 per cent of Centurion's turnover has come from its 'Plug & Play' boxed kits, which have velcrose or suction-backed screens. In the 12 months to end-July 2003, the number of in-car vision units sold via retail outlets such as Halfords, Argos and over 400 car dealerships, almost doubled. Since September, Centurion has introduced a cheaper Plug & Play product and a thin roof-mounted screen. So, not surprisingly, motor manufacturers are now starting to fit DVD screens as optional extras.

By far the most significant customer to date for such products is Toyota, which signed a pan-European deal that could see in-car vision units fitted in eight new models over the next three years. The first contract for the Toyota Avensis consists of a twin-screen system (with screens in both headrests), a DVD player in the car boot and games-compatible sockets for a PlayStation.

Last April, Centurion signed a contract to supply the 2003 Nissan Micra with an in-car DVD system available via its 229 UK dealerships. Similar agreements have been signed with Mazda, Kia and Fiat. Not surprisingly, Centurion believes that original equipment sales could rise from 20 to 30 per cent this year. As a result, its share price has been climbing.

Company broker Charles Stanley reckons that turnover this year will more than double to 12.92m as profits jump to 2.08m and earnings to 6.3p. A dividend of 1.1p is also forecast.

Gold will go up when terrorism increases -- and it will increase.
rgds aj

thanks for the reply gf

Wow what a finish to the week, Caldwell Investments come up trumps..........

LONDON (AFX) - Caldwell Investments PLC said it has been granted a patent in
the US for its Ninaclip product.
This is in addition to the 58 NinaSun/Ninaclip patents, trade marks and
registered designs already granted in relevant countries, the company said.
It added that PCT patent applications are still being processed covering 123
countries.
bam
cheers GF.

up 34% at the moment.

gf interesting post that gives us all something to look at ans see how others work...nice to see and also glad to see some of mine here.all the best and thanks for the insight

Thanks for that KA, please stay in touch.

cheers Gf.

GF,

Looks like you mis-timed your Avocet sale, price has been rising since!

I have a lot of faith in them, and feel they will come good later this year, once production problems in Tajikistan have been sorted out, and possibly additional assets confirmed at Penjom.

Could be right there Andy, you've got to remember though I have been in them since the Bear market at 19p and had tranches all the way up. Still hold a few and needed some beer money for the weekend lol.

Have to say I got spooked a little when I saw them go under 60p and felt that increasing interest rates especially the EC ones were going up on Friday, DRAT they kept them on hold. The dollar has started to strengthen aswell, its just one of those things, you have to take a kick in the teeth now and again and forget your ego. I see EV Bee Greg have a round a quid target on them so theres still time to pick up a few more, or will I go for Medoro Gold, watch this one very closely looks like a massive seller is nearly out and they should be at least 65p and thats before even a BUY note goes on them. If you want more on this one let me know and I will PM you the details someone sent me.

Good luck and have a nice weekend.

cheers GF.

GF are you interested in NMS? A lot of buying going on and a friend in the City thinks a bid might be coming. Even without it has good investments and a lot of cash!

Without looking up the code that must be New Media Spark??????????????.

Blimey MP, is that one still going after the dot com crash.

Mind must have bags of money as in them days I remember it being an investment company/incubator releasing would be cos onto the market.

Might be a little too speculative for me , but certainly will have a look if its got loads of cash.

cheers GF.

GF,

Thanks for that, yes please PM the Medoro information, and thanks in advance for that.

I found an article on Medoro that you may or may not have seen;

http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2004/mar-2004/medoro050304.htm

Once again, thanks, and let's see what this week brings for AVM.

Andy, thanks for that will have a look, the PM is on its way.

cheers GF.

Hello goldfinger

I am just getting used to the boards and branching out from those concerned with my own shares.

I am also learning the hard way as I have only really bee an active investro fro about a 12 month. Sold too early on both RTD and PDX

I am currently invested in Cybit holding (CYH) and Debt Free Direct (DFD)

I have seen DFD increase a fair bit. However I bought in to CYH at what then became their 12 month peak of 4p+ peak expecting substantial short term gains. This was on their aquisition history and nes of new contracts.

The newsflow has remained positive and Atemis fund has purchased a 10% stake in the company. Despite this the price remains at 2.8 - 3p.

Would you be able to give me your thoughts on the stock and why positive newflow does not seem to be being reflected in share price increases

PC, sorry but dont have a specific idea on that one stock. I always felt that market place had too much competition so I keep out.

My aim in ivesting is always try to find monopoly stocks where they have signed up legal agreements to stop the competitors getting in.

I know these days it gets harder and harder but you may be able to even find these on the London stock exchange, eg, GBG group still worth a punt, Sage, now overbought, BPRG long term, Stanley Gibbons - no special excitement but then again a solid stock and defensive stock.

Look for market monopoly stocks and keep well away from the software stocks we see banded about day by day on the b/bs, remember this they are ten a penny and can quite easily change from one business to another. If you do go for software try and make sure you know the competition.

cheers GF.

GF,

Thanks for the mail, very interesting!

Good morning GF todays IDD RNS
good news surely ??

Thanks goldfinger - nice to have a bit of experienced insight

IDD seems to be doing well over the last few days pity the general market is having a stinker.

Couldnt beleive my eyes when I looked at some of the drops today, been out on business all yesterday and today and got a real shock.

Still it would be really boring if we just went up in a straight line. A market like this sorts the men out from the boys lol.

Good luck.

cheers GF.

Cheers GF, and good morning to you

Lots of 'ifs' in IDD (I'm in)

check the price on CDW today the cows have come in 50p only few days ago
my first 6 bagger

GF,

Didn't you have an interest in OST?

I seem to recall last year talking about it (in at .6p). Todays AGM statement really outlines the future for me - the movement of Alan Watkins (ex CISCO UK MD) from non exec to Chairman is a key move IMO.

Talks with Vodafone also sound promising.

Along with CWV this is my pick for 2004.

HKF.

GF,
Do you have an opinion on CRB?
BA.

GF any idea on the CDW move ?

I think it could be tipped soon !!!!

Caldwell Investments, brilliant. It was Evil K who contacted me on these and the revolutionary clip, mind at the time I thought he had one too many. But then looking into it I thought perhaps he has got one hear, remember it is always the simple things in life that bring in the money. Bit like me.

Now up cica of 80% since I brought it to the boards attention, beats the 3% you get in a good banks savings account, mind as I say I deserve it on this one as I had so many PMs from investors questioning my thoughts on this one when I brought out my original list above.

Please stick with me this week a lot of business on. Buying up an old mill at the side of the canal in west yorkshire and turning it into luxury flats etc, etc. Thats the best part of living in a dump like this , there so many property opportunities you southerns only dream about. Not only that theres loads of them. Great stuff.

You will notice Im on a bit of an upper after my contract deal today, my appologies.

Anywat another bummer day in generalalthough when I looked at lunch time BPRG and PTL were heading in the right direction.

On a general note I would advise investors to certainly get some Oil exposure ( should have said this 6 weeks back). I have to say this area as been a complete flop for me in the last 21 years, so Im going to ring one of my city top nobs up in the morning and ask for some advice. Somehow oil and me dont go together unless its been embrasing chips.

Good luck for the rest of the week but I think its gong to be tough.

cheers GF.

Goldfinger,

JKX looks a good one to me, it's now my largest holding after a further purchase yesterday! Results are out on Wednesday. Technically, it has solid support just above 60p and no real resistance until 1.00.

At 70p it's a fairly safe buy and I'll leave you to check out the excellent fundamentals!

Another good one is Sibir Energy (SB), it's in a tight trading range at the moment (25p-30p), but news over the next couple of months should help it break out to the upside. If you want, I'll send you a very encouraging brokers note from Canaccord (18 pages) which came out on Tuesday.

The summary of which is posted below:

09 March 2004 09:25
Subject: Sibir Energy ; Recommendation: Speculative Buy

Sibir Energy (SBE : LN : 27.5p : Speculative Buy)

The Moscow Oil & Gas Company is a cornerstone of Sibir's future - MOGC is
owned by Sibir (45%), and the Central Fuel Company of Moscow (55%), which
itself is wholly owned by the City of Moscow. MOGC has upstream reserves of
668 mmbbls, and a 38% interest in the Moscow oil refinery and distribution
network, making it a powerful new integrated company. Crucially, MOGC has
the right to provide 50% of the refinery's crude, enabling it to act as
principal in the refining process. MOGC should provide Sibir with around
$55 million pre tax cashflow per annum soon, although conditions this year
are expected to result in pre-tax cashflow closer to $35 million.

Shell JV for the Salym development is moving forward - The commitment by
Shell to develop the Salym oilfields has been an important boost for Sibir.
Initial development drilling by Shell is anticipated on West Salym in Spring
2004, with full-scale development drilling from 2005 onwards. The pipeline
infrastructure will be completed in 2005 with first oil by Q3 2005. Sibir is
effectively carried by Shell until mid 2004.

Upstream production is growing rapidly - The historic core production from
the Magma fields of around 5,000 boepd, combined with the development by
Shell of the Salym fields (Sibir 41%) should see average production rates
climb to over 40,000 boepd net to Sibir by 2007

The interest in the Moscow oil refinery and retail network has increased our
valuation for Sibir by 30% to nearly 36p/share - Sibir is trading at only
77% of our 'fair value' of 35.8p/share. However, until certain milestones
are achieved - the start of drilling on Salym, the finalisation of financing
for Sibir's obligations on Salym, and the demonstration of cashflows from
MOGC - we believe that a discounted target price of 29p/share is
appropriate. Consequently we recommend the stock as a SPECULATIVE BUY.

I'm also in two more Oil plays which are a little more speculative, but could turn out to be undiscovered gems!

They are Melrose Resources (MRS) and Sterling Energy (SEY)

Regs,

Mike (SB)

Hi gf whereabouts are you in west yorkshire ? Batley/ Dewsbury, if so might pop in.

Sigora, all over depends which office Im working at.

SB, like your Oil tips, but am more inclined to have a punt on Sondex an industry service group. Their technology helps firms wring the last few drops of oil out of the mature wells and in these days of high prices I just have a feeling this one might be a winner.

cheers GF.

Well glad this week is over. Seems to me that the newbies to this business have taken a hiding and may have learnt a valuable lesson, DONT PANIC.

The stock market is a cyclical beast by nature and nothing at the moment stands out and says to me we arent still in a Bull market. I havent sold any shares this week, I beleive in the reasons why I first purchased them, ie, solid sound growth businesses. If anything I would be buying rather than selling, but my liquidity is coming under pressure from a couple of bricks and motar businesses I am investing in.

I am sure we will see stocks back up again as we march onto spring and summer.

Please have a good weekend.

cheers GF.

GF if you are ever in our nieghbourhood, pop in for a bite the wife is an excellent cook.

Sigora--why aren't you an excellent cook?? equal rights these days you know.
ps. who else is invited- some of could do with a free meal after last week.

Moneyplus my doors are always open, pop in whenever, the missus has banned me from the kitchen, said something to the effect as much good as a choclate fireguard nuff said.

Cheers Sigora-MP

Hi GF:
I have come across this from Trendwatch.I have never bought shares before and as you know am mainly a s.bet and Index person -but want to try other things aswell.
Can you give me "idiots Guide" as to how i go about buying this share.

The Select Media Group (TSMG) -they plan an AIm float in late may or june this year.The shares are selling at present around 67p and proposals are that the TSMG will list on the AIM at a multiple of this price.

My questions are:
How and where can i buy these shares NOW. and who should i use.
What is the normal buying size usually.(max/min)

Sorry to ask such dumb questions but am sure u will help.

rgds
zarif

Zarif, if you really want them now, not in a week's time the simplest thing is to see if your bank has a share dealing service. Some have no t cheap commissions, others better but you probably won't get too close to some of the on-line commission rates. Otherwise set up an on-line broker.

Oh and btw make sure they can deal in this stock as it sounds like ofex and you may find some brokers won't deal in ofex shares.

Cheers SC, really helps out and Im glad you can give that excellent advise.

At the moment I am getting 0ver 300 e- mails a day on the subject of shares not just from this sitebut from others.

Please remember I am not FSA registered and then have no right other than posting my own thoughts on the shares I have brought to the attention of the board. Having said that Im not trying to get out of giving my view. Please remember mny list is a diary of events but I will be pleased to help anyone out with general enquiries as long as some dont get silly and spoilt it for the rest.

Cheers GF.

Zarif
TSMG They had a presentation via the guild of shareholders(Tom Benyon)on the 9th Feb at which they sought a further 200,000 of funding at which stage the busines was valued at 3m. As far as I am aware all the equity offered was snapped up.Following from here they intend to list on the Aim market as you have seen on trendwatch site. For more information go to www.guild.org.uk
On a more personal note and without prejudice I attended the presentation and although initialy sceptical of the product was hugely impressed.The management enthusiasm was extremely convincing and I have taken a punt.
If you want chapter and verse let me know otherwise go to the meeting at the RAC club on the 29th.

Many thanks philj66 -I have sent u and internal mail.

rgds
zarif

Not a bad day at all today though I guess a lot would argue against that. Caldwell Investments up another 10% and I bought in at 18p well over bagger status.

Telspec the only one really holding me back but never mind as I see this as a long term value stock.

Looking forward to the budget on wednesday, lets hope our Gordon as some goodies awaiting investors and small business.

cheers GF.

philj66:
i sent u an email via mam -did you recieve it?

rgds
zarif

GF
Did you see the update on PTL? I finaly dipped a toe in on Friday at 1.21 and felt a little foolish as they went down to 117 but todays news has perked me up no end. Thanks

Yes good news Phil. Caldwell investments is up another 13% aswell. Looks like a bad day though so far for small caps.

cheers GF.

GF

did you have a HCEG thread going or was it cancelled when you closed 2003
stock picks


thanks cath.

Cath the thread should be still going I will try and bring it back up.

Good luck cheers GF.

ps, only last weekend Michael Walters put out a very bullish note on these on his web site.

Flaming heck GF, Michael Walters. What the hell does he know!

I take it your not a fan catch22. He does have a lot of supporters and his B/Board is visited by some very high players in this business. Must admit I dont like everything he says but I think he as got it right with HCEG.

cheers GF.

goldfinger,

AVM on the move again, and gold is having a seriously good day, might be worth considering AVM again now?

Hi Andy yup I think your right there just take a look at my biggest gold holding Bema and how that one is speeding along.

cheers GF.

ps, by the way Money box floated today and was down 1p at lunch time. Might be worth keeping an eye on.

Will be hoping that the US have captured Bin Ladens second in charge by the time the US markets open tomorrow, that should provide some much needed inspiration.

cheers GF.

Goldfinger,

I'm thinking they MAY have OBl himself!

Maybe they're playing it down just in case he slips the net again?
After all, the area is 10 square miles of mountainous terrain.

I just have a hunch it's him, and not a minion.

If it IS him, the market will rocket tomorrow, IMHO.

That would be superb Andy, better taken alive.

cheers GF

goldfinger,

I sincerely doubt that will happen!

I would imagine he has given those closest to him instructions to kill him if the US get too close, or we may just use one of those bombs that sucks the air out of caves.

I cannot imagine he would want to be taken alive.

gf

See you are burning the midnight oil!

Talking of oil, check out burren energy. Share price 203p, estimated NAV's range from 226 to 300p and this excludes their vast gas reserves. Oil prices still rising to highs only reached at the start of the Iraqi war, and US stocks are severely depleted. China and India now big gas guzzlers too. Burrens production figures are also soaring.

Regards

gallick,

good call, burren look interesting IMHO, and I plan to take a closer look.

Me too gallick cheers. Glad you didnt get burnt on BPRG.

many thanks gf.

guys,

picked this up over the road, and doesn't augur well, IF it's true of course, and it may well be!
-------------------------------------------------

KABUL (AFX) - Al-Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri are
safe and "on this side of the border", an Afghanistan-based Taliban spokesman
said.

Speaking by satellite phone from southern Afghanistan, Abdul Samad dismissed
speculation by Pakistani officials that Al-Zawahiri could be surrounded in the
Pakistan border region, saying he was "100 per cent" sure the Al-Qaeda number
two was safe.

"All these reports about Ayman Al-Zawahiri being surrounded in Pakistan are
not true, they are just propaganda by the US coalition and by the Pakistani army to weaken Taliban morale," he said.

"They are all safe and they are on this side of the border," Samad said of
the top Al-Qaeda leadership.
wm/mfc/bc/jah/jlw

Pity.

gf.

GF now out of CDW any ideas hoping to make some profits on IEN next week
with results due 23/3 just bought some more I'm hoping for 15p next week

Opened a new position in a mobile phone content provider 2 ERGO RGO.

Raking in revenues of 750k per month and is very profitable. Expanding into the US.

Came through the dot com boom unscathed.

Has unique features on its platform that make it stand out from the crowd, micro payments over the waves and also a system which is live that gives on revenues generated from clients. Also as all the usual services eg, ring tones text messages, games etc.

Looking to become the market leader.

cheers GF.

ps, full write up to come.

COMPANIES UK: Cash cows with customers that demand instant money
By David Blackwell
Financial Times; Mar 22, 2004

The mercurial and impecunious Mr Micawber advised young David Copperfield to avoid overspending. "Annual income 20, annual expenditure 19 19/6d, result happiness. Annual income 20, annual expenditure 20 0/6d, result misery."
However, the rising level of consumer debt suggests that the warnings embodied by Dickens in the character of Mr Micawber are fading from the national consciousness. It is easy enough to imagine Mr Micawber blithely ignoring his own advice and heading for the nearest cash machine.

The convenience of the ATM, or automated teller machine, cannot be denied. It is harder to explain the willingness of consumers to pay 1.50 to obtain 40 in crisp notes, especially when the banks came under fire a few years ago for daring to charge customers using machines in branches to get at their own money.

But the market has changed - and instant cash is particularly attractive to young males. Customers are queuing up to be charged for the privilege, and the companies that supply the ATMs are queuing up to join Aim.

Moneybox last week became the latest, demerging from Ambient and raising 21.8m. With a market capitalisation just over 100m, it is the biggest of three ATM companies on the junior market.

The others are Scott Tod and Cardpoint. Scott Tod, which reversed into an Aim cash shell in December, said last month it was expecting to double its business in the second half. Cardpoint floated on Aim less than two years ago with 188 machines - it now has more than 2,000 and last week moved into the German market.

The market they are attacking, which is also served by several private companies, is growing rapidly. According to the Association of Payment and Clearing Systems (Apacs) more than half the cash in circulation in the UK was taken from ATMs in 2002.

Fewer workers are being paid in cash, and people prefer using machines to cashing cheques or waiting at bank counters. Even state benefits are increasingly paid into bank accounts. Apacs is forecasting that by 2012, 74 per cent of the UK's cash will be delivered by machines.

Moneybox, which last year added 1,000 machines, taking its total to 2,471, is aiming for sites with a high footfall, including retail centres, entertainment complexes, leisure centres and transport halts such as stations and motorway services. It claims to have a 16 per cent share of the UK's total of almost 50,000 ATMs, giving it a 26 per cent share of the transactions.

Most of its revenues come from the fees generated every time a customer takes cash from a machine. But in addition Moneybox runs ATMs for other financial services companies, including Bradford & Bingley. It has also used some of the proceeds from the float to buy G2, the payment purchasing business that converts cash on to vending cards for use in offices and other closed environments.

Moneybox made an operating profit on its UK operations of 2m on turnover of 27.6m in the 11 months to December 31. But that was more than offset by losses on its operations in Germany and the Netherlands, where it has 178 and 165 machines respectively.

Cardpoint has also turned to Germany for growth. It expects the German market, which has a different pricing structure, to have more potential than the UK.

It will take some doing to move as quickly as it has in the UK. The shares were 43p on flotation in June 2002 and declined as the company made its first acquisition. But after a placing and open offer at 53p for the second acquisition last May, the shares accelerated.

The company broke even for the year to September, and profits of 2.4m are forecast this year as sales rise from 12.2m to 32m. News of a two-year contract with Thresher, the drinks retailer, was followed in January by a five-year deal with Welcome Break, the UK service station operator. The market capitalisation has jumped from 8m to 43m.

Shares in Scott Tod were 25p when the company raised 2.5m at the time of the reverse. Since then they have risen to 54p, reflecting the effect of moving what was an obscure private company in South Wales into the limelight of a listing.

The company has won a contract to supply its automated teller machines to Mitchells & Butlers, which has 1,600 pubs.

It also won a deal to install 500 ATMs at another large pub chain through a joint venture with Leisure Link Electronic Entertainment, a private company that supplies gaming machines to the UK pub industry. Its machines can also be found in Young's, Fullers, Barracuda and Luminar outlets.

At the moment there is plenty of room for expansion as independent ATMs increase their share of the market, which is still tiny compared with the use of the machines provided by banks and building societies.

And as the number of prime sites starts to dwindle, the listed companies are in pole position to consolidate the industry if - as Mr Micawber liked to say - anything turns up.

cheers GF.

Nice one gf but a little short (no pun intended) on where the smart money is going. I know you are hot on Scot Tod but perhaps we should be hot on the whole sector before saturation arrives (or as Jim Morrison said... before the whole shithouse goes up in flames).

I know you sold out of cashpoint, and the whole area is starting to get a little crowded with moneybox just arrived, but maybe the whole area needs milking perhaps for another 3 to 6 months!? What's your call gf (I promise I won't come looking for you)!!??

Regards
gk

I gallick, Im convinced these markets are for stock pickers rather than sector pickers. Please see my point on the SCD thread.

cheers GF.

ps in general, by the way its best to stay in bed on days like today and yesterday. You just cant beat the market and plenty of people have e-mailed me and asked "should I sell" the answer there as to be no if you still beleive in the original reason why you bought the company in the first place.

I still havent sold one stock over the last 2 weeks, in Bull markets and Bear markets you do get corrections. At the moment yes it is a geopolitical spike down, but I feel things will get better.

Ive taken the opportunity to go out fishing over the last 2 days and beleive me it blows the cobwebs away. Think it will be similar in the morning.

Sometimes it pays to take a break away from the markets and just forget about them as long as you have stop losses in place. They can be bad for your health and thats the truth.

Good luck to everyone.

cheers GF.

Well everything up today for me although only small increases.

Bring on the new reporting season in the US I say and lets get back to business rather than boring politics.

cheers Gf.

Heres an interesting article from one of the more respected Fund managers.

We're in a bull phase, says Buxton

Published: 13:49 Thr 25 March 2004

By Laurence Fletcher, Funds Correspondent
Email to a friend


Schroder's star fund manager Richard Buxton argues the stockmarket is still in a bull phase, and warns it is far too early to be thinking about getting defensive.

Buxton, who runs the 420 million Schroder UK Alpha Plus fund, remains positive on earnings prospects, even though the FTSE 100 has this month dropped from more than 4,550 to just over 4,350.


Speaking before today's rally which looks set to end a three-day losing streak in the index, Buxton told Citywire: 'I'm very relaxed about what has happened. The last 12 months have been technically unusual in having only two negative months in the market. It was feeling a bit tired and we were approaching a newsflow vacuum. Whether we drift a bit lower over the coming weeks, I wouldn't be surprised.


He added: 'It's far too early to be getting more wholesale defensive and nervous. Lots of people are moving much more defensive. [But] we're very early in the corporate profits upswing. Inevitably analysts will lag in the degree to which profits are improving.'


However, whilst Buxton believes we are currently in a 'bull phase', he would not term this a full-scale bull market.


He said: 'We're in a decade of very, very modest returns. It will comprise lots of bull and bear phases. We're still in a bull phase, although it's not an out and out 80's or 90's bull market.'


Buxton has in recent months allowed cash to build up in his fund, but very recently he has gone back into the market.


He said: 'It's the right time - we're using this kind of correction to put money in.'


Buxton has recently added to his holding in Abbey (ANL), which he says is a 'very unique situation'; and, following the pullback of the past month, United Business Media (UBM) and mining stocks.

Elsewhere, he has added to his position in engineer Cookson (CKSN), and bought into aerospace group Smiths (SMIN). However, he has sold out of BG (BG.) and Imperial Tobacco (IMT).


Since launch in the summer of 2002 the Schroder UK Alpha Plus fund has risen 37.3%. The FTSE 100 has grown just 4.5%, whilst the average fund in the UK All Companies sector has delivered 4.9% over that period.


cheers GF,

Well a big riser first one in 11 working days, Mediwatch now up nearlly 23% and still rising. Just cant find why. Anyone have ant clue????????.

cheers GF.

Hi goldfinger,

Thanks for very interesting article written by Robert Fletcher.
However,do you not think the overriding situation is terrorism?I think the U.K.
will suffer a major terrorist attack on a soft target within the next couple
of months.This is one of the main reasons my FTSE target is very low as I
believe the financial markets will be effected in a very negative way.

Any opinions ?
rgds aj

It is possible ajren that the world in the years to come gets so used to these terror attacks that the indicies wont be affected, that is what really worries me.

cheers Gf.

You could be right.Chilling thought.You know I live in Spain.Every night Spanish
t.v.shows very graphic pictures of Madrid and interviews a victims family member.This brings home the human element and makes everything especially sad.
rgds aj

Still holding all my Datacash and Armour, love the rollout potential of Datacash and think the institutions still very keen on Armour Group.

Tend to agree there hawick. Datacash in paticular is a world leader in its field.

cheers GF.

Opened two new postions today on the back of the economic boom in China and resurging Japanese economy. Was afraid that China was overheating and that inflation might kick in but two reports this weekend one in the FT have set my mind at rest.
The first is Zincox ZOX, and the second is a coal miner who export to this part of the world the coking coal they require for the building of the infrastructure, Anglo Pacific,APF. Coal prices are going up around the world (the new black gold)and this weekend I have carried out a search of all the coal miners here.

Uk Coal looked good on the exterior until I had found out that all its coal as been sold for this year and half of next year at yes you guessed a lower fixed price already agreed it does however have a lot of property ant that alone with NAV is just below the market price. BHP Billiton looks to be really booming but the market cap put me off and Bisichi is too small an operator and mines in South Africa.

Heres an excelent broker note albeit a month old thats certainly worth reading. Interesting point about nickel, in short supply for 2 years. Guess whats floating on wednesday and is near to bringing the stuff out of the ground on a commercial basis.

http://www.minesite.com/archives/brokers_archive/2004/feb-2004/paterson260204.htm

cheers GF

Brokers note from above opened out.

cheers GF.

Brokers Crumbs

Date: February 26, 2004



Aussie Broker Patersons Produces Some Interesting Recommendations In Its Latest Resources Review.

A most interesting tome has just dropped on Minews’ desk from Patersons in Australia. It is the brokers’ Resources Review dated February 2004 so is bang up to date. Even so metal prices are moving around so fast that it is difficult to produce a 113 page booklet which is right on the button. In general terms, however, Patersons see nickel and gold as early industrial production cycle plays; copper , lead and other precious metals apart from gold are mid-cycle commodities; and zinc and alumiunium are late cycle participants. Copper, lead, silver and platinum have certainly been on the move, but the brokers think they may have further to go and are definite bulls of zinc.

Patersons’ analysts envisage substantial upside in the zinc price and point to new galvanising lines which are being commissioned in China as industrial production continues to gather pace. They admit that official inventories are still pretty high at around 700,000 tonnes, but expect a rapid drawdown of this due to the lack of intermediate products. Such a view is very much in line with that of Andrew Woollett, managing director of AIM listed ZincOx who reckons that the price will really take off once inventories fall below 630,000 tonnes, but the present price of US$1250/tonne is well ahead of the US$745/tonne of a year ago. Lead has also performed well and this is seen as an added positive for zinc producers as it is frequently a by-product credit.

The list of preferred zinc stocks includes Perilya, with its strong balance sheet and undervalued exploration and project development portfolio, and CBH Resources which used to be known as Consolidated Broken Hill. Patersons duly admit to being lead manager to Perilya’s placement back in July 2002 which raised A$10 million for the company and see it as an asset rich company currently underpinned by the Broken Hill lead-zinc mine. Net cash and liquids amount to A$22.7 million and it has a suite of projects which include the Daisy Milano gold mine. The operational performance at Broken Hill was below par in the December quarter and the current quarter has been hit by a haulage shaft blockage, but the mine is expected to contribute a stormer from now on as productivity initiatives are bedded down.

CBH is given credit for bedding down the acquisition of the Endeavor lead zinc mine very quickly and efficiently. The timing was exactly right in terms of the lead and zinc prices though these were partially offset by the strong Aussie dollar. The brokers anticipate operating cost reductions from the introduction of road train haulage and further treatment plant debottlenecking. This should deliver substantial earnings upside provided the company does not run into any operational challenges. The team of James Wall and Bob Besley, as executive chairman and managing director respectively, have overcome some big hurdles with this company already so they deserve a good run. Other factors which should work in favour of the company are the metal prices, further drilling results from the Broken Hill Rasp project and signing up new customers for its Newcastle shiploader.

Possibly one of the most interesting recommendations is a company called Minara Resources which may not ring a bell with many UK investors. Remember Anaconda Nickel and the Murrin Murrin nickel laterite project which never seemed to work properly? Minara is Anaconda reborn and to crown it Dr James Campbell, who was Anglo American’s base metal boss at the time and in frequent conflict with Twiggy Forrest, is chairman. Now Murrin Murrin works and Patersons are expecting it to achieve annual production of 40,000 tonnes of nickel. Thanks to nickel and cobalt prices the company became cash positive in the December quarter and the company is now debt free. Moreover if there is a positive outcome from the Fluor Daniel arbitration in April the company could have as much as A$200 million in the kitty in nine months time which would enable it to pay an initial dividend.

Last of the Paterson mining recommendations is Straits Resources which is due to become a diversified mining house by adding gold and copper to its existing coal business. Sebuku Coal in Indonesia has returned to profitability following the replacement of the mining contractor and should report solid earnings growth this year. Exploration results at the Mount Muro gold project which is also in Indonesia have also been encouraging and this could be fast tracked into production as there is a plant on site. Meanwhile the Whim Creek copper project in Western Austalia is also on track for production by the year end. Quite a combination.

thanks for the postings goldfinger, not sure i agree with all, things are looking up at zoo, just about to break into the japanese market, and ascent media about to release 2 interactive dvds, who are just 1 of the numerous early adopters. Also at the prices, moneybox (atm) has more potential growth than scot tod.

cheers

Hi I facer, yes its certainly good news for ZOO and I still have a lot of this stock all the way up from around 4.5p,I sold my earlier tranchs. The problem is as a pointed out to a poster on the Zoo thread is that with results coming up Zoo are going to have to produce the recent profit warning and this in effect can take away from the positives in what we have seen with ZOO since December. Just depends how the market takes it on the day.

As for the ATM war sorry I cant agree there, I think Scott Tod are the better value at the moment, but I certainly wouldnt rule out transfering again as I have done out of cardpoint, into Money Box.

good luck.

cheers GF.

Continuing my theme from yesterday repositioning my portfolio, getting slowly but surely out of small techs and now looking at more stable less momentum led/low beta led stocks.
Placed an order for LAS London And Assoc Property, a new position. Around 61p to buy, NAV around a quid per share and that is very consevative. Has Bank of Scotland as a partner and also (Bisichi Mining which as its fingers in property aswell as south African mining, sales up 65% at last results and profits up over 100%.)

The consortium own and are developing amongst plenty of others Windsor shopping Centre and the church Square shopping centre in St Helens.

Has a low geared balance sheet and access to over 20 million of funds, looks like a craking investment to me.

cheers GF.

Solid results for TT Electronics and a positive forward looking statement.

TT electronics PLC
30 March 2004



TT ELECTRONICS PLC REPORTS ON STRONGER SECOND HALF FOR 2003 AND INDICATES
CONFIDENCE FOR 2004.

TT electronics, a World leader in resistor and sensor technology today announces
its preliminary results for the year to 31 December 2003.


KEY POINTS

•Group turnover on continuing activities of 527.5 million (2002: 512.5
million).

•Profit before goodwill amortisation, exceptional items and taxation was
20.0 million (2002: 19.2 million).

•The uplift in the second half saw operating profit before goodwill
amortisation increase by 19 per cent from 10.1 million in the first half to
12.0 million (H2 2002: 9.3 million).

•Sales to the automotive market grew by 12 per cent which was ahead of the
average market growth. The group has received over 350 million new
automotive orders spread over the lives of the product lines.

•The acquisition of Optek Technology for 30.3 million significantly
expanded our sensor activities and will contribute to group profitability in
2004.

•Magnetic businesses now reorganised with exceptional costs of 3.7
million and goodwill of 10.1 million recycled through the profit and loss
account.

•The Board is recommending a maintained final dividend of 6.36p per share
bringing the total for the year to 10.05p (2002: 10.05p).

John Newman, Executive Chairman said today:

'These results reflect both our continuing success within the automotive market
and improved trading conditions.

It is particularly pleasing to report a 12 per cent growth in sales to the
automotive market. We have for some years recognised the potential of this
market. The range of products and technologies we have developed is such that we
estimate that over 60 per cent of all cars produced in Europe and North America
incorporate at least one of our products. We continue to work with our customers
to develop new electronic solutions which improve vehicle fuel efficiency,
safety and comfort.

In recent months we have experienced an improvement in order intake which we
believe will be maintained and as a result now look forward with confidence to
better trading conditions in the current year.'
30 March 2004


Enquiries:
TT electronics plc Tel: 01932 856647
John W Newman, Executive Chairman

Biddicks Tel: 020 7448 1000
Zoe Biddick
Website:
www.ttelectronics.com


cheers GF

thanks for the response goldfinger, best of luck

goldfinger, heres an interesting article:


www.evbg.com 29 March 2004
Cardpoint (CASH) Buy (unchanged)
Mkt cap: 44m Net cash: 0.3m Comment Price/Target: 150p/133p
Cardpoint (CASH) Buy (unchanged)
Mkt cap: 44m Net cash: 0.3m Comment Price/Target: 150p/133p
More for your money
Cardpoints share price has had a strong run this year as investors have
warmed to its business model and track record. Despite this, it is valued at
a discount to its newly quoted competitor.
Cardpoints closest quoted competitor Moneybox (ATM.L) has been trading
for a few days. Its share price has been in a range of 50-52p a relatively
modest premium to its flotation price of 47p. Although competitors in terms
of delivery of convenience ATM services, there are important points of
differentiation between the businesses.
Cardpoints root is strong organic growth, but since flotation it has
established itself as the leading sector consolidator. Moneybox has been
grown organically
Cardpoint's estate is almost exclusively of managed ATMs. Moneybox
has 1,100 merchant replenishment ATMs (smaller and lower volume)
Cardpoint's estate (approx 2000 ATMs) is mainly wholly owned,
depreciated over 5 years. Moneybox's estate (2,400 in the UK, 180 in
Netherlands and 180 in Germany) is funded by 7 year operating leases.
Moneybox is looking to build fastest its merchant replenishment, Dutch
and German estates. Cardpoint has just entered the German market
Moneybox's average transactions/ATM/month is 1,400 (for the
managed ATMs) and 500 (for the merchant fill ATMs). Cardpoints
average is 975. Cardpoint's average is diluted by the Securicor
acquisition
Cardpoint's average withdrawal fee is 154p. Moneybox's is nearer to
150p
Moneybox has a net cash balance of 14.5m on its balance sheet. We
estimate that Cardpoint will end the year with net debt of 3.9m.
Cardpoint continues to seek acquisition opportunities to consolidate
further the sector utilising funding from the market as previously.
Moneybox has indicated that the cash balance, war chest, is to be used
for unspecified acquisitions
Neither group is currently paying tax because of past losses
Both groups have non-ATM businesses. Cardpoint's is the mobile
phone-top up business, which we estimate to contribute 0.3m on sales
of 9m this year. Moneybox has an electronic security / vending card
business, with turnover of about 10m and 10% margin.
As to valuation. Cardpoint is trading at a discount to Moneybox. EV/EBITA
probably provides the best comparator ratio for the groups. Our preliminary
estimates for Moneybox show turnover of 39m and pre-tax profit of 3m for
this year and 66m and 7.7m, respectively, for next year (years to Dec). On a
market cap of 103m this gives an EV/rev of 1.3x and EV/EBITA of 12.4x for
12/05E. For Cardpoint, we have 32m of turnover and 2.4m of operating
profit for the year to Sept 2004 and 37m and 4.0m, respectively, for next
year. On a market cap of 44m, this gives EV/rev of 1.2x and EV/EBITA
10.7x for 9/05E. There seems to be no good reason for Cardpoint trading at a
discount to Moneybox, aside from size, Cardpoint's longer record as a public
company and wider coverage argue for a valuation premium.


http://www.beesonresearch.co.uk/

Hi Goldfinger
I have made alot of cash from your tips, I am surprised,however that you have not mentioned afe recently. I know that they have taken a dive due to the rainy season and goldfields rejection of miyabi. however since the last rns they seem a bargain at 22p. Am I missing something here.

Cheers anyway
greedyb

No not at all in fact I have added to AFE over the last month. News is now seeping out from the company and I am sure you saw the latest RNS only a couple of days ago. Still worth holding and adding to in my opinion.

Cheers GF.

Hi Ifacer thanks for the gem on Cardpoint. Very interesting.

Will be posting on the 3 new shares I have bought hopefully this weekend. As I have pointed out in the last 2 weeks I am changing the portfolios direction slowly but surely away from small momentum/high beta techs into more solid low beta industrial stocks.

I beleive although some have called this premature this is the best way to go about it. People have mentioned the capital gains year end as a reason for the stagnation in the markets over the last few weeks. I say sorry theres more to it than that, the terrorist threat we face is holding the markets back and I for one do not want to be holding losses like most held on sept 11th and after.

We need to hedge for these problems and although I am not advocating going into all out defensives, surer less volatile stocks need to be bought and exchanged for some of the more volatile holdings.

cheers GF.

ps, please note there is no need for panic. I have had a few e-mails on these lines. I will not be selling BPRG or Mediwatch or CMS webview or SVR, but I have started to offload IMG and PTL and have sold Telspec outright after a few days.

GF

You change your stance a lot on shares when u say u will do something, then do something different i.e. you sold avocet mining for no reason other than price fell a bit. Its now risen back most of what it lost. Also, I noted u said you would hold Bema Gold for 10 years. Well you havbe top sliced already and from reading some of your other postings on other share tips, i do not have much credance on some of the things you say.
Although this is a board for everyone to air views and share facts, a lot of novices or people not understanding the stock market look at some peoples opinions or tips on this and buy into certain shares. I know you always say buy or sell in your own time etc but there does seem to be inconsistencies in some of the things u say.

Hope i have not annoyed you though for saying all this. I just felt it needed saying

Fair enough scotinvestor, theres always two sides to a coin.

Im still in Bema with a healthy profit and like others I do need the occasional drawings and hence my taking profits from a very large position. I still very much hold and will also add and sell being a tranch buyer and seller.

As for avocet I have been in these since 19p from around feb last year. I needed money for an investment in bricks and motar and this share provided me with that, and yes the price did fall and as just risen slightly. If you switch over to minesite.com there is a very damming piece on avocet criticising the company on its PR and its general promotion of the company.

I would also point out that the rebalancing of my portfolio as not been brought about because of economic facters in general (although I am very worried about the consumer debt problem here and in the US ) but more geopolitical events.

I for one could not forecast in Early January that the increased terrorist problems we have seen and are likely to face in the future would impact the home market and markets around the world in the fashion that it as done.

I personaly think it is very responsible of me to take this repositioning of my portfolio rather than to just let things be. If that means losing some revenues in the short term for a stronger portfolio in the future so then be it.

The ones who lose out in markets are the ones who cling to false hopes for far too long and then its too late.

Good look with your stratergy.

cheers GF.

Have any of you guys taken a hard look at:
Clarkson CKN
Maybourn MBY
Victoria VCP

They are all growing fast on a very low PE and paying a good divi

Check them out!

Cheers Graybadger will do Clarkson is an old favourite of mine.

cheers GF.

gf , does your strategy change incude hceg?

Maybourn is a no brainer.
Just look at their last results.
Turnover up 10%
Profit up 88% to 6.9m from 3.7m
EPS. up to 23.7p from 6.4p
Net Debt down 2.8m from 7.2m
Final divi 4.3p up 126%
And there is a share buy back 6% last year and the sme again this year.

Bosley, no holding and even adding to these.

cheers GF.

Datacash results in the morning.

GF

goldfinger

You were right about Caldwell!

We didn't know if or when they would be granted a patent or that they had applied.

Granted a patent at the beginning of March & the shares rapidly more than doubled.

A fact that doesn't justify such a rise but hey, facts seem to have a very loose relationship to share prices.

How the hell did Evil K know this was going to happen?

He He apple I told him. Stanley Wootliffe I know from the past.

cheers GF.

THREAD NOW CLOSED. THREAD NOW CLOSED. THREAD NOW CLOSED.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Why closed?

& who is Stanley Wootliffe?

Hi apple, stanley wootliff is the chairman of the company, and Ive decided due to lack of time to no longer contribute to the thread although if others want to keep it going fine.

All the recommendations are out on individual threads on the board, sorry I just dont have the time due to business commitments to keep posting and keep it up to date although I will be posting individual tips and updating and feel the RAB Capital one I posted today will be a jaffer. Good luck.

cheers GF.

>


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Juniors in denial
Eric Hommelberg
November 16, 2004

Note: This piece replaces the last week announced chapter VIII of the Gold drivers 2005 report "Gold & Investment opportunities in Gold Mining/Exploration companies". This piece has a strong focus on present situation. However 80% of presented material here will find its way into chapter VIII of the report. A preview of the report can be found here. Readers interested in the entire report can drop a mail. I'll send the entire report in pdf format around mid December. END.

Strange world today! While gold is making a 16-year high, many junior mining companies are struggling to bounce off their year-low these days. How come you may wonder, weren't they supposed to rise faster as their senior brothers on rising Gold prices? Weren't they supposed to be "an once in your lifetime opportunity?" How to explain the lack of excitement these days regarding juniors? Will they recover? How is this going to end? So what to do now? Sell, Hold or Buy? The main problem here is that many investors are counting on a severe correction in the price of Gold and therefore started selling their Gold shares. However, the liquidity in junior gold mining shares is so small that they simply can't absorb the generated selling pressure. What happens next is a rapid decline in the junior shares (lack of bids) thereby confusing many shareholders. When the selling pressure continues confusion turns into fear and further down the road into panic. The result can be a dramatic waterfall sell-off. I wrote this piece in order to show investors that it won't be such a clever deal imo to sell your junior mining shares right now. It's my strong believe that looking back in a few years time at this period (Q4-04) when Gold was at the verge of breaking its 16-year high of $430 and on its way to $500 that people will wonder how they could be so stupid to sell junior shares at these historic lows. So the main question here is:

Are the Juniors on a launch pad now and should I invest accordingly?

Well, let us examine the question first of why to invest in junior mining companies at all.

Why to invest in Junior Mining companies

Since the start of the current bull market in Gold in 2001 the Gold share index HUI appreciated by more than 600%. Still lot of denial does exist among fund managers regarding the strength of this current bull. It seems that the first phase of this bull market in Gold (which was characterized by denial) is in its latest stage and phase two (which will be characterized by acceptance) will be launched by slashing Gold's 16-year high of $430. Expect some serious inflow of investment capital during this second phase of the bull market in Gold and watch out what will happen with the high quality junior mining firms. They can go ballistic but it requires a stomach of steel in order to keep them during severe corrections. They tend to rise faster as their senior brothers but also the opposite is true, they fall much harder during corrections. Is an investment in a junior mining firm extremely risky as some people want you to believe? Well, Ian Gordon (vice president of Canacord Capital and editor of the long Wave Analyst) gave some presentations in Europe lately in order to promote the investment opportunities in junior mining firms.
His presentation was titled:

"Investing in Junior Gold Mining Shares. What risk? What reward?"

He clearly pointed out that an investment made today in a high quality junior mining firm should not be categorized as being a high risk investment. Why not? Because you'll buy them at historic low levels today thereby reducing the downside risk towards a minimum. (of course he refers to a multi-year time span and not the short term volatility which can be extreme.)

Furthermore Ian Gordon said: "the main investments I make is in bullion and junior mining companies" END.

So what makes the juniors so special then? Well, the reason is twofold. First of all the senior producers will go after them so why won't you as an investor do the same? Second is that Juniors tend to rise very fast on rising Gold prices but as said before also the opposite is true, they'll drop much faster during severe corrections and thus subject to extreme volatility.

Let us focus on these characteristics by answering the following:

Juniors & the price of Gold. What influence?
Juniors & declining gold reserves. Why should they benefit?
Juniors & volatility. How to approach?
Juniors & declining gold reserves. Why should they benefit?

As mentioned above world wide declining gold reserves will benefit the juniors because their senior brothers will go after them. But why are the senior producers hunting for them? Because the Gold industry is facing a decline in Gold production coming years and the senior gold producers will be struggling in order to replace their dwindling gold reserves. So how bad is this situation really? Alex Davidson (Vice President Exploration Barrick Gold) said last year:

"Big mining companies need to spend more on exploration, or else, at current annual production rates, reserves will be depleted in 10 years, he said. It can take six to eight years between making a discovery and starting mine production, and "we're not currently funding exploration at a level required to replace reserves,"

It seems that the awareness of a dwindling Gold supply is growing these days. Dow Jones News Service reported on Nov 10:

"Merrill Lynch Investment Managers have a favorable outlook for gold, underpinned primarily by emerging pressures on supply".

Merill Gold fund manager Evy Hambro said:

"We've got a situation where the mined production of gold is going to be declining for the foreseeable future,". END.

Further more Hambro said that falling mine output over the coming years was one of the reasons to to prolong the rally in U.S. dollar gold prices. Hambro is not a crank, his seven-member team is one of the world's largest managers of gold equity investments, overseeing about US$6.5 billion spread between several mining funds.

The main reason for this situation to exist was a lack of Exploration during the 1997 2002 period. Exploration budgets had been slashed by 67% during this period. Fortunately the Exploration sector attracted more investment capital again since 2003 but the sad truth is that it doesn't matter how much money you'll throw at Exploration, no matter what the Gold price is, it still takes three to five five years from scratch before a big discovery can be made and after that it still takes four to seven years before a mine can be opened in order to mine the new discovery.

Newmont president Pierre Lassonde said (August 2003):

"The 20-year bear market in gold has weeded out marginal gold producers and significantly curbed exploration and production.". "If gold was $1,000 an ounce, it still takes four to seven years to open a mine," END.

Barrick CEO Greg Wilkins said more or less the same, he said (Nov 2004):

"The average lead time for a large discovery to go on-stream with production was around five to seven years but that seven to 10 years was probably more realistic. ". "The industry isn't going to be able to respond immediately to higher gold prices. It is going to take a long time." END.

Trevor Steel, partner at Baker Steel Capital Managers told delegates at a two-day Euromoney gold seminar recently:

"The way I like to think of it is that the gold industry is in overdraft. It's been relying very much on discoveries that were made many, many years ago and it is not replacing the reserves it is mining every year,"

Despite this, Steele said the industry needed to spend more money on exploration to find big enough deposits to replace production.

"It is going to be a major challenge for the majors . . . yes of course they can acquire, but they all want to find the large assets and there just aren't that many of them around."

Paul Burton, editor of World Gold said:

"But the industry needs major new finds to replenish the inventory pipeline. What we need to reinvigorate the industry is some major new finds. Such discoveries are rare."END.

Let's repeat the last sentence here:

"What we need to reinvigorate the industry is some major new finds. Such discoveries are rare."

Indeed, such discoveries are rare. According to Alex Davidson (Vice President Exploration Barrick) only a very few major deposits (5+ million ounce) have been discovered since 1999.

It should be obvious by now that the Gold industry is desperate for new major discoveries. But where to find them? Remember that 75% of all discoveries are made by junior mining companies so it ain't difficult to understand where the big producers are heading to. The trend is obvious:

Barrick opened an office earlier this year in Vancouver in order to monitor Junior companies.

"Barrick Gold's New Office Tracks Junior Exploration Cos."

"Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX) has opened a Vancouver office to monitor junior exploration projects, executive vice-president Alex Davidson said at an exploration conference. Davidson said two or three employees in the office are tracking junior projects, and visiting managers of companies and their exploration sites. The local office also handles Barrick's exploration efforts around Eskay Creek, its 100%-owned gold mine in northern B.C."

And what about Anglogold?

AngloGold CEO Bobby Godsell said:

"It is the end of big picture gold consolidation; there is no compelling logic to combining anymore. The real challenge now is how to replace your ounces for the future." The race to replace ounces is about to begin. It will take the form of takeovers of small producers with long reserve lives and high quality junior mining companies with large in ground reserves that can be mined economically." END.

A few month later these thoughts were echoed by Sam Jonah, the company president:

Where will AngloGold buy next?
Monday August 2, 2004

Sam Jonah, the company president says small gold companies will be the point of entry.

"We will look at juniors that have attractive assets in there portfolios and require our expertise and capital to move these projects forward." END.

And what about Newmont? Are they interested in Juniors? Well, it seems they are! They took an interest in Gabriel Resources Ltd. So what happened to its share price? It shot up by 54%!

Newmont adds muscle to Gabriel gold find, stock up "VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Shares in Gabriel Resources Ltd. leapt as much as 54 percent on Monday on news that the world's biggest gold producer plans to buy a stake in it -- a major credibility boost for the small Canadian miner that owns Europe's largest gold deposit. "

"At a time when the world's biggest producers are mining out reserves more quickly than they are replacing them, the project is regarded as a big and important future source of gold, and rumors have surfaced frequently that a major may buy it." END.

And what about Goldfields?

Gold Fields: Investing in juniors make sense
28 Sept 2004

Ian Cockerill: "We invest in 10 juniors in the hope that one or two of them come up trumps, and the value you get off the table there will pay for the other eight that do not. But you are spreading your exploration dollars, It increases your chance of success."

"It has been a very successful program," Cockerill declared. He estimated that Gold Fields invested $30 million to $40 million in the junior exploration company process, converted $120 million in value, of which $40 million was harvested." END.

I hope you'll understand by now that the better junior mining companies are being watched like a hawk by their senior brothers so as an investor you should do the same.

Juniors & the price of Gold. What influence?

The primary key driver for Gold Mining equities remains of course the price of Gold. Make no mistake about it, without higher gold prices there won't be any excitement in this sector. So higher gold prices will do the trick, but when to expect excitement really to kick in? That's difficult to answer but my intake is this. First of all you should ask yourself if you're convinced of higher Gold prices down the road. No bull market in Gold means no bull market in Gold mining equities. It's that simple. I think that we're in a bull market in Gold for reasons well documented in my piece "Gold drivers 2005 preview" which can be found here. If you agree to be in a Gold bull market then you should analyze where we exactly are in this bull market and how much further potential we may have got. Any secular bull market can be divided into three stages. The first stage is being characterized by climbing a wall off worry and denial. The second stage will be characterized by acceptance and large inflow of institutional investment capital. The third stage will be characterized by mania. It's my strong believe that we are at the end of stage one of this bull market in Gold and on the verge of entering stage two. When Gold's 16-year high of $430 will be slashed definitely investors will realize that this bull market in Gold is for real and excitement can kick in very fast. But are we going to slash the $430 level now or do we have to face another Gold ambush and watch the shares going down again? Well, we're at a critical juncture here, indeed some analysts warning for a correction now, some analysts even calling in a top of a three year bear-market rally (Prechter) and expect Gold to fall below $300 again while on the other hand some analysts are calling for an accelerated move towards $500. You see, confusion is all over the place in the Gold market these days which makes investors to decide to step aside from the gold market for a while.

Let us focus now on today's situation. It reminds me of December 2002 when Gold was struggling in order to break its long term resistance of $325. The same skepticism was being felt as we're witnessing today. When the $325 resistance was taken out the formation of a teacup with handle was completed and Gold took off. The following chart was published by Mr. Jim Sinclair on December 13 2002.



Mr James Sinclair furthermore wrote:

"This is a momentous occasion and something you may not see again technically in your trading career. Not only is it rare to see this formation, but rarer even to see any formation with such symmetry. The more symmetrical a formation is, the more meaningful it is. The longer it takes to construct a rare formation like this, the more meaningful the formation is."

"I suggest you save the chart given to you this evening on the technical review. In your career, whenever you see this again, in anything, you will know what to do." END.

That was December 2002.

Mr. James Sinclair was right. Gold took off all the way up from $325 to $390 in a short period of time (less than two months). Why do I come with the December 2002 teacup formation? Well, because we are completing just right now another teacup with handle formation and therefore I want to repeat Mr. James Sinclair's statement from December 2002:

In your career, whenever you see this again, in anything, you will know what to do.

Sure, Mr. James Sinclair brought the current teacup formation to his subscribers' attention last month by publishing the following chart:



Published by James Sinclair on www.jsmineset.com

What should be obvious by now is that you'll recognize the importance of the $430 resistance. When it breaks, a rapid launch towards the $500 mark isn't unthinkable. The following chart illustrates the importance of the $430 resistance level from a very long term perspective.



Published by Ian Gordon at www.thelongwaveanalayst.com

So here we do have a completed teacup with handle formation projecting a rapid rise towards the $500 mark which is confirmed by the long term chart of Gold as well. What's needed now is a decisive break of the $430 - $435 resistance.

As I said, a rapid rise towards the $500 mark is not unthinkable. James Turk of goldmoney.com publicly says to expect Gold to hit $500 by year end. No, this is not a misprint, he expects Gold to hit $500 by year end. In his latest piece "The Buck drops here" (Nov 10) he wrote:

"In fact, gold looks like a rocket just starting to launch. Ignition occurred on Friday, October 29th when gold closed at 16-year weekly and monthly highs. Lift-off is now just beginning. As can be seen from the above chart, gold is moving off of its launch pad by breaking above the horizontal, dashed red line. But just as importantly, we can see from this chart that $500 is not a moon-shot away, but rather just a short chip-shot. Let's see how long it takes gold to reach that level. As I noted in my recent interview in Barron's, which has the same title as this alert, I expect gold to be at $500 by the end of this year, or early next year at the latest." END. http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php

So what happens if Gold breaks its 16-year high of $430 level definitely?

Again, the bull market in Gold will gain much more acceptance and investment capital will find its way into the Gold mining sector. But here is the problem, the entire Gold mining sector is so small that this sector will simply explode when serious investment capital is heading towards the Gold mining sector. We saw that happen last time when serious investment capital was heading towards the Gold mining sector in 1996, the XAU index was on a launch pad to 150 and many junior companies appreciated multiples of 100%. The chart below shows perfectly clear what kind of wonders a rapid rise of the Gold price could do for a junior but it also shows what kind of disaster a declining price of Gold can cause. The chart presented here is from a typical junior Gold Mining/Exploration company.



That was 1996 but unfortunately the rapid rise in the price of Gold back then is written down in history books as a bear market really. Now fast forward to present situation. The current bull market in Gold started in 2001 and yes, the year of 2003 showed some renewed interest for the gold mining equities as well but still many investors are anxious to get in. That will change when Gold is marching towards the $500 mark.

Highlights

Gold is on the verge of breaking its 16-year high and heading for $500
Juniors tend to rise very fast in a rising Gold environment
Juniors could benefit tremendously from major discoveries as they are being closely watched by the senior producers
Juniors can be extreme volatile as we've witnessed during Q4 2004
To junior investors I would say:

Get used to the high volatility surrounding the junior sector. Just hold your shares and let them do their Exploration. That's why you should have bought them in the first place, not for short term speculation. Give them the time needed to complete their Exploration programs. Yes, your shares will be subject to sudden panic sell offs in the future again, that's all in the game but they'll recover just as they recovered from previous panic sell offs. Why? Because we're in a bull market in gold. The big move in junior mining stocks is still ahead of us.

Eric Hommelberg
ehommelberg@planet.nl
November 14, 2004

________________
321gold Inc Miami USA

I am patiently holding Bisichi BISI, African Eagle AFE and also Adstrata AAA. Here's hoping I picked the right ones!!

This thread is closed.--------------------------------------------------------