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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 19th January (MONI)     

Crocodile - 18 Jan 2004 11:58

Premarket Futures FTSE +2 DAX +10 DOW +23 S&P +0.1 Nasdaq +2.5

1 Day 2 Day 5 Day - UK News

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FTSE 250

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FTSE Small Cap

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FTSE TechMark

1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  Futures US news

draw?period=1D&class=class+com.deltastre

Nasdaq 100

[Chart]

S&P 500

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S&P Futures

DAX / CAC    Euro News

Nikkei +179   Hang Seng +50 Asia News

[Chart]

10 Year Bond

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London Traders Day 29th January -   Traders Room    Investors Room
News: Sorry Your browser is not java capable  

Ebookers Online travel agency says its gross sales for the December quarter beat market expectations and January trading has begun well across most of its business. Courts household furniture said the weak dollar had hit sales and it was reviewing strategic options.

Monsoon fashion retailer said sales in the five weeks to January 3 were two percent up on the previous year, in line with its expectations of its Christmas trading performance.

News will be posted at approx 7:35am

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT

 Monsoon (I), Sanctuary Group (F)

Ebookers Trading Update

00.01 Jan Rightmove House price Report

CLOSED

The stock market will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr.'s birthday,

Infineon (Q1),

07.00 EMU Dec German Produce Prices m/m flat exp. 11.00 EMU Nov Trade Balance 7.5bn exp.

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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Crocodile - 18 Jan 2004 11:59 - 2 of 65

ukf.gif

United Kingdom - Calendar  19th - 23rd Jan

usf.gif

United States  (GMT)

euro.gif

Europe & World (GMT)

 Monsoon (I), Sanctuary Group (F)

Ebookers Trading Update

00.01 Jan Rightmove House price Report

CLOSED

The stock market will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr.'s birthday,

Infineon (Q1),

07.00 EMU Dec German Produce Prices m/m flat exp. 11.00 EMU Nov Trade Balance 7.5bn exp.

Bespak (I),

Aviva FY Sales 2.34bn exp.

09.30 Dec Harmonised CPI y/y 1.2% exp. 09.30 Dec RPI-X y/y 2.5% exp.

10.00 OECD Economic Survey of the UK

AMD (Q4), Citigroup (Q4), General Motors (Q4), Motorola (Q4), Unisys (Q4), Johnson & Johnson, United Technologies

18.00 US Jan NAHB Housing Market Index 69.0 exp.

10.00 EMU Jan ZEW Economic Sentiment 73.3 exp. 11.00 EMU Nov Industrial Production m/m 0.5% exp.

Somerfield (I) PBT 44.7m exp. GW Pharmaceuticals (F),

Cookson Q4 Trading Update

00.01 Treasury Committee Publishes Report on Budget Deficit 09.30 Bank of England Minutes Released 09.30 Dec Public Sector Net Borrowing 5.5bn exp. 09.30 Dec Preliminary M4 money Supply y/y 6.8% exp. 09.30 CML, BBA & BSA Mortgage Lending Figures

Computer Ass (Q4), eBay (), JP Morgan Chase (Q4), Lucent Tech (Q1), Merrill Lynch (Q4)12.00 US MBA Mortgage Applications (w/e 16/01) 13.30 US Dec Housing Starts 1955k exp. 13.30 US Dec Building Permits 1868k exp.

11.00 EMU Dec CPI y/y 2.1% exp. 11.00 EMU 3rd Quarter Revised Labour Costs y/y 3.0% exp.

Ex Dividend: Arla Foods (0.5), Baggeridge Brick (4.25), British Land (4.43), Burberry Group (1.5), Galen holdings (2.4), HMV Group (1.3), Heiton Group ( .07), Iaws Group ( 0.047), Imperial Tobacco (30), Kelda Group (8.1), Kleeneze (1), Lonmin (US$ 0.42), Northgate (7)

Ashtead Group (I) PBT 10m exp.

Enterprise Inns (AGM), Renishaw (I), Stanley Leisure (I)

Misys (I) PBT 45.7m exp. Prudential FY Sales 1.6bn exp.

Luminar Trading Update

St James Place Capital FY Sales Marlborough Stirling Trading Update

11.00 BCC Quarterly Economic Survey

Amgen (Q4), AT&T (Q4), Ford (Q4), Microsoft (I), Eastmen kodak

13.30 US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 17/01) 345k exp. 15.00 US Dec Leading Indicators 0.2% exp.

 

Nokia (F), SAP AG (F), Siemens (Q1), KLM (Q3)

09.00 EMU Jan ECB Monthly Report

Burdene Investments (F)Wolverhampton & Dudley AGM & Trading Update,

BOC (AGM) Enterprise Inns (ETI) Stock Split Ex Date. Terms are 2 shares for 1 share held.

09.30 4th Quarter GDP q/q 0.7% exp. 09.30 Dec Retail Sales m/m 0.3% exp. 09.30 Dec Car Production 3m/3m

 

00.01 EMU Nov German Construction Orders (BBK) y/y

 

Provisional Calendar For The Week Following  19th - 23rd Jan

Alterian(I), Beale (I)

15:00 Existing Home Sales  

Games Workshop Group (I) Kensington Group (F)

ARM Holdings (F), Porvair (F)

Finsbury Growth Trust (AGM), Standard Life European (AGM), Abacus (AGM)

0930 BBA mortgage lending data 1430 Institute for Fiscal Studies green budget

 

 

Halladale Group (I)

Northern Rock (I), Fairbriar Group(F), ML Laboratories (I),

Invesco Recovery Trust 2005 (AGM) RM Group (AGM), Thirdforce (AGM) Trivest VCT (AGM) 10:30 GfK consumer confidence survey 

13.30 Durable Orders 15:00 New Home Sales 19:00 FOMC Meeting  

 

Ex Dividend:

Osmetech (I),

Crest Nicholson (I),

Landaround (F)

Gyrus Group (AGM), London Stock Exchange (AGM)

09:30 Dec consumer credit 09:30 Dec M4/M4 lending, revised

13.30 Employment Cost Index 13.30 Initial Claims 15:00 Help-Wanted Index  

 

Allied Domecq (AGM) Forever Broadcasting (AGM) Slimma (AGM)

13.30 Chain Deflator-Adv. 13.30 GDP-Adv. 14.45 Mich Sentiment-Rev. 15:00 GMT Chicago PMI

 

 

Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead  -  Sunday 18th Jan

A quiet week ahead as far as large companies reporting with only Insurers set to inject life into FTSE. There is growing confidence that the sector is over the worst of a three-year slump. However in the States we have a slew of earnings from leading U.S. companies, including banking giant JP Morgan Chase, Microsoft and telecoms group AT&T

The market will also keep a wary eye on currency developments next week, with concerns mounting that the weaker U.S. dollar against sterling will force some companies to scale back their forecasts. Many companies have already said the weaker dollar has eaten into profits.MondaySanctuary Group one the UK's smallest listed record companies reports annual results. They produce records for several well know artists including Dolly Parton at a reasonable price so have not been affected by the freeloading of music over the Internet. That should help Sanctuary lift annual profits to 16.7m on sales of 160m.

Monsoon fashion group releases its half year results after a turbulent year in which the chain's founders battled with shareholders to move the group to AIM. Tuesday

Aviva, Britain's biggest insurer reports new business figuresWednesday

Somerfield are expected to produce sparkling results with profits of 14.3m against about 7.9m last time - an 81% increase, spurred by a stores refit programme.

Cookson electronics and ceramics releases fourth-quarter figures that should confirm that it is on track to meet market forecasts of profits of 25m for the year. The group is expected to report a pick-up in sales in its electronics division and a turnaround in sales in precious metals following a 4% drop to 75m in the last quarter. The largest of its 3 divisions is ceramics so signs of progress there should hold the key to the direction of the sahre price.

GW Pharmaceuticals reports annual results and is expected to report a loss of 10m. Shares fell on worries that the regulator has delayed approval of its cannabis-based multiple sclerosis medicationThursday

Stanley Leisure gaming group is expected to report profits of 2.01m against 24.7m previously. Investors will be looking for encouraging signs following large losses at its Crockfords casino to some of its major players followed by a profit warning.Misys software recently warned that poor performances by its banking and securities arm and healthcare operations would adversley effect first-half revenues. Analysts expect it to post profits of 45.7m for the six months compared to 56.2m at the same time last year.chartftse.gif

Prudential and mid-cap wealth management firm St James's Place release sales numbers. Merrill Lynch and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said the sector's prospects looked to be improving after a prolonged period of underperformance and expect sales growth to pick up through 2004.

Renishaw precision engineers reports interims, they are specialists in spectroscopes including Raman microscopes. These are increasingly being used by gemologist to identify the mineral inclusion in precious stones. Renishaw was upbeat in October over the future after reporting higher turnover for the first three months of the year.

In the US the government releases the weekly number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. Economists expect the number to rise slightly to 347,000, but stay well below the key 400,000 four-week average level. At 15:00 the Conference Board releases its closely watched leading indicators gauge. The index, which foreshadows economic activity in the next three to six months, is expected to rise 0.2 percent for December

Friday

Wolverhampton & Dudley painted an optimistic outlook at its last AGM and investors will be hoping for more of the same. Since posting sales growth of 3.6% in the year to September 30, the group has benefited from good weather and the Rugby World Cup, with a rise in like-for-like volumes of 3.1% at its managed pubs and 45% at its tenanted inns. BOC's AGM should confirm positive momentum in volumes and pricing, plus tentative signs of an improved order outlook for its semiconductor equipment supply business. Investors may be keen to hear if the group has changed its mind about making provisions for possible litigation compensation for 9700 welders over claims that manganese welding fumes gave them Parkinson's disease.

Thoughts

The FTSE and most of the other World markets finished higher last week with the S&P & DOW both wrapping up eight weeks of gains and almost 2 years highs. U.S. stocks look set to glide higher next week, as long as strong fourth-quarter profit reports keep on coming. However after Intel which beat earnings estimates but didn't lift guidance traded slightly lower suggested that high expectations are already factored into stock prices. Analysts seem to be split 50/50 on the future direction of the markets. Some analysts still feel that we are only in the early phases of a stock market recovery while others believe that the number of key companies issuing upbeat forecasts for the rest of the year will slow down.

Last week I was asked to explain my views on using Intraday charts to predict market direction. The FTSE chart above shows the importance of using these in conjunction with pivot points to establish support and resistance levels. We must remember that computerised trading systems are unaware that the market closes during the evening or even over the Weekend and they simply continue to trade the trend as if there had not been a break. This can help us trade the indices directly or give us guidance in taking out new positions and knowing where to take profits on the underlying tracker stocks such as Barclays and the rest of the top 50 FTSE stocks.

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead!  David (Crocodile) David@SnappyTrader.com  www.SnappyTrader.com

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

 

Crocodile - 18 Jan 2004 12:00 - 3 of 65

Headlines Sunday 18th January

BAE Systems The National Audit Office is expected to publish a damning report on them and the Ministry of Defence's 20 largest projects, criticising the department for cost overruns and delays to major projects. The report will single out four projects of particular concern - Astute, Nimrod, Eurofighter-Typhoon and Brimstone. BAE, which is involved in all of the projects, has had to make many provisions and redundancies over the programmes.Marconi's reliance on a raft of new contracts from British Telecom BT.L to boost its revival is under threat as BT has decided to award contracts to multiple providers as part of a "mix and match" approach. BT is preparing to spend billions of pounds upgrading its out-of-date copper-wire network, however the project could actually benefit Marconi's rivals - such as Nortel, Alcatel and Siemens.

Newspaper publisher Hollinger International has sacked media tycoon Conrad Black as its chairman.He is also being sued along with one of his top deputies for more than $200m. Transport Secretary Alistair Darling is preparing to announce the biggest shake-up of the rail system since privatisation. The Strategic Rail Authority is set to be largely stripped of its powers under the changes, expected to be detailed on Monday. The UK mortgage market was driven by people remortgaging, research has claimed. People wanted to get a better deal or to release cash from their property during 2003, analysts Datamonitor claimed. Royal Bank of Scotland has been identified as the most suitable candidate to buy Standard Life.

SUNDAY TIMES Ireland: Gardai may quiz CRH on leaked emissions plan British Airways prepares to axe jobs in 300m cost-cutting campaign M&S rules out bid for Safeway Scottish Radio takeover looms after Emap deal Acquisitive RBS chief is in pole position to crack Egg Lehman Brothers looks to bite into Thorntons Invensys chief plans 500m rights surprise EMAP Cowdery ahead in Royal and Sun Alliance life bid Bank of Ireland tipped as top takeover target

Judgement Day: Should you buy shares in Ted Baker? Sharewatch: Dobbies Garden Centres Directors' Deals: Boss snaps up cut-price M&S shares BP: oil price will stay high Share price has BP over a barrel Should you buy shares in Qualceram Shires?

Marconi Corporation Making millions from misery Prudential, Acquisitive RBS chief is in pole position to crack Egg

SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Numis Corporation Centaur on market for 130m Leeds 'suitor' yet to prove funds Manchester United Gardner sues for peace over Ferguson's horse

Marks & Spencer Taking it on the chin Shell Transport Group When will Watts come out of his shell?

Shell investors reject Watts' explanation

Glisten Confectionery firm has become sweeter with investors since its flotatio in 2002 and last week unwrapped the 6.5 million purchase of wine gums and jelly babies maker Fravigar. Acquisitions are a core part of its strategy to become a niche food producer and the Fravigar deal follows the 1 million purchase of confectionery packaging firm Sunya in October. Analysts expect Glisten's profits to grow more than 30% to 1.8 million this year with its focus on niche products such as chocolate-coated raisins and popcorn helping to protect it from tough market conditions. Buy at 185p. InTechnology, the data technology company, last week posted an upbeat trading statement with the announcement that strong demand for storage hardware and software had led to a record quarter for its core storage division. Chief executive Charles Cameron said the group is now confident of a 'solid outcome for the full year'. Analysts are predicting an upturn in the data storage market in 2004 and the share price looks good value. Buy at 73p. Austin Reed seems to have suffered more than most with the departure of chief executive Roger Jennings on Thursday capping a disappointing festive season. Sales dropped 11.3% on a like-for-like basis during the 22 weeks to January 10 while total sales also fell 5.2%. The share price is overvalued and appears to reflect continued speculation that Austin Reed will be a takeover target this year. But a bid may not be forthcoming as the retail sector suffering a crisis of confidence and investors should sell at 136p.

OBSERVER Hunters Leisure Black in new US legal drama Amec loses out to US in Iraq deal Get rid of Watts, say Shell investors Barclays job is sop to politically correct City

Will Emap's Zoo give lads more balls than Nuts? Shell shareholders seek reserves and answers

Hunters Leisure Barclay brothers in Telegraph bid Doubts over Invensys chief's future

MAIL ON SUNDAY BT at war in the boardroom, Feud as rivals vie for top job Manufacturers boosted by BAE rumour Pay vote shame for Standard chiefs, Policyholders 'to punish the board' Centaur Comms in 160m flotation, Magazine publisher seeks AIM listing Spirit puts 600m pubs on sale, Backers eye stock market flotation

Funeral chain in 100m market float, Big windfalls for Dignity bosses BOC boss walks away with 1.5m, Another generous payoff from gas group Casino group hits a losing streak, Stanley Leisure profits in 5m hit Sale in the offing for Tradeweb, Bonds trader in talks with suitors

Boots warns of more job cuts, Axe to fall on head office

INDEPENDENT  Ofgem set 'unlawful' terms for Powergen takeover Marconi revival threatened as BT casts the net wider Lloyds to be a bid- free zone till 2006 BAE in deep water over defence deals

A race against time to put success back into M&S Lloyds TSB Business View: US banking deals are big and bad and can't be ignored by the Brits RBS Business View: US banking deals are big and bad and can't be ignored by the Brits

Matalan has been out of favour with investors since it warned that pre-tax profits for the current financial year would not top 70m. Slow sales, caused in part by the unusually warm November, meant it was forced to cut prices earlier and more deeply than expected over the festive season. Matalan is looking to cut prices on spring and summer fashions to boost like-for-like sales, while slowing its store opening programme. Speculation in the City remains that the retailer is a potential takeover target. Buy with caution at 165p.

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Struggling Eurotunnel faces rebel showdown Share buying fans send Celtic stock soaring Walt Disney in hunt for SMG's GMTV stake Macfarlane speeds up non-core property sell-off New marketing chief for Royal Bank of Scotland

Aegon NV Sign of things to come in the 1% world

SMG and Scottish Radio Holdings under scrutiny GKN dismisses talk of BAE deal Leeds United faces deadline

SUNDAY EXPRESS EMI Two upgrades from brokers last week were music to the ears with the City increasingly confident that the three-year slump in the music industry was finally over. Fourth-quarter sales growth of 4.3% is believed to have been achieved through better releases, litigation against illegal digital downloads, the impact of digital downloading devices iPod and iTunes and an improving economy. The UK market is growing and the recent adoption of an EU copyright directive gives bodies such as the music industry the opportunity to sue illegal downloaders so growth rates may still improve. Buy at 230p. HMV last week buoyed investors with a strong festive performance - marked by a 52% rise in DVD sales. Analysts said the group has the edge in music compared to supermarket rivals and is poised for further growth. Buy at 189 3/4p. French Connection's robust wholesale business and a consumer recovery in the US will ease fears about weaker clothing sales over Christmas. Analysts think FCUK can continue to grow in the UK because of its strong brand and the group has also signed some exciting global licensing deals. Buy at 328p.

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy - Hilton (HG), Wincanton (WIN), Minerva (MNR), Fountains (FNT), Cardpoint (CASH) and Victoria (VCP).Updates: Fenner (FENR) - Good value. William Hill (WMH) - Buy. Coutts (CAH) - Fairly priced. Codascisys (CSY) - Buy. Shell (SHEL) - Buy.

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy - Bovis (BVS), ServicePower (SVR), Centrica (CNA). Sell - Bunzl (BNZL), Brown & Jackson (BRJK).

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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lr4850 - 18 Jan 2004 12:20 - 4 of 65

Hi Croc

New to this BB. Great Thread. Read your article on trading patterns and bot trades.Have you any views On the RSV alleged market abuse and EVO. I feel that EVO have been up to no good with OMH - a share I hold and wondered whether you have observed any odd trades with this share ?

Crocodile - 18 Jan 2004 12:35 - 5 of 65

Ir4850
Sorry I havent been watching OMH but I will keep an eye on it following your post. Perhaps some of other posters have noticed odd trades?
draw?epic=OMH

optomistic - 18 Jan 2004 12:37 - 6 of 65

Hi Croc
I read your thread everyday, the work you put into producing 'Traders Thread & Thoughts' is very much appreciated.

davet1p - 18 Jan 2004 13:07 - 7 of 65

davet1p
Read and much appreciated, thanks.

Crocodile - 18 Jan 2004 13:41 - 8 of 65

Dave, optomistic thanks for that but I enjoy doing it and it does make me do my homework & research for trading next week!
How do you see the markets in the near future?

theresearcher - 18 Jan 2004 14:08 - 9 of 65

theresearcher - 18 Jan 2004 14:09 - 10 of 65

Hi Croc,

A must read for me. Keep up the good work.

Melnibone - 18 Jan 2004 16:21 - 11 of 65

Always read the thread and enjoy hearing other folk's views, Croc.
Helps to curb my sometimes over-optimistic belief in my own positions. :-)

I think there's something for everyone here. There's up to date
news and peoples different take on it.

There is a good blend of posters ranging from experienced 'Old Hands'
to beginners.

You get an idea which stocks folk are looking at to either rise
or fall when they give information about what they are long or
short on and why.

It helps to chat and share views so that you do not sit in isolation
repeating past mistakes through poor strategy and bad money
management.

What's pleasing is that we can share opposite views on the same stock
without resorting to juvenile name-calling or egotistical put-downs,
just using good-natured banter and leg-pulling instead.

If there are any lurkers or 'newbies' who haven't plucked up the
courage to post a view or a question, give it a go.
Don't be put off by the odd 'prat' you read on other threads or sites
who'll try and score points off you with a smart remark,
it's them that's got the problem, not you, they're just trying
to bolster their own fragile egos.
Give them a pat on the head, tell them that you understand
and wish them a speedy recovery. :-)

Melnibone.


BBaggins - 18 Jan 2004 16:39 - 12 of 65

hi croc and thanks for your effort.

stockbunny - 18 Jan 2004 17:00 - 13 of 65

This thread is most appreciated I am sure by many on the board Croc
including me. My thanks to you as a gentleman for putting up with this
bunny's odd thoughts, strange trading strategies and at times
daft humour on your thread!
I am delighted to be able to pop in at times with coffee & do'nuts
and share thoughts and ideas with the regulars.

capt M - 18 Jan 2004 17:58 - 14 of 65

Hi David, still reading the thread. Traders meeting on 29th looks interesting but I am too busy to make it unfortunately. Thanks again for your efforts.

Mike

Stan - 18 Jan 2004 18:18 - 15 of 65

Hi Croc,

Echo all of the above.

Good trading all, on what looks a quiteish week over here(reporting wise),but a fair bit more from the states, might have some impact over here...just like it used to and not the 20 or so PTS movements we have been getting.

Regards

Stan.

roma - 18 Jan 2004 18:19 - 16 of 65

Hi Croc, Read your thread every day,very helpful,appreciate the effort you put into it.thanks.

MissLoadsadosh - 18 Jan 2004 20:07 - 17 of 65

Out of lurk mode to say Hi Croc and thanks for the thread
am looking forward to the London Traders Meet.

Fundamentalist - 18 Jan 2004 20:13 - 18 of 65

Croc,

Great thread as always, helps me to focus on what i plan to do in the forthcoming week. Keep up the great work - it is appreciated by an awful lot of us

character - 18 Jan 2004 20:22 - 19 of 65

brilliant-cheers

Crocodile - 18 Jan 2004 20:31 - 20 of 65

Testex, agree re Playboy!

bishopjeremy - 18 Jan 2004 21:03 - 21 of 65

both this and snappytrader are among the sites I visit the most.
many thanks for your invaluable help

chartist2004 - 18 Jan 2004 21:34 - 22 of 65

Hi Dave, Thanks for keeping us all updated on the market. Just read your thoughts regarding 'market robots', most interesting article.

philj66 - 18 Jan 2004 21:40 - 23 of 65

Croc
As a late entry onto this BB I am really impressed with what I have seen so far. Apart from your good and able self there appears to be some bright and interesting players. I hope you will allow a slightly worn old fashioned gut trader to glean some info from you and perhaps contribute something of value in the near future.
Thanks

Crocodile - 18 Jan 2004 22:19 - 24 of 65

Thanks all, Welcome phil and all the new posters to the traders thread,
D,

FASHON - 18 Jan 2004 23:33 - 25 of 65

May I correct a small mistake: Investor's Chronicle (on their website) have Hilton down as a SELL not a buy.

You are a must read every Sunday evening. Thanks a lot.

little woman - 18 Jan 2004 23:54 - 26 of 65

Hi all,

Was going to leave dropping by until before market open (if I remembered to wake up in time!) but as I'm pleased to see all the visitors to this thread (please don't be strangers anymore!)I just had to drop in and say Hi.

Life just wouldn't be the same if this tread was only accessible in the traders room.

Anyone got any thought on BT.A for next week? (I was reading that they aren't hitting targets for getting enough Broadband customers, but I've been told by someone in charge of engineers who install broadband for BT customers, that they cannot cope with the orders they are receiving, so getting more customers is not what they need at the moment!)



ThePlayboy - 19 Jan 2004 07:15 - 27 of 65

MONDAY FTSE PP (DJ CLOSED)

R2 4514
R1 4501
PP 4479
S1 4465
S2 4443

Close was above Fri r1! 2 day ftse chart targeting 4500, unless a break of uptrend at 4475 to 4460! All about Dj 10600/550 for direction imho!

WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4531
R1 4509
PP 4470
S1 4449
S2 4410

For next week if this week has been anything to go by then tricky, volatility down by 40% at least! 3 month uptrend channel lower at 4410 s2/upper 4540 abnove r1, ftse close roughly in the middle, more consolidation next week or was this week the consolidation for a brk? Either target achievable imho for next week, ftse over bought atm so maybe a pullback and rally to the highs, imho a test of 4450 and a touch of at least 4510 for next week!

ThePlayboy - 19 Jan 2004 07:15 - 28 of 65

Updated 1/16 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 1/20
UP Above 10,600
DN Below 10,550

At Resistance
Dow holds at highs, stays beneath key resistance.

From prior commentary, "...The index has now formed a wide trading range, which will likely contain the Dow for a while...A solid upside break through the top of the range and through the key 10,600 level will indicate another advance in the medium term..."
The Dow pushed higher at the Open and stayed near the session highs throughout the day, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. However, the index was never able to break through the clear and solid 10,600 resistance level, seen in 15 and 60 Minute timeframes. The Dow held at this level throughout the session, further defining the clear fulcrum.

Watch 10,600 closely Tuesday, as a move away from this level will likely be swift and powerful. An upside break through it will make for another medium term uptrend, while a downside reversal off it will push the index back toward support at 10,375. A break below 10,550 will likely spark such a reaction.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow is holding beneath the a clear short term resistance level at 10,595, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Use this level as a fulcrum at the Open: Long above, Short below.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market, as none of our entry levels were triggered. We will continue to watch 10,600 up, and will look to enter Shorts below 10,550, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each trended steadily higher today, which each pushing through the upper boundaries of their respective ranges. Look for further upside movement above resistance Tuesday. *

Summary

The Dow held at the highs throughout the session today, but continues to hold just below major resistance at 10,600. An upside break through this level will likely spark a solid upside move, while a reversal will make for weakness. Watch this clear fulcrum Tuesday.


zarif - 19 Jan 2004 07:56 - 29 of 65

morning croc and all.
Cold crispy morning today - hope the stock market is nice warm and friendly to us all today.

rgds
zarif

Douggie - 19 Jan 2004 08:11 - 30 of 65

mornin all

little woman - 19 Jan 2004 08:16 - 31 of 65

Morning all,

zarif, you here early this morning - you don't usually come by until later - are you going to trade UK as US is closed today?


D4F are having problems - this should make it interesting!

little woman - 19 Jan 2004 08:37 - 32 of 65

My D4F account is showing a large open position I don't have and it is now stopping me from doing any deals. What worries me is if I want to close the real open position (only a small one) - it may not let me do it as it could show it as a new deal.

little woman - 19 Jan 2004 08:47 - 33 of 65

I'm really annoyed now - I wanted to go long GSK this morning and couldn't open a position - now up 15+

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 09:04 - 34 of 65

Hi little woman,

My CMC is working fine for a change this morning.
Looks like it's your turn today.

Decided over the weekend to start with a clean slate this
morning. I'm not happy with my performance last week and
I don't want the baggage of a losing position to cloud my
judgement. So I sold the SHEL for a few pence loss this morning
on this bounce up.

Now got a clean slate and nothing to influence or cloud my
decisions. Annoyed that my platform went down on Friday right
after I sold the GSK, they dropped back 5p as I expected but I
was unable to buy them back. Now I feel the same as little woman.

Never mind, 'Dems de Breaks.'

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 09:17 - 35 of 65

My account was showing incorrect longs when I logged
on last night to check out how the updates had gone.

I left it on on for an hour and let it chunter away
to itself and it had sorted itself out by this
morning.

Hope it all comes good for you, it puts doubt in your
mind when stuff is showing incorrectly, and nags away
at you in the back of your mind.
Don't let it stop you thinking straight. The biggest
hurdle in this game is yourself.

Melnibone.

little woman - 19 Jan 2004 09:43 - 36 of 65

My account is currently in deficet - Ironically the position that isn't mine is showing a massive profit - it just with my closing the open position that isn't there, the two added together means I can't trade.

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 09:44 - 37 of 65

I don't know about anyone else, but all the stuff I was
looking at for longs this week has opened up higher and
ran away from me. I don't chase stuff, other folk have profit
to take and it isn't me that they're going to sell it to
when it drops. (Been there, done that, got the teeshirt.)

Looking for shorts instead on retracement profit taking.

Melnibone.

little woman - 19 Jan 2004 09:44 - 38 of 65

The open position that isn't mine is for 75% of the equity I have - that's why its causing problems! Its a pity I can't close it!

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 10:05 - 39 of 65

Give them a call and get it sorted little woman.

If you don't it will waste your day and stop you trading.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 10:13 - 40 of 65

FTSE seems to be settling at R2.

Too early to call direction yet. It should retest 4500 at some
point, but when and from what level?
Floor traders won't make this easy.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 10:18 - 41 of 65

I'm the same Testex. The best option is sometimes to do nothing.
Over-trading when in doubt usually costs me money.

It shouldn't really do much today with the US closed.
Just whipsaw about IMHO.

If the US doesn't plough on above 10600 tomorrow then I
reckon that TP will have got it right and we revisit 4450 on the FTSE.

Melnibone.

ThePlayboy - 19 Jan 2004 10:21 - 42 of 65

Mel-not got much right this morning, -10 looser ftse, shorting gap up as never chase ready to buy dip , turned into one big gap up so far, stuck to my stop loss policy saved me another 17 at teh top!

Stan - 19 Jan 2004 10:23 - 43 of 65

Its'probably me, but is the stockwatch working ok with you lot this morning please?

IanT(MoneyAM) - 19 Jan 2004 10:27 - 44 of 65

Stan,

what exactly is the problem you are getting with stockwatch. The system is working fine at the moment.



Regards

Ian

little woman - 19 Jan 2004 10:30 - 45 of 65

I rang D4F to be told they are aware of the problem and are working on it. The only thing they can offer me is to deal over the phone (which I have to pay for).

The spreads have widened too - on both sides, not just one!

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 10:31 - 46 of 65

TP, we all get it wrong sometimes, look at my miserable
performance last week.

Stick to your winning strategy, as you are doing with your stop loss,
and you'll soon be back on track.

I've no compunction with cutting positions and taking losses
when I've lost the plot. Works out best in the long run, better
than being in self denial like the punters you read about that
lose their entire stake through fear.

Melnibone.

ThePlayboy - 19 Jan 2004 11:01 - 47 of 65

testex on days like today you,ll be up by not trading today, easy to loose on US hols, off out now!

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 11:04 - 48 of 65

Paint, that reminds me, my porch ceiling still needs its last
coat.

Might take this opportunity to get it done and store
up a few browny points with Mrs. Melnibone.

I see we've just had a little squeeze higher.
I wonder if a few Bears went in early and stopped out
when it started to go higher again?

Easy day to lose money, this.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 11:11 - 49 of 65

There's an old saying that says you should never short
a dull market.

Seeing as I've no intention of chasing these longs, that
doesn't leave me a whole lot of options.

Anyone looking at the Ex Divis on Wednesday with a view
to picking some up today or tomorrow?

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 11:23 - 50 of 65

Exactly my own thoughts, Testex.
Chart looks a bit toppy at the mo.

BLND looks even toppier.

See what tomorrow brings I reckon, there's no rush today.

Melnibone.

Stan - 19 Jan 2004 13:37 - 51 of 65

Ian,

All sorted, It was me as i had thought.

I had a plugin missing.

Back to normal now.

Regards

Stan.

little woman - 19 Jan 2004 13:53 - 52 of 65

Still having problems - my statement tonight should be interesting!

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 14:54 - 53 of 65

Still looking at IMT Testex, undecided at the mo.

They keep tracking down cheaper on an up day.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 15:04 - 54 of 65

You've convinced me. Only an hour and a bit left for trading and
anyone buying for the Divi tomorrow morning will push the price
up.

In IMT at 1080.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 15:19 - 55 of 65

Sounds good.

Heard on Bloomberg that Tom. H reckons that the US markets
nearly always go higher the day after a Holiday.

If this is true then all the indices will break to new
highs at these levels and who is going to short the start
of a breakout?

Decided I couldn't be bothered painting the porch ceiling.
Have moved the laptop to the kitchen to monitor the action and am getting my
Brownie Points by doing the ironing. :-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 15:24 - 56 of 65

Interesting, GSK back down to my sell price and SHEL
appears to be doing the same. :-))

Looks like I might be getting back to the market rhythm.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 15:57 - 57 of 65

Well, now there's a thing.

I could now buy back both GSK and SHEL cheaper.

Seeing as I lost the rhythm on these two last week
probably best if I leave them alone.

Got my eye on SBRY again, it's back to the bottom of the
uptrend channel.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 19 Jan 2004 16:27 - 58 of 65

Yep, in profit already and it hasn't even started the
pre-divi buying day yet. :-))

Melnibone.

little woman - 19 Jan 2004 16:31 - 59 of 65

My account is still not right!

little woman - 19 Jan 2004 16:53 - 60 of 65

I have rang the back office, and the said it out of their hands and would get sorted eventually.

azhar - 28 Apr 2005 08:42 - 61 of 65

Down over 40% today. Short term trading, a good opp..

Stan - 28 Apr 2005 09:15 - 62 of 65

I agree, trouble with this one Is finding the bottom...Remember this one has form when It comes to falling prices!

Bye the way we seem to be on the wrong date thread.

babykitcat - 07 Jun 2005 11:24 - 63 of 65

have i missed something but i notice we are going up?

ahoj - 08 Aug 2005 08:56 - 64 of 65

Not many stocks around for the shorters to close. Can it touch 500p when the shorters start to close?

ahoj - 08 Aug 2005 09:13 - 65 of 65

Bid confirmed,
Emergency situation for shorters- Do they know yet?
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