Premarket Futures

FTSE +13

DAX +7

DOW +4

S&P +0.4

Nasdaq +4.5

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London Traders Day 29th January -   Traders Room    Investors Room

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The Dow managed to pick up some steam in late trading Wednesday as investors shifted profits gained on the Nasdaq to cyclical stocks. New home building in the U.S. at record pace, beating forecasts, as housing market refuses to cool. Closing figures : Dow +95 : S&P +8.5 : Nasdaq -6.8 Misys posted a 21 percent fall in first half profits hit by spending cuts at its key banking and financial clients, and said it saw no evidence of an upturn in demand. Profit for the six months to November 30 fell to 44 million pounds from 56 million in the same period a year earlier with analysts' forecasts ranged between 44 million to 46 million pounds. The US Dollar exchange rate did most of the damage. Prudential the UK's second-largest insurer reported a 16 percent fall in full-year new sales figures and said it was cautious about the UK market for the first half of 2004 due to uncertainty over regulatory changes. New business sales for insurance products in 2003 fell to 1.6 billion pounds from 1.918 billion with analysts forecasts of 1.601 billion. Luminar nightclub operator said it was in advanced talks to create a venture to bring gaming facilities to some of its clubs as it reported a slight easing in tough trading over Christmas. Like sales fell three percent in the five weeks to January 4, compared with a four percent decline in the first nine weeks of its second half. Thorntons said like-for-like sales over the Christmas trading period rose 4.6 percent but margins did not meet its expectations. The firm, which said it was still in talks with potential bidders, said total sales increased 4.4 percent to 109.3 million pounds in the 28 weeks to January 10 Stanley Leisure gaming firm posted a 13 percent fall to 21.5 million in first-half profit as some punters enjoyed big wins at its Crockfords Club, but said win margins at the club had recently improved. Analyst forecasts had ranged from 19.2-22.9 million. Enterprise Inns said first quarter pre-tax profit was in line with its expectations after a "buoyant" holiday season in its pubs continued into January N. Brown British home shopping company <warned> that its year profit would be below its expectations after price cutting, postal strike disruption and increased bad debt provisions eroded margins in the second half. Xansa computer services said it would pull out of North America and planned to wrap up its business there by May.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Ashtead Group (I) PBT 10m exp. Enterprise Inns (AGM), Renishaw (I), Stanley Leisure (I) Misys (I) PBT 45.7m exp. Prudential FY Sales 1.6bn exp. Luminar Trading Update St James Place Capital FY Sales Marlborough Stirling Trading Update 11.00 BCC Quarterly Economic Survey	Amgen (Q4), AT&T (Q4), Ford (Q4), Microsoft (I), Eastmen kodak 13.30 US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 17/01) 345k exp. 15.00 US Dec Leading Indicators 0.2% exp.	Nokia (F), SAP AG (F), Siemens (Q1), KLM (Q3) 09.00 EMU Jan ECB Monthly Report

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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R2 4527
R1 4519
PP 4503
S1 4495
S2 4479

Ftse closed above Wed pp after gaining 5.6pts in the auction! 2 day chart more difficult than ever with rangebound action, downward sloping consolidation, range 4485/4520 for Thu? imho! strength if dow holds 10500 tonight!

edit gap up t top of range on open!



Updated 1/21 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 1/22
UP Above 10,650
DN Below 10,590

V-Bottom
Dow rallies sharply off lows, now holding above key resistance.

From prior commentary, "...A downside break from the consolidation at 10,520, seen in the 15 Minute Chart, will likely make for continued downside movement toward the lower boundary of the wide range. On the other hand, an upside break through the top of the consolidation at 10,560 will make for another test of major resistance at 10,600..."
The Dow broke both ways out of the tight consolidation today, as the index broke the lower boundary of the range only to reverse off the lows and plow through the upper boundary later in the session, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The v-bottom off the morning lows sparked a sharp rally that lasted throughout the session and resulted in a 95 point gain for the day.

Looking at the 15 and 60 Minute Charts show that the Dow now rests above the key 10,600 resistance level and may also be forming a higher low above resistance, which is typically a continuation pattern. A break through today's highs at 10,645 will likely extend the upmove into tomorrow's market. Otherwise, a break back below resistance at 10,600 will make for a retracement.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day within the boundaries of a very tight range from 10,595 to 10,645, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. A break from this range will likely spark short term direction tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short this morning at 10,504, but stopped out of the trade with a 20 point loss. We later entered the Dow Long from 10,560 and are still in the position. We will move stops up to 10,595 for tomorrow's market and will want to stay Long above 10,650. Look for Shorts below 10,590, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each rallied off early lows, but the tech-heavy index stayed within its consolidation range, while S&P rallied to new highs. Look for a continuation pattern to form to indicate further strength. *

Summary

The Dow rallied sharply off the session lows, which pushed the index through key resistance at 10,600. Look for continued strength above this level tomorrow. Otherwise, a break back below here will make for another pull-back within the uptrend.

Morning all

STJ out with big figures today,24% rise in business.
some1 posted yesterday re-FT money guide published last year,i e-mailed them to see if they plan to do the same this year,will let you know what they say.

Morning All,

Stockwatch seems not to be working. updating Etc. pre market opening?

Stan,

Can you refresh your browser please?

Ian

Ian,

Prices working fine now, but news is still yesterday's. I Have refreshed.

Regards

Stan.

Stan,

I will take a look into this

Ian

Ian,

Thank You.

Regards

Stan.

Stan,

We are looking into this but problem is if we remove the old news flags then new news flags will come out as well - we are working on a fix for this which should clear the problem before tomorrow.

Apologies for the inconvenience.

Ian

Morning All.

Morning all

Long FTSE & Short DJ

I see a lot of the shares melnibone has been tempted to go back in Long are up already this morning.

Morning all,

Hi little woman, those shares have opened higher without me.:-(

Reaction to the US close looks a little muted to me.
Stuff I'm looking at is starting to drift back again.
As posted last night, still not sure which way this is going.
I can't come to any firm conviction.

Melnibone.

ARE bids moving up

Ian,

Fair enough, I think we can live with that.

Regards

Stan.

TOP STORIES

SIEMENS 1Q NET PROFIT WELL ABOVE HOPES
Profit comes in at EUR726 million, from EUR521 million in year-earlier period on strong handset sales, well above analysts' expectations for EUR661 million. To book EUR800 million in 2Q from sale of Infineon and expects double-digit sales and profit growth in 2004. 1Q sales, at EUR18.3 billion, in line with expectations. Warns on further strengthening of euro against dollar.

SAP NET PROFIT DOUBLES DESPITE 4Q DROP
Net profit for 2003 up to EUR1.1 billion from EUR509 million a year ago despite an 11% drop in 4Q net profit to EUR423 million. Sees software revenues rising 10% in 2004 and pro forma EPS around EUR4.20 to EUR4.30.

NOVARTIS 4Q NET PROFIT UP 14%
To $1.36 billion from $1.19 billion on a 21% rise in sales to $6.73 billion. Expects higher net and operating profit in 2004 and expects to exceed market growth. Doesn&apost see major acquisitions or a takeover of Roche.

KODAK TO CUT UP TO 21% OF STAFF
By end of 2006 and take charges of $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion, in a blueprint the company regards as a painful necessity for its transition to filmless digital imaging. 4Q net income $19 million or 7 a share, from 39 a year earlier.

LVMH REVENUE SLIPS 5.8% IN 2003 ON EURO
But in a bullish trading, the world&aposs biggest luxury company says a strong showing by its traditional earnings powerhouse, the Vuitton leather goods brand, helps it hoist operating profit 7% in 2003.

PARMALAT GROSS DEBT COULD TOP EUR14B
Crisis deepens as people familiar with group estimate its gross debt could be more than EUR14 billion, while the company&aposs operating units could be worth only EUR1 billion-EUR2 billion, the Financial Times reports on its Web site.

SANOFI&aposS 2003 REVENUE UP 8.1%
Rises to EUR8.05 billion in 2003, as sales of its leading cancer drug more than doubles. Stripping out the negative impact of the weak dollar and other currencies, revenue rose 15.6%.

KLM SWINGS TO 3Q NET PROFIT
Of EUR8 million, from EUR66 million loss a year earlier and well above analysts' forecasts for EUR15.3 million loss. Operating profit EUR29 million. Expects clearly positive operating profit in 2003/2004 and sees net approaching break-even.

BANCO POPULAR NET PROFIT RISES 13%
To EUR714.3 million for the full-year, from EUR633.5 million in 2002 and well above analysts' expectations. Total loans for period up 29%, or 19% without the contribution of BNC, boosting net interest income 13% to EUR1.8 billion.

REMY COINTREAU SALES MISS VIEWS
Reports nine-month revenue down 12% to EUR702.9 million, hurt by the weak dollar and poor third-quarter performance, traditionally its busiest period. Analysts had seen sales at EUR724 million.

ITALY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DIVES
Hits lowest level since 1994 in January as Parmalat Finanziaria&aposs insolvency and worries about personal finances weigh on sentiment. Seasonally-adjusted figure at 99, from 105 in December and below expectations for 105.8.

GERMAN 2003 RETAIL SALES FALL AGAIN
Preliminary figures show a fall of 1% on year, marking the second full year that sales have declined. Sales from January to November down 0.8%, with non-food sales falling a real 2.1% and food sales up 1.2%.

MISYS 1H NET PROFIT UP; SALES FALL
Net profit rises 48% to GBP22.3 million, despite sales down 10% to GBP471 million, due to difficult trading conditions in banking software, which it doesn&apost see improving. Reports interim dividend up 15% to 2.44 pence.

FRENCH CONSUMER SPENDING PICKS UP
Household consumption rises 0.2% on month in December as robust purchases of automobiles helps reverse November&aposs 2.6% decline. But analysts had seen a rise of 0.5%.

TOKYO SHARES END DOWN AS TECHS SLIDE
Nikkei 225 Stock Average ends down slightly after an early rally fizzled in the face of profit taking in tech stocks. But the index hangs on to 11000 level by the skin of its teeth.

BIC 4Q REVENUES SLIP 5.7%
To EUR330 million from EUR350 million a year earlier, though up 2% excluding exchange rates. Full year revenue down 8.7% to EUR1.36 billion. Company expects 2003 operating margin to be below the 2002 level.

SCHERING GETS EU ZEVALIN APPROVAL
EU Commission grants marketing approval for Schering&aposs radioimmunotherapy product for the treatment of adult patients with non-Hodgkin&aposs Lymphoma. Company plans to launch the product in Europe within the next few months

PRUDENTIAL APE SALES DOWN 12%
Reports full-year APE insurance sales down to GBP1.6 billion at constant exchange rates. But remains optimistic about Asia and U.S. growth and says that Egg sale discussions are continuing.

ATOS ORIGIN SEES FLAT 2004 REVENUE
On a pro forma basis, although sees market sentiment slowly improving. Company doesn&apost see any significant revenue improvement during 1H, but expects operating margin of newly combined group to be over 7% for the year.

Melnibone

Came across this:

FTSE 100 +0.2% at 4520.2 following last night&aposs robust close on Wall Street. "We are seeing a positive flow of results from heavyweight investment banks and drug companies; people are starting to give up the idea that equities are going to be sold off again while dollar is still weak enough for investors to be buying into American stocks," says Cantor Index, Chris Daly.

Decided to go Long ANL

Thanks for that little woman.

Just shows, no matter how high we think stuff is fully/over
valued, folk will still find reasons to buy. That's why
we get bubbles I suppose.

I won't fight this trend, but I'm deeply suspicious.

Melnibone.

I must admit all my trades are smaller than I would have in the past.

Just realised - I didn't get my D4F statement for yesterday.

Just had a look at IMT and BLND.
They're both back to roughly where they were on Monday
prior to going Ex-Divi on Wednesday.

Perhaps it is easier just to play it simple and take the Divi?

Melnibone.

I remember saying I was going to sell LLOY when it hit 4.75 when it was somewhat lower than it is now. My reasoning - figure plucked out of the air! Look at it now, just passed 4.75 and because it goes ex div (final so the big one) in about 4 weeks I don't want to sell!

I haven't got my D4F statement either, little woman.

Doesn't matter, as long as you keep a record of your trades
and order numbers.

Melnibone.

Record of trades/order numbers? I thought that what the statement for for!

Found a copy of the statment on the trading platform. Printing it as we "speak"

It's always best to keep a record of your order numbers.

If anything screws up, they warn you on the site that any
claim for an incorrect trade on your account will not be
accepted without the order number.

I always keep a written record of orders, dates and time.
Computers have a habit of losing data.
Bi$$y Gates might aspire to God like status, but he 'aint'
quite there yet.:-)

Melnibone.

Still can't get over this price differential between
BP. and SHEL of 84p!

But there again, if memory serves me correctly, I said the
same thing when it was 73p.

This market never ceases to surprise me.

Melnibone.

I keep looking at BT.A, it's one of my favourite
traders, but I've got the feeling that it's currently
in the middle of a 170/190p trading range.

Melnibone.

Looks like Europe is expecting some US profit taking
near the open this afternoon.

Melnibone.

Switched my ANL long to a short, pity I didn't do that with the long FTSE

My short DJ is look really good at the moment

had an answer from the FT they will be repeating the report 31st jan.

Closed ANL - broke even. Doesn't seem to want to do anything.

Will consentrate of FTSE which has pulled back a tiny bit

OST take a look broker says under valued ,mm struggling to keep up with demand
imho
mm

Thanks for that hijeff, will watch out for it.

Melnibone.

Picked up some GSK when the FTSE bounced off 4500.

Melnibone.

Nokia is affecting the Indices, causing volatility.

Market doesn't like its forecasts.

Melnibone.

It keeps testing 4500. What worries me is if it breaks it!

That's always the problem, but if you don't take a chance
and trade at support/resistances when would you ever trade?

As long as your position size is OK and your stops realistic,
then your profits should exceed your losses.

You're still trading, so you must be doing OK. :-)

Melnibone.

little W if it brks it cut ur ftse long and run ur dj short as it will be DJ weakness that will lead the ftse down Voila!

I see what you mean about SHEL/BP. Testex.

Gap is inching wider. It's going up less than BP. on the
up days and dropping more on the down days.

Melnibone.

I see that the 108p level I was talking about yesterday
on LGEN is still proving critical for the stock.

If it doesn't break it and move away the next time, then
I would expect further weakness as Investors look to put
their money into something with more potential.

Melnibone.

The DJ has pulled back a bit, but the FTSE hasn't followed it.

My GSK's have though.:-(

Time to get some chores done.
See you all after the US open.

Melnibone.

John thanks for your EMail as follows regarding THUS. Unfortunately the internal EMail system does not have a return address so I have posted it here.
---------------------
Hi David,
I am still persisting in trying to get some clarification to your post 'Short THUS looking for 20% fall' Traders Thread 20 Jan post 34.
I tried to attract your attention to this on the Traders Thread on the same day, but obviously you had closed down for the day.
May I ask you to give some substantiation to this post as I like many others are long in this company and if you know something that could be of benefit to we 'bulls' and could cause us to change our position would you please let us know.
One line unsubstantiated statements do not help, especially eminating from a writer so respected as yourself.
Regards
John
---------------------
John, I did not know any special information on Thus at that time as I was working on the TA after it had made a negative 123 signal. Also the order book was 'safe' to short with a minimal risk and good potential gain. I nomally do substantiate why I have taken out my trades but was rushed off my feet at the time..
I do hope the price recovers for you!
Regards
David

LONDON--FTSE 100 +0.1% at 4506.

Traders note strong US performance overnight continues to boost sentiment; pharmas and telecoms provide bulk of upwards pressure.

Among corporate newsflow, Prudential slips following a cautious statement on the UK savings market; St James Place FY new business beats expectations.

US initial jobless claims due 1330 GMT; CSFB expects 340k. (SMT)

The DJ is almost back to where it was this morning - pity the FTSE hasn't followed

I decided to add to my DJ short, but it took D4F so longer to respond to my order it had dropped 3 points by the time they tried to place it and of course they wouldn't give me the price I asked for.

Once apon a time GSK & AZN followed each other - but now they seem to go in diff directions.

Been scalping AZN short.

DJ is going up!

Afternoon all,

Trying to log into D4F but it seems dead.

Will go back offline and try a reboot in case there's
something hanging at my end.

Melnibone.

Finally in,

I think they're having tech. problems. Signed me in on
a 'Global' layout rather than my own layout.

With little woman's warning on hanging tickets I'll
be very careful of what positions I take.
If the phone gets tied up due Internet problems you
never know how long it will take to exit a bad position.

Melnibone.

Right, got my sea-legs now.
Had a look at what's going on.
As posted last night on the DOW thread,
it looks to me like S@P 1150 will be the critical level for
all Indices.

Edit: I do of course mean S@p will be critical for Indices advancing.
DOW 10600 is the level to watch for declining Indices. IMHO.

Melnibone.

There she blows..................

I wonder if the FTSE will go up after the auction?

I think that some traders are expecting the US to push
higher this evening after some profit taking and position
squaring this afternoon.

All will be revealed by 2100 Hrs. ;-)

I found that when scalping this afternoon that the tickets were
getting filled OK with no delays.

Did yours settle down OK?

Melnibone.

Picked up some SHEL at the death again.
(Sorry Testex, cant resist 'em when 360p breaks) :-)

FTSE is already close to the top of the old uptrend channel,
so even if we go down it shouldn't be too much unless the
US crashes.

Hoping for the US to strengthen this evening and give the
FTSE some positive impetus tomorrow back towards 4500.

I can't read anything definate in the bar chart at the moment,
so I'm taking each day as it comes and buying weakness looking
for a pop up at sometime during the next session.

Melnibone.

LONDON--FTSE 100 ends -34.4 points, or -0.8% lower at 4476.8 amid provisional market volume of 3.7B shares. Pharmas lead gainers thanks to some upbeat earns from European peers Sanofi, Novartis, retailers also perk up on the heels of Somerfield update. Heavyweight oils sink as do insurers as investors express disappointment that Prudential update had no details concerning Egg unit divestment. Trader says despite Thu&aposs lackluster session, uptrend remains in place. Adds investors happy to park money in equities although some clients beginning to adopt short positions given how far market has come of late. AstraZeneca ends +2.2%, Diageo +1.9%, Somerfield +6.5%, Prudential -2.2%. (TRF)

Might see a rise on Misys in the morning, close to 1,00000 shares unfilled in the auction at 220

I'm still short DJ, but added & closed making 20+ each time. So whats left will cover me even if it goes up. And if it goes down - then it's a plus!

Croc - I have to admit to shorting MSY when you mentioned it and was very pleased with the results.

230!