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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 2nd February (BAA)
Crocodile - 01 Feb 2004 11:54
| UK PreMarket Futures | FTSE +7 | DAX +5 | DOW +10 | S&P +1.4 | Nasdaq +3 |
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More cases of 'Bird Flu' drive Hong Kong stocks lower: Analysts predicting the FTSE 100 will continue to fall from January highs as investors await a likely interest rate hike and eye results from Shell. BAA airports operator posted a one percent rise in operating profit to 500 million pounds for the nine months compared to analysts expecting 492 million. Sales rose by 3.5 percent to 1.54 billion pounds and they said airlines confidence and a solid economy would underpin strong passenger growth. December traffic hit a record. Securicor said it was in talks over a nil-premium merger with Danish rival Group 4. The merged business would be listed in both London and Copenhagen. Filtronic maker of wireless telecoms components reported first-half profits of 2.2 million pounds well above market forecasts of 0.8 million.Rio Tinto the world's second largest miner, said its second-half profit fell 10.5 percent as strong China demand was offset by weak coal earnings and a rising Australian dollar. Profit fell to $741 million from $828 million a year earlier compared with an average analyst forecast, excluding a gain from the sale of its 50 percent interest in Indonesia's Kaltim Prima Coal. |
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BAA (Q3, 9M) 478-507m exp. Filtronic (H1), Rio Tinto (F) Net $1.3-1.5bn exp. Ex date of Granada and Carlton merger to form ITV, Bookham takes Carlton Comms place within the FTSE Mid 250 09:30 Jan manufacturing PMI, 56.0 prev. |
13:30 Dec consumption NA, 0.5% exp. 13:30 Dec consumption real, 0.5% prev. 13:30 Dec personal income, 0.1% exp. 15:00 Dec construction spending, 0.6% exp. 15:00 Jan ISM manufacturing, 64.3 exp. |
09:00 Jan manufacturing PMI, 52.9 exp. |
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Crocodile - 01 Feb 2004 11:55 - 2 of 48
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BAA (Q3, 9M) 478-507m exp. Filtronic (H1), Rio Tinto (F) Net $1.3-1.5bn exp. Ex date of Granada and Carlton merger to form ITV, Bookham takes Carlton Comms place within the FTSE Mid 250 09:30 Jan manufacturing PMI, 56.0 prev. |
13:30 Dec consumption NA, 0.5% exp. 13:30 Dec consumption real, 0.5% prev. 13:30 Dec personal income, 0.1% exp. 15:00 Dec construction spending, 0.6% exp. 15:00 Jan ISM manufacturing, 64.3 exp. |
09:00 Jan manufacturing PMI, 52.9 exp. | ||||||
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Amvescap (F), BOC (Q1), Carpetright (Trading) Capital Radio, Chrysalis, Imperial Tobacco (AGMs) Ex date of Wolseley ADR Stock Spilt, Terms are 3 shares for every 2 held |
13:30 Car & truck sales, 5.8m, 9.10m prev. 15:00 Jan layoffs, 93.02 prev. |
11:00 Dec PPI m/m, 0.1% prev. 11:00 Dec PPI y/y, 1.4% prev. 11:00 Jan unemployment, 8.8% prev. | ||||||
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British Airways (Traffic) Mm02 (Q3 KPIs), Scottish Power (Q3) 09:30 Jan services PMI, 58.5 prev.
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International Paper (Q4), Boston Scientific (Q4),Cisco (Q2), Sprint (Q4), Colgate-Palmolive (Q4), Tyco (Q1), Chubb (Q4), Mattell (Q4), Anheuser Busch (Q4), Allstate (Q4), Pixar (Q4),Northrup Grumman (Q4) 15:00 Dec durable goods R 15:00 Dec factory orders, 1.3% exp. 15:00 Jan non manufacturing ISM, 59.8 exp. |
DaimlerChrysler (F), France Telecom (Turnover) Henkel (F), AXA (Turnover), Nexans (F) Wella (EGM) Ixos Software (Q2), Infogrammes (9M) 09:00 Jan services PMI, 57.0 exp. 11:00 Jan flash HICP y/y, 2.05% exp. | ||||||
Ex Dividend: Carpetright Plc (17), Computerland Plc (1.35), Coral Products Plc (1.05), DS Smith PLC (2.8), Electra Kingsway VCT PLC (0.9), First Technology Plc (3.5), Fletcher King Plc (0.3), Fountains plc (1.92), Halladale Group Plc (0.7), Hardys & Hansons Plc (11.5), IFX Group PLC (0.25), Latchways Plc (3.18), NHP Plc (2.25), Smith WH Plc (0.742868), Somerfield Plc (0.6), SSL International Plc (3.9), Victrex Plc (5.3), Warner Estate Holdings Plc (8.25), Widney Plc (0.5), Wyndeham Press Group Plc (1.5) | ||||||||
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GWR (Q4), ICI (F) PBT 282-342m exp. Shell (Q4) Adj net $1.9bn exp. Signet (Q4), Smith & Nephew (F), Lonmin (AGM) 12:00 BOE rate announcement, 4% exp. |
13:30 Weekly Jobless Claims 13:30 Q4 labour costs, 0.3% exp. |
11:00 Nov retail sales m/m, y/y, 0.5%, 0.0% prev. 12:45 ECB rate announcement, 2.0% prev. 13:30 Q4 Productivity, 2.6% exp. 13:30 ECB press conference | ||||||
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EasyJet (Traffic) Expected ex date of offer by Kaytern Plc for Jarvis Hotels |
Cigna Corp (Q4), Electronic Data Systems (Q4), Cooper Tire & Rubber (Q4), AutoNation (Q4), PepsiCo (Q4) 13:30 Jan average earnings, 0.2% exp. 13:30 Jan average working week, 33.7 hrs prev. 13:30 Jan Non farm payrolls, 150k exp. 13:30 Jan unemployment, 5.7% exp. |
Sagem (F), Deutsche Bank (F), EPCOS (Q1), Schering (F), BNP (F), Business Objects (F), Dassault Systems (F), Alcatel (F), Aventis (F), Pernod (Turnover), Lagardere (Turnover) Vinci (Turnover), Clarins (Turnover), AGF (Turnover) |
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| Provisional Calendar For The Week Following 19th - 23rd January | ||||||||
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Pace Micro Technology (I) Photo-Me International (I) Albemarle & Bond (I), Diagonal Group (F), Royalblue (F) (09:30) Dec Industrial Production (09:30) Dec house price survey (09:30) Jan PPI
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Inter Link Foods (I), Galen Holdings (I) Alphameric (F), Bookham Technology (F) BP (F), Brandon Hire (F), Bwd Secs. (F), Quantica (F) (09:30) UK Dec Trade |
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Dixons (I), London Scottish Bank (F), Antisoma (I), BSkyB (I) Electric Word (F), Liberty International (F) (10:30) BoE Quarterly Inflation Report (09:30) Jan/Dec Labour Market Report |
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HMV (I), Alumasc Group (I), Rolls-Royce (F) Barclays (F), London Bridge Software (F) (09:30) UK Q4 housebuilding data |
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| Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead - Sunday 1st Febrary |
An interesting week ahead with four FTSE 100 companies reporting including Shell, BA, ICI and Smith & NephewMondayBAA is set to report a slight decline in pre-tax profits to 440m for the three months to 31 December. Despite higher passenger numbers through its seven UK terminals, including a 6.2% increase last month, have its results are expected to reflect higher staff and maintenance costs. Rio Tinto, the surge in commodity and base metal prices should have boosted profits during the second half of 2003 but analysts expect the mining group to post a 12% decline in full-year profits to 1.17bn. This is due to the strength of the Australian dollar where the company generates around 60% of its earnings and 45% of its operating costsTuesday Amvescap is due to unveil full-year figures but attention expected will focused on the US mutual funds scandal. The fund manager will reveal the damage done to its reputation from the US Invesco unit Wednesday Scottish Power is expected to cut quarterly dividend payments by 34% when it reports on trading during the last three months matching similar reductions in the two previous quarters. Operating profits are forecast to show a 2.2% decline to 310m following lower generation and supply profits due to higher gas costs and flat profits from its Power Systems and Pacificorp arms mmO2 with its third-quarter subscriber numbers Thursday ICI Investors will be hoping for good news form the Quest flavours and fragrance division of ICI when they release final results. Quest was one of the causes of last March's profits warning by ICI. If they fail to show any improvements the city may well give the company a hard time. Analysts are expecting the group to report that it has had a strong end to the year and expects them to turn in profits of 326m, against 400m previously. Shell is expected to report a 3% drop in production growth when it posts full-year and fourth-quarter results. The company is predicted to report full-year and fourth-quarter profits of $2.83bn, against $2.78bn but attention will be on news of the recent reclassification of 20% of its reserves base. UK Interest rate rise on the cards with the Bank of England's interest rates decision out on Thursday. Smith & Nephew medical devices is likely to please investors by reporting profits up to 234m against 210m previously but the weakness of the US dollar is believed likely to have had a 20m negative impact on the group. Friday EasyJet reports January traffic figures on Friday and after Ryam Airs warning investors will take some convincing that the growth story can be maintained. RYA's shares fell 30% in a day after it said yield have come under pressure as a result of ruthless pricing competition.
Thoughts It was good to meet so many of you at the London traders meeting last week and a big disappointment that the weather stopped nearly 100 people from attending. For the last 3 weeks I have been following Intraday Day charting to show how it gives me guidance on the market direction for the day ahead. Certainly the FTSE has been very well behaved and remained in a very clear & well defined 45 point wide downtrend. To some extent this is a shame as I wanted to highlight how trading systems switch from 1 support to the next and how easy it is to make use of that knowledge. Downtrend: In a downtrend as in the chart any fall below the support is a good BUY point for the FTSE or tracker stocks. This works really well shortly after market open when the futures predict a sharp fall on the FTSE and it then predicts a reversal and how strong it will be! More caution has to be used when the index breaks through the resistance line as it did last Wednesday when it could possibly have been the start of a new uptrend. Then SELLS work but are more risky especially when they have previously broken the resistance 4 times before. Uptrend: It is the opposite with an uptrend when I am happy to SHORT the market when the FTSE opens the day well above the resistance line. But I am equally cautious when it fall through support as again it could signal a break in the trend. The 'blobs' and 'lines' do make it easy to draw this type of trend lines on Intraday charts and often they will not correspond to the trend lines drawn by charting packages. I find they highlight the buy/sell points used by computer trading systems with far more accuracy. These trading systems often reverse the market at exactly the same point where traders become confident in the market direction. This can lead to the Paranoia that the city is waiting to personally catch them out! Looking towards next week it looks like the FTSE should open lower than the current support so I will be looking for a rise on the market Monday or Tuesday. However I am still looking for further falls for the week ahead. As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead! David David@SnappyTrader.com www.SnappyTrader.com All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. None of this report should be construed as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any security, investment or derivative. Please do your own research.
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Crocodile - 01 Feb 2004 11:55 - 3 of 48
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Headlines Sunday 1st February Household borrowing slumped last month in the first sign that higher interest rates have dampened consumers' appetite for debt. THE US economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2003 to just half the growth rate of the previous three months, underlining the still-fragile nature of the global recovery. UK Interest rate rise on the cards with the Bank of England's interest rates decision out on Thursday. HBOS yesterday denied it was going on the acquisition trail Down Under as it announced plans to integrate its Australian operations British Airways was locked in talks with airport operator BAA yesterday regarding possible compensation for the disruption caused by this week's snow. Legal & General, Norwich Union, Zurich Life and HBoS, owner of Clerical Medical have been warned to speed up their handling of mortgage endowment* mis-selling* complaints or face massive fines from the FSA |
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| SUNDAY TIMES Greencore in UK bread sale Incisive will take Numis to the FSA Teachers in bid for the Wharf Glaxos Garnier says non to a deal with Aventis Vodafone chief faces a tough call in America Eircom counts cost of threat to line rentals Group 4's Danes to swoop on Securicor Carlton, Granada ITV faces new threat from 'quiet assassin' |
Kerry Group hit by ban on Thai chicken imports National Grid Transco Directors' Deals: Grid boss sees profits in the pipeline Agenda: William Lewis: Why Group 4 should not let Securicor escape Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Ffyffes? Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Marshalls? And Finally ... Brothers-in-law go for pot luck with Royal Doulton Cadbury finished eclair |
| SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Invensys in share issue talks Parker quits race for BAE chair LSE to examine Incite share sale Chorion to buy Mr Men rights Manchester United Ferguson under pressure |
NSB retail thrills and spills Why Ferguson should give in gracefully to the galloping Irish Bodyguards for Magnier family as Man Utd fans are blamed for threats National Grid Transco Parker quits race for BAE chair |
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OBSERVER Shell investors will spare Watts if they get reforms Carlton, Granada Better news will make a better ITV Eddington: BA will bounce back in 2004 Ritblat junior to succeed father at British Land Invensys in 500m rights issue this week Amvescap News in brief |
Vodafone Be bold in the US, Mr Sarin BA's Rod is reborn as big wheel in City Watkins next in firing line at Manchester Utd Vodafone plots $30bn bid for US mobile firm WH Smith Is it a Swann song for fat cats? |
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MAIL ON SUNDAY War erupts at Manchester Utd, Furious Ferguson calls in police Rate rise slashes borrowing, Smallest increase for three years Analysts see good reception for ITV |
US Stocks fall as growth rate slows Allen heralds ITV channel 3, Aiming for older, affluent audience |
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Bookham Technology, set to replace Carlton in the FTSE 250, added 18 1/2p to 173 1/2p with volume running at 3.5m as tracker funds began to buy. |
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INDEPENDENT HSBC The Week Ahead: French drug battle fixates on figures BAA The Week Ahead: French drug battle fixates on figures |
Granada / Carlton The new ITV wakes up to reality |
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SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Manchester United Horse trader cracks the whip Shell Oil reserves issue could mean shell shock for investors Scottish & Newcastle to cut 500 jobs |
M&S pressed to appoint new clothing head Aviva plans to sell former GA base in 300m strategy |
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INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy - L&G (LGEN), 4Imprint (FOUR), Peter Hambro (POG), Computerland (CPU) and Metnor (MTG).Sell - Daily Mail & General (DMGO).Tip Updates: Clarkson (CKN) (fairly priced), British Land (BLND) (good value), Kewill (KWL) (good value), Mears (MER) (buy), Tertiary Minerals (TYM) (buy). |
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SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy - Peterhouse (PHS), NSB Retail (NSB) and Trans Siberian Gold (TSG).Plays Updates: Hold - Ryanair (RYA), Sell - Centurion Electronics (CUC).The Analysis Section: Forget the house: put your money in the builder. |
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washlander
- 01 Feb 2004 12:36
- 4 of 48
hijeff - 01 Feb 2004 13:13 - 5 of 48
ThePlayboy
- 01 Feb 2004 14:50
- 6 of 48
Key DOW Levels for 2/2
UP Above 10,535
DN Below 10,400
Still Consolidating
Dow continues sideways within consolidation
From prior commentary, "...As we mentioned yesterday, markets tend to consolidate after a large move in order to digest prior activity. The index will likely continue to consolidate before a new breakout occurs..."
The Dow traded sideways the entire session, further developing the clear consolidation that has formed from 10,420 to 10,525, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The fact that the Dow has formed a consolidation at the lows after breaking a major trend line to the downside implies weakness.
A downside break from the consolidation is the most likely scenario. Watch 10,400, as a break here will likely unleash another solid decline. Otherwise, an upside break from the consolidation at 10,525 will make for another push higher within the wide, volatile range that has formed at the highs of the 60 Minute Chart. Either way, a break from this consolidation will indicate future direction.
Short Term Dow
Short term, we will watch the consolidation boundaries in the 5 Minute Chart, which span from 10,450 to 10,525. Watch for a break from this range for direction at the Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still Short the Dow from 10,660 and will move stops down to 10,530 to lock in a bit more profit. We will stay Short below 10,400 and will look for Longs above 10,535, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each traded sideways within their respective ranges today, further forming consolidations at the lows. Look for further range movement until a break occurs. *
Summary
The Dow continues to trade sideways within the tight consolidation, which has formed at the lows. A downside break is the most likely scenario, but a break either way will make for a solid move. Watch 10,400 down, and 10,535 up.
ThePlayboy
- 01 Feb 2004 14:51
- 7 of 48
R2 4451
R1 4421
PP 4406
S1 4375
S2 4360
Fri close was below s1 after loosing 4.3pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart targeting 4370 unless we get a brk out of the downtrend at 4405 to target 4420, all down to 10480 dow for direction imho!
MONDAY FUTURES PP
R2 4441
R1 4416
PP 4389
S1 4364
S2 4337
WEEKLY FTSE PP
R2 4484
R1 4437
PP 4414
S1 4367
S2 4344
Caught on the wrong side Fri long looking for short closing into weekend, instead got longs panicking closing and shorts comfortable to hold, a sign for next week? Major 10 month uptrend is now broken at 4420, ftse is looking a litte OS atm, so maybe some defensve by the bulls, but on the whole I,m quite bearish for next week, 10375 the level to watch on the dow to try and hold any longer term moves next week, feel we could test the weekly s2 at 4344 imho next week!
Melnibone - 01 Feb 2004 16:35 - 8 of 48
As posted by Croc and TP, Ftse does look bearish at the moment.
BOE rates decision and Friday US employment No.s may be the market
movers this week. If the US disappoints again, especially after Snow's
comments, there could be a big drop on the US markets.
I'm looking for a possible bounce to 4420/30 and then, depending on the US,
a drop back to retest 4380. If 4380 fails earlier enough in a day, or the
US falls after the FTSE closes near 4380, then the swing low at 4330
will need to be tested. The breaking of the 4430 swing low may signal
a trend change.
Rumours in Sunday press again that Standard Life is still off-loading
shares.
Be careful getting too Bearish, look at this chart and see what happened
the last few times we got a retracement. In September for instance, the
Index rose 200 points in 3 days. I think that it would be wiser to follow
it down building a position in increments whilst moving take profits
stops down with the market action.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 01 Feb 2004 18:58 - 9 of 48
| X | O | 4500 | |||||||||||
| X | O | ||||||||||||
| X | O | 4400 | |||||||||||
| X | |||||||||||||
| X | X | 4300 | |||||||||||
| X | O | X | |||||||||||
| X | X | O | X | 4200 | |||||||||
| X | O | X | O | X | |||||||||
| O | X | O | X | O | 4100 | ||||||||
| O | X | O | X | ||||||||||
| O | X | X | O | 4000 | |||||||||
| O | X | O | X | ||||||||||
| O | X | O | X | 3900 | |||||||||
| O | O | X | X | ||||||||||
| O | X | O | X | 3800 | |||||||||
| O | X | O | X | ||||||||||
| O | X | X | O | X | 3700 | ||||||||
| O | X | O | X | O | |||||||||
| O | X | O | X | 3600 | |||||||||
| O | X | O | X | ||||||||||
| O | O | X | 3500 | ||||||||||
| O | X | ||||||||||||
| O | X | 3400 | |||||||||||
| O | X | ||||||||||||
| O | 3300 | ||||||||||||
| 3200 |
Crocodile - 01 Feb 2004 20:31 - 10 of 48
Also looks like the editor worked!
Regards
D.
josey wales - 02 Feb 2004 00:31 - 11 of 48
Crocodile - 02 Feb 2004 07:41 - 12 of 48
Josey the AM Traders room thread is much busier than the premium BB on ADVFN with approx 300 post a day. However the Investors room now has about 50 a day and growing but is still quieter than ADVFN's
D,
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 08:31
- 13 of 48
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 09:07
- 14 of 48
I have a long FTSE and a long DJ as I have to do some work today, so have decided not to trade otherwise. So far this morning the long DJ is up 8x the FTSE and the US isn't even open! I think that say's it all!
Melnibone - 02 Feb 2004 09:39 - 15 of 48
Terrible problems connecting to CMC via MarketMaker and
Deal4FreeLite web version.
Currently conversing with CMC helpdesk and sending all sorts
of Ping and Ports test results to them. They seem to know
what they are talking about so hopefully it will get sorted
soon.
Will keep you up to date.
Rgds Melnibone.
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 09:45
- 16 of 48
stockbunny
- 02 Feb 2004 12:02
- 17 of 48
of a new era for the TV companies!
Watching ALN today - to cash the gain or to not cash the gain
this is my dilemma this Monday (lol)
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 13:03
- 18 of 48
BRUSSELS--European stocks rose in midday trading Monday, as manufacturing data indicated the economic recovery is continuing. HVB lifted banking stocks in Frankfurt amid takeover speculation.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, which tracks Europes 600 largest listed companies, rose 0.4% to 236.75. The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index, which tracks companies in countries that joined the common currency, rose 0.6% to 252.37.
The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index gained 0.6% to 2857.0, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index rose 0.3% to 2703.2.
In London, the FTSE-100 Share Index gained 0.3% to 4404.3. The U.K. January purchasing managers index was unchanged from December, at a four-year high of 56.0.
The oil sector was buoyed as Cairn Energy jumped 18% after offering further details of its oil find in Rajasthan.
Securicor gained 3.3% on news that it is in talks to merge with Denmarks Group4 Falck in a deal that values the U.K. security company at more than $1.1 billion. Group4 shares gained 5% in Copenhagen.
Trading in shares of British broadcaster ITV began on the London Stock Exchange, with shares in the newly merged broadcaster debuting 141 pence and rising to 143.5 pence in brisk trading.
Marconi gained 1.5% after Credit Suisse First Boston raised its price target for the stock.
Cigarette maker Gallaher rose 1.3% after CSFB raised is rating on the stock to neutral, saying it provides probably the highest degree of forecast certainty in the sector.
Engineering and industrial-processes company Invensys rose 14% on continued speculation it is planning a 500 million rights issue.
In Frankfurt, the Xetra Dax Index rose 0.6% to 4083.17.
HVB Group gained 2.2%, on reports in the U.K. that Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays plan an HVB takeover. "We do not think that this speculation is realistic," said Merck Fincks Konrad Becker. HVB was unavailable to comment. Barclays reiterated it has said it would look at European opportunities. RBOS wouldn't buy HVB because it doesn&apost fit with RBOS's stated strategy, said a source close to the bank. RBOS rose 0.6% in London.
In Madrid, Spain&aposs second-largest bank, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, fell 1% after announcing it has launched a EUR3.3 billion offer for the 41% it doesn't already own of its Mexico unit Grupo Financiero BBVA Bancomer SA. The bank also posted a 30% rise in 2003 net profit on a strong domestic lending business and lower bad loan provisions.
Footwear company Puma jumped 4.3% after Sal. Oppenheim raised the stock to "strong buy", saying its 2003 earnings Friday "contained a major positive surprise in order backlog growth," which increased to 27% from 17% in the third quarter.
In Paris, the CAC-40 Index advanced 1% to 3672 as financial stocks pulled higher amid hopes for strong fourth-quarter updates.
Societe Generale rose 2.7%, AXA rose 2.3% and BNP Paribas gained 2.3%.
Computing services company Cap Gemini rose 4% amid talk that Smith Barney rates the stock at "buy." Smith Barney wasn&apost available for comment.
France&aposs manufacturing sector recorded its highest level of activity for 18 months in January, according to a survey of purchasing managers published by CDAF/Reuters Monday. The French manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose for the fourth consecutive month.
In Zurich, Adecco gained 3% after Pictet raised the stock to "buy" following the company&aposs statement Friday that its accounting probe so far has unveiled only minor bookkeeping errors. Adecco gained 14% Friday.
In currency markets, the euro was almost flat against the dollar, at $1.2456 compared with $1.2453 late Friday in New York. The pound was also unmoved, at $1.8221, compared with $1.8213.
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 13:59
- 19 of 48
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 14:01
- 20 of 48
"The debt subject to limit is estimated to increase to $7.464 trillion by the end of 2004, which is more than the present statutory debt limit of $7.384 trillion," the Administration said in its newly-issued fiscal 2005 budget.
Fiscal year 2004 ends Sept. 30.
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 14:07
- 21 of 48
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 14:20
- 22 of 48
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 14:29
- 23 of 48
"FTSE March futures low traded was 4274.0 at a time of 14:04"
I'm not very good at understanding the obvious at times - but I presume I am right in thinking this is not a good sign!
stockbunny
- 02 Feb 2004 14:30
- 24 of 48
FTSE looking slightly better now than 10-15 mins ago...
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 14:31
- 25 of 48
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 14:37
- 26 of 48
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 14:40
- 27 of 48
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 14:41
- 28 of 48
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 14:46
- 29 of 48
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 14:49
- 30 of 48
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 14:50
- 31 of 48
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 14:54
- 32 of 48
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 14:56
- 33 of 48
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 14:57
- 34 of 48
By Bennett A. McDowell
Many trading systems and just about all opinions of market direction attempt to forecast the market. Whether one uses fundamental or technical analysis, if an opinion is being generated, you are attempting to forecast the market. Some use Elliott Wave theory, some rely on P/E ratios but the overall purpose is to estimate where prices will be at some point in the future. As traders and human beings we will always have opinions and ideas based on our beliefs about what we have experienced. No matter how hard we try not to have opinions, we just can't seem to help having them.
How we use these opinions, forecasts, and beliefs is important. Where the markets are concerned, the first thing to realize is that all opinions or forecasts about the markets are nothing more than fantasies. At the moment a forecast is formed, it's reality does not exist.
With this said, do we want to just trade fantasies? Obviously not! Then how can we use forecasts to help us in trading, instead of hurting us? These are important questions. Here are some examples and analogies of how forecasts can help or hurt us.
Example One: Let's say you believe the forecast generated by an Elliott Wave theory indicating that stock XYZ is about to begin a trend up. Even the MACD is indicating positive divergence. You say to yourself, "A no-brainier, I'll buy here and wait". Another week goes by and instead of beginning its up-trend, XYZ stock goes lower. You say to yourself, "I entered this trade too early, but I BELIEVE it will head up very soon", so you hold on another week.
Next week the stock goes lower, and now you are worried. The MACD bullish divergence is still present and the Elliott Wave forecast remains the same, but it looks like it is heading down for one last time, a shake out. You think to yourself, "Can't go much lower". The next day the stock plummets, you panic and sell out your position and scratch your head saying, "How could that happen"? It happens all the time to traders relying on the forecast and not the actual market!!!
In this example, the trader held on to his fantasy based on his forecast. His faith in the forecast leads him to avoid using a stop-loss. This is typical for traders locked in to this type of forecast trading. After all, their ego is involved here, too.
Let's take the same example and show how to use the forecast to our advantage. Instead of just buying the stock outright based on it's positive forecast, we wait until the stock shows signs of actually reversing it's trend down. We feel based on our forecast that this stock will turn around soon but the current reality indicates that it is not happening now.
By not purchasing the stock and waiting for the price of the stock to show signs of actual strength, we are "Trading The Market And Not The Forecast."
However, we are using the forecast to get ready and to keep this stock in our lists of possibilities.
Look at forecasts to help round out your trading. It is another trading tool in you can use. Use this analogy as a way to think of forecasts. Let's say you are planning a sailing trip for the day. You check the weather forecast and it is not good with heavy rain and wind expected. You have a great boat, you're an experienced sailor, so off you go. As you leave the dock, the weather is perfect. It is sunny with light winds. Now I ask you, even though the forecast is for very heavy rain and heavy winds, would you wear your rain gear now or wait until conditions change? I think most of us would wait until conditions actually change. You would also set the sails of the boat to the current weather conditions and winds and not the forecasted conditions which may or may not even happen. If you put up small storm sails now you will not be able to sail the boat in the current light air conditions. As weather conditions change, you change along with the weather!
The sailor in this example would use the forecast to be PREPARED for a possibility of bad weather by bringing rain gear and the proper sails and crew. It is the same with trading! Whatever the forecast is, take note but trade with the current conditions and be ready if conditions change. In other words, "Trade the Market, Not the Forecast!" Or maybe another way of looking at it is to "Live In The Present And Not The Future Or The Past!
When trading the "Realities" of the market, it is also important to trade within the "Realities" of your risk capital. Implementing sound money management encompasses many techniques and skills intertwined by the trader's judgment. All three of these ingredients must be in place before the trader is said to be using a money management program along with their trading. Failure to implement a good money management program will leave the trader subject to the deadly "risk-of-ruin" exposure leading eventually to a probable equity bust.
Whenever I hear of a trade making a huge killing in the market on a relatively small or average trading account, I know the trader was most likely not implementing sound money management. In cases such as this, the trader more than likely exposed themselves to obscene risk because of an abnormally high "Trade Size." In this case, the trader or gambler may have gotten lucky, leading to a profit windfall. If this trader continues trading in this manner, probabilities indicate that it is just a matter of time before huge losses dwarf the wins, and/or eventually lead to a probable equity bust or total loss.
Whenever I hear of a trader trading the same number of shares or contracts on every trade, I know that this trader is not calculating their maximum "Trade Size." If they where, then the "Trade Size" would change from time to time when trading.
In order to implement a money management program to help reduce your risk exposure, you must first believe that you need to implement this sort of program. Usually this belief comes after having a few large losses that cause enough psychological pain that you want and need to change. You need to understand how improper "Trade Size" actually will hurt your trading.
Novice traders tend to focus on the trade outcome as only winning and therefore do not think about risk. Professional traders focus on the risk and take the trade based on a favorable outcome. Thus, "The Psychology Behind 'Trade Size'" begins when you believe and acknowledge that each trade's outcome is unknown when entering the trade. Believing this makes you ask yourself, "How much can I afford to lose on this trade and not fall prey to the "risk-of-ruin" outcome"?
When traders ask themselves that, they will then either adjust their "Trade Size" or tighten their stop-loss before entering the trade. In most situations, the best method it to adjust your "Trade Size" and set your stop-loss based on market dynamics like we teach here in "Applied Reality Trading ".
During "draw-down" periods, risk control becomes very important and since good traders test their trading systems, they have a good idea of the probabilities of how many consecutive losses in a row can occur. Taking this information into account allows the trader to further determine the appropriate risk percentage to take on each trade.
Most trading systems use a "Moving Average" to base trading decisions, especially trade exits. "Moving Averages" are usually derivatives of price and therefore do not represent the natural "Truth" of the market. Furthermore, "man-made" derived moving averages can be adjusted with variables such as simple vs. compounded, and are subject to alterations based on opinions and prone to subjectivity. Thus, I do not recommend using them as primary entry and exit signals because they do not represent the true realities of the market. Instead use an objective based trading approach to tell me when to exit the market! In addition, most trading systems that use moving averages to exit trades tend to "whip-saw" the trader in and out of trades too often!
Below is a chart illustrating how we use a "Reality-Based" trading system to trade the Reality of the market. When analyzing the chart, notice how the triangular shapes on the chart called "Pyramid Trading Points " capture the Reality of the market as it is unfolding. Both trade entries and exits are set based on price activity and not arbitrarily set by the trader. This is important because we want to enter and exit the market based on market reasons or "Market Truths".
This is a chart of the E-Mini (ES H4 contract) on a one-minute intraday time frame.
So, while it is fine to have an opinion as to market direction, it is best to base your trade entry and exit decisions on "Market Truths". Trade the realities of the market as the market unfolds and see if dealing with reality delivers a better result!
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 15:02
- 35 of 48
prodman - 02 Feb 2004 15:05 - 36 of 48
Next chairman David Jones sells 200,267 shares
LONDON (AFX) - Next PLC, the fashion retailer, said chairman David Jones
last week sold more than 200,000 shares in the company.
On Jan 28, he sold 175,000 shares at 1288 pence a share and 25,267 at 1290pence.
The disposals will have netted Jones about 2.6 mln stg before dealing costs.
At 2.49 pm, shares in Next were down 17 pence at 1269.
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 15:44
- 37 of 48
DENVER (AP)--As Colorado struggles with crippling drought, lawmakers and others are beginning to scrutinize electrical generating plants, which sucked up 21 billion gallons in 2001.
"Power plants are just water hogs," said Matt Baker, executive director of Environment Colorado, a chief proponent of renewable energy. The plants produce energy by heating water into steam that turns giant turbines and cranks out electricity. Environmental groups say it's time for utilities to switch to wind power.
House Speaker Lola Spradley, R-Beulah, introduced legislation to boost the amount of electricity investor-owned utilities get from renewable energy by at least one-half of 1% each year from 2005 through 2020. Power plants in eight Western states pulled 650 million gallons of water a day from rivers, reservoirs or aquifers in 2000, according to "The Last Straw," a study by Western Resource Advocates. The Boulder-based policy and law center favors alternative energy use.
It takes about three-fifths of a gallon of water to produce one kilowatt-hour of electricity, enough to burn a 100-watt light bulb for 10 hours.
Most of that water is lost to steam and pollution, according to "The Last Straw," which is widely cited in the statehouse debate over shifting more of the state's energy load to renewable energy.
Currently, less than 1% of the state's annual power supply comes from renewable resources such as wind and sun.
Xcel Energy (XEL), the state's largest electricity provider, supported a similar Spradley bill last year. That measure was approved by the House and died in the Senate.
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 16:06
- 38 of 48
Melnibone - 02 Feb 2004 16:17 - 39 of 48
Finally connected again, but a little late to do anything today.
What this has shown me is that I maybe need another account as a
back-up when one account goes down.
After using normal brokers previously, I've got quite used to paying
no commision or stamp duty trading Cfd's with CMC. So it looks like
I'll have to find a spread-betting account somewhere.
I've been looking at Capital Spreads and Finspreads. Anyone got
any suggestions or experience with other companies that they are using or have used in the past?
Melnibone.
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 17:01
- 40 of 48
1655 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--FTSE 100 closes -9.3 points or -0.2% at 4381.4, on a volume of 3.69B shares traded, after US Jan ISM data misses consensus expectations, economists say a strong upswing in US economy already been priced in. JP Morgan strategists remain upbeat about the picture for global equity markets. The bank points to a backdrop of strong growth momentum, likely changes in rate expectations and forecast weakening in Asian central bank buying of Treasuries to support its underweight bonds and overweight equities stance. British Airways lead decliners to close -4.1% following a suspected case of bird flu in Germany; Vodafone led telecoms lower on speculation it plans to bid for AT&T. (SMT)
FTreader - 02 Feb 2004 17:28 - 41 of 48
BTW, I hear IG are pretty good for spreads, and E-trade provide free level 2 I think on CFDs. Not used either myself though.
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 17:38
- 42 of 48
1. No dealing charges
2. able to make really small deals (in fact they don't like large deals!)
Most serious traders I know have several accounts, which they change between depending on what they can get out of it!
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 18:29
- 43 of 48
dealing charge in the skew! no one works for free;)
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 18:33
- 44 of 48
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 18:34
- 45 of 48
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 18:34
- 46 of 48
ThePlayboy
- 02 Feb 2004 18:38
- 47 of 48
little woman
- 02 Feb 2004 19:04
- 48 of 48
We'll have to meet one day, and you'll find though I'm not known for my tact - I don't have a nasty bone in my body -(Terrible judge of people as I always think the best of them! :-))
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