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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 9th February (ULVR)     

Crocodile - 08 Feb 2004 12:27

UK PreMarket Futures FTSE +4 DAX +3 DOW Unch S&P -0.5 Nasdaq +1

1 Day

2 Day

 5 Day

UK News

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Gold/Bond Pivots Markets  Futures
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1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei -58  Hang Seng +217 Asia News

DAX CAC  Euro News
FTSE & DOW charts have 1,2 or 5 day views  -  News links for UK, US & Far East markets. - The Dax/CAC and Nikkei/Hang Seng are now switchable
News: Sorry Your browser is not java capable  

G7: Chancellor Gordon Brown says the British and U.S. economies are picking up strongly but he has warned that the euro zone needs radical economic surgery if it was to share in the world recovery

Vodaphone confirms it is considering an offer of 37 Billion dollars for AT&T wireless. Even with the sale of Verizon for 20 Billion it will leave them with a 17 Billion funding gap. These concerns have led to the recent weakness in VOD.

British Airways posted a third-quarter profit of 125 million above analysts average forecast of 94 million near the top of the forecast range but said security issues were still having some impact on forward bookings.

PSION, Is disposing of its Symbian stake for approx 135 million pounds to Nokia. This works out some 215p a share so with the share price of PSION being 95p except fireworks!

Eurotunnel posted a 1.9 billion euro net loss due to big write downs, and said it had proposed significantly cutting access rates for train operators to boost traffic but to do this it would need a more stable financial structure.. Operating profit fell to 248 million euros from 326 million euros.

Bloomsbury is set to launch the paperback version of the latest chronicles of Harry Potter, on July 10.

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT

 Albemarle & Bond (I), British Airways (Q3) Cambridge Antibody Technology (Q1) Albemarle & Bond (I), Cambridge Antibody Technology (Q1), Diagonal (F), Eurotunnel (F), Royalblue (F),

ScS Upholstery (EGM), Jan PPI (09:30)

Dec house prices (00:01), Dec industrial production (09:30)

Hasbro (Q4)

3.00pm Wholesale Inventories

 

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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Crocodile - 08 Feb 2004 12:27 - 2 of 24

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United Kingdom - Calendar  9th - 13th February

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United States  (GMT)

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Europe & World (GMT)

 Albemarle & Bond (I), British Airways (Q3) Cambridge Antibody Technology (Q1) Albemarle & Bond (I), Cambridge Antibody Technology (Q1), Diagonal (F), Eurotunnel (F), Royalblue (F),

ScS Upholstery (EGM)

Dec house prices (00:01) Dec industrial production (09:30) Jan PPI (09:30)  

Hasbro (Q4)

3.00pm Wholesale Inventories

 

Aquarius Platinum (I), Galen (Q1) Alphameric (F), Bookham Technology (F), BP (Q4), Brandon Hire (F), BWD Securities (F) Dobbies Garden Centre (F), Enodis (Q1) nCipher (F), Quantica (F),

Baggeridge Brick (AGM), Fountains (AGM), Holidaybreak (AGM) Paragon Group of Companies (AGM), Victrex (AGM)Dec trade (09:30)

Viacom (Q4) Prudential Financial (Q4)

Bouygues (Q4) Renault (F) Valeo (F)

Rhoen-Klinikum

Antisoma (I), British Sky Broadcasting Group (I) Scott Tod (I), Yell (Q3) Electric Word (F), Liberty International (F), Reckitt Benckiser (F)

Countryside Properties (AGM), United Drug (AGM) Safeway (EGM),

BAA (January) Traffic FiguresJan/Dec labour market report (09:30) BoE quarterly inflation report (1030)

Coca-Cola (Q4) The Walt Disney (Q1)  

Douglas Holding (Q1) Elmos Semiconductor A AWD

Ex Dividend: Grainger Trust 12.8p, Montpellier Group 1.15p, Asset Management 3.0p, Awaiting further data.....

Alumasc (I), BT (Q3),  McBride Scottish & Newcastle (8 mths & 12 mths)

Barclays (F), Centrica (F), GlaxoSmithKline (F) London Bridge Software (F), Marconi Corp (F) Pendragon (F), Rolls-Royce (F), Unilever (Q4) , LastMinute.comBrewin Dolphin (AGM), Mitchells & Butlers (AGM)Q4 housebuilding data (09:00) Q4 ODPM housebuilding stats (09:00)

Analog Devices (Q1) Dell Computer (Q4) Safeway (Q4) NVIDIA (Q4)

13:30 Business Inventories 13:30 Initial Claims 13:30 Retail Sales 13:30 Retail Sales ex-auto

7.00pm Treasury Budget

 

Webnet (I), Heavitree Brewery (F) LloydsTSB (F)Network Technology (AGM)

13:30 Export Prices ex-ag. 13:30 Import Prices ex-oil 13:30 Trade Balance

7.00pm Treasury Budget

12.45pm Mich Sentiment-Prel.

 

 

Provisional Calendar For The Week Following  16th - 20th February

ITNET (F)

   

DICOM Group (I) Fairplace Consulting (I) Netstore (I) BG Group (F) Bradford & Bingley (F)Hardys & Hanson (AGM)RICS Jan house price survey (00:30)

2.15pm Capacity Utilization 2.15pm Industrial Production 1.30pm NY Empire State Index

 

BoE`s minutes of Feb MPC meeting  (09:30) UK Treasury monthly economists survey of GDP, inflation forecasts  (09:30)

1.30pm Building Permits 1.30pm Housing Starts  

 

Ex Dividend: Awaiting data

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (F) Morgan Sindall (F), RBOS (F)UK RICS Jan house price survey (00:30)

CML Jan mortgage lending data Jan BBA net stg lending data Jan capital issuance Jan M4/M4 lending (prov) Jan PSNCR Jan retail sales

3.00pm Leading Indicators 5.00pm Philadelphia Fed 1.30pm Core PPI 1.30pm Initial Claims 1.30pm PPI

 

Go-ahead (I) Alliance & Leicester (F)

1.30pm Core CPI 1.30pm CPI

 

 

Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead  -  Sunday 8th February

ftse.gifMonday UK industrial production and producer prices data could give the FTSE some direction.

British Airways third-quarter figures are expected to reflect the recent rebound in long-haul air travel. Profits should lift to around 100m from 25m last time. However heightened concerns about terrorism and now avian flu could dampen enthusiasm for the year ahead. This may be seen in forward bookingsTuesday

BP expect to produce a profit leap from 7b to almost 11b despite a slip in petrochemical margins in the final four months of the year. Income is expected to benefit from the strong operating environment and the inclusion of the group's Russian venture.

UK trade balance figures.

Reckitt Benckiser, on the other hand, is expected to post a 9% rise in revenues to 3.8b, with profits climbing 18% to 650m

Bookham Technology is expected to reveal that its Q4 loss narrowed further from both the year-ago and previous quartersWednesday

BSkyB could announce that is paying its first dividend when it announces its interim results. It is expected to say it has more than doubled pre-tax profits from 99m to 240m, Subscriber numbers could be up to 7.2m and those with SkyPlus may rise to 250,000 Thursday

The U.S government will issue weekly claims for jobless benefits, as well as reports on business inventories for December and retail sales for January. These will be closely scrutinised for signs whether consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, could be slowing down.

BT reports Q3 figures but the city may be more interested in how they plan to boost turnover, cut costs and maintain revenue growth as revenue is hit by competition into its core market. Turnover is expected to fall by 2% but profits should improve by 16m to 537m because of lower interest costs on its reduced net debt.

Barclays are expected to post profits of around 3.9b, some 8% higher than last year following a strong trading statement in December

GlaxoSmithKline the world's number two drug company is expected to post a 6% rise in pre-tax profit to 7b for the full year. However the city is worried over delays in bringing new drugs to the market. Unilever is widely expected to unveil a new corporate strategy which focuses attention on improvements in earnings per share. According to the Observer on Sunday there could be a SALES WARNING

Centrica should report pre-tax profits close to the 1bn from 870m a year earlier following higher profits from its North American energy business and AA breakdown operation combined with reduced losses from the telecoms section. The city will be looking for news on future acquisitions to maintain growth

Rolls-Royce posts full-year results which are expected to show an improvement in pre-tax profits to 268m from 255m. Analysts will be looking for signs of a pick-up in the civil aerospace market and an update on its pension funding.

Friday

US reports the December international trade deficit, projected to widen to $39.45 billion from $38.01 billion in November, and the University of Michigan's preliminary February reading on consumer sentiment, forecast to dip to 103.3 from January's final reading of 103.8,

Thoughts

World stock markets may get some direction from this weekend's meeting of the G7 finance ministers in Florida. The main subject discussed will be the worries over the slumping value of the U.S. dollar. The risks from Avian flu and the continuing worries about terrorism are also likely to depress World markets.

US Stocks could drift lower next week as the current earnings season comes to an end. So far 80 percent of the S&P's 500 companies have reported quarterly results. However here in the UK we're just starting the big UK reporting season with some of the biggest names reporting earnings next week. The FTSE however historically has been susceptible to a pullback at this time of year after gains in January.

Both the yearly and 6 monthly chart show that the market is currently testing support which could well signal a bounce higher to 4500 short term. The 10 day Intraday chart shows the FTSE broke the long running downtrend on Friday morning. If it can not maintain this rise and falls back below 4390 I will go short looking to close around 4350. However if it does it will break the 5 month & 1 year uptrend which could well signify the end of the bull run.

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead! 

David (Crocodile) David@SnappyTrader.com  www.SnappyTrader.com

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

Crocodile - 08 Feb 2004 12:28 - 3 of 24

Sunday Newspaper Financial Headlines - 8th February

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Exchange rates dominate G7 talks: It is understood that the US accepts that the dollar should not get much weaker against the yen and the euro. The Americans also want the Chinese currency to be able to move more freely according to the market's dictates.

Rail authorities have been told to upgrade rail lines across Britain to allow trains to run at 200mph.Ministers must start planning now to put the UK's ailing railways on a par with Europe, says the Commission for Integrated Transport.

After the Bank of England put its interest rate up by 0.25% to 4%.news was released that the number of Britons going bankrupt surged to its highest level in at least 10 years in the fourth quarter of 2003.

Unilever has seen its recent financial performance hit by the popularity of the Atkins diet, is expected to announce this week that it has slashed its sales forecasts. Chairman Niall Fitzgerald is expected to sweeten the news with an announcement that the company will embark on a share buy-back which could be worth up to 1.5 billion pounds over the next twelve months

SUNDAY TIMES Shell Trans: Forget AT&T, Sarin should go for the real prize IAWS associate on German roll Change board structure now, Shell is told New Look boss to quit if Singh offer is accepted Celltech Prufrock: Court gets clogged up Debenture threat to Queens Moat sale Tesco in Valentine's Day war on Interflora Boots feels pain from loss-making dentists Barclays Prufrock: Court gets clogged up Eircom: Damien Kiberd: Forget the unions and let market forces flow US mobile bid may cost Vodafone an extra 4bn Hard-up Invensys rules out dividends

BAE Systems Stonecipher: 'Albaugh will do fine'

Ryanair pilots to fight O'Leary ban on unions easyJet Chris Gent declares: 'I want the chairmanship of ITV' BAE Systems Cost of aircraft carriers rises to 5bn

Next Directors' Deals: 2.5m goes into David Joness locker Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Greggs Sharewatch: Celltech Irish Agenda: Ryanair flies clear of Armageddon as Brussels spouts spin Case Study: Tesco worker will check out 15,000 richer Shell Transport Quote of the week Vebnet (Holdings) Sharewatch: Software pays off You can't be sure of Shell Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Easyjet?  

SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Barclays closes in on Providian Financial Aviva, Yourmove put on the market Sunnucks tipped for M&S Ugandan is latest Leeds saviour Vodafone plans AT&T bid

Shell Transport 'I am determined to fix it' Lloyds keeps it simple Invensys Third time lucky? Watts not finished at Shell

RIT Capital Rothschild family to scoop 100m

Nord Anglia Education: TAKE a look at this education and training firm which looks well positioned for growth. The group announced last November that full-year operating profits to the end of August had risen by 4.7% to 5.1m, with all divisions performing well. Fund manager* JO Hambro, which has a record as an aggressive investor ready to shake up companies to squeeze out value, has just emerged as a holder of a 4.97% stake in Nord Anglia. Bolder investors should follow Hambro. Buy.

OBSERVER Brascan to up Canary offer Vodafone to shock City with US megabid US fund demands shake-up at ShellUnilever takes knife to sales targets

BSkyB Now it's Top-Up TV for digitally entranced Britons Lloyds TSB You can still bank on banks ITV Now it's Top-Up TV for digitally entranced Britons

FSA to probe trading in British Energy

MAIL ON SUNDAY Barclays on hunt for US foothold Blow the whistle or we'll sack you, 150,000 Boeing staff must sign charter Big banks are on the gravy train, Leasing costs boost overcrowding Virgin's 55m ghost rail fleet, Firm pays even when trains can't run Ryanair defiant on wheelchair charge, Airline accused of 'imposing' 2,400% profit Online travel firms book in for merger Deal could start journey to market

BT pension firm's Parmalat alert, Warning a year before 10bn collapse Top banker floated to a fortune 'They saw it as time to fill their boots' Mothercare dispute over sales figures, Stores firm and researcher disagree Bank of England faces acid test over rate rise, Suspicion new index being ignored BT under fire as mobiles plan falls flat, Analysts fear new shares sell-off 8 for 10 channel Freeview top-up, Former BSkyB duo in digital deal

Think tiny for really big returns, Smallest companies outstripped giants

INDEPENDENT  Amec, British builders in bid for $6.5bn Iraqi contracts Mowlem (J) British builders in bid for $6.5bn Iraqi contracts Shell chairman fails to quell revolt as investor anger grows 'Beano' publisher in frame at SMG Ritblat makes last-minute move to muscle in on Canary battle Canary Wharf New chief for Invensys as full woes emerge

BP: The Week Ahead: Vodafone chief's big call over AT&T

The Week Ahead: Vodafone chief's big call over AT&T HSBC Business View: If banks can't milk consumers for growth, they'll have to find some suckers BT The Week Ahead: Vodafone chief's big call over AT&T Lloyds TSB : If banks can't milk consumers for growth, they'll have to find some suckers Barclays If banks can't milk consumers for growth, they'll have to find some suckers  

UBS.A REVIVAL in the corporate deal market is likely to spell good news for investment banks and advisers, particularly Swiss group UBS. Analysts are largely confident that Zurich-listed UBS, which has a market value of 43bn and reports full-year figures on Tuesday, will say its US corporate finance unit has performed particularly well.

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Royal Bank to launch 3.3bn GreenPoint bid US connection too risky for Vodafone Ryanair threatens to sue Germany in revenge for EC ruling

British Airways Investors who think small reap benefits Directors invest heavily in IndigoVision

Rolls-Royce Investors who think small reap benefits Scottish and Newcastle Investors who think small reap benefits BAE Systems 'Robocop' headset can be ARC of triumph for BAE Systems BAE Systems Spin survey shows who's hot and who's not  

SUNDAY EXPRESS DFS Furniture group is highly profitable and has a strong cash position, according to Teather & Greenwood. It is also a growth business with the potential to increase retail floorspace by 50%. Buy at 371p. Umeco aerospace parts group ' newly acquired 80% stake in US group Tailored Logistics Corp will improve earnings and boost Umeco's links with the Pentagon. Buy at 385p.

The Business

Business Post: Keep an eye on UK parcels deliverer Business Post, which is benefiting from soaring demand for electronic goods such as mobile phones and personal computers. Business Post has deals with several electronics manufacturers to deliver their goods, including an exclusive contract with Dell. The shares are valued at about 22 times expected earnings, but these estimates may be on the low side. BNP Paribas: After French opposition to the invasion of Iraq, BNP Paribas - the eurozone's biggest bank - had little chance of winning Washington's approval for an acquisition in the United States. But BNP has hinted strongly of the chances of a deal there soon. A strong upturn in the French economy and a modest rating make BNP's shares among the most attractive in the sector.

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy - Scottish & Newcastle (SCTN), Lookers (LOOK), Country & Metropolitan (CRY), Centurion Energy (CUX), Domino Pizza (DOM).Sell - Aggreko (AGK). Tip Updates: Dana (DNX) (Good Value) - Alizyme (AZM) (Good Value) - Ramco (ROS) (Hold) - Henlys (HNL) (Sell) - Hornby (HRN) (Hold) - Merrydown (MYW) (Buy).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy - K3 Business Technology (KBT), Westmount (WTE), Melrose (MRO). Hold - Peterhouse (PHS). Sell - Henlys (HNL), Ramco Energy (ROS). P&O (PO) (sell), Glaxo (GSK), Jarvis (JRVS), London Clubs (LCI), GUS (GUS), Dmatek (DTK), Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN), Protherics (PTI), Richmond Foods (RFD), Yates (YTE).

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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ThePlayboy - 08 Feb 2004 15:25 - 4 of 24

MONDAYS FTSE PP

R2 4422
R1 4412
PP 4398
S1 4389
S2 4375

Ftse close on Fri was above R1, only gained .7 in the auction! 2 day ftse chart inconclusive but 5 day chart forming a wedge, breakout at 4405 breakdown at 4390! Strength if dow can hold above 10550 Fri.

FTSE WEEKLY PP

R2 4442
R1 4422
PP 4390
S1 4370
S2 4338

Possible test of 4440 this week if we get a brk out of the 5 day wedge at 4405, ftse range this week 50pts ish about half its normal range making the mkt difficult to call during this consolidation phase!

ThePlayboy - 08 Feb 2004 15:26 - 5 of 24

Updated 2/6 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 2/9
UP Above 10,600
DN Below 10,540

Upside Break
Dow breaks range to upside, holds at highs.

From prior commentary, "...The Dow is clearly winding up for the "pitch". The fact that the index has traded sideways for over a week hints at the strong possibility of a solid break from the range..."
The Dow got an upside break through the top of the range today, which sparked a solid push higher for the session, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts, making for some very nice intraday gains. The day's rally capped a 97 point gain for the Dow.

Looking at the 60 Minute Chart, shows that the Dow is moving higher toward recent highs at around 10,700. An upside break through 10,600 will likely cause such a move Monday. However, if the index does not break and hold above 10,700, look for the Dow to remain within the boundaries of the wide trading range that has formed at the highs of the 60 Minute Chart from 10,450 to 10,700.

A break below 10,540 will likely push the Dow back toward the bottom of the range at around 10,450 Monday. A break through 10,450 will indicate an even further decline.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow is holding above short term support at 10,547, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Watch for strength above this level Monday morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Long today at 10,550, but stopped out of the trade at the entry due to the Breakeven Rule. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will watch 10,600 up, and 10,540 down Monday with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each got rolling early in the session, which each ending the day at the session highs. Look for a continuation pattern to form to indicate further upside movement. *

Summary

The Dow opened the session quietly this morning, but eventually got the upside break from the consolidation, sparking a solid push higher for the day. Look for the index to hold at the highs before another move is seen. An upside push through 10,600 will indicate continued strength, while a break below 10,540 could make for another move lower.


Melnibone - 08 Feb 2004 16:51 - 6 of 24

draw?size=Big&movingAverageString=%2C60%

Broadly agree with TP and Croc. Looking at it slightly differently.

I think that if the market has turned from this short Bear downtrend
back to the Bull uptrend, then Wednesday marked the turn. This is when
it stabilized and made a higher high and a higher low.

Rather than looking for 4405 for a break higher I'm looking more
to 4410 which was the approx Wednesday high. I agree 4390 is the level
to watch for downside. These levels, surprise surprise, happen to tie
in nicely with S1/R1 at 4389/4412.

What I'm also watching is my favourite old 60 Day EMA which I believe
has been marking the bottom of the uptrend channel since last summer.
We are currently below it, as we were in September. It also happens
to mark the 4410 level, which is another reason why I believe that this
is the level to break above, but more importantly, stay above.

To sum up, we seem to be watching the same approx levels, for slightly
different reasons. Also, none of us seem to have a firm conviction
on direction.
Time to remain light on your tootsies.;-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 08 Feb 2004 16:51 - 7 of 24

draw?size=Big&movingAverageString=%2C60%

Broadly agree with TP and Croc. Looking at it slightly differently.

I think that if the market has turned from this short Bear downtrend
back to the Bull uptrend, then Wednesday marked the turn. This is when
it stabilized and made a higher high and a higher low.

Rather than looking for 4405 for a break higher I'm looking more
to 4410 which was the approx Wednesday high. I agree 4390 is the level
to watch for downside. These levels, surprise surprise, happen to tie
in nicely with S1/R1 at 4389/4412.

What I'm also watching is my favourite old 60 Day EMA which I believe
has been marking the bottom of the uptrend channel since last summer.
We are currently below it, as we were in September. It also happens
to mark the 4410 level, which is another reason why I believe that this
is the level to break above, but more importantly, stay above.

To sum up, we seem to be watching the same approx levels, for slightly
different reasons. Also, none of us seem to have a firm conviction
on direction.
Time to remain light on your tootsies.;-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 08 Feb 2004 16:54 - 8 of 24

Looks like my doppleganger is back, double posting. ;-)

Melnibone.

little woman - 08 Feb 2004 20:02 - 9 of 24

Evening all,

I wouldn't worry melnibone, I read the first posting, wasn't sure I understood what it all mean't and what you were saying, but by the time I went through the second posting it had sunk in!

Crocodile - 09 Feb 2004 07:36 - 10 of 24

Morning all

Douggie - 09 Feb 2004 08:11 - 11 of 24

mornin all

Melnibone - 09 Feb 2004 09:09 - 12 of 24

Morning all,

That DAX moves fast doesn't it!

Did a bit of research over the weekend and sorted out some levels.

Range trade: 4010 to 4050.
Long Bias: above 4053
Short Bias: Below 4000.

What happens? it opens up at 4070 and shoots to 4090!

I think that I'll have to be a shade quicker than this if I want
to trade the DAX. I'm too used to that slothful Old Lady, the FTSE. :-)

Melnibone.

little woman - 09 Feb 2004 09:21 - 13 of 24

Morning all

Melnibone - You have D4F?

They let you deal DAX when the market is not open, which is why it looks like it shoots up (or down) on open. The reality is it already trading at that level much earlier but as most charts only record it from market open, starting where it left off at market close.

I understand it follows the futures while the market is closed.

Melnibone - 09 Feb 2004 09:42 - 14 of 24

Thanks for that little woman, yes, I do use D4F.

I'm looking to spread my wings a little and branch out away
from the UK stocks/Index.

As usual, I'm doing a lot of groundwork before dipping my toe
in the water, so any comments such as your's are most welcome.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 09 Feb 2004 09:50 - 15 of 24

GSK is looking a little sickly on an up day.

Glad I followed the price action and scalped it now,
instead of sticking with my own thoughts and holding.

If the FTSE does a retrace, as well as dropping to 1150
support, there is a danger that GSK can do an MKS and
drop to the 1000p March lows.

Definately a stock to let the market talk to you about
rather than follow your own preconceived ideas of
valuation. (For trading of course, not LTBH investing).

Melnibone.

Crocodile - 09 Feb 2004 10:18 - 16 of 24

Playing around with PON and trading what I see. Given up working out the maths!

FTreader - 09 Feb 2004 12:25 - 17 of 24

any thoughts on BAY today? good figures but not much impact, hovering below 300p.

Melnibone - 09 Feb 2004 13:09 - 18 of 24

Everywhere I read at the moment, comment seems to be
about the US opening higher and pushing on.

DOW is already up to around 10,600, so why not some profit
taking and a drop to test 10,500 instead?

If it does this and takes it's time, say 1640 hrs, Europe will
drop towards the close.

Melnibone.

stockbunny - 09 Feb 2004 14:19 - 19 of 24

Much thanks Croc for providing the answer to a question I had, without
me even asking!! - namely why ULVR was heading south on a generally positive day!
On a more positive note- It should be a good fortnight for the banks!

Fundamentalist - 09 Feb 2004 15:08 - 20 of 24

melnibone,

agree with your comments re gsk retracing to 1150p though i find it hard to believe we will see 1000p again. Results are due out thursday which may help to dictate the next moves in the shorter term. I am looking to buy medium term again on any further dip, but am likely to wait until the results are out of the way before re-entering. i still like the look of this as a long term stock but the volatility at the moment makes it a stock I find hard to hold when it makes it into profit after only a few days

Melnibone - 09 Feb 2004 15:22 - 21 of 24

If you find it hard to hold when in profit, then I
suggest that you are more inclined to be a Trader than
an LTBH sort of person. :-)
So why not carry on taking the profits like you seem to
doing? It's far more satisfying!

GSK is expected to announce that the positive effects of
it's merger are now coming to an end. So you are probably
wise, if you are looking for an LTBH position, to wait until
after the results as you say.

If the market wants to sell GSK off, and remember some people still
have profits to take from those 1000p levels, then it may use
this as an excuse.

Same as you, I like this stock, but that doesn't mean that it may
not go cheaper.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 09 Feb 2004 15:26 - 22 of 24

SHEL is getting cheaper by the day. With the increase in dividend
it must approach 5% yield soon.

Looks like Testex wasn't far off the mark with the 330p target.

Melnibone.

Fundamentalist - 09 Feb 2004 16:39 - 23 of 24

Melnibone,

tx for your comments - I normally have no problems holding when in profit, I have shares I have held 4yrs+ that are in profit - it just seems to be GSK that has this effect on me. I am going to keep trading it short term whilst looking for a price I am comfortable buying at for the long term.

Melnibone - 09 Feb 2004 18:56 - 24 of 24

draw?size=Big&startDate=09%2F11%2F03&per

FTSE didn't really show that much strength today.
It's interesting to see where the highs topped out.
Right at what was the previous swing low at circa 4430.

Unless the US cracks on and finishes DOW/S@P 10700/1150,
I don't really see the FTSE pushing much past here.
It needs some positive momentum to break through here and
mount another attack on 4480/4500.

Some traders have some nice fat profits to take in the
finance stocks now. If the US pulls back below 10600,
they'll have the excuse to take them.
I'll need a lot of convincing before going long here.

Melnibone.

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