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US Blue chips see-sawed back into the red where they were joined by the Nasdaq as tech stocks slipped. In Europe Phillips produced good results on demand for flat screens. UBS bank Q4 net profit soars past expectations. Renault produces better than expected 23% rise. BP the world's second largest oil company made a profit of $2.667 billion below analysts average forecasts of $3.03 billion with a flat Q4 profit but said it intended to resume share buybacks. Bookham Technology who have never made a profit mae a smaller loss on cost cutting and higher sales. Carillion construction group has won a contract to maintain certain highways in Warwickshire, central England, worth up to 84 million pounds. Business Post said it would offer a bulk business mail service from April after signing a deal with state postal operator Royal Mail to use part of its delivery network. Enodis food-equipment maker returned to profit in Q1 after cost cutting and forecast modest market growth in 2004. They had a profit of 2.1 million pounds compared with a loss of 200,000 PZ Cussons soap maker posted a 28 percent rise in first-half profit but warned the recent slide in the U.S. dollar would hit second-half results. Galen Holdings drugmaker said Q1earnings more than doubled as it benefited from recent acquisitions and said it viewed the rest of 2004 with confidence. Earnings per share leapt 139 percent to 30.3 U.S. cents in the three months with analyst forecasts ranged from 26.6-27.9 cents.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Aquarius Platinum (I), Galen (Q1) Alphameric (F), Bookham Technology (F), BP (Q4), Brandon Hire (F), BWD Securities (F) Dobbies Garden Centre (F), Enodis (Q1) nCipher (F), Quantica (F), Baggeridge Brick (AGM), Fountains (AGM), Holidaybreak (AGM) Paragon Group of Companies (AGM), Victrex (AGM)Dec trade (09:30)	Viacom (Q4) Prudential Financial (Q4)	Bouygues (Q4) Renault (F) Valeo (F) Rhoen-Klinikum

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Morning ...

TUES FTSE PP

R2 4459
R1 4447
PP 4425
S1 4412
S2 4390

Ftse closed above Mondays R2 after gaining 3.7pts in the auction, 2 day ftse chart targeting 4355 unless 4325 brks for weakness to 4410! All about the dow and can it brk 10600 for cont strength on Mon!



Updated 2/9 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 2/10
UP Above 10,625
DN Below 10,450

Quiet Session
Dow trades quietly, ends session slightly lower.

From prior commentary, "...The Dow got an upside break through the top of the range today, which sparked a solid push higher for the session...Look for the index to hold at the highs before another move is seen..."
The Dow traded quietly today, as the index pushed through 10,600 before finally settling for a 14 point loss, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index continues to hold at the highs after rallying Friday, which could set the stage for another push toward 10,700.

Looking at the Daily and 60 Minute Charts show that the Dow continues to trade within the boundaries of a wide trading range, which has formed from 10,450 to 10,700. Look for the index to remain within these boundaries until a clear and solid break occurs. A downside break through 10,450 will make for a sharp decline, while an upside break through 10,700 will spark a continuation higher.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the lows of the 1 Minute Chart from 10,570 to 10,585. A downside break is most likely for tomorrow's Open. Watch for a break from this range for short term direction at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Long today at 10,600, but stopped out of the position with a 20 point loss. No other trades were triggered and we are once again out of the market. Watch 10,450 down, and 10,625 up, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each opened the session higher today, but managed to push slightly lower by day's end. Look for further sideways movement at the highs to indicate strength tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow moved slowly throughout the session today, closing the day slightly below even. Look for a continued sideways movement to indicate strength at the highs. Otherwise, a break below 10,450 will make for vast weakness.

mornin all

Morning all

Morning all,

I see that the US did in fact drop, but later than I anticipated,
and gave European stocks weakness this morning rather than yesterday
afternoon.

I don't know how much more SHEL is going to drop, but it's getting
cheap enough for me in relation to its peer group.
It doesn't seem to be hit very hard by the BP. effect and the chart
would appear to be showing signs of stabilizing.

I haven't worked out the yield yet, but at these levels it must be shaving
close to 5%. This will attract funds. As well as the undoubted selling that's
gone on, there has been some Bears jumping on the bandwagon with straight
shorts. They will have to close and buy at some point.
Have started to build a position in SHEL this morning.

Melnibone.

Decided to try something different with my CFD account!

Picked out a number of shares which are near highs, and put in a small short position in each one. I get paid a small amount of interest if I leave the position open and as long none of them go ex div to take off upwards, and if they do, I just keep topping up my position - then all I have to do is wait on each one as soon or later profit taking will pull the price down!

So far it is working remarkably well.

Which highs are you selecting little woman?

Intraday or trading ranges or longer term?

Melnibone.

A bit of all of it - I'm looking at 5 day highs/trend against the 12 month trends. (to try not to choose those that may not drop back just yet!) Then I'm looking at the intraday, incase I may have already missed the boat!

Sounds like fun, little woman.

I'm still playing my UK stocks and trying to work out
a strategy to play the CAC and the DAX in Euros.

I noticed on another thread that you move money in and out
of CMC. When you moved it out, what was the currency exchange rate
like when you converted the Dollars from your US Dow plays back
into Sterling?

Was it comparable to the market rates?

Melnibone.

US rate was extremely good. I've decided not to play in US anymore a week or so back as I was showing a small loss. This morning I realised the rate had gone from 1.82 (when the loss orginated) to 1.86+ so I actually benefited from the worsing rate! I rang the help desk and we exchanged the US, they asked if I was happy with the rate they offered, and I was. Very good if you are showing a loss - not so good if you are in profit!

(I checked with Thomas Cook and they were offering 1.78)

I didn't want to take a chance on the US$ strengthing as it could wipe out my cash.

good morning people!
Just switched on to see the live stream is pretty nasty this morning
hopefully it will pick up later...Off for a cup of tea in the meantime.
Out of SHEL & BP - who likes who best?? Putting it simply LOL

Thanks for that little woman.

That's a good point about the weakening Dollar helping
out with your small loss.

That's one of the reasons I'm looking to go into Euro stocks
at the moment rather than US Dollar stocks.

Most people seem to think that the Dollar could weaken further
against the /Euro.

Any US Dollar profits in my account would therefore devalue until
the Dollar stopped sliding. /Euro exchange should remain a
little less volatile. Not that I'm a Forex expert mind!

If the /$ hits 2.00, that could be a good time to start accumulating
Dollar profits in my account as the Dollar then, hopefully, starts
to strengthen back towards the mean and buys more Sterling.

Very complicated this CFD trading in different currencys, isn't it. :-)

Melnibone.

Things seem to be going quiet again - FTSE100 moving sideways within a very narrow band, even the other indexs are trading within a small range. There seems to be a bit of profit taking going on, but nothing major.

Yes, they're waiting to see if the US goes back to test the
10,450/10500 range or moves on to test the 10,600/10700
range.

I would expect the FTSE/DAX to hold 4400/4410 and 4090/4100
respectively until direction is given.

Melnibone.

I have a trading account in the US, which I hadn't actually traded over the last 2+ years. They are introducing a monthly charge if I don't do more than 1 trade every three months.

So I have decided to sell the shares I am holding (2 showing small losses, and 1 a spectacular profit (200+%), so may split the sale) over the next 4 quarters, to see what the US$ is doing. Hopefully in about 12 months things may have improved, so I can convert the money into sterling and transfer the money back to the UK and make a profit on the exchange rate.

Hi Testex,

Oil stocks have taken a beating. Hopefully we'll both do well.

OPEC seems a little unhappy at the Dollar weakness and are
finding reasons to keep the price up to counteract the revenue
drop.

This should keep the oil price up as demand lowers after the winter
months. I'm also reading that US oil reserves are low and
that China is also trying to increase reserves.

I think that oil price Bears are in for a bit of a wait yet for
lower prices, especially if Al Quaeda start making noises again.

Melnibone.

But the two 'biggies' SHEL and BP do look cheap right now,
although I suppose they could fall further...

Stockbunny, if you think they are going to fall why don't you short it?

Sorry not explained myself too well - I'm looking for a point
to buy in, trying to work out where the bottom line will be.

BP looks as if the floor - aside of market crash last spring - is
around 380-400p, goes ex-div around 20th Feb. 15.5p usual yrly total.
Shell (SHEL) ex-div 31 March it seems, floor around 360p, same div approx.

Got very confused with Shell SHEL is the usually traded one
and SHEB is something else?

Short BGC again

stockbunny, while you're working out the point to buy in, you should sell the share first and then buy it when it's reach that point.

BGC - that would have been an exellent short first thing.

I am not having a good day - maybe I should go back to bed!
Sorry - I've completely confused you LW, my fault,
I am not sitting on any shares I would be looking to buy
into them - none to sell currently.

No I don't think you understand me stockbunny - I'm talking about selling shares you haven't yet bought(shorting)

Ah with you - no I don't play that particular game, I just buy
and sell actual shares - dead boring me!! lol

You should try it - it's great fun :-) LOL. You don't need to play with much money either.

I shorted 5 shares (FKI, BARC, OOM, ENO & EMI)

Done really well with FKI, BARC, ENO and OOM.

Unfortunetly EMI is currently testing R2! (So overall I'm breaking even, after taking some of my profits.

Decided to short more EMI, with R3 as stop loss.

EMI: Currently at it's 12 months high as it was yesterday! What happened to profit taking!

Nah! Testex.

BP's Board are just better at being economical with the truth
than SHEL's Board. :-)

Melnibone.

LW - EMI MAY FINALLY BE GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER. JUST LOOK AT THIS WEEKS NEW RELEASES ALONE - NORAH JONES CD ( LAST CD SALES 18m) AND BEATLES DVD. AFTER A VERY LEAN PERIOD - THEY SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT SPRING SCHEDULE LINED UP. FUNAMENTALS GOOD - WHY TAKE PROFITS IF THERE IS MORE TO COME

Looks like the US is waiting for Greenspan to have
a little waffle.

What do they expect him to say?
Something different for a change, or what?

Melnibone.

I'm taking profits as the share drops not goes up!

Good old OPEC.

You can always rely on them boys to follow the greed
and try and keep the oil price up.

They're going to cut production. :-)

Melnibone.

I think what bishopjeremy meant was why should the
Bulls take profits at this point and drop the price
for you Bears when they are expecting more profits.

That's the way I read the view, could be wrong though.

Melnibone.

succinctly put mb. many thanks

You could be right melnibone - but as deep down I'm a bull, I was just working on the need to profit take to benefit as a tempory bear!

He's probably been passing 'Brown' envelopes to a few Sheiks, Testex.;-)

SHEL doing very nicely on a poor FTSE day.
What a shame they never got hammered down a bit more
this morning along with that 'Flyless' Lord Browne's
mob. ;-)

Melnibone.

Nice day today with a final win on a Baltimore short. Watch this fall further tomorrow especially if the market is weak

Merrill Lynch repeated its "buy" recommendation on Shell and 12-month target of 500p based on valuation grounds.

Never listen to 'Free' financial advice myself, but enough people
still do. :-))

That'll do nicely.

Melnibone.