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U.S. stocks closed lower with most of the declines made in the last half hour of trading with the Nasdaq being hardest hit Alliance & Leicester reported profit up 12 percent to 525 million pounds from 468.3 million a year earlier slightly above market expectations mainly due to mortgage lending. It also announced that it would buy back shares this year. De Vere Group hotelier said it saw its overall trading environment as variable, with resilience in the leisure break market but a less consistent recovery in business conference demand. Like for like revenues rose 1.8 percent in the first 19 weeks of its financial year. Go-Ahead transport group posted a 43-percent jump in half-year profits to 47 million up from 33 million and at the top end of estimates, boosted by its rail and bus units.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Go-Ahead Group (F), Alliance & Leicester (F), ASOSDe Vere Group (AGM), Bankers Investment Trust (AGM)	1.30pm  Core CPI 1.30pm  CPI	Deutsche Boerse (F) L'Oreal (F)

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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Updated 2/19 for Friday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 2/20
UP Above 10,750
DN Below 10,600

Resistance at 10,750
Dow holds beneath 10,750, pushes lower to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...The index continues to hold beneath key resistance, which hints at weakness in the near term..."
The Dow traded higher to the clear and solid 10,750 resistance level this morning, but was not able to effectively break through. Instead, the index held beneath resistance and eventually got a sharp reversal to the downside, leading to a big sell-off to the Close, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts.

As we mentioned before, the Dow will likely remain weak beneath this key resistance level in the medium term. A downside push through 10,600 will lead to an even steeper decline toward 10,500.

Look for the index to continue trading within the 10,600 to 10,750 levels. Should the index break through resistance at 10,750, further upside is to be expected. Until then, however, further weakness will abound.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow sold off sharply late in the session today, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. A break below 10,650 will extend the downmove into tomorrow's Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we barely triggered Longs today at 10,750, and were subsequently stopped out. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. Watch 10,600 down, and 10,750 up, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each began the session sharply higher today, but a 'pop and drop' session soon followed. Look for signs of a continuation tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow reversed sharply off resistance today, completing a round trip session after the morning's opening burst. Look for the index to remain weak below key resistance at 10,750. A break below 10,600 will increase weakness.

Look a t last ops exp on Jan 16th bullish week than gradual fall away, not guaranteed but something to be aware of, ftse well overbought now!

FRI FTSE PP

R2 4564
R1 4540
PP 4491
S1 4467
S2 4419

Ftse closed above r3 on thu, only lost.3 in auction so no clues! 2 days ftse chart targeting 4540, Ops exp however Fri so once out the way may see some weakness creep in, watch 4495 for a trendchange imho!

AL figs show double digit gains,should be good news for the shares.

Morning all

mornin all

Morning all,

I seem to have a mixture of blues & reds. I'm wondering if I should have stuck it out in GSK, or is this just a tempory recovery?

Morning all,

Will probably just be an observer today.

We're too near a triple top in the FTSE with too much
profit left for folk to take for me to be tempted into
buying anything.

US bounced back off a double top yesterday and closed the
gap open it left on Tuesday. So US could possibly rise again
today which would make the FTSE, if it followed it, even
more overbought IMHO.

Some of the stocks I'm bearish on are bouncing which may mean
that Bears are taking profit prior to going flat for the weekend,
so I don't fancy any shorts there just yet either.

So, all in all, staying flat with maybe the odd scalp if the
opportunity presents itself.

Mrs. Melnibone is off work today, so no doubt a delightful day
of shopping beckons. :-(

Melnibone.

I've just filled an application to open an account with finspreads. After the problems I had with D4F, I'm wondering if I'm making a mistake? Anyone got any opinions?

Have never used finspreads, little woman, but I believe
snoball has some experience with them.

As well as my D4F account I've opened a Capital Spreads
account as a back up/alternative. I'll be using them to
play the US in 's in the evening and keep using D4F CFD's for
my FTSE share plays and UKX index trades.

Haven't used them for real yet, I'm waiting for the S@P to top
out and then play the short side for a retracement.
But the simulator seems very user friendly.

Melnibone.

Thanks Melnibone.

FTSE100 doing well again. Next week is going to interesting - is it going to continue up, or is there going to lots of profit taking and drop!

little woman,Melnibone

I'm new on the block. Been reading your posts for a week or so. Am experienced with share and traded option trading but want to trade shorts more easily. At present I am having a 21 day trial of the ETRADE CFD platform which seems good. Watched relationships between CFD and actual prices for a few days and today have made several hundred imaginary pounds with no more than 5000 margin trading Aviva Longs. Next I will try a spread bet platform ( did try to set up with D4F but web site went down and that put me off).Do you have any problems Melnibone?

Can either of you experienced CFD and Spread Bet experts advise which is best of these to go short with.
Really appreciate any suggestions and will post again regarding ETRADE platform
sw

sw - I had problems with D4F, - the biggest problem was they closed all my positions without telling me.

I'm off now until Sunday afternoon - so will take a look at this thread then, if anyone wants to post any comments

Hi seawatcher,

I'm not a spreadbet specialist, I'm just venturing into
that particular field as we speak.

I've been trading CFD's for over a year year now with CMC(D4F).
I trade them just as I would shares, but with the ability to
go short or hedge using the FTSE100(UKX).

A lot of people seem to have had problems with CMC, but I never
really have. I don't margin up excessively and it would have to
be a really vicious false spike to take me out of a position
with a margin call. Maybe that's why, I don't really know.

You do get requotes, but I've had them in my favour as well as
against me. FTSE 100 share spreads are similar to what you see
on the Mam stockwatch, but they can and do widen when things
get volatile. As I mainly swing trade stocks this isn't really
a problem to me. I just wait until things settle down and usually
get what I want during the day's trading range.

The platform does freeze sometimes, but from what I read on other
sites this seems to be pretty much endemic to other providers as well.
Especially when a big move happens and more and more people try
to trade at the same time in a fast moving market.
Some people say it's to stop people making money on a big move, but
I'm not so sure myself, the computer would have to be programmed
to selectively freeze out traders who would cost the company money
and keep live those who would make the company money. There will always
be some folk short and some folk long.
Possible I suppose, Croc could answer that better than me.
I would tend to think that it was an overloaded system that couldn't
cope with the demand.

Try a few more demo platforms and see what you think for yourself.
Compare spreads and up front margin, initial account deposit etc..

Melnibone.

Having posted all that, I've got 3% profit to take on a share
and I can't log in on MarketMaker or the web-lite version to take it.

Sod's law. Lol.

Melnibone.

Afternoon people - see BP are on a share buy back, good
for the price for now anyway!
So no shopping after all Melnibone??
((Wouldn't blame you it is absolutely freezing out there
when the wind blows!!!))

Done the shopping this morning, stockbunny.
M@S and House of Fraser now have more of my money
than I would like them to have. :-(

Finally logged in on CMC and got my shares sold.
Logged in to Capital Spreads and it looks like they
are having problems as well.
FTSE Daily Cash is showing 4535 and they are accepting
Telephone orders only on the FTSE. Little odd that.

I bet there's a lot of frustrated Bears about.

Melnibone.

Melnibone,
Thankyou very much for sparing me so much of your time on this interesting day and for the helpful answer.
sw

Capital Spreads seem to have got their FTSE feed sorted out.
Quote is back in synch with the cash market and internet
orders are back on the menu.

Melnibone.

I hope you have shares in M&S !!! :o)
If you don't I for one am very grateful for your choice
in store!!!

I'm on these, ALLIANCE & LEIC .

Santander Central Hispano is reported to be in exclusive talks to acquire Alliance & Leicester PLC in a deal worth more than 6.5 bln stg.
That is over 1400p a share

what a strange biz this is ....... volume = 19 million, split almost equally between buys and sells, yet sp has dumped 200p = 22.5% today alone

and now down 250 ..... hope no one knows something we don't

i found the following of interest ....

"Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS.L - news) said in a note that neither Alliance & Leicester nor Bradford & Bingley (LSE: BB.L - news) was as exposed as Northern Rock to wholesale funding, but added that Alliance & Leicester had a similar-sized balance sheet with a large block of treasury assets."

am i even more stupid that already well-broadcast, but can "a large block of treasury assets" be anything but good?

meanwhile, i note lots of soothing noises, particularly from BoE re guaranteeing of NRK deposits - as if they were ever truly at risk anyway

Wel, I know something.

The pendulum swings the other way tomorrow.

So, I buy here.

sure hope you're right, though shan't be buying more as have more than enough

what a difference a night makes!
having read the Telegraph at breakfast and seen its SELL recommendation even at <600, i fully expected a further fall, not least because of 2/3 broker downgrades yesterday.
suddenly, sp rockets (thank you God!) and Cazenove upgrades the stock!

....

looks like the bears may be getting rather uneasy ...... sp has been hovering 765/775 for the last couple of hours but has now broken upwards to 785

managed to recover not only my shirt but also socks and tie! ...... bought back in again latish yesterday at 676 and just sold again at 841 .... will now watch to see if all bubbles over

forget NRK as a recovery play; it is surely a dead dog! ....... AL however, already had a tentaitive t/o approach a little while back, and this could be a genuyine target ..... hence, i guess, the sudden excitment in sp today, perhaps bolstered by some realisation that this company is not likely to call for the lifeboat

Fortunately I sold mine at just over 10 pound before the fall. Interesting that wholesale rates have eased below BOE emergency lending rate.AsI for myself, I wouldn,t reinvest at present.

i haven't either! ..... i merely pointed out the possibility

looks like i called this right even if i didn't dabble myself

i was ashamed to admit yesterday that i had bought in here at 753 as i feared it was just pure greed that would get punished ...... as it happens, telegraph rates AL. a buy on the basis of high yield and potential t/o and in any case, sp has zipped up to 800 this morning.

have just noticed that merrill have also upgraded from sell to neutral

sold 2jan08 752p hny.

AL. has been downgraded to sell by ABN though surprisingly there has not been much reaction to that this morning.

given the volatility and fragility of the markets, i think this makes an interesting potential short, with a target of 650 or even 600 .... or even 548 if you want to take ABN's number

Wondered where you had gone Oh Truth Sayer.

So you are playing with Banks, very dodgy just now but good luck.

no .... but thought about it

more downgrades for AL. as below .......

Dresdner Kleinwort has cut Alliance & Leicester to 'sell' from 'hold', with a 680 pence target ...... A&L's share price has been buoyed by M&A speculation, leaving it at 8.7 times 2009 earnings -- a two point premium to peers

Societe Generale said it has initiated coverage on A&L with a 'sell' rating and a target price of 607 pence ...... recent takeover speculation has inflated A&L shares above what it views as their fundamental value, and it is of the belief that neither bank (B&B) is a takeover target in the near term ...... The broker said that despite attractive dividend yields and relatively low valuations, it believes that the two small UK retail banks face common and unique headwinds that will mute their earnings growth potential and limit the room for a positive surprise.

more broker reaction below, none of it positive ..... have opened a short here, and sp falling despite strong market ...... can't help it if none of you follow!


Panmure Gordon kept 'hold' and its 655 pence price target, saying it thinks the bad news has already been largely priced in.

Collins Stewart kept 'sell' on the bank, with a 600 pence price target, saying it has outperformed other UK banks by 23 pct in the past month, when takeover rumours have persisted ...... with falling earnings forecast in 2008, the 32 pct premium to the sector (8.3x vs 6.3x for 2008) appears to already fully price in a takeover.

and some more ......


Analysts said A&L's statement had done little to justify the stock's recent relative strength, which they attributed to takeover speculation.
'It is difficult to see how A&L will continue to outperform on the basis of this announcement,' said Oriel Securities analyst Mike Trippitt, who cut his stance on the stock to 'hold' from 'add'.

In a note to clients, Dresdner Kleinwort analysts, who have a 'sell' stance on the stock, said the change 'will likely cause disruption within the management team at what is a difficult time for all banks.'

hope some of you followed me .... if not, then your losses so to speak

closed position although after it had already bounced well off its bottom ..... a very nice profit nevertheless, and certainly AL. will stay on my watchlist for a further shorting opportunity .... 700 looks a serious point to consider, being a round number and where sp nudges back up to 50 dma

Dow is struggling seriously to hold above 12500, and have shorted same.
Am also short of SOLA, and though did that too early at 276, am tempted to short further for all sorts of good chart reasons
Contemplated shorting here (AL.) but may have missed the boat.

would happlily consider other suggestions

Separately, A&L said its chief executive David Bennett has taken temporary leave of absence due to illness, and that finance director Chris Rhodes has taken on the role of acting chief executive.

when will it stop.

was not brave enough to short the other day ..... with hindsight, perhaps should have thought more clearly and done so with a guaranteed stop.

anyway, AL. now looks like an interesting but quite brave long punt ...... sp has fallen off a cliff, which of course does not mean that it has yet hit the bottom ..... however, it would not be surprising to see the bears coming in to take their profits and/or a predator may even conclude that at this level (455/460), the company is worth absorbing

Reckon you could be right Cynic. Looking at Level 2, AL. may well be turning upwards.

tricky call re takeover. I think there are better prospects in other sectors in this respect. Not so sure the shares are cheap enough as I think additional writedowns will be seen. The idea is right but, its the execution that worries me. lol

shall now polish the halo! ..... after some thought i bought in at 460 and am delighted to see sp now at about 485/490 ...... now need to determine at what price i should cash the profit

OUT at 482.5 = 22p clear of all costs ..... that will make dinner taste even better

for once i got this right and shorted at 15 a point over night. Picked up a nice four figure sum which goes some way to covering my RIO short. The mkt still seems relatively resiliant, albeit with low volume, baring mind the news US CPI news. Not brave enoughto lay anymore shorts

if you are short RIO, surely you have now made back nearly all your losses

Cynic I wish, it needs to fall another 444 points to break even. I have been taking profits at the edges with covering longs so the loss is not as big as it looks. Will start start averaging up the closer we get to the end of march and hopefully claw some of it back. Tempted to go long on CSR at 417, one of your holdings i believe

haven't held CSR for several weeks ..... it got weeded out and have not followed of late