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US Stock tumbled for the fourth straight session as the Spanish terrorists attacks brought home what dangerous times we live in. Shell / Sakhalin Energy said it had signed a 23-year deal with Japanese refiner Toho Gas to supply liquefied natural gas from its Sakhalin II project Enterprise Inns to Enterprise Inns said it is buying the 83.2 percent of rival Unique Pub it does not already own in a 609 million pounds which will make it Britain's biggest pub group. Telewest sales edge ahead and it says it has continued customer growth. Aventis, Sanofi makes 47bln Euro bid for the company, Novartis also considers a 'get to together' with the company.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT
Fairplace Consulting (I), Heywood Williams (F), Keller Group (F), Shore Capital (F), T Clarke (F),	Apollo Group (Q2), 19:00 Treasury Budget Feb 12:00 AM PPI Jan 0.4% & Feb, 13:30 Business Inventories Jan - 0.4% 13:30 Current Account Q4 -$136.2B, 13:45 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 95.4

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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US Zone

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Currency Calc

Updated 3/11 for Friday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 3/12
UP Above 10,300
DN Below 10,100

Continued Sell-Off
Dow holds for most of session, but falters again late in the day.

From prior commentary, "...The index has now taken a more than 300 point plunge in three days...Watch for either a reversal or a consolidation to form at the lows tomorrow..."
The Dow actually trended slowly higher for much of the session today, forming a tight, sloping consolidation at the lows of the 5 and 15 Minute Charts. However, as was the case yesterday, the Dow sped up of the process and got another downside break from an intraday consolidation, which led to another steep decline.

Looking at the Daily Chart shows that the break of the major lower trend line at 10,550 was indeed a major fulcrum in the charts. The index has sold off over 600 points off the highs and is now approaching a key 50% Retracement point in the charts. Look for the index to either hold or reverse at 10,100 tomorrow. Otherwise, a break below 10,100 will make for another push lower within the major downmove.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear short term upper trend line across the highs of the recent decline, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Look for continued short term weakness below this line, unless 10,180 is crossed to the upside.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Short the Dow from 10,550 and will move stops down to 10,300 to lock in 250 points of profit. We will stay Short below 10,100 and will wait to enter Longs until 10,300 is crossed to the upside; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each held firmly throughout most of the day before finally giving way late in the session. Look for either a reaction rally or a consolidation to occur tomorrow. *

Summary

The Dow ended the day at the session lows after holding strong for much of the session. The Dow dropped another three-digit amount and will likely bounce at 50% Retracement at 10,100 tomorrow. Look for either a reaction rally or a consolidation to form in this area tomorrow.

FRIDAYS FTSE PP
R2 4589
R1 4517
PP 4473
S1 4401
S2 4357

fTSE close was below s3! lost 4.6 in the auction, due to the severity of the drop on Thu hard to call a pattern to rade so will be reilant upon pp and signals, big gap to the upsde to fill, if dow can close and show some strength above 320 pos test of 380, if not cont weakness to 4400 imho!

edit -28 open atm

morning .. Snowy start to the day!

Still short SMWH, now Logica (after Oracle results) and Bookham. IMO smaller cap stocks & techs have a long way to fall yet.

Morning all

It seems that this time everyone seem to be ready for this "bit" of snow, and things are still moving out there!

FT passed S1, and then returned - now it seems to be pull back slowly. I wonder for how long.

I've been please that the majority of my holdings have not dropped much and one or two have actually gone up!

Morning all,

FTSE did a 3 box reversal on the P@F chart when it hit 4400.

If it prints 4350 we make a double bottom.
It doesn't get Bearish until we print 4300 and even then
it could be a Bear Trap. Market knows that folk look at these
charts, and sometimes sets traps to find buyers or sellers depending
on which way it wants to go at these levels.

It's getting tricky, but the trend is still basically up.
I know it doesn't feel like it at the moment. :-)

Melnibone.

I have to admit I agree with you melnibone about the trend being up. I thought I would have been hit harder by the drop than I have - and have been surprised by the couple of shares have actually gone up over the last 2 days!

Swing chart is tying in with the P@F chart.
Last swing low was circa 4360.
I would advise caution in margining up to the short side
whilst we remain above these levels.

This could easily be just a healthy retracement with the market
having fun setting Bull and Bear traps whilst it shakes folk
out and wipes out newbie traders that are using too much
margin with poor money management and nil discipline.

Remember, if in doubt, stay out. Don't try to be hero and be
afraid of missing something. There's fresh opportunities every
day, but that's no use to you if you've blown your pot.

Melnibone.

FTSE now back above 4400.

Think where the profit is. It's with the Bears.

If the US starts to recover then Bears will start to book
profits before they melt away. This would result in a Bear squeeze
that would be chased up by the Bulls who are watching for it
and could result into just as violent a move to the upside.

If the US starts to break down again then more Bulls will be
frightened into liquidating holdings.

Catalyst for either scenario may be the Michigan consumer
confidence numbers this afternoon. Until then, we are still
above the swing lows.

Melnibone

Sorry if I sound like I'm preaching to the traders who
are more experienced than me here. But I think that there
are a lot of inexperienced traders who read this thread
and it doesn't do any harm to repeat a few basics and
point out some of the pitfalls before they fall into
them.

If you want me to shut up, then just say so.

Melnibone.

Preach away Melnibone. I am newbie and I am hurting. But I dont think of myself as ill disciplined, just carried away. Still things are improving, do you suggest I just sit it out????

Jim

Only you can answer that, Jim.

If you haven't got a reason or a plan for taking a position,
then perhaps it would be better if you didn't take one?

If you already have positions, has the the situation or the
reasons changed that caused you to take those positions?
If not, then your reasons and positions are still valid.

Melnibone.

mel some good points i,m sure many appreciate ur comments, i am too busy on ft100 thread in traders rooms and esp today trading hard, keep it up and hope ur ok!

Thanks for the replies guys.

Doing OK thanks TP.

Playing it the contrarian way and staying with the main trend.
Scalping blue chips when they get hammered down and then chasing
the Bears back up.

Melnibone.

been doing same as you but caught a few times, looking long later but is it dow 10k or 10300 first is all i need to know! Mised bulk of move down even though was calling it this week, :OI Trader buddies done well on ft100 thread!

Keep giving us novices your advice Melnibone.Really good stuff - just what we want to hear.
sw

I seem to have a lot more blues

This is my biggest surprise - I purchased BT recently to hold for no more than a few weeks, and the profit is increasing despite then last 2 days!

little woman, BT held a conference with some analysts and
has received broker upgrades ref it's broadband strategy.

If we hadn't had the last few days I feel it would be well up.
On the flip side, a lot of TA guys are calling this down
longer term as funds sell out every time it gets towards
190/200p.

Just goes to show that nobody really knows and you should
trust your own decisions.

Melnibone.

Melnibone, I have a friend who works for BT managing the engineers that install broadband for BT. He tells me they can't cope with the workload, as they are getting so many orders. They are all working 6 day weeks and sometime 13 hour days and still can't keep up with the new orders!

Mel,

Keep posting, it is useful advice whether experienced or not.

Are you still watching GSK, it all but touched 1050p earlier and your 1000p post a month or so back continues to look increasingly accurate - I'm still short term trading it (with some success) but still plan to enter for LTBH in the near future.

 

2970

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2940

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2910

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2880

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2790

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2670

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2580

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2550

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2520

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2490

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2460

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2400

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2370

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2340

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2310

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2280

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2250

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2220

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2190

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2160

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2130

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2100

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2070

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2010

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1980

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1890

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1860

Eustox50 PnF now showing a sell. But if you check back along this Bull Run

then each time it did it, it was a Bear Trap.

Lot of my PnF charts are showing the same thing.

To repeat myself, be wary of going heavily short here. Do the same as TP and

wait for confirmation and take a chunk out of the middle.

Better to take a smaller profit than get caught against the trend.

Don't let Mr. Market make a monkey out of you.

Melnibone.

Still watching GSK, Fundamentalist.

1000p isn't far away now, is it?

It's nice when I get something right for a change. :-)

Melnibone.

TP trading FTSE 100 myself at the moment with 4410 support and 4450 ceiling

I got caught yesterday as well TP.

When LGEN hit 98p support and the FTSE stopped falling at 4460,
I bought for the bounce retest of 100p and FTSE 4500.

Instead, everything dropped again and it came back up to test
4460. :-(

Got out for the loss of the spread in the end.

'Dems de breaks'. ;-)

Melnibone.

I just got an e-mail from egg - they have a introductory offer of 4.75% for new internet savings accounts (6 months) and then back to the same (current 4%) as on existing savings accounts!

Because I already have an account, the opening the new account was easy and took about 30 seconds - the only catch is they won't accept money from existing egg accounts! So I transfered my money out of the old account to my current account, and then transfered the money back staight away!

Good move Little Woman!
Glad to see it's a little blue screen-wise now - 8.30am was pretty rough
but will be interesting to see where the cousins across the water
send the indices this afternoon.
I took one look at yesterday round lunchtime and turned the computer
off, no funds to buy anything going cheap so no point watching
the carnage if I didn't have to!

litte woman hi again from the bear. try haliax they are doing a layaway system which will pay 6% for 12mts min 25 TO 250 A month

LW,
I actually do some trading through XEST ( not my only broker) based on my EGG internet investment account. Found it to be efficient with good prices so far. Get the good rate on the reserve funds if ever have any free! Have never experienced any dealing problems.
sw

Royce, I have my current account with halifax. I don't like put regular sums away as I don't have a regular income - my egg account is my emergency funds account, to cover me when money I'm expecting is late, (often) or the occations when I have no "income" at all!

I'll take a look at the Halifax account, as 6% is worth considering.

Oh well that was short lived! I checked out the Halifax and to get the 6.05% I have to open 2 new accounts, and go and produce all my ID, and proof or address again for each account - even though I have already done all that with them last year when I opened my current account. Trouble is I don't have time for the 30 mile round trip to go to the branch, parking charges and 2 hours out of my day.

At least with egg, I didn't have to do anything except access the internet.......

ThePlayboy - Could you tell me where I can find some info on R2, R1, PP, S1, S2.
Is it a chart indicator of some kind ?
Thanks in advance

Croc sorry just seen ur post as u know i live in the TR:) no pos atm await figs

nostromo go to crocs site snappytrader,com for info on pp,s etc, too long to explain and am a little busy atm!

nostromo, take a look at the thread: PIVOTS - Daily Indices and FTSE 100 & 250 Stocks :http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/ShowPostList?fID=1&tID=2684

R stands for resistance point and S support point. These are the levels that shares tend to bounce off!

Am I the only one that has problems with banking services?

I have a Co-operative business account, and finally decided to log into the new internet service as they are withdrawing the old one (which I never had any problems with. Had problems loggin in, ended ring the help line as the password didn't work. Tried to change the password, and it didn't want to know. I suppose I should wait 30 days because it'll make me change it then anyway - more passwords to remember! When I finally looked around the site, I couldn't figure out how to look at a statement (which is all I ever use it for!) I ended up loggin into the old site - much quicker and easier, trouble is they withdraw it next week.

If I have to ring them up everytime I try and log in because I can't remember the password, I may as well just go back to telephone banking!

LW
It seems like that the banking service has the same problems as the Co-op stores. Lots of room for improvement!!

nostromo
As Playboy says ...
http://www.snappytrader.com/ta/ta.htm#pivot
D.

littlewoman, also consider ING Direct, 4.5% currently.

Kayak - just opened an account with ING Direct - that was easy! I didn't have to produce any ID or proof of address.

I think I'm going to start a thread on Banking accounts!

Agree, ING is offering a good deal and easy to use plus
interest that appears monthly and transactions that get
done quite quickly - a thumbs up savings account!

Yes lw, the first deposit can only be by cheque from your current a/c hence name checked, and you have to wait for them to write to you before accessing your account hence address checked.

I've been so busy trying to doing some "personal admin" I didn't notice that the FTSE is up 18+

That's sometimes the best way, little woman, as long as
you enter a position for sound reasons.

When I sit watching every little tick I sometimes get
influenced by the noise and take a small profit too early.
When I have to go away and do some chores I'm often
happily surprised by the nice gain I when I get back.
Took a long on SBRY this morning, came back after lunch
and took the profit after the Confidence numbers.

Melnibone.

FTSE is currently back up and stalled where it bounced to
yesterday.

Check out the 2 day chart at the top of this thread.

Melnibone.