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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 8th March (LLOY)     

Crocodile - 07 Mar 2004 11:58

UK PreMarket Futures FTSE -1 DAX -5 DOW +1 S&P -0.3 Nasdaq +2

1 Day

2 Day

 5 Day

UK News

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Gold/Bond Pivots Markets  Futures Translate
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1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei  -34    Hang Seng -156  Asia News

DAX CAC  Euro News
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EADS swung to a larger-than-expected net profit in 2003, as a strong fourth quarter at its Airbus plane-making unit and a drop in charges offset losses in its space division

Lloyds reported annual profit ahead of forecasts and said it had decided against buying back shares to give itself flexibility for acquisitions and maintained its full-year dividend at 34.2 pence a share. Profit was 4.35 billion pounds up from 2.61 beating the average forecast profit of 4.27 billion pounds

IMI engineering beat forecasts with an 8.4 percent rise in profits to 142.6 million pounds and said there was no change to the trend of modest improvement in some markets.

Taylor Nelson market research firm said its profit rose 13 percent to 32.4 million pounds, and said it expects its markets to improve in 2004.

Travis Perkins building materials reported 2003 profits 10 million below forecasts despite a 18.2 percent rise to162.7 million pounds but said 2004 had started well and it was well placed to make further progress during the year.

Bovis Homes reported a forecast beating 17.5 percent rise in annual profits and said the new year had started well.

John Wood oil drilling services firm reported flat annual profits in line with forecasts at $137.2 , and repeated a warning that delays to new deepwater projects would hold it back in 2004. The company also announced a new contract win in the Gulf of Mexico.

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT

 ICM Computer (I), Microgen (I), Town Centre Securities (I), BioProgress (F), Bovis Homes (F), Candover Investment (F), Clinical Computing (F), Fisher (James) & Sons (F), IDN Telecom (F), IMI (F), Intertek Testing Services (F), John Wood Group (F), Lloyds TSB (F), Taylor Nelson (F), Travis Perkins (F), WSP Group (F):  Feb PPI (09:30) - ODPM Jan House Prices (09:30)

 

EADS EADS NV(F) Veolia Environnement SA (F)

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

Data

Calendar

US Zone

HTML Edit

Currency Calc

Crocodile - 07 Mar 2004 11:58 - 2 of 31

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United Kingdom - Calendar  8th - 12th March

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United States  ()

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Europe & World ()

 ICM Computer (I), Microgen (I), Town Centre Securities (I), BioProgress (F), Bovis Homes (F), Candover Investment (F), Clinical Computing (F), Fisher (James) & Sons (F), IDN Telecom (F), IMI (F), Intertek Testing Services (F), John Wood Group (F), Lloyds TSB (F), Taylor Nelson (F), Travis Perkins (F), WSP Group (F)Feb PPI (09:30) ODPM Jan House Prices (09:30)

 

EADS EADS NV(F) Veolia Environnement SA (F)

Glisten (I), Hays (I), Linx Printing (I), Redrow (I), Aegis Group (F),

Afa Systems (F), Bodycote (F), Cairn Energy (F), Chorion (F), Countrywide Assured (F), Ennstone (F), French Connection (F), Litho Supplies (F), Lookers (F), Metalrax Group (F), Peterhouse Group (F), SIG (F), Jan industrial/manufacturing production & Trade (09:30)

Albertson's (Q4) Interpublic (Q4) Kroger (Q4)

Degussa (F), Volkswagen (F) T online International(F) GPC Biotech AG GPC Biotech AG(F) Deutsche Post AG Deutsche Post AG(F) CNP Assurances (F), Neopost (F)

Smiths Group (I), Amlin (F), Balfour Beatty (F), Carillion (F),Concurrent Technologies (F), Countrywide Assured (F),

Future Network (F), Interserve (F), Mayborn Group (F), Schroder Ventures IT (F), Shore Capital (F), SMG (F),Traffic Figures - BAA Centrica (AGM), Inflexion (AGM). London Merchant Securities (AGM)

Energy Corp CMS Energy Q4 Comverse Technology Inc Comverse TechnologiesQ4

13:30 Trade Balance Jan - $41.8B 15:00 Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.4%

A M B Generali Holding AG(F), E.ON AG (F) Adidas-Salomon AG (F),

Deutsche Telekom AG (I)

Publicis Groupe SA (F), Atos Origin (F) Credit Agricole SA (F)

Ex Dividend: Albion (4.30p), Alumasc Group (3.0), Anglo American (24.96), Avis Europe (2.6), Blick (9.50), Bwd Secs (12.00), Chrysalis Group (1.00), Close Brothers (9), Cosalt (12.50), Go-Ahead Group (11.00), HBOS (20.60), Lincat Group (5.80), Reuters Group (6.15), Rio Tinto (18.68), Reed Health Group (0.73), Regent Inns (1.82), Rolls-Royce (5.00), Royal Bank of Scotland (35.7), Scottish American Investm (1.42), Tops Estates (1.05),Treatt (5.70),Windsor (1.45)

Argonaut Games (I), NeuTec Pharma (I) Alfred McAlpine (F), Alvis (F), Amec (F), Amlin (F), Biocompatibles (F), Cattles Holdings (F), Flomerics Group (F), Incisive Media (F), InterContinental Hotels Group (F), Johnson Service Group (F), Laird Group (F), Lambert Howarth Group (F), Royal and Sun Alliance (F), Shire Pharmaceuticals (F), Sportech (F), First Choice (AGM), Lpa Group (AGM)

McDermott International (Q4) National Semiconductor (Q3) Oracle Corp Oracle (Q3) El Paso Corp El Paso (Q4)

13:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb 13:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb 13:30 Initial Claims 03/06 345K 13:30 Retail Sales Feb - 0.6% 13:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 0.5% 19:00 Treasury Budget Feb -$100.0B

Bayerische Hypo-und Vereinsbank AG(F) Bayerische Motoren-Werke AG Bayerische Motoren-Werke AG sales results K+S AG(F) Salzgitter AG (F) Aixtron AG (F) IDS Scheer AG (F) Celanese AG (F)

Casino Guichard-Perrachon (F)

Fairplace Consulting (I), Heywood Williams (F), Keller Group (F), Shore Capital (F), T Clarke (F),

Apollo Group (Q2)12:00 AM Core PPI Jan 0.1% 12:00 AM PPI Jan 0.4% 13:30 Business Inventories Jan - 0.4% 13:30 Core PPI Feb 13:30 Current Account Q4 -$136.2B 13:30 PPI Feb 9:45 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 95.4 19:00 Treasury Budget Feb

 

 

Provisional Calendar For UK Equities  The Week Following  15th - 19th March

AAlea Group Holdings (F), Headlam Group (F), Medical Solutions (F), Profile Therapeutics (F), ROK Property Solutions (F), Roxboro (F), Spirax (F),

AInterior Services (I), Abbot Group (F), Benfield Group (F), BPP Holdings (F), Celltech (F), Computacenter (F), Delta (F), Gowrings (F), Highway Insurance (F), Interior Services (F), iTouch (F), John Menzies (F), Mersey Docks (F), Spectris (F), Spring Group (F), Staffware (F), Weir Group (F), Wyevale Garden Centres (F), Workspace Group (AGM)

Costain Group (F), Huveaux (F), Johnston Press (F), Kingfisher (F), Parity Group (F), Pixology (F), Restaurant Group (F), RPS Group (F), Slough Estates (F), Tikit (F), Xaar (F), Amersham (EGM)

FW Thorpe (I), Manganese Bronze (I), Cobham (F), Corus Group (F), Derwent Valley (F), Geest (F), House of Fraser (F), IP2IPO Group (F), Premier Farnell (F), Trafficmaster (F), William Morrison (F), Albion (AGM)Ingenta (AGM)

Toad (F)

 

Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead  -  Sunday 7th March

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Banks, builders and insurers dominate results in the week ahead.MondayWM Morrison will finally own supermarket chain Safeway on Monday as they pay shareholders one Morrison share and 60p in cash.

Antofogasta copper mining group is expected to take their place in the FTSE 100.Lloyds sale by of some of its overseas operations including its New Zealand banking and insurance operations last year should dominate the banking group's full year results. Analysts expect the group to report pre-tax profits of 4.2bn against 3.8bn last time but may well surprise on the upside. It is unsure whether it will maintain its dividend and opinions are mixed whether the bank will embark on a share buyback program.IMI reorganisation and cost cutting could lead to profits rising to 138mn against 131.5m last time and to report good cash generation during the year. Taylor Nelson market research group is expected to unveil a strong rise in annual profits after it said in January it would outperform the market in the long-term. Bovis Homes without doubt will produce good results following the rest of the sector. They are expected to give a good dividend rise as did Persimmon & Wimpy on profits14% higher at 120mBioprogress whose shares have doubled this year should announce a loss of 0.5m when they release annual results Tuesday

Hays will update us on the performance of the recruitment market and give a timetable for the sale of the group's UK mail and express operations. It is expected to report a 4.5% drop in interim pre-tax profits to 84.5m and hopefully will confirm that its personnel and UK mail divisions are performing in line with expectations.Redrow could announce a big dividend payout after reporting strong interim results. The FTSE100 quarterly reshuffle will take place after the close of business with Enterprise Inns likely to move up to replace Foreign & Colonial.Wednesday

Smiths Group half-year profits are expected to fall from 146m to 130m. Investors will hope there is news of acquisitions to add to its medical and aerospace divisions as the lack of growth is hitting the group's share price.Balfour Beatty reports having already indicated that the loss of work from Network Rail would not materially impact its results. Its order book is now in excess of 6b and it is expected to report annual profits of 130m.Carillion also report but is expected to fare much worse from the Network Rail decision. Thursday

InterContinental Hotels is set to report a 7.6% drop in full year profits to 230m but the group is expected to say that is more positive on the outlook for the hotel industry. So far this year there has been a pick up in the US, with Asia and the UK but Europe is still slow.Royal & Sun Alliance should clarify its position on the extra 300m it requires to strengthen its insurance claim reserves. If it can match the progress of Aviva it should release a rise in profits up to 358m from 174m. Amec releases full year results after already saying additional track renewal should recover the 100m lost after Network Rail took contracts back in-house.Shire Pharmaceuticals are expected to produce profits of 214m and sales of 670m. They should also release an update on its organisational restructuring and American site consolidation.

Friday

Psion's EGM could see some lively opposition for the approval for the sale of its stake in Symbian to Nokia

Thoughts

Last week markets were optimistic that the U.S payrolls data on Friday would show that the worlds biggest economy was still healthy. Unfortunately payrolls rose only 21,000, much less than the expected gain of about 125,000. The FTSE finished the week up 0.7% at 4,547 still below the 20-month high of 4,566.2 after the disappointing jobs data. Since January there has been a feeling that markets have risen far enough for the time being. This can be seen as good company results fail to impress the city and anything less have been severely punished.

This current feeling that the market is overvalued could mean that it is increasing difficult for further gains. If so we should be in for a period of consolidation with a clearly defined trading range as in the chart above.

I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead! 

David (Crocodile) David@SnappyTrader.com  www.SnappyTrader.com

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

 

Crocodile - 07 Mar 2004 11:58 - 3 of 31

Sunday Newspapers

sundaypaper.gifNew Fears For Faltering American Economy: There are renewed fears over jobs in the United States after the latest figures showed that just 21,000 new jobs were created in February. First-time buyers are being priced out of 80% of British towns. The Halifax said owning a property in 531 of the UK's 667 postal towns is now out of reach for people on average salaries for their region. GORDON Brown should consider hiking taxes and the Bank of England must continue to lift interest rates, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday. STERLING rocketed against the dollar yesterday as it emerged the United States economy is still failing to create new jobs, prompting Wall Street to delay its expectations of rate hikes at the Federal Reserve. Germany's first IPO in year and a half ends in shambles

SUNDAY TIMES Retail star returns to Moss Bros Regulator to examine BT split Lloyd's to report 1 billion profits Shell fails to calm City fears ITV duo face the chop over Green's payoff Psion hits back at its critics Stagecoach rides into Connex line furore

Sharewatch: SMG

Agenda: William Lewis: Radice revs up to drive M&S into the unknown Britain's 50 most unloved companies, AWG Eircom heavyweights dine out on biggest cheques in town

The Andrew Davidson Interview: Chorion, TV tycoon who lives like a lord Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Nestor Healthcare Scottish bank profits up, Lloyds TSB Tesco checks out DVDs Working space, Chorion Should you buy shares in Irish Continental Group? Lord Alli's working day, Chorion Sharewatch: Jarvis

Vital Statistics, Chorion IAWS's bakery profits rise Helical Bar, Property boss builds up his holding

Nestor healthcare recruitment group has had a trying time, seeing its shares rising to more than 600p during the 1990s, but falling to 196p at close of business on Friday. Investment bank Schroders said the group's problems have not all been self-inflicted. The creation by the NHS of an in-house nursing agency cut Nestor's turnover by 16% over the last year, but the group has diversified elsewhere. It has also appointed a new finance director and chairman. If the management cannot get things right, someone else is likely to offer an alternative financial approach. Buy.
SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Psion holders rebel over Symbian Investor threat to DFS deal Lonmin review includes sale option Shell board shocked FCUK shrugs off boycott ITV directors face axe over Green's 15m pay-off

City comment: Pitman is the pits, ITV Serco's bob-a-jobber D-Day for Morrison, Safeway Shell's seismic shock

Cairn Energy have done well in recent weeks after it announced a transformational discovery in its Rajasthan development in India. Shares were 255p just over two years ago, which means investors who bought the stock then would have gained more than 160% at the latest price of 674.1p. Nevertheless, with a second well being drilled, there is more upside to be had. Keep buying.

OBSERVER GKN boss says no to BAE Now Shell faces US legal storm Mytravel directors get massive payouts They think it's all over at Manchester United. It's not Sainsbury United Prosser in bid to salvage reputation

Sainsbury Eyes on a crown Shell Transport City claims its biggest trophy yet Prayer on a G-string at Marks On the nose with Coral, William Hill Shareholders put the boot in, Shell Transport

Taylor Woodrow offers excellent growth prospects. Last week, the group's pre-tax profits rose 32% to 324m with a dividend* increase of 20.3%. Broker Merrill Lynch points to 25m in merger savings following the company's acquisition last year of fellow housebuilder Wilson Connolly, otherwise known as Wilcon. The company has in the past two years moved out of commercial property and wider construction and is now a clean housebuilder at a time when housing shortages are protecting bumper margins.

MAIL ON SUNDAY Enterprise Inns poised for Footsie Pub firm to move up with Antofagasta Brothers top up stake in Odeon chain Hands takes a pay cut Banker leaves cash in Terra Firma Happy new year for estate agency, Countrywide Assured Default fears on 1.7bn Argentina IMF debt expected Ministry of Sound Nightclub empire runs up 5m loss Hemscott dangers scare away fund managers Former S&N pubs sold in 500m deal Triumph for Bloor Holdings

Scandal of Shell's oil bonus, More heads may roll Carlton trio could be forced to quit over 27m pay-offs Safeway through the Footsie checkout Deadline for Telegraph offers the 23 March Morrisons fuels the war on prices Clash at bank as chief quits, ABN Amro Rebels in 'bloody' battle for the tunnel Abramovich facing huge back-tax bill HSBC loses 22.6m on HQ sale P&O boosted by stake in partner

Hemscott survived the dotcom crash but now Marlborough UK Equity Growth fund's has sold its 500,000-share secret stake, equivalent to 1.56%, in January. It had 6.1m in the bank but last year but burnt through 1.2m and Investors will have to wait till 2005 for a profit, forecast at 300,000. That values the firm at 46.5 times future earnings.

INDEPENDENT  Leeds Utd 10m in debt to taxman and Customs Green's 15m could cost ITV far more

Lloyds TSB, The Week Ahead: City frets over Black Horse payout Marconi Corporation The Lowdown: Toughest of the tough talkers

Mowlem remains a solid buy and is, at Friday's close of 205.25p, looking cheap. Mowlem released impressive full-year results last week, with a 2.5bn order book and an above-expectations 37% profits rise to 45.2m. There are concerns about whether the group can repeat the impressive rise in profits, helped by selling investments in two Government projects. But Mowlem stands a good chance of getting in on the act with rebuilding contracts in Iraq, with the US tipped to name winners of the second round of contracts at the end of March or early next month. The signs so far look good.

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Shell investors demand more changes Transport Lloyds TSB profits will boost total to 24bn UK banks should learn the lesson of HSBC and go global

Fighting talk, BAE Systems

Lloyds TSB to beat rivals with 64% profits rise Time to come out of his Shell

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy - National Grid (NGT), Kensington (KGN), Systems Union (SUG), Oystertec (OYS) and Stanley Gibbons (SGI). Sell - Skyepharma (SKP).Tips Updates: M&S (MKS) (keep buying) - TT Electronics (TTG) (keep buying) - Hardman (HNR) (keep buying) - Cardpoint (CASH) (buy) - MyTravel (MT) (sell).Company Results: Buy: HBOS (HBOS) - Legal and General (LGEN) - Provident Financial (PFG) - Gallaher (GLH) - Acambis (ACM) - Estates & General (ESGN), Sell: Trinity Mirror (TNI) - Morse (MOR) - LogicaCMG (LOG) - Aggreko (AGK) - Hilton (HG) - Rentokil Initial (RTO).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy Sibir Energy (SBE) at 27p - Daejan Holdings (DJAN) at 23.37.5p - Hampson Industries (HAMP) at 23.75p - Statpro (SOG) at 37p - James Fisher (FSJ) at 311.5p.Updates: Hold Pennant International (PEN) and Stanley Gibbons (SGI), Buy Tadpole Technology (TAD). Take profits at Retail Decisions (RTD).

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

Crocodile - 07 Mar 2004 11:59 - 4 of 31

ftse.gif

Pugugly - 07 Mar 2004 14:20 - 5 of 31

Croc:- As usual an excellent background for the week ahead. Makes 'Bullshare's site "a must visit" - especialy as the old link I had for yours seems to be disabled.

Please keep up the good work - Much appreciated.


Crocodile - 07 Mar 2004 14:33 - 6 of 31

Thanks Pugugly
Had problems with the FTSE company complaining I had registered www.ftsedow.com. The new site is www.snappytrader.com
D.

bartandlisa - 07 Mar 2004 15:41 - 7 of 31

does anybody have up to date info on ftse valuations, with the re-shuffle coming up i was interested on which companies were borderline to fall out and go in???

ThePlayboy - 07 Mar 2004 15:59 - 8 of 31


draw?startDate=04%2F03%2F04&period=2D&ep



MONDAYS FTSE PP

R2 4590
R1 4568
PP 4545
S1 4524
S2 4500

Ftse close below Fri pp! 2 day ftse chart broken to the downside on Fri but a swift bounce off the low, pos uptrend again unless 4540 is broken imho! No doubt banks will decide direction with lloy reporting



draw?startDate=05%2F12%2F03&period=3M&pl

WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4599
R1 4573
PP 4540
S1 4515
S2 4482

For next week a possible bearish wedge forming, looking to 4530 down and 4570 up for a break! Tgt down s2 imho, although pattern is bearish ftse very strong and Dow holding 10520, until a decision is made either way will be trading the ranges, but a breakout of the range should occur this week as its running out of room!

ThePlayboy - 07 Mar 2004 15:59 - 9 of 31

Updated 3/5 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 3/8
UP Above 10,620
DN Below 10,550

Volatile Day
Dow trades in wild swings, ends day slightly higher.

From prior commentary, "...The consolidation has formed at the lows of the recent decline, thereby implying further weakness to come..."
The Dow traded in quite a wild and volatile fashion today, as the day was filled with rallies, declines, and even gaps, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index eventually ended the day slightly higher by just 8 points.

Looking at the Daily and 60 Minute Charts show that the Dow continues to hug the major lower trend line of the wide range at 10,550. Look for the index to continue trading sideways above this line until a break occurs. A downside break through 10,550 will lead to a sharp decline, while an upside push through 10,620 should lead to strength Monday. Watch this range closely.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow is holding at a clear lower trend line formed beneath the lows of the 1 Minute Chart. A break of the line at 10,595 will indicate weakness Monday morning.

Medium Term Dow

The Dow saw unusual action today, as the index gapped up in the middle of the morning past our stop of 10,600 to 10,631, which is where we covered our position, giving us an 11 point gain. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will watch 10,550 down, and 10,620 up, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each filled morning gaps, followed by volatile sideways trading. Each index has remained within a clear, but volatile range, which we will watch closely Monday. *

Summary

The Dow trades in wild swings today, ending the day slightly higher for the day. Volatility has increased significantly in the last two weeks, which could be a precursor to a future move. Watch 10,550 down, and 10,620 up Monday.

Melnibone - 07 Mar 2004 16:31 - 10 of 31

Afternoon all,

Lot of folk going to be watching the range for a break
one way or the other this week.

S@P and FTSE have both put another 'X' on the P@F chart.
Unsure whether this is new leg up or a Bull trap. If you
are waiting to sell then it's known that these new X's are
where folk are watching to buy for a move higher. So where
better to sell and get top dollar for your wares?
Need to be careful here, there's been a big one year run-up
with hardly any retrace to really speak of.

Wednesday should be interesting. Thers's some big companies
paying divis. Lately it's been a case of buy on the rumour and
sell on the fact, and folk have just been taking the divi and
booking profits from the share price appreciation.

HBOS, RBS, RTR, RR, AAM, RTZ, have all had good run-ups lately.
If that little lot go down, on top of the divi that will be taken
from their share price, that'll be a fair few FTSE points to come
off before you start.

As TP said, definately a week to be aware of the ranges.

Melnibone.

little woman - 07 Mar 2004 21:45 - 11 of 31

Evening all,

Just got back from the Share Club meeting and I have instructions to buy some shares first thing in the morning (for the long term portfolio) as we have quite a bit of spare cash (sold 2 holdings since the last meeting, at a profit). Plus a third buy if a share drops to a certain price! Will let you know what they are once I've carried out the instructions!

Crocodile - 08 Mar 2004 07:41 - 12 of 31

Morning all, tell us all LW!

Stan - 08 Mar 2004 07:46 - 13 of 31

LLOYDS TSB GROUP


PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS

Results

Profit before tax increased by 1,730 million, or 66 per cent, to
4,348 million.

Profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1,464 million, or
82 per cent, to 3,254 million.

Earnings per share increased by 82 per cent to 58.3p.

Post-tax return on average shareholders' equity 38.5 per cent.

Total capital ratio 11.3 per cent, tier 1 capital ratio 9.5 per cent.

Final dividend of 23.5p per share, making a total of 34.2p for the
year (2002: 34.2p).

Results, excluding changes in economic assumptions, investment variance and
profit on sale of businesses

Profit before tax decreased by 126 million, or 4 per cent, to 3,380
million.

Earnings per share decreased by 6 per cent to 41.5p.

Economic profit increased by 4 per cent to 1,553 million.

Post-tax return on average shareholders' equity 27.4 per cent.


Key achievements

A new strategic focus on organic growth has been implemented, and a
number of non-core overseas businesses have been sold.

The Group has improved its market share in many key product areas,
including credit cards, personal loans, bank savings, and UK life and
pensions.

Excluding the impact of disposals, customer lending grew by 10 per
cent to 135 billion and customer deposits increased by 6 per cent to 116
billion.

The rate of decline in the Group's net interest margin has slowed.

Strict cost control has been maintained. Excluding the impact of
acquisitions and the customer redress provision, expenses decreased by 1
per cent.

Asset quality remains strong.

Profit before tax from UK Retail Banking and Mortgages, excluding the
impact of the provision for customer redress, increased by 21 per cent, as
a result of 9 per cent growth in income and flat costs.

New business profitability in Scottish Widows increased by 13 per cent, as
a result of market share growth and an improved new business margin.

In Wholesale and International Banking, positive results are emerging
from the improved co-ordination between our Corporate and Financial Markets
businesses.

Capital ratios significantly improved. Scottish Widows remains on
track to pay a 2004 dividend to Lloyds TSB.




Pick the bones out of that then.

little woman - 08 Mar 2004 08:32 - 14 of 31

Morning all

Purchased WSH & JRVS first thing for the investment club. JRVS took off straight after my purchase!

We also wanted to purchase SHEL, but hoped with all the bad press the price would go down, but it hasn't. Limit order entered, in case it does drop back before the next meeting otherwise, more money to spend then, and reveiw the purchase then.

little woman - 08 Mar 2004 09:22 - 15 of 31

I was going to make a comment about LLOY - but after my experience last week with LLOY (and funny enough something just as bad with ANL, to which I have been trying for over 6 months to move an account to from BARC, which I have had major problems with over the last 2 years) - I have come to the conclusion that UK Banks have some serious customer service issues that show just how poorly run they are!

Melnibone - 08 Mar 2004 09:33 - 16 of 31

Morning all,

Sold 33% of my SKP's this morning to lock some profit in.
I like to set the tone for the week, hopefully, by starting
off on the right foot.

I wonder if we'll come out of this 10 point Ftse trading
range before big daddy US wakes up and gets out of bed
to see what the children have been getting up to. :-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 08 Mar 2004 09:49 - 17 of 31

I see the BOJ have been selling the Yen.

Greenspan and Snow won't like that with their US deficit.

Lucky they don't have any oil fields, or the FED would get
Bush to go in and remove their weapons of mass destruction. ;-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 08 Mar 2004 10:04 - 18 of 31

Little woman,

If I was in your position, with club money to invest, I wouldn't
be in a rush.

This market is winding itself up for a biggish move IMHO.
You have already covered the upside with your buys.
Why not keep some powder dry to take advantage of any
opportunity that may arise.

The market seldom rockets up with nil profit taking or retracements,
but it does tank rather well as the fear feeds on itself.

Absolutely down to you of course, just adding my tuppence worth
for your consideration.

Melnibone.

little woman - 08 Mar 2004 10:23 - 19 of 31

Thanks Melnibone,

Our money is split into 2 portfolios, with different brokers. One I can do what I like with, (short term) and the other we agree as a club (long term).

The long term portfolio buys are based on div income - so once we buy we don't plan to sell them. However, as each share has gone into profit I put a stop loss at just below S3, and in the last year so far, only one stop loss has actually kicked in, the others have just kept going up!

I normally wait to see if the spreads improves, but this morning the L2 on JRVS made me think, I shouldn't wait, so I didn't. So far the share is about 15p up already. (We would have been happy for it to take a couple of months to go up that much!)


cilohaekib - 08 Mar 2004 10:24 - 20 of 31

Crocodile.....wow, just stumbled across this thread and must say fantastic information at the top. How often do you up-date?

Melnibone - 08 Mar 2004 10:32 - 21 of 31

As long as you are doing what you want to do, little woman.

I don't fancy the idea of all your lady members sitting around
sticking pins in little Melnibone effigies if the market
zooms to 5000. :-)

Melnibone.

little woman - 08 Mar 2004 10:33 - 22 of 31

cilohaekib - croc does a new thread everyday, midweek the evening before. With the extra info posted on the Monday thread on Sunday.

little woman - 08 Mar 2004 10:39 - 23 of 31

Melnibone - LOL, :-) actually we are 50% men & 50& female!

It's OK, for the last 18 months we have quite a conservative attitude(although we never used to) to risk for the long term portfolio and do use stop losses now. We even hold a few premium bonds! We don't like to hold much in cash because we earn either nothing, or next to nothing in interest.

little woman - 08 Mar 2004 11:25 - 24 of 31

Thats me done until this evening, I'm off out for the rest of the day now...

Happy trading!

zarif - 08 Mar 2004 13:20 - 25 of 31

afternoon all:
Early back today so will see what mischief can get upto with the dow etc.
Many thanks croc for your post and chart on the dow at the weekend.Please do keep dropping in and enlight us with your words of wisdom (or a telling off if we are due one).

rgds
zarif

stockbunny - 08 Mar 2004 14:08 - 26 of 31

Just thought I'd post this for interest taken from the LLOY site
Ex-Div date - 17 March
Record date - 19 March
Final div pay date - 5 May
Good luck one and all this afternoon!!

Melnibone - 08 Mar 2004 14:37 - 27 of 31

SKP still moving up well after it hit the 58/60p support
last week. It's pulled back over 5% since it bounced
off support.

Only another 20% to go. :-) (In my dreams!)

Melnibone.

Fundamentalist - 08 Mar 2004 15:06 - 28 of 31

Melnibone

SKP gained approval for foradil in Europe which has given a boost to the price today. I for one am hoping for a lot more than another 20% (though admittedly over a much longer timescale) though this is still fully dependent on the 3 announcements / results at the end of the month at which stage I shall re-assess my position - good luck and glad to see you called this bottom.

Melnibone - 08 Mar 2004 15:16 - 29 of 31

Hi Fundamentalist,

The way I see it is if you don't buy something when it
bounces off support on increasing volume then when would
you buy something?

I've kept two thirds of my holding and, the same as you,
will see how this pans out.

It appears that the company still has some deals to announce
that didn't come off last year. So that money will go straight to
the bottom line of this years balance sheet at some time
or another.
Market is supposed to be forward looking so we'll see what it does.

Melnibone.

Crocodile - 08 Mar 2004 17:11 - 30 of 31

Welcome cilohaekib, and thanks!

tanchos - 09 Mar 2004 12:02 - 31 of 31

Croc.Just found your thread too....FANTASTIC.Adding to my favorites.Keep up the good work-CHEERS
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