S&P Futures

House price inflation has accelerated over the past month although house prices at the top end of the property market are falling dramatically

UK futures turn negative

Imperial Tobacco said the group was on track to meet its own expectations for the financial year

Profile Therapeutics maker of inhaled drug delivery systems 6 month losses fell to 1.79 million pounds and first-half revenues rose 13 percent to 7.1m

Headlam Group floor coverings distributor reported a 9% growth in annual profit to 32.6 million pounds and said it looked forward to another year of growth.

Spirax-Sarco engineering maker of temperature and pressure controls, met forecasts with a 10 percent rise in 2003 profit to 44.6 million pounds and expected profit growth this year.

BAE rules out Alvis counterbid ..

 Primary Health (I), Alea Group (F), Headlam Group (F), Medical Solutions (F), Profile Therapeutics (F), ROK Property Solutions (F), Roxboro (F), Spirax (F)

Cintas Corporation, Dollar General Corp Tenet Healthcare Corp

13:30 NY Empire State Index 14:30 Capacity Utilization 14:30 Industrial Production

Hochtief AG, Thales, Lagardere Groupe

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

 Primary Health (I), Alea Group (F), Headlam Group (F), Medical Solutions (F), Profile Therapeutics (F), ROK Property Solutions (F), Roxboro (F), Spirax (F)

Cintas Corporation, Dollar General Corp Tenet Healthcare Corp

13:30 NY Empire State Index 14:30 Capacity Utilization 14:30 Industrial Production

Hochtief AG, Thales, Lagardere Groupe

Interior Services (I),Abbot Group (F), Benfield Group (F), BPP Holdings (F), Celltech (F), Computacenter (F), Delta (F), Gowrings (F), Highway Insurance (F), Interior Services (F), iTouch (F), John Menzies (F), Mersey Docks (F), PSD Group (F), Spectris (F), Spring Group (F), Staffware (F), Weir Group (F), Wyevale Garden Centres (F),Workspace Group (EGM. Feb CPI RICS Feb Housing Market Survey (00:30)

General Mills Inc, KB Home Lehman Brothers

13:30 Building Permits 13:30 Housing Starts 19:15 FOMC Meeting  

SGL Carbon, Mobilcom Oberthur, Card Systems AGF Assurances

Canary Wharf (F), Huveaux (F), JKX Oil & Gas (F), Johnston Press (F), Kingfisher (F), Parity Group (F), Pixology (F), Restaurant Group (F), RPS Group (F), Slough Estates (F), Tikit (F), Xaar (F),Amersham (EGM) London Scottish Bank (AGM),BoE`s minutes of March MPC 3/4 meeting (09:30)The Budget (12:30) Feb/Jan Labour Market Report (09:30)

Bear Stearns Companies Biomet Inc, Federal Express Worthington Industries, Jabil Circuit Inc Darden Restaurants

13:30 Core CPI 13:30 CPI

BASF, BMW Muenchener Rueckversicherungs Medion AG, Elmos Semiconductor

Vivendi Universal, Zodiac Autoroutes du Sud de la France GFI Informatique, J C Decaux

Ex Dividend: ANL Abbey National 16.67p 5.46%, BMK Benchmark Group 1.95p 1.85%, BI. Brambles Industries 4.16p 4.02%, CYD Countryside Properties 13p 3.21%, FBDU Flying Brands 5.22p 4.27%, FCCN French Connection Group 2.25p 0.79%, GLH Gallaher Group 20.15p 4.33%, HSBA HSBC Holdings 15.36p 4.57%, HVX Huveaux 0.88p 1.35%, ISO Isotron 3.55p, JDW Wetherspoon (J D) 1.33p 1.28%, HDW Headway 0.79p 2.47%, KGP Kingspan Group 3.62p 1.98%, LAC Lawrence 1.28p 1.29%, LLOY Lloyds TSB Group 23.50p 7.94%, LPT Linx Printing Technologie 3.10p 2.53%, PDG Pendragon 3.80p 2.39%, PO. P & O 9.00p 5.83%, PRU Prudential Corporation 10.70p 3.34%, PCH Pochin's 2.25p 2.95%, PRV Porvair 1.00p 2.54%, QTA Quantica 1.00p 1.69%, QYM Quayle Munro Holdings 6.00p 2.99%, RDW Redrow Group 3.00p 2.16%, TRS Tarsus Group 2.20p 2.20%, WHY White Young Green 2.20p 2.85%, WKT Walker (Thomas) 0.15p .80%

FW Thorpe (I),Manganese Bronze (I),Bisichi Mining (F), Cobham (F), Corus Group (F), Derwent Valley (F), Geest (F), House of Fraser (F), IP2IPO Group (F), Premier Farnell (F), Trafficmaster (F), William Morrison (F),Albion (AGM), Asset Man It (AGM), Ingenta (AGM),Feb BBA Net STG Lending Data (09:30) Feb Capital Issuance (09:30) Feb CML Mortgage Lending Data (09:30) Feb M4/M4 Lending (09:30) Feb PSNCR (09:30) Feb Retail Sales (09:30)

Adobe Systems, Nike Inc Solectron Corporation, Tektronix Inc Morgan Stanley

13:30 Initial Claims 15:00 Leading Indicators 17:00 Philadelphia Fed

Allianz AG, Altana AG Bayer AG, Celesio AG

Guyenne et Gascogne SA Pernod-Ricard SA, Generale de Sante

Gladstone (I), Aga Foodservice (F), Empire Interactive (F), Parkwood Holdings (F), Toad (F)

FTSE 100 March futures and options contracts expire

Carnival Corp, Paychex Inc

13:30 PPI, Core PPI

Galeries Lafayette SA, Euronext NV

Provisional Calendar For UK Equities  The Week Following  22nd - 26th March

Inventive Leisure (I), Kier Group (I), Ashtenne Holdings (F), Churchill China (F), Collins Stewart Tullett (F), CSS Stellar (F), EBookers (F), Enterprise (F), Forth Ports (F), Hiscox (F), Hit Entertainment (F), John Laing (F), London and Associated properties (F), Maclellan Group (F), Pennant International (F), TripleArc (F), Venture Production (F), MyTravel Group (AGM)

MJ Gleeson (I),Alltracel Pharmaceuticals (F), Autologic Holdings (F), Beazley Group (F), Bloomsbury Publishing (F), Corac Group (F), Development Securities (F), House of Fraser (F), Intelligent Environments (F), Surface Transforms (F), Unite Group (F), Universe Group (F)

Finsbury Food Group (I), LA Fitness (I),Alkane Energy (F), Atlantic Global (F), Autologic Holdings (F), Barratt Developments (F), Bell Group (F), Brixton (F), Gyrus Group (F), Huntleigh Technology (F), IQE (F), Music Choice (F), Paladin Resources (F), Signet Group (F), SVB Holdings (F), Taylor & Francis Group (F), Ted Baker (F), Tenon (F), Woolworths Group (F)

Ex Dividend:ABA Alba 2.25p 1.24%, SYN Synstar 0.50p 0.68%, HBR Holidaybreak 16.00p 3.83%, CPC Capcon Holdings 1.46p 4.52%, HCL Honeycombe Leisure 0.95p 4.57%, GAW Games Workshop Group 4.73p 2.35%, EPI Epic Group 0.80p 2.07%, HYNS Haynes Publishing Group 4.00p 2.44%, PRF Partridge Fine Arts 0.50p 0.71%, HRI Herald 0.30p 0.09%, ITN ITnet 2.93p 1.44%, BB. Bradford & Bingley 11.00p 5.36%, MAO Macro 4 2.40p 3.64%, ABp Associated British Ports 8.50p 3.19%, MLC Millennium & Copthorne 2.05p 2.18%, TBE Tribune Trust 7.00p 2.19% AOT Anglo & Overseas Trust 3.40p 2.37%, AV. Aviva 15.15p 4.46%, GFRD Galliford Try 0.55p 3.05%, INX Invox 7.00p 6.39%, CMS Communisis 3.23p 4.82%, GPG Guinness Peat Group 1.00p 1.37%, SDR Schroders 13.00p 2.64%, ICM ICM Computer Group 1.20p 1.21%, BOY Bodycote International 3.85p 4.55%

Alpha Airports Group (F), Cape (F), Capital and Regional (F), Codascisys (F), Entertainment Rights (F), Evolution Group (F), Hardy Underwriting (F), MTL Instruments (F), Next (F), Ottakar's (F), Oystertec (F), Rotork (F), S and U (F), Symphony Plastic Technologies (F), Thompson Clive (F), Thomson Intermedia (F), Crest Nicholson (AGM). Image Scan Holdings (AGM). QA (AGM),

Sinclair Pharma (I), BATM Advanced (F), Chelford (F), Harvey Nash Group (F)

Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead  -  Sunday 14th March

The retail sector will dominate the market with big announcements from Kingfisher, House of Fraser and Morrisons. Most of the big results are scheduled for Thursday as the reporting season starts to slow down.

MondayProfile Therapeutics inhalation therapy maker recently announced that it had received positive feedback for Promixin from regulatory authorities. As a result it expects full regulatory approval in these markets in the coming months. Headlam Group wholesaler of floor coverings should report rising profits to 33m

US Industrial production figures will be closely watched with the market looking for a rise of 0.4 percent in February, versus at 0.8 percent gain in January

Tuesday

Weir engineering group could join with Amey in winning contracts to participate in the reconstruction of Iraq when it issues full-year results. Despite this the Glasgow based group has struggled in the last year with profits forecast to be in the region of 55m, against 59m a year earlier. Benfield Group reinsurance company are expected to release maiden profits of 55m Celltech the UK's biggest biotechnology recently recieved a string of broker upgrades on increased confidence that there is not any major problems with its CDP 870 drug for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's disease. Sales should rise to 340m, and a modest improvement in profit to 53m is anticipated.Computacenter IT company profits should be in line with expectations with profits improving from 54m to 63m and sales 28% higher at 2.5b.Wyevale Garden Centres is expected to reveal a fifth year of rising profits, with earnings of around 24m

US: The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady and maintain its expectations for low inflation and gradual jobs growth

Wednesday

Kingfisher are expected to produce results at the top of market hopes after a recent positive update with profits rising to 610m from 521m in the previous year after the disposal of Kesa. This 5.1% increase in sales will come from a strong performance at B&Q and Castorama in France. There are fears that a slowdown in UK consumer spending may result in trimming the growth forecasts in the next 12 months. Rumours recently that US retail giant Home Depot is considering a takeover of Kingfisher. Johnston Press regional newspapers are expected to reveal a strong rise in annual profits following increased advertising revenue and wider margins.

Thursday

Carnival cruise company recently said booking levels were running 59% ahead of 2003 for the start of the year. This has been helped as Cunard's Queen Mary II liner entered service in mid-January, with five others liners due to take service this year. Profits should be boosted by higher booking prices fuelled by demand and cost cutting.Daily Mail issues a trading statement and as usual the state of the advertising market will have repercussions throughout the sector. Last year they achieved a 3% gain and a further improvement in like-for-like revenues is expected, mainly from recruitment and property advertising. Morrisons posts its final annual results after the 3bn takeover of rival Safeway was finally completed. The group is expected to produce good results in line with the sector with profits around 318m in 2003 compared with 275m a year ago. A sales increase of 9.3% is also expected but the main focus will be the strategy for integrating Safeway.Corus should show further recovery but full-year results are expected to show operating losses of between 50m and 150m, against 393m a year earlier. The improvement should come from further cost cutting and the recent increase in steel prices. Look for an update on further attempts to sell its aluminium operations after the collapse of the deal to Pechiney. House of Fraser The UK's third-largest department store group produce final results after uninspiring Xmas trading.Trafficmaster release interims after a recent announcement that customers of MINIs and BMW 3 series cars will now be able to buy its navigation system, Smartnav, as an approved accessory. Sales are expected to be 30m with losses falling to 9.5m from 1m last year.The Budget could be dominated by any property tax changes which could benefit retailers such as Marks & Spencers and house builders. The introduction of Real Estate Investment Trusts means that certain groups will not pay tax on income and capital gains on their property provided they pass on a high percentage of profits to investors. Property shares could turn themselves into investment trusts and retailers / pub-owning companies should also gain on the news.

Friday

AGA Foodservice Group said it expected 2003 results to be in line with those seen a year earlier but added it sees promising prospects in 2004. It is expected to report profits similar to last year's 27m figureExpect some volatility as FTSE 100 March futures and options contracts expire

Thoughts

US: Despite a strong recovery on Friday all the major markets were well down on the week. The S&P fell 3.14 percent, the Dow Jones dropped 3.35 percent, and the Nasdaq down 3.07 percent.The FTSE fell less than 2% on the week, again helping to close the divergence which has opened between the US & UK markets over the last 12 months. Even so the FTSE dropped to 4,375 at one point on Friday morning which was its lowest intraday level since February 12th. On Thursday the deadly explosions in Madrid combined with doubts on the strength of the US recovery led to an Intraday fall of 120 points, its largest drop in almost a year. Looking through various US analysts views on the week ahead I am struck by the differences in opinion. A typical example being 'U.S. stocks are seen trading higher next week following a strong performance Friday and expectations that economic data will signal continuing manufacturing growth and low interest rates' And  'US stock markets are expected to remain under pressure following recent doubts on the worldwide economic recovery and after Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the devastating terrorist attack in Madrid'. At least 50% of them will be correct.

Looking at the charts helps to explain some of the uncertainty. The 5 year charts shows the remarkable similarity between the DJ & FTSE with both markets at the corner of a wedge formed by the 5 year downtrend meeting the 1 year uptrend. However the DOW may have broken slightly below the support during the last week but that could just be down to my accuracy (or lack of) in drawing lines.

The 10 day Intraday chart I have found to be very useful in predicting short term market moves also gives little guidance.  However I will go FTSE short on any fall below 4450 looking for a 50 point gain. The UK futures however are positive at the moment following the gains in the US on Friday so I will probably have to wait for the fog to clear a little!

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead! 

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

Sunday Newspapers

Day trades soar and shares dive, Private investors were again piling into shares as the Footsie boomed. But now the question is being asked - is the party over already? The number of shares traded by private investors in January rocketed by 57% on last year, while last month the volume was 77% up on February last year. Click here for the full story

Shell: The FSA has launched an urgent investigation into whether Shell broke stock market rules by not telling investors earlier that it had overstated its oil reserves by a fifth. The oil giant faces huge fines if it is found guilty of market abuse.AstraZeneca's major shareholders are pressing for more boardroom changes.

THE Budget: 1% VAT increase predicted by experts as a 50/50 chance. It is thought Gordon Brown will be looking at ways to raise extra revenue, and having ruled out income tax rises he is expected to turn his attention to VAT or stamp duty. Some say that it is not thought that he will increase National Insurance until after the next election as it was a manifesto commitment. Yet if he did bring the National Insurance threshold in line with the earnings level for higher rate tax it would gain 459 a year in tax for anyone who earned more than 35,000. The Chancellor is also expected to turn his attention to stamp duty which would enable him to raise extra revenue, while claiming he was acting to cool the housing market down.

SUNDAY TIMES Ireland: Cubic calls for three seats on Man United board Mayflower Corporation Secret approach to ailing British bus maker, Lapthorne approached over top job at BAE General Dynamics tanks outgun BAE to buy Alvis Anglo Irishs FitzPatrick to join Aer Lingus board Hornby starts to pick up speed with expansion Cookson to slim down by selling precious-metals division Indigo Vision shares surge for web firm Canary Wharf Reichmann: is he a hero or a villain? Canary Wharf bid pledge

Shell Transport

Shot in the arm for science Amersham Agenda: William Lewis: Give Bses stock exchange bid a fair hearing London Stock Exchange Enterprise boldly goes into Footsie Enterprise Inns Directors' Deals: Music bosses find sanctuary in sell-off Sanctuary Group Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Spring? Spring Group Special Report: King of the turf raises stakes Manchester United Why Shell has clammed up  

SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Cox in talks to buy Highway Insurance New chairman for BAE

BAE Systems Hollick tunes into TV Tanks on BAE's lawn

Canary Wharf, Morgan Stanley has revealed it was in "detailed discussions" about changing the structure of its 1.6billion bid and possibly raising it, to fend off Brascan's rival offer.

Baker Greggs Amid fears that many companies will fail to meet earnings expectations, investors have turned to more defensive sectors such as food. Baker Greggs has just achieved a 12th year of growth and shares look good value at 3430p. The advertising industry is seen as an attractive long-term investment as it often grows faster than the world economy. While WPP shares have fallen recently - to 576 1/2p -- profits should increase by 47 million this year. Buy. Xaar, Upbeat results are expected from printing technology specialist Xaar on Wednesday. The group already boasts Toshiba as a major customer and could unveil another significant client at the same time as the results. Shares are a buy at 56 1/2p. Radstone Technology, Defence experts forecast more takeovers after General Dynamics' 309 million offer for tank maker Alvis. Targets could include electronics group Radstone Technology, which should also benefit from more defence spending. Buy at 368 1/2p.

OBSERVER News in brief WPP FSA probes scandal of 'missing' Shell reserves Amec can show Iraq the West meant it

Man Utd to bring critics on board Bad habits at the Abbey

MAIL ON SUNDAY Now FSA probes scandal at Shell Symbian software boss may quit, Levin 'disappointed' at Psion sale Standard Life denies delay tactic Littlewoods profits leap to 210m Retail boost for Barclay brothers

Psion CEO uses his company personal holding to swing Symbian vote. Pressure on AstraZeneca board

TV fat cats 'safe' over 27m payoffs

Labour to admit Equitable failures, Showdown may lead to compensation BAE pulls back from tanks bid, Alvis to fall into US hands 445m offer for retailer DFS doomed, Investors demand 450p-a-share New twist in the Telegraph saga, Black to appeal against sale ban Day trades soar and shares dive, Have the amateurs got it wrong? 100m racetrack plan is under threat, Planestation may go on sale Moss Bros braced for share raid, Clothes group in takeover speculation

Moss Bros is bracing itself for a major sharebuying raid by fashion entrepreneur Kevin Stanford. It comes amid growing takeover speculation and a sudden souring of relations between the company and its biggest shareholder, Shami Ahmed

INDEPENDENT  Bates bounces back and eyes up Leeds Watts may lose his Shell pension

The Week Ahead: What now for Morrisons and its hard-won prize? Daily Mail & General Trust Independent on Sunday

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Rolls-Royce deal safeguards 90 jobs at revitalised MB Aerospace Patience is a virtue as Cairn's oil strike rewards investors ITV non-executive director defies calls to quit amid payoff furore

Weir Group, UK to step up stake in rebuilding Iraq Candover to sell 128m stake in Inveresk Research John Wood Group, UK to step up stake in rebuilding Iraq

SUNDAY EXPRESS  Marks & Spencer is rated a buy at 283p as broker JP Morgan remains upbeat on the retailer's long-term prospects for its home division and near-term prospects for the troubled clothing business. Bovis Homes is well positioned for solid growth, according to brokerage Arbuthnot. Results last week were ahead of expectations and the company is forecasting annual volume growth of 10% this year. Buy at 530p

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Associated British Foods (ABF) a fundamentally well-run business. Isoft (IOT) group did better than expected in the key NHS IT market. Oxford Biomedica (OXB) a weak player with a limited licensing pipeline and a poor record. Connaught (CNT) a strong order book and its core business is getting help from new legislation.*Landround (LDR) recent drift in the share price is a good chance for new investors to take a look at this travel promotions company. Lincat (LCT) strong product range is capturing market share, underpinning a solid dividend yield.

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy iTrain (IRN) at 10.75p - Ocean Power Technologies (OPT) at 94.5p - Cyc Holdings (CYC) at 1.85p - Burren Energy (BUR) at 205p - Pursuit Dynamics (PDX) (long-term) at 115.5p.

Updates: Take profits at UK Coal (UKC). Hold K3 Business Technology (KBT). Sell GB Group (GBG).

Water's Tide Rises on Dividend Prospects: Dee Valley (DVW) - Pennon (PNN) - Bristol (BWG) - Kelda (KEL) - Northumbrian (NWG) - AWG (AWG) - Severn Trent (SVT).

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com