Thought I would start a thread just on FTSE350 shares (includes FSTE100).

I don't think we need to have individual threads on each one, as there are times when theses are good buys to tuck away for the future, and times when to leave alone! Please also remember to include the EPIC (saves me looking it up, when I DMOR on your suggestions!)

I hope everyone will think it useful to post info, charts etc about these type of shares, to help more with timing - like when to buy as well as when to sell (or not).

The traders thread has been useful for info for that day but I hope this thread will develop and change in line with the market.

OK - I'll make a start - SHELL (SHEL)

I've been wanting to buy some shares for sometime for the long term/div but considered it too expensive. All this bad news has been a godsend, and I finally bought yesterday at just under 360. On this price the div return is about 4.5% and they go ex div next week - 31 March!

Personally Shell make so much money out of me, because I always use their garages to fill up (I want the airmiles!) that the state of their Reserves are totally meanless to me!

So has no one got any comments about Shell - or about my comments about why I bought some?

Or any other FSTE350 shares?

I'm reconsidering LLOYDS (LLOY) I sold my last lot at the end of January 04, at around 4.65, realising they were not going to stay at that level for long. The went ex div last week, and on Friday closed at 4.09. I'm wondering how far they will go before they get support?

hi littlewoman, i bought lloyds at 433 and am now holding, i'm hoping they will only breach 400 for a very short time before beginning to ascend again. I am considering shell but only if they fall further, the most pessimistic view i've encountered is 300, so i will only buy if they fall to 320/330 before the dividend. I'm looking to buy bradford and bingley as close to 300 as possible before wednesday as i feel the lowest they will fall is 290. I am watching legal and general and royal sun very closely because i can smell a large profit if i time it right!

Little Woman - more bad news on Shell over the weekend I am afraid, have learned in my time that bad news and profit warnings are seldom isolated cases, they tend to come in droves.

Do you remember the old shell adverts? i.e "You can be sure of Shell"

Am afraid the new traders version of that is "You can be short on Shell"

No disrespect intended and of course dyor

LW - good thread.

As for Shell, another slating has come in the sunday press with regards to the second restatement of reserves and also the lawsuits that are now coming from the USA, the key focus in the press today was whther anyone can trust what Shell say anymore. With oil prices where they are current trading should be quite strong. That said, any press coverage at the moment is going to be negative and whilst I believe they are a good long term investment, I think they may be a better investment in a few months time.

Like you, I was in Lloyds but sold at 470p earlier this year. Having read their results I am not convinced with the business plan and where they are going to generate growth from and whther the business can sustain the dividend. I believe there are better shares in the sector currently.

I personally prefer HBOS, who over the last year grew their market share in every sector, especially business and personal banking on the high street. They are still quite exposed to the housing market (21% of UK mortgages), though this market is still holding up and was buoyed by the Barker report last week. On a forward Pe of just 9 for a company which has a clear growth strategy this looks a good LTBH to me.

LW - I'm surprised you didn't mention Persimmon when you started this thread as i think i'm right in saying its a share you hold. The housebuilders have had a great run recently and the Barker report could sustain this. As a regional director of one of Persimmons rumoured takeover targets, I am well aware of how strong a company they are and also their predatory nature. There is expectation within the industry of further consolidation, with several of the bigger companies pushing to be the first into the FTSE100 with Persimmon leading the way. They have been very successful in integrating companies after takeover and maximising the synnergies and are due another one based on their track record. The biggest problems they currently face are planning restrictions, any takeover is likely to be hostile and the reputation for quality and customer service (they have been a recent target for Watchdog on a regular basis)and legislation in this area is being looked at that will add to housebuilders costs. In the short term there may be more upside in buying shares in the 3/4 companies who are the most likelier takeover targets but long term, Persimmon appear as good a bet as any within the sector. The sector itself appears to becoming more popular again with the city with continual higher re-ratings possible with a sector average PE of still below 7.

The other share I like in this sector currently is McArthy and Stone - who are a niche player targetting the retirement market with little competion except on a localised basis. They make greater returns than the volume builders and tend to have more success in obtaining planning consents. They have a strong land bank and general balance sheet. They have also been rumoured to be a Persimmon target as well as the founder trying to buy them out himself for his two sons to run and are trading on a forward PE of 7, with more scope for organic growth than the volume builders have.

Nice thread LW

One to watch is SCTN. There's support at 4.00 and I think they have looked particularly strong of late. They seem strong even on down days. I hold no stock but regularly trade them (s/b), omly ever going long.

wow - excellent comments

no1dad, you are busy - I've look a Bradford & Bingley last year, and could understand why the weren't doing anything. But since then lacked the time to take a look at them again. It'll be useful if you could post how they are doing from time to time.

Paulismyname & Fudamentalist - yes I know the news about SHEL has been dire, (although not as fundamentally bad as the press make out)and expected it to have been hammered far more than it has. I've been watching it since the first lot of news when it had it's first big drop and took the market with it. But since then, despite more & more bad news it hasn't really falling much. Shell should do well long term and I got in just in case I didn't get another chance. If it drops a lot further I will want to buy some more, but it will need to be a big drop. With our dependance on oil, in time they will recover. Unfortunetely I don't have the facility to short this share in the meantime.

Fundamentalist - yes I like HBOS, but last year LLOY gave me a much better return because it was more volotile! Timing is all with HBOS, and always seem to be at the top of its range when I look at it!

Ah Persimmon, my star! Last year I made so much money on this share as it went up and down and up and down! When it started dropping last October I thought yes, this is my chance. Finally in December (just before the results were due out) I though I better get some, or I'll miss the boat - and it has gone up leaps and bounds! It seems to go up 20+ for 2 or 3 days, down one day, up 2 or 3 days then down one day. But the ups are way above the downs! I got mine at about 4.80 and they are currently nearly 6.90! There seems to be no stopping them. McArthy and Stone, I need to know more.

Seymour Clearly - Scottish & Newcastle, I got some last sept @ 3.65 and sold them in Feb @ 4.05 when they hit the stop loss I set a week earlier! Trouble is they then carried back up! I must admit I would like to get back in but would like the price to drop back to 4.00 first (I know wishful thinking!)

I like to purchase FTSE350 shares, when they are heading downwards, rather than upwards. (I tend to feel I've missed the boat if they are heading upwards!)But I also make sure that they are fundamentally solid companies! (No good if they are in real trouble!)

Using this method over the years, I would say I actually manage to get them at the companies low more than 50% of the time.

The only mistake I have made recently was Glaxosmithkline, which I got out early feb. If they drop to 10.00 I will take another look, but until then I'll sit it out!

Good idea lw

I recently switched from Redrow (taking a 36% profit over 10 months) into Mccarthy & Stone. Support all Fundamentalist's points and add one further consideration. Since MCTY aims at retirement market, where presumably mortgages are not an issue and people are perhaps using cash from house sales or lifetime savings, shouldn't they be far less impacted by the eventual interest rate rises? Would be interested to know whether more experienced investors see a flaw in this idea.

As for Shell, I got out at 3.90 within 20 minutes or so of the resignation announcement and breathed a huge sigh of relief! Doubt I'll reenter. With Lloyds I'm happy enough with the dividend to hold through negative patches. One of my favourite "boring" shares is Tesco, who seem to pick their global strategy very carefully and balance it with UK operations successfully.

Good luck to all investors in these shares.

Madison

With the FTSE 350 companies we tend to have a similar approach I think, looking for undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals!!! Likewise, we are both waiting for 1000p for GSK.

As for MCTY they build new homes solely in retirement blocks/villages etc.


quick overview on fundamentals:

Market Cap 638m at current share price of 607.5p

Last full yr results:
turnover 255m (+36%), pre tax profit 116m (+54%) (45% margin), eps 76.5p, pe ratio 8, divi 13.7p (2.3% yield)

they currently have a land bank worth approx 4 years and minimal competition. the founder tried to take the company private last year at about 450p per share and failed but there is a view he is still interested (the approach led to him resigning).

March trading update (half year announced 22nd April) - first half sales down on prior yr but a stronger second half exepcted. Sales prices up 15% (net cash of 20m+)

MDY after todays great news.A great investment for the future.

LONDON (AFX) - Deutsche Bank AG has come to the support of Shell and accused the US Securities & Exchange Commission of using 'outdated' standards to assess oil and gas company reserves, according to the Guardian.

It reports the investment bank as saying the entire energy sector could find it harder to raise cash in future because of over-conservative policies being applied by the US regulators.

Yesterday Shell was forced to fend off heavy criticism from fund managers at a meeting in London organised by the Association of British Insurers.

It makes you wonder about the rest of the sectors - are we going to start hearing things about other companies. (Wasn't ENRON in this sector?)

Which reminds me - Happy1 - MDY is not a FTSE350 company!

One of the more consistant performer I have over the last 2 years,
including the 'dip' last year when everything fell is Rank Group (RNK)
Even at the worse times, yes it fell, but nowhere like the way some
others did.

It pays a good divi. for a leisure sector company and has a broad spread
of interest areas - casinos, cafes, bingo halls, film processing - these
I can think of off the top of my head. Hard rock cafes have been a headache
for the firm but there's good money going by way of the bingo halls/casinos!

With restrictions on gambling being relaxed it should continue to do well,
OK the last set of figs. showed although the divi. went up but the earnings
per share didn't, but that has not been the case over the rest of the time
I have held the shares, and I am hoping it is simply a temporary blip.

I like RNK & I'm staying in with this one for the forseeable!

A similar share to RNK that I trade is WTB.

It seems to find strong support at 700p as you can see from above.
Spreads can be wide in the morning when low volume gives it some
volatility that is not for the faint hearted, but they settle down
to 0.5p quite often.

Please note that I said 'Trade', not invest. I think little woman
wants invest type shares on this thread. So if you FA experts would
like to run your investing metrics past WTB perhaps you would like
to post your conclusions as to it's promise as an investment.

If you like it, then it's resting on support ripe for the plucking.
If you don't like it, then maybe it's about to change to 700p
resistance and is ripe for shorting. :-))

Over to you.

Melnibone.

Good thread. Shel may not yet have all bad news out of the way, but fabulous cash generation and healthy yield have encouraged me to lock some away at just over 350p. LLoy should be attractive now to possible overseas bidder and popularity of banks is so low that MMC likely to welcome it. I have bought at 408p.IMHO it has more cautious approach than HBOS or HSBC and therefore lower credit risk profile - should be able to maintain dividend. Downside is they may wish to buy something else and history is littered with banks overpaying for acquisitions(apart perhaps from RBS for Nat West). How about LMSO - had them for years and mix of property + techy investment portfolio always makes for an interesting read at results time. Property side underpins decent yield and they did at least bank some of their paper profits in the dot com boom. Another one for the kids/grandchildren but dyor!

Kelda must have an attraction if only for its yield. I am getting 7% plus at my purchase costs and even at todays price it must be yielding about 6%.
I know its regulated to hell but it is coping very well with that and as a bonus there is always the possibility of sector consolidation or outside interest, and of course at this time a captivated and growing customer base. Being a residant of Yorkshire in my view Kelda are producing the results.

Lots of interesting info being posted. As Bradford & Bingley (BB.) has just gone ex div. and is todays biggest faller I thought I would take a look at the 2 year chart and compare it to the Banking Sector over the same period. Interesting result.

Great thread little woman!

My 3 favourite FTSE 350 picks:

Legal & General (LGEN)- at these levels likely to deliver a solid double digit annual return (ex div on 31st Mar 3.3p). L & G got its rights issue away well ahead of other life companies, and subsequently its balance sheet is strong for recovering markets. Likely to benefit from new baby bond investment products and increased private pension savings. A solid ISA holding & dividend re-investment scheme available.

Galen Holdings (GAL) - fast growing pharmaceutical, 7 years of double digit earnings growth, access to huge American female pharma market, bordering on FTSE 100 membership. Given drug pipeline, expect several years of 20% earnings growth to come.

St. Modwen Properties (SMP) - the 10 year chart if there is one, tells it all. First class property company, growing net asset value, earnings and dividends year after year. Another 20%-er if you buy, hold, & re-invest the dividends.

I also like RBS. Quality. Sometimes a volatile one for trading, but ultimately another stock you can buy & not lose sleep over.

All IMHO great companies to own. I have owned them for in the region of 7 years and my confidence remains in them for the next 7 years! My returns have beaten the FTSE 350 year on year, owing to the exceptional earnings growth of the above companies.

TSQ

I also like SMP but sadly do not hold any as the price climb
this & last year has frighten me off a bit - but you know what
jumpy creatures rabbits are! - and now I wish I had got in
when I first really noticed the company, would have been about
a year ago I suppose. Never mind..

Galen unfortunately suffered as a result of the techmark bubble around 98-99. This also coincided with its large merger with Warner Chilcott of the U.S.

It's now back on a steady uptrend, and should be trading above 10

Stockbunny

I understand your concern on SMP. It does trade well above its NAV, but it should continue to deliver double digit earnings and dividend growth for the foreseeable future.

It now has a sizeable and realisable stake which it can sell in Chepstow plc, formerly its Northern Racing subsidiary.

If you can't buy & hold then perhaps it's not for you, but if you can hold for say 1-2 years, I dont think it will disappoint.

SHELL:

Legal & General - LGEN

Emg (The Man Group) has had a good day Little Woman on results...an old favourite of mine from around ?13.60 which I traded up in mostly successful longs. Out at present but may look to reenter at some point when the dust settles

If you are still interested in oil you could do worse than take a look at PLR. Just posted profits up 28%. The 5 year graph says it all. They do well picking up the scraps the big boys leave behind. Worth taking a look on the dip.

a lot of talk about shell on this thread . anybody got any views on shell doing business with libya now we are all "friends" again? got to be a lot of unused , undiscovered oil there.

I must admit I was wondering how long SHEL have been in talks and what would they have done if were weren't all "friends" again? Perhaps Libya has the missing reserves.

Libya is the 11th largest oil producer country in the world. Its natural gas reserves are far more vast.

Is Shell big in natural gas?

I thought oil producers burnt off gas?

Taken off Shells web site: We produce some 19% of Britains oil and 23% of its gas, enough to supply over one third of UK domestic gas customers.

Thought this might be useful

Market Pulse: FTSE  Midprice Change      25/03/04      

name     chg       name     chg       name     chg      name     chg          name     chg----       -----        ----      -----        ----        -----        ----      ----          ----      -----AAL    29.50        BOOT   16.25     GLH    -2.50       MKS     4.50        SDR    20.75ABF     2.50         BP.     0.00          GSK     5.00       MRW     0.75        SFW  -308.00AHM     3.75      BSY     8.50         GUS     1.75       NGT    -0.50         SGE     6.88AL.     9.25          BT.A    1.00         HAS     3.88       NRK    19.25        SHEL    2.38ALLD    4.25       CBRY   -0.75      HBOS   22.00     NXT    38.50        SHP    -2.75ANL     6.75        CCL    54.00       HG.     7.75         OML     1.88         SMIN    2.00AUN     9.25        CNA     1.00      HNS     8.38        OOM     5.00         SN.   -10.25AV.    11.50        CPG     4.38        HSBA   14.00     PFG    -3.50           SPW     6.88AVZ    15.63       CPI     5.63         ICI     8.50           PRU     9.75          SSE     0.00AZN   -16.00      CW.     7.75        IHG    11.25         PSON   15.50       STAN    6.50BA.     7.88          DGE     2.50       III    16.00            RB.     9.00           SVT    -3.50BAA     8.50        DMGT    8.50     IMT    -9.50         RBS    14.00        TOMK    3.38BARC    4.13      DXNS    3.50      JMAT   19.75       REL     4.50         TSCO    8.00BATS   -4.50      EMA    27.50      KEL     0.88         REX     1.88         ULVR    7.50BB.     1.50          EMG    59.50     KGF     6.13         RIO    17.50         UU.     0.25BG.    -2.75         EXL     6.00        LAND   34.50     RTO     1.25         VOD     4.50BLND   22.75     FP.     4.00          LGEN    2.38       RTR    15.88        WOS     2.25BLT     7.75        FRCL    2.75       LII     6.50           SAB    11.25        WPP    22.00BNZL   -3.38     ???  ???????     LLOY    6.75       SBRY   -0.25        WTB    13.75BOC    22.25     GKN     4.63        MAB     3.63       SCTN    2.88        XTA    27.25                                                             

All quiet again - no-one investing in FTSE350 shares? Or people only trading?

SHEL goes ex dividend tommorrow, (9.65p) so it'll be interesting to see how far it falls.

ICAP(IAP) Is one I have just gone in on,profits are good and,the divi is one of the best.

Found conflicting info about div. Will have to check out more from elsewhere - IAP is not one I'd noticed before you mentioned it roma

roma - am I correct in thinking the current div return on IAP is about 10%?

Little woman that is about right

little woman, i've been looking at this share, so many "analysts" reckon this will be a ftse 100 company soon, it's recently had a 5 for 1 share issue so it's more accessible, but I would like to enter at about 280

IAP goes ex div in July, and the final results should be out at the end of May. The 5 for 1 issue, when was that? The reason I ask is - am I working out the a dividend based on the shares before or after the increase?

Bush, do you think it will get that low? If it drops that low i'll buy some more. Last few weeks, 3.16/3.21/3.17/3.09/3.25/3.12/andlast week 3.05p

from memory it was about a month ago, sorry i'm being vague, but it was a 15 share so I was saving up for it! Then it suddenly went to about 320, now I'm just getting greedy. Hope this helps with whatever calculations you are doing!

Little woman, now you have me thinking,on the 24/01/2004 it was 16.15p and on the 13/02/2004 it was 3.16p so must have been some time in-between. Sorry not giving it any attention at that stage. so can't be certain of the date.

Hi Little woman,

Taking the divi on Legal & General tomorrow, and hoping price holds reasonably well. I like the defensive qualities of UK financials, as risk balancers to more adventurous growth stocks. Market looks like going sideways for a while, so yields plays are my current favourites. Growth stocks may take a breather.

I'm also using Investment Trusts to bank profits in, and use them as portfolio stabilisers to protect/preserve capital & overall return. I got my fingers burnt in 98-99 and vowed never again to ignore capital protection as part of my portfolio management!

I like FCIT (F&C IT), (BNKR) Bankers Investment trust, Perpetual Income Growth,
F & C Income growth (FIG). All very stable price wise & offering growing dividend yields in the 2-4% range. A better home than current money market/cash returns, for money not invested in equities.

On a 12 month view, I still really like LGEN & LLOY in financials, Galen(GAL) (Pharma), St. Modwen Properties(SMP) & Marks & Spencer (MKS) retail. A UK based bias for the year ahead might offer lower volatility in overall returns.

All IMHO.

TSQ.

I noted from an earlier post, comment about stocks on verge of FTSE 100 membership.

It would be interesting to look at say, the first 50 of the FTSE 250 to see which may be the most likely new entrants given their growth records.

I'm not an expert on the ins & outs of the index and the trigger points for entry ie. market caps etc., but a list might be good.

Anybody know best source of info?

TSQ

LSE provides a download of all UK listed companies including market cap.

Don't know how frequently they update the values.

from the LSE home page click 'Companies' then scroll down to the excel spreadsheets.

'Have some info on index changes somewhere and if it falls to hand will let you know.

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/invrel/default.asp

Entry to 100 = 90th or above in market cap.
Exit 100 = 111th or below

Entry to 250 = 325 or above
Exit 250 = 376 or below

Be fun to pull a forecast together (depending on your idea of fun).
When is the next shuffle ?

38

http://www.ftse.com/indices_marketdata/ground_rules/uk-series-ground-rules.pdf

Many thanks 38!

going to take a look.

TSQ.

Hi TSQ,

I did the numbers of the FTSE 100 changes and the process is fairly straight forward. Sort the LSE list by cap and select the largest 150. Find the highest listed 250 and lowest 100 stock. Check the cap of the company, say, 10 higher than the highest 250 and ten lower than the lowest 100. Check the list by searching for all companies within these parameters on Company refs. (LSE list is two months old, Refs is weekly). Call that the opportunity set.

Sort by cap. All the 250 stocks at 90th or higher are promotion candidates and 100 stocks at 111 or below are demotion candidates.

At the last review Enterprise Inns went into the FTSE100 at 91, F&Col left at 114. (Why did Enterprise go in at 91 ? - no idea). New inclusions to the 250 went in at 155,166,264,283,322 and 324.

So predicting the 250 is more difficult just because of the number of different lines of stock that need to be entered into the system to make it work with any degree of certainty.

The next committe meeting takes place on Wednesday 9th of June.

I'm sure these forecasts are in a mag / paper some where.

Yours,

With insomnia,

38

LW...Although Shell had probs estimating future reserves, 330 was an important low last year, climbing to 420 with very bullish divergence..Though the price has been edging lower RSI has made higher lows so descent could be slowing!!
Full year net profit was up on the back of higher prices @ $11.7 billion against $9.28 billion previously...
Current investment however, will not pay off until 2006/07.. Perhaps the worst is now over!?!

I hope you are right webmeister. Only time will tell

Is PSN bouncing back up?

I have a bit of cash that needs to go into a least one, possibly up to five highish yielding FTSE350 companies in about 2 weeks. Like most things it's a question of timing.

So I'm looking for suggestions (& a discussion why) to produce a good list of about 15 companies to choose from, so that between now & then it is just a matter of eliminating the ones, that are currently what I call "too expensive"!

I currently have: PSN, SCTN & ULVR that I am watching (held, made good profits & received dividends this year, but dropped below stop loss price so sold)

Not a high yield play, but in valuation terms Galen Holdings (GAL), has lost a bit of ground recently making it a STRONG BUY in my book. Whilst scares persist over HRT drugs, Galen's pipeline encompasses a much wider field, including oral contraceptives, acne treatments, analgesics, antibiotics and novel drug delivery systems. The HRT scares continue to be the reason Galen trades at a discount to the sector.

Excellent management, increased US sales force and earnings forecast to rise significantly over next 2 years to 66pence and 89pence. Pricing Galen on a p/e of 18( a slight discount to the sector average), gives me price targets of 1200pence for 04, and 1600pence for 05.

Present price ~820pence, IMHO STRONG BUY.

TSQ.

Hi LW:

7 prospects filtered out of the 350 based on a good covered divi, positive EPS growth rates and postive trend ROCE - but with no regard to current news, sentiment or technicals: BATS / GLH / DXNS / JLT / MTN / DCG / BWNG

Not in a position to discuss them at the mo'...

Regards