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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 5th April (SBRY)     

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 13:25

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1 Day  

  2 Day  

5 Day  

UK News

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Gold/Bond

Pivots

Markets 

Futures

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Day 2 Day 5 Day US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei +142 Hang Seng +55  Asia News

  DAX    CAC     Euro News

KLM carried 8% more traffic last month on increasing signs that International long haul traffic is increasing.

Sainsbury shares may rise on buyout rumours.

Marks & Spencer may say that growth has stalled when it reports Q4 sales later this month, Chief Executive Roger Holmes may have concluded that the recovery instigated by Chairman Luc Vandevelde has finished and further growth requires "radical change". Last week they announced they would shed about a fifth of its head office and financial services' workforce.

Brascan has extended its offer for British property firm Canary Wharf by six days until April 8

Carillion (CLLN) has signed a five year agreement with railway operator Network Rail for the renewal of tracks, switches and crossings. The contract, which starts this month, is valued at around 50 million pounds in the first year.

Balfour Beatty (BBY) has been awarded a number of five-year track, switches and crossings renewals contracts likely to be worth more than 500 million pounds with 113 million pounds in the first year.

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT)

 Burren Energy (F), Chaucer Holdings (F),

Havelock Europa (F), Zi Medical (F)

British Airways (Traffic Update)

08:30 Feb Industrial Production,Manufacturing Output

15:00 ISM Services Mar - 61.0

Koenig & Bauer (F), KLM (Traffic Update)

 Data Download

Calendar

US Zone

HTML Edit

Currency Calc

Broker Upgrades

Director Dealings

David@SnappyTrader.com    www .SnappyTrader.com  Pre Market Futures FTSE +5 DAX +10 DOW +12 S&P +0.6 Nas Unch

Tips & Recommendations

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 13:25 - 2 of 56

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United Kingdom - Calendar  5th - 9th April

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United States

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Europe & World

 Burren Energy (F), Chaucer Holdings (F),

Havelock Europa (F), Zi Medical (F)

British Airways (Traffic Update)

08:30 Feb Industrial Production,Manufacturing Output

15:00 ISM Services Mar - 61.0

Koenig & Bauer (F)

Bellway (I), Fibernet (I), Premier Direct (I), Corin Group (F), DataCash (F), Highbury House (F), Kiln (F), Regal Petroleum (F),

Wigmore Group (F), New Look Group (Trading Announcement)

ALCOA Q1

FR Altran Technologies (F) FR GPSP Grandvision (Q1)

James Beattie (F), Brammer (F), Kiln (F)

Huveaux (AGM), Rio Tinto (AGM)

EasyJet (Traffic Update)

Abbott Laboratories Q1

13:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar - 0.6% - 13:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar - 0.4% 20:00 Consumer Credit Feb - $14.3B

Carrefour SA Q1 Sodexho Alliance SA H1

Ex Dividend: Davis Service Group 10.60p (375.00), Provident Financial 19.90p (734.50), Pittards 0.50p (48.00), WH Ireland Group 0.75p (78.50), Photo-Scan 3.90p (118.50), Atlantic Global 0.70p (70.00), Pearson 14.8p

09:00 BRC March shop price index

 

Bank of England's rates decision

General Electric Q1, Supervalu Q4 M&T Bank Q1, SunTrust Banks Q1

13:30 Core PPI Mar DATE 0.1% 13:30 Initial Claims 342K - 13:30 PPI Mar0.1% 15:00 Wholesale Inventories Feb 0.1%

Clarins SA Clarins Q1 L'Oreal Q1, Zodiac SA H1 Bonduelle Group H1, Groupe Steria SCA(F)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Marshall & Ilsley Q1  

 

Provisional Calendar For UK Equities  The Week Following  12th - 16th April

JJB Sports (F), St Ives (F)

Associated British Foods (I), St Ives (I), Henry Boot (F), JJB Sports (F)

 Ex Dividends Alphameric 1.95p (83.00), BG 1.86p (327.00), Alliance & Leicester 29.60p (878.50), BBA Group 7.60p (255.00), Hammerson 11.17p (685.00), Friends Provident 4.90p (147.50), Rathbone Brothers 16.00p (745.00), SHL Group 2.50p (108.00), Bailey (Ben) Construction 8.00p (462.50), Britannic 10.00p (354.00), Broadcastle 1.90p (77.00), Fisher (James) & Sons 4.30p (312.50), SIG 8.30p (370.00), Concurrent Technology 0.25p (20.50), Edinburgh US Tracker 2.85p (471.00), Charles Taylor 4.93p (287.50), Clarke (T) 19.00p (551.00), Fairplace Consulting 2.10p (86.50), Graphite Enterprise 4.30p (238.50), Forth Ports 24.20p (1209.00), HIT Entertainment 0.64p (314.50), Pennant International 0.40p (28.00), Alliance Trust 35.50p (2586.00), Unite Group 1.67p (193.00), BHP Billiton 8.50p (507.50), CA Coutts Holdings 3.65p (113.50), Alpha Airports Group 2.80p (4.87)

DFS Furniture (I), Associated British Ports (AGM), Sage (Trading Announcement)

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 13:26 - 3 of 56

Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead  -  Sunday 4th April

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Last week all major index's finished the week with big gains. The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 2.5 percent, S&P rose 3 percent, and the Nasdaq gained 5 percent. In the U.S stroeaster.gifng jobs data raised speculation the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates as soon as this summer and sent bond yields sharply higher on Friday.

A further reminder of terrorism came on Friday with the failed bid to bomb a high-speed rail line in Spain and the killing of four American contractors in Iraq. UK companies accepting contracts there are in for a difficult time... Next week the U.S starts the new quarter with a few large players reporting such as General Electric whereas in the U.K only smaller companies take the spotlight.MondayBurren Energy oil and gas explorer that floated last December are expected to report sparkling first year resultsIn the U.S watch out for the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing survey barometer of the services sector.Tuesday

Bellway house builder is likely to post its eighth consecutive year of record results by posting interims at the top end of expectations. Over the last 6 months it has increased the number of homes sold by 10.4% and average selling prices by 6.5% on a year ago. Look for profits of 69m compared with 57.1m a year agoftse.gifHighbury House magazines (FastCar magazine and What Satellite & Digital TV) are expected a drop in profits to 7.3m from 9.8m last year due to tough trading conditions and restructuring costs.New Look clothing retailer make a trading statement after the very poor sales at Xmas. Look out for further news of the groups founder Tom Singh's attempt to make a bid for the group. Fibernet give half year results after a strong first quarter. Investors will be looking for news on when the company expect to achieve profitability.Wednesday

Rio Tinto's AGM will provide the main corporate news for the week.PHS hand dryers to office pot plants group said earlier in the year that it was on the lookout for further acquisitions after completing a 100m investment program ahead of schedule. The market is looking for a leap in profits to 43m compared with 36m a year ago. James Beattie departmental stores have been suffering from competition which may lead to a drop in profits from 7m to under 5 million this year despite new store openings.Brammer industrial bearings and chain group recently completed the sale of its telecoms equipment business Livingston for 9.9 million so it can now concentrate on its core business. Look for a rise in profits to 6.6m from 6m and news of further expansion of the business into eastern European markets. Thursday

UK March retails sales figures from the British Retail Consortium may give a lift to shares after the dire news from the CBI last week. Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee may well decide to raise base rates from 4.0 percent following the strong housing market and high consumer debt.

Thoughts

The market is set for a  slow down ahead of the long Easter weekend with few major results or announcements.

On Friday the US markets rose after the UK closes so we should see gains here on Monday morning. On the other hand we are at the top of the 10 day Intraday so I expect any early rise on Monday morning to be folloeaster2.gifwed by a fall back. Certainly I do not have much confidence in it either way but the further terrorism in Spain this weekend may further subdue the markets.

Over the longer term the S&P has managed to regain the 1 year up channel but we have just gone through the 500 day cycle which caused some market nervousness and led to the fall below the support.  This fall back and corresponding rise in March caught out many traders last month and led to many margin calls. If you had a bad month you were not alone!

For every one who posts to the thread we have 20 who just read it, if you are one of them please join in the BB and say 'Hello'

A good Easter week to you all

David (Crocodile)

David@SnappyTrader.com  www.SnappyTrader.com  All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

 

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 13:27 - 4 of 56

Sunday Newspapers

sundaypaper.gifKohlberg Kravis Roberts is interested in making a bid for UK supermarket group J Sainsbury, the Observer reports, citing sources close to the New York-based firm

Economists are divided on whether the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will raise interest rates this week. Some commentators argue that a rate rise is needed immediately to cool the booming housing market. One of America's biggest ever corporate corruption trials has collapsed after a juror received a threatening letter. Tyco's former chairman Dennis Kozlowski and the company's ex-finance chief Mark Swartz were on trial for allegedly siphoning off $600m from the company. BP, A 450 million-dollar gas-fired power plant in Vietnam built and owned by British energy giant BP and other foreign investors was officially opened. House prices across Britain rose by 2.2% last month, according to Halifax, the country's biggest mortgage lender. This left them standing some 18.5% higher in the latest quarter compared with 12 months ago, it says. Russian markets are both exciting and risky. Russia, once a superpower, then a collapsed empire, is rising again. M&S They may be a little short of customers for their clothing ranges, but no-one could accuse them of skimping on head offices.

SUNDAY TIMES Red Sea rejects offer for Gresham Freeserve, BT French internet to invade Britain Tarnished headhunter becomes the judge of Glaxo's board Eircom employees will share 66m windfall LSE AIM's light touch attracts serious money from the main market Pensions scandal hits Mayflower M&S chief concedes more job cuts could be on the way Malahide secures four-star Hilton The Big Food Group, Tesco takeover is challenged Independent News and Mediaset to take newbuild office in Talbot Street

Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Topps Tiles? Cadbury Schweppes, Chocolate firms make dash for Easter profits Focus: Mayflower, The rise and fall of Emperor Ming Marks & Spencer Group Not such bright Sparks Directors' Deals: Carphone co-founder rings up a profit Motorway madness for Man U Should you buy shares in Independent News & Media? United Business Media, Citywire reveals secret City deals Sharewatch: Havelock Europa, An educated rise

Shell quits Spain and Portugal

Diageo has solid long-term growth prospects in Asia and Latin America and plenty of scope for brand extensions. It last reported operating profits of 1.2bn on half-year sales of 5bn. At 723.5p the shares offer a yield* of 3.6%, making Diageo look a compelling long-term bet. BUYGenerics Group technology consulting and investment firm announced plans on Friday for a 7.3m rights issue, without which it will run out of working capital by mid-May. The group has found cost-cutting tough and unpleasant, and it cannot inspire confidence after management took the company so close to the edge.  SELL
SUNDAY TELEGRAPH Courts sell luxury villa WPP vote on knife edge Fears for M&S recovery GSK lines up Roche bid Doubts on Ashtead Canary Wharf auction

WPP Sorrell's $80m Savoy showdown Mayflower Corporation How did Major get it so wrong? City comment: WPP Three in a featherbed romp Royal Bank's secret jet

Vodafone to cut red tape Mayflower set for grilling

Carphone Warehouse is expected to increase its marketing spend over the coming months, but the group expects connections growth to slow to 15% next year from 29.6% during the fourth quarter. It is a well run business, but with little prospect of substantial upside soon. Sell. National Grid Transco predicted last week that earnings per share would be substantially ahead of last year. Merrill Lynch has raised its earnings estimate for the group for the full year and says fair value for the shares is 510p. It should also reap significant rewards from the expected sale later this year of up to four gas distribution businesses. Buy

OBSERVER Reality check as high-flying BA execs go back to basics Manchester United chases 'retro' fans Wall Street 'barbarians' at Sainsbury's gate ITV champion backs 21m pay deal for ITV chief

LSE The times they are Exchangin' M&S: about to get a fillip? Legal & General 'We don't have the option of selling'

MAIL ON SUNDAY Cazenove, Queen's broker goes up for sale Thompson in line for top Camelot job Standard Life swamped by complaints Beano backs Waterstone 62m deal Sales chill sets in at Iceland Asil Nadir fights for his pension Mayflower bosses' pension safety net Shell chief 'had a private army' GSK and Astra building alliances, Drugs giants join the trail to India

Easter egg war breaks out in stores, Sainsbury's rolls out lower prices Ousted boss to swoop for PlaneStation Scottish dairy firm, Wiseman creams off the business Taube takes note of De La Rue Bellway set for Liverpool rebuilding, on course for 20% profit rise Tesco facing whale meat boycott, over sales in Japan Staff walkouts loom at Sainsbury

Bank on brink of raising interest rate, 4.75% expected by end of the year

INDEPENDENT  BP Oil giants boycott Iraq talks Chrysalis Group Overworked Ofcom is slated by the industry Mayflower Corporation Major loses 212,000

Centrica Overworked Ofcom is slated by the industry SMG Overworked Ofcom is slated by the industry  

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY  Mayflower Management buyout bid lined up to rescue TransBus Stagecoach Group Back in gear to battle for the buses Scipher Fife screen factory has saver Axis-Shield Scots directors invest 2.8m in vote of confidence in own firms BP stages some dazzling tricks as Shell takes strain Beattie to run with Leeds PR ball M&S Retailers take centre stage as City prepares for rates rise

Macfarlane Group Wrapped up with optimism

HBoS lends Cala 120m to fund development New blood has to make the grade at SMG ITV production company stands by its record Trade war trap for Wolfson Microelectronics Tepnel biotech relocates to Livingston

THE BUSINESS British Airways: global terrorism continues to weigh on airline but the company should be in the early stages of a cyclical recovery. Analysts expect earnings before interest and tax to be around 369m for the year just ended. Brokers Williams de Broe and Merrill Lynch have buy ratings on the stock, but Oriel Securities says reduce. Gerrard has it as underperforming relative to the sector, and says it is vulnerable to reductions in yields and passenger numbers. Bellway housebuilder is hoping to grow volumes by around 6.5% a year at higher margins. Broker Numis says the group's land bank looks strong, with up to five years worth of land, although the company itself estimates it has three years. The group, which is neither a niche player nor a volume leader, could also be vulnerable to takeover. Numis has a target of 840p for shares, which closed at 803.5p on Friday BUY

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Tips:Buy Bovis (BVS) at 598p - Antisoma (ASM) at 41p - Churchill China (CHH) at 207p - Erinacious (ERG) at 130p. Sell Manchester United (MNU) at 246p.Updates: Keep buying iSoft (IOT) and Kensington (KGN), Buy Monterrico Metals (MNA), Parkdean (PDH) is good value. Peacock (PEA) is overpriced.Company Results: Buy Oystertec (OYS) - Cape (CIU) - 4Imprint (FOUR).The Best of the Privatisation Shares: BAA (BAA) - BG (BG) - Scottish Power (SPW) - Forth Ports (FPT) - BP (BP) - BAE Systems (BA).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy easyJet (EZJ) at 302.25p - Biocompatibles International (BII) at 207p - ATA Group (ATP) at 106p - XKO Group (XKO) at 85p.Updates: Buy 4Imprint (FOUR), Sell Telecom Plus (TEP), Hold Ideal Shopping (IDS).The Analysis Section: William Morrison (MRW) - Sci Entertainment (SEG).Further news: ITM Power is looking to list on AIM.

Zoltar - 04 Apr 2004 15:09 - 5 of 56

Hello.

moneyplus - 04 Apr 2004 15:43 - 6 of 56

Hello. I like to read this thread, very useful. thanks croc.

Melnibone - 04 Apr 2004 17:37 - 7 of 56

 
4600
X
X X O 4500
X O X O X
X O X O X 4400
X O O X
X X O 4300
X O X
X X O X 4200
X X X O X O X
X O X O X O X O 4100
X O X O X O X
X O X O X X O 4000
X O O X O X
X O X O X 3900
X O O X X
X O X O X 3800
O X O X
O X X O X 3700
O X O X O
O X O X 3600
O X O X
O O X 3500
O X
O X 3400
O X
O 3300

Evening all. Updated UKX PnF chart.

Very close to a 4500 triple top. Last time we were over 4500, it was a double top that set

a Bull Trap which resulted in 5 box reversal.

Rightly or wrongly, still sticking with my 'short the Index pops' with the occasional Blue Chip

Divi paying intraday long if a beaten down opportunity presents itself.

This strategy worked fine last week. Made sure I was flat prior to the jobs data and am now

waiting to see if the FTSE can touch 4500 before going short.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 04 Apr 2004 17:41 - 8 of 56

Croc,
I couldn't find the HTML editor on this thread.
Had to go back to Friday's thread to find it.

Am I missing it somewhere, or are you stopping putting the link
on the thread?

Melnibone.

hotwar - 04 Apr 2004 17:41 - 9 of 56

Hello. Very useful thread. Thanks.
What effect is the latest terrorist news from Spain going to have on the markets?

little woman - 04 Apr 2004 17:44 - 10 of 56

Evening all

Catching up with news as I have a busy week ahead.

babhere - 04 Apr 2004 17:48 - 11 of 56

Hello - Regular Sunday read. Thanks Croc.

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 17:51 - 12 of 56

Thanks Mel,
Missing buttons are back :-)

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 17:51 - 13 of 56

Thanks all for saying hello!

little woman - 04 Apr 2004 18:40 - 14 of 56

Pressed the wrong button! (edit)

Melnibone - 04 Apr 2004 18:44 - 15 of 56

Hi Testex,

Nice to hear from you again.

You're right, 'JR' Browne is still 'whupping' them. :-)

Been Spreadbetting the S@P last month.

Ref my CMC Cfd's, had some great opportunities for intraday and
overnight scalps with some of my favourite Blue Chip trading shares.
MKS, SHEL, SBRY, LGEN, HSBA. All took big hits and rebounded nicely.

OOM has been good with all the takeover rumours. Every time it dropped
below 101p I bought it, and every time it dropped below 100p I
'Filled my Boots'. :-))
I think that's the standard phrase used for ramping, isn't it? :-))))

Have a look at a 3 month GSK chart.
You can stick a ruler along it. (or should that read 'Down It').

Melnibone.

ringos_tar_2000 - 04 Apr 2004 18:58 - 16 of 56

Hello all.

This is a useful read for me on most days.

Thanks

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 19:20 - 17 of 56

Pearson 14.8p Ex Divi added.

supervisor - 04 Apr 2004 19:35 - 18 of 56

Hello croc, always find informative happy easter to all.

Diego - 04 Apr 2004 19:52 - 19 of 56

Hello and Good Evening all.

Diego

kantona - 04 Apr 2004 20:24 - 20 of 56

Evening all..croc as always ..thx for effort

Crocodile - 04 Apr 2004 21:52 - 21 of 56

Good to hear from you all!
D.

taximanias - 04 Apr 2004 22:07 - 22 of 56

hello, nice read as always croc, 'glad' to know im not alone in not been able to pick a winner

Melnibone - 04 Apr 2004 22:14 - 23 of 56

I like ironing the frilly things, Testex.

I think my psyche must have damaged when I first heard
Pink Floyd play 'Arnold Layne' in the 1960's. :-))

I fear that I've never been the same since. ;-)

I bet there's a load of young sprogs scratching their heads
now, who've never heard 'Arnold Layne', wondering what I'm
talking about. :-))

Melnibone.

amberjane - 04 Apr 2004 22:58 - 24 of 56

Hi Croc & all,
Watched your preso on Friday, great fun only I was at the back so couldn't see the live trade clearly. If I keep reading your threads, or even attend one of your courses, who knows then one day.........Cheers, Amber

amberjane - 04 Apr 2004 22:58 - 25 of 56

Douggie - 04 Apr 2004 23:53 - 26 of 56

evnin all thanks Croc D.

ThePlayboy - 05 Apr 2004 07:09 - 27 of 56

draw?startDate=02%2F01%2F04&period=3M&pl

MONDAYS FTSE PP

R2 4512
R1 4489
PP 4448
S1 4425
S2 4385

FTSE closed above r2 and gained 3.2pts in the auction! pos weakness through 4455 imho!

WEEKLY FTSE PP

R2 4545
R1 4505
PP 4431
S1 4392
S2 4318

Ftse looking a little overbought now, pos new trading range 4430 to 4490/500! Dow next res 10500/520 the area where it broke down, pos some short term strength next week but will be looking for some weakness myself! see dow chart below!

draw?startDate=02%2F01%2F04&period=3M&pl

ThePlayboy - 05 Apr 2004 07:09 - 28 of 56

Updated 4/2 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 4/5
UP Above 10,500
DN Below 10,400

Strong Session
Dow rallies sharply at Open, holds gains throughout session.

From prior commentary, "...The index continues to develop the upward-sloping consolidation that is forming at the highs of the recent advance...we've often seen these consolidations work out to the upside, so we will continue to monitor both the upper and lower boundaries for breaks..."
The Dow got a sharp rise at the Open this morning, which boosted the index toward new highs, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index back-filled shortly after the Open, but eventually established a clear support level at 10,425, which helped protect a 97 point gain.

Looking at the 60 Minute Chart shows that the Dow ended the week at the highs of the uptrend. The steady advance in the market as not been met by any significant pull-backs, therefore we will watch 10,425 for a break to indicate a likely pull-back within the current overall uptrend Monday.

Otherwise, look for continued strength above this support level. The fact that Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the current uptrend from 10,425 to 10,475 indicates further upside is very likely. Watch this range closely.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the 1 Minute Chart. A downside break of the line at 10,460 will likely make for early weakness Monday morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry levels were triggered. We will now watch 10,500 up, and 10,400 down Monday; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P gapped up this moring, each holding on to gains throughout the session. Look for a continued trend higher, with the possibility of intermediate pull-backs. *

Summary

The Dow opened the session in fierce fashion this morning, and was able to hold on most of the gains throughout the day, which is positive heading into Monday's market. Look for continued strength above 10,400 Monday. Otherwise, a break below 10,400 could spark weakess within the overall uptrend.


ThePlayboy - 05 Apr 2004 07:10 - 29 of 56

DOW-15.gif

zarif - 05 Apr 2004 07:45 - 30 of 56

Morning croc et al:

rgds
zarif

Druid2 - 05 Apr 2004 07:50 - 31 of 56

Hello Croc & thanks. Thanks also to TP. Been following you, Croc, for a few years now from when you were on the other side and on this side from when it started.

Yoyo - 05 Apr 2004 08:15 - 32 of 56

Good morning to all, this is one of my must read threads, I appreciate the time given by all the regulars to post their comments, thank you.

Crocodile - 05 Apr 2004 08:33 - 33 of 56

Morning all and thanks for all the Hello's :-)
Long Sainsbury on takeover news

little woman - 05 Apr 2004 08:43 - 34 of 56

Morning all

Nice to see so many posters, please keep posting. (You never know we may catch up with the traders room!)

I think the dealers (and some of the direct access traders) have all gone on holidays - some of the spreads are a bit wide for the time of day.

Crocodile - 05 Apr 2004 09:26 - 35 of 56

Boss of IKEA takes over from Bill Gates as the worlds richest man.

little woman - 05 Apr 2004 09:28 - 36 of 56

Boss of IKEA? I thought Warren Buffett took over from Bill Gates a few months ago?

Fundamentalist - 05 Apr 2004 09:40 - 37 of 56

Mel

Skp have finally announced the European Depomorphine deal and the price is now testing the 68p resistance. 2 more deals (hopefully) and a horrible set of results to come - could be an interesting few weeks - any views appreciated

Melnibone - 05 Apr 2004 09:55 - 38 of 56

Good news for you, at last, Fundamentalist.

As you say, one down two to go.
The shift to royalties rather than reliance on Lump Payments
should help to smooth earnings flow and allow analysts to
make more accurate future revenue flow forecasts.
This may take some of the wilder volatility swings out
of the shareprice.

Seeing as you are LTBH, I see no reason for you to change
your stance now that the deals you have been waiting for
are starting to materialise.
Just follow your own strategy, it would seem to be serving
you well enough so far. :-)

Melnibone.

little woman - 05 Apr 2004 09:55 - 39 of 56

ETL up 2.25p?

Fundamentalist - 05 Apr 2004 10:17 - 40 of 56

Thanks Mel,

The only reason I would have changed my stance was if the deals had failed to materialise yet again. As for the shift towards royalties and away from milestone paymnts is a huge advantage and will over time remove the huge volatility in results and share price. Looking forward to the next two deals and getting past last years results with renewed confidence

Melnibone - 05 Apr 2004 10:18 - 41 of 56

Anyone got any views on the CMC(D4F) changes?

I don't think that it will affect me with the way
I manage my account and margin requirements, but I'm
not entirely comfortable with signing up to new conditions
that allow them to close positions and 'Fine' me 200
for doing so.

I think that I would be signing away my legal rights to any
form of redress.

I'm trying to see it from their point of view but am struggling
to find a positive advantage for clients in this change.
And if it's not positive for clients then it must be positive
for the company.
Otherwise, why have all this negative publicity for no gain?

Any views welcome.

Melnibone.

little woman - 05 Apr 2004 10:30 - 42 of 56

I'm not the best person to ask about the CMC changes - as I closed my account - it was bad enough that they were able to close positions without letting you know before - and they closed everything, not just one position. But to "fine" you as well - do they want to keep business! Or are they just looking for "muppets" who open accounts, open positions, wipe them out, by closing them, then stop them from taking whats left by fining them! And in some cases creating a debt! Are they going to send the debt collectors in and blacklist people too?

I presume you are doing CFD's Melnibone? Or does this included spreadbetting?

Melnibone - 05 Apr 2004 11:07 - 43 of 56

Thanks for the reply, little woman.
I trade CFD's with them, but I think that the new rules
cover all accounts with them.

The following says to me, that if they wish, they can do
anything they want.

32.2 Following the happening of a Specified Event, CMC shall have
the right to:
(b) charge or debit the Customers Account with an
administration fee in the amount of 200.00 in respect of
each Specified Event;

......................
Specified Event means any of the following:
(k) the Customer fails fully to comply with any obligations under this
Agreement or any Contract;
.............................


5. CMCs rights to limit or close the Customers positions
5.1 CMC shall have the right, whether with or without prior demand,
call or notice, and in addition to any other rights it may have under
this Agreement:
(a) to close out all or part as CMC reasonably considers appropriate
of the Customers open positions:..
...........................................
5.3 In relation to CMCs right to close out all or part of any open
Contract in the circumstances specified in clause 5.1(a) above,
the Customer accepts that CMC may close out which of the
Customers positions and in what proportion that it decides in its
absolute discretion.
.................................................

It's probably all just 'Legalese' for their protection.
But It leaves me with an uncomfortable feeling.

Edit: Just put some dots in to show that these are clauses that
I've picked out, not the entire consecutive wording.

Hope I'm not frightening anyone here. I'm just trying to be careful.
As I've said before, I've never really had any problems with CMC
and always found them to be fair and polite.
Just can't understand this 200 charge they are introducing.
Maybe as Croc has commented, a lot of traders got margined out
recently and maybe they had some legal problems with disgruntled
clients and are just covering themselves for the future.

Melnibone.

Crocodile - 05 Apr 2004 11:33 - 44 of 56

Just cant get Sainsbury right, grrrrrrrr

Ruthies Fund - 05 Apr 2004 11:37 - 45 of 56

Hello Crocodile and happy Easter to all

I enjoy reading this post as an aid to improving my knowledge in this great game
Unfortunately, I'm a working girl so can only dabble occasionally.
Have recently tried out this spread-betting, just small amounts, and find it lots of fun if nerve-racking. Made a small win with LLOY last week mainly due to comments read on this board, so thanks to you all

Ruthie

Druid2 - 05 Apr 2004 11:50 - 46 of 56

Poor old Bill Gates has now moved down to No. 2 richest man in the world. He's only worth $47 billion whilst boss of IKEA is worth $53 billion.

little woman - 05 Apr 2004 12:33 - 47 of 56

Melnibone - you should look at switching to spread betting. I've seen a couple of other companies accounts with spread betting, which I think is better than CFD's as they provide more "options".

On Friday, E-trade offered a special deal for new accounts, which included direct access CFD trading (L2 order book trading using CFD's!) They charge commission, but less than I thought they would. I think croc can get you the reduce comm deal, if you contact him.

Melnibone - 05 Apr 2004 12:43 - 48 of 56

Thanks, little woman.

I've got a spreadbetting account with Capital Spreads which I use
for the S@P.

I'm flat on my CMC account at the moment, so I think I may just
spreadbet the S@P whilst I wait and see if these condition changes
amount to a change in policy or are just 'Legalese bottom covering'
by CMC.
I suspect that's all it is, I'm the naturally suspicious sort that
tends to read the 'Devil in the Detail', and always assume that folk
are working out ways to part me from my 'Worldly Goods' until proved
otherwise. :-)

Melnibone

Crocodile - 05 Apr 2004 13:43 - 49 of 56

Thanks Ruthie, Testex and all the new posters who have said hello!

ThePlayboy - 05 Apr 2004 14:05 - 50 of 56

testex-sorry have been out and now a bit behind, looking to 520 dow, think its out of fuel short term, i,m more bullish med term though!

Melnibone - 05 Apr 2004 15:05 - 51 of 56

Lol Testex.

Anyone stumbling across this thread will think we're
a couple of perverted nutters. :-)

Ref your earlier Dow question, DOW and S@P are trading within
the range they traded in on Friday after they settled from
the strong open.
Need to watch for a break from these ranges for direction IMHO.

Maybe the ISM figures will give direction. Market is still squaring
positions in readiness for the Easter break, IMHO, where it wants
to end up requires a Delorean to find out prior to the event. ;-)

Melnibone.

vasey - 05 Apr 2004 15:14 - 52 of 56

A few weeks back, I bought a few DES (Desire Petroleum).....in case there is anyone on here who is interested, it is up 8.77% today.
draw?startDate=05%2F03%2F04&period=1M&ep

Crocodile - 05 Apr 2004 16:33 - 53 of 56

Well done Vasey
Long DOW 10460, looking interesting after the good data earleir, also in a nice up channel.

little woman - 05 Apr 2004 17:03 - 54 of 56

60+ posts, must be a record. It'll be interesting to see how many post tommorrow

ThePlayboy - 05 Apr 2004 17:08 - 55 of 56

61:)

Realistic - 05 Apr 2004 17:44 - 56 of 56

I always read your interesting thoughts and thread croc. Just 2 points: Any takeover of Sainsburys will have to get past the massive holding of the Sainsbury family.The family may be happy to collect the 6% div and tolerate the appalling performance of the executives.PHS is a service company busy buying up smaller cleaners etc like Mitie and Rentokill but the sare price is stuck in treacle.
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