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Traders Thread - Wednesday 28th April (ULVR)
Crocodile - 27 Apr 2004 21:52
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Major indexes are now flirting with their 200-day moving averages. In April 2003 when it went positive it was a sign the bull market had staying power. When the opposite happens it could be a strong sign that the party is over (CNN). Unilever reported a seven percent rise in first-quarter profits to 851 million euros but said a 1.3 percent rise in its 400 top brand sales was disappointing and behind targets. This was due to the 'Atkins Diet' losing them a few pounds. Imperial Tobacco beat forecasts by 19 million with a 20 percent rise in first-half profit to 454 million pounds as strength in the UK offset higher taxes in Germany, and said the trading outlook remained as expected. Cookson Group electronics and ceramics said positive progress was made by each of its three divisions in the first quarter of 2004 as it reported a profit of 18 million pounds compared to a loss of one million pounds in the same period a year ago Legal & General reported a four percent drop in first quarter sales to 215 million pounds below consensus estimates of 223 million, but said it was confident of gaining market share. Wilson Bowden is trading in line with expectations and has strong forward sales. This gives us confidence that results for the current year will show further improvement and progress for the group," the firm said in a statement ahead of its annual general meeting. |
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U.S
indexes closed higher and techs lower as optimism as major indexes faltered near
the close following reports of a series of explosions in Damascus and continued
fighting in Iraq. Greenspan said high oil prices here to stay and they would
affect businesses but that U.S. is also less energy dependent.
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Calendar: United Kingdom |
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United States (GMT) |
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Europe & World (GMT) |
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Imperial Tobacco (I), Unilever (I), Numis (I), European Motor Holdings (F), Fortune Oil (F), Legal & General (AGM & Trading), Reed Elsevier (AGM & Trading), Aggreko (AGM), Atlantic Global (AGM), Estates and General (AGM), Harrier (AGM), Henderson High Income (AGM),Kidde (AGM),Tarsus (AGM),Travis Perkins (AGM),Wilson Bowden (AGM),Wyevale Garden Centres (AGM),Xaar (AGM),Countrywide Assured (EGM), Entertainment Rights (EGM) |
Anheuser-Busch, Boeing, Moody's,Conoco Phillips, Amerada Hess,Bristol-Myers Squibb, Coca-Cola Enterprises, Comcast, Hilton Hotels, LSI Logic, Xcel Energy, Omnicom, Phelps Dodge, Symantec, Time Warner, Watson Pharmaceuticals, Praxair, JDS Uniphase, QLogic, AT&T Wireless Services, |
Krones, Herman Kronseder Maschinenfabrik MLP, Siemens, Schwarz Pharma, Dialog Semiconductor Plc Accor, L'Air Liquide, Lafarge, WavecomElior, |
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Ex Dividend: Barratt Developments 6.9p, James Halstead 6p, McBride 1.2p, PM 1p, AGA Foodservice 5p, Balfour Beatty 3.4p, Belgravium Technologies 0.3p, Cadbury Schweppes 8.35p, Candover Investments 26.5p, Carillion 3.48p, Centrica 3.7p, Cox Insurance Holdings 1p, 4imprint 3p, GKN 7.8p, Gowrings 1p, Holders Technology 2.5p, Highcroft Investments 7.25p, International Energy 3.6p, Irish Life & Permanent 28.37p, James Halstead 6p, Kidde 1.81p, Kiln 0.4p, Kerry 6.78p, Litho Supplies 1.75p, Marlborough Stirling 0.5p, Mayborn 4.3p, Mersey Docks & Harbour Company 16p, Maiden (The) 4p, Northern Rock 15.8p,(Novar 6.6p, Peterhouse 4p, PSD 3p, Reed Elsevier 8.7p, RMC 21.8p, Rutland Trust 0.8p, Secure Trust Banking 20.5p, Singer & Friedlander 26p, Senior 1.35p, Systems Union 1p, Thompson Clive Investments 7.83p, Torday & Carlisle 1p, TDG 8.75p, Telemetrix 2.15p, Tomkins 7.4p, Tesco Weir 9.05p, Wilson Bowden 25.5p, Xstrata 13p, |
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jj50
- 27 Apr 2004 22:04
- 2 of 33
Crocodile - 27 Apr 2004 23:55 - 3 of 33
Just arrived in France so enjoyed a nice evening meal and a nice bottle of wine.
Thunder outside so perhaps its time for bed!
D.
ThePlayboy
- 28 Apr 2004 07:14
- 4 of 33
R1 4588
PP 4569
S1 4556
S2 4537
Ftse closed above its pp on Tue but lost 5.1pts in the auction, broke up intraday just above the 3 day downtrend at 4575 and has now closed right on the line, but gains may be limited if the dow cannot close above 10500, if it can then Fri high of 4600 r2 may be on the cards, weakness sub 570 ftse imho!
Updated 4/27 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 4/28
UP Above 10,550
DN Below 10,450
Round Trip
Dow rallies at outset, but declines to the Close. Watch lower trend line.
From prior commentary, "...The index continues to trade sideways within the consolidation boundaries. Look for further sideways movement until a clear and solid break occurs..."
The Dow pushed higher early in the session, breaking through the 10,500 level, but was not able to maintain the momentum. The 15 Minute Chart shows the Dow held above 10,500 for much of the session, but eventually sold off to the Close.
The index held on to a 33 point gain, but is beginning to look vulnerable at the highs of the recent upmove, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. A wide, expanding range has now formed at the highs, which indicates a current instability at the top.
Also, the index has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the recent advance. All these factors indicate we could see a move lower tomorrow, especially if the lower trend line is crossed at 10,450. Such a break will likely spark a sharp decline toward recent lows at around 10,300.
However, look for the index to continue to slosh around above 10,450. If the Dow holds above this level, we could see further sideways-to-up movement toward 10,550.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow ended the day within a tight range from 10,460 to 10,485, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Watch for a break from this range for direction tomorrow morning.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Long this morning at 10,520, but stopped out with a 20 point loss. We are still out of the market and will watch 10,450 down, and 10,550 up tomorrow, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ continues to hold within a clear trading range, while the S&P is holding above a clear lower trend line. Each of these patterns will be key for tomorrow's market. *
Summary
The Dow rallied to begin the day, but later consolidated before getting a downside break to the Close. The index continues to hold at the current highs, but now looks to be showing signs weakness. A downside break through the lower trend line at 10,450 will indicate a push lower tomorrow. Otherwise, look for continued range movement.
Druid2
- 28 Apr 2004 07:38
- 5 of 33
Crocodile - 28 Apr 2004 07:42 - 6 of 33
zarif
- 28 Apr 2004 07:50
- 7 of 33
little woman
- 28 Apr 2004 08:35
- 8 of 33
RMC long after dropping more than 15 ex div
Melnibone - 28 Apr 2004 09:00 - 9 of 33
That's the best 'Allo Allo' French accent I can muster at
this time of day. :-)
Not much to say, we seem to be still bumbling around amongst all
the noisy area I posted recently on my P@F charts.
Will just continue to scalp whilst waiting for direction for a
swing trade.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 28 Apr 2004 09:05
- 10 of 33
ThePlayboy
- 28 Apr 2004 09:08
- 11 of 33
Melnibone - 28 Apr 2004 09:11 - 12 of 33
All that LTBH stuff is just a smokescreen.
Go on, admit it. :-))
Long LGEN, by the way. I still think we're range trading.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 28 Apr 2004 09:15 - 13 of 33
I'm watching the 1134/35 level on the S@P.
I think that is the support level that needs to break for
markets to go lower.
If it holds, it gives the bottom of the range which stretches
back up to 1149.
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 28 Apr 2004 09:16
- 14 of 33
jj50
- 28 Apr 2004 09:17
- 15 of 33
Thanks for all the info Playboy!
ThePlayboy
- 28 Apr 2004 09:21
- 16 of 33
Melnibone - 28 Apr 2004 09:29 - 17 of 33
For the Nas100 1475/80.
Initial jobs and GDP data will be the catalyst, barring an event.
Looking for range trading until these are known, unless there's a
leak to the selected few prior to the announcements that causes
a premature break.
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 28 Apr 2004 09:33
- 18 of 33
Melnibone - 28 Apr 2004 09:50 - 19 of 33
the 3/4 day downtrend channel, but is also at the bottom
of Croc's 10/12 day uptrend channel.
Unless the US breaks support, this should be the approx FTSE
support level.
Melnibone.
little woman
- 28 Apr 2004 09:53
- 20 of 33
Still have several LT portfolios, but as I'm supposed to be looking for full time employment, I thought I'd take the opportunity to trade again while I can!
I keep meaning to go short, but at the moment it doesn't seem to be happening!
All these people who can write in French - I can't even speak it - I actually did the O'level (do they still have such things?) and managed to get a U!
ThePlayboy
- 28 Apr 2004 09:55
- 21 of 33
Melnibone - 28 Apr 2004 09:56 - 22 of 33
Damn thing won't come down again today. Should have stuck
to the trailing take profit stop instead of trying to be clever.:-(
Why do we have to keep re-learning these lessons.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 28 Apr 2004 10:00 - 23 of 33
It's the Universal Anglo/French lanquage. :-)
Melnibone.
amberjane
- 28 Apr 2004 10:16
- 24 of 33
little woman
- 28 Apr 2004 11:04
- 25 of 33
jj50
- 28 Apr 2004 12:21
- 26 of 33
stockbunny
- 28 Apr 2004 13:06
- 27 of 33
the last few days?
On a different note ULVR is looking tempting....again....
stockbunny
- 28 Apr 2004 13:15
- 28 of 33
MLC trades today - 7 buys of either 4,908 shares or 4,907 shares
since 8:42 this morning.
coincidence???? It's an odd amount to keep cropping up!
little woman
- 28 Apr 2004 14:29
- 29 of 33
ULVR may drop below 500 that's when it'll get interesting again!
stockbunny
- 28 Apr 2004 14:35
- 30 of 33
back!
Also agree on the trades for MLC, it doesn't look human
anyway, no-one is that disciplined!! I'm trying to sit on my hands
with it,but will sell soon, the rise is too steep frankly recently
and there is nothing to truly back it up, so it will plunge down
again and I don't intend being left with it yet again when it happens!
(Not now the divi. has been savagely cut!!!)
(Have another bag of M&M's for the afternoon..)
stockbunny
- 28 Apr 2004 15:17
- 31 of 33
look of those strange repeating buying trades, if it starts to
offload whats been bought, the price could react badly.
(Mind you, sods law, watch it now rise for a fortnight!!)
I've been stuck before when it dropped and than took months to
recover - money would be better elsewhere...
little woman
- 28 Apr 2004 15:48
- 32 of 33
little woman
- 28 Apr 2004 16:06
- 33 of 33
Just been over on my US account - thought I better sell my Nortel shares, while I can!
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