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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Monday 10th May (OIL)     

Crocodile - 09 May 2004 12:46

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UK News

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Gold/Bond

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Markets 

Futures

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Day 2 Day 5 Day US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei-554 Hang Seng-334  Asia News

  DAX    CAC     Euro News

Big falls in Asia overnight on concerns over the rise in oil prices and U.S. interest rates worries.

The DOW Jones could test the 10,000 level in trading today.

Marks & Spencer, Luc Vandevelde will step down as chairman following criticism he is not spending enough time on the job

Securicor said it had maintained its good start to the year as it reported a 10.5 percent rise in underlying first-half profit to 39.0 million

Ebookers online travel agency said sales in the first quarter rose 47 percent to 160 million with and a profit of 1.3 million pounds up from a loss of 4.9 in the same period a year ago. They also said that 270 jobs would be cut in Europe and India as part of a cost-cutting programme saving the company around 2.5 million pounds and they were increasingly confident of the year ahead.

3i Group, A string of U.S. investment banks and private equity houses are looking at a possible five billion pound bid for the company according to the Sunday Express

Balfour Beatty says it has won United States road construction contracts worth more than $200 million.

Canary Wharf, Investors owning about 13 percent of plan to reject both rival bids in the 1.7 billion pound takeover battle for the property firm

Bunzl has bought French cleaning and safety products distributor Groupe Pierre Le Goff for 236 million euros

Aggregate said it would buy U.S. construction firm Frehner for $95.8 million

Chrysalis said its first-half revenues were flat, and profit fell to 2.2 million pounds from 7.6 million pounds mainly due to the disposal of its television unit last year. SMG said it had agreed to sell its 25 percent stake in breakfast television firm GMTV Ltd to ITV Plc for 31 million pounds

ukf.gif Calendar:  United Kingdom usf.gif  United States (GMT) euro.gif  Europe & World (GMT)

 Chrysalis Group (I), Diploma (I), Securicor (I), Windsor (I) Bizspace (F), CryptoLogic (F), Centrica (AGM)April PPI (08:30), BRC April Retail Sales Monitor (17:30)

Symbol Technologies

Bayer AG, Commerzbank AG

Lagardere Groupe, Sopra Group

Data Download

FTSE Intraday

Calendar

US Zone

HTML Edit

Currency Calc

Dividends

Director Dealings

Broker Upgrades / Tips

David@SnappyTrader.com   www.SnappyTrader.com

Pre Market Futures

FTSE -50

DAX-60

DOW-71

S&P-7.7

Nasdaq-17

Crocodile - 09 May 2004 12:46 - 2 of 22

ukf.gif  United Kingdom  - Calendar: 10th - 14th May usf.gif United States (GMT) euro.gif Europe & World (GMT)

 Chrysalis Group (I), Diploma (I), Securicor (I), Windsor (I) Bizspace (F), CryptoLogic (F), Centrica (AGM)April PPI (08:30) BRC April Retail Sales Monitor (17:30)

Symbol Technologies

Bayer AG, Commerzbank AG

Lagardere Groupe, Sopra Group

Centurion Electronics (I), Enodis (I), Sage Group (I), Robert Wiseman (F), UKbetting (F),Johnson Service Group (AGM), Macfarlane Group (AGM), Standard Chartered (AGM), WSP Group (AGM),March Industrial/Manufacturing Output (08:30) NIESR GDP Estimate 

Cisco Systems, TJX Companies May Department Stores, Mylan Labs El Paso, Meridian Gold

Degussa AG, IWKA AG RWE AG, Rheinmetall AG Wella AG, CNP Assurances Klepierre SA

BSkyB (I), Fulcrum (I), Alliance Pharma (F), FirstGroup (F), Galen Pharma (I), N Brown (F), Carillion (AGM), Gallaher (AGM), Guinness Peat (AGM), Maisha (AGM), Mallett (AGM), Nichols (AGM), Ottakar's (AGM), Quarto Group (AGM), Spectris (AGM), Taylor Nelson (AGM), Unilever (AGM), Watermark Group (AGM), Weir Group (AGM)BOE Inflation Report (09:30) Labour Market Report (08:30) March Trade (08:30)

Walt Disney Computer Associates International Federated Department Stores Compuware

1.30pm Export Prices ex-ag. 1.30pm Import Prices ex-oil 1.30pm Trade Balance

Le Carbone Lorraine European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company EADS NV GFI Informatique SA

Enel (IT)

Ex Dividend: AMEC 284.25 6.90 2.43%, Anglo Irish Bank Corporation 13.25 7.52c 0.57%, Antofagasta 925.00 12.84 1.39%, Andrews Sykes Group 217.00 3.00 1.38%, BP 500.50 3.67 0.73%, Booth Industries Group 29.50 5.00 16.95%, Bertam Holdings 285.00 6.25 2.19%, Beattie (James) 132.00 8.40 6.36%, Chemring Group 442.00 4.85 1.10%, Gresham House 442.50 3.10 0.70%, GlaxoSmithKline 1195.00 10.00 0.84%, Hydro International 122.00 1.50 1.23%, Incepta Group 103.50 1.00 0.97%, Jennings Brothers 249.00 4.30 1.73%, Lookers 287.50 7.70 2.68%, Metalrax Group 88.50 3.75 4.24%, Premier Direct Group 747.50 7.00 0.94%, REXAM 457.25 9.58 2.10%, Richmond Foods 517.50 1.00 0.19%, Severfield-Rowen 390.00 10.75 2.76%, Trio Holdings 26.75 0.25 0.93%, Wensum Company 84.50 4.20 4.97%, Whitbread 769.50 16.20 2.11%

Ultraframe (I), Zytronic (I), QXL ricardo (F), BOC (I), Reckitt Benckiser (I), RSA Royal and Sun Alliance (I), Lonmin (I), III 3i (F), Lastminute.Com (Q2)BAA (Traffic April), Balfour Beatty (AGM), Mersey Docks (AGM), Reckitt Benckiser (AGM), ARM Holdings (Trading), Next (Trading)Goverment Housebuilding Data for Jan-March 

Analog Devices, Target Dell, Tiffany & Co Wal-Mart Stores, Kohl's Corp

1.30pm Core PPI 1.30pm Initial Claims 1.30pm PPI 1.30pm Retail Sales 1.30pm Retail Sales ex-auto

Altran Technologies Compagnie Generale de Geophysique Societe Generale Hermes, Groupe Steria SCA Euronext NV

Synergy Healthcare (F).Aveva Group (EGM), Autologic Holdings (AGM), Carillion (AGM), Churchill China (AGM), Edinburgh Oil and Gas (AGM), IMI (AGM), Intertek Testing Services (AGM), iTouch (AGM), Old Mutual (AGM), Universe Group (AGM), Bunzl (AGM)

1.30pm Business Inventories 1.30pm CPI, Core CPI 2.15pm Capacity Utilization 2.15pm Industrial Production 2.15pm Mich Sentiment-Prel. 7pm Treasury Budget

Allianz AG Holding, Salzgitter AG Thyssen Krupp AG Deutsche Post AG REpower Systems AG Thales, Euro Disney SCA Gecina, Atos Origin

Provisional Calendar For Equities The Week Following 17th - 21st May

Cambridge Antibody (I), British Airways (F), DCC (F), Mice Group (F), William Hill (F), Clubhaus (EGM), Yoomedia (EGM), Fulmar (AGM), GlaxoSmithKline (AGM),

Abacus Group (I), Care (I), Countryside Properties (I), Enterprise Inns (I), SCS Upholstery (I), BAA (F), Business Post (F), Land Securities (F), Luminar (F), Yell Group (F), Corin Group (AGM), DataCash (AGM), Fitzhardinge (AGM), Glanbia (AGM),

 Compass Group (I), Holidaybreak (I), Mitchells & Butlers (I), Aveva Group (F), LiDCO (F), Sainsbury (F), Scottish and Southern Energy (F)Freeport (EGM), Advanced Medical Solutions (AGM),  Amlin (AGM), Bunzl (AGM), Harrier Group (AGM), Rutland Trust (AGM), TT Electronics (AGM),

Ex Dividend: Aberdeen Asset Management 80.50 2.00 2.48%, Boot (Henry) 406.00 10.80 2.66%, Collins Stewart Tullett 425.75 5.25 1.23%, DFS Furniture Company 442.00 7.00 1.58%, Hercules Property Services 281.50 1.60 0.57%, Inchcape 1525.00 26.00 1.70%, Metnor Group 230.00 6.00 2.61%, Spectris 477.00 9.30 1.95%, Ted Baker 437.00 6.40 1.46%, Tullow Oil 101.50 1.00 0.99%, TT electronics 149.00 6.36 4.27%, Coal 138.50 5.00 3.61%, Unilever 528.00 11.92 2.26%, Universe Group 26.00 1.17 4.50%

BAvon Rubber (I), RingProp (I), Babcock International (F), BPB (F), Findel (F), Glenmorangie 'A' (F), Imagination Technologies (F), Invensys (F), London Stock Exchange (F), Luminar (F), Man Group (F), Mothercare (F), National Grid Transco (F), United Utilities (F),Derwent Valley (AGM), Friends Provident (AGM), Graphite Enterprise Trust (AGM), International Energy Group (AGM), MFI Furniture Group (AGM), North Midland Construction (AGM), William Morrison (AGM)

AttentiV Systems (I),

 

Trading Thoughts For The Week Ahead  - Sunday 9th May

BSkyB, Reckitt Benckiser, BOC, Unilever, Next, RSA and Sage Group are among 15 FTSE 100 companies due to release results or a trading update next week. A recent report by the Confederation of British Industry suggested that shoppers came out in force over the Easter holidays sending retail sales surging. On Monday the British Retail Consortium delivers its verdict on the health of the retailer sector. MondaySecuricor which is merging with its Danish rival Group 4 Falck in a deal that will hand it a 42.5% stake in the newly enlarged company is expected to announce a 24% increase in half yearly profits to 32mChrysalis radio recently claimed it's LBC radio station was the clear winner in the London breakfast-show war, following the release of the latest RAJAR audience figures.  

Tuesday

Robert Wiseman Dairies are expected to report a 25% rise in annual profits to 29m supported by volumes rising by around 14% last year aided by a number of contract wins with major supermarket chains including Tesco. Sage release interim results after a trading update last month pointed towards sales of around 332m and pre-tax profits of 87.1m against 77.1m a year ago. The group which is the UK's largest IT company has seen a good performance from its UK operation but US trading has been weak.Wednesday

FirstGroup rail and bus company is expected to report a 2.1% fall in full year profits to 147.2m due to a 10m rise in the costs of bidding for rail franchisesGalen pharmaceuticals could announce that half year profits have doubled to 36.1m from 18.7m with sales growth 50% higher after the group bought four drugs last year. There are worries however that prescriptions of key medicines are not rising and this could lead to a broker downgrade British Sky Broadcasting is forecast to post a hefty rise in third quarter earnings, though analysts say its new customer growth may be slowing.

Unilever is likely to face a tough shareholder meeting after last month unveiling sluggish growth for its top brands.dow.gifDimension Data IT reports interims after turning a profit of $30m into a loss of $36m last year. It announced then that it was not holding out much hope for an upturn in new IT spending by its customers either.The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report should offer clues on whether this week's rate rise will be followed by more tightening.Thursday

BOC are expected to announce profits of about 117m against 95.9m last time benefiting from improved industrial demand across all business groups and cost cutting. Royal Sun Alliance's, Last month, in a note to clients UBS said since last results, it has made some material changes to its forecasts. UBS argued that it sees the group's capital position as weak, given regulatory changes and the wind-down of the US business. Lastminute.com shares have continued to fall from a high of 316p to 190p in the last year despite making a marginally positive cash generation in the first quarter.3i Group venture capitalist releases annual results after saying in March that provisions for failing investments should be substantially lower than a year ago. Full-year profits of 57m have been chalked in, with net asset value expected to come in between 545p and 565p.  

Friday

Synergy Healthcare shares recently hit a new high after it said trading was exceeding all management expectations. C&C, which owns Bulmers cider and Ballygowan water, is due to float in London and Dublin next Friday, two years after shelvingftse.gif a previous plan to list. It aims to raise 440 million euros from the offer, valuing it at about 800 million euros.US: Friday's non-farm payrolls data will be seen as a pointer to when the Fed will begin its interest rate tightening cycle. The forecast is for a gain of 173,000 in April compared with March's huge jump of 308,000

Thoughts Despite generally upbeat earnings and economic news the markets are battling with the threat of interest rate rises, terrorism and now the possibility that oil is being used as a weapon to damage the U.S. economy. America is the worlds 5th most populous country but uses 25% of the whole worlds production of crude oil.

The top chart shows the effect on the DOW Jones when International tensions have forced oil prices higher. The scale is logarithmic so at first glance it does not appear to have been to severe. However the peak of close to 30$ a barrel in 2000 coincided with a fall of 1/3rd on the US markets.

Looking at the 10 day Intraday chart the DOW has fallen nearly 2% against the FTSE which does not bode well for the UK market for the start of next week.

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on wish you good trading for the week ahead.

David  David@SnappyTrader.com www.SnappyTrader.com

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research.

Crocodile - 09 May 2004 12:47 - 3 of 22

Sunday Newspapers 

sundaypaper.gifSome of the City's biggest investment banks are believed to have approached the Government to seek a mandate to privatise Royal Mail within the next year to 18 months.

The board of Abbey National is debating whether to reopen talks with Spains Banco Santander Central Hispano (BSCH), and in effect hold an auction of Britains sixth-biggest bank. The BSCH approach, made six weeks ago and described as a serious offer of intent, comes at a time when there are growing fears that Abbeys recovery is stalling.

SUNDAY TIMES Jurys Doyle executives pay 20m for Travelodge Ireland Abbey board to reconsider serious offer by Spanish bank Regus under fire over 59m exec share plan Dixons tunes up for Napster deal BAE loses its battle with government Cox joins the top table as BP prepares for life after Browne Scotland: Clyde yards on brink as BAE ditched BAE row over Eurofighters rising costs

Lloyds, How bad are Britain's big banks? LSE: Where have all the plcs gone? N Brown Foreigners should create jobs - not clean our loos

Sharewatch: Sibir Energy

Prufrock: Price is right says Fred for RBSs new HQ RBS How bad are Britain's big banks? Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in United Drug? N Brown From rag trade to rich peer of the realm Directors' Deals: Incisive Media bosses cut their holdings I'm leaving Lloyds after more than 20 years' Sharewatch: Matalan HSBC How bad are Britain's big banks? Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in National Express? Barclays How bad are Britain's big banks? WPP Global optimism to spur ad boom  

 
SUNDAY TELEGRAPH MBNA swoop on Egg GSK given 'amber top' warning Sainsbury to quit ABI alert on French Connection BAE demands MoD profit guarantee

GlaxoSmithKline, Uneasy truce over 'fat cat' pay BT needs a corporate bifurcation Dixons, Time to pull the plug on an ageing brand?

Pursuit Dynamics dive probe Dixons ready to change name

 

OBSERVER  BT may face 15bn takeover Ritblat junior turns down top job at British Land The Big Food Group set to table bid for Londis Shell halts crucial Sakhalin pipeline project Pirc targets Smith and Nephew pay

Barclays The world on his shoulders Amec, Knight in the Iraqi inferno Break up the BT monster Tesco Specialists all over the shop as Big Two bite

MAIL ON SUNDAY Royal Mail poised for flotation, Billions for Government 10m dividend suits Paul Smith, Designer fashions bumper payment Abbey in lead, chased by Spanish bank BAE's secret plans to sell shipyards, Group approached three companies Coffee shops to plug Dixons gap, Nero targets High Street sites Superstores hit Matalan profits, Figures expected to be halved Can Leighton letter save Royal Mail?, Reaction follows scathing documentary 635,000 legal bill for The Plumber, High Court rules for shareholders Tax probe order for Chelsea boss, Russian watchdog summons Abramovich Londis fight isn't over, says BFG, 'Don't rule us out of a bid'

Telegraph bidders get more time, Bank to extend takeover deadline Tullow Oil poised for Africa bid, Share placing to raise 100m Dutch minority block Shell reform, Pressure to overhaul board structure Fury over Man U boss's share sale, 'It's outrageous,' say angry fans Newcomer to snap up restaurants, Urban Dining heading for Aim New jet to give Rolls a boost, Firm on course for Dreamliner orders Robosapien to strengthen Character, Hopes pinned on dancing robot Brighter outlook for ML PlaneStation to sell festival site, Plan to bring back chief executive Baltimore faces knife-edge vote, D-day looms for the management

INDEPENDENT BAE threatens ministers: back us or we quit aircraft carrier deal RBS director charged with misuse of funds Watchdog shakes up oil audits in the wake of Shell scandal

Freeserve, Wanadoo and the raspberry revolution The BAE rockers need to give up fighting the MoD

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY Out of fashion Matalan set for profits slump HBOS to buy 150m property portfolio Baltimore vote 'will go down to the wire'  

Fund scandal set to cost Amvescap more than a fine Good times ahead as broadband-fuelled Thus hits its targets

THE BUSINESS

INVESTORS CHRONICLE Tips: Buy National Express (NEX) at 688p- McCarthy & Stone (MCTY) at 575p - North Midland Construction (NMD) at 127p - Bond International Software (BDI) at 45p - Conister Trust (CTU) at 29p. Sell Eidos (EID) at 173p.Updates: Buy Quarto (QRT) and BP (BP) - Sell Manchester United (MNU) - African Diamonds (AFD) are high enough.- Antisoma - (ASM) is fairly priced.Company Results: Sell WH Smith (SMWH).

SHARES MAGAZINE Plays of the Week: Buy Robotic Technologies (RTS) at 50p - Surfcontrol (SRF) at 606p - British Energy (BGY) at 9.74p - Regal Petroleum (RPT) at 367p.Updates: Buy Aveva (AVV) and ASOS (ASC).The Best of the Dollar Earners: Amvescap (AVZ) - Pearson (PSON) - Diageo (DGE) - Tomkins (TOMK) - Wolseley (WOS).

David@SnappyTrader.com   www.SnappyTrader.com

hijeff - 09 May 2004 19:39 - 4 of 22

croc cant find anything re cng and lastminute?

taximanias - 09 May 2004 20:13 - 5 of 22

Hi croc, not sure i understand this bit??
Looking at the 10 day Intraday chart the DOW has fallen nearly 2% against the DOW which does not bode well for the UK market for the start of next week

Crocodile - 09 May 2004 20:22 - 6 of 22

errr FTSE :-)

zarif - 10 May 2004 07:36 - 7 of 22

morning croc and all.

Crocodile - 10 May 2004 07:37 - 8 of 22

Morning all,
hijeff looking ...

little woman - 10 May 2004 08:10 - 9 of 22

Morning all

Interesting start to the day - FTSE down over 55!

jj50 - 10 May 2004 08:23 - 10 of 22

"Interesting" is one way of putting it! Morning all

Melnibone - 10 May 2004 11:02 - 11 of 22

graph.php?size=Big&movingAverageString=%

Morning all,
Can hardly move today. Bent down on Saturday morning and popped
my back. That's me housebound for a while. Looks like Mrs. M. will
have to go shopping on her own.
Shame. ;-)

Don't get too down with the markets. Look at the MA's and trend above.
I kept banging on recently about buying breakouts near the top of a
range and this recent price action shows why.

200Ma should give support at the bottom of the channel. If we reach
it depends on whether the US holds recent lows. Futures are already
at them. Still in the noisy area on the P@F charts.

US and China are still growing GDP, it's still US election year.
Don't know where the market lows are going to be, but unless the
economic situation changes I still don't think that we've seen the
yearly highs.

Just need to watch support levels and sentiment and be prepared to
listen to the market, not your own ideas which will be coloured by
your positions.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 10 May 2004 11:15 - 12 of 22

graph.php?movingAverageString=%2C60%2C20

Just for the hurting Bulls.
Look at the gap between the Friday close and the Monday open
on the candles. Look at the body not the wick.
This will probably get filled at some point, same as the one I
mentioned on SHEL earlier this year.

Melnibone.

Velocity - 10 May 2004 12:33 - 13 of 22

be interesting to see if the support at 4290 holds!

jj50 - 10 May 2004 12:43 - 14 of 22

Thanks for the glimmer of hope Melnibone and hope your back recovers rapidly too. It is certainly red across the board - quite depressing.

stockbunny - 10 May 2004 13:22 - 15 of 22

Sorry to hear about your back Melnibone - I'm sure Mrs.M will
stall the shopping until you're better if you ask very nicely
(giggle)

It's a red Monday, but also a lot of bargains out there, that's
the beauty (in my humble opinion of course) of days like today.
Gathered in another little lot of LLOY shares this morning, going
nice and reasonably and couldn't resist for the long term income
side of my portfolio.

Be lucky people, however you 'play' the day!

Melnibone - 10 May 2004 15:19 - 16 of 22

Thanks for commiserations, jj50 and stockbunny, this is about
the seventh time it's popped now since I first did it in the 1980's.

I find it heals quicker now if I do the opposite to what the Doctors
say. Instead of lying flat, I dose up with painkillers and keep it
moving. I look like a drunk Quasimodo waddling around for a while,
but it's usually OK within a fortnight and it doesn't heal up tight
ready to pop again.

Like your style, stocking up on your Blue Chips, stockbunny, got my
eye on a few myself that pay fat divis that the fundies will be watching.

US is still flirting with the March lows, so early days to call a bottom
just yet, IMHO, but if your stocks meet your value criteria and you are
LTBH, then why not top up. For LTBH'ers that's what market noise is for,
it gives them the entry opportunities that they patiently wait for.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 10 May 2004 15:32 - 17 of 22

Anyone managed to get the free Level 2 data that CMC
have now incorporated into their MarketMaker platform?

I've tried clicking on the link for each share but nothing
seems to happen.
Maybe it's got some teething problems.

Melnibone.

little woman - 10 May 2004 15:53 - 18 of 22

DJ(I) has broken 10000!

stockbunny - 10 May 2004 16:03 - 19 of 22

Ouch!
You been doing any bargain hunting Little Woman today?

little woman - 10 May 2004 16:13 - 20 of 22

Lots of stop losses (and overall I'm in profit) have been kicking in over the last couple of weeks, and I have lots of cash. Will wait & see before going back in.

I've been trading CNA (both long & short CFD) & currently am short. Its been a bit fustrating, as it keeps pulling back very quickly before dropping again. So far I've managed to keep ahead each time!

graph.php?startDate=10%2F05%2F04&period=

stockbunny - 10 May 2004 16:18 - 21 of 22

Good for you Little Woman and being in profit on a day like
today I think is pretty impressive (I wonder how many are
nursing losses today..) The DOW looks awful - just put up the chart
from 2pm today and its similar to a downhill run at some ski resort!
Well I'm done for the day, have a good evening!

little woman - 10 May 2004 16:42 - 22 of 22

I managed to close my CNA in the auction at a profit. I have no open positions. I've been very careful at the moment as I'm very unsure of the market.

I'd love to trade the Dow, but it'll turn just as I do it, so best left alone!

Just a few loose ends to tide up, and then off for 9 holes of golf to finish the evening.

Enjoy the evening everyone.
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