Please see S/Tele Share Tips belivies that griffin has had talks with Anglo American & also Ivanho Mines RE: negotations starting @ 50p with management requiring more per share.!!

have held griffin mining for some years, would be obliged of any further information on possible takeover, thanks

Griffin soon to be de-listed from berlin exchange = panic buying by those who went short big time. IMHO.

Does anyone have any news on why Griffin are currently on the move up. I know the results recently reported were encouraging but do not explain the improvement. Is the takeover imminent?

There is talk of bids from three interested parties who want to buy as the GFM share price is undervalued and they seem to thing they can get it on the cheap but GFM must worth about 50p, would that be a fair price any views please.

http://www.griffinmining.com/gmphoto.htm

Anyone know if these bid rumours that were going around a month
ago as still about/live/come to anything???
cheers for any info!

It might be because they are being re-rated from expo to producer, but there are still the same bid rumours.

Cheers aldwickk!
Be Lucky!

Have a look at the photo section on their site, it looks very impressive, having just been up-dated!

I hold the shares btw.

Nice to know there's more of us RayRac!
let's hope we all get lucky!!
Yes the photos look good, shows there's something tangible there!
;>)

Bet CDN wish they had photo's like that.

Don't know Cal.Resources that well - why are they having problems?

Production 1st qtr 2005...that's what they say. Going by the speed of construction and the state of developement it looks very likely! I would hardly think they would do all that without something worthwhile underground.

Seem to get value for money in China, labour very cheap so costs can be quite low. It all helps. :)

Agreed RayRac - price has unfortunately taken a tumble this pm
though, which is a shame....

Charles Stanley note

Mine opening looms

The development of Griffins Caijiaying zinc/gold mine in China is on time and within budget. The mine is expected to be commissioned next April with cash flow a month thereafter. The Company has been stockpiling ore extracted during the current construction phase and production will start immediately on commissioning. Whilst this important stage has progressed satisfactorily but unspectacularly, Griffins share price has trodden water. In the New Year we would expect interest in Caijiaying to revive as production nears and with that Griffins share price should also move ahead.

The Company has been able to both outline material amounts of ore for initial mining and stockpile ore recovered as a result of development work, and this will enable production to run at the fully expanded annualised rate sooner than originally anticipated, with positive implications for initial cash flow.

Aside from the expectation of the mines start-up, in 2005 Griffin will also be drilling a number of highly prospective epithermal gold targets. The budget for this programme is $1 million plus. Mine development expenditure has meant that exploration on Griffins leases has had to be reined back over the last few months. With exploration spending restored, the Company will be firing on all cylinders in 2005.

The zinc price has traded within a fairly narrow range over the last 12 months and is currently towards the top of this range. However, it remains at around half its historic high which was reached in 1989 and just a third of its 1974 inflation adjusted peak. We would look for zinc to continue to improve especially as China has become a net importer of the metal, and is expected to continue to be so for the foreseeable future.

Griffin, which has been active in China longer than any other foreign mining company, continues to be offered high-class mining projects in China by various government and ex government agencies. As Caijiaying nears production it is likely that the Company will acquire another major mining project in the country.

Griffin is one of the few AIM listed miners with a real prospect of operational cash flow in the near term. As April looms we would expect a surge in interest in the shares and this would be materially bolstered if the gold exploration programme is successful.

Estimating pre-tax profits of $0 in 2004, $7,700,000 in 2005 and $28,800,000 in 2006.

Further good news today. Unexpected bonus reserves of zinc have been found. Should see a steady pick up in the price this week. Shame the US aren't trading today. May have to wait untill tomorrow to see the next big jump upwards.

Should be a sound investment for the middle to long term, imo.

Morgan Stanley maintained its 'overweight' stance on Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.

The US broker raised its forecasts for both stocks and argued that it believes dollar weakness and robust longer-term prospects for China are leading to a period of stronger commodity pricing.

There was demand for Griffin Mining, 2-1/2 pence higher ahead at 31-1/4, in the wake of positive drilling results. Underground drilling results have identified new zones of high-grade zinc ore at the Caijiaying zinc/gold mine in China.

The results exceeded the company's expectations by finding high-grade zinc in zones not included in the original feasibility study ore reserve.

Personally I'm delighted with the moves last week and this week,
although with announcements only coming recently, it does make
you wonder what was driving the share price moves upwards before.
Maybe some lucky hunches paying off....

950,000 T buy at the close.

: January 19, 2005

Griffin Mining On Schedule And Under Budget With Development Of First Western Owned Mine In China.

It is not easy to find much in the way of news to announce when developing a new mine, especially when it is the only advanced project owned at the time. Thus Griffin Mining has had to rely on a few photographs to prove that things are moving along on schedule at its Caijiaying zinc gold operation in China. This is due to be commissioned in the spring of this year and looks like being the first western owned mine to commence production in China since that country opened up to foreign ownership. Unfortunately Roger Goodwin, the finance director, is in China and could not be contacted to confirm that point and Mladen Ninkov, the chairman, was in New York and does not give out his mobile number. Surely all old feuds in Australia are dead and buried.

The feasibility study was completed back in September 2003 and this confirmed that the project would be robust even if the zinc price was well below US$900/tonne. In fact it is now sitting at US$1,225/tonne so not many worries on that score. The leverage to the zinc price is an interesting one as the cumulative after tax cash flow, post capital repayment, rises from US$67.2 million at a US$900/tonne zinc price to US$104.4 million at US$1,100/tonne, and onwards and upwards to over US$120 million at the current price. Another point worth noting is that the feasibility study applied only to zone 111 at Caijiaying which is a small 1.5 sq kms part of the overall package of 67 sq kms so there is still plenty of potential.

The 60:40 joint venture with Griffins Chinese partners is unique in that Griffin receives 100 per cent of the net cash flows arising from the first 3 years of production at the mine. After three years, of course, the net cash flows will revert back to reflect the 60/40 ownership structure, but in the meantime Griffin will be cash positive from day one as it did not have to take on any development loans. Banks being banks they took so long to make any decision about this first western project in China that Griffin went out and raised the money through brokers Ocean Equities.

The company has just announced that further systematic underground stope -definition drilling has identified new zones of high grade zinc ore which were not included in the original feasibility study ore reserve. These will clearly add further value to the project and resulted from the need to define ore which would be mined first. The drafting of the announcement is a bit confusing, but it appears that it is the Fu Long Lode that was missing from the ore reserve above the 1400 level and this has been divided into three parts, North Upper, Central Upper and South Upper. Just to give a flavour, there was a 10.15 metre intersection in the Central Upper Fu Long Lode which graded 16.65% zinc and 83.6 g/t silver; in the North Upper Griffin intersected 10.48 metres grading 18% zinc and 56.47 g/t silver; and in the South Upper 12.98 metres grading a more modest 8.74% zinc and 7.14 g/t silver.

Stope development has started ahead of schedule and full production from the Fu Long lodes will be possible once the main mine decline links up with the 1400 level as it is expected to do shortly. In the meantime a second lode system, Jin Long, has been accessed for development by a sub-incline from the 1400 level and drilling is taking place on a third lode. As far as the recovery plant is concerned everything is in place bar the gold process equipment expected at the end of this month, and the main power line supply has been contracted. The Griffin team has been working closely with the Chinese engineering institute ENFI and Chinese expertise in designing and installing their own equipment has been used to the full.

Surplus cash flow from the mine will be used on exploration and IP surveys have been conducted within the original exploration and mining licence areas, but away from the mine itself. Then there is another JV with the same Chinese partners over a surrounding area which contains two large epithermal areas of alteration containing known gold and silver occurrences . A ground aeromagnetic survey has been carried out to define targets for drilling this summer. Its been a tough ride for the company, but the end of the beginning is now in sight.

A good post aldwickk (#22 - read it if you haven't already). Very encouraging news. I am of the opinion that Griffin are now well placed to receive further mining contracts in China after demonstrating a good working relationship and coming in ahead of time and under budget.

A very key point in your post (and one that should not be underestimated) is the fact that Griffin raised the development money without the aid of the banks and therefore will be

*** CASH POSITIVE FROM DAY ONE. ***

(Apologies for 'shouting' but this is extremely good news, imo).

Great stuff. Go Griffin. :>)

Hey feel free to shout from the roof-tops Prince Froggie
this one looks a goodie!!! :>)

Are you saying the others are crooks LOL

LOL aldwickk!
:>)

Nice show of interest this morning and moving into blue. Got on board at 29.25p so initial costs already covered

Got a bit worried a couple of days back when there seemed to be
some profit taking going on by the drop in the price - don't
you just hate it when people jump the gun, they could wait for
a really decent rise first before pulling their cash out.

Agreed Stockbunny - they could at least have the manners to wait for our OK !!
Got into BED (pun intended) just recently doing very nicely until greed struck to-day. May buy more now as came out well on Working Lunch recently.

This was fetured in S/tele on there tips page today saying 'Was fetured in 2002
The No of shares sold in 2002@13.5p & was still testing deposits & again @ 25p
in may 2004when it started to build the 'Mine'near cap of China since then traded in a narrow band but the opening of the mine Shares should begin to motor
Per tax profit should be$7.7m this year & 28m in 2006 Comments are to 'Buy'

Are those figures current? I thought I read those projections from some time ago, since when the company has upgraded its finds and the zinc price has improved. Of extra interest are the drilling results expected in the next two months on new areas and those to see if existing finds are continuous between areas plus the results of the gold assay which is due soon. Unless you are a geologist understanding their last press release is not easy.

Up 5% today so far and just under 2M shares traded.
:>)

Now over 3M traded and up 7%
:>)

Hi' Bunny,

This is my 2nd largest holding, news of mine production startup should be soon.

They were saying in Spring previously, just curious as
to why the sudden rise today? Oh well wont compain!!
:>)

Bid rumours , or as the price of zinc gone up ?

I'll check the zinc price..

Having trouble doing so - not listed at my usual source
website for commodity prices and not getting free access
elsewhere to check! :>(

Hiya...On a spending spree today...spending some profits :-)PDX and some NOP just bought some Griffin shares which makes 3 mines I have interest in . KMR, NML and now Griffin. They all look great punts and all in different areas with different stuff to mine. Griffin looks as though it could go sky high very soon. Well done for spotting this sooner than me or and for having the money available to get in of course.
Di

To small, try again.

Zinc stocks falling , price raising.

Well tracked down aldwickk - where did you find it?
Looks like you are right in your thoughts - may the zinc
price continue to rise!! :>)

I found it on AOL images of all places, some interesting images on there, LOL

if things go well there could be some interesting images in my bank account, never seen before, just dreams and plans.....

watcher

Interesting morning so far. Up another 1.25p and it's only 8.10...bought some more as I don't think we will see this price again.
Di

looking good guys, have been watching this one too long, time to buy now, plenty of upside from here i reckon.

Well done Aldwick . How do you paste in photos? Do you copy and paste and that's it?

Dynamite,

What you do is click on properties then copy and paste the URL address and insert it into the image link , click and it will show up on your post then just post reply.

Thanks Aldwick

'The Business', 27th. February 2005.

Valued at 64m. Griffin Mining is tiny by international standards but has ventured where mining giants fear to tread. The company has built the first foreign owned and operated mine in China in 100 years, an exercise only possible due to new mining laws six years ago.
Griffin's main project is the Caijiaying zinc-gold mine in Hebei province ,125 miles from Beijing. The company has a 60% stake in the venture, with local interests owning the rest. Under an agreement Griffin will be allowed to take all of the cash generated by the mine in the first three years. The company's share of the bargain is to invest up to 11m. in the development, which should be commissioned in April. The mine will then begin processing 200,000 tons of ore a year to produce 23,000 tons of zinc, gold and associated metals for at least 14 years.
The resource at Caijiaying haas been estimated at up to 23m tons of zinc and up to 2.6m. tons of gold (I THINK THEY GOT THE FIGURES WRONG HERE, BUT I WISH THEY WERE TRUE) by independent consultants. The political risk of operating in China is hard to guage, but unlike Russia, China is relying heavily on outside backing. This strengthens the position of companies such as Griffin with sound legal title and Chinese partners.
Metal prices have been rising. Investors might ask how long this can go on. In the case of zinc the answer is some time. The metal has a wide number of uses, including the galvanising of steel and demand has been rising for thirty years. Zinc is trading on the L.M.E. at more than $1200 a ton. But this is nowhere near it's high. The metal has seen two big peaks- in 1974 at around $1800 and again in 1989 at around $2000. In real terms that 1974 price equals more than $3600, three times the current market price.
In the long term the economics of mining zinc are complicated by the threat that a price surge will increase metal output and by the interdependence on the prices of lead and silver, with which it is often mined.
With the main goal acheived and cash coming in, the management can begin looking more closely at the gold prospects within Griffin's existing licences and at the potential partnerships brought to the business. This raises the possibility that the company will attract another sizeable mining project elsewhere in the country within the year.
Griffin's shares have risen strongly since September 2004, almost doubling in value, but with strength in the mining sector there could be much more to go for. Speculative buy.

We're moving up!
:>)
Keep that prayer going!!

Suffering profit taking today :>(

I don't like to see a bunny suffering.

So have some carrots.

much thanks Aldwickk!
(munch - munch)
Spaghetti is on the menu in the coffee house if you feel like
a little light lunch :>)

SHARE WHISPER: GRIFFIN MINING (gossips say Canadian firm Ivanhoe could be lining up an approach north of 50p a share

aldwickk

From today's Express:

"GRIFFIN MINING (gossips say Canadian firm Ivanhoe could be lining up an approach north of 50 pence a share)"

Hmmm well that should move the price the right way for a while anyway
even if it's a load of rubbish and comes to nothing!
I wondered why it had regained yesterday's loss so fast! LOL

Well that was brief..is the rumour over now?
LOL - hopefully we can rebound again later!
;>)

A lot of buys being shown as sells.
Can currently buy below mid price @ 36.25p

This is similar to yesterdays trades, as well.
Could buy @ 36.43p yesterday @ 36.5p mid.

We'll have to see how things progress.
:>)

Should end the day at 40p.

Interesting thought - haven't checked stockwatch for a while
so out of touch with current price, is that wistful thinking
or is it going well aldwickk?

Hmm just checked, maybe not today aldwickk but it's still
going along well!

A post from the other side;

Thoughts on Caijiaying project in China...

Politically stable country
Very low security risk
Very low labour costs
Very low tax bands (see accounts)

Zinc/Gold products in demand locally and globally
Improved product prices since feasibility report Sept03
Site preparation begins Oct03
Photographs at GFM website confirm construction progress
Mine commission starts very soon, spring 2005

Project fully financed
Most recent placing Feb04 c9m @ 25p
3-stage incentive for directors 9.5m options priced 30p
$20m cash ending June, $16m for mine
3yr 100% cashflow = incentive for high productivity

Phase I (zone III) planned 200K tonnes ore/annum increasing to 500K
200K ore yields 22K zinc metal + gold for free
500koz Gold in Zone III alone, planned for phase I
Further underground drilling expected to enhance resources

Hebei Hua-Ao (trading subsidiary) is forecasted to be
4th biggest zinc producer in China (based on 22K tonne zinc)

No debts
No forward contracts
Future exploration funds expected from organic growth

Plenty of scope for further exploration success

Gold zones within zone III
Prove up additional gold blocks to be mined (not in original plan)
Proving wider zinc lodes III
Pre-production mining underground (to increase throughput asap)
Surrounding Prospects
Primarily zone V for Gold, Zone II awaits info between II and III
Between Zones III and II
Indications of connecting system
Re-evaluate original license area
Use acquired knowledge (historical data and new targets)
Regional Epithermal gold exploration
For additional separate projects

Announcements due in 2005: expected news from zone II/III drilling and Geo-physical survey over the regional exploration licence area.

"The Company believes that with the commissioning of the first, majority foreign
owned mine in the PRC at Caijiaying, the possibility exists for other world class
projects to be offered to Griffin by various arms of the PRCs local, provincial
and central governments for development, modernisation and operation.

The commissioning of Caijiaying lays the foundation not only for Griffin to become
a profitable mining company, but also gives it the potential to further expand its
influence in the mining sector of the worlds largest mineral producer"

Cheers Dynamite for posting that, good news!
:>)

What's this about:

RAB CAPITAL secretly sells its stake of almost 15 pct in GRIFFIN MINING without formally notifying the company - Sunday Telegraph

Are they allowed to do that?

Griffin are registered in Bermuda according to posts on ADVFN and don't come under UK rules?

I hold but my reservation on Griffin is it's 'one horse' nature i.e. total reliance on one mine - if a major gearbox or bearing goes or there is any other major fault in the mine or at the preperation mill which delays start up (and if a fault is going to happen the first few months are the most likely times) then the price will plummet. Saying that I believe the risk is built into the price.

The SP will not plummet!.
Delays in mining are expected.
The fact that the project is currently on time and budget
is a testament to the quality of the management.

The SP will not plummet!.

I'm afraid it will if there is an announced delay to production. Why do you think it wouldn't?

Delays in mining are expected.

Not by the retail investors that have been rammped into this share, I'm afraid that they would panic and the market would fleece them.

Anyway, let's hope (for both our sakes) that nothing untoward occours and we both make lots of money ;-)

Count me in too please guys!
:>)

Looking good :-)

Griffin Mining Ld
05 April 2005



GRIFFIN MINING LIMITED

5th APRIL 2005

GRIFFIN ANNOUNCES 'DRY COMMISSIONING' DATE FOR CAIJIAYING OF 25TH APRIL 2005


Griffin Mining Limited ('Griffin or the 'Company') is extremely pleased to
announce that its Chinese design and engineering consultants and construction
managers for the Caijiaying mine and processing plant, the Beijing Engineering
Non-Ferrous Institute ('ENFI'), have confirmed that, subject to the delivery and
installation of a small number of remaining components, the planned date of dry
commissioning of the Caijiaying plant will be Monday, the 25th of April, 2005.
This is on schedule and within the planned ENFI budget.


Assuming dry commissioning encounters no installation or manufacturing defects,
production should commence immediately after the curing of the main plant floor
on the 15th of May 2005. In anticipation of commissioning, zinc ore has already
been mined and stockpiled at the surface ready for processing.


Mladen Ninkov, Griffin's Chairman, commented on these developments as follows:


'Rarely does a dream become reality. Caijiaying remains on track to be
commissioned on time and on budget in an extremely strong zinc metal market. It
is a just reward for the courage, patience and support the shareholders have
shown for the Company. I could not be more delighted.'



Further information

Mladen Ninkov - Chairman Telephone: +44(0) 20 7629 7772
Roger Goodwin - Finance Director
Griffin Mining Limited


Philip Davies Telephone: +44(0) 20 7953 2000
Charles Stanley & Company Limited



Hugo de Salis Telephone: +44(0) 20 7242 4477
St Brides Media & Finance Ltd





Griffin Mining Limited's shares are quoted on the Alternative Investment Market
(AIM) of the London Stock Exchange (symbol GFM).

Further information on Griffin Mining Ltd is available on the Company's web
site:
www.griffinmining.com



This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

Great news!!!

Good timing, start of new tax year for investers.

That's tomorrow Aldwick...today is the last day:-)

Better still, more buyers tomorrow. Dia, you be please to know that i bought a few NML yesterday.

Well done Aldwick...you will be pleased to know I bought some more GFM yesterday as well ;-)All 3 of my mines are set to make a fortune..NML, GFM and KMR Yay!!!!

I'll order a bottle of champers then shall I chaps!
:>)

bought in to griffin mining @4 pence, Should i stick with them?, or sell and run

Did you say 4p, when was that 15 years ago. Why sell now, see what the price is when the mine is producing cash flow.

An interesting post from the other side this morning :

Minews Story
Date: April 07, 2005

Griffin Mining Takes Blue Riband As First Western Mining Company To Develop A New Mine In China.

The race to be the first western company with a producing mine in China was won by Sino Gold a year or two back, but it took over an existing mine. Griffin Mining deserves the blue riband as it is clearly going to be the first to bring a project right the way through from exploration to production and it will be followed closely by Afcan Mining. The latest news from Griffin is that its Chinese design and engineering consultants and construction managers for the Caijiaying mine and processing plant, the Beijing Engineering Non-Ferrous Institute, have confirmed that, subject to the delivery and installation of a small number of remaining components, the planned date of dry commissioning of the Caijiaying plant will be Monday, the 25th of April, 2005. This is on schedule and within the planned ENFI budget.

It is worth noting that an actual date is given, as this is unusual. Most companies tend to be more vague with comments like at the beginning of the second quarter. The Beijing Engineering Non-Ferrous Institute must be utterly confident in this prediction as the loss of face if there was any delay would be huge. Roger Goodwin, finance director of Griffin, confirms that the last components are actually on site, so there is no real chance of a hitch. Nevertheless, as if to compound the risk another date is given - 15 May 2005 - by which time actual production should start immediately after the curing of the main plant floor, assuming dry commissioning encounters no installation or manufacturing defects. In anticipation of commissioning, zinc ore has already been mined and stockpiled at the surface ready for processing.

The timing could not be better given the strong zinc market In mid March the price hit a 7 year high of US 64.8 cents/lb, but then backed off to US$0.59.6/lb at the end of the month March 30. The rapid run-up in price of 13 per cent this year reflects speculation that inventories will fall further as supply shortfall takes effect. On March 31 LME zinc inventories were down to 574,000 tonnes compared with peaks of 785,000 tonnes in April 2004 and there is now 500,000 tonne supply gap between mine supply and demand with supply declining since peaking in first half 2002 when several new large mines were brought into production. At the same time zinc demand grew at 8.9 per cent between August 2004 to January 2005 with China alone contributing 7 per cent as a result of its 28 per cent increase in zinc consumption in 2004.

The feasibility study back September 2003 was based on an initial throughput of 200,000 tonnes per annum to produce 314,250 tonnes of zinc metal and 108,450 kgs of silver in 586,300 tonnes of concentrates grading 53.6% zinc and 185 g/t silver over the life of the mine. In addition, 39,850 ounces of gold will be produced in bullion. The plan now is to increase throughput up to 500,000 tonnes/year as quickly as possible in order to take advantage of the fact that Griffin receives 100 per cent of the net cash flows arising from the first 3 years of production at the mine and no tax is levied for the first two years. After three years, of course, the net cash flows will revert back to reflect the 60/40 ownership structure, but in the meantime Griffin will be cash positive from day one as it did not have to take on any development loans.

This feasibility study confirmed that the project would be robust even if the zinc price was well below US$900/tonne. In fact it is now sitting at US$1,325/tonne so not many worries on that score. The leverage to the zinc price is an interesting one as the cumulative after tax cash flow, post capital repayment, rises from US$67.2 million at a US$900/tonne zinc price to US$104.4 million at US$1,100/tonne, and onwards and upwards to over US$140 million at the current price. The development work is being carried out by Chinese contractors and virtually all the equipment is sourced from Chinese suppliers. As a result costs are being contained and this is a major point as if bank finance had been sought the company would have been instructed to use western gear and western contractors. A stipulation would also have been placed on the pricing of sales contracts and hedging programmes might have been demanded for silver and gold production.

Another point worth noting is that the feasibility study applied only to zone 111 at Caijiaying which is a small 1.5 sq kms part of the overall package of 67 sq kms so there is still plenty of potential for expansion and exploration results are very encouraging. Earlier this year Griffin also announced that further systematic underground stope -definition drilling has identified new zones of high grade zinc ore which were not included in the original feasibility study ore reserve.

An interesting note, Dynamite. All very encouraging news.

I'm particularly excited about their ability to extract zinc from the ore at an efficiency far greater than 100%. Not sure how they do that. A few other miners might be interested. ;-)

"...based on an initial throughput of 200,000 tonnes per annum to produce 314,250 tonnes of zinc metal..."

LOL

I see what you mean Starfrog... I hadn't noticed that 200K tonnes to produce 314,250 tonnes of zinc metal plus silver etc. I will look into it.
There must be other references.
Di

I just think they're magic, Dynamite. LOL

Well Griffin are magic but not sure about the figures! LOL

Rising nicely today!
:>)

Interesting article..tks.

Totally OT, guys and gals, but does anyone have any thoughts on SFU? Have restarted the last known thread as it's just come on my radar screen. Take a look at the recent news releases and see what you think. Any comments more than appreciated.

New photo's 5th april on they web site.

Have I missed the point - not much going out in wages by the looks of things !!
This one will come good "my little china"

Oakapples...the point is that Griffin are on time and getting all the equipment in place on time and they are jolly good at keeping the shareholder informed.

Thanks Dynamite good point which I missed - had a very late night watching the "Masters"

Thought...
Wages and overheads paid in the Chinese currency - it's name escapes me!
Rates of pay much lower then in other parts of the world also.

All produce from mine priced in US Dollars....
Chinese currency is 'pegged' against the dollar so not influenced by
market swings which the dollar is.....

So potentially - costs (overheads/wages etc) steady and low, whilst
commodities produced can rise in 'on paper value' (ok they can fall too)
and the worth of the company in terms of its assets (mine production)
can rise in worth without incurring higher costs necessarily,
due to not having as much exposure to the same volatility as other producers elsewhere...

Possibly not making my point very clearly - hey it's monday! - but does
anyone follow my somewhat confusing drift?
I think there could be more upside to this then down.
:>)

Stockbunny - you are not just a pretty face with a nice tail

Oak I thank you but truth is I'm also extremely bad as times at
transferring 'the thought process' to a legible statement! LOL
But I'm glad you could make out the idea amid the waffle!
;>)

Check out eureka mining thread 10x by christmas!

Stockbunny - it's the remninbi (or yuan if you like it simple - yuan it simple, you got it!)

Remninbi is kept artificially low by Chinese gov against US$, so China can export manufactured goods to US. Also, therefore, US$ is high to remninbi, so Zinc sold in US$ makes lots of remninbis.

BUT, most of the mine's production will be used by China, won't it - that's where the demand is and China will not export it only to reimport from elsewhere.

So China has to pay low priced remninbi converted to high priced US$ to buy its own Zinc. The Chinese get no cost advantage.

BUT, GFM make lots of US$ which it has to convert to UK at only about 53p per dollar.

So the net effect of the currency, I believe, is that the profits for shareholders are vulnerable to a weak US$ - just like oil and gold.

However, the chart looks jolly good (who was it got in at 4p!) What was the old up and under in March all about? Even so the steep upward channel from the low at the end of August remains intact. It's gotta go to 50p, hasn't it, on successful commencement of the first smelt (as I beleive it is called in Zinc circles)?

I'm only here 'cos Di taunted me on the SEO thread.

Got no dosh, got no shares.
I'm just a dog that's putting on airs.

woof woof

SD

Well SD in amongst your doggy portfolio you must have a dog or two...You sell a dog and buy GFM and I will sell a dog and buy SEO and we will see which one does better. Woof Woof.

Di :-))))))

Di

Not a bad challenge - let me look at the back of the kennel to see if I can find one!

SD

I too, have had a couple of dogs in the past.
Didn't realise till the morning!

Ahh poor Stock-Doggie, hope your portfolio gets good soon :>)
We all have less then respectable canine holdings in our
portfolios at some time - put it down to experience and look
for your next opportunity!
:>)

F Poor...does this mean you have sold a dog too and bought into GFM or SEO????

Di,
I have quite a number of GFM, and will purchase more
on any weakness.
No dogs to sell, but funds ready and waiting for an opportunity.

Dog to Bunny - whaddaruonabaht? I think you must have meant to address that remark to FP (but I'm not sure if he was referring to his private life or his portfolio - we all make mistakes, don't I know it!)

I've had a good look, and I'm afraid there is nothing in my hutch I want to sell enough to take up Di's challenge (temporary apologies, Di), so I am organising a little more free capital from elsewhere so I can play the game, by which time I may even have DMOR on this stock before plunging in blind for fun. ( BTW the last time I got blind for fun, I can tell you . . . well, perhaps not on a family thread. )

SD

Oh then stockdog that clears that one up then.
I'll take my tea and sympathy elsewhere then.......
(hops slowly away...............)
;>)

SD... that's the point....Dogs are the ones you don't want to sell cos' you really should have sold them before they went down....but one day tehy could do a DDD so you can make it back and get out quick ;-). Plus of course DYOR...cos' its no good coming moaning to me that you only made double your money on GFM instead of 10 times hehe....woof woof
Di

Di, Last year I saw GFM tipped as potential takeover target for big players with 50p tipped. I had no spare cash and was having a nightmare at the time but saw it fall from 30p to 16p due to Berlin stockmarket shorters? Am I correct?
Anyway, with that out of the way, what are your projections for GFM as mining company based upon their own business and no outside TO speculation?
Appreciate your thoughts as Mining is not my area of expertise at all.

This stock seems t be very quiet given the intersting events that should unfold in the next 8 weeks.
When brokers Charles Stanley last issued their Research doc. zinc was at 1100$/ton. It is now 1240$/ton. Not an enormous increase but one which translates to the bottom line in a more significant way beause virtually all of the extra selling price is profit. On that basis their projected earnings/share for this year ought to rise from 4.35m$ to 5.07m$ this year, and from 16.26m$ to 19.01m$ in 2006, provided zinc stays at at least 1240$/ton.
Other events which should help in taking the company into the next level is the increased drilling activity, not just for establishing with greater certaity that there is a lot more zinc (they've only explored 1.5sq.kms out of the 68sq.kms. total covered by their licence)but also the further drilling for gold in the increasingly promising area to the south of the zinc mine.
All of this should be covered in more detail when the Report & Accs. are issued in May and at the London based AGM in June.
Also of interest is the sale of 15% of the company's stock by a hedge fund to an unknown purchaser (all done off-shore). The share price did not dip as a result.

A gremlin crept in to yesterday's posting.

Using the only broker research I have ever seen on GFM, updating it for today's zinc price of 1300$/tonne and a dollar exchange rate of 1.92$/.

Earnings/share could be extrapolated as follows:

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

3.23p 12.1p 10.83p 6.27p 6.27p
The drop in late 2007 onwards reflects the cutting in of the profit sharing deal with the Chinese.

Given the above what PE should GFM sell at? It still has the appeal of an explorer in a highly attractive licence area, the solidity of a producer as of May 2005 and the track record/relationship with the Chinese authorities. Surely the current price of GFM at 32p undervalues this company.
Would welcome anyone else's views on this one.

Good positive letter in Shares Mag

Saw that. I agree with the comments. GFM seems to be being ignored by the mag for some reason. It wouldn't have happened under the previous editor, Ross Greenwood!
Re my earlier post, is a PE of 20 asking too much?

Haven't they confirmed 500,000ounces of gold in zone 111 also?
You would need to add that to future projections/valuation i'd imagine.....

That sounds a bit on the wild side. They have found in the immediate mine area 6.68m tonnes zinc ore grading at 8.69% plus gold at 0.5gm/tonne. The gold was included in earlier projections for revenue and EPS. It could be that higher concentrates may be around in the area about to be prospected to the south; the company seem to think that it gets better the further south in the permit area that they look.
Just on what has been announced the company should be worth much more than the share price currently indicates in my opinion.

This board is a good way of attracting the interest of Shares Magazine. Perhaps what is needed is support from them knowing that the Company have everything in place to see SP reach a more realistic figure. My crystal ball tells me 50p by end of May

Nice price rise today - shame about the spread!

Last year shares mag did a piece on their top ten mining tips for success and
GFM were one of them so i'm surprised they haven't followed them a bit more?

dibbles,

Interesting you should say that because recently they published a letter from a reader saying the very same thing!

I have to admit it's strange they haven't followed through on such a sucessful tip!

I think their then mining expert left to join a broker and the replacement, (if they have one!) is in the 'not invented here' camp so is trying to look at new stocks. Editor's comment on that letter seemed to imply no criticism was accepted.
More to the point at least the shares rose yesterday. Does anyone have a view on my question I posted the other day when I reforecast what I think the EPS is with the current zinc price? Looking at PE's for explorers, producers and almost any other company in the metals business points to GFM being undervalued by a considerable margin.

Sharesure,

Now that sounds very feasible IMO.

Shame that he would avoid a good stock just because it was picked by his predecessor though.

Next week I would think the company will produce a statement to confirm that the works have been completed and that production from the ore they have stockpiled will commence on schedule in May. Friday's 2p rise: either a response to activity on this BB? or possibly a Sunday paper will give them a mention as they are now on the point of becoming revenue producing.

According to another bb GFM have a small write-up in one of todays rags
stating that the Chinese gov. have extended our 3 year exploration licence
to 15 years....

Dibb,
Thanks for that news.

Here is the articel mentioned in post 131 above

CHINESE gold miner Afcan will announce tomorrow that it is to join the Alternative Investment Market in a placing arranged by broker Seymour Pierce.


The company, which already has a Toronto Stock Exchange listing, is raising at least 11.6m to fund development of a major opencast gold mine in Qinghai, one of China's most remote provinces.


Chief executive David Netherway said the Tanjianshan mine had proven resources of about a million ounces, with mining due to start this year. 'The Chinese market will soak up everything that can be produced,' he said.


Afcan is partnered with the Qinghai provincial government and as a result the mine will benefit from new roads and power lines being built to the site.


Aim-listed Griffin Mining is expected to announce that the government of China has extended its licence to mine zinc and gold from three years to 15. Griffin's mine, 125 miles from Beijing, is to start operating within the next two weeks.


Shares in Griffin rose a penny last week to close at 34p, valuing the whole group at just over 60m.


VERY POSITIVE !!

Pumben
Which paper was that in? I understood GFM already had rights running well into the future (beyond 12 years at least). Could the paper have been confused with the possibility that the Chinese have been asked, and now maybe have, extended their licence area to cover more than the 68sq. kms. they have been drilling in. Can you cut and paste the article on here?

The article was in the Sunday Mail today

And they were right! Extended to 2020, combined with the mine opening/commission, we should have 'lift off'!

Just seen the RNS. Good news. There are more opportunities for the newsflow to continue because I had heard that the licence extension area is also being considered by the Chinese.

Please see Griffin website on Minesite it gives the press release stating the licence has been continued untill 2020for a futher 15yrs>has only been released today.

Griffin Mining Ld
26 April 2005

26th APRIL 2005


GRIFFIN ANNOUNCES START OF 'DRY COMMISSIONING' ON SCHEDULE AT THE CAIJIAYING
MINE, CHINA

Griffin Mining Limited ('Griffin or the 'Company') is extremely pleased to
announce that pursuant to the announcement made by the Company on 5th April
2005, dry commissioning of the Caijiaying plant has now commenced on schedule.

Further information

Mladen Ninkov - Chairman Telephone: +44(0) 20 7629 7772
Roger Goodwin - Finance Director
Griffin Mining Limited

Philip Davies Telephone: +44(0) 20 7953 2000
Charles Stanley & Company Limited

Hugo de Salis Telephone: +44(0) 20 7242 4477
St Brides Media & Finance Ltd

Griffin Mining Limited's shares are quoted on the Alternative Investment Market
(AIM) of the London Stock Exchange (symbol GFM).

Further information on Griffin Mining Ltd is available on the Company's web
site:
www.griffinmining.com