Martini
- 30 May 2004 11:37
 |
Calendar: United
Kingdom |
 |
United States |
 |
Europe & World |
Interims
RWS : RWS Holdings
SEG : SCi Entertainment Group
SYN : SynstarFinals
DGG : Domestic & General Group
ECK : Eckoh Technologies
RYA : Ryanair Holdings PLC AGM/EGM
IHG : InterContinental Hotels Group Economic
UK May CIPS manufacturing report (08:30 BST)
UK CBI quarterly distributive trades survey (10:00 BST) |
Company
Pall Corp. Q3Economic
pm BST Auto Sales for May expected 5.2M
pm BST Truck Sales for May expected 7.8M
15:00 pm BST Construction Spending for Apr expected 1.50%
15:00 pm BST ISM Index for May expected 62.4 |
Economic
00.50 BST - JAP Average Lending Rate APR na na +1.546%
02.30 BST - JAP Labour Cash Earnings y/y APR
08.45 BST - ITA Manufacturing PMI MAY prev +52.5
08.50 BST - FRA Manufacturing PMI prev +53.5
08.55 BST - GER Manufacturing PMI prev +55.3
09.00 BST - EMU Manufacturing PMI prev +54.0
10.00 BST - EMU GDP q/q Q1 BRUSSELS EU Commission to
publish Q2 and Q3 GDP growth forecasts |
Note to Traders - Shares going ex
dividend tomorrow 2nd June
(ABU) Abacus Group 3.50, (AGS) Aegis Grp. 0.80, (AIG) 6.50, (AN26) 45.00, (ARD) Austin Reed 5.50, (ARR) Aurora Inv.Tst. 2.85, (AXN) Alexon Grp. 5.17, (BOS) Body Shop 3.80, (BRAM) Brammer 3.00, (BWY) Bellway 9.30, (BYG) Big Yellow Grp 1.05, (CKN) Clarkson 10.50, (CNT) Connaught 2.80, (COB) Cobham 19.80, (CRDA) Croda Intl. 7.83.(CTG) Christie Grp. 2.00, (DEL) Deut.Lat.AM.Tst 0.70, (DSC) Dev.Secs. 3.60, (EDIN) Edin.Inv.Tst. 8.95, (ETI) Ent.Inns 2.60, (EUP) Eurocopy 0.55, (FDL) Findel 11.40, (GLE) Gleeson (MJ) 7.02,(GNC) Greencore Grp. 5.05, (GPOR) GR.Portland 7.00, (GTG) Get Grp. 2.85, (HVE) Havelock Europa 2.10, (ISU) Ivory&Sime SM. 3.00, (ITRK) Intertek Group 5.90, (IVS) Inveresk 0.25, (JCKS) Jacks(WM) 2.50, (JGIZ) Jpmor.FL.I&G In 2.25, (LMR) Luminar 8.87, (MAL) Malcolm Group 3.30, (MER) Mears Group 1.00, (MKS) Marks & SP. 7.10, (MLG) Maclellan GP. 0.75, (MLRI) Merrill L.Inc 2.06, (MNZS) Menzies(J) 12.60, (MOSB) Moss Bros. 1.00, (MSLH) Marshalls 7.35, (NBP) Narboro.Plnt 0.36, (NGT) National Grid 11.87, (PAQ) Prop.Acq.Mang 2.00, (PNB) Pubs'n'bars 1.25, (PTY) Parity 0.03, (RDM) Radamec Group 2.00, (RM.) Rm 1.00, (SCR) Securicor 0.86, (SCS) Schroder Split 1.40, (SDX) Sondex 1.20, (SHB) Shaftesbury 1.51, (SLNG) Slingsby H.C 30.00, (SPW) Scot.Power 6.25, (SRH) Scot.Radio 7.00, (SSW) Sth. Staff. 34.40, (SUS) S & U 21.00, (TCSC) Town Centre 1.80, (TON) Titon Hldgs. 2.30, (TPT) Topps Tiles 2.00, (VOD) Vodafone Grp. 1.08, (WBY) Westbury 9.55, (WOLV) Wolver.Dud. 12.00, (WPP) Wpp Grp. 4.40, (YULC) Yule Catto 7.70, |
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Martini
- 30 May 2004 11:38
- 3 of 39
 |
United
Kingdom - Calendar: 31st May - 4th June |
 |
United States
(GMT) |
 |
Europe &
World (GMT) |
Bank Holiday
|
Chicago PMI |
|
Interims
RWS : RWS Holdings, SEG : SCi Entertainment Group, SYN :
Synstar, Finals
DGG : Domestic & General Group, ECK : Eckoh
Technologies, RYA : Ryanair Holdings PLC, AGM
IHG : InterContinental Hotels Group Economic
UK May CIPS manufacturing report (0830 GMT)
UK CBI quarterly distributive trades survey (1000 GMT) |
Auto Sales
Truck Sales
GMT Construction Spending
GMT ISM Index |
|
Interims
CBF : Cobra Bio-Manufacturing Finals
AWG : AWG, CW. : Cable & Wireless, EXR : Expro
International Group, NFDS : Northern Foods , PEA :
Peacock Group (The) PLC , UMC : UMECO , VLX : Volex
Group, AGM
SUN : Surgical Innovations Group Economic
UK April consumer credit (0830 GMT)
UK April final M4/M4 lending (0830 GMT)
UK May CIPS construction report (0830 GMT) |
|
|
Interim Ex
Dividend:
BWY : Bellway - 9.3(p), GLE : Gleeson (M.J.) Group -
7.02(p), NBP : Narborough Plantations - 0.36(p) , SCR :
Securicor - 0.86(p), TCSC : Town Centre Securities -
1.8(p), TON : Titon Holdings - 2.3(p), Final Ex Dividend:
AGS : Aegis Group - 0.8(p), ARD : Austin Reed Group -
5.5(p), AXN : Alexon Group - 5.17(p), BOS : Body Shop
International - 3.8(p), BRAM : Brammer - 3(p), BXTN :
Brixton - 7.25(p), BYG : Big Yellow - 1.05(p), CKN :
Clarkson - 10.5(p), COB : Cobham - 19.8(p), CRDA : Croda
International - 7.83(p), CTG : Christie Group - 2(p), DSC
: Development Securities - 3.6(p), HHO : Highbury House
Communications - 0.49(p), HVE : Havelock Europa - 2.1(p),
ISU : Ivory & Sime UK Smaller Co's - 3(p), ITRK :
Intertek Group - 5.9(p), IVS : Inveresk - 0.25(p), JCKS :
Jacks(William) - 2.5(p), MAL : Malcolm Group (The) PLC -
3.3(p), MLG : Maclellan Group - 0.75(p), MNZS :
Menzies(John) - 12.6(p), MOSB : Moss Bros Group - 1(p),
MSLH : Marshalls - 7.35(p), PNB : Pubs 'N' Bars -
1.25(p), PTY : Parity Group - 0.03(p), SLNG :
Slingsby(H.C) - 30(p), SUS : S & U - 21(p), TLT :
Tolent - 2.75(p), WBY : Westbury - 9.55(p), WPP : WPP
Group - 4.4(p), |
Interims
DMGT : Daily Mail and General Trust PLC Finals
ALT : Applied Optical Technologies, CPW : Carphone
Warehouse, ESH : East Surrey Holdings , FKI : FKI, GNS :
Genus, JMAT : Johnson Matthey PLC, JMAT : Johnson Matthey
, OXIG : Oxford Instruments PLC, PCF : Private &
Commercial Finance Group, SDY : Speedy Hire , WAGN :
Wagon, AGM
AAP : Alpha Airports Group, AZM : Alizyme, CRX :
Cyprotex, CSTL : Collins Stewart Tullett, KGF :
Kingfisher, TFG : Taylor & Francis Group, Economic
UK May CIPS services report (0830 GMT)
UK BRC May shop price index (around 0930 GMT) |
Initial Claims
Productivity-Rev.
Factory Orders
ISM Services |
|
Interims
None announced Finals
None announced AGM
SFR : Severfield-Rowen
SMG : SMG Economic
UK Deloitte/REC reprt on jobs (0930 GMT) |
Average Workweek
Hourly Earnings
Nonfarm Payrolls
Unemployment Rate |
|
Trading
Thoughts For The Week Ahead - Sunday 30th
May |
This week
guest 'Diarist' and 'Thoughter' David Jones aka
Limpsfield Chartist has kindly stepped into the
breach. If anyone else would like to be the guest
'Thoughter' next week please let me know. Tuesday
Ryanair results on Tuesday should be
interesting reading not so much for the
numbers but how they see the state of the
industry at the moment. EasyJets share
price got hammered in early May as it adjusted
its guidance for the full year to
cautious due to the
increasingly competitive market place
caused by unprofitable and unrealistic
pricing by airlinesWednesday
Cable & Wireless are due to announce full
year figures on Wednesday - its third quarter
trading statement announced at the end of January
showed that revenues came in at 854 million,
slightly down from the previous quarters
879 million. The share price has suffered since
and the market will be watching to see if it can
reverse this trend.Peacock reckons it will be on target for
market expectations when it reveals its full year
results. Despite a slightly weak fourth quarter,
expect pre tax profit to come in around the 35
million mark. AWG results should not hold any surprises
but they may chose to expand on how the recently
announced massive price hikes to water customers
in the years ahead will help their bottom line. Thursday
Carphone Warehouse was bullish back in April
and this week will see if that is borne out. The
company has said that it expects to report pre
tax profit at the top end of market expectations,
and it reckons its earning per share will beat
the range expected by the market.Johnson Matthey is expected to shrug off
currency fluctuations and deliver results in line
with market expectations. The company took over
the AMC group of companies at the end of March
for $43 million but it is probably too early for
this to make an impact. Friday
Hornbys strong run from last year has
hit the buffers in 2004 - the results should
reveal a bit more about how the company sees the
takeover of Spanish company Electroten adding to
the bottom line. . Thoughts FTSE
It was another choppy weak for the FSTE
100 and theres nothing to suggest
this is going to change. 4480/4500
continues to be a problem and at the moment 4400
is the floor. We need a breakout from this range
to set up a reasonable move at the moment
up one day down the next looks set to continue.
Dow
The downtrend on the US market is clear to see
theres scope for a rally of around
200 points from here, but the latest bounce has
to be getting near to levels that are attractive
to the shorters again so dont be surprised
to see this start to run out of steam. Have good weekend and Bank
Holiday everyone. David( Limpfield Chartist)
All the
above comments are purely a personal opinion and
no investment advice is intended. Please do your
own research.
|
|
Martini
- 30 May 2004 11:38
- 4 of 39
Many thanks for the help I have had in doing the big one -The Weekend post.
In trying to put it together I am beginning to realise how much David put into it with his time and expertise.
Thank you David (Limpy) for stepping into the breach at such short notice and doing the thoughts for the week section.
It is impossible to replace David here but could any of you take on this guest slot for a week?
It does not have to be long and can cover any thing that you think would interest your fellow investors and I can do the HTML and image hosting bit.
Please email me through the MoneyAM internal system if you could please help out here for a week.
I have been a bit stretched having to brush up my HTML again and finding my Frontpage Express had gone now. But a hunt round the web found it again for me.
It is still and probably always will be a long way short of Davids high standards so please excuse errors.
Have a great weekend and bank holiday I need some breakfast now before I have another play to see if I can get it better.
Best Regards
Martini
Martini
- 30 May 2004 11:43
- 6 of 39
Phew :)
bush
- 30 May 2004 11:47
- 7 of 39
Martini, you have taken on a tremendous task and you are exceeding our highest expectations.
Thank you very much.
porky
- 30 May 2004 14:30
- 8 of 39
Great effort Martini,more power to your elbow,croc would be proud of you.
Regards.
Martini
- 30 May 2004 14:39
- 9 of 39
Thanks all
I have laid out the papers section again as I could not get it to work right for me. I hope it meets with your approval.
M
jj50
- 30 May 2004 15:35
- 11 of 39
Great effort Martini - so much appreciated. As bush and porky said, more than meeting our expectations. Have a well deserved bank holiday break.
Golddog
- 30 May 2004 20:04
- 12 of 39
Martini, It always occurred to me how much effort Croc put into providing us all with so much useful information and you have made a great effort here to, thankyou, i know it requires a bit of ftse stamina to keep it up and if you or someone else keeps it going then total respect to you and whoever. To fill Croc's shoes is never going to be easy.
Teddy Bear
- 30 May 2004 20:38
- 13 of 39
Martini
Thank you so much !
teddy
Gdub
- 31 May 2004 00:30
- 14 of 39
Cheers Martini, much appreciated.
Midazmidaz
- 31 May 2004 07:55
- 15 of 39
Martini you are doing a great job much appreciated.
hijeff
- 31 May 2004 08:34
- 16 of 39
thanx for the thread martin.
must point out your divi provider is wrong.NGT/SPW XD this week also.
Martini
- 31 May 2004 15:35
- 17 of 39
Thanks hijeff hopefully right now
capt M
- 31 May 2004 20:43
- 18 of 39
Hi Martini, many thanks for the effort.
Scottish power SPW also ex div on Wed: (extract from annual report)
Final divi 6.25 pence
INVESTOR TIMETABLE
Key investor dates going forward are as follows:
2 June 2004 Shares go ex-dividend for the fourth quarter
4 June 2004 Last date for registering transfers to receive the fourth
quarter dividend
28 June 2004 Fourth quarter dividend payable
23 July 2004 Annual General Meeting
12 August 2004 Announcement of results for the first quarter
18 August 2004 Shares go ex-dividend for the first quarter
20 August 2004 Last date for registering transfers to receive the first
quarter dividend
Martini
- 31 May 2004 21:34
- 19 of 39
capt M - added to header post
Thanks I need all the help I can get.
Regards
M
Bullshare
- 01 Jun 2004 06:32
- 20 of 39
morning all
zarif
- 01 Jun 2004 07:41
- 21 of 39
morning all
roma
- 01 Jun 2004 07:58
- 22 of 39
morning all, thanks Martini.Great job.
stockbunny
- 01 Jun 2004 08:35
- 23 of 39
Morning and thanks to Martini for keeping the thread going.
Lot of early movement in MKS..right or wrong I'm going to
try and ride it out until the initial panic subsides....
Good Luck all for the start of the new month.
daves dazzlers
- 01 Jun 2004 08:48
- 24 of 39
any body have an epic for umbro.
Fundamentalist
- 01 Jun 2004 09:05
- 25 of 39
Morning all
Douggie
- 01 Jun 2004 09:14
- 27 of 39
mornimg all Martini can't possibly have time to read all these posts ..many thanks anyway
claremont
- 01 Jun 2004 09:16
- 28 of 39
Martini you are doing a great job much appreciated.
Claremont
Melnibone
- 01 Jun 2004 09:20
- 29 of 39
Morning all.
Still favouring short the pops. As everyone points out, we are still
stuck in this approx 4400/4480 range. Note we still have not filled
the gap down open from early May. Check the close of the fifth candle
in May and the open on the sixth candle. So we could still see 4500
prior to any drop. (If we drop, that is. These are just opinions, not
predictions.)
Market is nervous and looking for a catalyst to move, IMHO. If a concensus
forms the move could be quite large as it gathers rapid momentum.
Rapid moves are normally down, not up. So an incorrect short will give you
time to operate a stop loss, where as you may not get the time with an
incorrect long. This will only affect geared day traders. LTBH players
should, as usual, be looking for a buying opportunity at a price they
are looking for in a well researched stock.
Melnibone.
snoball
- 01 Jun 2004 12:07
- 31 of 39
Good day.
I think the Dow & S&P500 will fall today.
Probably due to oil price concerns.
Don't bet on it though.
Martini
- 01 Jun 2004 17:11
- 33 of 39
Market ramblings wrap.
With worries over terrorism and 21 year high oil prices most European Markets followed the US lead and closed in negative territory. FTSE100 traded in a close range on small volumes and closed down only 8 points with 250 and small caps being hit harder.
Traders struggled to get any direction with many complaining that it was flat lining. No joy for the day trader if things dont move about a bit eh?
One reason for the stability in the UK on low volumes could be the number of Companies currently involved in share buy backs helping to support prices. Bit worrying when the best they can think to do with spare cash is buy their own shares back
MKS continued to be centre stage making new year highs and closing up on the day by 6p at 365.5 as the financial world awaits the next move by those stalking it.
M
But as always in a flat day individual shares did move significantly
Top % gainers for the day (which I am sad to say I held none)
BS. Base Grp. 28
GEE Govett Euro 26
TYM Tertiary Mins. 23
SC. Supercart 22
ESGN Estates&General 18
CYC CYC Hldgs. 18
GMN Gold Mines Sard 16
PRO Provalis 13
FPL First Calgary 13
MT. Mytravel GRP 13
WMS Wlth Mngt.Soft 12
ENVA Enterprse VCT A 12
IDOX I-Documntsystem 12
BGYA Br.Energy 'A' 12
BVC Batm Advanced 11
OVG Ovoca Res. 11
TTL TTG EUR 10
QTR Quiktrak 10
BRF Bright Future 10
DES Desire Pet. 9
IGT INC&Gwth TST 9
YSP Your Space 9
QA. QA 8
COH Coffeeheaven 8
FRO Frontline 7
NUG Numerica GRP 6
PCM Pacific Media 6
HCR Healthcare HLD 6
CIY Collins&Hayes 6
JQV Jacques Vert 6
Top % losers for the day (of which I am pleased to say I held none)
AKO Arko Hldgs -29
OND Overnet Data -19
AZH Azure Hlgs EX-E -17
ZYZ Zyzygy -16
NTA Northacre -10
LPA LPA Group -10
TDM 3DM Worldwide -10
CDN Caledon Res. -9
MRG Mercury Recyc. -9
RAV Raven Mount -9
MXC Matrix Comms. -8
CHU Chaucer Hldgs -8
PTC PNC Telecom -7
PPR Pentagon Prot. -7
COX COX Insurance -7
LBT Lloyds Br.Test -7
HMP Hampton Trust -7
WKT Walker (Thomas) -6
SVB SVB Hldgs. -6
IGL Interactve.Dig. -6
CFM Central African -6
EVS Envesta -6
ROS Ramco Energy -6
BBR Blooms.Bress. -6
MDW Mediwatch -6
KTS Knowledge Tech -6
PMD Profile Media -6
NEB Netb2b2 -6
CUX Cent.Energy INT -6
LDSG Leeds Group -6
Volume/price leaders
GSK Glaxosmithkline 455,906
HSBA Hsbc Hldgs.UK 338,066
MKS Marks & Sp. 333,620
GUS GUS 321,207
BP. BP 308,878
SPW Scot.Power 259,725
VOD Vodafone Grp. 257,096
BARC Barclays 163,048
RBS Royal Bank Scot 104,505
LLOY Lloyds TSB Grp. 103,778
BSY Bskyb 102,343
AZN Astrazeneca 86,011
DGE Diageo 82,927
RIO RIO Tinto 72,808
ULVR Unilever 68,118
BT.A BT Group 66,513
BLT BHP Billiton 66,470
HBOS Hbos 65,250
SHEL Shell 61,928
HG. Hilton Group 59,139
LAND Land Secs. 54,434
SAB Sabmiller 52,378
BA. BAE Sys. 50,642
EMG MAN Group 49,326
BATS Br.Amer.Tob. 47,289
AAL Anglo American 47,120
NGT National Grid 45,998
III 3I Grp. 45,026
STAN Stand.Chart. 43,178
KGF Kingfisher 42,629
Sector % Performance
Forestry & Paper 2.40%
Mining 0.77%
Oil & Gas 0.68%
Chemicals 0.32%
General Retailers 0.15%
Pharmaceuticals 0.11%
Health 0.09%
Banks 0.04%
Restaurants,Pubs & Breweries 0.00%
Packaging 0.00%
Gas Distribution 0.00%
Distributors 0.00%
Water 0.00%
Diversified Industrials 0.00%
Food & Drug Retailers -0.12%
Leisure,Entertainment & Hotels -0.26%
Aerospace and Defence -0.28%
Electricity -0.29%
Construction & Building Materials -0.34%
Tobacco -0.38%
Engineering & Machinery -0.40%
Investment Companies -0.47%
Transport -0.52%
Support Services -0.54%
Information Technology Hardware -0.56%
Real Estate -0.59%
Speciality & Other Finance -0.66%
Automobiles -0.68%
Electronic & Electrical Equipment -0.79%
Insurance -0.87%
Personal Care & Household Products -0.91%
Food Producers & Processors -1.04%
Life Assurance -1.08%
Telecommunications Services -1.10%
Media & Photography -1.26%
Beverages -1.27%
Software & Computer Services -1.29%
Steel & Other Metals -2.22%
Melnibone
- 01 Jun 2004 19:19
- 34 of 39
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2940 |
X |
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2910 |
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O |
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O |
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2880 |
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O |
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2850 |
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O |
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2820 |
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2790 |
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2760 |
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2730 |
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2700 |
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2670 |
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2640 |
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2610 |
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2580 |
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4600 |
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4500 |
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4400 |
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4300 |
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4200 |
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4100 |
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4000 |
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3900 |
Melnibone
- 01 Jun 2004 19:26
- 35 of 39
Couple of P&F charts above that show how confusing
I'm finding these markets.
Top one is the Dow Jones Eustoxx50 which I sometimes use
as a proxy for the S&P.
To me it looks Bearish with a descending triple bottom
and lower highs.
The bottom one is the Ftse100 which is showing an ascending
triple top, which to me looks Bullish.
The low that took out the double bottom was the Madrid low
which may be an aberration. If you take a line through
the previous two lows and the next higher low, it didn't
breach it.
Anyone got any firm convictions?
Melnibone (In puzzled mode)
Melnibone
- 01 Jun 2004 19:34
- 36 of 39
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1160 |
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1150 |
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1140 |
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1130 |
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1120 |
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1110 |
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1100 |
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O |
X |
1090 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
X |
|
|
|
|
O |
|
1080 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1070 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
X |
|
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1060 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
X |
|
X |
O |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1050 |
|
|
|
|
X |
|
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1040 |
|
|
|
|
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1030 |
|
|
|
|
X |
O |
X |
O |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1020 |
X |
|
X |
|
X |
O |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1010 |
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1000 |
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
O |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
990 |
X |
O |
X |
O |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
980 |
X |
O |
|
O |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
970 |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
960 |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
950 |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
940 |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
930 |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
920 |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
910 |
X |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
900 |
Melnibone
- 01 Jun 2004 19:45
- 37 of 39
To add fuel to the fire, above is the S&P, which shows
how the US has changed from Bullish to Bearish with
lower highs and lows.
SHEL and BP. are probably having a stabilizing effect in addition
to the natural defensive make-up of the Ftse.
Plus, as Martini pointed out, there does seem to be some
sector rotation going on.
Just fishing for reasons really, on why the FTSE isn't testing
4300 by now.
Melnibone.
Velocity
- 02 Jun 2004 08:05
- 38 of 39
Melnibone - I look at similar trades to you (find your posts very interesting) and on UKX I am simply waiting for a break of the the current sideways range on a closing basis. Trying to forecast a break is too risky for me so I'll just wait for confirmation.
Good luck!
Melnibone
- 02 Jun 2004 12:05
- 39 of 39
You're probably right, Velocity.
Trying to call the direction of a range break can be detrimental
to your wealth. :-)
I just get irked when stuff doesn't drop into place.
Guess it's a control freak thing that I need to deal with. :-)
Melnibone.