Martini
- 02 Jun 2004 21:42
Martini
- 02 Jun 2004 21:42
- 2 of 36
Sorry for the epic Oil again but its price seems to dominate Market action at present.
Dow rallied as oil price dropped in response to comments from OPEC talking down the price and indicating the taps would be turned on.
Nasdaq did not follow due to worries in the semiconductor sector.
So all eyes turn to OPEC tomorrow again.
I am off out for most of tomorrow so good hunting all and whatever the general Market does there will always be rich pickings out there in selective shares.
Just wish I knew what they are!
M
ThePlayboy
- 03 Jun 2004 07:12
- 3 of 36
Nikkei had a bad one, Dow futs well down, last night ftse was indicating a +20 open now -3!
Morning btw!
ThePlayboy
- 03 Jun 2004 07:13
- 4 of 36
Updated 6/2 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 6/3
UP Above 10,300
DN Below 10,225
Upside Break
Dow breaks consolidation to upside, pushes higher to the Close.
From prior commentary, "...The consolidation has developed into a downward-sloping pattern, which typically has a higher potential for an upside break. Watch for a break through 10,230 tomorrow, which will likely spark a significant rise in the market..."
The Dow got an upside break from the sloping consolidation this morning, which fueled a move higher to the Close, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Chart. The Dow rose 60 points to finish the day, but further upside movement is likely.
Look for the Dow to continue trending higher toward the upper boundary of the major downward-sloping range, seen in the Daily Chart. The Dow will likely hit the upper trend line at around 10,360 before another major move is seen.
Conversely, a downside push through 10,225 will likely make for a larger pull-back within the current uptrend.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow has formed a clear trend line beneath the lows of the recent advance, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. A downside break of the line at 10,250 will make for weakness tomorrow morning.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Long today at 10,242 and are still in the trade. We will continue to hold stops at the entry and will stay Long above 10,300. We will look to enter Shorts below 10,225; using 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The S&P pushed slowly higher today, while the NASDAQ held within its sloping range. Look for the NASDAQ to continue holding within its range before a clear break is seen. An upside break is likely since the S&P and Dow have already done so. *
Summary
The Dow got an upside break from the sloping consolidation today, which sparked a slow, but steady move higher. Look for a continuation higher toward the major upper trend line from the Daily Chart, at around 10,360. Otherwise, a break below 10,225 will indicate weakness.
ThePlayboy
- 03 Jun 2004 07:13
- 5 of 36
daily
ThePlayboy
- 03 Jun 2004 07:16
- 6 of 36
thu ftse pp
r2 4475
r1 4449
pp 4436
s1 4410
s2 4396
Ftse closed below its pivot on wed and lost 4.7pts in the auction, still in a downtrend off wed high sub 30, pos break up thru this level to watch imho, dow currently trading sideways above 10200, odd action on ftse giving away the gains in the arvo after looking so strong, looks like trade the range still!
Fundamentalist
- 03 Jun 2004 09:11
- 11 of 36
Morning LW
The MKS situation is hard to guage imho hence i am currently avoiding. Gut reaction says that this offer will be rejected, the question then becomes whether the offer will be raised or will lapse.
Currently watching BSY plummet. Next support looks like 550p!
Fundamentalist
- 03 Jun 2004 09:43
- 13 of 36
Hard to guage this am, Dow up 60 overnight, FTSE down 20 this am - what happened to follow my leader?
ThePlayboy
- 03 Jun 2004 09:52
- 14 of 36
fundamentalist oil up and nikkei down overnight dragged those dow futs dow, we were on for a +20 open until then last night
Fundamentalist
- 03 Jun 2004 09:57
- 15 of 36
thanks tp
little woman
- 03 Jun 2004 10:17
- 17 of 36
Today's UK company results
ALT Applied Optical Technologies PLC year to March 31 2004
Sales - 26.06 mln stg vs 27.16 mln
Pretax loss - 1.53 mln stg vs loss 19.37 mln
Operating loss before exceptionals and goodwill - 300,000 stg vs loss
400,000
Operating loss - 1.51 mln stg vs loss 19.35 mln
Loss per share before exceptionals and goodwill - 2.2 pence vs LPS 1.1
Loss per share - 4.6 pence vs LPS 38.7
CFYN Caffyns PLC year to March 31 2004
Sales - 153.11 mln stg vs 148.48 mln
Pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 3.35 mln stg vs 3.18 mln
Pretax profit - 3.11 mln stg vs 4.74 mln
Adjusted EPS - 95.5 pence vs 88.1
EPS - 88.1 pence vs 144.0
Final div - 1.50 pence vs 14.0 making 22.5 pence vs 21.0 pay 29/07/04
Books close 25/06/04
CPW Carphone Warehouse Group PLC 52 weeks to March 27 2004
Sales - 1.85 bln stg vs 1.84 bln
Pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 76.3 mln stg vs 57.0 mln
Pretax profit - 44.5 mln stg vs 34.5 mln
EPS before exceptionals and goodwill - 6.81 pence vs 5.25
EPS - 3.17 pence vs 2.60
Final div - 0.9 pence making 1.3 pence vs 1.0 pay N/A
Books close N/A
DMGT Daily Mail & General Trust PLC half year to April 4 2004
Sales - 1.05 bln stg vs 961.8 mln
Pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 107.3 mln stg vs 83.4 mln
Pretax profit - 75.3 mln stg vs 50.4 mln
Operating profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 134.9 mln stg vs 109.8
mln
Operating profit - 103.9 mln stg vs 83.2 mln
EPS before exceptionals and goodwill - 18.6 pence vs 14.6
EPS - 11.7 pence vs 6.7
Interim div - 3.45 pence vs 3.15 pay 09/07/04
Books close 11/06/04
ESH East Surrey Holdings PLC year to March 31 2004
Sales - 73.1 mln stg vs 55.5 mln
Pretax profit - 9.19 mln stg vs 15.19 mln
Operating profit - 14.86 mln stg vs 13.05 mln
EPS before exceptionals 0 11,3 pence vs 21.6
EPS - 11.8 pence vs 29.5
Final div - 9.55 pence vs 9.3 making 14.3 pence vs 13.9 pay 16/08/04
Books close 09/07/04
FKI FKI PLC year ended 31 March 2004
Sales - 1.34 bln stg vs 1.45 bln
Pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 67.2 mln stg vs 77.4 mln
Pretax loss - 17.3 mln stg vs profit 26.4 mln
Operating profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 96.9 mln stg vs 103.9
mln
Operating profit - 32.9 mln stg vs 71.8 26.4 mln
EPS before exceptionals and goodwill - 8.7 pence vs 10.0
Loss per share - 3.5 pence vs EPS 1.9
Final div - 3.0 pence making 4.5 pence, unchanged pay 29/10/04
Books close 01/10/04
GNS Genus PLC year to March 31 2004
Sales - 183.71 mln stg vs 172.79 mln
Pretax profit before exceptionals - 8.37 mln stg vs 5.14
Pretax profit - 8.14 mln stg vs 5.14 mln
Underlying EPS - 19.5 pence vs 22.2
EPS - 15.5 pence vs 8.3
Final div - 6.5 pence making 6.5 pence vs 5.5 pay 18/08/04
Books close 22/07/04; Ex-div 21/07/04
JMAT Johnson Matthey PLC year to March 31 2004
Sales - 4.49 bln stg vs 4.32 bln
Pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 195.7 mln stg vs 189.9 mln
Pretax profit - 178.0 mln stg vs 173.5 mln
Operating profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 206.0 mln stg vs 189.2
mln
Operating profit - 188.3 mln stg vs 167.9 mln
EPS before exceptionals and goodwill - 64.0 pence vs 61.8
EPS - 56.0 pence vs 55.4
Final div - 18.2 pence making 26.4 pence vs 25.5 pay 03/08/04
Books close 11/06/04
MPL Montpellier Group PLC six months to March 31 2004
Sales - 212.34 mln stg vs 211.53 mln
Pretax loss - 20.67 mln stg vs profit 2.95 mln
Group operating loss - 20.7 mln stg vs profit 3.4 mln
Loss per share - 33.68 pence vs EPS 4.30
Interim div - nil vs 0.5 pence
OXIG Oxford Instruments PLC year to March 31 2004
Sales - 182.3 mln stg vs 186.6 mln
Pretax profit - 11.9 mln stg vs 2.4 mln
Operating profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 8.0 mln stg vs
Operating profit - 5.7 mln stg vs 3.9 mln
EPS before exceptionals and goodwill - 11.4 pence vs 7.9
EPS - 21.3 pence vs 2.6
Final div - 6.0 pence making 8.4 pence, unchanged pay 29/10/04
Books close 01/10/04
PCF Private & Commercial Finance Group PLC year to December 31 2003
Sales - 31.35 mln stg vs 33.16 mln
Pretax loss - 1.56 mln stg vs profit 1.37 mln
Net loss - 989,477 stg vs profit 929,636
Loss per share - 6.5 pence vs EPS 6.4
Final div - 0.5 pence making 1.6 pence pay 23/07/04
Books close 11/06/04
RED Redstone PLC year to March 31 2004
Sales - 60.73 mln stg vs 68.86 mln
Pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 13,000 stg vs loss 3.2 mln
Pretax loss - 3.41 mln stg vs loss 6.96 mln
EBITDA profit before exceptionals - 996,000 stg vs loss 1.21 mln
EBITDA profit - 1.70 mln stg vs loss 1.21 mln
Loss per share - 1.22 pence vs LPS 2.22
SDY Speedy Hire PLC year to March 31, 2004
Sales - 170.2 mln stg vs 143.9 mln
Pretax profit before goodwill - 22 mln stg vs 18.9 mln
Pretax profit - 21.2 mln stg vs 18.2 mln
EPS before goodwill with underlying tax charge - 38.66 pence vs 31.39
Basic EPS - 42.34 pence vs 31.89
Final div - 6.8 pence making 10.5 pence vs 9.0 pay N/A
Books close N/A
TATE Tate & Lyle PLC year to March 31 2004
Sales - 3.17 bln stg vs 3.17 bln
Pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 227 mln stg vs 228 mln
Pretax profit - 224 mln stg vs 187 mln
EPS - 32.7 pence vs 27.8
Final div - 13.2 pence making 18.8 pence vs 18.3 pay 04/08/04
Books close 09/07/04
TSY Transport Systems PLC year to March 31 200
Sales - 3.29 mln stg vs 2.65 mln
Pretax profit before goodwill - 220,569 stg vs loss 260,661
Pretax profit - 137,473 stg vs loss 343,768
EPS before goodwill - 1.4 pence vs loss per share 2.3
EPS - 0.9 pence vs loss per share 3.0
Final div - 0.25 pence making 0.25 pence vs nil pay 14/08/04
Books close 30/07/04; Ex-div 28/07/04
WAGN Wagon PLC year to March 31 2004
Sales on continuing ops - 486.9 mln stg vs 408.9 mln
Pretax profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 16.5 mln stg vs 14.1 mln
Pretax profit - 6.5 mln stg vs 22.2 mln
Operating profit before exceptionals and goodwill - 20.1 mln stg vs 17.5
mln
Operating profit - 12.7 mln stg vs 10.9 mln
EPS before exceptionals and goodwill - 20.1 pence vs 15.7
EPS - 0.5 pence vs 32.9
Final div - 5.0 pence, unchanged making 9.0 pence, unchanged pay 06/09/04
Books close 06/08/04
newsdesk@afxnews.com
ThePlayboy
- 03 Jun 2004 10:34
- 18 of 36
long ftse futs 09 but need it above 15 (10 cash) to break out of downtrend off Wed high
Melnibone
- 03 Jun 2004 10:35
- 19 of 36
Morning all,
Ftse near the bottom of its range.
US isn't.
Job figures at 1330 may decide which way the US goes,
towards the bottom of the range or the top.
If it goes towards the bottom there is a chance that the Ftse
will break below 4400. If it doesn't, I see the Ftse heading back up
towards 4440.
Also watching, BSY, Fundamentalist.
We seem to watch the same stocks. :-)
Melnibone.
Douggie
- 03 Jun 2004 10:41
- 20 of 36
mornin all
little woman
- 03 Jun 2004 10:52
- 21 of 36
Latest on MKS:
LONDON (AFX) - One of Marks & Spencer Group PLC's 10 largest shareholders has described Philip Green's proposed offer for the UK's largest clothing retailer as "unexciting".
Earlier, the billionaire retail entrepreneur detailed the terms of a proposed 9 bln stg bid.
He said he is prepared to make an offer for M&S of 290-310 pence a share in cash plus a 25 pct interest in the equity of his vehicle Revival Acquisitions that he intends to list.
His offer is subject to a recommendation from the M&S board and a review of financial information he hopes to obtain from the retailer.
Monaco-based Green has waived traditional due diligence but requires disclosure of the terms and conditions of the contractual relationship between M&S and George Davies, the designer of the 'Per Una' women's wear range.
Significantly, the incremental 20 pence per share cash consideration is dependent on a "satisfactory review" of this contract.
He also wants information on pensions, capital expenditure and current trading.
"The numbers don't look exciting even for a siting shot," the top 10 shareholder told AFX News on condition of anonymity.
"There's a lot of conditionality and not a lot of visibility as far as the equity piece is concerned."
Analysts said Green's proposed offer is difficult to value in total, being dependent on the rating given to the 25 pct minority or 'stub' that would be listed, probably on the Alternative Investment Market. However, they suggested his offer is worth 340-400 pence in total.
Shares in M&S, which had risen by some 25 pct since Green said he was considering a bid last Thursday, fell on the announcement. By 10.27 am they were down 16 pence, or 4.4 pct, at 350.
M&S is still to respond to Green's statement but is expected to reject the proposal.
ThePlayboy
- 03 Jun 2004 11:03
- 22 of 36
cut ftse long at 14, u can rally now ftse
Melnibone
- 03 Jun 2004 11:16
- 24 of 36
That sounds a little on the fatalistic side, TP.
Do I detect a note of resignation? ;-)
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 03 Jun 2004 11:22
- 25 of 36
lol yep 4410 cash strong res atm popping out back later, 5 better than 0:)
Fundamentalist
- 03 Jun 2004 11:53
- 27 of 36
Mel
great to have you back posting regularly again.
As for BSY its frustrating me:
I couldnt convince the investment club to sell at above 700p and then closed my own short too early (at 605p i think) having closed my long way too early on the way up. Still at least im getting the direction right and making some gains - mustnt get too greedy!
you still watching SKP ?
Melnibone
- 03 Jun 2004 12:05
- 28 of 36
Hi Fundamentalist,
Was away on holiday last week.
Ref SKP, I did what I said I would do.
The good news came out, the price rocketed up to resistance
at 68/70p. Then,as expected, it retraced back down to the 58/60p
support on profit taking where I took a position.
Standard life have helped to depress the price as it is still
reorganising its portfolio and stocks/bonds mix to less risk.
Melnibone.
Fundamentalist
- 03 Jun 2004 12:14
- 30 of 36
Mel
I top sliced SKP at 70p ish, bought it back at 54p and then top sliced again at 67p. I have just topped it back up again at 60p as it appears to be holding as support and I want to be in fully when the third deal and this yr forecasts are announced. Going to continue to be rocky so will continue to trade half and have half as LTBH. A bit contradictory but it is working at the mo!
hope you had a good holiday :)
little woman
- 03 Jun 2004 13:25
- 31 of 36
Ah so that's why it been so quiet - go anywhere special - mel?
From a DJ colomnist
PARIS (Dow Jones)--The last thing any investor wants these days is for a company they're a shareholder of to be Spitzered.
But if it happens, it would be foolhardy to shrug off the implications - even if you suspect there's more to the New York attorney-general's crusade against improper business practices than a desire to root out poor governance.
After all, Citigroup's payment of the lion's share of the $1.4-billion settlement earlier this year over tainted bank research reports was large enough to send a chill down any investor's spine.
That makes the selloff in GSK shares Wednesday understandable. It was triggered by news of Eliot Spitzer's lawsuit accusing the British drugs company of fraud in concealing concerns about the efficacy and safety of its top-selling treatment for depression, Paxil, when prescribed for children.
But the sudden evaporation of a couple of billion pounds of GSK's market value looks overdone - to a degree.
Spitzer is only after repayment of what is likely to have been a couple of hundred of million dollars in profit from the sales of Paxil to children. There are unspecified damages, too, and the threat of future class-action suits. Of course, GSK has deep pockets, with operating cashflow of GBP7.0 billion in 2003.
In addition, there's the distinct possibility some sort of out-of-court settlement will be reached.
As worrying as GSK's handling of the diffusion of information surrounding Paxil is, a big pharmaceutical company that's having trouble with a drug being used in the highly sensitive and emotive area of treating depressed and suicidal children is perhaps a choice target for an attorney-general with political ambitions.
Remember, too, that if anything GSK's problem is that Paxil has been too successful in treating depression, luring makers of generic drugs to successfully challenge its patents. The start of sales of generic alternatives helped peg back GSK's revenue from Paxil in 2003, and led the company to take a GBP633-million impairment charge for the carrying value of Paxil's product rights.
At the same time, attentive investors have known for some time that GSK was running into legal trouble over Paxil. In the U.S., GSK is facing suits claiming Paxil is addictive. In the U.K, partly thanks to media coverage detailing the serious side-effects suffered by some patients on Seroxat (as Paxil is known there), GSK dropped its claim that the drug wasn't addictive.
To be sure, treating depression with drugs that act on the body's central nervous system is a notoriously inexact business. And determining the efficacy of drugs on already suicidal patients isn't easy. If a patient says he or she wants to take their own life, who's to say it's because of the illness or the drug?
For investors, however, the fear is that the swift turnaround in GSK's fortunes regarding Paxil is symptomatic of the way the company is being managed. Even if GSK didn't cover up, as Spitzer claims, studies showing the weaknesses of Paxil, it has arguably been insensitive in tackling problems related to the drug while raking in revenue from it.
And with generic competition increasingly a threat to its other top-selling drugs, such as another anti-depressant, Wellbutrin, worries about short- to medium-term earnings growth at GSK, given its far-from exciting pipeline, are likely to linger.
So while the "Spitzer discount" may be too deep, don't expect the share price to bounce back quickly.
Martini
- 03 Jun 2004 16:52
- 35 of 36
Market ramblings wrap.
Having been out for most of the trading day I came back to find the FTSE100 closed up in the end by 12.6 points
Having not had my daily dose of news I will avoid making any comments on what drove the market. You already know anyway.
Now off to think about what to do for tomorrow.
M
In the rest of the Market
Top % gainers for the day (of which I am sad to day I held none)
YTE Yates Grp. 19
MMC Mangmnt.Cons.GP 18
PVN Proven VCT 18
PVM Proven Media 17
OND Overnet Data 12
BGYA Br.Energy 'A' 11
XTL XTL Biopharm 11
DTG Dart Group 11
PEN Pennant Int. 9
BLR Black Rock OIL 9
CLC Clinical Comp. 9
AVT Adv.Tech.UK 9
HYWD Heywood Wms. 9
LEG Legendary Inv. 9
GNS Genus 8
MCF Madisons Coffee 7
DIA Diagonal 7
EPO Earthport 7
CRX Cyprotex 6
CFP CFA Capital GRP 6
AMU AIR Music&Media 6
DINK Dinkie Heel 6
CRP Cryptologic 6
LPA LPA Group 6
MRG Mercury Recyc. 5
PRO Provalis 5
VTH Vtech Hldgs. 5
GMN Gold Mines Sard 5
ACE Accident Exch 5
VTI Virotec Intl 5
Top % losers for the day (of which I am saddened to say I held one. Bugger!)
MAT Matisse EX-ENT -63
TDM 3DM Worldwide -21
IAL Inter-Alliance -20
CBF Cobra BIO-Man. -19
PND Penn.Down.AIM 2 -15
MDS Mondas -12
FRO Frontline -12
TTL TTG EUR -11
ARC ARC Risk Man. -10
VHL Vane Hldgs -10
AFG African Gold -10
SRTS Surface Tech -8
CLR Clover Corp -8
ETQ Energy Tech. -8
ASR Avionic Service -7
PIP Pipehawk -7
BFRD Beauford -7
HRR Harrier Group -7
TOYE Toye & Co. -6
MKP Mark Kingsley -6
DVS Designer Vision -6
ZOX Zincox Res. -6
SGF Singer&Frid.AIM -6
TEG Teather&Grnwood -6
PDX Pursuit Dynamic -6
IGA Ingenta -6
PET Petrel RES -6
BHM Bookham Tech -5
NTX NXT -5
AFD African Diamond -5
Price x Volume leaders
VOD Vodafone Grp. 508,371
GSK Glaxosmithkline 414,862
MKS Marks & Sp. 406,422
BP. BP 338,197
LLOY Lloyds TSB Grp. 290,350
HSBA Hsbc Hldgs.UK 252,974
AZN Astrazeneca 131,956
RBS Royal Bank Scot 110,415
BSY Bskyb 99,977
EMG MAN Group 98,227
RIO RIO Tinto 97,772
SAB Sabmiller 92,177
BARC Barclays 90,974
TSCO Tesco 88,699
HG. Hilton Group 87,881
SHEL Shell 85,684
DGE Diageo 75,021
KGF Kingfisher 72,778
BATS Br.Amer.Tob. 69,651
GUS GUS 68,397
BT.A BT Group 67,756
ANL Abbey Nat. 67,649
BLT BHP Billiton 67,461
BAA BAA 65,472
HBOS Hbos 59,671
STAN Stand.Chart. 58,501
BG. BG Grp. 58,002
BOOT Boots Group 57,497
CW. Cable & Wire 56,797
OOM Mmo2 54,706
Sector Indices % movement
Personal Care & Household Products 1.80%
Beverages 1.73%
Pharmaceuticals 1.35%
Aerospace and Defence 1.18%
Health 1.06%
Electronic & Electrical Equipment 0.83%
Tobacco 0.74%
Automobiles 0.54%
Oil & Gas 0.41%
Food & Drug Retailers 0.36%
Transport 0.30%
Engineering & Machinery 0.25%
Life Assurance 0.16%
Construction & Building Materials 0.16%
Food Producers & Processors 0.05%
Electricity 0.03%
Packaging 0.00%
Restaurants,Pubs & Breweries 0.00%
Water 0.00%
Gas Distribution 0.00%
Distributors 0.00%
Diversified Industrials 0.00%
Forestry & Paper 0.00%
Leisure,Entertainment & Hotels -0.07%
General Retailers -0.11%
Software & Computer Services -0.23%
Real Estate -0.30%
Banks -0.34%
Chemicals -0.41%
Media & Photography -0.54%
Telecommunications Services -0.67%
Investment Companies -0.69%
Mining -0.79%
Support Services -0.93%
Speciality & Other Finance -1.21%
Information Technology Hardware -1.46%
Insurance -1.68%
Steel & Other Metals -4.55%
amberjane
- 03 Jun 2004 21:35
- 36 of 36
They say there's a first for everything, I had TWO in the top % risers (mind you one was in the Top % losers yesterday so is cancelled out) but ones enough, mustnt be greedy.