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Traders Thread Friday 11th June (CROC)     

Martini - 10 Jun 2004 21:10

 

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1 Day     2 Day  5 Day   UK News
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Gold/Bond Pivots Markets  Futures Translate
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Day 2 Day 5 Day US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei +208 Hang Seng +150  Asia News
  DAX    CAC     Euro News
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InterimsFinalsAGM / EGM CAL : Capital & Regional CAW : Carrwood EST : Eastern European Trust TFC : Trafficmaster WHY : White Young GreenEconomic

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Economic 1.30pm BST Core PPI May exp 0.20% 1.30pm BST PPI May exp 0.50% 1.30pm BST Trade Balance Apr exp -$45.0B 2.45pm BST Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jun exp 92

EconomicSP: 08.00 CPI (May) +1.4% (+2.7%) +0.6% (+3.4%) EU-12: 10.00 Current Account (Q1) 18.5bn IRL: 11.00 CPI (May) +0.4% (+1.4%) +0.3% (+1.8%) IRL: 11.00 Industrial Production (April Early est) +1.9% (+5.9%) -1.0% (+4.5%)

Martini - 10 Jun 2004 21:11 - 2 of 87

Well having opened Thursdays thread fearlessly forecasting a .25% rise in UK interest rates and a flat Market I was proved to be right.
The UK Market went nowhere fast although as Gausie in the Traders room pointed out underlying the big picture there was many a move in the fine detail.

The Markets in the US had a better day and closed up on highs for the day but hardly a strong performance.

So having called that one right I am now elevating myself to Market Guru status and for Friday I predict that the USA will close near to flat.
DYOR NIAI etc.

Whilst checking out that I had not been so bold as to forecast anything before I did find how difficult it was to search for all the old traders threads. Searching by creator name is rubbish here and searching by epic does not work as Croc and I have been using a new epic each day.

So I took a decision whilst I continue to host this thread (I can be very potent at times) to change the way this thread is presented.
Call it the Traders Thread as that is what it is but to honour its founder by using CROC as the epic rather than in the title so old threads can easily be found by searching under Epic CROC (upper case) in the future.

Good Hunting
Guru of Oxon

Fundamentalist - 10 Jun 2004 21:17 - 3 of 87

Thanks as usual Martini

Brave prediction on the US tomorrow :-)

daves dazzlers - 10 Jun 2004 21:22 - 4 of 87

i cant see much change between now and july 4th.

amberjane - 10 Jun 2004 23:40 - 5 of 87

Evening all

Sorry just got to do something for M.

'I must not post to the old thread after the new one is up'
'I must not post to the old thread after the new one is up'
'I must not post to the old thread after the new one is up' x 200

OK I cheated but I couldnt sit down to type for much longer- my thighs hurt :>)

Martini - 10 Jun 2004 23:50 - 6 of 87

:)

amberjane - 10 Jun 2004 23:53 - 7 of 87

Just one more time so I remember

'I must not post to the old thread after the new one is up'

Nite M

Bullshare - 11 Jun 2004 06:00 - 8 of 87

morning all

zarif - 11 Jun 2004 07:19 - 9 of 87

Morning all:
Martini & Amberjane - I wonder what the guru status had done to you martini getting the young lady to do the "lines" btw who is holding the whip?
Have a good day

rgds

ThePlayboy - 11 Jun 2004 07:30 - 10 of 87

FRI FTSE PP

R2 4504
R1 4495
PP 4485
S1 4476
S2 4467

Ftse closed below its pp but gained 5.2 pts in the auction! Traded sideways after breaking out of the downtrend, pivots accurate for Fri, double top at R1 to watch and s1 the low, cont strength with dow close above 400 and weakness on a sub 370 close imho, uptrend still intact on dow above 10360 the real key level however!

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 07:37 - 11 of 87

Morning punters.

I'm yawning already. Not expecting fireworks today, but you never know your luck.

Longs on ALM, IMG, JKX, short RR.

News very thin on the ground and quite amazing each morning how much is devoted to the big boys buying back their shares. Can't these highly paid chaps and chapesses find anything better for their investors?

Cattles (CTT) must investigate this further. It is a sector Ive been trading and news might affect KGN.
http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200406110700076603Z.html

Banks (UB81) might be a focus today?
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=375411

Elan (ELA) might perk them up?
http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20040611070000Z1493.html

Have a good day.

Al

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 08:04 - 12 of 87

Morning all,

Managed to make "watching" the auction this morning!

hawick - 11 Jun 2004 08:08 - 13 of 87

Morning all! Butting in, as ordered ;) . Thanks for the welcomes yesterday. DATA broke out yesterday and opening up slightly again this morning. FTSE likely to snooze with US shut. Might be little more action on CAC and DAX ahead of Euro-election results?

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 08:13 - 14 of 87

morning campers and you AL :-)

long UKX CNA CS CTM ICI MNKS RTR looking to long BLND...

hope you all have a great day.

Mega...

great to see you posting hawick :-)

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 08:18 - 15 of 87

MB, hawick - morning.

Bored already.

hawick - are you from Hawick?

hawick - 11 Jun 2004 08:24 - 16 of 87

Big Al you've heard of it!! Long time ago, long story, great rugby team nice knitwear, Dawson a dog of a stock tho'!! Remember the Pringle boys! Puke!

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 08:26 - 17 of 87

love the borders got a big static van near carter bar :-)

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 08:27 - 18 of 87

hawick - live in Edinburgh m8. ;-)

Market giving me the zzzzzzzzzzzz's

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 08:28 - 19 of 87

jj - WMK nudging?

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 08:40 - 20 of 87

long BLND 684

hawick - 11 Jun 2004 08:42 - 21 of 87

Zzzzzzzzzz here too. Carter Bar, great view. DATA now attempting 100p! Added to TTS @72p, my favourite value share, but sorry not a day trading stock!!

jj50 - 11 Jun 2004 08:43 - 22 of 87

Morning Martini, Big Al, hawick, MB, LW et al........

Yes...WMK going in the right direction!

Still haven't worked out if you are actually from hawick, hawick! I'm just outside of Edinburgh..



Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 08:49 - 23 of 87

jj - where are you?

jj50 - 11 Jun 2004 08:52 - 24 of 87

Inveresk, by Musselburgh - was in city till recently

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 08:54 - 25 of 87

Know it well. Currently in Port Seton also having sold up in town.

jj50 - 11 Jun 2004 08:56 - 26 of 87

Neighbours!! ASOS doing well today.

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 09:03 - 27 of 87

long more BLND 681.

hawick - 11 Jun 2004 09:06 - 28 of 87

For my sins jj50, i was sent to Loretto as a schoolboy, many aeons agone! Used to play Gullane (number 3 was more my level tho :o )

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 09:09 - 29 of 87

Blimey - there's more traders up here than I thought.

I don't suppose either of you went to the AM meeting we had up here last April?

I can see nothing I want to trade at present, but still interested in those buy bots on RDW.

torquay - 11 Jun 2004 09:16 - 30 of 87

Good prediction with the USA being closed or have I missed the point.

biffa18 - 11 Jun 2004 09:20 - 31 of 87

Hi Guys
Dont normally post but AM board seem quite sensible these days !!
any of you cast an eye over tadpole moved into techmark 100 got large following boards etc any thoughts on poss direction
long on aht,fto,cna

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 09:30 - 32 of 87

biffa - doesn't seem to like it above 19p at present. Good run if it closes above 20p again? Only one I follow as an aside.

Douggie - 11 Jun 2004 09:41 - 33 of 87

mornin all

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 09:41 - 34 of 87

I'm still short CTM, but then I did go short @ 88.75.

Martini - 11 Jun 2004 10:00 - 35 of 87

Hi all

torquay
Just me trying to be being ironic

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 10:08 - 36 of 87

JKX breaking out. When she goes, she goes. Still long. ;-))

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 10:15 - 37 of 87

BLND breaking out.When she goes,she goes.Still long. :-)

ditto CTM :-)

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 10:17 - 38 of 87

Took a few more JKX

jj50 - 11 Jun 2004 10:19 - 39 of 87

JKX going the right way..

Hawick, I have one at Loretto still!

hawick - 11 Jun 2004 10:28 - 40 of 87

They take girls these days!!!! So I need to ask which gender! (Showing my age!)Long to go??

Added another genuine long termer VTS after the recent breakout.

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 10:28 - 41 of 87

this is like watching paint dry today zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz :-)

BLND still looking good!

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 10:28 - 42 of 87

MB - broken out.

graph.php?startDate=11%2F12%2F03&period=

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 11:31 - 43 of 87

Still confident with my CTM short.

graph.php?startDate=11%2F06%2F04&period=graph.php?startDate=07%2F06%2F04&period=

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 11:46 - 44 of 87

Anyone would think everyone has disappeared off for a long weekend......

zarif - 11 Jun 2004 11:48 - 45 of 87

Hello guys and gals.
Yipee had a short on the cable lastnight from 18425 and has falled some 250odd points -just gled to the screen locking in profits.


Fundamentalist - 11 Jun 2004 11:52 - 46 of 87

Hi all

Very quiet day - well done Zarif

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 11:53 - 47 of 87

lw - certainly not! Things livened up a bit.

Added longs in AZM and WBY. WBY - thought sell bot done, but was mistaken. Might be a bummer. AZM gives a nice ts so jumped in.

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 11:54 - 48 of 87

Nice one zarif. FX ain't my thing, but keep an eye on it. Do you watch the FX thread in the Traders' Room? Some handy stuff there.

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 12:07 - 49 of 87

I keep disappearing off to do things. I come back to find very little has
changed.....

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 12:08 - 50 of 87

Nice to hear you are still doing really well zarif - whats your secret?

Fundamentalist - 11 Jun 2004 12:12 - 51 of 87

Big Al

long a housebuilder day after interest rates go up - bit contrarian ?

amberjane - 11 Jun 2004 12:13 - 52 of 87

Morning all

Zarif - we took it in turns! Had to have a lie in I was exhausted.

A very well done on your trade.

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 12:17 - 53 of 87

Fundamentalist - purely speculative intraday L2 play. Unfortunately, sell bot still there - thought it had cleared. Watching closely, but could lob for only minor loss. Looking round the sector, prices being held up depsite +0.25% Don't believe it'll last longer term.

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 12:20 - 54 of 87

amberjane, I'm afraid its afternoon not morning! Nice to see you up and about.

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 12:23 - 55 of 87

amber - remember CAN? It's not you buying and making it go up?

amberjane - 11 Jun 2004 12:23 - 56 of 87

Oh s... is it, I wondered where half my life was going!!!!

Afternoon LW & all. :>)

Fundamentalist - 11 Jun 2004 12:24 - 57 of 87

Al

Longer term the one with real value to me is MCTY. Very strong fundamentally, been making share buy backs, higher margins, higher ROCE, gain planning easier, less susceptible to interest rate rises, little competition in retirement market, aging population, likely takeover target for Persimmon etc etc. Looking for a retrace to 480-500 (hopefully) before buying in the ISA.

amberjane - 11 Jun 2004 12:24 - 58 of 87

Nope no funds at present but I bet your pleased, in profit yet?

amberjane - 11 Jun 2004 12:33 - 59 of 87

Fundy

Was thinking of ditching Bovis for MCTY for same thoughts, aging pop etc. Any long term thoughts on BVS?

Fundamentalist - 11 Jun 2004 12:39 - 60 of 87

Amber

Bovis from the dealings I have had with them are a well run company with a pretty solid land bank. they are currently one of the mid sized companies who are not quite big enough but dont want to be taken over. for a while it had been perceived within the industry that they and Redrow would merge to enable them to compete in size with Persimmon, Barratts and Taylor Woodrow. The industry is quiet currently but there is more consolidation to come and i wouldnt be surprised to see Bovis involved. I will have a look at the fundamentals later and post some more thoughts.

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 12:41 - 61 of 87

Fundie - never looked at MCTY before.

Never been much good at picking things on numbers; purely TA for me and intraday stuff playing with the spread.

amberjane - 11 Jun 2004 12:43 - 62 of 87

Thank you kindly sir, which I guess means if I want to buy MCTY I will have to release some more funds, rather then sell BVS

amberjane - 11 Jun 2004 12:49 - 63 of 87

BigAl - see you got me into trouble last night...and I was only trying to be truthful!*? Shame u live so far away, I want to learn that intraday stuffy....

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 13:05 - 64 of 87

very quite day,when the market goes sideways you cant make money :-(

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 13:06 - 65 of 87

looking for a long on BDEV when the spread narrows!!!

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 13:16 - 66 of 87

amberjane - LOL

As regards intraday, all you can do is watch others or get on a course. If you're interested it might be worth hanging around the Traders' Room threads.

MB - nothing sideways here m8.

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 13:20 - 67 of 87

Al when r u away again on the rigs??

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 13:26 - 68 of 87

MB - funnily enough, boss jusr rang and said maybe US in a week or so.

Closed RR. short +5. ;-) Getting a bit sideways and weekend approaches. Donw well for a couple of days.

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 14:26 - 69 of 87

Finally CTM is dropping. Theres been a 15000 & 25000 buy @ 86 that kept getting replaced everytime it was filled. No more...... hence the drop

seawallwalker - 11 Jun 2004 14:28 - 70 of 87

LW why are you wanting it to drop?

Afternoon all

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 14:47 - 71 of 87

seawallwalker,

LW is short on the stock and i have a long on it so it is good for here and bad for me:-)at the moment...

i am holding for the long haul all 20K of them :-)

Mega...

seawallwalker - 11 Jun 2004 14:55 - 72 of 87

Thanks MB

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 14:59 - 73 of 87

sww,no problem !!!

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 15:02 - 74 of 87

I'm currently trading very short term with CTM. With the market uncertain about direction I'm looking to short on my CFD portfolio. When I think it'll go back up I'll get out and find something else to short.

seawallwalker - 11 Jun 2004 15:09 - 75 of 87

Understood.

Probably time I had a look at CFD's.

I appreciate the explanations which have cleared the fog.

RTO for me just now at 150. I am going in against the broker recommendations for a long. Loads of volume and gradual rise.

They look vulnerable to a buy out or takeover just lately.

Same deal with bb. but I want to buy in at less than 280.

hawick - 11 Jun 2004 15:12 - 76 of 87

TND edging up for fifth day running. Wonderful chart.

seawallwalker - 11 Jun 2004 15:36 - 77 of 87

RTO 6 million buys in ordinary trades in 10 minutes!!

Big Al - 11 Jun 2004 15:50 - 78 of 87

Been tidying a few things ahead of the weekend especially as some of the little fellas moved so sharply.

Remain long AZM and JKX, both looking healthy.

Had my best week in eons so well chuffed. SEAQ's finally woke up and managed to get long a few early and make decent amounts. Blue day every day = very blue week.

Got to head off for the last hour so have a good weekend all.

Al
;-)

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 16:18 - 79 of 87

What ever happened to the late afternoon trading. Looks like only watchers and
not traders are around.

stockbunny - 11 Jun 2004 16:23 - 80 of 87

Don't blink or you might miss a highlight moment of the day (lol)

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 16:24 - 81 of 87

tell me about it!

jj50 - 11 Jun 2004 16:42 - 82 of 87

Afternoon all. Had to be out today so just checking in to wish all a good week-end. Good to see my ASC and DOM had done well while out - perhaps I should use the tactic more often.

Yes, Big Al been blue all week too.

Hawick, that one is a boy - just one more year after this tg.

Have a good week-end everybody.

zarif - 11 Jun 2004 16:49 - 83 of 87

Hi again gang.
Big al -yep keep looking at hilarys fx thread.very informative.

Capital spreads is closed now for RR funeral.

off to a meeting by Hargreaves lansdowne and Tips something at 18.30.Will attend as it is being held in our town.

have a good weekend

rgds
zarif

little woman - 11 Jun 2004 16:51 - 84 of 87

Thats all for today - clear blue skys outside. Just got to post the leaderboard
for the FTSE comp and then I can turn off the computer.

Have a good weekend everyone.

stockbunny - 11 Jun 2004 16:53 - 85 of 87

You too!

Mega Bucks - 11 Jun 2004 16:58 - 86 of 87

Have a great weekend all,and dont get to drunk will you :-)

Martini - 11 Jun 2004 17:15 - 87 of 87

Have a good weekend all

Football for me.

Regards
M
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