Martini
- 13 Jun 2004 14:28
 |
Calendar: United
Kingdom |
 |
United States |
 |
Europe & World |
Interims
CPC : Capcon Holdings Finals
CAR : Carclo
CRE : Creston
HHR : Helphire Group
MJW : Majestic Wine
MYW : Merrydown
RST : Radstone Technology
TDM : 3DM Worldwide
WKP : Workspace Group Economics
UK PPI (0930 BST) |
Company
Falcon Products (FCP)
M&T Bank Corp (MTB)
Metal Management Inc (MTLM)
Optical Cable Corp. (OCCF)
Quiksilver Inc. (ZQK)
Riverstone Networks Inc.
Standard Microsystems Corp. (SMSC)
Stuart Energy Systems (C$)
URS Corp. (URS)
Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN)
Williams Industries (WMSI)Economic
1.30 pm BST Retail Sales
1.30 pm BST Retail Sales ex-auto
7.00 pm BST Treasury Budget |
EconomicAwaiting data |
Martini
- 13 Jun 2004 14:28
- 2 of 46
 |
Calendar:
14th - 18th June United Kingdom |
 |
United
States |
 |
Europe
& World |
Interims
CPC : Capcon Holdings Finals
CAR : Carclo
CRE : Creston
HHR : Helphire Group
MJW : Majestic Wine
MYW : Merrydown
RST : Radstone Technology
TDM : 3DM Worldwide
WKP : Workspace Group Economics
UK PPI (0930 BST) |
Company
Falcon Products (FCP)
M&T Bank Corp (MTB)
Metal Management Inc (MTLM)
Optical Cable Corp. (OCCF)
Quiksilver Inc. (ZQK)
Riverstone Networks Inc.
Standard Microsystems Corp. (SMSC)
Stuart Energy Systems (C$)
URS Corp. (URS)
Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN)
Williams Industries (WMSI)Economic
1.30 pm BST Retail Sales
1.30 pm BST Retail Sales ex-auto
7.00 pm BST Treasury Budget |
EconomicAwaiting data |
Interims
AWI : Award International Holdings
CIV : Civica
GRI : Grainger Trust Finals
AGP : AIT Group
GSD : Goldshield Group
PHY : PHS Group
VED : Vedanta Resources
VP. : VP AGM / EGM
HOF : House of Fraser
PFL : Premier Farnell
WTB : Whitbread Economics
UK May CPI (0930 BST) |
CompanyCellstar (CLST)
Circuit City Stores Inc (CC)
FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS)
Herley Industries Inc. (HRLY)
Landec Corp (LNDC)
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH)
Oracle Corp. (ORCL)
Pier 1 Imports (PIR)
Vermont Pure Holdings Ltd. (VPS)
Economic
1.30 pm BST Business Inventories
1.30 pm BST Core CPI
1.30 pm BST CPI
1.30 pm BST NY Empire State Index |
Economic
Awaiting data |
Finals
OSH : Oasis Healthcare
WDSW : Wyndeham Press Group AGM / EGM
ANW : Aberdeen New Thai
PNS : Panther Securities
SSL : SSL International
EconomicUK May/April labour
market report (0930 BST) |
Company
Bear Stearns Companies Inc (BSC)
Best Buy Co. (BBY)
Culp Inc. (CFI)
Cytokinetics Inc (CYTK)
Ennis Business Forms Inc. (EBF)
IDT Corp (IDT/C)
Jabil Circuit Inc (JBL)
John Wiley & Sons Inc (JWA)
KB Home (KBH)
Lennar Corp. (LEN)
Medical Technology Systems (MPP)
Mobile Telesystems (MBT)
Progress Software Corp (PRGS)
Somanetics Corp (SMTS)Economic1.30 pm BST Building Permits
1.30 pm BST Housing Starts
2.15 pm BST Capacity Utilization
2.15 pm BST Industrial Production
7.00 pm BST Fed's Beige Book |
Economic
Awaiting data |
Interim
Ex Dividend:
BNKR : Bankers IT - 2(p), BSET : British Assets Trust -
1.3(p), DWN : Dawson Holdings - 2.8(p), LSB : London
Scottish Bank - 1.7(p), ROM : Romag Holdings - 0.25(p) ,
SMJ : Smart (J.) & Co (Contractors) - 2.9(p) ULT :
Ultrasis PLC - 3(p)Final Ex Dividend:
ACL : Acal - 14(p), BKIR : Bank of Ireland (Gov) -
20.96(p), BWNG : Brown (N) Group - 4.1(p) , CNA :
Centrica - 3.7(p) ,CPL : Chapelthorpe - 0.7(p), HLCL :
Helical Bar - 10(p), III : 3i Group - 8.9(p), KESA : Kesa
Electricals - 7.5(p), LIO : Liontrust Asset Management -
6.75(p), LMSO : London Merchant Securities - 4.4(p) , MEG
: Mice Group - 1.3(p) , MRV : Murray VCT2 - 2.5(p) , MTC
: Mothercare - 4(p) , MUV : Murray VCT4 - 1.2(p) , MYV :
Murray VCT3 - 2(p) , , , CP : RIT Capital Partners -
3.1(p) , SVT : Severn Trent - 29.3(p) , TEF : Telford
Homes - 3(p) , VIN : Value & Income Trust - 3(p) ,
WCW : Walker Crips Weddle Becks - 3(p) , YNGA : Young
& Co's Brewery - 11.65(p) |
Interims
AWI : Award International Holdings
GHH : Gooch & Housego FinalsAAT : AEA Technology
MCKS : McKay Securities AGM / EGM
ALY : Ashley (Laura) Hldgs
SER : Sefton Resources
SLNG : Slingsby(H.C)
TBK : Ted Baker
WBY : Westbury Trading Statement
AL. : Alliance & LeicesterEconomic
UK May retail sales (0930 BST) |
Company Actuant (ATU)
ADE Corp. (ADEX)
Adobe Systems Inc (ADBE)
American Healthways Inc (AMHC)
Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY)
CarMax Inc (KMX)
Clarcor Inc (CLC)
Entegris Inc. (ENTG)
Meade Instruments Corp. (MEAD)
Nevada Gold & Casino Inc. (UWN)
Norstan Inc. (NRRD)
Saba Software Inc (SABA)
Smucker (J.M.) Co., The Cl. A (SJM)
SOLECTRON CORP (SLR)
Spectrum Control Inc. (SPEC)
TIBCO (TIBX)
Winnebago Industries Inc. (WGO)Economic
1.30 pm BST Initial Claims
3.00 pm BST Leading Indicators
5:.00 pm BST Philadelphia Fed |
Economic
Awaiting data |
AGM / EGM
CASH : Cardpoint
HCU : Hitachi Capital (UK)
LLOY : Lloyds-TSB
OCN : Ocean Wilson Holdings
PAQ : Property Acquisition & Management
SLH : Shiloh
STT : Straight
TSCO : Tesco Economic
No UK data scheduled |
Company Acuity Brands Inc. (AYI)
AG Edwards Inc. (AGE)
Chattem Inc. (CHTT)
Georgia Gulf Corp. (GGC)
InterVoice Inc. (INTV)
Isle of Capri Casinos, (ISLE)
John Wiley & Sons Inc (JW/A)
Morgan Stanley (MWD)
Shermag Inc. (C$) (SMG)
Steelcase Inc. (SCS)Economic
1.30 pm BST Current Account |
EconomicAwaiting data |
Trading
Thoughts For The Week Ahead - Sunday 13th
June |
This week's guest is The
Playboy who has kindly stepped into
the breach and gives his own thoughts on the week
ahead.
If anyone else would like to be the guest next
week please let us know.
Monday 14 June
Finals Majestic Wine -
Majestic Wine has seen enormous gains through
high like-for-like sales growth from the opening
of new stores. The market is expecting strong
profits growth and is also hoping for a nice
dividend hike. Majestic believes there is still
scope for expanding its concept.Finals Merrydown - The
drinks manufacturer issued a lively trading
statement in January, celebrating the fact that
Shloer, its adult soft drink, was outperforming
its peers. The groups premium cider brand,
Merrydown Vintage, slightly improved in a sector
that is declining. Results should be above
expectations. Tuesday 15 June
AGM House of Fraser - House of
Fraser has engaged in a significant
reconstruction programme for the next three to
four years, which should enable the group to
report strong earnings growth. However, the
dividend has minimal cover and is unlikely to be
increased for several years.Finals PHS Group - The
workplace support services group is expected to
report results in line with management
expectations today, with turnover 18% ahead at
165 million and operating profits of 50
million. PHS has seen particularly strong
performances in its washrooms and dustmat
divisions.Wednesday 16 June
Ex-dividend 3i Group - The
venture capital giant enjoyed a year of strong
performance in 2003, returning 531 million, or
18% of shareholders funds. The dividend was
duly increased from 13.5p to 14p, following three
years of substantial change for 3i, and a year
that saw almost 1 billion of investment.EGM SSL International -
The Durex manufacturer has exchanged conditional
contracts with Regent Medical to sell off its
surgical gloves and antiseptic business, in the
final phase of its transformation into a consumer
products group. Shareholders will be asked to
approve the deal today, which some have
criticised as being too cheap.Thursday 17 JuneInterims Gooch and Housego
- This group is actually a manufacturer of
acousto-optic devices and custom optical
components and investors will be hoping
for signs of growth, which were somewhat lacking
in its last set of finals. But the group claims
to be in an enviable market position, with
several world-leading products.AGM Laura Ashley -
Shareholders will witness the end of an era today
when the last of the Ashley dynasty leaves the
flagging fashion house. Nick Ashley, son of the
late eponymous founder, has decided that he will
leave the board. The group is now largely owned
by Malaysian investors and finding more success
with furniture than fashion.Friday 18 June
EGM Cardpoint - The provider of
electronic payment transactions, is snapping up a
number of cash machines from HBOS. The Board has
conditionally agreed to buy, subject to
shareholder approval, 816 cash machines in
locations away from bank branches for a maximum
of 75 million.AGM Tesco - Todays
meeting should be a fairly upbeat affair as the
management boasts of recent success. However, it
could all turn very ugly when London Animal
Action arrives to protest at the
supermarkets sale of whale and dolphin meat
in their Japanese stores. Shareholders, you have
been warned.
ThoughtsThe FTSE-100 this week has
broken out of the month long trading range of 4395
to 4470 possibly forming a new range of 4520
to 4460.
Clear downtrend resistance off the April high,
May high and June high so far, a break of 4520
could lead to 4570 then the
April highs only if the DOW
stays in its current up trend (see DOW
chart), if not weakness below support at 4460.
On a 5-day chart up trend off Friday low intact
above 4482, downtrend off
Wednesday high at 4492, two key
levels for Monday!
This week is also equity and index options expiry
on Friday, so market possibly held up into the
end of the week?
Have a good weekend - The
Playboy
All the
above comments are purely a personal opinion and
no investment advice is intended. Please do your
own research
|
|
Martini
- 13 Jun 2004 14:28
- 3 of 46
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SUNDAY TIMES
- The M&S/Philip Green bid: the next few weeks will
see how the retailers shareholders can reach
agreement about whether they are better off with or
without Mr Green.
- Easyjet has management credibility problems and a board
director or two may be in for the chop
- Should you buy shares in Paragon - yes
- Motor insurer Cox has a new CEO; maybe he can rebuild
the share price
- Odd that William Hill CEO David Harding has sold almost
his entire stake. |
SUNDAY
TELEGRAPH- Lets see how Marks & Spencer boss
Stuart Rose shapes up when Philip Green puts his cash and
shares on the table; I think 380p a share is nearer the
mark.
- Gordon Brown has taken the fruits of growth and given
them to the disadvantaged without fomenting economic
crisis; but he must move on soon
- Cazenove/Barclays the former wont let
Barclays buy it
Equity View:
- Johnson Mathey buy, Pendragon buy,
Hampson Industries buy, Provalis buy,
Synstar buy, Royal Bank of Scotland
undervalued
Taking Stock with Edmond Jackson:
- One of the classic dilemmas of investing is that
speculative firms attract the most share price activity
- Mitie is sound value; Helical expect profits to
progress back to 20 million;
Sanctuary - continue to avoid but a bidder may appear |
OBSERVER
Throg Street:
- BT to buy now would be folly
- Reuters got to prove it can rebuild; a price war
could be ahead
- Engineer Cookson the shares have had a good run
but no longer offer value
- The Cable & Wireless chairman isnt getting on
too well with its CEO so rumour has it. They both have
different visions of the future
- Interview with new ProShare boss Michelle Doughty
- Interview with IBM boss, Sir Michael Bishop |
MAIL
ON SUNDAY
Lisa Buckingham:
- M&S shareholders must ask if their cash would be
better invested elsewhere than with sticking with Stuart
Rose
- Sir Chris Gent undoubtedly has the ability to help
steer GlaxoSmithKline through difficult times. How
unfortunate that he looks somewhat tainted by his
farewell package from Vodafone
Midas:
- Just sit back and enjoy Belhavens record growth
Taking Stock:
- At the International Monetary Conference last week
Lloyds TSB chairman and Barclays boss warned that
unless UK banks were allowed to get together they would
be vulnerable to foreign predators |
THE BUSINESS
- The Daily Mirror/City Slickers Case the DTI has
been too slow investigating this one
- Without the massive clout that Time Warner and Disney
can throw behind a film, surviving will be a struggle for
up-for-sale MGM
Inside the Market:
- Speedy Hire buy. Knowledge Technology Solutions
remains speculative |
SUNDAY EXPRESS
- Stuart Rose at M&S has orchestrated a virtual
takeover in a very short time. But expect Philip
Green to make a better bid proposal this week
- Can Luqman Arnold get Abbey out of the woods? He may
just be the man to pull it off
THE SUNDAY EXPRESS
- Stuart Rose at M&S has orchestrated a virtual
takeover in a very short time. But expect Philip
Green to make a better bid proposal this week
- Can Luqman Arnold get Abbey out of the woods? He may
just be the man to pull it off |
INDEPENDENT
- Marks & Spencers Stuart Rose is preparing to
ditch LifeStore and this could enhance his chances of
shutting up Philip Green
- Easyjet chairman Sir Colin Chandler says there will be
no board changes. The screams from the airline's
shareholders may change that
- Vodafone has all but ruled out its option to make
Verizon Communications buy its stake in Verizon Wireless.
Shareholders may take a different view
- Analysis: Stelios Haji-Ioannou. |
INVESTORS
CHRONICLE
Tips:Buy: Buy
Provident Financial (PFG) at 664p - Abbot (ABG) at 175p - Carrs Milling (CRM) at 332p - Compass Finance (CAF) at 71p.Sell: Greggs (GRG) at 33.70 - MonsterMob (MOB) at 91.5p |
SHARES MAGAZINE
Plays of the Week:Buy: Quintain Estates (QED) at 420p -NetBenefit (NBT) at 56.5p - Dmatek (DTK) at 81.5p |
Martini
- 13 Jun 2004 14:28
- 4 of 46
Many thanks to The Playboy for being this weeks Thoughter.
After the long weekend in the US things should bet back to normal Monday.
I have been chatting to Bullshare and saying there most be an easier way to get the basics of this together and he has had the guys have a look at what can be done.
I will get it shown to you folks for comment before changing the current format.
Please let me know if I have made any major mistakes in the information.
I can now go read the papers and potter in the garden
Good Hunting next week
Pottering of Oxon
stockbunny
- 13 Jun 2004 14:45
- 5 of 46
Much thanks Martini for the above and to Playboy for thoughts - interesting
stuff. Martini I am sure the decimal point is in the wrong place for
the divi on SVT on the ex-div section above.
Enjoy your pottering!!!
Martini
- 13 Jun 2004 15:04
- 6 of 46
stockbunny
Thanks - I have changed it
Best Regards
M
supervisor
- 13 Jun 2004 15:47
- 7 of 46
Many thanks martini and playboy,find this a must read on a sunday so thanks again.jen
extrovert
- 13 Jun 2004 17:13
- 8 of 46
yep, many thanks to martini, playboy and everyone concerned who provide good information
extro
jj50
- 13 Jun 2004 18:48
- 9 of 46
Evening all. Special thanks to Martini and the Playboy for all the info. Hope you had some time left to enjoy the weather Martini. Regards j
Big Al
- 13 Jun 2004 22:43
- 10 of 46
Evening all.
Have done very little research up to this point, but do tend to concur with TP. Still not sure the US has made enough headway to confirm the break of the flag, but some "goodbye Ronnie" feelgood stuff tomorrow may well see the job done.
Currently carrying longs on JKX and AZM. Got a couple of other targets to hit early tomorrow if I see any follow-through. However, Monday is never my best day and got a couple of things to sort out so might not be as active.
Have a good week.
Al
;-)
Mega Bucks
- 14 Jun 2004 06:51
- 11 of 46
morning campers.
zarif
- 14 Jun 2004 06:53
- 12 of 46
morning all.
Lot of early birds today. PB thanks for your thoghts.
rgds
zarif
ThePlayboy
- 14 Jun 2004 07:13
- 13 of 46
Many thanks for the thanks, will hopefully prove accurate if not useful:)
roma
- 14 Jun 2004 07:36
- 14 of 46
Morning all
Insider trader
- 14 Jun 2004 07:43
- 15 of 46
Morning all.
jj50
- 14 Jun 2004 07:52
- 16 of 46
morning all
Fundamentalist
- 14 Jun 2004 08:15
- 17 of 46
mornin all
Big Al
- 14 Jun 2004 09:01
- 18 of 46
Morning.
Missed a couple of early movers, but trigger finger never good on Mondays! ;-)
Have a good day.
Douggie
- 14 Jun 2004 09:12
- 19 of 46
mornin all
Big Al
- 14 Jun 2004 09:15
- 20 of 46
Long MRS 237
jj50
- 14 Jun 2004 09:19
- 21 of 46
Big Al - you'll have to work out a warm up programme for that trigger finger! In reply to earlier question, I was away in April. See BHG small rise again today, I like to support the local product!
Have a good day.
Big Al
- 14 Jun 2004 09:32
- 22 of 46
jj - tell me about it! ;-)
MRS going well though, so happy there.
Melnibone
- 14 Jun 2004 09:39
- 23 of 46
Morning all,
Been catching up after that long weekend break.
This thread's really taken off now, took ages to read
Thur/Fri threads.
Need to tune back in after the break. At first glance, the
Ftse has finally closed the gap open from last Monday and
Asia has took the US futures down and Europe has followed it.
So I've took the profit on the Nas100 short whilst I try and
sort out what's going on. Will open it again if US shows
weakness or closes the gap down open and starts to drop again.
Just 2 Ftse Mid-caps longer term longs open at the moment.
Small positions that seem to be going nowhere at the moment.
Nothing to get excited about, either way.
Melnibone.
hawick
- 14 Jun 2004 10:23
- 24 of 46
Morning! DNX continuing to firm in nice uptrend. Target 320p initially then a bigger breakout possible.
Fundamentalist
- 14 Jun 2004 10:42
- 25 of 46
Hawick
Nice to see! Hopefully the long term trading range has now been broken and it will be upwards from here. I am holding these for the long term (i thought i was the only one interested in these on this board) - the fundamentals are strong - some good drilling news would be nice!
hawick
- 14 Jun 2004 11:19
- 26 of 46
You probably know fundamentalist already, LSE ran an article last week saying:
As well as upgrading Cairn to buy, Teather has raised Melrose Resources, Venture Production and Burren Energy to buy and Dana Petroleum to a strong buy.
It believes Dana's exploration programme could add 100p to the share price, which closed up 3 1/2p at 282 1/2p yesterday.
jj50
- 14 Jun 2004 11:36
- 27 of 46
DNX is one of my long term holdings.
MRS going up nicely, Big Al will be happy.
Fundamentalist
- 14 Jun 2004 11:39
- 28 of 46
Hawick
thanks, yes i did see that. all good news.
Fundamentalist
- 14 Jun 2004 11:40
- 29 of 46
jj50 - good to see all the DNX holders coming out!
Big Al
- 14 Jun 2004 11:42
- 30 of 46
jj - just a bit!! ;-))
JKX might be another to conisder in the oil portfolio.
Big Al
- 14 Jun 2004 12:22
- 31 of 46
Went long PLR on the earlier drop.
Loads of volume now with some rather massive trades. Not sure what's going on, but happy as long as 120p holds pretty well.
MRS got a shake on.
Fundamentalist
- 14 Jun 2004 12:57
- 33 of 46
Anyone follow Torotrak and know why it is up 10%+ today - is there leak of a deal at long last? Cant find any news anywhere.
Aslo, Melnibone, do you still follow SKP. Up 5% today on good volume. Strikes me as too much of a rise just for a broker upgrade. Is the final deal coming?
Big Al
- 14 Jun 2004 13:19
- 34 of 46
Stuck ROK in the ISA before it popped. When it moves, it moves.
jj50
- 14 Jun 2004 13:26
- 35 of 46
Just happy to see SKP rising - thought it was because they expect to license their pulmonary franchise in the near future. Dresdner gave a figure of 94p.
zarif
- 14 Jun 2004 14:15
- 36 of 46
Hello campers:
Went to a meeting organised by Hargreaves Lansdowne at chester on Friday.The speakers were from t1ps -Tom Winnifrith,Monisha Varadan and Zak Mir.
Monisha talked about the ofex market -the pros and cons etc. It was quite informative.
Zak Mir -talked about technical analysis and was basically touting for anyone to subscribe to his Ta site. Offered a freebie for month to evaluate his site.I have done nothing as yet.
Tom Winnifith -talked (should say mumbled)about long term investing.He was the most boring and quite frankly dont know what he was on(either sozzled or spaced out).Didnot rank him at all. I think their company must be in dire straits to say the least. (not hargreaves landsdowne)
rgds
zarif
Fundamentalist
- 14 Jun 2004 14:28
- 37 of 46
The SKP pulmonary deal is approx 6 months overdue already. The sooner it happens, the sooner we can get a proper profit estimate for the next 2 years and get a fair value on the share price. I dont believe the broker upgrade would move the price as much (they havent before) hence was wondering if the deal news is being leaked. Be interesting to see what happens when the US opens
daves dazzlers
- 14 Jun 2004 14:29
- 38 of 46
zarif ,,there only intrested in your money.take people that pay 500,plus for a weekend course thay need sectioning for there own good ,28 days min .
zarif
- 14 Jun 2004 14:34
- 39 of 46
daves dazzlers:
Agree with you entirely.The only reason i went was bcoz the markets US were cloed on friday and it was a freebie and in my town so nothing to lose.
rgds
zarif
Fundamentalist
- 14 Jun 2004 14:49
- 40 of 46
Zarif
A similar view to yours was given on the SIPP/ISA thread in the traders room!!!!
Melnibone
- 14 Jun 2004 14:52
- 41 of 46
Hi Fundamentalist,
Took my SKP profit when the Market decided to raise it 5% today.
I only short-term trade it, not LTBH it, so it's cue time for
a big bounce for you, now that I've sold. ;-)
Here's hoping for you.
Melnibone.
Fundamentalist
- 14 Jun 2004 15:14
- 42 of 46
I thought you may have taken profit today. Heres hoping they finally announce the pulmonary deal - otherwise the next news is likely to be the half year results.
Melnibone
- 14 Jun 2004 15:54
- 43 of 46
SKP needs an announcement to break that trend channel from
the end of November.
Today's bounce petered out at the previous high close, Macd looks
like it's about to roll over, 20Ma has reached the 40Ma.
I won't short this stock, as one bit of good news or a takeover
rumour will send it soaring. But I'm chary of holding it when it
reaches a previous high or the top of the trend channel.
Only ever buy it on support and take the bounce profit.
I'll never buy it in no-mans land between support and resistance.
Melnibone.
zarif
- 14 Jun 2004 16:37
- 44 of 46
below is the copy og Tom Hougards email that i recieve
Good morning
I have been thinking long and hard over the state of the market over the last 72 hours. Friday was not a trading day so I sat and looked over the charts to try and get an idea of what Wall Street is thinking. I looked over all the cycles I know of and all the data I have collected over the years.
The conclusion is that I dont know!
I agree I can do better than that, so allow me to run you through my thought process.
The SP500 peaked in March 2000 at 1554. This marked the end of the bull market as we know it and a two year bear market ensued. The bear market ended on a lovely harmonic cycle on the 10th October 2002. On that day the SP500 registered a 50% loss from the all-time high. This of course is a classical bear market characteristic.
Since then the market has rallied relentlessly and over the summer of 2003 had the ability to make my life miserable. I was calling for a top at this stage and lost out on some of the rally from 9200 to 9600. I got the top of the 19th February 2004. I am particular pleased with that call because it cemented in my mind the hidden beauty in the markets. On that day the cycle came in perfectly. On the same day the SP500 had regained 50% of what it had lost in the bear market decline. That is also a classic bear market characteristic.
Since the high on the 19th February we have made a lower high in early April. We made a perfect low at 1075 (it was a perfect low because it saw the market make an equal wave retracement) and have since rallied back up to the 1140 area.
I use several different kinds of forecasting tools. Some are based on natural cycles, some are based on Fibonacci cycles, and some are based on planetary cycles. So far this year they have been accurate in picking highs and lows.
The Fibonacci Spiral that I have shown repeatedly over the last 3 months on this email has been a very good indicator of the market turns. The most remarkable cluster of dates is coming in at the end of the month of June. There will be a very significant turn coming towards the end of the month. I am pretty sure about that.
I have solved most of the month for the Market Map. The turns look like we will see lower prices for the coming week, but then the cycles turn hard up again. As it is incredibly time consuming to solve for more than a few days at a time I will have to make due with two weeks of forecast.
The conclusion from a cycle point of view is that a major turn in the stock market is coming. I favour it to be a low for a reason I may not have mentioned before. We are in an election year in the US. The typical pattern of the election year is lower prices into the June/July period and then higher into November. So far the market is setting up perfectly for this pattern.
Of course it does not stop there. Have you ever heard of the Bradley astrological model? It is usually very accurate and has been over the last 4 years. This model goes straight down for the rest of the year with very few rallies at all.
Unfortunately I could go on and on, presenting diverse signals. It does not serve your purpose and I certainly dont want to waste your time. I will keep you updated on the cycles as they appear. I have 3 4 mentors who together have more than 150 years of trading and forecasting experience. Two of them are saying up and two of them are saying down. How is that for mentoring? J
The conclusion is that I can see the see bullish potential and I can see the bearish potential. It is very easy to see the bearish potential when you pull out your charts for the financial companies. They have had a 15% correction over the last couple of months and are trying to base. Keep an eye on them because they will give you the clue of the direction of the market. I am talking about stocks like Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Citi Group, and JPM to mention a few. I will short weakness in these stocks but not strength as they could be basing here for another leg up.
This week is the expiration week. The trend set in expiration is statistically significant in the sense that a negative expiration usually means more selling in the week after. I am watching the market right now and will short below 1130 in the SP500 with a stop above 1133. This is not advice in any shape or form. This is what I am doing. You must make your own conclusions. Tuesday should offer another opportunity to short the market as Wednesday should see more weakness.
I think I will leave it for now. My final advice (although I dont give advice per se) is that a move is coming. It will be a significant move and you really should try to make an effort on board. Right now it is looking like a bearish move. For those of you who know about my mirror image chart, you will know the importance of the last rally last week. This was all factored into this chart and from here onwards it is a one way street into the abyss.
Stay on your toes ladies and gentlemen. I can almost guarantee that the rest of the month will be exciting.
Tom
Big Al
- 14 Jun 2004 16:52
- 45 of 46
Had to go out for most of the afternoon, but got back just in time to see the last wee while.
Find myself sitting on 3 longs, all oil stocks - JKX, MRS, PLR.
Thanks to MRS I've had another nice blue day, although the pullback has cut into profits a bit. Seems quite a bit selling in the auction on some SETSmm's I monitor, but anything can happen with our US cousins.
Sorry a few have not had it so easy today. Never the best way to start a week as you often think you have to chase and get it back. Market looks weak, so will be looking for short candidates later I suppose.
Have a good evening all.