ahhhhhhhhhhhhh, my real name in use again

ah ha

remember this is the investors room mick

?

never mind..its not any more

19 Jul 2004 08:56 GMT


BULLET: DOLLAR-SWISS: IMM data indicates speculative longs...
DOLLAR-SWISS: IMM data indicates speculative longs have built to multi-year highs, which could leave the Swissy vulnerable to retracement. US investment account sellers weighed on dollar-Swiss in earlier trade and bids are noted at Chf1.2220. Stops said to have built at Chf1.2185 under the market. Initial offers currently under pressure at Chf1.2285/00.

Provided by: Market News International

Hi mick, moonie. How long will this thread last until the grissle comes?
Best to keep mum.

SNS

alright there.see everyone's camped out here

Hi IT,

Hopefully a loooong time, I need to swap ideas, talk stuff. I will not be shouting about us being here.

19 Jul 2004 10:03 GMT


London high street spending falls in June
LONDON (AFX) - High street spending in London eased in June, affected by poor weather and the tube strike during the month, according to a survey released by the London Retail Consortium.

Compared with the same month a year ago, sales dropped by 0.5 pct on a like-for like basis, which excludes the impact of new stores or additional retail space.

The three-month comparison was even more depressing, with just a 2.5 pct rise in the second quarter, well down on the 5.4 pct increase registered in the three months to May.

The capital fared worse than the rest of the country, but comparisons were distorted by 2003 figures where sales in London rose strongly while the rest of the UK saw a more modest gain.

For the UK as a whole, like-for-like sales rose by 2.4 pct in June from a year ago while on a three-month basis, sales rose by 2.7 pct in June from 2.2 pct in May.

ss/bam

No worries mick, keep the data flowing....



- Market cannot make use of good news yet again, starts yet lower.
- Consumer prices rise more slowly, capping a week indicating the economy is already starting back up.
- SP500 cracks through 200 day MA, NASDAQ dives lower.
- Techs in full retreat, following SOX lower, pulling large cap indexes with it.
Market squanders last rally attempt of the week as stocks turn and dive lower.

It was a week where the market was poised to rebound, but as it has the past three weeks, it frittered away each attempt. Sessions would start stronger with new promise on some decent earnings reports, but then it would fade to the close as buyers shot their ammunition early and had no reserves to take their place. Classic bearish intraday action underscoring the market weakness as one bounce attempt after another failed.

The weakness was most evident in technology and semiconductors, though by the close even the smaller caps that had held their gains most of the session reversed and posted losses between techs and large caps. Dell upped its Q3 guidance, but that was not enough to hold early gains. Retail, a strong performer even with WMT in the tank, has started to erode and was down harder Friday on fears the consumer would run out of steam just as it appears the economy is starting to emerge from its short slow spot. IBM was a stark example of technologys struggle, having posted a solid earnings report that gapped the stock higher only to relinquish nearly all of the gain on a strong volume surge.

That was typical action for most stocks Friday although there were still pockets of strength, e.g., small financials (savings and loans, regional banks), defense and energy. The small financials are something of a surprise. As we have noted before, however, energy does not provide the kind of leadership that pulls the market higher. Energy tends to feed off of things that make the market weaker, in this case higher energy costs. When you leadership group thrives due to conditions that sap the rest of the market, that is not great. If the market had more leaders like that it would have fewer leaders like that.

It was another day with the same old pattern for the week (up early, down late), but it had a twist. SP500 broke below its 200 day SMA and NASDAQ blew out the next support level. The downside door was opened further with the SP500s weakness, but at the same time the further selling, particularly the SP500 undercut of the 200 day, sets up a rebound to test the breach. The question on these moves is whether it unleashes a lot of short covering and buying that reverses the downtrend or if it is just a relief bounce. Thus far the market has shown no inclination for the former as it has squandered several set ups to make the move higher.

THE ECONOMY

June consumer prices rise below expectations.

Overall prices rose 0.3%, just over the 0.2% expected (0.6% in May). Year over year that was a 3.3% gain, the largest gain since May 2001. The core rose just 0.1% versus 0.2% expected, and that was the slowest rise in 2004. Year over year core prices rose 1.9%. The Fed had discussed transitory factors influencing inflation higher thus far this year (namely energy), and stripping out food and energy the lower core indicates that is the case. Energy rose 2.6%, down from 4.6% in May. Food prices climbed 0.2%, but that was down from Mays 0.9% gain. Thus the elements stripped from the core showed slower growth, and when taken from the core it was still slower. That means that prices for everything in the core rose at a slower pace even more than the prices for energy and food. In sum, prices are still rising, but the big spike in price pressure is abating or has abated.

This always raises the issue as to whether the governments statistics accurately reflect prices consumers are paying. Education is notably left out of the calculation, and we all know that education costs rise semester after semester. Still, the prices being measured are constant, i.e., the group is not changed, Thus those prices being measured, regardless of whether they leave out some key areas, still show the relative change in those items month to month. Unless the numbers are out and out being cooked, they show the price trends of those items included in the report.

China GDP rises at a slower pace.

Similar to US consumer prices, Chinas GDP rose a sizzling 9.6% for Q2, but that was below expectations of a 9.8% gain and down from the 10% in Q1. Incredible growth, but it is being slowed by the government tightening the lending parameters. This is the start of the soft landing China and the rest of the world has been talking about. Gee, they also called the US stock market crash in 2000 and the plunge in GDP from 7% growth to negative a soft landing. Ask those thousands and thousands of companies that were crushed on the rocks as the economy plunged as well as the millions who lost their jobs and big chunks of their retirements about soft landings. Whenever the government starts tinkering with an economy, there is reason to fear. Todays soft landing is tomorrows tailspin out of control.

That is an overstatement at this point, but it is worth remembering that the US economy was considered too strong by the rest of the world and the Fed was pretty much forced to hike rates by peer pressure. Once it started on that path it did not know when to quit. Further, the economy was already showing wear and tear that the Fed ignored as it continued to raise rates. Just something to note as the months unfold.

Economic articles still talking of slowdown, but the real slowdown is a ways off.

A perusal of weekend reports on the economy still lean heavily on the idea that the consumer is slowing along with the rest of the economy. As is usual the stories lag the real events, mirroring the reports that are already history as opposed to focusing on the leading indications. The regional reports from New York and Philadelphia were huge with respect to the size and breadth of their gains. We note that they were the leading indicators of the slowdown in the economy, starting to fall off in May before the other areas slowed. Now they are revving up again. This is how it happened with the overall economy as well when it was coming out of the long decline: the regional reports started showing life. A few months after they turned to expansion the overall economy did the same. They are very good leading indicators.

That does not mean that the economy is ready to bolt higher again with 7% growth. It is a resumption of steady growth. The real kicker in growth will come in Q4 as the last of the tax incentives are taken advantage of. That will jump Q4 up to a handsome level. It wont carry that pace over into 2005 because there wont be the push to invest before a deadline. After that you have an expansion that is going on 26 months (measured by the October 2002 market bottom, the true measure). It will still have more ahead of it, but at that point we have to look at the new administrations economic policies as well as control of the Congress to see if the administration will have the ability to get anything passed. Even with no action, however, many key tax cuts will start to sunset, and that will have an adverse effect upon continued growth.

THE MARKET

The market could not respond positively to good news, at least not after the first few minutes of the session. Dells raised guidance, IBMs solid earnings, a slow CPI all gave rise to a better pre-market and open. Once again, however, stocks responded to decent news with a reversal as not enough buyers came in to support the move. Once again sellers jumped on late after the buyers packed up their wallets. Volume rose as the selling increased, NASDAQ dove toward the May lows in its trading range, and SP500 undercut its 200 day SMA. Classically weak action intraday and on a macro basis as well.

Market Sentiment

VIX: 14.34; -0.37
VXN: 20.94; -0.74
VXO: 15.35; -0.38

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.12; +0.29. The third close over 1.0 in two weeks. A couple more of these will swing sentiment enough to help foster a bounce. There is more hedging going on as well as downside speculation as seen in our discussion of the NYSE short interest Thursday night. The market is starting to get oversold enough to bounce, but as of yet has squandered all of its recent opportunities to do so.

NASDAQ

Had the impetus to rally with Dells news, but an early gap higher was over before it started and the selling as well as volume expanded as stocks dove in the last hour.

Stats: -29.56 points (-1.55%) to close at 1883.15
Volume: 1.792B (+7.08%). Third above average volume session in a row, and two of them on rising volume, indicating the big money was selling their shares, the fifth such instance in just this month. This type of selling begets more selling, heading toward a showdown with the May low. We do have to consider it was expiration Friday, and that pushes up volume.

Up Volume: 264M (-497M)
Down Volume: 1.512B (+654M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.26 to 1. With chips on the plunge as well, breadth was pretty ugly.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1 to 1

New Highs: 41 (+7)
New Lows: 161 (+47)

Another gap higher on some once again good news was given back, this time hard with selling volume. It was expiration, but volume accelerated late in the session as the selling worsened, a clear sign of distribution. NASDAQ is heading toward the May low (1876 closing, 1865 intraday), and with the strong selling volume it looks ready to undercut the trading range/base for the year. That opens the door toward 1775, the October 2002/March 2003 up trendline or 1755, some July 2003 highs. Before that happens it will rebound in a relief bounce if indeed it does not reverse and climb back up in the base. After undercutting the May low the index, already oversold, will be well oversold. Many bets on a further fall will be placed given the break below the low. That often sparks the rebound as those that are going to sell have done so on the breach, and speculate on more downside. At that point the sellers are at least temporarily sated and start covering. That helps are rebound move get started.

QQQ is in full retest toward the March and May low at 34. That level is pretty solid support and will tell us a lot about how the overall index is going to react.

S&P 500/NYSE

After DJ30 cracked its 200 day SMA last week, SP500 wasted little time in doing the same on some rising volume.

Stats: -5.3 points (-0.48%) to close at 1101.39
NYSE Volume: 1.447B (+2.95%). Volume was up and above average again as the large caps slightly undercut the 200 day SMA. Rising volume breaches are particularly noteworthy as a large number of institutional investors are taking part in the selling. If it does not recover rather quickly it typically leads to more selling as the 200 day is what we call support of last resort.

Up Volume: 554M (-3M)
Down Volume: 882M (+49M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.11 to 1. Was much stronger while the small and mid-caps were sporting gains.
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.18 to 1

New Highs: 145 (+34)
New Lows: 52 (+8)

SP500 tried to hold the 200 day SMA (1103), checking up at that level in the last hour but ultimately unable to hold it as the selling expanding near the close. It was not much of an undercut at this stage, but it needs to make a quick recovery. When institutions sell through the 200 day SMA (evidenced by rising, above average volume selling), that spells even further trouble for stocks as the big money is getting rid of them, not even wanting to hold them at this low level. SP500 is still easily above its March low near 1090 and its May low at 1080 to 1075. If there is no quick recovery of the 200 day then it is open to sell down to 1075 where there is also some December 2003 support from a consolidation.

We suspect that there will be more selling, perhaps on sharp volume, that takes SP500 toward 1075. It may not make it that far, however, before it is oversold enough to provide a relatively solid relief bounce or even a real turn back up from this selling.

SP600 yet again traded above the 50 day EMA, and yet again failed to hold the move. It sold back to the 50 day SMA, again trading in the narrow range between those to moving averages the past week. Still holding up, but no move to jump into these stocks as they test the key 50 day EMA. Dont see a lot of pressure on the small caps, but we do note they gave up a nice intraday gain and then some.

DJ30

Rallied intraday to recover the 200 day SMA (10,202) but in the repeat of afternoon reversals, it sold off and broke below the recent lows of this month. Under distribution with first INTC and now IBM the index looks ready to test 10,000. indeed, that level seems to be drawing it down as it did in March where it held. It has been unable to move above the 2004 down trendline, and this recent resumption of distribution points toward a test of 10,000, but we anticipate a rebound attempt before it gets to that level, though we do not anticipate that rebound to make much headway.

Stats: -23.38 points (-0.23%) to close at 10139.78
Volume: 267 million shares Friday versus 232 million shares Thursday.

THIS WEEK

A bit light on economic data, and nothing until later in the week. Of course earnings reports will be released at a furious pace, and that will continue to give the market some impetus overlay in addition to the macro concerns about a slowing economy and the election ahead as well as terrorist threats.

The market finished weak with NASDAQ selling hard toward the May low and SP500 undercutting its 200 day SMA. The Monday following expiration is often the reverse direction, particularly if the move is strong. That has not held the past few expirations, however. What we want to see is further selling that takes NASDAQ to the May low (1876 closing, 1865 intraday) and SP500 to further undercut its 200 day toward the March low (1091 closing, 1087 intraday). That would set up a nice point to rebound and it would put the market in an oversold enough and fearful enough condition to do it.

Whether that is just a relief move or has more substance will be seen in how volume responds and how leaders perform. Leaders are coming under pressure one by one, group by group. Friday the internets were hammered on NFLX results. Retailers were hurt by HOTTs announcement about a down quarter ahead. Medical appliances, a heart and soul market leader, was hurt bad by SYKs results and guidance. When leaders stumble, the market has nothing to hold it up. Thus at this stage a rebound has to be viewed as a relief move until proven otherwise.

That is not all that bad, however. The market has been in a trading range, and another crash lower to test or slightly undercut that range would set up another run higher in the range. That gives us upside opportunity, though we have to assume the move is a trading range bounce as opposed to a breakout to a new high. We will look for stocks that are coming off support, testing breakouts, and of course, setting up to breakout as well. Friday the breakouts were in the oil and gas sector, but as the market hits bottom we will be looking at the other areas that have set up quietly even during the selling as well as those stocks coming off of their 50 day EMA and other support to ride a bounce higher.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1883.15
Resistance:
March 2004 lows at 1900
The 10 day EMA at 1936
The 18 day EMA at 1955
The 50 day EMA at 1972
The 2004 down trendline at 1974
The 200 day SMA at 1982
2024 is the June high.
2050 represents some prior price points and has stopped NASDAQ the last three times it has tried that level.

Support:
The May 2004 lows (1876 closing, 1865 intraday).
October 2003 low at 1865.
The October 2002/March 2003 up trendline at 1775.
July 2003 highs at 1755.

S&P 500: Closed at 1101.39
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 1103
The 10 day EMA at 1113
The 50 day EMA at 1121
1125 was key price support.
The March/April down trendline at 1126
1142-1146 are the June highs.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
Next is 1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.

Support:
1096 to 1100
1090 is the March low
May low at 1080 to 1075

Dow: Closed at 10,139.78
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 10,202
The January/April down trendline at 10,265
The 50 day EMA at 10,275
Late April peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high

Support:
March low at 10,007
May low at 9852 intraday, 9906 closing

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations.

July 20
- Housing Starts, June (8:30): 2000K expected and 1967K prior
- Building Permits, June (8:30): 2000K expected and 2097K prior

July 22
- Initial Jobless Claims, 07/16 (8:30):

July 22
- Leading Economic Indicators, June (10:00): 0.3% expected and 0.5% prior

19 Jul 2004 10:11 GMT


+Kraft Foods 2Q EPS 41c Vs 55c>KFT

19 Jul 2004 10:13 GMT


*Kraft:To Increase Prices In Line With Full-Year Plan>KFT


19 Jul 2004 10:13 GMT


*Kraft Foods: 2004 EPS $1.55-$1.62 Including Charge>KFT

19 Jul 2004 10:13 GMT


*Kraft: 2Q Also Hurt By Higher Commodity Costs >KFT

Insider trader - i beleive they have moderators here

Australian Dollar Rises to 11-Week High; Bond Yields Lure Funds
July 19 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's dollar rose to an 11-week high against the U.S. currency on speculation the nation's government bond yields will attract investors.

The currency gained 6.5 percent versus the U.S. dollar in a month as yields on Australian two-year bonds rose to 2.69 percentage points more than like-maturity Treasuries. The gap has averaged 1.88 percentage points in the past 15 years. A report Friday showed U.S. inflation is slowing, feeding expectations the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates gradually.

``It is a good environment for the Australian dollar,'' said Johnathan Bayley, in currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington, New Zealand. ``Any expectations of a slightly faster pace of rate tightening by the Fed will be extinguished by the report.''

Australia's dollar climbed to 73.29 U.S. cents as of 5 p.m. in Sydney from 73.23 cents late Friday in New York. It earlier gained to 73.47 cents, the highest since April 28. The currency may rise to 73.80 cents this week, Bayley said.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's target for overnight bank lending is 5.25 percent, versus 1.25 percent in the U.S.

U.S. consumer prices excluding food and energy rose at the year's slowest pace in June.

The U.S. core consumer price index, which omits food and energy costs, increased 0.1 percent in June after a 0.2 percent gain in May. Including food and energy, the 0.3 percent gain was half that of the previous month.

U.S. Inflation

The local dollar may extend a rally against the U.S. currency to a fifth week, Australian & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said, based on a client survey.

The survey Friday of 405 of the bank's Australian corporate and investor customers found 33 percent expect the currency to rise, 40 percent were neutral and 27 percent said it will fall.

``The Australian dollar will regain 80 U.S. cents, if not higher, by year-end,'' said Craig Ferguson, a currency strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking in Melbourne. ``Expectations of Federal Reserve tightening are now being pared back.''

The currency will rise to 74 cents early this week, pausing before a gain to 80 cents toward the year-end, Ferguson said. It rose to a seven-year high of 80.05 cents on Feb. 18.

Australia's dollar will need to break through its first so- called resistance level of 73.67 cents before it can rise to 74 cents, according to Bloomberg technical analysis data. Sell orders are clustered at resistance levels. Two other such levels are 74.11 cents and 75.4 cents.

Bonds Rally

These levels are derived from pivot points that identify areas of potential support and resistance of a currency by using the period's high, low or closing prices.

Australian government bonds rose, sending yields to the lowest in more than three months.

The 6.25 percent bond maturing in April 2015 gained 0.879, or A$8.79 per A$1,000 face amount, to 104.613, pushing the yield down 11 basis points to 5.67 percent. The yield earlier fell to 5.66 percent, the lowest since April 2.

``High-yielders such as the Australian dollar will continue to benefit from the further unwinding of U.S. Fed rate-hike expectations,'' said John Kyriakopoulos, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney.

The currency may rise to 74 U.S. cents, a level that is a 50 percent rebound after a decline from this year's high in February to a low of 68 U.S. cents in June, he said.

Seventy-one percent of the traders, investors and strategists polled on Friday from Tokyo to New York by Bloomberg advised buying or holding the currency against its U.S. counterpart.

Support From Nickel

Gains in the price of nickel will also boost the Australian dollar, ANZ's Ferguson said. Sixty percent of the nation's exports are raw materials.

Nickel, a metal mined in Australia, has rallied more than 40 percent in the past two months. Nickel futures for delivery in three months closed at $14,745 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange on Friday.

``We expect nickel to make new highs above $17,800 in futures,'' Ferguson said. ``If the usual three-year correlation of over 90 percent with the Australian dollar holds, this strongly supports a retest of the highs'' in the currency.

A correlation of 1 would mean the two moved in lock step.

Australia's dollar rose for a seventh day against its New Zealand counterpart and may push higher, according to ABN Amro Holding NV.

The Australian dollar has risen 1 percent against the New Zealand currency since July 8 to NZ1.11135.

`Data Surprises'

``We see a high chance of upside Australian-data surprises,'' currency strategists at ABN Amro, including Paul Mackel in London, wrote on Friday. Australian consumer confidence climbed to a 10- week high and business sentiment rebounded from a one-year low, reports showed last week.

ABN, the largest Dutch bank by assets, said investors should buy a one-month option to purchase the Australian dollar and sell the New Zealand dollar. The option should allow the investor to purchase the Australian dollar at NZ$1.11, ABN said.

Options give holders the right to buy or sell assets at a set date and price. The contracts are generally used to bet on, or guard against, price changes in the underlying assets.

Yes they do moonie, so any nonsense is soon sorted out as a rule.

results 22nd i think

thats good, mfi on my monitor too.......

if results are bad and it hits 110/100...might be some buyers to take it private

Merrill getting TA bearish, must be time to go long.......

19 Jul 2004 11:49 GMT


MARKET TALK: The Charts Are Getting Interesting

Edited by Nathan Barker
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

(call: 201 938 2397; e-mail: nathan.barker@dowjones.com)

MARKET TALK can be found using N/DJMT

7:49 (Dow Jones) The third consecutive lower weekly closes on the major averages inflicts further damage to the recovery, Merrill chartists say. Furthermore, the erosion is threatening intermediate-term S&P 500 levels, such as the 5-week and 30-week exponential moving averages and the often mentioned 200-day simple moving average. A breach would damage the 2003-2004 cyclical bull market, the technical analysts say, and, while such signals would not necessarily ignite outright aggressive selling pressures, they would have to reconsider their view that major indexes could move above current 2004 peaks into year-end. (NPB)

Hi mick, moonie. Is this the place to hang out now? Given up on ADVFN?

You could be right there on MERs view :) I find myself positioning for a bounce. Was short cable and closed of part of it this morning, still a gap to fill around 8660. Long Sept lloy, barc and dax.

Hi Kev, not given up as such, just need somewhere that is dross free. So home is here now.

Ok. AM is definately a more sedate forum than ADVFN. Plenty of good posts without the nutter element. Have'nt posted much on here, tend to read more than reply.

We may be living at one of those "times" when a previously accepted tenet changes:


http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

If you agree then the medium term outlook is poor. It may also point to the next technological advance, needed for the next bull market. Maybe time to look for the next microsoft in Fuel Cell Technology (Ashley J mentioned this sector, along with myself quite some time ago) or some other alternative power / delivery systems, eg hydrogen or a NON combustable power transfer. Time to think outside the box (cold fussion etc)

(and by bull market, I don't mean these bounces in the current bear market)

Here is me ramblings on timings for the long term IF we say that oil causes the next (and largest and last leg down).

oil shock in 04/05, causes mkts to dive (crash is so over-rated, they are rare) to new post 00 lows. 56-5800 dow is me fav. Equities are then considered cheap, oil will meet the newly restructured demand (after the culling process) and we ride a wave of newly (printed)found prosperity to 2012.

Then we crash. Like no crash ever seen before. Destruction of wealth, states, religions, "democracy", real destruction. This downward spiral doesn't happen in 1,2 or 3 years. This takes 70 years to complete. As ever though some will do well, those who control water and those that have non oil based power.

Kondrieff saw it. EW says its got to happen (corrective abc from top of 5?).

So play the mkts till 2012. Then buy land. Arable land. Grow food for your family, barter the rest with other local producers for goods you want. Bury your real gold somewhere safe for your descendants to inherit.

just in case anyone forgot,I is a bear.......

hello kev...i think this is ok ...the moderator might work...no point me posting on advfn with my stalker around my neck

blimey mick p at this rate will need to start looking for a cave to move into,over the next few years

1, 2,

1, 2,

1, 2,

testese testese 1, 2...................3!

short audusd myself..still short euro japper

Update for Friday, July 16, 2004; 5:50 PM, Eastern.


**********************************************
**********************************************

The New York Times asks today, Around the World, Markets Are the Dullest in Years. Is that Good News? Their conclusion is yes, in most cases it usually is good news for the second half of the year (to read the article, go to www.NYTimes.com). Never mind that the author uses very selective data to arrive at his conclusion, we will grant that his points are a good representation of the bullish argument at this juncture in the market. Our view, which you are aware of already through the monthly newsletter, is a bit different. In fact we addressed the very issue of a boring market in the July EWFF (see page 4, section titled, When Stocks Snooze, They Lose). Our conclusion in a nutshell: Lethargy and disinterest are dangerous traits for stock holders, as they are totally at odds with the energy and intense financial focus that carried stocks to the heights they still occupy.

Additional evidence to consider in the bull-bear debate with respect to stock prices pertains to a major theme that weve been stressing since Conquer the Crash first came out in the first quarter of 2002 liquidity matters. The high cross-correlation between disparate markets is one example of how dependant the current environment is on waxing and waning liquidity flows. Liquidity, at its very essence, is a function of social mood. It springs from the well of confidence. A waxing positive social mood appears to correlate with a collective increase in confidence, supportiveness, adventurousness, ebullience and among many other traits, a tendency to expand businesses and take risks. In a rising social mood liquidity expands freely.

A waxing negative social mood manifests itself in a collective increase in discord, exclusion, anger, fear, protectionism and among many other traits, a tendency to reduce business ventures and restrict risk-taking. In a declining social mood liquidity, on average, contracts.

The emergence of a world-wide liquidity problem is slowly starting to trickle to the surface and reflects a turn in confidence from an intermediate-term uptrend since the fall of 2002 to a downtrend starting earlier this year. Throughout 2003 EWFF said the problems would wash ashore from overseas and this progression appears to be unfolding as forecast. Last Friday we discussed the failure of a large Russian bank and the run on the deposits of others. Yesterday a Bloomberg columnist wrote that Default is Becoming a Way of Life in Argentina, as Argentinas Mendoza province has recently defaulted on a large bond issue. The article notes that since Argentina defaulted (as a country) in 2001, they have made no substantive attempt to settle with their bondholders. And today Bloomberg news reports that Taiwans central bank said it may have to step in to ensure stability in the islands mutual fund industry after investor withdrawals forced five funds to halt redemptions. Standard and Poors hit the nail on the head when they termed the quality (or lack thereof) of financial reporting by companies in Taiwan as a crisis of confidence.

In truth, its ALL about confidence, that ephemeral emotion that resides in the portion of the brain governed by the limbic system. Each of the seemingly unconnected events that unfold in society, from financial to cultural, are in fact part of the tapestry of social mood. Social mood turned in earnest from a rising trend to declining one in 2000 and we are seeing the leading edge of a move back toward the continuation of this downtrend. As it progresses toward its inevitable pessimistic extreme, so too will the bear market progress in stocks and the deflationary spiral that we have detailed in our forecasts. Those who know where to look can see the divisiveness of a declining collective mood manifest itself in many forms, from sports to music to fashion to presidential politics (for a more in-depth discussion go to www.socionomics.com). It may not be pleasant to live through, but the forewarning that we have via the Wave Principle may at least allow us to remove ourselves and our families from harms way.

am I allowed to post here as a freerider? Just clicked on Traders room(new window) and THIS money am window said I had not subscribed as well as the Traders room window. Odd

moregas
Where am I?
In the MoneyAM Village
What do you want?
Information
Whose side are you on?
That would be telling . .

Moderators or not i see a squech buttono above.

Anyway..there isn't Favourites is there? If there s point me pls.

which lines r mine Moon?

PS of course u can ignore my last email now

food time

We want Information
You won't get it
By hook or by crook . . .
We will
Who are you?
The new Number Two
Who is Number One?
You are Number Six
I am not a number . . .
I'm a free man!

Looks like the risk is going to get bigger and bigger and bigger.......

19 Jul 2004 12:59 GMT


MARKET TALK: Carry Trades Are Back In Vogue

Edited by Nathan Barker
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

(call: 201 938 2397; e-mail: nathan.barker@dowjones.com)

MARKET TALK can be found using N/DJMT

8:59 (Dow Jones) After a mild June CPI report that reaffirms a modest pace of Fed tightening and rangebound Treasury yields, the buzz is that the carry trade is being put back on. Morgan Stanley research says recent "spread tightening seen in the emerging and high yield markets is a sign that the carry game is being played once again." Over at BofA, analysts note mild inflation and a "sickeningly predictable" pace of rate hikes means "investors are left with the choice of accepting the low rates of return offered across capital markets, or taking on levered risk." (MLM)

19 Jul 2004 13:08 GMT


BULLET: Stock Futures:One Chicago CTA reports that 1,095 in..
Stock Futures:One Chicago CTA reports that 1,095 in the Sep S&&P contract should provide solid support in the near-term, however, two consecutive closes below that level would technically signal lower prices. He maintains a bullish stance at these lows, looking to buy near the 1,095 level with a tight stop below at 1,086.

Provided by: Market News International

moonie are you going to be setting up a seperate loonie thread for fx trading or are you just going to be posting here?

yeh ill do one ps

19 Jul 2004 15:50 GMT


*EU To Launch Savings Tax On July 1, 2005

(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires

July 19, 2004 11:50 ET (15:50 GMT)

Postmaster admits 500,000 theft

A senior postmaster from Kent has admitted stealing more than 500,000 from a sorting office safe to fund his gambling habit.
Dean Williams, 34, stole the money over a two-year period while assistant manager at the office in Sevenoaks.

Williams, of Bradbourne Road, Sevenoaks, admitted theft at the town's magistrates court on Monday.

He will be sentenced at crown court at a later date - the court heard such an offence could mean nine years in jail.


Horse races

Magistrates heard Williams, who has worked for Royal Mail for 17 years, was only caught when a new manager noticed discrepancies in the amounts of money held at the branch.

He admitted spending the money gambling on a string of sporting events, including horse races.

Magistrates did not sentence Williams, saying the "serious nature" of the office took it beyond their sentencing powers.

Anthony Lenaghan, prosecuting, said theft from employers in such circumstances could attract a sentence of up to nine years in prison.

19 Jul 2004 17:40 GMT


BULLET: DOLLAR: Trader at another shop confirming what was...
DOLLAR: Trader at another shop confirming what was noted earlier, very little action in the markets despite the slight uptick in euro-dollar to near $1.2435.

hello hello what have we here then?

fredo sin crappo?

thought you'd all gone and left me...:-)

Is the USD fred the new CADU one Moon?

Hi, can I buy 3 buckets please and do you sell spades?

Buckets of rain
Buckets of tears
Got all them buckets comin' out of my ears.
Buckets of moonbeams in my hand,
I got all the love, honey baby,
You can stand.

Dolly, all we sell is sweat, tears and disappointment. We even sell it on margin.

yeh chiro it is

well men have dissapointed me all my life so no real surprises there

i thought this was a booket shop but ho hum...

10 to you dolly

You know Moon SS is all hunky dory for an FX thread since not much is posted on FX threads (peepl say msn is 'too slow').

I I can deffo kick his arse then, bulls eye..right on the ring :))))

wimme steelies

ian gave me a link for an msn group that has one...why dont you get msn messanger mg?

Not saying you would do but remember you can't edit posts, so get the charts right first off in first post.

anyway khalsas pad has got fx fred

messenger...i feel obliged to chat to people who start chatting to me. And I don't like chat or chatting.

there can be more than one fx thread in the world moon ;)

Couldn't figure wtf was going on with this chart for the first few seconds

.

hey look that'll be good for Ape...seems you can't stretch the thread.click here

Trading is ez money innit


Britons' 30bn gambling obsession
19 July 2004, Daily Mail

RITAIN'S obsession with betting has spiralled by huge sums, figures reveal. In only three years, the money staked by punters has shot up from 7.3bn annually to 29.6bn.

The astonishing statistics were revealed as the Government plans to relax gambling laws to allow Las Vegas-style casinos with 1m fruit machine jackpots.


The gambling surge began after Chancellor Gordon Brown abolished the 9% betting tax, which had to be paid by punters before October 2001. It has also been fuelled by the rise of internet betting and the wider range of bets offered by bookmakers.


There are fears - especially with proposals to allow Las Vegas-style casinos - that the huge growth in gambling will lead to more people becoming addicted and going into debt.


Rachel Lampard, of the Methodist Church, said: 'One of our concerns is debt. The average debt of gamblers is around 20,000. It can bring with it marriage problems, stress and ill-health.'


Another factor in the increase is the introduction of the 'fixed odds' machines in betting shops, which offer games such as roulette and 500 jackpots.


Experts say they are 'hugely problematic' because they allow punters to stake money very quickly.


Other new forms of gambling include exchanges, which allow people to bet among themselves rather than with a bookmaker and spread betting, in which cash is won or lost based on how far the result varies from that expected by the bookie.


The figures do not take into account the billions spent on bingo, Lottery tickets, gaming machines and in casinos. Betting tax was abolished in a bid to stop stake money going to tax-free outlets offshore.


Instead of punters paying 9% tax on bets, bookmakers were told to pay 15% on gross* profits.


The amount gambled by Britons was relatively stable between 1994 and 2001, according to HM Customs figures.


But in the year betting tax was scrapped, it rose 3bn to 10.3bn.


Over the next two years it rose sharply again, to 18.9bn and then, in the last year, to 29.6bn.

mg to be honest i set these freds up for us to chat on..i really cant be arsed starting another one kalsa one seems good..ian and hatman are over there as well

yeh

I know moon, ian landed a week or so back, duuno how come.. then when you were headed for here and hat threw in the towel i said to him why not come over. i never posted it because of one trouble maker who would make a B line for it.

busy day tomorrow..even drew up a list of things to do..and i've not lost it yet.

morning each.NRK post profits up 14.1% but belw expectations,will it be enuf to stop a slide on BB.

bb adverts are crappo

morning

BB. looking at 220p imho

been on my short list at 264 for sometime.

Played bb. from 271 to 263. closed the day before it dropped to the low 50's. bum.

Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the DAX's downwards drift should end soon, probably above 3800 today. The index should make an upmove to 3930 area later in the week -- then we will take it from there. The medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle to form, one which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. The idea, from here on up to next week, is not to quibble about a cyclical low, but rather start building a long stake at current levels for the medium-term haul.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index has retested the 4325 baseline, and we may see the down phase end soon, probably even today. The index should advance further towards the 4400 area later in the week. The medium-term outlook remains positive. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year. Therefore, the idea, from here on,is not to quibble, but rather start building a long stake at current levels for the medium-term haul.


- S&P 500 - the index did fell further but probably ended the down phase at 1096 on Monday -- we are still looking for an 1120 recovery from here.
The medium-term view remains positive -- recent action supports the view that a bigger scale +test of the low+ phase is about to end, and that a new bull market cycle, which started at 1076 in May would shortly resume. The new bull phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1300 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the Dow did fall further but the down phase may have ended at 10,027 Monday. We still look for a rally to 10,290 nonetheless. And, the medium-term view remains positive regardless. A new bullmarket phase may be about to unfold. All of these details should be immaterial from an investment point of view -- start building a portfolio now for a medium-term haul. We are looking for this middling correction to end soon -- the main uptrend which started at 9820 from the May low, should resume shortly. The bull market's revival waits in the wings -- and eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 12,000 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - another test of the 1380 support ended at 1386, and the downphase may have ended right there. We still expect an upmove towards the 1440 resistance from here. A new bull phase may be in the offing, but will only know for certain once the 1440 resistance is taken out. But is it important that medium-term investors should start building a new portfolio, as the uptrend should reassert soon. The medium-term view remains strong -- the new bull market started at 1372 in May, and should go on to test the 1560 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1750 later in the year.


- Nikkei - the index retests the 11.200 base once more -- it still looks like a recovery is in progress. We still believe in the bulls case -- a new bull uptrend may have already initated from the 10,450 low in May, which may have 15,000 - 15,500 as the major goal late in the year. -- No change in view -- Japan is on holiday Monday.


- Hang Seng - the index may have found support above 11,800 and the index should ratchet higher from here to challenge the 12,600 resistance. The market gets set for a new bull market rally. The uptrend should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 1 7,000 area later in the year.

closed aun +5.5 and 0.5

mind the gap.......

gents,

Good to see a decent lively thread over here!

To be honest i'm surprised more people haven't arrived yet as ADVFN seem to have more or less given up the moderation game, not that they did very much in the first place!

Am is moderated, and hopefully should be able to keep out the nutters.

IMHO the trickle could soon become a flood, and ADVFN may eventually see what damage a few isolated nutters are doing to their business model!

keep up the good thread!

Lol!

http://members.aol.com/intwg/trolls.htm

House price rises at weakest since Iraq war
Money: House price inflation slowed to its weakest in 10 months in June after higher interest rates and strong Bank of England warnings, estate agents say.
Guardian Unlimited Money

mick p,

LOL! very good!

Describes quite a few ADVFNers down to a 'T'!

thanks for the offer moonblue but it's a little on the large size, is there anything else in the stockroom?

what size would suit you...roughly in inches

probably about this size, it's only in case outside lav breaks again, can't get a plumber in these parts for weeks.

well griss keep it clean or youll be history

well i've been called worse things but what's a griss?

only havin a bit of fun as the mkt is zzz, i'll bugger off if you want, sorry..

griss is the moon nemisis..maybe im paranoid..

had the same thought Moonie but its gonna get paranoid if we think all new posters/names are griss.

So we wait for Waffle Made to Destroy threads (wmd's, best I could do) and let his ass get moderated.

Dolly, yer welcome here, its mainly bearish, with a tint of bullish reality when it gooos up, we like individual shares, sectors and indecies, fx on other thread.

We are here cos we got sick of thread wreckers seeking their entertainment, so excuse the tinge of paranoia

Yours Da Agency.

just cos you called me joe dolly..so you must know me

Is jjb sending out fx pivots Moony?

no i think hes away chiro

exactamont moon..first post i saw of dolly got me clicking the nae to see membership date.

So I continue to ignore all expt those i know. can't be arsed with the loser and lurkers anymore.

.

jeez you guys have been busy. Top of the afternoon to you all.

duplicated

no i would go along with more down insider..just cos everyone is looking to buy dips..they have been well trained these last 18 months

more down of course to complete the e wave and 5th on the daily chart 9550/70ish.

The major stock indexes continued their declines of last week, with all three major indexes, the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ, closing beneath their respective 200-day moving averages. The S&P also closed beneath the mid-channel of the parallel trend channel formed by the selloff from its March 5 high and beneath the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the May 12 low. We said Friday night that we wanted to press the bearish case coming into todays session and the markets decline accommodated our stance.




The same near-term bullish divergences we discussed in terms of breadth and ticks however, have not been resolved. Both NYSE and S&P 500 only breadth were slightly positive today, despite the down close in both the Dow and S&P. Likewise, NYSE ticks have so far failed to register a downside reading of greater than minus 1091, the kick-off reading to wave three down on July 1. And the daily charts of the Dow and S&P look like five wave declines from the late June highs. Finally, the high-beta indexes, such as the NASDAQ and its technology subcomponents, were stronger today on a relative and absolute basis, which suggests the decline from the late June highs may be in its latter stages. The combination of these near term technical factors suggests that a short term market low is fast approaching, which should mark the end of a five wave decline from the late June highs. This low should lead to an A-B-C rally to correct the selloff of the past three weeks.

The Dow and S&P both ended the day on a weak tone, so tomorrow mornings session will be important in helping us determine whether the five wave decline is complete or whether there remains a bit more selling pressure before the A-B-C rally starts. The above chart shows the subdivisions of the decline from the late June high in the S&P. The pattern is the same for the Dow. The best interpretation of the retreat is that at least one more down leg will unfold before wave (v) is complete. When finished, this leg lower should mark the bottom of Minute wave i (circled) down and lead directly to wave ii (circled) up. Based on internal wave relationships the S&P has support surrounding the 1091 level, though prices could move a bit lower (but we will look for signs of low near 1091). The equivalent support target for a bottom in the Dow is 9976-10,000. If these support levels are breached in any meaningful manner, selling pressure may become intense.

If the S&P pushes above the wave i of (v) low at any time, which is 1108, then the five wave decline from the June 25 will have already ended (Minute wave i (circled) down) and the A-B-C rally will be underway. The equivalent level in the Dow is 10,172. A push above there would indicate that Minute wave ii (circled) up was underway. The S&P would then be expected to rally into the 1115-1127 area, while the Dow should push up into the 10,225-10,325 area. We will narrow these ranges as we see the pattern development within wave ii (circled) and are able to make some Fibonacci-based wave projections. The rally, once it starts, should last at least a week.

what time does Ali G start gobbing off anyone?

7pm i think

Alan Greenspan Speaks! Tuesday - Jul 20, 2004

2:30 PM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to present Fed's second monetary policy report to Congress for 2004, before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington .

Speech Highlights: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is scheduled to present the second monetary policy report to Congress (the first was delivered in February). He addresses the Senate Banking Committee at 2:30 p.m. ET. Market players will nervously be watching whether or not the Fed chairman will reveal any new thoughts on the inflation outlook or the pace at which interest rates will be increased in upcoming months.



Sources: A special thanks to marketnews.com for providing the scheduling information for the speeches

Alan Greenspan Speaks! Tuesday - Jul 20, 2004

2:30 PM ET

I can't wait.......

me too he might drop dead if were lucky

CAIRO (AP)--U.N. weapons inspectors will return to Iraq in the coming days following an official invitation from the new government, the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Tuesday.

Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told reporters in Cairo that Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari had formally asked his agency to return.

"The return of U.N. inspectors to Iraq is an urgent necessity; not to search for weapons of mass destruction but to write the final report about the nonexistence of (such) weapons...in Iraq, which will enable the lifting of sanctions," he said.

The inspectors will be sent in the next few days, ElBaradei said.

U.N. inspectors left Iraq just before the war began in March 2003, and the U.S. refused to allow them to return, instead deploying its own teams to search for weapons of mass destruction.

ElBaradei said the coalition forces are not mandated to prove or negate that Iraq had WMD.

"The sole mandated authority is the IAEA and the international inspectors will continue the mission they started before the invasion," he said, adding that its mandate does not end until the final report is submitted. Following that report, sanctions imposed on Iraq can be lifted.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 20, 2004 12:02 ET (16:02 GMT)

Howdy pardners

alright hedge

nice thread!.

any of you fine guys and gals interested in playing the investment game
i'm sure you have seen the thread. It would be great to add another team
to the game and 'The Bucket Shop Team', would be interesting! a max of 10 players.
If not oh well and all the best.

-Goldie-
:-)

Thx for that GD.
Not bad Moonie.Shame about the other place.

Ali G says"you have had yer last warning"

20 Jul 2004 18:31 GMT


BULLET: [Greenspan]-Neutral stance is not defined, but risk..
[Greenspan]-Neutral stance is not defined, but raises risk of higher rates at a faster pace if needed: Fed needs "to be prepared for the unexpected and to respond promptly and flexibly as situations warrant." Says econ activity has quickened but inflation has been boosted by "transitory factors"; labor mkt is improving and there could be follow-on effects for spending. Fed "will pay close attention to incoming data, esp on costs and prices." Says "Even if econ developments dictate that the stance of policy must be adjusted in a less gradual manner to ensure price stability, our economy appears to have prepared itself for a more dynamic adjustment of interest rates." Mentions surging corp profits and higher ULC, but says margins are leveling or seeing downward pressure and wage hikes are not yet a problem. Except oil, no heightened risk perceptions. Central tend,&'04: real GDP +4.5%-4.75%;PCE core px +1.75-2% \

Provided by: Market News International

20 Jul 2004 18:33 GMT


=Fed Sees Rising US Inflation As Econ Grows Rapidly
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Federal Reserve on Tuesday raised its forecasts for U.S. inflation this year, and said the U.S. economy would likely continue to expand at a brisk pace this year and next.

In its semiannual report to Congress, the Fed predicted its favored measure of inflation - the price index for personal consumption, excluding food and energy - would range between 1.75% and 2.0% for 2004. This marks an upward shift from February when the Fed said the overall consumption price index would probably rise between 1% and 1.25% for the year, and has core inflation bumping against the 2% limit policymakers view as an acceptable level.

The Fed said that starting with this report, it would begin forecasting inflation figures as measured by the core price index for personal consumption, rather than the overall index, because policymakers "believe is better as an indicator of underlying inflation trends."

For 2005, the Fed sees core inflation between 1.5% and 2.0%. In the year through May, the overall price index for personal consumption was up 2.5%, while core inflation was up 1.6%.

"To some extent, the upturn in core inflation reflected the indirect effects of higher energy prices, but other forces also played a role," the Fed said in the report released Tuesday. "Strengthening aggregate demand both at home and abroad induced a surge in the prices of many primary commodities and industrial materials."

Also, the falling value of the U.S. dollar made imported goods more expensive, the Fed noted.

Still, "the prospects also seem favorable for inflation to remain contained in the period ahead," the Fed said. "For one reason, some of the forces that contributed to the upturn in core inflation in the first half of 2004 are likely to prove transitory." Specifically, energy and commodity prices should moderate in the months ahead, the Fed said.

Last month, the Fed raised its key short-term interest rate for the first time in four years by a quarter point, as economic growth became broad-based and the pace of job creation picked up. The Fed said the move likely marked the beginning of a "measured" approach to lifting interest rates back to levels more normal for a healthy economy.

The Fed said that while some recent economic data have "been on the soft side, the available information on the outlook for the U.S. economy is, on balance, positive."

The Fed said its "central tendency" forecast is for U.S. gross domestic product to grow between 4.5% and 4.75% in 2004, a bit narrower range than the 4.5% to 5.0% called for in February. The Fed also predicted 2005 U.S. growth will fall in the range of 3.5% and 4.0%. The predictions measure growth in the fourth quarter over the fourth quarter of the prior year.

The figures are in line with private forecasts on Wall Street, which call for the U.S. economy to expand about 4.5% in 2004 and 3.8% in 2005.

"Households are enjoying a generally improving job market, rising real incomes and greater wealth, all of which are providing them with the confidence and wherewithal to spend," the Fed said.

The Fed's latest estimates call for unemployment to range between 5.25% and 5.5% in the fourth quarter this year, exactly matching the February forecast. As of June, the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 5.6%, according to the U.S. Labor Department.

For 2005, the Fed predicts unemployment will drop to a range between 5.0% and 5.25%.

-By Elizabeth Price, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9295; Elizabeth.Price@dowjones.com

Yep, he's too late = US screwed:

20 Jul 2004 18:35 GMT


MARKET TALK/FX: Fed Bumps Up Its Inflation Bet

[MARKET TALK/FX is edited by Michael A. Pollock]
[of Dow Jones Newswires, 201-938-2004; michael.pollock@dowjones.com]

1835 GMT [Dow Jones] The Fed has updated its so-called central tendency forecasts and has upgraded its inflation assessment to a range of 1.75% to 2% for the current year. The growth bet is down a bit, with GDP gaining between 4.5% and 4.75% for the year. (MSD)

Tsys going nuts

hehehehe

20 Jul 2004 18:49 GMT


*Fed Fund Futures See 85% Chance 25 BP Rate Rise In Sep

(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires

July 20, 2004 14:49 ET (18:49 GMT)

20 Jul 2004 18:51 GMT


Greenspan says period of low rates must end
WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the period of low interest rates must end. In his semi-annual report on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Greenspan dismissed concerns about recent softness in economic data. He said that the risks of tightening were outweighed by leaving low rates in place as the economy improves. Greenspan said the economy was prepared for gradual rate hikes and also could handle "less gradual" rate increases if necessary. Greenspan said the Fed was not yet sure whether the benign inflation environment would persist or if there were more deep seated forces at work pushing prices higher. The Fed will pay close attention to incoming cost and price data.

This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

fookin loon not going up much

use the swiss loon one hedge..

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=6818784

"buy the lonnie"

Scared bull:

20 Jul 2004 19:19 GMT


MARKET TALK: When Al Goldman's Nervous You Need To Be

Edited by Nathan Barker
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

(call: 201 938 2397; e-mail: nathan.barker@dowjones.com)

MARKET TALK can be found using N/DJMT

3:19 (Dow Jones) When perennial bull Al Goldman gets nervous you known there's something afoot in the stock market. "Last week our short-term patience ran out, and our caution ran up," the A.G. Edwards strategist said in a note to clients this morning. "We are advising aggressive traders to go to a hedged position by getting short weak stocks as well as long good-performing stocks." He does remain a bit philosophical, though. "Perhaps we have to get safely past the two political conventions and the Olympics or see more stability in Iraq before the positive fundamentals win out over the current bearish mood," he mused. (KJT)

investment challenge



im up for it

http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/ShowPostList?fID=1&tID=3433

me too :-)

That's what I said, moonblue

I'm not, but i am challenged.

i fancy, if there's anyone else to do a SIRA thread on advfn
SI an RA that is. A final fare well to advfn saying we ain't goint ot renew subs, dunnae forget paid subs ans fre handle don't always mix, so there's no way to see who is true.

i was gonna make you chairman mg

Nicol Elliot spooked me a bit o euro-usd, said rounding bottom is stronger pattern than double top, and its going up to break that and new highs.

lol 25p too much.

but its impulsiplicating down innit.

oh fook!

so long as i can bang a hammer like judge nutmeg and shout Silence In Court!

Hey tonight I sleep in a bedroom!!!!!

yes you can bang the hammer...whose nicol elliot?

an ugly bird from Mihoooooozo bank, cnbc every tuesday, deals in currencies mainly. an s of that mainly ma's basic TA fibby retracesa and illiott wavvums

toss a coin

mizuho fx research and calls moon

Ah wrong page..nearly tho

The Technical Analysis section of the Website contains material prepared by Nicole Elliott of the Foreign Exchange Department.

this is their fx research index page

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USD,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pb55!b20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G


that looks like a buy to me....cant listen to mizoos

they not audio files, they are pdf's but they won't open for me.

Anyways, you have the mail man, with an interesting snippet, maybe worth something (not munny) to you.

i meant dont listen to what those tossers think..lol

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: July 21 Europe



- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a recent slowdown in consumer spending because of inflation ``should prove short-lived'' and that the central bank can continue to raise interest rates at a ``measured'' pace. ``Inflation also seems to have been boosted by transitory factors such as the surge in energy prices,'' Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee. ``Those higher prices, by eroding households' disposable income, have accounted for at least some of the observed softness in consumer spending of late, a softness which should prove short-lived.'' The Federal Open Market Committee, in a related report, predicted the economy will grow as much as 4.75 percent in 2004 from last year's fourth quarter, down from a 5 percent estimate in February. Retail sales and industrial production fell in June, job gains trailed forecasts, and a report today showed an unexpected drop in housing starts. Stocks and bond prices fell.


- Microsoft Corp., awash with more cash than any U.S. company outside the financial industry, will return more than $75 billion to shareholders over the next four years through a special payout, stock buybacks and a higher dividend. The shares rose after Microsoft said it will buy back as much as $30 billion in stock over four years and spend $32 billion, or $3 a share, on a one-time dividend. The company said in a statement it will double its dividend to 32 cents a year. Chief Executive Steve Ballmer, 48, responded to investor pressure to return some of the Redmond, Washington-based company's $56.4 billion in cash. The plan is the largest return of capital ever for a U.S. company and is bigger than the entire market value of all but 24 other members of the Standard & Poor's 500 index.


- The Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest rate at 2 percent, saying the rise in oil prices isn't driving up its preferred measure of inflation fast enough to warrant an increase in borrowing costs yet. The central bank's target rate for overnight loans between commercial banks remains at a 43-year-low, three-quarters of a point greater than the equivalent U.S. federal funds rate of 1.25 percent.



Equity Markets Summary -


Asian stocks rose today, after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said a slowdown in U.S. consumer spending may be ``short-lived.'' The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 900 stocks, rose 0.8 percent to 90.25 at 12:10 p.m. in Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 1.4 percent to 11,418.59. During the midday break, the Cabinet office doubled its forecast for economic growth in the year ending March 31 to 3.5 percent, the most in eight years. South Korea's Kospi index jumped 2.2 percent to 753.52, while Taiwan's Taiex index added 1.3 percent to 5394.77. Stock benchmarks in all markets rose, except in China.

U.S. stocks gained after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said consumer spending may pick up even as the central bank continues to raise interest rates at a ``measured pace.'' Better-than-expected profit from Corning Inc., the largest maker of fiber-optic cable, lifted technology shares. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has shed 2.8 percent this month and is down 0.3 percent in 2004 amid concern higher borrowing costs may crimp profits. The S&P 500 rose 7.77, or 0.7 percent, to 1108.67. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 55.01, or 0.5 percent, to 10,149.07. Both benchmarks gained for the first day in five. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which gets 39 percent of its value from computer-related shares, jumped 33.24, or 1.8 percent, to 1917.07, the biggest advance since June 7.

European health-care stocks rose after Novartis AG, Switzerland's biggest drugmaker, raised its earnings and sales goals and posted profit that beat analysts' estimates. The Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index added 0.4 percent to 2603.33 as of 4:48 p.m. in London. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.2 percent. The Euro Stoxx 50, a benchmark for the 12 countries using the euro, gained 0.4 percent. Benchmark indexes rose in 12 of the 17 Western European markets. Germany's DAX Index added 0.7 percent, France's CAC 40 Index rose 0.4 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index gained 0.4 percent. September futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.7 percent.


Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - no change in view that the DAX's downwards drift may have ended at 3785 -- the index should make an upmove to 3930 area later in the week -- then we will take it from there. The medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle to form, one which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. The idea, from here on up to next week, is not to quibble about a cyclical low, but rather start building a long stake at current levels for the medium-term haul.


- FTSE 100 Index - no change on the view that the index may have reversed at 4297. The index should advance further towards the 4400 area later in the week. The medium-term outlook remains positive. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year. Therefore, the idea, from here on,is not to quibble, but rather start building a long stake at current levels for the medium-term haul.


- S&P 500 - the index probably ended the down phase at 1096 on Monday and reconfirmed by the positive close Tuesday -- and we are still looking for an 1120 recovery from here. The medium-term view remains positive -- recent action supports the view that a bigger scale +test of the low+ phase is about to end, and that a new bull market cycle, which started at 1076 in May would shortly resume. The new bull phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1300 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the Dow may have ended at 10,027 Monday and reconfirmed by the positive close Tuesday. We still look for a rally to 10,290 nonetheless. And, the medium-term view remains positive regardless. A new bullmarket phase may be about to unfold. All of these details should be immaterial from an investment point of view -- start building a portfolio now for a medium-term haul. We are looking for this middling correction to end soon -- the main uptrend which started at 9820 from the May low, should resume shortly. The bull market's revival waits in the wings -- and eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 12,000 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - the downphase may have ended right at 1186 low. We still expect an upmove towards the 1440 resistance from here. A new bull phase may be in the offing, but will only know for certain once the 1440 resistance is taken out. But is it important that medium-term investors should start building a new portfolio, as the uptrend should reassert soon. The medium-term view remains strong -- the new bull market started at 1372 in May, and should go on to test the 1560 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1750 later in the year.


- Nikkei - the index may yet fall furtherto 11,500, but the decline is not a given. The rally should eventually resume and go further higher. We still believe in the bulls' case -- a new uptrend may have already initated from the 10,450 low in May, which may have 15,000 - 15,500 as the major goal late in the year.


- Hang Seng - the index has indeed found support above 11,800 and should ratchet higher to challenge the 12,600 resistance. The market gets set for a new bull market rally. The uptrend should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 1 7,000 area later in the year.

This is a Team based FTSE Investment Game visit The Cafe
Each team starts with 1 million pounds to invest
The Team leader will be reponsible for posting their teams investment selection
Each team can select between 1 to 10 FTSE / AIM stocks for their portfolio
Every weekend each team may make one trade (must be complete stock) or new investment; post before 6pm Sundays
Buying into a stock you already own will be classed as a new stock and not added. (see example below)
The Game will last 10 weeks.
The team with the biggest profit after 10 weeks wins the game.
Team members should email each other or post on this thread their investment ideas for the Team captain. The Team Captain must make the final investment decisions.
Teams can only invest and not go short. Buying at offer and selling at bid price.
Dividend payments will not be included. The game is based solely on the price of a share.
There is a maximum of 10 players per Team.
Game starts 30th July, Team Captains should post first investments choices before 6pm Sunday 1st August.
This Game is only a bit of fun and Golddog reserves the right to do what he likes (mutley snigger)

Eligible players from GD's Tea rooms have already been placed into teams, if you do not wish to play then you can either tell me or just become a silent member of the team. Or you may request transfer to another team.

If you would like to play along then please post which team you would like to be placed in. (anyone may join in). The girls team is for girls only. If a group of you would like to set up your own team then just let Golddog know!

Please ask any questions?
Other than that we shall make it up as we go along? :-)

Teams should select a Team Captain or Golddog will choose.

example of Team Leader posting;

buy 250,000 Barclays barc
buy 300,000 bodyshop bos
buy 280,000 Lloyds-TSB Group lloy

example of following weekend posting;

sell barclays
buy 200,000 Lloyds-TSB Group lloy

Portfolio will then be as follows;

1. 300,000 worth of bodyshop bos
2. 280,000 worth of Lloyds-TSB Group lloy
3. 200,000 worth of Lloyds-TSB Group lloy

no shorts? What kind of investment is this? Where is the protection/balance?

Answers on a postcard to:

Saturday Soup Kitchen
Platform 1
Euston Station
BRO KEN

or email

Iwanttoloose50%ofmyinvestmentsagaininthesamedecade@pauper.bum

Investing is no longer about B&H izzit? Thought the bulls had been taught an expensive lesson already.......

yeh but 30th is fibo turn date mick,,so it might go up...ill have gsk,barc as mine

yea but we can do both....... longs and shorts, don't understand this fixation with buying and holding till the Trumpet sounds.

Longs may already be the way to go, if you believe saxo. Yesterday looked like an excuse to turn it, Ali G said nowt that should have rallied mkts, so if daz boyz want it back up, so be it, I ain't standing in front of them.

I have gsk on watch too. 1000 was huge support last year.

Closed a small nrk long +7. Look at it now +22. I hate going long.......lol

mitzooos mg..same as it ever was

what was the boe vote ...been out

Glad to see you have an interest in the game. Just let me know all the names that want to be in your team and select yourself a Team Captain. It's only a bit of fun and sorry about no shorting! :-)

affanoon,team games eh,but not for bears.

yea, its discrimination, just cos we smell and don't eat grass.......

gold ..its easy we just sell first and buy back second...surely u can accomadate that?

team is

moregas
mick p
hijeff
dickster
moonblue
hedge66
kevinmcm
ps499

one team member there i dont know,dickster,did you have anover name elsewhere?

he is dickster on advfn,i asked him on phone ,he said yes,he posts on moneyam traders room...

moonie the dial code wasnt spain then.lol

lol..

bet greenspan turns the usd roundat 320pm...

chaps I really donn't know if I've got the time. I t takes me ages to do things anyway and theres a lot of other things id rather be doing. No offoenc e meant.

gold at support

anyone else want to volunterr?

21 Jul 2004 16:04 BS =DJ Special Summary Of Fed Chairman Greenspan's Testimony




The following is a special summary of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. For full coverage of the events and a complete verbatim text of Greenspan's comments, please search the code G/FED.


Greenspan Reiterates Fed Sees Gradual Interest-Rate Rise
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday the U.S. central bank aims to continue raising interest rates at a gradual clip over the next 18 months or so, but is ready to "respond promptly and flexibly" if inflation proves to be higher than policymakers now expect.

In the second round of his semi-annual testimony to Congress on monetary policy, Greenspan said the latest economic data show the U.S. economic recovery has become "broad-based" and "self-sustaining." He downplayed worries that the recovery is losing steam, saying the recent weakness in consumer spending is likely to prove "short-lived." Under the circumstances, he said, the Fed must raise its key federal-funds rate to a "more neutral setting" that neither stimulates nor curbs economic growth.


Greenspan: '01 Tax Cuts Were Necessary To Curb Recession

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Wednesday defended the $1.3 trillion tax cuts that Congress enacted in 2001, saying the cuts helped stave off a deeper recession than the one the economy suffered that year.

But Greenspan told U.S. lawmakers that he is worried about the long-term outlook for the budget and urged Congress to adopt rules that would require spending increases to be offset by tax increases or tax cuts to be offset by spending cuts.


Treasurys Slide Continues With More Greenspan On The Way

With Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy still fresh in the minds of investors, Treasurys fell further in midmorning trade Wednesday, with shorter-dated maturities suffering the most.

Market participants are now listening to the Chairman's responses to questions from the House Financial Services Committee in the second leg of his semi-annual congressional testimony. Greenspan delivered an identical speech to the committee as the one given to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 21, 2004 11:04 ET (15:04 GMT)

hootchey coochy yuro

moonblue is greenbum talking againt today aswell? can you please tell me what time gmt please. Guess which idiot is long cable today? yep and am covering by moving the stop around.

rgds
zarif

aye im happiy eroused. :)

Tell hatty I'm off to wash my balls :)

lol what will munnyam think of me?

hes spake at 320pm zarif..and did q&a

zarif



can check for weeks ahead below

http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2004/month/07/day/21/daily/index.html

http://www.forexnews.com/

Moonblue- many thanks. Despite his Hawkish comments the cable has certainly taken a nose dive the last two days and i am long dec contract so am hanging in there and scalping on the daily.

rgds
zarif

z ..fx is moved by the specs imo..any excuse to move it they do..news is interpreted to fit the movement...so really best not to stand in the way of a strong move...go with flow i recon..Sentiment polls show the crowd is as bearish the US Dollar as any time in history right now. Perhaps that's why it can't go down:

gap filled and then up again.......

Thanks Moonblue - you are right its "just Manipulation" and climbing a wall of worry!!!.

Re team
Kenmare buy is my recommendation.
MG
gone short cable 382,(bit premature)see the gap filled, limit about 40 lower.

Ok i will add your team to the Game. There is not really to much to do apart from select your initial stock picks, and then if you want to make any changes (one per weekend) you may do so. Or you can just let your portfolio ride it's course for the 10 weeks. The Leader is just the person who posts the selection and makes any changes. Other than that - thats it!

You could stick the whole 1 million into just one stock or divide up between individual team member stock picks? it's up to you. Team members can be active or silent, it does not really matter.

and thanks for joining in.
:-)

hopefully golddog the others will add thier choices and we can divde it up that way

hi moonie..

leeshindig here...

just thought id say hello whilst up late piddling about with the site...:)

that lunatic on the other channel is still creating two aliases a minute..

regards
Lee.
Live Charts

p.s we signed kluivert!!

hi lee..
hes over rated...lol

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/

They have changed the lower end tgt:


Equity Markets Summary -


Asian stocks declined today, after a Texas Instruments Inc. executive said growth in the wireless communications industry will slow in coming quarters. Morgan Stanley Capital International's Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 900 stocks, dropped 0.9 percent to 88.65 at 11 a.m. Tokyo time. The regional index fell for a third day and is on course for the lowest close in five weeks. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slumped 1.6 percent to 11,256.41. South Korea's Kospi index slid 1.7 percent, while Taiwan's Taiex index fell 1.2 percent. Stock benchmarks fell in all countries except for the Philippines.


U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, led by technology shares after investors were disappointed by Motorola Inc.'s results and Microsoft Corp.'s failure to sustain its initial gains on a plan to distribute $75 billion to shareholders. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index shed 14.79, or 1.3 percent, to 1093.88, with most of the drop coming in the last two hours. Mercury Interactive Corp., which makes software that tests the performance of computer programs, helped lead the decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 102.94, or 1 percent, to 10,046.13. Both benchmarks closed at two-month lows. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell to a level not seen since Oct. 24. It lost 42.70, or 2.2 percent, to 1874.37, led by Nextel Communications Inc., Intel Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc.

European stocks rose Wednesday after Ericsson AB and Volvo AB posted higher-than-expected earnings, boosting investor optimism about profit growth. The Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index added 1.1 percent to 2631.29, its biggest gain since June 16. The Stoxx 600 Index advanced 1 percent, led by technology shares, with about eight stocks climbing for every three that fell. The Euro Stoxx 50, a benchmark for the 12 countries using the euro, rose 0.8 percent. All 18 industries in the Stoxx 600 climbed, except the food and beverage group. The Stoxx 600's group of technology shares advanced 3.3 percent.



Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index has been to 3900, pulls back to 3860 - 3855, but should make an upmove to 3940 - 3950 thereafter. The medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle to form, one which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. The idea, from here on up to next week, is not to quibble about a cyclical low, but rather start building a long stake at current levels for the medium-term haul.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index has been to 4390, pulls back to 4335 - 4330, but should advance further towards the 4410 - 4420. The medium-term outlook remains positive. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year. Therefore, the idea, from here on,is not to quibble, but rather start building a long stake at current levels for the medium-term haul.


- S&P 500 - the index failed to make it 1120 and fell below Monday's trough, going to as low as 1093 -- a disappointing development since it opens up the risk of further declines to 1080 - 1070. The medium-term view remains positive however -- if 1080 holds the line, expect a new bull market cycle, may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the Dow failed to make it to 10,300, and looks like the test of the low will go through and Dow revisits 9850 base, a disappointing development. The medium-term view remains positives nonetheless. The main uptrend should resume shortly. -- the bull market's revival waits in the wings -- and eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 12,000 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - an upmove towards the 1440 - 1450 resistance was turned back at 1433 -- the decline since then disappoints, as it opens the possibility of further declines to 1370 - 1360. The medium-term view remains positive however -- a new bull market should go on to test the 1560 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1750 later in the year.


- Nikkei - no change in view -- the rally has resumed and should go further higher -- next stop is 12,200 high. We believe in the bulls' case -- a new uptrend may have already initated from the 10,450 low in May, which may have 15,000 - 15,500 as the major goal late in the year.


- Hang Seng - no change in view -- the index should continue to ratchet higher, then challenge the 12,600 resistance. The market gets set for a new bull market rally. The uptrend should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 1 7,000 area later in the year.

morning my long for the comp has to be BAA safe as houses.

hey moony, been hard to find, u here now? is there a new fx fred,,,,am long some cable think the dollar might resume weakness, whats greeny talking aboot and when..?

he said this an that but i didnt understand hiro...still using advfn for fx...swisscableloon fred

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=6818784

get us a long for muny am compo hiro

moonie,griss refered to you as also 'captain splash' is that true,you basteeeerd

nope

long lol? needle in a haystack moony, try ghh, wkp or pdg, all in uptrends ghh had fundamental good news in last results, could try ubm with stop 450...what kind of compo is it that u cant hedge - come back lemmy ! If u believe the bottoms in arm always good fer a punt. Pharma ub48 sector could be bottoming azn and gsk have moved off their lows...then again most looks a bit fooked out there.

found you , think tpb's talking to himself over there

maybe we just go long 1 share of some penny stock then we just stay cash

Phew -sigh of relief -managed to get out of cable long today with 30pips upfront after tearing my hair out yesterday. I bet now it rockets up.Have u noticed that the whole "game" changes as soon as u put on a real position?

rgds
zarif

them unigmas all came good so far today , think i'll wait for next off day then start trading the next day

evening...

well whenever I've gone against the unigma trend I've lost fwiw....

i'm not going against them chiro but it looks like they have the odd off day so was gonna wait for them to have an off day then go with them from then on , been watching them for a couple of days and i'm reasonably impressed

Chairman Lao:
Nice to have your accquaintance (spelling wasnot my best subject).
If you dont mind can you let me know what FWIW stands for and LOL as a lot of people use it and I honestly dont know. As they say if you put your hand up and ask you may look a for fool for a minute otherwise you will be one forever.

rgds
zarif

sounds like a reasonable tactic CL - good as any!

zarif - 'for what it's worth' and 'laugh out loud' (could be lots of love but I'm guessing not!)

i used to think it meant lots of love , got a bit weird sometimes when i first used the bb's , chiro i think most people are posting at khalsas pad now

Chiro -thank you very much-learn something new everyday.

What instruments do you trade. Me i do mainly the Yankee market indices -dow and SNP and forex.

rgds
zarif

moonie,makes sence keeping mainly cash,after all were all bears at heart.

Mainly forex but have a job so all time depending!

CL - where's khalsas pad?

A crowded Virgin flight was cancelled after Virgin's 767's had been withdrawn from service. A single attendant was re-booking a long line of inconvenienced travellers.

Suddenly an angry passenger pushed his way to the desk. He slapped his ticket down on the counter and said,"I HAVE to be on this flight and it HAS to be FIRST CLASS!"

The attendant replied ," I'm sorry sir,I'll be happy to try to help you,but I've to help these people first, and I'm sure we'll be able to work something out".

The passenger was unimpressed. He asked loudly, so that the passengers behind him could hear,"DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA WHO I AM?"

Without hesitating, the attendant smiled and grabbed her public address microphone: "May I have your attention please," she began- her voice heard clearly throughout the terminal. "We have a passenger here at Gate 14 WHO DOES NOT KNOW WHO HE IS. If anyone can help him find his identity, please come to gate 14".

With folks behind him in line laughing hysterically, the man glared at the Virgin attendant, gritted his teeth and said, "Fuck You!".

Without flinching, she smiled and said, 'I'm sorry,sir,but you'll have to get in line for that too."

Well the Nasdaq is unhappy again isn't it.
Short $/swiss via sb from about 1.25

it's on msn groups chiro not sure how to point you to it , moonie'll tell you when he appears , i used a link ages ago , not sure if this'll work ,http://groups.msn.com/KhalsasPad

thx cl applied for membership....

Horizontal support held (so far) at just above 4300. Lets see what happens on contact with the ma's:

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH TODAY: July 23 Europe



- Japanese services unexpectedly shrank for the first time in three months in May, led by a slump in wholesale and retail trade as cold weather kept shoppers at home. The tertiary index, a measure of demand for services, dropped 1 percent from April, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in Tokyo. The median estimate of economists was for a 0.4 percent increase. Wholesale trade fell 4 percent after posting a 5.5 percent gain the previous month. Demand for services will probably resume its growth as people spend more. Companies are hiring more workers, boosting the consumer spending that makes up more than half of the world's second-largest economy.


- The Bank of Canada signaled it's ready to raise interest rates as the quickening pace of economic growth, a rebound in exports and higher oil prices set the stage for faster inflation. "As economies approach their production capacity, monetary stimulus must be removed to avoid a buildup of inflation pressures,'' Governor David Dodge said in Ottawa after releasing the central bank's Monetary Policy Report. The central bank's first rate increase since April 2003 probably will be on Sept. 8, according to most economists. On Tuesday, Dodge kept the target for overnight loans between commercial banks, the country's benchmark rate, at a 43-year low of 2 percent.



- Microsoft Corp., the world's largest software maker, said fourth-quarter profit rose 81 percent as sales of Office programs increased. Returns on Microsoft's $60.6 billion in cash dropped, causing earnings to miss analysts' estimates. Net income rose to $2.69 billion, or 25 cents a share, from $1.48 billion, or 14 cents, a year earlier, when the company had costs from lawsuits. Revenue rose 15 percent to $9.29 billion, the Redmond, Washington-based company said in a statement. Microsoft's plan to distribute $75 billion to shareholders cut into profit as the company shifted some of its investments into low-yield, short-term securities to prepare for the payouts. Microsoft shares fell 65 cents to $28.35 in extended trading after the report was released. They closed at $29, up 14 cents, in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading.






Equity Markets Summary -


Asian stocks fell, led by exporters such as Canon Inc. and Hyundai Motor Co., after a three-day gain in crude-oil futures raised concern that higher fuel costs will reduce consumer spending in their biggest markets. Morgan Stanley Capital International's Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 900 stocks, dropped 0.7 percent to 88.31 at 11:05 a.m. in Tokyo. The regional index fell for a fourth day, on course for its longest losing streak in almost three months. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slumped 0.8 percent to 11,195.15. South Korea's Kospi index slid 0.6 percent. Singapore's Straits Times Index lost 0.2 percent.

U.S. equities finished with modest gains in a session characterized by choppy trading. A mixed bag of second quarter earnings and economic data made for heavy selling out of the gate. But both the Dow and Nasdaq rallied off multi-month lows to close in positive territory on the day. Dow +4.20 at 10050.33, Nasdaq +14.69 at 1889.06, S&P +2.96 at 1096.84

The weekly jobless report impressed, with initial claims falling by more than expected and continuing claims plunging to their lowest level in over three years. The Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell 0.2% in June, with five of the ten components giving negative signals for the month. The decline doubled expectations and marked the first negative reading since March 2003.





Equity Technicals:


- DAX Index - the index pulled back to 3800 again, but should find support anew and reinstate the uptrend after this +test of the low+ procedure. It should still make an upmove to 3940 - 3950 thereafter. The medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle to form, one which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year. The idea, from here on up to next week, is not to quibble about a cyclical low, but rather start building a long stake at current levels for the medium-term haul.


- FTSE 100 Index - the index stabilized at 4310, but should advance further after this impressive +test of the 4297 low+. It should still rally towards the 4410 - 4420 target further out. The medium-term outlook remains positive still. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year. Therefore, the idea, from here on,is not to quibble, but rather start building a long stake at current levels for the medium-term haul.


- S&P 500 - the index fell further and went to as low as 1084 before generating a rally at the close which reached 1100. The rally should continue today and have a go at the 1105 upside target, but may correct lower from there. The medium-term view remains positive however -- if 1080 holds the line, expect a new bull market cycle, may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 later in the year.


- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - the Dow did have a go at the 9850 base, but found support at 9945. the corresponding rally has been to as high as 10,075. It should extend gains and may yet make it to the 10,100 area. The index may correct lower from there. The medium-term view remains positives nonetheless. The main uptrend should resume shortly. -- the bull market's revival waits in the wings -- and eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 12,000 later in the year.


- NDX 100 - the index had a further decline to 1377 but has been higher since then, rising to 1411. The rally should extend to 1420 today,and should correct lower from there. The medium-term view remains positive nonethless -- a new bull market should go on to test the 1560 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1750 later in the year.


- Nikkei - the rally faltered, and we may see 11,500 after all. But this is a brief digression, as the uptrend should go further higher -- next stop is 12,200 high. We believe in the bulls' case -- a new uptrend may have already initated from the 10,450 low in May, which may have 15,000 - 15,500 as the major goal late in the year.


- Hang Seng - the index pauses for breath, but should continue to ratchet higher later, then challenge the 12,600 resistance. The market gets set for a new bull market rally. The uptrend should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 1 7,000 area later in the year.




================================================

moony for the comp....check out vti, fwy and aqp

hi all -cable dipping a bit and am buying on the dips.scalping
Hodgins -worried about your US/CHF as last i looked at chart was shooting up.

rgds
zarif

zarif, stopped out on that, small(ish)loss. Stopped dabbling now as going to Greece for a few weeks

Hello. I need to know who will be posting your teams stock selection for the Team Investment Game?.

me gold .... buy 200,000 each of vti, fwy ,baa,kenmore,and aqp

ok moonblue you can change your selection if you want before sunday. good luck.
:-)

a moneyam competitor

!

hey money bags hows the euor short

kenmore? not sure what stock this is moonblue.

Does anybody know where I can find a chart of the S&P overnight fair value futures traded on Globex. Cheers.

Kenmare KMR

its ok moon thanks to hooch coochy mainly. still 25p in total. was i think 70 up today I like them retrns %wise. If i was a good trader then i'd have banked today..however if it is a bounce in a bigger downtrend then i don't trust myself to get in atthe correct time, miss it or stop out. so tho its boring..leaving it for the timebeing.

Team Group 6: The Bucket Shop Team 6/1 Funds Available 0.09 Position 8
Stock Name Buy @ p Sell @ p Holdings Invested Current value Prof / loss
1 Virotec International NPV 27.5 25 727274 200,000.35 181,818.50 -18,181.85
2 Fayrewood 138 136 144927 199,999.26 197,100.72 -2,898.54
3 BAA 560 560 35714 199,998.40 199,998.40 0.00
4 Aquarius Platinum 228 232 87720 200,001.60 203,510.40 3,508.80
5 Kenmare Resources 16.5 15.5 1212123 200,000.30 187,879.07 -12,121.23
6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Invested= 999,999.91 Total prof/loss -29,692.82
Team Players: moregas TC, mick p, hijeff, dickster, moonblue, Banked Funds 1,000,000.00
hedge66, kevinmcm, ps499 Team Worth 970,307.18

vti worries me

moonie - have you given up on the threads?

well sort of choc..its not got much intrest has it

Well I've been following it!
It'd be a shame if you stop, moonie - you put a lot of effort into it. People are away too, y'know.

yeh i know but all things must pass

Sometimes the only way to win is to surrender

Hmm - I s'pose there is logic - but to whom?
At least you weren't getting any aggro here?

no im not but i dont trade shares or indicies just forex..
and i dont have time to post on those as it moves very fast..so im left with the question ...whats the point?

Dear Subscriber,

With just 12 weeks between now and the presidential election, sifting through the political spin to figure out what's really going on in the economy is going to be tougher by the day.

Politicians will point fingers for bad numbers and take credit for good ones.

Their economic experts will invent new theories, omit facts, and ignore the obvious.

Even so-called "objective" analysts will often have a hidden agenda.

Last night, for example, one political commentator posing as "independent and unbiased" was actually pushing a pro-Kerry agenda. Another was obviously pro-Bush. Their acrobatics to twist the facts about the economy were so swift it made my head spin.

In the heat of the debate, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans seem to see what's really going on.

Neither has recognized that they are fellow passengers on a single vessel, driven by undercurrents that are now beyond their control ..


Undercurrent #1
The greatest consumer
squeeze in half a century!

Consider the plight of most American families right now:

* They have already spent their tax-cut money ...

* They can't borrow any more on their homes ...

* Their prospects for new jobs are grim; and for higher paying jobs, even grimmer ...

* They're dishing out up to $50 per week just to fill up a single tank of gas; and ..

* They're swimming in debt.

So they're beginning to cut back, throttling down the single largest engine driving the economic recovery.

Important: This consumer squeeze didn't begin under Bush. Nor is it going to be resolved simply by a change of the guard. The squeeze is the natural consequence of a multi-decade borrowing-and-spending binge that has finally reached a dead end.


Undercurrent #2
The greatest investor
disappointment in decades!

Ever since the stock market hit rock bottom in late 2002, investors have harbored fervent hopes for a full recovery back to the market's all-time highs or beyond. But now, nearly one year and ten months later, it looks like those hopes are being dashed.

The Dow Jones Industrials dove decisively below 10,000 on Thursday, busted to brand new lows for the year on Friday, and kept on falling right up until the closing bell.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell even more sharply, and both are now trading at around the same level as they did in early 1998!

In other words, if you had bought the average S&P or Nasdaq stock in the first months of 1998, and you had held on faithfully to your shares for more than six long years, all you'd have to show for your patience right now is a big fat zero.

But you'd be among the lucky ones: Investors who bought the average S&P stock in early 2000 are now down to about 66 cents on the dollar; and those who bought the average Nasdaq stocks are down to a meager 33 cents on the dollar, despite the long market rise of 2003.

Historians of the future will debate endlessly whether the first half of the decade brought us two bear markets separated by a one-year bull ... or one single bear market interrupted by a one-year rally.

But that's of little significance right now. In this political season, the key point to recognize is that the market's malaise did not originate in the current administration. Nor will it be easily overcome by the next. It is the natural outcome of speculative excesses that have been piling up for many years and have yet to be unraveled.


Undercurrent #3
No more trump cards!

The last time the market and the economy were beginning to sink like this, President Bush still had two trump cards tax cuts and rate cuts. He played them both. And he rescued the economy from the jaws of disaster.

But now the recovery cycle is ending, and there's little or nothing the government can do about it:

* No matter how weak the economy may be the Fed is committed to raising short-term interest rates not lowering them. Tomorrow, they're going to hike the Fed Funds rate to 1.5% ... and by early next year, they'll probably jack it up to 2% or more.

* No matter which party controls Congress, the bulging federal budget deficit makes more tax cuts politically impossible.

* And regardless of who wins the White House, there are no more trump cards.

If Bush wins, he will likely pursue a similar economic agenda, with little or nothing that is substantially new enough to encourage investors. And if Kerry wins, he will likely restore some portion of the dividend taxes or capital gains taxes, spooking stock investors even more.


Undercurrent #4
Inflation

Just because the economy is weakening doesn't necessarily mean inflation is receding. Quite to the contrary, the single most powerful driver of price inflation oil and energy is still surging.

And if you think the political spin on other economic numbers is bad, wait till you see the spin on inflation.

* Economists pooh-pooh energy price hikes simply by relegating it to a category of items which are not part of the "core" inflation.

* Both political candidates are virtually silent on the subject.

* And even Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan has been busily trying to convince the world that inflation is not a concern.

The reality: Consumer price inflation this year is still running at an annual rate of between 4 and 5 percent, or up to FOUR times higher than the current level of short-term interest rates. This has multiple implications ...

First, it means that inflation is bound to continue. That's almost invariably what happens when interest rates are far lower than inflation.

Second, interest rates are bound to rise further despite the weakening economy. Indeed, it's not until interest rates catch up with inflation and even exceed it that you're likely to see inflation tamed and interest rates recede significantly.

Third, the dollar is bound to resume its decline. Foreign investors are already looking for the nearest exit door.

Fourth, investments that are driven higher by inflation gold, energy and natural resources should continue to rise.

But no matter what the final outcome, clearly, the battle against price instability either deflation or inflation did not begin under Bush. Nor will it end in the next four years. It is the culmination of decades of money and credit excesses that are just now coming to a head.

Date 19/8/2004 Source AFX-UK Related Stories N/A
Time 17:32





CHICAGO (AFX) -- An already weaker dollar fell in response to a reported
slowdown in the factory-sector expansion for the Philadelphia area. The Philly
Fed's activity index fell to 28.5 in August from 36.1 in July. Despite the
decline, this is the fifteenth month in a row the index has been above zero,
which indicates overall economic expansion, if at a slower rate. Economists were
expecting the index to slip to 31.7 in August. Both the bond and currency
markets were braced for an even lower reading, analysts said. The dollar was up
0.3 percent on the day against the euro, with the euro quoted at $1.2359 in
recent trading. It briefly reached $1.2364 just after the report. The greenback
was off 0.1 percent against the Japanese yen, at 109.32 yen per dollar.
This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see
www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

http://www.celebpoker.com/nick_gaming.html

Indexes Close Change
DJI 10110.10 69.30
S&P 500 1098.35 7.12
S&P 100 536.04 2.94
NSDQ 100 1366.73 13.49
Nasdaq Comp 1838.00 18.20
XAU 95.82 1.80
Dollar IDX 88.09 0.30
Closing prices for 8/20/2004
Futures Close Change
SEP DJI 10110.00 67.00
SEP S&P 1098.70 7.40
SEP NSDQ 1367.50 12.00
SEP Bonds 111^03 -0^03
SEP Dollar 88.23 0.41
DEC Gold 415.50 6.20
SEP Silver 687.0 5.0
SEP Notes 112.72 -0.17
Closing prices for 8/20/2004


Update for Friday, August 20, 2004; 5:25 PM, Eastern.


**********************************************
**********************************************




It was an up week across-the-board for stocks, as the major indexes closed up five out of the past six days. The NASDAQ led the charge, finishing up 4.6 percent for the week, followed by the S&P up 3.1 percent, while the Dow gained 2.9 percent. Of the wide-ranging indicators that we look at each day, the one glaring stat that jumps out at us is the markets volume. It remains anemic. Big Board volume was 1.2 billion shares traded today, 10 percent below the three-month daily average. NASDAQ volume was not much better, totaling 1.32 billion shares traded. A rally with little conviction in the form of volume places the advance firmly in the camp of a bear market rally, which is consistent with our interpretation of the Elliott wave pattern.

The question before us tonight is this: is the bear market rally over? Answer: not yet. My guess is that the major indexes are probably three quarters of the way through the rally, but based on our momentum work, there likely remains further upside potential before a top. First, lets take a look at the pattern.




Todays close of 10,110.10 in the [Dow Industrials] and 1098.35 in the [S&P 500], carries each index to the maximum retracement levels we cited in Monday and Wednesdays Update. Each level represents the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the August 2 high, as seen in the above chart of the Dow. The rally counts well as an upward correction, as each of the major waves since Fridays low has overlapped. And there is even a price relationship between each correction, which is sometimes seen in corrective waves. The pattern was a double zigzag up to
Yesterdays 10,083 high. Todays push above this high turns the pattern into a potential triple zigzag (see EWP, p. 42). Wave a of the third zigzag is nearing completion, which should lead to wave b down and then wave c back up to new recovery highs.




Could todays high be a top, after all prices stopped right at the maximum retracement allowed for? Sure it could, but the odds are not strong. Of the various momentum gauges we constantly examine, from smoothed averages to high-low data, to the percent of stocks above their averages, nearly all are still rising from oversold levels, which does not support a significant top right here. One of the easiest ways to illustrate this for you is to update the above chart from Wednesday showing a very simple Relative Strength index. The index is still rising, having just pushed above the 50% level. Moreover, as we noted at the top of these pages, the NASDAQ indexes led this weeks rally. Typically the higher-beta indexes will be laggards at or near the high, while the blue-chips charge ahead. So even though our maximum retracement levels have not been violated, odds favor that they will be and that a larger bounce is indeed unfolding.




S&P 500 only breadth was positive today, as was NYSE breadth, but as the chart shows, there is now a series of three declining breadth peaks against three higher price highs. Each big up day this week, Monday, Wednesday and Friday, occurred on slightly weaker upside breadth, a sign of a slowing uptrend. While this slowing is not fatal to the advance, it does suggest that a near-term pullback is approaching, likely sometime early next week (possibly after a brief rally Monday morning). It should last a day or so, which will likely coincide with a b wave decline, and lead to another push higher after it completes. Support in the Dow runs from 10,040 to 10,075, while support in the S&P is 1091-1095. As of todays close, the Dow would have to come under 9950 and the S&P under 1080 in order for the odds to significantly increase that the immediately rally is over and another leg down had begun.

The next area of resistance for the S&P is the confluence of the 50- and 200-day moving averages that congregate between Fibonacci resistance. This area is 1103-1113. The approximate equivalent area in the Dow is 10,180-10,250. Odds favor that these areas will be tested prior to a top.




The [NASDAQ] indexes are still a bit shy of their respective maximum retracement levels cited Wednesday, but they should hit them (and in all likelihood exceed them) before the near-term uptrend ends. For the 100 cash index this level is 1386 and for the Composite it is 1863. Similar to the Dows Relative Strength index, the NASDAQs too is still rising and beneath an area that we would expect a top to form. If the broad indexes pullback early next week, the 100 cash index has support in the 1355-1360 area, while the Composite has support at 1822-1830. It would take a close beneath 1335 in the 100 cash index and 1795 in the Composite to increase the odds to probable that the rally from last Friday is over and the near-term bear trend is back on track.

[Bottom Line]: The market remains in a bear market bounce, which does not appear complete. Some time early next week a pullback should develop, but that should be followed by another up leg to new recovery highs (above todays highs). The entire advance is probably three quarter or more complete, but the ultimate high does not appear at hand just yet.






[September Notes] and [September Bonds] remain stalled at their respective 50% and 61.8% retracement levels (see above chart). Bullish sentiment has now carried the 10-day DSI index for bonds to 81.5%, setting the market up for the near-term reversal that we are forecasting. Also note in our second chart displaying the upward momentum of the bond rally, the oscillator is one day away from declining into negative territory, which would be further evidence that a one-to-two point decline is at hand. In addition, commercial hedgers have been moving into a deeper net-short position at an aggressive clip. At the end of June hedgers held 82,350 net long contracts. As of last week they had moved to a net short position of 27,136 contracts, the largest net short position since the wave (2) high on March 24. If notes are able to come under 112^00 (4.32%) and bonds under 110^02 (5.09%), both basis the September contract, it would be a signal that the decline is underway. From a larger perspective, nearly all of the sub-indexes, GNMAs, Junk, Emerging debt, etc remain in short-term up trends, which suggests that there remains some support beneath the rise from the May-June lows. So we cannot say with certainty that our forecasted decline is the start of wave 3 of (3), but we will look for confirming signs as the near-term sell-off progresses.




Todays rally in the [U.S. Dollar Index] was enough to create a bullish weekly key reversal in the index, but just barely. A more forceful signal would have been registered with a wider range this week. Still, the bounce in prices occurred from a low of 87.66, which was just above the trendline support that we have been referencing all week. This trendline crosses through 87.57 on Monday. While it is far too soon to forecast with any degree of conviction that the dollar index is starting the next leg of advance, we can note that bullish sentiment continues to shrink, which is a net positive for our overall bullish view. In order for our conviction to move to the strong category that the next leg of rally has started, the index must rally in a clear impulse pattern that carries above 89.29. Doing so would be a solid bullish sign and indicate that a multi-week rally was underway. We will remain patient until then. The key level for the near-term bullish case remains the 87.00 low of July 19. The index should not come under this low or a more complicated pattern would be unfolding prior to the next leg up in Primary wave 2 (circle).




Since reaching a high of 1.2385 in the early hours of this week, the [Euro] has made no net progress, even pulling back to a low of 1.2281 this morning. Like the dollar, it is much too soon to say that a downward reversal has occurred here. Instead, we continue to remain patient and wait for a clear impulsive decline that draws prices beneath the 1.2178 low of August 13. Doing so would allow us to state with confidence that the next leg down in the larger downtrend was underway. As before, if the Euro pushes above the July 19 high (1.2463) then it means a more complex upward move is unfolding from the April 26 low (1.1761).




The [XAU] rallied above the 91.90 high of July 9, which negates the near-term wave patterns we were discussing. It appears that the advance from the May 10 low (76.79) is tracing out an A-triangle B-C upward correction, but it is not clear how this correction fits into the larger picture. Prices have pushed to a resistance level of 96.00, which may repel the advance. But there is an equal chance that the index will work its way up to the next cluster of resistance in the 98-100 area prior to topping. As soon as our confidence in the XAUs short-term potential returns, we will become more specific in our forecast.






Yesterday [December Gold] closed above $407.10, indicating that prices were on their way back to the $412.50 high of July 8, and just beyond. Todays rally carried the December contract to an intraday high of $416.80, with a close of $415.50. Tonight is a good time to review the scenery for gold so that we are all clear about our forecast. The most important piece of information we know is that the rally from the $375 low (May 10) is NOT an impulse wave. We have no doubts about this. Thus, even though the upward corrective pattern is complex and has carried back up, because it is not an impulse wave it must be completely retraced once it is complete. We know that bullish sentiment remains far closer to a top than a bottom. For instance, the 10-day Daily Sentiment index is at 71.9% bulls, whereas at the May 10 low it was at just 9.7% bulls. The April 1st peak was accompanied by a 10-day DSI of 80.4% and before that the January high occurred against a DSI of 88.3%. We know that commercial hedgers still hold a relatively large net-short position of 78,343 contracts. This is not as large as the record short 196,307 contracts held at the April high, but it is also far from the typical net-long positions held at significant lows. We know that various momentum oscillators are at or near overbought territory, but still rising (see above), which suggests there may be a bit more rally potential left over the coming days. Basis the December contract, the 78.6% retracement of wave (1) down is $423.40 and a chart gap was left at the close of trading on April 12 at $424.20. This range, $423.40-$424.20, is the next resistance cluster. Gold may top earlier, but the upward momentum of the rise suggests we should at least allow for a run toward this resistance cluster prior to a wave (2) top. Closing back under $400 would be the initial signal that the rally top was in.




[September Silver] remains in wave (2) up, which pushed to $7.01 on an intraday basis today. The upward correction is complex, with many various acceptable ways to interpret the near term subdivisions. One way considers the rise from the July 28 low of $6.11 as a fifth wave ending diagonal triangle (see EWP, p. 36). If so, prices should have one more down-up sequence ahead that carries silver closer toward $7.23-$7.26, which includes the 61.8% retracement of the wave (1) decline. The crucial level for this pattern is $6.46, the August 11 low. A break there would negate the ending diagonal and raise the odds considerably that wave (2) up was over.

Have a great weekend!

Next Update: Monday, August 23, 2004
Steven Hochberg, Editor.

That was a bit laaarge, moonie

may be long but he knows his stuff !!!!very professional :-)

its not my stuff mega ..but it saves you a subscription

this is my favorite ..usd sentiment is on the floor ..i really think the will break 181 this week then 175 is the next stop

http://www.elliottwave.com/chartfolder/stu/dxc0820.

still presented well though :-)

mooney am is quite good i think