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Traders Thread Monday 23rd August 2004 (CROC)     

Martini - 22 Aug 2004 11:57

Martini - 22 Aug 2004 11:57 - 2 of 23

Martini - 22 Aug 2004 11:58 - 3 of 23

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What the Sunday Newpapers say
SUNDAY TIMES - Boris Zingarevich, who co-owns one of Russia's largest companies, Pulp Enterprises, is poised to invest 20 million in Everton FC. - Alstom of France emerges as a leading contender to manage the construction of the Royal navy's two new aircraft carriers - Stage Three Music, the song publisher, has received backing of 40 million from Apax Partners, Ingenious Ventures and HSBC to acquire other music catalogues - Blackstone of US in exclusive talks to buy Southern Cross, the private healthcare group, valued at about 175 million - Suppliers try to halt sale of Jacksons Stores to Sainsbury - US hedge fund Polygon builds up 3% stake in DFS Furniture, the subject of a 496 million bid from chairman and founder Lord Kirkham - Kingfield Heath, the country's second-largest wholesale of office products , has put itself up for sale - Easyjet to cut routes and planes in cost-cutting drive - Video Island and Screen Secret, online DVD firms, merge to fend of US invasion - New Star, the fund management group run by John Duffield, is postponing its flotation plan because of unfavourable market conditions - iSoft, involved in a 6 million NHS contract, is seeking an injunction against the Guardian after a leak of confidential information over accounting policies - Executive chairman of Rentokil Initial, Brian McGowan, has won the backing of key investors who have told him he does not need to break up the company - Tesco us speeding up the expansion of its mobile-phone business with a wider range of handsets and a new tariff that will cut the price of calls - HBOS stalks Abbey National in phoney warInside the City: - Hi-tech gaming boost for Hilton Group.Citywire Market Mole: - Chorion is a serious investment opportunity for Jim Slater and his sons Mark and Christopher Agenda: - Under John Varley, Barclays will still be Barclays - Why should we be sending the FSA copies of documents sent to us anonymously about James Middleweek?Other comment: - The FSA is to examine a new dossier of allegations about James Middleweek, the former analyst who sparked a year-long investigation into Collins Stewart Tullett - Amvescap lines up Mark Williamson, James Robertson and John Rogers as possible successor to Charles Brady, the executive chairman - Interview Bob Fuller of 3 - William Morrison's Safeway stores revamp starts by converting staff
SUNDAY TELEGRAPH- Competition probe would see Banco Santander turn its back on Abbey National - Moscow-based Naftasib is believe to have approached the Russian authorities offering to help with the Yukos situation - BUPA considering a 450 million-plus bid for Westminster Healthcare, put up for sale by 3i Group - Gulf Keystone Petroleum, with interests in Algeria, to raise 60 million in a listing - Planet PVC float on AIM will net founder Dean St John 70 million - Yates Group plots 110 million bid for Laurel Pubs GroupEquity View: - Worth tucking away Rexam at 419.5p for the long tem - Keep buying Friends Provident at 130.25p - Sell JJB Sports at 183.25p - Worth tucking away Johnston Group at 503.5p - Buy Peter Hambro Mining at 452p - Pipex remains a buy at 8.25p - Avoid Teather & Greenwood at 32p (Look Who's Trading) Taking Stock with Edmond Jackson: - Should you heed the proliferating profits warnings? Ultraframe, highly speculative - Countrywide, avoid - Castings, hold - Retail Decisions, share ratings need to be adjusted downwards in software sectorBusiness Comment: - Amvescap's American blunder casts a shadow over veteran chairman Charles Brady - Abbey National: HBOS smoking out Santander - British Airways's excess baggageOther comment: - Prudential attempts to resurrect with-profits policies - Hammerson sees an upturn in City office market - UBS suspends top split-capital analyst John Szymanowski pending an inquiry - Pinewood Shepperton set to report profits of about 6.5 million before interest, tax and goodwill - Supermarkets shop for convenience - Profile Trevor Baylis, who is floating his company Trevor Baylis Brands.
OBSERVER  - WPP Group may mount a 500 million rights issue to fund Grey Global deal - DFS Furniture non-executives in threat to quit over Lord Kirkham bid - Brian McGowan back on buying track at Rentokil InitialThrog Street: - Rentokil or cure for Brian McGowan? - Homes no longer hot property for Berkeley Group - Tell Group: let your fingers to the walking awayOther comment: - Hilton Group rakes in 170 million jackpot - British Airways, an airline caught up in turbulent times - Mammon interview Sir Terence Conran
MAIL ON SUNDAY - Advisers line up for 700 million Britvic float following Intercontinental Hotels decision to sell its stake - Venture capital groups will consider bidding for ITV Group if the share prices falls much further - Woolworths to quadruple the size of its Ladybird childrenswear brand - Tarmac considering a bid for Johnston Group to scupper a rival offer from Ennstone - Citywire Secret Dealings: Funds focusing on growth at Easynet.Midas Column: - Buy Lok'nStore at 111.5pUpdate - Hold Lookers and ConnaughtOther comment: - Interview George Kidd of the Independent Committee for the Supervision of Standards of Telephone Information Services - Big bounce at Hilton is set to boost dividend - Pressure on new boss at Rentokil Initial
THE BUSINESS - 3i Group is among a clutch of private equity firms considering a bid for Rentokil Initial - BP has promised to meet the concerns of minority shareholders in its Russian arm TNK-BP when their shares are consolidated into a single holding company in the next six months - North American internet phone company Vonage is preparing an assault on the European telecoms sector and will undercut BT - Shell powers ahead with plan to clear out $15 billion of its assetsBenchmark: - How Sergey Brin and Larry Page bowled themselves a Googley - Collins Stewart Tullett: the Middleweek affair doesn't end here - Retail sales are still growing at an annualised rate of 6.6%Inside the Market: - Technology Investor: Belgacom valuation looks undemanding - Small-Cap Investor: Turbo Genset shares are still speculative - AIM Investor: Buy Peter Hambro MiningOther comment: - Vodafone cheers investors with hopes of increase in dividends - Safeway ex-directors going cool on William Morrison deal - Charlie's Chocolates and Harry Potter boost Pinewood Shepperton profits
SUNDAY EXPRESS - Shell is preparing to unveil a long-term business strategy next month which insiders say will result in disposals and acquisitions - ITV Group has made the first of a series of asset disposals by selling Carlton Brooks to management for around 2.5 million - Guardian Media has put its online recruitment website up for sale - Pinewood Shepperton expected to report 3.5 million profit this week - Jobs threatened at Sainsbury's as chief executive Justin King freezes recruitment - Tesco slashes the price of its back-to-school range - Interview David Mills of the Post Office
INDEPENDENT - Richard Desmond, head of Express Newspapers, in cut price bid to buy out Barclays brothers at West Ferry Printing - Paul Gregg lays down 20 million truce terms at Everton
INVESTORS CHRONICLEDirectors from Hell: - Sportsworld Media (SWD.L) - L Gardner (LGD.L) - Clubhaus (CHA.L) - Arthur Shaw (SAW.L) - Christian Salvesen (SVC.L) - Universal Salvage (UVS.L).Tips: - Buy Woolworths (WLW.L) at 44p - Aquarius Platinum (AQP.L) at 265p - Vanco (VAN.L) at 214p - Connaught (CNT.L) at 464p - Latchways (LTC.L) at 317p - Northern Recruitment (NRG.L) at 161p.Tip Updates: - Buy BAA (BAA.L), Easynet (ESY.L) and Bond International (BDI.L). - Ultraframe (UTF.L) is high enough. - Angus & Ross (AGU.L) is good value.Company results: - Buy Lookers (LOOK.L). - Sell eBookers (EBR.L) and P&O (PO.L).
SHARES MAGAZINEThe Shares Magazine Boomers Portfolio: - Care UK (CUK.L), Carnival (CCL.L), Corin (CRG.L), Gyrus (GYG.L), Huntleigh Technology (HTL.L), Dignity (DTY.L), McCarthy & Stone (MCTY.L) and NHP (NHP.L).Plays of the Week: - Buy Hamworthy (HMY.L) at 132p.Tip Updates: - Sell Earthport (EPO.L). - Buy Melrose Resources (MRS.L).

Martini - 22 Aug 2004 11:58 - 4 of 23

Closing Wrap - Martini

On the 25th of May 2004 I awoke and logged on to watch the Markets opening action and settled down to what I expected to be just another normal day.How wrong I was.CrochappyM.jpg The early morning was slow and by 10 am I was bored and for no real reason it occurred to me that I had not spoken to my friend Crocodile for some time. So I phoned and was surprised to be answered by an unfamiliar voice. It was Davids Father in Law who had not long arrived at Davids house to find he had passed away in the night. As it is at times of great emotion I can see myself even now sat there in shock as I put the phone down not really believing what I had just been told. A phone call to Mike (Bullshare) and soon the shocking truth was confirmed. Later that day thoughts turned to what would happen to the Traders thread which was so much a part of David, he having fronted it both here and on ADVFN for many years.Mike asked me if I would step into the breach and front it for a while. I admit I was at first reluctant. How could I possibly fill those big crocodile shoes? Well obviously I couldnt but as it felt important to me that the Traders Thread, which had so dominated Davids life, should continue I agreed to help out for a few weeks until Mike had time to sort out a more appropriate and permanent replacement. My opening post that night for the 26th of May Traders Thread sums how I felt at the time.

Martini - 25 May'04 - 21:42 - 1 of 405 edit David is no longer with us. Day after day he diligently spent many hours creating the day traders thread. I believe he would have wanted his thread to carry on and whilst I am not able to fill such a gap that his parting has created I am privileged to start todays thread. What better epitaph to David than to keep this thread alive in his memory? Let us make this the best ever day traders thread in his memory. M

As you will see from the 1 of 405 you all rallied round to make it so. Then of course the problem of the Thoughters slot for the weekend came up and yet again many of you have so kindly given freely of your time to pass on your thoughts on the Markets and trading strategies and get the week off to a cracking start. So on I went for these Few Weeks fill in as Mike looked for a replacement. It was never going to be something I could continue, as I dont do routine well but what a problem! Now I have had lots of help in doing this but what it has brought home to me is how much of Davids time went into it and what a commitment it was. And then just when I was getting to think Mike would fail in his quest I heard a bugle call and over the hill came the sixth cavalry in the form of my old friend Alan (Greystone).Perfect - Problem solved! If you have been around the BBs for anytime you will know that Alan has over the years been a respected and observant commentator on the Markets and BB life. From way back on the ESI BB he has been a rock of integrity and a true gentleman. So this ladies and gentlemen will be the last time it will be my honour to start the Traders Thread. Those Few Weeks have turned into 3 months. How time flies. I was sat in the pub this week chatting to a friend and he was asking what I had been up to recently? So I started to explain that I had been fronting a Thread on a financial web site about the Stock Markets for the last 3 months. I told him this was about people who trade the Markets and tried to make money out of it.

He asked So has it been exciting in the Markets then?O yes I said.So how much have they moved? he enquired. After a little thought I said Well I think they are down 1% or so.And thats exciting! he said and went to get another couple of pints in disgust.

Mrange.jpg And he was right in some respects. Anyone tracking the Markets with a broadly based portfolio of shares would think the last 3 months has been a bore as in the last three months the markets had moved down a measly 50 points. But when I went and looked at the last 3 months the Markets have of course moved around considerably more than the 50 points down. The FT100 even looking at the big moves has traded up and down circa 670 points. This ignores the ups and downs both daily and intra day along the way. For the astute trader there have been many opportunities to make money both short and long.

If you go to the fine detail of individual shares then even boring old FT100 shares have been volatile ANL and MKS being obvious examples. Now I know this game is easy in retrospect and anyone catching more than a slice of the right side of that action was doing well - but a boring market no. The circa 10000 posts to the Traders Threads in the Investors/Traders Rooms over the last 3 months is testimony to that.Thank you all for your help and contributions to the Thread. It has been a pleasure and an education to read your posts as you strive to get the better of the greatest game in town Trading the Stock Markets. The joy - The despair. The successes - The failures. The humour and at times sadness have been absorbing. And so today I pass the baton on to a safe pair of hands. I am sure the Thread will change and evolve under Alan and rightly so. One thing that will change is when the new days thread is started. As at times in the mornings I like to lie in (come to think of it most of the time) I get the next days thread started shortly after the US Markets close. With the time difference for Alan in Spain a much more sensible time for him will be early in the morning before the Markets open. So dont go looking for new days Trading Thread until the morning of that trading day.crocbackM.jpg

So thats me finished rambling. But I leave you with a picture that David created that expresses a lot about how he thought of what the future may hold.Croc back to the future. Enjoy the ride Croc as you boldly go. Thank you to Nita (Davids mother) for permission to use the pictures and she asked me to pass on her belated thanks to you all for the many tributes paid to David on the BBs three months ago.

 

 

You were a hard act to follow David - I hope I did you proud my friend. Over to you Alan.Martini

Mega Bucks - 22 Aug 2004 14:52 - 5 of 23

Martini,

A BIG BIG thank you for all your hard work over the last 3 months !!!!!

Mega..

Druid2 - 22 Aug 2004 18:52 - 6 of 23

Mainly a Lurker. Thanks for all your hard work Martini. You've done a great job. I was at Le Touquet last week (stayed at the "Blue Cottage" hotel in the centre) and as I knew Croc. had a property there thought a lot about the good times he and his family must have had there. I had only met him twice but soon realised that he was a great chap. Welcome and good wishes to Alan (Greystone) on the thread.

Jumpin - 22 Aug 2004 19:16 - 7 of 23

Well done on all the hard work Martini

DukeOfMilan - 22 Aug 2004 20:34 - 8 of 23

Martini,
How strange you should choose that phrase to sign off. In the welcome Greystone thread I warned him that you would be a tough act to follow. In the short time I have been here yours is the only thread to be my constant companion. I presume we can at least look forward to seeing your insights posted under the new regime.
Thank you

DOM

jj50 - 22 Aug 2004 20:55 - 9 of 23

Many thanks Martini. You have done a great job! Enjoy the "lie ins" and very best wishes. Jennifer

Fundamentalist - 22 Aug 2004 22:38 - 10 of 23

Martini

Like many others i would like to express my thanks for your efforts over the past few months especially in the light of the preceding events. It must have been very difficult for you initially, so for the great benefit I have had from the thread recently I thank you - you should be very proud of what you have achieved!

Looking forward to seeing if Alan can match up to the demanding standard that has been set!

bush - 22 Aug 2004 22:42 - 11 of 23

thanks for all the hard work and welcome Alan

Mega Bucks - 23 Aug 2004 06:27 - 12 of 23

morning all

long ARM CS but mainly S&P these days


Mega...

Greystone - 23 Aug 2004 06:28 - 13 of 23

Morning all

Big Al - 23 Aug 2004 07:39 - 14 of 23

Morning punters.

EID - distribution rights to Lego Star Wars.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20040823070000ND773.html

WKP - acquires more space.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700011904C.html

ULE - another two contract awards.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700011906C.html
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700031908C.html

KLR - interims hit by currency, but bullish for the year as a whole.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700011920C.html

TYM - Finland seems a popular place to go for diamonds.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700041979C.html

LBT - slip into loss and drop the interim divi.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700041981C.html

BPRG/MIC - replacement for nicotine patches and gums?
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700051989C.html

IOM - "initial" contract with BT.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700072005C.html

BIO - new collabroation.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700072006C.html

SFL - Looking very good indeed. Divi up 20% too.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700092022C.html

LARD - one sale, one acquiisition.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700152052C.html
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230701012053C.html

ARM - acquisition.
http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200408230700152048C.html

I'm long AQP, MNA, MNZS, TIG, short MRS, RST.

Have fun.

jj50 - 23 Aug 2004 07:45 - 15 of 23

Morning all!

little woman - 23 Aug 2004 10:18 - 16 of 23

Morning all,

Thank you Martini, I shall miss your musings etc.... (as I have also missed Davids).

and welcome to Alan (greystoke)

Melnibone - 23 Aug 2004 13:55 - 17 of 23

graph.php?size=Big&startDate=01%2F01%2F0

Afternoon all.
Thanks for keeping this thread going, Martini. It's one of the
friendliest on the web.

I'll be glad when Mam sorts these charts out and stop all these weird
vertical bars appearing. Not a dig, Mam, I know that bugs take time to
iron out when you change stuff. :-)

Ftse is coming up to a defining moment. We're approaching the previous
swing high at 4434. If it takes this out then swing charts turn positive,
Bears take fright as their stops go off, and the top of the range
beckons again.
If it doesn't, then the bounce is over, Bulls take profit and the Bears
return with a vengeance.

Flat, watching the US keenly to see if it takes out key levels and
sets off a snowball effect of Bear stop closing. If it doesn't, on go
the shorts.

Melnibone.

seawallwalker - 23 Aug 2004 14:12 - 18 of 23

Afternoon.

Longs SEY RTO BB. HNR all on the up.

Apart from RTO, which looks like it will be bought out by ??????????????(Thompson and a private equity group???? Well that is my guess anyway!), will pick a spot to take profit on the others hopefully.

As BB. goes ex-div Wednesday need to be a juggler and not drop the ball too early!

Martini - 23 Aug 2004 19:49 - 19 of 23

Thanks for the kind words
Regards
Ge us a job of Oxon

Big Al - 23 Aug 2004 20:49 - 20 of 23

We didn't think you wanted one!

Regards,
Gizza
;-)))

Golddog - 23 Aug 2004 23:28 - 21 of 23

Martini, I have kneeled down and kissed both your feet in respect to your hard work doing the Traders thread. Now please go have a good pint and then have a nice lye down.
ps, your feet smell!
:-)

Douggie - 24 Aug 2004 10:52 - 22 of 23

Martini...'You did him proud'

seawallwalker - 24 Aug 2004 16:33 - 23 of 23

Well, I juggled the ball with BB. +8

Divi is 5.75p

Will see tomorrow if I dropped it too early.

Try to buy in at an opportune moment tomorrow depending on it's direction.

Yesterday I speculated about RTO and what I thought may happen, i.e. a buy out by Thompson and a private equity group.

That came up on Bloomberg today as one of three options, the others being a sell off of parts of the company and money returned to shareholders, which was not liked as the company would be diluted, as would the share price.

The third was to back Mc Govern with his proposals which will be revealed thursday. I will be suitably amazed at his ingenuity as I think the company is stuffed at the moment and it needs the help of a Warlock, IMHO.

My money is still on a Sir Clive Thompson takeover. If that happens, expect Rentokil as a clean up within 4-6 weeks. He built up the company and must have been smarting at the way the board ousted him in the "Night of the Long Knives"

So much thanks for a darn good job. Who needs a boardroom full of of Wets??

Any takeover group would not want fiddling within the company while they are considering a takeover which should move things along.

All IMHO of course, but that is what I have my money on now!!

See what thursday brings.
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